SB Nation - Aaron Maybin

Preview: Michigan State vs. Penn State

LVS — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:20:02 -0000

about 1 month ago: Michigan State's Keshawn Martin (82) scores a touchdown on a 48-yard pass reception during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Western Michigan, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in East Lansing, Mich. Michigan State won 49-14. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

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Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN

3:30 (ET), ABC (coverage map)

WEATHER: 52 DEGREES AT KICKOFF, TEMPERATURE FALLING AFTER DUSK.

Hey, a game that's not the most important of the season! Your Spartans obviously did the heavy lifting last week against Purdue; in all likelihood, this game is not about whether MSU will make a bowl, but rather, about whether we're going to San Antonio or Orlando or, of course, rollin' down Woodward to Ford Field (!). Penn State, after a season that has to be characterized as quite disappointing, amazingly still has a shot at a BCS berth. You know the backstory: last season, PSU absolutely demolished us; the season before, however, was good times:

It appears that the play-by-play guy attended the Joe Buck school of announcing excitement. Also, I miss Devin Thomas.

So, here cometh TEH GREATEST RIVALRY GAME IN ALL TEH LAND, and the opportunity to beat a team with a pulse for the first time this season. (Says the guy whose team's best win is against Temple. w00t.) The 8-million member PSU blogosphere and commentariat seems surprisingly reticent about this game. But, after last week's defensive fiasco I'm simply not comfortable picking us to win against teams with competent offenses. Penn State is such a team. I'd love to be proven wrong.

More, after the jump.

Big game plz, Colin.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: At this point, I think the secondary is probably going to suck no matter what we do, so we might as well stack the box to try to stop the run and get as much pressure on Darryl Clark as possible. Indeed, as RUTS told us, this is what you want to do with Clark:

He's like about any other good, but not great, quarterback. If he has a clean pocket and can set his feet, he's as good as anyone in the country. If he gets hit too much, he gets rattled and starts making bad decisions with the ball. In that sense, he can be knocked back into looking like a talented quarterback in his second or third start -- he thinks he can make throws that he can't actually pull off.

Clark struggled mightily in the Iowa and Ohio State games--and even in the Illinois game--because he was under pressure (ding ding ding da da ding ding). Pressuring him may allow Clark some opportunities to scramble (as Brian said earlier this year, he's "not Michael Vick but isn't John Navarre, either."), but it's probably the best chance to contain the PSU offense. PSU partisans seem to think that our defensive line will have success against their offensive line, and pressure Clark heavily; I'm not so certain. Many anticipated that Penn State's offensive line was going to be the downfall of the team this year, as it was the most inexperienced group in the conference. PSU has allowed only 12 sacks on the season, although it looked overmatched against Adrian Clayborn and Cameron Heyward, among others. But, uh, we don't have Clayborn or Heyward; we've got a defensive line which failed to pressure Joey Elliott (until the last play, of course), and hasn't proven the ability to apply pressure on its own. My suspicion is that, if PSU is content to throw from three-step drops, they'll have a lot of success: we won't have the ability to get to Clark that quickly, and our secondary is obviously vulnerable. Bottom line: stack the box, try to get pressure, hope for the best.

And, about those guys Clark will be throwing to: RUTS sez . . .

Starting WR Chaz Powell is out for the game with a shoulder injury. In his place, you'll see a rotating group including the very tall Brett Brackett and the very quick Curtis Drake. Maybe true freshman Justin Brown gets in the game, but I doubt it. Graham Zug had a nightmare game against Indiana last week, but that was mostly due to fumbling punts. He runs good routes and gets open against passive zone coverages. Really, that goes for the whole group -- if you can press and bump them, they become ineffective quickly. [ . . . ]

Derek Moye is probably our best receiver, but he was totally shut out by Ohio State's press coverage and only had two catches for 28 yards against Indiana. Because of that, I suspect PSU will make an effort to get him involved quickly.

Moye is indeed good: 41 catches for 676 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. He's 6'5", 195 pounds . . . and if you're thinking, "holy hell, he's Mike Floyd in disguise," well, yeah, me too. He's not quite there, talent-wise, but, erm, I wouldn't want to be fighting for a jump ball against him. I suspect that our cornerbacks wouldn't want to be, either. And, yeah, about that Quarless guy: he reminds me a lot of Kellen Davis in that he's ludicrous athletically, but the results don't quite meet the expectations. But, the same could be said of Garrett Graham, and that didn't end so well for us earlier this year.

This is probably Evan Royster's last regular season game for Penn State, as most expect him to jump to the NFL.
Last year, he only carried the ball 12 times against MSU, but those carries were relatively successful, as he averaged 6.6 yards per game. This season, he's been a bit up-and-down: he had big games against Northwestern and Minnesota, but not-so-good efforts against Iowa and Ohio State. MSU's rush defense has been mostly a positive this season, although last week was a bit of a regression. I suspect that Royster will approach 100 yards but not be the deciding factor in this game. His backup, Stephfon Green, has intermittently battled injuries and hasn't played much or well since the Illinois game much earlier this season.

Safe to say at this point: one of my all-time favorite Spartan football players.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: . . . we need for Kirk Cousins to have the best game of his career. As a preliminary matter, let's stipulate that we're going to get basically nothing against Penn State on the ground: the Lions are 8th nationally against the run, and our rushing offense is not good. The goal in this game should be to do just enough to semi-effectively set up play action.

Ah, so the main event: MSU's passing offense vs. Penn State's pass defense. It starts wtih the offensive line, obviously. Penn State doesn't have Tamba Hali or Courtney Brown or anyone of similar fear-producing ability, but the stats are certainly there: they lead the conference in sacks, and while Brian noted that:

[t]he numbers are impressive—PSU is 11th nationally with three sacks per game—but there is the whole schedule thing to take into account. Jack Crawford has four sacks, all of which come against the Akrons and Temples on the schedule. In Penn State's three real-ish games, they acquired one sack (Odrick) against Minnesota, three (Crawford, Latimore, Stanley) against Illinois, and two (Hull and Crawford/Lynn) against Iowa.

. . . Penn State sacked Forcier/Robinson 5 times, and then, the next week, sacked Mike Kafka 6 times. Since then, things have cooled down a bit: they weren't able to sack Terrelle Pryor (although Pryor is surely one of the most difficult sacks in the country), and were only able to get to Ben Chappell twice last week. Nonetheless, this is an impressive line; they're led by scary beast Jared Odrick, who has 6 sacks, and the aforementioned Jack Crawford, who now has 5.5. RUTS says that:

Penn State loves to just send the defensive line if they can get away with it. The defensive scheme actually depends on it, but PSU's defensive ends have been several notches below their predecessors. There's no Aaron Maybin, Maurice Evans, or Tamba Hali on this defensive line, so they'll send linebackers on occasion, and maybe mix in a corner blitz once or twice per game, but that's it.

