SB Nation - Deon Butler

Grading the Penn State Offense Against Eastern Illinois

BSD — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 15:05:49 -0000

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

2 months ago: Penn State quarterback Kevin Newsome (12) runs for a gain through Eastern Illinois defenders Nathan Galan (95) and Sean Campbell (49) during the second half of their NCAA college football game in State College, Pa., Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009. Penn State won 52-3. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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You all get lucky today. My kid's soccer game got cancelled, so I watched the Penn State game. So you all get a review today. Let's get to it.

Quarterbacks

Daryll Clark was sensational completing 13 of 19 passes for 234 yards and 3 TD. But then I would be worried if he were anything less than sensational against Eastern Illinois. Other than being a little erratic in the redzone on Penn State's second possession, his lone mistake was the interception, and it was an ugly play. He recognized the blitz was coming and looked at Quarless for the short outlet. And he looked. And he looked. And he looked some more. Then I think he even pointed at Quarless and yelled, "Hey, I'm going to throw it there!" Then he threw it and it was intercepted. Let's try not to do that next time, mmmkay?

But let's talk about Mr. Newsome who saw his most extended action of the year. Saturday was more confirmation about some things we already suspected. Newsome is an electrifying runner. It seems like he can go from standing still to top speed in about two steps. And he's a big kid that's tough to bring down. I must admit, when I see him running in that No. 12 jersey, I see a lot of Michael Robinson. Having him in the backfield next year with Evan Royster and Stephfon Green with an experienced offensive line just might be unstoppable. That's the good part.

On the flip side, I saw something else that reminded me of Michael Robinson, but this isn't a good thing. Newsome has a long way to go in refining his mechanics. He throws off his back foot a lot, and he's a little partial to doing the sidearm wrist-flick-thing. And yes, I saw a lot of arm punts. The other thing that bothered me is the way he carries the ball. He had two fumbles in his short time on the field, and there were a few other carries where he let ball separate from his body leaving him susceptible to another fumble. Just looking at the picture to the right makes me nervous with the way he's carrying the ball. He's got to tighten that up, or else that electrifying running ability will be quickly negated.

Final Grade: B

Running Backs

I can't think of anything particularly spectacular the running backs did. They didn't fumble, so that's good. I think Royster did a good job of reading his blocks and making the right cuts this week. He looked more like 2008 Royster than 2009 Royster. It looks like he's starting to gain confidence in his offensive line again. He finished the day with 94 yards on 8 carries for a whopping 11.8 yards per carry.

Stephfon Green and Brandon Beachum looked equally impressive averaging 7.2 and 7.0 yards per carry respectively. I still don't know what to think about Green though. It just seems like he either gets impatient and runs past his blockers or he gets too patient and just dances until somebody tackles him. But when he times it correctly and puts it all together it almost seems like he's going to take it to the house on every play. More of that, please.

Final Grade: A

Wide Receivers

Unquestionably, the most pleasant surprise for me this year has been Chaz Powell. I must admit, I was not expecting much from him when the season began. My estimation was based on his performance last year when all I saw was a kid that ran end arounds and dropped half the passes thrown his way. But he has made a lot of progress and he's looking like a regular Derrick Williams out there. Saturday he had four catches for 79 yards and a touchdown. I was really impressed with his 51 yard touchdown pass. The throw from Clark was short, but Powell did a good job of adjusting to the ball and shielding the defender with his body. Then he showed some great concentration to catch the ball while the defender was hanging on him. And does anyone think Deon Butler or Derrick Williams could have fended off that contact and remained on their feet to walk in the endzone? I don't.

From what I saw Saturday, Justin Brown is going to be a star before his career is over. He caught everything thrown his way including a nice diving catch out of bounds. He threw a key block on Stephfon Green's 26 yard touchdown, and he even had Penn State's biggest punt return of the season for 18 yards. I think he has definitely earned the right to see more playing time going forward.

I felt great for Brett Brackett. After struggling to see the field and break out of his slump all season, he finally caught a touchdown pass. But then I felt bad for him because the announcer credited it to Mickey Shuler.

Final Grade: A

Offensive Line

Nothing special here. You expect a Div. IA offensive line to dominate an FCS team, and that's what Penn State did. But there were a couple of false starts, including one that killed the second drive forcing State to kick a field goal. So no perfect grade this week, guys.

Final Grade: B

Offensive Coaching

Eh, it's Eastern Illinois. But I was impressed with the motivation. It would have been easy for the team to pack it in and just go through the motions against this team. Credit the coaches for getting them motivated and focused to play this team. It looks like the team did a good job of shaking off the Iowa loss and coming together.

I was glad to see a lot of younger players get in the game, but I felt like they could have got Newsome in there earlier. He really should have started the second half, but Paterno went with Clark. The offense went 3-and-out, and I think Paterno didn't want them ending on a bad note like that, so Clark took the next series. I kind of predicted this was going to happen somewhere in the comments. Clark took a nasty shot on that last drive which pretty much infuriated me. There was no need to have him in there when they were up 38-3. It's not like Eastern Illinois was coming back.

Final Grade: B

Is Penn State Really a Top 5 Team?

Law Buckeye — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:00:35 -0000

(Editor's Note: Never ones to welch, we present for your approval the musings of a real winner. Having soundly defeated us as our own predictions play this fan has earned the right to hijack The Rivalry, Esq. and recast the front page for her own purposes: in 500 words or less. Want to be our next guest contributor? Stay tuned for Week 3 of the Obligatory Predictions Competition.)

IS PENN STATE REALLY A TOP 5 TEAM?

By PATERNOSGRANDDAUGHTER

Week 1 Obligatory Predictions Winner and Special Guest Contributor to The Rivalry, Esq.

Living in Columbus, Ohio, and being a dance teacher who teaches on Saturday mornings and afternoons, I haven't had a chance to actually see Penn State play this season, other than in the highlights on SportsCenter. And let's be honest, when their first two match-ups have been against Akron and Syracuse, ESPN isn't going to devote a lot of time to those highlights, are they?

So all I've had to go on these past two weeks are stat boxes and analysis from my favorite Penn State blog, Black Shoe Diaries. As an avid Penn State fan, the first few weeks of the season always frustrate me because I don't know what the team really looks like.

Evan Royster says, "It's nothing a DVR box can't fix."

Here's a generic assessment from the information I have available to me:

The O-Line needs to buckle down and get tough. Evan Royster is a freak of nature and when I see that his stats against Syracuse were 12 carriers for 41 yards, that makes me very upset. This guy had over 1200 yards last season. There's no excuse for such things. The line has got to make some holes so Royster can get the ball moving. These stats may have got us the W's against Akron and Syracuse, but that's not going to fly in Big Ten play.

