SB Nation - C.J. Bacher

Cats Gettin Paid

Rodger Sherman — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 22:04:02 -0000

More photos » by Patrick Semansky - AP

Five Saints, one Tyrell Sutton.

So, the way this works is that this week, I'm just continuing my really random posting schedule, but next week is Auburn week. It'll be good.

As for today, t's time for a roundup of professional football playing ex-NU students, and how they're faring so far this fall. All 15 or less of them. And only 13 weeks into the regular season!

And no, I couldn't come up with a better title. Plus, a google search reveals the phrase "Cats gettin paid" was said by Akrobatik in this song featuring Little Brother, and if you don't know about Little Brother, well, hear about them. I'm not sure how combining two great lyricists with one of the best producers in the game doesn't create mainstream waves, but The Listening and The Minstrel Show are top ten albums of the decade in my opinion, just sayin'.

So yeah, Cats gettin paid.

Let's start out with the people in the NFL: 14 ex-Cats are being payed by NFL teams to play football. Of these, two are on their respective teams' active rosters but have not yet played, and two are on practice squads, leaving ten players who have played downs in the NFL this year.

I'ma make you hit the jump for it, though:

Luis Castillo is probably the most prominent NU grad in the NFL, having signed a $43 million dollar contract in the offseason. As you probably know, Luis is San Diego's starting right defensive end, but he's had a pretty off year - in the first 10 games of the year, he had 20 tackles and only two sacks, which seems kinda low, don't it? - and then a calf injury in week 11 has had him out since and he's doubtful right about now. Also, he still has the same name as a baseball player.
Barry Cofield as he has been for the past few years, is the Giants left defensive tackle, and one of NU's vastly important Super Bowl champs. The Giant's defense has fallen off a cliff this year and the team has lost five of seven, but it's not Barry's fault. (And if it is Barry's fault... well, wow, he's pretty bad. But it probably isn't.) In fact, reading briefly about what the Giants blog on this here SBN has said about him, he's been doing pretty decent.
Nick Roach has had a pretty decent sized role for the Bears this year, since Brian Urlacher had a season-ending injury way back in week one. Roach has been starting all over, including a few games at middle linebacker, which is a pretty hard position to randomly move into, and has since swapped out to strong-side linebacker, where he's been great from what I read. He's 3rd on the team with 61 tackles and in a 30-6 win against Cleveland, forced to fumbles. So that's aight.
Trai Essex, NU's other active Super Bowl Champ, has started every gosh-darned game of the season at right guard for the Steelers. Yeah. Oh yeah.
Kevin Bentley, everybody's favorite linebacker for the Houston Texans (depending on your feelings on DeMeco Ryans), is a linebacker for the Houston Texans. He don't start, but he ain't doing too bad. In other "me potentially making things up" news, I thought I remembered seeing him recover a fumble and being like "hey, he went to NU!" but a quick check of the actual stats shows that this never happened. Sippinonpurple.com: where my journalism professors' fears of blogs killing real journalism come true!
Ike Ndukwe got traded from the Miami Dolphins to Kansas City right before the season started. Although initially super excited to go from a potentially decent team in a crappy city like Miami to a terrible one in a gorgeous metropolis like Kansas City, Ike saw he might not get any playing time. Then KC's starting right tackle got injured, and Ike started the first three games of the year, earning the love and friendship of many Kansas City natives. He's back on the bench now, though. You might think this is all totally boring, but it somehow started a 44-comment thread over at the Chief's SBN site.
Zach Streif totally started a game at left tackle for the Saints. I remember this, because they were playing the Jets, and I was watching because I'm a Jets fan, and I got really happy when I saw his name and "Northwestern" on the starting lineups, and then got really sad when I saw him celebrating in the end zone against my team. I may or may not hold a grudge. Anyway, he's played in every game this year, but is still generally a backup behind ex-Towson Tiger Jermon Bushrod, whose apparent only goal in life is proving that the Tigers' 47-14 loss to Northwestern earlier this year was a fluke, considering which school produced the more prodigious New Orleans Saint left tackle.
Tyrell Sutton is a player I pay special attention to, because he's the only person to fall into the middle of the Venn diagram for "Players in the National Football League" and "People Rodger Sherman has had a class with." He was signed by the Packers out of training camp, but they cut him, which turned out to be a smart decision, because injuries and a terrible-to-begin-with running back corps has forced the Pack to give heavy reps to the exhumed corpse of Ahman Green, and if he gets hurt, I hear their GM has Samkon Gado on speed dial. (The Ahman Green part wasn't a joke. He's playing for them. It's 2009.) Anyways, Tyrell caught on with the Carolina Panthers, where he was a fourth-string running back for a long time, but when fullbacks Brad Hoover and Tony Fiametta both got simultaneously injured, that guy who was supposedly undersized to be a Big Ten running back had to see playing time as an NFL fullback, getting three rushes for 15 yards and a catch for 11. And this past weekend against Tampa Bay, with DeAngelo Williams out, we was second-string, earning 6 carries for 38 yards, including a 20 yarder. He's generally been a kick returner - a pretty good one at that - and an occasional third-string back. I saw him get some late-game tick against the Jets a few weekends ago. Him blocking people isn't pretty, because he's like, 5'8, but I think he can stick in the league. He's clearly got the skills to elude people like he did in college, be it returning kicks or running, someone's just gotta give him a chance. For those of you intrigued, here's what he looks like in an NFL uniform - weird that they let him use the LaDanian visor, he never got one of those in college.
Jason Wright has barely played as a third-string running back for the Cardinals behind Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower- two rushes for eight yards, six catches for 38 - but two of those receptions were for touchdowns. This leads me to believe they're probably bringing him in as another blocker or random backfield body on goal line sets and every once in a while he swings out and happens to get open in the end zone. We at NU call this "The Brendan Mitchell".
Marquice Cole has caught on with my Jets. I noticed this when he had a pick in the preseason, and the announcer was like "he went to Northwestern" and I was like "word?" and then the announcer didn't say anything because he couldn't hear me. Anyway, after being cut by three teams in the offseason in the two seasons since he left NU, Cole finally caught on with the Jets after a preseason perfomance that included that pick I mentioned, as you can see here. But as you can see here, he got cut like three days later. But as you can see here, he got signed again like a week later, and has recorded six tackles on special teams. (at least I think they're on special teams. Haven't seen him on the field in actual play yet, then again, I don't get to watch every Jets game out here in Illinois.)

Now, the practice squadders, because being a technicality on an NFL roster is better than being nothing at all:

Brett Basanez, Northwestern's practice squad hero and the one person you can point to if someone ever says there are no NU QB's in the NFL, is spending his third year primarily on the practice squad of an NFL team. His first two were with the Panthers, but you can't spend three years on the same team's practice squad apparently, so he had to move on, and he did, to Chi-town. It doesn't look like he'll break the iron grip Jay Cutler has on throwing passes to Chicago's opponents anytime soon, and second-string Caleb Hanie has only thrown two passes on the season, so Basanez is deep bench.
John Gill has been rocking the Indianapolis Colts' practice squad all season long, making me wonder whether practice squads get rings.

The NFL may have a virtual monopoly on the football world, but that doesn't mean that there aren't other football leagues out there. Northwestern basically runs the UFL, after all.

