SB Nation - Sherrick McManis

Gearing up for the Northwestern Wildcats!

Acid Reign — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 07:25:00 -0000

This highlight clip comes directly to you from the Northwestern Athletic Department. What a refreshingly modern approach to video! (As opposed to the SEC's antique model...)

War Eagle, everybody! It's time now for a look at Auburn's 2010 Outback opponent, the Northwestern Wildcats. Trying to imagine what will happen in this contest has NOT been easy. Auburn and Northwestern have never played each other in football. There are NO common opponents on the two teams' schedules. Both teams feature wide-open offenses that try to push the tempo. Auburn's spread attack has been more run oriented. Northwestern, without a feature back, has aired it out more. Both teams have tended to favor the 4-man rush on defense, and zone coverage. Both Auburn and Northwestern have had up and down periods, losing games they shouldn't have, and beating ranked teams. For those who are expecting a media-bandwagon "SEC is superior to the Big 10" post in this space, you are going to be disappointed. I think bowl history in the past ten years shows the two leagues to be remarkably even.

Northwestern began the season looking like a lower echelon Big-10 team. After blowing out Towson, the Wildcats struggled to a 27-24 win over Eastern Michigan. Losses on the road to Syracuse and Minnesota followed. The Wildcats appeared to be headed for a third road loss at Purdue, trailing 21-3 in the second quarter. The Wildcat D stepped up, forcing six turnovers. Northwestern would rally to beat Purdue 27-21, salvaging the season. A defensive win over Miami of Ohio followed, but then the Wildcats were shut down in East Lansing, falling to Michigan State 24-14. If you thought the 21-3 deficit was huge against Purdue, Northwestern fell behind 28-3 to Indiana at home. 26 unanswered points provided a miraculous 29-28 win over the Hoosiers. Northwestern appeared to be on the way to a major upset hosting Penn State. The Wildcats led 13-10 at the half, but quarterback Mike Kafka was hurt, the dam broke in the 4^th quarter, and Penn State won going away, 34-13. With a 5-4 record, and games left against Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, it looked like Northwestern was in dire trouble. In Iowa City, quarterback Mike Kafka was limited with a leg injury, and gave way to backup Dan Persa. Then Persa hurt his hand. Kafka limped back on the field, and led Northwestern to a stunning 17-10 upset of the BCS-bound Hawkeyes. In Campaign Illinois, again with Kafka hobbling, the Wildcats downed Illinois 21-16. A huge underdog in their home finale against Wisconsin, Northwestern led much of the day, behind a 326-yard passing effort by Kafka. In the end, it was the Wildcat defense turning the Badgers away again and again. Northwestern won it, 33-31. The Wildcats finished 8-4, 5-3 in the Big Ten.

Offensively, the Wildcats try to run a balanced spread attack. This year, with a young offensive line and a variety of backs, rushing totals have been down. Fireplug freshman Arby Fields is the team's leading rusher, with 294 yards. Quarterback Mike Kafka is close behind with 265. Many of the big Wildcat rushing plays have been on quarterback scrambles, which happens to be one of Auburn's defensive weaknesses. The Tigers have been plagued all year by 3^rd and long plays in which the quarterback pops through the middle for big yards. Auburn will have to contain Kafka, who should be 100% healthy after battling leg ailments in the latter half of the regular season. Northwestern's passing attack is dangerous, if Kafka gets time to throw. Senior H-back Zeke Markshausen has caught a whopping 79 passes, and lanky senior wideout Andrew Brewer has added 49 more. Five Northwestern receivers have at least 23 or more catches, and 8 receivers have ten or more catches. The Wildcats are averaging 266 passing yards per game, and 386 total yards per game. By comparison, Auburn is averaging 214 rushing, and 219 passing, for 433 total yards per game.

Defensively, Northwestern has a stout front seven that has weathered brutal Big-10 trench warfare well. A banged up patchwork Wildcat secondary has managed 15 interceptions. The bad news for Auburn is that all 4 starters should be healthy for the Outback Bowl. Lockdown senior corner Sherrick McManis has 4 interceptions and 7 pass breakups, and I'd expect to see him matched up on Auburn's Darvin Adams for much of the morning. Auburn's Chris Todd will have to be careful airing the ball out, as Northwestern's defensive backs all seem to play the ball well. Where Northwestern has had problems is against pounding running games, and against screens. On the line, the Wildcats look to senior defensive end Corey Wootton. Wootton suffered a major knee injury in last year's Alamo Bowl, and has battled a high ankle sprain all year. Despite that, he's still managed 6 tackles for loss and 4 quarterback hurries. All in all, a pretty salty Wildcat defense has tallied 62 tackles for loss and 27 sacks. By comparison, Auburn has 71 TFLs and 25 sacks. Defensively Northwestern gives up 344 yards and 23.3 points per game. Auburn gives up 354 yards per game and 26.9 points per game.

On special teams, Auburn has a few advantages, although a couple of glaring holes remain. Auburn has yet to locate a punt returner who doesn't drop the ball. While this has yet to cost the Tigers meaningful points off a turnover, it has seriously impacted field position. Auburn also has a porous kick coverage unit. Northwestern covers kicks and punts pretty decently, but their returns are only average. Auburn has struggled punting the football with only a 35.4 yard net, but Northwestern is worse, managing only 31.7. Both teams have good placekickers. Auburn's Wes Byrum only missed one field goal all year. Northwestern junior Stefan Demos has hit 18 of 23.

Unit matchups, after the jump!

Auburn defensive line vs. Northwestern offensive line: Auburn enters this bowl with a veteran line anchored by senior All-SEC defensive end Antonio Coleman, who led the SEC in sacks despite ligament damage in his arm. Northwestern is young on the offensive line. The veteran is junior guard Keegan Grant. There are three sophomores: center Ben Burkett, guard Doug Bartels, and left tackle Al Netter. Right tackle Neal Deiters is a redshirt freshman. Auburn has a pair of bullrushing tackles in Jake Ricks and Mike Blanc. And Auburn can bring Nick Fairley off the bench for a breather. Coleman against Netter is a good matchup to watch, but a better matchup will be on the other side, where junior Antoine Carter takes on a freshman tackle. Carter spent the early part of the year injured, but came on against Ole Miss and beyond. The combination gives Auburn speed rushers on both edges, and creates protection problems. Auburn's biggest problem on the D-line has been quarterback contain, and the Wildcats have the guy to exploit it in Mike Kafka. On the other hand, Northwestern has given up 29 sacks. Auburn has 25 on the season. Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn linebackers vs. Northwestern runners: Auburn has absolutely been ravaged by injury in the linebacker corps. Juniors Josh Bynes and Craig Stevens have had to play every snap in most games, and have had difficulty holding up as Auburn played 11 games in a row without a break. After a week off, the pair STONED Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, holding the Tide great to 30 yards. Weakside linebacker has been a rotating cast. Sophomore Eltoro Freeman is perhaps Auburn's most talented linebacker, but injuries have held him back. He's trying to recover in time for the Outback Bowl, and is practicing. The only other scholarship linebacker available is true freshman Jonathan Evans. Northwestern runs the ball by committee. Quarterback Mike Kafka seems like the biggest threat, running the zone read with aplomb. The likely bowl starter at running back will be sophomore Scott Concannon, who averaged 3.6 yards per carry on the season. Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn corners vs. Northwestern receivers: Auburn's Walter McFadden, a senior, will likely spend the day matched up with Northwestern's Andrew Brewer. McFadden has handled a number of dangerous SEC wide receivers well, good for 4 interceptions and 8 pass breakups. Where Auburn may struggle is on the other side. Sophomore Neiko Thorpe has been suspect from time to time, although he does have 1 interception and 8 pass breakups. The battle between Thorpe and Northwestern junior Sidney Stewart will be interesting to watch. Both are tall and athletic. Advantage: Even.

Auburn safeties vs. Northwestern secondary receivers and quarterback: Auburn will need SERIOUS help here from the linebackers and corners. The Tigers start true freshman Darrin Bates at one safety, and sophomore JUCO Demond Washington at the other side. Washington has only started 3 games. Both guys have lots of speed and are hitters, but are short on experience. Redshirt freshman T'Sharvan Bell is first in off the bench in nickel situations. Northwestern has OPTIONS in the slot. As mentioned above, Zeke Markshausen is a mainstay. The Wildcats can go heavy with "superback" sophomore Drake Dunsmore, a 235-pounder with 38 catches. Northwestern is particularly good at running "clear-outs," where the corners are pinched in on slants and posts, and the slot guys go out and up. Quarterback Mike Kafka has the arm to make all of the throws. Huge Advantage: Northwestern.