The passing game is looking good. Daryll Clark has a completion percentage of 69 percent, which is pretty decent. He has already racked up close to 600 yards in the air. Graham Zug and Derek Moye have slipped into the hugely empty shoes of Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood and they both seem to be doing just fine. All the pre-season worries were for not- although I wasn't worried. But like I said, passing alone won't get it done once we hit Big Ten play.

The D is very solid and Linebacker U continues to remain intact. Can't really argue with 2 touchdowns allowed in two games. I always prefer a shutout, but I'm pretty greedy. This team has faced mostly rushing teams, though, so they're going to be tested when they meet the pass. Still, as long as these guys keep holding strong, they could prove to be the saving grace later on down the road.

Here's Hilary's take on NW's near death experience at Ryan Field against Eastern Michigan.

Here's my take on the CMU upset in East Lansing.

The recap of the Forcier Experience in Ann Arbor

Law Buck comes out of his cave, haggard and lonely, to discuss the death of Tressellball against USC.

Summary of the wild Purdue-Oregon game.

I love the Nittany Lions with all my heart. But can someone tell me who is looking at this squad and seeing the number 5 team in the nation? Don't get me wrong, they have played two solid games, but hasn't the whole world been yelling about their strength of schedule this off-season? Is it just the result of upper teams losing or am I missing something?

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little apprehensive as we look towards conference play. I'm certainly not upset by the two victories we've notched, but I definitely see room for improvement if we want to contend for the conference title this season.

Five Reasons For Hope For Penn State In 2009

BSD — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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I love this time of year. Another college football season is just around the corner. Everyone is 0-0 and full of hopes and dreams for a National Championship. But everyone has their holes to fill as well, and Penn State is no exception. So with that we'll start a series that has kind of become a BSD preseason tradition: Five Reasons for Hope and Five Reasons for Concern for Penn State. Since I'm the heavy Kool-Aide drinker I'll be handling the Hope end of things while RUTS will be playing the part of Debbie Downer. We'll count down starting today with...

Reason for Hope #5: The Spread HD Offense

In the spring of 2008 it was a running punch line that started just after the Alamo Bowl when Jay Paterno described the offense Penn State planned to employ in 2008 as the "Spread HD" offense. Penn State was going into the season with a new quarterback, a new running back, and a group of wide receivers that nobody outside of the Penn State family could find much of anything good to say about. But after a few games the critics were silenced as Penn State's offense showed it could light up the scoreboard with the best of them.

In a lot of ways the Penn State offense reminds me of Purdue. Stick with me here for a second. Year in and year out the Boilermakers rank near the top of the conference in passing offense. But who was the last Purdue wide receiver to go in the NFL draft? (Answer: Vinny Sutherland in 2001 - 5th Round to Atlanta) They don't overwhelm you with amazing athletes. They just spread the ball around and mix up the play calling to keep the defense guessing.

There isn't anything particularly innovative about the Spread HD offense. A lot of people, including Joe Paterno, have drawn comparisons to the Wing-T offense of the 1940's. It's just an offense that is highly diverse in its personnel and play calling. They spread the defense and distrubute the ball getting everyone involved. The defense can't just focus on shutting down Evan Royster.

A main talking point for those who doubt the Nittany Lions this year is the new receiving corps. They say Daryll Clark will not be the same quarterback without Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood. These same people were the ones calling Butler and Norwood average at best and Williams a bust a year ago. And I suspect they were the same people who said Michael Robinson wouldn't have any receivers back in 2005.

But I say Penn State doesn't need a Michael Crabtree that can catch 12 passes a game for 185 yards and three touchdowns. When you look back at Penn State's stats the past few years, we didn't have a dominating wide receiver. But all three guys would usually finish the day with three or four catches for 50-70 yards. At the end of the day none of their stats jumped out at you, but Daryll Clark would get his 250 yards and two touchdowns. This is what made Penn State so effective.

When I look at this team this year I see plenty of talent for Clark to work with. Chaz Powell will play the Derrick Williams role with the quick slants, screens, and crossing patterns. Graham Zug will be the mid-range to deep threats. Though he lacks Butler's speed, he runs precise routes and has good hands. Brett Brackett will be the guy in the middle replacing Norwood. He's not as shifty, but he's a big physical presence that can fight off linebackers and safeties with his body. Add to this mix some of the talented freshmen like Justin Brown and Curtis Drake and I think there will be plenty of weapons for Clark to work with.

An Early Look: Penn State

Sam @ WWAHT — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 12:00:16 -0000

Let's excuse our Penn State friends for a moment. I've just given them beaucoup spank bank material.

2009 is going to be a very, very important year for the Penn State program. It may end up being the most important of the decade, outside of 2005's Redemption Tour. The Age of JoePa is coming to an end, and soon. The program has largely put the struggles of the early 2000s behind them, and on the strength of a Big Ten championship and a shocking win in Columbus last year, Penn State is considered by many to be the Big Ten's other program-of-the-now, as Michigan has placed itself firmly in the midst of a massive rebuilding project. What is it exactly that Penn State has to do in 2009 to have a successful season?

Well, first off: the program has its doubters. Despite the lopsided Rose Bowl loss to USC, Penn State is a program that has largely been innocent of the non-conference embarrassments characteristic of other Big Ten programs lately; the Nittany Lions had won two bowl games prior to the Rose Bowl meltdown, one against an okay Texas A+M squad in Texas and another against Tennessee, a game prior to which Tennessee boasted a top-20 ranking and the Lions had been unranked. The program, however, still bears the mark of what its fans call The Dark Years, and up until 2008, the struggles against Ohio State and Michigan had held the program back from rejoining the ranks of the truly elite. 2008 was in many ways a breakthrough year; Penn State beat both Ohio State and (an admittedly down) Michigan, and if the Big Ten's championship-deciding rules weren't so archaic, the Lions would have won the conference outright. Up until the final weeks of the season, Penn State was seen as a national title contender, whose legitimacy was questioned - in my mind, unfairly at times - due to Ohio State's falls-from-grace in the prior two championship games. While the losses to USC and Iowa stung for Nittany fans, 2008 provided renewed confidence in Paterno and the newly-explosive offense.

But they still have one more hump to get over. They have to be able to repeat that success to at least some degree, and channel it into another solid (i.e. no more than two loss) conference season. If they don't, the "once-a-recruiting-cycle" nature of Penn State's national relevance will continue to stain the program. The Big Ten will have to suffer through another year of being considered Ohio State, and then everybody else. No pressure or anything, guys.

