SB Nation - Chad Henne

Back out on that road again

Sam @ WWAHT — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:30:32 -0000

Three weeks ago, Ohio State ignominiously fell on the road in West Lafayette to a determined Purdue Boilermakers squad playing roughly 7 miles over its head. The shocking loss snapped Ohio State's 16-game road winning streak and negated the possibility of the Buckeyes matching Michigan's 17-game road streak in the late 80's. Had Ohio State won that game, it would be returning to Happy Valley this Saturday in the hopes of snapping their archrival's record. Unfortunately, Terrelle Pryor's performance in front a not-that-hostile crowd on that fateful day make such pondering feel more like delusions of grandeur. Ohio State has had two weeks to lick its wounds at home against wildly overmatched foes, both in- and out-of-conference, and the narrative has shifted. Now, the Buckeyes head into Happy Valley with the goal of getting their road groove back.

Just how magical was that road streak? Well, from late 2005 until early 2009, it wasn't particularly controversial to say that Jim Tressel's teams played some of their best football in hostile environments. Five games in particular truly defined the run, and even a bonus one came out of conference:

In 2005, Ohio State arrived in Ann Arbor 8-2, but with an apparent renewed life following the heartbreaking loss to the Nittany Lions. Down 21-19 late in the fourth, Troy Smith thrust a dagger into the heart of Michigan fans (and it wouldn't be the last time):

Antonio Pittman would later seal the deal with a touchdown run, and the streak was on.

The next season, in the early September Texas heat, the preseason favorites for the national championship made quick work of the defending champion Texas Longhorns (sound NSFW):

It was after this game that the "road warrior" meme first gained traction. Heading into that game, there wasn't that much (setting aside preseason hype and rankings) in the Buckeyes' favor. Sure, Vince Young was gone, but Ohio State had to replace 9 starters on defense, and was still in search of a bona fide number one receiver. Nevertheless, for one magical night, the team put it all together and dominated a team that, even in retrospect, it probably shouldn't have dominated so thoroughly. The win catapulted the Buckeyes through an undefeated regular season and landed them a date with Florida (*single tear*) in Glendale.

But before all that, Ohio State had to take care of conference business, and that meant traveling to undefeated Iowa in late September, the last test of what had looked to be a brutal opening month going into the year. Unfortunately, Iowa ended up being fairly disappointing on the year, but that didn't stop this from being so much damn fun:

That marvelous catch and run was just a part of an epic 38-17 beatdown that would set a new standard for road beatdowns in which the good guys ride into town, rape the mascots and ride off on the women. Or, rather, with the opposing women-folk trussed to their wagon. Either way, the win solidified Ohio State's status as untouchable for the 2006 regular season.

Yes, 2006 Iowa set a standard. That is, until Ohio State returned to State College, Pennsylvania in 2007. Penn State was by no means a great team, but had all the necessary tools (except for Anthony Morelli, who was just a plain tool if you're a Nittany Lion) to pull off an upset of the top-ranked Buckeyes. At the site of Ohio State's last road loss, anything seemed possible. Instead, Ohio State crushed Penn State's larynx the moment the Nits showed signs of life in taking a 7-3 lead on their very first drive (apologies for the music):

Looking back on that game now, it's easy to say it was anomaly for Todd Boeckman, who never came close to approaching. It was not, however, anomalous for the team as a whole, which now had a reputation etched in stone for playing its best football on the road. Ironically, a shocking home loss to Illinois two weeks later only worked to solidify Ohio State's growing conference reputation as road juggernauts.

While the "road warrior" label did not die in 2007, I feel it's proper to end with the most thorough, soul-crushing domination of the entire streak. Yes, there were approximately 67 punts. Yes, Michigan had little-to-no chance of winning this game in the first place. Yes, Ohio State's offense didn't look particularly pretty, but, uh, I'm kinda used to that by now. I don't care. This is simply the stuff schadenfreude dreams are made of:

There are images from this game that will never die: Chad Henne assuming the fetal position, cowering from another Vernon Gholston sack. The Gun Show getting Henne on some other occasion, this time ensuring the team's best player has at least one more black mark on his senior season. Beanie Wells ending all doubt by putting the Buckeyes up 14-3 wit ha brilliant scoring one. Vaguely attractive Michigan coeds crying. This... this beautiful, beautiful thing:

While I hesitate to call it the beginning of any sort of end, the thoroughly demoralizing, soul-stomping victory in Ann Arbor, like a boot stomping on a human face forever, was arguably this streak's crowning achievement. Sure, the Buckeyes won more road games the next season; a last-minute victory at Wisconsin, twin jailsexings of Michigan State and Northwestern, and an even-in-all-but-the-turnover-margin-and-thus-the-final-score cro-magnon victory at Illinois. All were fun to watch, but none of them featured Buckeye football at its absolute best (ed. note: Michigan at least featured great defense) in truly pressure-packed situations (Madtown came close, but.... the Buckeyes hardly looked even competent for three quarters of that game), and thus, none of them truly merit inclusion as games that defined the streak. Michigan represented a farewell of sorts; the Buckeyes would not quite live up to their dominant road billing from there on out, and it finally came back to bite them in West Lafayette.

