SB Nation - Derrell Johnson-Koulianos

Who are Iowa's playmakers?

BirdGT — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:00:21 -0000

Iowa's got three guys on offense I'm kinda worried about. The primary running back (Robinson), the good wide receiver (McNutt), and the tight end. We seem to struggle against tight ends (we give up ~3 catches/game to tight ends). McNutt and Robinson are the primary offensive weapons on Iowa's team having scored twelve of the team's twenty nine touchdowns. When Iowa needs some points, they look for McNutt and Robinson to produce or at least produce as much as an Iowa offense will allow them. Here's a quick summary of who picks up the yardage and TD's in the Iowa offense:

Looking at the yardage and touchdowns can be slightly misleading. Guys could get a big play and take it to the house on busted coverage. This could skew their overall numbers so I kinda broke it down even further. As far as receivers are concerned, there are three important factors I looked at. First was "looks" or essentially the number of times the QB threw the ball in their direction. Second was "catches" or the number of actual receptions for the player. Third was "success", which adds up all the times he took the ball for a first down or touchdown. I feel like the success rate indicates who we have to look at, from a defensive perspective, as the deep threats or the guys Iowa will go to in the clutch. So, here are Iowa's numbers for success/look, success/catch, and catch/look.

Obviously, success is relative. If the route was designed to pick up 5 yards and not a first down, then it obviously was successful. However, I'm not really factoring that in 'cause that fact is lost forever after the play is called in and actually executed. We're only looking for game breakers not 5 yard out route masters.

GT fans may have noticed that I added Demaryius Thomas to the statistics. He's pretty much on par with Iowa's main threats except in success rate. Thomas takes about 5% more of his catches for first downs or TD's than Iowa's best. So if an Iowa fan says, "You've only got one receiver!" GT fans can reply, "That's all you need when the probability of him succeeding is just as good or better than the whole gaggle of Iowa receivers!" Why fix something that's not broken? Keep throwing to Thomas and he'll keep giving us first downs and touchdowns.

Concerning the running game...Iowa doesn't really have a game breaker. The guys are serviceable. They're very young. GT would struggle with freshmen starting in our system and Iowa's two primary backs are both freshmen and account for over 80% of the carries and all of the rushing touchdowns for Iowa. Iowa is in the bottom of almost every Big 10 rushing category because they've just not had the Shonn Greene or Albert Young to carry the load and bust the occasional big one.

I broke down the running backs into two main statistics. Success rate and fail rate. "Success" means the RB picked up the first down or touchdown on his carry. "Fail" means he didn't gain a yard. I added someone to the graph who will become Iowa's new best friend shortly. Other accounts for QB draws, QB sneaks, backup RB's, and WR reverses.

And really this is Iowa's problem. Their running backs fail to gain a yard ~25% of the time. That's terrible. 80 run plays for Iowa's two main backs have accounted for less than zero yards. I am comparing Dwyer to these two because his position is most similar and his stats are more similar. Our A-backs rushing stats are like wide receiver stats. Also, Jon Dwyer is our worst back concerning plays for negative or zero yardage and he only fails to achieve a yard 10% of the time! That's only 25 plays all year! Awesome. I hope Ferentz is working on Iowa's run blocking during his month off.

As I look at Iowa's offense each day, I wonder how they won any games at all. How do you win 10 games without running the ball effectively? Their defense is either superb or their competitions' offenses were equally terrible.

Iowa Motto: Workers of the world unite!

BirdGT — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Reporter: If you're in a 3rd and 5 situation, who gets the ball 56% of the time? Who gets it the other 34%? (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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I started pouring over Iowa's play calling yesterday trying to find trends, interesting nuances, and intricate caveats to Ken O'Keefe's offense. I didn't find any. Iowa has the most plain, upfront offense ever. It's incredibly balanced with the pass and run. The quarterbacks distribute the ball evenly to three main wide receivers and a tight end. Two running backs split the load quite effectively. I excluded punts, field goals, dead ball penalties, QB kneels, and penalties that resulted in no play. Here's a look graphically at O'Keefe's play calling based on the down and based on the distance to attain a first down/touchdown:

The two primary running backs for Iowa are Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher. I want to pronounce that WEE-gurr so from here on out pronounce it that way in your head. Iowa fans, feel free to correct me in the comments. Based on the data, neither seems to have really separated himself from the other. Robinson gains about 4.6 yards per carry to Wegher's 3.6. Even though Wegher has more touchdowns, Robinson has a better nose for the yard to gain. Wegher has attained a first down or touchdown on 20.4% of his carries as opposed to Robinson attaining the first or TD 25.7% of the time. The following charts display the distribution of the football (looks) per back and the carries distributed based on yards to gain a first or TD. In both graphs, I mistakenly left wide receiver reverses and QB sneaks in the "Other" category so keep that in mind.

Now, the interesting thing about Iowa's offense, like most NCAA offenses is that passing routes are typically designed to gain a certain amount of yardage not necessarily positive yardage like a run play. The vast majority of routes(e.g. outs, slants, flags, etc.) are designed with the intent to get the ball to one specific spot and the receiver will be tackled immediately. If he breaks a tackle, then that's a bonus. So that's how these graphs following were thought up. I am assuming that most college offenses are 1 to 2 read pass plays so the play is called with the intended receiver in mind.

A breakdown of Iowa's receivers shows three dominant receivers and a tight end catching almost all of the passes (~65%). The main dudes are Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Marvin McNutt, Trey Stross, and Tony Moeaki (TE). The three named dude is henceforth pronounced "cool-EE-anus". McNutt is pretty obvious/funny. Stross = "Straws". Moeaki will be pronounced mow-EE-ah-KEY. McNutt and Moeaki catch the touchdowns. DJK and Stross pick up yardage. Looks include incomplete passes. "Other" in this case includes everyone on the field not named Moeaki, McNutt, DJK, or Stross (may appear high due to stat keepers not keeping accurate track of incompletions). Also, the RB's in the charts are only Robinson/Wegher not backup dudes that see little to no significant PT.