Punting: Auburn senior Clinton Durst dropped two yards in his punting average this year, finishing at 40.7. In Durst's defense, special teams coordinator Jay Boulware has revealed upon occasion that Durst was instructed to kick the ball out of bounds rather than test our suspect coverage unit. Junior Stefan Demos has struggled likewise for Northwestern, averaging only 35.3 yards per punt. Coverage for the Wildcats has been shaky, giving up 9.9 yards per return. Auburn's been downright bad on coverage, giving up 13.8 yards. Northwestern's 6.6 yard per punt return average won't impress anyone. Auburn has gone through a merry-go-round of return men, and has probably dropped a dozen punts on the ground over the course of the season. The Tigers' 4.5 yard punt return average is among the worst in the nation. It's been a miracle that the punt teams' woes haven't resulted in a loss. This may be the game! Advantage: Northwestern.

Kickoffs: Auburn is slightly better on kickoff distance, averaging 62.0 yards to Northwestern's 59.9. Auburn coverage has been worse, giving up 23.6 yards per return, to Northwestern's 21.1. Auburn has kicked 5 balls out of bounds, to Northwestern's 1. Lately, we've cheered kickoffs out of bounds, because the other team usually does BETTER than the 40 on returns! Northwestern averages 20.4 yards on returns. Auburn averages 23.6. The thing to note about the Tiger kick return game is that they discovered sophomore Demond Washington's talents late. Washington wasn't used on returns till late in the season, and he's averaging 32.2 yards per return. Slight Advantage: Auburn.

Placekicking: Auburn junior Wes Byrum has had a nearly flawless season, hitting on all of his 49 extra points, and 14 out of 15 field goals. Northwestern's Stefan Demos has a good year, too. Demos has hit on 31 of 32 extra point attempts, and 18 of 23 field goal attempts. Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn offensive line vs. Northwestern defensive line: This is a strength vs. strength matchup. The Tiger line has held its own all year, and was only really beaten against Georgia and LSU. Auburn placed junior left tackle Lee Ziemba and junior center Ryan Pugh on some second-team All-SEC units. Auburn runs an array of traps, draws, and misdirection plays. Pulling guards Mike Berry and Byron Issom have been used almost like fullbacks, and have been very effective blocking on the corner. Despite playing in a spread offense, the Tigers have only given up 18 sacks this season. Where Auburn is weakest is handling the speed rush at right tackle. Senior Andrew McCain is a solid run blocker, but has trouble with speed off the edge. I look for Northwestern to at times move senior defensive end Corey Wootton to the right to try and get a mismatch. Wootton vs. Ziemba should be a good battle. Wootton vs. McCain worries me. Wootton is big, at 280, and fast. Wootton isn't the only capable lineman Northwestern has. Junior tackle Corbin Bryant and senior Adam Hahn are solid. Sophomore defensive end Vince Browne is tied for the lead on the team with 4 sacks. There is Wildcat depth in front four, too. Slight Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn backs vs. Northwestern linebackers: Auburn's backs have done well most of the year, and should benefit from weeks of rest. Running back Ben Tate made second-team All-SEC. H-back Mario Fannin was a blocking force and caught 39 balls. Backup H-back Eric Smith is a threat, too. Freshman tailback Onterrio McCalebb is a speed-demon. He's been battling ankle injuries in the last 8 weeks of the season, but should be healthy for the bowl. Juniors Nate Williams and Quentin Davie anchor the Wildcat defense. The pair combined for 160 tackles, including 14 for loss. Davie has been dangerous as a pass rusher too, with 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hurries, and 4 forced fumbles. These are prototypical Big 10-sized linebackers at around 235-240, and they won't be bowled over easily! Advantage: Even.

Auburn receivers vs. Northwestern corners: For the Tigers, this is the Darvin Adams show. Left out of All-SEC balloting, Adams finished in the top five in the league in every category, including a spiffy 17.8 yards per catch average. Terrell Zachary holds down the number two spot, and is a threat on the end around. Zachary only has 24 catches on the year, but is averaging 19.4 yards per reception. Northwestern will counter with senior Sherrick McManus and sophomore Jordan Mabin. Mabin has only two passes defended on the season in 12 games, so look for Auburn to try to test him. Advantage: Auburn.

Auburn secondary receivers and quarterback vs. Northwestern safeties: Auburn will go with senior quarterback Chris Todd and a battle tested bunch. Blocking tight end Tommy Trott has been off and on as a receiver, and Chris Todd has struggled to get him the ball late in the season. The main receiving threat of the secondary receivers is Mario Fannin. That bubble screen to Fannin is probably our single most popular pass play, and I look for Northwestern to have the short zone dialed up for that. With a pair of seniors deep for Northwestern, Auburn may have trouble in the middle. Brad Phillips and Brendan Smith are solid, and sophomore Brian Peters are all among the leaders on the team in tackles. Advantage: Northwestern.

Auburn is not going to wow anyone on special teams, but they MUST minimize mistakes! When Northwestern has the ball, Auburn must really run to contain Kafka and the spread. If Auburn loses the battle at the line of scrimmage, it will be a long day of chasing Wildcat receivers. When Auburn has the ball, they have to continue to be multiple. If the Tigers have to rely on either the run or the pass too much, Northwestern has the scheme and players to shut it down. Chris Todd needs to have an accurate game in his Auburn finale, for the Tigers to win.

Prediction: With an El Nino pattern firmly in place, the gulf coast is seeing wave after wave of low pressure systems, mixed with waves of cold air from the northwest. It's been one of the wettest years on record, in the Southeast. Expect rain, for this year's Outback Bowl. Both teams will struggle with the conditions, and Auburn's running game is the difference in this one. Auburn wins, 27-20.

All-Big Ten Awards Announced, Swept Once Again By Toto

Oops Pow Surprise — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:00:45 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

about 1 month ago: Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in Iowa City, Iowa. Northwestern won 17-10. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Good news, everyone!* The Big Ten announced its picks for the all-conference teams. Naturally, the offensive and defensive player of the year are both Terrelle Pryor. Okay, not true; he's not even honorable mention.

But there's plenty of actual good news. First, the devil media named Kirk Ferentz coach of the year, and here he is reminding them that they can go suck it and he hasn't forgiven them for the slights of the regular season.

Such language, Kirk!

As for the players, here's the link to the voting results. The media named Bryan Bulaga to the first team on offense, while the second team featured four of his friends from the line: Rafael Eubanks, Dace Richardson, Kyle Calloway, and Tony Moeaki.

On defense, the first team had a little more Iowa representation; Adrian Clayborn, Pat Angerer, and Tyler Sash all received their no-brainer merits. On the second team, Brett Greenwood and Amari Spievey. Iowa put eight players on the media's honorable mention team: Ryan Donahue, Broderick Binns, A.J. Edds, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Karl Klug, Daniel Murray, Adam Robinson, and Ricky Stanzi.

Not surprisingly, the coaches had a slightly higher opinion of the Hawkeyes; here's the link to their voting results. Bryan Bulaga was named their offensive lineman of the year(!!!), an award the media doesn't give out. Bulaga is joined on the first team by Moeaki and Richardson, both of which are worthy selections. Calloway and Eubanks didn't make the second team--not sure why on Calloway--but Derrell Johnson-Koulianos snuck in on a three-player tie for second-team WR.

On defense, the coaches agreed with the media in putting Sash, Clayborn, and Angerer on the first team roster. They also added Amari Spievey; as coaches, they're more likely to know that the reason Spievey didn't have a ton of picks wasn't that he's not good at football, but that there's just no hope in throwing at him; Spievey was a machine this season, and we're starting to lose hope that he's got more than one game left in an Iowa uniform. A.J. Edds is the lone Hawkeye on the defensive second team.

For honorable mention, it's as follows:Christian Ballard, Kyle Calloway, Ryan Donahue, Brent Greenwood, Karl Klug, and Adam Robinson.

Full All-BXI teams and a few thoughts are after the break.

