SB Nation - Kirk Cousins

MSU v TT in the Alamo Bowl: Musings on TRE's first press conference

grahamfiller10 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 06:01:11 -0000

The Spartans held their official press conference for the Alamo Bowl on Friday. I attended as the microphone holder for a Channel 12 reporter. For those who attend pressers consistently and interact with players/coaches, it's just another meeting. Since this was my first one, ever, it was intriguing on a personal and philosophical level.

Coach Dantonio took questions and also served up the truest quote of the day. "Coach, what are you going to do with your backups getting significant playing time?"...to which Dantonio said, "We have football players. They are going to play."

TRE ranks the Big Ten bowls in chances of winning.

Judging the impact of the MSU suspensions.

A quick look at Texas Tech's surprising bowl performances of late.

It's impossible not to say possibly incriminating, embarrassing, or stupid things at a press conference. That truth leads me to another statement - If you think the male-female relationship is weird (and it is), the sportswriter-athlete/coach relationship is on the same weird plane. The media holds tremendous power, but at the same time, many have the air of a proud father or a weak kneed N'Sync fan around the athletes.

We watched Jack Ebling interview Greg Jones, who showed humbleness amidst his impressive accolades (1st team All-American, etc). Jones gave more insight into the frat fight which led suspensions - "When I hang out (with the suspended players), we don't talk about it much. I know how they feel so why discuss it?"

Apparently ESPN named Michigan State the least likely team to win a bowl game this season. I know this because it was brought up 333 times during the Q and A with the players. How's a player supposed to react? "You're right, sir, ESPN has a valid point and we'll be lucky to get out of there with a three touchdown defeat." Lot's of stupid questions were asked - but there were some great ones too. Kirk Cousins was challenged - "How are you going to react with inexperienced wide receivers? How will you lead?" Cousins said that he'll do what great quarterbacks do - make the wide receivers better and lead by example.

I learned something about Cousins too. He's intense, smart, and well spoken. Cousin's sincerity and warmth is rivaled only by Mr. Rogers. The first time I looked in his eyes, it was like the first time I heard the Beatles. (H/T to Superbad)

Anger seeped through some of the players statements. Blair White used the word "pissed" to describe his emotions toward the suspended players actions. White, who's went from walk-on to 1st team All-Big Ten and team leader, shared an emotion that was echoed throughout the presser: excitement at going to Texas.

Larry Caper (above) shared that excitement and didn't seem phased at the thought of being a freshman who will get half the carries against TT, not to mention part of a team that's a 10 point underdog. "We can win if we execute," was his mantra.

It was surreal, asking questions and eating lunch with players I've written about all year. Weird thoughts ("I thought everyone would look bigger", "These pressers will pay off for the players via improved public speaking skills") seeped into my brain as I was surviving the somewhat monotonous Q and A. I'll leave with two thoughts: 1) Michigan State might get killed, but it won't be for lack of leadership. White, Jones, and Cousins bring that in spades. 2) In my mind, I don't kowtow to the players or idolize them especially. I'm far more interested in the schemes and the CFB culture. But it's the players that make this all go around.

SHOCKING NEWS: KIRK COUSINS NAMED STARTER

LVS — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:07:24 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

STARTER!

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After 12 games, today Mark Dantonio finally -- grudgingly, perhaps -- removed the "OR" designation that has vexed us all season long: your starting quarterback for the Alamo Bowl is shockingly not Kirk Cousins OR Keith Nichol. As reported first by Rexrode and later confirmed on the official site, it's Kirk Cousins. Period.

There's probably no need to rehash the arguments and incredulity about this topic; that can all be found here. This decision is the right one, and although it should have been made a long time ago, I'm glad it's finally happened. The number of distractions and level of drama is already far too high heading into an important game; thankfully, we apparently won't be bringing this particular controversy/saga/facepalm to San Antonio as well.

Once more, with feeling:

NAME	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YDS/A	TD	INT	RAT
Kirk Cousins	185	301	2460	61.5	8.17	18	7	145.2
Keith Nichol	49	91	764	53.8	8.40	7	3	143.2

Nichol has been good, Cousins has been better. This is the correct choice.

Alamo Bowl Preview :: Texas Tech Defensive Matchups

Seth C — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:30:23 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

about 1 month ago: Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones, left, passes under pressure from Texas Tech defender Colby Whitlock, center, in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game in Lubbock, Texas, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009. Oklahoma's Stephen Good is at right. Texas Tech won the game 41-13. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

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SS Cody Davis vs. QB Kirk Cousins:

Cody Davis (Strong Safety / 6-2 / 200 / RS FR) :: There were a ton of question marks regarding how the Texas Tech secondary would perform, especially after the loss of three-fourths of the defensive backfield. In stepped Davis and FS Franklin Mitchem and although the numbers may not be too terribly impressive, 72nd in the nation in pass defense, but in comparison to the rest of the Big 12, the Red Raiders are better than average, good for fifth in the conference. Davis is tited for second, along with CB LaRon Moore and CB D.J. Johnson, with six passes broken up and is second on the team in tackles with 72. The general thought that when your safety is leading the team or near the top of tackles made, something is wrong with the defense, but I would guess that most Big 12 defenses suffer the same fate and the nice thing about Davis, and the entire secondary, is that he will hit. Davis was recently named to the second team All-Freshman Defense by CFN, an honor that is well deserved.

Kirk Cousins (Quarterback / 6-3 / 202 / SO) :: Cousins is only 6th in the Big Ten in passing, but he helped the Spartans lead the Big Ten overall. There's a lot to be said about the receiver situation, but Cousins still has his favorite receiving target in WR Blair White, while WR Keshawn Martin was Cousins' fourth favorite target. Cousins completed 61.5% of his passes, averaged, 8.2 yards per attempt and had a touchdown to interception ration of 2.57 : 1.00. There's this thought that the Spartans are purely a passing team, or perhaps pass a majority of the time, and the truth is that Michigan St. is about as close to even in terms of run to pass as you can get (387 runs and 393 passes). Cousins has only had two multiple interception games (two against Michigan and two against Penn St.) which means that he's not prone to having awful games and throwing multiple interceptions. Counsins best game of the year came against Minnesota where he completed 22 of 25 passes for 353 yards and two touchdowns.

