SB Nation - Dan Doering

There's A Game On Saturday: Iowa State

Oops Pow Surprise — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 06:28:10 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

3 months ago: Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads reacts with quarterback Austen Arnaud, right, after an Iowa State touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against North Dakota State, Thursday, Sept. 3, 2009, in Ames, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Okay, okay. So this week has not exactly gone as planned. Granted, there's been only one new departure from the 2-deeps, but Sweet Fancy Moses is it ever a bad one. Let's just work through it, people. Ignoring it isn't going to... oh god, can we try ignoring? Can we can we can we?

When Iowa has the ball

Running game? Um... yeah, about that. Here's a pretty quick list of all Iowa needs to establish the ground game tomorrow.

1. Open holes
2. A competent running back
3. Clever gameplanning to maximize mismatches

In short: FUCK WE ARE FUCKED.

As far as the line goes, first of all, it's worth noting that both Vandervelde and Calloway are back, though it's unlikely that either is at 100%--Vandervelde, in particular, will probably not play much more than half the snaps--if he struggles, even fewer. But their return means it's plausible we've seen the last of Dan Doering and Adam Gettis, and that is good news.

But then there's the Bulaga situation, and as you could have guessed, there's really no telling what happens at LT now. Ferentz may not even know at this point. You could plausibly see Reiff, Richardson, Calloway, Doering, or MacMillan at the position at some point in the game. If ISU had a defensive line, that would be a serious problem, and it might be anyway. But this shouldn't be a repeat of 2005, when ISU had a Jason Berryman going bananas on... who was it? Was it Lee Gray? Pete McMahon? Therapy has pushed the memories from our minds.

Luckily, Ricky Stanzi is a weapon at QB--90% of the time, anyway--and Iowa State probably doesn't have the horses to keep the passing game in check for four quarters. That would require even more regression than what happened between the Outback Bowl and UNI game--something we're not going to predict.

But it's that last 10% of snaps when Stanzi does something that causes us to write STANZI and then whatever he was trying to attempt, also in capital letters, and that, as we all know, is the international sign for Things Have Gone Awfully Wrong Here And It's Time Your Children Learned Some New Swear Words. You would think Stanzi would know better than to surprise linebackers by throwing a ball at their faces. You would think, and you would be wrong.

But without help from special teams or the Clones' mistakes--both wholly unpredictable factors--this doesn't look like more than a 2 TD game from this team. The key is getting the other drives into field goal range before they peter out--or at the very least far enough that ISU's not working with a short field. That's hardly a given.

When Iowa State has the ball

Just like Bret Meyer before him, Austen Arnaud is a known quantity at this point. He's a smart player and has a quick enough release that Iowa pressure in and of itself may not be effective. If this sounds eerily similar to Bret Meyer and Seneca Wallace, well, yeah, that's hardly an accident. At the same time, if Iowa sits in a soft zone and lets ISU have 6 yards a pop over the middle, then tightens up in the red zone where there's less ground to cover, then we're basically back to the last two years. It was good enough to beat Iowa one of those two times.

As CrossCyed pointed out in our weekly podcast, ISU goes four-deep at receiver and has a quick son of a bitch at tailback in Alex Robinson. Point of emphasis here: Their A. Robinson is A-Robs, ours is A-Rob. Something to be aware of before you find yourself agreeing with an ISU fan for 5 minutes before realizing you each thought the other was complimenting your running back.

And speakng of similarities in the running game, A-Robs has similar agility to UNI's Carlos Anderson, which means if the Oley Bullshit Fest of last week happens again, ISU's just gashing Iowa on the run and it doesn't really matter what the hell the defense does to stop Arnaud. You want to see Iowa melt down and lose by a huge margin? Step one, have the linebackers replicate their performance from last week. We're pretty sure Dr. Octopus--and by that we mean Norm Parker, of course--has already made that abundantly clear.

