SB Nation - Phil Taylor

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:15:23 -0000

As we enter the second game of what Gary Pinkel is calling Mizzou's second season, let's take a look at where Art Briles' Baylor Bears present a threat, and where they've been hurt worst by the loss of Robert Griffin to a season-ending knee injury.

It was supposed to be different this year. Thanks to Hot Tub Griffin III, Baylor was going to threaten for a bowl game. They were actually exciting to watch for once, and Hot Tub was Rock M Nation's unanimous favorite non-Mizzou player.

Okay, you twisted my arm...one last time this season...

One last moment of silence, please. The knee injury that robbed Baylor (and us) of nine games of Hot Tub greatness* has left Baylor lifeless on offense, and despite an increase in overall team speed on offense and a relatively salty defense, the Bears sit at 3-5, 0-4 in the Big 12. Their best chance at a Big 12 win--a trip to Iowa State--ended with an easy, 14-point loss. We have all died a little inside without Hot Tub in our lives...and Baylor has died on the outside.

* Just for effect, I should once again point out that Griffin PLAYED THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN STATE GAME (well, all of the game that the first-string played) with a torn ACL suffered on the first possession, attempted three rushes, and went 16-for-19 passing with 226 yards and three touchdowns. With a torn ACL. God I love that guy.

Alright, now that we're past that, it's time to look at the team Baylor does have, and the amount of threat that they represent for Mizzou at 1pm on Faurot Field.

Offense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

We're going to start with Baylor's overall "+" ranking, presented as we've presented data for every opponent, but this comes with a rather obvious disclaimer: Baylor's last five games without Griffin have shown a different type of team than the one that made up a chunk of these ratings. We'll take a look at Baylor, pre- and post-Griffin injury, after the initial spew of data.

Baylor Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	BU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.7 (40)	111.7 (35)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	104.7 (53)	104.8 (45)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	129.7 (29)	122.4 (33)

Rushing S&P+	133.2 (5)	102.7 (63)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (73)	118.3 (30)

Standard Downs S&P+	114.6 (33)	112.5 (35)
Passing Downs S&P+	123.6 (35)	115.0 (36)

Red Zone S&P+	128.6 (22)	104.4 (61)

Q1 S&P+	136.2 (15)	95.5 (77)
Q2 S&P+	106.0 (63)	135.8 (12)
Q3 S&P+	124.5 (26)	112.2 (41)
Q4 S&P+	105.4 (55)	115.8 (34)

1st Down S&P+	122.2 (20)	108.0 (49)
2nd Down S&P+	127.0 (22)	112.3 (41)
3rd Down S&P+	101.1 (74)	113.8 (38)

Line Yards+	105.9 (52)	101.6 (61)
Close Sack Rate+	95.7 (73)	93.3 (72)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	106.7 (57) / 108.3 (56)	101.9 (57) / 123.0 (37)

Analysis after the jump.

Now, let's look at the Baylor offense with and without Hot Tub III.

Baylor Offense: With & Without Griffin
Category	With Griffin	W/out Griffin
Close S&P+	120.3	89.1
Close SR+	111.1	92.2
Close PPP+	129.5	84.1

Rushing S&P+	169.5	74.0
Passing S&P+	89.0	94.3

Standard Downs S&P+	132.3	82.0
Passing Downs S&P+	79.8	113.4

Red Zone S&P+	150.7	102.8

Q1 S&P+	169.9	98.6
Q2 S&P+	77.1	96.4
Q3 S&P+	183.6	80.7
Q4 S&P+	87.6	96.7

First, it is worth noting that BU's actually a better passing team with Florence than with Griffin. That's not the biggest shocker in the world, but it does show that Florence is at least solid. And he's got a pretty deep WR corps (deep in that the #2 guy is about equal to the #6 guy) to work with, plus a nice, offensive-minded head coach. Also, for whatever reason, they're better in both Q2 and Q4 with Florence than they were with Griffin. You figure that one out, as I have no idea; of course, they are infinitely worse in Q1 and Q3, so usually the game is lost by the time Q4 (or even Q2) comes about, it appears. Mizzou might do Baylor some favors, as they are usually not particularly great in Q1, but it appears that Q3 is death for the Bears (strange, considering BU outscored Nebraska 10-0 in Q3 last week).

When Baylor Has the Ball...
Baylor Rushing	Advantage: Missouri
Baylor Passing	Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Baylor:	Q1
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2-Q4

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. Where applicable, I'll look at post-Griffin numbers.

Close Success Rate+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+ (though Passing Downs is close)
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st Down, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for Baylor...

Q1 S&P+
2nd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Without Griffin, Baylor has found the going a lot rougher in terms of utilizing their other weapons--WR Kendall Wright, RB Jay Finley, etc. They still have at least a decent offensive line, but that line will need to execute against Missouri's rapidly improving defensive line, and they will need to generate some early points, as Missouri assumes more and more of an advantage as the game wears on. And if Baylor gets handed any easy opportunities through turnovers or special teams, they simply must convert those opportunities into touchdowns.

Quarterback

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Nick Florence: 84-for-147 passing (57.1%), 942 yards (6.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT

So...any great nicknames for Nick Florence yet? He needs you now more than ever. Really, Florence hasn't been too bad passing the ball. He hasn't been great, but considering two of his four Big 12 starts have come against Oklahoma and Nebraska, two of the three best defenses in the conference (this week, they play the fourth-best, followed by the overall best next week against Texas), his numbers haven't been too bad. He is indeed just a redshirt freshman, and he was thrown into a no-win situation; granted he indeed has no wins, but he could be a lot worse. Let's just say that he's absolutely no worse than Blizzle Szyzzle, Blake Szymanski. No offense intended, Mr. Blizzle.

Running Back

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

Jay Finley: 42 carries, 261 yards (6.2 per carry), 2 TD; 4 receptions, 24 yards (6.0 per catch)
Jarred Salubi: 42 carries, 249 yards (5.9 per carry), 2 TD; 17 receptions, 134 yards (7.9 per catch)
Terrance Ganaway: 34 carries, 134 yards (3.9 per carry), 3 TD; 1 reception, 13 yards

Between Jay Finley and Jarred Salubi, Baylor has managed a pretty decent first-string RB this year. Unfortunately, most of their success came early in the season. Finley had 121 yards on eight carries against UConn, while Salubi had 131 in seven carries against Northwestern State. Since Griffin's injury, Finley has managed 49 yards in just 20 carries (2.5 per carry) while recovering from a sprained ankle and pulled quad, while Salubi has only been slightly better at 118 yards in 35 carries (3.4 per carry). Injuries haven't helped here, but the injury that hurt most of all was obviously Griffin's. Without the dual threat QB, teams are able to focus a lot more on the RBs.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Joining [Kendall] Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

WR Kendall Wright: 40 catches, 448 yards (11.2 per catch), 2 TD; 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3 per carry), 1 TD
WR David Gettis: 31 catches, 426 yards (13.7 per catch), 3 TD
WR Ernest Smith: 26 catches, 280 yards (10.8 per catch); 1 carry, 5 yards
WR Lanear Sampson: 15 catches, 130 yards (8.7 per catch), 1 TD

TE Justin Akers: 14 catches, 124 yards (8.9 per catch), 1 TD
TE Brad Taylor: 8 catches, 90 yards (11.2 per catch)

In Baylor's first game post-Griffin, Kendall Wright had 125 yards in nine catches against Kent State, suggesting there was life even with a dry hot tub. However, in the past four games he has managed only 16 catches for 134 yards and has scored zero touchdowns (of course, Baylor as a whole has scored only four, so that's not saying a lot). Justin Akers (against OSU) and David Gettis (against Nebraska) have stepped up recently, but until more than one weapon shows up for a given game, Baylor's whole aerial attack is grounded. Wow, I did not intend that weak pun there. C'est la vie.

Offensive Line

Now [Jason] Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

Looking at Baylor's Line Yardage and Sack Rates, you get the distinct impression that this isn't a particularly good or bad line. In fact, with rankings around 60th in all categories, you could say the line is actually perfectly average. Unfortunately for Baylor, Mizzou's defensive line has been improving significantly in conference play and is quite likely well above average right now, especially with Aldon Smith surging and a much less mobile quarterback looking for open receivers. This matchup has gone from a draw to a distinct Mizzou advantage in recent weeks.

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Defense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Baylor Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	BU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	100.0 (60)	106.2 (57)
Close Success Rate+	94.2 (84)	103.6 (58)
Close PPP+	109.0 (44)	112.8 (56)

Rushing S&P+	86.3 (98)	102.1 (67)
Passing S&P+	118.4 (29)	110.8 (51)

Standard Downs S&P+	99.5 (63)	105.0 (60)
Passing Downs S&P+	109.1 (47)	109.7 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	122.7 (32)	70.7 (114)

Q1 S&P+	89.0 (86)	117.9 (50)
Q2 S&P+	102.5 (63)	100.2 (73)
Q3 S&P+	109.8 (45)	111.9 (52)
Q4 S&P+	101.1 (61)	102.4 (65)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (58)	102.6 (66)
2nd Down S&P+	95.2 (75)	106.6 (64)
3rd Down S&P+	109.1 (50)	118.9 (38)

Line Yards+	87.1 (101)	101.3 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	89.9 (78)	173.9 (16)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	79.1 (93) / 115.6 (45)	243.4 (8) / 124.7 (41)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage(ish): Baylor
Best Time for Baylor:	Q2-Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q1, Q4

With Gabbert looking much, much healthier against Colorado, we can at least tentatively put an end to the "injured Gabbert" period. So, since we did the "pre-and-post" treatment for Baylor, should we do the same for Mizzou? We know that Mizzou's offensive stats plummeted with Gabbert's ankle sprain, but we also know that the defenses Mizzou faced at that time were much better. Luckily, we have "+" numbers to account for the difference in competition level! So here are the numbers for when Blaine Gabbert had one and two healthy ankles (the "one healthy ankle" stats are for the last three quarters of the Nebraska game and all of the Texas and OSU games):

Missouri Offense: Healthy vs Injured Gabbert
Category	Healthy #11	Injured #11
Close S&P+	107.1	94.3
Close SR+	101.2	95.3
Close PPP+	114.1	93.1

Rushing S&P+	85.4	117.1
Passing S&P+	119.3	81.6

Standard Downs S&P+	103.4	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	90.9	98.2

Red Zone S&P+	70.6	108.4

Q1 S&P+	93.7	116.3
Q2 S&P+	91.3	107.2
Q3 S&P+	108.2	31.5
Q4 S&P+	101.7	81.4

Mizzou was significantly better at both rushing and red zone offense when Gabbert was hurt, but I think there is a bit of noise in the statistics there. Mizzou got a lot of credit for the touchdown they scored on their lone red zone trip against Texas, and that balanced out their craptastic execution against OSU. Either way, that's a damn small sample size. Meanwhile, the rushing success didn't seem to have anything to do with Gabbert limping around--it was seemingly more a result of Missouri's offensive line simply blocking better (and, potentially, their running backs running better).

