SB Nation - Matt Shaughnessy

Top 5 Mid Major - Big Ten Games of 2009: #3 Wisconsin v. Northern Illinois

grahamfiller10 — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

In partnership with Mid-Major Madness (MMM), SBN's haven for non-BCS coverage, we present to you the top five match-ups between Big Ten and Mid-Major football teams. At number three comes Saturday's showdown between Wisconsin and Northern Illinois.

Make sure to go back and submit your picks for the Obligatory Predictions Contest. Every weekly winner gets the right to write 500 words on the site about college football. NEW this year is our season long competition - win the whole damn thing and we send you something amazing.

The favored Badgers have played musical chairs with their starters, while Northern Illinois will comes out inexperienced but featuring a star quarterback. Can the Big Ten's 3rd best program of the last 10 years make a run this year? Will Student Body Sweep Right crush the Huskies?

Hype

MMM: When Jerry Kill took over the NIU football program after the 2007 season it looked as if he was going to have to spend at least a few seasons rebuilding the team. After the Huskies finished with an abysmal 2-10 record in 2007, Kill’s team made surprising progress in 2008 with a .500 regular season winning percentage and an invitation to the Independence Bowl. Kill looks to continue with his rebuilding efforts as he enters his 2nd year as head coach of the Huskies.

However, 2009 might be a bit more difficult as he loses 20 seniors from last years roster including the MAC MVP and the 16th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, Larry English. Along with English, the Huskies lost 5 receivers that accounted for 83% of the teams catches. The team will need someone from the incoming freshman class to step up and become a playmaker.

With such a young and inexperienced team it will be very difficult to go into Madison, one of college footballs biggest stages, and come out with the victory against the Badgers.

TRE: What in the world happened in Madison? The entire state will be watching the Badger's backfield, as heralded RB John Clay has been passed on the depth chart by Zach Brown and preseason starting QB Dustin Sherer has been replaced by Scott Tolzien and frosh Curt Phillips. Clay will play big minutes, but the concept is clear - Coach Bielema is winning at all costs and doesn't give a damn if that means changing leaders one week before the season.

Countdown Games

#5 - Wisconsin v. Fresno State

#4 - Purdue v. Northern Illinois

Key Matchup

Huskies Red Zone Offense vs. Badgers Defense

MMM: In 2008, the Huskies seemed to always have found a way to screw up every possession in which they were within the coveted boundaries of the Red Zone. Quarterback Chandler Harnish failed in attempt after attempt, causing Kill to rely on his kicker Mike Salerno to put points on the board. Kill has worked to address the issue during camp and feels confident in his QB, although they still lack the go-to guy that they can rely on to put 6 points on the board.

Harnish is unquestionably their best shot at an X-factor , with the quick feet necessary to pick up yardage on the ground. A lot of Harnish’s struggles in 2008 was due to his inexperience, but this year he really needs to show the coaching staff that he can step up and make the big plays and what better way to do so than against then against a Big Ten powerhouse. With such a young supporting cast it will be very interesting to see if Harnish has what it takes to put points on the board and take some stress off Salerno.

TRE: It looks like MMM has been doing his research. The Huskies run game has been potent for years and matches up extremely well with Wisconsin's depleted defensive line. The Badgers lost DE's Mike Newkirk and Matt Shaughnessy to graduation, making it their most vulnerable defensive position. If Northern Illinois makes it inside the 20, they should pound the rock with quarterback runs (Harnish is almost 220 lbs) and draws to smallish playmaker Me'Co Brown.

Significance

MMM: As mentioned earlier, this is NIU head coach Jerry Kill’s second season and although he did a tremendous job at turning the team around in 2008, he needs to prove that last year wasn’t just some aberration. Last year he had a team with a mix of not only the players he recruited, but also the players that signed on to play under former head coach Joe Novak. Now that Kill has 24 of his own recruits coming in can really showcase his coaching ability. There is no question that they will be a very young and inexperienced team but they are talented nonetheless.

Kill will be in the spotlight week one against the Badgers in easily one of NIU’s biggest games of the season. If the Huskies can go in and steal the win, it will not only start the season off on the right track but also show NIU boosters and fans that Kill is the real deal.

