SB Nation - Javon Ringer

Gettin' Familiar With: Michigan State Football.

Rodger Sherman — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 15:38:50 -0000

Yezzir.

That Leonidas fella probly woulda offed himself had he known his lasting legacy was going to be college students from Michigan yelling "OOOH! OOOH! OOOH!" before third downs and other critical junctures in football games.

On the season: Sparty got off to a pretty bad start. After beating Montana State, they dropped a game via last-second field goal to a Central Michigan MAC attack, then lost by three to Notre Dame in a back-and-forth one, then lost by eight to Wisconsin. All told, they had outscored their opponents by 31 points, but were 1-3. But an OT win vs. Michigan and a rightful win over the depression squad that is Illinois has them at 3-3 and streaking.

Us and them: Surprisingly, this has been a decent rivalry in recent years, if by "rivalry" you mean "they've played absurdly close games." Of course, MSU dominates us all-time, leading the series 33-16, but we've split the last 14 7-7. In 2006, MSU had the biggest comeback in division I-A history, pulling out the 38-35 win after we went up 35-0, and you've probably heard about this and have probably wept about it at least thrice. The next year, CJ Bachér went all (pretends to be LL Cool J, holds hands up to mouth to project) CJ BACHER!!!!! on the Spartans, throwing for 520 yards and five touchdowns, in a 48-41 OT win for the Cats. Last year, a 5-0 NU team had their early season optimism crushed by No. 23 MSU, who ended any Rose Bowl hopes early be dishing us a 37-20 loss.

Offense: If you've got any spare working body parts you're not using, MSU's skill position players could use 'em: Kirk Cousins, who started the first five games of the season, suffered an ankle injury, giving way to junior Keith Nichol, who promptly got injured in week 6. Currently, the two are both listed as starters with a big ol' OR slapped in between them on the depth chart, but it appears Cousins will get the start. He hasn't been half-bad - his worst game on the year was probably a 15-21 two-pick no-td performance against Michigan, and they got the W. Meanwhile, Nichol, who has played in every game in some duty, was 13-25 with a pick against Illinois. Cousins is probably in the top half of QB's in the Big Ten, so I'm hoping that ankle is a lil bit rawer than they're letting on.

Meanwhile, Glenn Winston - MSU's second-leading rusher, a sophomore who was splitting carries after spending 180 days this offseason in the clink - is out for the season, meaning MSU's running rotation in the wake of Javon Ringer is questionable. Freshman Larry Caper has been a vision - 4.6 yards per carry, over 60 carries, including 95 yards rushing on 16 last game against Illinois - but right now, he's their only suitable running back. Right now their second stringer is listed as Caulton Ray, who has 40 carries and 156 yards, but, the point be, that there be some depth issues. In a Northwestern-y twist, none of their running backs or QB's had ever started before this year, and now they have two injured QB's and an injured RB. We'll see what happens.

I'd be worried about the deep ball to MSU wideouts: Six guys have caught passes for more than 30 yards, 8 for more than 25, and seven guys have touchdowns. So there's a lot of people we have to guard. The Spartans' No. 1 target is Blair White, who leads the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns with 33, 449, and four.

Defense: MSU has a nasty linebacker corps: Junior Greg Jones at the MLB spot is a certifiable beast, with twice as many tackles as anybody else on the team (71, to be exact) 3 sacks, 3 qb hurries, and 6.5 tackles for loss. I would not pick a fight with him. They also have Eric Gordon (relation?) who follows Jones for most tackles, and Brandon Denson.

Cornerback Chris L. Rucker is somebody to watch out for, as opposed to third-string tight end Chris D. Rucker, who isn't. Rucker (the good one) is a pretty solid lockdown corner but only has one pick on the year, but then again, neither does anybody else on the team.

Although our goal line offense has been pretty gosh-darned inept, I ain't worried: the Spartans have allowed points on 16 of 17 red zone tries, including 11 td's, the only exception being Tate Forcier's, err, forced pass into coverage in overtime of the Michigan game.

If we didn't think our offense needed to be as passing-oriented as possible before this week, well, the Spartans have a mediocre pass defense - 60% pass completion, 13 TD's and only four picks, 226.7 yards through the air per-game - but have an absolutely stout run d: only 3.0 yards per play and only three rushing touchdowns allowed on the year. Let's air that bad boy out, folks.

Anyways. That's all I got for now, but keep peekin.

Big Ten Pick'em: Week 3

Adam Hoge — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 05:06:11 -0000

More photos » by TONY DING - AP

Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen takes on Michigan State Saturday in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Tony Ding)

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It’s the third week of September, which means I’m stressed out. I have to predict 11 football games and I still have no flipping clue if these teams are good or not.

This happens every year — and this year is no different. BYU beat Oklahoma and now they face Florida State at home, which looked good against Miami. Who knows how good the Seminoles actually are?

And Jerry Seinfeld keeps popping up in my head saying, "What is with these Michigan Wolverines and this guy they call Rich Rod? They lose nine games and then they win two games, but they beat this one team that’s not very good and this other team with the fat guy. Why can’t they just decide if they’re any good? And what’s the deal with $14 tuna sandwiches at airports?"

Then there’s Ohio State which followed up a sluggish performance against Navy with what appeared to be a statement win against USC. But then Kanye West showed up and interrupted the game and said, "Yo Terrelle Pryor, I’m really happy for you and I’m gonna let you finish, but there’s this other young quarterback named Matt Barkley who is one of the best quarterbacks of all time! One of the best of all time!" And Barkley led a 87-yard drive down the field to the win the game.

So will the real college football teams please stand up? At the very least, it will help me predict these games:

Notre Dame 35, Michigan State 24
I’ve been saying since July that the Spartans are overrated. I don’t care how many returning interior players you have, you don’t lose Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer and become a better team. It’s just not possible.

Michigan 38, Eastern Michigan 13
The Wolverines offense looks legit and Eastern isn’t very good. That’s right Northwestern fans, Eastern sucks.

California 27, Minnesota 21
An underrated game but an overrated team in Minnesota. I expected more out of this Gopher offense and I think it will run out of possessions trying to keep up with Cal’s scoring ability, which will be slowed down a little bit on the road.

Penn State 51, Temple 3
Good vs. bad.

Wisconsin 41, Wofford 10
Semi-good vs. really bad. Actually Wofford can compete, but they are without their best player, RB Eric Breitenstein.

Ohio State 33, Toledo 13
Don’t buy into what the Rockets did to Colorado. The Buffaloes are one of the worst FBS programs out there right now. OSU will bounce back with an easy win.

Akron 31, Indiana 24
I’m picking IU to lose the rest of their games. No, seriously.
UPDATE! (12:11 AM, 9/19/09): Akron's star QB Chris Jacquemain was suspended Friday and will not play. Matt Rodgers starts in his place. This is worth at least a touchdown and I am officially changing my pick to Indiana 24, Akron 23.