We can't let them get tons of pressure from the front four alone. I know it's tempting disaster to say that I *want* Navorro Bowman, Sean Lee, and the corners to blitz, but Penn State blitzing and leaving the secondary exposed is how Cousins will be able to throw for lots of yards.

Penn State's defense is statistically impressive against the pass: 16th nationally in pass efficiency defense, and 17th nationally in pass defense. Once again, I'll let RUTS write my preview for me:

Penn State can be thrown on, but they do their best to protect any obvious liabilities in the secondary. Free Safety Nick Sukay has steadily improved throughout the year. Drew Astorino (#28) plays the other safety position, and it's no secret that he's trying to fight through a shoulder injury. CB A.J. Wallace sustained a concussion last week, he's listed as "possible" for Sparty. So there may be opportunities for you in the passing game.

So, PSU is good, but they're not scary in the way that Iowa is: this season, the Lions have allowed 252 yards passing to Northwestern, 263 to Illinois (!), and 298 last week to Indiana. (Note that they won all three of those games, however.) Quite frankly, our passing offense is better than any of those teams'. I think Cousins has a big day, and throws for at least 250 yards; look for B.J. Cunningham to play the Devin Thomas role this time around. If he's able to deliver, Cousins stands in line for first team all-conference honors, so there should be some personal motivation, too.

FINAL PREDICTION: Cut and paste, for starters:

Clark picked our defense apart last year, and while you don't have Derrick Williams anymore, our pass defense is even worse this time around. Also, I have distressing visions of Jared Odrick pwning whoever's blocking him and not giving Cousins enough time to be comfortable.

More generally, Dantonio has done a lot of good things during his time at MSU, but beating teams with appreciably more talent certainly hasn't been one of those things. So, I'll remain skeptical until we finally win one of these games. It's at home, which is good, and I could definitely see the special teams stats ending up very lopsided in our favor. But PSU is the better team, and you're playing for more: a win for us would upgrade our bowl game slightly, but a win for PSU might send you guys to the BCS. So, an upset isn't out of the possibility, but I'm not particularly optimistic.

I wrote that yesterday morning, and honestly, I'm a bit more optimistic now. Penn State fans seem quite worried about this game, and one columnist even questions whether Penn State's players even have their hearts into the game anymore. Which, like, what? Even if that's true, you're playing for the BCS! I'd dismiss it out of hand if the sentiment didn't seem to be a common one across the PSU internets.

One thing that doesn't fit into my normal preview format: if you've been reading previews of this game anywhere else, you'll know that PSU's special teams have been an unmitigated disaster this year, and ours have been very good. I'm normally skeptical that special teams play has any predictive value, but here the discrepancy between the teams seems so great that it may indeed be relevant this week. Keshawn Martin, Brett Swenson, Aaron Bates: keep on doing what you do so well. kthx.

Nonetheless, this is a pretty talented football team we're playing. PSU is excellent on defense, and the offense -- with many of the same players -- ripped us apart last year. It seems that I'm saying this every week now, but truly, our defense will determine whether we win this game. If they show up, we have a chance. If they play like they did last week, we don't. It's awfully tempting to say that MSU wins this game on the strength of the passing game and special teams play. But, visions of Quarless and Zug running rampant across the middle of the field prevent me from tempting fate, for now. Penn State 31, Michigan State 27.

Your thoughts welcome, of course.

Conversations With the Enemy: Talking Penn State with Run Up The Score

LVS — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:07:03 -0000

More photos » by TONY DING - AP

about 1 month ago: Penn State tight end Andrew Quarless (10) scores a touchdown after a 60-yard reception in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Michigan, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009, in Ann Arbor, Mich. (AP Photo/Tony Ding)

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Hello again. I traded a few questions about Saturday's EPIC rivalry game with Run Up The Score from Black Shoe Diaries, SBN's leviathan Penn State blog. My answers to his questions should be up at BSD shortly.

Below, I'm in bold.

MSU-PSU: great rivalry or greatest rivalry?

Greatest, of course! How else could you explain two teams fighting over a pre-school arts and crafts monstrosity like the Land Grant Trophy?

Penn State allowed almost 300 yards passing against Indiana last Saturday; that statistic alone gives MSU fans at least some hope, as our offense is essentially pass-or-bust this year. How has PSU's pass defense been this season? Are there any clear vulnerabilities in the secondary?

Keep in mind that Indiana threw the ball 51 times and was playing from behind in the second half last week, but yes, the larger point is that teams know it's better to throw on Penn State than attempt to run. I would not be remotely surprised if MSU attempts close to 50 passes on Saturday, although I doubt they'll reach the 61 passes thrown by Brian Hoyer against PSU back in 2006 -- and that was in a 17-13 game. Penn State can be thrown on, but they do their best to protect any obvious liabilities in the secondary. Free Safety Nick Sukay has steadily improved throughout the year. Drew Astorino (#28) plays the other safety position, and it's no secret that he's trying to fight through a shoulder injury. CB A.J. Wallace sustained a concussion last week, he's listed as "possible" for Sparty. So there may be opportunities for you in the passing game.

[More, after the jump.]

PSU leads the conference in sacks. Does the pressure come primarily from the defensive line, or will the Lions regularly mix in blitz packages?

Penn State loves to just send the defensive line if they can get away with it. The defensive scheme actually depends on it, but PSU's defensive ends have been several notches below their predecessors. There's no Aaron Maybin, Maurice Evans, or Tamba Hali on this defensive line, so they'll send linebackers on occasion, and maybe mix in a corner blitz once or twice per game, but that's it.

The book on Darryl Clark seems to be that he's fantastic if given time, but quickly becomes very average if he's subjected to pressure. Is that mostly correct? What are his major strengths and weaknesses?

He's like about any other good, but not great, quarterback. If he has a clean pocket and can set his feet, he's as good as anyone in the country. If he gets hit too much, he gets rattled and starts making bad decisions with the ball. In that sense, he can be knocked back into looking like a talented quarterback in his second or third start -- he thinks he can make throws that he can't actually pull off.

Can you tell us a bit about PSU's receivers and tight ends? Our pass defense has been atrocious, and Andrew Quarless, in particular, worries me greatly.

Starting WR Chaz Powell is out for the game with a shoulder injury. In his place, you'll see a rotating group including the very tall Brett Brackett and the very quick Curtis Drake. Maybe true freshman Justin Brown gets in the game, but I doubt it. Graham Zug had a nightmare game against Indiana last week, but that was mostly due to fumbling punts. He runs good routes and gets open against passive zone coverages. Really, that goes for the whole group -- if you can press and bump them, they become ineffective quickly.