As you can see from all the charts and numbers and stuff, Iowa doesn't care who has the ball in their hands. Robinson has a little bit better grasp of his position than Wegher but he's not an astronomical upgrade. McNutt is the guy to key on in the passing game but he opens things up for Moeaki over the middle and the other two dudes. If Iowa allocates a good chunk of their offense to intermediate passing and really distributes the football, we'll have a tough time defending them.

I think a big key will be limiting Robinson and Wegher on first down. The "effectiveness" of Iowa's offense is predicated on maintaining the run-pass balance. It gives O'Keefe more flexibility in playcalling and keeps pressure off his freshmen RB's. Iowa's in the bottom half of the Big 10 in sacks allowed. And interestingly enough, Iowa has allowed more sacks on third down than any other down; allowing a sack 10% of the time they drop back to pass on third down. Derrick Morgan we need you to play big.

Very Nice Cover, SI

Bama Hawkeye — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:27:52 -0000

John Clay marks the third Big Ten cover of the football season, following the star turns of Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, and the Daryll Clark & Stefen Wisniewski combo.

All-Big Ten Awards Announced, Swept Once Again By Toto

Oops Pow Surprise — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:00:45 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

about 1 month ago: Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in Iowa City, Iowa. Northwestern won 17-10. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Good news, everyone!* The Big Ten announced its picks for the all-conference teams. Naturally, the offensive and defensive player of the year are both Terrelle Pryor. Okay, not true; he's not even honorable mention.

But there's plenty of actual good news. First, the devil media named Kirk Ferentz coach of the year, and here he is reminding them that they can go suck it and he hasn't forgiven them for the slights of the regular season.

Such language, Kirk!

As for the players, here's the link to the voting results. The media named Bryan Bulaga to the first team on offense, while the second team featured four of his friends from the line: Rafael Eubanks, Dace Richardson, Kyle Calloway, and Tony Moeaki.

On defense, the first team had a little more Iowa representation; Adrian Clayborn, Pat Angerer, and Tyler Sash all received their no-brainer merits. On the second team, Brett Greenwood and Amari Spievey. Iowa put eight players on the media's honorable mention team: Ryan Donahue, Broderick Binns, A.J. Edds, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Karl Klug, Daniel Murray, Adam Robinson, and Ricky Stanzi.

Not surprisingly, the coaches had a slightly higher opinion of the Hawkeyes; here's the link to their voting results. Bryan Bulaga was named their offensive lineman of the year(!!!), an award the media doesn't give out. Bulaga is joined on the first team by Moeaki and Richardson, both of which are worthy selections. Calloway and Eubanks didn't make the second team--not sure why on Calloway--but Derrell Johnson-Koulianos snuck in on a three-player tie for second-team WR.

On defense, the coaches agreed with the media in putting Sash, Clayborn, and Angerer on the first team roster. They also added Amari Spievey; as coaches, they're more likely to know that the reason Spievey didn't have a ton of picks wasn't that he's not good at football, but that there's just no hope in throwing at him; Spievey was a machine this season, and we're starting to lose hope that he's got more than one game left in an Iowa uniform. A.J. Edds is the lone Hawkeye on the defensive second team.

For honorable mention, it's as follows:Christian Ballard, Kyle Calloway, Ryan Donahue, Brent Greenwood, Karl Klug, and Adam Robinson.

Full All-BXI teams and a few thoughts are after the break.

MEDIA

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
QB	Daryll Clark, Penn State	Mike Kafka, Northwestern
RB	Evan Royster, Penn State	Brandon Saine, Ohio State
RB	JOHN CLAY, Wisconsin	Ralph Bolden, Purdue
WR	Tandon Doss, Indiana	Blair White, Michigan State
WR	Keith Smith, Purdue	Zeke Markshausen, Northwestern
C	Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State	Rafael Eubanks, Iowa
G	Justin Boren, Ohio State	Jon Asamoah, Illinois
G	John Moffitt, Wisconsin	Dace Richardson, Iowa
T	Bryan Bulaga, Iowa	Kyle Calloway, Iowa
T	Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin	Dennis Landolt, Penn State
TE	Garrett Graham, Wisconsin	Tony Moeaki, Iowa
PK	Brett Swenson, Michigan State	Stefan Demos, Northwestern

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
DL	Adrian Clayborn, Iowa	Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DL	Brandon Graham, Michigan	Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
DL	Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue	Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
DL	O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin	Jared Odrick, Penn State
LB	Pat Angerer, Iowa	Ross Homan, Ohio State
LB	GREG JONES, Michigan State	Josh Hull, Penn State
LB	Navorro Bowman, Penn State	Sean Lee, Penn State
DB	Tyler Sash, Iowa	Brent Greenwood, Iowa
DB	Donovan Warren, Michigan	Amari Spievey, Iowa
DB	Sherrick McManis, Northwestern	Brad Phillips, Northwestern
DB	Kurt Coleman, Ohio State	David Pender, Purdue
P	Zoltan Mesko, Michigan	Jeremy Boone, Penn State

COACHES

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
QB	Daryll Clark, Penn State	Mike Kafka, Northwestern
RB	Evan Royster, Penn State	Brandon Saine, Ohio State
RB	John Clay, Wisconsin	Ralph Bolden, Purdue
WR	Eric Decker, Minnesota	Tandon Doss, Indiana*
WR	Blair White, Michigan State	Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa* Keith Smith, Purdue*
C	Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State	Rafael Eubanks, Iowa* Joel Nitchman, Michigan State*
G	Dace Richardson, Iowa	Jon Asamoah, Illinois
G	John Moffitt, Wisconsin	Justin Boren, Ohio State
T	Bryan Bulaga, Iowa	Rodger Saffold, Indiana
T	Dennis Landolt, Penn State	Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
TE	Tony Moeaki, Iowa	Garrett Graham, Wisconsin
PK	Brett Swenson, Michigan	Stefan Demos, Northwestern