Thus, that streak is over. Dead. When Ohio State makes the trip to Happy Valley this weekend, it absolutely must attempt to recapture some of the magic that guided previous Ohio State squads into and out of hostile territory unblemished. Jim Tressel's winning formula is usually excellent on the road; home team turnovers plus a consistent ground attack, capable of grinding out 5+-minute scoring drives, take any crowd - including the Whiteout, if 2007 is any indication - out of the game, with a masterful, and at times, brutal efficiency. Yes, I'm all for boring these suckers to death. Games like these are when Tresselball's ability to slowly destroy an opponent's soul is paramount. Hopefully, this Buckeye team can cobble together enough of a running game to make this look a bit more like 2007 than 2005. Ohio State is "back out on that road again", as Steve Earle once sung, and in these situations, there really are "those that break and bend". Is Ohio State the other kind? We'll know soon enough.

Penn State Preview

Beauford — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 21:07:07 -0000

Hey, do you guys remember when Penn State would start that "we are...Penn State..." chant that is amongst the lamest in all of sports (I mean really, are we confused as to who the opponent is? Or do they have to remind themselves of who they represent? We all get it - Penn State was on the calander for this date a year ago), and Michigan would start chanting "WE OWN...PENN STATE..."? Yeah, that was a fun time, wasn't it? It always seemed - even in years that Michigan wasn't very good, and Penn State was very good (I'm looking at you, 2005), we'd find a way to beat them. Then it came crashing down. Or maybe it was just one game last year. Either way, a 3-9 season tends to distill some of the arrogance out of a fanbase, and to claim that Michigan owns anything besides the uniforms off their backs and maybe Minnesota is bordering on fan fiction. Ah, the life of a Wolverines fan in 2009.

On Offense

Penn State's defense is...well...it's really good, at least statistically. As I mentioned (read: drooled over), Penn State has two all-world defensive tackles with names like Odrick and Ogbu. While it sounds like an animated series for the Disney channel (don't mess with Phineus and Ferb, holmes), these two absolutely kill shit in the middle. I expect tons of pressure coming right at Forcier. Typically, this is the best way to disrupt a quarterback. Pressure up the middle is the #1 reason for happy feet, interceptions, and other poorly thought out decisions. However, with Tate being far more effective on the rollout than sitting comfortably in the pocket channeling Chad Henne, this pressure might not be a bad thing. However, it appears that Penn State is going to walk a safety up to the line on all but the most obvious passing downs, and have one of their beastly linebackers spying Tate at all times. If the pressure comes up the middle, Tate is going to have to keep his head about him, because against this defense, if he decides to take off an an ill-advised run, he's gonna get pasted. The LB's are going to try to contain Tate to the pocket, and let the monster DT pass rush up the middle clean up. On the plus side, the Defensive Ends for Penn State are definitely a notch below their NFL talent-types of last year. I look for a lot of Tate Moxie++ type programming of roll outs, buying time, and probably an INT or fumble (or both!) as he tries to make a play and stay alive. I expect plenty of screen-type-substances and play action to try to derail the pressure.

The good news is that, with all the worry of Tate escaping the pocket, I expect the run game to be fairly successful against what heretoforehas been a staunch run defense. With the tackles crashing in, Minor should be able to find some cutback lanes like he did last year when MINOR RAGE was first introduced. Additionally, as mentioned above, I expect that we will probably catch PSU in an all out pass rush at least once, and flip a screen to Brown or Odoms for a big gainer. The outside receivers have, against all but MAC opponents, been rendered fairly incapacitated, and I imagine that Penn State will do the same. If we can get Matthews or Hemingway or Stonum involved in the downfield passing game, it's because something isn't working defensively for Penn State. If any of those receivers catch fire, Penn State will be in serious trouble.

Molk is back. Yay for that. Now, as Brian points out in Mgoblog's preview, he's gotta go get some reach blocks - fundamentally difficult against even mediocre tackles - on the two best tackles in the league. Welcome back, kid. I would not be surprised to see Mooseman moved back to Center for a drive or two should Molk's layoff prove costly conditioning-wise.

On Defense

What's to say? SCM has detailed some of what Penn State is probably going to try to do to us. I expect a heavy, heavy dose of Royster, and Darryl Clark to be his fairly dependable if not spectacular self. Penn State's starting right tackle is out, and so is his backup, so Brandon Graham has a huge opportunity to really piss off Penn State fans. Clark is dependable, but also dependable on throwing up Stanzi-balls when he's pressured. Graham will see a ton of doubles, which should put Van Bergan and any miscellaneous blitzing LB in good situations. Pressure on Clark will be the key defensively, and will mask any shortcomings in the secondary as our safeties continue to be...well...our safeties.

Meanwhile, Royster was slow to get going at the beginning of the season, but has really come on as of late. I would love to play the "well, look at the defenses they've played!" card here, but uh, Michigan's run defense isn't exactly stellar either, although they are coming off two fairly impressive performances. As much as I dislike thinking about it, I think Royster's going to have a day against us - somewhere in the neighborhood of 135+ yards. This alone isn't enough to kill us, but we need NEED to avoid any Michigan State-esque 115 yard marches that eat 8 minutes of clock. Royster's going to get his, we just need to make sure he's getting it in non-back-breaking ways.

