SB Nation - Marvin McNutt

Who are Iowa's playmakers?

BirdGT — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:00:21 -0000

Iowa's got three guys on offense I'm kinda worried about. The primary running back (Robinson), the good wide receiver (McNutt), and the tight end. We seem to struggle against tight ends (we give up ~3 catches/game to tight ends). McNutt and Robinson are the primary offensive weapons on Iowa's team having scored twelve of the team's twenty nine touchdowns. When Iowa needs some points, they look for McNutt and Robinson to produce or at least produce as much as an Iowa offense will allow them. Here's a quick summary of who picks up the yardage and TD's in the Iowa offense:

Looking at the yardage and touchdowns can be slightly misleading. Guys could get a big play and take it to the house on busted coverage. This could skew their overall numbers so I kinda broke it down even further. As far as receivers are concerned, there are three important factors I looked at. First was "looks" or essentially the number of times the QB threw the ball in their direction. Second was "catches" or the number of actual receptions for the player. Third was "success", which adds up all the times he took the ball for a first down or touchdown. I feel like the success rate indicates who we have to look at, from a defensive perspective, as the deep threats or the guys Iowa will go to in the clutch. So, here are Iowa's numbers for success/look, success/catch, and catch/look.

Obviously, success is relative. If the route was designed to pick up 5 yards and not a first down, then it obviously was successful. However, I'm not really factoring that in 'cause that fact is lost forever after the play is called in and actually executed. We're only looking for game breakers not 5 yard out route masters.

GT fans may have noticed that I added Demaryius Thomas to the statistics. He's pretty much on par with Iowa's main threats except in success rate. Thomas takes about 5% more of his catches for first downs or TD's than Iowa's best. So if an Iowa fan says, "You've only got one receiver!" GT fans can reply, "That's all you need when the probability of him succeeding is just as good or better than the whole gaggle of Iowa receivers!" Why fix something that's not broken? Keep throwing to Thomas and he'll keep giving us first downs and touchdowns.

Concerning the running game...Iowa doesn't really have a game breaker. The guys are serviceable. They're very young. GT would struggle with freshmen starting in our system and Iowa's two primary backs are both freshmen and account for over 80% of the carries and all of the rushing touchdowns for Iowa. Iowa is in the bottom of almost every Big 10 rushing category because they've just not had the Shonn Greene or Albert Young to carry the load and bust the occasional big one.

I broke down the running backs into two main statistics. Success rate and fail rate. "Success" means the RB picked up the first down or touchdown on his carry. "Fail" means he didn't gain a yard. I added someone to the graph who will become Iowa's new best friend shortly. Other accounts for QB draws, QB sneaks, backup RB's, and WR reverses.

And really this is Iowa's problem. Their running backs fail to gain a yard ~25% of the time. That's terrible. 80 run plays for Iowa's two main backs have accounted for less than zero yards. I am comparing Dwyer to these two because his position is most similar and his stats are more similar. Our A-backs rushing stats are like wide receiver stats. Also, Jon Dwyer is our worst back concerning plays for negative or zero yardage and he only fails to achieve a yard 10% of the time! That's only 25 plays all year! Awesome. I hope Ferentz is working on Iowa's run blocking during his month off.

As I look at Iowa's offense each day, I wonder how they won any games at all. How do you win 10 games without running the ball effectively? Their defense is either superb or their competitions' offenses were equally terrible.

Iowa Motto: Workers of the world unite!

BirdGT — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Reporter: If you're in a 3rd and 5 situation, who gets the ball 56% of the time? Who gets it the other 34%? (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Browse more photos »

I started pouring over Iowa's play calling yesterday trying to find trends, interesting nuances, and intricate caveats to Ken O'Keefe's offense. I didn't find any. Iowa has the most plain, upfront offense ever. It's incredibly balanced with the pass and run. The quarterbacks distribute the ball evenly to three main wide receivers and a tight end. Two running backs split the load quite effectively. I excluded punts, field goals, dead ball penalties, QB kneels, and penalties that resulted in no play. Here's a look graphically at O'Keefe's play calling based on the down and based on the distance to attain a first down/touchdown:

The two primary running backs for Iowa are Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher. I want to pronounce that WEE-gurr so from here on out pronounce it that way in your head. Iowa fans, feel free to correct me in the comments. Based on the data, neither seems to have really separated himself from the other. Robinson gains about 4.6 yards per carry to Wegher's 3.6. Even though Wegher has more touchdowns, Robinson has a better nose for the yard to gain. Wegher has attained a first down or touchdown on 20.4% of his carries as opposed to Robinson attaining the first or TD 25.7% of the time. The following charts display the distribution of the football (looks) per back and the carries distributed based on yards to gain a first or TD. In both graphs, I mistakenly left wide receiver reverses and QB sneaks in the "Other" category so keep that in mind.

Now, the interesting thing about Iowa's offense, like most NCAA offenses is that passing routes are typically designed to gain a certain amount of yardage not necessarily positive yardage like a run play. The vast majority of routes(e.g. outs, slants, flags, etc.) are designed with the intent to get the ball to one specific spot and the receiver will be tackled immediately. If he breaks a tackle, then that's a bonus. So that's how these graphs following were thought up. I am assuming that most college offenses are 1 to 2 read pass plays so the play is called with the intended receiver in mind.

A breakdown of Iowa's receivers shows three dominant receivers and a tight end catching almost all of the passes (~65%). The main dudes are Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Marvin McNutt, Trey Stross, and Tony Moeaki (TE). The three named dude is henceforth pronounced "cool-EE-anus". McNutt is pretty obvious/funny. Stross = "Straws". Moeaki will be pronounced mow-EE-ah-KEY. McNutt and Moeaki catch the touchdowns. DJK and Stross pick up yardage. Looks include incomplete passes. "Other" in this case includes everyone on the field not named Moeaki, McNutt, DJK, or Stross (may appear high due to stat keepers not keeping accurate track of incompletions). Also, the RB's in the charts are only Robinson/Wegher not backup dudes that see little to no significant PT.

As you can see from all the charts and numbers and stuff, Iowa doesn't care who has the ball in their hands. Robinson has a little bit better grasp of his position than Wegher but he's not an astronomical upgrade. McNutt is the guy to key on in the passing game but he opens things up for Moeaki over the middle and the other two dudes. If Iowa allocates a good chunk of their offense to intermediate passing and really distributes the football, we'll have a tough time defending them.

I think a big key will be limiting Robinson and Wegher on first down. The "effectiveness" of Iowa's offense is predicated on maintaining the run-pass balance. It gives O'Keefe more flexibility in playcalling and keeps pressure off his freshmen RB's. Iowa's in the bottom half of the Big 10 in sacks allowed. And interestingly enough, Iowa has allowed more sacks on third down than any other down; allowing a sack 10% of the time they drop back to pass on third down. Derrick Morgan we need you to play big.

Name of the week: NAME OF THE YEAR EDITION, preliminary round.

Rodger Sherman — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 21:05:51 -0000

DUN-DUN FREAKIN DUN, PEOPLE.

That's right. As you may remember, for the majority of the season, every week I selected the four or five best names from the team Northwestern was playing against and allowed you, the public, to select which you thought was the best name from that team. I'm not talking the best as in the funniest, I'm talking about all-around best. The most magnificient name.

Now, with 12 weeks gone, and nothing for us to talk about, I bring you the 12 champions. The Sippin' on Purple Names of the Week.

And again, I bring these men before you, and I ask you to determine their worth.

Of these 12 (actually 11, we'll get to that), pick your favorite. The top three will advance to a final round of voting with the best name from our opponent in the bowl game, as I optimistically left a slot for a 13th week on my impromptu name plaque (né a sunday night dinner flyer that i took down while putting new ones up), even though at the time, we were 3-1 and 1-1 in conference. Yeah optimism.

Anyway, since that fateful day like two months ago, the plaque sifted to the bottom of my desk, but I just went through the pile, retrieved it, and updated it with the names that have won since. Here is that plaque, as pictured via my iPhone.

