SB Nation - Brian Hoyer

Texas Tech v MSU in the Alamo Bowl: Do past bowl results tell us anything about this game?

grahamfiller10 — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 18:49:17 -0000

I am hardly excited about this match-up, as everyone can explain what exactly Michigan State needs to do for a chance at winning, but no one can explain how exactly this is going to happen. Everyone and their mother knows Michigan State can't defend the pass and that defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi refuses to play anything other than two ineffective schemes. Everyone also knows that the magic of the Texas Tech attack comes from the Air Raid principles of Mike Leach, which includes an amalgamation of shallow crossing routes, comeback routes, dumpoffs in space, and quick screens.

Here is the numbers breakdown from The Only Colors, of course highlighting the fact that TT has the #2 passing offense in the nation and MSU has the #103 pass defense.

But let's save the scheming and gnashing of Spartan teeth for another day and discuss some past bowl games results. Could this game be closer than everyone believes?

How do the Spartans look in bowl games and what does this say about the 2010 Alamo Bowl? MSU is currently on a 3 game bowl losing streak: '03 to Nebraska, '07 to BC and '08 to Georgia. The Georgia game was a decent indicator - MSU played tough against the run and kept the game close until it became apparent that Brian Hoyer wasn't going to be able lead the Spartans to victory through the air with Ringer bottled up. MSU even led at the half, 6-3. So essentially, they were who everyone thought they were, a solid defense with not enough offense.

How do the Red Raiders look in bowl games and what does this say about the 2010 Alamo Bowl? A 10-21-1 bowl record doesn't diminish the fact that Texas Tech has been bowling consistently for two decades, competing in 16 bowl games in the last 25 years. However, the last three years give excellent indication of what happens come Holiday time to Leach's Raiders.

30	W	12-29-2006	44	Minnesota	41	Insight Bowl
31	W	01-01-2008	31	Virginia	28	Gator Bowl
32	L	01-02-2009	34	Mississippi	47	Cotton Bowl

No shortage of points, but not exactly stingy defense either. Don't forget that the 2008 version featured Graham Harrell and Mike Crabtree, but Ole Miss put a lickin' on 'em anyways.

Now I understand perfectly that football games exist in a vacuum and that some TT defensive back isn't going to be thinking about an '06 performance while on the field. This is a brand new matchup with new players at key positions (no Otis Wiley, Crabtree, Ringer, Harrell). But I've decided that, in the spirit of the holidays, each Alamo Bowl post will have some form of optimistic Spartan bent to it. It's not propaganda, more like inspiration for all those Sparties depressed about the 10 suspended players, no running back depth, and a matchup from hell with Leach's minions.

So let me say this: Texas Tech's offensive makes them seem like an unattractive bowl match-up, including last year when only 1 out of 12 OPC contestants picked Ole Miss over TT. This is perfectly understandable, especially when one sees the Air Raid scenario's and plays like the one below. How is my team going to prepare for this in one month, you ask, and do we really have the horses to stop a team scoring almost 40 points a game? Well for the last three years, medium-level programs from the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten have held their own against Texas Tech. So don't lose all hope yet Spartans.

Conversations With the Enemy: Talking Penn State with Run Up The Score

LVS — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:07:03 -0000

More photos » by TONY DING - AP

about 1 month ago: Penn State tight end Andrew Quarless (10) scores a touchdown after a 60-yard reception in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Michigan, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009, in Ann Arbor, Mich. (AP Photo/Tony Ding)

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Hello again. I traded a few questions about Saturday's EPIC rivalry game with Run Up The Score from Black Shoe Diaries, SBN's leviathan Penn State blog. My answers to his questions should be up at BSD shortly.

Below, I'm in bold.

MSU-PSU: great rivalry or greatest rivalry?

Greatest, of course! How else could you explain two teams fighting over a pre-school arts and crafts monstrosity like the Land Grant Trophy?

Penn State allowed almost 300 yards passing against Indiana last Saturday; that statistic alone gives MSU fans at least some hope, as our offense is essentially pass-or-bust this year. How has PSU's pass defense been this season? Are there any clear vulnerabilities in the secondary?

Keep in mind that Indiana threw the ball 51 times and was playing from behind in the second half last week, but yes, the larger point is that teams know it's better to throw on Penn State than attempt to run. I would not be remotely surprised if MSU attempts close to 50 passes on Saturday, although I doubt they'll reach the 61 passes thrown by Brian Hoyer against PSU back in 2006 -- and that was in a 17-13 game. Penn State can be thrown on, but they do their best to protect any obvious liabilities in the secondary. Free Safety Nick Sukay has steadily improved throughout the year. Drew Astorino (#28) plays the other safety position, and it's no secret that he's trying to fight through a shoulder injury. CB A.J. Wallace sustained a concussion last week, he's listed as "possible" for Sparty. So there may be opportunities for you in the passing game.

[More, after the jump.]

PSU leads the conference in sacks. Does the pressure come primarily from the defensive line, or will the Lions regularly mix in blitz packages?

Penn State loves to just send the defensive line if they can get away with it. The defensive scheme actually depends on it, but PSU's defensive ends have been several notches below their predecessors. There's no Aaron Maybin, Maurice Evans, or Tamba Hali on this defensive line, so they'll send linebackers on occasion, and maybe mix in a corner blitz once or twice per game, but that's it.

The book on Darryl Clark seems to be that he's fantastic if given time, but quickly becomes very average if he's subjected to pressure. Is that mostly correct? What are his major strengths and weaknesses?

He's like about any other good, but not great, quarterback. If he has a clean pocket and can set his feet, he's as good as anyone in the country. If he gets hit too much, he gets rattled and starts making bad decisions with the ball. In that sense, he can be knocked back into looking like a talented quarterback in his second or third start -- he thinks he can make throws that he can't actually pull off.

Can you tell us a bit about PSU's receivers and tight ends? Our pass defense has been atrocious, and Andrew Quarless, in particular, worries me greatly.

Starting WR Chaz Powell is out for the game with a shoulder injury. In his place, you'll see a rotating group including the very tall Brett Brackett and the very quick Curtis Drake. Maybe true freshman Justin Brown gets in the game, but I doubt it. Graham Zug had a nightmare game against Indiana last week, but that was mostly due to fumbling punts. He runs good routes and gets open against passive zone coverages. Really, that goes for the whole group -- if you can press and bump them, they become ineffective quickly.

As for Quarless, he has all the talent in the world but had squandered it until this season with various off-field issues. He scares a lot of teams, although he's only broken 50 yards receiving once this year, due to a 60 yard touchdown catch against Michigan. Derek Moye is probably our best receiver, but he was totally shut out by Ohio State's press coverage and only had two catches for 28 yards against Indiana. Because of that, I suspect PSU will make an effort to get him involved quickly.

Special teams have seemed to be a major problem all season long for PSU. Have things improved at all in recent weeks? If not, which areas are the most dire? (Happily enough, MSU's special teams have been mostly fantastic all season long.)

Improved? No, no. It's a worsening nightmare by the week. Penn State is 113th in kickoff returns, 107th in punt returns, 114th in net punting, 57th in kickoff coverage, and 117th in punt return yardage allowed. On top of that, our punt returners (Zug and Astorino) went from being Designated Fair Catchers to dropping everything in sight last week. So relatively speaking, we're downright awesome in covering kickoffs. In our two losses, the game turned on a blocked punt for a touchdown against Iowa and a punt return inside the 10 yard line by Ohio State's Ray Small.

Is there anyone on offense or defense for PSU that MSU fans probably haven't heard of, but that we should keep an eye on?

Curtis Drake is a good candidate on offense. He's a true freshman receiver, and is extremely elusive with the ball in his hands. Last week, PSU's offense was jumpstarted by a long gainer on an end-around by Drake. Defensively, freshman Stephon Morris has seen a lot of time in Penn State's nickel package and has played well beyond anyone's expectations. Given Michigan State's propensity to throw the ball, you'll see a lot of him Saturday.