Either way, we're definitely working with a small sample size here, but there are some conclusions that can be reached: 1) while Missouri's second-half execution against Colorado left something (okay, a lot) to be desired, they are still a much, much better second-half team with a healthy Gabbert. It's almost as if Missouri was able to disguise Gabbert's injury with good game-planning, but by the second half, they were out of tricks. Now, with Gabbert throwing more accurate passes and pulling down a couple of keepers, Missouri has a lot more options. Also, and this is some incredible statistical analysis here, 2) Missouri is a much better passing team when their quarterback can actually hit his targets.

With that in mind, let's look at Missouri's "healthy Gabbert" advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+
Sack Rates+

Baylor's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2 S&P+

With a healthy Gabbert, the passing game seems to be a draw, as do Q3 and Q4 S&P+ and 1st Down S&P+.

Defensive Line

Beyond [Penn State transfer Phil] Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

DE/DT Jason Lamb: 21.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 2 Blocked Kicks
DT Trey Bryant: 15.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 3 QBH
DE Zac Scotton: 12.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Phil Taylor: 11.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 QBH, 2 Blocked Kicks
DE Tracy Robertson: 10.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 3 QBH

So...has vaunted transfer Phil Taylor actually made a difference? Baylor's pass defense has actually been pretty solid, but their rushing defense has been horrible. If Mizzou's offensive line was able to open up holes for Derrick Washington and company and protect Blaine Gabbert from Colorado pass rushers, there's nothing saying they won't be able to do the same (and better) against Baylor. Maybe Taylor really is a difference-maker, but the rest of the line has been just terrible? Jason Lamb, who has been playing at Baylor since Grant Teaff was coach, has put up some decent numbers--as good as those of Mizzou's Jaron Baston and Dominique Hamilton--but he's pretty much it. If he's not making a nice play, then Baylor's relying on the LBs.

Linebackers

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Joe Pawelek: 52.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 2 PBU
Antonio Jones: 47.0 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
Antonio Johnson: 41.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU
Chris Francis: 21.0 tackles
Elliot Coffey: 20.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Earl Patin: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

I really was pretty impressed with Joe Pawelek last year, but while he's been rock solid this year, it doesn't seem like he's been quite the playmaker I was expecting. He's still good, though, and the Two Antonios have combined with Pawelek to form what is certainly a decent unit. As I put it in the offseason, Baylor has struggled in certain areas (i.e. run defense), but they're not the reason why. And they're fast enough to do decent things in pass coverage.

Secondary

Jordan Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

S Jordan Lake: 48.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF
S Jeremy Williams: 25.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
CB Clifton Odom: 22.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 4 PBU
S Byron Landor: 22.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBU
CB Tim Atchison: 21.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 PBU
CB Chance Casey: 18.5 tackles, 2 INT, 1 QBH, 4 PBU
S Mike Hicks: 12.5 tackles

If Pawelek hasn't been quite what I thought this year, Jordan Lake REALLY hasn't been what I thought. He was a pretty strong, disruptive player in 2008; this year, he's just a tackler. One forced fumble, one tackle for loss, and no interceptions? Huh. In all, though, Baylor's pass defense really has been pretty decent this year; I mean, ranking 47th isn't amazing by any means, but with a sieve for a run defense, the secondary has been the least of their problems. Can you tell I haven't at all been impressed with their defensive line?

Special Teams

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Punt Returns Rank: 22nd (Krys Buerck: 12 Returns, 7.5 Avg)
Net Punting Rank: 89th (Derek Epperson: 45.2 Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 39th (Terrance Williams: 13 Returns, 26.0 Avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 44th

Field Goals: 4-for-8 (Long: 41) (113th)
PATs: 17-for-18

If the special teams play involves a Baylor player with the ball in his hands, running upfield, then Baylor's special teams unit is pretty solid. If it involves somebody in a Baylor uniform kicking...not so much. Derek Epperson ranks in the nation's top 20 in overall punt average, but their net average has been hurt by two blocked punts, and they're giving up almost 17 yards per return (with one touchdown). Ouch. And Ben Parks has been far from great as place-kicker. But hey, Krys Buerck and Terrance Williams are bright spots. That's something.

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Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over. With Blaine Gabbert's arm, I love the idea of going deep quite a few times, but with the advantages Missouri will have in other regards, Missouri really just needs to avoid Passing Downs disaster, and they should be alright. It's rare one of my keys is "stay relatively conservative and don't do anything stupid," but that does appear to be the case here. I like to surprise myself sometimes.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. (SPREAD DOESN'T WORK NEED FULLBACK RAWR!!!!! ET CETERA. Just thought I'd get that out of the way so that doesn't come up and I don't have to point out that Missouri's red zone offense has been just fine in the spread the last few years.) Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

Prediction

Clearly this is Missouri's game to lose. It is Baylor at home, after all. However, even without Robert Griffin, this Baylor team has more weapons and team speed than previous Bears iterations, and if Missouri lets them hang around, loses the turnover battle, gets some bad bounces, allows a big play or two, etc., Baylor can absolutely win this game. As long as Missouri plays average or better, they should move to 6-3 and bowl eligibility. The numbers say Mizzou by 16.5, so we'll say Mizzou 30, Baylor 13. Run the ball well, rip off a big play or two, don't commit any awful turnovers, and let Mizzou's defensive weapons--Sean Weatherspoon, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, etc.--make the plays they can make.

Revisiting Baylor

Husker Mike — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 11:53:20 -0000

More photos » by Rod Aydelotte - AP

When Robert Griffin tore his ACL against Northwestern State last month, it also tore apart the dreams of a breakthrough season for the Bears. (AP Photo/Waco Tribune Herald, Rod Aydelotte)

Browse more photos »

Baylor certainly started season on the right note, going 3-1 in the non-conference schedule including a 24-21 upset of Wake Forest in the season opener. But then the Bears took a turn for the worst when Robert Griffin tore his ACL. This month, Baylor has only scored 24 points in three games, a number that looks unlikely to change much with the Blackshirts coming for a visit this weekend.

It's not just the loss of Robert Griffin that has "da Bearsh" reeling. Running back Jay Finley has been injured along with defensive tackle Phil Taylor. In that light, it might seem irrelevant to look at our season preview of Baylor, but let's review it again.

During the first twelve years of the Big XII, Baylor established themselves as the doormat of the conference in football. Some even suggested that Baylor be removed from the Big XII, feeling it was hopeless for the Bears to ever be able to compete. Certainly it's unclear whether Baylor would have ever been invited to join the Big XII if it wasn't for the efforts former Texas governor (and Baylor alumn) Ann Richards. But a funny thing happened in 2008. Baylor football showed signs of life.

Baylor hired former Houston coach Art Briles to take over for Guy Morriss, and convinced his prized recruit, quarterback Robert Griffin to sign with the Bears. The season started in typical Baylor fashion, losing 41-13 to Baylor. But two weeks later, the Bears caught the notice of the nation by walloping Washington State 45-17 as Robert Griffin ran for 217 yards. Baylor would go on to finish 4-8 and break out of the Big XII doghouse by defeating Iowa State and Texas A&M rather handily. From that squad, the Bears return 18 starters in 2009; a scary proposition for the rest of the conference.

Robert Griffin returns at quarterback after a stellar true freshman season, being named the Big XII offensive freshman of the year. A dual threat wizard, he rushed for 843 yards and 13 touchdowns, and threw for 2091 yards, 15 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. He set an NCAA freshman record by throwing 209 passes in a row without an interception, nearly breaking the Big XII mark of 213. That's downright scary. Then consider his speed: he's a legitimate track star who hopes to run in the 2012 London Olympics.

That's freaky scary. I guess for Nebraska's sake, it's probably better to have Baylor on the schedule for Griffin's freshman and sophomore seasons, as opposed to his junior and senior seasons.

But Baylor isn't a one-trick pony; running back Jay Finley did outrush Griffin last season, adding seven touchdowns to the mix. He'll ensure balance in the Bears offense for his junior season. Griffin's primary targets in the passing game will be sophomore Kendall Wright, with 649 yards and five touchdowns last season, and senior David Gettis, a former track star in his own right.

Up front, the Bears return two starters, senior right guard James Barnard and senior center J.D. Walton. They'll miss all-American left tackle Jason Smith, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams with the #2 pick this spring. Two junior college transfers will take over at tackle, junior right tackle Marquis Franklin and junior left tackle Danny Watkins. Watkins is a 24 year old Canadian who took up football a couple of years ago and became a junior college all-American.

If you were paying attention to the preseason all-Big XII teams, you might have been surprised that Baylor had more first team selections than Nebraska did. Here's the scary thing: they're all on defense. Up front, the Bears will be led by senior defensive end Jason Lamb and junior defensive tackle Phil Taylor. Taylor, who transferred from Penn State after getting into an on-campus fight, was named preseason newcomer of the year.

All three linebackers return, including all-Big XII senior middle linebacker Joe Pawelek, who had 128 tackles and six interceptions last season. Bookmarking Pawelek are the Antonios: senior Antonio Jones and junior Antonio Johnson.

In the secondary, two part time starters return at cornerback in juniors Antareis Bryan and Tim Atchison, but the star is senior all-Big XII safety Jordan Lake, who merely added 97 tackles and three interceptions last season. Senior Jeremy Williams will man the other safety spot.