Iowa 23, Arizona 17
This should be a great football game at Kinnick Stadium, but I’m sticking with the home team. I think the Hawkeyes woke up last week in Ames, Iowa and will keep it up

Northwestern 31, Syracuse 24
This is an interesting game because of the way Syracuse played Minnesota at home in Week 1 and the way NU struggled against Eastern Michigan last week. The Wildcats are still the better team and I think they step it up for the win.

Upset Special: Northern Illinois 34, Purdue 31
I circled this one in August and I’m going to stick with it even though Purdue competed at Oregon last week. Northern played well up in Madison and the Boilermakers still have a ton of problems. The Huskies pull off a much-needed confidence booster in West Lafayette, Ind.

2009 record: 17-5

Blogpoll Ballot For Week 2 - Revised

Sam @ WWAHT — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 17:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

3 months ago: Texas' Cody Johnson (31) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against Louisiana-Monroe during the second quarter of their NCAA college football game in Austin, Texas, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2009. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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Rank	Team	Delta

1	Florida
2	Texas
3	Southern Cal	1
4	Alabama	1
5	Penn State	3
6	Oklahoma State	3
7	Mississippi
8	LSU	2
9	Ohio State	1
10	Brigham Young	9
11	Boise State	4
12	Georgia Tech	1
13	Oklahoma	10
14	California	2
15	North Carolina	1
16	Nebraska	6
17	Virginia Tech	6
18	Utah
19	Missouri
20	Michigan State	3
21	Florida State	3
22	Notre Dame	3
23	Tennessee
24	Georgia	7
25	Michigan
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Oregon (#12), Oregon State (#20), Iowa (#21), Miami (Florida) (#24).

(Partially revised since this morning. I have no idea what to do with Oregon State, so they're gone for now)

Oh God. This thing is awful, I know. I need help. Professional help, preferably. Michigan in the top 25? Tennessee, too? What am I thinking?

Well, for one, I think Lane Kiffin has turned around Tennessee a bit. I mean, he got a 75 percent completion percentage out of Jonathan Crompton. JONATHAN FREAKING CROMPTON. They'll probably end up 7-5, 8-4 in the SEC, which should keep them in the general area I've got them in. Michigan's offense surprised me, as did its defense, for the most part. Michigan would have made the cut if there was more room. Everyone else:

1-5:

Pretty static here. Two top-five teams had the balls to schedule marquee opponents in their opener; it worked out for Bama, so they get the bump, but it didn't for Oklahoma, which looked completely lost once Sam Bradford went down. Southern Cal doesn't seem to have lost a step, and Florida did what Florida does against hapless Charleston Southern.

6-10:

LSU gets dropped for beating a team on a 15-game losing streak by eight points. Okie State gets brownie points for the victory over Georgia, who will probably end up being just fine (and as a result of this line of thoughts, is still ranked). I move Ohio State up one hesitantly. Mississippi stays in place, but I'm ready to pull the trigger on them if they look like they did for a half against Memphis with any consistency.

11-15:

Everyone here but Oklahoma and Boise State opened with patsies. Boise State totally invalidated the Oregon offense's argument, but I wasn't enamored enough by what Boise actually did on offense to move them into the top ten. Yeah, basically arbitrary. UNC struggled a bit with its patsy, so they're running in place. Nebraska really impressed, albeit against Florida Atlantic.

16-20:

Virginia Tech has no offense whatsoever, as usual, but it has excellent special teams and defense, and that'll probably go a long way in an ACC that had basically the roughest weekend imaginable. Utah looked better than I thought it would, so it works its way into the poll at 17th. I give MSU some love for looking surprisingly competent on offense despite breaking in a new quarterback and running back (I believe Javon Ringer's legs finally fell off). Missouri probably isn't actually that good, but they did trump Illinois' offense and Blaine Gabbert looked solid.

21-25.

Disaster area. I know. I basically threw in teams that had strong opening weeks, plus an "A for effort!" plug for Navy. Navy will probably earn a ranking like this sooner rather than later. If I could punish Iowa for its close win over UNI a bit more without feeling dirty about my treatment of my Buckeyes, I would. I've already explained the Michigan and Tennessee love.

I don't like this ballot one bit, and would like to hear what you think.

BTBS National Preview, Part Two

Bill C. — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 19:00:17 -0000

Yesterday we took a look at the projected Top 25 in terms of rough BTBS projections. Today we ride those projections to their inevitable conclusion and look at projected standings and bowls. As a reminder, these are strictly what the numbers say, not my own personal opinion--I'm on record saying Missouri's projection is too high. Also, the projections I made through the summer have been updated to incorporate the projected turnover points data I spoke about yesterday. So without further adieu...

Big 12

North Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Missouri	6-2	10-3	Holiday
Nebraska	5-3	9-3	Alamo
Kansas	4-4	8-4	Independence
Kansas State	3-5	6-6
Colorado	2-6	5-7
Iowa State	0-8	3-9
South Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Texas*	8-0	13-0	BCS Championship
Oklahoma	7-1	11-1	Fiesta
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	Cotton
Texas Tech	4-4	8-4	Sun
Texas A&M	2-6	5-7
Baylor	1-7	3-9

As I mentioned before, not having a "All-Americans lost" qualifier instead of just "starters lost" helps Missouri out quite a bit, as did the turnover numbers from 2008. I don't think they'll go 10-2, but...well, obviously I wouldn't complain if it happened.
Honestly, I'm thinking a more likely scenario in the South is that OU beats Texas, then OU loses to somebody else and they both end up 11-1. OU's offensive line won't kill them often, but it will bite them once, I think. And honestly, I've seen quite a few people now say that Texas will beat OU because their O-line is better than OU's. But...well, their O-lines won't face off against each other, will they? The Texas D-line is perfectly qualified from a "caliber of recruit" perspective, but until I see somebody doing pretty credible Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller impersonations, then that's a question mark just like OU's offensive line is.
(And as I mentioned yesterday, there is a separation of about 0.01 between OU and Texas right now, so...yeah.)
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #1: I think Baylor will be better than 3-9, but they did benefit a little more than you'd expect from turnovers last year, so we'll see. They might still be a year away from true bowl contention. Then again, if Phil Taylor is what they say he is, that's a bonus the numbers don't account for.

