SB Nation - Nick Sheridan

BSD Staff Predictions: Michigan Wolverines

BSD — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:17:31 -0000

3 months ago: Michigan offensive lineman Mark Ortmann (71) watches as quarterback Tate Forcier (5) is hit by Eastern Michigan linebacker Neal Howey (40) and defensive tackle Javon Reese (90) during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009, in Ann Arbor, Mich. Forcier was helped off the field but returned to the game in No. 25 Michigan's 45-17 win. (AP Photo/Tony Ding)

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It's Michigan week. It's your BSD staff predictions. You know the drill.

RUTS Says...

Brain says Penn State, heart says Michigan. Looking at the Wolverines, their defense seems poorly equipped to handle Penn State's attack. You know, other than the fact that Brandon Graham is lining up against our 3rd team offensive right tackle. There's that. Still, their linebackers are prone to jumping on play-action fakes and the secondary isn't great. If Penn State can move the ball on the ground with any sort of competence, Clark could conceivably turn that into a big day (in fact, both teams have significant issues at both safety positions). It'll be up to the interior group of Eliades, Wisniewski, and Troutman to open up holes. Eliades looked downright menacing pulling around the line and leading Royster against Minnesota.

Defensively for Penn State, there's bad news. Tate Forcier may be a mistake-prone freshman, but he's still not Nick Sheridan. He played poorly against Iowa and became rather skittish under pressure. If Penn State can get to him, he'll turn it over. Odrick and Ogbu will be their usual disruptive selves, but what will PSU get from the edge? Denard Robinson is a concern, naturally, but Penn State tends to be rather disciplined on defense. Dynamic and surprising? No, but disciplined.

But it's Michigan, and Michigan Means Puckering from the coaching staff. Even when Penn State has a clearly superior team, like last year, it's a horrific struggle. This is not a clearly superior Penn State team, but it's good enough to be a 4 1/2 point favorite on the road. They're a bad matchup for Michigan, save the obvious Graham v. Poti battle. Insert kicking game caveat (I'll be shocked if Michigan doesn't score or set up an easy touchdown on a kick return) and crackpot officiating conspiracy theory here (however, if I see Dave Witvoet's face, all bets really are off and I'll spend Saturday afternoon in the fetal position if Penn State leads by any less than 20 points).

Like it or not, this game goes down to the wire. I will not be remotely surprised if Penn State loses.

Prediction: Penn State 21, Michigan 20

BSD Mike Says...

If you've been paying attention around the interwebs, this preview shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.

On paper, I don't see any reason why Penn State should lose this game. They have better talent, more depth, more experience, and I would even say better coaching. But, it's Michigan, where officials don't seem to give us any calls. It's Ann Arbor, where Nittany Lion dreams go to die. So that has me scared.

I think the Penn State front seven should be able to contain the Michigan running game. On his podcast, Brian asked me how confident I was in this and I mentioned this isn't the first zone read option team Penn State has played and I pointed to Illinois as an example. Brian, perhaps rightfully so, kind of scoffed at the remark suggesting Illinois is not a true test. This is true since I think Michigan has more athleticism at running back and Forcier is a better passer than Juice Williams. But I should have expanded my statement to say this is a very experienced front seven for Penn State. Guys like Navorro Bowman, Josh Hull, Sean Lee, Jared Odrick, and Ollie Ogbu have been the anchor of the defense for three years now. These guys have been around the block. They know the drill by now. They will not be fooled.

But the defensive ends are another story. Jack Crawford, Jerome Hayes, and Eric Latimore do not have a lot of experience. How well they keep up with Rich Rodriguez's cat-and-mouse game will determine how well Penn State contains the Michigan offense.

When Penn State is on offense I believe they have the balance to take advantage of what Michigan gives them. I think the Wolverines will try to take away the running game by stacking the box and hope they can force Daryll Clark into making some turnovers. This could open up some big plays to Chaz Powell and Derek Moye off of play action. And after our discussion with Maize-n-Brew this week where he mentioned their weakness in covering tight ends, I'm interested to see if Andrew Quarless can have a big day.

The wildcard in all of this will be Joe Paterno. Will he allow the offense to open up the playbook? Will he let the Tom Bradley defense attack the freshman quarterback? Or will he pucker up at the first sign of trouble and hope to hang on for a 13-10 win like he did in 2007? I have a good feeling about this game, but I think it will be closer than we all care for it to be.

Prediction: Penn State 27, Michigan 24

KevinHD Says...

The general feeling is uneasiness, and I’ve been trying to figure out all week if that is the reality of the situation or just the annual lead up to the Michigan game. The 2002 and 2005 games will die hard.

But it’s important to be levelheaded here. The defense has been playing lights out, seven games in and not a single first half touchdown. Yeah? Well Rittenberg has your Debbie Downer right here:

We've seen Penn State rise to No. 2 nationally in scoring defense (8.7 ppg) despite facing no FBS offense ranked higher than 79th.

Michigan, on the other hand, is second in both rushing and passing yards per attempt in the Big Ten, although helped by 700-something total yards against one of the worst teams they are eligible to play against. But it wasn’t just Delaware State that showed up to play Michigan with a sub-part defense. The average rank of the D1-A defenses they’ve faced is 68; that includes two teams at 100+.

Basically, something has to give. Either Penn State can’t continue to dominate on defense or Michigan’s two thousand percent year over year increase (rounding) in offense will come to a halt. Vegas (47.5 o/u, PSU -4.5) is effectively predicting Michigan to hit around 21 points, which would be a season low for them.

So to run with this scientifically questionable analysis: can Penn State score more than 21 points? I suspect a slow start but persistent ground game will get them there. Super-soft cover-3 keeps Michigan in it in the 4th, but I remain cautiously optimistic.

Prediction: Penn State 34, Michigan 24

Hail To The Victors! That's How You're Supposed To Eat a Cupcake

SCM — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 11:00:22 -0000

Photo by John T Greilick via multimedia.detnews.com

727 yards of total offense. Yes, a Boeing's worth of yards in a single game. 442 of those yards were in the first half, which saw the teams enter the locker-rooms with the score standing at 49-3. What can you say? Delaware State was indeed awful. That said, it was really nice to see us just put the hammer down from the get go and put this one well out of reach. One could also call it refreshing. Obviously a ton of positives to take away from this performance, not the least of which is that it was accomplished without Carlos Brown, Brandon Minor, and short of the opening series, Tate Forcier. That Michigan emerged from this game without an injury to anyone and got as many players much needed experience was about all we could've hoped for. I certainly wasn't a fan of this game even being on the schedule, but since it was, I don't think the team could've handled it any better than they did on the field.

Miscellaneous

- Nicely done Purdue! Congrats to the Boilers and as I imagine many of their fans are saying: about time. I just had to link to the following from The Buckeye Blog:

One of the biggest problems with the current BCS system is that when you play in the toughest conference in the country, it is nearly impossible to make it out of conference play unscathed. First a fifth ranked Penn State drops to Iowa powerhouse. Now the 8th ranked Buckeyes go down to Purdue who were only a play or two from turning a 1-5 record into a 6-0 record.

Unlike the SEC, the Big Ten fronts at least seven teams with the ability to do serious damage year after year. Along with the rivalry games which can go either way, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin provide bruising, physical play that would leave a PAC 10 team wilted.

Wait, what?! Now then, no offense Boilermaker fans, but let's be honest here. This was a Purdue team that was thoroughly outplayed in most phases of the game by Northern Illinois. A team roundly predicted by the vast majority of talking heads to be battling for the 10th place spot in the conference this season. The Buckeyes lost to a 1-5 team, albeit a team that's 1-5 thanks to a few close ones, they were still 1-5 and no combination of "a play or two" gets them remotely close to 6-0. Top 10 football teams probably shouldn't lose to 1-5 teams. Also, he must be excluding USC from that "leaving a PAC 10 team wilted" talk, since, you know, they took care of OSU as well (albeit in less impressive fashion than Purdue). This game was not an example of how huge of a gauntlet the conference is, but rather just how "meh" Ohio State is capable of playing. It will be awfully interesting to see how the rest of that fan-base reacts to this one, and Terrelle Pryor's performance in particular.

- The top 3 teams in the country all looked pedestrian at best Saturday. Florida certainly did not look like the #1 team in the nation against Arkansas... a team that Alabama put a serious whoopin' on not too long ago. Of course, Alabama had trouble putting away South Carolina, who is still South Carolina last I checked.... And Texas went out and outlasted a Sam Bradford-less Oklahoma in a game that saw its share of offensive ineptitude. There's simply not a dominant team out there right now, and that's just fine with me.

