SB Nation - Jordan Mabin

The Best of Times, the Worst of Times: Northwestern Ends on a High Note Over Wisconsin, 33-31

hmlee — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 02:05:41 -0000

Well, that turned out to be quite the exciting game. I was rather shocked by the final score, though not by who won. Those of you who've been around since the beginning of the season know that this was a tough one for me, as I write about both Wisconsin and Northwestern for The Rivalry, Esq. I grew up a Badger fan and as a current Northwestern Law student also cheer quite hard for the Wildcats. While the Northwestern-Wisconsin rivalry isn't a blood feud like some others in this conference, it was still a difficult game for me. Every play was essentially both good and bad. I cheered and then felt despondent for the entirety of this game. That's not really a fun way to spend a Saturday afternoon.

I had hoped earlier this season that things would shake out in such a way that this game would only be important to one team and thus I would be able to pick a side for the game and stick with it. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately) this game held implications for both teams. Both teams gained bowl eligibility weeks ago, but the the narrative of their seasons was on the line. While the cheesehead in me is sad that the Badgers lost, I think, in the end I am happy that the game turned out the way it did. Frankly, Northwestern needed this game more.

That might seem to be an odd statement, but, looking at the reality of this conference it makes sense from both a bowl perspective and a recruiting perspective. The current Big 10 standings have three teams at 10-2 on the season, with Ohio State taking the championship based on their better in conference record. OSU will thus claim the Big 10's automatic BCS berth and head to Pasadena to take on the Pac-10 champ. As far as at large berths go, Iowa will probably claim another for the Big 10, and Penn State has an outside chance of grabbing one also. If they didn't get an at large, PSU would be slotted into the Capital One bowl vs. a SEC team.

Wisconsin, then, was priced out of the BCS a long time ago. Even at 10-2, it would have been unlikely for them to move from their slot in the Outback bowl, and at 9-3 (assuming a win in two weeks over Hawaii) they won't drop from that perch either. Further, Wisconsin's team is a young one. They have performed remarkably well for such a freshman-sophomore loaded squad, and I see only bright things ahead of them.

Northwestern was in a similar bowl game spot. With the upset of Iowa and the expected victory over Illinois, Northwestern had vaulted themselves to 7 wins and past the rest of the mushy middle of the Big 10 to claim a ticket to the Champs Sports bowl. The victory today gives them eight wins, but they still sit behind Wisconsin and unless the Badgers falter in Hawaii they will still have a worse record by a game. Because Michigan State lost to Penn State today, there is no team capable of leapfrogging the 'Cats. Northwestern is as stuck as Wisconsin.

So, then, we must look at this game from a recruiting perspective. Wisconsin will always do well in recruiting among Big 10 teams. They are a flagship state school known both for academics as well as athletics. They have the loyalty of an entire state, as well as a history of a great football team and will always be competitive with the upper tier Big 10 teams for recruits. A victory tonight wouldn't have altered that in any meaningful way.

Northwestern, by contrast, could gain a significant boost from this victory. With today's win they have sealed an eight win season after coming from virtually nowhere to reach nine wins last year. They will not only be going to a bowl two years in a row, but a warm weather bowl at that (no Pizza! Pizza! here). Despite the dismal beginning to this season, they defeated two of the three ranked teams they played against, and came one quarter away from upsetting the third when Penn State came to town. These upsets, if they can be combined with the 'Cats first bowl victory in 60 years, would seal the impression in recruits minds that Fitz is determined to build a consistently winning program in Evanston that will compete with the conference's upper tier.

Thus, the team that needed the victory most managed to pull it out, and I am at least moderately happy for that.

After the jump, I do a multiple personality recap of the action on the field...

Bama Hawkeye takes a look at the sweet goods on the line this weekend in the Big 10...

Graham and Law Buck engage in dueling coverage of the OSU and Michigan rivalry game...

The only way to really address the in game action today is for me to look at it both as a Northwestern fan and a Wisconsin fan. Because Northwestern comes first alphabetically, I'll start with them.

Northwestern:

It was good to see the 'Cats start this game off on all cylinders. I like this style of play much better than their "wait until we're down by an absurd margin and then mount a nail-biting comeback" gameplan.

Kafka lead the 'Cats on their opening drive from the Northwestern 25 yard line for a score. The defense then answered that by coming out of the gate and largely containing the John Clay led Badger offense and forcing them to punt away their first possession. Both teams then three and outed before Northwestern managed to end the quarter with a field goal to take a 10 point lead on Wisconsin.

Offense:

I was heartened by the fact that all of Northwestern's running backs - Scott Concannon, Stephen Simmons, and Arby Fields - managed to make contributions to Northwestern's game today. At least Concannon and Fields will be back next year, and I am unsure if Simmons, a senior with another year of eligibility, will stay as well. Even if Simmons is gone, the competition between Concannon and Fields during camp next year will only be a positive for Northwestern. It is true that Northwestern runs a spread offense from the shotgun, but having versatile running backs to compliment the mobile QBs will always make the receivers more dangerous.

The second quarter was not quite as kind to the 'Cats. Wisconsin carried over their drive from the 1st and converted it into a John Clay touchdown. Northwestern managed to get the ball back for all of one play before it was fumbled away by Scott Concannon and recovered by Wisconsin. While I never like to see turnovers, I can't put too much heat on Concannon as he has been quite sure handed for most of the games this year. Wisconsin went to their tight end for a TD to give Bucky a four point lead.

Stephen Simmons then broke off a great 64 yard kick return to put the 'Cats within smelling distance of the Badger redzone. Mike Kafka rattled off several passes to Drake Dunsmore, Zeke Markshausen, Arby Fields, and Andrew Brewer to once again take the lead at 17-14. I was happy to see Kafka playing in a much more mobile and healthy way than in the last few games, and it was great for him to end his last regular season on a winning note. Hopefully he can cap off his time at Northwestern with a bowl victory in a few weeks.

Northwestern's defense three and outed the Badgers and then on their next drive Kafka executed a great end-around pass to Markshausen who pitched it downfield to a wiiide open Sidney Stewart. The ball was perfectly thrown and took advantage of the Wisconsin secondary, which isn't exactly the most dominant in the Big 10.