Finally, generally speaking, how are you feeling about the game?

Justifiably nervous. I don't like hearing that Michigan State excels on special teams -- that's a huge point that can't be overlooked. Penn State tends to start slowly, especially on the road, and that seems to be an especially bad idea this week with a possible BCS at-large bid on the line. Michigan State will be plenty motivated, given the beating they received last year at Beaver Stadium and Mark Dantonio's pissy-pants antics of calling two defensive timeouts during the waning seconds of the game in sub-freezing temperatures. And every Penn State fan is expecting a minimum of two special teams disasters.

Thanks to RUTS, and I wish his team only the absolute worst luck this Saturday.

Michigan State preview

BoilerTMill — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:52:29 -0000

When I saw this game on the schedule I felt it was the biggest toss-up of the year. I expected to be teetering on the edge of bowl eligibility at this point (certainly without wins over Ohio State and Michigan) but I didn't know what to think of the Spartans. Being game 11, it was hard to predict how seasons would turn out on both sides. I felt confidence about beating Indiana, but I have virtually ignored Michigan State for multiple reasons. First, the game felt far off. Second, it later felt like the game would not matter. Now that it is here, I still don't know what to think.

I am really surprised that this is the best offense in the Big Ten. I am more surprised that their defense has been so bad. Like Ben and I discussed in the podcast last night, just about the opposite was expected from the Spartans. The defense has been pretty good at home, but has struggled mightily on the road. As Ben said though, they have faced better offenses (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Minnesota) on the road than at home (Western Michigan, Montana State, Michigan).

In short this is a huge game for both teams, though we have less of a margin for error (none) than Michigan State.

2009 Record: 5-5, 3-3 Big Ten

2008 Record: 9-4, 6-2 Big Ten

Bowl Result: lost Capitol One Bowl 24-12 to Georgia

Blog Representation: The Only Colors, The Enlightened Spartan, Sparty MSU

Series with Purdue: Michigan State leads 30-28-3

Last Purdue win: 11/4/2006 at Michigan State 17-15

Last Michigan State win: 11/8/2008 at Michigan State 21-7

Long lost brothers meet again

Michigan State offense:

This is really the best offense statistically in the Big Ten? I guess you're right. Michigan is flaky. Ohio State wins with defense, as does Iowa Most of the time. Minnesota has had one great offensive game against Michigan State. Indiana is surprisingly good. Illinois has only been good for two weeks. Northwestern is opportunistic. Purdue moves the ball, but we give it away almost as much as we score. Penn State can't score against good teams. Wisconsin is afraid to pass. That leaves Michigan State.

The Spartans don't have a dominant running back like Javon Ringer any more, but their running game is surprisingly balanced. No one has run for more than 400 yards, but seven players have at least 100 yards rushing (compared to three such players for us). Leading rusher Larry Coyer (375 yard, 6 TD's) is a question mark after suffering a concussion a few weeks ago, but Ashton Leggett (110-4) took over the position with authority last week by running for 110 yards and 4 TD's on 14 carries. He had one carry for 0 yards previously, and that came in the season opener against Montana State. Edwin Baker (242-0) also had his best game of the season last week with 15 carries for 78 yards.

Ashton Leggett had a breakout game against Western Michigan

At quarterback we will see both kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol. Thoughts on that issue are best summed up here by the Michigan State faithful. Cousins (158-148, 14 TD, 5 INT, 2,097 yards) has been by far the better quarterback, but Mark Dantonio insists on getting Nichol (45-86, 6 TD, 3 INT, 680 yards) some work in each game. The duo has combined to be the best passing attack in the league, so our secondary will be tested. Expect Cousins to start and Nichol to play.

Nichol and Cousins like to spread the ball around, though there is one top receiver to focus on. Blair White (58-836-7) will remind Purdue fans a lot of Chris Daniels. He is one of the conference's top receivers and will be the number one option on many plays. B.J. Cunningham (41-510-3) is a solid second option as Michigan State will likely look to pass first. Tight end Brian Linthicum (18-259-2) gives each quarterback a reliable safety valve and goal line option. Keshawn Martin (12-251-3) is a speedy deep threat. He has a 91 yard score on his resume this season. Mark Dell (25-392-1) can also be a deep option.

The reason that Michgian State's passing game has been so successful is its offensive line. The Spartans have given up just 12 sacks on the year, but they have yet to see a pass rush as fierce as ours. I fear another Wisconsin game because Michigan State has a big, experienced offensive line. Seniors Brendon Moss, Joel Nitchman, and Rocco Cironi form the core, but juniors Joel Foreman and D.J. Young are hardly stiffs. This is not a tall line, but they are compact and strong. We must respond tot heir physicality better than we did against Wisconsin.

Michigan State defense:

While our defense may struggle to slow down their very good passing game, our own passing game should have plenty of room to move as long as we can avoid turnovers. Michigan State defends the run well, giving up barely more than 100 yards per game. They are giving up over 230 yards per game through the air with a whopping 22 touchdowns. Ball security could be even more of an issue. Michigan State has forced only 11 turnovers this season, so it is critical that we don't help them out with dumb turnovers like we have helped other teams all year long.

The run defense begins with one of the best linebackers in the Big Ten, if not the entire country. Greg Jones is a beast of a player in the middle. He already has 117 tackles (11 for loss) 7.5 sacks, and a fumble recovery. He loves to get after the quarterback, and you can bet he will end up wherever the ball is. Fellow linebackers Brandon Denson (54 tackles) and Eric Gordon (70 tackles) help him out. All three are the top tacklers for Michigan State.

Michigan State starts a pair of senior defensive ends in Trevor Anderson (4 sacks) and Colin Neely (2 sacks). Tackles Jerel Worthy and Oren Wilson are stout against the run, while Worthy can get into the backfield with 4.5 sacks. Wilson is a big nose tackle that will be difficult to get around in the middle of the line, but we mostly run outside anyway.

The Spartan secondary can be exploited. Corners Chris Rucker and Jeremy Ware have been disappointing this year. Each has just one interception, but more than 40 tackles. Marcus Hyde and Dan Fortener have played every game at the safety spots, but have only one interception between them. We should have some room to move in the passing game since coverage is not their strong suit.

Michigan State Special Teams:

Aaron Bates is one of the league's better punters at 42 yards per kick. Teams are averaging 8 yards per return against him, but we seem to be employing a strategy of catching the ball then falling down of late, so it doesn't matter. Michigan State is giving up 22 yards per kick return, so ATM might have some room.

Brett Swinson is one of the best kickers in the Big Ten. He has hit on 14 of 16 field goal with a long of 45. he did miss his only attempt last week from 37, so he isn't automatic. Keshawn Martin is a dangerous kick returner who has already taken one back for a score. He also returns punts, so our coverage must be better than last week.

Intangibles:

Purdue clearly needs this more. We're on a roll (if you remove the Wisconsin game) and playing at home with a senior class that has overachieved this year. Michigan State can afford a loss, while we cannot. They at least have the fallback of a second chance at home next week. We do not.

Michigan State has also performed poorly on the road this year. They grabbed a win at Illinois when Illinois was terrible, but it was only a hard fought 10 point victory. They gave up a ton of points to Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in their other road trips. I am really surprised that their defense has underperformed this season. It was supposed to be a strength while the offense replaced Brian Hoyer and Jevon Ringer. Instead, the offense has been fine while the defense has given up a ton of yards through the air.

Defensively, we want to make Michigan State run the ball. They do not have a strong running game, and many of its numbers are inflated by last week and the opener against Montana State. They have had the luxury of two laughers there, while we have had about half of one against Toledo. If our secondary can keep the passing game in check I have confidence the run defense will come around. Michigan and Wisconsin have gashed us the last two weeks, but they are much better running teams than the Spartans. Of course, Illinois was a bad running team too.