Prognosis

Turnovers are usually impossible to predict. Usually. But if faced with the prospect of choosing which QB's going to manage the game better between Arnaud and Stanzi--in Ames--you have to go with the known quantity until Stanzi proves himself capable of beating a team on the road by himself. He's got the talent, he's got the weapons, and he's got the experience. He's just also got the STANZIBALLS, and that is how angels lose their wings.

So with the sudden departure of what could have been the most laughably lopsided matchup of the day with Bulaga facing whodat DE Chris Lyle and an Iowa secondary that we don't trust to cover two good receivers, much less three or four, we're inclined to say 23-17 ISU, with the margin of victory being a touchdown gifted to the Clones by a Stanzi turnover in Iowa territory. Yes, that's unbecoming of an Iowa blog to predict, but we'd be more than happy to be proven wrong on this one. Plus, it's not like it matters what we predict; it's not like if Iowa loses, Ferentz is going to be in the locker room and say "boys, we almost had this... if that damn Internet had some more faith in us! I told you Twitter was bad news!" That doesn't happen. So we're saying 23-17 unless Stanzi takes a big step forward, at which point hooray GO IOWA AWESOME and we'll pretend this prediction never happened. 35-3 IOWA. Sure, it sounds pretty lopsided, but I've got a good feeling about the way our defense is going to bounce back. I'll even predict over 100 yards for Brandon Wegher. Just a hunch.

But in the meantime, GO HAWKS! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Bryan Bulaga Officially Out For Iowa State

Oops Pow Surprise — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:58:21 -0000

Good night, sweet prince?

Okay, you brought the gallons of gasoline and the matches, right? Okay, great. Let's get everyone here in a pile, pour the gasoline on ourselves, then just light this sumbitch on fire, because Bryan Bulaga, despite suffering no injury, is out for Iowa State.

From Ferentz, via On Iowa:

"Bryan Bulaga was hospitalized with an illness this past week and will not be available to play tomorrow," said Ferentz. "Bryan is doing much better, has been released and will accompany the team this weekend. We expect Bryan to return to his normal activities soon."

Rumors were all over the place up until Ferentz's announcement, so while the specifics still aren't known, at least we've got some idea of the situation. Not dying, traveling with the team, improving: all positive. Out for ISU: very, very negative.

A gent on the Hawks Nest who's been reliable in the past said this about the situation:

Today I watched Kyle Calloway, Dace Richardson, and even Dan Doering work at LT, along with a freshman named McMillan*. If it's true that he won't play....so much for o-line developing any continuity or cohesiveness yet. They did not look good today, but Binns and Clayborn were making things tough for everyone.

There were other nuggets, but there are so many practice-to-practice fluctuations in play that it's hard to read too much into "Wegher looked good today."

Either way, though, this is horrific news for Iowa. ISU doesn't exactly have a dominant rush end, but that only means that what was once a comical mismatch in terms of talent in Iowa's favor is now more of a wash. Considering the fact that Iowa's rushing game could use all the advantages it can get, "a wash at LT" won't suffice. ISU +6.5 is looking pretty enticing, isn't it?

*We really hope he means Casey McMillan, but it's far more likely he means Nolan MacMillan, who came in far more game-ready and suited for LT than Casey Mac, who is a volcano of a man who is best suited to playing all three interior line positions at once since he has four arms like Goro. We edited in the first names of the other linemen, so that way our blog engine can make it so you can click on them and it's fun.

Previewin': Iowa

Beauford — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 15:09:08 -0000

Maize n' Brew mercilessly drifts through yet another preview; this one long overdue. Ladies and Gentlemen, the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Previously: Illinois, Northwestern, Penn State

Explanation and indemnifications found: here

The Hawkeyes finished last season with a bang, beating Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks in the Outback Bowl 31-10 (of the SEC, no less!). As damn near the only Big Ten team to have anything approaching a resounding bowl victory, Hawkeye fans come into this season with super-high expectations, especially given the effusive praise the defense has received this off season. Of the teams that SCM, MnB Dave, and I have had "roundtable-like-substance" discussions about, Iowa was among the most divergent in opinion, with SCM checking in as "not too concerned" about the Iowa game, and MnB Dave stating it would be the toughest road test of the season. I landed in the middle. On the administrative side, Kirk Ferentz recently signed a 7-year 21-million dollar contract extension. This figures to keep him in Iowa for a long time; he is already the second longest tenured head coach in the Big Ten.