So-So Running Attack: Despite rushing the ball almost fifty percent of the time, the Spartans don't necessarily struggle to rush the ball, but aren't running down opponents either. MSU ranks 79th in the nation in rushing offense and are 7th in the Big Ten at 135.92 YPG (for comparison purposes Michigan St. would rank seventh in the Big 12). The running game is really a committee approach in that the Spartans have 5 players that average more than 20 yards a game, including Edwin Baker (47.14), Larry Caper (40.27), Glenn Winston (34.00), Caulton Ray (22.29) and Ashton Leggett (20.83). The MSU suspensions play a part here as Winston and Leggett are suspended for the bowl game. I'm sure that this will have some effect on the role of the running game, but I'd imagine that the other three players will be more than capable of picking up any slack. The truth of the matter is that MSU is their absolute best when they run as the Spartans average 172 yards rushing in their wins and only 99 yards in their losses and as you would guess, the Red Raiders are their best when they limit the opponent rushing the ball, allowing only 82 yards in Texas Tech's wins and over 210 yards in Texas Tech losses.

Solid O-Line: The MSU offensive line is actually pretty solid, especially from the sense that they allow Cousins to stay upright for most of the game as the unit has only allowed 1.08 per game. This is a fairly veteran bunch as LT Rocco Cironi, C Joel Nitchman and RG Brendon Moss are all seniors while RT D.J. Young is a junior. Texas Tech fans know that one of the keys to a successful season is keeping your quarterback up and having a fairly decent running game and the Spartan offensive line has certainly done that. This will be a pretty interesting matchup as the Texas Tech defense (detailed more below) is second in the country in total sacks and thirtieth in the nation in tackles for a loss. When we look back at the results of this game, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to think that how these two lines play will decide the game.

Brandon Sharpe
Position	DE
Year	SR
Height/Weight	6-3/254
Stats	32 tackles; 16.0 TFL; 15.0 sacks; 3 forced fumbles

I honestly had no idea that Sharpe had this in him. In 2008, Sharpe played 10 games, had 1.0 sacks, 4 tackles and was virtually non-existent. Sharpe didn't have a ton of opportunities in 2008, but he certainly made the most of them in 2009. Sharpe, paired with fellow defensive ends Daniel Howard and Rajon Henley, has had a monster year terrorizing opposing quarterbacks, good for second in the country. In fact, Sharpe really didn't get going until conference play and I believe that he completely missed or played only a handful (maybe 5 or so) plays against TAMU. Of Sharpe's 15.0 sacks, 13.0 came against conference opponents, and although he was shut-out a few games, the defensive line as a whole had at least 1.0 sack every game and during conference play, the defense averaged 3.75 sacks per game.

Double-T Nation Daily Diatribe :: 12.14.09

Seth C — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 12:02:05 -0000

Special Teams Ace: LAJ'sDon Williams wrote about special teams ace, current walk-on RB Gerardo Acevedo. Special teams coach Eric Russell talks about Acevedo:

"He’s one of those guys you hope you find, who aren’t figuring in as much as they want to on offense or defense, but they have the great effort and enthusiasm to be able to play on multiple special teams,’’ Russell said. "He’s gotten better throughout the year. He just brings good energy and great effort. He might mess something up, but it’s going to be at least full speed, and he’s not afraid of contact.’’

Interestingly, the coaching staff wants Acevedo to put on a few pounds to take over for current RB Ryan Hale:

"They want me to gain some weight, because I’m at 200 pounds and I have to block the big linebackers,’’ Acevedo said. "It’s a tough process, because I still want to be fast for kickoff and special teams. Gradually, I’ll gain some pretty good weight. I know I’m tough enough. I know I can play this position. Hopefully, I’ll get everything down and just get it done.’’

It's always nice to read about stories like this and I hope Acevedo gets that scholarship sooner rather than later.

More on the McRoy Brothers: The Orlando Sentinel's Chris Hays and Bill Buchalter and The Ledger's Tom Zebold have a bit more on the commitments of Ben and Javares McRoy. The OS's story has the stats from both players:

For the season, Javares caught 39 passes for 786 yards and eight touchdowns. He also ran the ball 35 times for 325 yards and two touchdowns and had two punt returns for TDs, as well.

Snip

Ben, however, was no slouch in his senior season. The running back had 872 yards on just 99 carries, a whopping 8.8 yards per carry and five TDs. He also had three touchdown receptions and a kickoff return for a TD.

And the Ledger article has this from Javares:

"We're going to enjoy our time in college together and spend time before we have to move on with our lives. We'll have another four years together," Javares said Sunday.

Snip

"We chose Texas Tech because we felt like my brother would have a better chance of getting time to play there," Javares said.

Twittering Position Changes: RRS.com's Chris Level tweeted the other day that in addition to Daniel Cobb changing positions from safety to linebacker, DE Kerry Hyder will move to defensive tackle, Joel Gray will move to center and there is a possibility that S Will Ford will move to cornerback. Considering the overall lack of depth at defensive end after Howard and Sharpe graduate, it's interesting that the staff wants Hyder to move to defensive tackle, unless we can expect additional defensive end signees.

More on Suspensions: The Rivalry, Esq.'s Graham Filler wonders how the suspensions will affect the Spartans and the Lansing State Journal's Dan Kilbridge has an excellent summary of how the receiving corps are left to two players and some walk-ons and Michigan St. QB Kirk Cousins wants to make this situation a positive:

"We feel we can take a negative situation and turn it into a positive," Cousins said. "This hasn't been the first time we've faced adversity this season and it's not gonna be the last time. So one more time, we need to get ourselves up off the mat, dust ourselves off and get back to work and that's what we're gonna do."

