SB Nation - B.J. Cunningham

MSU-TT in the Alamo Bowl: Suspension Impact?

grahamfiller10 — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 01:52:33 -0000

Tearing on another team's disciplinary or academic problems is usually an uninteresting pursuit that can quickly turn against you. For every Ed Martin (Michigan booster who gave 280k to Chris Webber), there's a Maurice Clarett and a Charles Rogers. So MSU's reputation, although tarnished by the fact that there are gangs of unruly Spartan football players roving around East Lansing, will remain similar to any other major program.

So will there be any REAL impact on the Texas Tech game? What does Leach need to know about Animal House 2: When Players Attack?

Here is a list from TOC of the players suspended over the incident -

Roderick Jenrette, 22, of East Lansing; conspiracy and three counts of assault or assault and battery.

Glenn Winston, 20, East Lansing; conspiracy and two counts of assault or assault and battery.

Frederick Smith, 19, Macomb Township; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

B.J. Cunningham, 20, Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

Jamiihr Williams, 20, East Lansing; conspiracy and count of assault or assault and battery.

Mark Dell, 20, Lansing; a count of assault or assault and battery.

Ashton Leggett, 20, Muskegon; conspiracy and two counts of assault or assault and battery.

J'Micheal Deane, 23, East Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

Chris L. Rucker, 21, East Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

All nine individuals are charged with conspiracy, which is a misdemeanor with a one-year maximum. The other charges are also misdemeanors, and have a 93-day maximum sentence.

You know what happens every time TO gets traded from a a team? Everyone breathes a sign of relief because the negative distraction is gone. Might that be at play here with some of these players? Probably not. Dell, Cunningham, and Rucker were healthy and would have started versus TT if not for the Night of the Long Masks. Although the secondary was generally horrendous, Rucker was an aggressive corner, which is obviously helpful if DC Narduzzi had decided to pull up his corners in bump coverage. Dell and Cunningham were #2 and #3 in reception yards for Sparty, which leads me to believe that 1) Blair White is going to be doubled, 2) we're going to see a TE in a slot position and 3) if a backup WR drops a ball early or runs a wrong route, there is going to be great wailing and gnashing of teeth (H/T: Book of Job).

Is Mike Leach giggling like a schoolgirl ~~in the hopes that Saint Nicholas will soon be there~~ because of the general upheaval that has enveloped the depth chart and pissed off some of the Spartan fan base? Probably not. Vegas will steadily increase that 8 point line for the Red Raiders and overconfidence can grow, which will give Leach incentive to push his troops. Kirk Cousins is still around with his laser rocket arm, though featuring less weapons to throw too. Adversity usually has one of two effects on individuals: Either people step up and play more minutes than usual while making plays...or they wilt under the scrutiny and added responsibility. Blair White and Keshawn Martin are talented enough to play the whole game, while MSU's tight end depth is the best in the Big Ten. Both Sims or Linthicum are quick enough to play slot.

A huge gut check is in line for Michigan State at the Alamo Bowl. Will they go out like Jim Bowie, cursing and firing until bayoneted? Or will the tumult and addition of walk-ons getting PT be too much for the Spartans to endure?

Michigan State Football Players Charged with Assault

Pete Rossman — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 21:46:30 -0000

From the State News:

The players are Roderick Jenrette, Glenn Winston, Fred Smith, B.J. Cunningham, Mark Dell, Jamiihr Williams, Ashton Leggett, J’Michael Deane and Chris L. Rucker.

The Ingham County prosecutor's office did state that they wanted to file charges before finals week, and here they are. The only one on that list that hasn't been mentioned in the news yet is Deane. For some reason he wasn't punished along with the other players in the altercation, I'm guessing there's a bowl game suspension in the cards (Edit: Deane suspension confirmed, check update #2 - PR). The two players who were punished by Dantonio but not charged with assault were Ishmyl Johnson and Brynden Trawick.

In all, the only aspect of these charges that was unexpected was the assault charge against Deane. Hopefully this can be settled quick and we can put this incident in the past. The announced charges could've been a lot worse - according to one victim's attourney 15-20 players were present, meaning that 5-10 more charges could've been filed if adequate proof existed.

UPDATE: The Detroit News has a list of the specific charges:

The players accused and the charges are:

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Roderick Jenrette, 22, of East Lansing; conspiracy and three counts of assault or assault and battery.

Glenn Winston, 20, East Lansing; conspiracy and two counts of assault or assault and battery.

Frederick Smith, 19, Macomb Township; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

B.J. Cunningham, 20, Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

Jamiihr Williams, 20, East Lansing; conspiracy and count of assault or assault and battery.

Mark Dell, 20, Lansing; a count of assault or assault and battery.

Ashton Leggett, 20, Muskegon; conspiracy and two counts of assault or assault and battery.

J'Micheal Deane, 23, East Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

Chris L. Rucker, 21, East Lansing; conspiracy and a count of assault or assault and battery.

All nine individuals are charged with conspiracy, which is a misdemeanor with a one-year maximum. The other charges are also misdemeanors, and have a 93-day maximum sentence.

UPDATE #2 - Yup, Deane's been suspended, along with another wide receiver, Chris D. Rucker and defensive back Donald Spencer per The State News. On a related note, if you are an MSU student with a fast 40 time and ~~good~~ ~~decent~~ two hands, I'd start checking with the football staff about opportunities for a free trip to San Antonio this January.

Preview: Michigan State vs. Penn State

LVS — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:20:02 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

about 1 month ago: Michigan State's Keshawn Martin (82) scores a touchdown on a 48-yard pass reception during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Western Michigan, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in East Lansing, Mich. Michigan State won 49-14. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

Browse more photos »

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN

3:30 (ET), ABC (coverage map)

WEATHER: 52 DEGREES AT KICKOFF, TEMPERATURE FALLING AFTER DUSK.

Hey, a game that's not the most important of the season! Your Spartans obviously did the heavy lifting last week against Purdue; in all likelihood, this game is not about whether MSU will make a bowl, but rather, about whether we're going to San Antonio or Orlando or, of course, rollin' down Woodward to Ford Field (!). Penn State, after a season that has to be characterized as quite disappointing, amazingly still has a shot at a BCS berth. You know the backstory: last season, PSU absolutely demolished us; the season before, however, was good times:

It appears that the play-by-play guy attended the Joe Buck school of announcing excitement. Also, I miss Devin Thomas.

So, here cometh TEH GREATEST RIVALRY GAME IN ALL TEH LAND, and the opportunity to beat a team with a pulse for the first time this season. (Says the guy whose team's best win is against Temple. w00t.) The 8-million member PSU blogosphere and commentariat seems surprisingly reticent about this game. But, after last week's defensive fiasco I'm simply not comfortable picking us to win against teams with competent offenses. Penn State is such a team. I'd love to be proven wrong.

More, after the jump.

Big game plz, Colin.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: At this point, I think the secondary is probably going to suck no matter what we do, so we might as well stack the box to try to stop the run and get as much pressure on Darryl Clark as possible. Indeed, as RUTS told us, this is what you want to do with Clark:

He's like about any other good, but not great, quarterback. If he has a clean pocket and can set his feet, he's as good as anyone in the country. If he gets hit too much, he gets rattled and starts making bad decisions with the ball. In that sense, he can be knocked back into looking like a talented quarterback in his second or third start -- he thinks he can make throws that he can't actually pull off.

Clark struggled mightily in the Iowa and Ohio State games--and even in the Illinois game--because he was under pressure (ding ding ding da da ding ding). Pressuring him may allow Clark some opportunities to scramble (as Brian said earlier this year, he's "not Michael Vick but isn't John Navarre, either."), but it's probably the best chance to contain the PSU offense. PSU partisans seem to think that our defensive line will have success against their offensive line, and pressure Clark heavily; I'm not so certain. Many anticipated that Penn State's offensive line was going to be the downfall of the team this year, as it was the most inexperienced group in the conference. PSU has allowed only 12 sacks on the season, although it looked overmatched against Adrian Clayborn and Cameron Heyward, among others. But, uh, we don't have Clayborn or Heyward; we've got a defensive line which failed to pressure Joey Elliott (until the last play, of course), and hasn't proven the ability to apply pressure on its own. My suspicion is that, if PSU is content to throw from three-step drops, they'll have a lot of success: we won't have the ability to get to Clark that quickly, and our secondary is obviously vulnerable. Bottom line: stack the box, try to get pressure, hope for the best.