ACC

Atlantic Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Clemson*	6-2	10-3	Orange
Florida State	6-2	8-4	Chick-Fil-A
Boston College	5-3	9-3	Champs Sports
Wake Forest	4-4	8-4	Emerald
Maryland	4-4	7-5	EagleBank
N.C. State	3-5	7-5	GMAC
Coastal Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Miami-FL	5-3	7-6	Meineke Car Care
Georgia Tech	5-3	8-4	Gator
Virginia Tech	5-3	7-5	Music City
Virginia	3-5	5-7
North Carolina	2-6	5-7
Duke	0-8	2-10

Another massive jumble in the ACC, where eight of 12 teams are projected between 3-5 and 5-3. Clemson and Florida State seem to have a slight edge over everybody else, and Clemson wins the tie-breaker.
Projected Disappointment #1: Virginia Tech. They benefitted tremendously from turnovers last year (#1 in the country in Turnover Points Margin), and while I'm pretty sure Frank Beamer teams always end up on the right side of the turnover battle, they should still see a fall of 5-6 points per game. That's enough to drop them into a major dogfight with Miami and Georgia Tech for the division crown.
I'm not sure what the tie-breaker rules are in the ACC, but here's how Miami wins the Coastal--all three teams go 1-1 against each other, while Miami goes 3-0 against the rest of the Coastal (GT and VT both go 2-1). So they earn the right to lose to Clemson in the title game. But I'll say this: I do think Clemson-Miami title game would get a lot more viewers/attendance than the last couple of VT-BC showdowns...so they have that going for them...which is nice.
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #2: I think North Carolina will go better than 5-7. I also think Maryland could sneak into 8-9 wins if things bounce right, but we'll see.

Big East

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Rutgers	5-2	9-3	Orange
Cincinnati	4-3	8-4	Papajohns.com
Connecticut	4-3	8-4	International
Pittsburgh	4-3	8-4	Meineke Car Care
South Florida	4-3	8-4	St. Petersburg
West Virginia	4-3	8-4	Gator
Louisville	3-4	7-5	Insight
Syracuse	0-7	2-10

Man oh man, I really hope Syracuse knocks off Rutgers, and we have a six-way tie for first (Rutgers is already losing to Louisville, so we can't have the 7-way tie I was aiming for), and all at 8-4, no less.. Nothing entertained me more than when that happened in the SWC in the mid-'90s. As it stands, this should still be a ridiculously fun slap-fight to watch.
Really, all of this seems pretty plausible, though I think some folks would disagree with Louisville doing that well. They're still benefitting from solid 5-year numbers, thanks to the end of the Petrino era, and that probably has them a bit high.
I mentioned a while back that the initial (non-turnover-influenced) numbers had Rutgers going 12-0. I was disappointed to see that projection fall, but they're still a game better than everybody else, I guess.

Big Ten

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Penn State	8-0	12-0	Rose
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	Sugar
Iowa	6-2	10-2	Capital One
Illinois	5-3	7-5	Outback
Wisconsin	4-4	8-4	Alamo
Minnesota	4-4	7-5	Champs Sports
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	Insight
Michigan State	3-5	6-6	Texas
Michigan	2-6	6-6	Motor City
Indiana	1-7	4-8
Purdue	1-7	3-9

Penn State is projected to beat Ohio State by 1.1 points...and that's the only game projected within 12 points. They do suffer some pretty scary losses at WR, but their schedule sets up quite nicely for a good run nonetheless.
Would Michigan accept a Motor City Bowl bid? Normally, I would say no, but after last year, they just might.
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #3: I think that Michigan State will end up doing pretty well this year, opening the offense up a bit after leaning so heavily on Javon Ringer last year. Not that there's anything wrong with a Texas Bowl showdown against mighty UL-Lafayette or anything, ahem, but I think they'll do better than that.

Conference USA

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Southern Miss	7-1	9-4	Armed Forces
Marshall	5-3	7-5	Hawaii
Memphis	4-4	5-7
UAB	4-4	5-7
Central Florida	3-5	5-7
East Carolina	3-5	4-8
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Tulsa*	7-1	10-3	Liberty
Houston	7-1	9-3	St. Petersburg
SMU	4-4	7-5	New Orleans
Rice	3-5	5-7
Tulane	1-7	2-10
UTEP	0-8	2-10

This appears to be a 3-team league this year, with Southern Miss, Tulsa, and Houston fighting it out for supremacy.
Because of the mediocrity everywhere else in the league, SMU sneaks into a bowl bid...which I must admit, would be pretty cool.
Projected Disappointment #2: East Carolina. They were heavy on the smoke and mirrors last year, winning the conference despite wholly mediocre stats (after beating WVU and VT, anyway). They're clearly well-coached, and because of that they might always overachieve above the projections, but they're a pretty good candidate for disappointment when all is said and done.
Looks like this might be Mike Price's last year with a West Texas zip code.

Independents

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Notre Dame	N/A	6-6	Poinsettia
Navy	N/A	6-7
Army	N/A	5-7

Projected Disappointment #3: Notre Dame. Mentioned this yesterday, but projecting Notre Damn is damn impossible right now. A hair better than projected, and they shoot straight to 10-2 or 11-1. A hair worse, and the Charlie Weis Era ends at 3-9 or 4-8.
You mean Navy might actually miss a bowl this year?? That never happens...meanwhile, Army almost sneaks into a bid, but a 10-point loss to Navy ends the dream.

MAC

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Bowling Green	7-1	7-6	GMAC
Ohio	5-3	7-5	Humanitarian
Akron	5-3	6-6
Temple	4-4	6-6	EagleBank
Kent State	3-5	4-8
Miami-OH	1-7	1-11
Buffalo	0-8	1-11
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Central Michigan*	7-1	9-4	Motor City
Northern Illinois	5-3	7-5	International
Toledo	5-3	6-6	New Mexico
Ball State	4-4	6-6
Eastern Michigan	3-5	4-8
Western Michigan	3-5	4-8

I realize Akron would probably get a bid over Temple with a better conference record, but I just couldn't resist. There should be rules like "If you haven't been to a bowl in __ years, and you win six games, you're in no matter what."
Projected Disappointment #4: Buffalo. Another smoke-and-mirrors team, Buffalo relied on a heavy 4.5-point advantage in turnovers to win a dead-even division and upset Ball State for the conference title. Turner Gill's too good a coach for them to actually go 1-11, but it would surprise me if they're able to get back to a bowl this year, especially after losing their starting running back.
Projected Disappointment #5: Western Michigan. Most have Central Michigan winning the conference, of course, but it seems like most have Western Michigan as the second-best team. Apparently the numbers disagree.

Mountain West

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
TCU	8-0	12-0	Fiesta
BYU	7-1	10-2	Las Vegas
Utah	6-2	9-3	Armed Forces
Air Force	3-5	5-7
Colorado State	3-5	5-7
New Mexico	3-5	4-8
San Diego State	2-6	5-7
UNLV	2-6	3-9
Wyoming	2-6	3-9

I don't see TCU getting past Clemson in Death Valley, but if they do they could be staring 12-0 in the face. Of course, now that I've said that, watch them lose to Virginia this week.
This is kind of a nightmare scenario for the Mountain West--people will be watching them extra closely this year after all the "let them join the BCS!" talk this offseason, and having only three teams qualify for a bowl (with three more stuck at 5 wins) would damage the perception quite a bit.
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #4: I admit it. I'm a complete and total homer. But if Dave Christensen can bring any offensive improvement to the equation, a defense that improved significantly down the stretch last year could at least get them to 4-5 wins instead of three. They have six games projected within seven points and are projected to go 2-4 in those games. Go 4-2, and that's some pretty good first-year improvement right there.

