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Preview: Michigan State vs. Penn State

LVS — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:20:02 -0000

about 1 month ago: Michigan State's Keshawn Martin (82) scores a touchdown on a 48-yard pass reception during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Western Michigan, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in East Lansing, Mich. Michigan State won 49-14. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

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Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN

3:30 (ET), ABC (coverage map)

WEATHER: 52 DEGREES AT KICKOFF, TEMPERATURE FALLING AFTER DUSK.

Hey, a game that's not the most important of the season! Your Spartans obviously did the heavy lifting last week against Purdue; in all likelihood, this game is not about whether MSU will make a bowl, but rather, about whether we're going to San Antonio or Orlando or, of course, rollin' down Woodward to Ford Field (!). Penn State, after a season that has to be characterized as quite disappointing, amazingly still has a shot at a BCS berth. You know the backstory: last season, PSU absolutely demolished us; the season before, however, was good times:

It appears that the play-by-play guy attended the Joe Buck school of announcing excitement. Also, I miss Devin Thomas.

So, here cometh TEH GREATEST RIVALRY GAME IN ALL TEH LAND, and the opportunity to beat a team with a pulse for the first time this season. (Says the guy whose team's best win is against Temple. w00t.) The 8-million member PSU blogosphere and commentariat seems surprisingly reticent about this game. But, after last week's defensive fiasco I'm simply not comfortable picking us to win against teams with competent offenses. Penn State is such a team. I'd love to be proven wrong.

More, after the jump.

Big game plz, Colin.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: At this point, I think the secondary is probably going to suck no matter what we do, so we might as well stack the box to try to stop the run and get as much pressure on Darryl Clark as possible. Indeed, as RUTS told us, this is what you want to do with Clark:

He's like about any other good, but not great, quarterback. If he has a clean pocket and can set his feet, he's as good as anyone in the country. If he gets hit too much, he gets rattled and starts making bad decisions with the ball. In that sense, he can be knocked back into looking like a talented quarterback in his second or third start -- he thinks he can make throws that he can't actually pull off.

Clark struggled mightily in the Iowa and Ohio State games--and even in the Illinois game--because he was under pressure (ding ding ding da da ding ding). Pressuring him may allow Clark some opportunities to scramble (as Brian said earlier this year, he's "not Michael Vick but isn't John Navarre, either."), but it's probably the best chance to contain the PSU offense. PSU partisans seem to think that our defensive line will have success against their offensive line, and pressure Clark heavily; I'm not so certain. Many anticipated that Penn State's offensive line was going to be the downfall of the team this year, as it was the most inexperienced group in the conference. PSU has allowed only 12 sacks on the season, although it looked overmatched against Adrian Clayborn and Cameron Heyward, among others. But, uh, we don't have Clayborn or Heyward; we've got a defensive line which failed to pressure Joey Elliott (until the last play, of course), and hasn't proven the ability to apply pressure on its own. My suspicion is that, if PSU is content to throw from three-step drops, they'll have a lot of success: we won't have the ability to get to Clark that quickly, and our secondary is obviously vulnerable. Bottom line: stack the box, try to get pressure, hope for the best.

And, about those guys Clark will be throwing to: RUTS sez . . .

Starting WR Chaz Powell is out for the game with a shoulder injury. In his place, you'll see a rotating group including the very tall Brett Brackett and the very quick Curtis Drake. Maybe true freshman Justin Brown gets in the game, but I doubt it. Graham Zug had a nightmare game against Indiana last week, but that was mostly due to fumbling punts. He runs good routes and gets open against passive zone coverages. Really, that goes for the whole group -- if you can press and bump them, they become ineffective quickly. [ . . . ]

Derek Moye is probably our best receiver, but he was totally shut out by Ohio State's press coverage and only had two catches for 28 yards against Indiana. Because of that, I suspect PSU will make an effort to get him involved quickly.

Moye is indeed good: 41 catches for 676 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. He's 6'5", 195 pounds . . . and if you're thinking, "holy hell, he's Mike Floyd in disguise," well, yeah, me too. He's not quite there, talent-wise, but, erm, I wouldn't want to be fighting for a jump ball against him. I suspect that our cornerbacks wouldn't want to be, either. And, yeah, about that Quarless guy: he reminds me a lot of Kellen Davis in that he's ludicrous athletically, but the results don't quite meet the expectations. But, the same could be said of Garrett Graham, and that didn't end so well for us earlier this year.

This is probably Evan Royster's last regular season game for Penn State, as most expect him to jump to the NFL.
Last year, he only carried the ball 12 times against MSU, but those carries were relatively successful, as he averaged 6.6 yards per game. This season, he's been a bit up-and-down: he had big games against Northwestern and Minnesota, but not-so-good efforts against Iowa and Ohio State. MSU's rush defense has been mostly a positive this season, although last week was a bit of a regression. I suspect that Royster will approach 100 yards but not be the deciding factor in this game. His backup, Stephfon Green, has intermittently battled injuries and hasn't played much or well since the Illinois game much earlier this season.

Safe to say at this point: one of my all-time favorite Spartan football players.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: . . . we need for Kirk Cousins to have the best game of his career. As a preliminary matter, let's stipulate that we're going to get basically nothing against Penn State on the ground: the Lions are 8th nationally against the run, and our rushing offense is not good. The goal in this game should be to do just enough to semi-effectively set up play action.

Ah, so the main event: MSU's passing offense vs. Penn State's pass defense. It starts wtih the offensive line, obviously. Penn State doesn't have Tamba Hali or Courtney Brown or anyone of similar fear-producing ability, but the stats are certainly there: they lead the conference in sacks, and while Brian noted that:

[t]he numbers are impressive—PSU is 11th nationally with three sacks per game—but there is the whole schedule thing to take into account. Jack Crawford has four sacks, all of which come against the Akrons and Temples on the schedule. In Penn State's three real-ish games, they acquired one sack (Odrick) against Minnesota, three (Crawford, Latimore, Stanley) against Illinois, and two (Hull and Crawford/Lynn) against Iowa.

. . . Penn State sacked Forcier/Robinson 5 times, and then, the next week, sacked Mike Kafka 6 times. Since then, things have cooled down a bit: they weren't able to sack Terrelle Pryor (although Pryor is surely one of the most difficult sacks in the country), and were only able to get to Ben Chappell twice last week. Nonetheless, this is an impressive line; they're led by scary beast Jared Odrick, who has 6 sacks, and the aforementioned Jack Crawford, who now has 5.5. RUTS says that:

Penn State loves to just send the defensive line if they can get away with it. The defensive scheme actually depends on it, but PSU's defensive ends have been several notches below their predecessors. There's no Aaron Maybin, Maurice Evans, or Tamba Hali on this defensive line, so they'll send linebackers on occasion, and maybe mix in a corner blitz once or twice per game, but that's it.