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
DL	Adrian Clayborn, Iowa	Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DL	Brandon Graham, Michigan	Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
DL	Jared Odrick, Penn State	Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
DL	O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin	Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
LB	Pat Angerer, Iowa Linebacker	A.J. Edds, Iowa
LB	Greg Jones, Michigan State	Ross Homan, Ohio State
LB	Navorro Bowman, Penn State	Sean Lee, Penn State
DB	Tyler Sash, Iowa	Donovan Warren, Michigan*
DB	Amari Spievey, Iowa	Sherrick McManis, Northwestern*
DB	Brad Phillips, Northwestern	Brandon King, Purdue*
DB	Kurt Coleman, Ohio State	David Pender, Purdue* Jay Valai, Wisconsin*
P	Zoltan Mesko, Michigan	Jeremy Boone, Penn State

Okay. While we're quite happy that Bulaga got such high accolades for the season, we can't be alone in thinking that he was hardly the best lineman in Iowa City, much less the Big Ten. He was either on the sidelines or out of sorts for the majority of the season, and we still haven't seen the elephant-tusk-covered road grader from last season on display. He totally would have deserved a preseason OL of the year, but his performance over 2009 didn't merit such superlatives.

This is hardly a new development from these postseason lists, however; generally, the lists are crafted off of the preseason lists, and anybody whose knee blew out with more than four games left was excised and replaced by someone else. After all, Bulaga was only a second-team All-BXI player last season, even though he was by far the best lineman on the team in 2008. Seth Olsen, meanwhile, had the good fortune to be a first-teamer to start the year, so he was on the first team after 2008, despite a relatively blah senior campaign; we'd have put him about fourth on the list of Iowa linemen for 2009, behind the two bookends at tackle and Rob Bruggeman at center.

Essentially, Bulaga won the award in 2009 for his play in 2008.

At the end of the day, this comes down to stats; there aren't any for linemen, despite the ill-fated attempt to get the "pancake" introduced about a decade ago (for this, we blame Orlando Pace). It's assumed that linemen are sure things, and that as long as they stay healthy, the narrative has stayed true. After all, without stats, most scribes have no time (or no idea) how to watch linemen individually.

Frankly, though it's a subjective stat, we'd love to see how linemen grade out per play (remember that Blake Larsen famously graded at 100% during his senior season at Atlantic; lord, had those knees survived...) Without having the means to undertake such an activity ourselves, we'd imagine that if you graded each Iowa offensive lineman, Kyle Calloway or Dace Richardson would probably be at the top.

If they're not, which is possible, then it would probably be the guy who didn't even get an honorable mention: Riley Reiff. He was stout in relief of Bulaga--hell, we're pretty sure O'Brien Schofield would not have batted Reiff around like a catnip mouse, unlike some Iowa linemen--and he basically forced his way into the starting lineup even before Big Dace went down. But since he wasn't even a projected starter, to say nothing of a preseason honoree, Reiff didn't have much of a chance for postseason mention. Shame, really; dude is legit, and he hasn't even filled out his frame yet.

As for the skill players, it's a little disappointing that Stanzi only made one honorable mention team. But we get how that can happen. Spievey only making second team in the media is flatly ridiculous. If he'd put together that same season in an Ohio State uniform, he'd be getting All-American talk.

Other than that, we don't have a ton of beef; Stanzi killed himself by leading the conference in interceptions when he went down to injury, and the rest of the offensive skill players were far too inconsistent or hurt to merit much consideration. Jeremiha Hunter not getting any honorable mention love is a little disconcerting, but the BXI was lo-ho-hoaded at linebacker this season; we're not quite sure whom we'd place him above. He'll get some love in 2010 if he stays healthy. Also--given the play of Jeff Tarpinian in relief--if Hunter stays healthy between now and next September, there's no position battle at weakside backer next season, right?

So, all in all, a fair list, even if the voting on offensive linemen is basically a year behind schedule. It's a year behind for everyone else, after all. Anybody else that you folks think got shafted? Did Marvin McNutt deserve a nod, or is he still a year away from recognition?

*/Farnsworth'd

Not the 12-0 We Wanted Most, But a 12-0 We'll Gladly Take

Oops Pow Surprise — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:05:29 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

WHO WANTS STEEL RIBS OR STEEL HAM? (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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So. A month ago, if you'd been told that "12-0" was happening today, you'd probably be getting all giddy and buying a ticket for Pasadena. Of course, that 12-0 didn't come to fruition, on account of the Stanzageddon and all, but we do have the next best thing: Iowa 12, Minnesota 0.

Was it ugly? Christ yes, it was ugly; Iowa was 1-12 on 3rd down conversions, and theirs wasn't even the ugliest offense of the game.

Minnesota's offense, on the other hand, was one of the worst we've seen all season long. The two Minnesota quarterbacks - Adam Weber and MarQueis Gray - combined to go 14-42 through the air for 153 yards and one interception. That's an average of 3.6 yards per attempt, which is melt-your-retinas ugly. Oh, and Weber lost two of his three fumbles. Yes, Minnesota accounted for more yards than Iowa--201 to 171--but they needed 18 more plays to do so, meaning Iowa's own train wreck of an offense was at least more efficient. Sort of.

As for that Iowa offense, what's there to say? They clearly missed Adam Robinson's running ability when he went down with a re-injury of his ankle; he should be back in plenty of time for the bowl, so no real harm done here. But Brandon Wegher, from Dakota Dunes, South Dakota, one of the great town names in America (/Musberger'd), is really not an every-down back yet, and has no business trying to fill that role right now. That's not to say he's a bust or anything nearly as dour; it's just that there's a reason why, if all the tailbacks were healthy, he'd be about 4th or 5th string right now (Jewel Hampton, Robinson, Jeff Brinson, and maybe Paki Bomb). He's just a true freshman. Most true freshmen aren't ready to run the rock 25 times in a game--especially when they're evidently so green with the playbook that they're telegraphing every run play before the snap.