Miscellaneous Links: The Providence Journal's Jim Donaldson writes about how awesome Wes Welker is and Patriots QB Tom Brady confirms:

"He’s been such a big player for this offense since he’s been here. He’s consistent, reliable, durable, explosive. He catches the ball every time you throw it to him. He’s pretty awesome. Those plays he made in the third quarter really sparked us."

. . . Oread Boom Kings looks at the new hires at Kansas, including the coordinators (still trying to figure out why Gill chose Carl Torbush and Chuck Long other than they are familiar with the recruiting scene) . . . CT's Dave Matter with some general thoughts on college football . . .

Should Be Ranked: ESPN's Andy Katz writes three pieces of advice for coaches voting this week, which includes the thought that the coaches should vote Texas Tech to the top 25, as well should New Mexico, who beat the Aggies this weekend in Houston and the Red Raiders will travel to New Mexico later this month. That's going to be one tough game.

Looking Really Far Ahead: LAJ's Courtney Linehan wonders where the Red Raiders will be seated in the field of 65 and although I'm really optimistic about what Texas Tech has done thus far this year, I think looking this far ahead at this point of the season is unrealistic. The Big 12 is going to be incredibly tough and wins on the road will be tough to come by as will wins at home. Texas Tech has improved but so has a number of other squads.

MSU-TT in the Alamo Bowl: Suspension Impact?

grahamfiller10 — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 01:52:33 -0000

Tearing on another team's disciplinary or academic problems is usually an uninteresting pursuit that can quickly turn against you. For every Ed Martin (Michigan booster who gave 280k to Chris Webber), there's a Maurice Clarett and a Charles Rogers. So MSU's reputation, although tarnished by the fact that there are gangs of unruly Spartan football players roving around East Lansing, will remain similar to any other major program.

So will there be any REAL impact on the Texas Tech game? What does Leach need to know about Animal House 2: When Players Attack?

Here is a list from TOC of the players suspended over the incident -

Roderick Jenrette, 22, of East Lansing; conspiracy and three counts of assault or assault and battery.

Glenn Winston, 20, East Lansing; conspiracy and two counts of assault or assault and battery.

Frederick Smith, 19, Macomb Township; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

B.J. Cunningham, 20, Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

Jamiihr Williams, 20, East Lansing; conspiracy and count of assault or assault and battery.

Mark Dell, 20, Lansing; a count of assault or assault and battery.

Ashton Leggett, 20, Muskegon; conspiracy and two counts of assault or assault and battery.

J'Micheal Deane, 23, East Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

Chris L. Rucker, 21, East Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

All nine individuals are charged with conspiracy, which is a misdemeanor with a one-year maximum. The other charges are also misdemeanors, and have a 93-day maximum sentence.

You know what happens every time TO gets traded from a a team? Everyone breathes a sign of relief because the negative distraction is gone. Might that be at play here with some of these players? Probably not. Dell, Cunningham, and Rucker were healthy and would have started versus TT if not for the Night of the Long Masks. Although the secondary was generally horrendous, Rucker was an aggressive corner, which is obviously helpful if DC Narduzzi had decided to pull up his corners in bump coverage. Dell and Cunningham were #2 and #3 in reception yards for Sparty, which leads me to believe that 1) Blair White is going to be doubled, 2) we're going to see a TE in a slot position and 3) if a backup WR drops a ball early or runs a wrong route, there is going to be great wailing and gnashing of teeth (H/T: Book of Job).

Is Mike Leach giggling like a schoolgirl ~~in the hopes that Saint Nicholas will soon be there~~ because of the general upheaval that has enveloped the depth chart and pissed off some of the Spartan fan base? Probably not. Vegas will steadily increase that 8 point line for the Red Raiders and overconfidence can grow, which will give Leach incentive to push his troops. Kirk Cousins is still around with his laser rocket arm, though featuring less weapons to throw too. Adversity usually has one of two effects on individuals: Either people step up and play more minutes than usual while making plays...or they wilt under the scrutiny and added responsibility. Blair White and Keshawn Martin are talented enough to play the whole game, while MSU's tight end depth is the best in the Big Ten. Both Sims or Linthicum are quick enough to play slot.

A huge gut check is in line for Michigan State at the Alamo Bowl. Will they go out like Jim Bowie, cursing and firing until bayoneted? Or will the tumult and addition of walk-ons getting PT be too much for the Spartans to endure?

Football Scatterplot!

KJ@theonlycolors — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:46:26 -0000

Special holiday weekend edition scatterplot:

Technical explanation:

Data based on 8 conference games only for each team. Sacks (and associated negative yardage) counted as pass plays.
Horizontal axis shows differential between pass yards per attempt and rush yards per attempt.
Vertical axis shows percentage of total plays on which a team attempted a pass (or was sacked).
Dashed line is trend line based on linear regression.

The premise here is that, the better a team is at passing the ball vs. running the ball, the more often that team will pass the ball. And, for the most part, Big Ten coaches look pretty darn rational. The data points show a clear linear trend. The teams above the trend line (Indiana, Purdue, Illinois) were generally playing from behind and would have passed the ball more out of necessity. The teams below the trend line, on the other hand, are teams that were usually playing with a lead (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State) or had interception-prone quarterbacks (Michigan, Iowa). (Data are not adjusted in any way for interceptions. Also, interpreting the data for teams with running QBs like Illinois and OSU may not be quite so straightforward.)

I had originally constructed this scatterplot to see if I could confirm my intuitive judgment that the MSU coaching staff didn't utilize the Cousins-led passing attack to the full extent it should have. If you trust the dashed trend line as a good approximation of where a team's run-pass balance should be based on the relative strengths of its passing/rushing attacks, though, the aggregate data would indicate the balance was about right.