Offensively, if we can establish some balance with Ralph Bolden I think we will do very well. If we somehow get him to 100 yards I do not see us losing because the passing game will have plenty of time to work.

Keys to the Game for Purdue:

Do not let their running game get moving
Establish Ralph Bolden
No stupid turnovers
Control the clock
Get after Cousins/Nichol

2009 Big 10 Quarterback Rankings, First Edition

grahamfiller10 — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 22:13:26 -0000

It's been 9 long months since I made my final edition of the 2008 Big Ten Quarterback Rankings. Since late 2008, the majority of teams in the Big Ten are starting a new quarterback and let me tell you folks, this is great, great news for the quarterback rankings. In 2008, quarterback play was horrible and inconsistent. Two main factors led to the horrid play - Injuries and disappointing veterans. Curtis Painter, Kellen Lewis, Brian Hoyer, Todd Boeckman, Allan Evridge, and Juice Williams were injury prone or ineffective in 2008, leading to backups getting significant playing time. By the end of the season, only a few QB's were healthy and putting up solid stats. This year, with a conference wide focus on passing and more teams opening their playbooks, the quarterback play is markedly improved from last year.

Not only does this improvement make the ranking a more interesting exercise, I don't have to spend the year explaining how in the world Juice Williams is the third best quarterback in the Big Ten, a spot he ended up in through default last year. Enjoy The Rivalry's 2009 Big Ten Quarterback Rankings First Edition, which I will update every three weeks.

Ed Note: After #4, the quarterbacks blend together, talent and number wise. I gave Tolzien and Kafka extra points because of their surprising success, but that can all be wiped away with early in-conf struggles. And I took away points for struggling in big games, which I believe is where a quarterback can best be judged.

	QB	Team	Comments
#1	Daryll Clark	PSU	Has looked comfortable in the pocket throwing to the newbie receivers. Clark's best attribute is that he trusts his O-Line - he will sit and slowly chop his feet, waiting for routes to open up. Game Avg: 22-32, 250 yards, 3 TDs.
#2	Kirk Cousins	MSU	His accuracy and poise in the pocket have resulted in the Big Ten's best passing efficiency rating. This devout Bapist can make every throw - swing passes, curl routes in traffic, out routes to the sideline. Don't let the wobbler at the end of the ND game fool you - He should be taking every snap at MSU. Game Avg: 15-23, 215 yards, 2 TDs.
#3	Tate Forcier	UM	Showed up in primetime against ND, putting on a performance for the ages. Throws an accurate ball and his shifty moves are perfect for the RichRod Spread. Not lightning fast like Pat White, but gets the 3-5 yards on the Zone Read QB run that Sheridan/Threet could never get. Game Avg: 14-22, 163 yards, 2 TD, 37 ypg rushing.
#4	Terrelle Pryor	OSU	Lebron In Cleats showed a fully evolved arm in the Spring Game, leading to an overly excited phone call from Law Buck. Unfortunately, the indecisive shot putting returned against USC. Would I take him over Forcier? Yes. Did he choke under pressure? Yes. Game Avg: 14-25, 204 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 59 yards rushing.
#5	Ricky Stanzi	IOWA	Holds himself like a veteran and has engineered victories while Iowa Hating God wipes out all his playmakers. No complaints about his throwing motion here, but the unexplainable interceptions flummox everyone. Game Avg: 20-33, 215 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.
#6	Scott Tolzien	WISC	Tolzien has been the surprise of the non-conf games. Accurate and eager to spread the ball around, I guess we realize why Sherer's loopy delivery was dropped in favor of this supposed career backup. Throws an extremely catchable ball for a Wisky offense that isn't relying on the run so much anymore. Game Avg: 15-23, 214 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
#7	Mike Kafka	NW	A tremendous game against Syracuse was tainted by an ugly pick late, but his numbers exceed what we expected by so much it's scary. He's showed a live arm and has refused to depend on his very solid scrambling abilities. Game Avg: 21-28, 247 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
#8	Adam Weber	MINN	I watched him against California and two problems are obvious. He doesn't know how to throw the ball away and he doesn't get any blocking. When given time, Weber/Decker is a dangerous combo. I expect more from this frequently inaccurate veteran. Game Avg: 20-34, 231 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
#9	Ben Chappell	IND	Crimson Quarry and others were calling for him to start last year, but injuries and Lewis's on-again, off-again playing schedule never allowed Chapell to become the unquestioned leader. Now fully in command, the Pistol offense and some athletic receivers have helped Chappell to look, as the British say, not half-bad. Game Avg: 21-31, 225 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
#10	Joey Elliot	PU	We predicted doom and gloom in West Lafayette, but the Boilers and Elliot looked a tad more explosive than expected. His personality as a QB isn't fully evolved yet - Should be rolling out as much as in the NIU game? Should the quick slants of yesteryear be incorporated more? Game Avg: 20-33, 225 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.
#11	Juice Williams	ILL	We all saw the Mizzou ugliness and the uninspired Illini. We all saw Juice do Juice things like throw wild, ineffective passes all over the place. We also saw no run game. So until he returns to good old rollercoaster Juice, Big Ten leader in Total Yards in 2008, I leave him here. Game Avg: 18-28, 179 yards, 1 INT.

Big Ten Pick'em: Week 3

Adam Hoge — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 05:06:11 -0000

More photos » by TONY DING - AP

Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen takes on Michigan State Saturday in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Tony Ding)

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It’s the third week of September, which means I’m stressed out. I have to predict 11 football games and I still have no flipping clue if these teams are good or not.

This happens every year — and this year is no different. BYU beat Oklahoma and now they face Florida State at home, which looked good against Miami. Who knows how good the Seminoles actually are?

And Jerry Seinfeld keeps popping up in my head saying, "What is with these Michigan Wolverines and this guy they call Rich Rod? They lose nine games and then they win two games, but they beat this one team that’s not very good and this other team with the fat guy. Why can’t they just decide if they’re any good? And what’s the deal with $14 tuna sandwiches at airports?"

Then there’s Ohio State which followed up a sluggish performance against Navy with what appeared to be a statement win against USC. But then Kanye West showed up and interrupted the game and said, "Yo Terrelle Pryor, I’m really happy for you and I’m gonna let you finish, but there’s this other young quarterback named Matt Barkley who is one of the best quarterbacks of all time! One of the best of all time!" And Barkley led a 87-yard drive down the field to the win the game.

So will the real college football teams please stand up? At the very least, it will help me predict these games:

Notre Dame 35, Michigan State 24
I’ve been saying since July that the Spartans are overrated. I don’t care how many returning interior players you have, you don’t lose Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer and become a better team. It’s just not possible.

Michigan 38, Eastern Michigan 13
The Wolverines offense looks legit and Eastern isn’t very good. That’s right Northwestern fans, Eastern sucks.

California 27, Minnesota 21
An underrated game but an overrated team in Minnesota. I expected more out of this Gopher offense and I think it will run out of possessions trying to keep up with Cal’s scoring ability, which will be slowed down a little bit on the road.

Penn State 51, Temple 3
Good vs. bad.

Wisconsin 41, Wofford 10
Semi-good vs. really bad. Actually Wofford can compete, but they are without their best player, RB Eric Breitenstein.

Ohio State 33, Toledo 13
Don’t buy into what the Rockets did to Colorado. The Buffaloes are one of the worst FBS programs out there right now. OSU will bounce back with an easy win.

Akron 31, Indiana 24
I’m picking IU to lose the rest of their games. No, seriously.
UPDATE! (12:11 AM, 9/19/09): Akron's star QB Chris Jacquemain was suspended Friday and will not play. Matt Rodgers starts in his place. This is worth at least a touchdown and I am officially changing my pick to Indiana 24, Akron 23.

Iowa 23, Arizona 17
This should be a great football game at Kinnick Stadium, but I’m sticking with the home team. I think the Hawkeyes woke up last week in Ames, Iowa and will keep it up

Northwestern 31, Syracuse 24
This is an interesting game because of the way Syracuse played Minnesota at home in Week 1 and the way NU struggled against Eastern Michigan last week. The Wildcats are still the better team and I think they step it up for the win.