- I watched the majority of the second half of the USC/ND game and the thing that really stood out to me was just how terrible Charlie Weis continues to be at managing a football game. He passes up a field goal opportunity to go for it on 4th and short in the second half, at a time when I thought to myself, "kick the FG, there's tons of time". Those three points probably would've been pretty big in that last minute wouldn't they? Then, ND lets 10 seconds run off the clock inside the USC 10 yardline on their final possession when they had a timeout in their pocket... why? That's two plays down there! Yeeeeesh.

- Indiana, who was coming off of a shellacking at the hands of, ahem, Virginia, came out and beat the pants off of Illinois (a late Illini TD made it look closer than it ever was), who now find themselves at 1-5.

- One other note from the ND game... since the refs have suddenly started calling Michigan for this "illegal formation due to a lineman not being within X inches of the guy next to him in relation to the line of scrimmage" garbage I've been paying more attention to how other teams line up. ND's tackles were vast distances off the line of scrimmage at many times throughout the game... stunningly no flags were thrown for it.

more after the jump

Offense

- Ok so 727 total yards and 10.1 yards per play... everyone looked great at times and we didn't show a darn thing to Penn State. There's just not tons to discuss, but let's see what we can scrounge together eh?

- I might be wrong but I think there were FIVE players who scored the first TD of their careers today: Kelvin Grady, Martell Webb, Mike Cox, Vincent Smith, Brandon Graham (yes that counts), and

- Michigan's QBs combined for 15-18, 266 yards and 2 TDs. Forcier looked sharp on his series and thankfully got to rest the rest of the day. My one quibble, and it's really really minor: I would've liked to have gotten Denard Robinson a few more passing attempts, I mean, 3 for 4 with 2 TDs and all, but really would've liked to have seen him get more reps where he got a chance to make a read or two and throw the ball. Again, that's nitpicking of the highest order. How about Nick Sheridan looking downright efficient in there? Nicely done Nick. Of course I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Cone as well!

- 15 passes to 11 different receivers... wow.

- Zero punts. Yay. Sorry Zoltan.

- The offensive line looked like a machine, like they were supposed to against a team like this, simple execution gets a big nod of approval.

- 54 rushes for 461 yards. Every back looked good out there. I really liked what I saw out of Vincent Smith, nice job young man. Shaw got the start but had as "quiet" of a nine carry 73 yard day as one can. Mike Cox has certainly shown flashes of brilliance in limited carries. I'm not going to extrapolate much from this game in and of itself, but I feel entirely comfortable saying we're stacked something fierce at the tailback position.

Defense

- 6 points, no TDs, nothing jumps out at me here, we dominated, we didn't give up anything stupid, tons of people saw the field, what else do you say?

Special Teams

- Hey, a blocked punt! A bit later than I predicted, but a special teams TD is always great to see, especially when it's Brandon Graham rumbling into the endzone with it!

Overall

Photo by John T. Greilick via multimedia.detnews.com

- Yeah, that about says it all... how nice is it to just say, "Well, we completely dominated a team we were supposed to dominate"? I'm still opposed to having a game like this on the schedule, but I can't complain with how we played it. Couldn't have asked for more heading into next Saturday.

GO BLUE!

Notre Dame at Michigan: The Preview

CW — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 14:00:46 -0000

My first visit to Notre Dame was as a senior in high school in March of 2004. Due to the generosity of the great Mr. Pete Shoop, my dad and I got front row seats to watch the Fighting Irish hockey team take out the favored Michigan Wolverines in the JACC. That September was my first Notre Dame football game, where the Fighting Irish football team took out the favored (and Rose Bowl-bound) Michigan Wolverines. In September of 2005, in Charlie Weis' second game as Irish head coach, Notre Dame went into the Big House and defeated the favored Michigan Wolverines.

This was a trend I would have been happy to see continue, but sadly, 2006 happened. Then 2007, and a pair of Yakety Sax montages later, the Michigan football program had asserted its dominance over the Irish in rather dramatic, quarterback-destroying fashion. The 2008 game in South Bend was some salve on the wound (a 21-0 lead ten minutes into the game tends to help mend broken hearts to some degree), but it wasn't quite enough. For the sake of exorcising the slapstick montage-worthy demons of '06 and '07, Notre Dame needs another win at Ann Arbor.

This request seemed considerably easier to fill with the turmoil surrounding the program after a 3-9 season, but the over-practicing allegations served as a circle-the-wagons/cry-at-a-press-conference opportunity for the maize and blue, and they handled Western Michigan with ease in their opener. The Forcier/Robinson combination at quarterback appears to be leaps and bounds better than everything trotted out under center last year, and things seem to be heading towards the usual Rich Rodriguez second year bounce.

There are a number of barriers between Notre Dame and a winning streak against Michigan, first and foremost being this game is being played on the road. On one hand, I'm not particularly worried about the crowd, but this Irish team was dreadful away from the friendly confines last year. This may have conveniently coincided with playing some of their tougher opponents (Southern Cal, Boston College, Michigan State) outside of South Bend, but still, the 2-4 record isn't great. What's even worse is the amazing -17 turnover differential, versus +12 at home (amazingly, Notre Dame didn't turn the ball over once in the losses to Syracuse and Pitt). You'd like to think that a junior quarterback bookended by two senior tackles would equal safety and security, but I can't shake the images of 2007 from my mind, and until Clausen and company prove they can move the ball down the field without firing a round or two into their feet, I'll just continue being nervous, thanks.

The biggest problem for the Irish is going to be in the trenches. To keep the offense moving, they'll need to contain the speed, size and talent of the Wolverine front. Brandon Graham is likely a future first round pick, and he's joined by freshmen Mike Martin (red shirt) and Craig Roh (true). There's some beef up there with a history of terrorizing Notre Dame quarterbacks, and this will be one of the tougher tests for the Irish offensive line after doing a very capable job in dealing with Nevada's pass rush. I don't think it's a stretch to say the caliber of athlete on Michigan might be slightly more polished than those hailing from the great city of Reno. We will address this later, but unless the Michigan secondary has gotten considerably better, I'm comfortable with the passing attack being able to pick them apart if there's time for Clausen to make any sort of read. If the line starts breaking down and chaos reigns, cover your eyes, as it's going to be a long, drunk afternoon for the Irish faithful.

Concern for the Irish on the other side of the ball stems from the Michigan offense, which is not dissimilar to Nevada's. Last year the Wolverines moved the ball well despite an early deficit, and considering the yards-per-carry achieved by the Wolf Pack, this should be a continued concern for Tenuta's defense. Not only was last year not a ringing success for the Irish defense (although Corwin Brown was more involved at that point), Pat White and Owen Schmitt ran wild down in the Gator Bowl in 2007, another instance of Rodriguez's offense besting Tentua's defense. At this point, Michigan fans can only dream of having a backfield combination that potent, but they certainly laid the hammer down on a Yellow Jacket defense that had been awfully stingy up until that point.

In the game last September, the Wolverines outgained the Irish by well over a hundred yards, and while the yards per rush wasn't overly intimidating (3.8), it was the penalties (7 for 79) and turnovers (6) that doomed the visitors. If you were to allow that the Forcier/Robinson combination is an improvement over Sheridan/Threet - and I think most UM fans are nodding their head in emphatic support of this concept now - then it doesn't seem like a leap to assume that the Wolverine offense will be even more potent this time around. When you factor in the bounce that comes in the second year of the RichRod system, the Irish defense could have its hands full. If the Irish don't tackle or take poor angles, there will be many chances for Michigan running backs to replicate Sam McGuffie's offensive outbursts last year.

But what about advantages for the Irish? Considering the talented speed that resides at the top of the defensive depth chart, I think this year's team is considerably more suited to deal with Rodriguez's spread and shred than last year's. Considering they used three wide receivers the majority of the time in the opener, Notre Dame has the ability to go nickel or dime and counter with Teo, Filer, Fleming, Brown and/or Walls, cutting off running lanes and chasing down quarterbacks when they escape the pocket. Nevada proved you could have success rushing at the interior of the Irish defensive line from the spread, but that should give Ethan Johnson, Ian Williams and the rest of a line a lot of lessons of what is coming at them. Simply put, I'm extremely comfortable if Notre Dame has to go nickel or dime, and would even prefer that versus the base 4-3.