Northwestern regained their 10 point lead 24-14 and never really looked back. Stefan Demos once again looked his automatic self and tacked on three more field goals for the remainder of the 'Cats 33 points.

Defense:

The final score of today's game really doesn't do the defense justice. Yes, the 'Cats let Bucky come unacceptably close to a comeback win, but the defense played a good game for all 60 minutes. Three different Wildcats had sacks - Brad Phillips, Corey Wootton, and Vince Browne. The 'Cats managed to hold John Clay to only 102 yards rushing and 1 TD, which is pretty good considering he's the best RB in the conference. They also managed to step up in the crucial moments, forcing two turnovers during the forth quarter. Brian Peters recovered a clay fumble, and Jordan Mabin ended the late Badger threat with a great interception of Tolzien in the final seconds.

All in all, a good way to end the season. I think with a healthy Kafka the Wildcats will be very competitive come bowl time, and I'm looking forward to a great Champs Sports Bowl match up.

Go U! NU!

Wisconsin:

Now, I'll let my slightly more depressed dairy state side take over. This really was a trap game for my Badgers. While they were coming off three wins, Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan aren't exactly formidable competition this year. Northwestern is a deceptive team who had only been getting better as the season has gone on. It seemed that the Badgers were in danger of looking past both Northwestern and Hawaii towards the bowl season, and I think that's just what they did.

The Badgers simply played sloppy football, and it cost them the game.

Offense:

The one bright spot on the white and red side of the ball was the offense. The Badgers executed a balanced gameplan that got more dangerous as the game went on. Yes, they started off slowly, but Clay managed another triple digit ground game with a score, and Scott Tolzien threw for 235 yards and 2 TDs - both to the newly full strength Garrett Graham. Nick Toon also showed why he's going to be a big threat for years to come, as he had 7 catches for 70 yards, a nice follow up to his 98 yard game at Michigan. I don't know that he will ever live up to his father's stats, but he is definitely a solid part of the Badger offense and has a good chance to be their top receiver for the next year or two.

For all his inconsistency this year, Tolzien had a solid game, throwing only one interception in the closing seconds on a last ditch effort to move the Badgers downfield. For someone who was presumed to be a career backup at best, this season has been a good one and I'm looking forward to next year. Wisconsin finally has a quarterback who can make both the short quick throws and the deep passes. I'd like to see a win against Hawaii and a bowl victory to cap off his first starting season... regardless of what happens in the next few weeks, the competition between him and Curt Phillips will make for an interesting camp next year.

Defense:

Unfortunately, this was not one of the defense's better efforts. They allowed the most points they have all season, even more than they did to Ohio State, and even my other half would agree that the 'Cats are most certainly not the Buckeyes. Frankly, the Wisconsin defense was just not equipped to handle the Northwestern spread. The secondary is the weakest part of the defense and it showed. Kafka burned the Wisconsin defense for 326 yards passing and 2 TDs. The defense also looked completely fooled by the end around to Zeke Markshausen... he's a receiver for goodness sakes! He shouldn't be able to throw a TD! Gah.

This was also only the third game of the entire season in which the Badgers had no interceptions (the other two were against Northern Illinois and Iowa). They did have one fumble recovery, but lost the turnover battle overall. Still.... this is a young unit and can only really get better next year. I just hope we don't draw a spread based team in a bowl game, or it could get ugly.

Special Teams:

Once again, the special teams was a Jekyll and Hyde unit. Two separate returns best show this.

In the second quarter, Isaac Anderson inexplicably picked up a kickoff in the end zone and ran the ball out... to the 5. Ugh. Wisconsin managed to get the ball out to their 18, but the resulting punt gave Northwestern great field position near midfield, and the Wildcats would convert that into a field goal. Sigh.

In the third quarter, though, the special teams partially managed to redeem themselves when David Gilreath returned a a punt 68 yards for a TD which pulled Wisconsin within 3 of Northwestern.

The kick coverage today was similarly mediocre. Northwestern managed one 60+ yard return and several 30 yard returns. Their shortest return was for 12 yards after a Welch field goal. That's not really a dominating performance.

The interesting thing about this game is that both Northwestern and Wisconsin have ST units coached by the head coaches. Northwestern, for the most part, manages to do it right. They constantly execute good returns and usually do not make stupid mistakes. Wisconsin, by contrast, is prone to such mistakes and to sloppily executed tackling on their return coverage. Simply put, as long as Bielema is still coaching that unit, you never know what you're going to get. Until he finally gets a full time coach, it will always be the Achilles heel of this squad. It is long past time for that change to happen.

Disappointing as all that was, I must give credit to the Badgers for not giving up. They fought hard and pulled within two points, taking the game down to the final seconds. They can still end the season strong in Hawaii, and a bowl victory would prove that an excess of youth does not necessarily spell doom in the NCAA. In truth, they can only get better from here.

So...

On to Hawaii, On to the regular season finale, and ON WISCONSIN!!!!

This isn't going away anytime soon.

Rodger Sherman — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:44:26 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Last name Ever. First name Greatest.

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I'm still letting this one sink in.

It's not every year you even get to play a top five ranked team, let alone beat one. I mean, at NU, it's not every half-century you beat a top five ranked team.

So, just enjoy this. Take all your nonsense about "this season is still kind of disappointing" and "oh, but the refs jobbed Iowa!" (yes, they did) "but Stanzi got hurt!" (first off. kid threw a pick too. and four in a quarter last week. maybe he hits djk on that long ball, but, the dude's not johnny friggin unitas. and second off, every team deals with injuries. we're dealing with them too!) and just take a few seconds, minutes, or hours to think about how great that win was for NU.

That win took a team that looked questionable for bowl season and essentially made them a lock for a postseason bid. If you ask people around NU what their goal is going into every season, I bet they'd say "to win a bowl game." Our program, as you know, has only been to back-to-back bowls once, and only won a bowl game once, and that was before my parents were alive. Either of those things happening would, in my opinion, make this a historic/successful season. This game probably doubled NU's chances at doing both of those things. Think about that for a second.

In fact, think about it the entire time I break down things that went well yesterday.