Upset Special: Northern Illinois 34, Purdue 31
I circled this one in August and I’m going to stick with it even though Purdue competed at Oregon last week. Northern played well up in Madison and the Boilermakers still have a ton of problems. The Huskies pull off a much-needed confidence booster in West Lafayette, Ind.

2009 record: 17-5

Know thy Opponent 2009: Michigan State Spartans

BoilerTMill — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 14:15:49 -0000

My Big Ten road trip last season was to East Lansing. I braved the wind and cold to officially watch our bowl chances go up in smoke. This year, Michigan State comes to West Lafayette on Senior Day. It will be the final home game for 21 Purdue seniors, and if we don't have five wins or more at this point, it could mean the difference between a bowl game and another season home for the holidays.

Michigan State is an interesting team. We did not adapt to the cold well last year and had a number of dropped passes. We handed them seven points on an awful interception before halftime. Also, at one point we had to play a fourth string walk-on scout team quarterback. Still, we did not play that badly (at least on defense) in a 21-7 loss. That gives me hope that this year can be different.

2008 Record: 9-4, (6-2 Big Ten)

Bowl Result: lost Capitol One Bowl 24-12 to Georgia

Blog Representation: The Only Colors, The Enlightened Spartan, Sparty MSU

Series with Purdue: Michigan State leads 30-28-3

Last Purdue win: 11/4/2006 at Michigan State 17-15

Last Michigan State win: 11/8/2008 at Michigan State 21-7

Last season for the Spartans:

Last year was a Purdue-esque season for Michigan State. I think we can all agree that the Big Ten as a whole was in the middle of a down year. Michigan State played nine mediocre-to-bad teams and four really good teams. Predictably, they finished with a 9-4 record. They lost a relatively close game on the road at California, got trucked by Ohio State and Penn State, then lost the Capitol One Bowl to a good Georgia team. There was little doubt they were the third best team in the conference, as there was clear separation between them, the top of Ohio State and Penn State, and everyone else.

Are Sparty and Pete long lost brothers?

A huge reason for their success, Javon Ringer, is now gone. Brian Hoyer is also gone at the quarterback position. Their 2009 non-conference schedule is sneaky tough. Aside from a gimme game against Montana State, Michigan State hosts two of the better teams in the MAC. Games against Central Michigan and Western Michigan are hardly easy wins because both teams feature solid offenses with veteran quarterbacks. Both are more than capable of pulling an upset. There is also a trip to Notre Dame, where everyone in the country hopes the Spartans can continue their ownership of the Irish in Notre Dame Stadium. The hopes of a nation are with the Spartans that day, as a Michigan State victory would give Notre Dame one of the critical four losses needed to assure they don't get another undeserved BCS bowl bid.

As far as our game last season with the Spartans, I felt it was another missed opportunity. The defense played well and prevented Ringer from going totally nuts, but our offense failed to do anything until a final 98 yard drive that prevented a shutout. We had a good game plan, but one mistake (Siller's awful pick six) pretty much ruined any chance of a victory.

Michigan State offense:

Michigan State must find a way to replace Javon Ringer. Ringer had a monster season, rushing an astounding 390 times for 1,637 yards and 22 TD's. For good measure, he added 28 receptions for another 190 yards and even returned 11 kicks for 224 yards. He outscored the kicker, which is rare, and accounted for more than a third of Michigan State's total yardage gained on the season. Andre Anderson was second on the team in rushing attempts and yards with only 26 carries for 97 yards. Hoyer and Ashton Leggett are the only other players that had a rushing touchdown, each scoring once. Glenn Winston, who was recently released from jail, has now been reinstated as well.

How do you replace a guy that touches the ball on 429 different plays? Anderson, now a sophomore, is first in line to be the starter at tailback. Most likely, however, they will try to replace the yards by committee. A.J. Jimmerson and Leggett will also be contributors as Michigan State looks, at this early stage, to have the same running back-by-committee approach that we will have. They also have a star running back recruit that is a bit of a wild card like our own Al-Terek McBurse. Edwin Baker was one of the best high school running backs in the country last season. He is 5'10", 205 and already has enough size to make an early impression.

The quarterback battle is another key area for Michigan State. Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol appear to be dead even for the starting job at the moment, and both could play significant minutes. Nichol sat out last season after transferring from Oklahoma, while Cousins saw a decent amount of action as Hoyer's backup. Cousins' 32 completions on 43 attempts gave him a very high percentage. He ended up with 310 yards passing and two touchdowns against one interception. That in-game experience may give him a very slight edge for now.

Many of the top receivers return from a unit that was very balanced. Blair White (49-659-1) had the most receptions, but tight end Charlie Gantt (19-304-4) was the leader in touchdowns. Michigan State was not afraid to go to Gantt in short yardage situations or at the goal line. Gantt actually had the longest reception of the season for Michigan State with an 82 yard catch and run. B.J. Cunningham (41-528-0) will be the main #2 receiver, while Mark Dell (36-679-3) led the team in receiving yards. This is an experienced receiving unit that should help the growth of either Cousins or Nichol.

The Spartans must replace the entire right side of their offensive line, which was possibly the best part of the line. Rocco Cironi at 6'6" 308 is the anchor at left tackle, and he is an excellent run blocker. This line will likely excel at run blocking once again as the passing game gets used to a new quarterback. Of course, this late in the season Michigan State should be together and will likely be playing much better than at the beginning. Joel Foreman and Joel Nitchman provide stability as returning starters at left guard and center, respectively.

Michigan State defense:

It is no surprise that Michigan State's defense continues to get better, as Mark Dantonio is a defense-first style of coach. This year, the Spartans return eight starters from a unit that got better, but still struggled against the really good teams on its schedule. Cal, Penn State, and Ohio State scored seemingly at will on the Spartans, but this unit did play a respectable game against Georgia in the bowl game.

One of the biggest losses on defense was safety Otis Wiley. Wiley delivered a hit on Kory Sheets in the 2007 game that led to a fumble return for a touchdown that sealed the game for MSU. Junior Marcus Hyde is the leading candidate to replace him after registering 31 tackles and an interception in reserve action. Johnny Adams could see the field at cornerback, and he already has hurt us. It was his pick six just before halftime in last year's game that virtually sealed that loss. Unfortunately for him, Ross Weaver and Chris Rucker already have the starting spots nailed down. Danny Fortener will man the other safety spot, giving Michigan State one of the most experienced secondaries in the Big Ten. The group managed 14 interceptions last year, but four came from Wiley.

Linebacker Greg Jones is probably the player to watch on the defense. He led the team in tackles and tackles for loss last year, registering 127 stops and 14 behind the line of scrimmage. He is excellent against the run and could be one of the top linebackers in the nation. Eric Gordon and Brandon Denson will play the outside spots, though Denson is a bit undersized by Big Ten standards. Gordon was second on the team with 85 tackles and added three sacks in 2008. This unit is not afraid to blitz the quarterback, making pass protection difficult.

Senior defensive end Trevor Anderson has been with Dantonio since his time at Cincinnati. He had 8 sacks a year ago, but three came against Michigan. He tends to play in streaks, so he will either have a monster game or all but disappear against us. Colin Neely is the newcomer to the defensive line at the other end position. He and tackle Kevin Pickleman are undersized, but will be sued more as pass rusher than run stoppers. That's to be expected as good as MSU's linebackers are. Oren Wilson is a true sophomore, but he started every game at tackle as a freshman last year.

Michigan State Special Teams:

Brett Swenson makes sure that the Spartans get points any time they get near the end zone. He was 22 of 28 on field goals with a long of 50 yards. He has made 52 career field goals in his time in East Lansing, making him one of the Big Ten's most proficient kickers. Aaron Bates also returns as a solid punter, averaging 42 yards per boot. The punt coverage wasn't great, however, as teams averaged 10 yards per return and MSU did give up a touchdown.