Prince Kwateng was basically a star for the California Redwoods (jesus these team names are awful). The Prince picked up 20 tackles on a team coached by ex-Northwestern coach Dennis Green. The Daily covered it and stuff.
Tim McGarigle, the guy who somehow holds the NCAA record for tackles, purportedly had a great season for the Florida Tuskers (again with the names!) who went on to the UFL Championship. (then again, there were only four teams, so he had a one in two shot.) There were articles written about him and stuff.
A lot of people heard CJ Bachér was in the UFL and talked about it because the concept of your recent starting quarterback being in the UFL is inherently disappointing. What they didn't know is that Bachér didn't hang on in the UFL - after what was apparently a pick-filled preseason, Bachér got cut by the New York Sentinels, who opted to go with NFL has-beens Quinn Gray and Ingle Martin at the quarterback slot. However, this Sentinels blog (a concept even more depressing than the UFL itself) reports that Bacher got resigned towards the end of the season. Although lord knows whether or not they put the accent aigu on his jersey.
After being cut by the Browns, Noah Herron decided to play for the Sentinels about halfway through the season, and although he suffered a pretty gross injury apparently, he's doing fine. No word on whether or not he stuck out the season. The biggest thing I found searching for news on Noah on google is that he really got screwed over by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in terms of salaries last season.

And now, for my final act, I'll discuss what was in my opinion my weirdest post of the summer: this one, originally written back on my blogspot account about how three ex-NU players - David Oredugba, Demetrius Eaton, and Deante Battle were playing professional football in Finland, of all places. No updates on Oredugba - for all I know, he's still balling in Finland - but I did receive a very cryptic message from Eaton a few weeks after that post.

No hit me up, I have all the answers you need. This is Demetrius. I've been back for the last month and Deante is actually still out there and wont return until the 14th. Some bs happened out there which sent me packing. Hit me for the exclusive!

I hit Demetrius up for the exclusive, but didn't get any further information. According to this post, Battle was back in Evanston tearing up IM football, but I wasn't there to witness it.

So that's that. If you made it through this whole thing, you're a champ. I stay grinding, so, keep coming back for more.

Matchup of the Week: Northwestern Offense v. Michigan State Defense

grahamfiller10 — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 21:36:38 -0000

Two installments of MOTW's have preceded two disappointing Michigan performances. Two weeks ago, bad scheming in the secondary allowed Michigan State to drive for two early touchdowns against the porous Wolverine defense. Last week, Tate Forcier was concussed during a horrendous performance in Iowa City.

Who will be cursed by my MOTW this time? I chose to take a look at the Wildcat offensive attack and how they will scheme against an improving MSU defense. Northwestern''s schedule has been cake so far - which is why we predicted a 5-1 start.. But the 4-2 Wildcats cannot continue struggling against cupcakes ('Cuse, Miami OH, Eastern Michigan) and expect to suddenly become an improved team against the Spartans.

NW's Spread Scheme: Expectations, Results

As Chris from SmartFootball wrote on TRE last week:

SmartFootball: Well Northwestern is a true spread team and has traditionally done a nice job with all the typical short spread passes that can be completed at a high clip...

I know a lot of Northwestern fans haven't been too pleased with the team's early struggles, but Kafka's passing efficiency has to be encouraging. He is averaging over a full yard more per attempt this year than C.J. Bacher did last year (7.2 compared to 6.0).

Kafka has followed in the steps of Basanez and Bacher, completing a Big Ten leading 67% of his passes. The effective short passes have also been damaging on third down, as the Wildcats have the second most effective 3rd down % in the Big Ten. On the flip side, the shotgun draws that sprung Tyrell Sutton so many times have been flat. Northwestern is 10th in the Big Ten in rushing at a paltry 122 yards per game.

Are the Wildcats doing anything different scheme wise? Not particularly. Kafka has run more in the last two games (18 carries against Purdue,15 against Miami OH), although not with the success people may have expected. Because of his tremendous athleticism, Fitz has been attempting to unleash him via draws, option runs, or outside quarterback sweeps. The NW Spread still attacks from a 3 wide or 4 wide set and Kafka has the potential to make every throw, including:

The quick outs

The five yard sideline outs

The bread and butter crossing patterns, both short and deep

I remember Northwestern running some great wide receiver screens and halfback screens in the preceding years, but I feel like there has been less of that this year. Maybe someone can correct me or fill me in on this.

MSU Defense: Maligned Early, Repairing Image of Late

If we want to talk about improved defenses, let's talk about the Spartan unit under Pat Narduzzi. Narduzzi, weary of his inexperienced secondary, decided to play some soft coverage against Central Michigan and Notre Dame. This backfired tremendously, as Narduzzi failed to realize that both Dan Lefevour and Jimmy Clausen can throw six yard outs and dump downs to running backs or tight ends. Let me give you the play by play on the game winning CMU drive:

D. LeFevour passed to P. Cotton to the left for 9 yard gain
D. LeFevour passed to A. Brown to the left for 5 yard gain
D. LeFevour passed to A. Brown to the left for 8 yard gain

The Spartans cornerbacks began the play 5-7 yards off the LOS and retreated more when the ball was snapped. Needless to say, the underneath routes were open.

After a 1-3 start in which the defense allowed 29, 33, and 38 yards, Narduzzi finally rolled up his cornerbacks and decided to take away bubble screens and quick throws. It worked - Forcier and Williams/McGee were both forced to throw deeper into coverage. Jerel Worthy (a probable Freshman All-American selection at DT) began destroying offensive lineman, using a great swim move and some quick feet to help stuff the run games of both Michigan and Illini. The front four, passionless early, came around in a big way in Champaign-Urbana, sacking the Illini quarterbacks six times last week.

The Spartan 4-3 with soft zone coverage was a bad scheme. The Spartan 4-3 with rolled up corners and imaginative blitzes is a better defense.

What Can We Expect Saturday?

We predicted a 6-6 Northwestern team this year. Their schedule is so charmin' soft, I felt this was an insult from TRE. It looks like we were somewhat on target, but why?

LTP pointed out that NW seems to lack the killer instinct that separated the Wildcats from mediocre teams in 2008. Most of you didn't watch the Miami OH game last week, but that game exhibited a penalty laden NW squad that got pushed around by the worst in the nation RedHawks. Kafka threw high all day in good, non windy conditions, while the run game was hampered by bad blocking.

Here is my advice for Fitzgerald's game planning:

- Run early and if it fails, abandon it. CMU and Michigan couldn't run on the Spartans, thanks to the solid LB core led by Greg Jones. But when teams turn to throwing against the Spartans, things usually open up.

- Tell Kafka to get rid of the damn ball. His fumbles have come at the most inopportune times and he's been sacked second most in the Big Ten.

- Figure out early if Michigan State has rolled up cornerbacks onto the LOS. If they haven't, pound that short out and force them up.

Sparty, backed by a 14 point Vegas line and a rowdy crowd of 70k, is the obvious favorite. But Narduzzi and Dantonio must show a willingness to continue forcing quarterbacks to throw over linebackers and cornerbacks, instead of falling back into the soft zone. Michigan State has faced two ridiculously accurate quarterbacks and Kafka will be no different.

SmartFootball on TRE, Part 2: Purdue Fumbles, Ralph Bolden, Changing the Spread

grahamfiller10 — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 12:00:41 -0000

Chris from SmartFootball answered some pressing Big Ten questions yesterday. He returns today with a focus on his boys, the Purdue Boilermakers. Again, a huge thanks to this excellent football mind for coming on TRE.

on TRE...

TRE: How has the Purdue offense, which has gained more yards and created more big plays than we at TRE expected, varied from the past Joe Tiller teams?

SF: Well many Purdue fans would refuse to answer this question on principle, as it's tough to point to positives when you're 1-4, though I'll try. The most obvious difference from the Joe Tiller offense (really, in later years, the Ed Zaunbrecher offense) and what Danny Hope and coordinator Gary Nord are doing is the increased use of traditional sets, primarily the I-formation with a true tight-end and fullback. Joe Tiller's original offense that he installed with Jim Chaney, now offensive coordinator at the University of Tennessee, was a "one-back" offense in the most literal sense: they had no two-back sets. This made sense for the time as the offense derived from Dennis Erickson's one-back attack that he had used in the pros and at Miami, and that Tiller learned at another of Erickson's stops, Washington State. The offense evolved a bit in Tiller's later years under coordinator Ed Zaunbrecher, formerly of Marshall, Florida, and Illinois, but it retained the same core structure.

