SB Nation - Mark Dell

MSU-TT in the Alamo Bowl: Suspension Impact?

grahamfiller10 — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 01:52:33 -0000

Tearing on another team's disciplinary or academic problems is usually an uninteresting pursuit that can quickly turn against you. For every Ed Martin (Michigan booster who gave 280k to Chris Webber), there's a Maurice Clarett and a Charles Rogers. So MSU's reputation, although tarnished by the fact that there are gangs of unruly Spartan football players roving around East Lansing, will remain similar to any other major program.

So will there be any REAL impact on the Texas Tech game? What does Leach need to know about Animal House 2: When Players Attack?

Here is a list from TOC of the players suspended over the incident -

Roderick Jenrette, 22, of East Lansing; conspiracy and three counts of assault or assault and battery.

Glenn Winston, 20, East Lansing; conspiracy and two counts of assault or assault and battery.

Frederick Smith, 19, Macomb Township; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

B.J. Cunningham, 20, Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

Jamiihr Williams, 20, East Lansing; conspiracy and count of assault or assault and battery.

Mark Dell, 20, Lansing; a count of assault or assault and battery.

Ashton Leggett, 20, Muskegon; conspiracy and two counts of assault or assault and battery.

J'Micheal Deane, 23, East Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

Chris L. Rucker, 21, East Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

All nine individuals are charged with conspiracy, which is a misdemeanor with a one-year maximum. The other charges are also misdemeanors, and have a 93-day maximum sentence.

You know what happens every time TO gets traded from a a team? Everyone breathes a sign of relief because the negative distraction is gone. Might that be at play here with some of these players? Probably not. Dell, Cunningham, and Rucker were healthy and would have started versus TT if not for the Night of the Long Masks. Although the secondary was generally horrendous, Rucker was an aggressive corner, which is obviously helpful if DC Narduzzi had decided to pull up his corners in bump coverage. Dell and Cunningham were #2 and #3 in reception yards for Sparty, which leads me to believe that 1) Blair White is going to be doubled, 2) we're going to see a TE in a slot position and 3) if a backup WR drops a ball early or runs a wrong route, there is going to be great wailing and gnashing of teeth (H/T: Book of Job).

Is Mike Leach giggling like a schoolgirl ~~in the hopes that Saint Nicholas will soon be there~~ because of the general upheaval that has enveloped the depth chart and pissed off some of the Spartan fan base? Probably not. Vegas will steadily increase that 8 point line for the Red Raiders and overconfidence can grow, which will give Leach incentive to push his troops. Kirk Cousins is still around with his laser rocket arm, though featuring less weapons to throw too. Adversity usually has one of two effects on individuals: Either people step up and play more minutes than usual while making plays...or they wilt under the scrutiny and added responsibility. Blair White and Keshawn Martin are talented enough to play the whole game, while MSU's tight end depth is the best in the Big Ten. Both Sims or Linthicum are quick enough to play slot.

A huge gut check is in line for Michigan State at the Alamo Bowl. Will they go out like Jim Bowie, cursing and firing until bayoneted? Or will the tumult and addition of walk-ons getting PT be too much for the Spartans to endure?

Michigan State Football Players Charged with Assault

Pete Rossman — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 21:46:30 -0000

From the State News:

The players are Roderick Jenrette, Glenn Winston, Fred Smith, B.J. Cunningham, Mark Dell, Jamiihr Williams, Ashton Leggett, J’Michael Deane and Chris L. Rucker.

The Ingham County prosecutor's office did state that they wanted to file charges before finals week, and here they are. The only one on that list that hasn't been mentioned in the news yet is Deane. For some reason he wasn't punished along with the other players in the altercation, I'm guessing there's a bowl game suspension in the cards (Edit: Deane suspension confirmed, check update #2 - PR). The two players who were punished by Dantonio but not charged with assault were Ishmyl Johnson and Brynden Trawick.

In all, the only aspect of these charges that was unexpected was the assault charge against Deane. Hopefully this can be settled quick and we can put this incident in the past. The announced charges could've been a lot worse - according to one victim's attourney 15-20 players were present, meaning that 5-10 more charges could've been filed if adequate proof existed.

UPDATE: The Detroit News has a list of the specific charges:

The players accused and the charges are:

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Roderick Jenrette, 22, of East Lansing; conspiracy and three counts of assault or assault and battery.

Glenn Winston, 20, East Lansing; conspiracy and two counts of assault or assault and battery.

Frederick Smith, 19, Macomb Township; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

B.J. Cunningham, 20, Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

Jamiihr Williams, 20, East Lansing; conspiracy and count of assault or assault and battery.

Mark Dell, 20, Lansing; a count of assault or assault and battery.

Ashton Leggett, 20, Muskegon; conspiracy and two counts of assault or assault and battery.

J'Micheal Deane, 23, East Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

Chris L. Rucker, 21, East Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

All nine individuals are charged with conspiracy, which is a misdemeanor with a one-year maximum. The other charges are also misdemeanors, and have a 93-day maximum sentence.

UPDATE #2 - Yup, Deane's been suspended, along with another wide receiver, Chris D. Rucker and defensive back Donald Spencer per The State News. On a related note, if you are an MSU student with a fast 40 time and ~~good~~ ~~decent~~ two hands, I'd start checking with the football staff about opportunities for a free trip to San Antonio this January.

Michigan State to face Texas Tech in Alamo Bowl

Pete Rossman — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:07:51 -0000

In what had been projected for weeks on end, Michigan State will play Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl Saturday January 2nd 2010, 9 PM EST on ESPN. This marks the second time MSU's played in the Alamo Bowl, with the first being a 17-3 loss to Nebraska in 2003. While there was some speculation that the Alamo Bowl execs might be a bit loathe to pick the Spartans due to their *ahem* off the field transgressions, money once again trumps everything, which leads us back to San Antonio for the first time in six years. More on the Red Raiders after the jump.

Here's the breakdown on Texas Tech this season:

Total Offense: 461.8 ypg (7th in D1)
Passing Yardage: 405.8 ypg (2nd in D1)
Rushing Yardage: 81.1 ypg (115th in D1)
Total Defense: 348.8 ypg (48th in D1)
Passing Defense: 223.8 ypg (71st in D1)
Rushing Defense: 125.00 ypg (36th in D1)

Now, don't freak out about the passing yardage. Even though the Red Raiders have the 2nd most profilic passing offense in division 1 (behind Houston), they average only 7.3 yards per attempt, which ranks them 48th in the nation. The team at number 49? Iowa. Tech averages a little over 51 passing attempts a game, and I wouldn't expect them to change their run-pass defense in the bowl game.

With Tech's shaky pass defense, The odds of this game being a shootout on both sides significantly decreased with the suspensions of Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham. Blair White, Keshawn Martin, we're going to need you in this game.

As for now, MSU's going to a bowl game that's not in Detroit against a team tailor-made to take advantage of their biggest weakness. This one's going to be good?