MEDIA

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
QB	Daryll Clark, Penn State	Mike Kafka, Northwestern
RB	Evan Royster, Penn State	Brandon Saine, Ohio State
RB	JOHN CLAY, Wisconsin	Ralph Bolden, Purdue
WR	Tandon Doss, Indiana	Blair White, Michigan State
WR	Keith Smith, Purdue	Zeke Markshausen, Northwestern
C	Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State	Rafael Eubanks, Iowa
G	Justin Boren, Ohio State	Jon Asamoah, Illinois
G	John Moffitt, Wisconsin	Dace Richardson, Iowa
T	Bryan Bulaga, Iowa	Kyle Calloway, Iowa
T	Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin	Dennis Landolt, Penn State
TE	Garrett Graham, Wisconsin	Tony Moeaki, Iowa
PK	Brett Swenson, Michigan State	Stefan Demos, Northwestern

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
DL	Adrian Clayborn, Iowa	Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DL	Brandon Graham, Michigan	Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
DL	Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue	Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
DL	O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin	Jared Odrick, Penn State
LB	Pat Angerer, Iowa	Ross Homan, Ohio State
LB	GREG JONES, Michigan State	Josh Hull, Penn State
LB	Navorro Bowman, Penn State	Sean Lee, Penn State
DB	Tyler Sash, Iowa	Brent Greenwood, Iowa
DB	Donovan Warren, Michigan	Amari Spievey, Iowa
DB	Sherrick McManis, Northwestern	Brad Phillips, Northwestern
DB	Kurt Coleman, Ohio State	David Pender, Purdue
P	Zoltan Mesko, Michigan	Jeremy Boone, Penn State

COACHES

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
QB	Daryll Clark, Penn State	Mike Kafka, Northwestern
RB	Evan Royster, Penn State	Brandon Saine, Ohio State
RB	John Clay, Wisconsin	Ralph Bolden, Purdue
WR	Eric Decker, Minnesota	Tandon Doss, Indiana*
WR	Blair White, Michigan State	Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa* Keith Smith, Purdue*
C	Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State	Rafael Eubanks, Iowa* Joel Nitchman, Michigan State*
G	Dace Richardson, Iowa	Jon Asamoah, Illinois
G	John Moffitt, Wisconsin	Justin Boren, Ohio State
T	Bryan Bulaga, Iowa	Rodger Saffold, Indiana
T	Dennis Landolt, Penn State	Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
TE	Tony Moeaki, Iowa	Garrett Graham, Wisconsin
PK	Brett Swenson, Michigan	Stefan Demos, Northwestern

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
DL	Adrian Clayborn, Iowa	Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DL	Brandon Graham, Michigan	Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
DL	Jared Odrick, Penn State	Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
DL	O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin	Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
LB	Pat Angerer, Iowa Linebacker	A.J. Edds, Iowa
LB	Greg Jones, Michigan State	Ross Homan, Ohio State
LB	Navorro Bowman, Penn State	Sean Lee, Penn State
DB	Tyler Sash, Iowa	Donovan Warren, Michigan*
DB	Amari Spievey, Iowa	Sherrick McManis, Northwestern*
DB	Brad Phillips, Northwestern	Brandon King, Purdue*
DB	Kurt Coleman, Ohio State	David Pender, Purdue* Jay Valai, Wisconsin*
P	Zoltan Mesko, Michigan	Jeremy Boone, Penn State

Okay. While we're quite happy that Bulaga got such high accolades for the season, we can't be alone in thinking that he was hardly the best lineman in Iowa City, much less the Big Ten. He was either on the sidelines or out of sorts for the majority of the season, and we still haven't seen the elephant-tusk-covered road grader from last season on display. He totally would have deserved a preseason OL of the year, but his performance over 2009 didn't merit such superlatives.

This is hardly a new development from these postseason lists, however; generally, the lists are crafted off of the preseason lists, and anybody whose knee blew out with more than four games left was excised and replaced by someone else. After all, Bulaga was only a second-team All-BXI player last season, even though he was by far the best lineman on the team in 2008. Seth Olsen, meanwhile, had the good fortune to be a first-teamer to start the year, so he was on the first team after 2008, despite a relatively blah senior campaign; we'd have put him about fourth on the list of Iowa linemen for 2009, behind the two bookends at tackle and Rob Bruggeman at center.

Essentially, Bulaga won the award in 2009 for his play in 2008.

At the end of the day, this comes down to stats; there aren't any for linemen, despite the ill-fated attempt to get the "pancake" introduced about a decade ago (for this, we blame Orlando Pace). It's assumed that linemen are sure things, and that as long as they stay healthy, the narrative has stayed true. After all, without stats, most scribes have no time (or no idea) how to watch linemen individually.

Frankly, though it's a subjective stat, we'd love to see how linemen grade out per play (remember that Blake Larsen famously graded at 100% during his senior season at Atlantic; lord, had those knees survived...) Without having the means to undertake such an activity ourselves, we'd imagine that if you graded each Iowa offensive lineman, Kyle Calloway or Dace Richardson would probably be at the top.

If they're not, which is possible, then it would probably be the guy who didn't even get an honorable mention: Riley Reiff. He was stout in relief of Bulaga--hell, we're pretty sure O'Brien Schofield would not have batted Reiff around like a catnip mouse, unlike some Iowa linemen--and he basically forced his way into the starting lineup even before Big Dace went down. But since he wasn't even a projected starter, to say nothing of a preseason honoree, Reiff didn't have much of a chance for postseason mention. Shame, really; dude is legit, and he hasn't even filled out his frame yet.

As for the skill players, it's a little disappointing that Stanzi only made one honorable mention team. But we get how that can happen. Spievey only making second team in the media is flatly ridiculous. If he'd put together that same season in an Ohio State uniform, he'd be getting All-American talk.

Other than that, we don't have a ton of beef; Stanzi killed himself by leading the conference in interceptions when he went down to injury, and the rest of the offensive skill players were far too inconsistent or hurt to merit much consideration. Jeremiha Hunter not getting any honorable mention love is a little disconcerting, but the BXI was lo-ho-hoaded at linebacker this season; we're not quite sure whom we'd place him above. He'll get some love in 2010 if he stays healthy. Also--given the play of Jeff Tarpinian in relief--if Hunter stays healthy between now and next September, there's no position battle at weakside backer next season, right?

So, all in all, a fair list, even if the voting on offensive linemen is basically a year behind schedule. It's a year behind for everyone else, after all. Anybody else that you folks think got shafted? Did Marvin McNutt deserve a nod, or is he still a year away from recognition?

*/Farnsworth'd

Fifth Quarter Consensus: Badgers get tripped up in Evanston

Adam Hoge — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 23:10:02 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

about 1 month ago: Northwestern's Sidney Stewart (5) celebrates with fans and teammate Marshall Thomas (67) after their 17-10 victory over No. 8 Iowa in an NCAA college football game, on Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Wisconsin at Northwestern

Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT

Location: Ryan Field, Evanston, Ill.

Weather Forecast: 54F, Sunny, 10% chance of rain, Wind SE at 5 mph

TV: Big Ten Network

Radio: WIBA-AM 1310, WIBA-FM 101.5 and the Badger Radio Network

Coverage: A week's worth of coverage on SB Nation's UW-NU Game Page

Opposing Blogs: Sippin' on Purple and Lake the Posts

The Consensus

Jake Harris (9-1, +141): Wisconsin 34, Northwestern 31

Adam Hoge (9-1, +162): Northwestern 28, Wisconsin 27

Lake the Posts: Northwestern 30, Wisconsin 27

The Reasoning

Look, this is a game Wisconsin should win. The Badgers are favored by a touchdown because they are quite simply better than Northwestern at playing football. But that's why upsets are called upsets.

Beyond the reality that Wisconsin usually struggles at Northwestern in both football and basketball, its been four weeks since the Badgers played a team above .500 and that was when they were busy losing to Iowa. It appears the Badgers have made strides since their loss to Iowa, but let's not forget about some of their problems at Indiana two weeks ago. UW has not looked great on the road this season and Northwestern is playing its best football of the season. Upset city.

Who has the edge?

Offense: Wisconsin

Defense: Wisconsin

Special teams: Northwestern

Coaching: Northwestern

Intangibles: Even (it's a road game, but let's not forget there will probably be more red in the stands than purple)

Five Questions with Lake the Posts

1) Besides the Iowa win, Northwestern's results this season don't look all that impressive. A close win against Eastern Michigan, a loss to Syracuse, a struggle against Indiana, e.t.c. Now, those of us who look at more than the final scores know that despite the final score, NU gave Penn State a tough time and it appears this team is getting better week-by-week. How good is this team in reality?