It did not feature much if any of the "power" stuff that Nord has installed. Specifically, Purdue's offense previously was centered on the following: the run game was almost exclusively zone running based, including the inside zone and the outside zone, and the passing game was almost all straight-dropback passes. By contrast the current Purdue offense uses a ton of the "power" play - where the line "down-blocks," the fullback blocks the defensive end from inside to out, and the backside guard pulls and leads -- along with the toss-sweep and other base runs of the like. And the passing game has focused less on the true three-step and five-step dropback passing game that Purdue made famous, and more on passes outside of the pocket, like waggles (drop straight back then roll out), sprint outs (immediately roll-out), and bootlegs.

Extra halfbacks are for sissies...

On the whole I think these changes are positive because the offense needed diversity in both areas. The run game had become predictable, and the downfield passing game, which so often would shred inferior competition, would become completely stymied against good teams because (a) they could man up on all of Purdue's receivers, and (b) via the four down linemen and various blitz schemes, they could take target practice on Purdue's quarterback. The more diverse run game and the wider variety of dropback actions put the defense a little bit more on their heals. If I had an analogy for Purdue's current offense, I would actually pick maybe the Southern Cal offense of the last few years. Obviously Purdue lacks the kind of big play potential that unit has had over the years.

TRE: What was your biggest issue with Purdue's play calling Saturday?

SF: When your team turns it over six times, you're going to lose, whether you're running the wishbone or the spread, or your playcaller is Gary Nord or Bill Walsh. I personally didn't mind the aggressiveness at the end of the half (many of the turnovers occurred within the last two minutes of the half, and Purdue went from leading 21-3 to 21-16), but I suppose sometimes there is merit in just going to halftime with a lead.

The question then is whether turnovers are coachable? This is a more difficult question than initially appears. Purdue has been near the bottom of the country (rank in the bottom 10-15 teams) in turnover margin all season, and that was before the disastrous Northwestern game. But a lot of studies have shown that fumbling at least is a fairly random occurrence. As current Lions head coach Jim Schwartz (who has an econ degree from Georgetown) explained:

"Fumbles are a random occurrence," Schwartz said he told Belichick. "Being able to get interceptions or not throw interceptions has a high correlation with good teams. But over the course of a year, good teams don't fumble any more or less than bad teams. Bill didn't agree. He said, ‘No, good teams don't fumble the ball.' But actually, they fumble just as often as bad teams."

Similarly Phil Steele bases a lot of his bounce-back picks based on whose record seemed unduly bad because of turnovers - and he has a very good track record. More recently, Bill Connelly of Rock M Nation and Football Outsiders took a good look at the whole turnover phenomenon. He was able to assign a point value to turnovers - i.e. where on the field did they occur - based on the idea that not only are turnovers (fairly) arbitrary, but where they happen is even more arbitrary and can have a huge effect on the game. (Indeed, many Purdue fans have noted how it seems all the turnovers this year have come at particularly backbreaking.)

The upshot is that these numbers tend to make princes of frogs in some years and frogs out of princes, but over time they even out. As a guy who hopes Purdue has brighter days ahead than its 1-4 record indicates, this is appealing to me, and both Steele and Connelly have shown pretty demonstrably that this stuff does even out over time.

But if you look at the list of turnover margin you do tend to see a lot of teams that are sort of supposed to be there: Virginia Tech and Southern Cal near the top (and USC's yearly random upset loss almost always comes in a game where they are -2 or -3 in turnover margin), while teams like SMU and North Texas populate the bottom. So coaching can't be irrelevant, can it?

My sense is that interceptions are more coachable than fumbles, both for offenses and defenses. A Mike Martz sling-it team will throw more interceptions, and zone defense-based teams tend to intercept more passes because they have eleven defenders watching the ball, which is not the case with man-to-man. But what of Purdue, turnover machine? All I can say is that they are dead last in the Big 10 in turnover margin, and their number is more than double the next to last team. (Incidentally, that team is Michigan State, which last year had a great year by having a positive turnover margin, whereas this year has been disappointing, in many ways directly attributable to their now negative turnover margin.) And if Purdue wants to win any games - and if the new coaching staff wants to stick around while - they will have to get better in this area, either by coaching it better or getting luckier.

As with most fanbases, Purdue fans look at results. Like elected officials, coaches are not evaluated based on stochastic possibilities or counterfactuals. [ed note: Stochastic means random and non-determinative behavior...duh]

TRE: Is there a player on Purdue that you love watching for whatever reasons, someone who gives you hope for the following couple season?

SF: I think it's pretty obvious that the only player right now that can inspire any serious fear among other Big 10 teams is running back Ralph Bolden, who is currently ranked second in the Big 10 in rushing yards per game. He is only a sophomore, and has clearly been the highlight of the year for Purdue. That said, his production has trailed off recently, partially because he looks a bit dinged up due to the wear and tear and also because other teams are keying on him quite heavily. Charlie Weis basically announced that if Notre Dame stopped him they would win, and if they didn't they could very well lose. It was a bit more complicated than that but he was proven right.

SmartFootball On TRE, Part 1: Spreads, Bubble Screens, Juice Williams

grahamfiller10 — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 11:30:15 -0000

Chris from SmartFootball helps us all fulfill our deep yearning to understand what the hell just happened while we're watching college football. He also contributes to Yahoo!/Rivals and The New York Times' The Fifth Down. Although a fan of Purdue, he is doing his best here to be neutral, for what it's worth. A huge thanks to Chris for his excellent analysis and his willingness to pay attention to a 1-4 Boilermaker team.

on TRE...

TRE: Pulling a "Juice Williams" will, for the next 5 years, mean underperforming contrary to everyone's (including Phil Steele's) expectations. What has been the key to Ron Zook not unlocking Juice's potential? And what is the challenge of taking an outstanding athlete and attempting to turn them into a quarterback who needs to make reads and be a field leader? (Ed Note: And how ironic is this - on the day Rashard Menhall blows up for 170 yards and two TD's against the Chargers, Juice is demoted for Eddie McGee)

SF: To use Orson Swindle's moniker, how [COACH REDACTED] could push (transform? Keep? Stagnate? Manipulate?] Juice Williams into a [QUARTERBACK REDACTED] is a bit beyond me. Based on last year's stats, I too thought Williams would at least keep improving in the sense that he could put up some numbers, though he still might turn it over too much. Indeed, it looked like he had more weapons than he had the year before with the addition of the highly touted Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Instead Arrelious Benn averages 13.8 yards receiving per game (Georgia's A.J. Green averages 17.57 yards per catch), and the offense has taken an enormous step backward.

JUICE NOOOOOOO

So while it is obviously challenging to turn an athlete into a quarterback and a leader, it seemed like Juice had already started to do that by being far and away the Big 10's yardage leader last year. But in general the problems are like you'd expect: working on the details of quarterbacking. Working with a great athlete presents unique problems because you don't necessarily name the guy your starter because he shows an aptitude for the traditional quarterback metrics, and sometimes you find out that a guy can't develop them. There's nothing inherently wrong with choosing a guy for that reason - remember, Juice was the Illini's leading rusher last year, and is second on the team this season. Yet when a guy without those athletic skills makes a mistake with basic quarterbacking he just makes a mistake; a guy who is also a great athlete may build bad habits by relying on that athleticism. Or simply his athleticism might hide his bad habits; consider Vince Young's transition to the pros. Developing a quarterback is always a crap shoot, but the Juice Williams saga has been a particularly strange one. In any event, this year for Illinois looks very bleak, and next year both [COACH] and [QUARTERBACK REDACTED] will be gone.