More Previewin' Dead Ahead.

2009 Schedule:

9/05	Northern Iowa	12:05 PM
9/12	@ Iowa State	12:05 PM
9/19	Arizona	3:35 PM
9/26	@ Penn State	8:00 PM
10/03	Arkansas State	TBA
10/10	Michigan	8:05 PM
10/17	@ Wisconsin	12:00 PM
10/24	@ Michigan State	7:00 PM
10/31	Indiana	TBA
11/07	Northwestern	TBA
11/14	@ Ohio State	TBA
11/21	Minnesota	TBA

A "meh-ish" OOC slate, followed by the typical Big Ten fare. I will point out that Iowa has a brutal road schedule this year, traveling to Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State - all of which figure to be angling for a New Years Day bowl.

One thing the media will harp on that is off base:

With the early departure of Shonn Greene, destroyer of defenses; worlds, to the NFL, people have been focusing on Jewel Hampton and Jeff Brinson as the flag carriers for the Hawkeye running game that was so effective last year (26th in the nation). What might matter more is the development of the interior offensive line who must find replacements at Center and Guard respectively. New starters-ish (see below) Rafael Eubanks and Dace Richardson look to step into the starting roles. Eubanks is certainly no slouch, a 4-star to Scout who competed for the starting position last year with departed senior Rob Bruggeman. Eubanks had started at Center as a Freshman and a Sophomore before Bruggeman ultimately won the job last year. However, Eubanks should do just fine in the middle. Dace Richardson looks to get the start at Right Guard. Dan Doering was named a starter last year until injury side-tracked much of the season. A 5-star all-world recruit in 2005 with offers from Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Tennessee, and anywhere else he mentioned as possibly having a shot, Iowa is downright USC-esque with their offensive line replacements. Lose a starter? Plug in another top-100 recruit. Richardson is another 5-star recruit. All have seen significant time in back-up rolls or, in Eubanks case, as a former starter, so it's not as if they're true freshman or anything.

The line looks like this, where ** denotes returning starter:

LT: Bryan Bulaga**	Jr.
LG: Julian Vandervelde**	Jr.
C: Rafael Eubanks	Sr.
RG: Dace Richardson	Sr.
RT: Kyle Calloway**	Sr

This offensive line has the potential to shove Iowa towards yet another stellar rushing year, regardless of Shonn Greene's departure.

One thing the media will completely ignore that is integral to this team's success:

While focusing, and deservedly so, on Iowa's stellar trio of linebackers, people are forgetting that they must replace the 95 combined starts of the ferocious defensive tackle duo of Mitch King and Matt Kroul. That Mitch King guy? Yeah, he was an All American. Kroul was a second-team All-Big-Ten selection last year as well. Replacing those bodies isn't going to be easy, and may put an additional strain on the linebacking corp that is expected to carry this defense. Another thing worth mentioning, courtesy of a discussion with OPS, is the fact that new Cornerback Shaun Prater is suspended for two games, and his backup Jordan Bernstine seems not to be able to stay healthy. A situation worth watching.

Most important contributors on each side of the ball:

Offensively, and I hate to pound this into the ground, but this is going to be the offensive line unit as a whole. Ricky Stanzi was good and effective when he could turn and hand the ball to Shonn Greene only throwing when necessary. Granted, he engineered the drive that ended Penn State's national title run, but I just wonder how he will fare if the running game isn't as dominant as it was last year. If the offensive line is as good as it looks on paper, we may not have to find out, which is good for the Hawkeyes, and bad for everyone they play.