TRE: The Wisconsin preseason preview is littered with cliches. Bielema is always on the " hot seat" and every OOC game is a "must win." But much of the time, cliches exist to wipe out the need for long, complicated explanations. And in Madison, these overused cliches might ring true. The Wisconsin "system," which consists of a strong run game, hard-hitting defense, and the ability to draw other teams into slugfests, didn't work so well last year. Bielema can take steps to prove '08 was an aberration with a thumping of the Huskies.

Predictions

MMM: The Badgers face another quarterback decision coming into the 2009 season. It seems that the past three years the Badgers have face the same issue over and over again, which is probably the main reason behind their mediocre play. Regardless, the Badgers have veteran players that the Huskies seem to lack. The youthfulness of the Huskies will be a major issue and will most definitely lead to careless turnovers and blown coverages. Wisconsin 31, Northern Illinois 17.

TRE: Preparation is the keyword for the Badgers. They were caught unprepared against numerous opponents (Cal Poly, Florida State, Iowa) in 2008. Bielema has had the entire off-season to put together some kind of gameplan and one has to believe he'll have the Badgers jacked up for Redemption Year '09. Right? Wisconsin 34, Northern Illinois 20.

Hill blames troubles on offensive line, not on two DUIs

Adam Hoge — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 18:02:53 -0000

"I've only had like two teams looking at me, but I'll be fine; I consider myself a playmaker. Wisconsin struggled on our offensive line, but I made the most of every opportunity. I know I'll do that in the NFL."

- P.J. Hill in a NY Daily News story from Tues., April 21, 2009

In a somewhat surprising weekend, four former UW football players were drafted Sunday in the third round of the NFL Draft and none were selected the rest of the day. That left eight former players as undrafted free agents, two of those being P.J. Hill and Jonathan Casillas, both of whom were projected as late-round picks.

But the story right now continues to be Hill's fall from grace. The star running back who surprisingly left school a year early to pursue a professional football career has racked up two DUIs since he declared for the draft and exactly zero interest from any of the 32 NFL teams.

And apparently it's his former offensive line's fault, not his poor decision making skills or the DUIs, which certainly go hand-in-hand. In a New York Daily news story from last Tuesday, Hill was quoted saying: "Wisconsin struggled on our offensive line, but I made the most of every opportunity. I know I'll do that in the NFL."

Right, so having Joe Thomas (already an NFL Pro Bowler) your freshman year must have been a bad thing. Having the emergence of Gabe Carimi filling in for Thomas the last two seasons must have been a bad thing. Playing three seasons at a school known for having huge offensive lines must have been a bad thing.

Those five guys on the line are the only reason why Hill was once compared to Ron Dayne. They are the only reason why Hill, an injury prone baby, was able to stay healthy as long as he did. They are the only reason Hill even had a chance to be drafted in New York this past weekend. And unless I missed something, they had absolutely nothing to do with Hill getting two DUIs, the second of which involved him eluding police after getting pulled over.

So cheers to the 32 teams from the NFL for making the wise decision of not drafting a kid who once was full of promise, but is now in a downward spiral not only in his football life, but in his life in general.

Now, on to the kids who might actually make an NFL roster:

Matt Shaughnessy (DE/OLB, 6-5, 266) - Drafted by Oakland in the third round with the 71st overall pick. The Raiders can always use help on defense so Shaughnessy could see playing time.

DeAndre Levy (OLB, 6-2, 236) - Drafted by Detroit in the third round with the 76th overall pick. Levy's stock rose late and seeing as how the Lions didn't win a game last season, he should be in the mix right away.

Kraig Urbik (OG, 6-5, 328) - Drafted by Pittsburgh in the third round with the 79th overall pick. The Steelers have already indicated that they might try Urbik at center. They like his versatility and are willing to give him a shot anywhere on the line.

Travis Beckum (TE/WR, 6-3, 243) - Drafted by the New York Giants with the last pick in the third round (100th overall). With Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer gone, the Giants need guys who can catch the football. This is a good situation for Beckum.

