SB Nation - Obi Ezeh

Michigan preview

BoilerTMill — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:59:54 -0000

It has come to this. All of the dreams we have of playing in a bowl this football season come down to winning in Ann Arbor. Doing so would be the first such victory since Griese was at quarterback. I don't mean Brian in the late 90's for the Wolverines either. Our favorite taco-loving announcer was Purdue's quarterback on October 15, 1966 when we won 22-21 in Ann Arbor.

It is a difficult position to be in, but I wouldn't have it any other way. When I was in school, I always tackled the hardest projects first. I knew if I could finish them, everything else would be easy. That is what we face now. Winning at Michigan is the most difficult of our remaining three games. Win, and we have a better chance to win the final two games. Lose, and it is all about building for next year.

Before the season, this was the only loss I had put in sharpie, as the Boiled Sports guys say. I even gave us a chance against Ohio State at home because we play the Buckeyes well and we were at home. Michigan is quite different. In the three victories over Michigan I have personally witnessed (1996, 2000, 2008) we have had to hang on until the final play in each one. Don't even get me started on our visits to Ann Arbor, which have gone as follows:

1969: L 20-31

1972: L 6-9

1974: L 0-51

1975: L 0-28

1978: L 6-24

1980: L 0-26 (This loss cost us the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl that season)

1982: L 21-52

1983: L 10-42

1985: L 0-47

1989: L 27-42

1991: L 0-42

1993: L 10-25

1995: L 0-5

1999: L 12-38 (Our other four losses that season were by a touchdown or less)

2001: L 10-24

2003: L 3-31 (This also cost us the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl)

2007: L 21-48

That is 17 straight losses at the Big House. In six of those games we didn't even score a single point. Kyle Orton, Drew Brees, Mark Herrman, and Jim Everett never even came close to a win. Shoot, Rick Trefzger in 1995 came closer than any of them. This is what we have to look forward to on Saturday. There is good news though: Joey Elliott led a pair of touchdown drives in the last two minutes during our last visit, so he had a better game in half a quarter than most Purdue quarterbacks.

A rare close game by Purdue at the Big House.

2009 Record: 5-4, 1-4 Big Ten

2008 Record: 3-9, 2-6 Big Ten

Bowl Result: none

Blog Representation: MGoBlog, MVictors, Varsity Blue, Michigan Sports Center, iBlog for Cookies, Maize'n'Brew, Maize & Blue Nation

Series with Purdue: Michigan leads 41-13-0

Last Purdue win: 11/1/2008 at Purdue 48-42

Last Michigan win: 10/13/2007 at Michigan 48-21

It is hard to believe that Michigan started 4-0, but their one win since came in a D-1AA exhibition against Delaware State. Even more unbelievably, they got drilled by an awful Illinois team last week. I can't figure this team out right now. They haven't even been competitive the last two weeks against two teams (Penn State and Illinois) they have historically dominated.

Michigan offense:

The key to any victory this time around will be stopping the Wolverines in the first quarter. Michigan has scored 111 points this season it the first quarter of their nine games. By comparison, they have just 28 third quarter points in that time. If we can prevent them from jumping on us early we have a chance. I am also encouraged that they run a similar offensive style to Oregon. Our defense did a good job of stopping the Ducks (remember, 17 of the 38 points given up were because of turnovers) and Oregon has better personnel running it.

We will definitely see two quarterbacks. Tate Forcier (107-193-5) has nine touchdowns and 1,429 yards passing. He is by far the bigger passing threat. Denard Robinson (11-22-4) has two touchdowns and 179 yards passing. With four interceptions in 22 attempts we want him to throw. Make no mistake. This is by far a run first team. Robinson has rushed for 287 yards and five touchdowns while Forcier has 214 and two scores.

Even though we won last year, we couldn't stop an offense that had struggled all year. They have been more successful this season, so we had better hope we have improved in that area. Brandon Minor (332-5) had a field day against us, going for a career high 155 yards and three scores, but he has been battling injuries of late. Carlos Brown (465-4) leads the team in rushing, but Michigan is at its best when it is spreading the ball around in the running game. Vincent Smith (208-1) and Michael Shaw (181-2) have been known to get in on the action too.

While Michigan's passing game isn't highly productive, it is balanced. Martavious Odoms (22-272-1) is the leading receiver, but Greg Mathews (18-204-1), Kevin Koger (15-211-2), Junior Hemingway (13-233-2), and Darryl Stonum (12-189-1) provide balance across the board. Roy Roundtree, yes that Roy Roundtree, has produced 6 catches for 136 yards and a score.

Michigan has had some issues of late with the offensive line. The unit has given up 19 sacks on the season, and has had some trouble opening holes for the running game. This is not a hulking line like Wisconsin's last week. Four of five starters are under 300 pounds, while Stephen Schilling is the biggest guy at 304 pounds. We should have some room to operate and be disruptive with our defensive line this week.

Michigan Defense:

This is where Purdue has struggled historically. They have been unable to generate any points against the Wolverines. In the four games in which Purdue topped 20 points during this streak most of them came after game was well decided. It is not so much that Michigan has had a lights out defense in that time. It has just been that Purdue has been unable to do anything against it.

Our offensive line could have its hands full with Brandon Graham at the end position., Graham has 6.5 sacks on the season, 17.5 tackles for loss, and is generally a disruptive force in the defensive backfield. Defensive tackle Ryan Van Bergen (32 tackles, four sacks) can also cause some problems. Michigan typically goes with a 3-4 set as opposed to the 4-3's we have seen most of the year. That means faster linebackers will be on the field, but there could be more room to run.

Obi Ezeh is the most active of those linebackers, leading the team with 63 tackles. Stevie Brown (55 tackles), Jonas Mouton (53 tackles) and Craig Roh the the remaining linebackers. It is an interesting mix of youth and experience as Ezeh, Mouton, and Brown are seniors while Roh is a true freshman.

Michigan has had some problems in the secondary. Donovan Warren is a solid cornerback with three interceptions, but they are hurting from the loss of Boubacar Cissoko, who was dismissed form the team before last week's game against Illinois. Troy Woolfolk and Michael Williams man the safety positions, but neither has an interception this season.

Michigan should be more vulnerable to the running game than Wisconsin. Illinois went nuts on the ground last week, and they had no discernable running game until two weeks ago. Their pass defense has been suspect as well. If we can limit turnovers and get back to moving the ball we might have a chance.

Michigan Special Teams:

Behold Zoltan, destroyer of worlds! Zoltan Mesko, aside from having the coolest name in the Big Ten, is a pretty good punter averaging almost 45 yards per kick. It's not like we have a punt return game anyway, so we should get ready to field deep kicks.

Jason Olesnavage is a decent kicker, hitting on 8 of 9 field goals with a long of 44. Bryan Wright is actually a kickoff specialist apart from Olesnavage and Mesko. He is holding teams to about 22 yards per return. Michigan's return game itself is pretty dangerous. We all know what Odoms did to us last year. Stonum has a kickoff return for a touchdown. Also of note, Graham has a blocked punt returned for a score, but it was against Delaware State.

Intangibles:

Do I really need to point it out? The Boiled Sports guys and I discussed how a new coaching staff and new players can make a difference. They do not have the history of the 17 game losing streak on them. The truth is that it hasn't mattered. Every team we have taken up there, with different players, coaches, and philosophies, has gotten drilled for the past 43 years. I gave up two years ago when I went to the game and saw us fall behind 48-7 to a team that got worked by a 1-AA squad. This team has reached a rare level for me. I won't believe we can win there until I see it happen. I held the same attitude toward Notre Dame Stadium until 2004, but even then we had a series of close losses leading up to that win. There is no such history here.

Michigan has ownership over us on their home field rarely seen in college football. It is not that they have won 17 straight. They have done it with just two games being remotely close. Yes we have had some bad teams in this streak, but we have had some very good teams (1999, 2001, and 2003 were all in the top 15 at kickoff) get drilled in Ann Arbor. Technically in 2007 we were ranked at game time, so we have taken a ranked team in our last four trips to the Big House and been outscored 141-46. That is even with two meaningless touchdowns late in our last game.

The numbers are just not there to make me believe we can suddenly turn it around. Right now, I feel more confident about winning in any other venue in the Big Ten, maybe even the country, than I do about winning in Ann Arbor.

Keys to the Game for Purdue:

Catch the football
Limit turnovers
Limit special teams mistakes
Play against the run like we did against Oregon
Don't crap ourselves like we always do in Ann Arbor.

Agony of Defeat: There Will Certainly Be Better Days

SCM — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 15:53:58 -0000

First and foremost, hats off to Penn State. They came out and executed, played mistake-free football, took advantage of Michigan's numerous errors and put this game away when they got the opportunity to. Again, when someone comes in and does that, you have to acknowledge that. That said, it's still difficult to couch a game like this... yes we were throughly outplayed and yes I was exactly right when I said this:

Looking at our defense, I'm concerned about the secondary, you're concerned about the secondary, hell all of us are downright worried about the secondary (I mean, 3rd and @#$%@# 24!!!!!).

The question was whether JoePa and company would throw rock. They didn't for the most part. They came up with a gameplan that basically put Michigan's linebackers in positions where they were in single coverage mismatches and gave Clark easy throws which to his credit he made look even easier. They saw that our secondary was the straggling wildebeest of the heard and they did what you're supposed to do to straggling wildebeests. Perfect gameplan. Stevie Brown and Obi Ezeh were victimized repeatedly without a single iota of safety help. It got to the point where I and several others near me in the stands were pointing it out a solid 5 seconds before the snap, and yet no adjustments were made. Elsewhere, Donovan Warren was giving approximately a 30 yard cushion when a screen was blatantly obvious. Penn State basically ran three plays yesterday: a counter, a WR screen where God's Gift would split wide and block a corner who was usually giving a 10 yard cushion anyway, and up-the-seem routes against linebackers. They converted on all accounts and that was all she wrote. Was Penn State a vastly better and talented team? Well in terms of their offense vs our back seven, yes. Everywhere else? Eh, not really.

