SB Nation - Tony Moeaki

Iowa Motto: Workers of the world unite!

BirdGT — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Reporter: If you're in a 3rd and 5 situation, who gets the ball 56% of the time? Who gets it the other 34%? (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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I started pouring over Iowa's play calling yesterday trying to find trends, interesting nuances, and intricate caveats to Ken O'Keefe's offense. I didn't find any. Iowa has the most plain, upfront offense ever. It's incredibly balanced with the pass and run. The quarterbacks distribute the ball evenly to three main wide receivers and a tight end. Two running backs split the load quite effectively. I excluded punts, field goals, dead ball penalties, QB kneels, and penalties that resulted in no play. Here's a look graphically at O'Keefe's play calling based on the down and based on the distance to attain a first down/touchdown:

The two primary running backs for Iowa are Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher. I want to pronounce that WEE-gurr so from here on out pronounce it that way in your head. Iowa fans, feel free to correct me in the comments. Based on the data, neither seems to have really separated himself from the other. Robinson gains about 4.6 yards per carry to Wegher's 3.6. Even though Wegher has more touchdowns, Robinson has a better nose for the yard to gain. Wegher has attained a first down or touchdown on 20.4% of his carries as opposed to Robinson attaining the first or TD 25.7% of the time. The following charts display the distribution of the football (looks) per back and the carries distributed based on yards to gain a first or TD. In both graphs, I mistakenly left wide receiver reverses and QB sneaks in the "Other" category so keep that in mind.

Now, the interesting thing about Iowa's offense, like most NCAA offenses is that passing routes are typically designed to gain a certain amount of yardage not necessarily positive yardage like a run play. The vast majority of routes(e.g. outs, slants, flags, etc.) are designed with the intent to get the ball to one specific spot and the receiver will be tackled immediately. If he breaks a tackle, then that's a bonus. So that's how these graphs following were thought up. I am assuming that most college offenses are 1 to 2 read pass plays so the play is called with the intended receiver in mind.

A breakdown of Iowa's receivers shows three dominant receivers and a tight end catching almost all of the passes (~65%). The main dudes are Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Marvin McNutt, Trey Stross, and Tony Moeaki (TE). The three named dude is henceforth pronounced "cool-EE-anus". McNutt is pretty obvious/funny. Stross = "Straws". Moeaki will be pronounced mow-EE-ah-KEY. McNutt and Moeaki catch the touchdowns. DJK and Stross pick up yardage. Looks include incomplete passes. "Other" in this case includes everyone on the field not named Moeaki, McNutt, DJK, or Stross (may appear high due to stat keepers not keeping accurate track of incompletions). Also, the RB's in the charts are only Robinson/Wegher not backup dudes that see little to no significant PT.

As you can see from all the charts and numbers and stuff, Iowa doesn't care who has the ball in their hands. Robinson has a little bit better grasp of his position than Wegher but he's not an astronomical upgrade. McNutt is the guy to key on in the passing game but he opens things up for Moeaki over the middle and the other two dudes. If Iowa allocates a good chunk of their offense to intermediate passing and really distributes the football, we'll have a tough time defending them.

I think a big key will be limiting Robinson and Wegher on first down. The "effectiveness" of Iowa's offense is predicated on maintaining the run-pass balance. It gives O'Keefe more flexibility in playcalling and keeps pressure off his freshmen RB's. Iowa's in the bottom half of the Big 10 in sacks allowed. And interestingly enough, Iowa has allowed more sacks on third down than any other down; allowing a sack 10% of the time they drop back to pass on third down. Derrick Morgan we need you to play big.

BHGPODCAST EPISODE 14: In Which We Organize Things Into A List Without Being Asked To Do So

Oops Pow Surprise — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 06:22:36 -0000

Making a list, checking it twice, ruining Santa for you.

Slightly different approach to the podcast this week. First of all, of course, it's early; there's apparently a holiday coming up or something. Second, instead of having a guest, it was just Hawkeye State and me doing what we do best: enjoying each other's company ~~sexually~~. We shared a few laughs, maybe a couple of tears, and most of all, learned a little bit about ourselves. It was good.

Okay, actually, we just decided to commemorate the end of the regular season by ranking the Iowa games on a hazy, shifting mix of factors like performance, excitement, and consequence. After a season like that, how can we not reminisce?

Listen below or on iTunes.

BHGPodcast 14

Additionally, a full breakdown of the rankings from me, HS, Stoops Pow Surprise, and Ross Wow Burprise are after the break.

OPS

12. jNWU - Hell on Earth. None more need be said, lest we cry ourselves to sleep tonight. Again.
11. Arkansas State - Almost as excruciating as the #12 game, but through sheer boredom. Once that Epic Greenwood touchdown got called back and Iowa failed to convert with points, we knew it was going to be a long second half. Re-ignited the "Iowa doesn't deserve to be undefeated mantra."
10. UNI - An exciting game and a ludicrous finish. This was Iowa at its weakest--offensive linemen missing all over the place, Paki O'Meara as a starting tailback, and Greg Castillo getting scorched on the reg. The ending was almost too surreal to be exciting; it was the top play of the week, but it was so improbable that people just can't relate to it; after all, if a team's good enough to block two field goals in a row, why are they only leading a I-AA school by a point late in the 4th? Also, UNI's inability to make the I-AA playoffs was just a killer.
9. Minnesota - The quintessential ugly Iowa game, marred by missing offensive stars and featuring yet another stout performance by both defenses. Got Iowa to 10 wins. But unlike lots of games ahead of it, there was absolutely no excitement in this game, and all it did for clarification was to remind us that Ricky Stanzi's probably still got the starter spot on lock for the foreseeable future.
8. Ohio State - The only loss other than #12, but instead of being at #11 on account of god damn it Iowa lost, there's an argument to be made for putting it higher. Super-exciting, even though it left Iowa fans with a sour taste in their mouths for how the last two Iowa possessions went down. Very, very down. Still, it helped to legitimize the team, considering they were expected to get facefucked by the Buckeyes.
7. Indiana - What a weird game. Fun, and one of the few times we got to see the Iowa offense move the ball at will. We'd put it higher, but IU missed out on a bowl and we had to hear Iowa catch even more crap--this time for that tragic blown call in the end zone on the IU touchdown. We discuss precisely why that criticism sucks hard in the podcast, but fa real--it sucks. Still, fun game.
6. Michigan - The lustre wore off this game as the season went on--Michigan, you'll recall, wouldn't beat another I-A team all season long--but this game was fun, it was on national television, it had plenty of big plays, and Iowa was never really in danger of losing, despite the score. This is where we started to see "Ricky Stanzi As Big-Play QB" start to manifest itself.
5. Iowa State - Holy smokes, what a defensive performance. At the time, people chalked it up to a horrific mental breakdown of Austen Arnaud, but it sure seems now that his struggles weren't that much of a fluke. It was an extremely satisfying win in a town where those are awfully hard to come by for Ferentz and Iowa, and but for the fact that the game was D-U-N done in the middle of the third quarter, this might have even ranked higher.
4. Wisconsin - The fourth game in six where Iowa abused an opposing quarterback to the point that the game was within 10 points at the start of the 4th and still over for all intents and purposes. Wisconsin fans may throw the bullshit flag on account of Garrett Graham missing the second half with a concussion and John Clay's miserable post-injury performance (all while defying everything we know about medicine and science by being able to walk after that play).
3. Arizona - A game that looked better as the season went on, but what a fascinating contest: the advantage swung back and forth about five times before the Iowa defense clamped its jaws down on Matt Scott and the Arizona offense. We got to meet Adam Robinson as a legitimate tailback, and we got to see Adrian Clayborn run down a speed tailback in full stride from behind. In a straight line. Ordinarily, we'd chalk that up as Clayborn's play of the season. That designation didn't last long.
2. Michigan State - You could even say number one for this game, and we wouldn't put up a huge fight. It was, whether the SEC fans want to admit it, an SEC game: a defensive slugfest with casualties strewn about the field for 50 minutes, then a mad dash to the finish line. As fourth quarters go, there's few as entertaining in the Ferentz era, and the last drive made believers of us all, if only for a week or two. If anything's to pull it down, it's the consequence of losing three starters for multiple games, a fact that would eventually catch up to Iowa. Still, wow, what a game.
1. Penn State - But there could be only one, and it had to be the game that put Iowa squarely in the national attention. Even after PSU's one big play to open the game, the Nittany Lions were up by 5 going into the fourth quarter, but still fully dreading how the rest of the game played out. Then Adrian Clayborn happened, the lead happened, and the Daryll Clark Implosion happened. This game was the catalyst for all sorts of themes for the season, it was emblematic of everything we liked and hated about this team--right down to the nervousness and second-guessing of Ferentz as he lined up for a field goal with an 8-point lead and under 20 seconds on the clock--and it was as euphoric as we'd been after a win since, well, the last time we played Penn State.