And, about those guys Clark will be throwing to: RUTS sez . . .

Starting WR Chaz Powell is out for the game with a shoulder injury. In his place, you'll see a rotating group including the very tall Brett Brackett and the very quick Curtis Drake. Maybe true freshman Justin Brown gets in the game, but I doubt it. Graham Zug had a nightmare game against Indiana last week, but that was mostly due to fumbling punts. He runs good routes and gets open against passive zone coverages. Really, that goes for the whole group -- if you can press and bump them, they become ineffective quickly. [ . . . ]

Derek Moye is probably our best receiver, but he was totally shut out by Ohio State's press coverage and only had two catches for 28 yards against Indiana. Because of that, I suspect PSU will make an effort to get him involved quickly.

Moye is indeed good: 41 catches for 676 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. He's 6'5", 195 pounds . . . and if you're thinking, "holy hell, he's Mike Floyd in disguise," well, yeah, me too. He's not quite there, talent-wise, but, erm, I wouldn't want to be fighting for a jump ball against him. I suspect that our cornerbacks wouldn't want to be, either. And, yeah, about that Quarless guy: he reminds me a lot of Kellen Davis in that he's ludicrous athletically, but the results don't quite meet the expectations. But, the same could be said of Garrett Graham, and that didn't end so well for us earlier this year.

This is probably Evan Royster's last regular season game for Penn State, as most expect him to jump to the NFL.
Last year, he only carried the ball 12 times against MSU, but those carries were relatively successful, as he averaged 6.6 yards per game. This season, he's been a bit up-and-down: he had big games against Northwestern and Minnesota, but not-so-good efforts against Iowa and Ohio State. MSU's rush defense has been mostly a positive this season, although last week was a bit of a regression. I suspect that Royster will approach 100 yards but not be the deciding factor in this game. His backup, Stephfon Green, has intermittently battled injuries and hasn't played much or well since the Illinois game much earlier this season.

Safe to say at this point: one of my all-time favorite Spartan football players.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: . . . we need for Kirk Cousins to have the best game of his career. As a preliminary matter, let's stipulate that we're going to get basically nothing against Penn State on the ground: the Lions are 8th nationally against the run, and our rushing offense is not good. The goal in this game should be to do just enough to semi-effectively set up play action.

Ah, so the main event: MSU's passing offense vs. Penn State's pass defense. It starts wtih the offensive line, obviously. Penn State doesn't have Tamba Hali or Courtney Brown or anyone of similar fear-producing ability, but the stats are certainly there: they lead the conference in sacks, and while Brian noted that:

[t]he numbers are impressive—PSU is 11th nationally with three sacks per game—but there is the whole schedule thing to take into account. Jack Crawford has four sacks, all of which come against the Akrons and Temples on the schedule. In Penn State's three real-ish games, they acquired one sack (Odrick) against Minnesota, three (Crawford, Latimore, Stanley) against Illinois, and two (Hull and Crawford/Lynn) against Iowa.

. . . Penn State sacked Forcier/Robinson 5 times, and then, the next week, sacked Mike Kafka 6 times. Since then, things have cooled down a bit: they weren't able to sack Terrelle Pryor (although Pryor is surely one of the most difficult sacks in the country), and were only able to get to Ben Chappell twice last week. Nonetheless, this is an impressive line; they're led by scary beast Jared Odrick, who has 6 sacks, and the aforementioned Jack Crawford, who now has 5.5. RUTS says that:

Penn State loves to just send the defensive line if they can get away with it. The defensive scheme actually depends on it, but PSU's defensive ends have been several notches below their predecessors. There's no Aaron Maybin, Maurice Evans, or Tamba Hali on this defensive line, so they'll send linebackers on occasion, and maybe mix in a corner blitz once or twice per game, but that's it.

We can't let them get tons of pressure from the front four alone. I know it's tempting disaster to say that I *want* Navorro Bowman, Sean Lee, and the corners to blitz, but Penn State blitzing and leaving the secondary exposed is how Cousins will be able to throw for lots of yards.

Penn State's defense is statistically impressive against the pass: 16th nationally in pass efficiency defense, and 17th nationally in pass defense. Once again, I'll let RUTS write my preview for me:

Penn State can be thrown on, but they do their best to protect any obvious liabilities in the secondary. Free Safety Nick Sukay has steadily improved throughout the year. Drew Astorino (#28) plays the other safety position, and it's no secret that he's trying to fight through a shoulder injury. CB A.J. Wallace sustained a concussion last week, he's listed as "possible" for Sparty. So there may be opportunities for you in the passing game.

So, PSU is good, but they're not scary in the way that Iowa is: this season, the Lions have allowed 252 yards passing to Northwestern, 263 to Illinois (!), and 298 last week to Indiana. (Note that they won all three of those games, however.) Quite frankly, our passing offense is better than any of those teams'. I think Cousins has a big day, and throws for at least 250 yards; look for B.J. Cunningham to play the Devin Thomas role this time around. If he's able to deliver, Cousins stands in line for first team all-conference honors, so there should be some personal motivation, too.

FINAL PREDICTION: Cut and paste, for starters:

Clark picked our defense apart last year, and while you don't have Derrick Williams anymore, our pass defense is even worse this time around. Also, I have distressing visions of Jared Odrick pwning whoever's blocking him and not giving Cousins enough time to be comfortable.

More generally, Dantonio has done a lot of good things during his time at MSU, but beating teams with appreciably more talent certainly hasn't been one of those things. So, I'll remain skeptical until we finally win one of these games. It's at home, which is good, and I could definitely see the special teams stats ending up very lopsided in our favor. But PSU is the better team, and you're playing for more: a win for us would upgrade our bowl game slightly, but a win for PSU might send you guys to the BCS. So, an upset isn't out of the possibility, but I'm not particularly optimistic.

I wrote that yesterday morning, and honestly, I'm a bit more optimistic now. Penn State fans seem quite worried about this game, and one columnist even questions whether Penn State's players even have their hearts into the game anymore. Which, like, what? Even if that's true, you're playing for the BCS! I'd dismiss it out of hand if the sentiment didn't seem to be a common one across the PSU internets.

One thing that doesn't fit into my normal preview format: if you've been reading previews of this game anywhere else, you'll know that PSU's special teams have been an unmitigated disaster this year, and ours have been very good. I'm normally skeptical that special teams play has any predictive value, but here the discrepancy between the teams seems so great that it may indeed be relevant this week. Keshawn Martin, Brett Swenson, Aaron Bates: keep on doing what you do so well. kthx.

Nonetheless, this is a pretty talented football team we're playing. PSU is excellent on defense, and the offense -- with many of the same players -- ripped us apart last year. It seems that I'm saying this every week now, but truly, our defense will determine whether we win this game. If they show up, we have a chance. If they play like they did last week, we don't. It's awfully tempting to say that MSU wins this game on the strength of the passing game and special teams play. But, visions of Quarless and Zug running rampant across the middle of the field prevent me from tempting fate, for now. Penn State 31, Michigan State 27.

Your thoughts welcome, of course.

Michigan State preview

BoilerTMill — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:52:29 -0000

When I saw this game on the schedule I felt it was the biggest toss-up of the year. I expected to be teetering on the edge of bowl eligibility at this point (certainly without wins over Ohio State and Michigan) but I didn't know what to think of the Spartans. Being game 11, it was hard to predict how seasons would turn out on both sides. I felt confidence about beating Indiana, but I have virtually ignored Michigan State for multiple reasons. First, the game felt far off. Second, it later felt like the game would not matter. Now that it is here, I still don't know what to think.

I am really surprised that this is the best offense in the Big Ten. I am more surprised that their defense has been so bad. Like Ben and I discussed in the podcast last night, just about the opposite was expected from the Spartans. The defense has been pretty good at home, but has struggled mightily on the road. As Ben said though, they have faced better offenses (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Minnesota) on the road than at home (Western Michigan, Montana State, Michigan).