The weather wasn't really cold and bad until we came out after halftime and apparently had learned nothing about what PSU planned to do and they quickly extended the lead to put pressure on the Michigan offense. Suddenly I started to notice the rain a little more at that point... go figure. Quick aside, honestly who designs ponchos with short sleeves? I'm content to be dry everywhere except from the elbow down? Really? Secondly, I would give anything for us to have punched that blocked punt into the endzone, there was still eons of time in the game and the crowd (well, allow me to rephrase, the actual fans that still remained with most of the second half to go) was dying for anything to set them on fire again. Unfortunately it was just not meant to be.

Miscellaneous

- If I was a Penn State fan, I'm certain I would've been saying angry things when my coach decided to punt from the opposing team's 33 YARDLINE, holy bejeezus. It was almost as if JoePa was saying, "Oh yeah? Top that Kirk Ferentz!"

- Boy does Daryll Clark lock on to receivers. When they're wide open against our secondary it works just fine, but the few times we did manage to actually, you know, cover he looked downright mediocre trying to go through a progression. I mean, he's clearly not Anthony Morelli, but if Ohio State manages to lock down in coverage I think it'll be a long day for Mr. Clark.

- So when is it legal to have 76 men on the field on defense? No seriously, how could any official have missed that call? That it happened on Denard's mind-blowingly-bad interception made it even worse. I have no idea where he was throwing that ball and likely neither does he, but uh, Penn State had half their team on the field still when the ball was snapped and somehow did not get flagged for it. This was the only other point in the game where I felt we were running the offense at the pace we needed to by the way.

- Oh and yes, ANOTHER "five men in the backfield" penalty on Michigan. This is insanity. Notre Dame does that on every snap, I'm not joking.

- Alabama needed two blocked FGs to get by Tennessee? Can't wait for Iowa and Alabama to lock horns in what promises to be a 2-0 game with 14 blocked kicks. You know, when everyone gets all over Boise State's case because they "didn't look impressive enough in a win" then you have to do likewise when a BCS school does the same thing. #1 team in the blogpoll? Uh, no.

- Way to go State... you were going to end the Big Ten's nightmare of having an undefeated Iowa and then you go and do that, no really, well done.

- Junior Hemingway's injury was downright ugly, right in front of our seats and though I haven't seen a replay yet, it looked horrible. He has been star-crossed since stepping on campus. Also, was Warren blocked into him or did he trip? Martavious Odoms also looked dinged and wasn't much of a factor after that opening drive. Losing Molk again really killed momentum (and yes, safety snap blur blur blur). Donovan Warren clearly tweaked something though he stayed on the field, and Tate Forcier was holding that right arm pretty gingerly several times walking off the field. Sigh.........

Offense

- So uh, what happened after that first drive fellas? Anyone? Anyone care to explain to me why we pretty much abandoned what we were doing there? I mean, that was machine-like, the pace was perfect, and Penn State was hopeless to stop it. Then we start going 5-wide and trying to keep our QBs in the pocket to make throws? This made sense in what way? I loved the two back set and quick throws, but apparently the coaching staff didn't. This team is so much better when they go into "jet mode" or whatever you want to call it where they push the pace and make short high percentage passes and zone-read runs.

- End of the first half... You simply cannot spike that ball, you cannot. Tremendous error in coaching. There was more than enough time to get set and run a play, a TD would've really been a boost heading into the locker room. Arg I was furious. The clock stopped for some reason down there several plays before, naturally we were given no explanation, but there should've been about 6 less seconds methinks. I'm sure it had the PSU faithful howling. Even if they had gotten the clock right, we would've had time to run a play into the endzone and still kick a FG if it didn't connect.

- Penn State had 18 first downs... Michigan? 17. I wouldn't have believed that at first either.

- 3rd down conversions? 3 of 15. Definitely believed that one.

- Lots of people like to say TOP doesn't matter... bull@#%, this offense needs as many attempts as possible, and when it holds the ball for all of 10 minutes in the second half, that's not enough.

- I'm going to just estimate that there were six drops that probably would've accounted for at least 80 yards out there... Usually sure handed Kevin Koger really had an off day as did Kelvin Grady. Tate (and actually Denard as well) made some great throws that the receivers just have to bring in, regardless of the rain.

- Between the drops, four* turnovers, and a vintage Jermaine Gonzalez safety we made enough self-inflicted mistakes to overcome. That asterisk is for Denard's interception which should've been a nice automatic first down for the Maize n' Blue by the by. Tate had time in the pocket, though their linebackers made a number of very solid plays on his roll-outs and improvised-hop-around-the-backfield plays. The Penn State D was solid, but they weren't wreacking havoc and disrupting what we were trying to do. Of course, you certainly can't fault a defense for doing what they were supposed to do. They made solid tackles and avoided making mistakes that let Michigan hit a home-run to get back into the game.

- It annoys me how easily we seem to lose track of the running game, Minor and Brown combing for 20 carries just is not enough. Tate having 14 rushes is just way too many. Carlos Brown's fumble was in front of the opposite endzone so I didn't see much of it, but I'm sure it was horrifyingly bad. Regardless, we abandoned the running game FAR too early in this football game... again.

- Backed up on our own goal-line we did the same thing we did at Iowa, which was a non-sensical run wide and two pocket pass attempts... that series of play calls made exactly ZERO sense.

- I'm ok with Denard Robinson getting a designated series, but this is how it should go: "Denard, we have two pass plays for you to run along with the usual compliment of running plays. Both pass plays feature one read, if that guy is not open you take off. Got it? Good, go get em." Seriously, eliminate a side of the field for him, roll him out and have him make short simple throws. That's it, period, done. Don't ask the kid to do more right now.

Defense

via www.morasclass.com

- Our secondary is in shambles. It's not a simple question of trying to cover up one weak position, and we cannot overcome it right now. I don't know what else to say.

- How did we not adjust to that screen against the soft coverage and the seem routes against linebackers?? They didn't exactly disguise either of those plays.

- Boubacar Cissoko saw the field again, and apparently thought it was a good idea to taunt the Penn State bench prior to a big 3rd down... it worked out wonderfully as they connected (AGAIN.... /Valenti) for a TD. Sigh. Not at all what we need right now.

- I continue to be awfully impressed with how well our D-line has played, Van Bergen and Roh in particular have really been tremendous surprises this season. Van Bergen made one of the better plays of the year on a Penn State third down screen that would've gone for acres of yardage if he didn't fight through three blocks to get to the ball carrier. It was a great call by Penn State and just a better play by Van Bergen. Unfortunately there weren't too many other instances of that combination.

- When Penn State's defensive players tackle someone, they don't eventually do it 4 yards after contact... Our tackling has regressed as the year has gone on. We make contact and then get dragged for extra yardage far too often.

Special Teams

- Pretty terrible kick coverage to open the second half...

- We blocked another punt, yay.

Overall

So 5-3 when many predicted a 7-5ish year (or 8-4 if you're yours truly), it's do-able, but considerably more difficult sitting here right now than it was three weeks ago. This team is undoubtedly better than last year in many ways, but they are not immune to the type of mistakes that were commonplace last season. I am concerned though that we've struggled so much in conference play so far. If Tate goes down, we're in enormous trouble.

While the Iowa game in particular was one we let slip away and the Michigan State game was a hard fought loss, this was neither. We got thumped yesterday. This is particularly concerning considering that we're now 1-3 in our last four and that "one" was, well we all know what it was. This team is in a tailspin right now. Yes we're still ridiculously young, we're still so terribly thin on defense, etc, but uh, suddenly that "house money" everyone talked about is gone. There needs to be some coaching done now to get this team where it needs to be. Where is that, you ask? It's 7-3 heading to Wisconsin. There is no excuse to drop a game to Illinois, a win there places us in a bowl and that monkey is thrown off the back. It, quite simply, is a must win. Zook is an appallingly bad coach, there's no excuse there. The Purdue game is looking tougher now than it did at any point in the last several weeks and given our inability to stop a pass, I'm more concerned about it. Frankly though, we need to start beating some teams that are above the level of MAC squads. The ND win was huge, but we haven't replicated that level of play since.

I really, really, really want to see us pound the football. We have far too much talent at running back to let them only see the football 20 times a game. Minor and Brown need to be the plow-horses for this offense right now, and there's nothing wrong with that. Tate is trying to do too much out there on the field as well. I can understand why, he started off on fire, but I think we might be trying to do too much with him. Go back and look at the gameplans from the Western and ND games, I'd simplify the offense back to those core plays and just run with it. Let Tate make the short throws and easy reads rolling out of the pocket that he's so good at and call it a day. Work in the occasional deep shot and that's your passing game. Again, Minor and Brown need to touch the ball about twice as often as they are currently.

Unfortunately I have absolutely no solutions for our defense at this time, how we ever let ourselves get into this position from a recruiting standpoint is a travesty of great magnitude.

This disappointing performance needs to be put in the rearview mirror and this team needs to get ready for the finishing stretch that starts with Illinois next Saturday. I know that there will be better days ahead, but we have some serious work to do right now to get there, and the Illinois game is a no-questions-asked must win.

GO BLUE!

Malicious Internet Interrogation With Maize-n-Brew

BSD — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:00:28 -0000

It's Michigan week, so you know what that means. Five days of listening to talk about "streaks" and "WE PWN PENN STATE". As always, we reached out to a Michigan blogger to come sit on the BSD hotseat, and this week our Huckleberry is Dave from Maize-n-Brew. Enjoy, and go check out Maize-n-Brew where I'll answer some questions for Dave later on.