Michigan State preview

BoilerTMill — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:52:29 -0000

When I saw this game on the schedule I felt it was the biggest toss-up of the year. I expected to be teetering on the edge of bowl eligibility at this point (certainly without wins over Ohio State and Michigan) but I didn't know what to think of the Spartans. Being game 11, it was hard to predict how seasons would turn out on both sides. I felt confidence about beating Indiana, but I have virtually ignored Michigan State for multiple reasons. First, the game felt far off. Second, it later felt like the game would not matter. Now that it is here, I still don't know what to think.

I am really surprised that this is the best offense in the Big Ten. I am more surprised that their defense has been so bad. Like Ben and I discussed in the podcast last night, just about the opposite was expected from the Spartans. The defense has been pretty good at home, but has struggled mightily on the road. As Ben said though, they have faced better offenses (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Minnesota) on the road than at home (Western Michigan, Montana State, Michigan).

In short this is a huge game for both teams, though we have less of a margin for error (none) than Michigan State.

2009 Record: 5-5, 3-3 Big Ten

2008 Record: 9-4, 6-2 Big Ten

Bowl Result: lost Capitol One Bowl 24-12 to Georgia

Blog Representation: The Only Colors, The Enlightened Spartan, Sparty MSU

Series with Purdue: Michigan State leads 30-28-3

Last Purdue win: 11/4/2006 at Michigan State 17-15

Last Michigan State win: 11/8/2008 at Michigan State 21-7

Long lost brothers meet again

Michigan State offense:

This is really the best offense statistically in the Big Ten? I guess you're right. Michigan is flaky. Ohio State wins with defense, as does Iowa Most of the time. Minnesota has had one great offensive game against Michigan State. Indiana is surprisingly good. Illinois has only been good for two weeks. Northwestern is opportunistic. Purdue moves the ball, but we give it away almost as much as we score. Penn State can't score against good teams. Wisconsin is afraid to pass. That leaves Michigan State.

The Spartans don't have a dominant running back like Javon Ringer any more, but their running game is surprisingly balanced. No one has run for more than 400 yards, but seven players have at least 100 yards rushing (compared to three such players for us). Leading rusher Larry Coyer (375 yard, 6 TD's) is a question mark after suffering a concussion a few weeks ago, but Ashton Leggett (110-4) took over the position with authority last week by running for 110 yards and 4 TD's on 14 carries. He had one carry for 0 yards previously, and that came in the season opener against Montana State. Edwin Baker (242-0) also had his best game of the season last week with 15 carries for 78 yards.

Ashton Leggett had a breakout game against Western Michigan

At quarterback we will see both kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol. Thoughts on that issue are best summed up here by the Michigan State faithful. Cousins (158-148, 14 TD, 5 INT, 2,097 yards) has been by far the better quarterback, but Mark Dantonio insists on getting Nichol (45-86, 6 TD, 3 INT, 680 yards) some work in each game. The duo has combined to be the best passing attack in the league, so our secondary will be tested. Expect Cousins to start and Nichol to play.

Nichol and Cousins like to spread the ball around, though there is one top receiver to focus on. Blair White (58-836-7) will remind Purdue fans a lot of Chris Daniels. He is one of the conference's top receivers and will be the number one option on many plays. B.J. Cunningham (41-510-3) is a solid second option as Michigan State will likely look to pass first. Tight end Brian Linthicum (18-259-2) gives each quarterback a reliable safety valve and goal line option. Keshawn Martin (12-251-3) is a speedy deep threat. He has a 91 yard score on his resume this season. Mark Dell (25-392-1) can also be a deep option.

The reason that Michgian State's passing game has been so successful is its offensive line. The Spartans have given up just 12 sacks on the year, but they have yet to see a pass rush as fierce as ours. I fear another Wisconsin game because Michigan State has a big, experienced offensive line. Seniors Brendon Moss, Joel Nitchman, and Rocco Cironi form the core, but juniors Joel Foreman and D.J. Young are hardly stiffs. This is not a tall line, but they are compact and strong. We must respond tot heir physicality better than we did against Wisconsin.

Michigan State defense:

While our defense may struggle to slow down their very good passing game, our own passing game should have plenty of room to move as long as we can avoid turnovers. Michigan State defends the run well, giving up barely more than 100 yards per game. They are giving up over 230 yards per game through the air with a whopping 22 touchdowns. Ball security could be even more of an issue. Michigan State has forced only 11 turnovers this season, so it is critical that we don't help them out with dumb turnovers like we have helped other teams all year long.

The run defense begins with one of the best linebackers in the Big Ten, if not the entire country. Greg Jones is a beast of a player in the middle. He already has 117 tackles (11 for loss) 7.5 sacks, and a fumble recovery. He loves to get after the quarterback, and you can bet he will end up wherever the ball is. Fellow linebackers Brandon Denson (54 tackles) and Eric Gordon (70 tackles) help him out. All three are the top tacklers for Michigan State.

Michigan State starts a pair of senior defensive ends in Trevor Anderson (4 sacks) and Colin Neely (2 sacks). Tackles Jerel Worthy and Oren Wilson are stout against the run, while Worthy can get into the backfield with 4.5 sacks. Wilson is a big nose tackle that will be difficult to get around in the middle of the line, but we mostly run outside anyway.

The Spartan secondary can be exploited. Corners Chris Rucker and Jeremy Ware have been disappointing this year. Each has just one interception, but more than 40 tackles. Marcus Hyde and Dan Fortener have played every game at the safety spots, but have only one interception between them. We should have some room to move in the passing game since coverage is not their strong suit.

Michigan State Special Teams:

Aaron Bates is one of the league's better punters at 42 yards per kick. Teams are averaging 8 yards per return against him, but we seem to be employing a strategy of catching the ball then falling down of late, so it doesn't matter. Michigan State is giving up 22 yards per kick return, so ATM might have some room.

Brett Swinson is one of the best kickers in the Big Ten. He has hit on 14 of 16 field goal with a long of 45. he did miss his only attempt last week from 37, so he isn't automatic. Keshawn Martin is a dangerous kick returner who has already taken one back for a score. He also returns punts, so our coverage must be better than last week.

Intangibles:

Purdue clearly needs this more. We're on a roll (if you remove the Wisconsin game) and playing at home with a senior class that has overachieved this year. Michigan State can afford a loss, while we cannot. They at least have the fallback of a second chance at home next week. We do not.

Michigan State has also performed poorly on the road this year. They grabbed a win at Illinois when Illinois was terrible, but it was only a hard fought 10 point victory. They gave up a ton of points to Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in their other road trips. I am really surprised that their defense has underperformed this season. It was supposed to be a strength while the offense replaced Brian Hoyer and Jevon Ringer. Instead, the offense has been fine while the defense has given up a ton of yards through the air.

Defensively, we want to make Michigan State run the ball. They do not have a strong running game, and many of its numbers are inflated by last week and the opener against Montana State. They have had the luxury of two laughers there, while we have had about half of one against Toledo. If our secondary can keep the passing game in check I have confidence the run defense will come around. Michigan and Wisconsin have gashed us the last two weeks, but they are much better running teams than the Spartans. Of course, Illinois was a bad running team too.