The kickoff return game struggled mightily, not even averaging 20 yards per return. It should be a lively competition to see who gets the starting job here, but A.J. Jimmerson is the leading candidate. With Wiley gone, Michigan State also must find a new punt returner.

Intangibles:

It is senior day for us, so that has to be worth something. Unfortunately, we are getting Michigan State at the end of the season instead of the beginning. By this point, both the quarterback and running back derbies should be settled. The defense will likely play at a very high level all season long. All they need is an offense that can go out and give them 20-25 points per game. With no Ohio State on the schedule, it is possible that the Spartans will be a week away from a very big home game against Penn State for the Big Ten title. If they are looking ahead it will be beneficial to us, but I doubt they will be looking ahead.

Still, I don't think this is a daunting team. Last year they were good and just beat up on a mediocre league. They are in the same position to do so this year. Our game in East Lansing was hardly a dominating blowout. Our mistakes gave MSU more than enough to win. We handed them seven points and generated virtually nothing on offense because of dropped passes. This has been a wild series since 1997 where the best team hasn't necessarily won every game. That was true of our surprising upset in 1999 as it was of Michigan State's in 2000.

I hate myself for leaving this game early

Game Outlook:

Again, I don't like that this game is at the end of the year. Michigan State is too solid of a team and could have too much to play for. Look at some of our recent wins over them. In 1997 and 1998 we won because of their mistakes late in games they dominated. Our last win in the series in 2006 came about because of a late interception that set up Casey Welch's late field goal. When we have won it has been because the Spartans screwed up. If they play a mistake free game we lose. I see that happening again here.

Prediction:

We had better five wins at this point, because if we're counting on this one as #5 I think we will be in for a long wait. I still think Indiana is our ace in the hole for getting win #6 and the bowl bid that comes with it. Beating Michigan State would be nice, but they simply are better and more experienced than us right now. I think we lose a close one at home where their maturity comes through. Michigan State 24, Purdue 21

The Great College Football Debate: The Michigan State Spartans

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 16:09:21 -0000

With Michigan Football just weeks away, the guys at Maize n Brew are getting a little antsy for the season to start. The only way around it? Argue about football. Argue a lot. Each of us have already gone through Michigan's 2009 Football Schedule with a ~~fine tooth comb~~ a single half-assed glance and come out with completely different opinions on games, wins, losses, and season outcomes. Take a look for yourself, here are Beauford's, MnB Dave's, and SCM's predictions.

With the exception of Delaware State, every game is a bone of contention between us. Michigan State? You bet your ass. None of us can agree on it. So rather than duel it out with pistols at dawn or get our brawl on, fight club style, we engage in The Great College Football Debate. Five to six questions on the team in question. Five to six ~~in-depth~~ ~~half-ass~~ mediocre answers. You get content, we get to look like complete and total ~~idiots~~ geniuses in a few months. Sounds like a plan to us. We've already held The Great College Football Debate on Notre Dame, Iowa and Penn State, so now it's time to take a look at the fightin' Dantonios of Michigan State.

So, without further ado:

The Great Debate: The Michigan St. Spartans

1) Ringer: gone; Hoyer: gone. What's a realistic expectation of this offense that replaces a work horse running back and a marginal quarterback?

SCM: Several previews I've read on MSU seem to use the logic that unproven/inexperienced talent will be able to fill in any of the gaps losing Hoyer and Ringer have left. Never mind that Ringer tallied 390 carries last year... and we thought we rode Mike Hart hard in '06 (318 carries)??? Without a Clydesdale like Ringer to carry the offense or an experienced QB to lean on, I'm not sure exactly what Dantonio is going to do. Hoyer might have indeed been marginal, but replacing a senior QB is replacing a senior QB. Dantonio clearly is out of the Tressel-ball mold, but without a known commodity (at least early on) to move the sticks and burn the clock, will he have to open up the offense a bit? Methinks so. I think State will be nothing more than "meh" on offense, they do return 7 starters from the 8th ranked O in the league last season (IIRC), but if they continually put an excellent defense in bad situations while trying to find their "spark", it's going to burn them. MSU was fortunate to end up with the record they did last year despite being outgained by their opponents on average. Counting on the defense to let the offense catch-up-to-speed without any consequences is... well it's a mistake in logic I made leading up to last season.

390 carries of this. Photo via pennlive.com

Maize n Brew Dave: I think the expectations for this offense need to toned down just based on the departures on the offensive line. MSU lost two starting linemen who combined for 26 starts last year. And it's not like last year's line was overpowering anyone to begin with. Ringer carried the ball 390 times but only rushed for a 4.2 average and 1637 or so yards. That's notsogood when you consider Shonn Green had 307 carries and rushed for more than 200 extra yards. Hell, Jahvid Best at Cal rushed for 1580 on 194 carries. Almost TWO HUNDRED fewer carries than Ringer. In the Big East, Donald Brown of Connecticut rushed for 2083 yards on 367 carries. What I'm getting at is that it seems no one had more carries and did less with them than Michigan State's offensive line. Face it, the only rusher in the NCAA's top 75 in yards per game with a lower yards per carry average was Josh Nesbitt of Georgia Tech. Why does that sound weird? Because Nesbitt's a Quarterback!

If Dantonio runs the same offense he did last year there's no way in hell MSU is able to replicate its offensive success this year. Ringer was a special player, seemingly solely based on his ability to run into a brick wall time after time and not get injured. To expect that kind of durability year after year from any group of running backs, let alone one back, is absurd. The ground game is going to take a big step back. That said, I'm not willing to write off the passing game. Brian Hoyer was "competent" the same way Anthony Morrelli was (i.e., not that good).

Smile Cousins! via SBnation.com

Personally I think Cousins or Nichol (who was a 4 star Oklahoma commit) will be better than Hoyer from the first snap. Cousins has some game experience. Nichol has the big arm. And both of them have outstanding receivers to throw to. I think you'll see dramatic improvement out of the offense in the passing game which should soften the decline of the running game. All things considered, this should still be an Offense in that 6-8th range in the Big Ten. More big plays by the receivers but much fewer on the ground.

Beauford Bixel: This is one of those looming question marks with fangs that every fan dreads. As loath as I am to focus solely on the skill positions, replacing an all-Big Ten running back and a senior quarterback is never easy. Waiting in line behind Hoyer are, however, two quarterbacks who were at least somewhat highly touted and don't possess the "true freshman" status that sent Michigan into a Sparty-No!-esque tailspin last year. Keith Nichol was a 4-star out of Michigan who originally committed to Oklahoma before realizing he was buried on the depth chart. He transfered back to State, and ran the scout team last year while sitting out per NCAA rules. Kirk Cousins, another in-state product, enters the spring as the tentative starter having spent two years in the MSU system, although he was a 2-star to Scout with a smattering of MAC level offerings. Cousins does, however, possess a winning smile.

Replacing a senior quarterback is never good, but both of these options > Walk-on.

Andre Anderson appears to be the starting running back, but nobody is going to replace Javon Ringer's 390 carries on their own. State will likley employ a bevy of running backs to try to match Ringer's production. Anderson - another 2-star - is built to break big plays, and containing him will be a priority.

More of The Great Debate: the Michigan State Spartans after the jump....

2) D'Antonio has been a bit...gruff...when it comes to how he speaks and deals with Michigan. Adding fire to the rivalry? Or just being a dick?

SCM: Without sugar coating it, he's a dick. He handled the whole Mike Hart "little brother" thing like a petulant child and hasn't done anything to reverse that image since. State fans being comprised mostly of petulant children with raging inferiority complexes, I'm sure they love it. I would be willing to bet he also throws an "sc" in front of "UM" every time he mentions the school in correspondence. In a roundabout way he's added fire to the rivalry just in the aspect that he is an ass and it's certainly more fun to beat someone who's going to give you press conference gold afterward.