We can't let them get tons of pressure from the front four alone. I know it's tempting disaster to say that I *want* Navorro Bowman, Sean Lee, and the corners to blitz, but Penn State blitzing and leaving the secondary exposed is how Cousins will be able to throw for lots of yards.

Penn State's defense is statistically impressive against the pass: 16th nationally in pass efficiency defense, and 17th nationally in pass defense. Once again, I'll let RUTS write my preview for me:

Penn State can be thrown on, but they do their best to protect any obvious liabilities in the secondary. Free Safety Nick Sukay has steadily improved throughout the year. Drew Astorino (#28) plays the other safety position, and it's no secret that he's trying to fight through a shoulder injury. CB A.J. Wallace sustained a concussion last week, he's listed as "possible" for Sparty. So there may be opportunities for you in the passing game.

So, PSU is good, but they're not scary in the way that Iowa is: this season, the Lions have allowed 252 yards passing to Northwestern, 263 to Illinois (!), and 298 last week to Indiana. (Note that they won all three of those games, however.) Quite frankly, our passing offense is better than any of those teams'. I think Cousins has a big day, and throws for at least 250 yards; look for B.J. Cunningham to play the Devin Thomas role this time around. If he's able to deliver, Cousins stands in line for first team all-conference honors, so there should be some personal motivation, too.

FINAL PREDICTION: Cut and paste, for starters:

Clark picked our defense apart last year, and while you don't have Derrick Williams anymore, our pass defense is even worse this time around. Also, I have distressing visions of Jared Odrick pwning whoever's blocking him and not giving Cousins enough time to be comfortable.

More generally, Dantonio has done a lot of good things during his time at MSU, but beating teams with appreciably more talent certainly hasn't been one of those things. So, I'll remain skeptical until we finally win one of these games. It's at home, which is good, and I could definitely see the special teams stats ending up very lopsided in our favor. But PSU is the better team, and you're playing for more: a win for us would upgrade our bowl game slightly, but a win for PSU might send you guys to the BCS. So, an upset isn't out of the possibility, but I'm not particularly optimistic.

I wrote that yesterday morning, and honestly, I'm a bit more optimistic now. Penn State fans seem quite worried about this game, and one columnist even questions whether Penn State's players even have their hearts into the game anymore. Which, like, what? Even if that's true, you're playing for the BCS! I'd dismiss it out of hand if the sentiment didn't seem to be a common one across the PSU internets.

One thing that doesn't fit into my normal preview format: if you've been reading previews of this game anywhere else, you'll know that PSU's special teams have been an unmitigated disaster this year, and ours have been very good. I'm normally skeptical that special teams play has any predictive value, but here the discrepancy between the teams seems so great that it may indeed be relevant this week. Keshawn Martin, Brett Swenson, Aaron Bates: keep on doing what you do so well. kthx.

Nonetheless, this is a pretty talented football team we're playing. PSU is excellent on defense, and the offense -- with many of the same players -- ripped us apart last year. It seems that I'm saying this every week now, but truly, our defense will determine whether we win this game. If they show up, we have a chance. If they play like they did last week, we don't. It's awfully tempting to say that MSU wins this game on the strength of the passing game and special teams play. But, visions of Quarless and Zug running rampant across the middle of the field prevent me from tempting fate, for now. Penn State 31, Michigan State 27.

Your thoughts welcome, of course.

Grading the Penn State Offense Against Eastern Illinois

BSD — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 15:05:49 -0000

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

2 months ago: Penn State quarterback Kevin Newsome (12) runs for a gain through Eastern Illinois defenders Nathan Galan (95) and Sean Campbell (49) during the second half of their NCAA college football game in State College, Pa., Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009. Penn State won 52-3. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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You all get lucky today. My kid's soccer game got cancelled, so I watched the Penn State game. So you all get a review today. Let's get to it.

Quarterbacks

Daryll Clark was sensational completing 13 of 19 passes for 234 yards and 3 TD. But then I would be worried if he were anything less than sensational against Eastern Illinois. Other than being a little erratic in the redzone on Penn State's second possession, his lone mistake was the interception, and it was an ugly play. He recognized the blitz was coming and looked at Quarless for the short outlet. And he looked. And he looked. And he looked some more. Then I think he even pointed at Quarless and yelled, "Hey, I'm going to throw it there!" Then he threw it and it was intercepted. Let's try not to do that next time, mmmkay?

But let's talk about Mr. Newsome who saw his most extended action of the year. Saturday was more confirmation about some things we already suspected. Newsome is an electrifying runner. It seems like he can go from standing still to top speed in about two steps. And he's a big kid that's tough to bring down. I must admit, when I see him running in that No. 12 jersey, I see a lot of Michael Robinson. Having him in the backfield next year with Evan Royster and Stephfon Green with an experienced offensive line just might be unstoppable. That's the good part.

On the flip side, I saw something else that reminded me of Michael Robinson, but this isn't a good thing. Newsome has a long way to go in refining his mechanics. He throws off his back foot a lot, and he's a little partial to doing the sidearm wrist-flick-thing. And yes, I saw a lot of arm punts. The other thing that bothered me is the way he carries the ball. He had two fumbles in his short time on the field, and there were a few other carries where he let ball separate from his body leaving him susceptible to another fumble. Just looking at the picture to the right makes me nervous with the way he's carrying the ball. He's got to tighten that up, or else that electrifying running ability will be quickly negated.

Final Grade: B

Running Backs

I can't think of anything particularly spectacular the running backs did. They didn't fumble, so that's good. I think Royster did a good job of reading his blocks and making the right cuts this week. He looked more like 2008 Royster than 2009 Royster. It looks like he's starting to gain confidence in his offensive line again. He finished the day with 94 yards on 8 carries for a whopping 11.8 yards per carry.

Stephfon Green and Brandon Beachum looked equally impressive averaging 7.2 and 7.0 yards per carry respectively. I still don't know what to think about Green though. It just seems like he either gets impatient and runs past his blockers or he gets too patient and just dances until somebody tackles him. But when he times it correctly and puts it all together it almost seems like he's going to take it to the house on every play. More of that, please.

Final Grade: A

Wide Receivers

Unquestionably, the most pleasant surprise for me this year has been Chaz Powell. I must admit, I was not expecting much from him when the season began. My estimation was based on his performance last year when all I saw was a kid that ran end arounds and dropped half the passes thrown his way. But he has made a lot of progress and he's looking like a regular Derrick Williams out there. Saturday he had four catches for 79 yards and a touchdown. I was really impressed with his 51 yard touchdown pass. The throw from Clark was short, but Powell did a good job of adjusting to the ball and shielding the defender with his body. Then he showed some great concentration to catch the ball while the defender was hanging on him. And does anyone think Deon Butler or Derrick Williams could have fended off that contact and remained on their feet to walk in the endzone? I don't.