One caveat: MSU's rushing numbers may be skewed high by two Keshawn Martin end-around runs totaling 154 yards. Take those two runs out of the sample and MSU's rushing yards/attempt figure drops from 4.6 to 4.0 and MSU's data point on the scatterplot moves very close to the right-hand boundary. Of course, it's possible other teams also have big runs on nonstandard rushing attempts in their data. And you could argue the Keith Nichol garbage-time TD passes vs. Wisconsin and Penn State skew the passing numbers upward, too.

Regardless, MSU did attempt to pass the ball at the 4th highest rate in the conference, behind two teams that played from behind most of the season (probably a 50/50 split for MSU on playing from behind/in front) and a team that runs a pure spread offense designed for frequent, short passes (Northwestern).

Still, I can't shake the intuitive judgment that, while MSU may have passed the ball with a reasonably-high frequency, it did so in a much-too-predicable fashion. Fairly-fresh-in-my-mind example: The opening drive of the Penn State game (when MSU had won the toss and chosen to take the ball first).

               Wagner, Collin kickoff 65 yards to the MSU5, Martin, Keshawn return 25 yards
               to the MSU30 (Timmons, K.).
      M 1-10 M30   Cousins, Kirk pass incomplete to White, Blair.
      M 2-10 M30   Caper, Larry rush for loss of 1 yard to the MSU29 (Bowman, Navorro).
      M 3-11 M29   Cousins, Kirk rush for 7 yards to the MSU36 (Bowman, Navorro).
      M 4-4  M36   Bates, Aaron punt 40 yards to the PSU24, Astorino, Drew return 8 yards

On the first play, White went in motion from right to left toward two receivers on the other side. At that point, I'm pretty sure every MSU fan in the stadium--not to mention the Penn State defense--knew what was coming: a flare pass to White behind the line of scrimmage. The Penn State defensive backs moved aggressively toward the line of scrimmage and blew the play up.

Next up? Well, if you didn't run the ball on first down, you certainly have to try to run it on second down, right? The result was, not surprisingly, a loss of yardage.

Finally, Kirk Cousins gets the chance to throw the ball downfield on the third down. But the Penn State defense knows what's coming, Cousins can't find an open receiver, and he's forced to scramble for a gain well short of the first down.

So there's an example of MSU passing on 2 out of 3 plays, but doing so in an entirely predictable and defensible manner. With Kirk Cousins--the clear front-runner for first team All-Big Ten quarterback, and perhaps Big Ten Ofensive POY, in 2010--back for two more seasons, that kind of predictability (predicated on the notion that running the ball on early downs is the basis for your offense, darn it all) sure seems like it wil continue to be an impediment to the team's success if it isn't addressed by the coaching staff--before the bowl game, ideally.

Data Appendix:

Team	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Y/A	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass Y/A	Differential	Pass%
Michigan St	239	1,092	4.6	267	1,923	7.2	2.6	52.8
Iowa	254	918	3.6	252	1,538	6.1	2.5	49.8
Northwestern	275	988	3.6	353	2,031	5.8	2.2	56.2
Michigan	292	1,094	3.7	254	1,476	5.8	2.1	46.5
Penn State	279	1,458	5.2	243	1,747	7.2	2.0	46.6
Purdue	240	1,023	4.3	324	1,989	6.1	1.9	57.4
Indiana	217	978	4.5	321	2,005	6.2	1.7	59.7
Minnesota	245	960	3.9	251	1,402	5.6	1.7	50.6
Wisconsin	350	1,698	4.9	238	1,462	6.1	1.3	40.5
Ohio State	335	1,721	5.1	176	948	5.4	0.2	34.4
Illinois	297	1,553	5.2	247	1,272	5.1	(0.1)	45.4

P.S. If I can work up the gumption, I'm intending to go through this same exercise for defensive stats.

2009 Quarterback Rankings, Final Edition: Across The Board, Marked Improvement Over 2008

grahamfiller10 — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 05:08:08 -0000

Another year has passed and no Big Ten QB has made any kind of national impact...or at least a positive one. Terrelle Pryor was on the tail end of some Heisman lists, but the USC game quickly bucked him off those. Daryll Clark found himself spewing astronomical stats in almost every game...except the ones that mattered on a BCS level.

2009 QB Rankings, First Edition: Optimism!

2009 QB Rankings, Second Edition: Back to Reality!

2009 QB Rankings, Third Edition: You're Better Than This!

One obvious observation - the quarterback play was improved all the way across the Big Ten. In fact, let me illustrate this:

Improved QB Situation from 2008: Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, NW, Wisconsin, Indiana,

Declining QB Situation from 2008: Illinois, Minnesota

Similar QB Situation of 2008: Penn State, OSU, Iowa

In the running back focused league of 2008, QB's struggled with injuries and consistency. Although two of them (Painter, Hoyer) made it to 3rd string status in the NFL, the ratings were horrendous and offenses stagnated badly when the run game was slowed. Last year, only four quarterbacks had a 126 QB rating or higher. This year, that number rose to nine.

Our group of QB's here, who mostly avoided injuries, consists of four seniors, four juniors, two sophomores, and one freshman. Since none of the seven non-seniors are good enough to jump to the NFL right now, that's a good amount of returning starters for next year. Weber and Forcier will face major challenges to their hold on the starting job. Without further adieu, enjoy the 2009 Big Ten Quarterback Rankings, Final Edition.