Defensively, it's got to be Pat Angerer, the senior outside linebacker and All-Big-Ten selection from 2008. He is undoubtedly the leader of this defense, and with the departure of King and Kroul, will be asked to step up even further this year. A good season this year virtually guarantees a first-round selection come the 2010 NFL draft.

Area that scares you as Michigan Wolverines:

How about that defense? The unit ranked 5th in scoring defense last year in the country and returns all but three starters. The loss of King and Kroul hurts, but jeeeeeezus thats a talented, experienced group.

Area that makes you salivate as the Michigan Wolverines:

The strategy here, having not seen any games, seems to me to be stop the running game and let Stanzi beat you with his arm. While the line and the running backs have potential to be very very good, it still remains only potential. If there is a trouble spot on this team, it's the fact that if the running game isn't working, Stanzi remains a wild Stanzi-ball throwing wildcard.

Random factor that you think will come into play this season:

As always, the BHGP tailgate scares the shit out of me in only the way a few guys standing around a 2006 Hyundai in a gravel parking lot drinking beer can. Oops Pow; this is my serious face.

Overall Record:

9-3

Final Big Ten Standing:

3rd (after a tie for first, so 2nd if you want)

Bowl Destination:

Another New Years Day bowl, movin' on up to the Capital One to beat the shit out of another unwitting SEC team.

And for those coming via twitter, here.

It's Not Plagiarism If You Link to It Doodles on a Tablecloth

Hawkeye State — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 14:55:11 -0000

Loose, non-Media Day ends from the past couple of days:

No surprises at defensive end.

Fun With Depth Charts. UI football released the final pre-camp depth chart. Just a few surprises:

The injured Julian Vandervelde has been moved from co-first team left guard to first team right guard, reflecting (1) the continuation of Ferentz's "best five players" principle on the line, (2) growing confidence in Dace Richardson's ability to contribute significant minutes at left guard, and (3) a lack of progression from Dan Doering (now listed as second team right guard) and Andy Kuempel (in his annual free fall out of the depth chart, now co-second team left guard). It looks like Doering will start until Vandervelde is healthy, which may represent his last chance to cash in on that never-realized five-star potential.
Marvin McNutt is still the first team wideout, with Colin Sandeman and DJK listed as co-second team. This is either confirmation that McNutt is a serious contender as a wide receiver, or the continuous motivation of Johnson-Koulianos. I'd still bet more on the latter than the former, but the scales tip more toward McNutt with each successive depth chart.
DAS PAKIBOMB is all alone on the second line at halfback. Previously, he had shared that spot with Jeff Brinson. Not entirely surprising, given O'Meara's experience and pass blocking ability. If there is a need for significant carries from a backup halfback, I still think that back will be Brinson.

Still no decision on backup quarterback or the full rotation at defensive tackle, though a decision on either at this point would be a shock. Rafael Eubanks has the top line at center and Jordan Bernstine at left cornerback, though it remains to be seen how concrete those two positions are.

ROOSEVELT RAN THE SPREAD ON THE DIRTY SPANISH. Hail to the Orange's Toki Wartooth scores the story of Big Ten Media days: JoePa diagramming the 1942 Brown offense on a tablecloth:

Then I noticed that in front of Paterno, right next to his cup of coffee there was something written on the table cloth So I took a picture with my camera phone.

Can you tell what it is? Thats right its a play diagram.

Apparently Paterno wanted to demonstrate some of the intricacies of the spread offense to the reporters. The story was related as follows by one the photographers who heard the whole thing. (Note: All of this is paraphrase, not direct quote)

Joe wanted to show the reporters that the spread offense was nothing new, in fact according to Joe, "we were running it back in the '40s!"

Joe then proceeded to draw up an example of how he would run the backfield at Brown, drawing it up on the table cloth next to his coffee with a pen.

"Sometimes I would hand it off to him, sometimes to this guy, some times I would take it myself and sometimes I would throw it. But I couldn't throw for beans."