HS

12. jNWU -- Ugh. Might actually deserve higher billing because of the Stanzi injury, but it's just Northwestern, right?

11. A-State -- Cupcake where the final score looked much worse than it really was. This really wasn't in doubt until the last 2 minutes.

10. Minnesota -- A game so ugly, it should be taken out back and shot. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), by the time it got here, nobody more than 50 miles from Iowa City cared.

9. Michigan -- At the time (before UM turned into MSU and went all death-spiraly), an important test. Now, an embarrassingly close game in prime time.

8. Northern Iowa -- Let's admit the obvious: It was the second-most exciting game Iowa played this year. Also, the bizarre two-FG-block ending made it into the MSM consciousness (it was the Sportscenter #1 play of the day on the opening weekend of the season) and set the stage for the "But Iowa needed two blocked field goals to beat Northern Iowa" meme that followed. Don't underestimate that effect on the current polls and, in turn, the BCS standings.

7. Indiana -- Because Iowa had entered the national consciousness by this point (it was the highest-rated 11:00 kickoff on ESPN all year), and because the officiating was so incredibly horrible and effectively kept Iowa in the game, and because the media is stupid, Indiana replaced UNI as the reason why Iowa had to be stopped. Terry Bradshaw, of all people, put a dagger in this team the day after this game, based solely on the fact that the refs fucked up a clear touchdown that would have allowed Indiana to lose by 11 instead of 18. Rage followed.

6. Iowa State -- They're probably going to a bowl, but they're still Iowa State, and beatdowns are expected. Nevertheless, it was a cathartic curbstomping of a rival on the road, it set off the Tyler Motherfuckin' Sash movement, and it was the only time all year when Iowa looked like a worldbeater against a clearly inferior opponent.

5. Arizona -- Looks better now, but at the time Arizona was a middling Pac-10 opponent with a terrible quarterback and a halfback with good numbers against Northern Arizona and Central Michigan. Set the stage for the Penn State game, though; without a win, we're probably not in prime time when Clayborn goes wild on Darryl Clark.

4. Ohio State -- OK, yes, it was a loss. But at the time, with the Northwestern game finishing the undefeated season and knocking out Stanzi, Iowa was staring in the face of a season-crushing blowout. To walk into the Shoe with a first-time starter at quarterback, a true freshman at halfback, and a MASH unit on the line, and to then take Ohio State to overtime on national television after being behind by 14, was practically inconceivable. It proved more about this team than half of this season's wins. Also, it was an incredible, epic game.

3. Wisconsin -- Ran.

2. Michigan State -- out of.

1. Penn State -- Time.

[Ed. note--He talked about these games at great length in the podcast. Ha ha ha, I just said great length.]

StoopsMyAss

12. Arkansas State – weird and I try to act as though it did not happen.
11. Wisconsin – the most typical of Iowa’s wins.
10. Minnesota – a win that was expected but not this way.
9. Ohio State – a loss that was expected but not this way.
8. Michigan – national TV and we overcame. Kept the ball rolling.
7. Arizona – introduced the defense to America, and Iowa for that matter.
6. jNWU – end of NC run. Unexpected and sad.
5. Iowa State – needed this one for the psyche, and got it in spades.
4. Michigan State – sensational. Probably deserves to be rated more highly but the season is filled with crucial moments.
3. Indiana – most improbable game I have ever seen Iowa play.
2. Penn State – confirmed the potential of this team. Winning in front of 100K+ who were blood thirsty for revenge. Sweet.
1. UNI – the whole season might have turned on one play. Uh, sorry, two plays.

RossWB

12. jNWU -- From ecstasy to agony in about 15 minutes. This went from looking like yet another cathartic romp over a hated rival (see below) to a season-deflating loss. Sadly, Stanzi getting sandwiched between two purple assholes will be one of the lingering and defining moments of the season for me, if only because it will prompt so much "what if..." daydreaming.

11. Arkansas State -- The game that firmly cemented the 2009 Iowa Hawkeyes as a team that was helpless to do anything but play to the level of their competition. Great when playing Penn State or Ohio State... near-disastrous when playing Arkansas fucking State. The stubborn insistence on trying to develop a running game was probably the biggest problem here -- Stanzi could have (and should have) chucked it deep on the hapless Red Wolf secondary all day.

10. UNI -- A win that actually seems worse now than it did twelve weeks ago, now that the the myth of UNI being an unstoppable I-AA powerhouse has been fatally punctured by now. The two blocked field goals will be an unforgettable memory, but we're better off pretending that it happened against someone else, because it should never have happened against a team like UNI. Sure, there are plenty of excuses to toss out -- Iowa was trying to find a running back while juggling a slew of missing pieces on offense (and a few on defense) and UNI was super-motivated to try and knock off the big-time program in the state -- but at the end of the day they're all lame rationalizations for the fact that we played like shit against an inferior opponent... and managed to get away with it. In hindsight, it was an unsettling but eerily accurate harbinger of the season to come. And, hey, those blocked field goals... good luck ever seeing that again in your lifetime.

9. Minnesota -- It pains me to bag on a game that featured a stellar performance by the defense (shutting out a hated rival and keeping the best damn rivalry trophy in sports = WIN), but let's also not forget that Minnesota's offense has, for the most part, been as lethal as a carton of yogurt this season. They had no offensive identity, no even mildly consistent offensive playmakers with Decker injured, and a quarterback that badly regressed. They stunk and we were far from the only defense to make them look foolish. And that doesn't even address the issue of the offense, which was only slightly less rancid than the Gopher attack. So through five full halves of work,Vandenberg has had three epic stinkbombs and two quite good halves. That the two quite good halves came on the road, in Columbus, against Ohio State, in some of the most pressure-packed stakes imaginable is so improbable that I would chalk it up as sheer delusion if I hadn't witnessed it (and countless other "WTF that cannot possibly be real" moments this season). Suffice to say, we should probably hold off on printing up the "VANDENBERG IS THE MANDENBERG" t-shirts for the time being -- unless we plan to put a picture of Two-Face on there as well. (Hey, go big or go home in the world of intellectual property infringement.)

8. Michigan -- Like the UNI win, a close win that became more embarrassing as the season progressed and we got a better idea of how good (or, um, not good) Michigan truly was. Their two-point margin of defeat in this game represented their smallest margin of defeat in any of their Big Ten losses this season, which is faintly humiliating. The Iowa defense also gave up 28 points (well, technically just 21, but just roll wit hit), the most it's given up in the last two-plus years. The two things that wound up damaging Iowa's season the most (aside from injuries) -- a wildly incosnistent offense and an inability to really clamp down on a top runnig game -- both reared their ugly heads here.

7. Indiana --- For entertainment value, this game was hard to beat. Between Sash's rigoddamndiculous pinball pick-six to Stanzi's apocalyptic third quarter and jaw-dropping fourth quarter, this was perhaps the craziest and most improbable Iowa win in Kinnick since the 2002 win over Purude. Big, big plays were the order of the day and Iowa delivered. Stanzi delivered maybe the worst and best quarter I've ever seen from an Iowa quarterback -- in one half, no less.

6. Arizona -- The only game all season I was unable to watch live, which might be one reason I find it difficult to have strong feelings about it. It was a solid, workmanlike performance, which is notable only because there were so few performances like that by Iowa this season. It would be nice to say that this was a win that got much better as the season progressed and the Wildcats kept winning, but that rings a little hollow when the quarterback that led them to so much success was mainly a bystander during the Iowa game.