Speacial Teams

On Zoltan, to victory. Also, because Brian clearly isn't being emphatic enough (witness: Iowa) HOLD ON TO THE GODDAMN BALL.

Prediction Time

Penn State: Really good defense; mediocre offense

Michigan: Borderline-really good offense; mediocre defense

You know, if I'm going to roll into a game like this, I like our odds a lot better as such. This offense, when it gets going, is capable of shredding anyone regardless of defensive acumen. Meanwhile, the mediocre Penn State offense faces up against a mediocre Michigan defense, which is a true toss up. Michigan, I believe, is going to score points. What I don't know is if Penn State's offense is going to do the same. As I've said before: if Penn State is settling for field goals, they will lose.

Michigan busts 1 big play for 60+ yards and a TD
Tate fumbles once in Michigan territory
Clark kills at least two drives by throwing stupid passes under pressure
Royster goes for 140ish yards
Graham directly causes 3 sacks by making Clark roll into pressure, but doesn't get one himself
Penn State wins 24-17 by virtue of Royster eating clock and actually scoring TD's
I hope I'm wrong. I'm confident UM will play well and have a chance to win, but not confident enough to predict it.

Fun With Meaningless Statistics: How Michigan Freshman Quarterbacks Fared in Season Openers

Maize n Brew Dave — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 16:00:53 -0000

Rick Leach Awesomeness Courtesy via Spawn of MZone

Hard to believe, or maybe not so hard to believe depending on your view point, but Michigan had started a season with a true freshman under center only twice in its history prior to Tate Forcier's first snap against Western. That's a lot of football to consider. Now one good reason for this was way back in the day, Colleges and Universities actually had JV and Freshman teams, just like in large high schools through out the country. It was considered unseemly to have a young freshman compete against the older boys. Dagnabbit, he was likely to get hisself killed!

Around the forties and fifties JV and Freshman squads started going the way of the dinosaur (mostly due to WWII), and you started to see the modern, single University team. That posed another issue. Large schools with football histories started stockpiling all the best talent. There weren't scholarship limits, practice limits, etc... to keep these sorts of things under control. Frankly you probably could've fielded two or three championship caliber teams out of Alabama's practice squads in the 50's and 60's. The same could probably be said of Michigan, Ohio State, Texas, et al.

So the presence of a true freshman under center is a rather recent trend in college football. It's also something that's become more common with scholarship restrictions, national television, and schools being willing to foot the bill for a football program in exchange for the exposure it brings. What that means at places like Michigan and Bama and Texas is that there are fewer blue chip players willing to sit behind another blue chip player when they could be starting elsewhere (the exception, of course, is modern day USC. Bastards.).

Even so, major programs still managed to bring in two to three good quarterbacks into their programs to compete for the job. Usually they were staggered years, and this allowed the coaching staff to "groom" a player to take over. Case and point would've have been Matt Gutierrez, brought in to replace Navarre he was scheduled to guide the ship until he graduated and Chad Henne took over that assignment. But things don't always work out that way. In Rick Leach's case, he was the best quarterback at Michigan in his 1975 freshman season. It's not supposed to work that way. Big school's have depth, they don't need freshmen to step in. And in 1975 returning senior Mark Elzinga was supposed to take over. Didn't work out that way. Leach simply exceeded Elzinga is every category and earned the nod. In Henne's case, he got the nod over Gutierrez, not because he won the starting job, but because Gutierrez ended up having season ending surgery on his throwing arm!

(Stats and more after the Jump...)

via mikedesimone.com

This, of course, brings us to Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson, or Tatenard Robincier as they will henceforth be known. Since this is a discussion of starters, I'll leave Denard's stats out of the initial discussion, but throw them in for fun at the end. Tate's situation is analogous with Leach's rather than Henne's. In Henne's case, Gutierrez was the unquestioned starter prior to the first snap. He was a highly rated QB out of high school at California's Mater De high school and never lost a high school game. He was supposed to be the next great Michigan QB. In Tate and Leach's case, both came into scenarios where there was an incumbent, but underwhelming (very underwhelming), upperclassman marginally at the helm of the offense. In both cases, the freshman was immediately physically better than the incumbent and substantially more capable to run the offense.

Just like Leach, Forcier was called upon to use his legs to gain ground for the Wolverines. However unlike Leach, Forcier could throw the ball competently. In Henne's case, he wasn't a scrambler. Frankly, he moved like an oak tree and seemed to suffer the same amount of damage when taken down. The numbers comparison is pretty interesting though. Leach started at Wisconsin, making his debut even more amazing. Henne welcomed Miami (OH) to the Big House. And Tate, well, you know already, Western Michigan.