Offensively, if we can establish some balance with Ralph Bolden I think we will do very well. If we somehow get him to 100 yards I do not see us losing because the passing game will have plenty of time to work.

Keys to the Game for Purdue:

Do not let their running game get moving
Establish Ralph Bolden
No stupid turnovers
Control the clock
Get after Cousins/Nichol

A Consolidated Friday Preview of Minnesota Meh - Hockey v. Alaska-Anchorage, Football v. Sparty.

JG2112 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:00:38 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

SPARTY NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Browse more photos »

Let's get hockey out of the way first. Lucia has a mess to figure out (three shutouts, and three losses and a tie in four games so far) and he needs to do it quick before the season spins out of control. The Seawolves provide a nice opportunity to right the ship. Here's a preview from Gopher Puck Live. If things develop this weekend in the rare Friday - Sunday series and warrant a review, you'll get one here.

Now, football. The Michigan State Spartans are coming to town. Gopher Nation talked with The Only Colors yesterday about some aspects of the game tomorrow. It's a critical game for both teams, and it's obviously Sparty's first trip to TCF. It's also another opportunity for Sparty to have a SPARTY NOOOOOOOOO moment.

Don't know what I'm talking about? If any fan base can relate to the SPARTY NOOOOOOOO moment, it's Minnesota. It's the combination of coaching, player, and scheme meltdowns that lead to a ridiculous late-game loss. Sparty has had this happen in comical ways over the years - obviously, having goofs like Bobby Williams and John L. Smith as your coach lead to comedy (on that note, can you believe Nick Saban once coached there?). For a good example, think the 2006 Notre Dame - Sparty game. Sparty surrendered a 37-21 fourth quarter lead in a pouring rainstorm. At home. Good fun - watch it here.

Sparty is having one heck of a run of SPARTY NOOOOOOOO moments this year, though. Take your pick as to which one is the best. Was it against Central Michigan, where the Chippewas recovered an onside kick and got to rekick their last-second field goal after Sparty was offside on a block, shocking the Spartans at home for the third time? Was it against Notre Dame, where Kirk Cousins missed a wide open receiver in the end zone on the game's penultimate play, and threw an INT across his body, on the run, into the center of the defense, on the final relevant play?

How about against Michigan, where Sparty shackled the Wolverines for 56 minutes, but let Tate Forcier construct two touchdowns to Darryl Stonum and Roy Roundtree, one with :09 left in the driving rain with Forcier completely exhausted, before midnight struck for Forcier in overtime? Last Saturday, however, may take the cake. Up by 4, Sparty coach Mark Dantonio decided to revert to a three-man rush until the game's last play, where he rushed seven. Kirk Ferentz called his bluff, motioned Tony Moeaki across the formation, got Marvin McNutt on a one-on-one situation AT THE THREE YARD line, ran a slant, and look at the picture above. Again, ONE ON ONE and a three yard SLANT pass was wide open? Truly, SPARTY NOOOOOOO. The Dantonio face after the TD catch was priceless, and totally deserved for the bitter Spartan coach.

Minnesota can relate to these kind of moments, however (Iowa 1994, Northwestern 2000, Michigan 2003 and 2004, Wisconsin 2005, Texas Tech 2006, the month of November 2008). The rules of college football now dictate that even if both teams wet the bed, someone has to win the game. Who is going to choke less? We'll find out tomorrow.

Before getting to some stats and predictions, a couple notes. First, all the best to Eric Decker. He is proof that the Scout and Rivals guys cannot quantify hard work, talent and perseverance. Think of all the fine receivers Minnesota has had over the years. Decker is the finest this university has ever seen (and Brewster, no, it's not an "excellent opportunity" for your team - losing Decker sucks - you ought to know this from November 2008). Unfortunately, that weird step he took on the out pass against Ohio State will directly affect his financial and football future, as it seems he'll need 5-8 months to recover from surgery on the foot. Whoever drafts this guy is getting a steal. Vikings or Lions, please pick him up.

In case you were wondering, had Glen Mason remained as coach, the Gophers' wideouts this year and last would have been Decker and Wisconsin WR David Gilreath. Gilreath, who decommitted after Mason was fired, would have been nice to have around in Decker's absence, both last year and this.

And if you shutter an envious eye at Spartan LB Greg Jones, the preseason Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, don't be too mad when you realize that Jones also de-committed from Minnesota after Mason was fired. Of course, Mason was a terrible recruiter, so this doesn't matter anymore. Jones and Campbell are similar players in production this year. However, Jones is but a junior while Campbell is gone in 2 months. (also, if you remember seeing starting Cal LB Devin Bishop, well, he had committed twice to Minny before Mason was fired, and he then decommitted to go to Cal.)

Alright, on to Saturday. When I previewed this game in August and debuted the term "Wild Rodent," I predicted a 23-20 win for Michigan State. Things haven't really changed this year to change my prediction in any significant way.

The teams line up pretty well in regard to scoring stats. Michigan State averages 27.25 ppg (57th nationally) and gives up 20.75 ppg (39th). On the other hand, Minnesota averages 21.13 ppg (101st) and gives up 25.13 ppg (70th). Based on these stats, empiricists would expect a 26-21 final score in favor of Sparty. Let's throw a couple more statistical and aesthetic logs on the fire:

(1) The biggest log, of course, is the absence of Decker. There are a couple ways this could go. On the one hand, Weber could look lost without his security blanket, will struggle, causing fan unrest (and let's face it, drunken students and fans will not be quiet on Halloween) and causing the coaches (if they're not oblivious) to play more Gray. On the other hand, Weber may feel more comfortable to spread the ball around to everyone, in turn making the Gopher offense more diverse and dangerous. Of course, this will require the Gopher WRs (Brandon, Stoudermire and Carpenter, in particular) to make plays. The chances are there, although without the Decker double-team, Sparty can commit more defenders to the rush. Spreading Sparty out with the pass may be the way to success.

(2) Michigan State has no such issues in the passing game, which could make tomorrow very depressing for Gopher fans. Sparty is 22nd nationally in passing offense, averaging 273.50 ypg. The Gophers, in contrast, are 77th nationally in pass defense, averaging 229.63 ypg. This despite playing Air Force and a first-time college QB (Paulus) in the opener. Sparty has a quality set of wide receivers: walk-on Blair White (who, conveniently, is also white), Mark Dell, BJ Cunningham and TE Charlie Gantt. As Minnesota gives up one passing touchdown each week where no Gopher defender is within 15 yards of the receiver (Air Force, Purdue, Penn State, Ohio State), expect a similar breakdown or two this week.

(3) Go back to #1. How much will MarQueis Gray play? If he does play, remember a couple of things: (a) Gray led his touchdown drive against the second-string Buckeye defense that had called off the dogs. Sparty's first-string defense is top quality. (b) Gray won't progress much past the first option and will be subject to a tough pass rush. Expect growing pains. (c) Remember, if Gray is in, Greg Jones will likely spy him. I'm not sure that will end too well for Gray. Perhaps Illinois's porous defense is a better week in which to further integrate Gray into the game.