In fact, if this game proved anything, it's that injuries have wrecked any hope or semblance of consistency for the Iowa offense; James Vandenberg was the 20th different player to start on offense for Iowa this season. For the Iowa defense? 15--and two of those extra four starters were at the same position (Greg Castillo and Willie Lowe, for Shaun Prater at LCB). That's remarkably important; continuity is a big deal in a team sport like football, and as much as Kirk Ferentz and his staff preach the importance of the "next man in," with the notable exception of Riley Reiff, there's always been a marked dropoff in performance from starter to backup.

Thus, getting healthy for the bowl game and getting the best possible lineup (Bulaga, Dace Richardson, Rafael Eubanks, Reiff, and Kyle Calloway on the line; A-Rob and Brett Morse in the backfield; Trey Stross, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, and Tony Moeaki as receivers) would be a welcome development for the offense. How many times has that ideal lineup been healthy and starting all at once? Twice: at Wisconsin and about the first 10 minutes of at Michigan State.

And let's not even get started on losing Hampton and Brinson before the season.

Yes, the above lineup is pretty unimpeachably Iowa's best; while Marvin McNutt is obviously talented, he's done his best as the third receiver instead of starting at wideout--think back to Mo Brown in 2002, for example. Unless something bad happens in practice between now and the bowl game, the Iowa offense is going to look a lot better, and it'll be independent of the playcalling (which always looks a lot better when the players can reliably execute it).

As for the defense, they were utterly lights-out; Weber was harassed throughout the day, and it's to his credit that he was "only" sacked five times. The Iowa defensive line combined for 7.0 TFL and 4 of the 5 sacks, and they abused the offensive line so thoroughly that Bob Griese was left questioning everything about the Gopher unit and their commitment to the sport. That was nice.

Really, this was as vintage a 2009 Iowa game as any this season. The offense struggled through injuries to key contributors but put up enough points to take a double-digit lead, and the defense choked the opposing offense to death long before the final whistle sounded. It's never been pretty, but at the end of the day, you cannot argue with this: it's another 10-win season for Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes. Well done, men. Well done indeed.

Now let's go cook up some steel bacon for dinner.

The Last Gopher Friday Preview Until Pizza Pizza? Minnesota at Iowa, November 21, 2009

JG2112 — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:15:14 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

I knew life wouldn't be good once I got kicked out of the Institute of Technology.

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Give me or Tressel the Patriots. We would have punted on third down. 10:06 AM Nov 17th from TweetDeck
- from the "Not Kirk Ferentz" Twitter stream - http://twitter.com/NotKirkFerentz

Saturday is the end of the college football year, for all intents and purposes. outside of some rivalry games and conference title games. Then onto the bowls. Really, other than Florida/Alabama and Texas (or maybe TCU?) , the 66 or so bowl participants will be taking part in exhibition games in late December and early January in mostly warm climates, of which the most impressive part of the experience is usually the gifts given to the student-athletes that somehow are allowed under NCAA rules (example: last year each Gopher got a Vizio 26-inch LCD HDTV, a Bulova watch, and a Hat at the Insight Bowl.) Besides the gifts, ask Corey Wootton, Willis McGahee or Glen Mason: only bad things really happen in bowl games for the participants.

But back to tomorrow, when Tim Brewster will try for a significant milestone - his first rivalry game win. Last week Brew got his first win in November as a college coach. This week, a Big Ten win in November will increase his record in rivalry games to a robust 1-7. This comes on the heels of Maturi's weird comments to Sid in Thursday's Star Tribune, which indicated an endorsement of the program's direction but a peculiar non-endorsement of the coach. And while we can be literal and say that the only way that Brewster's job comes under fire is if they lose the next two games by 100 in the aggregate, the fact it's even being suggested is foolish in my opinion, but could be suggestive of things going on at Fort Bierman.

Iowa enters this game having endured a rough November thus far. First off, Northwestern put paid to Iowa's national championship hopes in Kinnick, and then Kirk Ferentz's lack of backbone gave away the outright Big Ten Title to Ohio State (pending their beatdown of Michigan). Oh yeah, Minnesota won't be the beneficiary of any Stanzi-balls on Saturday, either.

That really is unfortunate, because the backup QB, freshman James Vandenberg, played rather well in the Horseshoe, completing 20/33 for 233 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs (one at the end of the 1st half, one in OT). Playing in front of friendly fans may make him more relaxed. Then again, the pressure of Senior Day and the Pig may make him channel his inner Stanzi and get acquainted with BIG PLAYE TRAYE.

Looking at the rest of the offense, you know what you're getting with Iowa. The big hogs up front are interchangeable and generally awesome. LT Brian Bulaga is the standout. The Hawkeyes like running stretch plays where a TE (normally Tony Moeaki) will go in motion to Bulaga's side, and whichever RB is in the game (Adam Robinson, Brandon Wegher, Paki O'Meara) will plow behind those two for big chunks of yardage. As has been the case this year, Minnesota's DTs need to keep Iowa's line occupied so Campbell, Triplett, Lawrence and/or Cooper can flow to the ball, attack the lead blocker, and cut the play back for the help to arrive. If the D-line is pushed around and Iowa's line can get to the second level, this game will get ugly.

That's without mentioning Iowa's passing game, which as mentioned above, went for over 230 yards on Ohio State last week. Marvin McNutt is a former QB with significant height (please grow six inches Carter kthx) and superb speed, and I think every Minnesota fan knows about Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. Simmons (who returned to practice Wednesday after recovering from a leg ailment) and Marcus Sherels are carrying injuries which may make them vulnerable in pass coverage.

As for Iowa's defense, yikes. On the line, meet 2007 Cretin Derham Hall grad Broderick Binns (7 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks), along with Adrian Clayborn (8.5 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss and THAT punt block against Penn State) and Karl Klug. The linebackers include A.J. Edds (65 tackles), Pat Angerer (119 tackles) and Jeremiah Hunter (83 tackles), and if you look to the secondary, meet Tyler Sash (6 INTs, 76 tackles), Amari Spievey, and Brett Greenwood.