Chris Pressley (FB, 5-11, 255) - Signed with Cincinnati as an undrafted free agent. The Bengals like The Prez a lot but he will have to work hard to make the team because they re-signed Jeremi Johnson and drafted another fullback in the seventh round.

Andy Kemp (OG, 6-5, 313) - Signed with Minnesota as an undrafted free agent. It was somewhat surprising that Kemp went undrafted so he'll have an opportunity to make the team in Minnesota.

Jonathan Casillas (OLB, 6-1, 228) - Signed with New Orleans as an undrafted free agent. The Saints will probably keep Casillas at linebacker.

Bill Rentmeester (FB, 5-11, 247) - Signed with San Diego as an undrafted free agent.

Dave Peck (LS, 6-4, 245) - The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is reporting Peck has a workout scheduled with Chicago.

Jason Chapman (DT, 6-2, 281) - Remains unsigned.

Mike Newkirk (DT, 6-1, 285) - Remains unsigned.

Poll

Which former Badger will have the longest NFL career?

Matt Shaughnessy - Oakland

8 votes

Kraig Urbik - Pittsburgh

74 votes

DeAndre Levy - Detroit

22 votes

Travis Beckum - NY Giants

40 votes

144 votes | Poll has closed

Badgers in the NFL Draft: Where will they go?

Adam Hoge — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 18:24:38 -0000

It will probably be a quiet day for former UW football players looking to get drafted this weekend as most of them will be selected in the third round or later, which won't happen until Sunday.

But there as many as 12 outgoing Badgers hoping to find NFL teams this weekend and B5Q predicts where those players will get drafted:

3rd Round

Travis Beckum (TE/WR, 6-3, 243) - The further he falls, the more he'll regret not coming out after his junior season.

Kraig Urbik (OG, 6-5, 328) - Arguably the Badgers' best pro prospect.

4th Round

Matt Shaughnessy (DE/OLB, 6-5, 266) - If he gets drafted into a 3-4 defense, he'll have to move to linebacker.

5th Round

Jonathan Casillas (OLB, 6-1, 228) - Injuries and DUIs have held Casillas back, but scouts still seem to love his talent.

DeAndre Levy (OLB, 6-2, 236) - Scouts love Levy's potential.

Andy Kemp (OG, 6-5, 313) - Will be drafted solely on size.

7th Round

P.J. Hill (RB, 5-10, 222) - Advice to any mediocre draft prospects who want to enter the draft early: DON'T GET TWO DUIs WHILE TRYING TO IMPRESS DRAFT SCOUTS! Hill will be lucky to get drafted.

Free Agents (In order of chances of being signed)

Chris Pressley (FB, 5-11, 255) - Hard worker and solid blocker. Has the will to make an NFL roster.

Jason Chapman (DT, 6-2, 281) - Injuries have really hurt his NFL chances.

Mike Newkirk (DT, 6-1, 285) - Probably too small to make it in the league.

Dave Peck (LS, 6-4, 245) - Good long snappers can be very valuable.

Bill Rentmeester (FB, 5-11, 247) - Brings a little speed to the table.

Be sure to join us on Twitter to get updates during the NFL Draft.

Poll

Which former Badger will get drafted first?

Travis Beckum - TE/WR

11 votes

Jonathan Casillas - OLB

3 votes

DeAndre Levy - OLB

2 votes

Matt Shaughnessy - DE/OLB

10 votes

Kraig Urbik - G

6 votes

32 votes | Poll has closed

Arizona Cardinals Potential Draft Picks: 3-4 Outside Linebackers

Hawkwind — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 18:42:29 -0000

It's no secret that the Arizona Cardinals will look to add some youth and athleticism at their outside linebacker position. The current group of Chike Okeafor, Clark Haggans, Bertrand Berry and Travis LaBoy are serviceable but age and injuries are getting the best of them. We've spent a great deal of time profiling some 'hybrid' outside backers in the past month or so, but what if none of the highly rated prospects are available when the Cardinals pick at 31 or 63?

The Cardinals are fortunate enough to have the current depth to allow a draft pick to ease into the transition from college DE to professional OLB and there are plenty of guys who should be avaliable in the middle to later rounds. Here's a look at some prospects who the Cardinals could be interested in during the second day....