Our defense. Back. I mean, going into this season, we talked about our defense being an elite unit. And the team that played yesterday - with every starter except Brendan Smith on the field - fit that description: they didn't allow a single sustained drive for points all game long, they forced four - four! - turnovers.
I'm not a fan of hyperbole. (Actually, screw that, I am.) But I honestly don't think it's hyperbolic to call Wootton's strip-and-maim one of the most important plays in NU history. NU historians, if you can disagree with that statement, go ahead, I know I'm not as versed in Wildcats history as I should be. But without that play, we don't win that game. And without that game, well, this is a mediocre season at best. What Ferentz is thinking running a designed naked bootleg at our favorite formerly-formerly dynamic defensive end, I have no idea. But Wootton looked like that guy we knew not just on that one play, but all day: he's got more explosiveness than he had up till this week. He's back.
A boring but effective thing to do in this post is just listing defenders who played excessively well yesterday: Nate Williams, David Arnold (those two dudes were literally making tackles EVERYWHERE), Quentin Davie, Marshall Thomas (apparently, the reason he's been playing all year is because he's really great at hopping on fumbles), well, our whole d-line, subs and starters, Sherrick McManis and Jordan Mabin (let's not talk about the DJK touchdown), Brad Phillips. Applause, all around. The d-line was able to shut down the rush - not totally surprising against a team that was missing it's top 8 running backs - but the pass pressure was something we haven't seen all year. And neither Stanzi nor Vandenberg could settle in, or, for that matter, complete anything.
Mike Kafka cemented his place in our respective memories with the Minnesota game last year, and Persa, regardless of what the future holds (and I'm officially no longer scared), did that yesterday. Great game. Outside of the one ugly pass that got picked, he looked effective passing the ball, and, well, he's faster than Kafka. (less elusive, but faster. Both great runners.) I was not expecting that. Again, applause.
There's some serious slurpage going on here, but Mike Kafka also had a cojones performance. I mean, to come back in after looking suspect at best (both passing and not being able to move) in the beginning and then just running things after Persa's injury.
Scott Concannon. What? Where did this guy come from? He looked bad in the Towson game, then got a concussion, and then all of a sudden he comes back as a great runner against Indiana. I like his style: he's really good at waiting for his blockers to open up a hole where others might just try to plow through with speed, where Concannon knows his best option is to take it slow, see things develop, and then maybe just barely elude a hit. Only 60-odd yards on the day for him, but, damn, the guy doesn't go down unless you really hit him.
And I think who you credit with Concannon's success that he didn't have earlier in the year, and Persa's being able to run with no pretense of passing (something that never happened when he came in to spell Kafka and got stuffed for gains of one or two earlier in the year) is our offensive line. Another unit that was supposed to be decent coming into the year and then looked they couldn't open up a hole for Adrian Peterson. But yesterday, they were getting a major push against Iowa's d-line - Iowa's d-line! Yeah, they weren't great at pass protection, but when Persa came in, that sorta stopped mattering.
I think Stefan Demos could hit a 83 yarder. Just sayin.

So, yeah, I'm still too pumped to write something actually analytical, in case you couldn't tell.

Oh, yeah, and who's coming to Champaign next weekend?

Preview: Michigan State vs. Northwestern

LVS — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 20:36:02 -0000

[Sorry for the delayed posting. --LVS.]

Hey! Let's celebrate a big comeback which ended up meaning absolutely nothing in one of the worst MSU football seasons ever!

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN
NOON, ESPN2
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY, 42-45 DEGREES

After a tremendously disappointing start to the season, in the last two weeks your Spartans have effectively turned things around, and at least left open the possibility for this to become a successful season. What the 3-game losing streak does mean, though, is that there is no more margin for error, and a game like Saturday's -- at home, against a less-talented team -- has gone from "should win" to "must win," lest our rehabilitated 3-3 record become 3-5 by next Saturday night. Northwestern has had quite a bit of success recently in East Lansing; they've won the last two, including a game in 2007 which stands as our poorest performance under Mark Dantonio. Our upperclassmen will remember that game too clearly to be looking ahead to Iowa. The line on this game, I believe, currently has MSU giving 12.5 points; I think that's awfully generous, but for our purposes, fortunately, beating Northwestern is more important than beating the spread. While we may not do the latter, we will do the former.

NORTHWESTERN SO FAR:

1 blowout against an overmatched 1-AA opponent (Towson);
1 very close call against an overmatched 1-A opponent (Eastern Michigan);
1 sleepwalk-type win against an overmatched 1-A opponent (Miami);
1 halfway-decent road win (but against a team which seems to find new, heartwrenching ways to lose each week -- Purdue);
1 home loss to Minnesota, an understandable defeat to a team that's roughly equivalent to MSU in talent;
1 completely inexcusable close road loss to Syracuse (Syracuse!).

Normally, it'd be difficult to say that a 4-2 record for Northwestern is disappointing, but LTP certainly is, and with some justification:

On the heels of our 9-3 2008 season buoyed by a stellar D, all signs pointed to the best D since 1995 and it has been an adventure to say the least. Our O-line was expected to be the strength of the offense with question marks at the skill positions. Mike Kafka has been a pleasant surprise with his passing and our WR corps is stellar, yet we lack a true Dell or Cunningham-like gamebreaker. Our line play has been weak and our rushing game non-existent. Essentially everything we thought would be great is not and almost vice versa. 5-1 was what we expected as a realistic worst case scenario as fans through those soft 6 games. It has been disappointing to say the least.

Still, 4-2 after 6 games certainly puts Northwestern in a position to play in a good bowl if they're able to pick up a key win or two from here forward. Presumably, Saturday would be one of the games they've circled on their calendar; despite the rough start, this is not a team that has reason to throw in the towel.

Mein bratwurst has a first name, it's "Zeke," mein bratwurst has a second name, it's "Markshausen" . . .

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: . . . hold onto your hat; Northwestern is going to want to play fast. The Wildcats ran 93 offensive plays against MSU last season, and will frequently forego huddling up between snaps. In that regard, it's fortunate that we've already played Michigan: while the offenses aren't exactly the same (Northwestern's much more of a passing team than Michigan is), the Wolverines' frequent no-huddle drives should have prepared us for the pace NU would like to play at.