5. Wisconsin -- One of the more impressive in-game turnarounds of the season. From 10-0 down, getting mauled on the ground by the Badger running game, to running off the last 20 points of the game and stifling the Badger rushing attack (thanks in part to a cringe-worthy sandwich tackle job on John Clay). This was also perhaps the cleanest game Stanzi played all year -- no turnovers and some beautiful, accurate passes to Tony Moeaki and DJK to score touchdowns/keep drives running.

4. Iowa State -- Deeply satisfying and significant for a few reasons: in hindsight, it was a clear indicator of this team's ability to significantly raise its level of play on the road, and was also a win that gained a bit more cache in retrospect when it became clear that this wasn't the usual putrid Iowa State outfit, but a halfway decent team. Plus, on a personal level, not only was it a win in Ames, the site of considerable misery and angst in 2005 and 2007, but it was a Fry Era-level beatdown. And it gave birth to the legend of Tyler "Motherfucking" Sash.

3. Ohio State -- The best loss by an Iowa team since, um... a really long time. I was going to say Texas in 2006, but in terms of proving legitimacy and boosting national respect this loss did far more on those counts. Aside from the Pryor meltdown in Purdue this year, no one played them as tight as Iowa did, and doing it in Columbus (a house of horrors for Iowa for at least two decades), and with a freshman backfield (including a quarterback making his first start)... absolutely remarkable. And the fourth quarter of this game was stupid exciting. That said, this will always be a deeply bittersweet game -- to be so close to the Rose Bowl and then to have it end the way it did... sigh. Intellectually, I can understand and support Ferentz's end of game decision, but I'll never be able to totally erase the "what if" argument. Coming so close to the Rose Bowl and coming up short is always going to lead to a strange concoction of pride, pain, and second-guessing.

2. Penn State -- Maybe Penn State wasn't as great as their ranking before this game suggested... but still. A win over a top-five team, at night, in the rain, in front of a revenge-crazed "Whiteout" crowd is still pretty damn satisfying. The defense was otherworldly after the first few Penn State drives and the way they caused Daryl Clark to meltdown in the second half was extraordinary. And Clayborn's punt block touchdown will deservedly take its place in the annals great Hawkeye plays. This game confirmed preseason hopes that this might actually wind up being a special season.

1. Michigan State -- I'm probably a bit based since I was here live, but even watching this later on TV, I thought this was a pretty amazing game. Some people may want to diminish it since Sparty wound up pulling a "same ol' Sparty" routine down the stretch and going 6-6, but I think a more charitable interpretation would be that they put a ton into this game and never fully recovered from what happened. Being there live, I had no doubt that the players and fans were absolutely amped to the gills for this game and the players certainly played like it - especially on defense, where they were flying around like tackle-crazed lunatics. This game may have done more to damage Iowa's Big Ten/national title aspirations than the Northwestern game thanks to the body count it left in its wake. Losing two of the most consistently effective pieces of our offense (Robinson and Richardson), our best punt returner by far (Sandeman), and the quarterback of the defense (Greenwood) was a hugely painful blow. That said, this game was something else, full of brutally hard hits (on both sides), a pair of ridiculous goalline stands inside the 2-yard line, and a final three minutes or so that was completely batshit insane, what with a fucking hook-and-ladder and the immortal Stanzi-to-McNutt play.

All-Big Ten Awards Announced, Swept Once Again By Toto

Oops Pow Surprise — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:00:45 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

about 1 month ago: Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in Iowa City, Iowa. Northwestern won 17-10. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Good news, everyone!* The Big Ten announced its picks for the all-conference teams. Naturally, the offensive and defensive player of the year are both Terrelle Pryor. Okay, not true; he's not even honorable mention.

But there's plenty of actual good news. First, the devil media named Kirk Ferentz coach of the year, and here he is reminding them that they can go suck it and he hasn't forgiven them for the slights of the regular season.

Such language, Kirk!

As for the players, here's the link to the voting results. The media named Bryan Bulaga to the first team on offense, while the second team featured four of his friends from the line: Rafael Eubanks, Dace Richardson, Kyle Calloway, and Tony Moeaki.

On defense, the first team had a little more Iowa representation; Adrian Clayborn, Pat Angerer, and Tyler Sash all received their no-brainer merits. On the second team, Brett Greenwood and Amari Spievey. Iowa put eight players on the media's honorable mention team: Ryan Donahue, Broderick Binns, A.J. Edds, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Karl Klug, Daniel Murray, Adam Robinson, and Ricky Stanzi.

Not surprisingly, the coaches had a slightly higher opinion of the Hawkeyes; here's the link to their voting results. Bryan Bulaga was named their offensive lineman of the year(!!!), an award the media doesn't give out. Bulaga is joined on the first team by Moeaki and Richardson, both of which are worthy selections. Calloway and Eubanks didn't make the second team--not sure why on Calloway--but Derrell Johnson-Koulianos snuck in on a three-player tie for second-team WR.

On defense, the coaches agreed with the media in putting Sash, Clayborn, and Angerer on the first team roster. They also added Amari Spievey; as coaches, they're more likely to know that the reason Spievey didn't have a ton of picks wasn't that he's not good at football, but that there's just no hope in throwing at him; Spievey was a machine this season, and we're starting to lose hope that he's got more than one game left in an Iowa uniform. A.J. Edds is the lone Hawkeye on the defensive second team.

For honorable mention, it's as follows:Christian Ballard, Kyle Calloway, Ryan Donahue, Brent Greenwood, Karl Klug, and Adam Robinson.

Full All-BXI teams and a few thoughts are after the break.

MEDIA

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
QB	Daryll Clark, Penn State	Mike Kafka, Northwestern
RB	Evan Royster, Penn State	Brandon Saine, Ohio State
RB	JOHN CLAY, Wisconsin	Ralph Bolden, Purdue
WR	Tandon Doss, Indiana	Blair White, Michigan State
WR	Keith Smith, Purdue	Zeke Markshausen, Northwestern
C	Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State	Rafael Eubanks, Iowa
G	Justin Boren, Ohio State	Jon Asamoah, Illinois
G	John Moffitt, Wisconsin	Dace Richardson, Iowa
T	Bryan Bulaga, Iowa	Kyle Calloway, Iowa
T	Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin	Dennis Landolt, Penn State
TE	Garrett Graham, Wisconsin	Tony Moeaki, Iowa
PK	Brett Swenson, Michigan State	Stefan Demos, Northwestern

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
DL	Adrian Clayborn, Iowa	Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DL	Brandon Graham, Michigan	Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
DL	Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue	Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
DL	O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin	Jared Odrick, Penn State
LB	Pat Angerer, Iowa	Ross Homan, Ohio State
LB	GREG JONES, Michigan State	Josh Hull, Penn State
LB	Navorro Bowman, Penn State	Sean Lee, Penn State
DB	Tyler Sash, Iowa	Brent Greenwood, Iowa
DB	Donovan Warren, Michigan	Amari Spievey, Iowa
DB	Sherrick McManis, Northwestern	Brad Phillips, Northwestern
DB	Kurt Coleman, Ohio State	David Pender, Purdue
P	Zoltan Mesko, Michigan	Jeremy Boone, Penn State

COACHES

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
QB	Daryll Clark, Penn State	Mike Kafka, Northwestern
RB	Evan Royster, Penn State	Brandon Saine, Ohio State
RB	John Clay, Wisconsin	Ralph Bolden, Purdue
WR	Eric Decker, Minnesota	Tandon Doss, Indiana*
WR	Blair White, Michigan State	Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa* Keith Smith, Purdue*
C	Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State	Rafael Eubanks, Iowa* Joel Nitchman, Michigan State*
G	Dace Richardson, Iowa	Jon Asamoah, Illinois
G	John Moffitt, Wisconsin	Justin Boren, Ohio State
T	Bryan Bulaga, Iowa	Rodger Saffold, Indiana
T	Dennis Landolt, Penn State	Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
TE	Tony Moeaki, Iowa	Garrett Graham, Wisconsin
PK	Brett Swenson, Michigan	Stefan Demos, Northwestern

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
DL	Adrian Clayborn, Iowa	Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DL	Brandon Graham, Michigan	Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
DL	Jared Odrick, Penn State	Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
DL	O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin	Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
LB	Pat Angerer, Iowa Linebacker	A.J. Edds, Iowa
LB	Greg Jones, Michigan State	Ross Homan, Ohio State
LB	Navorro Bowman, Penn State	Sean Lee, Penn State
DB	Tyler Sash, Iowa	Donovan Warren, Michigan*
DB	Amari Spievey, Iowa	Sherrick McManis, Northwestern*
DB	Brad Phillips, Northwestern	Brandon King, Purdue*
DB	Kurt Coleman, Ohio State	David Pender, Purdue* Jay Valai, Wisconsin*
P	Zoltan Mesko, Michigan	Jeremy Boone, Penn State

Okay. While we're quite happy that Bulaga got such high accolades for the season, we can't be alone in thinking that he was hardly the best lineman in Iowa City, much less the Big Ten. He was either on the sidelines or out of sorts for the majority of the season, and we still haven't seen the elephant-tusk-covered road grader from last season on display. He totally would have deserved a preseason OL of the year, but his performance over 2009 didn't merit such superlatives.