Despite his great play in the opener, this is really Forcier's first start against a real defense (only limited disrespect to Western Michigan intended here, but they were returning 3 starters from a rather mediocre unit last year). Even though he'll be at home, Tate (or Denard Robinson, and hopefully Nick Sheridan) is going to have to deal with Tenuta blitzes nearly every play, which is something I don't think he saw in high school or in the spring scrimmage. While an experienced quarterback like White (only a sophomore at the time, but with almost a season and a half in the system under his belt) was able to take advantage of Georgia Tech, I would be surprised if Forcier was able to find running lanes, locate his hot routes and audible at the line with the same effectiveness. I could very well be wrong, but in the match-up of a freshman quarterback versus Jon Tenuta's defense, I'll take Tenuta until the freshmen prove otherwise. Colin Kaepernick - a very, very good dual-threat QB - looked completely out of sorts Saturday, and some of that has to be chalked up to the gentlemen in blue sprinting at him every play. The Irish needed some luck to get the shutout, but they still did a solid job containing one of the more potent offenses in the country.

For the Notre Dame offense, it really just comes down to providing protection for Clausen, as I don't see a way the Michigan secondary can contain the combination of Tate, Floyd, Rudolph and whoever ends up in the slot. From MGo a bit earlier in the week:

What happens when Notre Dame goes to three-wide?

Nothing. Michigan spent the entire day its base set and has no corner depth. They do have guys on the edge who can cover Robby "That's Racist" Parris or whoever; it's not like Notre Dame's backup WRs are speed demons.

Despite the fact I have no idea who would end up in the slot in that situation (a healthy Kamara could bump Tate there, Parris, Evans), I love the idea of Michigan just staying in their base defense. When Notre Dame had success against the Wolverines on offense in the Quinn/Weis years, it came almost exclusively from spreading the defense out and taking whatever was there (the opening drive in the 2005 game, the last drive of the first half in the 2006 game). If Michigan's defensive plan revolves around Stevie Brown trying to check Shaq Evans or Robbie Parris for four quarters, the Irish should score points in droves, unless....

Yes, of course, none of that matters unless the Irish can keep Graham and his friends from mauling Jimmy all day. Last year the line was successful in keeping Jimmy intact, but the early deficit and wet conditions in the second half meant that there wasn't a lot of drop-back passing late. Football almost always comes down to line play, and this game will be no different. It becomes even more important because Michigan's secondary doesn't have the depth or size to deal with the Irish skill positions (Rudolph has at least six inches on any safety he might encounter downfield), so again, please block those large gentlemen up front and let the cards fall where they may.

Considering how Notre Dame vs. Michigan was relegated to a dark match the last few years, it's nice to see it back at the top of the card after the two non-embarrassing opening weekend performances. This game is always big to both programs, but when you consider the light schedule tomorrow, a lot of people will be taking a lengthy look at both teams. It would be nice if the Irish could silence a few more critics, but just like everything else this season, they're going to have to earn it.

We knew we'd learn a lot about this year's team after the opening trio of games, but I feel like this trip to Ann Arbor looms particularly large. A win? It would give both Weis and Clausen a winning record against Michigan, and let the Irish program take another step in the correct direction, all while causing a great deal of pain for one of the Irish's most hated rivals. A loss? One more year of ridicule, sadness and a bunch of questions going into Michigan State. Personally, I'd prefer the former, and I'm not sure my heart could take the latter.

Unit by Unit: Breaking Down Michigan Football's Offense Following Its Win Over Western Michigan

Maize n Brew Dave — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 18:47:35 -0000

A new weekly post game feature here at Maize n Brew will be what we like to Unit by Unit. We'll take a hard look at the players and the coaches for each particular unit on the team, and bring them in for a pat on the back or a wag of the finger. After we've looked at each position, we'll give you a final wrap on the team's play on Offense and Defense (Special Teams too!). If you're looking for more detail, game bullets are here, the wrap up is here, the boxscore is here, and the general AP recap is here. There are the links, so now let's get to the nitty gritty.

The Offensive Line

The Offensive Play in a Photo, Tate untouched. Awesome Photo via John T. Greilick

The Offensive Line always goes first, good or bad, because they're going to determine how this season pans out. Frankly, the line was excellent. In particular I thought Mark Ortmann played outstanding football. Say what you will about it being "just Western Michigan," but Michigan lost at home to 3-9 Toledo last year and the line got pushed around by a bad Toledo defense. This year it was an entirely different story. I thought the ends actually outplayed the middle of the line. David Molk had a good, but not great game and missed a few blocks. On the other hand, David Moosman and Steve Schilling played fairly well. On the right side, Mark Huyge was excellent. IIRC, he simply dominated the Western DEs on Saturday, much like Ortmann. They didn't give up a sack. Michigan averaged 4.8 yards a carry. The boys on the line deserve a game ball a piece.

Overall, Michigan was outstanding up front. They controlled the line of scrimmage, buying time for Tate Forcier, Denard Robinson, and Nick Sheridan to throw without pressure and lanes for the quarterbacks and running backs to run through. Protection outside the pocket was excellent too, as the lineman set up their blocks very well. Carlos Brown averaged 5.4 yards a carry for 54 yards and Michael Shaw racked up 37 yards for a 4.9 a carry average. Not bad for a run offense that couldn't get past two yards a carry for its first four games. What was also impressive was the fact that Michigan was able to play it's second string in the second half. Elliot Mealer, Perrry Dorrestein, Rocko Khoury, Patrick Omameh, and Justin Ferrara all saw playing time. That's going to pay dividends down the line should anyone get injured.

(More awesomeness after the jump....)

The Running Backs

Awesome Photo via John T. Greilick

Judging the Running Backs on a day like Saturday is a little difficult. While they played a crucial role in balancing the offense, there was nothing spectacular to hang your hat on. Carlos Brown was good on the ground. 5.4 a carry is nothing to sneeze at. Brown also deserves a little praise for his pass catching out of the backfield, which I thought was a great addition to his overall game. He does deserve a little fisking, however, for meekly putting the ball on the turf at the start of the second half. That was not a play where the ball should've come out. But Carlos gets some serious props for his pass blocking. Watching him flip a DE was one of the highlights of my day.

I would've liked to have seen a little more of Michael Shaw. Shaw did get seven carries and looked fairly good, but I don't think he or Brown really ever got in a rhythm. I'd say it may have been better to go a little more two back on Saturday, but I think Rodriguez started hiding cards after he saw the game was in the bag. It was nice to see Kevin Grady and Vincent Smith get some carries. Grady, hopefully, will be a good backup this season and I'm really pulling for him personally. Smith had some happy feet, but he's a freshman in his first game, in mop up time. 6 carries and 23 yards isn't too bad. Overall a good, workman like day for Michigan's ball carriers.

The Receivers

Junior Hemingway, Kevin Koger, Kelvin Grady, Marativous Odoms, and Greg Mathews were absolutely outstanding. Route running. Improvisation. Blocking. Everything. Hemingway just stole the show. It's been more than a year since a receiver caught more than one touchdown pass in a game (Adrian Arrington - Citrus Bowl). I think it's fair to say the Hemingway came close to matching Arrington's performance on New Year's day 2008. Reeling in five catches for 103 yards and two TDs, Hemingway was solid in every aspect of the game. He ran the short routes. Caught in traffic. Worked with his quarterback. And he just flew past the WMU secondary for his second score. Hemingway gave us a glimpse of his talent on Saturday, so all we can hope is that he stays healthy and keeps reminding us of another #21.

Awesome Photo via John T. Greilick

From New Math to Old School. That's how we're rolling. And that's how the new 86 rolls. Kevin Koger also flashed a large amount of his considerable talent on Saturday notching a TD, three catches and a highlight reel one hander he'll be talking about for the next month. If there was one pass that Forcier threw to Tacopants, it was Koger's one-handed catch. Making his cross, Koger leaped and stretched out his right hand for a catch he had no business making. Yet, he did, cradled it into his body as he hit the turf, and popped out of his barrel roll like nothing special had happened. Anyone still have questions about how Rodriguez uses his tight ends?

Then there were the slot receivers. Though Odoms got the start, Grady got his number called the most. In his first football game in three years, Kelvin pulled in two catches for 13 yards and took an end around for 11. While the numbers aren't crazy, he looked natural out there. Frankly, I was in shock that he was able to haul in Denard Robinson’s first throw, which appeared to be going close to the speed of sound. Grady’s got great hands, and combined with what appeared to be some tremendous wheels, it was like the passage of time meant nothing. Kelvin's really going to help us this year. Odoms didn't see a lot of balls thrown his way, but made his presence felt in other ways. On Denard Robinson's TD scamper, the tiny slot receiver was slated to take an end around, but once he realized the play was broken immediately found someone to block. Watch Odoms come from nowhere and block the closest man to Robinson after the first guy misses. I may not have been sold on Odoms before Saturday, but that play sold me. He never took his foot off the gas when the play went haywire and made the crucial block to spring his quarterback (@ 0:37 below). Maratavious, when you're old enough and the NCAA allows it, the first beverage is on me

Also making appearances were Greg Mathews and LaTerral Savoy. Mathews was fairly quiet, notching only two catches, but was extremely effective after the catch. If Hemingway can become the deep threat, I think Mathews is going to have an outstanding season as our possession receiver. Savoy tallied a catch early, but was a not so innocent bystander to Nick Sheridan's interception.