Last year's Baylor squad got people's attention by scaring Connecticut, Nebraska, and Missouri last season. Just before Thanksgiving, the Bears beat A&M, thus ensuring that A&M can now be referred to as the "new Baylor" of the Big XII, since the Bears are no longer the conference doormat. This year, they get UConn and the Huskers at home. The schedule sets up a scary Halloween matchup for the Huskers with the Bears, who might finally be shaking the "Bad News Bears" reputation this season.

Poll

What happens when the Huskers visit Baylor on Halloween?

14%

The Bears go down in flames, much like David Koresh's compound

47 votes

54%

Just like last year, the Huskers find a way to win this game

177 votes

19%

Baylor finally breaks through and wins a close one

65 votes

11%

Baylor wins in a blowout, meaning that every Big XII team has embarrased Nebraska this decade.

37 votes

326 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou Links, Labor Day Edition

Bill C. — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 16:04:39 -0000

Still working on a national wrap-up post, but that will probably come tomorrow when the last two national games of the week (Cincy-Rutgers, FSU-Miami). So for now, you get more Mizzou links (and some Big 12 ones as well).

Mizzou-Illinois Wrap-up!

Dave Matter: Emptying the Notebook
Now that we’ve seen what the ’09 Tigers are capable of, is it fair to reasonably expect double-digit wins? Are the Tigers suddenly North Division favorites? Unless Saturday was a mirage — and I don’t think it was — is it fair to say the Tigers could win every remaining game against teams not named Texas?
Yes or no, Gary Pinkel cautioned against any broad conclusions following one game, albeit one very impressive game against a better opponent than all but two Big 12 peers played.

"I would not judge" the program "after this game," he said. "It’s the next step. The bigger game now is next week, because we lost the edge a little bit. I told them in the locker room this is going to be the toughest Tuesday-Wednesday practices they’ve ever seen. And their body language wasn’t really good when I said that. But that’s OK. When you’re winning, you can do anything to them."

(Unlike, I suppose, at Michigan.)
Campus Corner (KC Star): Concerning Gabbert, Restraint Be, uh, Darned
Mizzourah: Week 1 Morning After - Illanoy
SI.com (Stewart Mandel): Blaine Gabbert, Matt Barkley, Greg Paulus Impress in debuts
Post-Dispatch: Trip is costly for Illini
PRnewswire.com: Jimmy Clausen, Blaine Gabbert, Rahim Moore and Joe Pawelek Announced as Week One Nominees for the AT&T All-America Player of the Week Award

From Gary Pinkel on Twitter:

Tiger Fans- We MUST have 70,000 in Gold in THE ZOU this weekend for the opener! MUST! GO TIGERS!

YOU HEARD THE MAN!! MUST!!!!!!!

And from Palestra.net...

A look ahead!

Post-Dispatch: Pinkel cautious about Tigers' early success
[A]t first blush, anyway, Tigers defenders seem revitalized under first-year defensive coordinator Dave Steckel.

They generated more pressure, including three sacks, with fewer men rushing. They forced two turnovers and minimized big plays, with Illinois' longest rush for 15 yards and longest pass for 24.

And even on the 24-yard pass, to Jarred Fayson, MU defensive back Jasper Simmons was glued to Fayson.

Last season, Williams threw for 451 yards. This season: 179.
PowerMizzou: Like Father, Unlike Son: Revised Expectations?

Big 12 Links!

BYU > OU
Crimson and Cream Machine: An Attempt to Properly Summarize the Debacle in Arlington
Nebraska > Florida Atlantic
Corn Nation: Husker Report Card: Florida Atlantic
Husker Extra: QB Lee solid in first start
Omaha World-Herald: Huskers look good in opener, and it appears they'll need to be

On a wild first Saturday of college football, Nebraska's 2009 schedule came into focus. It's tougher today than it was yesterday.

Missouri looks better than advertised. The Tigers whipped up on Illinois 37-9, and made it look easy. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert looked like a poised veteran, not a shaky sophomore making his first start. The story of the game might have been MU's defense. The Big 12 North hopes the easy explanation is that Illinois just stinks.

Baylor is as good as advertised. The Bears took a gutsy win in the middle of ACC country, outlasting Wake Forest 24-21. Quarterback Robert Griffin is already a "bear'' to deal with.
Kansas > Northern Colorado
LJWorld.com: Reesing's four combined TDs lead KU to 49-3 rout over Northern Colorado
Topeka Capital-Journal: KU notepad, grade card
K-State > UMass
Bring on the Cats: Postgame Reaction: K-State vs Massachusetts
Campus Corner (KC Star): Postgame: K-State 21, UMass 17
Oklahoma State > Georgia
SI.com (Andy Staples): Oklahoma State uses SEC-style defense to stifle Georgia
Texas > UL-Monroe
Burnt Orange Nation: Post-Game React: Texas 59 Louisiana-Monroe 20
Baylor > Wake Forest
Waco Tribune: Baylor football savors 24-21 win over Wake Forest in opener
Waco Tribune: Baylor's nimble giant Phil Taylor shows his versatility
ESPN.com: Mistakes prove costly for Wake Forest
Oklahoma State > Georgia
Tulsa World: OSU tempers victory party, regains its focus
Daily Oklahoman: OSU's Dez Bryant comes through...eventually
Texas Tech > North Dakota
Double-T Nation: Drive Chart :: North Dakota 13, Texas Tech 38
Texas A&M > New Mexico
Dallas Morning News: Aggies have no trouble with New Mexico, 41-6
Colorado State > Colorado
Ralphie Report: Steve Fairchild Was Right, The Colorado Buffaloes Look Silly
I believed that a change in the offense would bring the smash mouth back to Colorado football but realized after a sweep wide on 4th and one that no offensive scheme can teach will, toughness and desire to get something accomplished but rather something that you have inside. Too many times we have seen lackadaisical performances, little energy and no response to sudden change during a game.
Shame on me, shame on me.

I never thought I would feel this stupid after a football game.

Other!

NY Times: NFL Teams Unleash Offense, With a Nod to the College Game

Poll

How much have you revised your expectations for Mizzou this year after Saturday's win?

None. It was fun, but Illinois really isn't very good.

18 votes

+1 win. I definitely think we can compete for and win the North this year.

132 votes

A ton! Exactly why can't we win ten games now?

51 votes

201 votes | Poll has closed

September 5, 2009: Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Baylor Bears Football Preview

MRickman84 — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 16:00:39 -0000

The time has finally come. Jake and I finished up our first preview of the year, and it couldn't come at a better time. Finally, all of the preseason articles and predictions do not mean squat anymore--now the play on the field will dictate what means what. We're trying a format different from our basketball previews, so let us know if you like the layout. We are always looking for ways to evolve and change. So, without further ado, here is the preview for the Wake Forest-Baylor game this Saturday.

Breaking Down The Bears

Baylor is a funny team to analyze. They won just four games last year and had defensive troubles in the always dangerous Big 12. However, underneath the record are a number of extremely dangerous weapons. LB Joe Pawelek is a stud. FS Jordan Lake is extremely consistent. Robert Griffin has all of the tools to be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and can only build off of his freshman campaign. Plus, he has a running back who had 865 yards and 5.8 YPC in Jay Finley and a star receiver in sophomore Kendall Wright (50 rec, 649 yards; 168 yards rushing).

This Baylor team has a lot of pieces in place but the question remains whether or not Art Briles can put together the puzzle and bring the Bears to a bowl game. Standing in their way will be the Demon Deacons, who won 41-13 last year and are playing this game in front of an extremely football-hungry home crowd. Will Baylor be able to start their season off right and use a win for momentum? Will a loss hurt the team’s morale and push them into a funk? Or, will that loss provide motivation to come back the next week and move forward? A lot of questions might be answered for both teams on Saturday.

Stopping RG3

That’s right. Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin has come so far since the last time we saw the Bears that he went from backup QB to starter to earning himself a nickname. And as well he deserved it. All the praise for a freshman phenom quarterback went to Terrelle Pryor last year, but Griffin had an eye-popping season too. Just for comparison:

Pryor: 1311 yards, 60.6 completion percentage, 12 TDs, 4 INTs, 631 yds rushing, 4.5 yds per carry.

Griffin: 2091 yards, 59.9 completion percentage, 15 TDs, 3 INTs, 846 yds rushing, 4.9 yds per carry.

It’s close, but the edge goes to Griffin in my opinion. What does that mean for the Deacs? Simple, the young defense will be tested early. The linebacker corps, without stars Stanley Arnoux and a guy by the name of Aaron Curry, will be asked to step up and fly to Griffin when he gets past the defensive line. The DEs will need to contain and stay disciplined. And the offense needs to sustain long drives to keep RG3 off the field. If those things happen, Wake Forest will be able to hold Griffin in check.

Ghee Leads Young Corners

Replacing a player like Alphonso Smith is never easy, but having an All-ACC caliber player such as senior Brandon Ghee certainly softens the blow. While most Wake fans are confident in his abilities, the other cornerbacks are unproven. Sophomore Michael Williams had a great spring and summer and was promoted to the other starting cornerback spot. At 6’1", he certainly has great size for the position as well as good hands, which he exhibited at the spring game by making a spectacular one-handed interception. Josh Bush, the only other returning defensive back with significant game experience, will likely see time at both safety and cornerback. Finally, make sure to look out for redshirt freshman Kenny Okoro on Saturday. Coach Grobe had great things to say about him during his redshirt season, so it will be interesting to see what kind of impact he makes in his debut. While it would likely be beneficial to give the corners a game or two to become comfortable on the field, this inexperienced unit will be tested instantly by the playmaking ability of Robert Griffin.

Weapons At Wideout

Before each Demon Deacon season it is tough to tell who will be the go-to guy at wide receiver. Last season Demir Boldin stepped up tremendously from his previous years and led the ACC in total receptions. This season is no different, as four guys look to step up and fill the void. The most experienced is Marshall Williams, who had a couple memorable touchdown receptions last season against Ole Miss and N.C. State.