As for Quarless, he has all the talent in the world but had squandered it until this season with various off-field issues. He scares a lot of teams, although he's only broken 50 yards receiving once this year, due to a 60 yard touchdown catch against Michigan. Derek Moye is probably our best receiver, but he was totally shut out by Ohio State's press coverage and only had two catches for 28 yards against Indiana. Because of that, I suspect PSU will make an effort to get him involved quickly.

Special teams have seemed to be a major problem all season long for PSU. Have things improved at all in recent weeks? If not, which areas are the most dire? (Happily enough, MSU's special teams have been mostly fantastic all season long.)

Improved? No, no. It's a worsening nightmare by the week. Penn State is 113th in kickoff returns, 107th in punt returns, 114th in net punting, 57th in kickoff coverage, and 117th in punt return yardage allowed. On top of that, our punt returners (Zug and Astorino) went from being Designated Fair Catchers to dropping everything in sight last week. So relatively speaking, we're downright awesome in covering kickoffs. In our two losses, the game turned on a blocked punt for a touchdown against Iowa and a punt return inside the 10 yard line by Ohio State's Ray Small.

Is there anyone on offense or defense for PSU that MSU fans probably haven't heard of, but that we should keep an eye on?

Curtis Drake is a good candidate on offense. He's a true freshman receiver, and is extremely elusive with the ball in his hands. Last week, PSU's offense was jumpstarted by a long gainer on an end-around by Drake. Defensively, freshman Stephon Morris has seen a lot of time in Penn State's nickel package and has played well beyond anyone's expectations. Given Michigan State's propensity to throw the ball, you'll see a lot of him Saturday.

Finally, generally speaking, how are you feeling about the game?

Justifiably nervous. I don't like hearing that Michigan State excels on special teams -- that's a huge point that can't be overlooked. Penn State tends to start slowly, especially on the road, and that seems to be an especially bad idea this week with a possible BCS at-large bid on the line. Michigan State will be plenty motivated, given the beating they received last year at Beaver Stadium and Mark Dantonio's pissy-pants antics of calling two defensive timeouts during the waning seconds of the game in sub-freezing temperatures. And every Penn State fan is expecting a minimum of two special teams disasters.

Thanks to RUTS, and I wish his team only the absolute worst luck this Saturday.

BSD Staff Predictions: Ohio State

Run Up The Score — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:58:48 -0000

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

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Alas, all hate things must come to an end. Here's how we see tomorrow's game shaking out.

BSD Mike:

Honestly, I can see this game going either way. Both defenses should dominate, and the score should be low. Really low. A big special teams play, or a key turnover could swing the balance.

But having said that, I like Penn State's chances in this game. I've watched a lot of Ohio State football this year, and I just don't see any cohesion on offense. Do they run the spread or a pro-style offense? Is Terrelle Pryor a pocket passer or a spread option quarterback? I can't tell. But I can tell you he's far from being a polished quarterback. And the players around him at running back and offensive line don't exactly make his life any easier. But his receivers are capable of bailing him out when he punts on third down.

When Penn State gets the ball, I'm expecting a lot of frustration. They're not going to move the ball easily, but they won't get dominated. They'll win some battles, but the Ohio State defense will win their share as well.

Both teams are going to struggle offensively. Barring a bunch of turnovers, this game is going to come down to which team can put together one or two good drives and come away with points. Though Penn State will go through a lot of frustration, I think their offense is better suited to put together one or two drives, and I think that will be the difference.

Prediction: Penn State 17, Ohio State 10

Kevin HD:

Why isn’t this game going to play out exactly like last year’s?

The only difference I can come up with is that Pryor lacks a Robiskie to bring down the jump balls. Add in some downgrades on both offensive lines, maybe compensate for the fact that the Buckeyes haven’t really found a true replacement for Wells….and, honestly, most of that seems a wash.

The wildcard is Daryll Clark and the offense. While we like to boast about the Penn State defense around here, Ohio State’s is at least as good. They may lack some of the real standouts up front and at linebacker, but they make up for it with balance.

The offense is going to be kept on a very short leash, which is something you can’t really blame Paterno for considering the situation. Can Clark, with the über-safe playbook, move down the field three or four times? I'll say just barely. Add in a couple of missed Ohio State field goals, and the defense rides this one home.

Penn State 13, Ohio State 6

Run Up The Score:

I expect to see a very similar Penn State offense to what we watched last week at Northwestern, with lots of quick, safe throws to the wide receivers. The Nittany Lion offensive line has slowly improved throughout the season, but Ohio State is too good and too fast at the front of their defense to try repeated five and seven-step drops. If Penn State is going to go deep, expect them to do it like they did against Northwestern -- play-action and rolling Clark away from the rush. If they can get the team around 100-125 rushing yards, that should keep the Buckeye defense sufficiently honest.

Defensively, you're likely to see a repeat of last year's scheme in Columbus. Basically, they'll try to keep Pryor in front of them and force him to win with his brain and arm. In that sense, losing Aaron Maybin to the NFL isn't as big of a deal against Ohio State compared to other opponents. Jack Crawford and the other defensive ends will most often be asked to contain the quarterback, not attack him. And don't forget about the biggest difference between this year's PSU defense and the 2008 version -- Sean Lee is back, which gives the coaching staff additional flexibility. Should be interesting to see if Navorro Bowman acts as a QB spy, like he did at times against Tate Forcier. The place to beat Penn State is between the safeties. If that means Terrelle Pryor is going to throw the ball across the middle, I'm all for it.

Amazingly, this may be a rare 2009 instance in which Penn State has an advantage on special teams. Collin Wagner has settled in quite nicely. No, he'll never give you a legitimate shot at a 52 yard field goal, but how likely would Joe Paterno be to attempt such a kick in what is going to be a field position battle, anyway? Ohio State is dealing with the loss of their kicker to a knee injury. The replacement, Devin Barclay, is a former MLS player who went 1-for-3 last week with misses from 36 and 47 yards -- and that's in a no-pressure game at home against New Mexico State.

There's a path to victory for Ohio State that includes forcing turnovers from Clark and a big play in the kicking game. In reality, the game should be decided by only two or three big, big plays, so it's not like there's a ton of room for error on either side. Still, in this type of game, give me the better and more mature QB at home, every time. Ohio State doesn't have enough playmakers on offense to take the pressure off Terrelle Pryor, and he's just not good enough -- not yet, hopefully -- to win this kind of game on his own. A fourth quarter touchdown after a Buckeye turnover ices it for the good guys.