Here are the numbers

QB	Att-Cmp-Int	Yards	TD	Long	Sack	Rush Att	Gain	Lost	Total	TD	Long	YPC
Leach	10-2-3	34	1	N/A	N/A	8	N/A	N/A	30	0	N/A	3.75
Henne	24-14-1	142	2	25	3	4	7	13	-6	0	7	-1.5
Forcier	20-13-0	179	3	44	0	11	41	4	37	0	10	3.4
Robincier	24-15-0	198	3	44	0	22	121	10	111	1	43	5.05

There are all kinds of caveats to these numbers, but they're fun to look at anyway. Leach clearly went up against the toughest opponent in the toughest environment, and his numbers bare that out. Henne had a cupcake game at home with a loaded junior and senior laden team (and Braylon). His numbers bare that out, as does his reputation for being blessed with concrete feet with those two sacks and a pick. Forcier's somewhere in the middle. There are plenty of starters returning, but the 2009 squad is really, really young. Especially at the skill positions. Leach's team was ranked #2 in the country in his first game. Henne's was ranked 7 and 8 depending on the poll.

Forcier's team, notsomuch. Unranked. Predicted to go between 5-7 and 8-4. Coming off the worst season in history. Dissent. Investigations. Cats and Dogs. Living together. Mass hysteria!

Enough! I get the point.

The following numbers are meaningless, but they make me feel a little more comfortable about the coming season. Rick Leach's team finished the season 8-2-2 (7-1), getting hosed in the Orange Bowl when the officials looked the other way as Oklahoma's defense knocked Leach unconscious with an forearm to his head on a scramble. Henne's squad finished 9-3 (7-1), including a loss in the greatest Rose Bowl game ever played to Vince Young and Texas.

Forcier's season is just beginning, and the next step is against Notre Dame. But when a freshman steps in, and eclipses the numbers of two of Michigan's greatest quarterbacks, you have to be excited about his future and the future of Michigan's 2009 squad.

Gator Coaching Staff Changes Should Not Be Overlooked

Year2 — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 17:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Phil Sandlin - AP

Steve Addazio, offensive coordinator for the University of Florida, speaks about the state of the Gators' offense during football Media Day. (AP Photo/Phil Sandlin)

Browse more photos »

The main focus of all the preseason buzz about Florida has been the roster continuity, and for good reason. I, along with a lot of other people, am a believer that football success is more about the Jimmy's and the Joes than the Xs and the Os.

However, as is often the case with national title winning teams, Florida lost a couple coaches. Former offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Dan Mullen left to coach in the City of Cowbells, taking with him former tight ends coach John Hevesy. That left three roles and two personel spots to fill on the staff.

Hevesy was replaced by Brian White, who spent last season as the special teams coordinator and tight ends coach at Washington. He's now just tight ends coach. Mullen's old quarterbacks coach gig was filled by Scot Loeffler, who spent last year with the Detroit Lions but is better known for his work at Michigan.

If you're counting along at home, that means the two new coaches on a team trying to go undefeated were a combined 0-28 last season between the winless Huskies and Lions. Clearly Urban Meyer took more than last year into account with the hires. Most notably, White was named the AFCA Div. I-A Assistant Coach of the Year in 2004 for his work as Wisconsin offensive coordinator. Loeffler worked with Tom Brady and Brian Griese as a grad assistant before mentoring All-Big Ten selection John Navarre and UM's all time leader in yards, TDs, completions, and attempts, Chad Henne.

The offensive coordinator role did not go to Mr. Outside Hire, as those positions did though. The trendy pick among Gator fans who thought they were insiders was receivers coach Billy Gonzales. Folks figured Gonzales would need to get that job in order not to leave, as he's a hot name in coaching and had declined a job with the Jacksonville Jaguars the previous off season. He ended up turning down offers this off season from Lane Kiffin and the Cleveland Browns' Eric Mangini, despite not getting a promotion.

Instead Meyer tapped a guy he worked with back during his days as Notre Dame's receivers coach, Steve Addazio. Addazio coached the Irish's offensive line, tight ends, and special teams in those days, and he rose up UF's coaching ranks from just tight ends coach in 2005 to offensive line coach and assistant head coach in 2008. He did have one prior year as an offensive coordinator, with Indiana in 2004.

White has been largely overlooked this summer, but he'll be a key to the season. After clearing out the roster of tight ends and fullbacks upon arrival, switching them to other roles, Meyer brought them back late in the 2005 season after realizing you kind of need them in the SEC, even in a spread attack. Since then, the tight end position has become an important one in the Gator offense. Aaron Hernandez is going to be great, but behind him is a true freshman in Desmond Parks and that's about it. Parks' development will determine if Florida can run the double tight end sets that Hernandez and the now-graduated Tate Casey ran last season, not to mention there's only him and the walk ons if Hernandez should go down.

Loeffler has already made an impact, working with Tim Tebow and John Brantley on their throwing motions and footwork. In the scant practice videos I've seen, you can notice a difference in Tebow's delivery, and some practice reports have made a point to tell how good it looks now. Mullen was all right as a quarterbacks coach, but he was also coordinating the offense and, as a former tight end, he had little to no quarterbacking in his background. Loeffler is a quarterbacking clinician on the other hand, having played the position for Michigan in college and having never coached anything else.

