SB Nation - Mike Hart

Agony of Defeat: Michigan Beats Michigan, Iowa Named Beneficiaries

SCM — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 15:58:08 -0000

Arg. Arg, arg, arg, arg, arg. Deep breath (remember man, we're so young), another deep breath... arg that was infuriating. How do we couch this? Well for one thing Michigan outplayed Iowa on Saturday night. An offensive line that was a glorified strainer last week turned their highly-touted D-line into a non-factor, we pounded the ball on the ground against a team that just doesn't give up rushing TDs to the tune of three of em and 200 yards on the ground (and that was without a lightning bolt big play in there too), we completely shut down Iowa's running game: 2.4 yards per carry, and the defensive line controlled the line of scrimmage throughout most of the night and came up with several huge stops, including a goal-line stand. And yet there's the 800 lb turnover beast that is sitting in the corner over there... five of those bad-boys, four completely unforced turnovers and one kinda-forced fumble proved to be just enough to hold Michigan back from knocking off the #12 team in the country on the road. Iowa did what you are supposed to do with gifts, they cashed them in, and it proved to be barely enough for Michigan to overcome. Two of the factors that Michigan fans, us included, worried about prior to the season reared their ugly head on Saturday night: play of the safeties, and freshman mistakes at QB. Mike Williams unfortunately showed up in the replays of many key plays last night in the entirely wrong way... I mean really, 3rd and @#%@#%@#@#% 24? 3rd and 24? Fans like to throw around "inexcusable" in all kinds of ways, but uh, giving up 3rd and 24 is inexcusable. To get beat once on a nicely timed throw to the TE was acceptable, to let it happen again was not. Anyways, more on that later too. The team's youth and lack of depth in certain spots showed up at the worst times last night, and we couldn't overcome it. Freshman mistakes? You betcha.

Miscellaneous

- There was some good old fashioned slobber-knocking in this football game, the crown jewel of which was the hit on Daryll Stonum's kickoff return... goodness gracious me, that was a lick.

- Um, when the ball was snapped over Ricky Stanzi's head in (I believe) the first half, and their running back simply tackled Jonas Mouton while he broke through the line... how's that not called a hold? It carries no consequence as I understand that we would've declined it as it put them in a 3rd and long anyways, but is there something I'm missing there, that has to be a flag right? If not, someone please educate me.

- Alright, a coaching quibble from me: why the onside kick? Three minutes and change was enough time, even with one timeout, to kick it deep and rely on your defense to come up with a stop and not forfeit 20-30 yards of field position. I didn't understand the call there.

- I was stunned, literally stunned, that Ferentz went for it on 4th and goal.

- This team isn't quite good enough to get away with playing poorly and winning, but hotdamn they're close.

Offense

- I guarantee some Iowa fan will wax poetic about how their defense caused the benching of Tate Forcier... which is patently wrong. Forcier's unforced errors last night that lead to him getting the hook. An unrushed throw into double coverage for the pick, a fumble in which he wasn't touched, tripping over a yardline on 2nd and 4 to kill a drive, happy feet in the pocket with good protection, and throws into areas that just simply did not make sense were the story of Tate's night. What ultimately lead to the benching was the series where we came out after a kickoff, promptly got a delay of game (AFTER A KICKOFF... BREAKING THINGS HERE), and he just started chucking the ball for no real apparent reason: he wasn't running the offense, and that earned him a spot on the bench. Iowa's D had nothing to do with the majority of these mistakes.

- Brings me to my next question... Tate is so good throwing on the run, why wasn't he rolling out more in this game?

- Hats off to the O-line, even sans Molk they turned in a great performance. After watching what happened last week, I was awfully worried about going up against Iowa's D-line, but the guys up front did a fantastic job giving our QBs time and creating holes.

- All night long the offense just couldn't quite get up to the pace we wanted to run at. It will come with more experience, but when we did approach that kind of speed, we moved the football.

- Oh yeah, about Denard Robinson getting the nod on that final drive... I can say at the time I didn't really question it, he had just driven us right down the field for a touchdown and looked quite good in doing so. Now then, the end result doesn't sit all that well with everyone who watched Forcier do nothing but look eight shades of awesome at the end of practically every game thus far this season. If I were wearing the headset, I probably would've tapped Tate's shoulder, looked him in the eye and said "Get it done" and sent him out there all while thanking Denard up and down for kick-starting the offense again. Even despite that, I am reluctant to second guess the call because based on what had happened in the game to that point, sending Denard back out there made all kinds of sense, he had made several good crisp throws on the previous drive and moved the ball down the field for a score, hard to argue with that. Let's recall that Denard got put into the game in an incredibly difficult position, down two scores late in the 4th and he too is a true freshman.

- Robinson made the one mistake you just can't make in that situation... I'm not sure what prompted the throw, particularly when he could've taken off (there was TONS of time) or hit Odoms for an easy first down, but ugh... That's all that needs to be said about it, just ugh.

- Brandon Minor finally looked like a healthy Brandon Minor out there, some really tough running from him in big spots, and he was pretty much responsible for an entire touchdown drive... BUT he also had that HORRIFYING fumble, which by the by was the ONLY forced turnover on the night. Maybe we're still spoiled by Mike Hart's excellence but uh, you can't fumble the football on a 3 yard gain in which you're going nowhere, just protect the thing... that just killed a big drive at the end of the first half.

- I liked the new pitch wrinkle we threw into the rushing game last night, and I have a feeling I will like it more when Carlos Brown is healthy and back on the field.

- Someone please tell me why we're not taking two to three deep shots a game, anyone? Anyone? Junior Hemingway and Daryll Stonum are essentially non-factors in our offense right now, and that should not be the case. Kevin Koger and Martavious Odoms again came up big with drive sustaining catches throughout the night, they are by far the most consistent aspects of this offense right now.

- 3 for 11 on 3rd down wasn't and isn't good enough.

Defense

- This defense is either on or off, there is no in-between it appears.

- Donovan Warren was incredible last night, and that's even with him dropping another pick inside Iowa's 25. Huge game from him, just huge.