	QB	Team	Comments
#1	Daryll Clark	PSU	Destroyed Michigan State last week. Rivals has him as the 27th best QB in the nation, for what it's worth. Since this rankings inception in 2008, has always been #1 in my rankings.
#2	Mike Kafka	NW	Played his best game of the year versus Wisky, a mistake free 326 yard, 2 TD performance. Ran the NW Spread well all year and would have semi-torched PSU if not for injury.
#3	Kirk Cousins	MSU	Laser-rocket armed Baptist boy will be an asset for the Spartans for the next two years. Hit a bit of a sophomore wall toward the end of the year, running into Penn State and Purdue defenses who confused him into picks and incompletions. Cousins v. Western: 22-25, 353 yards, 2 TD's. Nice.
#4	Terrelle Pryor	OSU	All he does is win games, right? That's bullshit. He would have won more games if he didn't go noodle armed against Purdue and USC. Does TreS misuse him? Yes. But when Pryor get's unleashed, things get wild. TP is almost impossible to slow on the ground, as witnessed in AA Saturday.
#5	Joey Elliot	PU	A great leader and less injury prone than Painter. 22/13 TD/INT ratio compared to 13/11 for 2008 Painter. Also sported a QB Rating 13 points higher. 8 TD's in his final three games. Definitely one of the pleasant surprises in the Big Ten.
#6	Scott Tolzien	WI	FAR better than the 2008 combo of Evridge/Sherer. Blew apart a couple opponents selling out to stop the run. Things to work on in the offseason: 1) Mobility and 2) Not being so cavalier throwing the ball into coverage. 16/10 TD/INT Ratio.
#7	Ricky Stanzi	Iowa	Worse QB rating than 2008 and almost lost a couple of games with INT's. After an offseason of Tom Brady comparisons and TRE's orgasmic musings about perfect mechanics, took a step backward by throwing some inconceivable picks. Injury won't affect 2010 performance.
#8	Ben Chappell	IND	Another pleasant surprise who made a habit of scaring the hell out of teams in the first half, only to regress terrible in the second half. Stats v. Wisky three weeks ago: 25-35, 323 yards, 3 TD's, 2 Picks. Microcosm of a thoroughly entertaining Hoosier team.
#9	Adam Weber	MN	I called for his benching four weeks ago. After torching State like Stewie torching Brian during the "Got My Money" Family Guy episode, had three consecutive bad performances. This offense can't transition to MarQueis Gray quick enough. Threw the single worst Big Ten pass of the year (the pick6 to Derek Domino of South Dakota St).
#10	Juice Williams	ILL	Juice shredded Michigan and was generally effective versus NW. Early season struggles are hard to overcome on this list though, especially coming from the main catalyst of the Big Ten's most disappointing team.
#11	Tate Forcier	UM	He's not REALLY the worst QB in the Big Ten. But I'm a Michigan fan and he threw four picks against OSU, thus prolonging a 5 game losing streak.

Multitude of Casualties - Penn State 42, Michigan State 14

Pete Rossman — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 20:14:30 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

Yup.

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"It's worth noting throughout history / kids come around corners to a multitude of casualties."

- The Hold Steady

In the third quarter, Penn State actually punted. I certainly don't remember the game occurring in such a fashion, I remember Daryll Clark completing passes to his wide receivers on the sidelines and having said receivers walk into the end zone. It's not just that Penn State's offense was playing so well, it's that Michigan State offered them prime field position by way of spotty kick return coverage or two uncharacteristic Kirk Cousins interceptions where he forced the ball down the field. Either way, Michigan State got blown out, and thus ends one of the most painful struggles to bowl eligibility in Michigan State history.

The most shocking aspect of this game was the contrast between the two halves Michigan State played. The adjective for the first half was "conservative". The offense was balanced (almost to a fault, even though the run game was fine), and couldn't sustain a drive. The defense went into its typical "bend but don't break" mentality, and I was stunned to see it actually...well, work. Twice Penn State had to settle for field goal attempts (although one of these FGs was attempted on 3rd and 15), which they both missed. A late touchdown gave Penn State a 7-0 lead, then MSU had its best (read: only) significant drive of the game, an 87-yard drive ending with a gorgeous catch by Charlie Gantt to tie the game back up.

Then came the downfall.

I'm not going to rehash all aspects of the third quarter; I'm not interested in giving any Spartan PTSD. The one moment that sticks out in my mind was Clark dropping back with Penn State up 21-7, fresh off a Cousins' interception. The MSU rush was prolonged in reaching Clark, and when that happened, I cringed, and waited for the inevitable. Yup, completed pass to Zug near the sideline, and Zug did the Lindy Hop* into the end zone.

Alright, enough negativity. Next up is a bowl game, something Illinois, Indiana, Purdue and Michigan fans wish they could say. This bowl game will most likely not be in Detroit, also a positive. As for other glints of hope, Keshawn Martin once again had a 70+ yard TD play, Greg Jones had another stellar performance (15 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks), and Cousins knows what he did wrong:

Yeah, I made poor decisions on both of them. I can't do that, it cost the football team and when you get in a little bit of a catch up mode because you're doing three-and-outs and then they get ahead by a couple of touchdowns. Instead of just staying patient and letting the game still come to me, I just tried to do too much to try and get it back so fast that I was trying to make plays where there weren't plays there to be made.

The biggest positive - any shred of credibility this defensive scheme had was obliterated last afternoon by 6 PM. That means changes will have to be made by Narduzzi, Dantonio, etc., because if they want to remain competitive; bend but don't break won't cut it anymore. One of the reasons MSU was so successful last year was that in the games they won, they won the turnover battle in almost every game. This year, State didn't force as near as many turnovers (I don't have the numbers to prove this, but this sure seems to be the case). At any rate, something needs to change, and any change in scheme to accommodate a better pass defense is welcomed

One more month until the last MSU football game of the season. In the meantime, I hear Michigan State plays this game with an orange sphere and two peach baskets. Apparently they're quite good in their matches, and if you need a break from fishing the remote control out from your drywall, that'd be your best bet.

At any rate, play us out Craig.

*Note - may not have happened. Zug definitely had the time for it though.