This is the kind of defense that will give the Gopher offense fits (namely, competent and well-drilled). Iowa rarely sends its linebackers on blitzes because the front four can get pressure by itself. In almost every Gopher game this year we've watched this happen, so I'm even more concerned about tomorrow's game. Other than against Sparty, the Gophers, since the Penn State game, have had horrific pass protection which has led to Adam Weber looking like a true freshman in the pocket.

And sorry everyone, but this isn't the game to fully let MarQueis Gray loose on the football world. Brewster had his chance last week and decided not to, which suggests either coaching stubbornness or player incapabilities at this point. Gray, at this point in his development, would have been most effective against a team with slower defensive players who were frequently blitzing him and leaving him wide open running lanes, such as on November 14th at TCF. The last place you want Gray deciphering coverages is against a Norm Parker-drilled defense of veteran players, whose LBs don't even need to blitz you to get pressure.

So tomorrow you can expect Weber to be in the pocket, with lots of max protect (TEs and RBs) to provide support for Alford, Wills and Carufel in the hopes that Weber is given more than 3 seconds to wait for his WRs to break free from what are excellent Herkeye defensive backs. Once again, Hoese and Tow-Arnett will likely be utilized extensively in the passing game, trying to break the tackles of those excellent LBs. Blergh.

Oh, and have I mentioned that Brandon Green missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury and is questionable for Saturday? Calling Messrs. McKnight, Stoudermire, and yes, Carpenter, please be ready for action.

Anything else? Yeah. The forecast Saturday: around 55 and sunny.

Also, an aside: yeah, I recognize this is a conspiracy theory, BUT. The slate of games on Saturday is one of the least attractive collection of games I can ever remember this late in the season (thanks Florida and Alabama, among others, for scheduling soup cans this weekend). One of ESPN/ABC's featured games is Kansas at Texas.

Anyone else find it uniquely coincidental that ESPN is releasing an amazing slow drip of information from multiple sources (where have these former players been since August?) about Kansas HC Mark Mangino's bad temper and abuse at practice the same week it needs to drum up interest in a rather lackluster prime time game? At all?

Okay.

So what about Saturday? Minnesota has a chance here. It needs to attack Iowa's defense straight-on, because it can be run on. Weber cannot expect to spend much time, if any, looking in the pocket, and Fisch should not abandon the running game and put Weber into obvious passing situations.

As for Minnesota on defense, they need to roll support over to whoever is guarding the tall McNutt. Of course, this leaves the Gophers susceptible to either Johnson-Koulianos or Moeaki, but, you've got to try something.

Bottom line: games this year in Iowa City have been close. Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Michigan, Indiana and NW were really all very tense, close games. Saturday SHOULD be no different. If the Gophers are not competitive, however, I guess Maturi will be having a discussion with Mr. Brewster about what is expected when the Gophers get their new TVs in Arizona. I don't see it happening.

Iowa 27 - Minnesota 20.

Finally: Roses

Sam @ WWAHT — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 01:36:40 -0000

More photos » by Jay LaPrete - AP

about 1 month ago: Ohio State defensive end Jonathan Newsome celebrates with a rose after a 27-24 overtime win over Iowa in an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009, in Columbus, Ohio.The victory assures the Buckeyes a share of the Big Ten title and a trip to the Rose Bowl. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)

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Before I start on the good, bad, etc., let's give all the credit we can to the Iowa Hawkeyes. I gave them more than a "chance" in this game, and many did not. Say what you want about the dropped INTs Vandenberg threw; dude also watched two touchdowns - one actual, a second potential - get dropped. He played better than most expected. The rest of the Hawkeyes get credit, too, but I'm not sure exactly where to give it. Their defense surrendered 200 yards on the ground, Trey Stross dropped two potential touchdowns.... I guess Derrell Johnson-Koulianos was pretty much awesome as well, and the front seven did a very good job of hemming Pryor in.

Not awesome: Kirk Ferentz. I'm sorry, but Ohio State was reeling at the end of the game, after that last awful, awful Thoma punt. One long pass and a field goal, and Iowa has its best win in the last 30-some odd years. I am pissed off to an unthinkable degree right now if I'm a Hawkeye fan about this, but perhaps an actual Hawkeye fan can explain this for me.

Still, Iowa is, unquestionably, the second best team in the Big Ten, and will make an excellent, excellent representative of this conference in whatever bowl they wind up in. Good luck, Hawkeyes.

Now, onto us... where I won't be quite so courteous:

The Good

- I think the offensive line was very, very good for about 3.5 quarters. Two straight weeks they've taken on two of the Big Ten's best DLs, and they came away winners against both. 200 yards rushing for four straight weeks basically makes them the best run-blocking OL we've seen in some time.

- Terrelle Pryor did not look bad, and was far from average when Ohio State needed him most, and thus, he gets the nod here. The stats are not pretty, but he kept a few drives alive that would have otherwise died bloody deaths. More on this Pryor dynamic later.

- The defensive line had its second-worst game of the season as a unit, but I thought the DTs did a fairly good job limiting the Iowa rushing attack by occupying the guards and forcing the backs outside, where the linebackers - being their usual swarming selves - could end the play then and there.

- Saine and Herron are both finally becoming the backs we thought they'd be heading into the season.

The Bad

- The playcalling today was... lackluster. I'm being nice. Not only were we conservative, but often needlessly so. Before the half, you have to try for some points. Late in the fourth, you have to try for some points. Both failures of creativiy helped keep this game close. Even after last week, this staff has no apparent faith whatsoever in Terrelle Pryor's arm, and that is killing this offense. I have nothing against TP voicing these concerns with Tress, but I do wish he'd make it a little less public.

- My fears about this secondary were pretty much confirmed today; these guys live and die with the play of the defensive line. Most secondaries do, I guess, but these guys are particularly prone to coverage breakdowns when the front four isn't crushing the quarterback instantly. See: Navy, Wisconsin, Purdue, and now Iowa. I'm a little anxious to see how the line does against Michigan, as Forcier is more mobile than Elliot and Vandenberg, and can make throws on the run with ease. This is by no means a guaranteed win coming up in Ann Arbor.