From what I saw Saturday, Justin Brown is going to be a star before his career is over. He caught everything thrown his way including a nice diving catch out of bounds. He threw a key block on Stephfon Green's 26 yard touchdown, and he even had Penn State's biggest punt return of the season for 18 yards. I think he has definitely earned the right to see more playing time going forward.

I felt great for Brett Brackett. After struggling to see the field and break out of his slump all season, he finally caught a touchdown pass. But then I felt bad for him because the announcer credited it to Mickey Shuler.

Final Grade: A

Offensive Line

Nothing special here. You expect a Div. IA offensive line to dominate an FCS team, and that's what Penn State did. But there were a couple of false starts, including one that killed the second drive forcing State to kick a field goal. So no perfect grade this week, guys.

Final Grade: B

Offensive Coaching

Eh, it's Eastern Illinois. But I was impressed with the motivation. It would have been easy for the team to pack it in and just go through the motions against this team. Credit the coaches for getting them motivated and focused to play this team. It looks like the team did a good job of shaking off the Iowa loss and coming together.

I was glad to see a lot of younger players get in the game, but I felt like they could have got Newsome in there earlier. He really should have started the second half, but Paterno went with Clark. The offense went 3-and-out, and I think Paterno didn't want them ending on a bad note like that, so Clark took the next series. I kind of predicted this was going to happen somewhere in the comments. Clark took a nasty shot on that last drive which pretty much infuriated me. There was no need to have him in there when they were up 38-3. It's not like Eastern Illinois was coming back.

Final Grade: B

Grading the Penn State Defense Against Temple

BSD — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 16:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

3 months ago: Penn State linebacker Josh Hull reacts to dropping an interception against Temple during the first half of their NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009, in State College, Pa. Penn State won 31-6. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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The equivalent of the NFL exhibition season is over, and just like the NFL exhibition season, we are left to wonder if the team is as good as we think they are. The defense has performed like we hoped they would. They have yet to allow any opponent to score more than seven points. But is that due to the fact they are extremely talented and well coached, or is it just a byproduct of the level of competition they played? In any regard, let's grade the defense against the Temple Owls.

Defensive Line

I didn't come away as impressed with the defensive line this week as I had the first two games. Maybe I'm being too hard on them. I mean, they did hold Temple to just 46 yards rushing. I guess I'm spoiled by watching two weeks of Odrick hitting the ball carrier as soon as he gets the ball. They did have moments of brilliance. Jack Crawford had 2.5 TFL and a sack. Jared Odrick and James Terry chipped in with a sack by each. And Ollie Ogbu caused the first fumble that was recovered by the defense this year. The pressure was good all day, but every once in a while the Owls would rip off an eight yard gain right up the gut that made me wonder. But overall it was another great job by the defensive line.

Final Grade: B+

Linebackers

Let there be no doubt that Sean Lee is back, and I swear he looks faster than he did two years ago. Lee finished with 12 tackles, 2.5 TLF, and a sack. He looked nothing short of brilliant in stuffing the holes and blowing up any play Temple tried to run to the outside. His stellar performance earned him Big Ten Player of the Week honors for the third time in his career. It's so great to see him back.

Josh Hull I felt played a solid game, but he really is a liability in the passing game. Temple had most of their success in moving the ball by attacking the medium middle of the field or by attacking the short seems between the linebackers. This is Hull's territory.

The other linebacker spot was a steady rotation of Bani Gbadyu, Nate Stupar, and Chris Colasanti. None of these guys looked very spectacular, though they did combine for 12 tackles in the game. Penn State desperately needs Navorro Bowman back on the field.

FInal Grade: B

Secondary

At this point I don't have any worries about the defensive backfield. Temple really challenged the secondary in this game and I thought they performed very well. There was one major mistake where Temple overloaded the left side with receivers and Andrew Dailey lost his man on a wheel route giving up a 36 yard play just after the half.

I was particularly impressed with the young players D'Anton Lynn and Stephon Morris. The few times I saw Temple challenge them they were always in position to break up the pass. Morris specificially showed a lot of awareness when Temple tried to beat him deep on a flea flicker. The wide receiver faked as though he tripped to try to bait Morris into attacking the sweep coming his direction, but Morris didn't bite. After the game defensive coordinator Tom Bradley said he warned Morris to be ready for the play because Temple had run it against Penn State back in 2007, and Morris stuck with it proving he's a very heads up player. Bradley said after the game that Morris will be "playing alot" this year. It's truly remarkable to see Joe Paterno allow a true freshman to see so much time in a high profile position like cornerback like Morris is seeing this year.

Final Grade: B+

Special Teams

Would the word "horrible" be an understatement? This was by far the most disappointing part of the game. The kickoff game is terrible on both ends. The kickoff returns look completely out of sync. The wedge takes too long to form and even longer to get going. Devon Smith has all the speed in the world, but his blockers are going so slow he can't get it out of second gear. And of course there was the one kickoff return where Joe Suhey was caught napping and Temple recovered the onside kick.

As bad as the kick return game is going, the kickoff coverage team is even worse. A lot of Colin Wagner's kicks were landing at the seven yard line without a lot of hang time. Only one kick went for a touchback, and Temple returned two kicks out past the 35 yard line. When you look at the players being used they are young, they are inexperienced, and they are undisciplined in staying in their lanes. It's just a matter of time until the kickoff coverage team gives up an easy touchdown.

And what the heck is up with the punt return game? Have we returned a punt yet this year? I think it's time to call an end to the Royster/Zug/Astorino dual punt returners experiment. Last year every punt return was a threat to score with Derrick Williams back there. Now we know it's just a guaranteed fair catch. Graham Zug may have suffered a concussion on one hit he took, so for all of you that argued against me when I said punt returners don't get hurt, can I please get a side of honey-mustard to go with my crow?

Wagner nailed his one chip shot field goal attempt, and Jeremy Boone was his usually ninja-kicking self averaging 47.8 yards on four punts. Boone was the only person saving the special teams from a failing grade.

Final Grade: D

Defensive Coaching

It's Temple. They held them to six points. Meh. Draw up plays in the dirt and we still win.

Final Grade: B

How the Illini schedule is shaping up.