Preview: Michigan State vs. Penn State

LVS — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:20:02 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

about 1 month ago: Michigan State's Keshawn Martin (82) scores a touchdown on a 48-yard pass reception during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Western Michigan, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in East Lansing, Mich. Michigan State won 49-14. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

Browse more photos »

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN

3:30 (ET), ABC (coverage map)

WEATHER: 52 DEGREES AT KICKOFF, TEMPERATURE FALLING AFTER DUSK.

Hey, a game that's not the most important of the season! Your Spartans obviously did the heavy lifting last week against Purdue; in all likelihood, this game is not about whether MSU will make a bowl, but rather, about whether we're going to San Antonio or Orlando or, of course, rollin' down Woodward to Ford Field (!). Penn State, after a season that has to be characterized as quite disappointing, amazingly still has a shot at a BCS berth. You know the backstory: last season, PSU absolutely demolished us; the season before, however, was good times:

It appears that the play-by-play guy attended the Joe Buck school of announcing excitement. Also, I miss Devin Thomas.

So, here cometh TEH GREATEST RIVALRY GAME IN ALL TEH LAND, and the opportunity to beat a team with a pulse for the first time this season. (Says the guy whose team's best win is against Temple. w00t.) The 8-million member PSU blogosphere and commentariat seems surprisingly reticent about this game. But, after last week's defensive fiasco I'm simply not comfortable picking us to win against teams with competent offenses. Penn State is such a team. I'd love to be proven wrong.

More, after the jump.

Big game plz, Colin.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: At this point, I think the secondary is probably going to suck no matter what we do, so we might as well stack the box to try to stop the run and get as much pressure on Darryl Clark as possible. Indeed, as RUTS told us, this is what you want to do with Clark:

He's like about any other good, but not great, quarterback. If he has a clean pocket and can set his feet, he's as good as anyone in the country. If he gets hit too much, he gets rattled and starts making bad decisions with the ball. In that sense, he can be knocked back into looking like a talented quarterback in his second or third start -- he thinks he can make throws that he can't actually pull off.

Clark struggled mightily in the Iowa and Ohio State games--and even in the Illinois game--because he was under pressure (ding ding ding da da ding ding). Pressuring him may allow Clark some opportunities to scramble (as Brian said earlier this year, he's "not Michael Vick but isn't John Navarre, either."), but it's probably the best chance to contain the PSU offense. PSU partisans seem to think that our defensive line will have success against their offensive line, and pressure Clark heavily; I'm not so certain. Many anticipated that Penn State's offensive line was going to be the downfall of the team this year, as it was the most inexperienced group in the conference. PSU has allowed only 12 sacks on the season, although it looked overmatched against Adrian Clayborn and Cameron Heyward, among others. But, uh, we don't have Clayborn or Heyward; we've got a defensive line which failed to pressure Joey Elliott (until the last play, of course), and hasn't proven the ability to apply pressure on its own. My suspicion is that, if PSU is content to throw from three-step drops, they'll have a lot of success: we won't have the ability to get to Clark that quickly, and our secondary is obviously vulnerable. Bottom line: stack the box, try to get pressure, hope for the best.

And, about those guys Clark will be throwing to: RUTS sez . . .

Starting WR Chaz Powell is out for the game with a shoulder injury. In his place, you'll see a rotating group including the very tall Brett Brackett and the very quick Curtis Drake. Maybe true freshman Justin Brown gets in the game, but I doubt it. Graham Zug had a nightmare game against Indiana last week, but that was mostly due to fumbling punts. He runs good routes and gets open against passive zone coverages. Really, that goes for the whole group -- if you can press and bump them, they become ineffective quickly. [ . . . ]

Derek Moye is probably our best receiver, but he was totally shut out by Ohio State's press coverage and only had two catches for 28 yards against Indiana. Because of that, I suspect PSU will make an effort to get him involved quickly.

Moye is indeed good: 41 catches for 676 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. He's 6'5", 195 pounds . . . and if you're thinking, "holy hell, he's Mike Floyd in disguise," well, yeah, me too. He's not quite there, talent-wise, but, erm, I wouldn't want to be fighting for a jump ball against him. I suspect that our cornerbacks wouldn't want to be, either. And, yeah, about that Quarless guy: he reminds me a lot of Kellen Davis in that he's ludicrous athletically, but the results don't quite meet the expectations. But, the same could be said of Garrett Graham, and that didn't end so well for us earlier this year.

This is probably Evan Royster's last regular season game for Penn State, as most expect him to jump to the NFL.
Last year, he only carried the ball 12 times against MSU, but those carries were relatively successful, as he averaged 6.6 yards per game. This season, he's been a bit up-and-down: he had big games against Northwestern and Minnesota, but not-so-good efforts against Iowa and Ohio State. MSU's rush defense has been mostly a positive this season, although last week was a bit of a regression. I suspect that Royster will approach 100 yards but not be the deciding factor in this game. His backup, Stephfon Green, has intermittently battled injuries and hasn't played much or well since the Illinois game much earlier this season.

Safe to say at this point: one of my all-time favorite Spartan football players.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: . . . we need for Kirk Cousins to have the best game of his career. As a preliminary matter, let's stipulate that we're going to get basically nothing against Penn State on the ground: the Lions are 8th nationally against the run, and our rushing offense is not good. The goal in this game should be to do just enough to semi-effectively set up play action.

Ah, so the main event: MSU's passing offense vs. Penn State's pass defense. It starts wtih the offensive line, obviously. Penn State doesn't have Tamba Hali or Courtney Brown or anyone of similar fear-producing ability, but the stats are certainly there: they lead the conference in sacks, and while Brian noted that:

[t]he numbers are impressive—PSU is 11th nationally with three sacks per game—but there is the whole schedule thing to take into account. Jack Crawford has four sacks, all of which come against the Akrons and Temples on the schedule. In Penn State's three real-ish games, they acquired one sack (Odrick) against Minnesota, three (Crawford, Latimore, Stanley) against Illinois, and two (Hull and Crawford/Lynn) against Iowa.