Things started out hot for Rich's boys with that win over Notre Dame. But now they're 1-2 and almost 0-3 in conference play. How has Michigan's season compared to your expectations so far?

Not to toot my own horn too loudly, but the team is exactly where I saw it being. 5-2 heading into the Penn State game. I think the biggest challenge for Michigan fans this season hasn't been getting on the bandwagon, it's been tempering expectations. All of a sudden we've got this score-o-matic offense, and we don't know what to do with ourselves. The offense has been so good we've been willing to say "we'll outscore [the other team]" in every game, totally forgetting that our defense is just as bad as we feared it'd be going into the season. Overall, I think the coaching has been excellent. GERG has fashioned a mediocre defense out of three players (Brandon Graham, Donovan Warren, and Mike Martin), duck tape, and styrofoam. Honestly, I thought the D would be much, much worse than it's performed. Offensively, we're light years ahead of last year, but still in that learning phase. There are still a lot of mistakes on offense and the passing game went backwards the last two games. The offense is better than I thought it'd be, but the team itself is right where I predicted.

Against Iowa, Rodriguez benched Tate Forcier in favor of Denard Robinson and it looked like Forcier wasn't too happy about it. Last week against Delaware State Forcier only played one series. Is there a quarterback controversy brewing?

Mike, when did you start writing for the Detroit Free Press? There is no controversy. Forcier is the starter and got benched at the end of the Iowa game because he was awful. I completely disagree with everyone who bitched and moaned that Forcier should've been back in the game for the last series against Iowa. No. He shouldn't have. Tate was banged up. He was clearly rattled. He had a mild concussion. He was making very, very bad decisions and should've left that game with at least three picks. He needed to be benched at that point. But here's the thing...

He's a freshman. They make mistakes. Look at Tebow, McCoy, Bradford, Henne, Young, or Troy Smith. I'm not comparing Tate to these guys, but I'm naming them to prove a point. As freshmen these uber-quarterbacks made game-costing mistakes. Why? Becuase they're freshmen. Matt Barkley's going to gack one up shortly too. A benching is part of the learning curve and I expect Tate to play much better at home than under the lights at Kinnick. Kinnick does strange things to visiting quarterbacks.. cough... Daryll Clark.... cough.... So, there's really nothing to read into Tate sitting. He needed a week to rest his shoulder. Frankly, Robinson needed the reps because if Tate goes down, Denard's gotta go in. Unless Robinson suddenly, and unexpectedly, becomes a polished passer he's going to be used in a back-up and change of pace role. Tate is the unquestioned starter.

Last year's game between these teams introduced MINOR RAGE into our vocabulary. But Brandon Minor has been banged up off and on this year. Is he healthy for this game? And are there any other injuries of note?

Minor should start this game and is, by all accounts, as healthy as he's been since fall camp started. Sitting the last few games and limited practice has allowed his injured ankle to heal (at least Michigan fans hope so). That's good news for us, bad for you. Against Iowa, Minor had plenty of power and steamrolled several Hawkeye defenders en route to an excellent, yet limited game. As with all ankle injuries, you're fine until you have to make a cut. That was the big difference two weeks ago, he couldn't really do that. Two more weeks to heal? I think he'll be cutting fine and will be one of the keys to the game. Likewise, Carlos Brown should be back in the backfield along side Minor. Brown suffered a concussion in practice two weeks ago and should be fine for Saturday's game. Another huge return will be Center David Molk, who has been ouot since the Indiana game after suffering a broken foot against EMU. Molk is the heart and soul of our offensive line, so if he's able to play, it'll be a huge boost for the team. The downside is he's had a week to practice, so he might not be at 100%. On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan will again be without sophomore cornerback Boubacar Cissoko who has been suspended indefinitely for various violations of team rules (including academics). Rodrgiuez has said that the team is monitoring Cissoko, and it is up to him whether he's going to put in the work to get back on the field.

That Michigan defense...I dunno, man. They made Jimmy Clausen look like a Heisman contender. And Indiana rushed for almost 200 yards. Is it Greg Robinson and the coaching scheme? Is it an issue of talent level? Is it injuries? What does Michigan have to do to get better?

It's a talent issue. Michigan is simply barren at linebacker and empty in the secondary after Warren. Personally, as stated previously, I think GERG has done an excellent job with this group. Look at the defensive line. I thought we were toast at DT after Mike Martin, and GERG has turned Greg Banks and Renaldo Sagesse into prominent contributors. Look at Stevie Brown, a year removed from being the player most likely to allow a 70 yard touchdown, he's our best linebacker and should at least get consideration for All Big Ten Honorable mention. Michigan's defense plays very hard and is very young, but the youth in the secondary and the constant stream of mistakes out of veterans Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton (who really, really should be better than he's playing and I can't figure out why he isn't) at linebacker are consistenly breaking down on third and long. Hence, the issues on D. If you're looking for an achilles, it's linebackers or safeties covering Tight Ends. Iowa smoked us on that. Coverage on the play fake or the TE going into the flats has been terrible, and it's just a reaction thing. The players have to identify that better and simply haven't. Better players over the next few years will fix that, but it's something Michigan fans just have to deal with this season and next.

I'm assuming you've watched a Penn State game or two this year. Where do you think the Wolverines can exploit them?

You know, I'm not really sure on this one. I feel the Penn State secondary isn't quite up to snuff and the DE's are a tad weaker than they've been in recent years. Plus, if Sean Lee's out this week, bonus. In the running game I think Michigan has to attack the edges quickly and someone has to get out on Bowman immediately. Michigan possesses a quick, strong and athletic offensive line, so I think they can attack the edges with the read option. Up the gut? Not so much. I was very impressed by PSU's Defensive Tackles. In the passing game, I see a lot of Tight End Kevin Koger both as a viable pass option and as a decoy. Of the linebacking group, I'm not sure who will be covering him. But with Koger in the pattern or as a decoy/blocker it means one less linebacker at the edge to deal with. I think Koger is probably the #2 or #3 TE in the conference pass catching and blocking, so he'll play a big role. Next, look for Stonum and Hemingway to get deep on Penn State's corners and safeties. That'll open things up in the middle and may, by themselves, be open for some deep bombs.

I'm sure you're wondering why I haven't said "w00t we'llz 0wnz0rz da PSU Offensive Line!" Well, our pass rush hasn't been great outside of Brandon Graham and teams have been running very, very well against us. So, I think that match up is a push.

On the flip side, what scares you to death about this Penn State team?

The Linebackers, the Defensive Tackles and Evan Royster. Really. I've never been a big fan of Daryll Clark's. Mostly because he's shown a propensity for gacking up games against good competition. Interceptions. Fumbles. Bad reads. But Royster scares the shit out of me. On defense, Michigan's running game depends on neutralizing the center of the Defensive front and getting to the backers. I just don't see that happening consistently against Bowman and company. We'll have some great gainers, but I'll be surprised if Michigan can do it consistently.

Care to make a prediction? The Nittany Lions of BSD could use some red meat.

mmmmm..... red meat..... That makes me hungry. Think I'll order a cheese steak from Mr. Spots with chili cheese fries. mmmmmm..... What were we talking about? Oh yeah. Predictions. Back in May I predicted this one to be a Penn State victory. On paper, it should be. But Michigan's glorified scrimage against Delaware State gave the Wolverines an extra week of practice and allowed their starters to get healthy. Something Michigan was not able to do in previous years. I still hate the concept of a D1-AA opponent anywhere on the schedule, but the timing of the "bye" is really beneficial to Michigan this year. I think Michigan wins this in a close game. I could be wrong, probably am, but a year removed from 3-9 and sitting at 5-2, I'm playing with house money.

Michigan: by the numbers and key contributors.

John M (The Crimson Quarry) — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 15:00:19 -0000

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Tate Forcier has excelled as a true freshman.

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The Michigan Wolverines, like the Hoosiers, are 3-0, thanks to home blowouts against two MAC schools, including common opponent Western Michigan, and a close home win against Notre Dame, by far the highest quality opponent either team has played this season. Yesterday, I linked to IU's NCAA "executive summary page, and here is Michigan's. Thanks in part to an absurdly run-dominated offense against Eastern Michigan last week, Michigan is sporting a Navy-like average of 276 yards per game. Most impressively, Michigan's leading rusher, Carlos Brown, averages only 79 yards per game. Already, four Wolverines have exceeded the 100 yard mark for the season, including quarterbacks Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson. Michigan ranks only 97th in production from the passing game at 168 yards per game, but that is a function of the lopsided nature of two of Michigan's first three games. In Michigan's only competitive game, the 38-34 win over Notre Dame, Forcier was 23-33 passing for 240 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Forcier's quarterback rating is #32 in Division I-A. Michigan has posted top 30 numbers in total offense and scoring offense. On defense, the Wolverines have allowed 358 yards per game, but only 19 points per game. Against Western Michigan, nearly all of WMU's positive yardage came after the Wolverines had jumped out to a big lead. On the other hand, Eastern Michigan moved the ball reasonably well against Michigan, and the Notre Dame game was a shootout. Michigan protects the quarterback reasonably well, probably in no small part because Forcier and Robinson both run well, so IU's pass rush game will be strength against strength.

Who are the key individuals?

Tate Forcier, QB. Forcier became a household name in week 2 of the season with his impressive play (described above) in Michigan's upset of Notre Dame. He has played very well as a passer (again, see above) and running the ball (30/112 and a touchdown).

Denard Robinson, QB. Robinson is only 2-8 passing, but has run for 155 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 18 carries.