Pac-10

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Oregon	9-0	11-1	Rose
USC	8-1	10-2	Holiday
California	7-2	10-2	Sun
Oregon State	6-3	9-3	Las Vegas
Arizona	5-4	7-5	Emerald
UCLA	4-5	6-6	Poinsettia
Stanford	3-6	5-7
Arizona State	2-7	4-8
Washington	1-8	2-10
Washington State	0-9	0-12

Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #5: USC was actually projected to go 11-1 (9-0), but I couldn't help it. I instituted a manual "starting a true freshman QB" penalty. I just don't see them winning in Eugene with a freshman QB who was very INT-prone last year in high school, and a defensive line that potentially can't take much advantage of Oregon's young offensive line.
If Stanford gets anything from their defense, their offense should be able to bear a big load in getting them to a bowl. They have nine games projected within nine points or less, going 4-5 in those nine. They're projected to lose by 0.8 points to UCLA in a "winner is bowl eligible game," so they're certainly close.

SEC

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Florida*	8-0	13-0	BCS Championship
Georgia	7-1	10-2	Capital One
Tennessee	4-4	8-4	Outback
South Carolina	2-6	4-8
Vanderbilt	2-6	4-8
Kentucky	1-7	4-8
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Alabama	7-1	11-2	Sugar
LSU	6-2	10-2	Cotton
Arkansas	4-4	8-4	Chick-Fil-A
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	Music City
Auburn	3-5	7-5	Independence
Mississippi State	0-8	1-11

Projected Disappointment #6: Ole Miss, who in most cases should be perfectly happy with a chance at 9-4--that would mean they've bounced up from the ashes in which they resided during Ed Orgeron's tenure and sustained the bounce--but now 8-4 would be considered a disappointment for a Top 10 team. I definitely think the conventional wisdom is out of whack for the Rebels, who absolutely have a shot at glory with as agreeable a schedule as is possible in the SEC, but getting past both Alabama and LSU is a lot to ask, at home or on the road.
Both Tennessee and Auburn are riding "5-year success" numbers to a projected bounce-back season. I doubt they both bounce back, but I pretty much guarantee at least one will.
Meanwhile, Arkansas is projected to be quite stout this season, but their schedule bites them a bit, and they end up at 8-4...which is still decent improvement.
Poor Mississippi State. It's quite possible that Dan Mullen, their offensive whiz-kid coach they hired from Florida, can whip up some offensive success and make MSU better than expected, but the schedule is just brutal. Only two of their losses (Houston, Middle Tennessee) are projected within less than ten points, meaning anything better than 3-9 will take a pretty hefty upset.

Sun Belt

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Troy	8-0	10-2	Papajohns.com
Middle Tennessee	7-1	9-3	New Orleans
UL-Lafayette	5-3	6-6	Texas
Florida Atlantic	4-4	5-7
UL-Monroe	4-4	5-7
Florida International	4-4	4-8
Arkansas State	2-6	3-9
North Texas	1-7	1-11
Western Kentucky	1-7	1-11

Tight wins over Memphis (2.6 points), Mississippi State (5.4), Florida Atlantic (1.3), UL-Lafayette (6.3) and UL-Monroe (0.1) drive Middle Tennessee to a lovely projected season, but going 5-0 in games that close is a bit much to ask, I would think.
I'm not sure how this scenario would play out--if, because other conferences struggle to fill their bowl allotments and a better bowl than New Orleans opens up, I would assume the Sun Belt would try to strive for Troy to fill that slot and have their runner-up go to New Orleans instead, but I'm not sure. That's what I did here, with Troy jumping up to PapaJohns.com, while Middle Tennessee fills in in N'awlins.

WAC

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Boise State	8-0	13-0	Liberty
Nevada	7-1	10-2	New Mexico
Hawaii	5-3	9-4	Hawaii
Fresno State	5-3	6-6	Humanitarian
Louisiana Tech	4-4	5-7
Utah State	4-4	5-7
San Jose State	2-6	3-9
New Mexico State	1-7	2-11
Idaho	0-8	0-12

For what it's worth, I actually do think Utah State could be pretty solid this year. I know you were dying to know that.
Pretty clear who the class of the conference is here, though Boise's projections are interesting for two reasons: 1) they're projected to beat Oregon, and 2) if I'm not mistaken (and I very well could be), if two non-BCS teams go undefeated, the BCS bowls only have to take one unless one is in the title game. Is that right? If so, the lower-ranked of TCU and Boise would be S.O.L., and I'm not sure which team that would be. I had TCU ranked higher, so I went with them, but thanks to their reputation, Boise might actually be ranked higher despite losing head-to-head with TCU last year.

Bowl Projections

Date	Bowl	Tie-ins	Matchup
12/19	New Mexico	MWC vs WAC	Nevada (10-2) vs Toledo (6-6)
12/19	St. Petersburg	Big East vs C-USA	Houston (9-3) vs South Florida (8-4)
12/20	New Orleans	C-USA vs Sun Belt #1	Middle Tennessee (9-3) vs SMU (7-5)
12/22	Las Vegas	MWC #1 vs Pac-10	BYU (10-2) vs Oregon State (9-3)
12/23	Poinsettia	MWC vs Pac-10 #6	Notre Dame (6-6) vs UCLA (6-6)
12/24	Hawaii	C-USA vs WAC	Hawaii (9-4) vs Marshall (7-5)
12/26	Motor City	Big Ten #7 vs MAC	Central Michigan (9-4) vs Michigan (6-6)
12/26	Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-7 vs Big East #3	Pittsburgh (8-4) vs Miami-FL (7-6)
12/26	Emerald	ACC #5-7 vs Pac-10	Wake Forest (8-4) vs Arizona (7-5)
12/27	Music City	ACC #5-7 vs SEC	Ole Miss (8-4) vs Virginia Tech (7-5)
12/28	Independence	Big 12 vs SEC	Kansas (8-4) vs Auburn (7-5)
12/29	Eagle Bank	ACC #8 vs Army	Maryland (7-5) vs Temple (6-6)
12/29	Champs Sports	ACC #4 vs Big Ten #4-5	Boston College (9-3) vs Minnesota (7-5)
12/30	Humanitarian	MWC vs WAC	Ohio (7-5) vs Fresno State (6-6)
12/30	Holiday	Big 12 #3 vs Pac-10 #2	USC (10-2) vs Missouri (10-3)
12/30	Texas	Big 12 #8 vs Navy	Michigan State (6-6) vs UL-Lafayette (6-6)
12/31	Armed Forces	C-USA vs MWC	Utah (9-3) vs Southern Miss (9-4)
12/31	Sun	Big 12 vs Pac-10 #3	California (10-2) vs Texas Tech (8-4)
12/31	Insight	Big Ten #6 vs Big 12 #6	Northwestern (7-5) vs Lousiville (7-5)
12/31	Chick-Fil-A	ACC #2 vs SEC	Florida State (8-4) vs Arkansas (8-4)
1/1	Outback	Big Ten #3 vs SEC	Tennessee (8-4) vs Illinois (7-5)
1/1	Capital One	Big Ten #2 vs SEC	Georgia (10-2) vs Iowa (10-2)
1/1	Gator	ACC #3 vs Big East/ND	West Virginia (8-4) vs Georgia Tech (8-4)
1/1	Rose	BCS vs BCS	Penn State (12-0) vs Oregon (11-1)
1/1	Sugar	BCS vs BCS	Alabama (11-2) vs Ohio State (11-1)
1/2	International	Big East vs MAC	Connecticut (8-4) vs Northern Illinois (7-5)
1/2	PapaJohns.com	Big East vs SEC	Troy (10-2) vs Cincinnati (8-4)
1/2	Cotton	Big 12 #2 vs SEC	Oklahoma State (10-2) vs LSU (10-2)
1/2	Liberty	C-USA #1 vs SEC	Boise State (13-0) vs Tulsa (10-3)
1/2	Alamo	Big Ten #4-5 vs Big 12 #5	Nebraska (9-3) vs Wisconsin (8-4)
1/4	Fiesta	BCS vs BCS	TCU (12-0) vs Oklahoma (11-1)
1/5	Orange	BCS vs BCS	Clemson (10-3) vs Rutgers (9-3)
1/6	GMAC	ACC #9 vs MAC	N.C. State (7-5) vs Bowling Green (7-6)
1/7	BCS Championship	BCS #1 vs BCS #2	Florida (13-0) vs Texas (13-0)