Overall, this was the best regular season game out of Michigan's receiving corps since the 2006 Ohio State game.

The Quarterback(s)

Tate Forcier is your starter from here out. No question about this. While Robinson’s run was amazing, it was off of a broken play. He just improvised that whole thing with the aid of some great blocking. Tate looks light years more polished and in control. His pass to Hemingway for the opening score was something you don’t see out of freshmen. Frankly it’s something you don’t see out of a lot of seniors. When he rolled left, he clearly knew where the LOS was, got the corner to bite on the scramble, and lofted a damn near perfect pass the Hemingway who read his quarterback like a book. That was as good as it gets.

You really couldn’t ask for a better start to a college career. Forcier went 13-20 for 177 yards, 3 TDs and no picks. Notsobad, eh? Tate’s arm was excellent in all aspects of the passing game. The deep ball to Hemingway was Henne-esque. But what what most impressive was his ability to throw on the run, with accuracy and steam. Michigan moved Forcier out of the pocket numerous times, and 95% of those instances resulted in positive throws. If there’s room for improvement, I will say that there were a few moments where his ball protection was less than ideal and he danced around too much. He’s not going to have the same type of time against Notre Dame, and he’s certainly not going to be able to evade the Irish the way he did the Broncos. Just ask Colin Kaepernick. Forcier gunned a few passes in the second half and got a little outside of the offense, but I’m willing to be forgiving because most of that happened when Michigan was up 31 points. All things considered, that game was as good as I’ve ever seen out of a freshman, especially when you considered the youth around him.

Denard Robinson’s feet were just as good as advertised. His arm was as "live" as advertised. However, he’s not the level of passer that we were hoping to see. Robinson attempted only four passes on the day compared to 11 rushing attempts. The reason for this is obvious. He’s a much better runner at this stage than he is a passer. While Denard showed a live arm and can throw decently on the run, he doesn’t look as comfortable pulling the ball back to look downfield. You could tell he’s still a scramble first player who takes off when his first or second read isn’t there. Frankly, with only a month under his belt, I’d be surprised if he’s getting past his second read. The long and short of it is that Robinson doesn't know the system or himself well enough to hang in there and let the play develop. But that will come and it really doesn’t matter right now, does it? The kid is blazingly fast. He’s going to be an excellent change of pace in the Notre Dame game, but he’s no where near being a starting quarterback based on what we saw from his arm and reads. The keys for him moving forward will be playing a bit more under control, and rolling him out of the pocket to allow him to use his legs and allow him to throw or tuck it under without large men in his face. All in all, a great and electric start for Robinson.

Nick Sheridan looked like a new person and the same guy all at once. Sheridan is noticeably bigger and stronger. He moves better than last year. He’s definitely got a great grasp of the system. But he’s still not a D1 quarterback. Sure a penalty wiped out a near TD, but a veteran doesn’t force a throw into tight coverage. Especially a throw that far inside. Nick’s a nice insurance policy to have, but he and Robinson appear to be about equal in the passing game (Nick more experienced/Denard much better arm) so I’ve gotta go with Robinson’s legs. As I said in my QB preview, if Sheridan’s on the field for any extended period of time, we’re in trouble.

The Offense Overall

Sure you can nitpick and find things to complain about, but the bottom line is at no point last year did our offense look this good. Penn State? Nope. One trick pony. Purdue? Not so much. Bad tackling let that happen. No. This was a complete offense on the field. If you can't be excited about this then I've got nothing for you.

On a micro level, the Offense performed much, much better with Forcier under center than either Robinson or Sheridan. He's just a better passer right now and frankly he's got pretty good wheels. I don't think he'll have nearly as much time against Notre Dame's defense as he did against Western, but his ability to scramble will force the Linebackers to play a little further off the LOS.

Macro, the play of Michigan's wideouts was incredibly encouraging. If Junior Hemingway can stay healthy, Michigan has a legitimate No. 1 receiver. The emergence of Kelvin Grady as a threat will also start to take some of the pressure off of Mathews and Odoms, both of whom had good games.

It was clear that Michigan had a game plan for Western and they executed it to a tee. I'm looking forward to seeing more of that as the Wolverines take on an excellent Notre Dame squad.

Pre-Game Notes, Game #1 - Western Michigan at Michigan

Maize n Brew Dave — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 16:22:13 -0000

Game #1: Western Michigan at Michigan

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m., Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.

TV/radio: ABC (Channel 7 in Detroit); WOMC-FM (104.3), CKLW-AM (800), WTKA-AM (1050).

Things of Note

Tate Forcier will start. Denard Robinson and Nick Sheridan will see time under center as well
Brandon Minor is questionable for today's game with an unknown injury that had him limping around practice.
The Free Press still sucks.
The Maize n Brew Open thread will open at 3pm EST.
Go Blue!

2009 Michigan Football Season Preview, Part IV: The Receivers

Maize n Brew Dave — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:39:47 -0000

Part I: The Offensive Line, can be found here. Part II: The Running Backs, can be found here. Part III: The Quarterback Position, can be found here.

One day till the 2009 Michigan Football season kicks off. If you're not bursting from the seams with excitement you should probably see a doctor. Or a mortician. It's almost kickoff time, baby. We'll get to the Western Michigan preview in good time. But for right now, we need to figure out what we've got on our side of the football. Now if you can't wait until the season starts to know how it's going to turn out, we got you covered there as well. Here are Beauford's, MnB Dave's, and SCM's 2009 Michigan Football season predictions. There's your quick fix if you need a baseline.

But this is the time of year when we break it all down. Position by position. So we're splitting things up in to a couple of separate posts to give you all the information you can handle on what to expect out of Michigan this season. The Depth Chart is out, so we'll break it down. Since we know what to expect out of the Offensive Line, Running Backs (mostly, now that Brandon Minor is out with a plethora of injuries), and Quarterback (Tate Forcier will start), we're left with one group to discuss.

2009 Michigan Football Season Preview, Part IV: The Receivers

via www.michigandaily.com

If you're looking to talk about Michigan's receivers last year, it's going to be hard to find a lot of things to discuss. A year after fielding arguably the best set of receivers on the field Michigan has ever had, the Wolverine's fielded arguably their worst group ever. There was almost no production from the receivers last year. Bad quarterback play, new system, loads of injuries, loads of freshmen, and the drops, oh god, the drops. This was not a good unit by any standard and it got worse when the inadequacy at quarterback became so apparent that if you found a safety deep it was because he'd fallen asleep on the previous play. How Michigan amassed 11 touchdowns through the air is a complete mystery to me. There was the Utah touchdown bomb to Hemingway. Threet's over the middle lob to Koger against Wisconsin. Mathew's circus catch against Illinois, and Minor's "god that was cool but that was in no way a real touchdown grab." There are your highlights.

Negativity aside, it's not like this isn't a talented group. It's an insanely talented group. And it was yooooooung last year. Really young. Time to strike of the meme of the off-season: "It's year two, they're older, more experienced. They're gonna RAWK!" Well, they've certainly got the opportunity this year with a new QB who can throw on the run and a line that'll give said new QB some time to throw. If all goes well, this team should double it's production from last year.

The Line-up

The unquestioned leader, guru, and best receiver at Michigan is Senior Greg Mathews. Mathews isn't a burner. Mathews isn't that tall (but compared to Odoms he's a giant). But he's got hands, hands, hands, brains, and outstanding body control. No one on this offense knows the system better than Mathews does. When I interviewed his roommate, Stevie Brown, he told me that everyone on the offense young and old was calling him on assignments, routes and blocks. Mathews is everything you want in a receiver, with the unfortunate exception of speed. Greg's awesome, he's just not fast. There have been numerous comparisons to Jason Avant. I wish I said I could agree, but I don't. Avant was out of this world talented as a receiver, who could make the circus catch look easy. Just because Mathews isn't that fast doesn't make them apt analogies. I'm still waiting for that big game out of Mathews. The reason he hasn't had it is through no fault of his own, but until I see him change a game the way Avant did, I'm still pegging him as best suited to be a number two-three type guy who is being counted on to be a number one receiver. I think Mathews should hit fifty-five catches this season, doubling his yardage, while reaching four or five touchdowns.