(4) The night experience. Who knows how this will go? On the one hand, drunken students make for a raucous crowd. Will they keep the faith if things go wrong? Will they verbally assault Brewster and Fisch if the playcalling (probably) goes haywire? Will the cold sap the life out of the crowd (I saw this first-hand in Iowa City this year - their Homecoming crowd was dead after the second play of the game, a Stanzi INT for TD. The cold also played a large part in it. Frankly, so did playing Journey's "Don't Stop Believing" when the Hawkeyes re-entered the stadium in the second half.)

Well, both teams are 4-4, which is what we thought they were in August. Sparty needs to recover from its SPARTY NOOOOOO moment last week, and needs to recover to meet its preseason bowl expectations. Minnesota continues to build toward success in 2011 (and fans, stop asking for it, because Tim Brewster's going to be here at least until 2011).

I'm not sure what to expect (though when Dantonio's team falls apart at some point tomorrow, I hope you yell SPARTY NOOOOOOOO), but I do know this. If Sparty gives up more than 20 points in 2009, they lose. I don't think it happens tomorrow (at least in regulation):

Michigan State 24 - Minnesota 20.

Preview: Michigan State vs. Northwestern

LVS — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 20:36:02 -0000

[Sorry for the delayed posting. --LVS.]

Hey! Let's celebrate a big comeback which ended up meaning absolutely nothing in one of the worst MSU football seasons ever!

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN
NOON, ESPN2
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY, 42-45 DEGREES

After a tremendously disappointing start to the season, in the last two weeks your Spartans have effectively turned things around, and at least left open the possibility for this to become a successful season. What the 3-game losing streak does mean, though, is that there is no more margin for error, and a game like Saturday's -- at home, against a less-talented team -- has gone from "should win" to "must win," lest our rehabilitated 3-3 record become 3-5 by next Saturday night. Northwestern has had quite a bit of success recently in East Lansing; they've won the last two, including a game in 2007 which stands as our poorest performance under Mark Dantonio. Our upperclassmen will remember that game too clearly to be looking ahead to Iowa. The line on this game, I believe, currently has MSU giving 12.5 points; I think that's awfully generous, but for our purposes, fortunately, beating Northwestern is more important than beating the spread. While we may not do the latter, we will do the former.

NORTHWESTERN SO FAR:

1 blowout against an overmatched 1-AA opponent (Towson);
1 very close call against an overmatched 1-A opponent (Eastern Michigan);
1 sleepwalk-type win against an overmatched 1-A opponent (Miami);
1 halfway-decent road win (but against a team which seems to find new, heartwrenching ways to lose each week -- Purdue);
1 home loss to Minnesota, an understandable defeat to a team that's roughly equivalent to MSU in talent;
1 completely inexcusable close road loss to Syracuse (Syracuse!).

Normally, it'd be difficult to say that a 4-2 record for Northwestern is disappointing, but LTP certainly is, and with some justification:

On the heels of our 9-3 2008 season buoyed by a stellar D, all signs pointed to the best D since 1995 and it has been an adventure to say the least. Our O-line was expected to be the strength of the offense with question marks at the skill positions. Mike Kafka has been a pleasant surprise with his passing and our WR corps is stellar, yet we lack a true Dell or Cunningham-like gamebreaker. Our line play has been weak and our rushing game non-existent. Essentially everything we thought would be great is not and almost vice versa. 5-1 was what we expected as a realistic worst case scenario as fans through those soft 6 games. It has been disappointing to say the least.

Still, 4-2 after 6 games certainly puts Northwestern in a position to play in a good bowl if they're able to pick up a key win or two from here forward. Presumably, Saturday would be one of the games they've circled on their calendar; despite the rough start, this is not a team that has reason to throw in the towel.

Mein bratwurst has a first name, it's "Zeke," mein bratwurst has a second name, it's "Markshausen" . . .

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: . . . hold onto your hat; Northwestern is going to want to play fast. The Wildcats ran 93 offensive plays against MSU last season, and will frequently forego huddling up between snaps. In that regard, it's fortunate that we've already played Michigan: while the offenses aren't exactly the same (Northwestern's much more of a passing team than Michigan is), the Wolverines' frequent no-huddle drives should have prepared us for the pace NU would like to play at.

Northwestern's run game has been a disappointment. Take it away, LTP:

We've stunk. The original starter Stephen Simmons has been out most of the season with an injury and true frosh Arby Fields early-on appeared to be the guy who would get the ball and become our next 4-year RB. However, our line has been horrid and our RBs have yet to show they can elude defenders. Jacob Schmidt, a short yardage back and walk-on turned schollie this year is a feisty guy, but good for 3rd and 2 and not much more. He's got great hands and turned heads with an amazing catch last week though. I can't remember our run game being so much of a detriment.

Sippin' on Purple reports that Simmons is listed first on the NU depth chart for Saturday, so they "might actually see some semblance of a running game this week." Simmons certainly seems to be an improvement over the other options:

RUSHING	GP	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Fields, Arby	6	53	210	20	190	3.6	4	25	31.7
Schmidt, Jacob	6	45	161	2	159	3.5	1	13	26.5
Simmons, Stephen	3	33	153	0	153	4.6	2	14	51.0

Limited sample size, of course, but compared to the other two, Simmons has picked up an extra yard per carry. Furthermore, QB Mike Kafka is a threat with his feet; he has 229 positive rushing yards through 6 games, and exploded into the Big Ten consciousness with a 217 yard (!) rushing effort at Minnesota last year. He's obviously reined in the rushing a bit so far this year, but given MSU's historic difficulties with rushing quarterbacks, I wouldn't be shocked to see some designed keeper plays.

Kafka's been more average passing the ball: he's currently 8th in the conference in passing efficiency (130.04, well behind Kirk Cousins' 141.81, and against lesser competition, of course), and is completing 67% of his passes, with 5 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. LTP says that Kafka "has a great arm, yet we never stretch the field and really go deep"; in my mind, that reinforces the perception that Northwestern is a team which lives and dies on the short passing game. We had tons of trouble with that type of attack against CMU, but we seemed to learn from those mistakes against Michigan.

Not surprisingly, NU's wideouts don't seem to be the deep-threat type: the top receiver is Zeke Markshausen (but can he catch frisbees in his mouth?), who has 34 catches, but for only 348 yards (10.2 average) and no touchdowns. He's not big (5'11", 185), nor fast, and he is white and a walk-on, so I believe he fully qualifies to be called "gritty" and "Welker/Chrebet-like." Drake Dunsmore (sounds like he should be sailing off of Cape Cod, no?) is the second leading receiver, and has remarkably similar numbers: 25 catches for 270 yards (10.8 average) and one touchdown. He's bigger, though: 6'3", 235. LTP also says to keep your eyes on . . .

I think Sidney Stewart might be our biggest threat (had 7 rec last year vs Sparty mostly when game was out of hand). However, I'm a big fan of Jeravin Matthews a tweener WR/RB whoseemingly makes big things happen on every touch ,yet we don't use him NEARLY enough.