This is one of the more enigmatic teams we've had. If there was one word to describe the team until Iowa it was "flat". We'd play stretches of fantastic football (see: shutting out Michigan State for 1st half) and periods we're we looked lost (see: Eastern Michigan 2nd half). The biggest problem has been defensive chemistry. We've started 20 different players this year due to injury and no joke, at one point were starting a 5th string unrecruited walk-on at CB (who played VERY well by the way). Our secondary was expected to be an all-time best, but I don't think we've started all four in the backfield this season. On offense we've been very productive in yardage, but when we got between the opponent's 40-30 we tend to stall out. We're not converting nearly enough drives in to points considering how much we move the ball. They've still yet to play a full 60 minute game.

2) What's Northwestern's perspective on Mike Hankwitz? Do you feel like you got a steal?

Yes. I believe the Wisconsin D was 37th or 38th when he got fired, which seemed unfathomable for us because we were always in the lower quartile with Greg Colby. There was nothing worse than scoring 40 and knowing it may not be enough. Last year was incredible - our D was amazing which is we had such high hopes for this year. Everyone is extremely high on Hankwitz, although I wish he'd be more aggressive late in games and not just always rush 3.

3) The defense has been better in recent weeks, but overall, it appears to be inconsistent. What are some of your concerns with how Northwestern will defend Wisconsin?

We have indeed been better, but our rush D, while solid statisically, hasn't faced the likes of a John Clay. We got gashed pretty good last week at times so it is of major concern, because you nailed it - we're inconsistent. We tend to give up the big pass play eventually against teams that pound it.

4) Has Mike Kafka been better than you expected? Can he expolit the Badger cornerbacks?

Yes and kind of. He's been much better passing than most expected - he's one of the nation's leaders in accuracy, but the only knock on Mike is the deep ball (although last week he looked very good going deep). Everyone expected him to be a run-first QB, but his running has been much less than expected. With his recent hamstring injury that sidelined him for much of the Penn State and Iowa games, he's almost completely reliant on the pass which is a concern. I expect us to pass under the coverage like we have all year.

5) It's Senior Day in Evanston and despite the Badgers always bringing thousands of fans to Ryan Field, the Wildcats seem to have Wisconsin's number at home. Who you got in this one and why?

I've been pretty darn good picking NU straight up this year which is saying something when you look at our schedule. I'm not going to lie, you're playmakers scare the hell out of me, but I'm simply going with the 'Cats because the jedi mind trick isn't as fun. I'm going to go with NU 30-27 and I'm attributing it to Hankwitz being able to pull some defensive magic out of the hat against his former boss. We HAVE to have the edge in turnover margin and it appears when Sherrick McManis makes an INT we win. Here's to Sherrick making a key pick!

Poll

Who you got Saturday in Evanston?

Wisconsin by 10 or more

14 votes

Wisconsin by 9 or less

23 votes

Northwestern by 9 or less

31 votes

Northwestern by 10 or more

2 votes

70 votes | Poll has closed

This isn't going away anytime soon.

Rodger Sherman — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:44:26 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Last name Ever. First name Greatest.

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I'm still letting this one sink in.

It's not every year you even get to play a top five ranked team, let alone beat one. I mean, at NU, it's not every half-century you beat a top five ranked team.

So, just enjoy this. Take all your nonsense about "this season is still kind of disappointing" and "oh, but the refs jobbed Iowa!" (yes, they did) "but Stanzi got hurt!" (first off. kid threw a pick too. and four in a quarter last week. maybe he hits djk on that long ball, but, the dude's not johnny friggin unitas. and second off, every team deals with injuries. we're dealing with them too!) and just take a few seconds, minutes, or hours to think about how great that win was for NU.

That win took a team that looked questionable for bowl season and essentially made them a lock for a postseason bid. If you ask people around NU what their goal is going into every season, I bet they'd say "to win a bowl game." Our program, as you know, has only been to back-to-back bowls once, and only won a bowl game once, and that was before my parents were alive. Either of those things happening would, in my opinion, make this a historic/successful season. This game probably doubled NU's chances at doing both of those things. Think about that for a second.

In fact, think about it the entire time I break down things that went well yesterday.

Our defense. Back. I mean, going into this season, we talked about our defense being an elite unit. And the team that played yesterday - with every starter except Brendan Smith on the field - fit that description: they didn't allow a single sustained drive for points all game long, they forced four - four! - turnovers.
I'm not a fan of hyperbole. (Actually, screw that, I am.) But I honestly don't think it's hyperbolic to call Wootton's strip-and-maim one of the most important plays in NU history. NU historians, if you can disagree with that statement, go ahead, I know I'm not as versed in Wildcats history as I should be. But without that play, we don't win that game. And without that game, well, this is a mediocre season at best. What Ferentz is thinking running a designed naked bootleg at our favorite formerly-formerly dynamic defensive end, I have no idea. But Wootton looked like that guy we knew not just on that one play, but all day: he's got more explosiveness than he had up till this week. He's back.
A boring but effective thing to do in this post is just listing defenders who played excessively well yesterday: Nate Williams, David Arnold (those two dudes were literally making tackles EVERYWHERE), Quentin Davie, Marshall Thomas (apparently, the reason he's been playing all year is because he's really great at hopping on fumbles), well, our whole d-line, subs and starters, Sherrick McManis and Jordan Mabin (let's not talk about the DJK touchdown), Brad Phillips. Applause, all around. The d-line was able to shut down the rush - not totally surprising against a team that was missing it's top 8 running backs - but the pass pressure was something we haven't seen all year. And neither Stanzi nor Vandenberg could settle in, or, for that matter, complete anything.
Mike Kafka cemented his place in our respective memories with the Minnesota game last year, and Persa, regardless of what the future holds (and I'm officially no longer scared), did that yesterday. Great game. Outside of the one ugly pass that got picked, he looked effective passing the ball, and, well, he's faster than Kafka. (less elusive, but faster. Both great runners.) I was not expecting that. Again, applause.
There's some serious slurpage going on here, but Mike Kafka also had a cojones performance. I mean, to come back in after looking suspect at best (both passing and not being able to move) in the beginning and then just running things after Persa's injury.
Scott Concannon. What? Where did this guy come from? He looked bad in the Towson game, then got a concussion, and then all of a sudden he comes back as a great runner against Indiana. I like his style: he's really good at waiting for his blockers to open up a hole where others might just try to plow through with speed, where Concannon knows his best option is to take it slow, see things develop, and then maybe just barely elude a hit. Only 60-odd yards on the day for him, but, damn, the guy doesn't go down unless you really hit him.
And I think who you credit with Concannon's success that he didn't have earlier in the year, and Persa's being able to run with no pretense of passing (something that never happened when he came in to spell Kafka and got stuffed for gains of one or two earlier in the year) is our offensive line. Another unit that was supposed to be decent coming into the year and then looked they couldn't open up a hole for Adrian Peterson. But yesterday, they were getting a major push against Iowa's d-line - Iowa's d-line! Yeah, they weren't great at pass protection, but when Persa came in, that sorta stopped mattering.
I think Stefan Demos could hit a 83 yarder. Just sayin.

So, yeah, I'm still too pumped to write something actually analytical, in case you couldn't tell.

Oh, yeah, and who's coming to Champaign next weekend?

Malicious Internet Interrogation With Lake The Posts

BSD — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:30:25 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

about 1 month ago: Northwestern's Sidney Stewart (5) and Brendan Mitchell (80) celebrate with fans after Northwestern's 29-28 victory over Indiana in an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009, in Evanston,Ill. (AP Photo/ Jim Prisching)

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This week Lake The Posts, a very fine Northwestern blog, was kind enough to tell us about the Wildcats and give us his perspective on the game this Saturday. He promised not to use any smart school words us state university educated people can't understand.

You guys aren't still mad about that whole 2005 thing, are you?

Not nearly as much as 2001! You'll see how the '01 game is the most underrated part of the demise of the most promising season we had. But yes, I was in the Cincinnati airport listening to the play-by-play of the Robinson-fumble game and nearly had police take me in to custody in the final minute of that game. Thanks for opening up that painful scab. Can we revisit 1995 please?

No. I don't remember anything between 1994 and 2005.

Before the season, Northwestern fans were pretty upbeat coming off of a 9-4 season and a narrow loss to Missouri in the Alamo Bowl. How would you say this season to date has met your expectations?

Abysmally short. The "realistic worst case scenario" heading in to the marquee home game of the year - Penn State - was 6-2. Most of us felt 7-1 was likely with the loss to Sparty being the lone loss. The reason for the optimism was the return of almost our entire defense including what was touted as the best secondary in school history. However, we've been absolutely decimated by injuries. By now you know we have likely 3 starters of our secondary out for Saturday and several back-ups out. No joke, Ricky Weina, an unrecruited walk-on played the entire second half at CB. Hence Fitz's predictions "guaranteeing" Penn State will throw "at least 10 deep balls" on Saturday. Our pre-season All-American Corey Wootton, an absolute DE terror last season has been painfully slow to recover from his blown knee in the Alamo Bowl. It is tough to watch as he hasn't been able to come close to playing to his '08 level.