Carlos Brown, RB. Michigan has spread the ball around, but Brown is Michigan's leading rusher with 238 yards and is averaging 8.8 yards per carry.

Brandon Minor, RB. Minor has been bothers by injuries, but ran for 106 yards and a touchdown against Notre Dame on only 16 carries.

Darryl Stonum returned a kickoff for a touchdown against Notre Dame.

Michigan's receiving yards are even more widely dispersed than its rushing yards. Michigan has 7 receivers who have caught 5 or more passes but no receiver has caught more than 7. Junior Hemingway leads the Wolverines with 110 receiving yards and over 18 yards per catch, plus two touchdowns. Kevin Koger also has caught two touchdown passes.

None of Michigan's defenders stand out statistically yet. Linebackers Obi Ezeh and Stevie Brown are Michigan's leading tacklers, and Brown has 3.5 tackles for loss. Michigan has sacked the opposing quarterback only three times this year, and Ben Chappell has been sacked only once, so the IU offensive line will have a chance to show that its improved protection is for real.

I'm taking a bit of heat in the comments for my realistic/pessimistic take on the game in the Mgopodcast. Don't let that fool you. I am surprisingly optimistic about this game, but that is based on hunch, not on any objective evidence. All of the objective evidence points toward a Michigan win, hence my 40-21 prediction on the podcast. Still, this is the first time since 1967 that IU has been undefeated when playing Michigan. In 1967, IU won 27-20 (IU's most recent win in Ann Arbor) and ultimately won the Big Ten and played in the Rose Bowl. That would be a wildly optimistic prediction for this IU team. On the other hand, in 1967, IU was 9 years removed from its last winning season and hadn't won more than 3 games in a season in 8 years. That's what's fun about being undefeated. It's easy to hope for the best.

Unit by Unit: Breaking Down Michigan Football's Defense Following Its Win Over Eastern Michigan

Maize n Brew Dave — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:54:55 -0000

We're running a little behind, so it's time to get into the Michigan Eastern Michigan Unit by Unit breakdown. We'll take a hard look at the players and the coaches for each particular unit on the team, and bring them in for a pat on the back or a wag of the finger. After we've looked at each position, we'll give you a final wrap on the team's play on Offense and Defense (Special Teams too!). If you're looking for more detail, game bullets are here, the wrap up is here, the boxscore is here, and the general AP recap is here. There are the links, so now let's take a good hard look at....

The Defense

Photo via John T. Greilick via Detroit News.com

Michigan had a statistically decent day against the Eagles. They allowed below 300 total yards, giving up 106 passing yards and 179 yards on the ground. Eastern only posted 17 points, and 7 of those were the direct result of a really awful pick thrown by Denard Robinson. Plus, Michigan was without one of its starting linebackers and playing a coach that recruited a number of the players on Michigan's defense. So, it was a good day. Yes?

Yes. It was. While there will always be things you can nitpick (and we will, we will), the Defense seems to be playing alright. If I have a concern, it's that Michigan allowed Eastern to march down the field twice and put up 10 points early in the game. Most of that was on the ground. But the running game was something we always knew this defense would have trouble with. Before we get into the nitpicking, I think it's fair to say that before the season I told you this was what we'd get you would've taken this in a second.

Defensive Line

John T. Greilick via Detroit News.com

Overall a moderate day for the defensive line. At this point it’s clear that Mike Martin and Brandon Graham are the anchors of the group and should both vie for First Team All Big Ten status, if not All American status. Yes, I think Mike Martin (only a sophomore) is that good. The sackless Brandon Graham is only sackless because he’s facing double and triple teams on a regular basis (triple being TE/T and a rub from the TB). Even so he’s been about half a second from recording a number of sacks on the season. The eastern game was no exception. From these two the only concern was Martin tweaking a foot or a leg early in the game, though he did return. Otherwise, it was standard good to excellent performance from the pair, mixed in with the rare loss of discipline on a play here and there.

After Graham and Martin, Craig Roh and Ryan Van Bergen were passable to good on the afternoon. Roh is still a freshman and still prone to overpursuit and running himself out of position. He did show some great concentration on his interception, fending off a lineman at the last possible second to make the grab. Roh is at his best in the pass rush, but is (and will probably continue to) struggling with the run. Van Bergen on the other hand looks totally out of position at DT. He’s simply not built for it. Eastern routinely doubled him, blew him off the line, and opened a big ole running gap. One on one Ryan’s shown some great strength and speed, but when he’s contending with two linemen he’s going to lose that battle 99 times out of 100 and it seems Robinson’s scheme (at this this scheme) requires the DE/DT to be able to hold that ground.

Which brings us to Ronaldo Sagesse. The Wrecker from Québec….er. The French Wrench? Whatever… If there has been one defensive leap forward that the fanbase (and the coaches for that matter) weren’t expecting, it’s been Sagesse’s giant leap forward into being a pretty good DT. He’s clearly athletic, but now that he’s getting some real coaching… damn son. Two TFLs in limited playing time and the ability to handle double teams. You’ve gotta love it. Even Greg Banks, yes he of PS3 fame and inexplicably high player ratings, contributed at DT on Saturday. There’s something going on with the defensive line coaching that I’m really, really excited about. When Will Campbell, all world freshman Will Campbell, is barely scratching the playing time surface in favor of Sagesse and Banks, and those two aren’t just filling space but are contributing; you should be excited down the road.

(More after the jump....)

The Linebackers

It’s been said elsewhere, but the Big Ten’s suspension of Jonas Mouton basically on game day was bush league. I don’t condone what he did. He clearly hit Olsen. But if you’re going to suspend a player do it in a timely manner and let the team adjust for the player’s absence. It’s a small consolation that they did this with Purdue’s Zach Reckman. Still, minor annoyance.

It’s a minor annoyance because Mouton, like Obi Ezeh, has been passable at best at linebacker on the season. While Mouton is a better option than Kevin Leach out there at SLB, the tackle numbers were about the same and the mistakes were pretty similar. I know I’m being harsh, but the linebacking play hasn’t been very good for a bunch of retuning starters at LB. But enough about who didn’t play and back to who did.

Mouton’s fill in, Kevin Leach, wasn’t noticeable during my first watching of the game. His name was called a lot on tackles and he had 7 before the half. My initial impression was that the kid was alright. On a second/third watching, he wasn’t as good as I thought but wasn’t awful by any means. Most of his contact was made well beyond the line of scrimmage and his gap control was off. To his credit, Leach showed some decent wheels and found himself involved in or making a lot of tackles. He’s a little undersized, so perhaps that’s why he’s fast for the position. But his size is a bit of a detriment as Linemen locked onto him and drove him toward Ypsi. Mouton’s been pretty good at shedding blocks this season so there was clearly a dropoff in run support with Leach in. As Eastern really didn’t throw at Leach I can’t really gauge his usefulness in that capacity. Critiques aside, Leach is a friggin walk on. The fact that he was out there, contributing, is awesome. Where you can look at the glass half full regarding J.B. Fitzgerald or our other LB recruits, I look at it as half full. Depth is an issue, but the fact that Michigan can plug in a walk on at a critical position and not get torched as a result is a good thing. Congrats to Leach on a good game.

At MIKE, Ezeh had his usual meh kind of day. He continues to excel rushing the passer, continues to wait for contact on the run rather than engaging the hit, and continues to alternate good run support with bad gap reads. If there’s one thing you can say, Ezeh’s consistent. You know what you’re going to get. Ezeh’s not going to be a dominant middle linebacker at this point. It could happen, but the chances are fairly remote. He’s a good linebacker and I’m content with that. When he tackles, he wraps people up. When he blitzes he makes plays. He’s just not Chris Harris. And I’m cool with that.

Stevie Brown, again, had what I considered a decent day. He made some stops, played good coverage, wrapped up consistently. Brown success at his new position will be judged by how he handles the conference season, but so far he’s easily been the most consistent and arguably best linebacker on the field each game. Against Eastern he was aggressive, good in coverage, and attacked the ball carrier in space. If he was three inches taller and 50 pounds heavier he’d be all world. Right now, though, he’s pretty good and deserves some praise. J.B. Fitzgerald played. That’s about it.

John T. Greilick via Detroit News.com

The Secondary

Considering that the majority of Eastern’s yards came on the ground and they only posted on touchdown through the air, it’s hard to be too critical of the secondary. Boubacar Cissoko bounced back from a rough Notre Dame game to have an excellent game in coverage. Donovan Warren continued to be Donovan Warren, clearly showing that he is arguably the best cover corner in the Big Ten. Troy Woolfolk and Mike Williams were passable in coverage, and despite a mistake in coverage here and there (minor ones people, shading issues rather than "that looks like a run so why is the ball going over my head?" mistakes).

Run support, well, that was another matter. The only player in the group not to make a horrid tackling mistake was Donovan Warren, who spent a good portion of his day making run tackles he should’ve have needed to make. Cissoko froze on an open field tackle on Schmit, whiffed and allowed an additional 15 yards to a slow lanky white boy. It was reminiscent of Coner’s ole! on Stevie Brown in the spring game. Likewise Troy Woolkfolk came up to lay a big hit but forgot about the whole "wrap him up" thing allowing another ten yards. Overall, while the coverage was decent, the tackling in the secondary was very bad against the run and may be cause for concern. Watching the game, I think the secondary’s issues were more lack of focus and playing down to their competition rather than a systemic problem. I honestly think after battling Notre Dame’s receivers to the death, the secondary thought they could just pop Eastern’s players and they’d go down. Hopefully, this was a learning experience along those lines.