Northwestern's run game has been a disappointment. Take it away, LTP:

We've stunk. The original starter Stephen Simmons has been out most of the season with an injury and true frosh Arby Fields early-on appeared to be the guy who would get the ball and become our next 4-year RB. However, our line has been horrid and our RBs have yet to show they can elude defenders. Jacob Schmidt, a short yardage back and walk-on turned schollie this year is a feisty guy, but good for 3rd and 2 and not much more. He's got great hands and turned heads with an amazing catch last week though. I can't remember our run game being so much of a detriment.

Sippin' on Purple reports that Simmons is listed first on the NU depth chart for Saturday, so they "might actually see some semblance of a running game this week." Simmons certainly seems to be an improvement over the other options:

RUSHING	GP	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Fields, Arby	6	53	210	20	190	3.6	4	25	31.7
Schmidt, Jacob	6	45	161	2	159	3.5	1	13	26.5
Simmons, Stephen	3	33	153	0	153	4.6	2	14	51.0

Limited sample size, of course, but compared to the other two, Simmons has picked up an extra yard per carry. Furthermore, QB Mike Kafka is a threat with his feet; he has 229 positive rushing yards through 6 games, and exploded into the Big Ten consciousness with a 217 yard (!) rushing effort at Minnesota last year. He's obviously reined in the rushing a bit so far this year, but given MSU's historic difficulties with rushing quarterbacks, I wouldn't be shocked to see some designed keeper plays.

Kafka's been more average passing the ball: he's currently 8th in the conference in passing efficiency (130.04, well behind Kirk Cousins' 141.81, and against lesser competition, of course), and is completing 67% of his passes, with 5 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. LTP says that Kafka "has a great arm, yet we never stretch the field and really go deep"; in my mind, that reinforces the perception that Northwestern is a team which lives and dies on the short passing game. We had tons of trouble with that type of attack against CMU, but we seemed to learn from those mistakes against Michigan.

Not surprisingly, NU's wideouts don't seem to be the deep-threat type: the top receiver is Zeke Markshausen (but can he catch frisbees in his mouth?), who has 34 catches, but for only 348 yards (10.2 average) and no touchdowns. He's not big (5'11", 185), nor fast, and he is white and a walk-on, so I believe he fully qualifies to be called "gritty" and "Welker/Chrebet-like." Drake Dunsmore (sounds like he should be sailing off of Cape Cod, no?) is the second leading receiver, and has remarkably similar numbers: 25 catches for 270 yards (10.8 average) and one touchdown. He's bigger, though: 6'3", 235. LTP also says to keep your eyes on . . .

I think Sidney Stewart might be our biggest threat (had 7 rec last year vs Sparty mostly when game was out of hand). However, I'm a big fan of Jeravin Matthews a tweener WR/RB whoseemingly makes big things happen on every touch ,yet we don't use him NEARLY enough.

. . . so, yeah. Pay attention to those guys, too.

For our defense, expect to see us play a slew of different linebackers, in an attempt to keep fresh through Northwestern's breakneck pace. Chris Norman figures heavily in the plans:

Because the Spartans are expecting more of the same, players such as true freshman outside linebacker Chris Norman better plan to have an expanded role. [ . . . ]

"The other reason is we’re going to have to play multiple people. One of Northwestern’s goals is to wear you down. But when we have athletes like Chris, who can give guys like (starter Brandon) Denson a break, we’re going to use that."

Norman already has one start, against Notre Dame, to his credit, but only six tackles. Junior Jon Misch, who backs up Eric Gordon on the other side, also figures into Tressel’s plans.

Also worth noting: NU has allowed 14 sacks through 6 games against poor competition. Their offensive line is not good. We have 10 in the past two games. We could easily make that 15 or 16 through three games by tomorrow night.

YTMND.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins is your quarterback and Larry Caper is your running back. Sounds pretty nice, eh?

LTP says that the Northwestern secondary is the team's best unit:

Our secondary was banged up and still is. It is our strongest unit though. Sherrick McManis has made some incredible picks and is finally at the lockdown mode we expected him to be after missing a couple of games due to injury. Safety Brendan Smith left last week's game, but his replacement, Brian Peters played extremely well. Jordan Mabin at the other corner is the real deal and can hit hard and Brad Phillips has been up and down, but seemst to have regained his '08 form. It is a solid unit when healthy.

. . . but statistics seem to show that they're a very average unit, albeit one that forces a lot of turnovers. They've been giving up 218 yards per game so far this season (almost 12 yards per completion), and have allowed 10 touchdown passes. But, they do have 10 interceptions, including 3 in the past 3 games for the aforementioned Sherrick McManis (who got the fluffy treatment from Teddy Greenstein in yesterday's Chicago Tribune). I'll suggest the same thing that I did before the Michigan game:

But as to the ~~Donovan Warren~~ Sherrick McManis thing: yeah, given our depth at wide receiver, we should just write off whomever he's covering and go elsewhere.

Furthermore, LTP said that Northwestern is already worried about the deep threat posed by Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham (and I'll throw in Keshawn Martin for good measure); this can't help:

The degree of difficulty increased for Northwestern on Thursday night with the announcement that veteran starting safety Brendan Smith will not play at Michigan State because of a thumb injury.

Smith -- one of only eight players in NU history to be named a co-captain in repeat seasons -- has started 38 games, including the last 19. He also is the leading punt returner for the Cats with an average of 6.6 yards, fourth best in the Big Ten.

With Smith out, Brian Peters will likely make the third start of his career.

Yeah, let's try to take some shots downfield, plz.

Against the rush, Northwestern has been better: they've allowed 716 yards through six games (119 per game), and only 3.48 yards per carry. So, this shouldn't be like it was against Illinois, where (at least in the first half, when we were making a full effort) we could hand the ball off and pretty much be guaranteed somewhere between 6-8 yards. This should be a better test for the offensive line, and for Larry Caper; if we can get solid contributions from the running game, 1) we're going to win this game, and 2) it portends good things for next week, when Iowa will be an even sterner test.