When I saw Northwestern's poor rushing statistics I thought they must not be trying to run the ball much. But it turns out as a team they have 313 rushing attempts versus 305 passing attempts on the season, so they are trying to run the ball. Would you say the lack of production is more a function of the offensive line struggling or the lack of a feature running back to carry the load?

Wow. That number surprises me. The answer is both. Our OL has been terrible - again, a perceived strength since we return most of the starters but we also lack a traditional Damien Anderson/Jason Wright/Tyrell Sutton playmaker at RB. Mike Kafka, our QB is our best rusher, however our 4^th string RB, Scott Concannon showed the first glimpse of hope at that spot last week by making guys miss and he was brilliant on the game-winning drive. He earned the starting nod this week. Kafka is getting 15 or so rushes per game so you can significanty reduce the touches by our true RBs.

Northwestern's passing defense is middle-of-the-road in the Big Ten right now. Being a defensive-minded coach, this has to be driving Fitz nuts. Is the problem a lack of experience? Is it a lack of talent? Is it injuries? What does Northwestern need to get better?

See above. Injuries. When we're healthy, we're very good. Sherrick McManis is a star CB - a true star on any Big Ten team, yet he's now out for Saturday. It's all injuries. When we lost one of our starters in the secondary for the ‘Cuse game, they just picked on then 3^rd string Demetrius Dugar and Mike Williams picked him apart for nearly 200 yards. I can't remember a unit being so plagued by injuries. Despite the alleged upgrade in recruiting under Fitz, depth is still not our strength. If our 4 starting DBs were playing, I'd actually feel promise for Saturday. With the injury-depleted replacements (we have 2 back-ups out with injury) I fear for a long day. Clark should throw all day downfield.

I'm assuming some Penn State games this year. Where do you think the Wildcats will try to exploit the Nittany Lion defense when they have the ball?

NU hasn't really altered the offensive gameplan against anyone, other than throwing downfield more last week vs Indiana. We are extremely deep and talented at WR and walk-on, turned scholarship senior Zeke Markshausen is one of the surprise stories not only at NU, but in all of the Big Ten this season. He had 1 catch in his career prior to '09 and he has 58 this season, including 16 in a game at Michigan State. Kafka is extremely accurate until the 2^nd half of last week when he threw 3 really bad INTs. We dink and dunk downfield and take the occasional 20-30 yard strike. Andrew Brewer has finally emerged as the true playmaker we knew he could be. I expect us to continue to throw 45+ times this weekend and see if Concannon can establish any kind of a ground game. We've yet to face a D anything close to Penn State, so we shall see.

And how do you think Fitzgerald will scheme to stop the Penn State offense?

I've got to believe you'll see one of the more aggressive blitz packages to date. If we give Clark any time it's over early. We're going to have to create a slew of turnovers - a la 2005 - to have any shot.

Care to make a prediction?

Penn State 41 NU 20

Thanks LTP. Good luck on your season.

DON'T CALL IT A COMEBACK

Rodger Sherman — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:27:48 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

It is up, it is... well, you know the rest.

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WE'VE BEEN HERE FOR QUARTERS

A lot of people will tell you that yesterday's 29-28 victory was a comeback. People will probably cite the fact that we were down 21-0, and 28-3, and that this game was, well, the largest comeback victory in NU history.

But despite the fact that Northwestern was down by 14, 21, 25, and whatever other horrific things we were down by at various points in the game, there was maybe a span of 30 seconds where I thought "well, we're out of this game." Some combination of us having done this two weeks ago against Purdue and the fact that this game was, essentially, a single-elimination game for bowl eligibility allowed me to refuse to believe that this game was guaranteed over.

And luckily, my fellow students who actually play football were with me on this one. It's the same story: we come out like whatever the opposite of gangbusters is (gangs?), we give up a touchdown before I even get in the stadium, we're looking dead in the water, and then something just clicked.

It's not like we played flawless football for the last 25 minutes. Mike Kafka threw multiple picks, and half the ones that weren't picked off were overthrown. We needed a dude tripping over his offensive lineman at the one-yard line to prevent this game from not even meaning anything. Our receivers dropped a buttload of passes.

But we were in it. And never did I, nor anybody on the field, or any of the other few thousand people screaming their respective lungs out and jumping up and down like idiots in the student section.

So, people, remember the words of a wise man who came before us: Don't call it a comeback.

Boom. Explosion.

Now, what you really want to read, bulletpoints:

Let's start out with the bad stuff: Jeez, Mike Kafka, I'm not sure how you won us that game. For the first time this year, Kafka completed multiple passes way downfield. One was a perfect pass to Andrew Brewer, which Brew had about 25 yards after the reception on and merked some dude who tried to head-tackle him. One was a great catch from Zeke Markshausen. One was a shoulda-been, woulda-been pick that Andrew Brewer wrestled away from an Indiana defender. The rest of his long throws were overthrown or hanging ducks that just fell into Indiana hands. Don't get me wrong, it's a major improvement from his deep throwing in previous games. But, yeesh.
Also, his other two picks were just confusing. Like, I'm not sure who he was aiming for.
Our special teams is a mess right now. First off, that rugby punt thing might have to go. No matter how good it supposedly is for field position, and how it occasionally bounces off opposing players and we recover it, when Demos messes it up and airs it out it's just impossible to cover the returner in time. See, Maclin, Jeremy, and that dude who returned it to our 30 or so, and led to an easy touchdown.
I would be angry at the receiving corps for some serious drops, but they've been pretty good all year. The only thing I wish is that we had some running backs who can catch.
Done with the bad stuff. Of course, I also shoulda wrote "let's not go down by 20+ in the first half", but I can live with that.
Game ball goes to the really, really old guy who was a baton majorette today. Not sure who this guy is, but he went on the field and strutted his stuff with a baton during halftime, and won the hearts and minds of the entire student body. Clap it up for that guy.
I was truly inspired by the play of Ricky Weina, our sixth-string - SIXTH-STRING! - corner coming into the year playing due to the injury to Sherrick McManis and, well, whatever was up with Demetrius Dugar and Mike Bolden and Justan Vaughn today. So much so that I decided to write the following screenplay about his performance today. I should note that the screenplay is based on a true life story. And when I say "it's based on a true life story," I mean, it's actually just a conversation I had with the guy I was standing near today.

(several men are standing on a metal bench. All of them think the name "Weina" is pronounced so that it rhymes with "hyena."

Me: Hey, dude, what happened to Sherrick McManis?

Him: I don't know. Wait, Scott Weina is playing. That's not good. He sucks.

Me: I think his name is Ricky, and he's a dominant force. (Weina covers the Indiana WR who gets thrown to on third down, the play is incomplete because of a poor throw by Ben Chappell.) WEINA! Oh, man, that was all Weina. You can't stop Weina, you can only hope to contain him.

Him: Actually, that's not true. You can stop him. He can be contained.

Me: Look, he's out on punt coverage too. (Ricky Weina blocks a punt.) WEINA! YOU CAN'T STOP WEINA! HE'S TOO STRONG! TOO STRONG! HE'S TOO PRETTY! YOU CAN ONLY HOPE TO CONTAIN HIM! (the curtain closes as I run up and down the uninhabited bench in front of us yelling at the top of my lungs for a good 45 seconds that people cannot stop Weina, nor contain him.)