It should be noted that when Mike Williams went down, Jordan Kovacs again replaced him without issue. Whenever you can replace a safety mid game and not end up crying, it’s win win. Kovacs was basically invisible to me, other than the occasional thought of "who’s the melanin deficient dude in the secondary?" So far, Kovacs is easily the best of the many walkons on the team and has thus far proven himself to be a capable player. The real test of this theory will begin over the next few weeks as teams start to attack Michigan’s secondary with a little more frequency and try to isolate Kovacs, Williams and Woolfolk in the passing game. I can’t imagine a Big Ten Offensive Coordinator saying "Oh look, a walkon. Lets go after Warren instead."

For the game, yay! No Big Plays! Woo. Overall, it’s still too early to tell.

Special Teams

After an off game, Zoltan has returned to his normal self and is back to booming the ball. He booted 4 punts for a 45.5 average, including a 59 yarder. Not so bad. The field goal unit was barely used, but Jason Olesnavage was good on his only try and all his extra points. The return game was decent off the tee, but we garnered almost nothing off punts. Part of this had to do with Eastern shanking the ball. Part to do with our obvious attempts to block everything. And finally, part to do with our desire not to turn the ball over. I’m fine with this. Out coverage on kickoffs and punts was much better than against Notre Dame. I’m positive this had something to do with the quality of athletes we were facing, but overall a much, much better coverage game.

Unit by Unit: Breaking Down Michigan Football's Defense Following Its Win Over Notre Dame

Maize n Brew Dave — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 16:23:18 -0000

We're running a little behind, so it's time to get into the Michigan Notre Dame Unit by Unit breakdown. We'll take a hard look at the players and the coaches for each particular unit on the team, and bring them in for a pat on the back or a wag of the finger. After we've looked at each position, we'll give you a final wrap on the team's play on Offense and Defense (Special Teams too!). If you're looking for more detail, game bullets are here, the wrap up is here, the boxscore is here, and the general AP recap is here. There are the links, so now let's take a good hard look at....

The Defense

It's hard to put on a smilely face when your defense surrenders 34 points and 490 total yards, so we're not going to. The defense was not good. If you felt like saying awful, I wouldn't blame you. In terms of being fair, the Wolverines made some critical stops when they needed to. Over all, however, Weis and company had Michigan's number most of the day.

A picture is worth 2,200 words. via multimedia.detnews.com

The Defensive Line

With Notre dame in max protect most of the game, it wasn't going to be easy for Michigan to get pressure on Clausen. And they didn't. For the majority of the game Clausen was able to sit in the pocket and pick Michigan's secondary apart without anyone near him. Brandon Graham spent his entire day trying to split double teams or getting horse collared as he went around the left and right tackles. Even so, he was able to get some pressure and the occasional knock down of Clausen. Plus, he was stout in against the run, notching two TFLs. The day for the rest of the line was fairly muted. Craig Roh spent most of his day bull rushing his way out of position on sweeps and counters. Ryan Van Bergen and Brandon Herron were all but invisible. Mike Martin, like Graham, had two defenders in his way the entire game and got absolutely no pressure on Clausen. Ronaldo Sagesse played a little bit and faired decently. Other than that, nothing.

It's pretty clear from here out that teams will basically double the hell out of Graham and Martin and force Herron, Van Bergen and Roh to beat them. All three are undersized and got absolutely no pressure on Saturday. Maybe this is an aberration based on the quality of ND's offensive line, but I don't think so at this point. Because Michigan couldn't get any pressure on Clausen, or effectively stop the run, it forced the Wolverines to begin bringing the house on blitzes which resulted in some notable pressure (re: last ND offensive play) but also some huge wholes in the secondary. If Sagesse can start playing regularly, then yeah, that helps. But realistically, Herron, Van Bergen and Roh have to start getting pressure for this defense to be effective going forward. They weren't against Notre Dame, and the results are painfully obvious.

This was not a good performance.

(more after the jump.....)

The Linebackers

via mitheral.ca

Yeah. yeah. Kittens are Brian's thing. But you try finding a better metaphor for this group. Good lord were they bad. If Obi Ezeh wasn't getting caught out of position, Jonas Mouton was offering up chin music. Let's put it this way. Stevie Brown was our best linebacker. BY FAR. This guy is a converted safety who's time at Michigan is better known for his blunders than fine play. He was your best player. To his credit, this was not simply an issue of best by default. Brown was pretty damn good all things considered. He shot into the backfield and collected to TFLs. He forces a critical fumble. He didn't miss a tackle, and was excellent in space. Honestly, I'm starting to believe he's a legit linebacker. A horrid game against Eastern/State may dissuade me of this. But right now he's head and shoulders above Mouton and Ezeh.

Speaking of which. Lord. Bad gap play. Inability to shed blockers. Basically looking lost for most of the game. Roughing the passer. Etc... The majority of Notre Dame's 154 yards on the ground were directly attributable to poor linebacker play. Personally, I don't know what to make of it. All I know is that Michigan's linebackers were not the aggressors on most of their tackles, were flat footed at the point of contact, and only looked effective when they were told "Danny, I want that ball. Get me that ball." and turned loose on the blitz. And even then it was a little spotty. Something's gotta give soon. Notre Dame is not a rush first offense. If we play this way against pass based teams, God help us against power rushing teams like Penn State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, or Ohio State. But Dave, aren't some of those teams "spread" teams? Yeah, but they're all rush first teams with equal or better offensive lines (maybe not PSU, but they're huge so that evens out). If the linebackers can't start filling the proper gap and attacking the ball carrier rather than waiting for contact to comet to them, we're going to be in trouble.

The Secondary

via multimedia.detnews.com

I'm kind of at a loss to describe this. Boubocar Cissoko was awful. Just dreadful. Donovan Warren was decent, but I'm not anointing him Marlin Jackson II and I'm certainly not saying his performance warrants a high draft pick and loads of money. I thought he got away with a lot of defensive holding on the day. The second down pass on Notre Dame's final drive? Yeah. He's holding Tate's right arm the entire way. That said, for all but four plays (one of which was a TD that he was torched on) Warren ran with Notre Dame's receivers and basically planted himself in their helmets on each passing route. He's good, but play that game away from Ann Arbor and Warren's getting flagged fairly often.

Back to Boo Boo. He was alone the entire day against a guy that was faster, taller, older, and better than him all day. The results were not good. No safety help. No nothing. So you can write it up to growing pains. No. You can't. Boo Boo spent his entire day turning before he needed to. Opening his hips the wrong way on the cuts. Breaking from his back pedal way way way too soon. His tackling was mediocre at best.

Here's the thing. Boo Boo is a true sophomore. He'll get better or he'll get passed on the depth chart by Floyd or, hopefully, J.T. Turner. But he was going up against the best set of receivers he's going to see this year in his second game of the season after playing only a handful of games a year prior. I'm going write this up as a bad game for a kid with what I hope is a promising future. But he's going to need a lot of coaching after this game. Maybe he's gotten by on talent all this time and it's masked some deficiencies. It's possible. But right now he needs a lot of time in the film room and some heavy duty coaching.

Moving away from the corners and into the deep secondary, I have to admit I was very pleasantly surprised with the play of Michigan's safeties. Troy Woolfolk, Michael Williams, and later Jordan Kovacs played excellent. A reason for this may have been that Michigan was in deep cover for most of the game, but I thought they were pretty good. The two led the team with 8 tackles a piece, and had Williams not gone down with cramping, he probably would've been in the 10 tackle range.

If your question is "how can you be happy with 330+ yards in the air and the safeties?" the answer's simple. Michigan made Notre Dame earn the yards. Unlike last season, Notre Dame wasn't able to have one play drives. Sure, they gave up yards in chunks, but they didn't give up the bomb. There wasn't a "big play" per se. There were a lot of medium plays, but nothing crippling. The safeties were stout in the run game, especially when you consider just how bad the linebackers were, so they get some credit.

Overall, a decent day out of the safeties and an "Arg!" to "OMG Get me a gun!" day for the corners.

Special Teams

Rain = Pour. Special Teams were a mess too. Waaaaay too many long run backs on kickoff coverage. Zoltan Mesko was off all day as well, shanking a punt or two. A missed field goal from Jason oles....whatever. Defensive special teams were abysmal.

On the other side, the offensive special teams were generally okay (FGs not included). Darryl Stonum's run back was awesome and Michigan came close to breaking one or two other big runs. While Michigan's return game probably won them the game, their coverage almost lost it on a couple of occasions. There's plenty of work to be done.

Positional Matchup Ratings to Determine Outcome of Saturday's Michigan Notre Dame Game

Beauford — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 16:24:02 -0000

via i2.cdn.turner.com

This weekend, Notre Dame plays Michigan. You may have heard. Yesterday, I gave you a brief history of the rivalry, which I'm sure has been committed to memory by now. Today, I give you positional matchups in an attempt to see where this game is going to be won or lost. Let us begin.

Quarterback

Notre Dame

Notre Dame returns Jimmah Clausen fresh off completing 105% of his passes (the extra 5% is for love, which Jimmah pours into every pass) for a bazillion TD's against various WAC opponents. In all seriousness, the dude finally looked like the QB that he was expected to be, albeit against inferior competition. The third year in any program will do that to a guy. He's got a solid arm, but a little bit of a gunslinger attitude, throwing 17 INTS compared to 25 TD's. Like him or not, he's poised to have a big year, and if he can not be such an INT machine, could (gulp...going to do something I've never done before...agree with Lou Holtz) toss his hat in the ring for that ceremony in NYC.

Michigan

Michigan will start Forcier, and all indications point to him getting the vast majority of snaps with Denard-flashes mixed in accordingly. I look for Forcier to have a bigger role and a more traditional "starter" presence in this game due to what looks to be superior competition. Less time to mess around. I liked Tate's ability to keep plays alive, although I think he pulled it in to run a bit too soon on a few plays. If he continues to not turn the ball over and play smart, I think he'll do fine. And Denard is always a threat, as evidenced by the broken play magic that I've literally watched on loop 15 times in a row. Still, they are both Freshmen, and therefore not Junior Year former all world recruits.