Below, you see the poll. After the jump, I have the names listed in chronological order and what I wrote about those names at the time, plus a contextual line or two about how I feel about that name now.

So today, we separate the wheat from the chaff. We separate the Lorenzo Seaberry III's of the world from the Nate Paopao's. If we never went through this stage, those Seaberry's would potentially draw votes away from the Paopao's in the final, and I hope to avoid any Naderization of the potential final result in this poll.

Gentlemen, vote, and vote well.

Towson: Tamba Tongu.

Historic quote: "This is a great name. It's alliterative, and it's got a nice rhythm and a nice flow to it. It just rolls off the tongue (Tongu-e?) very nicely."

What I think now: You have to remember, this was back in the preliminary days of the Name of the Week poll, when there wasn't actually a poll, and the name of the week was embedded in a larger post about Towson football. Tamba's stiffest competition was probably Alex Butt, so, he had an easy ride to victory, but he'll always go down in history as Sippin' on Purple's first. And you always remember your first.

Tamba recorded a special teams tackle against NU, which is more than your average name of the week candidate did, surprisingly, although most got in the game.

Eastern Michigan: Nate Paopao.

Historic quote: "Paopao, who has one of the best football names I've ever heard. Nate is a juco transfer, and thanks to the EMU official pronunciation guide, we can find that his name is pronounced "POW-POW", the only name to get the all-caps treatment. Nate has six siblings, all of whom manage to have better names than him, but I won't drag them into this, because they don't deserve to google themselves only to find that somebody's writing about them on the internet, so, find his roster page to see for yourself.

However, if a member of the Paopao family does read this, let it be known that you have phenomenal taste in naming, and like I said in the last post, this isn't about humorous names as much as it is about classy names that make me want to sip expensive scotch and smoke cigars and discuss how great your family's names are in a well upholstered room with a fireplace. Hope you appreciate. I also hope you download the "Pow!" application for the iPhone, where you punch the air and a cartoon punching sound effect is made, because if you do it twice really fast, it's like your name."

What I think now: I didn't quote it at the time, but I'm reminded of Big L's "Put It On", in which he mentions that "my guns go boom boom/your guns go pow pow", right there in that first verse. One of the stupidest lines by the most clever rapper of all time, but one of his most memorable. (also notable: L keeps a gat in his arm's reach, and charms freaks and bombs geeks from here to Palm Beach.

Syracuse: Van Chew

Historic Quote: "Short and to the point. Neither of Chew's names are actual names. Van is a type of car, and occasionally comes up as an awesome first name (see: Morrison, Wilder), and Chew is something you do to food before digesting it. His full name is Vanzago, which sounds like a type of cheese."

What I think now: I'm still not sure how Van beat out my boy Maximilian Leo, but, you win some, you lose some. Van's definitely got a catchy name, it's not great name material.

Minnesota: Shady Salamon

Historic quote: "This is a ridiculously good name, and it's not even my pick for the week. First off, the guys first name is "Shady". Shady. That's his government name, as far as I can tell. Shady, like, when there's, like, trees over you, or when you're skeezy and people don't trust you. And Salamon sounds like Solomon, which is a first name old timey people had. Therefore, when you combine "Shady" and "Salamon", you get a name that sounds like it belongs to, like, a Mormon drug dealer or a wild west brothel owner. And that's awesome. Shady, a sophomore was a backup RB last year and started two games, totalling 181 yards on 49 carries on the year, but hasn't seen the field yet this year."

What I think now: Shady beat an absolutely STACKED name field that week, which included Logan U'u and Xzavian Brandon. But in retrospect, judging from how enthusiastic I was in this description, he deserved it. And like I posted a few days later, Shady has a pretty impressive life story considering what he's been through, and reading that article immediately made me feel bad about putting his name in my stupid little blog post about good names.

Purdue: Waynelle Gravesande:

Historic quote: "Yeah, Waynelle Gravesande.

First off, it's pronounced "grave-sandy" according to Purdue's media guide. But what I like about this name is that "Waynelle" matches up with "Gravesande" really well, they're both really long, very poetic, and both aren't actual names. If Waynelle weren't a football player, he could totally be a British dude from the 1500's. It's a mad courtly name. It just rolls off the tongue."

What I think now: Waynelle was the first time my candidate in the poll won, and admittedly, he was up against a weak field, as evidenced by the fact that he took 31 of the 36 votes. But it doesn't take away from the mad courtliness I wrote about. He's also the only name that didn't fit in the little box I made for it.

Waynelle returned a punt for nine yards in the NU game, and also drew a fair catch interference penalty costing the Cats 15 yards, the sly bastard. He never fumbled though, making him different from every other Purdue kick returner that day.

Miami (OH): VACANT.

Historic quote: "I've come to the conclusion that there's not a single player on the team which I would be comfortable anointing with the title of Name of the Week. Let's be real: RedHawks' Anthony Shoemaker and Sean Redwine simply don't belong in the same conversation as guys like Nate Paopao, Waynelle Gravesande, and Shady Salamon. And to put them amongst those winners would be a disservice to the trophy. I apologize to any readers who this will disappoint, but it's a decision we need to make. I hope you'll agree with me."

What I think now: Miami of Ohio, you disgust me.

Michigan State: Denzel Drone

Historic quote: "Apparently MSU took Denzel Washington, star of such films as Inside Man, American Gangster, and my personal favorite film of all-time (you think I'm joking, but I'm not) He Got Game, removed his soul, and set him loose as a brainless killing machine. Because this Denzel Drone they have is a defensive end. Be worried, people."

What I think now: FEAR THE DENZEL DRONE. HE'S MERCILESS, REALLY GOOD AT ACTING, AND ATTRACTIVE, IN A REALLY DISTINGUISHED WAY.

He only barely held off TyQuan Hammock in a 22-18 fight for the top spot his week, but I think this is one of those dark horse names that can put up a fight here.

Indiana: Damarlo Belcher.

Historic quote: "It's like you took this guy and this guy (who I played in high school, btdubs), but just made their respectively names better. Damarlo Belcher. Ahhh, yes. Works perfectly. I really see no way I'm not inscribing this name on the chart next week, so, go for it."

What I think now: As I hinted at in the quote, it was a weak name field that week, and Damarlo blew away the competition, winning half the vote. But he's still got an average or above name.

Damarlo did work against NU, catching five passes for 60 yards, one of the more successful NOTW performances.

Penn State: Christian Kuntz

Historic quote: "Look, people, this is a family site. I don't put words that will startle the children in most of my posts, unless I'm quoting someone. So I'm not going to go into the precise details of why someone's last name being Kuntz is tremendously unfortunate for that human being. But I think you all understand why.

Now, think about how humorous it is to have a name like Kuntz. Think about how much more humorous it is that Kuntz's first name denotes the Christianity of said Kuntz. Ahh yes, Christian Kuntz. The most pious Kuntz in all the land. (mark this post down under "posts that will probably come back to haunt me some day later.") Anyway, we're talking about multiple Kuntz, and talking about how much they revere Jesus. This is what your name is. I mean, it's a step up from Rusty, but it's a baby step."

What I think now: Man, this is going to be a hard name to beat. And that's not because it's a great name. In fact, it's far from my favorite of the names here.

But it's a runaway force of humor, and that's going to draw some votes. Everybody I mention Christian Kuntz to laughs. I laughed when I first saw it. The people in the BlackHeartGoldPants podcast laughed. Everybody laughs. I see no way this one doesn't make it into the next round, at the least.

Iowa: Pat Angerer

Historic quote: "An angerer. A person whose job is to anger others. An equivalent name would be Greg Pisseroffer, or Steve Guywhotellsraciallyinsensitivejokestopeopleofthatraceforthesolepurposeofprovokingthemerer. And he's a linebacker. Which is probably the most angering position possible. "

What I think now: I probably overhyped this name, in retrospect, it ain't that great. But it did win the most voted in name of the week poll of all time, just just just just eking past Marvin McNutt 40-39 in the only poll I've had that drew over 100 votes.