On the opposite side of the formation will be Junior Hemingway. You remember him as the "OMG! Did he Desmond that catch!1?!1!!" receiver against Utah who promptly injured everything in his body and caught a case of Mono that I hope came from a really hot girl because it cost him the 2008 season. Hey. That's the risk in college. If she's hot, you can say "Yeah, but you would've" to anyone giving you crap. If fugly? Dude. If that's the case, the penalty suits the crime. Anyway... Hemingway's shown flashes of being the sickeningly awesome deep threat that Michigan so desperately needs. He's a decent route runner, but seems to excel getting off the line and into a race with an airborne football. Personally, I'm really excited about this kid. He's got that extra gear the way Manningham did. Use a stop watch? meh. Let him run in pads? Hellz yeah. That said, it's really hard to project how he's going to perform after missing so much time and having seen so little of him. Honestly, if he chips in 400 yards and pulls in five touchdowns, I'd be pretty happy. But he's certainly got the potential to do a lot more.

More on the receiving corps after the jump...

Moving inside we get to ~~midget~~ slot receiver and tight end. Michigan's leading receiver last year was slot receiver, Martavious Odoms, with 49 catches and 443 yards. Unfortunately, Odoms didn't find the endzone until the Purdue game - and that was on a punt return. Odoms performance elicited strong reactions from just about everyone who watched him. He is obviously an extremely talented football player. He just has problems holding onto the ball. A lot of problems holding onto the ball. As a receiver, I was never particularly taken with the offense's use of Odoms as a primary receiver. He's just too small. Linebackers and safeties engulfed him when he caught the football in the middle of the field. But when he had the ball glued to his hands, he was a lot of fun to watch. Odoms' strengths appear to be those specifically suited to a slot guy. He's good in the short passing game. He's too fast for a Linebacker in one-on-one coverage. He can flare out for a screen. But he wasn't particularly good gauging the ball in the air on the deep throw. I'm willing to attribute a lot of that to a total lack of chemistry with either Steven Threet or Nick Sheridan. There are a pile of talented slot receivers behind him, so Odoms should have a great year. He'll have to in order to keep his job.

At Tight End, star of the Wisconsin game, sophomore Kevin Koger will start. At 6'4" 250, Koger another prototypical tight end in a system that's not so tight end friendly. Howeva, Koger has wheels. Really good ones for a big man. As a result Rodriguez is going to find a way to get him the ball more often. As an added bonus, his being above 6 feet tall should help Tate/Denard see him when they get in trouble. Koger only caught 6 passes last year, so it's tough to gauge him as well. But when you consider he was a four star recruit with a good offer sheet, you can expect good things from him, especially when you consider he seems to be putting the work to be a better player. Maybe 20 catches this year a 2 or 3 TDs.

The Back-ups

On the outside, Michigan has sophomore Darryl Stonum and freshman Je'Ron Stokes waiting to be unleashed. Of the two, Stonum is the more polished guy simply because he's got a year on the freshman. Stonum's another guy with that extra gear in pads that makes football nerds all tingly. Both Stevie Brown and Mark Ortmann praised the work Stonum put in over the winter and spring, and indicated that Stonum was starting to come into his own. Unfortunately, Stonum reported had a bout of the dropsies and hasn't quite done enough to hit the field as a starter yet. Like Stonum, Stokes is another high four star receiver who is in need of some polishing. At this point I don't have a lot to go on with Stokes other than his recruiting hype. That said, I have to imagine we'll see more of him as a freshman than we're going to see of LaTerryal Savoy or James Rogers.

Savoy and Rogers are upperclassmen who simply haven't panned out. Savoy pulled in a sprig practice touchdown, but that probably sums up his career as a Wolverine. Practice game hero. Savoy does have some game experience and has hauled in a few catches, but he's not a viable receiver in this offense, or at least he's never shown himself to be one. Savoy will see some time by virtue of being a senior with more experience in the system, but if he's in the game late, either he's turned into an incredible receiver over night, or we're screwed. For Rogers, replace "Savoy" with "Rogers" in the preceding four sentences.

At slot, Michigan's cup runneth over with small, darty, fast dudes. The first option on that list is currently former Michigan Basketball Point Guard, Kelvin Grady. At 5'10", Grady is easily the tallest of the slot receivers and frankly probably one of the best. Grady killed his football recruting hype by publicly declaring he wanted to play basketball exclusively before his junior year. The football services therein turned off. It's a shame too. Grady had some "dear holy god" type runs for East Grand Rapids as a junior and senior. He generated plenty of practice buzz by making some sick catches and showing everyone that three years away from football, all while playing D1 basketball, has positive effects on the body. Think about it. Three years without getting the crap knocked out of you but still running, cutting, getting banged around some, and drilling your body into peak physical shape without a 317 lbs dude diving at your spine and/or knees. So Grady walks onto the field healthy, with excellent peripheral vision, and faster than he would've been as a freshman. Not bad. I don't think Grady will over take Odoms for the starting slot, but the fact we can discuss it tells you just how talented a football player Grady is after a month of practice. Grady's probably the best story I've heard of, football wise, in a long time. So naturally, I'm really pulling for him to succeed. Why else would I devote more space to him than a couple of the starters?

Immediately after Grady, if not before, is Roy Roundtree. A slot receiver who is curiously between six feet and six-three, and just learning how to see. Apparently, Roundtree's eyesight was horrid and he was somehow making catches without being able to really see the ball clearly. How the hell does that happen? Now he's got contacts and is, according to Stevie Brown, was of the fastest, quickest players on the team. At 6'3" with speed and quickness I've gotta imagine he'll eventually get split out wide, but he's listed at slot so that's where we'll keep him. Behind Roundtree is Terrance Robinson. Robinson was a mid-high recruit whose size limited his recruitment. There's been little buzz about him at camp. He's there, he's had a year in the system, but until he starts catching the ball consistently enough to find his way onto the playing field, I really don't know what to tell you about him.

Finally, at the Tight End position, Martell Webb will back up Kevin Koger. Webb had a good freshman season but didn't see much time last year. Like Koger, Webb was a highly rated recruit who may have had a little too much culture shock from Barwis/Rodriguez arrival. As a result, he saw Koger take the starting job from him. This year, Webb had a fairly good camp and should be able to step in immediately without any drop off in production at the TE position.

The Take Away

Though it might not sound like it from the snarky comments above, I do like this group. I'm just not in love with it. There isn't the presence of a bona-fide No.1 receiver right now. Our lead pass catcher is a slot guy I can fit in my pocket and our best deep threat is a sneeze away from injuring himself again. But there is a lot of speed on the outside. Michigan does have a guaranteed catch in Mathews. And there's actually going to be a quarterback who can throw the ball to them this year.

A lot of the negatives I saw last year can probably be attributed to the horrid play under center, but there is plenty of room for improvement here. Most critically, holding onto the ball. Drops were an issue last year just as much as fumbles were. I think a year of practice will help that, but i also think a year of playing will ease a lot of other maladies as well. No more stopping just short of the first down marker on a pattern. No more juking around and losing six yards instead of falling forward and gaining two. Youth and inexperience are usually cured by the passage time.

Well, it's a year later, so we'll find out shortly. I figure this group should be good for 14-16 touchdowns and just under 2,000 yards receiving. That's a pretty optimistic view. If they crack 1,700 yards and 12-14 touchdowns, I'd still be fairly happy.

2009 Michigan Football Season Preview, Part III: The Quarterback Position

Maize n Brew Dave — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:38:14 -0000

Part I: The Offensive Line, can be found here. Part II: The Running Backs, can be found here.

Three days till the 2009 Michigan Football season kicks off. If you're not bursting from the seams with excitement you should probably see a doctor. Or a mortician. It's almost kickoff time, baby. We'll get to the Western Michigan preview in good time. But for right now, we need to figure out what we've got on our side of the football. Now if you can't wait until the season starts to know how it's going to turn out, we got you covered there as well. Here are Beauford's, MnB Dave's, and SCM's 2009 Michigan Football season predictions. There's your quick fix if you need a baseline.

But this is the time of year when we break it all down. Position by position. So we're splitting things up in to a couple of separate posts to give you all the information you can handle on what to expect out of Michigan this season. The Depth Chart is out, so we'll break it down. Since we know what to expect out of the Offensive Line, and Running Backs (mostly, now that Brandon Minor is out with a plethora of injuries), lets move on to a position with a lot of expectations, and talent, but not a lot of experience.

2009 Michigan Football Season Preview, Part III: The Quarterback Position

Michigan's 2008 Quarterback Play in a Single Picture. via Mlive.com

To say Michigan's quarterback play was rancid last season wouldn't do justice to the word "rancid". Rancid as compared to Michigan's quarterback play would make rancid seem like your were in a field of blooming roses and strawberries. I've honestly never seen two young kids so overmatched by what they assigned to carry out in my life. It was like handing a six year old a pile of metal and telling him to build a nuclear reactor. Almost. You'd have to have the six year old running for his life from 300 lbs men while trying to build said reactor for the analogy to be apt.