- Special teams were terrible today. Yes, you can point to Barclay's made field goals, but that kick return was brutal, as was Barclay's lone miss. Jon Thoma had the worst day of any Buckeye punter that I can remember under JT.

The Downright Confusing

- Just what is it that the staff wants to do with Terrelle Pryor? Do they really want him to be another Craig Krenzel, who's just mistake-free enough to preserve the sloppy win, or do they want him to be Vince Young? Obviously, being rational beings, I'm sure they prefer the latter, but Pryor is finally actually showing some degree of aptitude in the passing game (dropped passes vs. PSU bedamned) , and the staff still seems to be trying to hem him in. I'm not sure he would have lit Iowa up, but I'm also not sure attempting 17 passes for 94 yards is a good thing for his development.

Of course, they're coaches, and they're paid the big bucks for a reason, and any team I'd coach would be screwed from the get-go.... but today would not have been a bad day to keep Pryor's confidence up heading into Michigan.

In the end, we got what I expected: a dogfight. I anticipated a late turnover or two that would seal the game for Ohio State, and that didn't quite happen. The dominant, game-clinching defensive effort I expected at some point didn't materialize until it was almost too late. The Hawkeyes are far, far better than most give them credit for, and this is definitely another quality win to add to Jim Tressel's resumé. But let's not get too laudatory: this team has some clear weaknesses. Michigan is probably not good enough to actually exploit them. But our Rose Bowl opponent almost certainly will be, and that means there is work to be done. Sure, go ahead, smell the roses....

.... but let's stop well short of pretending everything is rosy. (Ha, get it?! Alright, fine, I'll get back in the locker.)

hate hate hate hate hate. (writing edition)

Rodger Sherman — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:36:55 -0000

First thangs first: check out Chadnudj's post about who's gotta win this week and who's gotta lose this week. It's good stuff, and if you didn't notice it, it's over on the right side of the page over there. (that's where stuff you guys post goes. I can also make it go on the front page, but I kept chad's over there because it makes it look like I have readers when there are posts over there.)

Anyway, I sat down with interviewed sent a few questions via email to Ross from Black Heart Gold Pants to follow up on the podcast I did over there (go listen, if you got a half-hour or so to kill today), and he was kind enough to repond in great length:

Describe your hate for Northwestern, 50 words or less.

-- I hate them for beating Iowa three of the past four years, especially for providing one of my saddest Legendary Historic Kinnick Stadium experiences ever in 2006. I hate them because my brother went there, so it's a family thing. And I hate them for wearing purple, because losing to a bunch of Grimace-looking motherfuckers is depressing.

When you looked at the season, did you see "9-0?" When you look at the games you've played, do you have any idea how you're 9-0?

-- I saw "9-0" if I got good and drunk before doing some prognosticating, but that's about it. Between the brutal road schedule and the uncertainty at running back, center, defensive tackle, and left cornerback, I was fairly certain we'd run into a pothole or three somewhere along the way. I could try and explain how they're 9-0 in a way that used facts (like turnover margin and pass efficiency defense) or trite cliches (like the fact this team never quits or that they're quintessential hard-working grinder-types)... but those still wouldn't exactly be satisfying.

The honest truth is that this season has been (to this point) an almost ideal confluence of good talent, hard work, and, yes, luck. If you look at the season-defining plays Iowa has had this year, they all fit that description. The coaches recognize a weakness in Penn State's punt coverage team which allows Clayborn to steamroll a guy two-thirds his size and block a punt -- that's skill plus hard work. Being able to have the blocked punt bounce perfectly into Clayborn's arms while he's perfectly in stride -- well that's a bit of luck. McNutt recognizes that he can beat the Michigan State corner on an inside slant, the coaches trust him, the execution is flawless -- once again, skill plus hard work pays off. (That particular play probably involved the least amount of luck of any of these plays, but there were lucky breaks earlier in the drive/game, so we'll call it a wash.) The coaches call a blitz on third and goal, down 21-7 against Indiana (despite the fact that a blitz call in a similar spot in the first half led to a touchdown), the execution is again perfect, as the line and AJ Edds are able to pressure Ben Chappell into rushing his throw, which winds up taking a series of crazy caroms (enter: luck) off four players and lands in the arms of Tyler Sash; and thus the legend of the Pinball Pick Six is born. And so on. Only a fool would argue that this Iowa team hasn't gotten some very advantageous breaks this season, but only a truly ignorant observer would ignore the fact that this Iowa team has also had skilled players well-coached to be in the right positions to maximize the value of those lucky breaks.

The rest, after that jump.

Should opposing teams be scared about Iowa's offense, and if not, does it matter?

-- They should be scared of them for the roughly one quarter a game when they actually click. It would be nice if everything would click for more than one quarter, but consistency isn't really Iowa's thing this year. They have a decent amount of talent on offense -- they just rarely seem to all be on the same page. Anyone who's watched Iowa this year knows that when Ricky Stanzi is "on," he can be very good -- rifling in beautiful deep balls or hitting receivers in perfect stride to set up long runs after the catch; likewise, anyone who's watched Iowa this year also knows that when Ricky Stanzi is "off," he can be very very bad -- throwing some of the absolute worst and most indefensible interceptions imaginable by a major college quarterback. Both Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt have shown flashes of being sure-handed big play receivers; McNutt already has two of the most memorable touchdown catches in recent Iowa history and DJK always seems to make a big catch or three to get a first down during a game. That said, neither guy is all that consistent yet (particularly McNutt, who is still learning he ins and outs of the position). When healthy (a massive caveat in this case), Tony Moeaki is arguably the most talented and most complete tight end in terms of receiving ability and blocking ability in the Big Ten. And Brandon Wegher has been a surprisingly tough and quick-learning running back for a true freshman. So there are good players on the offense -- they just don't always seem to mesh in a way that leads to a consistent, powerful offense.