This is hardly a new development from these postseason lists, however; generally, the lists are crafted off of the preseason lists, and anybody whose knee blew out with more than four games left was excised and replaced by someone else. After all, Bulaga was only a second-team All-BXI player last season, even though he was by far the best lineman on the team in 2008. Seth Olsen, meanwhile, had the good fortune to be a first-teamer to start the year, so he was on the first team after 2008, despite a relatively blah senior campaign; we'd have put him about fourth on the list of Iowa linemen for 2009, behind the two bookends at tackle and Rob Bruggeman at center.

Essentially, Bulaga won the award in 2009 for his play in 2008.

At the end of the day, this comes down to stats; there aren't any for linemen, despite the ill-fated attempt to get the "pancake" introduced about a decade ago (for this, we blame Orlando Pace). It's assumed that linemen are sure things, and that as long as they stay healthy, the narrative has stayed true. After all, without stats, most scribes have no time (or no idea) how to watch linemen individually.

Frankly, though it's a subjective stat, we'd love to see how linemen grade out per play (remember that Blake Larsen famously graded at 100% during his senior season at Atlantic; lord, had those knees survived...) Without having the means to undertake such an activity ourselves, we'd imagine that if you graded each Iowa offensive lineman, Kyle Calloway or Dace Richardson would probably be at the top.

If they're not, which is possible, then it would probably be the guy who didn't even get an honorable mention: Riley Reiff. He was stout in relief of Bulaga--hell, we're pretty sure O'Brien Schofield would not have batted Reiff around like a catnip mouse, unlike some Iowa linemen--and he basically forced his way into the starting lineup even before Big Dace went down. But since he wasn't even a projected starter, to say nothing of a preseason honoree, Reiff didn't have much of a chance for postseason mention. Shame, really; dude is legit, and he hasn't even filled out his frame yet.

As for the skill players, it's a little disappointing that Stanzi only made one honorable mention team. But we get how that can happen. Spievey only making second team in the media is flatly ridiculous. If he'd put together that same season in an Ohio State uniform, he'd be getting All-American talk.

Other than that, we don't have a ton of beef; Stanzi killed himself by leading the conference in interceptions when he went down to injury, and the rest of the offensive skill players were far too inconsistent or hurt to merit much consideration. Jeremiha Hunter not getting any honorable mention love is a little disconcerting, but the BXI was lo-ho-hoaded at linebacker this season; we're not quite sure whom we'd place him above. He'll get some love in 2010 if he stays healthy. Also--given the play of Jeff Tarpinian in relief--if Hunter stays healthy between now and next September, there's no position battle at weakside backer next season, right?

So, all in all, a fair list, even if the voting on offensive linemen is basically a year behind schedule. It's a year behind for everyone else, after all. Anybody else that you folks think got shafted? Did Marvin McNutt deserve a nod, or is he still a year away from recognition?

*/Farnsworth'd

Not the 12-0 We Wanted Most, But a 12-0 We'll Gladly Take

Oops Pow Surprise — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:05:29 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

WHO WANTS STEEL RIBS OR STEEL HAM? (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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So. A month ago, if you'd been told that "12-0" was happening today, you'd probably be getting all giddy and buying a ticket for Pasadena. Of course, that 12-0 didn't come to fruition, on account of the Stanzageddon and all, but we do have the next best thing: Iowa 12, Minnesota 0.

Was it ugly? Christ yes, it was ugly; Iowa was 1-12 on 3rd down conversions, and theirs wasn't even the ugliest offense of the game.

Minnesota's offense, on the other hand, was one of the worst we've seen all season long. The two Minnesota quarterbacks - Adam Weber and MarQueis Gray - combined to go 14-42 through the air for 153 yards and one interception. That's an average of 3.6 yards per attempt, which is melt-your-retinas ugly. Oh, and Weber lost two of his three fumbles. Yes, Minnesota accounted for more yards than Iowa--201 to 171--but they needed 18 more plays to do so, meaning Iowa's own train wreck of an offense was at least more efficient. Sort of.

As for that Iowa offense, what's there to say? They clearly missed Adam Robinson's running ability when he went down with a re-injury of his ankle; he should be back in plenty of time for the bowl, so no real harm done here. But Brandon Wegher, from Dakota Dunes, South Dakota, one of the great town names in America (/Musberger'd), is really not an every-down back yet, and has no business trying to fill that role right now. That's not to say he's a bust or anything nearly as dour; it's just that there's a reason why, if all the tailbacks were healthy, he'd be about 4th or 5th string right now (Jewel Hampton, Robinson, Jeff Brinson, and maybe Paki Bomb). He's just a true freshman. Most true freshmen aren't ready to run the rock 25 times in a game--especially when they're evidently so green with the playbook that they're telegraphing every run play before the snap.

In fact, if this game proved anything, it's that injuries have wrecked any hope or semblance of consistency for the Iowa offense; James Vandenberg was the 20th different player to start on offense for Iowa this season. For the Iowa defense? 15--and two of those extra four starters were at the same position (Greg Castillo and Willie Lowe, for Shaun Prater at LCB). That's remarkably important; continuity is a big deal in a team sport like football, and as much as Kirk Ferentz and his staff preach the importance of the "next man in," with the notable exception of Riley Reiff, there's always been a marked dropoff in performance from starter to backup.

Thus, getting healthy for the bowl game and getting the best possible lineup (Bulaga, Dace Richardson, Rafael Eubanks, Reiff, and Kyle Calloway on the line; A-Rob and Brett Morse in the backfield; Trey Stross, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, and Tony Moeaki as receivers) would be a welcome development for the offense. How many times has that ideal lineup been healthy and starting all at once? Twice: at Wisconsin and about the first 10 minutes of at Michigan State.

And let's not even get started on losing Hampton and Brinson before the season.

Yes, the above lineup is pretty unimpeachably Iowa's best; while Marvin McNutt is obviously talented, he's done his best as the third receiver instead of starting at wideout--think back to Mo Brown in 2002, for example. Unless something bad happens in practice between now and the bowl game, the Iowa offense is going to look a lot better, and it'll be independent of the playcalling (which always looks a lot better when the players can reliably execute it).

As for the defense, they were utterly lights-out; Weber was harassed throughout the day, and it's to his credit that he was "only" sacked five times. The Iowa defensive line combined for 7.0 TFL and 4 of the 5 sacks, and they abused the offensive line so thoroughly that Bob Griese was left questioning everything about the Gopher unit and their commitment to the sport. That was nice.

Really, this was as vintage a 2009 Iowa game as any this season. The offense struggled through injuries to key contributors but put up enough points to take a double-digit lead, and the defense choked the opposing offense to death long before the final whistle sounded. It's never been pretty, but at the end of the day, you cannot argue with this: it's another 10-win season for Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes. Well done, men. Well done indeed.

Now let's go cook up some steel bacon for dinner.

The Last Gopher Friday Preview Until Pizza Pizza? Minnesota at Iowa, November 21, 2009

JG2112 — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:15:14 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

I knew life wouldn't be good once I got kicked out of the Institute of Technology.