Here are the guys that we've already profiled:

But as you might expect, that's just a small sampling of possible 'hybrid' guys that could entice the Cardinals this weekend.

Paul Kruger (6'4, 263): Believe it or not, Kruger is a polarizing figure in this year's draft. Some scouts compare him to LaMarr Woodley or Aaron Kampman (who's expected to move to OLB this year), while other scouts simply don't think he has the athleticism to handle an outside linebacker spot. It's clear that he'd be an awful big OLB and his workout numbers (4.8 forty) haven't helped his case among 3-4 teams. He'll be a 24 year old rookie, one red shirt season and two years on a church mission, but his ability to battle is unquestioned. Projected Round: late 2nd to middle 3rd

Compares to: Aaron Kampman (Green Bay)

Pros - He's got solid frame that still has room to grow, if need be, and he's a decent athlete. His non-stop motor is what sustains him and he's very tough with above average strength. He does well in pursuit and is a reliable tackler. He's comfortable in space and he's a smart player who won't often get fooled by play action or misdirection. He's got some experience playing with his hand off the ground and has looked capable in coverage.

Cons - Kruger's isn't a natural athlete and looks stiff at times. He lacks top end speed and doesn't always play as powerful as his frame would indicate, especially when he plays too tall. His pass rush repertoire is very limited and he too often relies on a bull rush that worked in the Mountain West but might not generate the same results against NFL tackles. A lack of experience is also a concern considering that he only played two years at Utah.

Jason Williams (6'1, 241): Williams is one of the fastest risers in the entire draft right now after blazing the forty at his pro day to the tune of 4.46. Some teams didn't trust the time after hearing that he ran on a basketball surface so Williams responded by running again. The second time he ran on field turf and blazed even more when he turned in a 4.42. Wiliams began his college career as a strong safety before moving to OLB in 2006. Just about every NFL team has kicked the tires on Williams, regardless of defense, but he's certainly showing the athletic ability to excel in a 3-4. In his three seasons as an OLB he averaged 89 tackles, 15 for loss and five sacks per season. Projected Round: middle 3rd to 4th

Compares to: James Harrison (Pittsburgh)

Pros - His athleticism and speed are unmatched as well as his burst off of the line. He's an explosive leaper who will knock down passes at the line and he has a knack for jarring the ball loose (14 career). His experience as a strong safety makes him very comfortable in coverage and he's got the range make plays sideline to sideline. He's got a good motor and will make plays in pursuit.

Cons - His level of competition has some tempering his potential and right now he still plays like a safety against the run. He'll have to get stronger and more physical at the point of attack to be an every down player. He can get out of position when he gets to aggressive as well.

Brandon Williams (6'5 252): Williams comes off a junior season that saw him lead the Big 12 in sacks and earn 1st Team All-Big 12 honors, but most scouts feel that he should have stayed for his senior season. While there is no argument about his ability to rush the passer, his detractors point out that he offers very little against the run (but in the Big 12 what do you expect?). His draft stock took a significant hit at the combine when he ran a 4.96 forty (a 306 pound OT ran faster), but he's since improved his time at his pro day with times as high as 4.69. There's no doubt that he's a raw player who will take some time to develop but the potential is evident. Projected Round: late 3rd to 4th

Compares to: Alex Brown (Chicago)

Pros - Williams' lanky, athletic frame is has the room to add another ten to fifteen pounds with sapping his burst or speed. He's got a tremendous burst off the snap and has a decent set of pass rush moves. He has shown the ability to bend around offensive tackles and close on the quarterback. He tracks down plays in pursuit and chases plays down the line.

Cons - For everything Williams does in getting to the quarterback, he lacks the size, strength and physicality to hold the point of attack against the run. He hasn't been asked to drop into coverage much and looks stiff in space. He's also not a powerful tackler and struggles to disengage from blockers.