Pat, as always, was a beast in the NU game, recording 17 tackles, 13 unassisted, as well as breaking up a pass.

Illinois: Whitney Mercilus

Historic quote: "If my name was Whitney Mercilus, I'd do two things every day: first off, I'd be angry that my name was Whitney, because that's a last name, as evidenced by Eli Whitney, and, well, anybody ever to be named Whitney.

Then, having done that, I'd contemplate showing mercy. But would I? HELL NO. My last name would be pronounced MERCILESS. And therefore, even if all I know about humanity were to dictate that I was in a situation that deserved mercy, you can be sure as all hell that I would not. WHITNEY MERCILUS. A great football name too. Now, if middle name was "The", I would begin to worship him."

What I think now: FELLAS, LISTEN UP. Whitney has my vote this week. His freakin' name is MERCILUS. HOW MUCH DO I HAVE TO STRESS THIS FACT. It's pronounced "merciless." I know this. The Illinois guy said it. Merciless. Jesus.

Whitney recorded two tackles against NU, both of Dan Persa behind the line of scrimmage. Neither were sacks, because they were both on one of those drives where Fitz just sent Dan out to eat up about eight plays by running and not pretending a running back would run it or that he might throw, even though these are both options in a football playbook.

Wisconsin: Prince Moody.

Historic quote: "Therefore, it is my solemn and painful duty to tell you that there will be no name of the week poll. I'm preemptively awarding the regular season's final title to the owner of the far and away best name on the team,Prince Moody.

Surely, there will be some disappointment - especially from the Prince himself, knowing how moody that poor chap is - but I hope we can all agree it's the right thing to do. I hope you respect Prince with the same veneration deserved of all name of the week winners."

What I think now: Well, I had to do what I had to do. It was painful, but there was nobody worthy of polling besides the Prince.

So there you go.

Poll

NAME OF THE YEAR. Pick your favorite from the first 12 weeks of Northwestern's season.

Tamba Tongu

1 votes

Nate Paopao

2 votes

Van Chew

10 votes

Shady Salamon

12 votes

Waynelle Gravesande

7 votes

Denzel Drone

3 votes

Damarlo Belcher

8 votes

Christian Kuntz

20 votes

Pat Angerer

12 votes

Whitney Mercilus

16 votes

Prince Moody

21 votes

112 votes | Poll has closed

All-Big Ten Awards Announced, Swept Once Again By Toto

Oops Pow Surprise — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:00:45 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

about 1 month ago: Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in Iowa City, Iowa. Northwestern won 17-10. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Good news, everyone!* The Big Ten announced its picks for the all-conference teams. Naturally, the offensive and defensive player of the year are both Terrelle Pryor. Okay, not true; he's not even honorable mention.

But there's plenty of actual good news. First, the devil media named Kirk Ferentz coach of the year, and here he is reminding them that they can go suck it and he hasn't forgiven them for the slights of the regular season.

Such language, Kirk!

As for the players, here's the link to the voting results. The media named Bryan Bulaga to the first team on offense, while the second team featured four of his friends from the line: Rafael Eubanks, Dace Richardson, Kyle Calloway, and Tony Moeaki.

On defense, the first team had a little more Iowa representation; Adrian Clayborn, Pat Angerer, and Tyler Sash all received their no-brainer merits. On the second team, Brett Greenwood and Amari Spievey. Iowa put eight players on the media's honorable mention team: Ryan Donahue, Broderick Binns, A.J. Edds, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Karl Klug, Daniel Murray, Adam Robinson, and Ricky Stanzi.

Not surprisingly, the coaches had a slightly higher opinion of the Hawkeyes; here's the link to their voting results. Bryan Bulaga was named their offensive lineman of the year(!!!), an award the media doesn't give out. Bulaga is joined on the first team by Moeaki and Richardson, both of which are worthy selections. Calloway and Eubanks didn't make the second team--not sure why on Calloway--but Derrell Johnson-Koulianos snuck in on a three-player tie for second-team WR.

On defense, the coaches agreed with the media in putting Sash, Clayborn, and Angerer on the first team roster. They also added Amari Spievey; as coaches, they're more likely to know that the reason Spievey didn't have a ton of picks wasn't that he's not good at football, but that there's just no hope in throwing at him; Spievey was a machine this season, and we're starting to lose hope that he's got more than one game left in an Iowa uniform. A.J. Edds is the lone Hawkeye on the defensive second team.

For honorable mention, it's as follows:Christian Ballard, Kyle Calloway, Ryan Donahue, Brent Greenwood, Karl Klug, and Adam Robinson.

Full All-BXI teams and a few thoughts are after the break.

MEDIA

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
QB	Daryll Clark, Penn State	Mike Kafka, Northwestern
RB	Evan Royster, Penn State	Brandon Saine, Ohio State
RB	JOHN CLAY, Wisconsin	Ralph Bolden, Purdue
WR	Tandon Doss, Indiana	Blair White, Michigan State
WR	Keith Smith, Purdue	Zeke Markshausen, Northwestern
C	Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State	Rafael Eubanks, Iowa
G	Justin Boren, Ohio State	Jon Asamoah, Illinois
G	John Moffitt, Wisconsin	Dace Richardson, Iowa
T	Bryan Bulaga, Iowa	Kyle Calloway, Iowa
T	Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin	Dennis Landolt, Penn State
TE	Garrett Graham, Wisconsin	Tony Moeaki, Iowa
PK	Brett Swenson, Michigan State	Stefan Demos, Northwestern

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
DL	Adrian Clayborn, Iowa	Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DL	Brandon Graham, Michigan	Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
DL	Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue	Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
DL	O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin	Jared Odrick, Penn State
LB	Pat Angerer, Iowa	Ross Homan, Ohio State
LB	GREG JONES, Michigan State	Josh Hull, Penn State
LB	Navorro Bowman, Penn State	Sean Lee, Penn State
DB	Tyler Sash, Iowa	Brent Greenwood, Iowa
DB	Donovan Warren, Michigan	Amari Spievey, Iowa
DB	Sherrick McManis, Northwestern	Brad Phillips, Northwestern
DB	Kurt Coleman, Ohio State	David Pender, Purdue
P	Zoltan Mesko, Michigan	Jeremy Boone, Penn State

COACHES

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
QB	Daryll Clark, Penn State	Mike Kafka, Northwestern
RB	Evan Royster, Penn State	Brandon Saine, Ohio State
RB	John Clay, Wisconsin	Ralph Bolden, Purdue
WR	Eric Decker, Minnesota	Tandon Doss, Indiana*
WR	Blair White, Michigan State	Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa* Keith Smith, Purdue*
C	Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State	Rafael Eubanks, Iowa* Joel Nitchman, Michigan State*
G	Dace Richardson, Iowa	Jon Asamoah, Illinois
G	John Moffitt, Wisconsin	Justin Boren, Ohio State
T	Bryan Bulaga, Iowa	Rodger Saffold, Indiana
T	Dennis Landolt, Penn State	Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
TE	Tony Moeaki, Iowa	Garrett Graham, Wisconsin
PK	Brett Swenson, Michigan	Stefan Demos, Northwestern

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
DL	Adrian Clayborn, Iowa	Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DL	Brandon Graham, Michigan	Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
DL	Jared Odrick, Penn State	Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
DL	O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin	Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
LB	Pat Angerer, Iowa Linebacker	A.J. Edds, Iowa
LB	Greg Jones, Michigan State	Ross Homan, Ohio State
LB	Navorro Bowman, Penn State	Sean Lee, Penn State
DB	Tyler Sash, Iowa	Donovan Warren, Michigan*
DB	Amari Spievey, Iowa	Sherrick McManis, Northwestern*
DB	Brad Phillips, Northwestern	Brandon King, Purdue*
DB	Kurt Coleman, Ohio State	David Pender, Purdue* Jay Valai, Wisconsin*
P	Zoltan Mesko, Michigan	Jeremy Boone, Penn State

Okay. While we're quite happy that Bulaga got such high accolades for the season, we can't be alone in thinking that he was hardly the best lineman in Iowa City, much less the Big Ten. He was either on the sidelines or out of sorts for the majority of the season, and we still haven't seen the elephant-tusk-covered road grader from last season on display. He totally would have deserved a preseason OL of the year, but his performance over 2009 didn't merit such superlatives.