Most interesting matchups: Independence, Cotton, Sugar, Gator, and Music City Bowls.
Least interesting: Texas, Texas, Texas, Texas, Texas, and Texas Bowls.
I would NOT be excited about playing USC in San Diego. Opportunity for greatness, etc., but yikes.
I can pretty much guarantee that the BCS Championship Game won't be this easy to pick. Strange things always happen (2004-05 aside), and needless to say the preseason #1 and #2 teams rarely make the title games in such clean fashion.

Don't Mourn Endangered Positions

Year2 — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:45:08 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

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Pat Forde wrote a somewhat melodramatic piece about "endangered positions" in college football: the drop back passer and the workhorse running back. He mentions "full-time defensive front sevens" being on the way out too, but he mostly just focuses on classic pocket passers and 25-carry a game running backs.

Forde quotes Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino as being one of the biggest lamenters for the death of the under center quarterback, which is understandable given his scheme. That's what he prefers, and they're getting harder to find. Arkansas redshirt freshman quarterback Tyler Wilson had worked exclusively in the shotgun before coming to Fayetteville, so the Razorbacks' staff is having to teach him to take under center snaps, hand off to an I-back, and do three to seven step drops.

Kentucky head coach Rich Brooks is the token defensive quote, and he points out that he can't use a 4-3 every snap against a spread offense. He has to sub in more defensive backs to deal with speed on the perimeter.

Oregon State head coach Mike Riley is the proponent of the workhorse running back in the story. He says he doesn't care what everyone else does and is waiting for the game to go back to what he does with his running backs.

All of this only matters if you believe in one thing: a Platonic ideal of football.

Specifically, it's if you believe that the NFL's way of doing things is that ideal. It's the world of drop back passers, workhorse running backs, and full-time front sevens. Football doesn't require any of those things to function, and nowhere in the rule book does it say that's the best way of doing things.

The NFL has worked itself basically to a stalemate with the way it does things, but just because that's happened there, that doesn't mean that everyone else has to do it that way. The fact we're even having this discussion means that the professional league doesn't rule football in the way it often thinks it does as well. The spread offense revolution (if you want to call it that) began in high school, it moved up to college, and it is gradually moving up to the NFL in the form of "the Wildcat who can throw."

Riley hit on something important though, which is that football is cyclical. Things come and go, and what we think of now as "traditional" will be the retro chic of a decade or two from now. In the meantime, guys like Riley, Nick Saban, and Lane Kiffin will continue to do it like the pros do. And you know what? There's nothing wrong with that.

But just as there's nothing wrong with the pro set, there's nothing wrong with the spread set either. It's just two different ways of doing things and if you can make it work, you'll be successful. Petrino and the Forde-quoted Indiana head man Bill Lynch are incorporating Chris Ault's pistol formation to give them both a shotgun and a pro-style one back set in the same formation. Both men prefer to have their running backs take handoffs while moving forward, and the pistol allows that without having the quarterback under center. (As a side note, the pistol is making inroads in the NFL too having been used by both the Patriots and Chiefs last season).

Though Petrino complains, he's not changing his ways entirely. He's going to teach Wilson and any other shotgun guys how to do it his way. Riley won't budge on giving his main guy the rock 25 times a game, something Michigan State and head coach Mark Dantonio did last year with Javon Ringer.

As long as those guys are coaching, and there's no reason to think they won't, then the endangered positions won't go extinct. But even if they did, there would be no reason to mourn them. Football can survive without them just as it does now without the Wing-T. After all, teaching players to do things your way is one of the primary job descriptions for a coach.

B5Q's official Wisconsin Badgers' Prediction: 9-3

Adam Hoge — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 10:00:23 -0000

Nine wins. Surprised?

Don't be. I might be the only person predicting that many wins this year, but it's really not out of the question.

Why? Because, the schedule isn't incredibly easy, but it is incredibly favorable.

When Northern Illinois and Hawaii were originally put on the schedule for 2009, superstars Garrett Wolfe and Colt Brennan were getting Heisman hype and both teams were possible BCS busters. Now they're just busters.

Wisconsin also skips Illinois and Penn State this season. Meanwhile, three of the Badgers four road games are at Minnesota, Indiana and Northwestern. Those aren't exactly Big Ten powerhouses.

For a team searching to rebound from a disappointing season, the Badgers couldn't have asked for a better schedule. Let's cruise through it:

Sept. 5, Northern Illinois: Win

The Huskies are one of the better programs from the MAC, the Big Ten's minor league. The reason I call it the Big Ten's "minor league" is because MAC teams love to come to Big Ten stadiums and give those teams solid non-conference competition early in the season. You also see players transfer between the Big Ten and the MAC all the time. The overrated recruits in the Big Ten (Dex Jones) transfer to the MAC after a season or two and the underrated recruits in the MAC transfer to the Big Ten after a season or two (J.J. Watt and Chris Maragos). It's almost like calling up a player to the majors and sending another player down.

Consider NIU Wisconsin's little brother. The Huskies will give UW a good game, but Wisconsin will be fine at home.

Sept. 12, Fresno State: Win

Still have questions about UW's front seven? Be prepared to see those questions answered week two, good or bad. The Bulldogs have one the deepest rushing attacks in the league with Ryan Mathews, Anthony Harding and Lonyae Miller. Like Northern Illinois, Fresno State is a decent team that could make a run at their conference title, but this is still a game the Badgers should win at home.

Sept. 19, Wofford: Win

Wofford is a good FCS opponent, but they are probably not as good as Cal Poly. Wisconsin learned its lesson a year ago and this should be a blowout.