In short this is a huge game for both teams, though we have less of a margin for error (none) than Michigan State.

2009 Record: 5-5, 3-3 Big Ten

2008 Record: 9-4, 6-2 Big Ten

Bowl Result: lost Capitol One Bowl 24-12 to Georgia

Blog Representation: The Only Colors, The Enlightened Spartan, Sparty MSU

Series with Purdue: Michigan State leads 30-28-3

Last Purdue win: 11/4/2006 at Michigan State 17-15

Last Michigan State win: 11/8/2008 at Michigan State 21-7

Long lost brothers meet again

Michigan State offense:

This is really the best offense statistically in the Big Ten? I guess you're right. Michigan is flaky. Ohio State wins with defense, as does Iowa Most of the time. Minnesota has had one great offensive game against Michigan State. Indiana is surprisingly good. Illinois has only been good for two weeks. Northwestern is opportunistic. Purdue moves the ball, but we give it away almost as much as we score. Penn State can't score against good teams. Wisconsin is afraid to pass. That leaves Michigan State.

The Spartans don't have a dominant running back like Javon Ringer any more, but their running game is surprisingly balanced. No one has run for more than 400 yards, but seven players have at least 100 yards rushing (compared to three such players for us). Leading rusher Larry Coyer (375 yard, 6 TD's) is a question mark after suffering a concussion a few weeks ago, but Ashton Leggett (110-4) took over the position with authority last week by running for 110 yards and 4 TD's on 14 carries. He had one carry for 0 yards previously, and that came in the season opener against Montana State. Edwin Baker (242-0) also had his best game of the season last week with 15 carries for 78 yards.

Ashton Leggett had a breakout game against Western Michigan

At quarterback we will see both kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol. Thoughts on that issue are best summed up here by the Michigan State faithful. Cousins (158-148, 14 TD, 5 INT, 2,097 yards) has been by far the better quarterback, but Mark Dantonio insists on getting Nichol (45-86, 6 TD, 3 INT, 680 yards) some work in each game. The duo has combined to be the best passing attack in the league, so our secondary will be tested. Expect Cousins to start and Nichol to play.

Nichol and Cousins like to spread the ball around, though there is one top receiver to focus on. Blair White (58-836-7) will remind Purdue fans a lot of Chris Daniels. He is one of the conference's top receivers and will be the number one option on many plays. B.J. Cunningham (41-510-3) is a solid second option as Michigan State will likely look to pass first. Tight end Brian Linthicum (18-259-2) gives each quarterback a reliable safety valve and goal line option. Keshawn Martin (12-251-3) is a speedy deep threat. He has a 91 yard score on his resume this season. Mark Dell (25-392-1) can also be a deep option.

The reason that Michgian State's passing game has been so successful is its offensive line. The Spartans have given up just 12 sacks on the year, but they have yet to see a pass rush as fierce as ours. I fear another Wisconsin game because Michigan State has a big, experienced offensive line. Seniors Brendon Moss, Joel Nitchman, and Rocco Cironi form the core, but juniors Joel Foreman and D.J. Young are hardly stiffs. This is not a tall line, but they are compact and strong. We must respond tot heir physicality better than we did against Wisconsin.

Michigan State defense:

While our defense may struggle to slow down their very good passing game, our own passing game should have plenty of room to move as long as we can avoid turnovers. Michigan State defends the run well, giving up barely more than 100 yards per game. They are giving up over 230 yards per game through the air with a whopping 22 touchdowns. Ball security could be even more of an issue. Michigan State has forced only 11 turnovers this season, so it is critical that we don't help them out with dumb turnovers like we have helped other teams all year long.

The run defense begins with one of the best linebackers in the Big Ten, if not the entire country. Greg Jones is a beast of a player in the middle. He already has 117 tackles (11 for loss) 7.5 sacks, and a fumble recovery. He loves to get after the quarterback, and you can bet he will end up wherever the ball is. Fellow linebackers Brandon Denson (54 tackles) and Eric Gordon (70 tackles) help him out. All three are the top tacklers for Michigan State.

Michigan State starts a pair of senior defensive ends in Trevor Anderson (4 sacks) and Colin Neely (2 sacks). Tackles Jerel Worthy and Oren Wilson are stout against the run, while Worthy can get into the backfield with 4.5 sacks. Wilson is a big nose tackle that will be difficult to get around in the middle of the line, but we mostly run outside anyway.

The Spartan secondary can be exploited. Corners Chris Rucker and Jeremy Ware have been disappointing this year. Each has just one interception, but more than 40 tackles. Marcus Hyde and Dan Fortener have played every game at the safety spots, but have only one interception between them. We should have some room to move in the passing game since coverage is not their strong suit.

Michigan State Special Teams:

Aaron Bates is one of the league's better punters at 42 yards per kick. Teams are averaging 8 yards per return against him, but we seem to be employing a strategy of catching the ball then falling down of late, so it doesn't matter. Michigan State is giving up 22 yards per kick return, so ATM might have some room.

Brett Swinson is one of the best kickers in the Big Ten. He has hit on 14 of 16 field goal with a long of 45. he did miss his only attempt last week from 37, so he isn't automatic. Keshawn Martin is a dangerous kick returner who has already taken one back for a score. He also returns punts, so our coverage must be better than last week.

Intangibles:

Purdue clearly needs this more. We're on a roll (if you remove the Wisconsin game) and playing at home with a senior class that has overachieved this year. Michigan State can afford a loss, while we cannot. They at least have the fallback of a second chance at home next week. We do not.

Michigan State has also performed poorly on the road this year. They grabbed a win at Illinois when Illinois was terrible, but it was only a hard fought 10 point victory. They gave up a ton of points to Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in their other road trips. I am really surprised that their defense has underperformed this season. It was supposed to be a strength while the offense replaced Brian Hoyer and Jevon Ringer. Instead, the offense has been fine while the defense has given up a ton of yards through the air.

Defensively, we want to make Michigan State run the ball. They do not have a strong running game, and many of its numbers are inflated by last week and the opener against Montana State. They have had the luxury of two laughers there, while we have had about half of one against Toledo. If our secondary can keep the passing game in check I have confidence the run defense will come around. Michigan and Wisconsin have gashed us the last two weeks, but they are much better running teams than the Spartans. Of course, Illinois was a bad running team too.

Offensively, if we can establish some balance with Ralph Bolden I think we will do very well. If we somehow get him to 100 yards I do not see us losing because the passing game will have plenty of time to work.

Keys to the Game for Purdue:

Do not let their running game get moving
Establish Ralph Bolden
No stupid turnovers
Control the clock
Get after Cousins/Nichol

Preview: Michigan State vs. Northwestern

LVS — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 20:36:02 -0000

[Sorry for the delayed posting. --LVS.]

Hey! Let's celebrate a big comeback which ended up meaning absolutely nothing in one of the worst MSU football seasons ever!

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN
NOON, ESPN2
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY, 42-45 DEGREES

After a tremendously disappointing start to the season, in the last two weeks your Spartans have effectively turned things around, and at least left open the possibility for this to become a successful season. What the 3-game losing streak does mean, though, is that there is no more margin for error, and a game like Saturday's -- at home, against a less-talented team -- has gone from "should win" to "must win," lest our rehabilitated 3-3 record become 3-5 by next Saturday night. Northwestern has had quite a bit of success recently in East Lansing; they've won the last two, including a game in 2007 which stands as our poorest performance under Mark Dantonio. Our upperclassmen will remember that game too clearly to be looking ahead to Iowa. The line on this game, I believe, currently has MSU giving 12.5 points; I think that's awfully generous, but for our purposes, fortunately, beating Northwestern is more important than beating the spread. While we may not do the latter, we will do the former.

NORTHWESTERN SO FAR:

1 blowout against an overmatched 1-AA opponent (Towson);
1 very close call against an overmatched 1-A opponent (Eastern Michigan);
1 sleepwalk-type win against an overmatched 1-A opponent (Miami);
1 halfway-decent road win (but against a team which seems to find new, heartwrenching ways to lose each week -- Purdue);
1 home loss to Minnesota, an understandable defeat to a team that's roughly equivalent to MSU in talent;
1 completely inexcusable close road loss to Syracuse (Syracuse!).