. . . so, yeah. Pay attention to those guys, too.

For our defense, expect to see us play a slew of different linebackers, in an attempt to keep fresh through Northwestern's breakneck pace. Chris Norman figures heavily in the plans:

Because the Spartans are expecting more of the same, players such as true freshman outside linebacker Chris Norman better plan to have an expanded role. [ . . . ]

"The other reason is we’re going to have to play multiple people. One of Northwestern’s goals is to wear you down. But when we have athletes like Chris, who can give guys like (starter Brandon) Denson a break, we’re going to use that."

Norman already has one start, against Notre Dame, to his credit, but only six tackles. Junior Jon Misch, who backs up Eric Gordon on the other side, also figures into Tressel’s plans.

Also worth noting: NU has allowed 14 sacks through 6 games against poor competition. Their offensive line is not good. We have 10 in the past two games. We could easily make that 15 or 16 through three games by tomorrow night.

YTMND.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins is your quarterback and Larry Caper is your running back. Sounds pretty nice, eh?

LTP says that the Northwestern secondary is the team's best unit:

Our secondary was banged up and still is. It is our strongest unit though. Sherrick McManis has made some incredible picks and is finally at the lockdown mode we expected him to be after missing a couple of games due to injury. Safety Brendan Smith left last week's game, but his replacement, Brian Peters played extremely well. Jordan Mabin at the other corner is the real deal and can hit hard and Brad Phillips has been up and down, but seemst to have regained his '08 form. It is a solid unit when healthy.

. . . but statistics seem to show that they're a very average unit, albeit one that forces a lot of turnovers. They've been giving up 218 yards per game so far this season (almost 12 yards per completion), and have allowed 10 touchdown passes. But, they do have 10 interceptions, including 3 in the past 3 games for the aforementioned Sherrick McManis (who got the fluffy treatment from Teddy Greenstein in yesterday's Chicago Tribune). I'll suggest the same thing that I did before the Michigan game:

But as to the ~~Donovan Warren~~ Sherrick McManis thing: yeah, given our depth at wide receiver, we should just write off whomever he's covering and go elsewhere.

Furthermore, LTP said that Northwestern is already worried about the deep threat posed by Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham (and I'll throw in Keshawn Martin for good measure); this can't help:

The degree of difficulty increased for Northwestern on Thursday night with the announcement that veteran starting safety Brendan Smith will not play at Michigan State because of a thumb injury.

Smith -- one of only eight players in NU history to be named a co-captain in repeat seasons -- has started 38 games, including the last 19. He also is the leading punt returner for the Cats with an average of 6.6 yards, fourth best in the Big Ten.

With Smith out, Brian Peters will likely make the third start of his career.

Yeah, let's try to take some shots downfield, plz.

Against the rush, Northwestern has been better: they've allowed 716 yards through six games (119 per game), and only 3.48 yards per carry. So, this shouldn't be like it was against Illinois, where (at least in the first half, when we were making a full effort) we could hand the ball off and pretty much be guaranteed somewhere between 6-8 yards. This should be a better test for the offensive line, and for Larry Caper; if we can get solid contributions from the running game, 1) we're going to win this game, and 2) it portends good things for next week, when Iowa will be an even sterner test.

Finally, even though Corey Wootton has been more or less a non-factor so far this year, Northwestern still has 19 sacks on the season, including 4 for linebacker Quentin Davie, and 2 each for LB David Arnold, safety Brad Phillips, and defensive linemen Vince Browne, Corbin Bryant, and Kevin Watt. (The substantial number of sacks from the linebackers and secondary suggest a blitz-happy defense.) We lead the league with only six sacks allowed, and this would be a good week to keep that up, given the Cousins' slight remaining injury, Nichol's injury, and the desire not to burn Andrew Maxwell's redshirt. Honestly, I think we should be all right: the only two players who have really hurt us consistently on the rush are O'Brien Schofield and Brandon Graham, and they're the two best defensive linemen in the conference. If Wootton was healthy, he'd be in that class too, but nothing suggests that he'll be a major threat on Saturday.

THE OBLIGATORY PREDICTION: Wherein I cheat by posting something that I've already written!

The team's play has improved, and Kirk Cousins' return should be a major spark for the team. One thing you didn't mention that may be a factor: I understand that NU's offensive line has been a problem, and that plays right into our hands. MSU had 10 sacks and 18 TFLs against Michigan and Illinois, and the interior of our defensive line has been blasting into the backfield right on the snap.

Honestly, I'm shocked that the line on this game is this high. Everyone remembers what happened the last time NU came to East Lansing, so I'm sure the team and the coaching staff aren't going to be looking past this game. (Many fans, on the other hand, may already have moved their thoughts onto the Iowa game, so the stadium atmosphere may be somewhat lacking.) I think it should be an entertaining game, like most in this series have been, but our defense has really stepped up the past two weeks and I think that trend will continue. 27-17, MSU.

Your thoughts?

Preview Like Substance: Michigan State

Beauford — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:04:23 -0000

Michigan takes their defense shreddin' show on the road this weekend to East Lansing, home of the Michigan State Agricultural and Technical School known simply as "The Aggies." I made that part up. They're actually Spartans, which isn't gay at all.

via www.clickthecity.com

Nope. Not at all. Anyways, the weeks preceding any Michigan vs. Michigan State game are usually filled with blustery comments from a team perpetually on the rise, and this year is no different. Oh, there it is:

Mark Dantonio is the man credited with the Michigan State turnaround, bringing them back to prominance and glory, insulting the physical stature of Michigan players on his way:

Dantonio on Mike Hart's "Little Brother" Comments (via MichiganSportsCenter)

Offense

So what can the Wolverines expect from the latest Michigan State team to "turn it around?" Well, not a whole lot in the way of defense. As mentioned in a previous post, Michigan State's defense is considerably worse than Indiana's, and their passing defense is one of the worst in the country. Their rushing defense has been good not great, and that theoretically plays to their advantage as Michigan brings their top-ranked rushing unit into town. The key here is making sure that their one star linebacker - Greg Jones - has a body or two on him every play. The defensive line is going through some injury problems, and is paper thin. The run-stuffing onus is going to be put on the linebacking crew who, frankly, aren't very good except that Jones can be super man when he wants to and make up for the lack of talent everywhere else.

I look for Michigan to throw some wrinkles into their zone-dive heavy runs. With the linebackers no doubt aware of the potent rushing attack, they will be susceptible to those little screens and slot-ninja awesomeness that Michigan runs off the zone-dive look. If I were a betting man, I'd also say that Michigan is going to deploy something offensively that we haven't seen yet. There's a reason Rodriguez and co. shut down practice to outsiders this week, you know.

If Tate remains upright and continues his accuracy on the run, I would think that the passing game is actually going to be a more successful venture for this offense. Michigan State is going to set up to defend that run at all cost. Forcier should have the opportunity for a big day. Like Brian has mentioned in his preview - I look for a heavy dose of Koger as well after seeing Wisconsin TE's run wild. And please - no more Webb? I don't have a solid understanding of X's and O's, but it seems that he's dropped a few that have hit him right in the numbers while Koger is busy catching misthrown balls by using the force or something. Just throw to Koger, mkay?