- Fool me once, shame on you... Great call for Iowa's first TD to Moeaki, Mike Williams bit HARD on the fake-block and the middle of the field was beyond vacant. Fool me twice, shame on me: that it happened again was ludicrous.

- The safety play was appalling, no other word for it, appalling. The lack of ability of this defense to get off the freakin' field on 3rd and long has already shortened the lifespan of the majority of this fanbase, I guarantee it. I know we're tissue paper-thin, I know that, but there were mistakes made that even tissue-paper thin defenses can't make out there.

- Brandon Graham did whatever he wanted with whomever was lined up across from him, he was a beast last night. Mike Martin also played a very solid football game.

- Stevie Brown made a great read on that 3rd and goal stop, just a tremendous play. And actually, I thought the LBs as a group played well, Mouton and Ezeh seemed to be in position more often than not, and both made key plays during the game.

- We brought a lot more pressure last night, I liked that we brought guys up to the line of scrimmage and got into the backfield, it's just too bad the coverage wasn't up to par in key spots. In line with that, we saw much less of the soft coverage stuff giving up the sticks, which yay, but too many missed assignments particularly from the safeties.

- Troy Woolfolk stepped into the corner spot and made a number of big plays, you can count me as pleasantly surprised, that certainly was an area of concern heading towards kickoff and he played well.

Special Teams

- So if Iowa's punter is a "weapon" according to Brent Musberger, what's Zoltan Mesko? 53.8 yards per punt? Zounds!

- Why the dropped punt... just why? If you have to go to your knees to catch the punt, isn't it better to just let the stupid thing go? Iowa was going to get the ball anyway due to the "roughing" the kicker penalty, but good GOD, that was terrible.

- Our kick and punt coverage was decidedly "meh" last night, part of that was because Zoltan was hitting bombs and outkicking the coverage, but how many times did the first two guys not even touch their returner?

Overall

- After getting flat outplayed for the majority of the Michigan State game, this team responded in the areas that were truly lacking in East Lansing, and made gaffs that you just can't overcome against a solid team at home. Minus 4 in the turnover margin was the death knell for Michigan on Saturday night.

- So goes the Penn State game so goes the rest of the season, period. We need to destroy Delaware State and get ready for the Nittany Lions to come to Ann Arbor.

Preview Like Substance: Michigan State

Beauford — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:04:23 -0000

Michigan takes their defense shreddin' show on the road this weekend to East Lansing, home of the Michigan State Agricultural and Technical School known simply as "The Aggies." I made that part up. They're actually Spartans, which isn't gay at all.

via www.clickthecity.com

Nope. Not at all. Anyways, the weeks preceding any Michigan vs. Michigan State game are usually filled with blustery comments from a team perpetually on the rise, and this year is no different. Oh, there it is:

Mark Dantonio is the man credited with the Michigan State turnaround, bringing them back to prominance and glory, insulting the physical stature of Michigan players on his way:

Dantonio on Mike Hart's "Little Brother" Comments (via MichiganSportsCenter)

Offense

So what can the Wolverines expect from the latest Michigan State team to "turn it around?" Well, not a whole lot in the way of defense. As mentioned in a previous post, Michigan State's defense is considerably worse than Indiana's, and their passing defense is one of the worst in the country. Their rushing defense has been good not great, and that theoretically plays to their advantage as Michigan brings their top-ranked rushing unit into town. The key here is making sure that their one star linebacker - Greg Jones - has a body or two on him every play. The defensive line is going through some injury problems, and is paper thin. The run-stuffing onus is going to be put on the linebacking crew who, frankly, aren't very good except that Jones can be super man when he wants to and make up for the lack of talent everywhere else.

I look for Michigan to throw some wrinkles into their zone-dive heavy runs. With the linebackers no doubt aware of the potent rushing attack, they will be susceptible to those little screens and slot-ninja awesomeness that Michigan runs off the zone-dive look. If I were a betting man, I'd also say that Michigan is going to deploy something offensively that we haven't seen yet. There's a reason Rodriguez and co. shut down practice to outsiders this week, you know.

If Tate remains upright and continues his accuracy on the run, I would think that the passing game is actually going to be a more successful venture for this offense. Michigan State is going to set up to defend that run at all cost. Forcier should have the opportunity for a big day. Like Brian has mentioned in his preview - I look for a heavy dose of Koger as well after seeing Wisconsin TE's run wild. And please - no more Webb? I don't have a solid understanding of X's and O's, but it seems that he's dropped a few that have hit him right in the numbers while Koger is busy catching misthrown balls by using the force or something. Just throw to Koger, mkay?

Defense

Meanwhile, the Michigan State offense is actually pretty effective throwing the ball themselves with starter Cousins, and to a lesser extent Nichol. In my season preview of Michigan State I predicted that Nichol would eventually start over Cousins, but I was wrong, wrong, wrong. Cousins has been accurate, except when pressured. When pressured, this happens (fast forward to about the 9 minute mark for Cousins):

2009: Notre Dame vs. Michigan State (College Football Highlights) (via JB5GoIrish)

So yeah, just like every other opponent we've faced this year, if our pass coverage is to be successful, it will be pressure that makes it successful. We were good at this against Western, atrocious against Notre Dame, and semi-good against Indiana. Eastern doesn't count. Cornerbacks can succeed playing off in coverage if a quarterback is hurried into making questionable throws. Cover-2. It works. But if Graham and co. are getting bottled up at the LOS, it's going to be another looong day in pass coverage. I predict that Mark Dell will have at least one completion for 40+ yards. If he gets more than one, we're going to have trouble winning this game.

The MSU rushing attack isn't special at just 117 YPG. That's good for 10th in the Big Ten. What's nice about this particular feature of the Michigan State offense is that Graham probably won't have to worry too much about the run and will likely be directed to "kill Cousins as early and often as possible." This should, should, allow him to become the pass rush beast he's always been, and hopefully allow for a sack or two. Just moving Cousins off his spot will be very important. If you look at Roh's success is getting into the backfield, it's almost always a result of Graham providing pressure that forces the ball carrier to roll into Roh. I think this is a game in which both Roh and Graham can get really nasty.