Advantage: Notre Dame

More after the jump.

Running Back

Notre Dame

Ok, so Notre Dame's got Armando Allen who went for 76 yards against Nevada and didn't need to do much more due to Jimmah's air attack that, again, featured 105% accuracy. Last season he averaged 4.33 YPC, and the Irish running attack was ranked 44th in the country. This isn't a run-heavy team, but any coach will tell you that establishing a running game is paramount for the passing game. If going deep off play action is what ND wants to do, it's going to take a rolling running game to make it work. Allen isn't going to win this game on his own.

Michigan

Much like the QB situation, Michigan finds themselves in a "split role" situation with Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor. It looks like Minor is going to play after being listed as probable. The Notre Dame D line, to be detailed later, aren't exactly man-beasts up front and could be susceptible to the stylings of MINOR RAGE. With Brown and Shaw and Leetle Vincent Smith there to bounce it to the outside and provide that spark, the advantage...

Advantage Michigan

woo.

Wideouts

via nbcsportsmedia2.msnbc.com

Notre Dame

Michael Floyd averaged 47.7 yards per reception last game against Nevada. Golden Tate hauled in 3 catches for 59 yards. These are some fantastic numbers, but a quick look at the record shows that Nevada also clocked in last year with the 110th ranked pass defense in the country. So impressive as last game's numbers are, and they are impressive, I'm not sure they hold up against a team with a real-life pass defense. That being said, Floyd and Tate are both legitimate WR's who are good on the deep ball and have solid hands. They will present a problem.

Michigan

Hemingway is listed as doubtful (which provides a lot of literary jokes that I won't make. Yay liberal arts). He is Michigan's primary deep threat, based on last game, and will probably be replaced by Darryl Stonum, who has underwhelmed in the Spring. That ain't good. However, the emergence of Kelvin "last seen missing layups" Grady and the presence of Odoms and Matthews makes the loss manageable. If Stonum can run the routes, I expect he'll be targeted. What's been rumored shaky has been his hands, so, well, god help us. This offense relies more on the leetle slot dudes anyways, so the loss of Hemingway doesn't necessarily mean death. But it ain't good.

Advantage Notre Dame

Tight Ends

Notre Dame

Kyle Rudolph caught 4 balls for 29 yards last game. Weis does utilize the Tight End in the receiving game, so Rudolph will have to be accounted for. According to the House Rock Built, he's definitely more a receiving TE than a blocker. He'll be one of those guys Clausen hits on a 3rd and short that causes me to throw things.

Michigan

Kevin Koger's Catch (via davidrizik)

I think Koger is more athletic, and like much of Rodriguez's offense, he seems designed to run seam routes and look for big plays. That waggle last game was a thing of beauty. Rudolph seems more like a grind the chains type, while Koger seems more the big play type. Both important, both pretty good...

Advantage Push

Offensive Line

Notre Dame

As has been detailed here before, Notre Dame returns 4 starters on an offensive line that features more 5-stars than a meeting of the joint chiefs. Over the past 2 games - including last year's bowl game, obvs - they've given Clausen enough time to sling 9 TD's. With Clausen taking the expected leap into Junior year awareness, and a line that might actually provide him some protection, the passing game of ND could be pretty fierce. That said, Weis has really tinkered with the left side of the line, and that's exactly where Brandon Graham lives. Given that Rudolph isn't much of a blocking TE, Michigan could get pressure with 4 rushing.

Michigan

Well, the line looked pretty good against Western. Molk had some dumb holding calls, but in all, a pretty even day. I'm not terribly concerned with Notre Dame's defensive line, especially given that Nevada racked up 118 yards of rushing, and had their starter average 6.3 yards per carry. Given that Nevada was hovering around the top of the NCAA last year in rushing, this can be explained away, but Michigan's offensive line is going to be bigger and meaner than the Nevada line that had Notre Dame on skates for a good portion of the game.

Advantage Michigan but not by much

via 4.bp.blogspot.com

Defensive Line

Notre Dame

Well, I kind of blew it up there in the O-line section, but yeah, they didn't look good against Nevada. I think they're going to have their hands full with the Michigan offensive line, especially if Michigan decides to employ MINOR RAGE runs up the gut.

Michigan

The defensive line is probably the strong suit of this Michigan defense, featuring already ferocious Brandon Graham, developingly ferocious Mike Martin (GET IN THE CAR), and an impressively ferocious for being a true freshman and such Craig Roh. If Michigan can get their pass rush out of the front 4, they will do well. If they need to bring in a LB or Safety, they will be gambling.

Advantage Michigan

Linebackers

Notre Dame

Toryan, Scott and Brian Smith (not related AFAIK) make up the corp of this experienced unit. These two combined for 8 tackles, four of which were losses. Freshman all-everything recruit Manti Te'o will play as well, and while he had a "welcome to NCAA" type game against Nevada, he is still a presence to be dealt with. As a corp they are fast and experienced, and will definitely provide more of a challenge than WMU's. Missed blocks against this unit will equal immediate tackles; probably not "gets hit but drags the dude for 3 more yards." The UM linemen are going to HAVE to put a body on these guys.

Michigan

Ok, so Stevie Brown was significantly improved at his new linebacker position, just like we all knew he would be. Anybody who watched him wreck shit at the line of scrimmage last year then screw up coverage knew this. Next to him is Obi Ezeh, who looked pretty good against Western, but was found to be hesitant on a few plays:

Roh(+1), in a two-point stance as Michigan moves to an under look, attacks the RT. RT doesn't look like he's attempting to block Roh, as the play is supposed to go up the middle. This is a mistake: Roh gets underneath the guy and blasts him back into the ballcarrier as he passes. An unblocked Ezeh—no Broncos got off their doubles—cleans up. Michigan was in a pure eight-man front here, BTW, with a blitz off the edge from Williams absorbing a pulling TE. Would like Ezeh to be a little more proactive here and shut this down closer to the LOS.

I have no way of telling whether the UFR is the end-all-be-all or whether Ezeh had other responsibilities, but this was a recurring theme.

Advantage Notre Dame but not by much

Secondary

Notre Dame

Senior Kyle McCarthy and Sophomore Robert Blanton both got picks last week as they shut down Nevada's passing offense. Nevada, however, is a known running team, and while the DB's got a bit of work in, they weren't exactly facing Tom Brady's Patriots here. I expect the unit to be improved, if only because they were starting a slow white boxer at Safety prior to this year. The jury, however, is still out on this unit.

Michigan

Michigan meanwhile returns Donovon Warren, who was very impressive in his Junior year debut against Western, and Boubacar Cissoko who looked good at times, and competent at others. Boubacar was held out of the second half against Western due to a tweak, and what we saw behind him didn't looke good. I foresee Justin Turner getting some reps this game if Cissoko can't go or re-tweaks something. As long as the four man unit of Warren, Cissoko, Woolfork, and Williams stays on the field, Michigan has a good secondary. If just one of these dudes goes down, we're in trouble

Advantage Michigan as long as they don't get injured. If Floyd sees significant time, this shifts to ND quickly.

Special Teams

This punt still hasn't landed.

In all seriousness, Michigan holds an advantage in this area given the Zoltan factor as well as the 44-yarder kicked last week by Olesnavage. Notre Dame is starting some sort of freshman walkon not named Rudy at kicker, which is questionable, and has a serviceable punter.

The Upshot

I think Michigan actually has a better defense provided that they are able to stay on the field without their feet and tendons bending the wrong way. Notre Dame's, however, is not far behind and given the fact that the Michigan offense is still new and still run by newbies, we might be in trouble. If Tate can still make the smart decision in the face of the TENUTA-BLITZ, we'll be in business. If he gets flustered, well, it might be time to start thinking about Central.

Conversely, the Notre Dame offense is definitely better at this stage than the Michigan offense. So we've got a superior offense going against a superior defense, and a shaky offense going against a comparatively shaky defense but not as shaky as I'd like.

Much like Brian and House Rock Built guy, I see this coming down to a few big plays. Notre Dame will throw deep, and probably connect on one. Michigan might catch a TENUTA BLITZ on a screen that goes the distance. If we can force Clausen into Yakety-Sax mode - which he's prone to do in the Big House - we'll be in business. If he starts converting 3rd and 7's with regularity, we're toast.

Score predictions up later today.

Unit by Unit: Breaking Down Michigan Football's Defense Following Its Win Over Western Michigan

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 16:26:27 -0000

A new weekly post game feature here at Maize n Brew will be what we like to Unit by Unit. We'll take a hard look at the players and the coaches for each particular unit on the team, and bring them in for a pat on the back or a wag of the finger. After we've looked at each position, we'll give you a final wrap on the team's play on Offense and Defense (Special Teams too!). If you're looking for more detail, game bullets are here, the wrap up is here, the boxscore is here, and the general AP recap is here. There are the links, we've already broken down the Offense, so now let's take a good hard look at....

The Defense

Michigan's defense deserves some significant praise for an outstanding game on Saturday. Save a garbage time touchdown pass, the Defense played outstanding football. Despite being advertised as a 3-4 defense, Robinson's boys showed a lot of 4-3 alignments, hammering Western at the point of attack. Even when the Wolverines switched back to a 3-4, they were just as dangerous, getting penetration and thumping Hiller. What was the most impressive thing was the improvement in tackling. No more one arm whiffs. Michigan wrapped up and drove through its tackles. Sure there will be a few misses that show up in MGoBlog’s UFR, but over all it was night and day from 2008. Just nine months removed from looking slow and confused the Wolverine Defense was fast and furious. Hat’s off to Greg Robinson and the coaching staff for an excellent game plan and some great fall coaching.