TRE: When Michigan played Michigan State the other day, Michigan State ran the following wide receiver screen three times from this formation:

Trips Right, Quick pass to Y, Z blocks down on the hybrid defender, X blocks the Michigan cornerback, Y easily picks up 8-12 yards before finally being tackled or pushed out of bounds by the LB.

Here are my questions: After the first time MSU ran this, shouldn't Michigan have altered their defense? What's the proper way to defend this screen?

SF: I'll begin with a quote from Brian Cook of MGo:

"[Michigan defensive coordinator Greg] Robinson's madden[ing] inability to adjust to the bubble screens was, uh, maddening. I'm at a loss to see how Michigan can't even throw it anymore but Michigan State can just line up in a twins set and have it open time after time. What happened to the defense we saw against Minnesota last year when Morgan Trent actually arrived before the ball on one?"

I'm not really sure why they couldn't defend it. And the biggest answer for defending the bubble screen is to have bodies to defend it. This is the fundamental chess match of the spread: they have enough constraint plays like the bubbles to force the defense to spread with the offense, thus simplifying the numbers game for them. If you don't adjust, you are basically giving up free plays. The fact that Michigan seemed unable to defend this considering their own offense is a spread team is, to use Brian's phrase, "maddening." There can be a bit more to it but on a very basic level is it math: three receivers and two defenders equals two blockers and a guy with a lot of running room, while three receivers and three defenders equals an unblocked defender who can make the tackle. Without video I can't give too much more insight there.

TRE: Northwestern has a bunch of two and three star players at its skill positions, but every year they manage to complete passes at an unusually high percentage. This year is no different, as Mike Kafka completed 63% against Purdue and 70% on the season. Did you see anything during the Purdue game that gives clues to this success?

SmartFootball: Well Northwestern is a true spread team and has traditionally done a nice job with all the typical short spread passes that can be completed at a high clip. Despite being having a lineage of being spread, they have had a lot of turnover at their offensive coordinator spot, as current OC Mick McCall has only been there two years. He was a veteran of Bowling Green where he coached under Gregg Brandon, who took over for Urban Meyer when he left. They put up impressive numbers there, especially with QBs Josh Harris and Omar Jacobs. I know a lot of Northwestern fans haven't been too pleased with the team's early struggles, but Kafka's passing efficiency has to be encouraging. He is averaging over a full yard more per attempt this year than C.J. Bacher did last year (7.2 compared to 6.0).

The biggest problem for Northwestern - and certainly so against Purdue - has been their red zone conversion percentage. They have only turned 54.55% of their red zone appearances into touchdowns, which puts them ninth in the Big 10 and 80th in the country in that stat.

Stay tuned tomorrow for Part 2 with SmartFootball, where Chris shows why Purdue should be 5-0. Just kidding, he'll discuss the changing offense in West Lafayette and why there is hope for the future.

Get To Know Northwestern

Sean Keeley — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 18:20:46 -0000

More photos » by Stephen J. Carrera - AP

4 months ago: In this Nov. 1, 2008, photo Northwestern quarterback Mike Kafka (13) moves the ball against Minnesota during an NCAA college football game Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Northwestern University, Stephen J. Carrera)

Browse more photos »

Last year I traded Q&As with Lake The Posts, the premminent Northwestern blog in all of the land. It was so much fan we decided to do it again. (Jealous?)

Read on below to find out more about these Northwestern Wildcats, what they're all about what we can expect from them on Saturday. And be sure to keep an eye on Lake The Posts over the next few days for updates.

Eastern Michigan, huh? Explain thyself.

Hmmm...not sure there is an explanation. Some things in the universe lack explanation - BUT, I'll try. Here's the concise thought: The 'Cats lack killer instinct. We were dominating up 21-0 and in full control. We had 3 TOs including two within our 30 (one at the 11). More importantly for the 2nd straight week we looked lackluster after halftime. Complacency was obvious. There is absolutely zero home field advantage as we make your attendance look enviable and the flat atmosphere was mirrored by the on-field play. The most scary part was EMU ran it right down our throats. Our D-line wouldn't have stopped a Pop Warner team. If I were Marrone, I'd run it for the first 20 plays right up the gut.

What's the big difference that Syracuse can expect from Northwestern this year from last?

Great question. We don't know what we have. NU fans are very frustrated that we've been keeping our play-calling so close to the vest. We need to have Kafka open it up on the run game as he's so good at it. The biggest difference is the names at WR. The offense has looked solid, which was the big question mark - but again, consider the opponents (Towson, EMU). Our "D" looks horrible and we (and Fitz) have been talkinga about this "D" being the best and possibly better than the '95 team that led the nation in scoring defense.

Last year it was Tyrell Sutton and C.J. Bacher lighting up the Orange. Who's going to try and emulate that this season?

Kafka is a very solid QB. I hope we take the schackles off this week. Our RB game is suspect at best. Keep an eye on Andrew Brewer, our primary WR. We had high hopes for Jeremy Ebert who was great as a frosh, but he's been getting little playing time. Demetrius Fields has showed promise at WR.

You guys started last season 5-0 and ended up 9-4, losing a heartbreaker in the Alamodome. How do you look back on the season? How does this team stack up?

We look back at it as a great season. We had one bad loss - at Indiana, which is inexcusable and the next notch for us to get to the next level - we can't lose any games like that we're supposed to win. Yes, we had a soft non-conference schedule (sorry!), but we played well and improved nearly each week with two exceptions. Our win over Illinois at home to end the season was an impressive showing and our Alamo Bowl near major upset gave everyone high hopes -specifically on D - for this season. Again, we now have no clue. Consensus is anything less than 8 wins would be a disappointment as we have a soft non-conference schedule and rotate Ohio State and Michigan off the schedule. Talk to me after Saturday and I'll tell you what we have!

Northwestern is going to beat Syracuse because...

The "D" gets its collective head out of the sand and Mike Hankwitz actually opens up the playcalling and schemes. Corey Wootton, our all-american DE finally gets comfortable (he's been non-existent) with his knee which he blew out in the Alamo Bowl and regains his terrorizing ways to free up the rest of our line. We play mistake free ball on offense and we let Kafka open up the playbook and let him run, which is the key to making our spread work. Our special teams coverage on kicks actually makes an opponent start consistently at their 20. The line continues to slide in the Orange's favor and NU assumes its more favorable role of underdog.

Syracuse is going to beat Northwestern because...

The 'Cats D-line and secondary play like they did last week, which means "not well". Doug Marrone takes a play out of the Ron English playbook and runs off-tackle rushes for 20 straight plays in the 3rd quarter and the 'Cuse leverage Greg Paulus' winning instinct to pull out a win. Mike Williams runs amok and takes advantage of our star CB's injured wheel (Sherrick McManis). The 'Cuse continually take kickoff returns after FGs out to the 45. Marrone adjusts and continues to outscheme NU's coaching staff which has been out play called, and outplayed in the second half.

How many Northwestern fans can we expect in the Dome this weekend?

500. Tops. Despite the relatively huge alumni base in NY/Fairfield County, the trek to Syracuse is enough of a barrier for folks to not travel. Considering our current home attendance is dreadful, I highly doubt a strong travel game. Sad, but true.

Mizzou 2009, Part One: Blaine Gabbert and the Four-Year Precedent - Why establishing expectations is so difficult

RPT — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:00:10 -0000

More photos » by L.G. Patterson - AP

Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert scrambles for yardage during the spring Black and Gold college football scrimmage on Saturday, April 18, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

Browse more photos »

By this point, Missouri fans know all the questions around the conference. Is Kansas the most talented team in the North and, if so, will the schedule still prevent them from winning the division? Is Nebraska officially "back" enough to take the division despite trips to Columbia and Lawrence? Is this the year Colorado finally justifies a slew of "sleeper picks" from assorted media?