Normally, it'd be difficult to say that a 4-2 record for Northwestern is disappointing, but LTP certainly is, and with some justification:

On the heels of our 9-3 2008 season buoyed by a stellar D, all signs pointed to the best D since 1995 and it has been an adventure to say the least. Our O-line was expected to be the strength of the offense with question marks at the skill positions. Mike Kafka has been a pleasant surprise with his passing and our WR corps is stellar, yet we lack a true Dell or Cunningham-like gamebreaker. Our line play has been weak and our rushing game non-existent. Essentially everything we thought would be great is not and almost vice versa. 5-1 was what we expected as a realistic worst case scenario as fans through those soft 6 games. It has been disappointing to say the least.

Still, 4-2 after 6 games certainly puts Northwestern in a position to play in a good bowl if they're able to pick up a key win or two from here forward. Presumably, Saturday would be one of the games they've circled on their calendar; despite the rough start, this is not a team that has reason to throw in the towel.

Mein bratwurst has a first name, it's "Zeke," mein bratwurst has a second name, it's "Markshausen" . . .

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: . . . hold onto your hat; Northwestern is going to want to play fast. The Wildcats ran 93 offensive plays against MSU last season, and will frequently forego huddling up between snaps. In that regard, it's fortunate that we've already played Michigan: while the offenses aren't exactly the same (Northwestern's much more of a passing team than Michigan is), the Wolverines' frequent no-huddle drives should have prepared us for the pace NU would like to play at.

Northwestern's run game has been a disappointment. Take it away, LTP:

We've stunk. The original starter Stephen Simmons has been out most of the season with an injury and true frosh Arby Fields early-on appeared to be the guy who would get the ball and become our next 4-year RB. However, our line has been horrid and our RBs have yet to show they can elude defenders. Jacob Schmidt, a short yardage back and walk-on turned schollie this year is a feisty guy, but good for 3rd and 2 and not much more. He's got great hands and turned heads with an amazing catch last week though. I can't remember our run game being so much of a detriment.

Sippin' on Purple reports that Simmons is listed first on the NU depth chart for Saturday, so they "might actually see some semblance of a running game this week." Simmons certainly seems to be an improvement over the other options:

RUSHING	GP	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Fields, Arby	6	53	210	20	190	3.6	4	25	31.7
Schmidt, Jacob	6	45	161	2	159	3.5	1	13	26.5
Simmons, Stephen	3	33	153	0	153	4.6	2	14	51.0

Limited sample size, of course, but compared to the other two, Simmons has picked up an extra yard per carry. Furthermore, QB Mike Kafka is a threat with his feet; he has 229 positive rushing yards through 6 games, and exploded into the Big Ten consciousness with a 217 yard (!) rushing effort at Minnesota last year. He's obviously reined in the rushing a bit so far this year, but given MSU's historic difficulties with rushing quarterbacks, I wouldn't be shocked to see some designed keeper plays.

Kafka's been more average passing the ball: he's currently 8th in the conference in passing efficiency (130.04, well behind Kirk Cousins' 141.81, and against lesser competition, of course), and is completing 67% of his passes, with 5 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. LTP says that Kafka "has a great arm, yet we never stretch the field and really go deep"; in my mind, that reinforces the perception that Northwestern is a team which lives and dies on the short passing game. We had tons of trouble with that type of attack against CMU, but we seemed to learn from those mistakes against Michigan.

Not surprisingly, NU's wideouts don't seem to be the deep-threat type: the top receiver is Zeke Markshausen (but can he catch frisbees in his mouth?), who has 34 catches, but for only 348 yards (10.2 average) and no touchdowns. He's not big (5'11", 185), nor fast, and he is white and a walk-on, so I believe he fully qualifies to be called "gritty" and "Welker/Chrebet-like." Drake Dunsmore (sounds like he should be sailing off of Cape Cod, no?) is the second leading receiver, and has remarkably similar numbers: 25 catches for 270 yards (10.8 average) and one touchdown. He's bigger, though: 6'3", 235. LTP also says to keep your eyes on . . .

I think Sidney Stewart might be our biggest threat (had 7 rec last year vs Sparty mostly when game was out of hand). However, I'm a big fan of Jeravin Matthews a tweener WR/RB whoseemingly makes big things happen on every touch ,yet we don't use him NEARLY enough.

. . . so, yeah. Pay attention to those guys, too.

For our defense, expect to see us play a slew of different linebackers, in an attempt to keep fresh through Northwestern's breakneck pace. Chris Norman figures heavily in the plans:

Because the Spartans are expecting more of the same, players such as true freshman outside linebacker Chris Norman better plan to have an expanded role. [ . . . ]

"The other reason is we’re going to have to play multiple people. One of Northwestern’s goals is to wear you down. But when we have athletes like Chris, who can give guys like (starter Brandon) Denson a break, we’re going to use that."

Norman already has one start, against Notre Dame, to his credit, but only six tackles. Junior Jon Misch, who backs up Eric Gordon on the other side, also figures into Tressel’s plans.

Also worth noting: NU has allowed 14 sacks through 6 games against poor competition. Their offensive line is not good. We have 10 in the past two games. We could easily make that 15 or 16 through three games by tomorrow night.

YTMND.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins is your quarterback and Larry Caper is your running back. Sounds pretty nice, eh?

LTP says that the Northwestern secondary is the team's best unit:

Our secondary was banged up and still is. It is our strongest unit though. Sherrick McManis has made some incredible picks and is finally at the lockdown mode we expected him to be after missing a couple of games due to injury. Safety Brendan Smith left last week's game, but his replacement, Brian Peters played extremely well. Jordan Mabin at the other corner is the real deal and can hit hard and Brad Phillips has been up and down, but seemst to have regained his '08 form. It is a solid unit when healthy.

. . . but statistics seem to show that they're a very average unit, albeit one that forces a lot of turnovers. They've been giving up 218 yards per game so far this season (almost 12 yards per completion), and have allowed 10 touchdown passes. But, they do have 10 interceptions, including 3 in the past 3 games for the aforementioned Sherrick McManis (who got the fluffy treatment from Teddy Greenstein in yesterday's Chicago Tribune). I'll suggest the same thing that I did before the Michigan game:

But as to the ~~Donovan Warren~~ Sherrick McManis thing: yeah, given our depth at wide receiver, we should just write off whomever he's covering and go elsewhere.

Furthermore, LTP said that Northwestern is already worried about the deep threat posed by Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham (and I'll throw in Keshawn Martin for good measure); this can't help:

The degree of difficulty increased for Northwestern on Thursday night with the announcement that veteran starting safety Brendan Smith will not play at Michigan State because of a thumb injury.

Smith -- one of only eight players in NU history to be named a co-captain in repeat seasons -- has started 38 games, including the last 19. He also is the leading punt returner for the Cats with an average of 6.6 yards, fourth best in the Big Ten.

With Smith out, Brian Peters will likely make the third start of his career.

Yeah, let's try to take some shots downfield, plz.

Against the rush, Northwestern has been better: they've allowed 716 yards through six games (119 per game), and only 3.48 yards per carry. So, this shouldn't be like it was against Illinois, where (at least in the first half, when we were making a full effort) we could hand the ball off and pretty much be guaranteed somewhere between 6-8 yards. This should be a better test for the offensive line, and for Larry Caper; if we can get solid contributions from the running game, 1) we're going to win this game, and 2) it portends good things for next week, when Iowa will be an even sterner test.

Finally, even though Corey Wootton has been more or less a non-factor so far this year, Northwestern still has 19 sacks on the season, including 4 for linebacker Quentin Davie, and 2 each for LB David Arnold, safety Brad Phillips, and defensive linemen Vince Browne, Corbin Bryant, and Kevin Watt. (The substantial number of sacks from the linebackers and secondary suggest a blitz-happy defense.) We lead the league with only six sacks allowed, and this would be a good week to keep that up, given the Cousins' slight remaining injury, Nichol's injury, and the desire not to burn Andrew Maxwell's redshirt. Honestly, I think we should be all right: the only two players who have really hurt us consistently on the rush are O'Brien Schofield and Brandon Graham, and they're the two best defensive linemen in the conference. If Wootton was healthy, he'd be in that class too, but nothing suggests that he'll be a major threat on Saturday.