. . . Penn State sacked Forcier/Robinson 5 times, and then, the next week, sacked Mike Kafka 6 times. Since then, things have cooled down a bit: they weren't able to sack Terrelle Pryor (although Pryor is surely one of the most difficult sacks in the country), and were only able to get to Ben Chappell twice last week. Nonetheless, this is an impressive line; they're led by scary beast Jared Odrick, who has 6 sacks, and the aforementioned Jack Crawford, who now has 5.5. RUTS says that:

Penn State loves to just send the defensive line if they can get away with it. The defensive scheme actually depends on it, but PSU's defensive ends have been several notches below their predecessors. There's no Aaron Maybin, Maurice Evans, or Tamba Hali on this defensive line, so they'll send linebackers on occasion, and maybe mix in a corner blitz once or twice per game, but that's it.

We can't let them get tons of pressure from the front four alone. I know it's tempting disaster to say that I *want* Navorro Bowman, Sean Lee, and the corners to blitz, but Penn State blitzing and leaving the secondary exposed is how Cousins will be able to throw for lots of yards.

Penn State's defense is statistically impressive against the pass: 16th nationally in pass efficiency defense, and 17th nationally in pass defense. Once again, I'll let RUTS write my preview for me:

Penn State can be thrown on, but they do their best to protect any obvious liabilities in the secondary. Free Safety Nick Sukay has steadily improved throughout the year. Drew Astorino (#28) plays the other safety position, and it's no secret that he's trying to fight through a shoulder injury. CB A.J. Wallace sustained a concussion last week, he's listed as "possible" for Sparty. So there may be opportunities for you in the passing game.

So, PSU is good, but they're not scary in the way that Iowa is: this season, the Lions have allowed 252 yards passing to Northwestern, 263 to Illinois (!), and 298 last week to Indiana. (Note that they won all three of those games, however.) Quite frankly, our passing offense is better than any of those teams'. I think Cousins has a big day, and throws for at least 250 yards; look for B.J. Cunningham to play the Devin Thomas role this time around. If he's able to deliver, Cousins stands in line for first team all-conference honors, so there should be some personal motivation, too.

FINAL PREDICTION: Cut and paste, for starters:

Clark picked our defense apart last year, and while you don't have Derrick Williams anymore, our pass defense is even worse this time around. Also, I have distressing visions of Jared Odrick pwning whoever's blocking him and not giving Cousins enough time to be comfortable.

More generally, Dantonio has done a lot of good things during his time at MSU, but beating teams with appreciably more talent certainly hasn't been one of those things. So, I'll remain skeptical until we finally win one of these games. It's at home, which is good, and I could definitely see the special teams stats ending up very lopsided in our favor. But PSU is the better team, and you're playing for more: a win for us would upgrade our bowl game slightly, but a win for PSU might send you guys to the BCS. So, an upset isn't out of the possibility, but I'm not particularly optimistic.

I wrote that yesterday morning, and honestly, I'm a bit more optimistic now. Penn State fans seem quite worried about this game, and one columnist even questions whether Penn State's players even have their hearts into the game anymore. Which, like, what? Even if that's true, you're playing for the BCS! I'd dismiss it out of hand if the sentiment didn't seem to be a common one across the PSU internets.

One thing that doesn't fit into my normal preview format: if you've been reading previews of this game anywhere else, you'll know that PSU's special teams have been an unmitigated disaster this year, and ours have been very good. I'm normally skeptical that special teams play has any predictive value, but here the discrepancy between the teams seems so great that it may indeed be relevant this week. Keshawn Martin, Brett Swenson, Aaron Bates: keep on doing what you do so well. kthx.

Nonetheless, this is a pretty talented football team we're playing. PSU is excellent on defense, and the offense -- with many of the same players -- ripped us apart last year. It seems that I'm saying this every week now, but truly, our defense will determine whether we win this game. If they show up, we have a chance. If they play like they did last week, we don't. It's awfully tempting to say that MSU wins this game on the strength of the passing game and special teams play. But, visions of Quarless and Zug running rampant across the middle of the field prevent me from tempting fate, for now. Penn State 31, Michigan State 27.

Your thoughts welcome, of course.

Rivalry week Big Ten Preview: COME GET A TASTE!

BoilerTMill — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:33:58 -0000

It is here. This is supposedly the biggest week in the Big Ten's season, but ti feels like just another week. The only real drama is in Ann Arbor, where Michigan must win to get to a bowl game. Some are saying Iowa has a shot at an at large BCS berth, but I think it is a crime if TCU and Boise State both don't get one if they are undefeated. Everything else is pretty much settled this week. Event eh rivalry games seem disjointed because not much seems to be on the line in any of them.

Still, these are rivalries, so anything can happen. It has been a week full of talking and condescending jokes, so I will let the folks from Anchorman set us up properly.

#10 Ohio State (9-2, 6-1) at Michigan (5-6, 1-6) Noon, ABC

Eleven Warriors Preview

Maize N' Blue Nation Preview

Well, this is it for the Wolverines. They have to upset the Buckeyes to go to a bowl, and they can't even deny Ohio state anything. The trip to Pasadena is already locked, while Ohio State would love nothing more than to rub salt in a wound. Even a Michigan win only gets them as far as Detroit for the Pizza Pizza Bowl. One has to think Ohio State would almost love to throw the game so Central Michigan can run up 60 points on the Wolverines in said bowl game.Of course, Michigan winning would be about as surprising as Brick killing a guy with a trident.