And it matters to the extent that if this is the mythical game when the offense actually does put it all together, then Northwestern is probably screwed. The defense has been doing its usual brilliant job of stifling opposing offenses, which might make it difficult for Northwestern's offense to keep up the pace if the Iowa offense is (unexpectedly) consistent and explosive. On the other hand, even if this is yet another stop-and-start day by the offense, the defense and special teams have done an incredible job of this year of keeping games close and, when necessary, breaking big plays and scoring points on their own.

Prediction for Saturday? Anything you say can and will be jinxed against you.

-- As much as I would love to see a repeat of the 62-10 massacre from 2002 (the closest I've ever seen an Iowa team come to pure offensive perfection), I fully realize that that is a pipe dream with this offense. Unless one side has a staggering number of turnovers, I think this will be yet another close, hard fought battle for Iowa. Iowa pulls away a little bit late to make this one a bit more comfortable than the last few heart-stoppers. 27-13, Iowa.

(yeah, that's a jinx.)

Replay and React: The good and bad from Saturday's loss

Jbharris87 — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 19:23:53 -0000

More photos » by Andy Manis - AP

2 months ago: Iowa defensive tackle A.J. Edds holds up the football and celebrates an interception with teammates Shaun Prater (28), Pat Angerer and Jeff Tarpinian during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Wisconsin Saturday Oct. 17, 2009, in Madison, Wis. Iowa won 20-10. (AP Photo/Andy Manis)

Browse more photos »

This was huge. Wisconsin had an opportunity to split the toughest two-game stretch of its schedule by protecting a ten-point lead on Homecoming. Win this game against Iowa and the Badgers would more than likely have been favored in each of their remaining games, which would have meant a reasonable shot at an 11-1 season and a bid in a BCS game. But as the Badgers have done so often under Bret Bielema, they folded like a portable beer pong table and blew the lead because of turnovers and sloppy play.

This was one of Wisconsin's few opportunities on the 2009 schedule to make a statement. Iowa came in 6-0 and ranked 11th in the country. Even if the Badgers now run the table, their remaining games are against mediocre teams, and we won't know how good they really are.

This game was eerily similar to one between the same teams at Camp Randall Stadium in 2005. That year, Iowa beat Wisconsin in what was Barry Alvarez's last home game as head coach. Then, too, the Badgers built a 10-0 lead only to lose 20-10.

Let's take a look at some of the positives and negatives from this go-around:

The Good

Running Backs - A bit of a surprise that we would single out this unit for praise after the team accumulated only 75 net rushing yards, though the running backs really did all they could. John Clay got things going early and was the main reason the Badgers built a 10-0 lead. After literally getting bent over backwards and spending several minutes down on the field, Clay was not the same. The fact he even walked to the sideline, let alone returned to the game, is testament to his character. It is tough to blame Clay for losing some of his burst after that kind of injury. Montee Ball made the most of his four carries, averaging 4.2 yards per, and scored his first career touchdown in only his third career game. Wisconsin was without the services of Zach Brown, who suffered a concussion against Ohio State but seemed as though he was itching to play. Clay also caught three balls. Given the circumstances, the running backs held up well in the face of adversity.

Defensive Line - O'Brien Schofield continues to operate in another world. The senior defensive end added two more tackles for loss to his NCAA-leading total and recovered a fumble that should have led to Wisconsin points. His counterpart, J.J. Watt, atoned for a critical offside penalty by recording four tackles for loss and a sack. The line helped limit the Hawkeyes to 65 net rushing yards.

Linebackers - When starter Mike Taylor went down with an injury, true freshman Chris Borland continued his phenomenal debut season by leading the team with ten tackles, recording a sack and 2.5 tackles for loss and forcing a fumble that should have been a lot more significant than the Wisconsin offense made it. Jaevery McFadden and Culmer St. Jean turned in solid performances, though McFadden giving up a catch to Hawkeye tight end Tony Moeaki, even while committing a pass interference penalty, was ugly.

The Bad

Quarterbacks - Scott Tolzien has now thrown five interceptions and no touchdown passes in his last two games. His three picks Saturday changed the momentum of the game and ended the Badgers' comeback attempts before they could even get going. Tolzien is not balancing his mistakes with big plays, as only one of his pass completions went for over 20 yards against Iowa. Curt Phillips did not prove to be the spark Bielema was looking for when he put the redshirt freshman in the game, getting stuffed after a one-yard gain on third down.

Secondary - The Badgers never found an answer for Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who made eight catches for 113 yards. While Wisconsin held star tight end Tony Moeaki to only three catches, two of them resulted in huge plays. One he hauled in for a long touchdown over Antonio Fenelus and another kept a Hawkeye drive alive on a third-and-17, leading to a dagger of a field goal. Jay Valai's personal foul penalty when it was clear the game had started to slip away from the Badgers didn't do his team any favors.

Coaching - Bielema likes to talk about his teams' outstanding home record and, while it is impressive, it is also overrated. The last three genuinely tough opponents the Badgers have faced in Madison have all walked away victorious. The lack of in-game adjustments this season has been puzzling to say the least, with teams generally outplaying Wisconsin in the second half. Stubbornly sticking to a script by putting Phillips in the game on the third offensive series, after Tolzien had driven the Badgers 92 yards for a touchdown, killed momentum. Anytime a team blows a ten-point lead and is shut out in the second half at home, the coaching could have been better.

-Jake Harris

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 4

Law Buckeye — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:44:55 -0000

While the scoreboard is beginning to take shape, the competition remains in its infancy. It's still anyone's game, so step up to the plate for the fourth installment of college football's smartest picks contest.