THE OBLIGATORY PREDICTION: Wherein I cheat by posting something that I've already written!

The team's play has improved, and Kirk Cousins' return should be a major spark for the team. One thing you didn't mention that may be a factor: I understand that NU's offensive line has been a problem, and that plays right into our hands. MSU had 10 sacks and 18 TFLs against Michigan and Illinois, and the interior of our defensive line has been blasting into the backfield right on the snap.

Honestly, I'm shocked that the line on this game is this high. Everyone remembers what happened the last time NU came to East Lansing, so I'm sure the team and the coaching staff aren't going to be looking past this game. (Many fans, on the other hand, may already have moved their thoughts onto the Iowa game, so the stadium atmosphere may be somewhat lacking.) I think it should be an entertaining game, like most in this series have been, but our defense has really stepped up the past two weeks and I think that trend will continue. 27-17, MSU.

Your thoughts?

Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. The Illinois Fighting Illini

Pete Rossman — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 10:00:35 -0000

TV: BIG TEN NETWORK, 12 PM ET, 11 AM CT

WEATHER REPORT (as of Thursday Afternoon): Partly Cloudy, 52 degrees, 10% chance of rain

Michigan State hasn't played the Fighting Illini since Homecoming of 2006, and if you remember that game, I feel sorry for you, myself, and anyone in the rooms around either of us. The white dwarf star that is was Juice Williams burst onto the scene, beating the Spartans 23-20 for Illinois' only win against a 1-A team that season. That was how bad the John L. Smith era was, lest you forget.

Today, it seems only fitting that Juice gets benched before this game, giving way to redshirt junior Eddie McGee. Will McGee's addition spark the Illini? Can MSU establish a decent running game this week? Will I be stunned like I was three years ago? The answers to these questions can be found after the jump.

ILLINOIS ON OFFENSE

Let's get to the main question on most Spartan fans' minds: How good is Eddie McGee? Let's take a look at his stats this season:

DATE	OPP	RESULT	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	LNG	TD	INT	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD
9/5	Missouri	L 37-9	4	9	36	44.4	19	0	0	78.04	2	11	5.5	6	0
9/12	Illinois State	W 45-17	13	17	164	76.5	27	1	1	165.15	18	55	3.1	16	2
9/26	@Ohio State	L 30-0	2	4	11	50.0	7	0	1	23.10	3	-3	-1.0	4	0
10/3	Penn State	L 35-17	DNP

And for Eddie's career:

YEAR	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YPA	LNG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
2007	29	55	444	52.7	8.07	56	2	3	2	121.63
2008	4	9	59	44.4	6.56	30	0	0	0	99.51
2009	19	30	211	63.3	7.03	27	1	2	3	120.08

I think it's safe to say Eddie's not a significant upgrade in any way from Juice Williams. In fact, Eddie has a worse attempt-to-interception ratio than Juice (15 attempts to 1 INT for Eddie, 22.3 attempts to 1 INT for Juice). I interpret the quarterback switcheroo as a massive sign that Ron Zook has ascended from a mere councilman to mayor of [REDACTED], and the move won't make the Illini offense significantly better. Michigan State won't have to worry about the passing game as long as Arrelious Benn stays ignored (only 10 receptions in four games this season). As for quarterback scrambles and draws, the Spartans have shut down quarterback runs--both scripted and unscripted--for the most part this season.

The running attack is slightly better than the passing game. The Illini have averaged 3.1 yards a carry in their two Big Ten games this season (disclaimer - those games were against OSU and PSU). Jason Ford, their rushing leader, racked up 137 of his 173 yards in the Eastern Illinois game. Their second leading rusher will be on the bench, for he is Juice Williams. The one running back to be concerned about is Daniel Dufrene, who will either get busy livin' or get busy dyin' against Trevor Anderson and company (yup, Shawshank'd. Bonus trivia question - name the book the story was first in). Dufrene had 11 rushes for 54 yards against a good Penn State defense.

As for Michigan State, they should do exactly what they did during the first 55 minutes of the Michigan game. The Illini probably have the worst offense MSU has faced since Montana State, but with that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Illini have a couple long offensive drives, since Ohio State and Penn State have significantly better defenses than the Spartans.

ILLINOIS ON DEFENSE

Simply put, Illinois' weakness is team offenses with one vowel in their division classification. Missouri, OSU, and PSU all scored at least 30 points, while Eastern Illinois put up 17. If you're looking for a possible comparison point to how good the Illini defense might be, here's a hint: Akron, Temple, and Syracuse all allowed less points to Penn State than Illinois did. Even though Penn State did rein in the offense late in those early games...still.

Here's how the Illini have done defensively:

Team	Pass Yards	Run Yards	Total Yards	Yards Per Play
Missouri	325	117	442	6.14
Illinois State	354	44	398	5.53
Ohio State	82	236	318	5.39
Penn State	175	338	513	7.89

Missouri was unstoppable through the air, and Eastern Illinois passed because it was their only way to be effective. As for Ohio State and Penn State, the passing defense wasn't all that bad, as Penn State threw it 25 times in that game for an average of 7.0 yards per attempt. However, Penn State didn't need to pass when the running game picked up steam. Regarding Ohio State, Jim Tressel only calls passes under gunpoint.

The strategy for Michigan State is this: Use the pass to set up the run. Cousins has had little trouble with accuracy for passes under ten yards, and once the offense consistently gets at least five yards on first down (KJ's performed the math - throwing on first down is when the MSU offense is most effective), the run game should open up. I know this thought is an antithesis to one of the offense's central tenets, but Dantonio has shown he's not averse to a pass-heavy offense when Michigan State is behind.

ILLINIOIS ON SPECIAL TEAMS

The kicker for Illinois this season, Matt Eller, has been adequate, making 8 of 9 extra points and 3 of 4 field goals. However, that miss was on Eller's only attempt longer than 40 yards. Anthony Santella, the punter, hasn't shown a lot of power on his punts this season; he's averaging 38.5 yards per punt and has a long of 47 yards. The biggest threat on special teams is Arrelious Benn, who handles kick returns in addition to his receiving duties. He hasn't had a touchdown yet though, and Illinois has averaged less than 25 yards on its kick returns this season.

THE PREDICTION

I'm a little worried about this game. Illinois has played some tough opponents so far this season including two of the top three teams in the Big Ten. I'm pretty sure Illinois is better than what they've shown in their games against 1-A competition. However, Coach Zook's curious decision to bench Juice Williams leads me to one of two possible conclusions: Juice is more injured than anyone is letting on, or Zook is pressing the panic button WITH AN INTENSITY NOT SEEN BY MANKIND.

Michigan State, on the other hand, is coming off a win where the defense showed signs of life for the first time since the opener. I hope Cousins' ankle is 100%, because that 41-yard run in the Michigan game demonstrated why Cousins has the edge over Nichol - Cousins doesn't have more athletic ability, but he knows when to run and when to pass and has the ability to make the right read better than Nichol does currently. Hopefully the offensive line can help the running backs consistently get at least three yards per rush.

I feel like this is a game Michigan State should win, and very well needs to win to keep their bowl hopes alive. The Illini will look good at times, and this game is going to be closer than a lot of us would like. The Spartans will prevail though on...let's say a Cousins pass to B.J. Cunningham and a field goal.

MICHIGAN STATE 24, ILLINOIS 14

Mining the Box Score: MSU-Michigan Recap

KJ@theonlycolors — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 01:52:58 -0000

More photos » by Bill Fundaro - AP

As you may be aware, this was not the end of the play. When Mr. Caper reached the end zone, he had exceeded the collective output of Michigan's RBs in a single bound.

Browse more photos »

Box score is here.