Speaking of pressuring the quarterback, and as SCM points out daily now, I would like to see a few more designed blitzes for Ezeh. He's been so tentative so far this season, why not get him mixed up in the action at the LOS? It would make it nearly impossible for him to play passive. I'm sure there are any number of holes in this logic, it just seems to me that he's better when he's got a clear idea of where to attack instead of saying "here is a hole, I must plug it quickly."

Prediction: Michigan is going to need every ounce of offense they can muster, and there are so many wildcards affecting this that it makes predictions tough. Will Tate be ok on the road? Hell, will the entire youth of this team be ok on the road? Will his shoulder hold up? Will the defense get pressure? Will it be raining as hard as they've been predicting?

This puppy is going to be a shootout. My prediction is 42-38 Michigan. Take the over.

GO BLUE

via farm1.static.flickr.com

The Great College Football Debate: The Michigan State Spartans

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 16:09:21 -0000

With Michigan Football just weeks away, the guys at Maize n Brew are getting a little antsy for the season to start. The only way around it? Argue about football. Argue a lot. Each of us have already gone through Michigan's 2009 Football Schedule with a ~~fine tooth comb~~ a single half-assed glance and come out with completely different opinions on games, wins, losses, and season outcomes. Take a look for yourself, here are Beauford's, MnB Dave's, and SCM's predictions.

With the exception of Delaware State, every game is a bone of contention between us. Michigan State? You bet your ass. None of us can agree on it. So rather than duel it out with pistols at dawn or get our brawl on, fight club style, we engage in The Great College Football Debate. Five to six questions on the team in question. Five to six ~~in-depth~~ ~~half-ass~~ mediocre answers. You get content, we get to look like complete and total ~~idiots~~ geniuses in a few months. Sounds like a plan to us. We've already held The Great College Football Debate on Notre Dame, Iowa and Penn State, so now it's time to take a look at the fightin' Dantonios of Michigan State.

So, without further ado:

The Great Debate: The Michigan St. Spartans

1) Ringer: gone; Hoyer: gone. What's a realistic expectation of this offense that replaces a work horse running back and a marginal quarterback?

SCM: Several previews I've read on MSU seem to use the logic that unproven/inexperienced talent will be able to fill in any of the gaps losing Hoyer and Ringer have left. Never mind that Ringer tallied 390 carries last year... and we thought we rode Mike Hart hard in '06 (318 carries)??? Without a Clydesdale like Ringer to carry the offense or an experienced QB to lean on, I'm not sure exactly what Dantonio is going to do. Hoyer might have indeed been marginal, but replacing a senior QB is replacing a senior QB. Dantonio clearly is out of the Tressel-ball mold, but without a known commodity (at least early on) to move the sticks and burn the clock, will he have to open up the offense a bit? Methinks so. I think State will be nothing more than "meh" on offense, they do return 7 starters from the 8th ranked O in the league last season (IIRC), but if they continually put an excellent defense in bad situations while trying to find their "spark", it's going to burn them. MSU was fortunate to end up with the record they did last year despite being outgained by their opponents on average. Counting on the defense to let the offense catch-up-to-speed without any consequences is... well it's a mistake in logic I made leading up to last season.

390 carries of this. Photo via pennlive.com

Maize n Brew Dave: I think the expectations for this offense need to toned down just based on the departures on the offensive line. MSU lost two starting linemen who combined for 26 starts last year. And it's not like last year's line was overpowering anyone to begin with. Ringer carried the ball 390 times but only rushed for a 4.2 average and 1637 or so yards. That's notsogood when you consider Shonn Green had 307 carries and rushed for more than 200 extra yards. Hell, Jahvid Best at Cal rushed for 1580 on 194 carries. Almost TWO HUNDRED fewer carries than Ringer. In the Big East, Donald Brown of Connecticut rushed for 2083 yards on 367 carries. What I'm getting at is that it seems no one had more carries and did less with them than Michigan State's offensive line. Face it, the only rusher in the NCAA's top 75 in yards per game with a lower yards per carry average was Josh Nesbitt of Georgia Tech. Why does that sound weird? Because Nesbitt's a Quarterback!

If Dantonio runs the same offense he did last year there's no way in hell MSU is able to replicate its offensive success this year. Ringer was a special player, seemingly solely based on his ability to run into a brick wall time after time and not get injured. To expect that kind of durability year after year from any group of running backs, let alone one back, is absurd. The ground game is going to take a big step back. That said, I'm not willing to write off the passing game. Brian Hoyer was "competent" the same way Anthony Morrelli was (i.e., not that good).

Smile Cousins! via SBnation.com

Personally I think Cousins or Nichol (who was a 4 star Oklahoma commit) will be better than Hoyer from the first snap. Cousins has some game experience. Nichol has the big arm. And both of them have outstanding receivers to throw to. I think you'll see dramatic improvement out of the offense in the passing game which should soften the decline of the running game. All things considered, this should still be an Offense in that 6-8th range in the Big Ten. More big plays by the receivers but much fewer on the ground.

Beauford Bixel: This is one of those looming question marks with fangs that every fan dreads. As loath as I am to focus solely on the skill positions, replacing an all-Big Ten running back and a senior quarterback is never easy. Waiting in line behind Hoyer are, however, two quarterbacks who were at least somewhat highly touted and don't possess the "true freshman" status that sent Michigan into a Sparty-No!-esque tailspin last year. Keith Nichol was a 4-star out of Michigan who originally committed to Oklahoma before realizing he was buried on the depth chart. He transfered back to State, and ran the scout team last year while sitting out per NCAA rules. Kirk Cousins, another in-state product, enters the spring as the tentative starter having spent two years in the MSU system, although he was a 2-star to Scout with a smattering of MAC level offerings. Cousins does, however, possess a winning smile.

Replacing a senior quarterback is never good, but both of these options > Walk-on.