Joe Kutsunis — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 19:46:00 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

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Today is the first day of the dreaded bye week, a period of time in which I have to find something other than football to devote my higher brain function to. The team of course has two bye weeks that bookend the Big Ten slate, all thanks to that crazy could awesome could be a disaster schedule. The schedule at the beginning of the year looked to be one of the leagues toughest with the non-con only having one true gimme game. Of course the season reveals what games will be challenges and what will be easier than predicted. Those looking for good news should turn away now.

Ohio State- Tressel and Terl held the #3 in the nation Trojans to 10 points in three and a half quarters on Saturday, and nearly ground the whole thing out Tressel style until a two minute drill at the end of the game.

Good news: The Buckeyes looked vulnerable against the run on the last drive
Bad News: The Illini do not start Joe McKnight.
Prognosis: Tougher

Penn State- The Nits rolled their second straight cupcake with out so much as breaking a sweat. Eat it Paulus. In short we learned nothing we didn't already know.
Good News: Derrick Williams= gone
Bad News: Evan Royster=Still here.
Prognosis: No change, still tough

Michigan State: What is bad news for the conference is good news for the Illini and their hopes for starting at least 2-3. The Spartans fell to the MAC-tacular Central Michigan Chippewas (don't laugh to hard, remember Western Michigan too) in a crazy touchdown-field goal double whammy with an onside kick thrown in for good measure. sure that might not tell us much, but this team that was picked 3rd preseason was also tied at 10 half. Trending downward.
Good News: They lost to a bad MAC team
Bad News: So did we, last year.
Prognosis: easier.

Michigan: Heroics from Tate Forcier to kill the monster that is Notre Dame, great for Michigan, bad for Illini who were hoping to reap the benefits from Rich Rod's gulag of football tyranny. Alas it looks like absent Steven Threet this team is competent offensively once again.
Good News: Notre Dame was probably way overrated anyway
Bad News: Barwis transforms mere mortals into titans of football and anger.
Prognosis: Sigh, much much tougher.

Cincinnati: Crap. and double crap
Prognosis: The wrong team to schedule with bowl hopes on the line.

Oh and just for kicks Fresno State took Wisconsin to double overtime. I can't wait for December (we don't even get the benefit of playing these bad Badgers...)

Is Penn State Really a Top 5 Team?

Law Buckeye — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:00:35 -0000

(Editor's Note: Never ones to welch, we present for your approval the musings of a real winner. Having soundly defeated us as our own predictions play this fan has earned the right to hijack The Rivalry, Esq. and recast the front page for her own purposes: in 500 words or less. Want to be our next guest contributor? Stay tuned for Week 3 of the Obligatory Predictions Competition.)

IS PENN STATE REALLY A TOP 5 TEAM?

By PATERNOSGRANDDAUGHTER

Week 1 Obligatory Predictions Winner and Special Guest Contributor to The Rivalry, Esq.

Living in Columbus, Ohio, and being a dance teacher who teaches on Saturday mornings and afternoons, I haven't had a chance to actually see Penn State play this season, other than in the highlights on SportsCenter. And let's be honest, when their first two match-ups have been against Akron and Syracuse, ESPN isn't going to devote a lot of time to those highlights, are they?

So all I've had to go on these past two weeks are stat boxes and analysis from my favorite Penn State blog, Black Shoe Diaries. As an avid Penn State fan, the first few weeks of the season always frustrate me because I don't know what the team really looks like.

Evan Royster says, "It's nothing a DVR box can't fix."

Here's a generic assessment from the information I have available to me:

The O-Line needs to buckle down and get tough. Evan Royster is a freak of nature and when I see that his stats against Syracuse were 12 carriers for 41 yards, that makes me very upset. This guy had over 1200 yards last season. There's no excuse for such things. The line has got to make some holes so Royster can get the ball moving. These stats may have got us the W's against Akron and Syracuse, but that's not going to fly in Big Ten play.

The passing game is looking good. Daryll Clark has a completion percentage of 69 percent, which is pretty decent. He has already racked up close to 600 yards in the air. Graham Zug and Derek Moye have slipped into the hugely empty shoes of Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood and they both seem to be doing just fine. All the pre-season worries were for not- although I wasn't worried. But like I said, passing alone won't get it done once we hit Big Ten play.

The D is very solid and Linebacker U continues to remain intact. Can't really argue with 2 touchdowns allowed in two games. I always prefer a shutout, but I'm pretty greedy. This team has faced mostly rushing teams, though, so they're going to be tested when they meet the pass. Still, as long as these guys keep holding strong, they could prove to be the saving grace later on down the road.

Here's Hilary's take on NW's near death experience at Ryan Field against Eastern Michigan.

Here's my take on the CMU upset in East Lansing.

The recap of the Forcier Experience in Ann Arbor

Law Buck comes out of his cave, haggard and lonely, to discuss the death of Tressellball against USC.

Summary of the wild Purdue-Oregon game.

I love the Nittany Lions with all my heart. But can someone tell me who is looking at this squad and seeing the number 5 team in the nation? Don't get me wrong, they have played two solid games, but hasn't the whole world been yelling about their strength of schedule this off-season? Is it just the result of upper teams losing or am I missing something?

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little apprehensive as we look towards conference play. I'm certainly not upset by the two victories we've notched, but I definitely see room for improvement if we want to contend for the conference title this season.

Inside Happy Valley: Getting To Know The Nittany

Sean Keeley — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 18:08:25 -0000

by Carolyn Kaster - AP

6 months ago: Penn State football coach Joe Paterno is surrounded by the media, Thursday, June 11, 2009, in State College, Pa. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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As we get down to it for the Syracuse-Penn State game, Penn State blog Happy Hour Valley and I traded questions about each others' team to try and crack the secret and get the upper hand. Read on to find out more about the team SU will be matching up against tomorrow. My answers to his questions can be found here.

JoePa. Seriously, enough already. What's he got, like 2-3 more years? And do Penn State fans secretly want a new guy in there?

I don't know...Seriously, I have no effing clue whatsoever. I remember in 2002 when JoePa suggested he would be done in four years. Towards the end of the 2004 season when we were still winless in Big Ten play and on our way to a fourth losing season in five years (and when the "JOE MUST GO" calls were at their loudest) we all thought "this is it." We then went on to win back-to-back games against Indiana and Michigan State to close out the season and landed the Derrick Williams/Justin King recruiting class that turned the program around.

Some people thought that if PSU had won the national title last year, JoePa would've retired given his ailing hip. Nothing a little surgery couldn't fix though, and JoePa is back on the sidelines again. I quit speculating on his retirement YEARS ago. Football is JoePa's lifeblood, he has no side hobbies so this is all he has going for him in life (aside from his family), which means the only way he leaves is if he’s far too physically disabled or if he croaks. Call me morbid, but I envision him passing away while he’s still in charge.