Penn State 20, Ohio State 7

Examining Maryland's In-State Football Recruiting History

Ben Broman — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 23:02:55 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

Kenny Tate has been one of Maryland's few highly ranked in-state recruiting successes.

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It's a bye week, which means it's lots of random and kind of pointless research. Today's topic: in-state football recruiting. Sadly, this didn't prove a lot, so it's more my worthless thoughts than real information, but read on if you wish.

If you follow Maryland recruiting at all, you probably know that in-state recruiting has been less than stellar, both this year and in the past four or so years (the last real good year was in 2005, five years ago, when Maryland landed 7 of the top 10 in state; sadly, they included guys like Morgan Green, Jeff Allen, Anthony Wiseman, and the dreaded Melvin Alaeze; if Maryland turned out that performance a year later, we'd have Penn State's defense right now).

But I digress. Back to the relevant in-state recruiting stuff: the majority of good (not great) teams, which is what Maryland should try to be, land around 25% of their top 15 in-state players. For instance, Pitt has landed 28% of the top 15 Pennsylvanians over the past five years. Illinois, while they haven't reaped the benefits of it this year, have hit that 28% mark as well. Virginia Tech does, too. South Carolina gets 24% of theirs. Most elite schools can afford, both literally and figuratively, to recruit outside their states: Maryland can't. For Maryland, the key to winning should be in-state recruiting.

As part of diagnosing the problems with the program, it would make sense to analyze this, which Heather Dinich already blew apart. And while I already blew apart the offensive and defensive line recruiting, it's worth noting that in state recruiting can't be called disastrous, at least not historically. Maryland does have trouble pulling in top targets - they haven't landed a #1 in-stater since Wesley Jefferson in 2003 - but they aren't miles away from the Pitts and South Carolinas of the world, both of whom are currently in the top 25 and could be considered programs similar to Maryland (except for the AD, some would argue [I wouldn't, but that's irrelevant]).

In fact, the Terps have pulled away 20% of the top 15 the past five years - not an outstanding number, but not terrible and better than some top 25 programs, like Ole Miss. The problem has been landing the best of the best in-state, which very few non-elite programs can do, and developing the players they get.

For the first part, Maryland's last number one was, as was said earlier, Wes Jeff. He left early for a job in police enforcement. The only other top 2 player they landed were Melvin Alaeze, and we know how that turned out, and DeOnte Arnett, who is yet to prove himself (or have a chance to prove himself). They've also landed Tre Covington, who was a disappointment, and Kevin Dorsey, who hasn't made much of an impact in his first season, who were #3s. Other than that: nothing.

Like I mentioned earlier, Maryland's best in-state class was in 2005. Making up 70% of the top 10, it included guys like Anthony Wiseman, Morgan Green, Jeff Allen, Jamari McCollough, Jeremy Navarre, and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Of them all, Hey-Bey is the only one that really blossomed into a star. The others probably underachived based on their ranking (which we know isn't guaranteed, but more often than not is a good indicator).

The exact opposite happened for Penn State the following year. They grabbed almost the exact same class out of Maryland, only theirs included Navorro Bowman, who had over 100 tackles last year and is one of the best linebackers in the country, instead of McCollough; Aaron Maybin, who was dominant and a first round pick last year, instead of Allen; and Phillip Taylor, a starting DT, instead of Morgan Green.

I'm not trying to blame anyone here, especially not the players, but the results are pretty damning for someone. Is it that Maryland got bad luck? Did Friedgen and his staff fail at developing the players? I don't really know, but it wasn't really the recruiting at fault.

The lack of player development is pretty well seen in the starting lineup itself this year: only two starters on offense are actually from Maryland, and one of them is Paul Pinegar, a former walk-on. At least seven starters on defense are native Marylanders, but 9/22 isn't a great ratio.

Just to clarify, I'm not trying to say rankings are everything: Maryland's found plenty of in-state diamonds in the rough (like Davin Meggett), and that's necessary too. But I still hold that rankings are mostly important and a highly ranked player will turn out better than a lower ranked player 7 times out of 10, given the same coaching. Nor am I saying that the Terps should only recruit in-state; as long as they get the players, it doesn't matter where they're from. But if they really want to take the next step as a program, which will allow them to successfully recruit out of state on a regular basis, they'll need to start being stronger in-state.

But I digress again.

One of things that showed up in the offensive line recruiting breakdown was that this year was most dependent on 2006's recruiting (and because 2006 was so bad, 2007's to an extent as well), last year on 2005's recruiting, and so forth. Looking at 2006 and 2007's in-state years, it should come as no surprise that those were the worst of the past five years, and that 2005 (in 2008 we won eight games, remember) was the best. In 2006, the Terps only landed three top 15 players - Adrian Moten was one, but so were Drew Gloster (who missed a year and switched positions) and Pha'Terrell Washington (academic casualty). In 2007, it was just two, and Devonte Campbell, who's seen slow development, was among them.

But outside of that year, the in-state recruiting has been pretty solid. 2008 and 2009 were both solid bounce back yeas, grabbing five and four, respectively. Sadly, this year likely won't qualify with the likes of those.

While it's not over, unless Maryland makes a very strong push with some of the remaining uncommitteds, it's looking like Iowa and Wisconsin will have more top 20 Marylanders than Maryland will. Iowa and Wisconsin: these aren't really big draws, either football-wise or location-wise (although Iowa is undefeated, they don't have all that much tradition and it's in Iowa).

There is some good news, though: 2005, Maryland's stellar recruiting season, occurred with James Franklin as recruiting coordinator. That was his last year as RC; he would leave shortly after to become the Packers' WR coach. He was replaced by Dave Sollazzo, who has been average at best. Franklin is now back, but has a lot of stuff on his plate as OC, leaving less time for recruiting. Perhaps, if he is instituted as coach, he hands the playcalling over to an OC and acts as a program CEO, giving him more time to get out on the trail and pull the recruiting back in. Hopefully.

Sunday Afternoon Drive: Week One Recap of Big Ten Action

grahamfiller10 — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 18:48:38 -0000

I have much disdain for generic recaps by people who didn't watch the actual games. That's why DVR and Eddie George's Bar and Grill are such a boon for my Big Ten recaps for this week. Eleven Big Ten games were played this weekend and I watched nine of them in their entirety. My apologies to Iowa and Purdue, but I will watch them on BTN this week. You can read my Indiana recap here.

Another important caveat. I don't give a damn who you played this week. Towson? USC? Sister Mary's School of the Deaf and Blind? The bottom line is this - Did you execute? Did you hit someone? Did you play above or below expectations?

Michigan 31, Western Michigan 7: Hey guys, we're back!