Finally, even though Corey Wootton has been more or less a non-factor so far this year, Northwestern still has 19 sacks on the season, including 4 for linebacker Quentin Davie, and 2 each for LB David Arnold, safety Brad Phillips, and defensive linemen Vince Browne, Corbin Bryant, and Kevin Watt. (The substantial number of sacks from the linebackers and secondary suggest a blitz-happy defense.) We lead the league with only six sacks allowed, and this would be a good week to keep that up, given the Cousins' slight remaining injury, Nichol's injury, and the desire not to burn Andrew Maxwell's redshirt. Honestly, I think we should be all right: the only two players who have really hurt us consistently on the rush are O'Brien Schofield and Brandon Graham, and they're the two best defensive linemen in the conference. If Wootton was healthy, he'd be in that class too, but nothing suggests that he'll be a major threat on Saturday.

THE OBLIGATORY PREDICTION: Wherein I cheat by posting something that I've already written!

The team's play has improved, and Kirk Cousins' return should be a major spark for the team. One thing you didn't mention that may be a factor: I understand that NU's offensive line has been a problem, and that plays right into our hands. MSU had 10 sacks and 18 TFLs against Michigan and Illinois, and the interior of our defensive line has been blasting into the backfield right on the snap.

Honestly, I'm shocked that the line on this game is this high. Everyone remembers what happened the last time NU came to East Lansing, so I'm sure the team and the coaching staff aren't going to be looking past this game. (Many fans, on the other hand, may already have moved their thoughts onto the Iowa game, so the stadium atmosphere may be somewhat lacking.) I think it should be an entertaining game, like most in this series have been, but our defense has really stepped up the past two weeks and I think that trend will continue. 27-17, MSU.

Your thoughts?

Conversations with the Enemy: Talking Northwestern with Lake The Posts

LVS — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 16:12:54 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

2 months ago: Northwestern's Corbin Bryant, right, sacks Minnesota quarterback Adam Webber during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game in Evanston, Ill., Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009.(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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I traded a few questions about Saturday's game with Lake The Posts, the original (but no longer only!) Northwestern football blog. My answers to his questions will be posted on his site shortly.

Below, I'm in bold:

Despite its 4-2 record, Northwestern hasn't been receiving a whole lot of accolades for its performance in the first half of the season. The Wildcats lost to Syracuse, barely scraped by against Eastern Michigan, and didn't get the blowout most expected against Miami last week, but the win at Purdue clearly was huge for the team's bowl hopes. Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the first half of the NU's season?

I'm not. Most of Wildcat Nation is not. We were missing four defensive starters in the Syracuse team and our lack of depth showed immensely. This has been the most bizarro season since 2001 at Northwestern. On the heels of our 9-3 2008 season buoyed by a stellar D, all signs pointed to the best D since 1995 and it has been an adventure to say the least. Our O-line was expected to be the strength of the offense with question marks at the skill positions. Mike Kafka has been a pleasant surprise with his passing and our WR corps is stellar, yet we lack a true Dell or Cunningham-like gamebreaker. Our line play has been weak and our rushing game non-existent. Essentially everything we thought would be great is not and almost vice versa. 5-1 was what we expected as a realistic worst case scenario as fans through those soft 6 games. It has been disappointing to say the least.

More, after the jump.

Corey Wootton was expected to be one of the best defensive performers in the conference, but many have said that it looks like he's still being hampered by his ACL problems. How has he looked this season, and how important is his play to your defense?

He hasn't been much of a factor. We all feel for the kid as he was a terrorizing gamechanger last season, and he played one series last week due to an ankle injury. When he was "healthy" he simply has seemed tentative. He's clearly not "back". He did draw some early season double-teams, but he's not the All-American he was expected to be. Not even close.

When most non-Northwestern fans last noticed Mike Kafka, he was busy rushing for about 874 yards in your wild win at the Metrodome last year. Is he still a major running threat? More generally, what can we expect to see from Kafka? ( . . .resisting the urge to make obvious literary jokes . . . )

Great question. Fans have been squawking about our lack of using Kafka as the RB. He's the best short yardage "back" we have, yet we're rotating a slew of RBs who haven't made much of a difference. We're at a loss as NU ALWAYS has a stellar RB. Mike has a great arm, yet we never stretch the field and really go deep which I believe hampers our rushing attack. You can expect to see 40+ passes from him and when he's on - watch-out. He makes much better decisions than CJ [Bacher --ed.] did, but he does tend to hold on to the ball a tad too long. He's slowly been running more each week. Most of us would be happy to have him throw 50+ this week and rush 10-12 times.

Northwestern, like MSU, has had to rework its running game this season after graduating a multi-year starter at tailback. It seems like NU has taken the running-back-by-committee approach, and statistics indicate that
the results have been fairly meh. Is that the case?

You're being generous. We've stunk. The original starter Stephen Simmons has been out most of the season with an injury and true frosh Arby Fields early-on appeared to be the guy who would get the ball and become our next 4-year RB. However, our line has been horrid and our RBs have yet to show they can elude defenders. Jacob Schmidt, a short yardage back and walk-on turned schollie this year is a feisty guy, but good for 3rd and 2 and not much more. He's got great hands and turned heads with an amazing catch last week though. I can't remember our run game being so much of a detriment.

Unlike in previous years, the current MSU offense is built around the passing game, and we've been fairly successful at it this season. How has the Northwestern secondary looked so far?

Our secondary was banged up and still is. It is our strongest unit though. Sherrick McManis has made some incredible picks and is finally at the lockdown mode we expected him to be after missing a couple of games due to injury. Safety Brendan Smith left last week's game, but his replacement, Brian Peters played extremely well. Jordan Mabin at the other corner is the real deal and can hit hard and Brad Phillips has been up and down, but seemst to have regained his '08 form. It is a solid unit when healthy. We've had a slew of INTs and fumble-inducing hits in the past two weeks and the 'Cats will need to win the TO margin game to beat Sparty in my mind.

Is there anyone on either side of the ball for Northwestern who MSU fans probably aren't aware of, but should keep an eye on?

Zeke Markshausen - a walk-on WR turned scholarship guy has become our clutch receiver. He's been fantastic. As mentioned, we've got 6-7 WRs that are solid. I think Sidney Stewart might be our biggest threat (had 7 rec last year vs Sparty mostly when game was out of hand). However, I'm a big fan of Jeravin Matthews a tweener WR/RB who
seemingly makes big things happen on every touch ,yet we don't use him NEARLY enough.