And scene. I'm shouldn't be impressed by a w over Indiana, but look at how banged up our team is at this point in the season. A fun game to play when you're looking at a defense playing Weina, Kevin Watt, Quentin Williams, David Nwabuisi, Brian Peters, and Jared Carpenter is "find the defensive player who was starting three weeks ago". It's pretty hard. And what's more, the dudes who I'm naming weren't just wasting space on defense, they were playing well. You could tell the Hoosiers were picking on Weina, but he didn't let up many completions, what's more, he returned a punt. He's probably this week's MVP. Peters and Carpenter weren't a gynormous dropoff from Phillips and Smith, and those were two of our teams rocks coming into the year. Watt and Williams might be outplaying Corey Wootton thus far in the year - although Woot did come alive a little bit today.
Not to mention that I can't find a running back I expected to play coming into the year. Scott Concannon? Scott Concannon looked downright decent today, and not just on the last drive where he was busting out ten yard runs left and right. (BTdubs, credit Zeke Markshausen with one of the better wide receiver run blocks in NU history to clear out the entire right side of our offense for a Concannon sprint for a first.) He was getting four yards on draws up the middle that had been getting none or one a few weeks ago with Arby Fields. And Jeravin Matthews looked sweet out of the backfield when he was there.
Bill Lynch has gotta feel silly about leaving those three points on the field on that fourth-and-one at the one. I know he should've had a TD, but, man. You lost by one. I guess he's only got the entire month of December and January when Indiana isn't playing in a bowl to think about it, though.
Major props to Indiana's Nick Polk for busting out the WWE tackle on Sidney Stewart. I didn't hear the call, but I'll have to assume it was "personal foul, illegal use of a piledriver, automatic first down."
By the way, I recently discovered that the refs enjoy chilling out in the hallway between the student section and the exits after the game. I guess this is their locker room, and congrats to Ryan Field for giving them essentially THE WORST POSSIBLE PLACE TO PUT REFEREES IN THE ENTIRE STADIUM. I've taken to sarcastically congratulating them on my way out, I think NU students should begin to make this a habit.
Andrew Brewer looked like a beast in weeks one and three, but has been AWOL in every other week. But today he was great. He scored a TD on a great personal play by him, and saved a pick on the aforementioned Kafka heave, plus got open on fourth-and-three.
In closing, let's look back on the bad times: a selection of comments from the first half of Saturday's game. Che effort is beyond pathetic. Beyond embarassing. I think if you went out to Long Field and picked up a handful of IM players, you could do no worse.

"The effort is beyond pathetic. Beyond embarassing. I think if you went out to Long Field and picked up a handful of IM players, you could do no worse." - buckyor

"idjmpoiewqmdpoiewqnmdp" - Loretta8

"My U of C Maroons could play better than this…" - HMLee

"today is the day when all aspects FAIL MISERABLY." - pfoley

"We are worse than Illinois, much worse than Virginia. We are dogshit." - buckyor

Well, it sure did look that way at the time, and I hope this self-reverse schadenfreude is as cathartic for y'all as it is for me.

Anyway, major thanks to everybody who stopped by in the comments section. I never thought I'd get that many comments for a home game, and I swear, next time it's warm enough for me to use my iPhone in the seats, I'll comment along with y'all. Although you seemed to be doing fine without me.

Q&A with Lake the Posts.

John M (The Crimson Quarry) — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 02:30:09 -0000

via www.sportslogos.net

Earlier today, I posted a link to Lake the Posts, where I answered some of LTP's questions in anticipation of tomorrow's game. LTP's answers to my questions are below:

1. Northwestern has typically been able to run the ball successfully, but> not this year. What's the problem? I expected Tyrell Sutton to be a big loss, but it must be bigger than that, right?

Much bigger. It has been a bizarro year to be understated. Essentially everything we thought would be a strength has been a weakness and vice versa, EXCEPT the ground game. We feared it was this potentially bad, however, our OL was solid last year albeit extremely green. The big assumption was they'd improve -many had our O-line picked as one of the better in the Big Ten - and thus, the ground game wouldn't be as bad as we thought. It's beyond bad. Our OL has been brutal and we have no one in the backfield with any degree of elusiveness which makes for a disastrous 1-2 combo. Kind of like Orange juice and toothpaste.

2. Given Mike Kafka's numbers, it's not surprising that the Wildcats have a number of receivers with impressive stats. Which Wildcat receivers should Hoosier fans worry about the most?

Andrew Brewer reawakened last week and can be a downfield threat. Zeke Markshausen is having a tremendous season and is coming off a 16 reception week vs MSU (not a misprint) and is our clutch receiver, although usually short yardage. We're loaded with great hands across the board including Sidney Stewart, but lack a true gamebreaker.

3. How about on defense? Which part of your defense presents the biggest problem for the Hoosier offense?

The secondary is our strength, but they're dinged badly. Preseason All-American Corey Wootton, our Greg Middleton (but better in '08) has not recovered well from the torn ACL and has yet to register a sack.It's been sad to watch him struggle so. Our DL has recently comealive, but Sherrick McManis, our CB is the clear difference maker on D. Both our senior starting safeties - Brendan Smith (out) and Brad Phillips (likely out) are huge losses. MSU exploited this once Phillips went out of the game after we pitched a 1st half shutout.

4. If there is any Big Ten fan base than can sympathize with Northwestern's
attendance woes, it's IU's. But over the last couple of years, despite
plenty of success and optimism, you guys have been making us look like Ohio
State. I know you have dedicated many posts to this topic, but what's the
problem in a nutshell?

NU is infamous for playing to the level of the opponent - both the very good and the very bad. For us to take the next step, we need to learn how to step on teams' throats when we get up. We almost emit a"nice guy" image and lack the OSU kick your ass instinct. This applies to IU. No offense, but we've actually had more talent most of this decade, but you always play us tough. We don't take IU lightly, although we did last year - as a fan base anyway. We both look at this as "W" every year the schedule comes out, but the confidence is clearly lacking in Wildcat Nation. I can't remember a more disappointing season since 2001 - our post Big Ten champion year when we returned most of our weapons.

5. And finally, what's your prediction for tomorrow?

Possibly wishful thinking but the revenge factor from 08 + homecoming+ must win for bowl hopes gives us the slightest of edge:NU 30 IU 27 (OT).

Thanks, LTP.

Northwestern vs. Indiana: Now with Bowl Implications!

Rodger Sherman — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 19:14:28 -0000

That should say "now with major bowl implications."

Actually, it should say "now with major implications for minor bowls."

Coming into the year, someone who knew nothing about college football saw this matchup and was probably like "man, that game's gonna suck, a bunch of cellar-dwellers," and somebody who paid way too much attention to college football probably saw this matchup and thought "hey, two Big Ten darkhorses, I like it."

Well, they were both a little bit right, but primarily wrong. What I mean is, both of these teams are pretty bad. NU seems to be missing a different facet of their game every week, and Indiana couldn't defend an armless toddler in a game of pickup basketball. But on the other hand, both these teams are 4-3, a win away from .500 in-conference, and would be teeter-tottering on the edge of bowldom if they won. So in short, both these teams are terrible, but this is a big game. Lezz preview it.

Oh, and check out The Crimson Quarry. Do it. Or else.

I'd take Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell in a arm-muscle vein-off against most people, except maybe Wolverine from the Wolverine movie.

When we got the ball: If there's been one constant in NU's season thus far, it's our lack of a run game. I'd even take the Hoosiers anemic run defense against our backfield. Don't run. Pass. Luckily, Pat Fitzgerald appears to be committed to this revolutionary gameplan. You know, I didn't even notice Jacob Schmidt was out last week? I mean, maybe I did, but it's just so irrelevant at this point who we have available at running back. We shouldn't be running.

So the onus, once again, is on Mike Kafka. We best be double-teaming Jammie Kirlew, because knowing this year's o-line, one guy ain't gonna cut it, and I'd like to see Kafka recognize when he's a few seconds away from getting sacked by that huge dude, tucking it away, and going at the soft weak area of that Indiana defense, which as noted, ain't too great outsidea that Kirlew fella. He's got the speed, and if he uses it correctly, I'd be down for a mini-Minnesota 08.

Oh, and DON'T FUMBLE. It's comical how different a game that big l last week is if not for two mental lapses.

When they got the ball: I'll be real, I like what I've seen from this defensive unit in the past few weeks. Even though we let MSU drop 24 last week, I'm not disappointed with the showing, and Indiana is a considerably worse team offensively, and hopefully we won't be giving them fumbles on our own 22 this week.

The key is covering Tandon Doss. I think we all trust Sherrick McManis right now, even after the Blair Whitestravaganza last week, so, let's see him get to it.

People I'm watching:

Offense: Neil Deiters: Deiters has officially moved on up into the starting lineup and is listed as "OR" in the starting spot at left tackle. If you're not gulping just because we're starting a redshirt freshman at what's probably the most important position on the line with a righty quarterback, you should be gulping because we're starting a redshirt freshman who hasn't looked great, accumulating two holding calls back-to-back last week, at what's probably the most important position on the line with a righty quarterback, against a team with the best DE in the conference and Greg Middleton, who isn't too bad, at the other end spot. Whoever is there is in trouble and will be one of the keys to this matchup, let's hope Deiters, after starting his first game last week, can come up big, block out Kirlew and buy Kafka that extra second he might need in a pass-happy offense.