Rodriguez spent the entirety of last year trying to run his spread offense with two kids, while upstanding, nice young men, were totally and completely ill suited for the task. This didn't stop me from predicted they'd be fine, by the way. Especially Steven Threet. Sigh....

Steven Threet is a *4 QB (in both services) with an Elite 11 camp pedigree. He's a bright guy, with a cannon for an arm. Hell, Shaun King excelled in Rodriguez system so there's no reason Threet can't.

I didn't stop there:

However, Steven Threet or Nick Sheridan or Justin Feagin all ran the Spread in high school, so each of them has some knowledge of what the system entails and their better suited to run whatever version of the Spread Rodriguez installs than anyone who’s taken the snaps at Michigan for the last decade. So while the signal caller may not be Rodriguez prototypical player, whomever he names the starter will be more than capable for running the offense.

Oh God. Make it stop!

Obviously, there is peril in this. Reality loves nothing more than overblown expectations and denial. Hopes were made to be crushed, hearts made to be broken. Some might say such bravado is reminiscent of Icarus, overcome by his dreams and thoughts to the extent he failed to heed to the reality of the warming Sun....

I say if Icarus used a stronger glue, he'd still be flying.

/tears, sobbing/

Alright... (sniff... sob....)... I'm back.

(2009 Michigan Quarterback Preview after the Jump!)

I was horribly, horribly wrong about Threet's abilities. I was even more wrong about Sheridan's, if that's possible. I thought Nick could run. No. No, he can't. He runs like wood. You (desk bound, flabby you) have a better chance of escaping from a hungry bear than Sheridan had escaping the rush or getting to the line of scrimmage on a QB keeper. The numbers were horrific. Last year Michigan quarterbacks combined to go an abysmal 165/338 for 1718 yards, 11TD/12INT and a miserable combined QB rating of 95.2.

Sheridan	Passing
YEAR	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YPA	LNG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
2008	63	137	613	46.0	4.47	45	2	5	6	81.08

Threet	Passing
YEAR	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YPA	LNG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
2008	102	200	1105	51.0	5.53	51	9	7	15	105.26

So, yes. It was as bad as you remember. Now maybe you're better at repressing memories than I am and have convinced yourself you were at Disney World all last season, but I can't get over how bad it really was. My Domer wife asking me, "Are these two bozos really your best options at quarterback?" My responding "yes" followed by her laughing at me and pointing to every barn we passed on the way back from South Bend and asking whether Threet or Sheridan could hit the side of it. Gentlemen. You have earned a place in my personal hell for that car ride. Well, Steven Threet is gone, transferring (again) to Arizona State. Justin Feagin is gone to who knows where, but sadly and most likely, on his way to jail. That leaves us with two freshman. A senior backup with mad flow. And Sheridan.

/tears welling in eyes... looking down... grabbing podium..../

Too soon for that joke? Anyway, hope springs eternal. So now that we've had our hearts ripped out it's time to rebuild. We can do it. We have the technology.

Starter(s)

Yes. That is plural. As of today, Rich Rodriguez still maintains that we're going to see all three quarterbacks against Western Michigan. He just hasn't said how much of each and how often he's going to make a switch. The three options are Senior Nick Sheridan, and True Freshmen Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson. You know about Sheridan. If not. Don't ask. Dammit. I told you not to ask. Fine.

Yes, that did just happen. via Mlive.com

Sheridan was and is a non-rated recruit out of high school who blew his knee out his senior year. As a result, any recruiting buzz disappeared and Sheridan walked-on to Lloyd Carr's program. It wasn't until everyone and their mother pulled up stakes following Lloyd's departure and Michigan was left with two scholarship QBs (Threet and David Cone), that Sheridan was brought out of the practice squad pads and put in as a scholarship QB. The result of which is captioned above. I will say that Sheridan looks very, very different this year. He A LOT stronger. His passes in practice have more zip. He seems confident. Not like the lost little puppy we saw last year. But he's still Nick Sheridan. As Rodriguez says, he's the "safe" starter. And if by "safe" you mean "not a freshman" or "player most likely to fan the fan base scream at throw things if he's under center." Sorry folks. He's a good kid. But unless he's undergone surgery and had Tom Brady surgically placed under his skin, I just can't see him as a legitimate D1 quarterback. But I'd love to be wrong on that.

via imageshack.us

The player with the second most experience (that will actually play) is Tate Forcier. Forcier was in for Spring Practice and started the Spring Game. Anyone who's followed the site or Michigan football knows all about the show he put on. I've covered Forcier in depth before, so I'll try not to rehash it too much. Forcier comes from a family of quarterbacks. His oldest brother Jason played at Michigan and Stanford. His younger-older brother was at UCLA before transferring, not so subtly. Tate, well, he's the culmination of all that breeding and labwork in the Forcier family labs. And, dammit, he showed it as a starter in High School. Last year Forcier's numbers are a shiny beacon of hope for this year. 208/326 for 3424 yards, 23/15 TD/INT ratio, 783 yards rushing on 92 attempts, and 12 rushing TDs.

Forcier is a solid, young QB. He throws an excellent deep ball. He's got great scrambling ability and actually possesses a "feel" for the pocket. He's a good improviser. He throws really well on the run (a staple of the Rodriguez system). He's a natural leader. Several TV commentators have said, he has "it" when they talk about his presence. A certain j'ne sais quoi, that makes him seem like the quarterback of the future at Michigan. Tate's been in the weight room all summer with Barwis. He's learned the playbook. He's been throwing and running just like what Rodriguez would want. He played every snap with the Spring #1 offense! With all this hype why isn't he the unquestioned starter?

Because of this guy.

via Detroit News

Denard Robinson: Lightning bolt. Hands down the fastest player on Michigan's roster. There was talk about a show down between Troy Woolfolk and Robinson for fastest player on the team, but that talk seems to have died down when Robinson started busting off touchdown runs of 58, 68 and 72 yards in practice. My man's got speed. You can't teach speed. You're just blessed with it. The knock on Robinson, or at least the expectation was that he couldn't throw particularly well. His high school passing numbers were really suspect and his rushing number completely overshadowed anything he did throwing the ball. Come on. The kid ran a 100 meter race in 10.3 seconds. How can you not be excited about this and completely ignore his ability to throw the ball? Woo!

Well, it turns out the kid can throw the ball. Pretty well actually. During the close of practice a week or two ago he hit Mathews in stride for a 40+ touchdown pass. Reports out of camp say he's got the short passing game down pat and is advancing on the intermediate stuff quite nicely. He apparently throws well on the run. And he's only been practicing for real, for less than a month! Gerry DiNardo on the Big Ten Network put it best, (paraphrasing) "the fact that we're discussing whether Forcier or Robinson should start, especially when Forcier's been there longer, should tell you something."

Yeah, something wonderful. Michigan's got two kids who can and should start. While MGoBlog believes Tate Forcier is going to end up your eventual starting QB, I'm not so sure anymore. While going into camp I really believed that Forcier would grab hold of the starting job, a lot of that was based on my prior belief that Robinson was a non-arm. What's readily apparent is that by working with Coach Rod Smith, Robinson's really progressed quite nicely. And Robinson has something that Forcier doesn't have as much of, speed and elusiveness. Robinson is as close to Pat White as we've got right now. Quirky developing throwing mechanics, but space warping speed that actually sees him gain a ton and a half as he approaches light speed. That's right. I just dropped science on your ass.

Projections

Honestly, you can't go wrong with either Forcier or Robinson at this point. They're still freshmen. They're still learning. They're both going to make horrid mistakes. But they're also going to get better. My money has Forcier starting the Western game and being the better passer. Robinson rips off some huge runs against the depleted Broncos Defense and nothing is solved. What it'll come down to is Tate and Denard battling it out against Notre Dame. Against the Tenuta Blitz, I'm betting Robinson's elusiveness wins him the second half start against ND. You've got to be able to make the first guy miss in this offense. Based on what I've heard, Robinson's just a little better at that than Tate, and when they miss it's all over.

This is a good problem to have, people. After last year's lying to myself about the position and trying to ignore just how bad it was going to be, I'm not filled with the same dread. These two are light years ahead of where Michigan was at the end of last year. They have a decent returning line, lots of talent in the backfield, and a couple of players to throw to. Either one of these kids, by themselves, would be our opening day starter by a mile. Because they're both here, we get the benefit of their best every day in practice because they both want to start.