The biggest question mark is how Addazio will do in his dual roles now. It took half a season before last year's offensive line to gel, and that was with both him and Hevesy (the assistant O-line coach) working on it. Will this year's line take as long come together now that Addazio is juggling both being the only offensive line coach and offensive coordinator?

There is the matter of play calling too. The offensive game planning has been a team effort among all of the offensive assistants under Meyer, with the head coach interjecting too. That much hasn't changed, though Loeffler brings a distinctly new and different voice that will need to be assimilated wisely into the system. Addazio will have the role of choosing what to do when, something he's done in just one season prior, and there's no doubt there will be some learning curve to it.

I would advise against seeing what kind of reviews Gator fans give him for it though, because they are never happy with the play calling no matter what. Even if the team wins by 50, they'll nitpick a third down call in the second quarter.

In any event, the perfect continuity in both the defensive ranks and defensive coaching staff contrasts with the moderate amount of turnover in the offensive ranks and offensive coaching staff. How well everything syncs will determine the difference between Florida being just good or elite.

The first big test of the year will come against Monte Kiffin, Eric Berry, and Tennessee in the third game of the season. Last year Florida played things close to the vest, content to simply return home with a win, as the Vols continually found ways to give the game away. The Gators scored just 24 offensive points, 17 of them off of drives of less than 50 yards, and were outgained by the Clawfense 258-243. Meyer even chose not to run up the score, running Chris Rainey into the back of the line inside UT's red zone with under three minutes to go.

The motivations are much different this time around, with an offensive explosion a la 2007 necessary to deliver the beatdown that so many are expecting to come. If Florida is to make good on the storyline for that game, not to mention the storyline for the season, all three of Addazio, Loeffler, and White will need to be successes.

Four Star Quarterbacks, Success, Failure, and What Michigan Football can Expect out of Tate Forcier

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 17:33:59 -0000

As a general rule, highly rated quarterback recruits are the crown jewel of any school's recruiting class. Sure you can bring in a #1 Linebacker or a #1 Offensive Tackle, but those guys don't score points and their faces aren't plastered all over ABC or CBS every fall Saturday. Offenses simply don't work without an able bodied/minded signal caller under center.

But high school kids rarely turn out to be the person we thought they'd be coming out of high school. While Dr. Saturday has pointed out on numerous occasions (link no longer available) that a 5* player is far more likely than a 4* or 3* player to make the NFL, for some reason a 5* is far more likely to get himself arrested than a 4* or 3* (from the 2005 class at least). You get your five star flame outs (Ryan Perrilloux) far more often than your #1DC's like Matt Stafford, and you're just as likely to be starting a three star quarterback that you recruited as "insurance" than your four/five star savior.

For Michigan, this is not welcome news. Since the departure of five star rated Chad Henne, Michigan has gone from five star rated Ryan Mallett to no star rated Nick Sheridan to four star rated Steven Threet, back to Sheridan, then to two star Justin Feagin, to Threet, to Sheridan, and now, finally, to four star rated Tate Forcier. Looking at the preceding list, it's easy to disillusioned by the rankings process. Mallett transferred, Threet transferred (again), Sheridan was basically useless, and Feagin is being switched to receiver. As a result, Michigan will be starting a first year quarterback for the second straight year.

Despite Michigan's string of bad luck under center last year, it has failed to temper the enthusiasm of the Wolverine faithful when talking about Tate Forcier's first snaps. While (thankfully) this enthusiasm hasn't gone all Beano Cook, it is palpable when you talk to a Michigan fan. And to his credit, Forcier has done something to stoke that fire. Four passing touchdowns and one running touchdown in your spring game, your first anything against college competition, will get people excited.

Oddly, in watching that video the first thing that jumps out at me is not, OMG Savior!, it's "our defense is going to be baaaaaaaaaaad." But I digress. Watching this video is incredibly reassuring for any Michigan fan who had to sit through or pour over bad video of last year's spring practice. Combined, IIRC, Threet and Sheridan combined for 6 turnovers and no touchdowns via the air in 2008. And that performance was turned in against what proved to be the worst Michigan defense in Michigan history. I'm just saying.

So it's kind of hard to truly judge what we can expect out of Forcier against live competition, you know, the kind that will actually try to tackle him. Last year's quarterback play set the bar very low. But, Forcier seems to have the unique abilities required to run Rodriguez system. Tate showed the ability to throw on the run. Go deep. Scramble out of a sack. Not spike himself. These are good things.

Last year Michigan quarterbacks combined to go an abysmal 165/338 for 1718 yards, 11TD/12INT and a miserable combined QB rating of 95.2. Nick Sheridan's numbers alone make you cringe, a QB rating of 81.1 and a 2/5 TD/INT ratio despite starting a handful of games. If you just threw up a little in your mouth, you're not alone. Say what you want about changing systems, these guys were not and are not good quarterbacks in any system with numbers like that. Last year Forcier's numbers look like a shiny beacon in comparison. 208/326 for 3424 yards, 23/15 TD/INT ratio, 783 yards rushing on 92 attempts, and 12 rushing TDs. But lets break this down a bit.

