"That puke, inside of a pumpkin orange"

Sam @ WWAHT — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 16:00:25 -0000

They low down, they dirty, they some snitches...*

I guess technically it's hate week. Illinois is, after all, one of our two main rivals (sorry Penn State) and we even have a dorky trophy to commemorate this "rivalry", in which Ohio State's all time record stands at 61-30-3, and in which the Buckeyes actually have more losses in the Shoe (18) than they do in Champaign (12). Yeah, it's a weird rivalry, characterized lately by weird games. Last year, Illinois outgained Ohio State by over 100 yards and still lost by ten. Ohio State won the game with just 49 yards through the air, 36 of which came on just three of OSU's ten attempted passes. The year before, Illinois capitalized on a blown fumble call, three picks from the previously unblemished Todd Boeckman and an agonizing final drive that took 8 minutes off the game clock and roughly ten years off my life.

Even in 2006, when Ohio State was rolling anyone and everyone in its path, the Fighting Illini sacked Troy Smith 3 times, held him without a passing touchdown for the first time all year, and forced him to throw just his third pick of the season in an uneven effort from the Buckeye squad, which ended up winning only 17-10. It was the closest anyone outside of Michigan would play them throughout the entire regular season.

2005 was largely unremarkable, save the final score: 40-2, the only Illini points coming off a blocked XP that was returned for a safety. So we know these games have a definite recent trend of overall weirdness, and many of them would serve as good fodder for Dr. Saturday's intriguing Life on the Margins series. Will this weekend be any different?

*(full disclosure: I don't hate Illinois. I don't think I could be more indifferent to a team. Ron Zook provides me with lulz when they're bad, and Juice Williams puts on a show when they're good. I almost like them.)

Well, there's no real reason to think so. As ridiculous as the Ohio State defense might be, this might be the best offense - when healthy and feeling like it - that it will play all year. The problem is, of course, that the Illini have yet to actually look like it

Date	Opponent	Surface	Result	Rush Yards	Pass Yards	Plays	Total Yards	Yards/Play
09/05/09	+ Missouri	Turf	L 9-37	110	215	72	325	4.5
09/12/09	Illinois St.	Turf	W 45-17	384	164	63	548	8.7
	Totals			494	379	135	873	6.5

And after putting up such relatively lackluster stats against a) a rebuilding outfit and b) an FCS school, there isn't really cause to believe the Illini are going to explode against an Ohio State defense that is giving up an average of 15 ppg. But in this series, it's difficult to rule much of anything out. In 2007, Juice Williams was coming off three straight games in which he had thrown at least one pick. He responded with four touchdowns and zero interceptions against a dumbfounded Ohio State secondary that would finish first in the nation in yards allowed. If there's one Buckeye defense that should have stopped the Illini, it was that one, and it just couldn't.

As much success as Williams has had against Ohio State, the Illini running game has done its part, totaling 474 yards in the last two games combined. It could be said that Illinois runs the one offense that Jim Heacock just can't figure out. Ohio State was fortunate enough to intercept Williams at a key point in the 2008 game, and with the running game exploding for 305 yards, the Buckeyes never felt threatened in the second half. This is the one thing that worries me about tomorrow's game; if Juice finally gets it going, like he always seems to against the Buckeyes, does Ohio State have a running attack that can slow the game's pace down a crawl?

Illinois runs the type of offense Jim Tressel just absolutely has to hate, because it's not a ball-control affair, and like Florida and LSU, can put points up in bunches against almost any defense that doesn't adjust immediately. It's Toledo with talent and speed, and a quarterback who can run against teams not named Colorado. I'd hate playing against it too.

So why, if the 2007 and 2008 units couldn't stop Illinois, should this one in 2009 be any different? Simple answer: speed. This might not be a particularly popular opinion, but I'm willing to place good money on Ross Homan, Brian Rolle and Austin Spitler being faster as a unit than James Laurinaitis, Marcus Freeman and Larry Grant. Brian Rolle especially is a speed demon who should have no serious problems tracking down Williams and the Illini running backs in the open field. Just watching the game against Toledo; it was rare that guys weren't at least in place to make the needed tackle, which is huge against teams that run this offense. A defensive clinic of similar proficiency will result in the Illini netting 14 points at the most.

Offensively, this game will be a good way to gauge Terrelle Pryor's progress purely as a passer. Illinois has one of the softest secondaries one could hope for in the early part of the season, and the fact that both of the Illini's interceptions have come against Illinois State makes me giddy. An arm punt here or there will be picked, sure, but I think Pryor will get a bit more leeway with his throws against the Illini than against other Big Ten secondaries, which will give the coaching staff a bit better of an idea of what he needs to work on.

I'm still waiting for Daniel Herron or Brandon Saine to have a breakout game. Really, if neither can get it together at this point, I can't help but conclude that they won't under these circumstances , and that the staff seriously needs to re-evaluate some schemes or get Jordan Hall some more reps. Illinois' rush defense has been decent, holding Mizzou and State to 2.8 yards a carry on the ground, but Mizzou is Mizzou and Illinois State is coached by Brock Spack, who brought basketball-on-grass to the quite little burg of Normal, Illinois. Neither will ever place the emphasis Ohio State does on pounding the rock, so the Buckeyes need to get something going early and often.

Five predictions that will make me look foolish come Monday :

- Juice throws at least one pick, and is held under 50 yards rushing

- Ohio State actively exploits the hole left by Martez Wilson's departure

- The running game continues to struggle, but Pryor's improvisational skills make it look a bit more respectable.

- Pryor throws at least one arm punt pick, to go with 3 or more touchdowns

- Final score: Ohio State 31, Illinois 13

SB Nation - Larry Grant

"That puke, inside of a pumpkin orange"

Five predictions that will make me look foolish come Monday :