Finally, your score prediction please:

Michigan State 30 NU 24 - As usual, this one comes down to who has the ball last...

Thanks, LTP, and for the next three days, I hate you!

Sippin' on Purple goes 0-1: the recap

Rodger Sherman — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 01:22:32 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

That's a lineman, a linebacker, and a cornerback, and some other guy trying to tackle one running back. They probably didn't. Welcome to Northwestern football. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Browse more photos »

Gah.

We're not who we thought we were. This isn't a nine win team, this isn't an eight win team, this is a mediocre at best team. We were fooled into thinking this would be a good team by what seemed like an extremely talented defense, but if anything, our offense without any returning skill players has been carrying us through our four game season. You can't be angry at them for underperforming - this team just isn't as good as we thought they'd be, and we have to reconfigure our hopes for this season accordingly.

First, the positives:

We criticized the offensive playcalling in the first two weeks because it was sooooooooooo boring, but it's been fantastic the past two weeks. Our pass plays are crisp, perfectly executed, and get about six yards a completion at the least, our rush plays are good pace changers, and we take sufficient risks to keep the defense off-guard - see the deep pass to Sid Stewart across the middle Kafka left just a little to long and the Brendan Mitchell touchdown grab on fourth and short.
With Stephen Simmons, we might actually have a pretty sweet offense: Kafka and the receivers are clearly on the same page, and the other backs have been good in short bursts. And pretty much every receiver besides Brewer had a career day today, so there's that.
Sherrick McManis actually did return our secondary to decency, holding Weber to 186 yards and picking him off. Eric Decker only picked up 89 yards - actually not bad after what we saw from Mike Williams - although he was inexcusably being given like a 20 yard cushion by Jordan Mabin on his first touchdown. Pretty reasonable, all things considered.
I spent the afternoon as an "o" in a chest-painting line that said "WOOOT-TANG CLAN", an homage to Corey Wootton and my favorite rap group. (I downloaded an Inspectah Deck album the other day. Yeah, I'm hardcore.) Surprisingly, considering how much I write about rap, I wasn't the one who suggested we paint our chests that, but I was really glad we did. On the flip side, the amount of paint on my hands and the fact that I figured nobody was commenting because everybody was at the game prevented me from checking the website on my iPhone, so I wasn't even around for the game thread. (Luckily, nobody commented anyway - that will change next week. Or else.)
The scoreboard operator is really optimistic. He put up scores of "Wildcats 7, Minnesota 3" (it was the other way around) after the first quarter, and, somehow, "Wildcats 38, Minnesota 21" after Brendan Mitchell's touchdown that actually made the score 24-21.

Now, the longer list: negatives.

Run plays are supposed to be conservative, but when you give up 4-6 yards every time the opponent runs the ball up the middle, not so much. First off, the holes Minnesota's offensive line was opening up were big enough to fit a small Mack truck or a large hippo into. Then, when guys got to the running back - be it Duane Bennett or Kevin Whaley or any person wearing red and yellow - was good for a spin move out of a tackle and then good to ride a linebacker for about two yards. The tackling we've witnessed on this team is abhorrent. It's a team-wide epidemic, and it's not the type of thing that seems fixable, and it's not the type of thing you can win football games with.
I forgot how depressing Ryan Field is. Jeez. Don't get me wrong, the student section is awesome, 5,000 people pumped and really into the game - but looking out onto the rest of the field is hurtful.
Did I mention how bad our run defense is? It's even worse than I made it sound.
Mike Kafka only threw one pick, but there were some more that were easy picks for defenders that they flubbed. His decision making was pretty good throughout the game, and it's clear to me he's a good passer - it's just one in every 30 throws he uncorks a throw that you wouldn't expect in a co-rec IM game. Also, when Kafka does run with it - which seems few and far between now, and that's not necessarily a bad thing - he seems much less explosive than he was last year. He couldn't outrun DT's today and when you're slower than DT's, you're going to get sacked and pick up intentional grounding penalties. Not sure why, but he seems slower than last year.
Did I mention the run defense? It was that bad.
I'm starting to think maybe Andrew Brewer should return punts? Not that Smith has been bad in his career, but methinks he's caught a bad case of the dropsy.

So that's that. What we need to do is forget about what we wrote and read back at the beginning of the year and remember that we can still enjoy this season if we give the Cats more reasonable expectations. I'll get at you guys tomorrow.

Know thy Opponent 2009: Northwestern Wildcats

BoilerTMill — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 16:23:45 -0000

Under coach Tiller, beating Northwestern and winning our homecoming game were each regular affairs. It was only late in his tenure that we finally lost a homecoming game (2004 against Wisconsin) and a game against the Wildcats (the 2005 disaster). It is not necessarily a sign of our decline that we started losing games to Northwestern, as the Cats have become a solid team. Last season's effort, or lack thereof, however, was a sign of how far we have fallen.

On paper, both teams were relatively equal going into last season's game. What followed was one of the most uninspired days of Purdue football in the last 15 years. We dropped passes. We missed tackles. We missed assignments. The only thing we did was run the ball effectively, as we wasted a 170+ yard, two touchdown effort from Kory Sheets. I don't have a problem losing a game to a good team like Northwestern. I do have a problem when we get blown out because of lack of interest.

That game was really the one that sealed our losing season. Losses to Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Oregon were tough, but not unexpected. Not only did we lose at Northwestern in a game many thought would be a win, we lost badly. This season's contest could be equally important the other way. Likely we're going to be coming in at 2-2. Anything worse and it is already over. Anything better, and we will have pulled off a pretty major upset. At 2-2, however, the Northwestern game will be a must win to have any bowl hopes.

2008 Record: 9-4

Bowl result: Lost to Missouri 30-23 OT in Alamo Bowl

Blog Representation: Lake the Posts

Series with Purdue: Purdue leads 49-26-1

Last Purdue win: 10/27/07 at Purdue 35-17

Last Northwestern win: 10/18/08 at Northwestern 48-26

Last Season for the Wildcats:

If not for a shocking loss to Indiana, the Wildcats probably would have played in a New Year's Day Bowl. The Wildcats won all of their non-conference games for the first time in more than four decades and finished 5-3 in the Big Ten. Aside from the Indiana loss, the other three losses were to ranked teams in Michigan State, Ohio State, and Missouri. The conference losses weren't that competitive against Michigan State and Ohio State, but the Alamo Bowl loss to Missouri was an exciting game decided in overtime.