Andre Anderson appears to be the starting running back, but nobody is going to replace Javon Ringer's 390 carries on their own. State will likley employ a bevy of running backs to try to match Ringer's production. Anderson - another 2-star - is built to break big plays, and containing him will be a priority.

More of The Great Debate: the Michigan State Spartans after the jump....

2) D'Antonio has been a bit...gruff...when it comes to how he speaks and deals with Michigan. Adding fire to the rivalry? Or just being a dick?

SCM: Without sugar coating it, he's a dick. He handled the whole Mike Hart "little brother" thing like a petulant child and hasn't done anything to reverse that image since. State fans being comprised mostly of petulant children with raging inferiority complexes, I'm sure they love it. I would be willing to bet he also throws an "sc" in front of "UM" every time he mentions the school in correspondence. In a roundabout way he's added fire to the rivalry just in the aspect that he is an ass and it's certainly more fun to beat someone who's going to give you press conference gold afterward.

MnB Dave: Dantonio strikes me as a bit of a Mike Keenan, if you'll forgive crossing sports and the professional/amateur distinction. He's a harsh disciplinarian. He doesn't tolerate any BS. He's a good tactician. And he's pressed every right button to motivate his team and fan base over the last two years. He's not a particularly friendly guy to an outsider, but outsiders don't matter to him. What's important is his team. His school. And he knows that the most important thing to his school and his team is to beat Michigan consistently. As Michigan fans, we're not used to the backtalk coming from East Lansing. It's been a while since the Spartans have been a legitimate threat on the football field. So the constant white noise emitting from the Spartan fanbase has been easy to ignore. But Dantonio, to his credit, realizes that the fan base is insanely tired of the "we'll get ‘em next year" mentality of program since Saban left. And the only way you change that mentality is with a little bit of force from the top. So, yeah, maybe Dantonio's being a little bit of a dick, but that's what he has to be to bring MSU back to relevance in the Big Ten and national picture. And to do that, he's got to take Michigan down.

BB: I will cop to writing this question solely to get a response from SCM, which he provided with aplomb. I do think that D'Antonio is rather prickish when it comes to Michigan, and I think his comments about Mike Hart's height were completely bush league, but uh, yeah Hart did have a mouth on him too, so there's that.

3) Greg Jones remains one of my favorite players in the Big Ten. His defense returns a ton of starters. What's your primary concern vis a vis our offense vs. their defense?

Greg Jones taking in the Citrus Bowl from field level. Photo via Collegefootballfansite.com

SCM: In the conference, MSU ranked 8th in total D and rushing D along with a 6th in pass D last season. So, uh, why exactly all of the hyperbole about the D heading into this season? Sure Greg Jones is talented, I have no qualms there. Yes they return 8 starters, but outside of the LBs, what scares you on that defense? My primary concern is making sure that we open up the middle of the field early on to get the rushing game going and prevent the Spartan D from simply throwing the kitchen sink at Forcier.

MnB Dave: Other than the linebackers, honestly, there's no one on the Spartan defense that really scares me. Oren Wilson at DT is good, but not spectacular. The same can be said for Trevor Anderson at DE. It's a decent returning pair, but you're also plugging in two new starters from your special teamers and limited back-ups into that line. What shocks me is that even as bad as Michigan was last year, its run defense was actually better than Michigan States'. Check out the numbers. I think MSU's run defense will improve a bit with the veteran ‘backers in the mix, but it's not a world beating defensive front. On the back end, the Spartans have two veteran corners, but some issues with their returning safeties (injuries, not being that good, etc...). I think deep coverage is going to be an issue this season as well. Bad safeties = nightmares. Trust me. I know this. With Michigan State's question mark next to Wilson, I think you'll see a lot of running away from Wilson and Anderson and towards the less experienced guys. I also think, as good as the linebackers are, you'll see a lot of the slot receiver on roll outs against the safeties. Once those safeties are up at the line, maybe lob some bombs deep. But the first priority is to gain yards against the unproven guys.

BB: The defense last year was good enough to win some ball games, but not quite experienced enough to lean too heavily on. That's why Ringer and Hoyer's ability to keep drives alive were paramount. This year, the defense is going to have to be a rock because this offense is likely to put them in some bad situations. Greg Jones is awesome, and when I look at this defensive unit, I see a lot of speed, which could make the read-option a non-option. They look to me to be a bit undersized (only one defensive lineman approaches 300 lbs, and sophomore DT Kevin Pickelman is 255 lbs.), and could be subjected to MINOR RAGE.

4) Given the track record for games played @ MSU, lay down some odds for what freaky occurrence will happen this year.

SCM: By freaky occurrence do you mean "cheating" ('01) or "horrifyingly blatant bad call" (Henne's "fumble" in '05)? Given the continuation of officials' inability to properly call a football game in this series (see Brandon Minor's "TD" last year) I think it's even money that something rage-inducing happens this year as well.

MnB Dave: Even money. You can't have a Michigan/Michigan State game without a referee doing something that makes pull your hair our.

BB: The absolutely horrendous officiating in this game has gone back and forth over the years, what with the "million-year second," the "forward pass fumble," and last year's "Minor-Pylon-TD." My guess is that a paraglider drops onto the field to disrupt play. Wait, that's already happened?

Anyway, it will be scored a touchdown for Purdue, who won't be involved in this game.

5) A lot of talk has been made of MSU snapping up in-state recruits. Address this.

SCM: I am not really concerned, I haven't seen many instances where U of M and MSU have been vying for the same coveted guy yet. Rodriguez gave perhaps the best quote on this topic: "To judge on that and give a perception that one school is dominating the state ... I don't know how much validity there is to that. I know the last couple years, the recruiting classes we've got what we've felt are the best players in the state. Our primary focus in recruiting starts in Michigan and expands in other areas of the Midwest and then south." The reporter followed with: "But there seems to be the perception that Michigan State is taking over the state in recruiting" Rodriguez responded "Last I checked, Mike Martin and Will Campbell were playing for Michigan. Depending on your agenda, whoever you talk to, whatever their agenda is will lead the conversation. I feel pretty good about our reputation in state." Huzzah. In other words, we've gotten the guys we've wanted to get out of the state of Michigan.