Sept. 26, Michigan State: Win

This is the kind of game that Bret Bielema can't afford to lose. Everyone seems to love the Spartans, but I actually think they are slightly worse than a year ago after losing Javon Ringer. Remember how many carries they were forced to give him? How are they going to be better without the work-horse? Still, the Spartans are a good team, but one the Badgers have to beat on their home field.

Oct. 3, at Minnesota: Loss

The Badgers have a five-game win-streak in this series, but Minnesota has been creepingly closer to a win every year. The new stadium finally gets the Gophers over the hump and the Axe returns to Minneapolis.

Oct. 10, at Ohio State: Loss

A 1-0 Big Ten start will quickly become a 1-2 start. A win in Columbus isn't completely out of the question, especially if UW can pull off a win in Minnesota, but predicting said win right now would be foolish. This is too tough of a game for this Badgers squad.

Oct. 17, Iowa: Win

This game is very similar to the Michigan State game and is definitely a must-win for Bielema. I group UW with Iowa, Michigan State and Illinois as decent teams that are dark-horses in the Big Ten. The Badgers have the edge in that group because they don't have to play Illinois and they get the Spartans and the Hawkeyes at home. They need to go 2-0 and should go 2-0 in those games.

Oct. 31, Purdue: Win

I might be the Boilermakers toughest critic. I have them pegged for a 2-10 season with a 1-7 Big Ten record. This isn't the one conference game I have Purdue winning.

Nov. 7, at Indiana: Win

The Hoosiers won one Big Ten game last season. They might win zero this year. Badgers win.

Nov. 14, Michigan: Win

College football experts can't help but drink the Rich Rod Kool-Aid. I'm not buying it... yet. It's very possible Rich Rod never turns it around in Ann Arbor. Odds are he will, but not this season.

Nov. 21, at Northwestern: Loss

In this scenario the Badgers go to Northwestern with a 5-2 Big Ten record (8-2 overall), which means they might be playing for a share of the conference title. That's too bad. The Kitty Cats will be decent again (I have them pegged for eight wins overall) and I think they have the edge over Wisconsin in Evanston, Ill.

Dec. 5, at Hawaii: Win

This once looked like a tough game. Now it is looking very similar to the blowout win the Badgers had in Honolulu in 2005.

Overall outlook: 5-3 Big Ten, 9-3 overall

Mark it down. Wisconsin will go 7-0 at home this season. Bielema has a great home record (20-2) with both of those losses coming last season to Ohio State and Penn State. Those teams were clearly better than the Badgers. I don't see any home games like that this season. The home wins haven't always been pretty (i.e. Illinois in 2006, Minnesota and Cal Poly in 2009), but Bielema's teams have always found a way to get the job done at home against the teams they should beat. I think that continues this season.

A 5-3 Big Ten record (with a 9-3 overall record) would most likely put UW third in the Big Ten bowl pecking order. I don't think the conference will be sending two teams to the BCS so that means a return to the Outback Bowl would be in order. Personally, I am rooting for the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio. Wisconsin has exhausted its stay in Florida in recent years and the Alamo Bowl will be played Jan. 2 this season. It also might be the last year the Big Ten has ties to the Alamo Bowl.

Your thoughts? Throw out your predictions for the 2009 season below!

Michigan State Appears to be Fine after Alleged Michigan Violations

Pete Rossman — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 18:48:37 -0000

So this happened (HT: Spartalytical). As for Michigan, I don't think the NCAA will dole out any punishment. What will most likely happen is that Michigan will self-impose some sanctions, maybe cut a couple scholarships, and the NCAA won't see the need to look into those violations any further. However, this hints to a growing schism (man I've heard that word a lot in the past couple days. Thanks Brett Favre!) in the locker room, and if you don't think losing a locker room can affect a program, Bobby Williams has a sweet deal for you on a 2001 Toyota Camry.

As for Michigan State, the Free Press published an article with quotes from Javon Ringer and Otis Wiley stating that everything was by the book. The most telling quote though is one from recent transfer David Duran:

Did Duran ever feel seven-on-sevens were mandatory?

"In no way," said Duran, a sophomore from Marietta, Ga. "It was the QBs calling us and saying, ‘If you want to come out, we’ll be throwing at this time.’ "

This article was most likely published to contrast the recent goings-on at Michigan, and succeeds in providing that contrast. I wonder why no current Spartan players were contacted, but that thought is nothing that'll cause me to lose sleep.

In the grand scheme of things, this alleged rules violation will be viewed in wins and losses. If Michigan goes 8-4 this season and avoids the NCAA's hammer (which will most likely happen), the incident will be seen as a mere speed bump. However, if the Wolverines are under .500 this season, the incident could be seen as the tipping point that led to Rich Rodriguez's dismissal.

Penn State's Reason For Hope #3 - Evan Royster

BSD — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 12:00:14 -0000

Let's say for a moment the wide receivers don't come together. Let's say Daryll Clark has nothing to work with in the passing game. And let's say the offensive line is adequate, though not great. Can the offense be successful? Can they still move the ball and score enough points to cover the defense and win some ball games?

If history is an indicator, all Joe Paterno needs is a good running back and he can win a bunch of football games. This year he has Evan Royster, and Paterno has proven he can win with a whole lot less.

Evan Royster didn't get nearly the publicity he deserved last year. In the preseason all we read about was Beanie Wells, and P.J. Hill, and Javon Ringer. Even Tyrell Sutton was getting more preseason love, and once the season started Shonn Greene was the toast of the conference. But the fact is that on a per carry basis Evan Royster outperformed all of them.

Name	Carries	Yards	Yards Per Carry
Evan Royster	191	1236	*6.47*
Shonne Greene	307	1850	6.03
Beanie Wells	207	1197	5.78
P.J. Hill	234	1161	5.14
Javon Ringer	390	1637	4.30

Usually when you scan up and down the conference before the season looking for potential Heisman candidates you look for the top returning passer and the top returning rusher. So conventional wisdom would say that Daryll Clark and Evan Royster should be on the short list. But instead all we hear about is the Crybaby and, well, nobody else. No respect for Royster.

The major knock on him has been his durability. Despite playing in all 13 games, Royster had fewer carries than all the guys on the list above. His entire career has been riddled with ankle sprains, shoulder stingers, deep thigh bruises, and twisted knees.

How far Penn State goes will depend a lot on the legs of Evan Royster. If the passing game sputters, he will have to pick up the load and carry the ball 20-25 times per game.

(By the way, did I mention Royster used to play lacrosse?)

The Official WWAHT Blogpoll ballot: Numbers 21-25

Sam @ WWAHT — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 14:00:10 -0000

This man may end up having a better year than you think.

I'm proud to announce (technically, re-announce) that WWAHT will be participating in this year's blogpoll, and trying to follow the general set of guidelines as best as possible. One of the recommendations made to participants by MGoBrian is to vet our ballots with our readers, in order to make sure they aren't quite as jankity as they would otherwise be. Since practice has been uneventful after the chaotic first day and non-fluffy news is hard to come by, I'll reveal the ballot slowly over the coming weeks. First up are numbers 21-25.