1. MINNESOTA at NORTHWESTERN, 12:00 p.m. EST (9/26), Big Ten Network

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts NORTHWESTERN by 7

This game might actually be more important than Penn State-Iowa, because they both want the same thing: 8 win seasons and an Outback Bowl berth. On paper, Northwestern is the favorite. They have a more efficient offense, a more talented signalcaller (the all of a sudden laser throwing Kafka), and will be at almost full strength on defense, unlike last week. But Minnesota showed extreme toughness at home against Cal, battling back when it seemed the game was turning into a blowout. The Minnesota Offensive Coordinator is showing improvement also, calling trick plays and mixing up the offense so that Weber doesn't focus so much on Decker. What will make the difference here? The Wildcats have a proven offensive system, the Gophers don't.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MINNESOTA by 7

Considering the history of this matchup I don't think there's any question we'll be treated to a close game. The real question here is can a Wildcat defense that blows hot and cold stay stout against Minnesota's dynamic duo of Weber and Decker? I like the Gophers to steal this one on the road, in the wake of a closer than expected showing against California.

2. MICHIGAN STATE at WISCONSIN, 12:00 p.m. EST (9/26), ESPN 360

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN STATE by 10

Camp Randall, spurned last year by 5 Big Ten losses and a defensive breakdown at home against Ohio State, will be rocking this year. The Badgers have a competent quarterback and less dependence on the run game, meaning they should be 30 times better than last year. Of course they don't feature a defense, which slows down improvement. Michigan State's Kirk Cousins, the 2nd best QB in the land according to my updated rankings, is going to have a big day throwing slants and comeback routes against the sad-sack Badger secondary. Remember how calm Samuel Jackson was at the end of Pulp Fiction (the "be cool baby, be cool" statement, the gold briefcase)? That was Cousins in South Bend, right up until the horrific pick. Good news for anyone worried about this sophomore reacting badly to the thunder of Camp Randall. It also would be nice to see a stagnant MSU run game finally get off the ground and if there is any team to do it against, it's Wisconsin.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MICHIGAN STATE by 10

One thing you can't deny is that picking games in the Big Ten is tough work this year. Varying struggles, combined with a more competitive conference landscape make matches like this one a headache. Will Michigan State live up to its reputation as an underachiever, riding two consecutive losses into a third defeat -- firmly cementing the season as a disappointment? Or, will Wisconsin, the pariah of the offseason, fall back into a few bad habits in the pass game? I see a Spartan team with a lot of potential, one that had Notre Dame on the ropes. I think Kirk Cousins has a big day in Madison, and Dantonio gets the green and white back on track.

3. INDIANA at No. 23 MICHIGAN, 12:00 p.m. EST (9/26), ESPN 2

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN by 17

None of you are going to pick Indiana, so why analyze? Because I love the matchup and it poses some interesting questions. Will Michigan's struggling defensive line, hammered by the ND run game and scored on twice by run-focused EMU, be able to stop the suddenly run-effective Pistol? Does Indiana have the defensive options, outside of Kirlew and Middleton, to slow the third best run attack in the BCS? Will Michigan show the numerous defensive formations (4-3, 3-4, 3-3-5) to confuse the steady but unspectacular Chappell? Or will all my questions be mooted by a 41-10 thrashing?

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MICHIGAN by 17

Michgian hasn't lost to Indiana in Ann Arbor in 42 years. That streak will be extended Saturday. In the easiest game of the day to pick, a Wolverine squad averaging 270 yards a game rushing will run over the Hoosiers. Not so fast? It's true that IU's run defense is solid, allowing a scant 228 yards over three games, and that Michigan will be without starting center David Molk (broken foot) and right guard David Moosman (dislocated shoulder). Still, their run block will be strong enough to overpower IU's defensive front. As Rich Rodriguez said after last week's win, "We had the intention of throwing a little bit more. But why would you when you don't have to?"

4. ILLINOIS at No. 13 OHIO STATE, 3:30 p.m. EST (9/26), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts OHIO STATE by 14

A healthy dose of Juice Williams running and J Lehman doing his best Superman impression was enough for the Illini last time they visited Columbus. But there's no J Lehman (hell there's no MLB Martez Wilson, he's done for the year) and Juice Williams showed no comfort or passing touch against Mizzou. Although OSU is saying the right things, I can't see a hobbled 7 to 9 attack getting anywhere against the bend but don't break Buckeye defense. One other thing I'd like to discuss - USC loss aside, this is still OSU. Don't forget that until they lose more than two conference games in a single year.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts OHIO STATE by 14

The Fighting Illini always seem to put up a fight against the Buckeyes, especially in Columbus. The last time Ron Zook and Juice Williams visited the Horseshoe they ran out the clock on Ohio State's No. 1 ranking, employing an impressive Williams/Mendenhall run tandem. Not this time. The fastest and meanest defense Columbus has seen in 5 years will bury a hesitant Juice Williams. Meanwhile, the Illini will be forced to corral Terrelle Pryor without star linebacker Martez Wilson. It's a frustrating day away for the Illini.

4. IOWA at No. 5 PENN STATE, 8:00 p.m. EST (9/26), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts PENN STATE by 10

Penn State might have to go one-dimensional if the run game gets stymied early by this solid Iowa front four. Will the Spread HD's favorite routes (wheel, sit down, sideline comeback route) succeed against the healthy and talented Iowa secondary? Will Ricky Stanzi throw an inexplicable pick early and kill all Iowa momentum? How can a frosh RB succeed in Happy Valley against Sean Lee and Bowman? Will the spiritual power of one hundred thousand fans drunk on revenge somehow form a ghostly 12th man in the shape of Jack Ham who plays every down next to Bowman, making tackles and screaming"We Are" the whole game? Oh my...Well Brick, that got out of hand.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts PENN STATE by 14

Revenge is a dish best served white and at night. Iowa ruined Penn State's perfect regular season in 2008 in front of a zealous home crowd. This time, they'll have to go it alone -- in the den of 110,000 roaring Nittany Lions. Iowa is banged up on offense, with left tackle Bryan Bulaga out with an undisclosed ailment, tight end Tony Moeaki sidelined with a sprained ankle, and receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos off the depth chart. Penn State is banged up on defense, with star linebackers Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee probable. I think this game belongs to Daryll Clark, a veteran averaging 274 yards in the air. The Nittany Lions storm out to an early lead and they never look back.