MnB Dave: Not that big a deal. Sure you'd like to nab all the top talent in-state every year, but that doesn't happen. Oh wait. It does. Anyone trumpeting the OMG MSU OWNZ0RS INSTATE!!1!!!1 isn't paying that much attention to who's being recruited. In the 2009 class, lessee... Michigan took the top player. Same in 2008. Same in 2007. It'll be the same in 2010 because Devin Gardner is pretty much a lock to be ranked as the top dual threat QB in the country. If there's an issue, MSU is snapping up a lot of guys to starter in East Lansing who would usually be depth guys at Michigan. That'll be something that needs to be addressed if Michigan's national presence doesn't allow them to recruit depth from across the country. Wait... it does? Never mind then.

It's not an issue.

BB: The bottom line here is that MSU has always grabbed some in-state recruits. Notice both their quarterbacks are in-state products, one a 4 star who committed to powerhouse Oklahoma before transfering. Michigan has, however, been able to nab the tippy-top talent from in-state while continuing to focus more on Florida and Texas. Campbell, Gardner, White, Martin - these are all players who have committed to Rodriguez during his tenure at Michigan. We'll always lose out on a Gholston every now and again (he appears to be headed to MSU, at any rate), but by and large, the tizzy about Michigan losing in-state recruits has been mostly fabricated by shaudenfraud-filled fans of opposing schools.

(If you're looking for other break downs, check out The Great College Football Debate on Notre Dame, Iowa and Penn State)

Know thy Opponent 2009: Michigan Wolverines

BoilerTMill — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 13:03:17 -0000

I will go on record before even starting this preview that we will lose the Michigan game. It does not matter how good we are or how bad Michigan is. We have proven over the last 40 years that we simply cannot play good football at Michigan Stadium. We have had great quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Mark Phipps, Kyle Orton, and Mark Herrmann go winless there. Some of our best teams in school history, such as our 9-4 team in 2003 that was very close to being 12-1, have gotten blown out there. Even when we have a miracle and a Jim Colletto coached team holds the Wolverines to five points in 1995 we couldn't get one damn touchdown to win the game.

Since Bob Griese and company went in and won at the Big House 22-21 on October 15, 1966, Purdue is 0-17 in Ann Arbor. The closest games were a 5-0 loss in 1995 and a 9-6 loss in 1972. In six of those losses we haven't even managed to score a single point. All but the 1995 and 1972 game were at least two touchdown defeats. We don't just lose there, we get blown out.

Theoretically, this should be the year we're at least competitive. Then again, in theory, communism works. Michigan won't be "Michigan" this season or, in my opinion, as long as Rich Rodriguez is their head coach. There is absolutely no excuse that with the talent Michigan recruits without even trying they should ever have a 3-9 season. Still, that doesn't mean we're going to win there this year. The Michigan game at Michigan officially reached the "until I see it happen" stage as far as predicting a win goes. After we rolled over and died against a team that couldn't stop a 1-AA team two years ago I no longer have any hope for ever seeing a win up there.

This is your typical Purdue-Michigan score in Ann Arbor, though we usually don't get 21 points. Thanks, Joey Elliott, for the meaningless touchdowns in the last two minutes.

2008 Record: 3-9, (2-6 Big Ten)

Bowl Result: none

Blog Representation: MGoBlog, MVictors, Varsity Blue, Michigan Sports Center, iBlog for Cookies, Maize'n'Brew, Maize & Blue Nation

Series with Purdue: Michigan leads 41-13-0

Last Purdue win: 11/1/2008 at Purdue 48-42

Last Michigan win: 10/13/2007 at Michigan 48-21

Last Season for the Wolverines:

Rich Rodriguez is very lucky I am not Michigan's athletic director, because I would have fired him after last year's 3-9 debacle. Michigan was very lucky to win the three games it did win. Michigan probably played its best in a 25-23 loss to undefeated Utah in the season opener. In that game, a missed 2-point conversion in the final minutes cost the Wolverines the tie. It got worse from there. Home losses to Illinois, Toledo, Michigan State, and Northwestern meant just a 2-5 home record. On the road, the Wolverines managed just a 29-6 win at Minnesota to go unbeaten in the Metrodome. It was bad, but it was made even worse by the fact that this is a team filled with more raw talent than 110 other teams every year. Like Notre Dame in 2007, there was absolutely no excuse to be that bad.

This year's schedule does not guarantee a return to a bowl, either. Western Michigan is a very good MAC team that could win the season opener. They are certainly better than Toledo was last year. Though we will be cheering for the Wolverines, a victory in game 2 over Notre Dame is far from a guarantee. It is never a good sign when Indiana thinks they can beat Michigan. Road trips to Michigan State, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin in conference play are not easy, while Penn State and Ohio State come to Ann Arbor as conference favorites. Michigan should be better in year #2 of RichRod simply because of more experience, but making a bowl game could be a stretch.

Michigan offense:

Michigan did not have consistent quarterback play last season, but that was blamed on Steven Threet and nick Sheridan not being the right guys for the system. Threet is gone and Sheridan has been relegated to backup for true freshman Tate Forcier. With Forcier, the Wolverines may now have an edge in the cocky quarterback who hasn't accomplished anything of note department over 2-year defending champ Jimmy Clausen. At least Clausen didn't open a website to flaunt his recruiting and high school championships.

Seriously though, Forcier is expected to be the savior of Michigan football. He is a great passer while on the run and he has the ability to make something out of nothing with his legs. While his high school numbers were good, he doesn't have an overwhelming amount of size at 6'1" 187. He will be an exciting player to watch, but I am encouraged that we see many of quarterbacks of his style (Jeremiah Moseli, Chandler Harnish, , mike Kafka, Terrelle Pryor, and Juice Williams) before we see Forcier. He will be the least experienced of that group, so if our defense handles those before him well we should be able to handle Forcier.