But if they're relatively successful, Big Ten detractors will have a difficult time deriding the conference as a "one-team league", and it'll only get more difficult if the Rich Rodriguez experiment shows signs of life at Michigan. I frequently find myself reminding my fellow Ohio State fans that if the conference is to truly get better, the Buckeyes will have to take their share lumps in the process.* Personally, as a fan who wants to see his team win every game, I don't think it's worth it, but perhaps that's just me. However, if you're one of the people who really, genuinely cares about "conference strength", you want Penn State to show some sort of staying power. They don't necessarily have to win the conference, but they have to be competitive in every single game, win about ten of them, and ideally, they need to win their bowl game as well.

Penn State players you should care about:

On a schematic level, Jared Odrick had about as much to do with Penn State's win as Aaron Maybin swallowing Bryant Browning whole. Odrick literally tore up the offensive interior for four quarters, and was a big reason why Beanie Wells was held to 55 yards rushing on 22 carries. Of course, Navarro Bowman, he of the 106 freaking tackles in his redshirt freshman year, had a bit to do with that as well. Both will terrorize the offensive line, and if neither can be blocked, Ohio State's offense will be done. Evan Royster didn't quite tear up the Buckeye defense last year, but he provided some consistency on a night where Daryll Clark could provide none, toting the rock 19 times for 77 yards.

Fun with statistics:

Penn State's rushing defense last year was a killer, killer outfit, and given that they return Odrick, Bowman, and Sean Lee (from injury), it might be even better this year. Five teams - Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana and Illinois - went over 100 yards rushing on the Nittany Lion defense, and all of them except Wisconsin had one run that went for 30 yards or more on its own. Oh, and Iowa. But Iowa had Shonn Greene. Basically, if that one run that killed them against Indiana, Illinois and Michigan didn't happen, it would have been in the conversation as one of the most dominant rushing defenses in the Big Ten this decade. USC, a little busy torching the Lions' secondary through the air, managed only 61 yards on 35 carries in the Rose Bowl.

Penn State had nine guys with over 100 yards receiving at the end of the season to Ohio State's five. Fortunately for us, the three most productive of those guys - Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood and Derrick Williams - are gonesie.

How big was Aaron Maybin to Penn State last year? Well, he account for more than 1/3rd of their 33 sacks. Odrick was their next-leading sack artist, but Josh Gaines and Maurice Evans, a due that accounted for seven combined sacks last year, are lost to graduation and the draft. All told, Penn State lost more than half of their sacks off of last year's unit.

As a result, this is where I start salivating: Lydell Sargeant, Tony Davis, and Mark Rubin are no more; they have ceased to be, and the only returning guy of note in the secondary is AJ Wallace. And uh, yeah about AJ Wallace....

My prediction: Alright, you're going to have to bear with me on this. I think Terrelle Pryor is going to do fairly well against the Nittany Lions, and here's why: last year, he had his best passing day of the season, yards-wise, against the Lions. This year, he'll do much of the same. Expect him to get a good amount of time in the pocket and rack up some impressive stats, but the Penn State front seven is going to clog the rushing lanes at critical junctures late in the game. In the end, Penn State will walk away having given Ohio State a tough 17-13 loss, as the Buckeyes end up settling for one too many field goals after multiple promising drives. I should note that I personally do not think this Penn State squad goes undefeated in the Big Ten, losing probably at Illinois. Nevertheless, Penn State's front seven, featuring what might be the best linebacking corps in America , will be simply too good for a Buckeye offense that'll probably still be relying quite heavily on its ground game to overcome.

A Nittany Lion's Thoughts: Kevin from BSD was kind enough to oblige us with his opinions on the game, as well as whether or not this really is a rivalry.

1. Do you consider Penn State - Ohio State a rivalry? If so, why?

Yes, and I'll try to keep this concise.

I wrote a bit about this in the magazine, but basically I see the evolution of this thing following the path that the some southern schools have taken. For so long you had OSU and UM as consistent Big Ten winners, with others unable to maintain any lasting stature as a consistent threat.

The way this works is if Penn State is able to put the Dark Years behind them and become that third party threat. Purists on your end will probably claim there can only be one Game, but guess what: Michigan has a pretty solid rivalry with Notre Dame, and that's been able to co-exist for an awful long time with their conference finale.

So how is a school like Florida is able to have multiple rivals and no one gets into pissing contests about which one is best? FSU is an important game for them, but so in Miami, and they have the Cocktail Party with Georgia...it's all gravy and it only makes there season better.

And it's really only discussion about Michigan that makes this a question in the first place. PSU and OSU share a border and recruiting ground and your Best Player Ever is from our state. Only our two schools have won the conference championship in the last four years and we are picked 1-2 again in 2009. Gameday has been to this game four years in a row, they've only been to Ohio State-Michigan twice in that time.

I'm not trying to discount your game with UM, it's great yada yada, but I do find it funny how important it is for Big Ten lovers (from all schools) to put games into very distinct and well defined boxes rather than just looking at the reality of the situation: which is that when teams repeatedly compete for high stakes natural "rivalness" occurs.

I blame it all on the damn trophies.

2. Name a player opposing fans should be aware of; preferably one that don't already know about.

Well you might have heard we lost the three long time, well regarded receivers who dominate Penn State's career receiving records. Even though just about everyone bashed them in their 2008 previews as undersized and over-hyped (or alternatively: underwhelming and unimpressive), we are apparently all going to die and looking at the total abomination of our passing game.

But the team will try to throw anyway, and although I could pick a couple of guys who may or may not break out, I'll name-drop Derek Moye. He'll be the deep threat and at 6-5 has the ability to (in time) be a more imposing Butler-type because of his athletic ability. He can by most accounts fly and should help at the very least open the field up a bit.

3. Taking off the blue and white-colored rec specs, what do you think Penn State's regular-season record will be?

I hate making predictions and so prefer a kind of caveated cop out. We looked at some of the early lines and Penn State isn't a pre-season do g in any game they play. This makes me want to say 12-0 is saying something like below 11-1 is a kind of disappointment.

But I'm not really that optimistic. Ohio State as you know will be very good this year, Iowa is early enough to give a developing team some problems, and Illinois scares the hell out of me because if Williams shows up that offense will be impossible to stop. Basically: 9-3 is a very real possibility.

4. Make an off-the-cuff prediction for the Ohio State game.

Off-the-cuff? Sure: Penn State 16 Ohio State 10 on a cold as hell day where Royster and Green outplay Herron and Saine.

I can personally verify from extensive playing and replaying of this game on NCAA 09 that Derek Moye is indeed a terror to cover. Well, pixellated Derek Moye anyway. Leave your thoughts on the game below.