MnB Dave: Dantonio strikes me as a bit of a Mike Keenan, if you'll forgive crossing sports and the professional/amateur distinction. He's a harsh disciplinarian. He doesn't tolerate any BS. He's a good tactician. And he's pressed every right button to motivate his team and fan base over the last two years. He's not a particularly friendly guy to an outsider, but outsiders don't matter to him. What's important is his team. His school. And he knows that the most important thing to his school and his team is to beat Michigan consistently. As Michigan fans, we're not used to the backtalk coming from East Lansing. It's been a while since the Spartans have been a legitimate threat on the football field. So the constant white noise emitting from the Spartan fanbase has been easy to ignore. But Dantonio, to his credit, realizes that the fan base is insanely tired of the "we'll get ‘em next year" mentality of program since Saban left. And the only way you change that mentality is with a little bit of force from the top. So, yeah, maybe Dantonio's being a little bit of a dick, but that's what he has to be to bring MSU back to relevance in the Big Ten and national picture. And to do that, he's got to take Michigan down.

BB: I will cop to writing this question solely to get a response from SCM, which he provided with aplomb. I do think that D'Antonio is rather prickish when it comes to Michigan, and I think his comments about Mike Hart's height were completely bush league, but uh, yeah Hart did have a mouth on him too, so there's that.

3) Greg Jones remains one of my favorite players in the Big Ten. His defense returns a ton of starters. What's your primary concern vis a vis our offense vs. their defense?

Greg Jones taking in the Citrus Bowl from field level. Photo via Collegefootballfansite.com

SCM: In the conference, MSU ranked 8th in total D and rushing D along with a 6th in pass D last season. So, uh, why exactly all of the hyperbole about the D heading into this season? Sure Greg Jones is talented, I have no qualms there. Yes they return 8 starters, but outside of the LBs, what scares you on that defense? My primary concern is making sure that we open up the middle of the field early on to get the rushing game going and prevent the Spartan D from simply throwing the kitchen sink at Forcier.

MnB Dave: Other than the linebackers, honestly, there's no one on the Spartan defense that really scares me. Oren Wilson at DT is good, but not spectacular. The same can be said for Trevor Anderson at DE. It's a decent returning pair, but you're also plugging in two new starters from your special teamers and limited back-ups into that line. What shocks me is that even as bad as Michigan was last year, its run defense was actually better than Michigan States'. Check out the numbers. I think MSU's run defense will improve a bit with the veteran ‘backers in the mix, but it's not a world beating defensive front. On the back end, the Spartans have two veteran corners, but some issues with their returning safeties (injuries, not being that good, etc...). I think deep coverage is going to be an issue this season as well. Bad safeties = nightmares. Trust me. I know this. With Michigan State's question mark next to Wilson, I think you'll see a lot of running away from Wilson and Anderson and towards the less experienced guys. I also think, as good as the linebackers are, you'll see a lot of the slot receiver on roll outs against the safeties. Once those safeties are up at the line, maybe lob some bombs deep. But the first priority is to gain yards against the unproven guys.

BB: The defense last year was good enough to win some ball games, but not quite experienced enough to lean too heavily on. That's why Ringer and Hoyer's ability to keep drives alive were paramount. This year, the defense is going to have to be a rock because this offense is likely to put them in some bad situations. Greg Jones is awesome, and when I look at this defensive unit, I see a lot of speed, which could make the read-option a non-option. They look to me to be a bit undersized (only one defensive lineman approaches 300 lbs, and sophomore DT Kevin Pickelman is 255 lbs.), and could be subjected to MINOR RAGE.

4) Given the track record for games played @ MSU, lay down some odds for what freaky occurrence will happen this year.

SCM: By freaky occurrence do you mean "cheating" ('01) or "horrifyingly blatant bad call" (Henne's "fumble" in '05)? Given the continuation of officials' inability to properly call a football game in this series (see Brandon Minor's "TD" last year) I think it's even money that something rage-inducing happens this year as well.

MnB Dave: Even money. You can't have a Michigan/Michigan State game without a referee doing something that makes pull your hair our.

BB: The absolutely horrendous officiating in this game has gone back and forth over the years, what with the "million-year second," the "forward pass fumble," and last year's "Minor-Pylon-TD." My guess is that a paraglider drops onto the field to disrupt play. Wait, that's already happened?

Anyway, it will be scored a touchdown for Purdue, who won't be involved in this game.

5) A lot of talk has been made of MSU snapping up in-state recruits. Address this.

SCM: I am not really concerned, I haven't seen many instances where U of M and MSU have been vying for the same coveted guy yet. Rodriguez gave perhaps the best quote on this topic: "To judge on that and give a perception that one school is dominating the state ... I don't know how much validity there is to that. I know the last couple years, the recruiting classes we've got what we've felt are the best players in the state. Our primary focus in recruiting starts in Michigan and expands in other areas of the Midwest and then south." The reporter followed with: "But there seems to be the perception that Michigan State is taking over the state in recruiting" Rodriguez responded "Last I checked, Mike Martin and Will Campbell were playing for Michigan. Depending on your agenda, whoever you talk to, whatever their agenda is will lead the conversation. I feel pretty good about our reputation in state." Huzzah. In other words, we've gotten the guys we've wanted to get out of the state of Michigan.

MnB Dave: Not that big a deal. Sure you'd like to nab all the top talent in-state every year, but that doesn't happen. Oh wait. It does. Anyone trumpeting the OMG MSU OWNZ0RS INSTATE!!1!!!1 isn't paying that much attention to who's being recruited. In the 2009 class, lessee... Michigan took the top player. Same in 2008. Same in 2007. It'll be the same in 2010 because Devin Gardner is pretty much a lock to be ranked as the top dual threat QB in the country. If there's an issue, MSU is snapping up a lot of guys to starter in East Lansing who would usually be depth guys at Michigan. That'll be something that needs to be addressed if Michigan's national presence doesn't allow them to recruit depth from across the country. Wait... it does? Never mind then.

It's not an issue.

BB: The bottom line here is that MSU has always grabbed some in-state recruits. Notice both their quarterbacks are in-state products, one a 4 star who committed to powerhouse Oklahoma before transfering. Michigan has, however, been able to nab the tippy-top talent from in-state while continuing to focus more on Florida and Texas. Campbell, Gardner, White, Martin - these are all players who have committed to Rodriguez during his tenure at Michigan. We'll always lose out on a Gholston every now and again (he appears to be headed to MSU, at any rate), but by and large, the tizzy about Michigan losing in-state recruits has been mostly fabricated by shaudenfraud-filled fans of opposing schools.

(If you're looking for other break downs, check out The Great College Football Debate on Notre Dame, Iowa and Penn State)

An Almost Timely Early Look at the 2009 Schedule - Week 9 vs. Michigan State

JG2112 — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 15:00:16 -0000

More photos » by David Banks - AP

Why must you be, such an angry old man?

Browse more photos »

Previously: Syracuse, The Air Force Academy, California, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Purdue, Penn State, ~~Ohio State~~.

Michigan State: At a glance:

Location: East Lansing, Michigan

Stadium: Spartan Stadium (size: 75,005)
Expected Attendance: 0. The game's in Minneapolis.
Undergraduate population: 36,337.
First season: 1896
Number of Big Ten Titles: 9 6
All-time record: 592-403-44
All-time bowl record: 7-11.

Most awesome alum: undoubtedly John C. Holmes, who .... oh wait, that's not him? Oh.

Well, then I guess it's a close race between Jimmy Hoffa and honorary alum Robert Mugabe. Yes, the Zimbabwean dictator Robert Mugabe was once in possession of a Michigan State honorary degree (alas, it was revoked in 2008).

Most awesome Michigan State fan site: The Only Colors. Runner-up: Spartan Tailgate.

The Quad has Sparty as preseason # 31.

Jump with me.....

