SB Nation - Trey Stross

Iowa Motto: Workers of the world unite!

BirdGT — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:00:18 -0000

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Reporter: If you're in a 3rd and 5 situation, who gets the ball 56% of the time? Who gets it the other 34%? (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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I started pouring over Iowa's play calling yesterday trying to find trends, interesting nuances, and intricate caveats to Ken O'Keefe's offense. I didn't find any. Iowa has the most plain, upfront offense ever. It's incredibly balanced with the pass and run. The quarterbacks distribute the ball evenly to three main wide receivers and a tight end. Two running backs split the load quite effectively. I excluded punts, field goals, dead ball penalties, QB kneels, and penalties that resulted in no play. Here's a look graphically at O'Keefe's play calling based on the down and based on the distance to attain a first down/touchdown:

The two primary running backs for Iowa are Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher. I want to pronounce that WEE-gurr so from here on out pronounce it that way in your head. Iowa fans, feel free to correct me in the comments. Based on the data, neither seems to have really separated himself from the other. Robinson gains about 4.6 yards per carry to Wegher's 3.6. Even though Wegher has more touchdowns, Robinson has a better nose for the yard to gain. Wegher has attained a first down or touchdown on 20.4% of his carries as opposed to Robinson attaining the first or TD 25.7% of the time. The following charts display the distribution of the football (looks) per back and the carries distributed based on yards to gain a first or TD. In both graphs, I mistakenly left wide receiver reverses and QB sneaks in the "Other" category so keep that in mind.

Now, the interesting thing about Iowa's offense, like most NCAA offenses is that passing routes are typically designed to gain a certain amount of yardage not necessarily positive yardage like a run play. The vast majority of routes(e.g. outs, slants, flags, etc.) are designed with the intent to get the ball to one specific spot and the receiver will be tackled immediately. If he breaks a tackle, then that's a bonus. So that's how these graphs following were thought up. I am assuming that most college offenses are 1 to 2 read pass plays so the play is called with the intended receiver in mind.

A breakdown of Iowa's receivers shows three dominant receivers and a tight end catching almost all of the passes (~65%). The main dudes are Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Marvin McNutt, Trey Stross, and Tony Moeaki (TE). The three named dude is henceforth pronounced "cool-EE-anus". McNutt is pretty obvious/funny. Stross = "Straws". Moeaki will be pronounced mow-EE-ah-KEY. McNutt and Moeaki catch the touchdowns. DJK and Stross pick up yardage. Looks include incomplete passes. "Other" in this case includes everyone on the field not named Moeaki, McNutt, DJK, or Stross (may appear high due to stat keepers not keeping accurate track of incompletions). Also, the RB's in the charts are only Robinson/Wegher not backup dudes that see little to no significant PT.

As you can see from all the charts and numbers and stuff, Iowa doesn't care who has the ball in their hands. Robinson has a little bit better grasp of his position than Wegher but he's not an astronomical upgrade. McNutt is the guy to key on in the passing game but he opens things up for Moeaki over the middle and the other two dudes. If Iowa allocates a good chunk of their offense to intermediate passing and really distributes the football, we'll have a tough time defending them.

I think a big key will be limiting Robinson and Wegher on first down. The "effectiveness" of Iowa's offense is predicated on maintaining the run-pass balance. It gives O'Keefe more flexibility in playcalling and keeps pressure off his freshmen RB's. Iowa's in the bottom half of the Big 10 in sacks allowed. And interestingly enough, Iowa has allowed more sacks on third down than any other down; allowing a sack 10% of the time they drop back to pass on third down. Derrick Morgan we need you to play big.

Not the 12-0 We Wanted Most, But a 12-0 We'll Gladly Take

Oops Pow Surprise — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:05:29 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

WHO WANTS STEEL RIBS OR STEEL HAM? (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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So. A month ago, if you'd been told that "12-0" was happening today, you'd probably be getting all giddy and buying a ticket for Pasadena. Of course, that 12-0 didn't come to fruition, on account of the Stanzageddon and all, but we do have the next best thing: Iowa 12, Minnesota 0.

Was it ugly? Christ yes, it was ugly; Iowa was 1-12 on 3rd down conversions, and theirs wasn't even the ugliest offense of the game.

Minnesota's offense, on the other hand, was one of the worst we've seen all season long. The two Minnesota quarterbacks - Adam Weber and MarQueis Gray - combined to go 14-42 through the air for 153 yards and one interception. That's an average of 3.6 yards per attempt, which is melt-your-retinas ugly. Oh, and Weber lost two of his three fumbles. Yes, Minnesota accounted for more yards than Iowa--201 to 171--but they needed 18 more plays to do so, meaning Iowa's own train wreck of an offense was at least more efficient. Sort of.

As for that Iowa offense, what's there to say? They clearly missed Adam Robinson's running ability when he went down with a re-injury of his ankle; he should be back in plenty of time for the bowl, so no real harm done here. But Brandon Wegher, from Dakota Dunes, South Dakota, one of the great town names in America (/Musberger'd), is really not an every-down back yet, and has no business trying to fill that role right now. That's not to say he's a bust or anything nearly as dour; it's just that there's a reason why, if all the tailbacks were healthy, he'd be about 4th or 5th string right now (Jewel Hampton, Robinson, Jeff Brinson, and maybe Paki Bomb). He's just a true freshman. Most true freshmen aren't ready to run the rock 25 times in a game--especially when they're evidently so green with the playbook that they're telegraphing every run play before the snap.