This is hardly a new development from these postseason lists, however; generally, the lists are crafted off of the preseason lists, and anybody whose knee blew out with more than four games left was excised and replaced by someone else. After all, Bulaga was only a second-team All-BXI player last season, even though he was by far the best lineman on the team in 2008. Seth Olsen, meanwhile, had the good fortune to be a first-teamer to start the year, so he was on the first team after 2008, despite a relatively blah senior campaign; we'd have put him about fourth on the list of Iowa linemen for 2009, behind the two bookends at tackle and Rob Bruggeman at center.

Essentially, Bulaga won the award in 2009 for his play in 2008.

At the end of the day, this comes down to stats; there aren't any for linemen, despite the ill-fated attempt to get the "pancake" introduced about a decade ago (for this, we blame Orlando Pace). It's assumed that linemen are sure things, and that as long as they stay healthy, the narrative has stayed true. After all, without stats, most scribes have no time (or no idea) how to watch linemen individually.

Frankly, though it's a subjective stat, we'd love to see how linemen grade out per play (remember that Blake Larsen famously graded at 100% during his senior season at Atlantic; lord, had those knees survived...) Without having the means to undertake such an activity ourselves, we'd imagine that if you graded each Iowa offensive lineman, Kyle Calloway or Dace Richardson would probably be at the top.

If they're not, which is possible, then it would probably be the guy who didn't even get an honorable mention: Riley Reiff. He was stout in relief of Bulaga--hell, we're pretty sure O'Brien Schofield would not have batted Reiff around like a catnip mouse, unlike some Iowa linemen--and he basically forced his way into the starting lineup even before Big Dace went down. But since he wasn't even a projected starter, to say nothing of a preseason honoree, Reiff didn't have much of a chance for postseason mention. Shame, really; dude is legit, and he hasn't even filled out his frame yet.

As for the skill players, it's a little disappointing that Stanzi only made one honorable mention team. But we get how that can happen. Spievey only making second team in the media is flatly ridiculous. If he'd put together that same season in an Ohio State uniform, he'd be getting All-American talk.

Other than that, we don't have a ton of beef; Stanzi killed himself by leading the conference in interceptions when he went down to injury, and the rest of the offensive skill players were far too inconsistent or hurt to merit much consideration. Jeremiha Hunter not getting any honorable mention love is a little disconcerting, but the BXI was lo-ho-hoaded at linebacker this season; we're not quite sure whom we'd place him above. He'll get some love in 2010 if he stays healthy. Also--given the play of Jeff Tarpinian in relief--if Hunter stays healthy between now and next September, there's no position battle at weakside backer next season, right?

So, all in all, a fair list, even if the voting on offensive linemen is basically a year behind schedule. It's a year behind for everyone else, after all. Anybody else that you folks think got shafted? Did Marvin McNutt deserve a nod, or is he still a year away from recognition?

*/Farnsworth'd

Not the 12-0 We Wanted Most, But a 12-0 We'll Gladly Take

Oops Pow Surprise — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:05:29 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

WHO WANTS STEEL RIBS OR STEEL HAM? (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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So. A month ago, if you'd been told that "12-0" was happening today, you'd probably be getting all giddy and buying a ticket for Pasadena. Of course, that 12-0 didn't come to fruition, on account of the Stanzageddon and all, but we do have the next best thing: Iowa 12, Minnesota 0.

Was it ugly? Christ yes, it was ugly; Iowa was 1-12 on 3rd down conversions, and theirs wasn't even the ugliest offense of the game.

Minnesota's offense, on the other hand, was one of the worst we've seen all season long. The two Minnesota quarterbacks - Adam Weber and MarQueis Gray - combined to go 14-42 through the air for 153 yards and one interception. That's an average of 3.6 yards per attempt, which is melt-your-retinas ugly. Oh, and Weber lost two of his three fumbles. Yes, Minnesota accounted for more yards than Iowa--201 to 171--but they needed 18 more plays to do so, meaning Iowa's own train wreck of an offense was at least more efficient. Sort of.

As for that Iowa offense, what's there to say? They clearly missed Adam Robinson's running ability when he went down with a re-injury of his ankle; he should be back in plenty of time for the bowl, so no real harm done here. But Brandon Wegher, from Dakota Dunes, South Dakota, one of the great town names in America (/Musberger'd), is really not an every-down back yet, and has no business trying to fill that role right now. That's not to say he's a bust or anything nearly as dour; it's just that there's a reason why, if all the tailbacks were healthy, he'd be about 4th or 5th string right now (Jewel Hampton, Robinson, Jeff Brinson, and maybe Paki Bomb). He's just a true freshman. Most true freshmen aren't ready to run the rock 25 times in a game--especially when they're evidently so green with the playbook that they're telegraphing every run play before the snap.

In fact, if this game proved anything, it's that injuries have wrecked any hope or semblance of consistency for the Iowa offense; James Vandenberg was the 20th different player to start on offense for Iowa this season. For the Iowa defense? 15--and two of those extra four starters were at the same position (Greg Castillo and Willie Lowe, for Shaun Prater at LCB). That's remarkably important; continuity is a big deal in a team sport like football, and as much as Kirk Ferentz and his staff preach the importance of the "next man in," with the notable exception of Riley Reiff, there's always been a marked dropoff in performance from starter to backup.

Thus, getting healthy for the bowl game and getting the best possible lineup (Bulaga, Dace Richardson, Rafael Eubanks, Reiff, and Kyle Calloway on the line; A-Rob and Brett Morse in the backfield; Trey Stross, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, and Tony Moeaki as receivers) would be a welcome development for the offense. How many times has that ideal lineup been healthy and starting all at once? Twice: at Wisconsin and about the first 10 minutes of at Michigan State.

And let's not even get started on losing Hampton and Brinson before the season.

Yes, the above lineup is pretty unimpeachably Iowa's best; while Marvin McNutt is obviously talented, he's done his best as the third receiver instead of starting at wideout--think back to Mo Brown in 2002, for example. Unless something bad happens in practice between now and the bowl game, the Iowa offense is going to look a lot better, and it'll be independent of the playcalling (which always looks a lot better when the players can reliably execute it).

As for the defense, they were utterly lights-out; Weber was harassed throughout the day, and it's to his credit that he was "only" sacked five times. The Iowa defensive line combined for 7.0 TFL and 4 of the 5 sacks, and they abused the offensive line so thoroughly that Bob Griese was left questioning everything about the Gopher unit and their commitment to the sport. That was nice.

Really, this was as vintage a 2009 Iowa game as any this season. The offense struggled through injuries to key contributors but put up enough points to take a double-digit lead, and the defense choked the opposing offense to death long before the final whistle sounded. It's never been pretty, but at the end of the day, you cannot argue with this: it's another 10-win season for Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes. Well done, men. Well done indeed.

Now let's go cook up some steel bacon for dinner.

The Last Gopher Friday Preview Until Pizza Pizza? Minnesota at Iowa, November 21, 2009

JG2112 — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:15:14 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

I knew life wouldn't be good once I got kicked out of the Institute of Technology.

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Give me or Tressel the Patriots. We would have punted on third down. 10:06 AM Nov 17th from TweetDeck
- from the "Not Kirk Ferentz" Twitter stream - http://twitter.com/NotKirkFerentz

Saturday is the end of the college football year, for all intents and purposes. outside of some rivalry games and conference title games. Then onto the bowls. Really, other than Florida/Alabama and Texas (or maybe TCU?) , the 66 or so bowl participants will be taking part in exhibition games in late December and early January in mostly warm climates, of which the most impressive part of the experience is usually the gifts given to the student-athletes that somehow are allowed under NCAA rules (example: last year each Gopher got a Vizio 26-inch LCD HDTV, a Bulova watch, and a Hat at the Insight Bowl.) Besides the gifts, ask Corey Wootton, Willis McGahee or Glen Mason: only bad things really happen in bowl games for the participants.