Since preseason polls are largely meaningless, I don't have much rationale behind much of the rankings aside from the fact that, generally, this is where I expect the teams to finish at the end of this season. This is not necessarily how "good" I feel a team is heading into the season, if you catch my drift.

21. Iowa

I put the Hawkeyes here because I'm a genuine believer in Ricky Stanzi, and I think a competent quarterback to go with Iowa's typically stellar running game and defense is a recipe for an 8 win season, at the very least. But, the schedule is brutal; they travel to Penn State, MSU, and Ohio State - all winnable games for the plucky bastards from Iowa City, but enough of a rough stretch that I have my doubts.

22. Nebraska

I think Nebraska has found a keeper in former Buckeye safety Bo Pelini, but things aren't going to get much easier in the second year of his regime: Virginia Tech on the road is tough for any team (and will be tough for the Buckeyes when they make the trip down to Blacksburg in 2015), and although Oklahoma and Texas Tech come to Lincoln, splitting the two would be an absolute dream for a team that's still lacking in talent compared to the rest of its league, especially the behemoths from the Big 12 South. Nebraska also needs to find a way to keep within 20 points of rival Missouri, who thoroughly dominated the Huskers in Chase Daniel's final two years.

23. Michigan State

Mark Dantonio has finally transformed Michigan State into a solid, vaguely consistent Big Ten outfit. Success against Ohio State and Penn State is still hard to come by, but this season, they miss the Buckeyes, and they get Michigan in East Lansing. I'm a little worried about having the Spartans this low, however; eyeballing the schedule, there is only one game in which I'd even come close to guaranteeing a loss, and that's against Illinois in Champagne. They also get Penn State in East Lansing to close the season, so it's a bit of an understatement to say that the schedule sets up for a breakout season. In the end, I just don't have enough confidence in a post-Javon Ringer MSU offense to place them any higher than this. But consider yourself warned: these guys have the schedule any dark horse Big Ten championship candidate would die for.

24. Miami (FL)

I put Miami here based on accrued defensive talent alone, and not for Randy Shannon's ability to manage a football game. Shannon is a good coach, one who actually seems to be taking advantage of Miami's massive talent hauls on the defensive side of the ball. Sean Spence was absolutely horrifying as a true freshman; if Miami just fielded him on defense, I think they'd still win five games. However, this is still the Miami we've seen the last couple years to the outside eye (minus offensive coordinator Patrick Nix, which is a huge, huge plus), and I think we can expect one more year of the same before a big 2010.

25. Notre Dame

Many people are predicting big things for the Irish, and when I can, I remind those people of this:

Under Charlie Weis, Notre Dame can (and in some instances will) lose any game to any opponent. I look at Notre Dame's schedule and I see blah:

9/05/09	Nevada	Notre Dame, IN	Notre Dame Stadium
9/12/09	@ Michigan	Ann Arbor, MI	Michigan Stadium
9/19/09	Michigan State	Notre Dame, IN	Notre Dame Stadium
9/26/09	@ Purdue	West Laffayette, IN	Rose Ade Stadium
10/3/09	Washington	Notre Dame, IN	Notre Dame Stadium
10/17/09	USC	Notre Dame, IN	Notre Dame Stadium
10/24/09	Boston College	Notre Dame, IN	Notre Dame Stadium
10/31/09	vs. Washington State	San Antonio, Texas	Alamo Dome
11/7/09	Navy	Notre Dame, IN	Notre Dame Stadium
11/14/09	@ Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh, PA	Heinz Field
11/21/09	Connecticut	Notre Dame, IN	Notre Dame Stadium
11/28/09	@ Stanford	Palo Alto, CA	Stanford Stadium

Notre Dame will likely be favored in every game but the obvious one, but if it can lose to GERG Robinson-led Syracuse, you're telling me it can't lose to Boston College, Michigan State, Michigan, Navy, Pitt, UConn and Stanford? I don't think it will, of course, otherwise, I wouldn't rank them here. But I simply don't see the Irish rolling in every game except USC; it's gotten to the point with Weis where anything less than three losses, even with seven home games (eight if you count the "neutral site" outing against WSU in Texas, in which the seven-strong WSU Dallas Alumni club will show up, and that's about it), seems like a miracle.

Alright, so if you see any grave injustices in this, the most boring part of the blogpoll, let me know.

Know thy Opponent 2009: Michigan State Spartans

BoilerTMill — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 14:15:49 -0000

My Big Ten road trip last season was to East Lansing. I braved the wind and cold to officially watch our bowl chances go up in smoke. This year, Michigan State comes to West Lafayette on Senior Day. It will be the final home game for 21 Purdue seniors, and if we don't have five wins or more at this point, it could mean the difference between a bowl game and another season home for the holidays.

Michigan State is an interesting team. We did not adapt to the cold well last year and had a number of dropped passes. We handed them seven points on an awful interception before halftime. Also, at one point we had to play a fourth string walk-on scout team quarterback. Still, we did not play that badly (at least on defense) in a 21-7 loss. That gives me hope that this year can be different.

2008 Record: 9-4, (6-2 Big Ten)

Bowl Result: lost Capitol One Bowl 24-12 to Georgia

Blog Representation: The Only Colors, The Enlightened Spartan, Sparty MSU

Series with Purdue: Michigan State leads 30-28-3

Last Purdue win: 11/4/2006 at Michigan State 17-15

Last Michigan State win: 11/8/2008 at Michigan State 21-7

Last season for the Spartans:

Last year was a Purdue-esque season for Michigan State. I think we can all agree that the Big Ten as a whole was in the middle of a down year. Michigan State played nine mediocre-to-bad teams and four really good teams. Predictably, they finished with a 9-4 record. They lost a relatively close game on the road at California, got trucked by Ohio State and Penn State, then lost the Capitol One Bowl to a good Georgia team. There was little doubt they were the third best team in the conference, as there was clear separation between them, the top of Ohio State and Penn State, and everyone else.

Are Sparty and Pete long lost brothers?

A huge reason for their success, Javon Ringer, is now gone. Brian Hoyer is also gone at the quarterback position. Their 2009 non-conference schedule is sneaky tough. Aside from a gimme game against Montana State, Michigan State hosts two of the better teams in the MAC. Games against Central Michigan and Western Michigan are hardly easy wins because both teams feature solid offenses with veteran quarterbacks. Both are more than capable of pulling an upset. There is also a trip to Notre Dame, where everyone in the country hopes the Spartans can continue their ownership of the Irish in Notre Dame Stadium. The hopes of a nation are with the Spartans that day, as a Michigan State victory would give Notre Dame one of the critical four losses needed to assure they don't get another undeserved BCS bowl bid.