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Give me or Tressel the Patriots. We would have punted on third down. 10:06 AM Nov 17th from TweetDeck
- from the "Not Kirk Ferentz" Twitter stream - http://twitter.com/NotKirkFerentz

Saturday is the end of the college football year, for all intents and purposes. outside of some rivalry games and conference title games. Then onto the bowls. Really, other than Florida/Alabama and Texas (or maybe TCU?) , the 66 or so bowl participants will be taking part in exhibition games in late December and early January in mostly warm climates, of which the most impressive part of the experience is usually the gifts given to the student-athletes that somehow are allowed under NCAA rules (example: last year each Gopher got a Vizio 26-inch LCD HDTV, a Bulova watch, and a Hat at the Insight Bowl.) Besides the gifts, ask Corey Wootton, Willis McGahee or Glen Mason: only bad things really happen in bowl games for the participants.

But back to tomorrow, when Tim Brewster will try for a significant milestone - his first rivalry game win. Last week Brew got his first win in November as a college coach. This week, a Big Ten win in November will increase his record in rivalry games to a robust 1-7. This comes on the heels of Maturi's weird comments to Sid in Thursday's Star Tribune, which indicated an endorsement of the program's direction but a peculiar non-endorsement of the coach. And while we can be literal and say that the only way that Brewster's job comes under fire is if they lose the next two games by 100 in the aggregate, the fact it's even being suggested is foolish in my opinion, but could be suggestive of things going on at Fort Bierman.

Iowa enters this game having endured a rough November thus far. First off, Northwestern put paid to Iowa's national championship hopes in Kinnick, and then Kirk Ferentz's lack of backbone gave away the outright Big Ten Title to Ohio State (pending their beatdown of Michigan). Oh yeah, Minnesota won't be the beneficiary of any Stanzi-balls on Saturday, either.

That really is unfortunate, because the backup QB, freshman James Vandenberg, played rather well in the Horseshoe, completing 20/33 for 233 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs (one at the end of the 1st half, one in OT). Playing in front of friendly fans may make him more relaxed. Then again, the pressure of Senior Day and the Pig may make him channel his inner Stanzi and get acquainted with BIG PLAYE TRAYE.

Looking at the rest of the offense, you know what you're getting with Iowa. The big hogs up front are interchangeable and generally awesome. LT Brian Bulaga is the standout. The Hawkeyes like running stretch plays where a TE (normally Tony Moeaki) will go in motion to Bulaga's side, and whichever RB is in the game (Adam Robinson, Brandon Wegher, Paki O'Meara) will plow behind those two for big chunks of yardage. As has been the case this year, Minnesota's DTs need to keep Iowa's line occupied so Campbell, Triplett, Lawrence and/or Cooper can flow to the ball, attack the lead blocker, and cut the play back for the help to arrive. If the D-line is pushed around and Iowa's line can get to the second level, this game will get ugly.

That's without mentioning Iowa's passing game, which as mentioned above, went for over 230 yards on Ohio State last week. Marvin McNutt is a former QB with significant height (please grow six inches Carter kthx) and superb speed, and I think every Minnesota fan knows about Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. Simmons (who returned to practice Wednesday after recovering from a leg ailment) and Marcus Sherels are carrying injuries which may make them vulnerable in pass coverage.

As for Iowa's defense, yikes. On the line, meet 2007 Cretin Derham Hall grad Broderick Binns (7 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks), along with Adrian Clayborn (8.5 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss and THAT punt block against Penn State) and Karl Klug. The linebackers include A.J. Edds (65 tackles), Pat Angerer (119 tackles) and Jeremiah Hunter (83 tackles), and if you look to the secondary, meet Tyler Sash (6 INTs, 76 tackles), Amari Spievey, and Brett Greenwood.

This is the kind of defense that will give the Gopher offense fits (namely, competent and well-drilled). Iowa rarely sends its linebackers on blitzes because the front four can get pressure by itself. In almost every Gopher game this year we've watched this happen, so I'm even more concerned about tomorrow's game. Other than against Sparty, the Gophers, since the Penn State game, have had horrific pass protection which has led to Adam Weber looking like a true freshman in the pocket.

And sorry everyone, but this isn't the game to fully let MarQueis Gray loose on the football world. Brewster had his chance last week and decided not to, which suggests either coaching stubbornness or player incapabilities at this point. Gray, at this point in his development, would have been most effective against a team with slower defensive players who were frequently blitzing him and leaving him wide open running lanes, such as on November 14th at TCF. The last place you want Gray deciphering coverages is against a Norm Parker-drilled defense of veteran players, whose LBs don't even need to blitz you to get pressure.

So tomorrow you can expect Weber to be in the pocket, with lots of max protect (TEs and RBs) to provide support for Alford, Wills and Carufel in the hopes that Weber is given more than 3 seconds to wait for his WRs to break free from what are excellent Herkeye defensive backs. Once again, Hoese and Tow-Arnett will likely be utilized extensively in the passing game, trying to break the tackles of those excellent LBs. Blergh.

Oh, and have I mentioned that Brandon Green missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury and is questionable for Saturday? Calling Messrs. McKnight, Stoudermire, and yes, Carpenter, please be ready for action.

Anything else? Yeah. The forecast Saturday: around 55 and sunny.

Also, an aside: yeah, I recognize this is a conspiracy theory, BUT. The slate of games on Saturday is one of the least attractive collection of games I can ever remember this late in the season (thanks Florida and Alabama, among others, for scheduling soup cans this weekend). One of ESPN/ABC's featured games is Kansas at Texas.

Anyone else find it uniquely coincidental that ESPN is releasing an amazing slow drip of information from multiple sources (where have these former players been since August?) about Kansas HC Mark Mangino's bad temper and abuse at practice the same week it needs to drum up interest in a rather lackluster prime time game? At all?

Okay.

So what about Saturday? Minnesota has a chance here. It needs to attack Iowa's defense straight-on, because it can be run on. Weber cannot expect to spend much time, if any, looking in the pocket, and Fisch should not abandon the running game and put Weber into obvious passing situations.

As for Minnesota on defense, they need to roll support over to whoever is guarding the tall McNutt. Of course, this leaves the Gophers susceptible to either Johnson-Koulianos or Moeaki, but, you've got to try something.

Bottom line: games this year in Iowa City have been close. Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Michigan, Indiana and NW were really all very tense, close games. Saturday SHOULD be no different. If the Gophers are not competitive, however, I guess Maturi will be having a discussion with Mr. Brewster about what is expected when the Gophers get their new TVs in Arizona. I don't see it happening.

Iowa 27 - Minnesota 20.

Two Years Ago Today...

RossWB — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:07:59 -0000

Worst. Senior Day. Ever.

Funny how much can change in just two years. Two years ago today the Iowa football team suffered arguably its worst -- or most humiliating, at least -- defeat of the last decade. Oh, there have been more lopsided defeats and there have probably even been defeats to teams worse than the 2007 Western Michigan Broncos (who were a pretty middling outfit). Many of those defeats happened during the formative years of Kirk Ferentz's tenure, when his Iowa teams played hard but frequently lacked talent and/or experience. Or they happened against bitter in-state rivals or hyper-motivated conference rivals, so it was easy to rationalize the loss by saying "they wanted it more."

But the November 17, 2007 loss to Western Michigan didn't fit any of those easy categories. It was far from the most talented or most experienced squads of the Ferentz Era, but it wasn't completely lacking in those departments, either. It featured Albert Young and Damian Sims, who had been a dynamite combination in years past. The defensive front seven was pretty well-stocked with talent and experience, too, between Kenny Iwebema, Mitch King, Matt Kroul, Bryan Mattison, Mike Klinkenborg, and Mike Humpal. It wasn't as if the team had nothing to play for, either -- beyond the standard pride of Senior Day, they needed one more win to ensure themselves a trip to a bowl game (Western Michigan didn't even have that to play for; they were just acting as spoilers).

Defeat and misery that week wasn't exclusive to the action on the field, either. The week of November 17, 2007 also saw the first news reports of a sexual assault involving Cedric Everson and Abe Satterfield. Eight months later those reports would explode into a nightmarish scandal that threatened to paint Kirk Ferentz, the athletic department, and the University of Iowa administration as badly negligent and aloof at best and guilty of conspiracy and obstruction of justice at worst; it made Iowa football the leading example of "Programs Gone Wild." That was two years ago.