One player that does scare me is running back Brandon Minor. Simply put, Minor owns us. He had just 553 yards rushing and nine scores last season, but against Purdue he went for 155 yards and three scores. If not for an injury after three carries in the 2007 game he would have even more yards. As it was in that game, we allowed Mike Hart to run for 102 yards and two scores in a half, followed by third string Carlos Brown's 66 yards and two scores. Both Brown and Minor are back as the top two running backs. We have proven that we cannot stop any Michigan running backs based on our last three games with them, so I have little hope we will start now.

With as bad as Michigan's quarterbacks were last year, the receivers were non-factors in most games. Martavious Odoms had the biggest impact as a receiver in last year's game, and that came on a 73-yar punt return for a score in the first quarter. It was his only touchdown last season, though he did lead Michigan in receiving with 49 catches for 443 yards. Greg Mathews (35-409-2) ranked second on the team, and tied Minor for first in touchdown receptions. Michigan only generated 11 passing touchdowns last season, but two of them came against Purdue. Junior Hemingway should emerge as a solid third receiver after missing most of the year with an ankle injury. Roy Roundtree, the four-star recruit that spurned Purdue for Michigan before last season, redshirted and is still busy getting splinters out of his rear end. He is not on the two deeps at receiver.

The offensive line wasn't great, but wasn't awful last year despite losing three starters. While it was a weakness last year, it should be a strength as this season all five projected starters have starting experience. Right guard David Moosman and center David Molk are the anchors as they started every game at their respective positions last year. Mark Ortmann also has plenty of experience at left tackle, leaving Stephen Schilling and Mark Huyge to start at left guard and right tackle, respectively. Their biggest problem last season was learning a new blocking scheme as the offense drastically changed. They took some blame, but they are not the reason Michigan quarterbacks threw 12 interceptions and completed less than 50% of their passes.

Michigan defense:

It is hard to argue what was worse in 2008. The Michigan offense averaged barely 20 points per game and scored more than 20% of its season total against Purdue alone. The defense gave up 29 per game and got burned by a third string quarterback making his first career start. That game was a microcosm of Michigan's season. Just as the offense finally figured some things out the defense turned in an even worse performance. It doesn't matter how much better the offense gets this year unless there is marked improvement on the defense.

A rare positive moment for Purdue against Michigan.

The defensive line could be a huge liability this season. Only Brandon Graham (46 tackles, 10 sacks) is a proven performer up front. Michigan will probably play quite a bit of 3-4, meaning Mike Martin at nose tackle and Ryan Van Bergen at the other end position will have to play well as starters. True freshman William Campbell at 6'5" 330 pounds will likely see time in the rotation at tackle as well. This was supposed to be the best part of the defense last year, but it was a disaster with all its experience. Now they will have to improve without much proven experience.

Linebacker Obi Ezeh had a good year, leading Michigan with 98 tackles. It was a good freshman season for him on the outside, but more will be expected from him. Jonas Mouton started every game except the Utah game and was second on the team with 76 tackles. There is a question of when he will be ready after missing spring practice with shoulder surgery. Brandon Herron and Steve Brown will provide speed at the other two linebacker positions, with Brown being a hybrid safety/linebacker

Safety is the one position on defense where Michigan appears to be totally set. Troy Woolfolk, Steve Brown, and Michael Williams will all start the season, but much is expected from incoming freshman Vladimir Emilien. Emilien is expected to make a huge impact, and could be starting by the time the Purdue game rolls around. At cornerback, Michigan has plenty of good tacklers, but there isn't a true shutdown corner. Donovan Warren had 52 tackles and an interception last year. He will be joined on the other side by Boubacar Cissoko. Cissiko is a bit undersized at 5'9", but we lack a big receiver to take advantage of that.

Michigan Special Teams:

I love the guys over at Maize N' Brew. Not only was I able to meet Dave after last season's Purdue game, they have developed a cult following around Michigan's punter. Zoltan Mesko, whom I would call Destroyer of Worlds with a name like that, has been dubbed the Space Emperor by the staff at Maize N' Brew. It may be because he had so much practice due to Michigan's awful offense, but Mesko may be the nation's best punter at 43 yards per boot. He pinned opponents inside the 20 24 times last year and opponents only averaged 7.9 yards per return.

Odoms will likely handle punt return duties, but his best day by far was against us. He and Cissoko will likely handle kick return duties as Michigan averaged 21.4 yards per return there.

Michigan must find a new placekicker this season after the departure of K.C. Lopata. Bryan Wright, who was a kickoff specialist last season, and freshman Brendan Gibbons will battle for that job.

Intangibles:

On paper I have a hard time seeing how Michigan is going to be much better than last year. The only guaranteed wins are Eastern Michigan and Delaware State. Still, this game is at Michigan. Their dominance of us is perplexing because there have been many different factors, but the result has always been the same. They blow us out nearly every time. If this game were at Purdue, where I have been personal witness to three of our all-time 13 wins against them (all since 1996), I would give us a major advantage. If they were winless and we were undefeated I would still pick Michigan by two touchdowns because of our baffling inability to play good football up there.

Game Outlook:

I expect this to unfold like every other Purdue Michigan game in Ann Arbor since 1966. The Wolverines will dominate in the running game. Brandon Minor will have a he day by running for close to 200 yards and a couple scores. No matter how well we are playing, we will have stupid turnovers and be unable to capitalize on the few mistakes that Michigan makes.

It doesn't have to be this way, either. This is absolutely a game we should, on paper, be able to win easily. Tate Forcier is at least a year away from running that offense with precision. The Michigan defense looks to be extremely vulnerable against the run. All we should have to do is run the ball, make a few pass completions, and stop them from running the ball. We should have a better chance at winning here than we do at Minnesota or Wisconsin, but because of our history in Ann Arbor I fully expect to get rolled.