A Way Too Early Look At The 2009 Schedule - Week 7 - Penn State

JG2112 — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 15:30:12 -0000

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

6 months ago: Penn State football coach Joe Paterno pauses after he talked to media, Thursday, June 11, 2009, in State College, Pa. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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Penn State: At a glance:

Location: University Park, Pennsylvania
Stadium: Beaver Stadium (size: 107,282)
Expected Attendance: about 109,000.
Undergraduate population: 44,512.
First season: 1887
Number of Big Ten Titles: 3
All-time record: 800-349-32
All-time bowl record: 26-13-2.

Most awesome alum: undoubtedly Jonathan Frakes, better known as William T. Riker and "#1" on the new Star Trek series.

Most awesome Penn State fan site: Red, er, Black Shoe Diaries of course.

And here comes the Big Ten buzzsaw.

Much has changed since the last time these two teams played in 2006, a referee-assisted 28-27 overtime victory for the Nittany Lions at Metrodump. The Gophers have a new coach, a new stadium, and have switched offensive philosophies twice. For Penn State...errr......Joe Pa...errr....Darryl Cla......good linebac......okay, so much has changed for Minnesota since 2006.

This year Indiana and Michigan drop off the Gophers' schedule. It looks pretty bad, however, when one realizes that Penn State (11-2 in 2008) and Michigan State (9-4 in 2008) rotate on to the schedule. The Gophers get the "good" fortune to play their seventh game in 2009, and their second conference road game, in the pale fury of University Park, PA against the Fighting Paternos.

Why good? Well, Minnesota should be 5-1 or 4-2 going into the game (um, right?). If so, perhaps a repeat of the stirring victory over then #2 Penn State in 1999 could be in the offing. Whether that happens depends a lot upon injuries, morale, and players. Speaking of players, we're going to fly solo and analyze the Nittany Lions, starting with....

More after the jump.....

Penn State on Offense - You may have heard of Darryl Clark. Heck, your grandparents may have seen him play in the ‘40s. Clark returns as a fifth-year senior, but is six years' removed from high school, so he's closer to legally renting a car than he is to gaining the right to vote. In 2008, he completed almost 60% of his passes, throwing 19 TDs against only 6 INTs. He also ran for 10 TDs. His backup, Paul Devlin, transferred to Joe Flacco U., so true freshman (as well as Michigan and Virginia de-commit) Kevin Newsome backs him up. Seeing how Newsome struggled in the Lions' spring game, Penn State is an injury away from quarterbacking incompetence.

Penn State's five top rushing threats return, highlighted by Evan Royster and Stephon Green. Royster gained 1236 yards at 6.47 ypc, and Green gained 578 yards at 5.50 ypc. This will be the obvious focal point for the Gophers' defense, because.....

.....Penn State's three senior receivers (Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood and Derrick Williams) all graduated, taking a majority of the receptions with them. Top returning wideouts include Graham Zug, Brett Brackett, and James "DUI" McDonald. This part of the offense will likely be functional but non-threatening at the time of the Gopher game. The wideouts' inexperience should allow Traye Simmons to help the run defense, hopefully neutralizing Royster and Green.

The Lions also lose three all Big Ten offensive linemen, though they have Stefen Wisniewski moving to center and Dennis Landolt at right tackle. New 6'5", 313-pound left tackle (and gloriously named) DeOn'tae Pannell will have to step in and perform at a high level to ensure the rushing game does not stall.

Bottom Line - Penn State's Offense: The offense will likely take a step back from its production in 2008. If Clark, Royster, and/or Wisniewski spend any significant period of time out injured, the offense will have significant production issues. Minnesota's large defensive line and mobile linebackers should be able to at least hang with the rushing attack, and the defensive backfield should handle the Lions' inexperienced wideouts. Due to Tramaine Brock's departure, however, we can count on at least one video replay with Ryan Collado trailing a wideout into the end zone.

Penn State on Defense: Linebacker U., right? Shane Conlan, Paul Pozlusny, Leapin' LaVar Arrington. Lately, Penn State has also churned out a number of solid defensive linemen, including 2009 draftees Aaron Maybin and Maurice Evans.

Well, wait a moment. Evans wasn't drafted, which begs a couple of questions. Was the NFL correct in determining Evans made a mistake in coming out early? Did Evans consider himself too good for college? What is left in State College? Well, Jared Odrick for one. Odrick had 41 tackles last year, 9.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Also, Jack Crawford is new to the sport, being British and all (check that name), but he is highly regarded in Pennsylvania (as well as Portsmouth, for that matter) and will be expected to contribute. Ollie Ogbu and Abe Koroma are also returning linemen.

As for linebackers, well, if you follow a police blotter, you may have read some stuff about Navorro Bowman this off-season (all the action should serve Bowman well: he's a Crime, Law and Justice major, which I presume is University-Speak for "Wants to Be a Cop or District Attorney if he tears his knee up"). It seems JoePa is satisfied Bowman is ready to play football instead of smoking spliffs or beating up coeds. This is too bad for Duane Bennett, et al, as Bowman had 106 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, and 4 INT's last year.

Also returning after a year out due to injury is LB Sean Lee. He was all Big Ten in 2007 before tearing his ACL, and will undoubtedly be a tough block for the Gophers' O-line.

Wide receivers are the big question mark on offense. On defense, it's the defensive backfield. All starters have moved on, leaving CBs AJ Wallace and (really?) Knowledge Timmons and Ss Drew Astorino and Cedric Jeffries, as well as a cavalcade of 2009 signees, to take their place. This is where Gophers Offensive Coordinator Jedd Fisch should be picking on the defense, if he is the offensive genius Coach Brewster has made him out to be.

Bottom line - Penn State's Defense: The defense will step back this year from their dominating 2008 performance. Odrick, Bowman and Lee form about 40 % of a solid front seven. However, the defensive secondary is untested and has little experience. The Gophers should abandon any pretense of balance in their offensive attack in this game, spread five wideouts, get Pittman, Stoudermire, Brandon, McKnight, Kuznia, Decker, and Carpenter in space against the untested secondary, and pick them apart.

Penn State on Special Teams: 4-year starter Kevin Kelly departs, with either (Michigan de-commit) Anthony Fera or Colin Wagner assuming the kicking duties for Penn State's all-time leading scorer. Jeremy Boone, a senior returns as punter with a 43.03 ypk average from 2008.

One additional point bears mentioning regarding PSU's special teams. The youngest and most inexperienced areas of Penn State's team are their wideouts and defensive backfield. Kickoff return teams normally field some reserve players from these units. As the starters for Penn State are younger, the backups are even younger. Troy Stoudermire should be able to exploit these players' inexperience and youth and have some big returns at Beaver Stadium.