Today, it seems like a lifetime ago. On the field, Iowa went from a team that was pushed around by Western Michigan to a team that was a play or two away from beating Ohio State in Columbus, winning the Big Ten title, and going to the Rose Bowl for the first time in nearly two decades. That's a pretty remarkable transformation. (The fact that they did it with a team that was ravaged by injuries and missing most of its offensive leaders is even more astounding.) Could you have ever envisioned such a quick turnaround? Many of the guys who have emerged as leaders and key performers on this team were blooded in the painful slog of 2007, like Adrian Clayborn, Christian Ballard, A.J. Edds, and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. The transformation of DJK is a great example of Iowa's turnaround in general. My enduring memory of him from the Western Michigan game is of him seemingly quitting on a play and talking to some fans in the end zone while a Bronco defensive back was running back an interception. My enduring memories of him from the Ohio State game will be of multiple clutch catches and, of course, of the rally-igniting 99-yard kickoff return in the fourth quarter when hope was slipping away. He's gone from a talented but raw and sometimes immature talent to an extremely reliable target in the passing game and an explosive playmaker in general.

Yes, he's totally checking out his runback on the Jumbotron.

But many of the top performers in 2009 would have never been predicted back in 2007. Pat Angerer, arguably the heart and soul of the 2009 defense, nearly quit football in 2007 after dealing with a serious of injuries and illnesses. Amari Spievey, one of the best cornerbacks in the conference in 2009, had washed out of Iowa in 2007 thanks to an inability to go to class. Brett Greenwood was, well, EPIC GREENWOOD back then; now he's a guy everyone was relieved to see take the field against the Buckeyes. The other defensive secondary spots were manned by the much-maligned Harold Dalton and the combination of Adam Shada (victim of the third indignity suffered by the Iowa football team that day/week, which was the betrayal of the Iowa fanbase as expressed through the boos directed at him) and Bradley Fletcher (who was burned more than a charcoal briquette back then) and there didn't seem to be much hope of better players in the program if they were the best we could send out there. (A year later, of course, Dalton was quickly replaced by Tyler "Motherfucking" Sash and Fletcher transformed himself into an NFL draft pick.)

Offensively, Iowa went from having one of the worst offenses in football in 2007 to having... well, a more timely offense, at least. Statistically, it's still not very good in most respects, but the ability of the 2009 Iowa team to come through in the clutch is almost unprecedented among other Ferentz Era teams. The 2007 team lost a pair of games in the fourth quarter (at Wisconsin and at Iowa State); the 2009 team has come from behind in the fourth quarter in four of its wins this year (and came from behind to send the game OT last weekend). A few of the faces remain the same from 2007 -- DJK, Tony Moeaki, Bryan Bulaga, Rafael Eubanks (to name a few) -- but experience and maturity have improved their performances tremendously.

Marvin McNutt owns the slant route and don't you ever forget it.

Since that loss to Western Michigan, Iowa has gone 18-6. That run has included a pair of upset wins over top-five teams (Penn State, twice), a program-best 9-0 start this year, wins over every Big Ten team but three (Ohio State, Illinois, and -ugh- Northwestern), a rare win over Iowa State in Ames, a 55-0 demolition of Minnesota in the final Gopher game ever played in the Metrodome, a dominant Outback Bowl victory, and perhaps more come-from-behind wins than in all the other years of the Ferentz Era combined. And while all six of those losses have been painful in their own way, there's something to be said of the competitive spirit that's been on display in all of them as well. The 2007 Western Michigan game was the fourth game that year that Iowa lost by nine or more points -- none of the six subsequent losses have been by more than seven points.

The journey of 2009 is far from over -- a 10-win season is still in our grasp, there's some Gophers to destroy, a big bronze pig to keep, and a bowl game somewhere warm to win -- but on this day, the anniversary of one of the darkest and most depressing moments in recent Iowa football history, it's worth taking a moment to stop and think about how far we've already come in such a short period of time. The pain of losing the de facto Big Ten Championship Game to Ohio State stings, but it feels a hell of a lot better than the ache of losing to Western Michigan and being lost in the college football wilderness.

Kenny bled to get that pig back, man. Floyd is ours, dammit.

hate hate hate hate hate. (writing edition)

Rodger Sherman — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:36:55 -0000

First thangs first: check out Chadnudj's post about who's gotta win this week and who's gotta lose this week. It's good stuff, and if you didn't notice it, it's over on the right side of the page over there. (that's where stuff you guys post goes. I can also make it go on the front page, but I kept chad's over there because it makes it look like I have readers when there are posts over there.)

Anyway, I sat down with interviewed sent a few questions via email to Ross from Black Heart Gold Pants to follow up on the podcast I did over there (go listen, if you got a half-hour or so to kill today), and he was kind enough to repond in great length:

Describe your hate for Northwestern, 50 words or less.

-- I hate them for beating Iowa three of the past four years, especially for providing one of my saddest Legendary Historic Kinnick Stadium experiences ever in 2006. I hate them because my brother went there, so it's a family thing. And I hate them for wearing purple, because losing to a bunch of Grimace-looking motherfuckers is depressing.

When you looked at the season, did you see "9-0?" When you look at the games you've played, do you have any idea how you're 9-0?

-- I saw "9-0" if I got good and drunk before doing some prognosticating, but that's about it. Between the brutal road schedule and the uncertainty at running back, center, defensive tackle, and left cornerback, I was fairly certain we'd run into a pothole or three somewhere along the way. I could try and explain how they're 9-0 in a way that used facts (like turnover margin and pass efficiency defense) or trite cliches (like the fact this team never quits or that they're quintessential hard-working grinder-types)... but those still wouldn't exactly be satisfying.

The honest truth is that this season has been (to this point) an almost ideal confluence of good talent, hard work, and, yes, luck. If you look at the season-defining plays Iowa has had this year, they all fit that description. The coaches recognize a weakness in Penn State's punt coverage team which allows Clayborn to steamroll a guy two-thirds his size and block a punt -- that's skill plus hard work. Being able to have the blocked punt bounce perfectly into Clayborn's arms while he's perfectly in stride -- well that's a bit of luck. McNutt recognizes that he can beat the Michigan State corner on an inside slant, the coaches trust him, the execution is flawless -- once again, skill plus hard work pays off. (That particular play probably involved the least amount of luck of any of these plays, but there were lucky breaks earlier in the drive/game, so we'll call it a wash.) The coaches call a blitz on third and goal, down 21-7 against Indiana (despite the fact that a blitz call in a similar spot in the first half led to a touchdown), the execution is again perfect, as the line and AJ Edds are able to pressure Ben Chappell into rushing his throw, which winds up taking a series of crazy caroms (enter: luck) off four players and lands in the arms of Tyler Sash; and thus the legend of the Pinball Pick Six is born. And so on. Only a fool would argue that this Iowa team hasn't gotten some very advantageous breaks this season, but only a truly ignorant observer would ignore the fact that this Iowa team has also had skilled players well-coached to be in the right positions to maximize the value of those lucky breaks.

The rest, after that jump.

Should opposing teams be scared about Iowa's offense, and if not, does it matter?

-- They should be scared of them for the roughly one quarter a game when they actually click. It would be nice if everything would click for more than one quarter, but consistency isn't really Iowa's thing this year. They have a decent amount of talent on offense -- they just rarely seem to all be on the same page. Anyone who's watched Iowa this year knows that when Ricky Stanzi is "on," he can be very good -- rifling in beautiful deep balls or hitting receivers in perfect stride to set up long runs after the catch; likewise, anyone who's watched Iowa this year also knows that when Ricky Stanzi is "off," he can be very very bad -- throwing some of the absolute worst and most indefensible interceptions imaginable by a major college quarterback. Both Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt have shown flashes of being sure-handed big play receivers; McNutt already has two of the most memorable touchdown catches in recent Iowa history and DJK always seems to make a big catch or three to get a first down during a game. That said, neither guy is all that consistent yet (particularly McNutt, who is still learning he ins and outs of the position). When healthy (a massive caveat in this case), Tony Moeaki is arguably the most talented and most complete tight end in terms of receiving ability and blocking ability in the Big Ten. And Brandon Wegher has been a surprisingly tough and quick-learning running back for a true freshman. So there are good players on the offense -- they just don't always seem to mesh in a way that leads to a consistent, powerful offense.