Paterno went on to describe how the single wing went out of fashion when those damn flappers took over the country and, much like the buzz fade and the Lord our Savior, only came back with the ascention of Tim Tebow.

They go X-Ray When Hayo Carpenter is on Campus. "Big Ten Snark of the Week" is not a sanctioned conference award, but it should be, and it should be given to Storminspank this week and throughout the month of August for this little bit of brilliance: Brewster Goggles! Not only do they make Eric Decker look like Jerry Rice, but they make all chili look hot and all sportswriters look morbidly obese.

Footnotes:

A Gazoo fluff piece on the relationship between Todd and John Lickliter (a piece that, as a coach's kid, I thoroughly enjoyed) included this quote from Todd on how the father and son handled this spring's mass transfers: "He’s probably been the more mature one than me at times. He knows that I’m their coach and there’s frustration, it’s probably not always pleasant and easy and It think he accepts that. But it doesn’t influence the way that he approaches things." Not exactly what you want to hear from your coach, but at least it's the truth.
Phil Steele's Experience Rating, the calculation of which demands the full-time computing power of three NASA supercomputers, two MIT-trained mathematicians, and one fast-talking Georgia fan, ranks Iowa #28 nationally and #2 in the conference in returning experience. The top team in both categories is none other than Minnesota.
The Big Ten Bloggers' crazy uncle, SpartyMSU, previews Iowa. The results? Sparty 24, Hawkeyes 21, ellipses 13.
Iowa ranks #12 in this year's Princeton Review party school ratings. Penn State beats out Florida for #1. Now if they could only do the same on the football field...

Two-Deep Audits: Offense

Oops Pow Surprise — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 12:30:05 -0000

The two-deeps used in these mid-conference audits are taken directly from The Gazette's Marc Morehouse, whose fine On Iowa blog is a fixture on our RSS readers.

IOWA OFFENSE

WR — DJK, Stross

Well, this is a good place to start. DJK's 2008 has been pretty meh, actually, and while it seems pretty obvious that Stross' legendary speed is gone and never coming back, he's turned into one hell of a possession receiver; his hands are probably the best on the team. DJK is physically capable of making plays that nobody else in the WR corps can make, but he hasn't put it all together for a dominant game since, like, Northwestern 2007. If there was an unsafe starting job on the offense at this point (Kuempel aside), this is it.

LT — Bulaga, Kuempel

Good jesus, Bryan Bulaga. The word on him in summer camp even as a true freshman was that he was a mean, nasty blocker. But nobody could have anticipated the total domination he has put on opposing defensive lines. He regularly plants defenders 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, and it is simply no exaggeration to say he deserves All-American consideration.

LG — Vandervelde/Eubanks, Gettis

What should have been the weak link of this line (I mean, did you see Vandervelde last year??) has been rock solid. Think--if the left guard position was getting abused even half as regularly as with last season, then it wouldn't matter one bit how good Bulaga is, running to the left would be an exercise in futility. But Vandervelde has improved substantially in his second season on the line, and the rotation with Eubanks is perfect for both players, as there's always a fresh pair of arms to throw at opposing DTs. I would not have guessed before the season that this setup would work--at all--but damned if it's not solid.

C — Bruggeman, Koeppel

I often wonder if losing Bruggeman with that ACL last season didn't hurt Iowa worse than anyone could have predicted. Remember, he was right in the mix for a starting spot before he blew that knee out, and by the time NIU rolled around in 2007, Travis Meade was starting. No disrespect to Travis, but, you know, he's not even on this two-deep even with a starting guard injured. Bruggeman has been solid, even if he's on that Beanie Baby tip and he fixes computers and stuff. Clearly no need to make a change here, especially since Josh Koeppel is the long snapper and Eubanks is audibly clearing his throat.