Let's just say JoePa calls it quits after this season, who are your top three candidates to take over?

Brian Kelly (Cincinnati head coach) – Love what he’s done at every stop he’s made, won back-to-back national titles at D2 Grand Valley State, turned Central Michigan into a winner, and got Cincy to their first BCS bowl in school history. A job in a more respectable BCS conference like the Big Ten is the next logical step, why not Penn State?

Tom Bradley (PSU defensive coordinator) – He was the de-facto head coach on the field last year when JoePa was stuck in the booth and played the same role in 2006 when JoePa had his knee messed up at Wisconsin. His bend-but-don’t-suck defensive style has given the fan base fits at times but you can’t argue with the fact that PSU has routinely produced kickass defenses under his watch. If PSU is going to hire within (which I suspect they will), Bradley will be the man.

Chris Petersen (Boise St. head coach) – This is an absolute longshot, but it’d be fun to see Petersen and his playbook full of "Jap Plays" being unleashed. Imagine Evan Royster completing a flea-flicker TD pass or taking a Statue-of-Liberty play into the end zone untouched.

The fear of God is already in me but give me some names to attach to that fear. Which Penn State players will most likely give me the day terrors on Saturday?

Derek Moye – Had his coming-out party against Akron last weekend with 6 catches for 138 yards and a TD. He’s 6’3" and speedy. Think of him as a white Mike Williams.

Nate Stupar – He filled in for the injured Navorro Bowman last week and make a case for himself to be included as a permanent starter. He’s very quick at getting to the ball, which means if Greg Paulus is hoping for his wideouts to get some quality YAC after catching short passes, he’s in for a disappointment.

Evan Royster – I've already thrown out two lesser known names, so I’ll use a more well-known one. If the run-blocking for PSU improves vastly from last week (which I think they can), it will be another field day for him. But you guys already knew that.

For those of us who haven't been, what's a gameday at Happy Valley like and what can Syracuse fans on hand expect?

Imagine fans coming not just from all over Pennsylvania but from all of its neighboring states and beyond to watch PSU play, that’s a typical fall Saturday in State College for you. It’s like having 7 or 8 Woodstock festivals every year (sans Jimi Hendrix’s rendition of "The Star-Spangled Banner") and finding a quality tailgate to attend is never a difficult task.

As far as what Syracuse fans should expect: I wouldn’t worry too much about abuse from PSU fans, most of them either don’t know or have long since forgotten about the bitter PSU-Cuse rivalry that was. Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame fans have taken over the "most verbally heckled by drunks" list. Also, make sure you leave your homes as early as possible, lest you get buried in traffic. As far as the game itself, Syracuse fans will probably be overwhelmed by how massive Beaver Stadium is (108,000+ seats) and the fact that this week’s crowd will be full of damn, dirty, hippies.

Penn State is looking like a decent bet to win the Big Ten right now. How you feel about it and how do you feel about national title hopes?

One game at a time…No, really, there’s always at least one game a year (usually on the road) where the team doesn’t bother to show up against an opponent everyone expects them to beat. Last year, it was Iowa. The year before that, it was Illinois, Michigan, and Michigan State. For 2009, I’m very much worried about our game at Northwestern, it’s sandwiched right in between showdowns with Michigan and Ohio State, not to mention Northwestern usually plays us tough in Evanston. Did I also mention the game’s being played on Halloween? Not a good omen, if you ask me.

Now, with that being said: I think we’ve looked like the best team out there in the Big Ten so far. Yes, better than OSU and the greatest QB to ever play college football. You wouldn’t be wasting your money if you put it down on us winning the conference.

Prediction time. Obviously, you think Penn State will win...but by how much?

I love how Vegas is attempting to sucker in casual sports fans who don’t follow college football very closely by making PSU a 28-point favorite. They’re banking on the fact that most people don’t realize how much improved the ‘Cuse are compared to a year ago and will assume that since the game is at PSU, the 'Cuse won't even put any type of a fight. I know better of course, which is why I’m picking the ‘Cuse to beat the spread but still lose, 38-17.

Penn State's Reason For Hope #2 - We're Linebacker U

BSD — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

Yeah they're ok. I could have had guns like that back in my days at Brown. But I was too busy chasing girls and eating pasta. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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Some things never change from year to year. Lou Holtz will always think Notre Dame is going undefeated. Jim Tressel will be rocking the sweater vest like it's a 1955 Sock Hop. Pitt will always suck. And Penn State will churn out a batch of man-eating linebackers. 2009 is no exception.

Linebackers have always been the heart and soul of Joe Paterno's defense. From Jack Ham and Dennis Onkotz to Ed O'Neil and Greg Buttle to Shane Conlan and Trei Bauer to LaVar Arrington and Brandon Short to Paul Posluszny and Dan Connor, Penn State has been turning out dominating linebackers for five decades.

Last year Navorro Bowmanemerged as a dominating force in only his redshirt sophomore year. Bowman led the team in tackles with 106 (61 solo), and was second in tackles for loss with 16.5, And though Penn State played their worst game of the year in the Rose Bowl, Bowman played his best game recording five solo tackles for loss against the Trojans. This year, with the full hype kicking in from the first snap of the season, Bowman is poised to rocket himself into many of the post season award shows. And then he will probably rocket himself into a first round draft pick next April.

But it won't be Bowman everyone will be watching when Akron lines up in a little over a week from now. All eyes will be on No. 45, Sean Lee. The senior captain returns this year after missing the 2008 season with an ACL injury. He took home the MVP in the 2007 Alamo Bowl and was poised for an All American year last season, but now we're blessed to see him on the field where we have plenty of other questions to address. His leadership and experience will be priceless in leading a defense that is rebuilding in several areas.

Mike Mauti was most likely fill in the third spot in the linebacker group, but an ACL injury brought that to an end. But don't cry for me, Argentina. Penn State has plenty of bodies to fill in. Josh Hull played all 13 games last year in Sean Lee's absence. Though he has been the subject of a lot of criticism here and in other venues, Hull brings tremendous experience, a good work ethic, and a tough attitude.

Backing up these guys is no shortage of talent. Nate Stupar is becoming one of my favorite players. I've mentioned this numerous times, but even though Derrick Williams got all the attention with is electrifying kick and punt returns, Stupar was the MVP on special teams last year. Every time Williams had a big return, No. 34 was there throwing a key block. Every time the kickoff coverage team stopped the opponent before he crossed the 20, it was No. 34 making the initial contact. And it was No. 34 fighting through double-team blocks to block two punts. The man was everywhere, and if he didn't play behind Lavorro he would be everywhere on defense.