And it matters to the extent that if this is the mythical game when the offense actually does put it all together, then Northwestern is probably screwed. The defense has been doing its usual brilliant job of stifling opposing offenses, which might make it difficult for Northwestern's offense to keep up the pace if the Iowa offense is (unexpectedly) consistent and explosive. On the other hand, even if this is yet another stop-and-start day by the offense, the defense and special teams have done an incredible job of this year of keeping games close and, when necessary, breaking big plays and scoring points on their own.

Prediction for Saturday? Anything you say can and will be jinxed against you.

-- As much as I would love to see a repeat of the 62-10 massacre from 2002 (the closest I've ever seen an Iowa team come to pure offensive perfection), I fully realize that that is a pipe dream with this offense. Unless one side has a staggering number of turnovers, I think this will be yet another close, hard fought battle for Iowa. Iowa pulls away a little bit late to make this one a bit more comfortable than the last few heart-stoppers. 27-13, Iowa.

(yeah, that's a jinx.)

A Consolidated Friday Preview of Minnesota Meh - Hockey v. Alaska-Anchorage, Football v. Sparty.

JG2112 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:00:38 -0000

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SPARTY NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

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Let's get hockey out of the way first. Lucia has a mess to figure out (three shutouts, and three losses and a tie in four games so far) and he needs to do it quick before the season spins out of control. The Seawolves provide a nice opportunity to right the ship. Here's a preview from Gopher Puck Live. If things develop this weekend in the rare Friday - Sunday series and warrant a review, you'll get one here.

Now, football. The Michigan State Spartans are coming to town. Gopher Nation talked with The Only Colors yesterday about some aspects of the game tomorrow. It's a critical game for both teams, and it's obviously Sparty's first trip to TCF. It's also another opportunity for Sparty to have a SPARTY NOOOOOOOOO moment.

Don't know what I'm talking about? If any fan base can relate to the SPARTY NOOOOOOOO moment, it's Minnesota. It's the combination of coaching, player, and scheme meltdowns that lead to a ridiculous late-game loss. Sparty has had this happen in comical ways over the years - obviously, having goofs like Bobby Williams and John L. Smith as your coach lead to comedy (on that note, can you believe Nick Saban once coached there?). For a good example, think the 2006 Notre Dame - Sparty game. Sparty surrendered a 37-21 fourth quarter lead in a pouring rainstorm. At home. Good fun - watch it here.

Sparty is having one heck of a run of SPARTY NOOOOOOOO moments this year, though. Take your pick as to which one is the best. Was it against Central Michigan, where the Chippewas recovered an onside kick and got to rekick their last-second field goal after Sparty was offside on a block, shocking the Spartans at home for the third time? Was it against Notre Dame, where Kirk Cousins missed a wide open receiver in the end zone on the game's penultimate play, and threw an INT across his body, on the run, into the center of the defense, on the final relevant play?

How about against Michigan, where Sparty shackled the Wolverines for 56 minutes, but let Tate Forcier construct two touchdowns to Darryl Stonum and Roy Roundtree, one with :09 left in the driving rain with Forcier completely exhausted, before midnight struck for Forcier in overtime? Last Saturday, however, may take the cake. Up by 4, Sparty coach Mark Dantonio decided to revert to a three-man rush until the game's last play, where he rushed seven. Kirk Ferentz called his bluff, motioned Tony Moeaki across the formation, got Marvin McNutt on a one-on-one situation AT THE THREE YARD line, ran a slant, and look at the picture above. Again, ONE ON ONE and a three yard SLANT pass was wide open? Truly, SPARTY NOOOOOOO. The Dantonio face after the TD catch was priceless, and totally deserved for the bitter Spartan coach.

Minnesota can relate to these kind of moments, however (Iowa 1994, Northwestern 2000, Michigan 2003 and 2004, Wisconsin 2005, Texas Tech 2006, the month of November 2008). The rules of college football now dictate that even if both teams wet the bed, someone has to win the game. Who is going to choke less? We'll find out tomorrow.

Before getting to some stats and predictions, a couple notes. First, all the best to Eric Decker. He is proof that the Scout and Rivals guys cannot quantify hard work, talent and perseverance. Think of all the fine receivers Minnesota has had over the years. Decker is the finest this university has ever seen (and Brewster, no, it's not an "excellent opportunity" for your team - losing Decker sucks - you ought to know this from November 2008). Unfortunately, that weird step he took on the out pass against Ohio State will directly affect his financial and football future, as it seems he'll need 5-8 months to recover from surgery on the foot. Whoever drafts this guy is getting a steal. Vikings or Lions, please pick him up.

In case you were wondering, had Glen Mason remained as coach, the Gophers' wideouts this year and last would have been Decker and Wisconsin WR David Gilreath. Gilreath, who decommitted after Mason was fired, would have been nice to have around in Decker's absence, both last year and this.

And if you shutter an envious eye at Spartan LB Greg Jones, the preseason Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, don't be too mad when you realize that Jones also de-committed from Minnesota after Mason was fired. Of course, Mason was a terrible recruiter, so this doesn't matter anymore. Jones and Campbell are similar players in production this year. However, Jones is but a junior while Campbell is gone in 2 months. (also, if you remember seeing starting Cal LB Devin Bishop, well, he had committed twice to Minny before Mason was fired, and he then decommitted to go to Cal.)

Alright, on to Saturday. When I previewed this game in August and debuted the term "Wild Rodent," I predicted a 23-20 win for Michigan State. Things haven't really changed this year to change my prediction in any significant way.

The teams line up pretty well in regard to scoring stats. Michigan State averages 27.25 ppg (57th nationally) and gives up 20.75 ppg (39th). On the other hand, Minnesota averages 21.13 ppg (101st) and gives up 25.13 ppg (70th). Based on these stats, empiricists would expect a 26-21 final score in favor of Sparty. Let's throw a couple more statistical and aesthetic logs on the fire:

(1) The biggest log, of course, is the absence of Decker. There are a couple ways this could go. On the one hand, Weber could look lost without his security blanket, will struggle, causing fan unrest (and let's face it, drunken students and fans will not be quiet on Halloween) and causing the coaches (if they're not oblivious) to play more Gray. On the other hand, Weber may feel more comfortable to spread the ball around to everyone, in turn making the Gopher offense more diverse and dangerous. Of course, this will require the Gopher WRs (Brandon, Stoudermire and Carpenter, in particular) to make plays. The chances are there, although without the Decker double-team, Sparty can commit more defenders to the rush. Spreading Sparty out with the pass may be the way to success.

(2) Michigan State has no such issues in the passing game, which could make tomorrow very depressing for Gopher fans. Sparty is 22nd nationally in passing offense, averaging 273.50 ypg. The Gophers, in contrast, are 77th nationally in pass defense, averaging 229.63 ypg. This despite playing Air Force and a first-time college QB (Paulus) in the opener. Sparty has a quality set of wide receivers: walk-on Blair White (who, conveniently, is also white), Mark Dell, BJ Cunningham and TE Charlie Gantt. As Minnesota gives up one passing touchdown each week where no Gopher defender is within 15 yards of the receiver (Air Force, Purdue, Penn State, Ohio State), expect a similar breakdown or two this week.

(3) Go back to #1. How much will MarQueis Gray play? If he does play, remember a couple of things: (a) Gray led his touchdown drive against the second-string Buckeye defense that had called off the dogs. Sparty's first-string defense is top quality. (b) Gray won't progress much past the first option and will be subject to a tough pass rush. Expect growing pains. (c) Remember, if Gray is in, Greg Jones will likely spy him. I'm not sure that will end too well for Gray. Perhaps Illinois's porous defense is a better week in which to further integrate Gray into the game.