For context on the competition, Forcier's High School, Scripps Ranch, is a Division II South school in California. Scripps is in the middle tier high school division for California schools with enrollment between 2400 and 1100 kids. The bigger Division I schools have enrollment from 2400 and up [some almost reaching 5000 enrollment]. Scripps is one of the larger Division II schools with enrollment around 2100. So he definitely facing decent competition, he's just not facing a Long Beach Poly kind of talent pool (4600+ kids).

Now, onto the numbers. One thing that jumps out at me is the 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio in 2008. Forcier, if you look at his numbers, had his best season as a HS junior where he was 21/5 TD/INT. But that's two years ago, with different personnel. Last year in 12 games, Forcier had just three games without an INT, and threw 2 picks or more in five games. Tate's playoff numbers were a mixed bag, throwing for over 300 yards in one game, but tossing a combined 5 picks in both play off games he played in. The glass half empty kind of person can take that as Tate wilting under pressure.

But the reality is that's far from the case. Scripps was a good, but not great team last year going 8-4. Their second round bow-out from the DII playoffs was against 12-0-1 Oceanside, the defending state champs, who won their fifth consecutive Division II section title in 2008. Forcier scored both TDs in the loss for Scripps, and a look at the boxscore shows there's not a lot you can do when you give up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Looking at the results, you'll note a couple of games where Scripps gave up 40+ points, including 70(!) to the eventual state champs, Cathedral. FWIW, Forcier was 21/36 for 295 yards, 4TDs and 1INT in the Cathedral game.

What all this means is Michigan is getting a kid who has taken his lumps, knows what it's like to get planted, and has played well against higher levels of competition. Is he the Rich Rod savior we've been hoping for? Chances are we're not going to know for a while. After the jump you'll find the Rivals rankings for every quarterback receiving four stars or higher since 2005, and a few three stars of note. Of this group, over five years, you're only going to find five or six quarterbacks that jump off the page at you. Three of those page jumpers are: Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy. Surprisingly, Bradford and McCoy were three star recruits.

If it seems like things are a little off moving towards 2005, you're right. In '05 Rivals handed out only thirteen four star plus ratings to quarterbacks. In 2009, Rivals handed out twenty five four star plus ratings, nearly double the 2005 amount. In my opinion, this might have something to do with the precipitous drop in production from 4* plus players. When you're handing out high ratings like candy, eventually you degrade the overall effect of that rating. It also explains why I'm nervous about anointing a four star quarterback, even a good one, as a program savior or more modestly as an offensive savior.

So what do these numbers mean for Michigan and Tate? It means we should all cool our jets a tad. Given the number of four and five star flameouts over the last five years, a four star QB is statistically more likely to be a bust than a success. Further, regardless of pedigree, even the best of the best get hammered in year one. Everyone remembers the lumps Chad Henne took as a first year starter, the bad throws, the bailouts by Braylon. And Chad was one of the highest ranked QB recruits in the country at the time. Sam Bradford's been a starter since day one but he got beaten down fairly regularly too. What helped Braford, and what is a major question mark for Forcier, is Bradford's OU defense was AWESOME that year and Bradford often had the opportunity to fix things when he messed up.

Tate's in that middle ground between OMG SHIRTLESS and good, solid prospect. On the negative side, he's shorter than we'd like. He's got good, but not great arm strength. He's shown a propensity, at least at the High School level to throw some picks. On the positive, he has shown great escapability. Great instincts. Good decision making. Has a resume jam packed with awards and MVPS. And an arm that is more than capable of delivering the ball down field and into tight pockets mid field. But all this is conjecture before he plays a single game. So before we all start bringing offerings to his temple, let's allow the kid to show us what he can do in a real game environment.

But here's where the realistic fan in me comes out; it's really hard not to get excited about what he's shown so far. On the basis of his high school career, spring performance, and Rodriguez offense, 2,300 passing yards, 700 rushing yards, 15/9 TD/INT, 6 Rushing TD seems like a reasonable expectation. Juice Williams threw for 3,000 plus last year while running for 700 yards on a bad team. Having seen both players throw, I like Forcier considerably more than Williams as a passer. The rushing numbers will be comparable just because of the nature of the offense. Forcier's going to run the ball. It's a necessity in this offense. So he'll have every opportunity to gain rushing yards.

I may be underselling the passing a tad, but I don't know how well our receivers are going to play this year. They should be a solid group, but there were a lot of dropped and misplayed balls last year. If the receivers play better, I think Tate can get them the ball and my projection would go up from there.

Thoughts?

Here's the list of ranked quaterbacks from 2005 forward. Help me fill in the blanks on these guys if you can.