As far as the rest of the guys, look for Bani Gbadyuto have a breakthrough year. He's seeing time at middle linebacker, and I have a hunch the coaches have finally figured out how to play him to his strengths. Let's just say if I'm an opposing coach and I see Gbadyu come in the game, I would look for the blitz.

With Mike Zordich and Mike Yancich Penn State probably has the best third string linebackers in the country. This group is so good the decision has already been made to redshirt Chris Colasanti, a former four-star prospect, in his third year.

The Linebacker U tradition is alive and well. And if history is an indicator, when Penn State has good linebackers, the defense is pretty nasty. Consider half the puzzle solved.

Five Reasons For Hope For Penn State In 2009

BSD — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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I love this time of year. Another college football season is just around the corner. Everyone is 0-0 and full of hopes and dreams for a National Championship. But everyone has their holes to fill as well, and Penn State is no exception. So with that we'll start a series that has kind of become a BSD preseason tradition: Five Reasons for Hope and Five Reasons for Concern for Penn State. Since I'm the heavy Kool-Aide drinker I'll be handling the Hope end of things while RUTS will be playing the part of Debbie Downer. We'll count down starting today with...

Reason for Hope #5: The Spread HD Offense

In the spring of 2008 it was a running punch line that started just after the Alamo Bowl when Jay Paterno described the offense Penn State planned to employ in 2008 as the "Spread HD" offense. Penn State was going into the season with a new quarterback, a new running back, and a group of wide receivers that nobody outside of the Penn State family could find much of anything good to say about. But after a few games the critics were silenced as Penn State's offense showed it could light up the scoreboard with the best of them.

In a lot of ways the Penn State offense reminds me of Purdue. Stick with me here for a second. Year in and year out the Boilermakers rank near the top of the conference in passing offense. But who was the last Purdue wide receiver to go in the NFL draft? (Answer: Vinny Sutherland in 2001 - 5th Round to Atlanta) They don't overwhelm you with amazing athletes. They just spread the ball around and mix up the play calling to keep the defense guessing.

There isn't anything particularly innovative about the Spread HD offense. A lot of people, including Joe Paterno, have drawn comparisons to the Wing-T offense of the 1940's. It's just an offense that is highly diverse in its personnel and play calling. They spread the defense and distrubute the ball getting everyone involved. The defense can't just focus on shutting down Evan Royster.

A main talking point for those who doubt the Nittany Lions this year is the new receiving corps. They say Daryll Clark will not be the same quarterback without Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood. These same people were the ones calling Butler and Norwood average at best and Williams a bust a year ago. And I suspect they were the same people who said Michael Robinson wouldn't have any receivers back in 2005.

But I say Penn State doesn't need a Michael Crabtree that can catch 12 passes a game for 185 yards and three touchdowns. When you look back at Penn State's stats the past few years, we didn't have a dominating wide receiver. But all three guys would usually finish the day with three or four catches for 50-70 yards. At the end of the day none of their stats jumped out at you, but Daryll Clark would get his 250 yards and two touchdowns. This is what made Penn State so effective.

When I look at this team this year I see plenty of talent for Clark to work with. Chaz Powell will play the Derrick Williams role with the quick slants, screens, and crossing patterns. Graham Zug will be the mid-range to deep threats. Though he lacks Butler's speed, he runs precise routes and has good hands. Brett Brackett will be the guy in the middle replacing Norwood. He's not as shifty, but he's a big physical presence that can fight off linebackers and safeties with his body. Add to this mix some of the talented freshmen like Justin Brown and Curtis Drake and I think there will be plenty of weapons for Clark to work with.

An Early Look: Penn State

Sam @ WWAHT — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 12:00:16 -0000

Let's excuse our Penn State friends for a moment. I've just given them beaucoup spank bank material.

2009 is going to be a very, very important year for the Penn State program. It may end up being the most important of the decade, outside of 2005's Redemption Tour. The Age of JoePa is coming to an end, and soon. The program has largely put the struggles of the early 2000s behind them, and on the strength of a Big Ten championship and a shocking win in Columbus last year, Penn State is considered by many to be the Big Ten's other program-of-the-now, as Michigan has placed itself firmly in the midst of a massive rebuilding project. What is it exactly that Penn State has to do in 2009 to have a successful season?

Well, first off: the program has its doubters. Despite the lopsided Rose Bowl loss to USC, Penn State is a program that has largely been innocent of the non-conference embarrassments characteristic of other Big Ten programs lately; the Nittany Lions had won two bowl games prior to the Rose Bowl meltdown, one against an okay Texas A+M squad in Texas and another against Tennessee, a game prior to which Tennessee boasted a top-20 ranking and the Lions had been unranked. The program, however, still bears the mark of what its fans call The Dark Years, and up until 2008, the struggles against Ohio State and Michigan had held the program back from rejoining the ranks of the truly elite. 2008 was in many ways a breakthrough year; Penn State beat both Ohio State and (an admittedly down) Michigan, and if the Big Ten's championship-deciding rules weren't so archaic, the Lions would have won the conference outright. Up until the final weeks of the season, Penn State was seen as a national title contender, whose legitimacy was questioned - in my mind, unfairly at times - due to Ohio State's falls-from-grace in the prior two championship games. While the losses to USC and Iowa stung for Nittany fans, 2008 provided renewed confidence in Paterno and the newly-explosive offense.

But they still have one more hump to get over. They have to be able to repeat that success to at least some degree, and channel it into another solid (i.e. no more than two loss) conference season. If they don't, the "once-a-recruiting-cycle" nature of Penn State's national relevance will continue to stain the program. The Big Ten will have to suffer through another year of being considered Ohio State, and then everybody else. No pressure or anything, guys.

But if they're relatively successful, Big Ten detractors will have a difficult time deriding the conference as a "one-team league", and it'll only get more difficult if the Rich Rodriguez experiment shows signs of life at Michigan. I frequently find myself reminding my fellow Ohio State fans that if the conference is to truly get better, the Buckeyes will have to take their share lumps in the process.* Personally, as a fan who wants to see his team win every game, I don't think it's worth it, but perhaps that's just me. However, if you're one of the people who really, genuinely cares about "conference strength", you want Penn State to show some sort of staying power. They don't necessarily have to win the conference, but they have to be competitive in every single game, win about ten of them, and ideally, they need to win their bowl game as well.

Penn State players you should care about:

On a schematic level, Jared Odrick had about as much to do with Penn State's win as Aaron Maybin swallowing Bryant Browning whole. Odrick literally tore up the offensive interior for four quarters, and was a big reason why Beanie Wells was held to 55 yards rushing on 22 carries. Of course, Navarro Bowman, he of the 106 freaking tackles in his redshirt freshman year, had a bit to do with that as well. Both will terrorize the offensive line, and if neither can be blocked, Ohio State's offense will be done. Evan Royster didn't quite tear up the Buckeye defense last year, but he provided some consistency on a night where Daryll Clark could provide none, toting the rock 19 times for 77 yards.