But back to tomorrow, when Tim Brewster will try for a significant milestone - his first rivalry game win. Last week Brew got his first win in November as a college coach. This week, a Big Ten win in November will increase his record in rivalry games to a robust 1-7. This comes on the heels of Maturi's weird comments to Sid in Thursday's Star Tribune, which indicated an endorsement of the program's direction but a peculiar non-endorsement of the coach. And while we can be literal and say that the only way that Brewster's job comes under fire is if they lose the next two games by 100 in the aggregate, the fact it's even being suggested is foolish in my opinion, but could be suggestive of things going on at Fort Bierman.

Iowa enters this game having endured a rough November thus far. First off, Northwestern put paid to Iowa's national championship hopes in Kinnick, and then Kirk Ferentz's lack of backbone gave away the outright Big Ten Title to Ohio State (pending their beatdown of Michigan). Oh yeah, Minnesota won't be the beneficiary of any Stanzi-balls on Saturday, either.

That really is unfortunate, because the backup QB, freshman James Vandenberg, played rather well in the Horseshoe, completing 20/33 for 233 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs (one at the end of the 1st half, one in OT). Playing in front of friendly fans may make him more relaxed. Then again, the pressure of Senior Day and the Pig may make him channel his inner Stanzi and get acquainted with BIG PLAYE TRAYE.

Looking at the rest of the offense, you know what you're getting with Iowa. The big hogs up front are interchangeable and generally awesome. LT Brian Bulaga is the standout. The Hawkeyes like running stretch plays where a TE (normally Tony Moeaki) will go in motion to Bulaga's side, and whichever RB is in the game (Adam Robinson, Brandon Wegher, Paki O'Meara) will plow behind those two for big chunks of yardage. As has been the case this year, Minnesota's DTs need to keep Iowa's line occupied so Campbell, Triplett, Lawrence and/or Cooper can flow to the ball, attack the lead blocker, and cut the play back for the help to arrive. If the D-line is pushed around and Iowa's line can get to the second level, this game will get ugly.

That's without mentioning Iowa's passing game, which as mentioned above, went for over 230 yards on Ohio State last week. Marvin McNutt is a former QB with significant height (please grow six inches Carter kthx) and superb speed, and I think every Minnesota fan knows about Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. Simmons (who returned to practice Wednesday after recovering from a leg ailment) and Marcus Sherels are carrying injuries which may make them vulnerable in pass coverage.

As for Iowa's defense, yikes. On the line, meet 2007 Cretin Derham Hall grad Broderick Binns (7 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks), along with Adrian Clayborn (8.5 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss and THAT punt block against Penn State) and Karl Klug. The linebackers include A.J. Edds (65 tackles), Pat Angerer (119 tackles) and Jeremiah Hunter (83 tackles), and if you look to the secondary, meet Tyler Sash (6 INTs, 76 tackles), Amari Spievey, and Brett Greenwood.

This is the kind of defense that will give the Gopher offense fits (namely, competent and well-drilled). Iowa rarely sends its linebackers on blitzes because the front four can get pressure by itself. In almost every Gopher game this year we've watched this happen, so I'm even more concerned about tomorrow's game. Other than against Sparty, the Gophers, since the Penn State game, have had horrific pass protection which has led to Adam Weber looking like a true freshman in the pocket.

And sorry everyone, but this isn't the game to fully let MarQueis Gray loose on the football world. Brewster had his chance last week and decided not to, which suggests either coaching stubbornness or player incapabilities at this point. Gray, at this point in his development, would have been most effective against a team with slower defensive players who were frequently blitzing him and leaving him wide open running lanes, such as on November 14th at TCF. The last place you want Gray deciphering coverages is against a Norm Parker-drilled defense of veteran players, whose LBs don't even need to blitz you to get pressure.

So tomorrow you can expect Weber to be in the pocket, with lots of max protect (TEs and RBs) to provide support for Alford, Wills and Carufel in the hopes that Weber is given more than 3 seconds to wait for his WRs to break free from what are excellent Herkeye defensive backs. Once again, Hoese and Tow-Arnett will likely be utilized extensively in the passing game, trying to break the tackles of those excellent LBs. Blergh.

Oh, and have I mentioned that Brandon Green missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury and is questionable for Saturday? Calling Messrs. McKnight, Stoudermire, and yes, Carpenter, please be ready for action.

Anything else? Yeah. The forecast Saturday: around 55 and sunny.

Also, an aside: yeah, I recognize this is a conspiracy theory, BUT. The slate of games on Saturday is one of the least attractive collection of games I can ever remember this late in the season (thanks Florida and Alabama, among others, for scheduling soup cans this weekend). One of ESPN/ABC's featured games is Kansas at Texas.

Anyone else find it uniquely coincidental that ESPN is releasing an amazing slow drip of information from multiple sources (where have these former players been since August?) about Kansas HC Mark Mangino's bad temper and abuse at practice the same week it needs to drum up interest in a rather lackluster prime time game? At all?

Okay.

So what about Saturday? Minnesota has a chance here. It needs to attack Iowa's defense straight-on, because it can be run on. Weber cannot expect to spend much time, if any, looking in the pocket, and Fisch should not abandon the running game and put Weber into obvious passing situations.

As for Minnesota on defense, they need to roll support over to whoever is guarding the tall McNutt. Of course, this leaves the Gophers susceptible to either Johnson-Koulianos or Moeaki, but, you've got to try something.

Bottom line: games this year in Iowa City have been close. Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Michigan, Indiana and NW were really all very tense, close games. Saturday SHOULD be no different. If the Gophers are not competitive, however, I guess Maturi will be having a discussion with Mr. Brewster about what is expected when the Gophers get their new TVs in Arizona. I don't see it happening.

Iowa 27 - Minnesota 20.

Two Years Ago Today...

RossWB — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:07:59 -0000

Worst. Senior Day. Ever.

Funny how much can change in just two years. Two years ago today the Iowa football team suffered arguably its worst -- or most humiliating, at least -- defeat of the last decade. Oh, there have been more lopsided defeats and there have probably even been defeats to teams worse than the 2007 Western Michigan Broncos (who were a pretty middling outfit). Many of those defeats happened during the formative years of Kirk Ferentz's tenure, when his Iowa teams played hard but frequently lacked talent and/or experience. Or they happened against bitter in-state rivals or hyper-motivated conference rivals, so it was easy to rationalize the loss by saying "they wanted it more."

But the November 17, 2007 loss to Western Michigan didn't fit any of those easy categories. It was far from the most talented or most experienced squads of the Ferentz Era, but it wasn't completely lacking in those departments, either. It featured Albert Young and Damian Sims, who had been a dynamite combination in years past. The defensive front seven was pretty well-stocked with talent and experience, too, between Kenny Iwebema, Mitch King, Matt Kroul, Bryan Mattison, Mike Klinkenborg, and Mike Humpal. It wasn't as if the team had nothing to play for, either -- beyond the standard pride of Senior Day, they needed one more win to ensure themselves a trip to a bowl game (Western Michigan didn't even have that to play for; they were just acting as spoilers).

Defeat and misery that week wasn't exclusive to the action on the field, either. The week of November 17, 2007 also saw the first news reports of a sexual assault involving Cedric Everson and Abe Satterfield. Eight months later those reports would explode into a nightmarish scandal that threatened to paint Kirk Ferentz, the athletic department, and the University of Iowa administration as badly negligent and aloof at best and guilty of conspiracy and obstruction of justice at worst; it made Iowa football the leading example of "Programs Gone Wild." That was two years ago.