RG — Kuempel, Doering

Seth Olsen was ostensibly Iowa's best lineman coming into this season, even if nobody thinks so at this point. Still, he was hardly a weak link, ever, and you'd think his departure would hurt the line, but Andy Kuempel absolutely dominated in his absence against Wisconsin. Watch this video of Shonn Greene again, but this time, watch Kuempel's blocking at the RG spot.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but you'll notice all four touchdowns went Kuempel's way. He's very good at executing blocks at both the first and second levels, and if Olsen is unable to go, expect to see Kuempel making Brit Miller's life hell this Saturday. Olsen deserves this job when he's healthy, but the lack of dropoff is very encouraging.

RT — Calloway, Aeschliman

Speaking of improvements from Year 1 to Year 2, how about Kyle Calloway? Greene's last TD came on Calloway reach-blocking a corner all the way to the sideline before Greene even came into play. We get the notion that he's a lot happier not being the blindside blocker for the QB in this offense, unlike with the left-handed Christensen. Now he's usually got TE help (and Moeaki and Myers are both very capable blockers) and he's the point man on rollouts to the right, where Stanzi's most effective. Calloway's vast improvement has kept Aeschliman off the field, which is both A) very good (it means there's good blocking) and B) horrible (Aeschliman, at 6'8", 315, is comedically large and fun to watch).

White receivers celebrate like THIS...

TE — Myers, Reisner

Man, it sucks so much to not see "Moeaki" on this 2-deep. He's worked way too hard to be relegated to rehab for so much of his career at Iowa, and we hope he can make anything of his football career, either here or at some next level. Lord knows he's physically capable when he's healthy; hell, he's Iowa's most athletic tight end since Dallas Clark. Or Scott Slutzker. Or Fritz Fequiere. Luckily, Myers has been quite able, if unspectacular, in his replacement of Moeaki, both last year and this. Allen Reisner plays enough snaps to be a part of the offense, and you could legitimately make the case that Reisner is a better receiver than Myers. Both are among the top 5 TEs in the last 10 years for Iowa, though, and that bodes very well for the offense as a whole.

His hair's so... so soft!

QB — Stanzi, Christensen

This, I think, is safe. The Stanziballs are abating, but we'll need to see if for a sustained amount of time, especially with 4 games left, all of which (yes, even Purdue) can be won or lost by Iowa. Seriously, everything from 5-7 to 9-3 is in play. Anyway, you know how Iowa's offense runs, and it's the run setting up the pass. It was disastrous in 2006 and 2007, but it's happening now, and it's working. Stanzi's probably somewhere around the fourth best QB in the conference right now, depending on how you look at Juice Williams and Adam Weber, but he has certainly earned his starting spot. It's too bad for Christensen, because he suffered through an absolute sieve of an offensive line last year while his receiving corps collapsed in front of him. If Stanzi had to suffer through the 2007 offense while Christensen sat on the bench, then Christensen would be rocking this year while Stanzi sat on the bench with a nervous tic. Timing is everything.

WR — Brodell, Sandeman

Brodell has emerged as the real #1 of this offense, as he's been both a solid possession guy (especially on first down and off play action) and a good deep threat (most of Stanzi's shots downfield). Sandeman is much improved over last year, probably because of the 20 pounds of muscle he has put on, but he's not quite at a Big Ten level quite yet.

RB — Greene, Hampton

I think it's safe to say we're okay with this situation. VOTE GREENE PARTY 2008!

FB — Morse, Leppert

Look, it would be extremely stupid to blame the three straight losses on the fullback, but the fact of the matter is that the offense scored points with a lot more ease when Morse wasn't injured than when Leppert was filling in. Again, looking at Shonn Greene's rushing numbers, there's barely a difference in production--he kicks ass either way--but he seems to kick just a little more ass with Morse in there, who's even a more capable receiving target than Leppert. There's no sense in assigning bogeymen to Iowa's losses on the year, of course, but a healthy Brett Morse puts Iowa a whole lot closer to 8-4 or 9-3 on the season, and that's a realistic goal for a team like this.