The Big Ten Network could care less if you have kids if you're a Gopher or Spartan fan. This game is slated for a 7:00 CST start on Halloween, which means 4 second row tickets in section 109 may go unused at the Vault, and instead of going overboard on beer at ~~TCF~~ Stub N Herb's, I'll load up on Sweet Tarts and Dubble Bubble. Thanks alot BTN - I may go trick or treating as Gerry DiNardo (XFL edition, of course) and scare all the neighborhood kids.

This will be Minnesota's first game against Michigan's agricultural school since 2006, when Minnesota won 31-18 in East Lansing. The teams' last meeting at Metrodump was in 2005, when Amir Pinnix rushed for 206 yards in a 41-18 victory. Of course, you can't talk 2005 Michigan State football without talking about John L. Smith and the bumbling coaches.

Times are changing, of course, and the dour, unhappy elephant Mark Dantonio is now the coach. He has instilled discipline, technique, and resolve to a team that found the second-half meltdown to be a rite of passage as the year got colder (something Coach Brewster has yet to solve for the Gophers). Last year, State went 9-4, losing to Cal, Ohio State, Penn State and Georgia. Most notably, Michigan State beat Michigan for the first time in 9 years (Plaxico?) and for the first time at Michigan Stadium since 1990.

While State has a number of pieces in place, there are a few significant questions marks that need to be solved and of course, they start with:

Michigan State on Offense: Brian Hoyer was the two-year starter and has now departed. Think of him as Bryan Cupito, and you'll realize how little he did or was noticed, and how his departure didn't even cause shoulders to shrug in central Michigan. This year has seen Oklahoma transfer (this guy couldn't beat out Sam Bradford at QB? FAIL) Keith Nicol and Kirk Cousins battle for the starting job. The position remains open as fall camp approaches.

Ever heard of Javon Ringer? If you watched every snap of every Michigan State game last year, you would have heard his name called 418 times, 390 of those on rushing plays. He's now backing up Chris Johnson and the tequila-free LenDale White in Tennessee, and leaves a significant hole in the MSU backfield. The returning rushers should be rather fresh as they only received 7% of the rushes. Andre Anderson, who got 26 of those in 2008, probably is first-string at this point, though incoming freshmen Edwin Baker and Larry Caple will probably get significant time as well.

State returns all but one of their top 9 wideouts and tight ends, including Blair White, BJ Cunningham, Mark Dell, each of whom had over 35 receptions last year, and TE Charlie Gantt.

Finally, on the O-line, State loses multi-year starters Roland Martin and Jesse Miller on the right side of their line, and will probably fill those spots with seniors Brendan Moss and John Stipek. The other three positions will probably be filled by Rocco Cironi, Joel Foreman, and Joel Nitchman.

Bottom Line: Michigan State's Offense: Think Ohio State. Think Iowa. Michigan State runs a conventional pro-style offense focusing upon the run game first, field position, conservative play-calling and play-action. The Spartans will be breaking in a new quarterback and new running backs the first part of the season, which could lead to problems when they play, say, Notre Dame. However, they should be aided by a strong defense that will give them good field position. By the time of the Minnesota game, the offense should be good for 23 points or so.

Michigan State's Defense: The defense is very solid, returning 8 starters. Dantonio's defensive focus (he was Ohio State's defensive coordinator when they won the 2003 BCS championship) has solidified what had been a porous unit in the past for the Green and White.

On the defensive line, MSU loses two starters, Long and Kershaw, but the best one, Trevor Anderson, returns. He had 30 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss and 8 sacks in 2008.

As for linebackers, all 3 starters return, but look for junior Greg Jones, the pre-season Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year. He had 127 tackles in 2008, calls the defenses and is almost unblockable. Also returning are the other two starters, Eric Gordon and (in a weird way, a meld of the Gophers' offensive attack) Adam Decker. Behind the returning starters is incoming freshman Chris Norman. This is probably the strongest part of the entire team. It will be important for Stommes, Wills and the other Gophers linemen to get releases from the defensive line and attempt to put a block on these linebackers - otherwise, the Gophers' rushing attack is going to get stalled due to the Spartans' stellar linebacking play.

The defensive backfield is also deep and talented, and in comparison to the Gophers, runs eight deep. Starting S Otis Wiley has departed, but Chris L. Rucker, Jeremy Ware, Marcus Hyde, and Dan Fortener return.

Bottom Line: Michigan State's Defense: State's defense is experienced, stout, and disciplined. If the Gophers' rushing game expects to have any success, it needs to put blocks on those solid Spartan linebackers. MSU also seems to have enough quality defensive backs to be able to deal with a 4 or 5 WR look should the Gophers choose to attack through the air. Finally, if the Gophers attempt to use MarQueis Gray in a WildRodent formation, well, he'll have to shed Greg Jones. I fear this is a match-up that the redshirt freshman QB will have difficulty with.

Michigan State on Special Teams: Both specialists return. Brett Swenson does the kicking, has a long of 50 yards, and is used to kicking in the cold and at night. The punter, Aaron Bates, punted 71 times in 2008, averaging over 41 ypk. Importantly, Michigan State is deep at wide receiver and at defensive back, meaning that some quality wide men will be on the kickoff and return teams. This unit I feel will be better than, say, Penn State's, and they may have the experience to stop Troy Stoudermire from having a big day.

Bottom Line: What to Expect: These are the kind of games that Minnesota is going to have trouble with: a well-drilled, disciplined team which plays the field position and punting game. Obviously, Minnesota is trying to move to this style of offense, but in year one, at game nine, they may not be there yet. Further, this is a serious trap game. The Gophers will be returning home after games at Ohio State and Penn State. It's Halloween night, so the players may be thinking ahead to the parties that evening (Sparty will be flying home and won't have that issue). The high-powered Illinois offense is at TCF seven days later. Michigan State may be an afterthought, as silly as that may seem for a team ranked third in the preseason prognostication for the Big Ten.

Looking at this game on August 5th, there are two keys for the Gophers to have success against the Spartans: (1) score early and force Michigan State to play catch-up; and (2) minimize Greg Jones's influence on the game. If they can do either of these things, the game stays close. If they do both, the chance of winning is very good.

However, I don't see it happening. The Spartans have the depth, experience and guile to combat the Gophers' offense, and it will have just enough offense to get the points it needs. The Agricultural School of Michigan will win its first trip to the Vault.

Michigan State 23

Minnesota 20

Poll

What will be the outcome of the Michigan State at Minnesota game on Halloween night, October 31st, 2009?

Michigan State - big victory

48 votes

Michigan State - squeaker

41 votes

Minnesota - overwhelming victory

18 votes

Minnesota - last second field goal, let's go to Sally's

65 votes

172 votes | Poll has closed

TOC Round Table beats Big Ten Media Days to death

KJ@theonlycolors — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 13:43:40 -0000

Many observers were surprised to see Michigan State picked by the media to finish third in the conference. What's your take? Is finishing third a likely outcome? Any concerns it places too much pressure on a team with a lot of question marks on offense?

KJ: I suspect we barely beat out Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin in the voting. The fact they don’t release the voting details—and only go three teams deep—makes the result seem more dramatic than it really probably is. And the fact we don’t have to play Ohio State was likely the tie-breaker for a lot of voters. Finishing third in the league is certainly a reasonable goal—but I don’t think we’re a rock solid pick to finish there.

Pete: Third is definitely doable, but I would not say it is likely. Remember, if Ricky Stanzi doesn't throw a couple of interceptions in the red zone and Bret Bielema retains even a modicum of sanity during the 4th quarter, we're talking about a 7-5 regular season MSU. That said, this is the most beneficial schedule MSU's been handed in at least a decade; their toughest road game is either Illinois or Wisconsin. Either Kirk Cousins or Keith Nichol will be, at the very least, competent at quarterback, and if even one running back can emerge from the platoon, MSU has a shot at third. I'd say they finish tied for fourth.