Fun with statistics:

Penn State's rushing defense last year was a killer, killer outfit, and given that they return Odrick, Bowman, and Sean Lee (from injury), it might be even better this year. Five teams - Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana and Illinois - went over 100 yards rushing on the Nittany Lion defense, and all of them except Wisconsin had one run that went for 30 yards or more on its own. Oh, and Iowa. But Iowa had Shonn Greene. Basically, if that one run that killed them against Indiana, Illinois and Michigan didn't happen, it would have been in the conversation as one of the most dominant rushing defenses in the Big Ten this decade. USC, a little busy torching the Lions' secondary through the air, managed only 61 yards on 35 carries in the Rose Bowl.

Penn State had nine guys with over 100 yards receiving at the end of the season to Ohio State's five. Fortunately for us, the three most productive of those guys - Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood and Derrick Williams - are gonesie.

How big was Aaron Maybin to Penn State last year? Well, he account for more than 1/3rd of their 33 sacks. Odrick was their next-leading sack artist, but Josh Gaines and Maurice Evans, a due that accounted for seven combined sacks last year, are lost to graduation and the draft. All told, Penn State lost more than half of their sacks off of last year's unit.

As a result, this is where I start salivating: Lydell Sargeant, Tony Davis, and Mark Rubin are no more; they have ceased to be, and the only returning guy of note in the secondary is AJ Wallace. And uh, yeah about AJ Wallace....

My prediction: Alright, you're going to have to bear with me on this. I think Terrelle Pryor is going to do fairly well against the Nittany Lions, and here's why: last year, he had his best passing day of the season, yards-wise, against the Lions. This year, he'll do much of the same. Expect him to get a good amount of time in the pocket and rack up some impressive stats, but the Penn State front seven is going to clog the rushing lanes at critical junctures late in the game. In the end, Penn State will walk away having given Ohio State a tough 17-13 loss, as the Buckeyes end up settling for one too many field goals after multiple promising drives. I should note that I personally do not think this Penn State squad goes undefeated in the Big Ten, losing probably at Illinois. Nevertheless, Penn State's front seven, featuring what might be the best linebacking corps in America , will be simply too good for a Buckeye offense that'll probably still be relying quite heavily on its ground game to overcome.

A Nittany Lion's Thoughts: Kevin from BSD was kind enough to oblige us with his opinions on the game, as well as whether or not this really is a rivalry.

1. Do you consider Penn State - Ohio State a rivalry? If so, why?

Yes, and I'll try to keep this concise.

I wrote a bit about this in the magazine, but basically I see the evolution of this thing following the path that the some southern schools have taken. For so long you had OSU and UM as consistent Big Ten winners, with others unable to maintain any lasting stature as a consistent threat.

The way this works is if Penn State is able to put the Dark Years behind them and become that third party threat. Purists on your end will probably claim there can only be one Game, but guess what: Michigan has a pretty solid rivalry with Notre Dame, and that's been able to co-exist for an awful long time with their conference finale.

So how is a school like Florida is able to have multiple rivals and no one gets into pissing contests about which one is best? FSU is an important game for them, but so in Miami, and they have the Cocktail Party with Georgia...it's all gravy and it only makes there season better.

And it's really only discussion about Michigan that makes this a question in the first place. PSU and OSU share a border and recruiting ground and your Best Player Ever is from our state. Only our two schools have won the conference championship in the last four years and we are picked 1-2 again in 2009. Gameday has been to this game four years in a row, they've only been to Ohio State-Michigan twice in that time.

I'm not trying to discount your game with UM, it's great yada yada, but I do find it funny how important it is for Big Ten lovers (from all schools) to put games into very distinct and well defined boxes rather than just looking at the reality of the situation: which is that when teams repeatedly compete for high stakes natural "rivalness" occurs.

I blame it all on the damn trophies.

2. Name a player opposing fans should be aware of; preferably one that don't already know about.

Well you might have heard we lost the three long time, well regarded receivers who dominate Penn State's career receiving records. Even though just about everyone bashed them in their 2008 previews as undersized and over-hyped (or alternatively: underwhelming and unimpressive), we are apparently all going to die and looking at the total abomination of our passing game.

But the team will try to throw anyway, and although I could pick a couple of guys who may or may not break out, I'll name-drop Derek Moye. He'll be the deep threat and at 6-5 has the ability to (in time) be a more imposing Butler-type because of his athletic ability. He can by most accounts fly and should help at the very least open the field up a bit.

3. Taking off the blue and white-colored rec specs, what do you think Penn State's regular-season record will be?

I hate making predictions and so prefer a kind of caveated cop out. We looked at some of the early lines and Penn State isn't a pre-season do g in any game they play. This makes me want to say 12-0 is saying something like below 11-1 is a kind of disappointment.

But I'm not really that optimistic. Ohio State as you know will be very good this year, Iowa is early enough to give a developing team some problems, and Illinois scares the hell out of me because if Williams shows up that offense will be impossible to stop. Basically: 9-3 is a very real possibility.

4. Make an off-the-cuff prediction for the Ohio State game.

Off-the-cuff? Sure: Penn State 16 Ohio State 10 on a cold as hell day where Royster and Green outplay Herron and Saine.

I can personally verify from extensive playing and replaying of this game on NCAA 09 that Derek Moye is indeed a terror to cover. Well, pixellated Derek Moye anyway. Leave your thoughts on the game below.

A Way Too Early Look At The 2009 Schedule - Week 7 - Penn State

JG2112 — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 15:30:12 -0000

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

6 months ago: Penn State football coach Joe Paterno pauses after he talked to media, Thursday, June 11, 2009, in State College, Pa. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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Penn State: At a glance:

Location: University Park, Pennsylvania
Stadium: Beaver Stadium (size: 107,282)
Expected Attendance: about 109,000.
Undergraduate population: 44,512.
First season: 1887
Number of Big Ten Titles: 3
All-time record: 800-349-32
All-time bowl record: 26-13-2.

Most awesome alum: undoubtedly Jonathan Frakes, better known as William T. Riker and "#1" on the new Star Trek series.

Most awesome Penn State fan site: Red, er, Black Shoe Diaries of course.

And here comes the Big Ten buzzsaw.

Much has changed since the last time these two teams played in 2006, a referee-assisted 28-27 overtime victory for the Nittany Lions at Metrodump. The Gophers have a new coach, a new stadium, and have switched offensive philosophies twice. For Penn State...errr......Joe Pa...errr....Darryl Cla......good linebac......okay, so much has changed for Minnesota since 2006.