Jordan Williams struggled to get playing time last season after earning snaps as a true freshman, but has improved his work ethic in an effort to make a big impact this season. Devon (Y’lou) Brown and freshman Chris Givens are both small, speedy receivers that will likely get some looks in the orbit as well. It will be intriguing to see if one guy stands out and becomes the primary receiver or if Wake has more of a receiver by committee approach.

Double-duty For Popham?

After being thrown into the fire last season after Sam Swank’s lingering injury, Shane Popham will look to prove that he belongs. After winning a tough battle against ex-soccer player Cline Beam and freshman Jimmy Newman, he should receive ample opportunity to demonstrate that he is a capable ACC-level kicker. The depth chart also reveals that he won the punting job over freshman Alex Wulfeck. It is also important to note that Popham will likely get a break from doing kickoffs, as Beam will likely serve this role after showing off his strong leg in practice thus far.

On the other side, Baylor does not appear to be any better off in this area. Bears sophomore kicker Ben Parks missed five extra point attempts last season and was only six of nine on field goals, with a long of 42.

The Battle In The Trenches

When Wake Forest is on the defensive side of the ball, one battle they must win is the one upfront. On paper, this is likely the Deacs’ biggest advantage in the game as emotional team leaders Boo Robinson and John Russell command attention against a Baylor offensive line with big holes to fill.

The Bears lost second overall NFL draft pick Jason Smith at left tackle as well as three year starter Dan Gay at right tackle. Looking to replace these losses are JuCo transfer Danny Watkins, who did not start playing football until junior college, and freshman Cameron Kaufhold. Baylor does, however, have experience at the interior positions, with three year starter James Barnard and talented center J.D. Walton leading the way, Mohawks and all.

For Wake, it will be important for the guys upfront to get pressure and try to minimize big play opportunities for Robert Griffin, especially young defensive ends Kyle Wilber and Tristan Dorty. As is the case in most games, the battle in the trenches will ultimately determine the outcome of Saturday’s showdown.

Not Just A Kid From Jacksonville

Riley Skinner has a mission this season: to bring another ACC Championship to Winston-Salem. That claim might seem outlandish, but not for a quarterback who in his freshman season took home the title and has led the team to two straight bowl wins since. Last season, despite the offensive line hiccups, Skinner still threw for 2,347 yards with a 65.8 completion percentage. His leadership will be the key to this season’s success.

With the team going back to the I-Formation this year, it is critical for Skinner to manage games the same way he has in the past by limiting mistakes and taking shots when he has the opportunity. As a quarterback goes, a team goes, and with Riley at the helm, the Demon Deacons should feel pretty good about getting to a fourth straight bowl game. All that stands in the way to a good start is the Baylor Bears, and don’t think for a second that Skinner isn’t ready for the challenge.

A Return To Smashmouth

The offensive line’s troubles last season have been well-documented. I’m not going to go into it. If you want proof, just look into the endless number of articles that have been written this summer about how the offensive line needs to step up after last season. That’s true. It is absolutely imperative that the Deacs go back to their strong point from seasons prior. With three completely capable running backs—Brandon Pendergrass, Josh Adams and White Lightning Kevin Harris—as well as two stud FBs in Rinfrette and freshman Tommy Bohanon, this team seems poised to break out in the running game in a big way.

They go up against a Baylor team that was 91st in the nation on the defensive line and lost three starters. But they do gain Phil Taylor, a player who has been maligned with all kinds of trouble, including being kicked off the Penn State team. Regardless, the kid is enormous at 6’4", 355 lbs. And that’s not a typo. Fortunately, the Deacs return their entire offensive line and all of the injuries and guys playing out of position last season should definitely help the depth and confidence of the unit. Having potential pro Chris DeGeare back from suspension certainly will not hurt either. I fully expect the Deacs to have a lot of success running the football this season.

BTBS National Preview, Part Two

Bill C. — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 19:00:17 -0000

Yesterday we took a look at the projected Top 25 in terms of rough BTBS projections. Today we ride those projections to their inevitable conclusion and look at projected standings and bowls. As a reminder, these are strictly what the numbers say, not my own personal opinion--I'm on record saying Missouri's projection is too high. Also, the projections I made through the summer have been updated to incorporate the projected turnover points data I spoke about yesterday. So without further adieu...

Big 12

North Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Missouri	6-2	10-3	Holiday
Nebraska	5-3	9-3	Alamo
Kansas	4-4	8-4	Independence
Kansas State	3-5	6-6
Colorado	2-6	5-7
Iowa State	0-8	3-9
South Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Texas*	8-0	13-0	BCS Championship
Oklahoma	7-1	11-1	Fiesta
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	Cotton
Texas Tech	4-4	8-4	Sun
Texas A&M	2-6	5-7
Baylor	1-7	3-9

As I mentioned before, not having a "All-Americans lost" qualifier instead of just "starters lost" helps Missouri out quite a bit, as did the turnover numbers from 2008. I don't think they'll go 10-2, but...well, obviously I wouldn't complain if it happened.
Honestly, I'm thinking a more likely scenario in the South is that OU beats Texas, then OU loses to somebody else and they both end up 11-1. OU's offensive line won't kill them often, but it will bite them once, I think. And honestly, I've seen quite a few people now say that Texas will beat OU because their O-line is better than OU's. But...well, their O-lines won't face off against each other, will they? The Texas D-line is perfectly qualified from a "caliber of recruit" perspective, but until I see somebody doing pretty credible Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller impersonations, then that's a question mark just like OU's offensive line is.
(And as I mentioned yesterday, there is a separation of about 0.01 between OU and Texas right now, so...yeah.)
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #1: I think Baylor will be better than 3-9, but they did benefit a little more than you'd expect from turnovers last year, so we'll see. They might still be a year away from true bowl contention. Then again, if Phil Taylor is what they say he is, that's a bonus the numbers don't account for.

ACC

Atlantic Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Clemson*	6-2	10-3	Orange
Florida State	6-2	8-4	Chick-Fil-A
Boston College	5-3	9-3	Champs Sports
Wake Forest	4-4	8-4	Emerald
Maryland	4-4	7-5	EagleBank
N.C. State	3-5	7-5	GMAC
Coastal Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Miami-FL	5-3	7-6	Meineke Car Care
Georgia Tech	5-3	8-4	Gator
Virginia Tech	5-3	7-5	Music City
Virginia	3-5	5-7
North Carolina	2-6	5-7
Duke	0-8	2-10

Another massive jumble in the ACC, where eight of 12 teams are projected between 3-5 and 5-3. Clemson and Florida State seem to have a slight edge over everybody else, and Clemson wins the tie-breaker.
Projected Disappointment #1: Virginia Tech. They benefitted tremendously from turnovers last year (#1 in the country in Turnover Points Margin), and while I'm pretty sure Frank Beamer teams always end up on the right side of the turnover battle, they should still see a fall of 5-6 points per game. That's enough to drop them into a major dogfight with Miami and Georgia Tech for the division crown.
I'm not sure what the tie-breaker rules are in the ACC, but here's how Miami wins the Coastal--all three teams go 1-1 against each other, while Miami goes 3-0 against the rest of the Coastal (GT and VT both go 2-1). So they earn the right to lose to Clemson in the title game. But I'll say this: I do think Clemson-Miami title game would get a lot more viewers/attendance than the last couple of VT-BC showdowns...so they have that going for them...which is nice.
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #2: I think North Carolina will go better than 5-7. I also think Maryland could sneak into 8-9 wins if things bounce right, but we'll see.

Big East

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Rutgers	5-2	9-3	Orange
Cincinnati	4-3	8-4	Papajohns.com
Connecticut	4-3	8-4	International
Pittsburgh	4-3	8-4	Meineke Car Care
South Florida	4-3	8-4	St. Petersburg
West Virginia	4-3	8-4	Gator
Louisville	3-4	7-5	Insight
Syracuse	0-7	2-10

Man oh man, I really hope Syracuse knocks off Rutgers, and we have a six-way tie for first (Rutgers is already losing to Louisville, so we can't have the 7-way tie I was aiming for), and all at 8-4, no less.. Nothing entertained me more than when that happened in the SWC in the mid-'90s. As it stands, this should still be a ridiculously fun slap-fight to watch.
Really, all of this seems pretty plausible, though I think some folks would disagree with Louisville doing that well. They're still benefitting from solid 5-year numbers, thanks to the end of the Petrino era, and that probably has them a bit high.
I mentioned a while back that the initial (non-turnover-influenced) numbers had Rutgers going 12-0. I was disappointed to see that projection fall, but they're still a game better than everybody else, I guess.

Big Ten

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Penn State	8-0	12-0	Rose
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	Sugar
Iowa	6-2	10-2	Capital One
Illinois	5-3	7-5	Outback
Wisconsin	4-4	8-4	Alamo
Minnesota	4-4	7-5	Champs Sports
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	Insight
Michigan State	3-5	6-6	Texas
Michigan	2-6	6-6	Motor City
Indiana	1-7	4-8
Purdue	1-7	3-9

Penn State is projected to beat Ohio State by 1.1 points...and that's the only game projected within 12 points. They do suffer some pretty scary losses at WR, but their schedule sets up quite nicely for a good run nonetheless.
Would Michigan accept a Motor City Bowl bid? Normally, I would say no, but after last year, they just might.
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #3: I think that Michigan State will end up doing pretty well this year, opening the offense up a bit after leaning so heavily on Javon Ringer last year. Not that there's anything wrong with a Texas Bowl showdown against mighty UL-Lafayette or anything, ahem, but I think they'll do better than that.

Conference USA

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Southern Miss	7-1	9-4	Armed Forces
Marshall	5-3	7-5	Hawaii
Memphis	4-4	5-7
UAB	4-4	5-7
Central Florida	3-5	5-7
East Carolina	3-5	4-8
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Tulsa*	7-1	10-3	Liberty
Houston	7-1	9-3	St. Petersburg
SMU	4-4	7-5	New Orleans
Rice	3-5	5-7
Tulane	1-7	2-10
UTEP	0-8	2-10

This appears to be a 3-team league this year, with Southern Miss, Tulsa, and Houston fighting it out for supremacy.
Because of the mediocrity everywhere else in the league, SMU sneaks into a bowl bid...which I must admit, would be pretty cool.
Projected Disappointment #2: East Carolina. They were heavy on the smoke and mirrors last year, winning the conference despite wholly mediocre stats (after beating WVU and VT, anyway). They're clearly well-coached, and because of that they might always overachieve above the projections, but they're a pretty good candidate for disappointment when all is said and done.
Looks like this might be Mike Price's last year with a West Texas zip code.