In fact, if this game proved anything, it's that injuries have wrecked any hope or semblance of consistency for the Iowa offense; James Vandenberg was the 20th different player to start on offense for Iowa this season. For the Iowa defense? 15--and two of those extra four starters were at the same position (Greg Castillo and Willie Lowe, for Shaun Prater at LCB). That's remarkably important; continuity is a big deal in a team sport like football, and as much as Kirk Ferentz and his staff preach the importance of the "next man in," with the notable exception of Riley Reiff, there's always been a marked dropoff in performance from starter to backup.

Thus, getting healthy for the bowl game and getting the best possible lineup (Bulaga, Dace Richardson, Rafael Eubanks, Reiff, and Kyle Calloway on the line; A-Rob and Brett Morse in the backfield; Trey Stross, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, and Tony Moeaki as receivers) would be a welcome development for the offense. How many times has that ideal lineup been healthy and starting all at once? Twice: at Wisconsin and about the first 10 minutes of at Michigan State.

And let's not even get started on losing Hampton and Brinson before the season.

Yes, the above lineup is pretty unimpeachably Iowa's best; while Marvin McNutt is obviously talented, he's done his best as the third receiver instead of starting at wideout--think back to Mo Brown in 2002, for example. Unless something bad happens in practice between now and the bowl game, the Iowa offense is going to look a lot better, and it'll be independent of the playcalling (which always looks a lot better when the players can reliably execute it).

As for the defense, they were utterly lights-out; Weber was harassed throughout the day, and it's to his credit that he was "only" sacked five times. The Iowa defensive line combined for 7.0 TFL and 4 of the 5 sacks, and they abused the offensive line so thoroughly that Bob Griese was left questioning everything about the Gopher unit and their commitment to the sport. That was nice.

Really, this was as vintage a 2009 Iowa game as any this season. The offense struggled through injuries to key contributors but put up enough points to take a double-digit lead, and the defense choked the opposing offense to death long before the final whistle sounded. It's never been pretty, but at the end of the day, you cannot argue with this: it's another 10-win season for Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes. Well done, men. Well done indeed.

Now let's go cook up some steel bacon for dinner.

27-24: Ferentz's Lament

Oops Pow Surprise — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 00:54:59 -0000

There was so much about the game that swung the momentum one way or another--Trey Stross single-handedly (or two-handedly, whatever) killing two Iowa touchdowns, a missed field goal on each side of the ball, big plays by James Vandenberg and Brandon Saine, whatever. It was a 12-round fight, and all the usual suspects of a titanic fight were there.

But when it comes to what the game hinged on, it was both coaches' decisions not to press to get into field goal range at the end of the game. Tressel's was, well, vintage Tressel: ball at the 18, under 3 minutes to go, and it was just dink dink dink until 4th down and a punt.

Ferentz's decision, however, was a little more curious. Iowa had the ball at their own 32 with about 50 seconds left and one timeout remaining. Seeing roughly 15 defensive backs in the game, Ferentz called a run to try to sneak a decent gain in on the soft OSU defense; it failed, no gain, and Iowa took no more snaps before overtime.

The thinking, we assume, is that the only way Iowa would lose in regulation is by getting aggressive with the pass, and Ferentz avoided that. He probably did not foresee, however, that Iowa's offense would travel backwards 16 yards in overtime before a doomed heave-ho on 4th and 26.

Indeed, the worst series of the game by far could not have come at a worse point in the game; after that, Tressel was as likely to call a pass as he was a backwards punt.

And thus, Iowa's shot at the Rose Bowl ended not with a bang, but a whimper. That, above all else, will likely be Kirk Ferentz's lament tonight.

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Here's your open thread for the night. Play fair, no slurs, and don't fight with your own. This loss feels like a kick square to the dick, and nobody's happy about that. Let's start from that premise and keep it cool from there.

There's A Game on Saturday? Just Northwestern

Oops Pow Surprise — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 08:11:09 -0000

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Iowa has one opponent between themselves and a 10-0 season... and that opponent is just Northwestern. Problems? No problems here, nosiree.

What Northwestern will need to win the game

To put it plainly, perfection. Regardless of whether he's on the Cats' injury list, Mike Kafka's hamstring cannot be 100%--not if it kept him out of the PSU game while Daniel Persa ineffectualled his way to a 21-point loss. It's not Persa's fault that the jNWU defense turned into the slighest webs of spider's silk and wishes, ready to be burst through by the weakest of Zugs; it is Persa's fault that the Wildcat offense was totally unable to recover when necessary.

But Kafka's back, his hamstring having healed enough to win Bitchpatrick's trust, and the 7-yard slant is back in play. For Iowa, that requires a schematically different approach, all as Norm Parker continues to recover from more diabetes- and infection-related foot problems. So it goes with all that; just ask Ron Santo.

The more involved the coaching staff is with the Iowa preparation this week, the more we'll probably see wacky plays like Brodercik Binns and/or Adrian Clayborn dropping into flat responsibility, even if it's just to get a mitt on the ball on a 2nd and 10 or so. Keep in mind that a defender can completely alter a game without registering tackles, sacks, forced fumbles and recoveries. The last three are fleeting glory stats, and the first is something that pales in comparison to receiving double-teams the whole game or otherwise forcing a quarterback out of his comfort zone.

jNWU is going to have to be on the high end (or higher) of their probablility scale to have a decent chance at winning this game;

What Iowa needs to do to win the game

Just don't fuck this up. Let Wegher get 20 carries, even if the first 16 carries resulted in 16 total yards; he'll just be overdue at that point. Northwestern does not have an admirable rush defense, but Iowa will struggle to rush for at least two of the game's four quarters; that's just how we do.