Defense

Meanwhile, the Michigan State offense is actually pretty effective throwing the ball themselves with starter Cousins, and to a lesser extent Nichol. In my season preview of Michigan State I predicted that Nichol would eventually start over Cousins, but I was wrong, wrong, wrong. Cousins has been accurate, except when pressured. When pressured, this happens (fast forward to about the 9 minute mark for Cousins):

2009: Notre Dame vs. Michigan State (College Football Highlights) (via JB5GoIrish)

So yeah, just like every other opponent we've faced this year, if our pass coverage is to be successful, it will be pressure that makes it successful. We were good at this against Western, atrocious against Notre Dame, and semi-good against Indiana. Eastern doesn't count. Cornerbacks can succeed playing off in coverage if a quarterback is hurried into making questionable throws. Cover-2. It works. But if Graham and co. are getting bottled up at the LOS, it's going to be another looong day in pass coverage. I predict that Mark Dell will have at least one completion for 40+ yards. If he gets more than one, we're going to have trouble winning this game.

The MSU rushing attack isn't special at just 117 YPG. That's good for 10th in the Big Ten. What's nice about this particular feature of the Michigan State offense is that Graham probably won't have to worry too much about the run and will likely be directed to "kill Cousins as early and often as possible." This should, should, allow him to become the pass rush beast he's always been, and hopefully allow for a sack or two. Just moving Cousins off his spot will be very important. If you look at Roh's success is getting into the backfield, it's almost always a result of Graham providing pressure that forces the ball carrier to roll into Roh. I think this is a game in which both Roh and Graham can get really nasty.

Speaking of pressuring the quarterback, and as SCM points out daily now, I would like to see a few more designed blitzes for Ezeh. He's been so tentative so far this season, why not get him mixed up in the action at the LOS? It would make it nearly impossible for him to play passive. I'm sure there are any number of holes in this logic, it just seems to me that he's better when he's got a clear idea of where to attack instead of saying "here is a hole, I must plug it quickly."

Prediction: Michigan is going to need every ounce of offense they can muster, and there are so many wildcards affecting this that it makes predictions tough. Will Tate be ok on the road? Hell, will the entire youth of this team be ok on the road? Will his shoulder hold up? Will the defense get pressure? Will it be raining as hard as they've been predicting?

This puppy is going to be a shootout. My prediction is 42-38 Michigan. Take the over.

GO BLUE

via farm1.static.flickr.com

File Under "Discrepant Statistics"

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:00:17 -0000

Michigan State University leads the Big Ten in total offense:

TOTAL OFFENSE            G  Rush Pass Plays Yards Avg/P TD Yds/G
----------------------------------------------------------------
1. Michigan State......  4   471 1283   264  1754   6.6 16 438.5
2. Wisconsin...........  4   791  921   274  1712   6.2 18 428.0
3. Michigan............  4   961  728   279  1689   6.1 19 422.2
4. Purdue..............  4   706  978   273  1684   6.2 17 421.0
5. Northwestern........  4   522 1145   295  1667   5.7 16 416.8
6. Indiana.............  4   637  956   277  1593   5.8 11 398.2
7. Penn State..........  4   509  990   270  1499   5.6 13 374.8
8. Ohio State..........  4   724  744   256  1468   5.7 12 367.0
9. Iowa................  4   574  817   274  1391   5.1 11 347.8
10.Illinois............  3   576  467   198  1043   5.3  7 347.7
11.Minnesota...........  4   423  886   250  1309   5.2 11 327.2

You have to do a lot of things wrong to turn that table into a 1-3 record. A partial list of those things follows the jump.

Ranking 10th in the league in pass defense (only 4 yards per game ahead of last-place Illinois).
Producing a turnover margin of negative 3--tied for second worst in the league. (That's entirely a function of the Wisconsin game.)
Ranking 10th in first downs allowed. ("Bend and then bend some more" defense.)
Ranking 10th in opponents' third-down conversion percentage.
Ranking last (in a tie) in opponents' fourth-down conversion percentage (4/5=80%).
Ranking 11th in time of possession.
Ranking 3rd in most penalty yards perpetrated (although that's actually been offset by ranking first in opponents' penalty yards).
Ranking 10th in kickoff coverage

The #1 total offense ranking has been overwhelmingly a function of the passing game. MSU ranks first in the league in passing offense--a full 35 yards per game ahead of #2 Northwestern. Meanwhile, the team ranks 10th in rushing offense, ahead of only Minnesota (and that's not a function of sacks: only 3 allowed for 17 yards to date). The passing stats are padded by the 231 passing yards the two QBs racked up after MSU had already fallen behind Wisconsin by three TDs on Saturday. But even if you take, say, the 91-yard TD to Keshawn Martin out of the equation, MSU would still rank first in the league in pass offense and in the middle of the league in total offense.

(Note regarding the passing game: Let's not overlook the plays our receivers made on Saturday. Imagine what the final score of the game would have looked like if Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham hadn't made those TD catches in tight coverage.)

(Additional sidenote: I suppose it make sense that ranking first in the Big Ten in passing offense wouldn't get you anywhere this season. After all, the key conference win thus far this season was posted by a team whose quarterback threw for 135 yards and 2 INTs.)

Looking ahead to the Michigan game, our hopes can only rest with the offense. The defense has now allowed at least 29 points and over 400 total yards to three consecutive opponents of the good-but-not-exactly-national-championship-contender quality. It's unlikely things suddenly gel the week before we play the most exotic offense we've seen yet. (The Forcier injury may help some--but it also means you have to be that much more prepared for a Denard Robinson-led run-heavy scheme.)

The good news is that Michigan's defense has only been a notch less horrid than ours has. They've actually allowed more total yardage than MSU--albeit in a more balanced manner, ranking 8th in the league in both pass defense and run defense. Offsetting the yardage numbers, they've been significantly better in the red zone defense and turnover creation departments.

If ever the term "must-win game" applied, it applies this week. A loss to our recently basement-dwelling in-state rivals wouldn't just hurt from an emotional standpoint. It would also mean that 5 wins in 7 games would be needed just to get to (maybe-)bowl-eligible status.

Let's hope our redshirt sophomore quarterback (and captain) and his ten colleagues on offense are up to the challenge.

(Prediction/hope: Mark Dantonio continues to pay lip service to the two-QB system, just to throw a mild wrinkle in Michigan's defensive game planning. But Kirk Cousins plays every series on Saturday. Please? If we lose this game, then I'm fine with rotating QBs every other quarter/series/play for the remainder of the schedule.)

Balanced attack leads to big win over MSU

Adam Hoge — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 21:48:46 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Wisconsin running back John Clay (32) leaps past Michigan State's Jeremy Ware (9) and Chris L. Rucker (29) during the second half of the Badgers 38-30 over Michigan State Saturday.. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Browse more photos »

Calm down Wisconsin. The Badgers' running game is back.