Northwestern loses some playmakers on offense, but there is enough talent to ward off a huge step back like has happened in the past. A relatively easy slate of Towson, Eastern Michigan, at Syracuse, and Minnesota leads off the schedule before they come to Purdue. Northwestern is this year's lucky recipient of the Big Ten's schedule gift, missing Michigan and Ohio State for the next two seasons. Their two toughest games are at Michigan State and at home against Penn State. Indiana is sandwiched between those two.

Northwestern offense:

The Northwestern offense faces the same challenge that we must face in having to replace its top quarterback and top running back. Tyrell Sutton ran for 890 yards and six touchdowns last year while C.J. Bacher threw for 2,432 yards and 17 scores. Sutton missed the final four games of the regular season, while Bacher missed the Minnesota and Ohio State games. That leaves Mike Kafka as the leading returner in both the rushing and passing categories.

Kafka is a lot like Joey Elliott in that he has waited his turn to play as the full-time starter. Unlike Elliott, he has starting experience. Not only did Kafka start both games that Bacher missed last season, He started the first four games of the 2006 season before injury. He had 505 yards passing and a touchdown against five interceptions in 2006, but was much better in both games in 2008. Against Minnesota he only threw for 143 yards and two touchdowns against two picks, but his running was the story of that contest. He ran for a school record (for a quarterback) 217 yards in a game that was decided by a late pick six. He finished with 321 yards on the ground, and as Lake the Posts said Monday, he may be a better decision maker than Bacher. For Northwestern to have a successful season he must improve on his career 3 to 8 touchdown-interception ratio.

Mike Kafka is a threat on the ground, but he will need to improve his passing accuracy in 2009.

Stephen Simmons will likely step in as the top running back, replacing Sutton and Omar Conteh. Simmons ran for 178 yards and two touchdowns on 62 carries in 2008, so he has some experience. Simmons is a quick back, but had an ankle injury that limited him for most of the year. He is a junior, so he is experienced in the system. Alex Daniel and Jeravin Matthews should also see some time in the backfield.

Northwestern lost its top four receivers, much like us, when Sutton, Eric Peterman, Ross Lane, and Rasheed Ward all graduated. In their place are Andrew Brewer (18-145-0) and Jeremy Ebert (15-161-2) as the top two returning players statistically. Tight end Josh Rooks is also likely going to get involved in the offense more as a combination fullback/tight end. In Northwestern's offense the Wildcats like to spread the ball around to many different receivers. Demetrius Fields is a promising redshirt freshman with speed that will be one of many players that needs to step up.

The main thing that will help Northwestern's offense with so few returning playmakers is its offensive line. Four starters come back from a line that gave up 18 sacks and paved the way for 1,800 yards rushing. It is a young line too, with just one senior. Desmond Taylor, Doug Bartels, Al Netter, and Benn Burkett all return to a line that has every projected start under 300 pounds. That is very rare in the Big Ten, but it is helpful to Northwestern's hurry-up style of offense. They are a group more inclined to be athletic and quick rather than giant road-grinders. They really only need to give Kafka enough time to through and holes to run through.

Northwestern defense:

This will be Northwestern's strength, especially early on as so many new playmakers get used to the scheme. By game five they should be a pretty good unit that we might have some difficulty moving the ball against. I know I keep stressing the point, but we have to make a committed effort to stay with the running game. We ran well against Northwestern last season, and the first four teams we face (with the exception of Northern Illinois) are better against the pass than the run.

Northwestern could struggle against the run again if defensive end Corey Wootton isn't fully healthy. Wootton had 10 sacks last season, but injured his knee in the Alamo Bowl against Missouri. He is a big defensive end at 6'7", 265 that is deceptively quick. He is the rock of the line, and at this time next year he will likely be making a lot of money in the NFL somewhere. The rest of the line could struggle if Wootton isn't 100%. Tackle John Gill, who had four sacks and 44 tackles overall, was lost to graduation. Corbin Bryant returns as a starter at the other tackle position, but Adam Hahn and sophomore end Vince Browne will be first-time starters along the line. This is a big defensive line with everyone over 6'4" and 270 pounds.

Quentin Davie is the only returning starting among the three linebackers, but with a former All-American linebacker as a head coach I doubt the Wildcats have unprepared players taking over. Davie was pretty good at getting into the backfield with 9.5 tackles for loss last season from the strongside position. Nate Williams will be the middle linebacker with starting experience from the second half of last year. He finished with 66 tackles and a sack despite not playing much in the first half of the season. Ben Johnson is a bit of an unknown player at the third linebacker spot. He only had 6 tackles as a cornerback last season, and will need more production at linebacker. Aaron Nagel, a Notre Dame transfer, will likely provide key depth.

Northwestern's secondary has nearly as much experience as our own, so it should be pretty good once again. Three seniors in Brad Phillips, Brendan Smith, and Sherrick McMannis will be joined by solid sophomore Jordan Mabin at the four defensive back positions. Phillips led Northwestern with 109 tackles and three interceptions. Smith had two interceptions, both of which he returned for touchdowns. One of those touchdowns was the game winner in the closing seconds at Minnesota. McManis will be their shutdown corner in his third year as a starter, and he may be one of the best in the Big Ten. This will be one of the better secondaries we will face all season, and it should do well enough to allow the front seven to play strong against the run.

Overall, Northwestern's defense wasn't very strong at creating turnovers...except against us. The Wildcats created 25 turnovers in 13 games, but five of those came from our very generous offense. That is a testament to just how badly we played in Evanston.

Northwestern Special Teams:

Northwestern must find a new kicker to replace Armondo Villarreal, who hit on 20 of 25 field goals last year but missed a crucial extra point in the bowl game. Punter Stefan Demos, who averaged 39 yards per kick, will try to pull double duty, but that is a tall task for any kicker as we found out last year with Chris Summers. Demos is excellent at dropping kicks inside the 20 with 49 such boots over the past two years, but he has yet to do field goals. Incoming freshman Jeff Budzien might be a better choice as a kicker. He is one of the top kicking prospects in the nation with a big leg.