Today, it seems like a lifetime ago. On the field, Iowa went from a team that was pushed around by Western Michigan to a team that was a play or two away from beating Ohio State in Columbus, winning the Big Ten title, and going to the Rose Bowl for the first time in nearly two decades. That's a pretty remarkable transformation. (The fact that they did it with a team that was ravaged by injuries and missing most of its offensive leaders is even more astounding.) Could you have ever envisioned such a quick turnaround? Many of the guys who have emerged as leaders and key performers on this team were blooded in the painful slog of 2007, like Adrian Clayborn, Christian Ballard, A.J. Edds, and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. The transformation of DJK is a great example of Iowa's turnaround in general. My enduring memory of him from the Western Michigan game is of him seemingly quitting on a play and talking to some fans in the end zone while a Bronco defensive back was running back an interception. My enduring memories of him from the Ohio State game will be of multiple clutch catches and, of course, of the rally-igniting 99-yard kickoff return in the fourth quarter when hope was slipping away. He's gone from a talented but raw and sometimes immature talent to an extremely reliable target in the passing game and an explosive playmaker in general.

Yes, he's totally checking out his runback on the Jumbotron.

But many of the top performers in 2009 would have never been predicted back in 2007. Pat Angerer, arguably the heart and soul of the 2009 defense, nearly quit football in 2007 after dealing with a serious of injuries and illnesses. Amari Spievey, one of the best cornerbacks in the conference in 2009, had washed out of Iowa in 2007 thanks to an inability to go to class. Brett Greenwood was, well, EPIC GREENWOOD back then; now he's a guy everyone was relieved to see take the field against the Buckeyes. The other defensive secondary spots were manned by the much-maligned Harold Dalton and the combination of Adam Shada (victim of the third indignity suffered by the Iowa football team that day/week, which was the betrayal of the Iowa fanbase as expressed through the boos directed at him) and Bradley Fletcher (who was burned more than a charcoal briquette back then) and there didn't seem to be much hope of better players in the program if they were the best we could send out there. (A year later, of course, Dalton was quickly replaced by Tyler "Motherfucking" Sash and Fletcher transformed himself into an NFL draft pick.)

Offensively, Iowa went from having one of the worst offenses in football in 2007 to having... well, a more timely offense, at least. Statistically, it's still not very good in most respects, but the ability of the 2009 Iowa team to come through in the clutch is almost unprecedented among other Ferentz Era teams. The 2007 team lost a pair of games in the fourth quarter (at Wisconsin and at Iowa State); the 2009 team has come from behind in the fourth quarter in four of its wins this year (and came from behind to send the game OT last weekend). A few of the faces remain the same from 2007 -- DJK, Tony Moeaki, Bryan Bulaga, Rafael Eubanks (to name a few) -- but experience and maturity have improved their performances tremendously.

Marvin McNutt owns the slant route and don't you ever forget it.

Since that loss to Western Michigan, Iowa has gone 18-6. That run has included a pair of upset wins over top-five teams (Penn State, twice), a program-best 9-0 start this year, wins over every Big Ten team but three (Ohio State, Illinois, and -ugh- Northwestern), a rare win over Iowa State in Ames, a 55-0 demolition of Minnesota in the final Gopher game ever played in the Metrodome, a dominant Outback Bowl victory, and perhaps more come-from-behind wins than in all the other years of the Ferentz Era combined. And while all six of those losses have been painful in their own way, there's something to be said of the competitive spirit that's been on display in all of them as well. The 2007 Western Michigan game was the fourth game that year that Iowa lost by nine or more points -- none of the six subsequent losses have been by more than seven points.

The journey of 2009 is far from over -- a 10-win season is still in our grasp, there's some Gophers to destroy, a big bronze pig to keep, and a bowl game somewhere warm to win -- but on this day, the anniversary of one of the darkest and most depressing moments in recent Iowa football history, it's worth taking a moment to stop and think about how far we've already come in such a short period of time. The pain of losing the de facto Big Ten Championship Game to Ohio State stings, but it feels a hell of a lot better than the ache of losing to Western Michigan and being lost in the college football wilderness.

Kenny bled to get that pig back, man. Floyd is ours, dammit.

hate hate hate hate hate. (writing edition)

Rodger Sherman — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:36:55 -0000

First thangs first: check out Chadnudj's post about who's gotta win this week and who's gotta lose this week. It's good stuff, and if you didn't notice it, it's over on the right side of the page over there. (that's where stuff you guys post goes. I can also make it go on the front page, but I kept chad's over there because it makes it look like I have readers when there are posts over there.)

Anyway, I sat down with interviewed sent a few questions via email to Ross from Black Heart Gold Pants to follow up on the podcast I did over there (go listen, if you got a half-hour or so to kill today), and he was kind enough to repond in great length:

Describe your hate for Northwestern, 50 words or less.

-- I hate them for beating Iowa three of the past four years, especially for providing one of my saddest Legendary Historic Kinnick Stadium experiences ever in 2006. I hate them because my brother went there, so it's a family thing. And I hate them for wearing purple, because losing to a bunch of Grimace-looking motherfuckers is depressing.

When you looked at the season, did you see "9-0?" When you look at the games you've played, do you have any idea how you're 9-0?

-- I saw "9-0" if I got good and drunk before doing some prognosticating, but that's about it. Between the brutal road schedule and the uncertainty at running back, center, defensive tackle, and left cornerback, I was fairly certain we'd run into a pothole or three somewhere along the way. I could try and explain how they're 9-0 in a way that used facts (like turnover margin and pass efficiency defense) or trite cliches (like the fact this team never quits or that they're quintessential hard-working grinder-types)... but those still wouldn't exactly be satisfying.

The honest truth is that this season has been (to this point) an almost ideal confluence of good talent, hard work, and, yes, luck. If you look at the season-defining plays Iowa has had this year, they all fit that description. The coaches recognize a weakness in Penn State's punt coverage team which allows Clayborn to steamroll a guy two-thirds his size and block a punt -- that's skill plus hard work. Being able to have the blocked punt bounce perfectly into Clayborn's arms while he's perfectly in stride -- well that's a bit of luck. McNutt recognizes that he can beat the Michigan State corner on an inside slant, the coaches trust him, the execution is flawless -- once again, skill plus hard work pays off. (That particular play probably involved the least amount of luck of any of these plays, but there were lucky breaks earlier in the drive/game, so we'll call it a wash.) The coaches call a blitz on third and goal, down 21-7 against Indiana (despite the fact that a blitz call in a similar spot in the first half led to a touchdown), the execution is again perfect, as the line and AJ Edds are able to pressure Ben Chappell into rushing his throw, which winds up taking a series of crazy caroms (enter: luck) off four players and lands in the arms of Tyler Sash; and thus the legend of the Pinball Pick Six is born. And so on. Only a fool would argue that this Iowa team hasn't gotten some very advantageous breaks this season, but only a truly ignorant observer would ignore the fact that this Iowa team has also had skilled players well-coached to be in the right positions to maximize the value of those lucky breaks.

The rest, after that jump.

Should opposing teams be scared about Iowa's offense, and if not, does it matter?

-- They should be scared of them for the roughly one quarter a game when they actually click. It would be nice if everything would click for more than one quarter, but consistency isn't really Iowa's thing this year. They have a decent amount of talent on offense -- they just rarely seem to all be on the same page. Anyone who's watched Iowa this year knows that when Ricky Stanzi is "on," he can be very good -- rifling in beautiful deep balls or hitting receivers in perfect stride to set up long runs after the catch; likewise, anyone who's watched Iowa this year also knows that when Ricky Stanzi is "off," he can be very very bad -- throwing some of the absolute worst and most indefensible interceptions imaginable by a major college quarterback. Both Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt have shown flashes of being sure-handed big play receivers; McNutt already has two of the most memorable touchdown catches in recent Iowa history and DJK always seems to make a big catch or three to get a first down during a game. That said, neither guy is all that consistent yet (particularly McNutt, who is still learning he ins and outs of the position). When healthy (a massive caveat in this case), Tony Moeaki is arguably the most talented and most complete tight end in terms of receiving ability and blocking ability in the Big Ten. And Brandon Wegher has been a surprisingly tough and quick-learning running back for a true freshman. So there are good players on the offense -- they just don't always seem to mesh in a way that leads to a consistent, powerful offense.