My prediction must be caveated on the assumption that Robinson can throw. What I've seem on video and the stuff I've gotten through sources says he can. But if Robinson's arm isn't as reputed, then it's Forcier all the way. Howeva, if Robinson can throw, I think Tate starts against Western Michigan but that it's the Denard Robinson show from thereon with Tate playing consistently as the second guy in the rest of the season. We'll see. But either way, it'll be better than last year. My guess? Combined the two go for 2,300 passing yards, 700 rushing yards, 15/9 TD/INT, 6 Rushing TDs. It's optimistic but reasonable at the same time. maybe the passing yards are lower. Maybe there are more rushing yards. But we're back to being excited about the quarterback position.

Bucknotes feels it in the water, feels it in the earth, smells it in the air.

Sam @ WWAHT — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 14:00:19 -0000

by Terry Gilliam - AP

The End has come.

View full size photo »

Wells playing way into starter talks
Cards fans want it, and Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt may be coming over to that train of thought as well. If he's healthy, I'd say they can count on him for at least 1,000 yards on the ground this season.

Ohio State toying with the 3-4?
Who's the nose tackle? 6'7" Doug Worthington? The 3-4 defense needs a dominant NT to be successful - Ted Washington, Shaun Rogers, and Terrance Cody and scant few others are good 3-4 NT, and Ohio State has nobody like those guys in terms of body shape or ability. It could work in bits and pieces - and it's sounding like that's what Heacock is thinking - but we simply won't be able to run it with any consistency. Just don't have the personnel.

Report: Michigan Wolverines coach Rich Rodriguez tied to banned booster - ESPN
I don't even to know what to think of this, other than that unlike practicegate, this actually seems to have a bit of, I dunno, legitimacy to it:

According to documents provided Wednesday by the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division, Green is accused of pilfering thousands of dollars from Palmetto State Enterprises LLC between 2005 and 2007 to pay debts on various business deals, buy furniture and have cosmetic surgery. Greene had set up the corporation several years earlier, using it to help fund several condominium developments -- including one involving Rodriguez, a former coach at Clemson. Bank documents list Greene, 71, as one of Rodriguez's co-investors on The Legends of Blacksburg, an 80-unit project overlooking Virginia Tech's Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va.

The water around Rodriguez must be scalding him by now. With practicegate, I generally bought into the theory of "win, and this all goes away". That might not be the case with this, as it isn't media or fans after RichRod, it's a frickin' bank.

Jim Tressel: Offensive Line Looking Crisp
Pulling together and soldier forth just in time?

Coach Tressel discussed limiting the number of plays for the line as a way to get them more comfortable this fall. "So we had narrowed down a little bit of what we might do." he said. "And I thought yesterday in full pads, it wasn’t like it was shorts or anything, in full pads, our offensive line looked a little bit crisper and quicker and more confident in what they were doing than I had seen them in the last week or so." he told everyone about the play of the line.

No 6 Ohio State v Navy | BucksInsider.com - Ohio State Buckeyes News, Videos, Schedules & More
Preview preview preview.

Taurian Washington shooting up the depth chart (Blogging the Buckeyes)
Gordon, paraphrasing Darrell Hazell:

Raved about [Taurian] Washington's camp. Said he's shown everything he has not shown in the first two years of his career. Still must see it on the field, but it sounds like Washington is a late-blooming success story.

New early frontrunner for the Bammie?

Argh: Minor Questionable Saturday | mgoblog
Brandon Minor out for the Michigan's game against Western. Michigan is actually relatively deep at RB, so this isn't a death knell. Still, I couldn't help but notice how the Michigan running game improved so dramatically (outside of the MSU game) following Minor's insertion into the Penn State game. The passing game is clearly still a question mark with freshman quarterbacks plus Nick Sheridan, so is a loss to Western Michigan still such a remote possibility?

Final Takes: Striking while USC's forcefields are down - Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports
DocSat speaks at great length about USC's temporary vulnerability, still doesn't rule out the possibility of a Trojan romp in Columbus.

Offensive Strategy To Confuse Defenses? | Eleven Warriors
Keith at 11W analyzes some of Tressel's unique offensive nuances from the Troy Smith era; could they be seen again in the days of Pryor? I like some of the comparisons drawn between then and now.

BuckeyeXtra - The Columbus Dispatch : Where football comes in second
Oller fluff; read it because it's about the United States Naval Academy.

The Obligatory Predictions Competition

Law Buckeye — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 03:19:19 -0000

College football's smartest picks contest.

You might have heard, we at The Rivalry, Esq. are not above the sort of self-declared polity that comes with crowning ourselves psychic masters of the college football universe and certifying our predictions each week. Then again, you're not either.

It's back...The 2009 Obligatory Predictions Competition.

This is how we do it. Each week we select five interesting match-ups and predict the outcome. If you don't buy our "expert" opinions, or think you can do better -- enter your picks for all five games in the comments section of the article at least an hour before kickoff (EST) of the first match in question. At the end of the week we'll tally the score and declare a winner. The weekly winner gets to write 500 words on the site about anything college football.

But that's not all.

in 2009...

Season Scoreboard. This is no longer just a temporary thing. Each time you earn points, we'll carry them over to the next week in a season-long race to the top. (Sure, this means you'll probably want to try to play each round. But don't sweat it if you miss a few. We'll still crown weekly winners -- so you can defend your fanhood).

Here's how to run up the score:

One (1) point is earned for a correctly picking the winning team.

If you pick the winning team, earn an additional two (2) points for correctly identifying the winning spread by seven points or less.

If you pick the winning team, earn an additional two (2) points for picking a perfect spread (i.e. The PATERNOSGRANDDAUGHTER Bonus)

Two (2) bonus points are awarded for the "upset pick" -- an upset being defined as predicting: 1. Any AP/BCS Top 25 ranked team to defeat any opponent of higher rank, which in fact does occur, or 2. Any non-ranked AP/BCS Top 25 team to defeat any ranked opponent, which in fact does occur.

Without further adieu, here are our Week 1 Predictions:

1. No. 13 GEORGIA at No. 9 OKLAHOMA STATE, 3:30 p.m. EST (9/5), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts OKLAHOMA STATE by 10

You want me to pick OSU because of their returning weapons and the homefield advantage. You want me to pick OSU because Joe Cox throws an ugly ball and doesn’t have oodles of experience. You want me to pick OSU because no one else will and you think I’m an idiot to believe in a Big 12 team with no defense (is there any other kind of Big 12 team?). You win.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts OKLAHOMA STATE by 7

This is the hardest game of the week to predict, and we're not wasting any time by tackling it first. On one hand, Georgia is without perhaps their two most recognizable playmakers of the last decade (Stafford/Moreno). On the other, I have trouble shaking my belief that the Big 12 South is a one-dimensional mirage: high octane offenses propped up by abysmally poor defenses.

I think the Cowboys are the exception to the rule, and I think that because running back Kendall Hunter, wide receiver Dez Bryant, and quarterback Zac Robinson will score enough points to make up for a shaky defensive backfield. The Bulldogs will score too, behind one of the best offensive lines in the country and a stable of backs, but they won't be able to keep up on a pistol whip of a trip outside conference lines.

2. WESTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN, 3:30 p.m. EST (9/5), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN by 7

Oh boy. I envision Michigan struggling early on offense and watching in shock as Tim Hiller drives the Bronco’s down the field methodically for an early touchdown. I also envision the Bronco’s hurdling themselves at Forcier and praying he gets nicked early, if only to get Nick Sheridan on the field as fast as possible. Yes it’s true – Michigan’s 4 star defensive recruits should overwhelm Western in the Big House. But the Wolverines are facing tremendous pressure to win this game. Go Blue...

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MICHIGAN by 14

Two years in a row the Wolverines have tanked in their opener. Let's just say the third time will be a charm for an embattled Rich Rodriguez and a much-improved squad. I see a vaunted spread offense that clicks against a Bronco defense that returns just three starters and an unripe secondary. Meanwhile, Obi Ezeh and Brandon Graham -- stars under the tutelage of Greg Robinson -- will anchor a stronger, more consistent 3-4 defense.

Still, Michigan fans shouldn't breathe a sigh of relief. The true test for the Wolverines remains a week away when Charlie Weis comes to town.

3. MISSOURI v. ILLINOIS, 3:40 p.m. EST (9/5), ESPN

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts ILLINOIS by 10

For awhile, I’ve had a problem with that T-Pain/Jamie Foxx song "Blame It." I love it, but there’s one line that says Blame it on the Jews and I just felt that was inappropriate. That wonderful culture/people shouldn’t be blamed for your muddled one-night stands. Anyways, I’ve been informed that it’s actually a reference to the Illini’s struggles last year. Apparently T-Pain attended school in Champagne-Urbana and believes JUICE Williams was the cause of last year’s problems. Well Phil Steele and I both believe Williams and Co will improve this year. This turnaround starts against the Tigers from Mizzou. (Sorry Mary Schultz!)