Bottom Line: What to Expect

Minnesota is Penn State's Homecoming opponent. We are sandwiched between a home game against Eastern Illinois (heh?) and a road game against Michigan. We could be the beneficiary of a team which wasn't really tested the prior week. Also, if the Wolverines improve, Minnesota could be the beneficiary of a team looking ahead to a 3-game stretch including Michigan, Northwestern and Ohio State.

As for the Gophers, this is the start of what looks to be a bad stretch of games, including a road game at Ohio State, home games against Michigan State and Illinois, an off week against South Dakota State, and then the battle for the Pig. This is the best chance to beat one of those scheduled "rough games." Penn State has little experience at wideout, even less in the defensive backfield, and is exploitable in special teams. If the Gophers spread the field and pick on Penn State's defense, the Gophers could walk out of Pennsylvania with a victory.

Minnesota 38
Penn State 34

Your say....

Poll

Who will win on October 17th?

Minnesota

41 votes

Penn State

369 votes

410 votes | Poll has closed

Plow Horses - The Case Against Penn State

Bama Hawkeye — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 17:07:54 -0000

The case against Penn State is based upon an idea that I've had brewing for the better part of two months. Each year, the preseason picks come out with surprising unanimity. Sure, some might have Oklahoma at 2 and others might have Texas at 2, but it's not like there is a pollster who is picking Kentucky to finish in the Top 10. And yet, last year a team coming off a 7-6 season, in the same division as the defending national champion, with a road game at the defending champion, ended up 12-2 and #6 (Alabama). I'm not picking Kentucky to pull that off. But...if all you do is think like the group, all you'll get is the group's answers. Picking which near .500 team will end up in the Top 10 is too tough for my simple mind. Sure, I can see Notre Dame, Colorado, Clemson, North Carolina St., or Minnesota pulling it off, but I wouldn't predict which one (though I listed them in my guess of likelihood). However, I think that it is safe to predict that a BCS team that finished with 5-7 wins last year will end up in the Top 10 this year.

But picking which team is being overrated - which team is a flop waiting to happen? That seems easier. Last year, I thought that Clemson was being given far too much love as a Top 15/borderline Top 10 team at the start of the season. This wasn't because of a lack of faith in Tommy Bowden. Instead, I looked for my personal recipe for over-ranking: too many show ponies and not enough plow horses.

JoePa finds out how this ties in with Penn State after the break...

When I clerked as a summer associate at a large firm in a Big Ten city, I had a wonderful experience working with a labor and employment attorney who handled union negotiations for a number of major employers. One of the things he said stuck with me in my practice, and is relevant here as well. "Some lawyers," he said, "you might think of as show ponies. They look good when you put them in a hearing or in front of a jury. But, they don't win because they're good show ponies. They win because they're better plow horses. For every day that they get to show off how good they are, there are twenty days that no one sees in which they just have to do the dirty work. That's why they win. They win because they're plow horses."

When I see a team that returns its quarterback and skill position players, but loses the offensive line, I immediately think about show ponies and plow horses. On the defense, I look to the front seven to see what's coming back. I don't trust a team that has too many holes there (unless that team has a mascot that rhymes with "Grojans." Until proven differently, these rules do not apply to them.)

Let's look at Clemson in the Summer of 2008. Returning quarterback? Yes. Cullen Harper was a Senior who was second team All-ACC the season before. Returning Skill Players? Yes. There was first team All-ACC RB James Davis, who was backed up by speedster and second team All-ACC RB C.J. Spiller. Throw in four returning starters at WR and TE (Clemson operated out of a three WR formation as its base), and you have a ridiculous amount of talent coming back. Give those pretty looking show ponies a BCS bid!

Or...we can look at their plow horses. The D-Line actually wasn't in too bad of shape, returning three of four. It was the linebackers that were the problem. The lone returning backer was kicked off the team over the summer. That meant four new faces in the front seven. Not great, but not awful. No, the awful part was on the other side of the ball - four new starters for a line that had problems the year before. None of the starters were seniors. That's a huge red flag. Where are the experienced plow horses? Send them to a lower-tier bowl!

You'll notice Clemson's Offensive Line in the background. It's busy not blocking.

Sure, the truth (due to a fantastic fan base) is somewhere in between, but here's the thing. Experience matters, but it matters in some places more than others. The three positions where it matters most are at QB, OL and D-Front Seven. I can only offer my reasoning as to why. Quarterbacks and linebackers are thinking positions. The more you've seen in-game conditions, the more prepared you are to properly react. The O-Line and D-Line require size and repetition. By nature, a man will grow bigger and stronger between the ages of 20 and 22 (and if a lineman doesn't, that's the strength coach's issue). More than that, a Sophomore isn't going to have the repetitions and experience that the Senior will.

So let's look at Penn State.

Skill Positions: Daryll Clark was very good last year. He's back for a 6^th season. Evan Royster was very good last year. He's back for a second year starting. Those are two impressive show ponies. The experience isn't there at WR, as the top three from last year have moved on (Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood combined for 132 catches for 1,932 yards and 17 touchdowns). When you really look at it, Penn State is a little light on show ponies. Clark and Royster deserve the accolades, but I'd be concerned about the loss of the entire wide receiver corps.

Defensive Front Seven: Depending on how you count it, you either have three or four starters returning. The linebacking corps will be very good, but the rush ends, including first round draft pick Aaron Maybin, need to be replaced. I feel compelled to mention that the front seven better quickly learn how to get good pressure, because the ENTIRE secondary will be new. That's seven or eight new starters on the defensive side of the ball. That would make me nervous.

Offensive Line: Last year's offensive line had three All-Big Ten selections. It was the best line in the Big Ten and one of the best at Penn State in the last twenty years. They're gone. This will be a problem. Phil Steele compiled the data of returning starts by offensive linemen. I love these numbers. Obviously, it doesn't mean that the team with more returning starts will beat the team with fewer starts, but it does give hard data for my plow horses. Any school with more than 90 starts returning is in the Top 20% of Division I. Any school with fewer than 50 starts returning is in the bottom 25% of Division I. Everyone else is in the middle, where experience is unlikely be a strength or weakness.

Big Ten - Returning Offensive Line Starts
Minnesota	102
Iowa	99
Indiana	84
Michigan	76
Purdue	68
Northwestern	64
Ohio Sate	62
Michigan State	52
Illinois	49
Wisconsin	49
Penn State	39

Not good for Penn State, wouldn't you say?