LVS: Sure, if we get the kind of breaks we did last year, since I think ultimately we'll be a better team this year than we were last year. But when I look at our schedule, I can't help but see at least three losses: Penn State (because they're clearly better than we are), Iowa (not much of a talent gap, but it'll be difficult beating them two seasons in a row, even at home -- I have a bad feeling about this game), and either at Illinois or Wisconsin. Those two road games will be key: if we can win at least one of them, we'll be in good shape; win both, and we're a conference title contender. Out of the two, I'm more confident about Wisconsin; I think at that point in the season, offensive line play will be our biggest liability, and Wisconsin's brand-new defensive line isn't going to be able to exploit that weakness. Illinois -- who knows? Either way, 3 losses most likely isn't going to get us fourth place, and 4 losses certainly won't. A fourth-place finish isn't horrible, and that's what I'll pick. We'll be beastly in 2010.

Speaking of question marks on offense, one line of thinking is that MSU's quarterback situation, while unsettled, will ultimately be a case of addition by subtraction. Is that theory a buy or a sell?

KJ: I thought Brian Hoyer got a bit of a bad rap last season. It's hard to be successful when you're constantly being asked to throw on third and long and rarely being given chances on first and ten. Having said that, I think the addition-by-subtraction theory holds in the long run--by midseason, optimistically. It's just a matter of how long it takes to identify the starter and get that guy comfortable as the leader of the offense. With three seasons of eligibility remaining for both Cousins and Nichol, I think Mark Dantonio will take his time in picking the starter, potentially sacrificing a game or two this season for stability over the next two seasons (when contention for a Big Ten title is more likely).

Pete: That theory's a hold for this year. While Hoyer didn't exactly make a lot of plays that wound up winning a game, he never threw an interception or had a fumble that caused an MSU loss; the same can't be said for Drew Stanton. I've got a feeling either Nichol or Cousins will lose a game because of a mistake either makes - they're both rookie quarterbacks, it's what rookie quarterbacks do - but I think by next year, either will be better than Hoyer.

LVS: BUY BUY BUY, if only because we'll have better receiver play this year. Ho yer didn't do himself any favors most of the time, but he wasn't helped by the obscene amount of drops from Mark Dell, B.J. Cunningham, et al. last year. Perhaps this is a leap of faith, but I think there will be less of that this season: both of those guys are a year older, and there's a whole lot more depth at the position this season, so they'll each be feeling more pressure to perform. In any event, I was very impressed with what we saw from Cousins last season: he's got a great arm, and when he was in the game, the coaching staff really didn't hold back at all -- the fact that he was throwing the ball a whole lot shows their faith in him. Nonetheless, I've said many times that I think Nichol will ultimately be the better quarterback. Of course it's a bit of a crapshoot, since he barely has any NCAA game experience, and I doubt that any of us have watched it (I certainly haven't); but, everything I've seen in highlights and read in news accounts makes me believe that he's a tremendous athlete and can add versatility and excitement to the offense in spades. Given that we're breaking in two new quarterbacks, I'm not thrilled that the @Notre Dame/@Wisconsin/Michigan stretch comes so early in the season. But come mid-to-late October and November, I think we'll be in fantastic shape at QB . . . as long as the offensive line gives them time to throw the ball.

HT to the MGoReaders who helped spark these questions.

You Must Be California Dreamin' If You Think Greg Jones Deserves Preseason Defensive Player of the Year

grahamfiller10 — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 17:29:45 -0000

Ed Note: I am currently in California (LA to be exact) for the first time...No one told me that a giant gray t shirt gets draped over the city at night...odd

These preseason awards are meaningless and unimportant. However, no stretch of logic points toward Greg Jones being 1) the best defensive player in the Big 10 or even 2) potentially the best defensive player in the Big 10.

Navarro Bowman should have been the PDPOY. But his marijuana incident may have clouded the voters vision. Anyways, let's break down the two backers.

In 2008, Navarro Bowman proved himself to be the Big Ten's best linebacker (Laurinitis is good too, but Bowman is a better one on one tackler). It was an extremely challenging year to be a linebacker in this conference, thanks to the 6-7 NFL caliber running backs and the ever present power run game that helped embarrass supposedly solid defenses (see: Iowa v Wisconsin). Amidst the rubble of off tackle runs, option attacks with Lebron In Cleats, and the Shonn Greene express, Bowman flourished. Numbers:

Penn State Defense

v. Oregon State - 92 rushing yards allowed, Frosh star Jacquizz Rodgers had 22 carries for 99 yards.

v. Wisconsin - 148 rushing yards allowed on 40 carries, PJ Hill with 58, John Clay with 43.

v. Ohio State - 61 rushing yards allowed.

v. Shonn Greene - 28 carries, 117 yards, long run of 14 yards.

v. Javon Ringer - 17 carries, 42 yards rushing.

So obviously Bowman and the PSU defense closed the door on most running games. Further, every single star halfback who got smothered by PSU is gone to the NFL now. Wouldn't it be logical to think that PSU's defense, now with the addition of another All-American in Sean Lee, will definitely not take steps back? Shouldn't these circumstances dictate that Bowman be the the de factor defensive POY until proven otherwise?

Oh but Graham, you might argue, the departure of Aaron Maybin won't give Bowman the protection he had last year. The departure of all the wide receivers and a young O Line will signal a weaker offense, meaning less rest for Bowman. The probation problems will be a distraction to the team and to #18's performance.

I say to you: Just look at Greg Jones and the Spartans in 2008. In every big game save Iowa, MSU got crunched defensively. The stiff arm fest against Ohio State showed that the Capitol One Bowl-bound Spartans didn't have the same level of talent as an OSU or PSU. The Penn State game exhibited those limitations again, as did the early California game when they gave up 38 points and some long runs.

But enough focus on 2008's struggles - If the Spartans improved for 2009, I could see the pick of Jones as PDPOY as being trendy and focused on the potential he holds. However, the Spartans lost their 2nd best defensive player (Otis Wiley) and their offensive stars in Brian Hoyer and Ringer. Sure they play an easier schedule this year, but that shouldn't factor into who is the best defensive player in the conference. Jones is going to find it tougher to succeed with a demanding early schedule and the possibility that the offense will struggle with no experience at the skill positions.

So we have established three things

Bowman had a monster 2008 year and there are no signs or (I believe) upcoming suspensions that lead us to believe he won't have another one.
Jones plays for a inferior team that lost just as much talent as Penn State lost.
The quality of athlete and team talent at Penn State (right now at least) is higher than at MSU.

What happened here? Did the media bow to political correctness and somehow think that a vote for Bowman was a vote for marijuana use? Anyway you look at it, logic was defied in picking Jones as the PDPOY.

Here is our review of Bowman and Jones in the offseason.

SB Nation - Brian Hoyer

Texas Tech v MSU in the Alamo Bowl: Do past bowl results tell us anything about this game?

Conversations With the Enemy: Talking Penn State with Run Up The Score

Michigan State preview

2009 Big 10 Quarterback Rankings, First Edition

Big Ten Pick'em: Week 3

Know thy Opponent 2009: Michigan State Spartans

The Great College Football Debate: The Michigan State Spartans

The Great Debate: The Michigan St. Spartans 1) Ringer: gone; Hoyer: gone. What's a realistic expectation of this offense that replaces a work horse running back and a marginal quarterback?

An Almost Timely Early Look at the 2009 Schedule - Week 9 vs. Michigan State

What will be the outcome of the Michigan State at Minnesota game on Halloween night, October 31st, 2009?

Michigan State - big victory

Michigan State - squeaker

Minnesota - overwhelming victory

Minnesota - last second field goal, let's go to Sally's

TOC Round Table beats Big Ten Media Days to death

You Must Be California Dreamin' If You Think Greg Jones Deserves Preseason Defensive Player of the Year

The Great Debate: The Michigan St. Spartans

1) Ringer: gone; Hoyer: gone. What's a realistic expectation of this offense that replaces a work horse running back and a marginal quarterback?