On defense, unless Arby Fields has the game of his life awaiting, Iowa is going to put forth one of their better defensive performances on the season. There's too much uncertainty in the jNWU backfield to expect more than 21 points; Iowa offense, then, this is your baseline. You dip below at your season's mortal peril.

But though jNWU's defense has its stout moments, it also has its epic parade of suck, and that has every chance of being on display Saturday afternoon.The depth chart is in tatters, Corey Wootton's at the same percentage of effectiveness as his knee (currently 80% or so), and if any of them tweak a ligament it's avalanche time.

Really, it's just that easy; #4 Iowa should beat a mediocre team by much more than the 17 points they're giving on Saturday. Every game's been close? But of course; you're just right where Iowa (and Vegas) wanted you.

Prediction

34-10, Iowa. This is a secondary that a decent Ricky Stanzi tears to shreds--even with a hobbled Trey Stross--and we are fantastically underwhelmed by this Northwestern offense choosing between an immobile Kafka and an ineffective Dan Persa. A defensive touchdown is totally in play here.

This convincing win, coupled with Vanderbilt's stunning upset in Gainesville (oh, it's coming, and if it doesn't happen then Tim Tebow totally cheated) will put Iowa in the top 3 of the BCS--and that's before Texas forfeits their season on account of Colt McCoy being indicted on dogfighting charges.

Hey, why not, right?

There's A Game On Saturday? Jonesin' for Indiana

Oops Pow Surprise — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 06:14:57 -0000

(If this guy beats us, we will give up on watching football. Or at least want to.)

Seems odd, but we've actually got a Big Ten home game this weekend. It's only Iowa's second in the last five games, which just screams conspiracy (hush that three of our last four are at home hush hush). You might think "home vs. mediocre opponent" = "big time win," but we should point out that Iowa's three biggest wins (ISU, PSU, Wisconsin) have come on the road. Okay, Arizona's tied for third; you get the point.

All of which is to say just because this is a game against a lightly-regarded team doesn't really seem to, well, matter to Iowa. All indications are that the Hawkeyes should roll--hell, a 17.5 spread for Iowa is like a 90-point spread for normal teams--but usually when Iowa's supposed to walk to victory, it ends up being a 60-minute nailbiter and we all end up feeling just dirty.

So let's see how dirty we'll feel tomorrow, shall we?

With Iowa on offense

This would be as good a proposition as any for Iowa this season--Indiana's defense is comprised of Jammie Kirlew, Greg Middleton, and the Chicago's starting nine from 1969. Ron Santo doesn't have any legs, so they put him at defensive tackle. They're bad.

Oh, but then Dace Richardson had to get struck by lightning once again, and Adam Robinson's ankle appears to have a javelin sticking out of it. And look, no offense to Brandon Wegher, but these last four games:

10/3 Arkansas State W 24-21 11 49 4.5 19 0 2 12 6.0 8 0 0 0

10/10 Michigan W 30-28 13 21 1.6 7 1 2 12 6.0 9 0 0 0

10/17 @Wisconsin W 20-10 11 1 0.1 5 0 2 19 9.5 16 0 0 0

10/24 @Michigan State W 15-13 6 30 5.0 11 0 1 23 23.0 23 0 0 0

...have not been particularly impressive or confidence-inspiring.

As we've mentioned before, though, Wegher has a curious knack for being tackled right as he touches the ball, something that almost no tailback would be able to overcome en route to a productive outcome. Meanwhile, if Wegher ever gets the ball in space (screen, draw, the rare well-blocked run), he's more than competent.

That makes us wonder one thing: is Iowa inadvertently tipping the run when Wegher's in the game? Whether it's a matter of a smaller playbook for Wegher or something in the way he lines up, whatever. It would take far more intensive tape study than we're about to do, of course, but we can't think of any other reason why Wegher would have a tackler waiting for him right at the handoff while Robinson faces the "normal" amount of heat from the defensive front. It's not that Wegher's a bad runner when he's in space or that he's making the wrong cut; he normally just doesn't have a prayer of even getting to that first cut.

The good news is that if Iowa can keep Middleton and Kirlew off Wegher 90% of the time, White Lightning has a good chance at a big day. He's a hell of a runner once he gets going, and you may see some flares to the flats just to get him in workable one-on-one situations with a cornerback or linebacker in space. Better than a handoff for a loss of two.

Alternatively, KOK can just say "the hell with it" and just start chucking it deep 50 times. After all, Indiana's down to about two healthy bodies at safety, and they seem to take a horseshoes-and-hand-grenades approach to pass coverage: if they're close to the target, that's probably as good as you can expect. Meanwhile, the Unholy Trinity of Trey Stross, DJK, and Marvin McNutt is looking as good as ever. No stupid passes, s'il vout plait, Monsieur Stanzi, but there's potential for serious productivity there.

Then again, last time we said that, Stanzi had 78 yards of passing with 90 seconds left in the game and a 13-9 deficit. So, yeah.

With Indiana on offense

Ben Chappell isn't bad, which is really weird to say, because Ben Chappell used to be bad. He's no Kellen Lewis, of course, and he's better than 2008 Ben Chappell - that guy got utterly bitchmade by Iowa in Bloomington last season. Bitchmade in Bloomington? Like a sequel to Sleepless in Seattle? Meg Ryan can play Chappell, of course.