As far as our game last season with the Spartans, I felt it was another missed opportunity. The defense played well and prevented Ringer from going totally nuts, but our offense failed to do anything until a final 98 yard drive that prevented a shutout. We had a good game plan, but one mistake (Siller's awful pick six) pretty much ruined any chance of a victory.

Michigan State offense:

Michigan State must find a way to replace Javon Ringer. Ringer had a monster season, rushing an astounding 390 times for 1,637 yards and 22 TD's. For good measure, he added 28 receptions for another 190 yards and even returned 11 kicks for 224 yards. He outscored the kicker, which is rare, and accounted for more than a third of Michigan State's total yardage gained on the season. Andre Anderson was second on the team in rushing attempts and yards with only 26 carries for 97 yards. Hoyer and Ashton Leggett are the only other players that had a rushing touchdown, each scoring once. Glenn Winston, who was recently released from jail, has now been reinstated as well.

How do you replace a guy that touches the ball on 429 different plays? Anderson, now a sophomore, is first in line to be the starter at tailback. Most likely, however, they will try to replace the yards by committee. A.J. Jimmerson and Leggett will also be contributors as Michigan State looks, at this early stage, to have the same running back-by-committee approach that we will have. They also have a star running back recruit that is a bit of a wild card like our own Al-Terek McBurse. Edwin Baker was one of the best high school running backs in the country last season. He is 5'10", 205 and already has enough size to make an early impression.

The quarterback battle is another key area for Michigan State. Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol appear to be dead even for the starting job at the moment, and both could play significant minutes. Nichol sat out last season after transferring from Oklahoma, while Cousins saw a decent amount of action as Hoyer's backup. Cousins' 32 completions on 43 attempts gave him a very high percentage. He ended up with 310 yards passing and two touchdowns against one interception. That in-game experience may give him a very slight edge for now.

Many of the top receivers return from a unit that was very balanced. Blair White (49-659-1) had the most receptions, but tight end Charlie Gantt (19-304-4) was the leader in touchdowns. Michigan State was not afraid to go to Gantt in short yardage situations or at the goal line. Gantt actually had the longest reception of the season for Michigan State with an 82 yard catch and run. B.J. Cunningham (41-528-0) will be the main #2 receiver, while Mark Dell (36-679-3) led the team in receiving yards. This is an experienced receiving unit that should help the growth of either Cousins or Nichol.

The Spartans must replace the entire right side of their offensive line, which was possibly the best part of the line. Rocco Cironi at 6'6" 308 is the anchor at left tackle, and he is an excellent run blocker. This line will likely excel at run blocking once again as the passing game gets used to a new quarterback. Of course, this late in the season Michigan State should be together and will likely be playing much better than at the beginning. Joel Foreman and Joel Nitchman provide stability as returning starters at left guard and center, respectively.

Michigan State defense:

It is no surprise that Michigan State's defense continues to get better, as Mark Dantonio is a defense-first style of coach. This year, the Spartans return eight starters from a unit that got better, but still struggled against the really good teams on its schedule. Cal, Penn State, and Ohio State scored seemingly at will on the Spartans, but this unit did play a respectable game against Georgia in the bowl game.

One of the biggest losses on defense was safety Otis Wiley. Wiley delivered a hit on Kory Sheets in the 2007 game that led to a fumble return for a touchdown that sealed the game for MSU. Junior Marcus Hyde is the leading candidate to replace him after registering 31 tackles and an interception in reserve action. Johnny Adams could see the field at cornerback, and he already has hurt us. It was his pick six just before halftime in last year's game that virtually sealed that loss. Unfortunately for him, Ross Weaver and Chris Rucker already have the starting spots nailed down. Danny Fortener will man the other safety spot, giving Michigan State one of the most experienced secondaries in the Big Ten. The group managed 14 interceptions last year, but four came from Wiley.

Linebacker Greg Jones is probably the player to watch on the defense. He led the team in tackles and tackles for loss last year, registering 127 stops and 14 behind the line of scrimmage. He is excellent against the run and could be one of the top linebackers in the nation. Eric Gordon and Brandon Denson will play the outside spots, though Denson is a bit undersized by Big Ten standards. Gordon was second on the team with 85 tackles and added three sacks in 2008. This unit is not afraid to blitz the quarterback, making pass protection difficult.

Senior defensive end Trevor Anderson has been with Dantonio since his time at Cincinnati. He had 8 sacks a year ago, but three came against Michigan. He tends to play in streaks, so he will either have a monster game or all but disappear against us. Colin Neely is the newcomer to the defensive line at the other end position. He and tackle Kevin Pickleman are undersized, but will be sued more as pass rusher than run stoppers. That's to be expected as good as MSU's linebackers are. Oren Wilson is a true sophomore, but he started every game at tackle as a freshman last year.

Michigan State Special Teams:

Brett Swenson makes sure that the Spartans get points any time they get near the end zone. He was 22 of 28 on field goals with a long of 50 yards. He has made 52 career field goals in his time in East Lansing, making him one of the Big Ten's most proficient kickers. Aaron Bates also returns as a solid punter, averaging 42 yards per boot. The punt coverage wasn't great, however, as teams averaged 10 yards per return and MSU did give up a touchdown.

The kickoff return game struggled mightily, not even averaging 20 yards per return. It should be a lively competition to see who gets the starting job here, but A.J. Jimmerson is the leading candidate. With Wiley gone, Michigan State also must find a new punt returner.

Intangibles:

It is senior day for us, so that has to be worth something. Unfortunately, we are getting Michigan State at the end of the season instead of the beginning. By this point, both the quarterback and running back derbies should be settled. The defense will likely play at a very high level all season long. All they need is an offense that can go out and give them 20-25 points per game. With no Ohio State on the schedule, it is possible that the Spartans will be a week away from a very big home game against Penn State for the Big Ten title. If they are looking ahead it will be beneficial to us, but I doubt they will be looking ahead.

Still, I don't think this is a daunting team. Last year they were good and just beat up on a mediocre league. They are in the same position to do so this year. Our game in East Lansing was hardly a dominating blowout. Our mistakes gave MSU more than enough to win. We handed them seven points and generated virtually nothing on offense because of dropped passes. This has been a wild series since 1997 where the best team hasn't necessarily won every game. That was true of our surprising upset in 1999 as it was of Michigan State's in 2000.

I hate myself for leaving this game early

Game Outlook:

Again, I don't like that this game is at the end of the year. Michigan State is too solid of a team and could have too much to play for. Look at some of our recent wins over them. In 1997 and 1998 we won because of their mistakes late in games they dominated. Our last win in the series in 2006 came about because of a late interception that set up Casey Welch's late field goal. When we have won it has been because the Spartans screwed up. If they play a mistake free game we lose. I see that happening again here.

Prediction:

We had better five wins at this point, because if we're counting on this one as #5 I think we will be in for a long wait. I still think Indiana is our ace in the hole for getting win #6 and the bowl bid that comes with it. Beating Michigan State would be nice, but they simply are better and more experienced than us right now. I think we lose a close one at home where their maturity comes through. Michigan State 24, Purdue 21