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2009

1Russell Shepard 5* LSU

2Tyrik Rollison 4* Auburn

3Eugene Smith 4* West Virginia

4Kevin Newsome 4* Penn State

5Tate Forcier 4* Michigan

6Cody Green 4* Nebraska

7Nathan Scheelhaase 4* Illinois

8Shavodrick Beaver 4* Tulsa

9Casey Pachall 4* TCU

10Jordan Reed 4* Florida

11Raymond Cotton 4* Ole Miss

Not included – 14 Denard Robinson 4* ATH - Michigan

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2009

1Matt Barkley 5* USC

2Garrett Gilbert 5* Texas

3Aaron Murray 4* Georgia

4Tajh Boyd 4* Clemson

5Bryn Renner 4* North Carolina

6Richard Brehaut 4* UCLA

7AJ McCarron 4* Alabama

8Tom Savage 4* Rutgers

9Andrew Maxwell 4* Michigan State

10Allan Bridgford 4* California

11Zach Mettenberger 4* Georgia

12Tyler Russell 4* Mississippi State

13Josh Nunes 4* Stanford

14Ryan Mossakowski 4* Kentucky

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2008

1Terrelle Pryor 5* OSU – You may have heard of him

2E.J. Manuel 4* Florida State

3MarQueis Gray 4* Minnesota - eligibility issues

4Robert Griffin 4* Baylor - Starter

5Matt Scott 4* Arizona

6Darron Thomas 4* Oregon - Bench

7Curt Phillips 4* Wisconsin

8B.J. Daniels 4* South Florida

9Kody Spano 3* Nebraska

10Jaybo Shaw 3* Georgia Tech - Included for awesome name

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2008

1Blaine Gabbert 5* Missouri - sorta starter

2Dayne Crist 5* Notre Dame - Bench

3Mike Glennon 4* N.C. State - starter

4Andrew Luck 4* Stanford

5Star Jackson 4* Alabama

6Landry Jones 4* Oklahoma

7Jacory Harris 4* Miami - Starter

8Jordan Jefferson 4* LSU

9Tyler Wilson 4* Arkansas

10Kyle Parker 4* Clemson

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2007

1Tyrod Taylor 5* VTech – Starter

2Cameron Newton 5* Florida

3Aaron Corp 4* Southern Cal - Starter

4Stephen Garcia 4* South Carolina - washout?

5Willy Korn 4* Clemson - Starter

6Keith Nichol 4* Oklahoma - Bench/transfer?

7Chris Forcier 4* UCLA - Washout/transfer

8Kodi Burns 4*Auburn

9Josh Nesbitt 4* Georgia Tech - starter

10Logan Gray 4* Georgia

11Kellen Kiilsgaard 4* Stanford

12Bradley Starks 4* West Virginia

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2007

1Jimmy Clausen 5* Notre Dame - Starter

2Ryan Mallett 5* Michigan – Transfer/Starter

3John Brantley 4* Florida

4Mike Paulus 4* North Carolina

5Peter Lalich 4*Virginia

6Pat Bostick 4*Pittsburgh - Bench

7Jarrett Lee 4* LSU - sorta starter

8Robert Marve 4* Miami-FL - washout/transfer

9Steven Threet 4* Georgia Tech – Sadly, washout/Transfer x2.

10BJ Coleman 4* Tennessee - nothing

Rivals.com: Dual-threat quarterbacks 2006

1Tim Tebow 5* Florida (Football Jesus)

2Demetrius Jones 4* Notre Dame Washout/Transfer – Now a linebacker at NIU

3Jevan Snead 4* Texas – Transfer/Starter at Ole Miss

4Jake Locker 4* Washington – Punching bag/Starter

5Jeremy Ricker 4* Maryland

6Austen Arnaud 4* Iowa State

7Garrett Green 4* Southern Cal - bench

8Sherrod Harris 4* Texas - bench

9Antonio Henton 4* Ohio State – Who?

11Rick Stanzi 3* Iowa – Starter/Manzi

14Adam Weber 3* Minnesota - Starter

15Nate Davis 3* Ball State - NFL

16Todd Reesing 3* Kansas – Marky M says Balla.

Rivals.com Pro-style quarterbacks 2006

1Matthew Stafford 5* Georgia 1DC

2Mitch Mustain 5* Arkansas Washout

3Isiah Williams 4* Illinois Starter

4Josh Freeman 4* Kansas State Starter/washout/NFL?

5Pat Devlin 4* Penn State washout/transfer

6Kevin Riley 4* California sorta starter

7Neil Caudle 4* Auburn bench

8Chris Smelley 4* South Carolina sorta starter/washout

9Zach Frazer 4* Notre Dame washout

10Tyler Lyon 3* Arizona Bench

11Greg McElroy 3* Alabama – Starter (sorta)

12Sam Bradford 3* Oklahoma (Heisman winner)

Rivals.com Pro-style quarterbacks 2005

1Mark Sanchez 5* Southern Cal - NFL

2Jonathan Crompton 4* Tennessee - sorta starter

3Harrison Beck 4* Nebraska

4Derek Shaw 4* Arizona State

5Willie Tuitama 4* Arizona - One Time Stater/washout

6Rob Schoenhoft 4* Ohio State - bench

7Joe Cox 4* Georgia - bench?

8Arkelon Hall 3* Washington St.

9Domenic Natale 3* Michigan State

10Sean Canfield 3* Oregon State

11Bill Stull 3* Pittsburgh - starter

12Evan Sharpley 3* Notre Dame - Graduated

14Dustin Sherer 3* Wisconsin - sorta starter

15Colt McCoy 3* Texas - Starter Heisman Candidate

Rivals.com: Dual-threat quarterbacks 2005

1Ryan Perrilloux 5* LSU - Washout of spectacular fashion

2Jake Christensen 4* Iowa - Washout

3Ike Whitaker 4* Virginia Tech - Washout

4Josh Portis 4* Florida - ?