They're going to have to get creative and force Iowa into exploitable matchups on the outside, though, because we're really at a loss trying to figure out how Indiana's going to put together a sufficient rushing attack to make the linebackers' lives uncomfortable. The Hoosiers aren't usually that bad on offense--they've got perhaps the most underrated line in the BXI--but too many of their points have come on the big play, which is a far less reliable engine of productivity than the good, old-fashioned 10-play drive.

The Hoosiers' weapon of choice on the ground is Darius Willis; whatever. He's averaging well over five yards a carry, but hold on there kids; we may have some outliers. Indeed, Willis has a 70-yard TD and 85-yard TD to his credit; take those away, and Willis has just 250 yards on 75 carries. 3.33 ypc, if you were curious. Yes, the big runs are part of his game too, but let's not pretend Willis is a clock-chewing big back giving the offense 2nd and medium all game long. He's a home run back, and one who hasn't rushed more than 16 points in a single game. He can be shut down with relative ease.

Prediction

Chappell and the passing offense should be mildly competent; any time you get an experienced quarterback with a decent line, the proverbial bitchmaking becomes less and less likely. So as nice as a shutout sounds, it's unlikely.

Still, this has the potential to be one of the Iowa defense's shining moments of the season. If Chapell doesn't throw at least two interceptions (one of which won't be his fault), we'll be surprised; we don't see the talent necessary for a big enough game through the air to seriously threaten Iowa.

That said, with Richardson and Robinson in the lineup, this would be an excellent opportunity for the Iowa offense to get back on track. They're not in the lineup, so we're back to dealing with backups and unknown quantities. More concisely: bet the under bet the under bet the under.

We're calling this 23-9 right now; we could probably see Iowa's score anywhere from about 16 to 40, depending on how effectively Stanzi can attack that secondary, and we could probably see Indiana scoring anywhere from 0 to 24. That 24 would likely come with some garbage points; we don't think Indiana gets into the end zone three times against an Iowa defense that's actually trying for all 60 minutes.

Look: this is a game that a real #4 team, tailback or no, wins by a substantial margin. They're at home, Indiana has holes on both sides of the ball, and the defense is absolutely humming right now.

Then again, we said Iowa rolls against MSU and A-State and loses to Wisconsin, so we clearly know nothing. Plan accordingly, and we'll see you Saturday morning. You're bringing the Bloody Marys, right? Dude, it's your turn. You do it.

Did MSU Actually Run a Prevent Defense Late vs. Iowa?

grahamfiller10 — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 04:38:10 -0000

Calls for the head of Pat Narduzzi have accompanied a general anger about the constant failings of the Spartan defense in fourth quarter situations. Just to recap, here are the four game tying or game winning drives engineered against Michigan State in 2009:

Score@Drive Start	Time of Drive	# of Plays	Yards	Result
MSU 13, Iowa 9	1:32	10	70	TD
MSU 27, CMU 26	0:29	4	27	FG
MSU 30, ND 26	4:09	8	73	TD
MSU 20, UM 13	2:53	12	91	TD

The most popular theory, one that was espoused to Mark Dantonio at last weeks luncheon, is that MSU changes from its base 4-3 to a "Prevent" defense in fourth quarter situations which in fact only prevents Michigan State from winning games. This appeared to be most obvious Saturday night, as the previously staunch MSU defense gave up a 70 yard last ditch drive with all the yards coming through the air. A Spartan front four (plus a blitzer) had pressured Ricky Stanzi all night, but this approach seemed to be tossed in favor of a "rush three, drop everyone else into soft zone." Here is DrDetroit from TOC, discussing D-Co Pat Narduzzi:

I put this loss entirely on him. There is two minutes left and MSU goes into a soft zone on defense only rushing 3. So, no pass rush and the WRs eventually get open for big gains.

At the aforementioned luncheon, Dantonio denied running a "prevent" late in games. So let's clear this up once and for all. Here is a play by play of the Spartans defensive formations on the final drive.

1st-10, Iowa 30. Deep crossing route to McNutt for 16 yards. MSU is sitting in the 3-3 formation and gets no pressure on Stanzi, who has tons of time to sit and wait for McNutt to get open. McNutt makes the catch with 5 green jerseys around him.

1st-10, Iowa 46. Same defensive formation again, as Stanzi waltzes around before springing forward for a two yard gain. No blitzing from the 3-3. The corners are up on the wide receivers and the safety's are 12 yards off the LOS. The definition of prevent defense is this:

A defensive formation or strategy that employs an additional pass defender in an attempt to prevent long gains by the offense, usually near the end of the game.

Most of us non-collegiate level players know the prevent defense from Madden 0whatever, but Narduzzi's formations fit the bill so far

2nd-8, Iowa 48. No blitzing or wrinkles here. An offset 3-3. Incomplete pass.

3rd-8, Iowa 48. Well, it looks like DrDetroit is correct so far. No pressure on Stanzi and the linebackers aren't blitzing. Actually, Greg Jones had middle short contain here, but vacated to cover a running back. Trey Stross catches a short slant and runs for 21 yards. No one has laid a hand on the quarterback on this drive.

1st-10, MSU 31. Iowa is driving, will we see any defensive changes? We do! Jones blitzes left side and is almost pancaked. The five Iowa linemen are putting a nice halo around Stanzi. Deep ball incomplete to DJK.

2nd-10, MSU 31. It looks like a normal 3-3, with the LB's spread all over the field. But Narduzzi dials up (I love saying that) a big blitz here, with GJ from the outside, Gordon from the middle, and Jeremy Ware (?) from the corner spot. No one touches Stanzi, who unloads in rhythm to DJK between three defenders for 16 yards.