A well-meaning and inebriated Buckeye fan talked to me in Eddie George's the other day, saying "Looks like all that extra practice helped." Well, my drunk friend, you're absolutely right. RichRod's Option Spread, featuring players that you know, actually fit the system, looked effective early. Tate Forcier, moved fluidly in the offense, getting the 3-4 yards on option runs that Threet and Sheridan couldn't get last year. I've felt dirty discussing Michigan football for the last two years. This week made me proud, as if I had a drug addict son who's finally out of rehab, married, and just received a promotion at work.

The defense looked stout against Western's star quarterback Tim Hiller, but the real story here was the feeling surrounding the Michigan team. There hasn't been much joy in Mudville ever since Michigan began losing games at an unprecedented pace in 2008. All of last year's wins were miracles, save for the Mini beating. This game was bigger than anyone will admit. Wolverines everywhere can feel, at the absolute least, that the program is on the right track. Do they have to beat ND next week? No. Do they have to make the Capitol One Bowl? No. But oh sweet Lord do I feel they're on the right path.

My favorite line from a Buckeye fan: When Forcier was subbed out and Robinson came in for the first time to take snaps, one guy looks over and says "wait, where did Forcier go" to which the Buckeye fan responded, "oh, he had to go do 15 reps on the bench press before RichRod would put him back in." Cliched, but clever.

Ohio State 31, Navy 27: Senator Tressel is under investigation for unintentional hubris

I have one word for this game: arrogance. Tressel inserted his backup quarterback in the second quarter (for reps probably) instead of letting Pryor go for the kill early. He ran an offense that failed to utilize Pryor's legs and athleticism, instead muting his offensive playcalling in the name of "not showing too much" for USC to study. Behind a line that was unable to move anyone in the run game, Tress ran up the middle unsuccessfully on fourth and two instead of kicking a field goal. If not for a Ricky Dobbs pick on the two point conversion, we're talking about a 50/50 chance in OT that Navy pulls the upset of the year.

What's my logical conclusion here? Tressel failed to take Navy seriously and in even when the game was in doubt, he failed to alter his conservative gameplan, almost costing Ohio State the game. Counter argument? They won the game and no one got hurt. My rebuttal? You've got the Ultimate Weapon at quarterback (he may be the hardest person to sack in CFB), you've got a WR corps that played extremely well (Sanzenbacher and Ballard had great catches), and you've got an overmatched Navy defense. Attack, let the dogs out, unleash the dragon, damn the torpedoes, etc. The biggest question for next week, besides how many points Law Buckeye will favor USC by, is whether the Senator will take off his conservative Sweatervest, throw on some Under Armour and show the Trojans something different in Columbus.

Penn State 31, Akron 7: Aaron Maybin who?

I was impressed by the front four defenders of Penn State. They generated pressure instantly, overwhelming Akron's O-Line easily. BSD discusses the dominance here and it's good to see an inspired Nittany Lion defense, especially against cupcakes.

As for Daryl Clark, he's the best overall quarterback in the Big Ten by a long shot. Immaculate footwork, quick decision making, confidence in his OL, throws a catchable ball...Eventually someone will discuss the NFL and Clark in the same breathe.

Missouri 37, Illinois 9: Ron, can I get you a seat warmer?

As we discussed earlier this year, Illinois has a lot of weapons on offense and defense. All Zook needs to do is utilize them. Against the Tigers, he failed to do so. Forgodsakes, get Juice Williams out of the pocket! The man proved last year that no good comes from a staid offensive plan. Typical Illini possession - shotgun formation, Juice takes the snap, gets good blocking (+1 to Illini O-Line), throws an incomplete pass or scrambles for two yards. Benn went down, but the depth of the Illinois wide receiving corps is well documented.

What did we learn here? Ron Zook is a bad game manager? Ron Zook and his new OC are unable to make in-game adjustments? Didn't we already know this? Looks like Phil Steele's statistical love of the Illini might have been misplaced. As for the Illinois defense, I don't begrudge them anything. They made a bunch of stops in the first half, holding Mizzou to long field goals and waiting for the Juice led cavalry that never came.

One thought of optimism, straight from Hail to the Orange: "Recall that in both 1983 and 2007, the season began with a loss to Mizzou. Illinois went to the Rose Bowl both years."

Minnesota 23, Syracuse 20: It took a Mini-miracle to survive

In the initial Greg Paulus Challenge game, the Gophers showed an inaccurate passing game, an undisciplined offensive line good for numerous penalties and missed blocks, and a lack of general talent. This game couldn't have gone worse...except that they won.

When 375 lb. Jeff Wills whiffed on a block, directly leading to a Weber fumble, I shook my head. And when the defense began missing tackles in the second half, letting ‘Cuse back in the game, I put my head on the bar table. Secretly, I believe in the Gophers. But this first game gave me no confidence in their 2009 prospects. Adam Weber, known for his athleticism and accuracy, had a below 50% completion percentage and looked uncomfortable with any receiver not named Decker. Minnesota's pass game, full of timing route's and tough angles, was completely off kilter until late in the game. Weber was 12-33 passing at one point.

Positive, let's be positive like Brewster. Decker is an athlete with good hands and better instincts for the ball. The secondary, save one big mistake on the Paulus deep TD, made some great plays on the ball and sealed the game by intercepting Paulus in the end zone. They will be one of Minnesta's strengths this year.

Michigan State 44, Montana State 3: I got you! I got your ass!

A nice Full Metal Jacket quote should probably be saved for a bigger game, but I've got Kubrick on the brain and the Spartans looked good in pounding Montana State. Kirk Cousins, the starting QB whose previous claim to fame was starting 10-10 passing against OSU last year, showed an incredibly accurate arm and throws a catchable ball. It also looked like Dantonio has opened up the offense. Or Cousins is that much better than Hoyer, same results either way.

On the defensive side, #40 Roderick Jenrette had four Playstation Hit Stick worthy plays. Good to see some early season aggression taken out on opposing wide receivers.

A couple interesting things happened in this game. Michigan State receivers struggled early with drops, the main culprit being Keshawn Martin. Dropsies plagued the Spartans last year and hopefully these were just early season issues. Blair White however, he of the Gossip Girl worthy name, caught everything in his way and has transformed himself into the main option in the passing game.

In the "oddly enough" category, Greg Jones was on the kickoff team. Hmm, considering the history of MSU stars getting hurt on special teams, I would say that's an interesting choice. Also, I hope you noticed the couple that kisses after every MSU touchdown. If this was ESPN, we would do a puff piece about how football strengthens their relationship and forges their marriage bond even closer.