I still maintain that this is Rodriguez's fault and he should have been fired last year. There is never any excuse whatsoever for Michigan to finish dead last in the Big Ten at 1-7. some are whining that the talent is down. Well, I don't buy it. Michigan doesn't even need to try to recruit talent. They're Michigan. It comes to them. All signs in this one point to an Ohio State victory because Michigan has been unable to stop anyone this year except Delaware State and Western Michigan. Ohio State 31, Michigan 17

Minnesota (6-5, 3-4) at #13 Iowa (9-2, 5-2) Noon, ESPN

Black Heart Gold Pants Preview

The Daily Gopher Preview

This game is about like public news fighting the Spanish language new channel in the fight. It is big in there corner, but pretty uneventful elsewhere. Our game with the Golden Gophers is one of many that I would absolutely love to play again. Like last year, they have shown virtually nothing since beating us. Only an unexpected passing explosion against Michigan State has them in a bowl game. They almost lost to a 1-AA team last week! This is not a good team, yet their win in Minneapolis over us will have them bowling while we will be at home. Minnesota has to be a win for us next year because I do not see them getting any better.

If Iowa is to go to a BCS bowl they have to win this one. I was impressed by their ability to keep it close in Columbus last week. People are knocking their conservative game plan, but it damn near won the game. Isn't that the point? Iowa has gotten the job done this year against lesser teams. Only the sudden Stanzi injury against Northwestern prevented them from winning that one. With a week of preparation they beat Minnesota easily. Iowa 27, Minnesota 10

#16 Wisconsin (8-2, 5-2) at Northwestern (7-4, 4-3) 3:30 Big Ten Network

Lake the Posts Preview

Bucky's 5^th Quarter Preview

What Anchorman fight comparison is here? I'll leave it to you the reader. Wisconsin is one of two Big Ten teams that does not finish its regular season this week. They will enjoy Hawaii next week, while Northwestern looks for a win that will send them to a Florida Bowl. Wisconsin also has a small hope of grabbing that elusive second BCS bid from the Big Ten. They have an enormous fanbase, the chance to finish 10-2, and if Iowa and Penn State lose this weekend they get second place all to themselves. That's still something to play for.

Can you believe, however, that Northwestern might finish 8-4? They somehow beat both Indiana and Purdue. They lost to freakin' Syracuse. They don't really have a dominating win on the schedule, but they have taken advantage of other team's blunders. That has to help Fitz as he is trying to build a consistent winning program. Say what you will, but I would take their seven wins right now simply because they don't screw things up. Wisconsin 27, Northwestern 20

#14 Penn State (9-2, 5-2) at Michigan State (6-5, 4-3) 3:30 ABC

Black Shoe Diaries Preview

The Only Colors Preview

The most contrived "rivalry" in the Big Ten has its next meeting Saturday in East Lansing. This is a bastardized rivalry because Penn state has no true rival in the Big Ten while Michigan State's always has Ohio State at the end of the season. One could argue that each team's biggest rival faces each other in that Michigan-OSU game. Penn State, even at 10-2, will leave me wanting more this year because they could not win the big games at home.

I was impressed by Michigan State in person last week. They answered every challenged and played a nearly perfect fourth quarter against Purdue. It started by going for and getting the quick score when down eleven. Purdue had just went on a clock eating drive to seemingly put the game away, but Michigan State responded immediately. Kirk Cousins hit every big throw too. He might be the best quarterback in the league next year. Michigan State 30, Penn State 28.

Purdue (4-7, 3-4) at Indiana (4-7, 1-6) 3:30pm Big Ten Network

Crimson Quarry Preview

I have been good this week. When it comes to blogging I am slow to anger, always keeping an even keel. This is funny because it is totally contrary to my regular personality. In person I am a fiery guy, though I am mellowing somewhat in my old age. When it comes to this game though, I have had just about enough of hearing how Indiana is going to pull off a close win at home (as predicted by most big Ten bloggers)

I get it. Indiana is better than last year. They have four wins and they have played a number of close games. With a win here they will set themselves up for a very good 2010 season. They have had better attendance and they are supposed to have a huge student section tomorrow.

They are still Indiana, and this is football. Here are the facts:

They are still 1-6 against the Big Ten with the one win coming over Illinois before the Illini decided to field a team this year.
Purdue is still 3-4 with a win over the Big Ten champion. Indiana wasn't even close to Ohio State.
Both teams have found ways to lose close games, but Indiana has been even more dramatic at Iowa, at Michigan, and at Northwestern.It is like Luke Wilson's character getting his arm cut off above. They never see it coming.
62-10
Indiana got rolled by an awful Virginia team. Purdue took the potential Pac-10 champ to the brink and probably should have won. These were both road games too.
Purdue has figured out how to win a road game in Big Ten play, something Indiana has not done since 2007.

I am going to this game tomorrow. I would honestly feel sick to my stomach to lose to Indiana in football. I can tolerate basketball because at least they have historically been one of the best programs in the country. As much as I despise Notre Dame, I can at least respect losing to them because they are a <cough, choke, hold back bile> good team. Indiana is historically awful, we own them, and we owned them last year when our offense couldn't score 62 points if you gave them four games. To me, it would be devastating to see Indiana have a 52 point turnaround in one season. They are talking about using last year's game as motivation, well we can too. We can show that it was not a fluke by continuing our domination in the series.

Losing to Indiana would be an embarrassment after last year's game, and a major step back in a season where I feel we have taken some big steps forward. Even when Indiana is decent, like this year, they still carry the stigma of being the worst program in Big Ten history. Indiana is a team that barely knows how to win. They merely survived Eastern Kentucky and Western Michigan due to late fumbles. Purdue has at least looked good when they have won.

I really hope good Purdue, the Purdue that beat Ohio State, Michigan, and scared the crap out of Oregon, shows up tomorrow. If it does we'll silence the crowd and keep our Bucket where it belongs. We're at least going to attempt to defend the Bucket, unlike Indiana last year when they rolled over and died somewhere around the Tippecanoe county line.

It's our Bucket, IU. You can take it from our cold, dead hands. Purdue 45, Indiana 21