Defense: Not to be obvious, but Jared Carpenter. Last week, we saw Brian Peters step in at a safety spot and replace Brendan Smith, all things told, quite well, and was one of the best players on the defense. Now, Brad Phillips is questionable, and I'm not going to hold Carpenter to Peters' standard, because even I wasn't expecting that. But most likely, Carpenter will get his first start this week, and they'll be passing, and he'll have to make big plays, even though essentially none of us know anything about him. Tell us something, Jared.

Pick in a mascot fight to the death: Toughie. The wildcat has claws and paws, but the hoosier is about four times his size. If the wildcat can dig in deep, prevent himself from getting kicked or punched too hard, and climb up his opponent for a potentially winning headshot, he should have an easy win. Game, Northwestern. (mascot death fight records: NU, 3-5, Indiana, 2-6.)

Prediction:

Despues del jump!

Northwestern, 34, Indiana, 27. Northwestern's not much better, but they're better. NU has had games in which they've been great offensively, games when they've been great defensively, but none with both, and it's not happening this week. But I don't see Mike Kafka not wreaking havoc on Indiana's defense, and we might have ourselves a shootout.

Anyway, disagree or agree in the comments, and, if you ain't at the game tomorrow, a) what's wrong with you, you sick bastard and b) stop by in the comments section. I won't be commenting along, probably, but do it to it anyway.

Preview: Michigan State vs. Northwestern

LVS — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 20:36:02 -0000

[Sorry for the delayed posting. --LVS.]

Hey! Let's celebrate a big comeback which ended up meaning absolutely nothing in one of the worst MSU football seasons ever!

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN
NOON, ESPN2
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY, 42-45 DEGREES

After a tremendously disappointing start to the season, in the last two weeks your Spartans have effectively turned things around, and at least left open the possibility for this to become a successful season. What the 3-game losing streak does mean, though, is that there is no more margin for error, and a game like Saturday's -- at home, against a less-talented team -- has gone from "should win" to "must win," lest our rehabilitated 3-3 record become 3-5 by next Saturday night. Northwestern has had quite a bit of success recently in East Lansing; they've won the last two, including a game in 2007 which stands as our poorest performance under Mark Dantonio. Our upperclassmen will remember that game too clearly to be looking ahead to Iowa. The line on this game, I believe, currently has MSU giving 12.5 points; I think that's awfully generous, but for our purposes, fortunately, beating Northwestern is more important than beating the spread. While we may not do the latter, we will do the former.

NORTHWESTERN SO FAR:

1 blowout against an overmatched 1-AA opponent (Towson);
1 very close call against an overmatched 1-A opponent (Eastern Michigan);
1 sleepwalk-type win against an overmatched 1-A opponent (Miami);
1 halfway-decent road win (but against a team which seems to find new, heartwrenching ways to lose each week -- Purdue);
1 home loss to Minnesota, an understandable defeat to a team that's roughly equivalent to MSU in talent;
1 completely inexcusable close road loss to Syracuse (Syracuse!).

Normally, it'd be difficult to say that a 4-2 record for Northwestern is disappointing, but LTP certainly is, and with some justification:

On the heels of our 9-3 2008 season buoyed by a stellar D, all signs pointed to the best D since 1995 and it has been an adventure to say the least. Our O-line was expected to be the strength of the offense with question marks at the skill positions. Mike Kafka has been a pleasant surprise with his passing and our WR corps is stellar, yet we lack a true Dell or Cunningham-like gamebreaker. Our line play has been weak and our rushing game non-existent. Essentially everything we thought would be great is not and almost vice versa. 5-1 was what we expected as a realistic worst case scenario as fans through those soft 6 games. It has been disappointing to say the least.

Still, 4-2 after 6 games certainly puts Northwestern in a position to play in a good bowl if they're able to pick up a key win or two from here forward. Presumably, Saturday would be one of the games they've circled on their calendar; despite the rough start, this is not a team that has reason to throw in the towel.

Mein bratwurst has a first name, it's "Zeke," mein bratwurst has a second name, it's "Markshausen" . . .

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: . . . hold onto your hat; Northwestern is going to want to play fast. The Wildcats ran 93 offensive plays against MSU last season, and will frequently forego huddling up between snaps. In that regard, it's fortunate that we've already played Michigan: while the offenses aren't exactly the same (Northwestern's much more of a passing team than Michigan is), the Wolverines' frequent no-huddle drives should have prepared us for the pace NU would like to play at.

Northwestern's run game has been a disappointment. Take it away, LTP:

We've stunk. The original starter Stephen Simmons has been out most of the season with an injury and true frosh Arby Fields early-on appeared to be the guy who would get the ball and become our next 4-year RB. However, our line has been horrid and our RBs have yet to show they can elude defenders. Jacob Schmidt, a short yardage back and walk-on turned schollie this year is a feisty guy, but good for 3rd and 2 and not much more. He's got great hands and turned heads with an amazing catch last week though. I can't remember our run game being so much of a detriment.

Sippin' on Purple reports that Simmons is listed first on the NU depth chart for Saturday, so they "might actually see some semblance of a running game this week." Simmons certainly seems to be an improvement over the other options:

RUSHING	GP	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Fields, Arby	6	53	210	20	190	3.6	4	25	31.7
Schmidt, Jacob	6	45	161	2	159	3.5	1	13	26.5
Simmons, Stephen	3	33	153	0	153	4.6	2	14	51.0

Limited sample size, of course, but compared to the other two, Simmons has picked up an extra yard per carry. Furthermore, QB Mike Kafka is a threat with his feet; he has 229 positive rushing yards through 6 games, and exploded into the Big Ten consciousness with a 217 yard (!) rushing effort at Minnesota last year. He's obviously reined in the rushing a bit so far this year, but given MSU's historic difficulties with rushing quarterbacks, I wouldn't be shocked to see some designed keeper plays.

Kafka's been more average passing the ball: he's currently 8th in the conference in passing efficiency (130.04, well behind Kirk Cousins' 141.81, and against lesser competition, of course), and is completing 67% of his passes, with 5 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. LTP says that Kafka "has a great arm, yet we never stretch the field and really go deep"; in my mind, that reinforces the perception that Northwestern is a team which lives and dies on the short passing game. We had tons of trouble with that type of attack against CMU, but we seemed to learn from those mistakes against Michigan.

Not surprisingly, NU's wideouts don't seem to be the deep-threat type: the top receiver is Zeke Markshausen (but can he catch frisbees in his mouth?), who has 34 catches, but for only 348 yards (10.2 average) and no touchdowns. He's not big (5'11", 185), nor fast, and he is white and a walk-on, so I believe he fully qualifies to be called "gritty" and "Welker/Chrebet-like." Drake Dunsmore (sounds like he should be sailing off of Cape Cod, no?) is the second leading receiver, and has remarkably similar numbers: 25 catches for 270 yards (10.8 average) and one touchdown. He's bigger, though: 6'3", 235. LTP also says to keep your eyes on . . .

I think Sidney Stewart might be our biggest threat (had 7 rec last year vs Sparty mostly when game was out of hand). However, I'm a big fan of Jeravin Matthews a tweener WR/RB whoseemingly makes big things happen on every touch ,yet we don't use him NEARLY enough.

. . . so, yeah. Pay attention to those guys, too.

For our defense, expect to see us play a slew of different linebackers, in an attempt to keep fresh through Northwestern's breakneck pace. Chris Norman figures heavily in the plans:

Because the Spartans are expecting more of the same, players such as true freshman outside linebacker Chris Norman better plan to have an expanded role. [ . . . ]

"The other reason is we’re going to have to play multiple people. One of Northwestern’s goals is to wear you down. But when we have athletes like Chris, who can give guys like (starter Brandon) Denson a break, we’re going to use that."

Norman already has one start, against Notre Dame, to his credit, but only six tackles. Junior Jon Misch, who backs up Eric Gordon on the other side, also figures into Tressel’s plans.

Also worth noting: NU has allowed 14 sacks through 6 games against poor competition. Their offensive line is not good. We have 10 in the past two games. We could easily make that 15 or 16 through three games by tomorrow night.

YTMND.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins is your quarterback and Larry Caper is your running back. Sounds pretty nice, eh?

LTP says that the Northwestern secondary is the team's best unit:

Our secondary was banged up and still is. It is our strongest unit though. Sherrick McManis has made some incredible picks and is finally at the lockdown mode we expected him to be after missing a couple of games due to injury. Safety Brendan Smith left last week's game, but his replacement, Brian Peters played extremely well. Jordan Mabin at the other corner is the real deal and can hit hard and Brad Phillips has been up and down, but seemst to have regained his '08 form. It is a solid unit when healthy.