Independents

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Notre Dame	N/A	6-6	Poinsettia
Navy	N/A	6-7
Army	N/A	5-7

Projected Disappointment #3: Notre Dame. Mentioned this yesterday, but projecting Notre Damn is damn impossible right now. A hair better than projected, and they shoot straight to 10-2 or 11-1. A hair worse, and the Charlie Weis Era ends at 3-9 or 4-8.
You mean Navy might actually miss a bowl this year?? That never happens...meanwhile, Army almost sneaks into a bid, but a 10-point loss to Navy ends the dream.

MAC

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Bowling Green	7-1	7-6	GMAC
Ohio	5-3	7-5	Humanitarian
Akron	5-3	6-6
Temple	4-4	6-6	EagleBank
Kent State	3-5	4-8
Miami-OH	1-7	1-11
Buffalo	0-8	1-11
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Central Michigan*	7-1	9-4	Motor City
Northern Illinois	5-3	7-5	International
Toledo	5-3	6-6	New Mexico
Ball State	4-4	6-6
Eastern Michigan	3-5	4-8
Western Michigan	3-5	4-8

I realize Akron would probably get a bid over Temple with a better conference record, but I just couldn't resist. There should be rules like "If you haven't been to a bowl in __ years, and you win six games, you're in no matter what."
Projected Disappointment #4: Buffalo. Another smoke-and-mirrors team, Buffalo relied on a heavy 4.5-point advantage in turnovers to win a dead-even division and upset Ball State for the conference title. Turner Gill's too good a coach for them to actually go 1-11, but it would surprise me if they're able to get back to a bowl this year, especially after losing their starting running back.
Projected Disappointment #5: Western Michigan. Most have Central Michigan winning the conference, of course, but it seems like most have Western Michigan as the second-best team. Apparently the numbers disagree.

Mountain West

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
TCU	8-0	12-0	Fiesta
BYU	7-1	10-2	Las Vegas
Utah	6-2	9-3	Armed Forces
Air Force	3-5	5-7
Colorado State	3-5	5-7
New Mexico	3-5	4-8
San Diego State	2-6	5-7
UNLV	2-6	3-9
Wyoming	2-6	3-9

I don't see TCU getting past Clemson in Death Valley, but if they do they could be staring 12-0 in the face. Of course, now that I've said that, watch them lose to Virginia this week.
This is kind of a nightmare scenario for the Mountain West--people will be watching them extra closely this year after all the "let them join the BCS!" talk this offseason, and having only three teams qualify for a bowl (with three more stuck at 5 wins) would damage the perception quite a bit.
Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #4: I admit it. I'm a complete and total homer. But if Dave Christensen can bring any offensive improvement to the equation, a defense that improved significantly down the stretch last year could at least get them to 4-5 wins instead of three. They have six games projected within seven points and are projected to go 2-4 in those games. Go 4-2, and that's some pretty good first-year improvement right there.

Pac-10

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Oregon	9-0	11-1	Rose
USC	8-1	10-2	Holiday
California	7-2	10-2	Sun
Oregon State	6-3	9-3	Las Vegas
Arizona	5-4	7-5	Emerald
UCLA	4-5	6-6	Poinsettia
Stanford	3-6	5-7
Arizona State	2-7	4-8
Washington	1-8	2-10
Washington State	0-9	0-12

Wherein I disagree with My Own Numbers, #5: USC was actually projected to go 11-1 (9-0), but I couldn't help it. I instituted a manual "starting a true freshman QB" penalty. I just don't see them winning in Eugene with a freshman QB who was very INT-prone last year in high school, and a defensive line that potentially can't take much advantage of Oregon's young offensive line.
If Stanford gets anything from their defense, their offense should be able to bear a big load in getting them to a bowl. They have nine games projected within nine points or less, going 4-5 in those nine. They're projected to lose by 0.8 points to UCLA in a "winner is bowl eligible game," so they're certainly close.

SEC

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Florida*	8-0	13-0	BCS Championship
Georgia	7-1	10-2	Capital One
Tennessee	4-4	8-4	Outback
South Carolina	2-6	4-8
Vanderbilt	2-6	4-8
Kentucky	1-7	4-8
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Alabama	7-1	11-2	Sugar
LSU	6-2	10-2	Cotton
Arkansas	4-4	8-4	Chick-Fil-A
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	Music City
Auburn	3-5	7-5	Independence
Mississippi State	0-8	1-11

Projected Disappointment #6: Ole Miss, who in most cases should be perfectly happy with a chance at 9-4--that would mean they've bounced up from the ashes in which they resided during Ed Orgeron's tenure and sustained the bounce--but now 8-4 would be considered a disappointment for a Top 10 team. I definitely think the conventional wisdom is out of whack for the Rebels, who absolutely have a shot at glory with as agreeable a schedule as is possible in the SEC, but getting past both Alabama and LSU is a lot to ask, at home or on the road.
Both Tennessee and Auburn are riding "5-year success" numbers to a projected bounce-back season. I doubt they both bounce back, but I pretty much guarantee at least one will.
Meanwhile, Arkansas is projected to be quite stout this season, but their schedule bites them a bit, and they end up at 8-4...which is still decent improvement.
Poor Mississippi State. It's quite possible that Dan Mullen, their offensive whiz-kid coach they hired from Florida, can whip up some offensive success and make MSU better than expected, but the schedule is just brutal. Only two of their losses (Houston, Middle Tennessee) are projected within less than ten points, meaning anything better than 3-9 will take a pretty hefty upset.

Sun Belt

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Troy	8-0	10-2	Papajohns.com
Middle Tennessee	7-1	9-3	New Orleans
UL-Lafayette	5-3	6-6	Texas
Florida Atlantic	4-4	5-7
UL-Monroe	4-4	5-7
Florida International	4-4	4-8
Arkansas State	2-6	3-9
North Texas	1-7	1-11
Western Kentucky	1-7	1-11

Tight wins over Memphis (2.6 points), Mississippi State (5.4), Florida Atlantic (1.3), UL-Lafayette (6.3) and UL-Monroe (0.1) drive Middle Tennessee to a lovely projected season, but going 5-0 in games that close is a bit much to ask, I would think.
I'm not sure how this scenario would play out--if, because other conferences struggle to fill their bowl allotments and a better bowl than New Orleans opens up, I would assume the Sun Belt would try to strive for Troy to fill that slot and have their runner-up go to New Orleans instead, but I'm not sure. That's what I did here, with Troy jumping up to PapaJohns.com, while Middle Tennessee fills in in N'awlins.

WAC

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Boise State	8-0	13-0	Liberty
Nevada	7-1	10-2	New Mexico
Hawaii	5-3	9-4	Hawaii
Fresno State	5-3	6-6	Humanitarian
Louisiana Tech	4-4	5-7
Utah State	4-4	5-7
San Jose State	2-6	3-9
New Mexico State	1-7	2-11
Idaho	0-8	0-12

For what it's worth, I actually do think Utah State could be pretty solid this year. I know you were dying to know that.
Pretty clear who the class of the conference is here, though Boise's projections are interesting for two reasons: 1) they're projected to beat Oregon, and 2) if I'm not mistaken (and I very well could be), if two non-BCS teams go undefeated, the BCS bowls only have to take one unless one is in the title game. Is that right? If so, the lower-ranked of TCU and Boise would be S.O.L., and I'm not sure which team that would be. I had TCU ranked higher, so I went with them, but thanks to their reputation, Boise might actually be ranked higher despite losing head-to-head with TCU last year.

Bowl Projections

Date	Bowl	Tie-ins	Matchup
12/19	New Mexico	MWC vs WAC	Nevada (10-2) vs Toledo (6-6)
12/19	St. Petersburg	Big East vs C-USA	Houston (9-3) vs South Florida (8-4)
12/20	New Orleans	C-USA vs Sun Belt #1	Middle Tennessee (9-3) vs SMU (7-5)
12/22	Las Vegas	MWC #1 vs Pac-10	BYU (10-2) vs Oregon State (9-3)
12/23	Poinsettia	MWC vs Pac-10 #6	Notre Dame (6-6) vs UCLA (6-6)
12/24	Hawaii	C-USA vs WAC	Hawaii (9-4) vs Marshall (7-5)
12/26	Motor City	Big Ten #7 vs MAC	Central Michigan (9-4) vs Michigan (6-6)
12/26	Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-7 vs Big East #3	Pittsburgh (8-4) vs Miami-FL (7-6)
12/26	Emerald	ACC #5-7 vs Pac-10	Wake Forest (8-4) vs Arizona (7-5)
12/27	Music City	ACC #5-7 vs SEC	Ole Miss (8-4) vs Virginia Tech (7-5)
12/28	Independence	Big 12 vs SEC	Kansas (8-4) vs Auburn (7-5)
12/29	Eagle Bank	ACC #8 vs Army	Maryland (7-5) vs Temple (6-6)
12/29	Champs Sports	ACC #4 vs Big Ten #4-5	Boston College (9-3) vs Minnesota (7-5)
12/30	Humanitarian	MWC vs WAC	Ohio (7-5) vs Fresno State (6-6)
12/30	Holiday	Big 12 #3 vs Pac-10 #2	USC (10-2) vs Missouri (10-3)
12/30	Texas	Big 12 #8 vs Navy	Michigan State (6-6) vs UL-Lafayette (6-6)
12/31	Armed Forces	C-USA vs MWC	Utah (9-3) vs Southern Miss (9-4)
12/31	Sun	Big 12 vs Pac-10 #3	California (10-2) vs Texas Tech (8-4)
12/31	Insight	Big Ten #6 vs Big 12 #6	Northwestern (7-5) vs Lousiville (7-5)
12/31	Chick-Fil-A	ACC #2 vs SEC	Florida State (8-4) vs Arkansas (8-4)
1/1	Outback	Big Ten #3 vs SEC	Tennessee (8-4) vs Illinois (7-5)
1/1	Capital One	Big Ten #2 vs SEC	Georgia (10-2) vs Iowa (10-2)
1/1	Gator	ACC #3 vs Big East/ND	West Virginia (8-4) vs Georgia Tech (8-4)
1/1	Rose	BCS vs BCS	Penn State (12-0) vs Oregon (11-1)
1/1	Sugar	BCS vs BCS	Alabama (11-2) vs Ohio State (11-1)
1/2	International	Big East vs MAC	Connecticut (8-4) vs Northern Illinois (7-5)
1/2	PapaJohns.com	Big East vs SEC	Troy (10-2) vs Cincinnati (8-4)
1/2	Cotton	Big 12 #2 vs SEC	Oklahoma State (10-2) vs LSU (10-2)
1/2	Liberty	C-USA #1 vs SEC	Boise State (13-0) vs Tulsa (10-3)
1/2	Alamo	Big Ten #4-5 vs Big 12 #5	Nebraska (9-3) vs Wisconsin (8-4)
1/4	Fiesta	BCS vs BCS	TCU (12-0) vs Oklahoma (11-1)
1/5	Orange	BCS vs BCS	Clemson (10-3) vs Rutgers (9-3)
1/6	GMAC	ACC #9 vs MAC	N.C. State (7-5) vs Bowling Green (7-6)
1/7	BCS Championship	BCS #1 vs BCS #2	Florida (13-0) vs Texas (13-0)