5Kyle Reed 4* California - ?

6Chase Daniel 4* Missouri - NFL?

7Jimmy Johns 3* Alabama - Proveyor of Fine Powdered Products

10Zac Robinson 3* Oklahoma State - Starter

The Mt. Rushmore of Michigan

Beauford — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 15:55:00 -0000

A camera sweeps down from on high amidst swirling spotlights and music that somehow blends marching band fanfare with urban hiphop. The letters ESPN fly across the screen with a wooshing noise, each landing on the far left with a metallic clank. Rick Reilly, our host, sits on an elevated dias with 3 empty chairs. The backdrop is an empty "Mount Rushmore" waiting to be carved with four Michigan sports heroes.

Hey everyone, thanks for joining me. Since I came up with the idea of doing a "Mount Rushmore" for each sport, state, college, team, and local community, I thought I'd go ahead and host a weekly segment here on ESPN highlighting and debating some of the best sporting figures from around the globe...

SG: [from the live audience] I'm glad you came up with the idea

Sorry about that folks, it looks like a blogger's gotten his teeth in a curl!

[Audience laughs]

[trying to yell over the audience's laughter] What does that even mean?!? Are you guys all idiots? [security ushers him out]

Joining me today are three of the University of Michigan's finest in athletics to debate who should go on the Mount Rushmore of Michigan. They are:

Rich Rodriguez!

[ambling out on stage with an aww shucks grin and down-home accent] Hey Rick, it's great to fuckin' see your ass, motherfucker.

Whoa, nobody told coach practice is over!

[Justin Boren runs from the audience crying]

[continuing] Aaaand here's Chad Henne!

[Walks confidently on the stage, takes a seat, and stares icily into the nearest camera, which isn't the one that is currently live]

He always did lock onto one target...and finally, here's Lloyd Carr, everybody

[Shakes Rick's hand] All the people like us are we, and everyone else is They.

Kipling, right Coach? That's one of my favorites. We're here today debate which four sets of beautiful, hard, rock hard smiling teeth should be carved into the Mount Rushmore of Michigan athletics. Just thinkin' about those smiles, the teeth...let's start with Quarterbacks!

I always prefer to believe the best of everybody, it saves so much trouble.

C'mon coach, give us a name! All you've done since I've gotten here is quote Kipling. Lord knows I don't have as much knowledge as you, but I'll go on a limb and say Tom Brady should probably be on there.

[turns and grabs Rich's arm urgently, and whispers] Words are, of course, the most powerful drug used by mankind.

[still looking in the wrong camera] Tom Brady didn't even start his senior year. Shouldn't the...

[bursting through the doors, stage left] Boom, motherfucker! Long as you're talking QB's let's talk about the guy with the cannon arm and the junk to match. [takes long swig of Jack] Put the Mallet up there on that wall.

Kid, look, you weren't even supposed to play your freshman...

Yeah, I was gonna play 'till your gay hick-ass showed up and started milkin' them cows and manure and shit, boom! Malletted. [flips out a beeper] a'right, I'm outta here, check you later Michi-fags. [takes another swig of jack, exits the stage].

Ooookay, I think it's settled then! The first face up on the Michigan Mt. Rushmore is Ryan Mallet!

Wait a second, I....

[interrupting] Alright, you guys better step up your game, I hope you wore a dental dam from what young Mallet just gave you; tooth joke, what?

Let's take a look at some of the historic coaches that have graced the sideline of Michigan, Rich, any thoughts?

Well, I think a highly underrated coach at Michigan, and a great mentor to me was Don Nehlen who coached quarterbacks under Bo here at Michigan, and later was the head coach at West Virginia, and yet, he was never a head coach, and it'd be pretty hard to leave Bo off any list of head coaches, even with such men as Oosterbaan, Yost, and even this guy sitting next to me, Carr, as competition.

Well, for a guy who doesn't know michigan tradition, you sure seem to have studied up!

Well, I think tradition is important, especially at a school like Michigan, but it's not the only thing. We need to get our players and....

Yeah, let's put Bo up there.

Not so fast, my friend. I own your ass.

[hangs head, looks away]

If any coach is going up there, it's gonna be yours truly.

We have forty million reasons for failure, but not a single excuse.

You're damn right, son. I'll be going now.

Ho-ho-hokay! Jim Tressel, you're the next face up on Michigan's Mt. Rushmore!

But wait, that doesn't even make sense! You might as well throw Terrelle Pryor and Charlie Weis up there while you're at it!

Done and done! Ladies and Gentlemen, your Mt. Rushmore of Michigan: Ryan Mallet, Jim Tressel, Terrelle Pryor, and Charlie Weis!

It's clever, but is it Art?

That's for our audience to decide, coach [gets out a pair of binoculars and pretends to gaze up at the Mt. Rushmore] whoa...looks like Jim could use some floss there....