Within the confines of the Missouri program, there are multiple questions, to be sure. How will the offense and defense perform under new coordinators? What kind of depth can Missouri develop on the defensive line? Does the pass defense have anywhere to go but up?

But there's simply no avoiding THE question, and that question comes in the form of the 6-5, 240-pound righty wearing No. 11 behind center: How exactly will Blaine Gabbert perform for the Missouri Tigers in 2009? That question spawns another question, however. What is a fair expectation for Gabbert in 2009?

And, thus, the impossibility of determining the parameters of statistical success begins.

Now, I don't aim to (nor could I) infringe upon the statistical sovereignty of The Boy Bill C., but for months, I'd been wanting to look at the first year numbers of quarterbacks in similar situations. What follows the jump is a year-by-year breakdown of the last four seasons, looking at underclassmen in their first years of starting for teams coming off of a season in which they were ranked OR at least received votes in the final AP poll, as well as what their performances may mean for Gabbert in 2009.

2008
(click to enlarge)

2008 fails to provide a compelling comparative paradigm for Gabbert. It's somewhat hard to believe, but Marc Verica ends up as the gunslinger of the group in terms of attempts, finishing with the highest completion percentage but also an unsightly 1:2 TD:INT ratio. The two crown jewels of this group, Terrelle Pryor and Jeremiah Masoli, can attribute a decent portion of their successes to unique skill sets, skill sets not likely to be seen from Gabbert unless Yost begins calling the zone read 35 times a game. It's here where we begin to see why style of play is the lurking variable in this equation. This exception also applies to Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan, whom I lumped into a collective vortex of mediocrity in the first year of the Rich Rod regime. The interesting cases here are Jarrett Lee and Mike Hartline. They had the collective misfortune of stepping under center following two extremely successful predecessors in Matt Flynn and Andre Woodson. Lee, in addition to throwing six pick-sixes amongst his 16 INTs, accounted for 22 percent less yardage than Flynn. Hartline's struggles to replace Woodson's 3700+ yards and 40 TDs resulted in more playing time for Randall Cobb.

2007
(click to enlarge)

Talk about a small sample size. Raise your hand if you were expecting comparisons between Gabbert and Chris Turner and Sean Canfield. As a sophomore, Turner (and his awesome blond afro) supplanted Jordan Steffy as the starter for the Terps for the last eight games of the season. Yes, Gabbert is expected to lean heavily upon Derrick Washington and DeVion Moore, but in 2007, Turner's job was to defer to seniors Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball to the tune of 32 carries a game. Canfield's numbers are slightly skewed by a late-season injury, as well as Oregon State's 55-45 run-pass numbers in 2007. Yost has indicated throughout the offseason that he'd love to get Missouri closer to a 50-50 split, but it's hard to imagine MU keeping the ball on the ground 55 percent of the time. And then there's Sam Bradford, the football equivalent of the guy who always ruined the curve in all your classes. Don't get me wrong, I'd love nothing more than to have Gabbert put up Bradford-esque numbers, but placing an expectation of a 4:1 TD:INT ratio and a Big 12 title is almost the QB equivalent of Coulter-level hype.

2006
(click to enlarge)

OK, remember what I said about Bradford ruining the curve? I take it back. Look at the yearly comparison. Graham Harrell alone might have been enough skew the numbers (after all, the attempts -- usually in the 280 range -- spiked to 373), but throw in great debuts for Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy and an under-appreciated season from Nate Longshore and the numbers jump. Instead of settling near the 3:2 TD:INT ratio for the four-year average, this rather prodigious group edged closer to 2:1. Here is where we start to get a better window for comparison. Gabbert is indelibly linked to Daniel, but is the average Missouri fan expecting him to approach the numbers reached by Daniel in 2006? It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but he also inherits a cupboard that (although not bare) isn't nearly as stacked as Daniel's was. With the Big 12 skewing the averages, the completion percentage, yards/attempt, and TD:INT ratio start to seem fair given Gabbert's situation in 2009.

2005
(click to enlarge)

If you bow at the throne of Rivals rankings, allow me to cite chapter 2005. In the previous three years covered, only one five-star underclassman (Matthew Stafford in 2006) had seen significant starting time for a team coming off of a season in which the program received Top 25 votes. The 2005 sample includes two five-stars in Kyle Wright and Rhett Bomar. For all the grief Wright got during his tenure at Miami, it all started relatively well in 2005. The 18 TDs would be a career high for Wright. Meanwhile, Bomar used his time off from Big Red Sports/Imports to put together a slightly less impressive debut. Granted, Oklahoma ran the ball on 59 percent of plays in 2005 thanks to the tandem of Adrian Peterson and Kejuan Jones, keeping his numbers (and his importance to that offense) relatively low.

What does it all mean?
(click to enlarge per game averages)

So, what does it all mean? Very little. The numbers show that the majority of underclassman starters even at recently successful programs A) are going to be relatively protected, B) will be hard pressed to have the astronomical TD:INT ratios we're used to, and C) can't really provide us with a perfect mold to place around Gabbert. According to the numbers, the average line of the first-year underclassman starter ends up being 15-for-25 for 182 yards with a touchdown and a pick. More Derrick Washington or less Derrick Washington, it's difficult to envision Gabbert only putting the ball up 25 times a game. In the 2006 analysis, I said those numbers start to look fair for Gabbert: 60 percent completion, 7.3 yards per attempt, and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. Presuming Gabbert hovers around the 35 attempt average, that puts his nightly projections around 21-for-35 for 255 yards, and hopefully not worse than 2 TDs/1 INT.

Of course, in the end, gaudy stats don't necessarily mean success (see: Juice Williams' 451 yards and 4 TD against Missouri last season). But as much as I can dance around applying finite expectations to Gabbert (and trust me, NO ONE loves ignoring stats for gut feelings more than me), if it's time to start applying digits to Gabbert's debut season as starter, this seems like as good a launching point for discussion as any.

Poll

Ignoring wins as the obvious indicator of success, on a per game average, is the proposed stat line (21/35, 255 yards, 2-4 TD, 1-2 INT) a fair expectation of success for Blaine Gabbert?

No, that expects too much of him

28 votes

Yes, seems about right

150 votes

No, expectations should be higher

28 votes

206 votes | Poll has closed

Is Your Coach a System Guy or a Personnel Guy?

Law Buckeye — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 20:18:27 -0000

In case you've actually been doing work in your cube and missed it, today is Spread Day on ESPN. The network army of conference bloggers coordinated interviews with offensive and defensive coordinators in the business of running or defending CFB's sexiest formation.

Notice I said formation. One of the nice things the series does is clear up a few misconceptions -- like, for one, the idea that the spread is a passing scheme. (As Virginia coach Al Groh points out, Missouri finished fourth in the nation in passing, while Oregon finished fourth in the nation in running in 2008. Both ran the spread).

But the thing I found interesting is somewhat unrelated to the grand inquisition. ESPN's Pac-10 blogger Ted Miller observed that "[o]ne of the reasons Arizona offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes is about to become a hot head-coaching candidate is that he's not a system guy. He's a personnel guy. He figures out what he has. Then he figures out how to use them."

This got me thinking: is your head coach a maverick or a chameleon?

Here's how I'd break down the Big Ten:

Joe Paterno (Chameleon): From two back to two-thousand and nine's advent of the Spread HD, Paterno has consistently given his coordinators the freedom to shake it up. Has it worked? You bet. Since turning 79, Joe Pa's .791 winning percentage bests his career metrics.

Jim Tressel (Hybrid): From I-Form (2002-2004), to 5-wide (2006), and back (2007-2008) Mr. Sweater Vest wore more heart on his sleeve than he let on. But he's still Jimmy T: 1st down dive, 2nd down dive, 3rd down off-tackle. Punt. Play for field position.