So what do I see for Penn State? I envision Evan Royster swallowed up before he gets a chance to move out of the backfield. I picture Daryll Clark constantly throwing on the run to new receivers. I see a new secondary picked apart after the front seven fails to get pressure. But, I still see Penn State picking up 7 or 8 wins because of the schedule. They'll breeze through their four non-con games (Akron, Temple, Syracuse, Eastern Illinois...seriously?). But, I see the Lions losing at least four of their conference games. I think that they'll split with Iowa and Minnesota in Happy Valley. They'll blow out Indiana, but they'll lose to the OSU. On the road, they could lose each one. They won't, but it's in the realm of possibility. I'll take losses at the Big House and East Lansing and wins in Evanston and Madison Cham-bana (I was thinking Illinois and typing Wisconsin. My bad). That equals 8-4, with two losses in their last three weeks (in what will still be considered a weak Big Ten). I bet that ends up outside of the Top 25. I still see this comment being true.

We're All Growns Up, And Making Bryce Paup References

Kevin HD — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 12:32:06 -0000

More photos » by Don Heupel - AP

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I've always found the draft a bit of an odd thing. On one hand fans typically like to see their players to get drafted early and take pride in how many players were taken by teams in The League. But then again, fans dread and seethe scorn when a player jumps for the cash, and also can't feel good about so many talented players not being around for the next college football season.

Anyway, five Penn State players were taken in the seven round draft, second most in the conference to Ohio State, and another nine guys were signed as of the time of this post.

Aaron Maybin - Pick 11, Round 1 (11) - Bills

Project Mayhem, who came out of nowhere in 2008, did The Pass Rush Factory well on Saturday, confirming the jump was indeed a pretty good move.

There were early rumors that Maybin could go as high as five with the Browns looking at so many holes, but most of the recent projections had him in the 10-12 range. The 'experts' can score this one as correct, and Buffalo Rumblings is pleased:

On paper, Buffalo has its most explosive pass rusher since Bryce Paup...What makes this pick better is the fact that they took the right player. No DE displayed a quicker first step in college or at the Combine than Maybin. I had him rated as the top DE on the board the moment he declared for the draft, and the Bills clearly followed suit, if only at the most critical juncture. I think he's the best pass rusher in the draft. The Bills, too, think he's the best pass rusher in the draft, and his upside is tremendous.

Derrick Williams - Pick 18, Round 3 (82) - Lions

No one deserves a little draft luck like Williams, the former #1 rated recruit in the land was taken in the third round and, for the second time in his career, will be tasked with helping to rebuild a program in distraught.

The Pride of Detroit gives the pick a D+, which is, well not even a real grade if I remember right. Regardless, they didn't like the pick, although I think that had a lot to do with Williams not really filling one of their copious amounts of needs like some of the other players who were still on the board.

The Lions have a history of dismissing important needs and picking wide receivers, and as bad as a D+ is, I have to give him credit for his optimism. If I was cursed with being a Lions fan for the past several years, every decision that organization made would get an F- by default until something dramatic happens. I would probably just be that bitter.

The Free Press has a couple of quotes about the pick:

Kiper's response:

"He came into Penn State and he was supposed to wow everybody. He didn't initially, but came on. ... He doesn't have the great 40 time, but he's quick out of his burst, out of his cuts. He has that burst you look for and has the ability to score in a lot of ways -- in the return game, on reverses, catching the football. He's very good after the catch in the open field."

You hear things like this all the time and I gave up a long time ago trying to argue about it. Williams was no Reggie Bush or Tim Tebow, but he was important, in a way that the occasional observer wouldn't recognize. I don't blame anyone for this, I completely understand how his stats can be seen as underwhelming, but let's drop the whole "never lived up to the hype" thing, because to be frank it's a stupid comment.

Mayock's response:

"II thought he had an excellent Senior Bowl, but he followed it up with a poor Combine, running a 4.67 -- very slow for an elite receiver. Great Senior Bowl, but too many drops in his career. ... I watched him catch punts one day (at the Senior Bowl) and this is supposed to be an elite punt returner and that day if the football had been a harpoon, he'd have been dead. It'd have pierced his chest."

He was reportedly pretty sick the week of the combine and told by his agent to sit the thing out. He worked out anyway, which was indeed a bad decision, but as we've talked about before here at BSD looked great in the Senior Bowl.

And I have no idea where he's going with that harpoon analogy.

Deon Butler - Pick 27, Round 3 (91) - Seahawks

About four picks before Butler was drafted by Seattle, a commenter who shall remain nameless set the over/under at pick 114 in the open thread, a fourth round choice. I too was a bit surprised to see him go so early, but his blazing 40 at the combine apparently helped the draft stock of one of the most under-the-radar receivers in the nation last year.

Seattle loves them some record setting Penn State receivers, of course, and so we all saw this coming:

"He has some of the same traits as far as route-running goes," Seahawks offensive coordinator Greg Knapp said when asked to compare Butler to his fellow PSU alumnus. "He's not as polished, obviously, as Bobby is."

Rich Ohrnberger - Pick 23, Round 4 (123) - Patriots

Ohrnberger was probably the biggest surprise from a Penn State perspective, who many thought wouldn't go until after Shipley and Cadogan. Not true, of course. Ohrnberger will be buried on the depth chart this season, but was part of an effort to hedge against an aging line:

Ohrnberger, a player who took a pre-draft visit to Gillette Stadium, adds youth to the interior of the offensive line and provides a fallback, longer-term option with starting guards Logan Mankins (left) and Stephen Neal (right) entering the final year of their contracts.

PatsBlog likes the pick, even if it did cost them a well respected cornerback in Ellis Hobbs:

Ohrnberger is a guy I actually like. Although he is undersized, he plays with a good motor, is quick out of his stance, and is good in pass protection and pulling. Solid pick who could eventually take over for Stephen Neal at right guard.

A.Q. Shipley - Pick 17, Round 7 (226) - Steelers

There was a time when I though A.Q. might not get drafted, and at that time I was thinking it would be the most bewildering event (or non-event?) of the weekend.

He is undersized, and probably slid because of it, but once picked I found it hard to feel bad for a guy who gets to play for his hometown team. The Steelers earned overall "grades" as low as an F and as high as an A+, further lending credibility to the practice of grading drafts.

Naturally the local papers loved it. Not everyone was sold, though:

Can't say I'm too big a fan of Big 10 football so I can't comment on whether or not Shipley is so adored for his local product status, his ability on the field, or some combination of the two. Probably headed for the practice squad as well, but there's an interesting discussion to be had about the future of our offensive line - especially for those who have an opinion one way or another as to whether or not Shipley legitimately could be a better than average starting center....