This year Indiana and Michigan drop off the Gophers' schedule. It looks pretty bad, however, when one realizes that Penn State (11-2 in 2008) and Michigan State (9-4 in 2008) rotate on to the schedule. The Gophers get the "good" fortune to play their seventh game in 2009, and their second conference road game, in the pale fury of University Park, PA against the Fighting Paternos.

Why good? Well, Minnesota should be 5-1 or 4-2 going into the game (um, right?). If so, perhaps a repeat of the stirring victory over then #2 Penn State in 1999 could be in the offing. Whether that happens depends a lot upon injuries, morale, and players. Speaking of players, we're going to fly solo and analyze the Nittany Lions, starting with....

More after the jump.....

Penn State on Offense - You may have heard of Darryl Clark. Heck, your grandparents may have seen him play in the ‘40s. Clark returns as a fifth-year senior, but is six years' removed from high school, so he's closer to legally renting a car than he is to gaining the right to vote. In 2008, he completed almost 60% of his passes, throwing 19 TDs against only 6 INTs. He also ran for 10 TDs. His backup, Paul Devlin, transferred to Joe Flacco U., so true freshman (as well as Michigan and Virginia de-commit) Kevin Newsome backs him up. Seeing how Newsome struggled in the Lions' spring game, Penn State is an injury away from quarterbacking incompetence.

Penn State's five top rushing threats return, highlighted by Evan Royster and Stephon Green. Royster gained 1236 yards at 6.47 ypc, and Green gained 578 yards at 5.50 ypc. This will be the obvious focal point for the Gophers' defense, because.....

.....Penn State's three senior receivers (Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood and Derrick Williams) all graduated, taking a majority of the receptions with them. Top returning wideouts include Graham Zug, Brett Brackett, and James "DUI" McDonald. This part of the offense will likely be functional but non-threatening at the time of the Gopher game. The wideouts' inexperience should allow Traye Simmons to help the run defense, hopefully neutralizing Royster and Green.

The Lions also lose three all Big Ten offensive linemen, though they have Stefen Wisniewski moving to center and Dennis Landolt at right tackle. New 6'5", 313-pound left tackle (and gloriously named) DeOn'tae Pannell will have to step in and perform at a high level to ensure the rushing game does not stall.

Bottom Line - Penn State's Offense: The offense will likely take a step back from its production in 2008. If Clark, Royster, and/or Wisniewski spend any significant period of time out injured, the offense will have significant production issues. Minnesota's large defensive line and mobile linebackers should be able to at least hang with the rushing attack, and the defensive backfield should handle the Lions' inexperienced wideouts. Due to Tramaine Brock's departure, however, we can count on at least one video replay with Ryan Collado trailing a wideout into the end zone.

Penn State on Defense: Linebacker U., right? Shane Conlan, Paul Pozlusny, Leapin' LaVar Arrington. Lately, Penn State has also churned out a number of solid defensive linemen, including 2009 draftees Aaron Maybin and Maurice Evans.

Well, wait a moment. Evans wasn't drafted, which begs a couple of questions. Was the NFL correct in determining Evans made a mistake in coming out early? Did Evans consider himself too good for college? What is left in State College? Well, Jared Odrick for one. Odrick had 41 tackles last year, 9.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Also, Jack Crawford is new to the sport, being British and all (check that name), but he is highly regarded in Pennsylvania (as well as Portsmouth, for that matter) and will be expected to contribute. Ollie Ogbu and Abe Koroma are also returning linemen.

As for linebackers, well, if you follow a police blotter, you may have read some stuff about Navorro Bowman this off-season (all the action should serve Bowman well: he's a Crime, Law and Justice major, which I presume is University-Speak for "Wants to Be a Cop or District Attorney if he tears his knee up"). It seems JoePa is satisfied Bowman is ready to play football instead of smoking spliffs or beating up coeds. This is too bad for Duane Bennett, et al, as Bowman had 106 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, and 4 INT's last year.

Also returning after a year out due to injury is LB Sean Lee. He was all Big Ten in 2007 before tearing his ACL, and will undoubtedly be a tough block for the Gophers' O-line.

Wide receivers are the big question mark on offense. On defense, it's the defensive backfield. All starters have moved on, leaving CBs AJ Wallace and (really?) Knowledge Timmons and Ss Drew Astorino and Cedric Jeffries, as well as a cavalcade of 2009 signees, to take their place. This is where Gophers Offensive Coordinator Jedd Fisch should be picking on the defense, if he is the offensive genius Coach Brewster has made him out to be.

Bottom line - Penn State's Defense: The defense will step back this year from their dominating 2008 performance. Odrick, Bowman and Lee form about 40 % of a solid front seven. However, the defensive secondary is untested and has little experience. The Gophers should abandon any pretense of balance in their offensive attack in this game, spread five wideouts, get Pittman, Stoudermire, Brandon, McKnight, Kuznia, Decker, and Carpenter in space against the untested secondary, and pick them apart.

Penn State on Special Teams: 4-year starter Kevin Kelly departs, with either (Michigan de-commit) Anthony Fera or Colin Wagner assuming the kicking duties for Penn State's all-time leading scorer. Jeremy Boone, a senior returns as punter with a 43.03 ypk average from 2008.

One additional point bears mentioning regarding PSU's special teams. The youngest and most inexperienced areas of Penn State's team are their wideouts and defensive backfield. Kickoff return teams normally field some reserve players from these units. As the starters for Penn State are younger, the backups are even younger. Troy Stoudermire should be able to exploit these players' inexperience and youth and have some big returns at Beaver Stadium.

Bottom Line: What to Expect

Minnesota is Penn State's Homecoming opponent. We are sandwiched between a home game against Eastern Illinois (heh?) and a road game against Michigan. We could be the beneficiary of a team which wasn't really tested the prior week. Also, if the Wolverines improve, Minnesota could be the beneficiary of a team looking ahead to a 3-game stretch including Michigan, Northwestern and Ohio State.

As for the Gophers, this is the start of what looks to be a bad stretch of games, including a road game at Ohio State, home games against Michigan State and Illinois, an off week against South Dakota State, and then the battle for the Pig. This is the best chance to beat one of those scheduled "rough games." Penn State has little experience at wideout, even less in the defensive backfield, and is exploitable in special teams. If the Gophers spread the field and pick on Penn State's defense, the Gophers could walk out of Pennsylvania with a victory.

Minnesota 38
Penn State 34

Your say....

Poll

Who will win on October 17th?

Minnesota

41 votes

Penn State

369 votes

410 votes | Poll has closed