And it matters to the extent that if this is the mythical game when the offense actually does put it all together, then Northwestern is probably screwed. The defense has been doing its usual brilliant job of stifling opposing offenses, which might make it difficult for Northwestern's offense to keep up the pace if the Iowa offense is (unexpectedly) consistent and explosive. On the other hand, even if this is yet another stop-and-start day by the offense, the defense and special teams have done an incredible job of this year of keeping games close and, when necessary, breaking big plays and scoring points on their own.

Prediction for Saturday? Anything you say can and will be jinxed against you.

-- As much as I would love to see a repeat of the 62-10 massacre from 2002 (the closest I've ever seen an Iowa team come to pure offensive perfection), I fully realize that that is a pipe dream with this offense. Unless one side has a staggering number of turnovers, I think this will be yet another close, hard fought battle for Iowa. Iowa pulls away a little bit late to make this one a bit more comfortable than the last few heart-stoppers. 27-13, Iowa.

(yeah, that's a jinx.)

There's A Game On Saturday? Jonesin' for Indiana

Oops Pow Surprise — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 06:14:57 -0000

(If this guy beats us, we will give up on watching football. Or at least want to.)

Seems odd, but we've actually got a Big Ten home game this weekend. It's only Iowa's second in the last five games, which just screams conspiracy (hush that three of our last four are at home hush hush). You might think "home vs. mediocre opponent" = "big time win," but we should point out that Iowa's three biggest wins (ISU, PSU, Wisconsin) have come on the road. Okay, Arizona's tied for third; you get the point.

All of which is to say just because this is a game against a lightly-regarded team doesn't really seem to, well, matter to Iowa. All indications are that the Hawkeyes should roll--hell, a 17.5 spread for Iowa is like a 90-point spread for normal teams--but usually when Iowa's supposed to walk to victory, it ends up being a 60-minute nailbiter and we all end up feeling just dirty.

So let's see how dirty we'll feel tomorrow, shall we?

With Iowa on offense

This would be as good a proposition as any for Iowa this season--Indiana's defense is comprised of Jammie Kirlew, Greg Middleton, and the Chicago's starting nine from 1969. Ron Santo doesn't have any legs, so they put him at defensive tackle. They're bad.

Oh, but then Dace Richardson had to get struck by lightning once again, and Adam Robinson's ankle appears to have a javelin sticking out of it. And look, no offense to Brandon Wegher, but these last four games:

10/3 Arkansas State W 24-21 11 49 4.5 19 0 2 12 6.0 8 0 0 0

10/10 Michigan W 30-28 13 21 1.6 7 1 2 12 6.0 9 0 0 0

10/17 @Wisconsin W 20-10 11 1 0.1 5 0 2 19 9.5 16 0 0 0

10/24 @Michigan State W 15-13 6 30 5.0 11 0 1 23 23.0 23 0 0 0

...have not been particularly impressive or confidence-inspiring.

As we've mentioned before, though, Wegher has a curious knack for being tackled right as he touches the ball, something that almost no tailback would be able to overcome en route to a productive outcome. Meanwhile, if Wegher ever gets the ball in space (screen, draw, the rare well-blocked run), he's more than competent.

That makes us wonder one thing: is Iowa inadvertently tipping the run when Wegher's in the game? Whether it's a matter of a smaller playbook for Wegher or something in the way he lines up, whatever. It would take far more intensive tape study than we're about to do, of course, but we can't think of any other reason why Wegher would have a tackler waiting for him right at the handoff while Robinson faces the "normal" amount of heat from the defensive front. It's not that Wegher's a bad runner when he's in space or that he's making the wrong cut; he normally just doesn't have a prayer of even getting to that first cut.

The good news is that if Iowa can keep Middleton and Kirlew off Wegher 90% of the time, White Lightning has a good chance at a big day. He's a hell of a runner once he gets going, and you may see some flares to the flats just to get him in workable one-on-one situations with a cornerback or linebacker in space. Better than a handoff for a loss of two.

Alternatively, KOK can just say "the hell with it" and just start chucking it deep 50 times. After all, Indiana's down to about two healthy bodies at safety, and they seem to take a horseshoes-and-hand-grenades approach to pass coverage: if they're close to the target, that's probably as good as you can expect. Meanwhile, the Unholy Trinity of Trey Stross, DJK, and Marvin McNutt is looking as good as ever. No stupid passes, s'il vout plait, Monsieur Stanzi, but there's potential for serious productivity there.

Then again, last time we said that, Stanzi had 78 yards of passing with 90 seconds left in the game and a 13-9 deficit. So, yeah.

With Indiana on offense

Ben Chappell isn't bad, which is really weird to say, because Ben Chappell used to be bad. He's no Kellen Lewis, of course, and he's better than 2008 Ben Chappell - that guy got utterly bitchmade by Iowa in Bloomington last season. Bitchmade in Bloomington? Like a sequel to Sleepless in Seattle? Meg Ryan can play Chappell, of course.

They're going to have to get creative and force Iowa into exploitable matchups on the outside, though, because we're really at a loss trying to figure out how Indiana's going to put together a sufficient rushing attack to make the linebackers' lives uncomfortable. The Hoosiers aren't usually that bad on offense--they've got perhaps the most underrated line in the BXI--but too many of their points have come on the big play, which is a far less reliable engine of productivity than the good, old-fashioned 10-play drive.

The Hoosiers' weapon of choice on the ground is Darius Willis; whatever. He's averaging well over five yards a carry, but hold on there kids; we may have some outliers. Indeed, Willis has a 70-yard TD and 85-yard TD to his credit; take those away, and Willis has just 250 yards on 75 carries. 3.33 ypc, if you were curious. Yes, the big runs are part of his game too, but let's not pretend Willis is a clock-chewing big back giving the offense 2nd and medium all game long. He's a home run back, and one who hasn't rushed more than 16 points in a single game. He can be shut down with relative ease.

Prediction

Chappell and the passing offense should be mildly competent; any time you get an experienced quarterback with a decent line, the proverbial bitchmaking becomes less and less likely. So as nice as a shutout sounds, it's unlikely.

Still, this has the potential to be one of the Iowa defense's shining moments of the season. If Chapell doesn't throw at least two interceptions (one of which won't be his fault), we'll be surprised; we don't see the talent necessary for a big enough game through the air to seriously threaten Iowa.

That said, with Richardson and Robinson in the lineup, this would be an excellent opportunity for the Iowa offense to get back on track. They're not in the lineup, so we're back to dealing with backups and unknown quantities. More concisely: bet the under bet the under bet the under.

We're calling this 23-9 right now; we could probably see Iowa's score anywhere from about 16 to 40, depending on how effectively Stanzi can attack that secondary, and we could probably see Indiana scoring anywhere from 0 to 24. That 24 would likely come with some garbage points; we don't think Indiana gets into the end zone three times against an Iowa defense that's actually trying for all 60 minutes.

Look: this is a game that a real #4 team, tailback or no, wins by a substantial margin. They're at home, Indiana has holes on both sides of the ball, and the defense is absolutely humming right now.

Then again, we said Iowa rolls against MSU and A-State and loses to Wisconsin, so we clearly know nothing. Plan accordingly, and we'll see you Saturday morning. You're bringing the Bloody Marys, right? Dude, it's your turn. You do it.

A Consolidated Friday Preview of Minnesota Meh - Hockey v. Alaska-Anchorage, Football v. Sparty.