Here's a stat for you: Through 55 minutes of football this afternoon, the Michigan State defense had held the Michigan offense to a total offensive output of 88 yards. Those 88 yards consisted of:

16 yards on 10 rushing attempts by Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor.
2 yards on 4 (nonsack) rushing attempts by Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson.
109 passing yards on 10-19 passing by Tate Forcier.
Negative 33 yards on 3 sacks.
Negative 7 yards on two miscellaneous plays (including a negative gain on a self-initiated Space Emperor rushing attempt).

(There's a missing yard there somewhere, perhaps due to rounding error. Football box scores are SO inelegant.)

Now, in the final 5 minutes of football, plus 5 untimed plays, Tate Forcier and company managed to nearly double that output, accumulating 166 yards on 3 possessions. Mr. Forcier was directly responsible for all but 1 of those yards, picking up 49 yards on 6 rushing attempts and throwing for 114 yards on 7-13 passing. The man (the 19-year old, 188-pound man) simply makes football plays when the situation calls for it.

Fortunately for us, the final play he made resulted in the ball coming to rest in Chris L. Rucker's hands. In his attempts to make things happen for the Wolverine offense, Forcier had floated a few passes on the final three drives. The MSU secondary was unable to make him pay until that final throw.

We'll wait for DrDetroit's defensive MSUFR to determine exactly what changed at the 5 minute mark of 4th quarter. (For as much as Pat Narduzzi's taken the brunt of the MSU fan base's anger over the last 3 weeks for being too stuck in his ways, I guess you have to give him credit for not falling back into a prevent defense. Straight 4-3 all the way. For whatever reason, it just didn't work.) But even taking into account Michigan's total offensive output for the day, you get numbers that look very encouraging relative to MSU's previous defensive efforts:

The table is courtesy of Doc Saturday (who shows one more sack than the official box score--presumably a QB run for a negative gain.). The Doctor:

But the Spartan defense deserves more credit than just bringing in the game-icing pick after falling apart at the end of regulation. Even if you weren't entirely sold on the Wolverines' September drive into the polls, you couldn't have guessed their return to earth would look like this. Seven first downs and negative rushing yards prior to the game-tying drive? One yard per carry by the No. 8 rushing offense in the country, against a defense that had been ripped for at least 400 yards and 29 points in three consecutive losses? Maybe you could see Michigan State winning -- the Spartans were slight favorites, weirdly -- but it was supposed to be by virtue of the emerging passing game, not by putting the Big Ten's top scoring offense in a strait jacket for the vast majority of the game.

The MSU defense racked up 10.0 tackles for losses in this game--5.5 of them by (7 different) defensive linemen. There's your stat of the game.

Things didn't exactly go to plan on the other side of the ball, either. The leading Spartan rusher/receiver was . . . a quarterback who played most of the game on a bad ankle (and didn't play much of the second half and OT). Kirk Cousins rushed for 95 yards on 5 (nonsack) attempts. Sadly, his longest gain of the day, 41 yards, was more or less wasted when MSU couldn't convert on 4th-and-4 in the 4th quarter, preceding the Forcier-led comeback. (Going for it was the right call IMO: MSU was kicking into the wind. I saw Brett Swenson make a 50+ yard attempt in halftime warmups, but it had a very low trajectory. A blocked FG is definitely not what you want at that point.)

For a guy with the rep of being a quick-release passer, Cousins held on to the ball a lot today. That led to some good things: the rushing yards and some big conversions on 3rd-and-long. But it also led to some bad things: 2 sack and the 2 interceptions (edit: "plus a lost fumble"), both of which resulted from a defender hitting Cousins' throwing arm.

Overall, the offensive play calling was on the conservative side--as if the coaching staff had built the game plan on the assumption they'd be playing in 3 hours of steady rain and didn't want to deviate from the plan. (As it turns out, fate did its best to smile on us and it rained mainly when Michigan had the ball late, not that it seemed to slow them down.) Larry Caper and Glenn Winston totaled 37 rushing attempts for a pedestrian 88 yards. (Well, the final 23 of those 88 yards weren't pedestrian). The two quarterbacks, meanwhile, attempted only 29 combined passes. Only two of those passing attempts resulted in gains longer than 20 yards--the longest being 27 yards to B.J. Cunningham. There wasn't much picking-on-the-non-Warren-CB action.

In the final analysis, all's well that ends well. And this one ended VERY well. Back-to-back wins against our friends from Ann Arbor for the first time since the LBJ administration. And a major leap forward defensively to build on going forward.

Other nuggets:

Keith Nichol was solid when he was called upon: 5-8 for 68 yards. The offense operated more seamlessly today when the QBs rotated in and out (presumably by necessity due to Cousins' ankle injury).
Aaron Bates matched the mighty Zoltan Mesko, as both averaged exactly 43.0 yards per punt. And Bates dropped 2 of his 3 punts inside the 20-yard line.
Eric Gordon: 8 tackes, 5 of them solo and 1.5 of them for a loss, and a forced fumble. All was as DrDetroit foresaw.
Greg Jones also posted 8 tackles (and recovered the fumble), but missed at least a few plays in the second half. Anyone know the story on that?
Almost a 2-1 edge in time of possession for MSU (39:46-20:14). Bizarre. And glorious.

P.S. With the prognosis for our football season being upgraded from "critical" to "serious but stable," the moving-on-to-basketball vibe should dissipate a bit. Nevertheless: We're just 13 days removed from the opening of hoops practice! Midnight Madness is Friday, October 16. Doors open at 9:30; the proceedings begin at 10:30. Special bonus proceeding this year: A Final Four banner will be hoisted. (The guys were presented with their Big Ten championship rings during the football game today.)

P.P.S. Speaking of basketball, do you remember when Tom Izzo addressed the Izzone a few years back and told them to knock off the R-rated stuff? Mark Dantonio needs to do the same thing with the football student section. (Issuing a press release doesn't do the job.) My 5-year old son went to the game with my wife and me and today. It was one thing to have to put up with the Michigan fan behind us who couldn't comment on any development in the game without using a profane descriptor. It'll be another thing when, at some point, he realizes 20,000 students at a research university are yelling, "First Down, B****!" 20 times per game. Beyond making the stadium a more hostile place for children, the whole thing certainly doesn't do anything to dispel the couch-burning, Appalachian-State-shirt-wearing, couldn't-get-into-Michigan stereotype of the MSU student body that circulates in many places. Personally, I'd much rather be known for traditions of the "It's a beeeeautiful day for football" and "See their team is WEEEEAKening" variety.

File Under "Discrepant Statistics"

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:00:17 -0000

Michigan State University leads the Big Ten in total offense:

TOTAL OFFENSE            G  Rush Pass Plays Yards Avg/P TD Yds/G
----------------------------------------------------------------
1. Michigan State......  4   471 1283   264  1754   6.6 16 438.5
2. Wisconsin...........  4   791  921   274  1712   6.2 18 428.0
3. Michigan............  4   961  728   279  1689   6.1 19 422.2
4. Purdue..............  4   706  978   273  1684   6.2 17 421.0
5. Northwestern........  4   522 1145   295  1667   5.7 16 416.8
6. Indiana.............  4   637  956   277  1593   5.8 11 398.2
7. Penn State..........  4   509  990   270  1499   5.6 13 374.8
8. Ohio State..........  4   724  744   256  1468   5.7 12 367.0
9. Iowa................  4   574  817   274  1391   5.1 11 347.8
10.Illinois............  3   576  467   198  1043   5.3  7 347.7
11.Minnesota...........  4   423  886   250  1309   5.2 11 327.2

You have to do a lot of things wrong to turn that table into a 1-3 record. A partial list of those things follows the jump.