During the UW football team's 3-0 start, the Badgers used a potent passing attack to average 35 points per game, while the running game looked very average, despite putting up 199 rushing yards per game.

Saturday, the Badgers used a very balanced offensive attack, passing and running all over the Spartans, during a 38-30 win that wasn't as close as the scoreboard suggested.

John Clay rushed for 142 yards on 32 carries, while Scott Tolzien threw for 243 yards and four touchdowns while completing 19-of-31 passes.

"John knew he had to get it right," head coach Bret Bielema said, referring to the sophomore's three fumbles against Wofford last week. "And he knew the only person that was going to do that was him. So he went through it and didn't put the ball on the ground during practice all week."

He didn't put the ball on the ground during the game either. And when Zach Brown fumbled in the third quarter, Bielema told Clay he had to bring the team home.

"He told me, 'We got to finish this game out mistake free and limit our turnovers," Clay said.

The defense held Michigan State to a field goal and went to Clay to start running out the clock. Wisconsin went on a 17-play, 50-yard drive that took 7:33 off the clock and resulted in a Phillip Welch 41-yard field goal to take a 24-10 lead. Clay received 10 carries on the drive and accounted for 33 of the 50 yards.

"I'm just happy the coaches gave me a chance to go out there and prove they count on me and need me as much I need them. I feel very honored by that," Clay said.

While the running attack gained some momentum Saturday, the passing game didn't lose any. Tolzien continued to impress, completing big pass plays to Issac Anderson and Nick Toon, while also finding tight end Garrett five times. Three of Graham's catches went for touchdowns.

Wisconsin's offense is starting to look like a legitimate balanced attack. Most importantly, it only committed only one turnover, resulting in a plus-three turnover margin for the Badgers on the day.

"It doesn't matter who is going to get the ball," Clay said. "We know that whoever touches it, something big is going to happen."

Another late comeback

It appeared Wisconsin was set to blow the Spartans away when it held a 38-17 lead with the ball in Michigan State territory mid-way through the fourth quarter. Instead, the Spartans forced a punt and scored two late touchdowns to keep it a one-score game.

In fact, Michigan State had the opportunity to recover an on-side kick with 15 seconds left, but the ball bounced to David Gilreath who secured it for the win.

The opportunity came after backup quarterback Keith Nichol hit Keshawn Martin for a 91-yard touchdown pass on the first play after a UW punt. Nichol and Martin had hooked up for another score just two minutes earlier.

"We made it a little more difficult there at the end," Bielema said. "We had a busted coverage that resulted in a big play that got us in the that little tense situation the last 15 seconds. But I am not going to let that take away from something that we can easily correct as coaches."

It appeared Antonio Fenelus had a mix-up on what coverage the defense was playing. He let Martin go by him and Chris Maragos was not expecting it.

"Fenelus, he comes up and slaps me on the backside and said, "No need to worry coach." You know there at the end of the game and I look at the little devil, I wanted to slap him upside the head," Bielema said. "But he knows what he is talking about."

And while Bielema said the coaches can get the mistakes corrected, he added a positive spin on Michigan State's mini-comeback.

"The good thing is, the score ended up a lot closer than it really was and that will help us keep quietly creeping along," he said.

Henry: Finishing is the final goal

On the doors of the UW weight room, the five team goals for 2009 are listed: 1) Daily preparation to win, 2) Re-establish Wisconsin football, 3) Relentless toughness, 4) Win for each other, and 5) Finish.

It could be argued that Wisconsin succeeded greatly in accomplishing the first four goals Saturday, but failed miserably at the fifth.

"I think as a secondary we played very very well in the first half and we just need to finish our last goal and that's finish," Aaron Henry said after the game.

Henry was very hard on himself this week after a mediocre first three games that included a number of pass interference penalties and a bad flu bug.

"Nobody is going to be harder on me and than me," he said. "I definitely think I took a step forward. I did have some plays made on me and I made some plays too. The thing is as a cornerback, you have to be short minded. Things are going to happen."

One of the plays Henry gave up was a second quarter 14-yard touchdown to Mark Dell that tied the game at seven. Henry had good coverage on the MSU wideout, but his turn to the ball was late and Dell made a tough catch to pull in the touchdown. The play proved that Henry is making strides, but just isn't quite there yet.

"[Cornerbacks coach Kerry Crooks] wants me to open and turn towards to the reciever and not open up towards the ball," Henry said. "I actually opened up away from the receiver. It's still something I got to work on but it's a whole lot better than pass interference."

Extra points

Wisconsin was 11-of-18 on third down while Michigan State was only 3-of 10... UW dominated the time of possession, holding the ball for 37:29 as opposed to MSU's 22:31. The Badgers appeared to escape any major injuries. John Moffitt twisted his left ankle in the fourth quarter but was fine after the game... Bret Bielema is now 16-0 in 11 AM CT starts at home. "Oh, I'm well aware of my 11 o'clock record," he said after the game.

Preview: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin

LVS — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 18:09:00 -0000

Thanks for one good memory, JLS.

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the WISCONSIN BADGERS
CAMP RANDALL STADIUM, MADISON, WISCONSIN
NOON, ESPN
WEATHER: 67 DEGREES, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN

Before the season, most observers expected for MSU to struggle offensively, but make up for with defense. Of course, after the last two weeks, that seems like a big lololololololololol, as our defense has put us in a position where we basically have to outscore the opponent. Against two of the better offenses we'll see all season, we failed barely -- but certainly miserably -- to do that. And so here we are, stuck with essentially the worst case scenario: 1-2, with our only win against an FCS team, heading into Camp Randall (where we haven't won since 2001) to play 3-0 Wisconsin. If last week was a big game, this one is now even bigger and more important, as we've obviously done an awful job of padding our record in the OOC schedule, and now have to salvage our season in conference play. Ending the losing streak and getting off on the right foot is incredibly, incredibly important.

But hey, it's cool. We're going to win.

First, let's talk about Wisconsin for a minute. Their three wins have been:

An 8-point home win against a middle-of-the-pack MAC team, Northern Illinois. (I'll admit that this win looks at least a little bit better after NIU took down a corpse-like Purdue team last week.)
A double overtime, 3-point win at home against Fresno State, a team which doesn't exactly play to the level of the David Carr-era vintage any longer.
A blowout against Wofford, an FCS team.

For one thing, I'm completely certain that MSU would have an identical 3-0 record against those teams at this point. Second, if past performance is any indication, Wisconsin's early-season success isn't necessarily going to roll right into the conference season. Remember, they went 3-0 OOC in 2008 before starting 0-4 in Big Ten play. So, anyway, while 3-0 vs. 1-2 certainly impacts upon the general mental state of both teams, I'm equally certain that they tell us very little about which team has been playing better. Furthermore, everything that's written henceforth about Wisconsin comes with the "their OOC schedule is garbage" caveat. Anyway . . .