Rich Rodriguez (Maverick): At WVU Rich Rod transformed the fun-and-gun to fun-and-run. In a formation previously used to pass, Rich spread things out, just to make it easier to run it down your throat. Yet, when inheriting a Wolverine squad prone to two-wide sets, Rich refused to compromise. Hence, 2008.

Pat Fitzgerald (Chameleon): Since inheriting Randy Walker's vaulted spread attack, Pat has diversified his portfolio alternating between C.J. Bacher's arm, and Mike Kafka's legs.

Danny Hope (Hybrid): Hope did things his way at Eastern Kentucky, but, after apprenticing under Joe T for a year, expect to see him incorporate a few classic Tiller tricks.

Bill Lynch (Chameleon): Before Kellen Lewis got kicked off the team, he was part of a mass re-distribution scheme designed to better line talent up on both sides of the ball.

Ron Zook (Maverick): Zook could get so much more out of his talent, if he were more willing to diversify his repertoire.

Mark Dantonio (Maverick): Stack the box, move the line. Scowl when things don't go according to plan.

Tim Brewster (Maverick): NFL guys are system guys. Brewster is no different.

Bret Bielema (Maverick): Even Ohio State has opened things up. Wisconsin respectfully declines.

Kirk Ferentz (Chameleon): From Brad Banks to Shonn Greene Ferentz knows when to open up and when to buckle down.

A way too early look at the 2009 Schedule - Week 4 - Northwestern

JG2112 — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 15:00:19 -0000

Northwestern, at a glance:

Location: Evanston, Illinois
Stadium: Ryan Field (size: 41, 130)
Expected Attendance: about 20,000, especially if the Cubs and White Sox are in the playoff chase.
Undergraduate population: 8,000 (by far the smallest in the Big Ten + 1).
First season: 1876
Number of Big Ten Titles: 7
All-time record: 458-600-44 (average season record for Northwestern: 3.4 wins - 4.5 losses).
All-time bowl record: 1-7 (let's remember that 7 of those bowl games have been since 1996 - all losses. The only victory was the 1949 Rose Bowl, 20-14 over week three opponent California).

Who is the preeminent Northwestern alum: Charlton Heston, Ana Gasteyer, or Samantha Harris (from Dancing with the Stars)? Well, let's ask Northwestern blogger Lake The Posts:

LTP: Hmmm...I'm more of the Michael Wilbon, Stephen Colbert, Brent Musberger variety, but I'd go with Samantha Harris (from Minnesota!) simply because we lived on the same hall back in the day. She was Samantha Shapiro then, but the same nice, fun woman.

Lucky guy - Harris's shoulders (yes, her shoulders) are one reason alone to subscribe to HD service. Other not as hot or culturally relevant alumni include Rod Blagojevich, Stephen Colbert, Charlton Heston, Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens, and Adlai Stevenson.

Okay great. Why mention all these alums? Well, frankly, there's not much too sexy to look at when previewing Northwestern football this year. Yes, last year the team went 9-4. Yes, that marked the third straight year of improving records for Coach Fitzgerald. Yes, Northwestern is 24-24 in Big Ten play since 2003. However, the Wildcats lost their veteran QB C.J. Bacher, four-year starting RB Tyrell Sutton (and backup Omar Conteh), and their top four wide receiving targets. Those who attended the 2008 NW - Minnesota were wiping the drool off the side of their lip in anticipation of overtime when Brendan Smith decided to end the game by intercepting Adam Weber and returning it for a touchdown with 12 seconds remaining. Of course, this led to the question of why Tim Brewster decided to start passing with under a minute to go inside his own 20 yard line. Perhaps this was Mike Dunbar's way of thanking his former employers, which led to Minnesota's end of season meltdown, and Dunbar's ouster after the Insight Bowl loss to Kansas.

Minnesota and Northwestern are both predicted by national prognosticators to finish between sixth and ninth in the conference. In all, that ranges between 5 and 7 wins on the year. In other words, for both teams nationally, a bleh regular season followed by a possible bowl game in Detroit or Toronto.

Let's move on to a little offensive analysis:

Northwestern on Offense:

Yes, this could be a little offensive. As mentioned above, the Wildcats lose their backfield and their wide receiving corps. The team returns 4 starters from a young offensive line. Of course, Minnesota will remember the team's new QB, senior Mike Kafka, who is nominated for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award (it should be mentioned that only seniors are eligible for the trophy, that the undrafted Graham Harrell won it last year, and that Rusty Smith (Florida Atlantic), Tyler Sheehan (Bowling Green), and some dude named Tim Tebow are also nominated.

Kafka went 12-for-16 for 143 yards and 2 TDs, and rushed 27 times for 217 yards against Minnesota, in what seemed to be a year-long attempt in 2007, bowl game notwithstanding, for the Gophers to make experienced QBs look bad (see: Curtis Painter, Juice Williams, Smith, Sheehan), and backup or young QBs look like All Americans (Kafka, Nick Freaking Sheridan, Terrelle Pryor, Ricky Stanzi).

A problem for Northwestern is that it loses 81.4% of its receiving production. The top returning WRs are Andrew Brewer, Sidney Stewart, and Jeremy Ebert, and they only signed one wideout in the 2009 recruiting class (Drew Moulton from Freeland, MI). The passing game was not prevalent last year with Kafka, (though Minnesota fans probably remember Kafka's 40 yard TD to Ebert in 2008) especially once Northwestern got a lead. It may not feature much this year either.

Wait. I didn't recall Kafka passing that well against Minnesota. Lake the Posts continued to jog my memory:

TDG: How will your passing game look with Kafka? I don't recall him passing against Minnesota during his Pat White impersonation at Metrodome.

LTP: Funny...he did not throw a bunch against Minnesota, but the TD pass to Jeremy Ebert in the 1st quarter was one of the best pass-catch timing routes I've seen in years. I pointed to that play as a question mark for why we didn't throw more. Kafka is very underrated as a passer and is a good decision maker. Keep in mind he started in 2006 before getting injured and now enters his final season as one of the more experienced back-ups you could hope for. I believe Kafka's passing ability will be one of the surprise storylines of the season.

Oh yeah. Now I remember that pass.

So, if Kafka plays, I expect the Gophers to bottle up his running and shift his focus to passing. Look out, however, if he is injured and speedy backup QB Dan Persa is inserted into the lineup. Minnesota would probably then get torched in a Wildcat (get it) running formation.

Speaking of running and the line, Northwestern's men up front only allowed 22 sacks in 2008, but that was probably more a function of the spread offense, Bacher's decision making, and Kafka's scrambling ability, than quality play from the line. The line does welcome Aaron Nagel, a transfer from Notre Dame. However, the present first-team RBs, Stephen Simmons (5' 8", 175 lbs), Jeravin Matthews, a converted WR and Alex Daniel (6'0", 195 lbs) are tiny:

TDG: Tyrell Sutton has graduated, right? I recall your running back named Simmons getting tackled by Terrance Taylor in the Michigan game last year via back suplex. Ric Flair would have been happy with that effort. I don't think he weighs more than 150 pounds. Is he your running back hope for 2009, or does Kafka have to carry it again?

LTP: Good memory - yes that was not pretty. The RB slot is wide open heading into the fall with a trio of candidates - Stephen Simmons - who was the 3rd string last year but was forced to step in after both Sutton and Omar Conteh were injured - Alex Daniel, who many like as he is more of hard-hitting RB and converted WR-to-RB Jeravin Matthews who is lightning quick. I expect all three to use the non-conference as the competition for becoming the starter. Our line is solid, but this is the major point of concern. Kafka's ability to run should open things up for the RBs, but we clearly don't have the Tyrell Sutton or Jason Wright of recent years.