JG2112 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:00:38 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

SPARTY NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Browse more photos »

Let's get hockey out of the way first. Lucia has a mess to figure out (three shutouts, and three losses and a tie in four games so far) and he needs to do it quick before the season spins out of control. The Seawolves provide a nice opportunity to right the ship. Here's a preview from Gopher Puck Live. If things develop this weekend in the rare Friday - Sunday series and warrant a review, you'll get one here.

Now, football. The Michigan State Spartans are coming to town. Gopher Nation talked with The Only Colors yesterday about some aspects of the game tomorrow. It's a critical game for both teams, and it's obviously Sparty's first trip to TCF. It's also another opportunity for Sparty to have a SPARTY NOOOOOOOOO moment.

Don't know what I'm talking about? If any fan base can relate to the SPARTY NOOOOOOOO moment, it's Minnesota. It's the combination of coaching, player, and scheme meltdowns that lead to a ridiculous late-game loss. Sparty has had this happen in comical ways over the years - obviously, having goofs like Bobby Williams and John L. Smith as your coach lead to comedy (on that note, can you believe Nick Saban once coached there?). For a good example, think the 2006 Notre Dame - Sparty game. Sparty surrendered a 37-21 fourth quarter lead in a pouring rainstorm. At home. Good fun - watch it here.

Sparty is having one heck of a run of SPARTY NOOOOOOOO moments this year, though. Take your pick as to which one is the best. Was it against Central Michigan, where the Chippewas recovered an onside kick and got to rekick their last-second field goal after Sparty was offside on a block, shocking the Spartans at home for the third time? Was it against Notre Dame, where Kirk Cousins missed a wide open receiver in the end zone on the game's penultimate play, and threw an INT across his body, on the run, into the center of the defense, on the final relevant play?

How about against Michigan, where Sparty shackled the Wolverines for 56 minutes, but let Tate Forcier construct two touchdowns to Darryl Stonum and Roy Roundtree, one with :09 left in the driving rain with Forcier completely exhausted, before midnight struck for Forcier in overtime? Last Saturday, however, may take the cake. Up by 4, Sparty coach Mark Dantonio decided to revert to a three-man rush until the game's last play, where he rushed seven. Kirk Ferentz called his bluff, motioned Tony Moeaki across the formation, got Marvin McNutt on a one-on-one situation AT THE THREE YARD line, ran a slant, and look at the picture above. Again, ONE ON ONE and a three yard SLANT pass was wide open? Truly, SPARTY NOOOOOOO. The Dantonio face after the TD catch was priceless, and totally deserved for the bitter Spartan coach.

Minnesota can relate to these kind of moments, however (Iowa 1994, Northwestern 2000, Michigan 2003 and 2004, Wisconsin 2005, Texas Tech 2006, the month of November 2008). The rules of college football now dictate that even if both teams wet the bed, someone has to win the game. Who is going to choke less? We'll find out tomorrow.

Before getting to some stats and predictions, a couple notes. First, all the best to Eric Decker. He is proof that the Scout and Rivals guys cannot quantify hard work, talent and perseverance. Think of all the fine receivers Minnesota has had over the years. Decker is the finest this university has ever seen (and Brewster, no, it's not an "excellent opportunity" for your team - losing Decker sucks - you ought to know this from November 2008). Unfortunately, that weird step he took on the out pass against Ohio State will directly affect his financial and football future, as it seems he'll need 5-8 months to recover from surgery on the foot. Whoever drafts this guy is getting a steal. Vikings or Lions, please pick him up.

In case you were wondering, had Glen Mason remained as coach, the Gophers' wideouts this year and last would have been Decker and Wisconsin WR David Gilreath. Gilreath, who decommitted after Mason was fired, would have been nice to have around in Decker's absence, both last year and this.

And if you shutter an envious eye at Spartan LB Greg Jones, the preseason Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, don't be too mad when you realize that Jones also de-committed from Minnesota after Mason was fired. Of course, Mason was a terrible recruiter, so this doesn't matter anymore. Jones and Campbell are similar players in production this year. However, Jones is but a junior while Campbell is gone in 2 months. (also, if you remember seeing starting Cal LB Devin Bishop, well, he had committed twice to Minny before Mason was fired, and he then decommitted to go to Cal.)

Alright, on to Saturday. When I previewed this game in August and debuted the term "Wild Rodent," I predicted a 23-20 win for Michigan State. Things haven't really changed this year to change my prediction in any significant way.

The teams line up pretty well in regard to scoring stats. Michigan State averages 27.25 ppg (57th nationally) and gives up 20.75 ppg (39th). On the other hand, Minnesota averages 21.13 ppg (101st) and gives up 25.13 ppg (70th). Based on these stats, empiricists would expect a 26-21 final score in favor of Sparty. Let's throw a couple more statistical and aesthetic logs on the fire:

(1) The biggest log, of course, is the absence of Decker. There are a couple ways this could go. On the one hand, Weber could look lost without his security blanket, will struggle, causing fan unrest (and let's face it, drunken students and fans will not be quiet on Halloween) and causing the coaches (if they're not oblivious) to play more Gray. On the other hand, Weber may feel more comfortable to spread the ball around to everyone, in turn making the Gopher offense more diverse and dangerous. Of course, this will require the Gopher WRs (Brandon, Stoudermire and Carpenter, in particular) to make plays. The chances are there, although without the Decker double-team, Sparty can commit more defenders to the rush. Spreading Sparty out with the pass may be the way to success.

(2) Michigan State has no such issues in the passing game, which could make tomorrow very depressing for Gopher fans. Sparty is 22nd nationally in passing offense, averaging 273.50 ypg. The Gophers, in contrast, are 77th nationally in pass defense, averaging 229.63 ypg. This despite playing Air Force and a first-time college QB (Paulus) in the opener. Sparty has a quality set of wide receivers: walk-on Blair White (who, conveniently, is also white), Mark Dell, BJ Cunningham and TE Charlie Gantt. As Minnesota gives up one passing touchdown each week where no Gopher defender is within 15 yards of the receiver (Air Force, Purdue, Penn State, Ohio State), expect a similar breakdown or two this week.

(3) Go back to #1. How much will MarQueis Gray play? If he does play, remember a couple of things: (a) Gray led his touchdown drive against the second-string Buckeye defense that had called off the dogs. Sparty's first-string defense is top quality. (b) Gray won't progress much past the first option and will be subject to a tough pass rush. Expect growing pains. (c) Remember, if Gray is in, Greg Jones will likely spy him. I'm not sure that will end too well for Gray. Perhaps Illinois's porous defense is a better week in which to further integrate Gray into the game.

(4) The night experience. Who knows how this will go? On the one hand, drunken students make for a raucous crowd. Will they keep the faith if things go wrong? Will they verbally assault Brewster and Fisch if the playcalling (probably) goes haywire? Will the cold sap the life out of the crowd (I saw this first-hand in Iowa City this year - their Homecoming crowd was dead after the second play of the game, a Stanzi INT for TD. The cold also played a large part in it. Frankly, so did playing Journey's "Don't Stop Believing" when the Hawkeyes re-entered the stadium in the second half.)

Well, both teams are 4-4, which is what we thought they were in August. Sparty needs to recover from its SPARTY NOOOOOO moment last week, and needs to recover to meet its preseason bowl expectations. Minnesota continues to build toward success in 2011 (and fans, stop asking for it, because Tim Brewster's going to be here at least until 2011).

I'm not sure what to expect (though when Dantonio's team falls apart at some point tomorrow, I hope you yell SPARTY NOOOOOOOO), but I do know this. If Sparty gives up more than 20 points in 2009, they lose. I don't think it happens tomorrow (at least in regulation):

Michigan State 24 - Minnesota 20.

10/3	Arkansas State	W 24-21	11	49	4.5	19	0	2	12	6.0	8
10/10	Michigan	W 30-28	13	21	1.6	7	1	2	12	6.0	9
10/17	@Wisconsin	W 20-10	11	1	0.1	5	0	2	19	9.5	16
10/24	@Michigan State	W 15-13	6	30	5.0	11	0	1	23	23.0	23