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: Prior to the season, most would have expected Dustin Sherer to start for the Badgers; however, Scott Tolzien won the starting job during the offseason and, by in large, has looked quite good through the first three games. (Sherer is currently third on the depth chart. Bret Bielema: crazy, or crazy like a fox?) Tolzien is currently completing around 70% of his passes:

Rating	Att	Comp	Comp %	TDs	INTs	Long	Yds	YPG
161.83	47	68	69.1	4	2	80	641	213.7

Those numbers include a 281 yard performance against NIU. At the risk of looking through the stereotype lens, it appears that Tolzien is another reasonably-effective game manager, in the mold of every Wisconsin quarterback since, like, ever. Nonetheless, this will be the biggest start of his nascent career; if we can pressure him a bit, that should go a long way toward being successful tomorrow. We were a little better in that regard against Notre Dame; if anything, Wisconsin should be even more reliant than the Irish on 4-and-5 step drops, so the opportunity is there.

Furthermore, as you might have read yesterday, B5Q thinks that we could see a bit of Curt Phillips at quarterback for the Badgers:

But Bielema insists he will use quarterback Curt Phillips if the flow of the game calls for it. Phillips can run – he led the team with 92 rushing yards last week – and if Michigan State has been struggling against spread offenses and wildcat formations, you will probably see the UW offense mix it up a little bit with Phillips at quarterback.

At receiver, the Badgers look a bit like Central Michigan: they feature one big possession-type receiver (Nick Toon) and one little speedburner, presumably from the slot (Isaac Anderson). Toon, whose dad is former Jets wideout Al Toon, is the Badgers' leading receiver with 15 catches for 191 yards and 1 touchdown. However, he doesn't exactly seem like a big-play threat: he's averaging only a shade over 12 yards per catch, and his longest play this year was a 22-yarder. I'd expect for Ross Weaver, who's the bigger and more physical of our corners, to be matched up with Toon most of the game. Anderson, conversely, is the gamebreaker: he has only 7 catches on the season, but those catches have gone for 170 yards (24.3 yards per catch!), including an 80-yard touchdown against NIU.

As you'd might expect, the Badgers heavily involve their tight end in the passing game: Garrett Graham has 11 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. It's sort of been lost in the shuffle how Kyle Rudolph did a ton of damage against us last week, with 6 catches for 95 yards. We can't afford for Graham to replicate those numbers this week.

Lets' imagine for a minute, that everything before the 4th quarter of last year's Wisconsin game actually happened. (This might be painful.) Probably the single defining characteristic of those three quarters (and the first part of the fourth) was our complete inability to stop Wisconsin's ground game: P.J. Hill ran 20 times for 106 yards, but the contributions of then-freshman John Clay were more devastating: 14 carries for 111 yards and a touchdown, and that doesn't include a big touchdown run in the 4th quarter that was called back for holding. (Yes, Badger fans, it was a hold.) P.J. Hill declared "for the NFL" (ha!) but Clay is back -- sort of. He lost the starting job in training camp, then won it back with a 143-yard performance against Fresno State, and then took that opportunity and fumbled it away -- literally -- by coughing the ball up three times against Wofford last week. Clay's replacement, Zach Brown, also fumbled once. Nonetheless, I'm sure Bielema remembers our struggles against Clay last year; I have to believe that he'll be the primary Badger back tomorrow. Clay was highly recruited from high school; he's big (a Caulcrick-like 250 pounds) fast, and tough. Our rush defense wasn't terrible against Notre Dame last week, but an even bigger effort this week certainly wouldn't hurt.

As for our personnel: after being posterized (is this a word in football?) two weeks in a row, Chris L. Rucker, mercifully, won't be getting the start this week; Kendell Davis-Clark is your second cornerback. I like this move both for motivational purposes, and also because something really needed to be done. KDC has been fairly good over the past few years; normally I'd say that there'll be very little drop-off, but there's not too much further down we can go compared to the past two weeks. As far as I know, Trenton Robinson will still start over Danny Fortener.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: Wisconsin's secondary was supposed to be good:

Wisconsin's secondary will be the strength of their defense, returning three out of the four starters including junior cornerback Niles Brinkley (5-10, 180), who had a team-high five interceptions last year, and hard-hitting junior safety Jay Valai (5-9, 200) was a second-team All-Big Ten selection after recording 56 tackles and forcing three fumbles in 2008.

But, happily enough, they kinda, you know, suck!

The cornerbacks look awful. Surprisingly, the front seven looks great and free safety Chris Maragos has been all over the field. Unfortunately he can’t cover three wide receivers at one time and apparently UW’s cornerbacks don’t even have the ability to cover one receiver at a time. Sophomore Aaron Henry, who was supposed to be the conference’s best corner, looks confused out there and Antonio Fenelus, Niles Brinkley and Devin Smith couldn’t cover a 90 year-old man playing wideout. If defensive ends O’Brien Schofield and J.J. Watt don’t have career days, Cousins might throw for four touchdowns.

Fresno State passed for 289 yards against the Badgers, and everything I've read suggests that it may have looked even worse than the statistics indicate. Wisconsin's Scout site suggests that the Badger secondary needs this game for "redemption." I strongly doubt that Kirk Cousins will allow that to happen. One caveat: Wisconsin, led by Schofield and Watt, has been fairly effective in rushing the quarterback so far. They have seven sacks this season; our pass blocking this year has been quite good, but the offensive line will be tested.

As I've said previously, for me, the biggest positive about last week's game was the re-emergence of Mark Dell. If he can keep playing well, I don't think anyone in the conference has a better wide receiver corps than Blair White, Dell, and B.J. Cunningham. Given Wisconsin's difficulties defending the pass against lesser opponents, I think we're going to put up a ton of yards through the air.

The Badgers have also looked somewhat vulnerable against the run: they've allowed 493 yards (and a fairly middling 3.8 ypc) and 4 touchdowns over the first three games. Wisconsin's defensive line doesn't have an Erasmus James-type run swallower this year, but, as always, they're big and physical: DT Jeff Stehle, for instance, is 6'6", 310. Larry Caper's effort against ND probably moved our rushing game off run support; this isn't a great Wisconsin rush defense, but clearly the run game is playing second fiddle in our offense. I'd expect our rush output to be around 125-ish; if we go well above that, we're almost certainly winning. Garrett Celek is back in the lineup for MSU this week; he's good in the passing game, but even more importantly, he's probably the best-blocking tight end we have. It also appears that Nitchman might be able to go, which would be another big boost for the line and the rushing game.

FINAL PREDICTION: I feel very, very good about this game. Wisconsin has looked meh against meh competition, we're desperate, and I like everything I've heard from the team this week. More importantly, I think the Badgers are just a good matchup for our team: I think our passing game is clearly better than their pass defense, and I don't think their passing game is nearly as prepared to take advantage of our glaring weaknesses in the secondary. This game may be frustrating at times, because Wisconsin is going to be able to gain first downs on the ground, but I can't see them landing the knockout blow -- and I certainly can see us doing it. Wisconsin's good at home, but we were oh-so-close to winning there two years ago. This year, we won't fall short. MSU 34, Wisconsin 27.