The "Superback" position (who would undoubtedly feel at home in Coach Brewster's "Special Forces") is a hybrid tight end/fullback (think H-backs for the Washington Redskins during the first Joe Gibbs era) and has two returning players, Drake Dunsmore and 6'6", 215 pound Josh Rooks. Despite four returning linemen and LTP's hopes, the running game will likely be average at best for Northwestern due to inexperience, and will rely heavily on Kafka's existential running. Minnesota's stable of D-linemen and strong linebackers, including Lee Campbell and Sam Maresh, should be able to stop the run.

Bottom Line - Northwestern's Offense: Northwestern's offense, while a spread offense, plays very close to the vest. Think ball-control, the limiting of turnovers, and fundamentally sound football. This is not the Mike Dunbar - era Northwestern offense. And, it should be easier for the Gophers to defend with their continual influx of talent.

Northwestern on Defense:

It's not a shock that Northwestern's strength is on defense. Coach Fitzgerald was a two-time Bednarik and Nagurski Award winner. This team is molded in his image. And no player fits the coach better than Corey Wootton. Well, pre-ACL tear Corey Wootton. Standing in my second-row seats behind the Northwestern bench, I repeatedly pointed Wootton out to my wife at the game last year. We then watched him with interest during the game and saw a star. In 2008, he had 10 sacks and 16 tackles for loss. His injury in the Alamo Bowl loss to Missouri will likely find him getting back into game shape during the early part of the 2009 season. It's probably better Minnesota encounters him in September than in November this year.

However, the rest of the defense is also solid. Northwestern returns eight starters, including two defensive linemen, two linebackers, and its entire secondary (including the aforementioned Brendan Smith). Defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz, who was hired away from Wisconsin, managed a defense which held eight teams to 20 points or fewer in 2008.

Lake The Posts opines:

TDG: What is the strength of the NW team? Can Corey Wootten win the Heisman this year with a reconstructed knee? What part of the Minnesota offense can most effectively be counteracted by the NW defense?

LTP: The strength heading into the season is clearly the "D". No, Wootten won't win the Heisman nor will any DE, but he has a chance to be a first team All-American if he fully recovers. All signs point to him returning as strong, if not stronger so hope[s] are high. That's a great question about counteracting Minnesota's offense. Considering the Gophers are transitioning and I've yet to see it, it is hard to say. You can bet any gameplan will involve containing Eric Decker.

Bottom Line - Northwestern's Defense: The Wildcat defense is solid and returns most of its core players. Minnesota will have to probe to find the right way to attack the team. A drop-back, pro-style QB probably doesn't fit right into what Northwestern is used to playing against. Use of the tight end and fullback sets will probably be necessary to get favorable match ups against a Wildcats defensive unit used to seeing a spread offense in practice every day. After a half of mixing up the attack with short passes and play action, the Gophers should spend the second half running the ball right at the defensive line, and utilize the size advantage they possess with their monstrous O-linemen.

Northwestern Recruiting?

Errr, not so much, allegedly. The national outlets ranked Northwestern 11th out of the 11 teams in the Big Ten + 1 Conference in recruiting in the 2009 class. This is worth a mention: the Northwestern Wildcats, which regularly recruits one of the "worst" classes of incoming freshmen in the Big Ten, went 9-4 last year. This makes Ron Zook, Rich Rodriguez, and yes, Tim Brewster's 2008 efforts look very poor by comparison. Northwestern, along with Iowa, probably get more out of their rosters than any other team in the Big Ten + 1.

Will we see any true freshmen on the field wearing black and purple? 6 in one....

TDG: I have read on your site and elsewhere that Coach Fitzgerald likes to redshirt most of his incoming freshmen classes. Do you think any true freshman has a chance to play for Northwestern this year? If so, which is most likely to play? And finally, if he does play, should it be because of his talent, or would it cause you concern due to lack of depth?

LTP: Let me caveat this response with the fact that my opinion is relatively baseless speculation. Incoming kicker Jeff Budzien is likely to compete as a starter as a placekicker for both the fact he is very good and also we're lacking depth there. As far as regulars, you would think incoming OL Pat Ward would be a candidate to be an instant impact player as he is our first 4-star recruit in more than half a decade. However, our line is experienced and still young (we lose only one starter AFTER this season) so my guess is he'll redshirt. However, you never know as last year I didn't expect true frosh WR Jeremy Ebert to even be the freshman at that position that would get the chance, let alone be an impact player. We have the most talented defense at Northwestern since the 1995 team so the only depth question marks are at the skill positions on offense (and a big question mark that is). In general, the talent level continues to rise as Fitz is increasing the level of target recruits and has landed more and more eary impact players. Phil Steele has this incoming class ranked 44th - not Minnesota-level hype, but definitely steps in the right direction.

Any other factors to consider? Well, Northwestern probably won't have any inherent advantage over Minnesota in playing outdoors this time around, as Minnesota now takes part in outdoor football save its appearance on 9/5 in the Carrier Dome (old habits are indeed hard to break).

Here is a little more background from our Evanston correspondent:

TDG: What are your impressions of Tim Brewster, and his coaching change to a pro-style offense? Are you surprised the Dunbar era ended so meekly and after two years?

LTP: I think Brewster has recovered nicely after being a tad too over-exuberant in his year one "we're going to be world champs" mantra. Obviously we're familiar with Dunbar (former NU OC) and I'm very surprised it didn't work out better as most NU fans thought Dunbar was solid in the spread. So, yes - very surprised. I think Minnesota is very similar to the Brett Basanez era Cats - you've had an influx of great talent mixed with guys who are solid, but not stars - who now combine to have great experience. Adam Weber has been through the wars and Eric Decker is my favorite non-NU WR in the Big Ten. Kuznia is solid (and the brother-in-law of fomer NU QB Zak Kustok who you remember threw the Hail Mary to beat the Gophers in '00) and I think is going to have a breakout year. I'm very interested to see how MN adapts to the offensive change. Massive scheme changes tend to scare me as I think there is a learning curve and I believe this is the year that MN could really strike and surprise folks. I do believe that last year's late season collapse will have most non-Gopher fans not believing until MN closes some deals in November.

TDG: What does Northwestern have to do to win this game?

LTP: Minnesota can relate to NU fans. We both look at each other on the schedule and say "that's one we should win". It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that Brewster will be likely heavily preparing to shore up the run defense against Kafka after last year's "Pat White" performance. I'm fairly certain Brewster's gameplan -at a top level- will be "make them beat us in the air". Thus, I believe we're going to have to really play mistake free passing and really utilize the many options at wideout to open things up on the ground.

TDG: How do you think this game will end up? Specifically, please predict the style of heart-breaking, last-second victory that Northwestern will impose on Minnesota in 2009.

LTP: Hmmm..considering The Daily Gopher won the weekly pick 'em contest last year I should be asking you. As you alluded to you can almost count on this being a one possession game. I have no clue who will win, but obviously think NU has a good chance to win. I simply hope we haven't cashed in all of our last second game-winning chips already!

Final Thoughts:

Minnesota is positioned as a team with upward momentum despite the end of the 2008 season. New stadium, good recruiting, new coaches, new style. Northwestern, on the other hand, may have hit a plateau with the 2008 season, though a 9-win season is a nice place from which to take a step back. Coach Fitzgerald, while Tweeting, doing a Harry Carey impersonation at Wrigley, and trying to bring ethics to Illinois politics (good luck pal), hopefully will have overlooked Gopher game prep.

We'll have an interesting indicator as to what's going to happen between these teams by the time they meet on September 26th, as both play Syracuse. Indeed, while Northwestern should be 3-0 (Towson, Eastern Michigan and Syracuse? Come on), Minnesota has a mixed bag, and could be anywhere from 3-0 to 1-2 and still be a very good team (Syracuse, Air Force, California).