Zack Follett (6'2 238): Follet should be an interesting prospect for just about every 3-4 defense in the league for a couple of reasons. He's played every linebacker position after coming to California as a middle linebacker before finally ending up on the outside. He also flourished in his senior season when Cal switched to a 3-4 defense which means he's got more experience than just about every other backer in the draft. He has a history of shoulder problems and won't wow scouts with his athletic feats but he's been solid locker room guy and he's been productive where ever he lined up. He totaled 87 tackles, 23 for loss and 10.5 sacks in 2008 after averaging 63 tackles, 12.5 for loss and 5.5 sacks his previous two seasons.

Compares to: Larry Izzo (Jets)

Pros - Follett has very good strength for his size and his frame has the room add another ten to fifteen pounds. He can hold the point of attack where he's a reliable, punishing tackler. He plays with a reckless abandon when the play is in front of him and his competitive spirit drives him to make plays. He's an intimidating player who is a plus pass rusher who is also capable in coverage.

Cons - His size isn't what you'd expect from an outside backer and he's not a great athlete. He has some durability issues and his aggressiveness can get him into trouble. His lateral quickness isn't great and he doesn't have the ability make up ground when fooled.

Matt Shaughnessy (6'5 263): The report on Shaughnessy is pretty similar to Paul Kruger, except that Shaughnessy isn't very stout at the point of attack. He's a bit faster than Kruger, but not by much, and scouts go both ways on his ability to stand up and play outside linebacker. He's added over 30 pounds since showing up to Wisconsin as a 230 pound freshman so his frame is nearly maxed out but he carries it pretty well. He hasn't been as productive, in terms of sacks, as most of the guys on this (15.5 in 50 career games) but he's tough player who's played through a ton of injuries. One thing that's rather remarkable is that he's missed very little time despite several major injuries including broken fibula in the spring of '08 and tearing his ACL at the end of the 2006 season. Projected Round: late 4th to 5th

Compares to: John Engelberger (Denver)

Pros - Shaughnessy has the size and bulk to play the position and uses his height well to knock passes down. He uses his hands well to disengage from blockers and stave off cut blocks. He uses the bull rush and rip technique well as pass rush moves but the rest of his repertoire is pretty limited. He has some experience playing from a stand-up position and looks comfortable in space. He's a smart player who uses a non-stop motor and good instincts to make plays.

Cons - Shaughnessy lacks the explosive burst off the snap that outside backers need to make a difference in pass rush situations. He also needs to get stronger to hold the point of attack and he'll have to develop more pass rush moves to be effective. Injuries might have robbed him of the explosiveness that he had earlier in his career as he takes a while to get up to speed.

Henry Melton (6'4, 269): Melton was first brought up here at ROTB when he appeared in a mock draft created by one of our very own and he's an interesting yet extremely developmental prospect. He began his college career as a running back and has only been on the defensive side of the ball two seasons. As you might expect being a former running back, Melton has tons of athletic ability but is far from a finished product. He wasn't even considered a 'draftable' prospect after one season as a starter that produced 10.5 tackles for loss and four sacks but a forty in the 4.5 range changed all of that. Wherever Melton ends up, patience will be key as he'll take a year or two to learn the position but the athletic ability is unquestioned. Projected Round: late 5th to 6th

Pros - With loads of athletic ability, Melton's speed, quickness and burst make him unique. He's got good balance and agility and is a force in pursuit. He's got more strength that you'd expect from a former running back and he could be a solid special teamer early in his career.

Cons - Raw, raw, raw. Melton got by on his athletic ability during his one season as a starter and his techniques and instincts have to come a long way before he can step on an NFL field. He also has an off the field incident when he was arrested for DWI in May of 2007.

Stryker Sulak (6'5, 251): Sulak's an accomplished player with four years of starting experience and he even thought about going pro after this junior. He's improved each year as at Missouri but most scouts still slap the overachiever label on him
and wonder if he'll have the ability to hold his own in space. He's dealt with some injuries during his four seasons but in 53 games he's still managed 38 tackles for loss and 22.5 sacks, including 15.5 & 10.5 respectively his senior year. Projected Round: 7th

Pros - Sulak's a decent athlete with slightly above average speed and quickness but he makes a difference with his non-stop motor and burst to close on the ball carrier. He's got good instincts and awareness and is a hard worker.