Ranking 10th in the league in pass defense (only 4 yards per game ahead of last-place Illinois).
Producing a turnover margin of negative 3--tied for second worst in the league. (That's entirely a function of the Wisconsin game.)
Ranking 10th in first downs allowed. ("Bend and then bend some more" defense.)
Ranking 10th in opponents' third-down conversion percentage.
Ranking last (in a tie) in opponents' fourth-down conversion percentage (4/5=80%).
Ranking 11th in time of possession.
Ranking 3rd in most penalty yards perpetrated (although that's actually been offset by ranking first in opponents' penalty yards).
Ranking 10th in kickoff coverage

The #1 total offense ranking has been overwhelmingly a function of the passing game. MSU ranks first in the league in passing offense--a full 35 yards per game ahead of #2 Northwestern. Meanwhile, the team ranks 10th in rushing offense, ahead of only Minnesota (and that's not a function of sacks: only 3 allowed for 17 yards to date). The passing stats are padded by the 231 passing yards the two QBs racked up after MSU had already fallen behind Wisconsin by three TDs on Saturday. But even if you take, say, the 91-yard TD to Keshawn Martin out of the equation, MSU would still rank first in the league in pass offense and in the middle of the league in total offense.

(Note regarding the passing game: Let's not overlook the plays our receivers made on Saturday. Imagine what the final score of the game would have looked like if Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham hadn't made those TD catches in tight coverage.)

(Additional sidenote: I suppose it make sense that ranking first in the Big Ten in passing offense wouldn't get you anywhere this season. After all, the key conference win thus far this season was posted by a team whose quarterback threw for 135 yards and 2 INTs.)

Looking ahead to the Michigan game, our hopes can only rest with the offense. The defense has now allowed at least 29 points and over 400 total yards to three consecutive opponents of the good-but-not-exactly-national-championship-contender quality. It's unlikely things suddenly gel the week before we play the most exotic offense we've seen yet. (The Forcier injury may help some--but it also means you have to be that much more prepared for a Denard Robinson-led run-heavy scheme.)

The good news is that Michigan's defense has only been a notch less horrid than ours has. They've actually allowed more total yardage than MSU--albeit in a more balanced manner, ranking 8th in the league in both pass defense and run defense. Offsetting the yardage numbers, they've been significantly better in the red zone defense and turnover creation departments.

If ever the term "must-win game" applied, it applies this week. A loss to our recently basement-dwelling in-state rivals wouldn't just hurt from an emotional standpoint. It would also mean that 5 wins in 7 games would be needed just to get to (maybe-)bowl-eligible status.

Let's hope our redshirt sophomore quarterback (and captain) and his ten colleagues on offense are up to the challenge.

(Prediction/hope: Mark Dantonio continues to pay lip service to the two-QB system, just to throw a mild wrinkle in Michigan's defensive game planning. But Kirk Cousins plays every series on Saturday. Please? If we lose this game, then I'm fine with rotating QBs every other quarter/series/play for the remainder of the schedule.)

Preview: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin

LVS — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 18:09:00 -0000

Thanks for one good memory, JLS.

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the WISCONSIN BADGERS
CAMP RANDALL STADIUM, MADISON, WISCONSIN
NOON, ESPN
WEATHER: 67 DEGREES, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN

Before the season, most observers expected for MSU to struggle offensively, but make up for with defense. Of course, after the last two weeks, that seems like a big lololololololololol, as our defense has put us in a position where we basically have to outscore the opponent. Against two of the better offenses we'll see all season, we failed barely -- but certainly miserably -- to do that. And so here we are, stuck with essentially the worst case scenario: 1-2, with our only win against an FCS team, heading into Camp Randall (where we haven't won since 2001) to play 3-0 Wisconsin. If last week was a big game, this one is now even bigger and more important, as we've obviously done an awful job of padding our record in the OOC schedule, and now have to salvage our season in conference play. Ending the losing streak and getting off on the right foot is incredibly, incredibly important.

But hey, it's cool. We're going to win.

First, let's talk about Wisconsin for a minute. Their three wins have been:

An 8-point home win against a middle-of-the-pack MAC team, Northern Illinois. (I'll admit that this win looks at least a little bit better after NIU took down a corpse-like Purdue team last week.)
A double overtime, 3-point win at home against Fresno State, a team which doesn't exactly play to the level of the David Carr-era vintage any longer.
A blowout against Wofford, an FCS team.

For one thing, I'm completely certain that MSU would have an identical 3-0 record against those teams at this point. Second, if past performance is any indication, Wisconsin's early-season success isn't necessarily going to roll right into the conference season. Remember, they went 3-0 OOC in 2008 before starting 0-4 in Big Ten play. So, anyway, while 3-0 vs. 1-2 certainly impacts upon the general mental state of both teams, I'm equally certain that they tell us very little about which team has been playing better. Furthermore, everything that's written henceforth about Wisconsin comes with the "their OOC schedule is garbage" caveat. Anyway . . .

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: Prior to the season, most would have expected Dustin Sherer to start for the Badgers; however, Scott Tolzien won the starting job during the offseason and, by in large, has looked quite good through the first three games. (Sherer is currently third on the depth chart. Bret Bielema: crazy, or crazy like a fox?) Tolzien is currently completing around 70% of his passes:

Rating	Att	Comp	Comp %	TDs	INTs	Long	Yds	YPG
161.83	47	68	69.1	4	2	80	641	213.7

Those numbers include a 281 yard performance against NIU. At the risk of looking through the stereotype lens, it appears that Tolzien is another reasonably-effective game manager, in the mold of every Wisconsin quarterback since, like, ever. Nonetheless, this will be the biggest start of his nascent career; if we can pressure him a bit, that should go a long way toward being successful tomorrow. We were a little better in that regard against Notre Dame; if anything, Wisconsin should be even more reliant than the Irish on 4-and-5 step drops, so the opportunity is there.

Furthermore, as you might have read yesterday, B5Q thinks that we could see a bit of Curt Phillips at quarterback for the Badgers:

But Bielema insists he will use quarterback Curt Phillips if the flow of the game calls for it. Phillips can run – he led the team with 92 rushing yards last week – and if Michigan State has been struggling against spread offenses and wildcat formations, you will probably see the UW offense mix it up a little bit with Phillips at quarterback.

At receiver, the Badgers look a bit like Central Michigan: they feature one big possession-type receiver (Nick Toon) and one little speedburner, presumably from the slot (Isaac Anderson). Toon, whose dad is former Jets wideout Al Toon, is the Badgers' leading receiver with 15 catches for 191 yards and 1 touchdown. However, he doesn't exactly seem like a big-play threat: he's averaging only a shade over 12 yards per catch, and his longest play this year was a 22-yarder. I'd expect for Ross Weaver, who's the bigger and more physical of our corners, to be matched up with Toon most of the game. Anderson, conversely, is the gamebreaker: he has only 7 catches on the season, but those catches have gone for 170 yards (24.3 yards per catch!), including an 80-yard touchdown against NIU.

As you'd might expect, the Badgers heavily involve their tight end in the passing game: Garrett Graham has 11 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. It's sort of been lost in the shuffle how Kyle Rudolph did a ton of damage against us last week, with 6 catches for 95 yards. We can't afford for Graham to replicate those numbers this week.

Lets' imagine for a minute, that everything before the 4th quarter of last year's Wisconsin game actually happened. (This might be painful.) Probably the single defining characteristic of those three quarters (and the first part of the fourth) was our complete inability to stop Wisconsin's ground game: P.J. Hill ran 20 times for 106 yards, but the contributions of then-freshman John Clay were more devastating: 14 carries for 111 yards and a touchdown, and that doesn't include a big touchdown run in the 4th quarter that was called back for holding. (Yes, Badger fans, it was a hold.) P.J. Hill declared "for the NFL" (ha!) but Clay is back -- sort of. He lost the starting job in training camp, then won it back with a 143-yard performance against Fresno State, and then took that opportunity and fumbled it away -- literally -- by coughing the ball up three times against Wofford last week. Clay's replacement, Zach Brown, also fumbled once. Nonetheless, I'm sure Bielema remembers our struggles against Clay last year; I have to believe that he'll be the primary Badger back tomorrow. Clay was highly recruited from high school; he's big (a Caulcrick-like 250 pounds) fast, and tough. Our rush defense wasn't terrible against Notre Dame last week, but an even bigger effort this week certainly wouldn't hurt.