1st-10, MSU 15. MSU is still in the 3-3, but it's unbalanced, with two LB's creeping up on the right side. The movement confuses the Iowa O-Line, allowing Chris Norman to smash into Stanzi right after he releases the ball. Finally, a quarterback hurry from the Spartan D. Rucker is called for the hold on DJK and the rest is history.

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I won't go over the goal line plays because it's awfully hard to run a prevent inside the 10 yard line. But in case anyone asks, yeah, Michigan State went away from their tried and true 4-3 during the final drive. And if you want to get technical, I don't really know if a 3-3 with soft zone coverage is a "prevent" formation. The safeties weren't going completely over the top of the outside wide receivers, choosing to quickly mark the receivers running deep routes.. And if you want to make a little common sense chit chat, I could imagine this being less of a scheme problem and more of an issue with the secondary breaking down under pressure.

But the fact remains: While in a 4-3, MSU played some solid defense Saturday against Iowa and limited the Hawkeyes to 78 passing yards until the final drive. The instant Narduzzi switched to the 3-3 soft zone, bad things happened. A flustered quarterback all of a sudden looked confident and a previously effective pass rush disappeared.

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 8

Law Buckeye — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:20:10 -0000

1. INDIANA at NORTHWESTERN, 12:00 p.m. EST (10/24), Big Ten Network

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts NORTHWESTERN by 7

Wildcat mania has taken a backseat to the overall mediocrity of this Northwestern team. Mike Kafka has done everything he’s been asked to do, but the 34-47, 290 yard performances aren’t leading to any points. With all that said, the Wildcats defense has vastly improved and Vegas (NW -6) seems to believe Ryan Field will be friendly to Pat Fitzgerald this weekend. I’m trusting Vegas here in a close one

LAW BUCKEYE predicts NORTHWESTERN by 7

From a motivational standpoint this could be the best game of the week. Both Indiana and Northwestern need two wins to become bowl eligible and both Indiana and Northwestern only have two "winnable" games left on their schedule. Would you be surprised if I told you that Saturday was one of them? I believe the winner of this game will go bowling and the loser will stay home. Everything else being equal, I like the Wildcats to slow down the pistol offense. Mike Kafka and Zeke Markshausen can take over from there. Still, don't expect anyone to lay down and die with the season on the line.

2. ILLINOIS at PURDUE, 12:00 p.m. EST (10/24), ESPN 2

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts PURDUE by 14

At the beginning of this season, this reads "blowout, Illinois." Now? I don’t think any readers will pick Illinois on the road. And I’m inclined to agree at first glance. My defining factor is confined to Illinois’ inability to play a complete game. 400 yards of total offense against Indiana…led to 14 Illini points. A great defensive gameplan against Mizzou…helped hold the Tigers to 37 points when the defense wore out under the offensive’s immense ineptitude.

Things working in Purdue’s favor – Cohesive passing offense and three legitimate playmaking wide receivers (Carlos, Smith, Valentin)…Home crowd freshly excited from rushing the field against Ohio State…Playing against Juice Williams…

LAW BUCKEYE predicts PURDUE by 10

Picking the Illini to beat Indiana last week was my last olive branch. It's time to send the black sheep of the conferene to reform school. Before Purdue smashed Ohio State, I called them the best 1-5 team in the history of college football. It's finally time to call them what they are: a force on the rise. If Purdue can win the turnover battle they take this one without breaking a sweat. Expect Ryan Kerrigan to have another big day.

3. No. 13 PENN STATE at MICHIGAN, 3:30 p.m. EST (10/24), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN by 7

Most of you will pick Penn State because you believe the Michigan defense is soft. Most of you believe Michigan may gash some runs early, but won’t be able to continue their success as the game wears on against Odrick and Josh Hill. Most of you believe, at least for this year, Michigan is no better than a 7-5 team which shows flashes of brilliance. Oh, and most of you think Tate Forcier is too small to survive another murderous defense akin to Penn State’s.

I’m inclined to agree with most those statements. But I think the Wolverine’s can get up for this one, plus I’m going to need some upset points, ala two weeks ago and Miami/Oklahoma. Penn State hasn’t 1) seen a spread run offense and 2) hasn’t played a team with the speed of Michigan. The Wolverines are healthy and rested – I don’t believe in this pick, but oh hell, let’s see what the Run Spread can do against the monster 4-3 of PSU.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts PENN STATE by 10

I think how you pick this one is more of a reflection on Michigan than Penn State. Do the Wolverines -- whose September 18th 1-point triumph against then No. 18 Notre Dame seems like a long time ago -- have another upset left in the tank? If they do, who gets the bequest? Is it a Nittany Lion team they always seem to frustrate? (Joe Pa hasn't won at the Big House since 1996). Or, are they saving something special for their good buddies in the Buckeye state? Don't get me wrong, I think Michigan's program is on the right track, but I see a statement game coming saturday for a team whose national discussion always seems to get prefaced with, "we don't really know how good they are." Daryll Clark might be the only quarterback in the Big Ten. A steadily improving Nittany Lion offensive line paves the way for a big day for Evan Royster. Penn State has four receivers with 20 or more catches. UM has none. Clark goes to the air early and often and -- with the help of WR Derek Moye -- puts this game out of reach by the mid-point of the third quarter.

4. No. 6 IOWA at MICHIGAN STATE, 7:30 p.m. EST (10/24), Big Ten Network

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts IOWA by 10

Most important game of the weekend, no question, but that’s because every game Iowa plays while undefeated is #1 on the Big Ten’s radar. Iowa has slowed two good offenses in their home stadiums, which is exactly what they’ll do in East Lansing. Scott Tolzien was on FIRE, until he met the Iowa pass defense zone…and wilted. Same goes for the rattled Daryll Clark. Kirk Cousins is just as good as both of them and probably has better wide receivers. Vegas says pick ‘em, but it doesn’t matter. I won’t bet against this Iowa defense until I have to.