LAW BUCKEYE predicts ILLINOIS by 10

Don't let the absence of rankings fool you. This St. Louis showdown is a huge game for Illinois and the conference. Mighty Mizzou has firebombed Ron Zook two years in a row. It's time for some revenge. Star Tigers linebacker Sean Witherspoon has promised to "squeeze the pulp out of Juice [Williams]." He might get a few good licks in, but this game belongs to the stronger, more disciplined Illini. Talented, but virgin quarterback Blaine Gabbert will struggle early to synchronize Gary Pinkel's signature offense. Arrelious Benn will eat Missouri's shoe-string secondary alive.

4. NORTHERN ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN 7:00 p.m. EST

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts WISCONSIN by 14

The Badgers, starting a non-Dustin Sherer quarterback and a non-John Clay running back, will lean on the Huskies until they fall over. Every year, there's a team that can't contain the Badgers rushing attack and ends up surrendering about 400 yards on the ground. This won’t quite be that game, but Bielema wins convincingly. Watch for Chandler Harnisch though – he’s the MAC’s Jake Locker, complete with Melrose Place sounding name. As I wrote here:

Huskies quarterback Chandler Harnish can run...and throw...and lead. He proved this in 2008 as A FRESHMAN. Is he the next Dan Lefevour or Tim Hiller, MAC quarterbacks sure to get NFL hype?

LAW BUCKEYE predicts WISCONSIN by 10

Bret Bielema doesn't want your pity, he wants your respect. Free from illusions of grandeur, this is a Wisconsin team that's ready to start anew. Although they'll face a respectable opponent in the Huskies, they'll grind a solid ground attack and tight end audibles to victory.

5. No. 5 ALABAMA v. No. 7 VIRGINIA TECH 8:00 p.m. EST, ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts ALABAMA by 7

This is the matchup of the week. Roll Tide Roll says:

Of course the easy answer -- and in all fairness, perhaps even the correct answer for 2009 -- is that we will try to replicate the basic strategy employed a year ago: physically dominate our opponents in the trenches in the running game, run it right down their throats, and only throw the football when and where we want to. But the problem with that is that there is no guarantee that the pre-requisites needed.

I have enough faith in that gigantic defense residing in Tuscaloosa to believe the Tide can triumph over a Darren Evans lacking VT team. Bama shows its power in ATL.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts ALABAMA by 7

Two weeks ago I would have said the opposite. But that was before star running back Darren Evans suffered a season-ending injury. The loss of Evans, and his 1,265 yards of production in 2008 will shackle the Hokies. Nick Saban and his ahead-of-schedule Crimson Tide will continue their track record of demonizing ACC favorites in season-openers. Just don't expect this game to look anything like last year's pulverizing of Clemson.

The Hokies deserve to be here, they just will fall a little short.

Previewin': Minnesota

Beauford — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 12:00:10 -0000

via www.cheeringfan.com

Maize n' Brew mercilessly drifts through another preview. This week is going to be a bit preview heavy as we lead into the season. Ladies and Gentlemen, the Minnesota Gophers

Previously: Illinois, Northwestern, Penn State, Iowa, Michigan State, Wisconsin

Explanation and indemnifications found: here

Last season was, no doubt, a great success for Tim [FIGHT PANTS WIN EXCEL] Brewster's Golden Gophers, going 7-6 with a bowl appearance against Kansas in the Insight Bowl. How much, I ask, of that season was smoke and mirrors? The Gophers started off hot, going 7-1 with the only loss a close-ish game at Ohio State. Then the wheels came off, and they lost the final 4 games of the Big Ten schedule, including the game in which Nick Sheridan looked like a Division 1 Quarterback.

The reason for this wild swing from winning to losing rests squarely on a turnover margin that was ranked, by the end of the season, at +12, 16th in the nation. What turnovers giveth, turnovers can taketh away, and it appears that any luck in that department last year was redistributed from Michigan to Minnesota. Minnesota's wins last season were mostly a result of timely turnovers, and not a sign of a really solid football team. This is evidenced by an offense than ranked 91st in the country in total yards, and a defense that ranked 80th in yards allowed. A bowl game this season for the Gophers might be possible, but only if they can get more production out of a balanced offense. Brewster knows this, and has been preaching "run to [TRIUMPH EXCELSIOR COFFEE FIGHT] win" this off-season. This becomes especially important as the Gophers ditch the Metrodome (finally) for their swanky new outdoor digs.

More Previewin' After The Jump

Schedule

9/05	@ Syracuse	12:00 PM
9/12	Air Force	7:00 PM
9/19	No. 12 California	12:00 PM
9/26	@ Northwestern	TBA
10/03	Wisconsin	TBA
10/10	Purdue	12:00 PM
10/17	@ No. 9 Penn State	3:30 PM
10/24	@ No. 6 Ohio State	12:00 PM
10/31	Michigan State	8:00 PM
11/07	Illinois	TBA
11/14	South Dakota State	TBA
11/21	@ No. 22 Iowa	TBA

Eric Decker being awesome

One thing the media will harp on that is off base

There are a lot of returning starters for the Gophers team, including the majority of the skill positions on offense, but I question whether that will really translate to wins. Adam Weber returns under center, but it's clear that the future of this Gopher offense rests with Freshman MarQueis Gray, who went 8 of 10 passing and scored two touchdowns. He's been relegated to mostly gadget plays in this offense, and has even lined up at WR a bit. Similarly, Troy Stoudemire had an impressive spring, and looks to be the biggest big-play threat. The Gophers also return the majority of their offesensive line.

However, this offense struggled last year, and often only scored by virtue of having a short field due to a turnover. There has to be some sort of spark for the unit if they want to compete for another bowl berth. Gray or Stoudemire might give them that spark, but that's only going to be on a few certain plays. The battery of Weber-Eskridge (RB)-Decker (WR) has to be better this year. Eric Decker was very good last year, but teams are going to start loading up to stop him. Can the Gopher running game improve from the 104th ranked attack last year to give Weber/Decker some breathing room? Sure, 10 returning starters on offense, but there are still a ton of question marks for the unit.

One thing the media will completely ignore that is integral to this team's success:

As has been mentioned before, the Gophers led the conference with a +12 turnover margin last season that looked even better until the luck abandoned them in the final five games. The defense, which returns 3 DB's, 3 LB's and both DT's needs to continue to force turnovers and give their offense as short of a field as they can. One thing that this team has going for it is a lot of team speed. Linebacker Simoni Lawrence wasn't a full time starter last year, rather, he earned his way on the field, and for good reason. He's a fast rush-end who can terrorize quarterbacks on passing downs. The secondary - with so many INT's last year - starts all upperclassmen.

The unit last year had a pretty big disparity between scoring defense and total defense - ranked 61st and 80th in the nation respectively. This points to a bend-don't-break mentality that relied on...you guessed it...turnovers for big stops. If the defense can improve - and they have the players to do so - and get some big three and outs while maintaining their propensity for game changing turnovers, the Gophers will be in good shape to return to a bowl game.

Most important contributors on each side of the ball:

Traye Simmons also being awesome

Offensively, it's gotta be Eric Decker, who is no-doubt-about-it one of the best receivers in the country. He's a big target for Adam Weber to look for, and demands double coverage. Not only should Decker get his - he had 1,074 yards with 7 TD's last season - but he should allow the running game some room to work. It should also open some of the field for Brandon Green and Ben Kuznia to work. Let's not forget that Brewster was a TE coach and player in his former life. Senior Nick Tow-Arnett returns from ACL surgury this season, and will give Weber a nice outlet when Decker is inevitably blanketed.

Defensively, cornerback Traye Simmons led the team last year with 4 INT's and is capable of shutting down his side of the field. The 5-11 senior is tall, athletic, and must perform at a high level.

Area that scares you as Michigan Wolverines:

Michigan doesn't play Minnesota this year. However, for purposes of a preview, I will say that there would be two things that could work together to give Michigan fits. First, they return two defensive tackles in Eric Small and Garrett Brown. If these two get a good push up the middle, that would force Tate (or whoever, I suppose) into some hasty decisions that would allow their opportunistic defense to get some good looks at some INTS. We don't have to worry about that this season, as the jug rests safely in Ann Arbor.

Area that makes you salivate as the Michigan Wolverines:

With the same caveat as above, I'd say that I can't see how the Gopher offense improves to the point where I could see them as being dangerous. Win the field-position battle (MESKO SPACE PUNT), and limit turnovers (gulp...), and I think this Gopher team is very beatable.

Overall Record:

Man, that's a tough schedule. I have them at 5-7, missing a bowl game.

Final Big Ten Standing:

8th

Bowl Destination

Negative Ghost Rider...the pattern is full.