Prediction:

If it doesn't happen this year, I doubt it will ever happen. We have got to break our long drought at Michigan Stadium. If Toledo and Appalachian State can do it, why can't we? It is because we are Purdue, and we leave all football playing ability at the Ann Arbor city limit. Michigan 24, Purdue 6

Top 10 SEC-Big Ten Games of the Last Decade: #2 - Michigan v Alabama, 2000 Orange Bowl

grahamfiller10 — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 17:24:40 -0000

The Hype and the Players

I had no idea Tom Brady would end up as the face of American football, but in 1999 I knew that a) #8 Michigan was throwing more than ever in my short lifetime and b) the man behind all those attempts threw a damn good ball. Supported by veterans like Rob Renes, Steve Hutchinson, and David Teeeeerrell (if you don't know the infamous David Terrell dorm party story, you are probably better off), this would have been a national championship team if not for two mid-season losses to Michigan State and Illinois. Lloyd Carr defeated ND, Penn State, and Ohio State...and then found ways to lose to Illinois and MSU. A weird season overall, but another victory over John Cooper's Bucks found the Maize and Blue in the 2000 Orange Bowl against a loaded Alabama Crimson Tide squad.

The SEC champion and fifth ranked Crimson Tide, fresh off victories over Florida and Auburn, relied heavily on running back Shaun Alexander and a defense that had steadily improved over the year. The only thing slowing the dominant Alexander was a mid-season ankle injury and it seemed he was at full strength when the Orange Bowl rolled around. If you stopped Alexander, coach Mike Dubose would turn to play action with quarterback Andrew Zow, a somewhat forgettable signalcaller who was steady, but definitely unspectacular throughout the season.

Two of the elite programs in college football, some future NFL offensive superstars, no dominant defenses...I think we all knew where this was going.

Game Recap: First Half

The Wolverines looked overmatched early, as Alabama's aggressive defense teed off on Michigan receivers and the slow Brady. Remember, this was a Michigan team running out of the Shotgun primarily, and the 'Bama defenders blitzed early and often, not fearing the running game or Anthony Thomas. A couple of stops and two methodical drives punctuated by Alexander touchdowns put Carr's squad in a 14-0 hole.

David Terrell, soon to be a huge NFL bust, had prospered under the new pass happy Michigan offense, catching 60 balls for almost 1000 yards during the season. He was a hugely important part of the passing game, using great hands to catch comeback routes in traffic and quickness to get open against anyone. After running a perfect seam route for a touchdown catch before the half, Terrell began to take over the game from his wide receiver position in the third quarter.

Game Recap: Second Half and OT

The third quarter was one of the best periods of football I've ever watched. Terrell couldn't be stopped - the 'Bama defensive backs consistently whiffed when trying to tackle him and Terrell got separation on any of the DB's assigned to cover him. The statistics say it well enough: 35 points (an Orange Bowl record), a scintilating Freddie Milons punt return for a TD, two more Terrell touchdowns, another Alexander touchdown on a run where he ran over and through the Michigan defense. The game began to resemble the late rounds of a boxing match as each team threw their best punches, trying desperately to finish the other with a knockout blow. At the end of the quarter, the game was all knotted up at 28.

Michigan had come back from two 14 point deficits, nothing new for a team that played 9 games decided by a touchdown or less. This game would not be any different. Brady sat back behind another great Michigan offensive line and picked apart the weary 'Bama secondary. And just when you thought Michigan would take the lead, they inexplicably blew opportunities. A-Train Anthony Thomas fumbled while diving into the endzone, wasting one of the best catches of the year, a falling back stretched out leap by Marquise Walker at the Alabama 2. Then Carr, who had abandoned the run by now, decided to put the ball in Brady's hands with two minutes left and 40 yards to get into field goal range. Brady cooly drove the Wolverines down the field with dump offs to his tight end Aaron Shea and darts to his wide receivers. A last second field goal try from Hayden Epstein was blocked, sending the game into overtime.

The Wolverines scored on the first play of OT and Zow countered with a TD pass on a rollout to tie the ga....Oh wait a minute. Alabama's kicker, Ryan Pflugner, blew the extra point right and the Wolverines had secured themselves a huge comeback victory.

Aftermath

Brady: An impressive 369 yards passing from the future Mr. Bundchen; showed his penchant for tossing perfect spirals when given time to throw.

Shaun Alexander: SEC player of the year, obviously NFL ready, 161 yards on 25 carries.

Other Stars: 'Bama - Chris Samuels, solid NFL offensive tackle; Milons, WR/Kick Returner. University of Michigan - Hutchinson, Renes, Jeff Backus, Ian Gold, Dhani Jones.

Whoops: Alabama was ranked #3 to start the next season and somehow ended up 3-8, including losses to Southern Miss and Central Florida.

At Least We Can Beat the SEC: Since 1990, Michigan has went 6-2 against the SEC, with victories over Mississippi, Florida twice, Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Here are the countdown games so far...

#3 - LSU v Illinois, 2002 Sugar Bowl

#4 -- Michigan v Florida, 2008 Capital One Bowl

#5 -- South Carolina v Ohio State, 2002 Outback Bowl

#6 -- Iowa v LSU, 2005 Capital One Bowl

#7 -- Georgia v Purdue, 2000 Outback Bowl

#8 -- Michigan State v Florida, 2000 Citrus Bowl

#9 -- Florida v Iowa, 2006 Outback Bowl

#10 -- Wisconsin v Arkansas, 2007 Capital One Bowl

Thursday Happy Hour Wants Free Steak, Brandon Minor to Break Out, and Looks at Some Michigan Football Previews

Maize n Brew Dave — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 15:15:31 -0000

Your daily (or semi-daily) rundown of all the Michigan Football, Michigan Basketball, College Football, and College Basketball news that you need to get by at your boring, boring desk job. For good measure will throw in a little irreverent information to help you salt away the time. Here's what's ON TAP:

Things You Need to Read Right Now

The College Football News gives us their annual, and thorough, preview of Michigan Football in 2009. Their Defensive preview, Offensive Preview, and depth charts are also up. There are some good assertions along side some very, very strange ones contained therein. For instance:

Ten Best UM Players
1. DE Brandon Graham, Sr.
2. LB Obi Ezeh, Jr.
3. RB Brandon Minor, Sr.
4. LB Jonas Mouton, Jr.
5. S Stevie Brown, Sr.
6. CB Donovan Warren, Jr.
7. P Zoltan Mesko, Sr.
8. QB Tate Forcier, Fr.
9. WR Martavious Odoms, Soph.
10. WR Greg Mathews, Sr.