On a side note, Iowa’s wide receivers have been spectacular of late. Trey Stross made a couple Adam Decker-esque catches against Wisconsin, while DJK and Tony Moeaki made big plays in Madison and two weeks ago versus UM.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts IOWA by 14

Come on. You know you want to pick the Spartans. Iowa has lost the last four times they've played in East Lansing. Michigan State has rebounded from a 1-3 start to be staring down the barrel of the Big Ten race. Greg Jones is everywhere. If there's one thing these Hawkeyes haven't done is win big. I think it all clicks Saturday night under the lights as Stanzi plays smart, takes care of the football, and Tight End Tony Moeaki does the rest. Just like that, Iowa is off to its first 8-0 start, ever.

5. No. 8 TCU at No. 16 BYU, 7:30 p.m. EST (10/24)

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts TCU by 10

Great article in SI a couple weeks ago about how TCU takes 3 star running backs and converts them to defensive players. Apparently they recruit these 200 lb athletes and add 50 lbs, then sit back and watch as these players turn into All-Americans. Not a bad idea – in fact it’s led Texas Christian to the brink of the BCS Top 8. I hitched my star to BYU this year and was rewarded with a 5 touchdown thrashing at the hands of Florida State. What does FSU and TCU have in common? Mmm speed. The Horned Frogs ran into a perfect storm last year, losing to two of the top three teams in the nation, Utah and Oklahoma. This victory in Provo will spur them closer to a BCS berth.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts TCU by 10

Want to tune in for this mid-major marathon? Me too. Too bad it won't be covered on network television. The best of the Mountain West come together in Provo Saturday. Last year the Horned Frogs snapped the Cougars 16 game winning streak in conference. Senior BYU Quarterback Max Hall will try to avoid the warts of last year's 2-interception performance against the number four defense in the country. Sure, BYU shocked then No. 3 Oklahoma in their season opener. But who hasn't? I think TCU's ~~horny~~, ahem, thorny defense suffocates BYU in the thin night mountain air on its way to the BCS.

There's A Game On Saturday? Arizona MORE LIKE THE MILDCATS

Oops Pow Surprise — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 03:50:03 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

3 months ago: Iowa's Tyler Sash runs off the field after his team's 35-3 win over Iowa State in this NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009, in Ames, Iowa. Sash had three interceptions in the win. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Iowa's toughest challenge yet this season comes against an Arizona team that ended last season with a win over BYU... who just went down to Dallas and took out Oklahoma last week. Plenty of WAITWAITWAIT disclaimers to be thrown around those facts, but still, facts is facts. Vegas is putting the line at Iowa -4, which means those of you unscrupulous enough to actually bet on Iowa games are probably in for an ultra-stressful weekend. So who're we giving the edge to? Read on, children... read on.

With Iowa on defense

It would be disingenuous to say the offense revolves around Nic Grigsby--quarterback Matt Scott accounts for more than 250 yards of offense per game on his own--but the odds are a lot better that the Cats win on the ground than through the air. Grigsby is the rare home run threat in a pro set, something of a Tavian Banks-esque relic. But kid can move.

Arizona's offensive line goes about 320 per across the board, with both guards over 330 pounds. What should that tell you? Eh, not much. ISU's line was also big, and they didn't really push Iowa around. Further, even with Bulaga around, Iowa's line is about 25 pounds lighter across the board, and nobody thinks the Hawks' line sucks or is undersized. Skill's more important than size--well, once you get above 275, anyway.

The problem is that as Austen Arnaud and Pat Grace demonstrated, when Iowa has two running threats to account for in the backfield, they usually end up stopping neither. Both teams ran on Iowa with a surprising amount of ease; considering Scott has logged about 65 yards per on the ground this season (yes, it's totally shocking that NAU didn't shut Arizona down), A.J. Edds and Pat Angerer might be in for a long day of pursuit tomorrow.

It's not all bad news, though. As we mentioned before, Arizona's probably not passing to beat Iowa; they're missing a legitimate weapon at TE in Rob Gronkowski. El Gronko, as nobody calls him, is still sidelined with back problems. Add to that the hamstring issues lingering on top receiver Delashaun Dean (he's back, but we'll see how effective he can be), and it seems pretty obvious that Iowa's top priority is going to be shutting down Grigsby.

As for Scott, as we mused earlier, we imagine Tyler Sash is going to be spending a good amount of time creeping into the box and letting Greenwood mind the deep routes (eight days ago, that sentence would have been met with substantial trepidation here). Sash, Jeremiha Hunter, and Edds are all capable of spy duty if Scott gets an itch to run; we'll see if Dr. Octopus goes that route or leaves that task to the guys in short pass coverage.

As Bellanca noted earlier today, Grigsby's in the mold of a tailback that Iowa shut down with frightening regularity last season. That should continue Saturday.

Needless Intermission

This seems incredibly unacceptable.

With Iowa on offense

Okay, so things still aren't back to normal, but the situation is hardly dire. Bryan Bulaga's still likely out, but Riley Reiff didn't look too bad in relief last week. Ol' Reliable, Tony Moeaki, is nursing a bum ankle; Allen Reisner is an experienced (if pedestrian) replacement. And there's also whispers that Derrell Johnson-Koulianos tweaked his ankle over the course of the week. Scary, yes, but if there's one deep position on offense for the Hawkeyes, it's wideout. The top three wideouts will probably be Marvin McNutt, Trey Stross, and Keenan Davis; Iowa should be fine there.