Northwestern 47, Towson 14: Supergirls and Kafka

Not so much to discuss here. Kafka was ready, his mechanics are improved and he's still tougher than nails. Just witness his blocking to spring a NW ball carrier.

In the "Woo Woo" section, I was surprised to see a bunch of hot NW girls in gray sports bras cheering on the Wildcats. Take that SEC! Our hotties are brainiacs too. Fantastic.

Wisconsin 28, Northwen Illinois 20: Bielema continues his mission to confuse me

Scott Tolzien started out all hot and sexy, 6-6 passing for 120 yards and a touchdown. I love the decision to start Tolzien - it takes guts to bench Sherer and bypass Phillips for an unproven Junior who is known as a career backup. Just as, I was voicing my respect for Bielema after another Tolzien-led scoring drive, in comes Phillips to get snaps. I don't understand this! Finish the game, leave your hot arm in, blow out NIU early!

The Badgers hung on for a win, I would prefer that Bielema claims a #1 QB and goes from there. QB instability was the problem last year, why skirt the issue again?

One player who stood out to me - J.J. Watt, a 290 lb. sophomore DT who spent the entire first half in the Husky backfield. Apparently he transferred from CMU - originally a 200 lb linebacker, he's put on 90 pounds and looks like a high motor killer.

Comparing the Online Recruiting Ranking Services

Buck Bravo — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

Rivals, Scout, and ESPN all provide ranking systems for recruits headed to Division 1 football programs. Often, ratings of individual players will vary greatly from one service to another. In an attempt to determine which service most accurately projects the future performance of players, let's take a look at the ratings that were given to the 2009 NFL first round draft picks back when they were being recruited for college football:

PICK

NAME

COLLEGE

TEAM

RIVALS

STARS

SCOUT

STARS

ESPN

RATING

Matthew Stafford

Georgia

Jason Smith

Baylor

Tyson Jackson

LSU

Aaron Curry

OLB

Wake Forest

Mark Sanchez

USC

Andre Smith

Alabama

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Maryland

Virginia

Boston College

Texas Tech

Penn State

Georgia

Texas

Ohio State

OLB

USC

Northern Illinois

Kansas State

Tennessee

Missouri

Oklahoma State

California

Florida

Ole Miss

Ole Miss

Illinois

OLB

USC

Donald Brown

Connecticut

Louisville

North Carolina

Rutgers

Ohio State

Missouri

ESPN did not start ranking recruits until 2006, so players from before that time have no ranking. Despite this limitation, let's look at the trend lines for the different services:

While Scout may have had the most 5 star rankings for recruits who ultimately became first round NFL draft choices, Rivals had the best trendline for accurately ranking future NFL talent. A more comprehensive analysis looking at later rounds and previous years would best determine which service best analyzes talent. If I were retired or writing for TDG full time, I'd be eager to put such a report together for later this week. For now, the first round of the 2009 NFL draft will have to suffice.

Penn State's Reason For Hope #4 - Larry Johnson Sr.

BSD — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 12:00:23 -0000

via blog.pennlive.com

View full size photo »

I can remember a few years ago looking ahead to 2009 and thinking Penn State was going to be absolutely loaded on the defensive line. But a funny thing happened between then and now. Phil Taylor and Chris Baker were dismissed from the team. Maurice Evans and Aaron Maybin decided to go pro early. Josh Gaines had the audacity to graduate. And JoePa decided to throw Abe Koroma in the doghouse for a year and throw away the key.

Normally this kind of attrition would be devastating to any average defense. But I'm not worried, and I don't have the sense Nittany Lion fans are worried either. That's because we know that no matter how bad things get with dismissals and injuries, as long as we have Larry Johnson Sr. everything will be okay on the defensive line.

Of course nobody is worried about Jared Odrick, a first team All-BIg Ten selection a year ago who probably could have entered the NFL draft and done quite well for himself last spring. And we know his defensive tackle counterpart Ollie Ogbu is a proven commodity who I think is poised for a breakout season in 2009. With Devon Still, Chima Okoli, and Brandon Ware to back these guys up there's plenty of talent and depth to work with at the defensive tackle position.

But then nobody I read mentionsthe defensive tackles as a concern. The defensive ends are a different story. Penn State has to replace their top three guys on the outside this year. Maybin, Evans, and Gaines accounted for 19 sacks and 31.5 TFL. That's a lot of production to replace, but if there's one area Penn State has proven it can reload, it's on the defensive line.

Jack Crawford is Larry Johnson's latest project this summer. Standing an imposing six-foot-five and 256 lbs. with tremendous explosiveness due to years of playing basketball in England, Crawford has drawn comparisons to Aaron Maybin. I'll go one better than that. I'll go out on a limb and say Crawford will be better than Maybin before it's all said and done. Maybin, as good as he was, was really a one dimensional player. He was an outside pass rushing specialist, but he wasn't really that great against the running game, and he never really developed a bull rush due to the fact he couldn't put on weight. Crawford has explosiveness, but he also has the size Maybin could never obtain which I think will make him an even more dominant player.

On the other side it's going to be interesting to watch Johnson work his magic. It looks like Jerome Hayes is penciled in as the starter at weak side defensive end after two reconstructive knee surgeries in the past two years. It has me a bit concerned that he's our best option, but if he can show the same speed he did before his injuries he'll be a force to wreckon with coming off the edge on third and long.

He'll have to platoon with Kevion Latham on the weak side. Latham saw considerable action last year as a redshirt freshman. He reminds me a lot of Josh Gaines in his physique and his motor. This will be his third year under Johnson's tutelage, so I expect him to be a solid player.

Campfire Stories - Hold onto the Ball

Law Buckeye — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 13:33:27 -0000

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

4 months ago: Penn State defensive end Jack Crawford walk off the field during Penn State Football Media Day in State College, Pa., Thursday, Aug. 13, 2009. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Browse more photos »

I spent last night watching the dog at my parent's house -- they're on a weekend excursion in Chicago. With nothing to do, and none of my choice DVR programming on call, I cracked open a Samuel Smith's and wondered over to the Big Ten Network.

Five hours later, I reluctantly cut myself off, with seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter of Ohio State at Penn State 2001. Before that, I caught Penn State's win over Georgia in the 1983 Sugar Bowl for the school's first national championship, last year's Ohio State/Penn State game trench warfare at the Shoe, and Penn State's segment of the Big Ten Football Tour 2009.

It was a great night.

Anyway, watching clips from the Nittany Lion's first three practices left a few impressions. First, the good. Linebacker play looks outstanding, with the unit a virtual regiment of wide-shouldered soldiers. Sean Lee, Navorro Bowman, and Michael Mauti looked fast, fit, and solid in isolation. I don't have any concerns here, and neither should you. Up front, Defensive End Jack Crawford hopes to pick up where Aaron Maybin left off. The defensive line ran a ton of turn and burn drills, and player after player showed solid arm control and explosiveness.