So, well, there's that. It's easy to nitpick the little things, but overall it's a decent read and gives you a look at Michigan's depth and strengths. A few things puzzled me, though. First, just because we've inked a number of safeties over the last few years does not mean we have depth there. Depth means you have kids behind the starters that are ready to play and can play. Depth at linebacker and at safety are two things Michigan doesn't have right now. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see it. Also, just FYI, guys, Nick Sheridan is NOT "very fast."

The shallow cross, drag, and drive in the west coast and spread offenses. Smart Football, as usual, Wow.

The Divide Route in the Multiple Smash Concept. Understanding the "Smash" passing routes. Again. Wow.

Purchase University of South Florida season tickets Tuesday through Sunday and receive a gift certificate good for a free dinner at Outback Steakhouse! Seriously. This is not a joke.

New Tennessee Room!!! - VolNation - Holy crap. This is the very definition of mania. Pictures contained therein. Admit it. You'd do this to your house too.

Michigan Football

Mike Hart says Brandon Minor will be the man this year.

Now THIS is dedication. Our buddies over at Spawn of MZone took a Michigan helmet with them on their Roman vacation. Think of it as the "Traveling Ghome" except with a Michigan Helmet.

When Carcajous Attack! breaks down early recruiting commitments (re: June) under Rodriguez versus recruiting under Carr. Great read.

Wolverine Liberation Army takes a shot at the 3* superstar myth that seems to have grown around Rodriguez.

William Gholston and Mylan Hicks commit to MSU - Gholston, 6-foot-7 and 250 pounds, is a four/five-star recruit and the No. 11 defensive end in the country. Hicks, a 5-11, 179-pound cornerback, is a high three star. I know Ghloston's a loss, but Michigan needs corners worse than DEs.

Coach thinks recruit found good fit at U-M - There's a lot of fluff on Cornelius Jones for an unrated recruit.

Ranking the best receiving corps U-M faces in '09 - Notre Dame checks in at No. 1. If the D Line can't get to Clausen it's going to be a long, long afternoon.

Ranking the Big Ten wide receivers - Mathews at #3

Five Wolverines Michigan needs to step up. Mike Spath takes a look at five players that Michigan needs to excel this year. These aren't your stars, but these are the guys that let your stars work. In the case of Mike Jones (S), he's not far off. Our secondary is going to be even rawer than last year.

Morgan Trent Signs with the Bengals. Yeah. That's a good move...

The Free Press has an HTML corrupt top players in Michigan list.

Michigan Basketball

Andy Katz seems to be high on Michigan in his final top 25. I guess I can agree with a ranking, but I think 13 is a little too high for Michigan. A lot is going to depend on interior play this year, Sims and Gibson playing together, and whether Ben Cronin is as good as we're hoping.

13. Michigan: I could be in the minority here, but I love the way John Beilein has molded this crew over the past year. Manny Harris has fit quite nicely into Beilein's system. They struggled to make the NCAA field late in the season but did, and won a game. The Wolverines should be poised to make the Michigan State-Michigan basketball rivalry relevant for years to come.

Ohio State Football

There was a glut of OSU news, so it made sense to give it its own section...

The Columbus Dispatch does a fluff piece on Boren giving "his linemates physical education lesson." Never mind how that can be interpreted, I'm kinda lost on how anyone at OSU can be sold on this kid after the Buckeyes (and generally any Defensive tackle) rolled through him for two straight years. WWAHT is not sold on Boren. For good reason. I think they sum it up nicely:

So how is Boren's "bad attitude" better than Boone's "raging, possibly stone-drunk bad attitude"?

If Boren, a guy who claims he left Michigan because he didn't want to hear curse words, has "an attitude with an edge" and is picking fights in practice with teammates, I've think OSU's got a problem rather than an interior line savior, as WWAHT points out. Still. The kid is very talented. If he can harness it, OSU's in business. But if he's still the practice field superstar and gametime bust he was at Michigan Ohio State could have some issues next to their center.

More trouble for the Buckeyes as Ray Small has gotten himself into some (rumored) academic trouble. Of note, Eleven Warriors is almost ready to lump Small in the pile 'o Buckeye underachievers like D’Andrea, Lydell Ross, Alex Boone and others.

College Football

Doc Saturday takes an early peak at Nebraska, and seems to think the Huskers are hurtling toward The Leap. What that Leap is, wellllll, I'm not quite sure. Nebraska should dominate a fairly soft Big XII North, but much like football revenues, there's a big talent gap between Nebraska and Texas in the Big XII South.

"Spartans Continue In-State Recruiting Dominance" - Delusion is a dish best served Green.

Fluff piece on MSU's recruiting this year.

Tailgating with the Vol Navy in Knoxville? - Paul Westerdawg is trolling for a Vol Navy tailgate invite. Can't go wrong here. The musses and I are debating a Tennessee trip this year, so if that happens, you'll see a similar posting here.

The Tennessee Coaches Meet - MONTE KIFFIN: [Wakes up suddenly.] Who are all you? GET OFF MY LAWN! (awesome).

Gobbler County, SBN's fantastic Virginia Tech blog, asks and answers 20 questions facing the Hokies and ACC football for 2009. Great stuff.

Doc Saturday takes a look at the "Team of the Decade" and makes his picks. Can't object to the Vincesanity Texas team at No. 1.

College Basketball

Harrison Barnes does not have nice things to say about Kentucky - The country's No. 1 recruit does not appear to be a big fan of John Calipari or Kentucky. Doesn't affect Michigan in anyway, but damn.