Minnesota will benefit greatly from confronting Cal's incredibly difficult secondary on September 19th, which has a first-team All American and three returning starters. Cal has speed, a Heisman candidate RB, and will be a preseason top 15 team. Playing against Northwestern will not be as difficult. On the other hand, Northwestern will easily be playing their toughest game when Minnesota shows up near Lake Michigan. While there is the fear of a letdown for the Gophers, especially if they beat the Golden Bears, if the recruiting and Fisch-effect is to believed, there should be more than enough talent on the Gophers squad for them to neutralize Kafka, establish a running game, and defeat the Wildcats.

Prediction: Minnesota 28 - Northwestern 20.

Ridiculously Early Preview: Northwestern

Beauford — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 14:49:24 -0000

Well, the women's final four is finally complete, and the Masters is right around the corner which means that we've hit the 3rd and longest segment of the off season. What better time to start banging out some previews? These are all, of course, assuming that there will be nary an injury or legal problem during the summer. Also of note: These previews aren't necessarily Michigan-centric. We don't play Northwestern this year. Think of it as fan education.

via www.northbynorthwestern.com

I've always held somewhat of a soft spot for Northwestern, if only because I can't figure out for the life of me what they're doing in the Big Ten. Nothing makes sense! They're the smallest, by far, of the Big Ten schools, they're the best (probably) academic institution, and they wear purple. They are simply out gunned in football and basketball by athletic departments with far more resources and far less stringent academic policies in the Big Ten. So yeah, I had a soft spot for the little guys until they came into the Big House last year and beat Michigan on the worst day for football ever. Now? Not so much, but at least that loss yielded a picture that is awesome. You may now view its awesomeness:

via mgoblog.com

Speaking of last year, Northwestern had a great one, going 9-4 overall and posting a 5-3 conference record. For the first time in a bajillion years, Northwestern ran through their out of conference schedule unscathed, and somewhere in Illinois, a man calling himself "LTP" spontaneously combusted. It was, in all, a pretty good time to be wearing purple. Hell, they even gave Missouri a great fight in the Alamo Bowl, losing 23-30 in OT. They also had a string of very talented players who aren't wearing purple this year. Well, maybe not a string. Maybe just two: C.J. Bacher and Tyrelle Sutton. Sutton had a mostly injury plagued career at Northwestern, but still managed some impressive numbers as a four year starter:

Sutton

Year	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TDS
2005	250	1474	5.9	62	16
2006	189	1000	5.3	64	5
2007	108	522	4.8	46	4
2008	184	890	4.8	66	6

With Sutton's inability to stay uninjured (whoa - negative's ahoy!), the job of "scoring" came down to C.J. Bacher, who performed admirably, going for 19 and 17 TD's in his junior and senior seasons. Regardless, both players are gone which means, likely, another 9 wins season will be extremely difficult to achieve.

2009 Schedule

Towson

Eastern Michigan

at Syracuse

Minnesota

at Purdue

Miami (OH)

at Michigan State

Indiana

Penn State

at Iowa

at Illinois

Wisconsin

Northwestern is on that weird rotation that allows them to dodge both Ohio State and Michigan, which until recently would have been a good thing, but my guess is that they'd gladly replace Penn State or Wisconsin with Michigan at home. This is, actually, not a bad schedule to break in a new backfield with. Speaking of which, you may remember a young man named Mike Kafka getting some starts last year when Bacher was injured. He was/is a shifty type, racking up over 300 yards rushing in limited duty. Think Nick Sheridan except a quarterback.

We'll be back, hopefully, for a part II of this preview with some special guests, so keep your eyes open.

Crossfire: Northwestern Q&A

RPT — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 15:30:05 -0000

This postseason edition of Crossfire allows us the chance to welcome our new friends from Lake the Posts, a veritable one-stop shop for all things Northwestern athletics.

RMN: First of all, what's the reaction been like to Northwestern's 9-win regular season? Did Northwestern fans expect this kind of output this year?

LTP: Extremely positive as you can imagine. I was banging the 8-4 drum all summer long and fellow Big Ten bloggers thought I was delusional. When you consider the injuries we suffered - star RB Tyrell Sutton out, his back-up Omar Conteh out, CJ Bacher out for 2 games - it truly is a remarkable season. The amazing part is most felt we would do it Mizzou style by simply outscoring opponents. We have a new OC with Mick McCall (Bowling Green) and a new DC/Savior with Mike Hankwitz. The offense underdelivered and the "D" overdelivered and essentially made the season. We're just getting used to this whole pass rush concept which was a joke in previous years.

RMN: How have fans reacted to the pairing with Missouri? What's the public perception of Missouri's program right now among Northwestern circles?

LTP: A collective gulp. I'm not going to lie to you, we'd much rather be playing South Carolina in the Outback or even Florida State in the Champs than a pissed off Big 12 team that won it's division in arguably the most dominating year a conference has had in memory. Missouri is very well respected and the speed of Jeremy Maclin combined with the experience of Chase Daniel presents a major challenge. Cats fans are on a mission to erase the "1st time since..." syndrome and the last of those (aside from winning at the Shoe) is winning a bowl game. This is our 6th bowl since 1995, but our last bowl win was in 1949.

Remaining questions after the jump...

RMN: It seems like most Missouri fans know the names Bacher, Kafka, and Sutton and not much else. Who in particular do Missouri fans need to become familiar with before Dec. 29?

LTP: The headliner is DE Corey Wootton. He is a sack machine and menace to all QBs. John Gill at DT is also a stalwart while S Brad Phillips is a ferocious hitter (he's knocked two players, including Big Ten MVP Shonn Greene out of games already this year). CB Sherrick McManis gets all the hype in the secondary, while freshman CB Jordan Mabin is underrated. The LB corps is a little thin thanks to injuries and our offensive line, the big question mark of the year has been a pleasant surprise in the pass rush protection department, but below average in run blocking.

RMN: How exactly is the Bacher-Kafka used? Is it a platoon system, or is Kafka's playing time a result of injuries? How much faith do you have in both guys?

LTP: It has been 100% injury related. Bacher went down with a hammy in the final drive against Indiana. Kafka started and played the next two games, and CJ returned for the final two against Michigan and Illinois. Bacher has been plagued with inconsistency as he is prone to throw picks, but has a new attitude of "I'm putting the team on my back." You can plan on seeing a healthy mix of both - a true platoon in the Alamo - as they are such different looks it will make you prepare essentially for two separate teams. The coaches completely wrap Kafka's throwing, but he showed great promise in the Minnesota game (sans one very bad pick 6). Faith in CJ was at new lows earlier this year, but his recent moxie has lifted many to believe again. Kafka is very well liked, but the lack of passing has caused fans to become irritable on 3rd and long situations.

RMN: What are the strengths of the Northwestern defense? How do you expect them to matchup with the Missouri offense?

LTP: The strength is chemistry. We may not have the most explosive athletes, but they are playing together in a way that we haven't seen since 95 & 96. We are weak against the deep ball to the non McManis side, but are very good at coming up with the big sack and pass rush. All you need to do is watch the game tape against our one common opponent, Illinois, to see what we've become. We do give up the big play a couple of times a game, but our "D" somehow manages to always stiffen and keep teams out of the end zone.

RMN: The blueprint for beating Missouri begins by manhandling Mizzou in the trenches. What kind of success do you expect out of Northwestern's offensive and defensive lines?

LTP: I like our D-line matchup against you, but our O-line, as mentioned is not so good with the run. Perhaps it is wishful Big Ten thinking but I believe the Illini are similar in the challenges you present. A dangerous deep ball threat (from a MUCH better QB than Juice) to stellar, speedy WRs and good hands, good sized TEs. I expect us to really be aggressive and create havoc for Chase, but I'm fearful of the deep ball to Jeremy Maclin. You know it's coming, but can we stop it. Yikes.

Thanks to LTP for the info. Our response to LTP's line of questioning can be found here. Make sure to head over to LTP to interact if you have any questions about NU football, and welcome those NU fans who find their way here to Rock M Nation.