Now, the bad. Penn State's secondary continues to struggle. One of the few things Joe Paterno was willing to admit about his team is that "We're still looking for a couple of defensive backs." Although a leaky secondary is less of a sin in this league than in others, the Nittany Lions are at risk of paying homage to a unit that gave up 413 yards in the air in last year's Rose Bowl Game.

Then there's the receivers. I don't think I saw a single person pull down a single pass in drills. Derek Moye, Chaz Powell, and Graham Zug rotated through a carnival-like show of slaps, gropes, and fumbles. Sure, it's small data pool, but still -- not a single catch? In drills?

The broadcast can't be encouraging for the Lion faithful, who hope to see Daryll Clark back in his 2008 form. Speaking of Clark, the guy really needs to stay healthy -- his backup Kevin Newsome is a true freshman.

Team Barometer:

An Early Look: Penn State

Sam @ WWAHT — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 12:00:16 -0000

Let's excuse our Penn State friends for a moment. I've just given them beaucoup spank bank material.

2009 is going to be a very, very important year for the Penn State program. It may end up being the most important of the decade, outside of 2005's Redemption Tour. The Age of JoePa is coming to an end, and soon. The program has largely put the struggles of the early 2000s behind them, and on the strength of a Big Ten championship and a shocking win in Columbus last year, Penn State is considered by many to be the Big Ten's other program-of-the-now, as Michigan has placed itself firmly in the midst of a massive rebuilding project. What is it exactly that Penn State has to do in 2009 to have a successful season?

Well, first off: the program has its doubters. Despite the lopsided Rose Bowl loss to USC, Penn State is a program that has largely been innocent of the non-conference embarrassments characteristic of other Big Ten programs lately; the Nittany Lions had won two bowl games prior to the Rose Bowl meltdown, one against an okay Texas A+M squad in Texas and another against Tennessee, a game prior to which Tennessee boasted a top-20 ranking and the Lions had been unranked. The program, however, still bears the mark of what its fans call The Dark Years, and up until 2008, the struggles against Ohio State and Michigan had held the program back from rejoining the ranks of the truly elite. 2008 was in many ways a breakthrough year; Penn State beat both Ohio State and (an admittedly down) Michigan, and if the Big Ten's championship-deciding rules weren't so archaic, the Lions would have won the conference outright. Up until the final weeks of the season, Penn State was seen as a national title contender, whose legitimacy was questioned - in my mind, unfairly at times - due to Ohio State's falls-from-grace in the prior two championship games. While the losses to USC and Iowa stung for Nittany fans, 2008 provided renewed confidence in Paterno and the newly-explosive offense.

But they still have one more hump to get over. They have to be able to repeat that success to at least some degree, and channel it into another solid (i.e. no more than two loss) conference season. If they don't, the "once-a-recruiting-cycle" nature of Penn State's national relevance will continue to stain the program. The Big Ten will have to suffer through another year of being considered Ohio State, and then everybody else. No pressure or anything, guys.

But if they're relatively successful, Big Ten detractors will have a difficult time deriding the conference as a "one-team league", and it'll only get more difficult if the Rich Rodriguez experiment shows signs of life at Michigan. I frequently find myself reminding my fellow Ohio State fans that if the conference is to truly get better, the Buckeyes will have to take their share lumps in the process.* Personally, as a fan who wants to see his team win every game, I don't think it's worth it, but perhaps that's just me. However, if you're one of the people who really, genuinely cares about "conference strength", you want Penn State to show some sort of staying power. They don't necessarily have to win the conference, but they have to be competitive in every single game, win about ten of them, and ideally, they need to win their bowl game as well.

Penn State players you should care about:

On a schematic level, Jared Odrick had about as much to do with Penn State's win as Aaron Maybin swallowing Bryant Browning whole. Odrick literally tore up the offensive interior for four quarters, and was a big reason why Beanie Wells was held to 55 yards rushing on 22 carries. Of course, Navarro Bowman, he of the 106 freaking tackles in his redshirt freshman year, had a bit to do with that as well. Both will terrorize the offensive line, and if neither can be blocked, Ohio State's offense will be done. Evan Royster didn't quite tear up the Buckeye defense last year, but he provided some consistency on a night where Daryll Clark could provide none, toting the rock 19 times for 77 yards.

Fun with statistics:

Penn State's rushing defense last year was a killer, killer outfit, and given that they return Odrick, Bowman, and Sean Lee (from injury), it might be even better this year. Five teams - Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana and Illinois - went over 100 yards rushing on the Nittany Lion defense, and all of them except Wisconsin had one run that went for 30 yards or more on its own. Oh, and Iowa. But Iowa had Shonn Greene. Basically, if that one run that killed them against Indiana, Illinois and Michigan didn't happen, it would have been in the conversation as one of the most dominant rushing defenses in the Big Ten this decade. USC, a little busy torching the Lions' secondary through the air, managed only 61 yards on 35 carries in the Rose Bowl.

Penn State had nine guys with over 100 yards receiving at the end of the season to Ohio State's five. Fortunately for us, the three most productive of those guys - Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood and Derrick Williams - are gonesie.

How big was Aaron Maybin to Penn State last year? Well, he account for more than 1/3rd of their 33 sacks. Odrick was their next-leading sack artist, but Josh Gaines and Maurice Evans, a due that accounted for seven combined sacks last year, are lost to graduation and the draft. All told, Penn State lost more than half of their sacks off of last year's unit.

As a result, this is where I start salivating: Lydell Sargeant, Tony Davis, and Mark Rubin are no more; they have ceased to be, and the only returning guy of note in the secondary is AJ Wallace. And uh, yeah about AJ Wallace....

My prediction: Alright, you're going to have to bear with me on this. I think Terrelle Pryor is going to do fairly well against the Nittany Lions, and here's why: last year, he had his best passing day of the season, yards-wise, against the Lions. This year, he'll do much of the same. Expect him to get a good amount of time in the pocket and rack up some impressive stats, but the Penn State front seven is going to clog the rushing lanes at critical junctures late in the game. In the end, Penn State will walk away having given Ohio State a tough 17-13 loss, as the Buckeyes end up settling for one too many field goals after multiple promising drives. I should note that I personally do not think this Penn State squad goes undefeated in the Big Ten, losing probably at Illinois. Nevertheless, Penn State's front seven, featuring what might be the best linebacking corps in America , will be simply too good for a Buckeye offense that'll probably still be relying quite heavily on its ground game to overcome.