And then Rick Stanzi. Ohhh, Stanzi. Kaiser Von Manzi is gleefully removing the last glimmers of color from Kirk Ferentz's hair; at this rate, KF's going to go whiter than Ted Danson by the end of the season. And while Stanzi seems to be settling into a somewhat predictable pattern (1st quarter: suck beyond belief; 2nd quarter: do nothing; 2nd half: annihilate all defenders), the first half bedwettings have to stop. Iowa can get away with it against the little brothers of the state; I'm not so sure they can against a stingy Zona defense.

Adam Robinson's getting the start over Brandon Wegher, though that seems like a less meaningful distinction than usual. After all, if the game's 17-13 and Iowa's got one drive left, we're pretty sure Wegher's going to be in the backfield, not Robinson. And if it's Paki O'Meara, we will find a puppy and shoot it. A cute puppy.

We would spend the next few paragraphs musing about the Arizona defense, but that would be impossible, since--as regular podcast listeners already know--they haven't been on television this year. They've shut down Northern Arizona and Central Michigan, which is about as impressive as shutting down Northern Armenia and Central Mauritania. Okay, that's not fair to Dan LeFevour and Central Michigan, who are actually good. But this is going to be their toughest test of the year too.

Prognosis

It won't be pretty. Not at all. Until he proves otherwise, we're marking down Stanzi for an early turnover or two, stunting the Iowa offense's early production. But for Stanzi's early struggles, we're thinking Scott has a worse game for longer. And while Kirk Ferentz is 39-22 against the spread at home, Mike Stoops loses football games. An Arizona win simply goes against both men's pedigrees.

Our initial thinking was 19-10, but past performance suggests Arizona ought to be able to get at least an easy field goal off of one Iowa mistake. So let's say 19-13, Hawkeyes, in an oft-ugly game of the "get the W and get the hell out of here" variety. No top 25 without a lot of help from teams above Iowa, which probably means no GameDay at PSU for next weekend. We're all right with that.

Arizona @ Iowa Preview

Smooty — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 15:41:39 -0000

More photos » by John Miller - AP

3 months ago: Arizona's head football coach Mike Stoops watches the game from the sidelines during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northern Arizona at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Ariz., Saturday, Sept. 12, 2008. (AP Photo/John Miller)

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Saturday is the first big road-test of the season for Arizona. The Cats travel to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes at famed Kinnick Stadium. There are plenty of story-lines surrounding this game: Mike and Mark Stoops return to their alma mater (where they played and coached); Matt Scott's first road game; Super-Tight-End Rob Gronkowski is out; both teams first game against a quality opponent; and Pac-10 vs. Big Ten bragging rights.

Matt Scott and the Wildcats should expect a loud, rowdy house Saturday afternoon. Kinnick holds over 70,000 people, and will be filled to the gills. The crowd may be a factor for Scott, who has not started a road game before.

How they got here:

Arizona is 2-0 (0-0), with victories over Central MIchigan (19-6) and Northern Arizona (34-17). The victory opening night over CMU has proven to be bigger than previously thought. The Chippewas went on the road last weekend and upset Michigan State.

Iowa is 2-0 (0-0), with victories over Northern Iowa (17-16) and Iowa State (35-3). The Hawkeyes escaped with the victory week one over UNI by blocking field goals on two consecutive plays! If you are an Iowa fan, I am sure you look at that as clear evidence of superior skill. If you are everyone else, you probably see it as a lucky win. Then, the Hawkeyes went to Iowa State and mopped the floor with the Cyclones. Okay.

When Arizona has the ball:

Iowa's defense has given up 137 rushing yards per game this season, including 56 yards last week to Iowa State's quarterback Austen Aurnad. There is a reason you have not heard of Aurnad. That 137 yards per game is not lost in a flurry of carries either. The Hawkeyes defense gives up a hefty 4.2 yards per carry. Arizona's offense is averaging 305 yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry. Nic Grigsby and the offensive line will be a huge factor in Saturday's game. Grigsby has rushed for 329 yards and three TDs this season. Matt Scott has chipped in 137 yards, and Keola Antolin has added 98 yards and one score.

Cornerback Tyler Sash leads the Hawkeyes in both tackles (20) and interceptions (3). Brett Greenwood, also a cornerback, is second on the team in tackles with 18, and two interceptions. Iowa is not effectively pressuring the quarterback. The Hawkeyes have only registered two sacks on the season. Granted, the pass defense picked off Iowa State five times last week. Iowa's defense gives up only 191 passing yards per game.

Matt Scott and Nick Foles will lead the Wildcats passing offense this week without tight end Rob Gronkowski and a banged up Delashaun Dean. Dean has had hamstring problems, and a concussion this season. He came back to practice this week and should contribute this Saturday. The Cats are only averaging 198 yards per game through the air, but up to this point have maintained a pretty vanilla offensive scheme. Look for Arizona to open up the playbook Saturday. Terrell Turner leads the team in receptions with 11, for only 101 yards. Next is David Douglas with seven catches for 65 yards. Where is Bug? The super-soph has only two catches this season to-date.

Arizona has dominated time of possession thus far. The Cats have held the ball 60% of the time. The Hawkeyes have had a slight time of possession advantage, averaging 30:45 a game.