Awesome Photo via John T. Greilick Detnews.com

The Defensive Line

With just one returning starter on the line, Michigan fans were rightfully petrified of what would happen when their defense saw the field. Last year was, after all, the worst defense in school history and Michigan is now breaking in its third defensive coordinator in three years.

Only thing is, the Defensive Line was really, really good. The Wolverines terrorized Tim Hiller all game. Brandon Graham didn't register a sack, but spent his entire afternoon introducing Mr. Hiller to the field turf, face first. Mike Martin was even better than advertised, clogging the middle of the line, penetrating into the pocket and disrupting plays. At one point Martin blew through the line and pancaked poor Tim Hiller before he had a chance to realize that an angry 300 pound man was approaching him. Both veterans were awesome. Want a kick ass stat? At halftime Western had just 2 rushing yards on 11 attempts. That’s a 0.2 YPC. How awesome is that? Overall, the line limited Western and its 2008 1000 yard rusher to just 38 total yards on the ground.

(More breakdown of the Michigan Defense after the jump.....)

Awesome Photo via John T. Greilick Detnews.com

Surprisingly, it wasn’t just the veteran linemen getting into the act. Brandon Herron, Ryan Van Bergen and Craig Roh were all over the offensive backfield, tallying 11 tackles and 2 TFL between them. A minor surprise amidst all the bigger ones was that Craig Roh (#88 at left) earned the start at the "hybrid" linebacker/DL position. Frankly, the kid was just as good as advertised in the pass rush. I was stunned to see him bull rush and flatten just about everyone who got in his way to the quarterback. What also surprised me is his discipline. He wasn’t just rushing the passer, he was stopping the run. It’s hard to get too excited about any player after a single game, but when he gets a full season in a college weight program he could really be something special. Even though he lost the starting nod to Roh, Brandon Herron looked fairly capable in the hybrid role. Herron got good penetration and was adequate manning his gaps. I didn’t see him out of position that often, and seemed to take on blockers without too much difficulty. Van Bergen looked pretty good as well, even if he was overshadowed a tad by Roh and Herron. Lining up as a hybrid DT/DE Van Bergen ate up two lineman at a time and still managed to get pressure on Hiller, meeting Roh at Hiller’s ribcage to split a sack.

I thought it was a great game from the Defense against a good offensive unit.

The Line Backers

Like the Defensive Line, the linebacking corps was a pleasant surprise on Saturday. The surprise being they actually looked like they knew what they were doing. Put bluntly, these guys couldn't find their ass with a flashlight and a GPS last year. Saturday was an entirely different story.

Awesome Photo via John T. Greilick Detnews.com

On Saturday they were flying around the field. Stevie Brown looked like an entirely different player on Saturday. Good in coverage, good at the line of scrimmage. Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton were flying to the gaps, and unlike last year, they were the right gaps. Any over pursuit was limited. Assignments weren't blown. I thought Ezeh, in particular, shed blocks very, very well, and tackled in space better than I’ve ever seen this group do. They actually looked like they knew what they were doing. Compare this to ANY point last season. It's night and day. 20 tackles 1.5 TFL and a pick. And what a pick.

If you’re looking to nit pick, and I’m sure you are, you can say that Ezeh and Mouton aren’t aggressively filling some of their gaps. You can say that Brown is still undersized and will have some problems when larger, faster linemen get up on him. Even if you say all of that, it was still a pretty good game from the Linebackers.

As an added bonus, Michigan was able to play J.B. Fitzgerald a bit. Greg Robinson may not be a miracle worker. He may not be a savior. Hell, this could all fall apart tomorrow. But for one day, we saw the Michigan defense, and in particular, the linebacking play we expect out of Michigan. And Robinson deserves a lot of credit for that.

The Secondary

Awesome Photo via John T. Greilic Detnews.com

With the exception of a 73 yard screw up, the secondary played very well. Because Western couldn’t move the ball at all, Tim Hiller was left to chuck the ball all over the field. As best he could. 39 times. That’s a lot of passes in comparison to 24 rushing attempts. But when you look at the boxscore at the end of the game and see 263 yards in the air, you really don’t get a true picture of just how dominant the pass defense was.

At halftime Michigan had limited Western to 81 passing yards on 24 attempts and 13 completions. One of those incompletions was a pick. That’s less than 4 yards an attempt and less than 7 yards a completion. So the halftime stats tell a better, more accurate account of how the group fared.

Individually, I thought Boo Boo played the best game out of the corners. Granted my view was obscured by the TV and all the Kentucky fans stumbling into the hotel lobby from the Kentucky/Miami of Ohio game (I was at a hotel in Cincinnati directly across from Paul Brown Stadium [Kentucky won 49-0, BTW]), but Boo Boo looked gooooood. He was good in tight coverage, pressing the receivers and dropping back into zone. His pick, while simply being in the right place at the right time, was impressive because of how he handled it. He caught it awkwardly, but kept his balance and actually shifted the ball away from the contact side as if he was a running back. The kid is impressive. If he can stay healthy, I think we’ve got a great player back there. Thankfully, it also looks like he’s going to be healthy to play against Notre Dame.

On the other side, it’s not like Donovan Warren had a bad game. He was pretty impressive as well, generally matching up against Western’s best WR, Juan Nunez, and shutting him down. You’ve gotta knock him down to a B+ because of one legit PI call, one bad PI call, and losing his cool. Warren was great in coverage for the most part. But he’s going to have play under control against the Irish to be successful.

As for the safeties, I didn’t really notice them that much. After a year of saying "Oh my god, the safeties," this was a welcome change. Troy Woolfolk and Mike Williams only combined for 7 tackles, but the fact they didn’t have to make that many stops is a welcome change. The lone screwup was a fourth quarter 73 yard TD pass. Williams and Woolfolk got sucked up into the box on play action and JT Floyd (subbing in for the injured Cissoko) let Nunez get away from him. Play action was a bit of a bugaboo for Michigan last season, so I have to admit the fact that it worked to the tune of a long touchdown concerns me a little bit. But overall, the safeties were very good.

If there’s a "meh" aspect of the secondary’s game, it was Floyd giving up the long touchdown. Once J.T. Turner is ready, I have to imagine he’ll take over the nickel job/first corner off the bench job.

Special Teams

With the exception of Zoltan Mesko, Space Emperor, Special Teams was a total question mark. Who was going to return punts and kick offs? Who’s going to kick field goals? Can anyone hold onto the damn ball?

Those questions were answered, and answered well. Jason Olesnavage booted a 44 yard field goal on his first opportunity ever. That’s going to be huge going into the Notre Dame game. Special props to Greg Mathews for fielding punts and not dropping them. I thought Mathews actually showed some shiftiness in the return game when given a chance, but most importantly, he didn’t fumble. Finally, I thought the kick coverage was fairly good.

Awesome Photo via John T. Greilick Detnews.com

Overall, a great game all around from the Wolverines.

All In: Michigan Football Thumps Western Michigan 31-7

Maize n Brew Dave — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:04:16 -0000

by TONY DING - AP

3 months ago: Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez receives a hug from running back Brandon Minor, right, after an NCAA college football game with Western Michigan, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2009, in Ann Arbor, Mich. Michigan won 31-7. (AP Photo/Tony Ding)

View full size photo »

When you don't know what to expect out of a team, the story lines are easy. You just ask a bunch of rhetorical questions. When there are more questions than answers that's all you can do. Three days later I've got more answers than I know what to do with. There are so many people deserving of praise. Who do you write about first? Forcier? Hemingway? Rodriguez? Robinson? Denard? The whole bleeping defense? When a team manufactures a win, there isn't a "hero" per se. It's a group of heroes that need to be recognized, because they all contributed. These kids shook off or simply ignored every outside distraction and steamrolled Western Michigan on Saturday 31-7. It wasn't just a game where a better team walked onto the field and won because they were supposed to. If there's such a thing as a statement game on day one, this was it. They were all in.

Whether you've been looking ahead to this game for a month or a week, Western Michigan was a scary opener. Seven returning starters including an NFL-rated Quarterback in Tim Hiller, a senior 1000 yard rusher in Brandon West, and four returning starting Offensive Linemen. It was a 28 PPG offense matching up against a Wolverine defense that gave up 33.5 a game last season (in conference). On the other side of the ball, while you weren't scared of Western's defense, you were scared of Michigan's offense. It was explosive last year. Explosive in the wrong sense. All of 2008 Michigan players seemed be clutching the grenade a little too long or playing hop-scotch in a minefield. Now, with a true freshman under center, irrespective of his spring and fall practices, it was enough to make even the diehards queasy. Mix that in with your starting tailback being out, a slew of untested receivers, and the season from hell in 2008... well... you've got yourself a recipe for a long afternoon.

And this wasn't just a season opener. No way. This was a must win for this coach and this program. After a 3-9 season, all the nonsense from the Free Press, and the national media skewing what the Free Press' report actually claimed to report, Michigan needed this win. Rich Rodriguez needed, nay, deserved this win, just as he has deserved so much better from some of the people who have been assigned to cover him. More importantly, the players knew how important this game was. After months of practice and devotion to the program, their commitment was being called illegal. Their coach and their program were being called into question. They knew the only way to silence the critics was to perform. To go all in.

Oh baby... did they ever.

Michigan was the Michigan we want to remember. They were absolutely dominant on Saturday. The offense clicked. The defense was nasty. Open receivers were hit in stride. The Defensive Line controlled the line of scrimmage and took away yards on third downs. It was a opener that we can look back on fondly with a smile, rather than grimacing and shaking our heads.