. . . but statistics seem to show that they're a very average unit, albeit one that forces a lot of turnovers. They've been giving up 218 yards per game so far this season (almost 12 yards per completion), and have allowed 10 touchdown passes. But, they do have 10 interceptions, including 3 in the past 3 games for the aforementioned Sherrick McManis (who got the fluffy treatment from Teddy Greenstein in yesterday's Chicago Tribune). I'll suggest the same thing that I did before the Michigan game:

But as to the ~~Donovan Warren~~ Sherrick McManis thing: yeah, given our depth at wide receiver, we should just write off whomever he's covering and go elsewhere.

Furthermore, LTP said that Northwestern is already worried about the deep threat posed by Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham (and I'll throw in Keshawn Martin for good measure); this can't help:

The degree of difficulty increased for Northwestern on Thursday night with the announcement that veteran starting safety Brendan Smith will not play at Michigan State because of a thumb injury.

Smith -- one of only eight players in NU history to be named a co-captain in repeat seasons -- has started 38 games, including the last 19. He also is the leading punt returner for the Cats with an average of 6.6 yards, fourth best in the Big Ten.

With Smith out, Brian Peters will likely make the third start of his career.

Yeah, let's try to take some shots downfield, plz.

Against the rush, Northwestern has been better: they've allowed 716 yards through six games (119 per game), and only 3.48 yards per carry. So, this shouldn't be like it was against Illinois, where (at least in the first half, when we were making a full effort) we could hand the ball off and pretty much be guaranteed somewhere between 6-8 yards. This should be a better test for the offensive line, and for Larry Caper; if we can get solid contributions from the running game, 1) we're going to win this game, and 2) it portends good things for next week, when Iowa will be an even sterner test.

Finally, even though Corey Wootton has been more or less a non-factor so far this year, Northwestern still has 19 sacks on the season, including 4 for linebacker Quentin Davie, and 2 each for LB David Arnold, safety Brad Phillips, and defensive linemen Vince Browne, Corbin Bryant, and Kevin Watt. (The substantial number of sacks from the linebackers and secondary suggest a blitz-happy defense.) We lead the league with only six sacks allowed, and this would be a good week to keep that up, given the Cousins' slight remaining injury, Nichol's injury, and the desire not to burn Andrew Maxwell's redshirt. Honestly, I think we should be all right: the only two players who have really hurt us consistently on the rush are O'Brien Schofield and Brandon Graham, and they're the two best defensive linemen in the conference. If Wootton was healthy, he'd be in that class too, but nothing suggests that he'll be a major threat on Saturday.

THE OBLIGATORY PREDICTION: Wherein I cheat by posting something that I've already written!

The team's play has improved, and Kirk Cousins' return should be a major spark for the team. One thing you didn't mention that may be a factor: I understand that NU's offensive line has been a problem, and that plays right into our hands. MSU had 10 sacks and 18 TFLs against Michigan and Illinois, and the interior of our defensive line has been blasting into the backfield right on the snap.

Honestly, I'm shocked that the line on this game is this high. Everyone remembers what happened the last time NU came to East Lansing, so I'm sure the team and the coaching staff aren't going to be looking past this game. (Many fans, on the other hand, may already have moved their thoughts onto the Iowa game, so the stadium atmosphere may be somewhat lacking.) I think it should be an entertaining game, like most in this series have been, but our defense has really stepped up the past two weeks and I think that trend will continue. 27-17, MSU.

Your thoughts?

Conversations with the Enemy: Talking Northwestern with Lake The Posts

LVS — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 16:12:54 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

2 months ago: Northwestern's Corbin Bryant, right, sacks Minnesota quarterback Adam Webber during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game in Evanston, Ill., Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009.(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Browse more photos »

I traded a few questions about Saturday's game with Lake The Posts, the original (but no longer only!) Northwestern football blog. My answers to his questions will be posted on his site shortly.

Below, I'm in bold:

Despite its 4-2 record, Northwestern hasn't been receiving a whole lot of accolades for its performance in the first half of the season. The Wildcats lost to Syracuse, barely scraped by against Eastern Michigan, and didn't get the blowout most expected against Miami last week, but the win at Purdue clearly was huge for the team's bowl hopes. Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the first half of the NU's season?

I'm not. Most of Wildcat Nation is not. We were missing four defensive starters in the Syracuse team and our lack of depth showed immensely. This has been the most bizarro season since 2001 at Northwestern. On the heels of our 9-3 2008 season buoyed by a stellar D, all signs pointed to the best D since 1995 and it has been an adventure to say the least. Our O-line was expected to be the strength of the offense with question marks at the skill positions. Mike Kafka has been a pleasant surprise with his passing and our WR corps is stellar, yet we lack a true Dell or Cunningham-like gamebreaker. Our line play has been weak and our rushing game non-existent. Essentially everything we thought would be great is not and almost vice versa. 5-1 was what we expected as a realistic worst case scenario as fans through those soft 6 games. It has been disappointing to say the least.

More, after the jump.

Corey Wootton was expected to be one of the best defensive performers in the conference, but many have said that it looks like he's still being hampered by his ACL problems. How has he looked this season, and how important is his play to your defense?

He hasn't been much of a factor. We all feel for the kid as he was a terrorizing gamechanger last season, and he played one series last week due to an ankle injury. When he was "healthy" he simply has seemed tentative. He's clearly not "back". He did draw some early season double-teams, but he's not the All-American he was expected to be. Not even close.

When most non-Northwestern fans last noticed Mike Kafka, he was busy rushing for about 874 yards in your wild win at the Metrodome last year. Is he still a major running threat? More generally, what can we expect to see from Kafka? ( . . .resisting the urge to make obvious literary jokes . . . )

Great question. Fans have been squawking about our lack of using Kafka as the RB. He's the best short yardage "back" we have, yet we're rotating a slew of RBs who haven't made much of a difference. We're at a loss as NU ALWAYS has a stellar RB. Mike has a great arm, yet we never stretch the field and really go deep which I believe hampers our rushing attack. You can expect to see 40+ passes from him and when he's on - watch-out. He makes much better decisions than CJ [Bacher --ed.] did, but he does tend to hold on to the ball a tad too long. He's slowly been running more each week. Most of us would be happy to have him throw 50+ this week and rush 10-12 times.

Northwestern, like MSU, has had to rework its running game this season after graduating a multi-year starter at tailback. It seems like NU has taken the running-back-by-committee approach, and statistics indicate that
the results have been fairly meh. Is that the case?

You're being generous. We've stunk. The original starter Stephen Simmons has been out most of the season with an injury and true frosh Arby Fields early-on appeared to be the guy who would get the ball and become our next 4-year RB. However, our line has been horrid and our RBs have yet to show they can elude defenders. Jacob Schmidt, a short yardage back and walk-on turned schollie this year is a feisty guy, but good for 3rd and 2 and not much more. He's got great hands and turned heads with an amazing catch last week though. I can't remember our run game being so much of a detriment.

Unlike in previous years, the current MSU offense is built around the passing game, and we've been fairly successful at it this season. How has the Northwestern secondary looked so far?

Our secondary was banged up and still is. It is our strongest unit though. Sherrick McManis has made some incredible picks and is finally at the lockdown mode we expected him to be after missing a couple of games due to injury. Safety Brendan Smith left last week's game, but his replacement, Brian Peters played extremely well. Jordan Mabin at the other corner is the real deal and can hit hard and Brad Phillips has been up and down, but seemst to have regained his '08 form. It is a solid unit when healthy. We've had a slew of INTs and fumble-inducing hits in the past two weeks and the 'Cats will need to win the TO margin game to beat Sparty in my mind.

Is there anyone on either side of the ball for Northwestern who MSU fans probably aren't aware of, but should keep an eye on?

Zeke Markshausen - a walk-on WR turned scholarship guy has become our clutch receiver. He's been fantastic. As mentioned, we've got 6-7 WRs that are solid. I think Sidney Stewart might be our biggest threat (had 7 rec last year vs Sparty mostly when game was out of hand). However, I'm a big fan of Jeravin Matthews a tweener WR/RB who
seemingly makes big things happen on every touch ,yet we don't use him NEARLY enough.

Finally, your score prediction please:

Michigan State 30 NU 24 - As usual, this one comes down to who has the ball last...

Thanks, LTP, and for the next three days, I hate you!