A Nittany Lion's Thoughts: Kevin from BSD was kind enough to oblige us with his opinions on the game, as well as whether or not this really is a rivalry.

1. Do you consider Penn State - Ohio State a rivalry? If so, why?

Yes, and I'll try to keep this concise.

I wrote a bit about this in the magazine, but basically I see the evolution of this thing following the path that the some southern schools have taken. For so long you had OSU and UM as consistent Big Ten winners, with others unable to maintain any lasting stature as a consistent threat.

The way this works is if Penn State is able to put the Dark Years behind them and become that third party threat. Purists on your end will probably claim there can only be one Game, but guess what: Michigan has a pretty solid rivalry with Notre Dame, and that's been able to co-exist for an awful long time with their conference finale.

So how is a school like Florida is able to have multiple rivals and no one gets into pissing contests about which one is best? FSU is an important game for them, but so in Miami, and they have the Cocktail Party with Georgia...it's all gravy and it only makes there season better.

And it's really only discussion about Michigan that makes this a question in the first place. PSU and OSU share a border and recruiting ground and your Best Player Ever is from our state. Only our two schools have won the conference championship in the last four years and we are picked 1-2 again in 2009. Gameday has been to this game four years in a row, they've only been to Ohio State-Michigan twice in that time.

I'm not trying to discount your game with UM, it's great yada yada, but I do find it funny how important it is for Big Ten lovers (from all schools) to put games into very distinct and well defined boxes rather than just looking at the reality of the situation: which is that when teams repeatedly compete for high stakes natural "rivalness" occurs.

I blame it all on the damn trophies.

2. Name a player opposing fans should be aware of; preferably one that don't already know about.

Well you might have heard we lost the three long time, well regarded receivers who dominate Penn State's career receiving records. Even though just about everyone bashed them in their 2008 previews as undersized and over-hyped (or alternatively: underwhelming and unimpressive), we are apparently all going to die and looking at the total abomination of our passing game.

But the team will try to throw anyway, and although I could pick a couple of guys who may or may not break out, I'll name-drop Derek Moye. He'll be the deep threat and at 6-5 has the ability to (in time) be a more imposing Butler-type because of his athletic ability. He can by most accounts fly and should help at the very least open the field up a bit.

3. Taking off the blue and white-colored rec specs, what do you think Penn State's regular-season record will be?

I hate making predictions and so prefer a kind of caveated cop out. We looked at some of the early lines and Penn State isn't a pre-season do g in any game they play. This makes me want to say 12-0 is saying something like below 11-1 is a kind of disappointment.

But I'm not really that optimistic. Ohio State as you know will be very good this year, Iowa is early enough to give a developing team some problems, and Illinois scares the hell out of me because if Williams shows up that offense will be impossible to stop. Basically: 9-3 is a very real possibility.

4. Make an off-the-cuff prediction for the Ohio State game.

Off-the-cuff? Sure: Penn State 16 Ohio State 10 on a cold as hell day where Royster and Green outplay Herron and Saine.

I can personally verify from extensive playing and replaying of this game on NCAA 09 that Derek Moye is indeed a terror to cover. Well, pixellated Derek Moye anyway. Leave your thoughts on the game below.

You Must Be California Dreamin' If You Think Greg Jones Deserves Preseason Defensive Player of the Year

grahamfiller10 — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 17:29:45 -0000

Ed Note: I am currently in California (LA to be exact) for the first time...No one told me that a giant gray t shirt gets draped over the city at night...odd

These preseason awards are meaningless and unimportant. However, no stretch of logic points toward Greg Jones being 1) the best defensive player in the Big 10 or even 2) potentially the best defensive player in the Big 10.

Navarro Bowman should have been the PDPOY. But his marijuana incident may have clouded the voters vision. Anyways, let's break down the two backers.

In 2008, Navarro Bowman proved himself to be the Big Ten's best linebacker (Laurinitis is good too, but Bowman is a better one on one tackler). It was an extremely challenging year to be a linebacker in this conference, thanks to the 6-7 NFL caliber running backs and the ever present power run game that helped embarrass supposedly solid defenses (see: Iowa v Wisconsin). Amidst the rubble of off tackle runs, option attacks with Lebron In Cleats, and the Shonn Greene express, Bowman flourished. Numbers:

Penn State Defense

v. Oregon State - 92 rushing yards allowed, Frosh star Jacquizz Rodgers had 22 carries for 99 yards.

v. Wisconsin - 148 rushing yards allowed on 40 carries, PJ Hill with 58, John Clay with 43.

v. Ohio State - 61 rushing yards allowed.

v. Shonn Greene - 28 carries, 117 yards, long run of 14 yards.

v. Javon Ringer - 17 carries, 42 yards rushing.

So obviously Bowman and the PSU defense closed the door on most running games. Further, every single star halfback who got smothered by PSU is gone to the NFL now. Wouldn't it be logical to think that PSU's defense, now with the addition of another All-American in Sean Lee, will definitely not take steps back? Shouldn't these circumstances dictate that Bowman be the the de factor defensive POY until proven otherwise?

Oh but Graham, you might argue, the departure of Aaron Maybin won't give Bowman the protection he had last year. The departure of all the wide receivers and a young O Line will signal a weaker offense, meaning less rest for Bowman. The probation problems will be a distraction to the team and to #18's performance.

I say to you: Just look at Greg Jones and the Spartans in 2008. In every big game save Iowa, MSU got crunched defensively. The stiff arm fest against Ohio State showed that the Capitol One Bowl-bound Spartans didn't have the same level of talent as an OSU or PSU. The Penn State game exhibited those limitations again, as did the early California game when they gave up 38 points and some long runs.

But enough focus on 2008's struggles - If the Spartans improved for 2009, I could see the pick of Jones as PDPOY as being trendy and focused on the potential he holds. However, the Spartans lost their 2nd best defensive player (Otis Wiley) and their offensive stars in Brian Hoyer and Ringer. Sure they play an easier schedule this year, but that shouldn't factor into who is the best defensive player in the conference. Jones is going to find it tougher to succeed with a demanding early schedule and the possibility that the offense will struggle with no experience at the skill positions.

So we have established three things

Bowman had a monster 2008 year and there are no signs or (I believe) upcoming suspensions that lead us to believe he won't have another one.
Jones plays for a inferior team that lost just as much talent as Penn State lost.
The quality of athlete and team talent at Penn State (right now at least) is higher than at MSU.

What happened here? Did the media bow to political correctness and somehow think that a vote for Bowman was a vote for marijuana use? Anyway you look at it, logic was defied in picking Jones as the PDPOY.

Here is our review of Bowman and Jones in the offseason.