I'm not sure if he's upset the Steelers picked a kid from the Big Ten or if he simply doesn't know much about A.Q. It's not like the Big Ten hasn't produced some decent linemen in the last five years. Besides, as far as risk and reward go, there's nothing wrong with picking the conference's best center in the seventh round and hoping it works out.

Quickly: Signed but undrafted...

It's easy to pile on Maurice Evans at this point; he goes undrafted but signs with the Giants. As disappointed as I am in his 2008 production and decision to leave, I can unconditionally say I wish him all the best.

Jordan Norwood will join the Browns, and Facebook Stalking H/T to NittanyWhiteOut, who was all over this one.

Gerald Cadogan was a major surprise as an undrafed free agent. He'll go to Carolina.

Lydell Sargeant will move north to help build Penn State another satellite campus in Buffalo. Front page promotion for the best photoshop of this one in the comments.

Tyrell Sales signs with the Colts.

Josh Gaines stays in-state with the Eagles.

Dan Lawlor signs with the Redskins.

Mark Rubin signed with the Rams.

Anthony Scirrotto signs with the Panthers.

Seahawks Draft Grade: Deon Butler

John Morgan — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 22:09:42 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Deon Butler might benefit from Seneca Wallace's arm strength. Wallace might benefit from Butler's deep speed. Hopefully only in the preseason.

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Deon Butler

Upside:

Today I write in broad strokes. In the coming weeks we will cover each prospect in much greater detail. Because my scouting of Butler is limited to the Rose Bowl, and not in the intense, scrutinous way one must to make much sense out of one game, this is grade is constructed of scouting reports, agility drills and some first-hand scouting.

Butler has very good speed and is a good route runner. That's an A+ combination for a pro. He played on a Penn State program that couldn't assemble a passing offense if it was made of Duplos. That's in part why his statistics are only good. Those statistics have a mitigating and compounding* factor. Penn State only threw for 3,160 yards Butler's senior year, meaning Butler received for more than a quarter of his team's total passing yards. Compare that to Michael Crabtree's 21.7%.

Butler's a mixed bag with good skills and talent, but disputable production. He could develop into a top twenty wide receiver, maybe better.

Downside:

He could develop into a top twenty receiver and could not develop at all. It's tough interpreting a scouting report and trying to determine if Butler is "destined to play the slot" because he (was) 168 pounds, or because he has trouble separating. I worry it's the latter. Good to great wide receivers are scarce, and though a third round pick is a lot of draft capital, most third round wide receivers do not develop. When that third round pick is acquired by trading a third round pick, a high fourth round pick and a high sixth round pick, it's suddenly a substantial investment.

*The compounding factor is Butler was mostly shutdown by top competition and recorded nearly half of his production against benighted former titans Michigan, Michigan State and Syracuse. All three finished outside the top fifty in pass defense.

Seattle's offense needs Butler to play more than slot, and since his downside is a mediocre slot receiver, Butler's downside is of no use to Seattle. Too bad it's at least probable.

Fit:

Seattle sees Butler as a split end and thinks he will give the team much needed speed. The team needs speed, but not until it has a quarterback that can exploit it. Perhaps the short-term goal is only to keep the safety off the slot. Part of slotting Butler at split end instead of slot is Greg Knapp doesn't use many three wide receiver sets. In Oakland in 2007, Knapp ran three+ wide receiver sets just 45%¹ of all snaps (22^nd) and four+ wide receiver sets just 4% of all snaps (29^th). That's also part of why Seattle selected Butler over a slower, more slot-oriented receiver like Juaquin Iglesias. Butler is a hardy blocker, but, you guessed it, his former slightness convinced scouts his blocking skills will not translate to the pros. Butler fits if he hits his upside and doesn't fit at all if he nears his downside.

^{1 Pro Football Prospectus 2008}

Seattle Seahawks 2009 Draft Recap

John Morgan — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 23:30:46 -0000

More photos » by Jason DeCrow - AP

Seattle's draft was about the future. Seattle lost Julian Peterson and formerly franchised linebacker Leroy Hill is now a free agent. In light of that, drafting Aaron Curry is a lateral move at best for 2009. Check back in 2012, when Peterson is approaching retirement and Curry is terrorizing the league.

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Draft coverage continues on Monday. We'll do full tape analysis of every Seahawks pick. Tomorrow we start with Max Unger and discuss his potential and his potential at guard.

Field Gulls Draft Day Coverage:

Aaron Curry by John Morgan

Aaron Curry by Doug Farrar

Courtney Greene, Nick Reed and Cameron Morrah

Seattle's Free Agent Signings

Gut Reaction: Seattle adds some talent to put itself back into contention, if outside contention, but Tim Ruskell mostly defers to the future. Aaron Curry is the near-consensus best player in this entire draft, with some calling him a once in a decade linebacker talent. In the short term, with the loss of Julian Peterson and the free agency possible loss of Leroy Hill, this is a lateral move. Curry will be a pro and in his prime when Peterson retires. I love Leroy Hill. I love his ability to explode the screen, blow up the lead blocker and explode into rushers before they achieve positive yards. Curry may never be as good as Hill, but he probably. He'll probably be amazingly better.

Max Unger is another nod to the future. Unger is a center by designation, but an offensive lineman by trade. His slightness might force him to stick at center, but I prefer him at guard. If he's a guard he can be an improvement right away and really solidify Seattle's move to a zone blocking scheme. If he sticks at center, that means the end of the Chris Spencer era, and I know many are saying "not soon enough".

Seattle added some talent at wide receiver and quarterback. Wide receiver Deon Butler is a burner with good route running skills. People are comparing him to Deion Branch and fellow Penn State alumni Bobby Engram, but his skill-set and talent is more like Lee Evans. Butler is a tenacious blocker who added almost 20 pounds before going pro. Mike Teel is a legend at Rutgers. He looks like a David Greene pick.

The big move of the draft, bigger even maybe that selecting Aaron Curry, is Seattle trading their second round pick for Denver's first round pick in 2010. Before losing Jay Cutler, the Broncos were likely to decline. Given that loss and their coaching instability, Seattle's pick could be in the top ten.

Finally, Seattle wrapped it up with three project picks. Nick Reed is a pass rush specialist that needs to get up to NFL speed and NFL size. Courtney Greene is a big upside strong safety that will need time on the practice squad to learn how not be made foolish my NFL offensive coordinators and NFL quarterbacks. Cameron Morrah is an athletic tight end that might play something closer to a wide receiver role in Seattle.

All in all, like it or not, Tim Ruskell is looking towards the future. To better tomorrows.