When Iowa has the ball:

Iowa is the very definition of balanced attack. The Hawkeyes have run the ball 66 times this season, versus 71 passing attempts. This is not the old three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust Big Ten offense, but it is not exactly Run-n-Shoot either.

Arizona has given up a paltry 70.5 yards per game on the ground. Wildcat opponents average 3.6 yards per carry and have found the endzone on the ground only once so far this season. Middle linebacker Vuna Tuihalamaka leads the Cats with 12 total tackles, and also has added an interception. Cornerback Devin Ross is second on the team in tackles (11), and will look to shut down Hawkeye reciever Trey Stross. Iowa averages 139 yards per game rushing, with a respectable 4.2 yards per carry. The Hawkeye's leading rusher is Adam Robinson, who has 132 yards on 27 carries and one touchdown. Iowa is without injured starting running back Jewel Hampton.

Arizona's pass defense has held opponents to 133.5 yards per game. Impressive when you consider that includes holding star quarterback Dan LeFevour under 200 yards. Trevin Wade has picked up where he left off last year. Wade has picked off two passes this season. The Arizona pass defense has only sacked the quarterback three times this season. Iowa's quarterback Ricki Stanzi is averaging 219.5 yards per game passing, and has five touchdowns versus only two interceptions. The Hawkeyes passing attack has spread the ball around the field. 12 different players have caught a pass this season. That number is misleading however, as only three players have caught more than five balls, and tight end Tony Moeaki has caught 11 passes for 26% of all passes completed. Clearly Moeaki is Stanzi's favorite target and will need to be shadowed down the field.

Special Teams

Arizona's kicker Alex Zendejas has made 4-6 field goals this season. Zendejas' long is 37 yards. Punter Keenyn Crier has three punts that average 41 yards, and a long of 55 yards. On kickoffs, Zendejas has already recorded three touchbacks on the season.

Iowa kicker Daniel Murray is 1-2 this year on field goal attempts. His lone field goal was a 39 yarder. Punter Ryan Donahue has punted nine times, for a 41.1 average, and long punt of 57 yards.

Arizona has a decisive advantage in kick returns. As a team, the Wildcats average 29.6 yards per return. The Hawkeyes average a mere 18.2. Iowa's kick coverage has been excellent thus far, however, limiting opponents to 17.5 yards per return. Something has to give here.

Overall

The numbers indicate that neither team has excelled so far this season passing the ball, and Iowa has not exactly been a prolific rushing attack either. Neither team has faced an opponent this season that matches each others caliber. This game should be a turning point for both programs. Can Arizona stop a balanced attack? Can Iowa keep a legitimate rushing attack in check? The peripheral numbers seem to edge towards Arizona, but Iowa has one huge advantage. Kinnick. If Matt Scott, or Nick Foles, turn the ball over, Kinnick will be in a frenzy. Arizona's best (and only) shot at winning this game will be to control the clock, keep the crowd out of the game, and keep turnovers to a minimum. The first quarter will probably be an emotional, fast-paced 15 minutes. After that, the Cats should look to settle down, and keep that crowd off its feet.

What's Up With DJK?

Oops Pow Surprise — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 15:04:38 -0000

There's rumblings afoot that Derrell Johnson-Koulianos-Popadopalis has once again worked his way onto Kirk Ferentz's bad side, to the point where DJK is only a second-stringer on the spring two-deeps; Trey Stross and Colin Sandeman are the starters.

Now, clearly, a lot can change between spring and the first weekend in September. Recall, if you will, that 12 months ago, the starting tailback was ~~Seamus Patel~~ Paki O'Meara. That situation changed a bit.

But this isn't the first time DJK has lost his starting spot; he was coming off the bench midway through the Big Ten slate before earning his job back. Here's what Ferentz said about him this past week:

"He's got to improve just like everybody else," Ferentz said of the man known as DJK. "There's a lot of little things that he can do better. With receivers, when they make plays, it's pretty obvious, but there are a lot of things that go on during the game that go unnoticed by the average person watching. That's a challenge for all the guys."

This, presumably, is a reference to downfield blocking and route running; we're not sure what else a receiver can do (or, in this case, neglect to do) that would merit being taken out of the starting lineup.

Moreover, this isn't just any starting receiver. Let's make an unlikely prediction and say that DJK doesn't improve his production one bit, and his stats over the next two seasons end up being the same as his first two seasons. That'd leave him with 162 catches and 2,242 yards for his career. As Morehouse pointed out, that's 30 yards away from Tim Dwight's record at Iowa, and 5 catches more than Kevin Kasper's record. So what we're really talking about is a player who's on pace to be on a very short list of the greatest receivers in Iowa history.

So then at some point, DJK's starting spot becomes a question of priority for Kirk Ferentz. At what point do you take the offense's only dynamic playmaker (sorry, Trey Stross) out of the game, and in favor of what in return? How relevant is downfield blocking when there's nobody to keep the defense from stacking 8 or 9 guys in the box on every play outside of 3rd and 25? I mean, no offense to Colin Sandeman, Trey Stross, Paul Chaney, or the comically porntastic Marvin McNutt, but... we're talking about the best Iowa receiver of at least the last 10 years. If Ferentz is going to start benching star players, he'd better be damned sure he's putting a better product on the field instead.

10/3	Arkansas State	W 24-21	11	49	4.5	19	0	2	12	6.0	8
10/10	Michigan	W 30-28	13	21	1.6	7	1	2	12	6.0	9
10/17	@Wisconsin	W 20-10	11	1	0.1	5	0	2	19	9.5	16
10/24	@Michigan State	W 15-13	6	30	5.0	11	0	1	23	23.0	23