Most interesting matchups: Independence, Cotton, Sugar, Gator, and Music City Bowls.
Least interesting: Texas, Texas, Texas, Texas, Texas, and Texas Bowls.
I would NOT be excited about playing USC in San Diego. Opportunity for greatness, etc., but yikes.
I can pretty much guarantee that the BCS Championship Game won't be this easy to pick. Strange things always happen (2004-05 aside), and needless to say the preseason #1 and #2 teams rarely make the title games in such clean fashion.

Penn State's Reason For Hope #4 - Larry Johnson Sr.

BSD — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 12:00:23 -0000

via blog.pennlive.com

View full size photo »

I can remember a few years ago looking ahead to 2009 and thinking Penn State was going to be absolutely loaded on the defensive line. But a funny thing happened between then and now. Phil Taylor and Chris Baker were dismissed from the team. Maurice Evans and Aaron Maybin decided to go pro early. Josh Gaines had the audacity to graduate. And JoePa decided to throw Abe Koroma in the doghouse for a year and throw away the key.

Normally this kind of attrition would be devastating to any average defense. But I'm not worried, and I don't have the sense Nittany Lion fans are worried either. That's because we know that no matter how bad things get with dismissals and injuries, as long as we have Larry Johnson Sr. everything will be okay on the defensive line.

Of course nobody is worried about Jared Odrick, a first team All-BIg Ten selection a year ago who probably could have entered the NFL draft and done quite well for himself last spring. And we know his defensive tackle counterpart Ollie Ogbu is a proven commodity who I think is poised for a breakout season in 2009. With Devon Still, Chima Okoli, and Brandon Ware to back these guys up there's plenty of talent and depth to work with at the defensive tackle position.

But then nobody I read mentionsthe defensive tackles as a concern. The defensive ends are a different story. Penn State has to replace their top three guys on the outside this year. Maybin, Evans, and Gaines accounted for 19 sacks and 31.5 TFL. That's a lot of production to replace, but if there's one area Penn State has proven it can reload, it's on the defensive line.

Jack Crawford is Larry Johnson's latest project this summer. Standing an imposing six-foot-five and 256 lbs. with tremendous explosiveness due to years of playing basketball in England, Crawford has drawn comparisons to Aaron Maybin. I'll go one better than that. I'll go out on a limb and say Crawford will be better than Maybin before it's all said and done. Maybin, as good as he was, was really a one dimensional player. He was an outside pass rushing specialist, but he wasn't really that great against the running game, and he never really developed a bull rush due to the fact he couldn't put on weight. Crawford has explosiveness, but he also has the size Maybin could never obtain which I think will make him an even more dominant player.

On the other side it's going to be interesting to watch Johnson work his magic. It looks like Jerome Hayes is penciled in as the starter at weak side defensive end after two reconstructive knee surgeries in the past two years. It has me a bit concerned that he's our best option, but if he can show the same speed he did before his injuries he'll be a force to wreckon with coming off the edge on third and long.

He'll have to platoon with Kevion Latham on the weak side. Latham saw considerable action last year as a redshirt freshman. He reminds me a lot of Josh Gaines in his physique and his motor. This will be his third year under Johnson's tutelage, so I expect him to be a solid player.

A Response From Sports Illustrated On Big 12 Football Selections

ccmachine — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 16:30:05 -0000

As posted last week, I had sent an email to Sports Illustrated about their college football preview issue in which Oklahoma State made the cover and Texas is picked ahead of OU in the Big 12 South. In response to that I received an offer to put my email in a Q&A format and send it to one of the writers. Senior writer and Big 12 correspondent Phil Taylor is the person it landed with and he was gracious enough to take the time to shed a little insight on the Big 12 selections for us.

CC Machine: I’m curious to know the logic behind picking Texas ahead of OU. Is it an X’s & O’s decision or was it based on sympathy from the Horns not making the Big 12 Championship game last year? If you wouldn’t mind, I’d like to ask you a few questions on the issue.

Phil Taylor: It's hard to give you a precise reason for ranking Texas ahead of Oklahoma, or for a one-spot difference between any two teams, because our rankings are based on the opinions of several writers and editors who are involved in our college football coverage. It's not a formal process in which we tabulate votes, it's an informal one in which we take everyone's opinions and arrive at a general consensus. With Texas #2 and Oklahoma #3, we obviously consider them to be very, very close on paper. If we had decided to flip the two teams, I doubt that anyone on our panel would have objected strongly. That's how close they appear, as evidenced by the fact that if you look at other preseason magazines, you'll see that some of them went Oklahoma/Texas and some went Texas/Oklahoma. It's almost a coin flip. One thing I can tell you is that our decision wasn't based on sympathy for Texas over last season. We stay away from that kind of bias.

CC Machine: While the Sooners are replacing four offensive linemen the Longhorns are replacing three defensive linemen. Games are won and lost in the trenches but this looks a bit like a wash to me. What are the criteria for giving an advantage one way or the other up front?

Phil Taylor: We considered Texas a little bit better equipped to withstand their heavy losses on the DL largely because of the presence of Sergio Kindle, who was a stud last year and seems ready to be a stud again this year. He would seem to be a real anchor for that unit. Oklahoma seems a little more unsettled, with their only returning OL starter switching positions. I'd also say that Coach Stoops' comments about his OL concerns had some influence here. Some of that may have been a motivational ploy, but it would be hard for us to conclude that the Sooners are fine on the offensive line when Stoops hasn't exactly raved about the unit.

CC Machine: Both schools have great quarterbacks but OU also has the best tight end in the nation and the last I checked Texas doesn’t have a tight end to speak of. OU is returning two 1,000 yard rushers at running back and Texas is very much unproven at running back. Even with a new offensive line OU has returning starters at every skill position who are homerun threats - Ryan Broyles (WR), DeMarco Murray (RB), Jermaine Gresham (TE). Texas can’t boast that but does four out of five returning linemen make up for it?

Phil Taylor: Here's how I'd summarize the situation: Two outstanding quarterbacks, with McCoy, at least at this point, able to expect better protection than Bradford because of the Longhorns' experienced offensive line. Bradford has more quality backs and receivers to work with, and you're right, Gresham is terrific, but the cupboard isn't exactly empty for the Longhorns, with a solid go-to guy like Jordan Shipley. Overall, you could definitely make the argument that the Sooners have a slight edge, but again, it's a close call. Would a QB rather have top-notch backs and receivers and an inexperienced offensive line? Or a solid line and inexperienced backs and receivers? I'd rather have the line, but others may disagree.

CC Machine: In addition to the three new defensive linemen Texas is also replacing two linebackers and one of their starting corners. Are they being deemed a championship caliber defense based on the reputation of defensive coordinator Will Muschamp or have they earned it on their own merit?

Phil Taylor: Muschamp's reputation has little to do with it. Our assessments are based on what we've seen returning players do on the field, and what we think we can expect of newcomers, which are of course educated guesses based on our own observations and the information we've gotten about players from various sources -- including coaches and local media members who are around the teams on a regular basis.

CC Machine: I realize that mostly I see the Big 12 World through crimson and cream glasses which sometimes taints my judgment but other than a non-conference schedule that would make Bill Snyder chuckle, I don’t think Texas has much else in their favor as far as a national championship run goes. This is even proven by SI’s All-American Team in which only one Longhorn is mentioned and he’s in the wrong position. Sergio Kindle is a defensive end now but SI has him as an All-American linebacker. How does that happen?

Phil Taylor: As far as Kindle goes, the indications we have are that he'll be moved around some. He may play primarily defensive end but it won't be unusual to see him with outside linebacker responsibilities at times. In order to fit what we felt were the most deserving players on the All-America team, we put Kindle at OLB. We don't think that's inaccurate.

CC Machine: To be honest, both Oklahoma and Texas have a lot to prove before anyone can pencil them in to the BCS Championship game but I would like to know, for the record, the logic behind picking Texas.

Phil Taylor: Again, the bottom line is that the two teams both have lots of strengths and a few question marks. We simply gave Texas the advantage by a hair, for the reasons I mentioned above, but I wouldn't argue with anyone who gave the edge to the Sooners. If we had ranked Oklahoma ahead of Texas, I'm sure we'd be getting similar questions from Longhorn supporters. I think an unbiased observer would say Oklahoma and Texas should both be in the national championship picture this season, and a strong case can be made for either one.

Bevo's Daily Roundup - The season has arrived

dimecoverage — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 20:12:38 -0000

27 days until the Louisiana-Monroe game

Texas quarterback Colt McCoy talks about why he returned for his senior year and his expectations for the Longhorns in 2009. From ESPN.