Michigan fans finally saw what Bill Martin hired Rich Rodriguez to do. They finally saw what his teams are capable of. Most importantly, they saw just how hard Rodriguez players are willing to play for their coach. Make no mistake, had Michigan lost this game or had it been uncomfortably close, the media would've immediately began harping on how the locker room was divided and how Rodriguez was close to losing his team.

During the pre-game on ESPN we were left with speculation that the locker room was divided. Desmond openly pondered what was going on. Corso and Herbstreit commented that it sounded like trouble. Then, oddly, Craig James came on the air to say none of that speculation was correct. This team was united... and pissed off that people were speculating about this sort of thing. The Game Day crew immediately downplayed James' comments and started talking about the divide between underclassmen and upperclassmen, and how the young guys just want to play and the seniors were more of a barometer.

You're right fellas. They are. All those seniors played with intensity, heart, and determination. The seniors on the offensive line played their best games. Mark Ortmann, save a false start, played as well as he ever has. Greg Mathews was excellent on the return game. Stevie Brown and Obi Ezeh were outstanding, totally eclipsing their performances from last year in a single game. Brandon Graham bull rushed and terrorized Tim Hiller the entire game, even if the stat sheet only says one tackle. Brandon Minor didn't play, but could have, and he was one of the first people to hug Rodriguez after the game was over. Want proof? It's the photo at the top. Those are your seniors, ESPN. Ask them how they feel about Coach Rodriguez. Their play speaks for them. But just in case you actually want to ask a question before speculating, they're available for comment. But then again, I don't think you'll like what they have to say. It doesn't fit your story.

Frankly, our story is better. It's one of redemption, one game at a time. A story about 115 kids who believe in a coach who really does care about them. It talks about two freshmen quarterbacks taking a stadium of 110,000 plus by storm. One with his guile and arm. Another with his feet. There's a subplot about Junior Hemingway coming back from injury to dominate the passing game. Chapters about a defense left for dead in 2008 that, for a game anyway, was as dominant as we've seen since 2006. Let's talk about that story, rather than the one that's supported by a house of cards.

What you saw on Saturday was a group of young men who wanted to prove something. After a week of telling anyone within earshot that they were committed to Michigan Football and Coach Rodriguez, they were tired of no one listening to them. So they decided to let their play do the talking. Guided by two freshman under center and a grizzled old defensive coordinator who everyone thought left his chops in Austin, Michigan made a resounding statement on Saturday.

We're all in.

The Obligatory Predictions Competition

Law Buckeye — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 03:19:19 -0000

College football's smartest picks contest.

You might have heard, we at The Rivalry, Esq. are not above the sort of self-declared polity that comes with crowning ourselves psychic masters of the college football universe and certifying our predictions each week. Then again, you're not either.

It's back...The 2009 Obligatory Predictions Competition.

This is how we do it. Each week we select five interesting match-ups and predict the outcome. If you don't buy our "expert" opinions, or think you can do better -- enter your picks for all five games in the comments section of the article at least an hour before kickoff (EST) of the first match in question. At the end of the week we'll tally the score and declare a winner. The weekly winner gets to write 500 words on the site about anything college football.

But that's not all.

in 2009...

Season Scoreboard. This is no longer just a temporary thing. Each time you earn points, we'll carry them over to the next week in a season-long race to the top. (Sure, this means you'll probably want to try to play each round. But don't sweat it if you miss a few. We'll still crown weekly winners -- so you can defend your fanhood).

Here's how to run up the score:

One (1) point is earned for a correctly picking the winning team.

If you pick the winning team, earn an additional two (2) points for correctly identifying the winning spread by seven points or less.

If you pick the winning team, earn an additional two (2) points for picking a perfect spread (i.e. The PATERNOSGRANDDAUGHTER Bonus)

Two (2) bonus points are awarded for the "upset pick" -- an upset being defined as predicting: 1. Any AP/BCS Top 25 ranked team to defeat any opponent of higher rank, which in fact does occur, or 2. Any non-ranked AP/BCS Top 25 team to defeat any ranked opponent, which in fact does occur.

Without further adieu, here are our Week 1 Predictions:

1. No. 13 GEORGIA at No. 9 OKLAHOMA STATE, 3:30 p.m. EST (9/5), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts OKLAHOMA STATE by 10

You want me to pick OSU because of their returning weapons and the homefield advantage. You want me to pick OSU because Joe Cox throws an ugly ball and doesn’t have oodles of experience. You want me to pick OSU because no one else will and you think I’m an idiot to believe in a Big 12 team with no defense (is there any other kind of Big 12 team?). You win.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts OKLAHOMA STATE by 7

This is the hardest game of the week to predict, and we're not wasting any time by tackling it first. On one hand, Georgia is without perhaps their two most recognizable playmakers of the last decade (Stafford/Moreno). On the other, I have trouble shaking my belief that the Big 12 South is a one-dimensional mirage: high octane offenses propped up by abysmally poor defenses.

I think the Cowboys are the exception to the rule, and I think that because running back Kendall Hunter, wide receiver Dez Bryant, and quarterback Zac Robinson will score enough points to make up for a shaky defensive backfield. The Bulldogs will score too, behind one of the best offensive lines in the country and a stable of backs, but they won't be able to keep up on a pistol whip of a trip outside conference lines.

2. WESTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN, 3:30 p.m. EST (9/5), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN by 7

Oh boy. I envision Michigan struggling early on offense and watching in shock as Tim Hiller drives the Bronco’s down the field methodically for an early touchdown. I also envision the Bronco’s hurdling themselves at Forcier and praying he gets nicked early, if only to get Nick Sheridan on the field as fast as possible. Yes it’s true – Michigan’s 4 star defensive recruits should overwhelm Western in the Big House. But the Wolverines are facing tremendous pressure to win this game. Go Blue...

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MICHIGAN by 14

Two years in a row the Wolverines have tanked in their opener. Let's just say the third time will be a charm for an embattled Rich Rodriguez and a much-improved squad. I see a vaunted spread offense that clicks against a Bronco defense that returns just three starters and an unripe secondary. Meanwhile, Obi Ezeh and Brandon Graham -- stars under the tutelage of Greg Robinson -- will anchor a stronger, more consistent 3-4 defense.

Still, Michigan fans shouldn't breathe a sigh of relief. The true test for the Wolverines remains a week away when Charlie Weis comes to town.

3. MISSOURI v. ILLINOIS, 3:40 p.m. EST (9/5), ESPN

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts ILLINOIS by 10

For awhile, I’ve had a problem with that T-Pain/Jamie Foxx song "Blame It." I love it, but there’s one line that says Blame it on the Jews and I just felt that was inappropriate. That wonderful culture/people shouldn’t be blamed for your muddled one-night stands. Anyways, I’ve been informed that it’s actually a reference to the Illini’s struggles last year. Apparently T-Pain attended school in Champagne-Urbana and believes JUICE Williams was the cause of last year’s problems. Well Phil Steele and I both believe Williams and Co will improve this year. This turnaround starts against the Tigers from Mizzou. (Sorry Mary Schultz!)

LAW BUCKEYE predicts ILLINOIS by 10

Don't let the absence of rankings fool you. This St. Louis showdown is a huge game for Illinois and the conference. Mighty Mizzou has firebombed Ron Zook two years in a row. It's time for some revenge. Star Tigers linebacker Sean Witherspoon has promised to "squeeze the pulp out of Juice [Williams]." He might get a few good licks in, but this game belongs to the stronger, more disciplined Illini. Talented, but virgin quarterback Blaine Gabbert will struggle early to synchronize Gary Pinkel's signature offense. Arrelious Benn will eat Missouri's shoe-string secondary alive.

4. NORTHERN ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN 7:00 p.m. EST

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts WISCONSIN by 14

The Badgers, starting a non-Dustin Sherer quarterback and a non-John Clay running back, will lean on the Huskies until they fall over. Every year, there's a team that can't contain the Badgers rushing attack and ends up surrendering about 400 yards on the ground. This won’t quite be that game, but Bielema wins convincingly. Watch for Chandler Harnisch though – he’s the MAC’s Jake Locker, complete with Melrose Place sounding name. As I wrote here:

Huskies quarterback Chandler Harnish can run...and throw...and lead. He proved this in 2008 as A FRESHMAN. Is he the next Dan Lefevour or Tim Hiller, MAC quarterbacks sure to get NFL hype?

LAW BUCKEYE predicts WISCONSIN by 10

Bret Bielema doesn't want your pity, he wants your respect. Free from illusions of grandeur, this is a Wisconsin team that's ready to start anew. Although they'll face a respectable opponent in the Huskies, they'll grind a solid ground attack and tight end audibles to victory.

5. No. 5 ALABAMA v. No. 7 VIRGINIA TECH 8:00 p.m. EST, ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts ALABAMA by 7

This is the matchup of the week. Roll Tide Roll says:

Of course the easy answer -- and in all fairness, perhaps even the correct answer for 2009 -- is that we will try to replicate the basic strategy employed a year ago: physically dominate our opponents in the trenches in the running game, run it right down their throats, and only throw the football when and where we want to. But the problem with that is that there is no guarantee that the pre-requisites needed.

I have enough faith in that gigantic defense residing in Tuscaloosa to believe the Tide can triumph over a Darren Evans lacking VT team. Bama shows its power in ATL.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts ALABAMA by 7

Two weeks ago I would have said the opposite. But that was before star running back Darren Evans suffered a season-ending injury. The loss of Evans, and his 1,265 yards of production in 2008 will shackle the Hokies. Nick Saban and his ahead-of-schedule Crimson Tide will continue their track record of demonizing ACC favorites in season-openers. Just don't expect this game to look anything like last year's pulverizing of Clemson.

The Hokies deserve to be here, they just will fall a little short.