Stephen Simmons was the top kick returner last season, but wasn't a huge threat with a 22.1 yard average. Brendan Smith was similar on punt returns with a 7.9 yard average. McManis should also see some work on returning kicks. Northwestern had one of the top kickoff coverage teams in the nation last year, holding teams to less than 19 yards per return.

Intangibles

To me, Coach Pat Fitzgerald is a highly underrated coach. He took over under the most difficult of circumstances at a place where academics always come before football and he has had quick success. The guy has an energy that few coaches can match, and I personally think that big time schools who think they can eventually lure him away from Northwestern are dreaming. The guy bleeds purple. He is beloved for his contributions as a player. He is a legend that I think will never leave his alma mater. Him leaving Northwestern would be as big of a betrayal as Matt Painter leaving our basketball program.

Game Outlook

Northwestern will likely take a slight step back this year. A huge reason for their success last season against us was that we played an absolutely pathetic game. We were disinterested and didn't take care of the ball. I don't think Coach Hope will let that happen again. If you even those things out, I think we can compete with Northwestern on a level playing field. If we're going to a bowl game in 2009 this is a game we likely need to win. It is critical that we win games at home that are winnable. This could be a very low scoring game as two inexperienced offenses will go against to experienced defenses. Turnovers will likely be the key, just as they have been in the last two games in this series. In 2007 Northwestern was sloppy with the ball in the first and fourth quarters, leading to a big win for us. The reverse was true last year and Northwestern won.

Prediction

I continue to press that this team will be better than most people think. In that case, we have to win games like the Northwestern game. I think the defense will have a big day against them and we will get a critical win for our bowl hopes. Purdue 20, Northwestern 14

Crossfire: Northwestern Q&A

RPT — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 15:30:05 -0000

This postseason edition of Crossfire allows us the chance to welcome our new friends from Lake the Posts, a veritable one-stop shop for all things Northwestern athletics.

RMN: First of all, what's the reaction been like to Northwestern's 9-win regular season? Did Northwestern fans expect this kind of output this year?

LTP: Extremely positive as you can imagine. I was banging the 8-4 drum all summer long and fellow Big Ten bloggers thought I was delusional. When you consider the injuries we suffered - star RB Tyrell Sutton out, his back-up Omar Conteh out, CJ Bacher out for 2 games - it truly is a remarkable season. The amazing part is most felt we would do it Mizzou style by simply outscoring opponents. We have a new OC with Mick McCall (Bowling Green) and a new DC/Savior with Mike Hankwitz. The offense underdelivered and the "D" overdelivered and essentially made the season. We're just getting used to this whole pass rush concept which was a joke in previous years.

RMN: How have fans reacted to the pairing with Missouri? What's the public perception of Missouri's program right now among Northwestern circles?

LTP: A collective gulp. I'm not going to lie to you, we'd much rather be playing South Carolina in the Outback or even Florida State in the Champs than a pissed off Big 12 team that won it's division in arguably the most dominating year a conference has had in memory. Missouri is very well respected and the speed of Jeremy Maclin combined with the experience of Chase Daniel presents a major challenge. Cats fans are on a mission to erase the "1st time since..." syndrome and the last of those (aside from winning at the Shoe) is winning a bowl game. This is our 6th bowl since 1995, but our last bowl win was in 1949.

Remaining questions after the jump...

RMN: It seems like most Missouri fans know the names Bacher, Kafka, and Sutton and not much else. Who in particular do Missouri fans need to become familiar with before Dec. 29?

LTP: The headliner is DE Corey Wootton. He is a sack machine and menace to all QBs. John Gill at DT is also a stalwart while S Brad Phillips is a ferocious hitter (he's knocked two players, including Big Ten MVP Shonn Greene out of games already this year). CB Sherrick McManis gets all the hype in the secondary, while freshman CB Jordan Mabin is underrated. The LB corps is a little thin thanks to injuries and our offensive line, the big question mark of the year has been a pleasant surprise in the pass rush protection department, but below average in run blocking.

RMN: How exactly is the Bacher-Kafka used? Is it a platoon system, or is Kafka's playing time a result of injuries? How much faith do you have in both guys?

LTP: It has been 100% injury related. Bacher went down with a hammy in the final drive against Indiana. Kafka started and played the next two games, and CJ returned for the final two against Michigan and Illinois. Bacher has been plagued with inconsistency as he is prone to throw picks, but has a new attitude of "I'm putting the team on my back." You can plan on seeing a healthy mix of both - a true platoon in the Alamo - as they are such different looks it will make you prepare essentially for two separate teams. The coaches completely wrap Kafka's throwing, but he showed great promise in the Minnesota game (sans one very bad pick 6). Faith in CJ was at new lows earlier this year, but his recent moxie has lifted many to believe again. Kafka is very well liked, but the lack of passing has caused fans to become irritable on 3rd and long situations.

RMN: What are the strengths of the Northwestern defense? How do you expect them to matchup with the Missouri offense?

LTP: The strength is chemistry. We may not have the most explosive athletes, but they are playing together in a way that we haven't seen since 95 & 96. We are weak against the deep ball to the non McManis side, but are very good at coming up with the big sack and pass rush. All you need to do is watch the game tape against our one common opponent, Illinois, to see what we've become. We do give up the big play a couple of times a game, but our "D" somehow manages to always stiffen and keep teams out of the end zone.

RMN: The blueprint for beating Missouri begins by manhandling Mizzou in the trenches. What kind of success do you expect out of Northwestern's offensive and defensive lines?

LTP: I like our D-line matchup against you, but our O-line, as mentioned is not so good with the run. Perhaps it is wishful Big Ten thinking but I believe the Illini are similar in the challenges you present. A dangerous deep ball threat (from a MUCH better QB than Juice) to stellar, speedy WRs and good hands, good sized TEs. I expect us to really be aggressive and create havoc for Chase, but I'm fearful of the deep ball to Jeremy Maclin. You know it's coming, but can we stop it. Yikes.

Thanks to LTP for the info. Our response to LTP's line of questioning can be found here. Make sure to head over to LTP to interact if you have any questions about NU football, and welcome those NU fans who find their way here to Rock M Nation.