Think Oklahoma-Texas is a heated rivalry? Wait until October. Texas' players may have forgotten about losing the South Division to OU on last year's tiebreaker, but I don't think Texas coach Mack Brown has. Neither has OU's Bob Stoops. "You want to throw out our win over Tech?" he said. "Fine. Then throw out Texas' win over us."

From DenverPost.com

Video and interviews from practice.

Some questions to anwser in preseason camp. Some of the most important have to with the defense. Will Muschamp is gearing up for his second year at UT with a lot riding on his unit's success.

Can the defense play to a level that would make Colt McCoy proud? Will Muschamp be twice as good, now that the head coach-designate more than doubled his salary to $900,000 a year? Will a defensive back intercept a ball or two? Can the defense stay multiple, get the most speed on the field and maintain a physical toughness?

Texas won 12 games a year ago, but its defense overshadowed its offense probably only four times, if you consider great performances against Colorado, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Ohio State in the bowl game.

What was Mack Brown's advice to the Longhorns as they start practice for the season?

"I told our kids in the spring and I told them again tonight to forget the system ... forget any of it," Brown said. "They need to be the best team they can be. Let's enjoy being Texas and not sit around and answer questions and worry about the system all the time."

"The Big 12's tiebreaker won't change, short term for sure, and the BCS won't change for at least a year," Brown said. "You've got what you've got so quit worrying about. You play the best you can play and we'll go wherever they tell us."

The Horns are not planning too far ahead.

Texas fans always demand a lot from Brown and the Longhorns, but there hasn’t been this kind of buzz around Austin since 2005, when Vince Young and the Longhorns won the school’s first undisputed national title since 1969.

"You walk in the locker room, nobody’s talking ‘Let’s win the national championship,"’ McCoy said. "All (the players) are talking about is winning the first game."

And if the Longhorns win all their games, they know they’ll get their shot, just as they did in 2005.

The USA Today Preseason Coaches' Poll is out. We came in at No. 2 behind Florida. (ESPN video)

Does it matter where you start in the poll?

But see Florida, Texas and Oklahoma sitting 1-2-3 in the USA TODAY coaches' preseason poll released Friday — and Boise State, TCU and Utah ranked a more modest 16-17-18 — and take it seriously. In a sport that settles its national championship, in part, by popular vote and not by a playoff, early positioning matters.

All too much, some coaches say.

"We've been ranked among the Top Five in the coaches preseason poll several times recently and that's rewarding because it shows respect for our program from coaches around the country," head coach Mack Brown said. "It also is a tribute to how strong we’ve finished in winning our last five bowl games. But, at this point, no one has earned the right to be in the upper part of the polls. I’ve always said I think we should start the polls in October like they do with the BCS Standings. That’s a much truer evaluation of a team because at that point you’ve proven it on the field.

"All of that said, Coach Royal told me a long time ago that preseason polls are like beauty contests, and if they're going to enter you, you want to be near the top. We’re proud of everything we've built and the hard work our guys are putting in, but also realize that the preseason ranking means nothing. We need to be sure the guys understand that where you finish at the end of the year is important; where you rank at the first of the year is simply respect."

From Mack Brown Texas Football

The top three teams have the top three quarterbacks in the country.

This fall could be exceptional for several reasons — three, in fact. "It's a wonderful thing for those three to be the face of college football," Texas coach Mack Brown says.

"They're all three high-character guys," Florida coach Urban Meyer says. "College football needs that."

McCoy doesn't mind being the leading rusher... again.

"I don't mind running the football," said McCoy, who was the only Big 12 quarterback to lead his team in rushing. "I would love it if we had a back who stepped up and said they wanted the ball and said to feed me the ball. The guys back there are motivated and are really trying to be effective in our offense."

What's our biggest need this season? Besides the whole running game issue? Tight end.

Coach Mack Brown said one of his primary goals is to find "two or three" tight ends who can be viable receiving options and allow the offense more flexibility than last season, when the Longhorns leaned heavily on four-receiver sets (with no tight end) after Irby was injured in a Sept. 20 victory over Rice. The ground game, Brown said, became more inconsistent without a tight end in the mix.

"Trying to run the ball with four receivers is a lot different than having a 250-pound tight end who can pound on people," Brown said.

There are no "wildcat" formations in our future.

Despite plays from the single wing becoming the rage in college football and in the NFL during the last several years, Mack Brown does not expect the Longhorns to experiment with the "Wildcat" formation.

Brown also pronounced that the Longhorns' ballyhooed "Q package" as dead. That formation featured Colt McCoy and John Chiles in the lineup at the same time with Chiles occasionally receiving snaps from center and McCoy at wide receiver.

"We got into it some last year," Brown said. "It was not productive for us. We want the ball in Colt's hands."

Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley have been named to the 2009 Walter Camp Football Foundation Player of the Year award watch list.

Sergio KIndle's leadership was apparent at Woodrow Wilson HIgh Schhol in Dallas. His leadership and play could determine the Horns' defensive success this season. KIndle has also been named to the 2009 Ted Hendricks Award watch list.

"Sergio emerged as a strong, forceful leader," Woodrow Wilson coach Bobby Estes said. "I notice that same maturity this year at Texas. Before, there was Brian Orakpo and the other guys in front of him. In talking to [Kindle] and watching him go through drills this spring, he's returned to, 'This is my year. This is my time.' "

Texas can only hope Kindle's college career tracks the same as his prep career.

How Kindle plays and how he leads could partly determine whether Texas' BCS hopes were merely deferred by the Big 12 tiebreaker of a season ago. One tick of a clock in Lubbock separated Texas from the conference title game and a probable date against Florida for the national championship.

The Los Angeles Times believes that the Horns are the most motivated team to win the title this year.

Which team is most motivated to win the national title this year?

That's easy. Texas. Imagine what it was like for the Longhorns to watch Oklahoma, a team they beat in Dallas, play Florida for the BCS title. And all because of a Big 12 tiebreaker rule that broke a three-way tie among Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech in Oklahoma's favor. That's why the 2008 Big 12 title team from Norman will always be remembered in Austin as the Oklahoma Asterisks.

Mack Brown will not be voting in the USA Today coaches' poll this season.

"They selected six coaches from the Big 12 at random, and I wasn't one of the ones selected," Brown said. "I'm OK with it."

In 2008, the Big 12 had seven coaches voting in the poll, which counts as one-third of the BCS standings.

And, for the record, Oklahoma's Bob Stoops is voting this season. Stoops did not vote in 2008.

Did Sporting News forgot someone in their 50 greatest head coaches of all time?

Charlie Tanner reports from training camp.

You may not recognize some of the players this August. Some of the team decided that they wouldn't shave during camp.

SI's Andy Staples expects Aggie true freshman Christine Michael to have a big impact on the season.

The Aggies averaged just 2.9 yards a carry last season thanks mostly to an offensive line ravaged by injuries. Texas A&M boasts a pair of quality backs in Cyrus Gray and Bradley Stephens, but the 5-11, 200-pound Michael possesses the strength to break tackles and the speed to break away for scores. Expect him to get a chance to earn carries in camp.

Aggie punter Ken Wood decided to attend A&M after hearing about the 12th Man lawsuit against the Seattle Seahawks.

Texas A&M's flap with the Seattle Seahawks over the "12th Man" trademark keeps paying dividends for the Aggies.

Three years ago following a lawsuit filed by A&M, the Seahawks agreed to pay the Aggies a licensing fee to continue using the term, which A&M had trademarked.

Now, it appears the commotion helped land the Aggies their potential starting punter. Sophomore Ken Wood, a Washington state native who punted for the University of Montana last season, first became aware of A&M through the 12th Man ruckus.

Wood describes himself as a big Seahawks fan — and he became a fan of A&M after learning more about the school and its 12th Man tradition through its Web site, aggieathletics.com.

"I was constantly visiting their Web site," Wood said Thursday. "It looked like an awesome place — even just on the computer screen."

So, what happens if A&M is successful this season?

Defensive lineman Paul Freeney and tight end Ben Bass are no longer on the Aggie football team.

Oklahoma State

Finding a second receiver for Zac Robinson is critical for the Cowboys.

Dez Bryant's importance to the Cowboys was best illustrated in their 42-31 Holiday Bowl loss to Oregon as he produced seven receptions in the first quarter and nine in the first half to help spark an early Cowboys lead.

But after Bryant sustained a knee injury, the Cowboys' offense sputtered. Oregon outscored OSU 35-14 in the second half en route to the comeback victory.

It's made finding a second wide receiver one of coach Mike Gundy's critical tasks during fall camp.

Defensive coordinator Bill Young has five goals for the Cowboy defense. Mike Gundy has his own list.

Gundy wants his receivers to stop thinking.

The Oklahoma State receiving corps has been dropping the ball more than head coach Mike Gundy would like to see in the first few days of fall practice. But Gundy isn’t worried, because he knows it’s an issue caused by too much thinking, not a lack of ability.

"It looks like it always has this time of year," Gundy said of his receivers’ early drops in practice. "There’s a lot of thought and thinking going on. They’ll start playing better in 10 or 15 days. We never encourage the ball being on the ground, but the reason it is is because they’re thinking so much."

Oklahoma

The Sooners are back in Norman. Bob Stoops is very optimistic.

"Hopefully we can be a game or two better (than last season)," said Stoops, whose club made it all the way to the national title game in 2008. "You have to go earn all of that, you have to get back with your team, get back out on the field and start competing and working to see truly where you are.

"We have a chance to be every bit as good or hopefully maybe a little better."

Did you know Stoops has a sense of humor?

Jermaine Gresham came back for one reason and one reason only:

"Anything less than a national championship would be (a disappointment)," Gresham said. "That's what we work for and play for. Nobody on this team plays for individual awards — nobody. We play as one and the ultimate goal is to win every game."

Sooner injury reports. DeMarco Murray is hurt. Again. Linebacker Ryan Reynolds is back and he is healthy. For now.

But one of the many bright spots was the return to the field of senior linebacker Ryan Reynolds, who wore only a brace in his first practice back since suffering a third major knee injury midway through last season.

And Ryan Reynolds felt he needed some luck so he changed his number from 11 to 4.

Linebacker Austin Box is making progress.