Rumblings Authors Mock, V2.0 - WABillsfan's Take

Brian Galliford — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 04:15:07 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

8 months ago: FILE - In this Jan. 1, 2008 file photo, Tennessee defensive end Robert Ayers (91) sacks Wisconsin quarterback Tyler Donovan (12) during the second quarter of the Outback Bowl football game in Tampa, Fla. Ayers is a top prospect in the 2009 NFL Draft. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius, File)

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Ed. Note, by Brian Galliford: Our resident left-coaster, WABillsfan, takes center stage in the wee hours of the morning (east coast time) to present the seventh of nine Rumblings Authors Mocks, which you've been reading (perhaps with a bit more anxiety for the weekend each go of it) over the past five days. What does WA think the Buffalo Bills should do this coming weekend? We'll let him explain himself from here. End Note

Trades
We move Roscoe Parrish to the Titans after talks with Kansas City do not go very far, as they wanted too much in conjunction with Roscoe to get OG Brian Waters. We get the No. 130 pick from the Titans in exchange for him; the Titans need an established return man who can also help out Kerry Collins in the passing game.

We then call the Buccaneers and offer them Chris Kelsay for their seventh rounder, just trying to unload the salary he commands. The Bucs still need to add some bodies to reach the salary cap floor, so they do the deal and we get the No. 217 pick.

Draft picks
11, 28, 42, 75, 110, 121, 130, 147, 183, 217, 220

Top Ten (for both mocks)
1-1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
1-2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
1-3. Kansas City Chiefs: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
1-4. Seattle Seahawks: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
1-5. Cleveland Browns: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
1-6. Cincinnati Bengals: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
1-7. Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
1-8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
1-9. Green Bay Packers: Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
1-10. San Francisco 49ers: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas

Mock One: Bills Take OT Early
1-11: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama. Fat man, meet Bills fans. Now don't become the next Mike Williams.

1-28: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee. Either Ayers or Michael Johnson is the pick here if they are still around at this point. Clay Matthews is also a possibility, especially if the ends are gone by then.

2-42: Max Unger, G/C, Oregon. We luck into the find of the year, getting ourselves a superior swing player to start immediately at RG (since I think Brad Butler will move to LG in this situation to assist Smith at LT). He can also play C in a pinch too! Langston Walker gets to stay at RT - his normal spot - and we now have Seth McKinney, Kirk Chambers and Demetrius Bell as backups.

3-75: Jason Williams, LB, Western Illinois. Tyrone McKenzie or Marcus Freeman work here, too. McKenzie is my first choice, but I think Williams could be a fine SLB as well. I have a feeling we will not see McKenzie make it to us at this spot, though. I think we end up with Williams, who is a heady player (called all the shots on his team's D), has great sideline-to-sideline speed, can strip the ball, fill in the hole and also can play coverage. I think he might push Keith Ellison to the bench by mid-season if we get him signed and onto the practice field ASAP.

The rest of this mock, as well as a "no-OT-early" scenario, after the jump.

4-110: Cornelius Ingram, TE, Florida. We need someone better to pair up with our boy Derek Fine, and I think Ingram could be it. Yeah, he got hurt last year, and there are some concerns about his knee, but he was showing some serious pass catching ability, has the size to become a good blocker with some tutoring. Otherwise it might end up being Bear Pascoe, which would allow us to go with heavy sets of two TE and our behemoth line for Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch to run behind.

4-121: Lardarius Webb, CB, Nicholls State. Here we get obligatory DB pick so Dick Jauron can get that out of his system. This kid is an interesting person due to his speed (4.35), the fact he has return experience, and his 5 INT last season - three of which he returned for scores. He also ran the ball 9 times for 129 yards and caught a pass for 27, so he can do it all - our own Jack Of All Trades to help the team out. He is a player I would consider grabbing slightly early to insure Bobby April is kept happy.

4-130: The Ghost of Rob Johnson. (Ed. Note, by BG: Good ol' WA re-tooled his mock so many times that he straight up forgot he traded Roscoe Parrish. The Bills passed on the pick all the way until the close of the draft - experts continue to debate whether there was, in fact, a "Mr. Irrelevant" this year.)

5-147: Sammie Lee Hill, DT, Stillman. A very big boy, this small school prospect could be a steal when he gets some tutoring at the pro level and gets to learn from a guy like Marcus Stroud. He had 14 tackles for a loss and 4.5 sacks this past year, so he can get to the QB or RB in the backfield. A project to be sure, but one with a lot of upside for this spot.

6-183: Deon Butler, WR, Penn State. PSU's all-time leading receiver, he has shown some serious wheels recently, but is more of a Josh Reed clone in that the kid will do whatever it takes to move the chains. He has quickness, sure hands, and is tough as nails. A former walk on, this is the type of lunch pail player the Bills like to talk about drafting. We also need to fill Parrish's roster spot in the WR corps (Ed. Note by BG: maybe he didn't forget...), and he would do that.

7-217: Mesphin Forrester, S, Washington. This UW product can lay the lumber and also make plays (1 TFL, 2 INT, 2 PBU, 1 FR, 1 FF). The big issue with him is speed (4.52 in the 40) and some concern about tight hips. But hey, this is the seventh round.

7-220: Nader Abdallah, DT, Ohio State. He was known for being a very good run stopper at OSU and this allows the Bills to fill their quota of Buckeyes players to be drafted each year. Luckily it isn't a DB this time around. His line (19 TT, 3 TFL, 1 SK) isn't very impressive, but he was known for taking up two guys on a regular basis. He can pack some more weight on as his frame is large and he is still young. I see him as a practice squad guy whose job is to get bigger and stronger then contribute a year or two down the line.

Mock Two: No OT Early
1-11: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee. We now have Kelsay's replacement on hand, but a much more talented version.

1-20: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State. We trade No. 28 to Detroit along with Nos. 110 and 130. They get shorted a bit on the trade value chart, but they'll take three picks to make it happen.

2-42: Max Unger, G/C, Oregon

3-75: Jason Williams, LB, Western Illinois

4-121: T.J. Lang, OG, Eastern Michigan. Here we get someone who can be a backup for Bell and Unger and let the former college LT duke it out with Unger for the RG spot. He never missed a game and shows good feet. He's not athletic enough to be a NFL LT, but could become a very serviceable RT in a pinch in case we lose Bell and/or Chambers to injury. He plays with a mean streak, and I think he is what the Bills are looking for - big, some athletic ability, and likes to hit people HARD.

5-147: Lardarius Webb, CB, Nicholls State

6-183: Deon Butler, WR, Penn State

7-217: Mesphin Forrester, S, Washington

7-220: Nader Abdallah, DT, Ohio State