As for our personnel: after being posterized (is this a word in football?) two weeks in a row, Chris L. Rucker, mercifully, won't be getting the start this week; Kendell Davis-Clark is your second cornerback. I like this move both for motivational purposes, and also because something really needed to be done. KDC has been fairly good over the past few years; normally I'd say that there'll be very little drop-off, but there's not too much further down we can go compared to the past two weeks. As far as I know, Trenton Robinson will still start over Danny Fortener.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: Wisconsin's secondary was supposed to be good:

Wisconsin's secondary will be the strength of their defense, returning three out of the four starters including junior cornerback Niles Brinkley (5-10, 180), who had a team-high five interceptions last year, and hard-hitting junior safety Jay Valai (5-9, 200) was a second-team All-Big Ten selection after recording 56 tackles and forcing three fumbles in 2008.

But, happily enough, they kinda, you know, suck!

The cornerbacks look awful. Surprisingly, the front seven looks great and free safety Chris Maragos has been all over the field. Unfortunately he can’t cover three wide receivers at one time and apparently UW’s cornerbacks don’t even have the ability to cover one receiver at a time. Sophomore Aaron Henry, who was supposed to be the conference’s best corner, looks confused out there and Antonio Fenelus, Niles Brinkley and Devin Smith couldn’t cover a 90 year-old man playing wideout. If defensive ends O’Brien Schofield and J.J. Watt don’t have career days, Cousins might throw for four touchdowns.

Fresno State passed for 289 yards against the Badgers, and everything I've read suggests that it may have looked even worse than the statistics indicate. Wisconsin's Scout site suggests that the Badger secondary needs this game for "redemption." I strongly doubt that Kirk Cousins will allow that to happen. One caveat: Wisconsin, led by Schofield and Watt, has been fairly effective in rushing the quarterback so far. They have seven sacks this season; our pass blocking this year has been quite good, but the offensive line will be tested.

As I've said previously, for me, the biggest positive about last week's game was the re-emergence of Mark Dell. If he can keep playing well, I don't think anyone in the conference has a better wide receiver corps than Blair White, Dell, and B.J. Cunningham. Given Wisconsin's difficulties defending the pass against lesser opponents, I think we're going to put up a ton of yards through the air.

The Badgers have also looked somewhat vulnerable against the run: they've allowed 493 yards (and a fairly middling 3.8 ypc) and 4 touchdowns over the first three games. Wisconsin's defensive line doesn't have an Erasmus James-type run swallower this year, but, as always, they're big and physical: DT Jeff Stehle, for instance, is 6'6", 310. Larry Caper's effort against ND probably moved our rushing game off run support; this isn't a great Wisconsin rush defense, but clearly the run game is playing second fiddle in our offense. I'd expect our rush output to be around 125-ish; if we go well above that, we're almost certainly winning. Garrett Celek is back in the lineup for MSU this week; he's good in the passing game, but even more importantly, he's probably the best-blocking tight end we have. It also appears that Nitchman might be able to go, which would be another big boost for the line and the rushing game.

FINAL PREDICTION: I feel very, very good about this game. Wisconsin has looked meh against meh competition, we're desperate, and I like everything I've heard from the team this week. More importantly, I think the Badgers are just a good matchup for our team: I think our passing game is clearly better than their pass defense, and I don't think their passing game is nearly as prepared to take advantage of our glaring weaknesses in the secondary. This game may be frustrating at times, because Wisconsin is going to be able to gain first downs on the ground, but I can't see them landing the knockout blow -- and I certainly can see us doing it. Wisconsin's good at home, but we were oh-so-close to winning there two years ago. This year, we won't fall short. MSU 34, Wisconsin 27.

Odds and Ends, Notre Dame edition

LVS — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 12:01:21 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

3 months ago: Michigan State wide receiver Blair White, left, catches a pass for a touchdown over Notre Dame cornerback Darrin Walls during the second half of an NCAA college football game in South Bend, Ind., Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. Notre Dame defeated Michigan State 33-30. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Browse more photos »

Well, that one hurt. We’re now 1-2, and now have to enter the conference season having realized our realistic worst-case out-of-conference scenario. We’re a recovered onsides kick and a corner endzone non-overthrow from 3-0, but, damn, that doesn’t make it feel any better, does it?

In my gut, I’m not all that upset about Saturday, which I cannot understand. It’s three days later, and I *think* that I should still be having nasty flashbacks of a blown interception on defense, an interception on offense which was nearly incomprehensible given the context, a kick bouncing off the right upright, and nearly a million other things which could have gone right and didn’t – and that’s all notwithstanding an indefensible quarterback rotation, and, equally stupidly, sending a linebacker to cover the country’s best wide receiver.

CPT Hoolie and Dr. Detroit have already outlined many of our problems on defense. At the moment, I’m not on board with the Fire Narduzzi sentiment, though I should say that I tend to have an overwhelmingly visceral reaction to those sorts of things, especially this early in the season. At any rate, it's inarguable that our secondary was torched for the second straight week (and for half the game, our opponent was missing its best receiver), our defensive line failed to generate enough pressure, and our linebackers looked very, very poor at times defending against ND’s wildcat formation.

And yet, I find myself returning to the many positives I saw. (Survival instinct?)

Until the last two plays of the game, Kirk Cousins was great – much better than Hoyer ever was. He was making good decisions, standing tall in the pocket, displaying tremendous precision on his throws, and generally what needed to be done to win a big game on the road. I said last week that Cousins needed to be the sole quarterback for the good of the team, even though I thought his advantage vis-à-vis Nichol wasn’t enormous. Their performance is no longer remotely similar, and rotating the quarterbacks even a little bit is still bad for the team. If I see Nichol next week and Cousins isn’t on a stretcher, it won’t be difficult to find me; I’ll be the guy in the upper deck whose HEAD ASPLODED.

As if improving the team by establishing certainty wasn’t enough, the team itself is behind Cousins. Listen to the post-game show: when Blair White talks about Kirk, he’s broken up for him, but it doesn’t seem to me that his confidence in our quarterback (yes, singular) has been shaken one bit. Cousins fell a bit short in his first opportunity to do something truly memorable as a Spartan, but what he does on Saturday should tell us a whole lot about what the next two-plus Spartan football seasons will look like. I’m very, very confident that he’s going to have his best game yet on Saturday.
. . . and that will be due in no small part to our wide receivers. The most encouraging thing from Saturday has to be the play of Mark Dell; it’s like he was never injured and his no-show games never happened. He’s the home run guy that we’ve missed, but he also caught the ball, a minor prerequisite with which he’s certainly struggled in the past. He’s still big enough to put out wide, and fast enough to put in the slot, and presents matchup problems for nearly every team we play henceforth. Similarly, B.J. Cunningham got open and caught the ball (including at least one catch of the spectacular variety), and White was flawless, as usual.

This all sort of begs the question: was Cousins that much better this week, or were good passes simply not dropped this time around? Some combination of both, clearly, but who cares? If those four guys – plus our tight ends – play like that, running game or not, very few teams are going to stop us.
The offensive line was very good in pass protection all day, especially given how Notre Dame was blitzing two of every three downs. We allowed no sacks, and Cousins and Nichol both had time to stay in the pocket and MAKE PLAYS. (Of course, one of those times which one of our linemen was beaten – and on Cousins’ blind side, unfortunately – was the last play of the game.) Still, in terms of pass blocking, we’re quite a bit ahead of where I thought we were going to be, and that’s crucial if we’re to gain yards through the air against physical Wisconsin and Michigan defenses.
One of my big concerns from last week, kickoffs, improved markedly. Swenson kicked this week, and did a much better job of getting them deep. If I remember correctly, all but one of the kickoffs was fielded inside the 10, and nearly all were inside the 5. More importantly, after the Irish returned our first kickoff to the 45, the next four times we kicked off ND started their drives at the 24, the 30, the 17, and the 27. That’s progress.

Essentially, with Dell, White and Cunningham playing at a high level, I think we’re a team which can score enough points to keep us in almost any game. And, after listening to post-game interviews and reading post-mortem stories I do get the strong sense that the team is banding together, not splitting apart, so I strongly, strongly doubt that a JLS-esque team meltdown is in the cards.

Last season, Iowa turned their season around with an emphatic win against Wisconsin. Unlike Iowa, we’ll have to do it at Camp Randall – but I have a very strong we’re going to do it nonetheless.