(4) The night experience. Who knows how this will go? On the one hand, drunken students make for a raucous crowd. Will they keep the faith if things go wrong? Will they verbally assault Brewster and Fisch if the playcalling (probably) goes haywire? Will the cold sap the life out of the crowd (I saw this first-hand in Iowa City this year - their Homecoming crowd was dead after the second play of the game, a Stanzi INT for TD. The cold also played a large part in it. Frankly, so did playing Journey's "Don't Stop Believing" when the Hawkeyes re-entered the stadium in the second half.)

Well, both teams are 4-4, which is what we thought they were in August. Sparty needs to recover from its SPARTY NOOOOOO moment last week, and needs to recover to meet its preseason bowl expectations. Minnesota continues to build toward success in 2011 (and fans, stop asking for it, because Tim Brewster's going to be here at least until 2011).

I'm not sure what to expect (though when Dantonio's team falls apart at some point tomorrow, I hope you yell SPARTY NOOOOOOOO), but I do know this. If Sparty gives up more than 20 points in 2009, they lose. I don't think it happens tomorrow (at least in regulation):

Michigan State 24 - Minnesota 20.

Game 9: Indiana at Iowa preview.

John M (The Crimson Quarry) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:17:11 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2 months ago: Iowa's Tony Moeaki (81) runs for a 34-yard touchdown reception in the first quarter of this NCAA college football game against Michigan, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Iowa Hawkeyes

2009 record: 8-0 (4-0)

2008 record: 9-4 (5-3) (beat South Carolina in Outback Bowl)

2008 Sagarin: 22

2009 Sagarin: 4

Coach: Kirk Ferentz (11th season, 78-53)

Series: Iowa leads 39-27-4

TV: noon, ESPN

Blog: Black Heart Gold Pants

Tomorrow, IU plays its highest-ranked opponent of the season so far, the #7 Iowa Hawkeyes. While the post-Mallory era has been difficult for IU, the Hoosiers' performances against the Hawkeyes have been respectable. Since Cam Cameron became IU's coach in 1997, IU is 5-5 against Iowa. Iowa is the only team Big Ten team aghainst whom IU has a .500 or better record in that period. Since 1997, only Illinois (the Hoosiers are now 6-7 against Illinois since 1997) has lost more games to IU than Iowa has. Another fun fact for Iowa fans: Since Mallory was fired, IU has won only five Big Ten road games, and Iowa is the only multiple victim (1999, 2007).

Of course, three of those wins came when Iowa was transitioning from Hayden Fry, whose last season was 1998, to Kirk Ferentz. IU won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. The most recent two wins game in 2006, a memorable comeback upset of the then 15th-ranked Hawkeyes, and in 2007, a really strange game that IU won 38-21 and is most famous for an odd completed-pass-fumble recovery that culminated in Kellen Lewis's backflip into the endzone. To remember happier days, enjoy this video from IU's 2006 win over Iowa (couldn't find any 2007 footage):

Of course, the 2009 Hawkeyes seem likely to present a more significant challenge than either of the Iowa teams that IU has recently defeated. The Hawkeyes have played a bunch of close games, both against respectable opponents (Michigan, Michigan State) and not (Northern Iowa, Arkansas State). Still, the Hawkeyes overall resume is very good, thanks to a home win against better-than-usual Arizona, a road win against Penn State, and a win at Wisconsin. It's reasonable to wonder if Iowa is living on luck, but the Hawkeyes are undefeated against a top 15 schedule. No other team in the country can say that.

How are they doing it? Well, for one (here's the Hawkeyes' NCAA resume), with really freaking pedestrian offensive numbers. Iowa is only #87 in total offense, 91 in rushing offense, 60 in passing offense, and 69 in pass efficiency. The Hawkeye defense has been outstanding. Iowa is allowing only 296 yards per game, and only 14.75 points per game, both stats good enough for top 20 rankings. The Hawkeyes are #5 in pass efficiency defense and, perhaps most key to the team's success are a whopping 1.38 turnovers per game in the black for the season, good enough for #6 in the nation.

The Iowa offense is led by Ricky Stanzi, quickly becoming a cult hero in Iowa even though, as BHGP notes in its previews, his numbers look Ben Chappell look like a star. Stanzi completes only 57 percent of his passes and has 12TDs to 8 INTs. Still, he may well start in the BCS title game, so he's got that going for him. Iowa's leading rusher, Adam Robinson, is now out for the season with an injury, and true freshman Brandon Wegher will be the starter from this point forward. Wegher has been solid, but of course has never been placed in this position before. Iowa's receiving yards have been widely distributed this year, with Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Trey Stoss, Marvin McNutt, and Tony Moeaki all between 373 and 250 receiving yards. Of course, the Hawkeye defense has led the way.

In any event, while this is an uphill battle for IU, given Iowa's less than overwhelming offensive numbers, injury troubles, and defensive focus might make it a low-scoring game in which a key turnover or special teams play (hear that, Ray Fisher) might make a difference. On the other hand, the last time I thought that, Virginia scored 47 on us, and Iowa is much, much better than Virginia. This IU team is impossible to predict, so who knows what will happen?

A-Paki-Lypse Soon? Adam Robinson Shelved for the Season

Oops Pow Surprise — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:04:59 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

2 months ago: Iowa's Adam Robinson (32) is stopped Michigan State's Jerel Worthy during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

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This just won't stop. Adam Robinson's ankle has exploded:

Redshirt freshman running back Adam Robinson likely will miss the rest of the regular season after suffering an ankle injury in Saturday's win against Michigan State.

He registered career-highs in both attempts (27) and rushing yards (109) against the Spartans.

"There's a chance we could get him back," Ferentz said, "but a running back with a bad ankle, it's not a good thing."

Ferentz likened Robinson's injury to the one that kept tight end Tony Moeaki out for several games this year.

This, of course, means the running back depth chart is as follows:

Brandon "Tackled as soon as he gets the handoff" Wegher
Paki O'Meara

I'm Paki O'Meara!

And that's it for healthy bodies. Jeff Brinson is still on crutches--though that didn't stop Ned--and Jewel Hampton has expressed no desire to play with a knee that's still about six months away from recovery. Pansy.

There are options, though none of them involve handing the ball to Casey McMillan and diving out of the way as he swats hapless defenders into Row 40. You know the NCAA would just make it illegal at halftime.

No, it looks like true freshman Brad Rogers is going to get some consideration. You may remember him from this season's recruiting class, checking in at 5'8" and a robust 230 pounds. Those numbers on a 2-star prospect don't sound like someone who's ready to step into a Big Ten backfield from day 1, but as Kirk Ferentz explained at his presser today, Rogers has made strides:

Q. Are Brad Rogers and Josh Brown in the mix?

COACH FERENTZ: Everybody is in the mix. If they are out there they are in the mix right now. I would say Rogers is ahead of Brown right now.

Q. What about Jeff Brinson?

COACH FERENTZ: He’s not – I think that probably could be the rest of the season he’ll be out, too.

Q. Nine games into a season, you would still take off a redshirt?

COACH FERENTZ: We traveled there last week, could not have for foreseen that kind of complication, but we traveled him and told him he may be going in the ballgame so be ready. Probably because he’s from Toledo, got four tickets to the game, so worked out perfectly.

But you know, if he’s got to go in, he’ll go in and do a good job. Really he’s impressed us over the last eight weeks. He came in a little heavy and a little out of shape but that’s not unusual for first-year players. He’s really worked hard and he looks 100% better than did he two months ago, so I’m really impressed with his attitude and his work ethics.

100% better than 2 stars is, like, 4 stars. Problem solved, bitches.

If Rogers can play, of course, he's in for a few carries; recall that Rogers was traveling to East Lansing with the team as a reward for his play in practice even before A-Rob was hurt. Further, Wegher hasn't shown any indication of being ready to take 20 snaps a game and be productive (though, as we mentioned earlier, it doesn't help that there's an unblocked tackler immediately on him every damn time). And as for O'Meara, well, that UNI game remains the only time this season an Iowa running back has lost a fumble. Not exemplary work, there.

So it'll probably be a tailback-by-committee approach from here on out until one of the Three Wise Men (note: we cannot vouch for the wisdom of any of the three running backs) establishes himself as the de facto number one. Let's hope the injury trend stops here; there aren't many people left on the offense that Iowa can afford to lose from here on out.