Austin Box drew praise from Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops during the Sooners’ Media Day Friday.

The redshirt sophomore linebacker is coming back from an elbow injury which kept him out of spring practice.

"He looked great,’’ said Stoops of Box’s effort in OU’s first practice Thursday. "He was running well and his conditioning was good.’’

NewsOk has a Q&A with DeMarcus Granger. Granger now calls himself the Comeback Kid, because of the injuries and adversity he has dealt with. Most of his own making.

Offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson is a little fed up with all those pesky questions about the offensive line.

It was apparent that Wilson has about had it up to his chinstrap with those critics who have zeroed in on OU's inexperienced offensive line as being the only glaring weakness on a team ranked No. 3 in the first USA Today Coaches Poll.

"It's documented that everybody is concerned about our line," Wilson said. "I'm not ... at all."

ESPN analyst Andre Ware isn't sold on Bardford's front line just yet.

During Thursday's edition of College Football Live, ESPN analyst and former Heisman winner Andre Ware made a bold, if not bizarre, prediction.

The Oklahoma Sooners, ranked No. 3 in the preseason and returning the Heisman winner at quarterback, would lose four games this season, including the opener to Brigham Young.

His rationale?

OU's inexperienced and unproven offensive line.

Need an introduction to the Sooner o-line? Notice how many Texans there are?

Sam Bradford is impressive. He is just a really nice guy.

Bradford, meanwhile, sat for two hours in a chair under a shade tent, wearing his crimson No. 14 jersey and flip-flops, signing autographs, posing for snapshot and just saying hi.

One young fan across the ropes in line for the tight ends got near Gresham, then shouted, "Hey, Sam Bradford!" Bradford looked up from signing a football, peered between shoulders and made eye contact. The boy smiled and waved. Bradford waved back and smiled. The boy jerked his little brother into a better perspective through forest of bodies and said, "See? See? He waved at me!"

Guess who else was left off Sporting News' list of the 50 all-time best coaches?

Sooner Sports has an update on Corey Wilson.

Four Big 12 teams make the USA Today Preseason Coaches' Poll.

Texas was ranked No. 2 by the coaches and defending Big 12 champion Oklahoma was third. Oklahoma State was ranked No. 11 and preseason North Division media favorite Nebraska was picked by the coaches at No. 22.

Kansas was just on the outside at No. 26, 27 points behind No. 25 Oregon State.

Everyone still seems to think the conference is lopsided, definitely heavier in the South.

"I think what we have is two top programs who are playing at a high level year in and year out," said Kansas coach Mark Mangino. "And there are people like us at Kansas who aspire to be in their shoes."

And that can only make everyone better, the coaches will tell you.

The South

You can never tell what a bear will do.

Those Bears are confident. Safety Jeremy Williams has some ideas about the season: Baylor will play in a bowl game this season.

Baylor strong safety Jeremy Williams isn’t in the prediction business. Then again, maybe he is.

Asked if he felt comfortable guaranteeing a specific number of wins for the Bears this season, Williams at first was hesitant. Then, he blurted out:

"I’m not going to give you any guarantees or any predictions. I just know we’re going to play hard every week and we’re going to win more games than we did last year and we will go bowling this year."

Good news, everyone. Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin is just as fast, plus he is bigger and stronger than ever before. And, no, he is not the least bit concerned about his offensive line.

"I trust those guys," Griffin said. "I know if they make a mistake in one game or one play, they'll recover and make up for it on the next. It's not a problem like I'll be looking over my shoulder on every play to check and see somebody is coming."

The two new tackles will be the Bears' biggest offensive question marks and perhaps the biggest determining factor in whether Baylor can break a 15-season bowl drought that ranks as the longest in the conference.

You can't miss the Bear o-line. They have mohawks.

Baylor transfer Terrance Ganaway's memory of his mother keeps him going.

He’ll remember the love and support she gave him as he became a star running back at DeKalb, a small town near Texarkana. He’ll live out the lessons Charlor taught him, especially the ones dealing with hard work and sacrifice.

When she died last summer after a battle with kidney cancer, it floored him.

But after taking a year off from football, Ganaway wants to honor his mother.

"I know that if it wasn’t for my mother, I wouldn’t be at Baylor right now," Ganaway said. "She is what keeps me motivated. She was the backbone of our family. I looked to her for guidance and wisdom and my spiritual needs. She was a great woman."

Whatever 6-4, 355-pound Baylor defensive tackle Phil Taylor wants, he gets.

The Red Raiders are determined to have another successful season.

“We do have a lot to prove,’’ new quarterback Taylor Potts acknowledged. “A lot of people are saying that we’re not going to be very good; we lost too many good players; we lost certain key players that we can’t replace.

“But I don’t think that’s the case, and I don’t think anybody else out here thinks that’s the case. Everybody has a sense of urgency, and everybody’s really positive and thinks we can do this thing.’’

Another product of the system? Mike Leach really likes freshman quarterback Jacob Karam.

Of all the quarterbacks who have ever got in line to play quarterback for Leach, Karam might have the most kid-in-a-candy-store demeanor, the most high-strung personality. He channels it well, well enough last year to lead his Class 4A Friendswood High School team to the state semifinals. Austin-based recruiting analyst Randy Rodgers, a former Division I coach, said Karam was one of the best at leading a two-minute drill in crunch time.

At 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds, Karam might be a little short for an ideal quarterback, but what the heck. He figures he can make up for it by acting tall to the guys in his huddle.

Ryan Erxleben, son of former Longhorn Russell Erxleben, is a walk-on kicker for Tech.

The North

Bo Pelini is popular in Nebraska.

But progress is important, and Nebraska showed enough of that in Pelini's first season to keep the enterprising T-shirt folks in business:
"Bo knows Nebraska," "reBOrn," and presumably for the women, "Bo-licious."

What does Nebraska's defense have to do this season to improve? What about special teams?

Just call Cornhusker workouts Camp Confident.

"They're excited and ready to go," second-year coach Bo Pelini said after the season's first workout. "I sense that they feel like they have something to prove. I think we do have something to prove."

Tight end Mike McNeill described the Huskers as a confident team.

"We're just a little more sure of ourselves," he said. "Last year, I think we had a little bit of doubt."

But the Cornhuskers are trying to keep the expectations in check.

Players, feeling stronger and refreshed after a summer's worth of weight exercises and pad-less drills, are showering in optimism — because all teams, no matter last year's outcomes, are undefeated in August.

It's the coach's job to provide the reality check, to keep the upbeat players from developing a sense of complacency as they absorb all the offseason's positive vibes.

Bo Pelini's been doing that since the Gator Bowl, as the program's expectation levels have heightened along the way.

There is a new era in Missouri football: The Blaine Gabbert era.

But when it comes to the sophomore, Yost and others are ready for comparisons to the program's all-time leading passer to be set aside.

"He's not going to be the next Chase Daniel," Yost said. "He's going to be the first Blaine Gabbert."

Coming off a 2-10 season, Iowa State needs improvement from both the defense and the offense. But the offense is key to the win.

"We're going to control and dictate the tempo, and you're certainly going to see us go fast at times," Herman said of his version of the spread offense that doesn't include a huddle. "When we feel like we've got our foot on (the opponent's) throat, we're going to go for the kill.

"The advantages are, obviously, the fact that defenses can't substitute (against the no-huddle). We want to wear those defensive players down as much as we can, so in the third and fourth quarter when we're in better condition and those big 310-pound defensive tackles are sucking wind and trying to tap out and get off the field, we're on the ball and ready to play."

Herman promises you'll see four-wide formations, and quarterback Austen Arnaud - tabbed the starter heading into fall workouts - will spend his Saturday afternoons in the shotgun, something the junior from Ames says he relishes. But Arnaud also knows much of the burden will fall on his shoulders.

The Cyclones are starting with the basics during practice this year: tackling.

ESPN"s Tim Griffin expects some good things from Kansas State this year.

Snyder's coaching acumen will enable KSU to claim a victory or two that some might not expect this season. The Wildcats are expected by most to struggle to stay out of the North Division basement. I think they'll be better than that, coming close to qualifying for a bowl berth and sneaking in an upset from one of three late-season home games -- against Missouri, Colorado or Kansas. If they can win two of those games, the Wildcats might go bowling this season.

The only certainty for the Wildcats is uncertainty. One of the decisions Bill Snyder will have to make is the starting quarterback. Carson Coffman does not have a lock on the job just yet.

Kansas State may a duel passing/running threat in Daniel Thomas.

Coach Bill Snyder calls Thomas, a junior transfer who wears No. 8, a running back. Thomas, 6 feet 2 and 227 pounds, played quarterback at Northwest Mississippi Community College. He can run and throw well enough to present a threat for the Wildcats as a surprise weapon.

"He can do a lot of damage with that," receiver Lamark Brown said. "He has the running-back style, and he’s a quarterback. Either way, it gives us a chance to do some special things."

The Jayhawk's defense had issues last season. This year should be different.

As tacklers go in the Big 12, the Jayhawks were middle-of-the-road last season. Which is to say they got flattened way too often.

Any opportunity for the Jayhawks to contend in the North is based on the return of primary playmakers within each skill group of the offense. But to cash in on a title run, the defense must stiffen.

"I think we'll have a chance to have a pretty good offense, no question about that," said KU coach Mark Mangino, who enters his eighth season coming off back-to-back bowl victories. "But I think our defense will be better than a lot of folks outside of our program think."

Kansas receiver Dezmon Briscoe has been cleared to practice.

Colorado running back Darrell Scott bulked up for the season.

There's a Buff camaraderie that just hasn't been there before.

The SEC may be buying into the spread offense.

The marketplace, needless to say, has changed. Florida has won two national championships in the past three seasons and it led the SEC in scoring and total offense last season. Pages on the spread offense are now incorporated into playbooks all around the conference.
Spread offense hysteria has not completely replaced the rugged culture of the SEC, as it has in the Big 12. Most SEC teams still use a tight end, a fullback and massive tackles to open holes for a 215-pound running back. But there have been adjustments, including fewer tight ends and fullbacks on rosters, and smaller, quicker defensive backs who can stick with receivers better in the open field.