Cons - Sulak's not going to blow anyone away with his athletic ability and he'll have to get stronger to maintain the point of attack. He hasn't been asked to drop into coverage very often but he looks uncomfortable and stiff in space.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

The Arizona Cardinals enter this weekend's draft looking for at least one, if not multiple players to help energize their struggling pass rush. In a 3-4 defense, they'll need that pass rush to come from their outside linebackers. While most of these guys won't contribute much in 2009 outside of special teams, they're stacked with potential to be the future of the Arizona Cardinals. Which guy stands out to you guys? Are there any names that we missed?

Scouting report: Matt Shaughnessy

Mocking Dan — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 13:00:13 -0000

Matt Shaughnessy

6'5, 260 pounds | Wisconsin | Defensive end

Strengths: With Shaughnessy, a team will get a player who can be versatile. He played defensive end in college and could stay there in the pros if he gets bigger. If not, he could be a pass rush specialist. That is thanks in large part to his plus burst off the snap and solid recognition skills to understand where a play is going to develop. A smart player who understands his assignments well. Doesn't bit on play action and knows when to stay home.

Weaknesses: Shaughnessy has some trouble getting off the line because he doesn't have enough strength and is easily overpowered. Even tight ends give him trouble, which could mean he'll be best as a rush specialist. Lacks agility and is not a fluid player. While he's quick off the snap, Shaughnessy loses a step when he has to change direction. Has a long injury history.

Final word: At the beginning of his senior season, Shaughnessy was very highly thought of, but had a down senior year. Followed up 18.5 tackles for loss in 2007 with just eight in 2008. Shaughnessy has played on the left and right side on the line and has stood up in 3-4 sets. That versatility is Shaughnessy's best asset. If he's picked by a 4-3 team, he might have to bulk up and strictly play the run. Suffered a broken fibula in spring 2008. Tore an ACL at the end of the 2006 season. Missed part of his freshman year due to a knee injury.

Round projection: 5

Opinions on the Cowboys Draft

Jim Vance — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 21:36:24 -0000

You know what they say about opinions...well, you know, everybody has one and the other guy's stinks!

I love the draft. My wife thinks I must be mentally deficient to watch the draft on TV. She thinks it's boring. HA, this from a woman who has watched Moonstruck about 20 times.

You gamble your fortune and reputation on a college kid in the draft. He may be blessed with the physical skills of Achilles, but his heel may be a weak brain or weak character. The NFL Draft on television was the first American Idol, Mel Kiper the first Simon Cowell.

The challenge is: pick the right guy, at the right position, at the right time. Pray that he's durable, smart and dedicated.

I went online at random and looked up mock drafts that went to the second round, just to see if there were any consensus picks for the Cowboys at 51. Here are the results...

Player	Position	College
Dorell Scott	DT	Clemson
Alphonso Smith	CB	Wake Forest
Patrick Chung	SS	Oregon
Michael Hamlin	S	Clemson
Emanuel Cook	SS	South Carolina
Sean Smith	CB/S	Utah
Juaquin Iglesias	WR	Oklahoma
Michael Hamlin	S	Clemson
Matt Shaughnessy	DT	Wisconsin
Emanuel Cook	SS	South Carolina

We have Emanuel Cook from South Carolina and Michael Hamlin from from Clemson in a run-off. My take from this unscientific sampling:

90% felt our primary need was defense.

70% thought our primary need was in the defensive backfield.

50% thought Safety was a primary need.

20% thought our primary need was along the D-line

Patrick Chung is the only name I recognize from some of the comments made on this site and I would be delighted to get him. The other names are just the opinions of other fans in regards to who would be the right player for the right position at the right time for the Cowboys and you know what they say about opinions.

The Champs Sports Bowl Preview: Wisconsin Badgers at your Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 06:51:11 -0000

The football coverage has been sparse around these parts lately. I hope this preview will more than make up for the lack of substantive football coverage. Even though I think there are far more important things going on with this team than the game, I haven't forgotten about the actual game being played this Saturday.

Quickreads

TV: 4:30 PM ESPN-- Brad Nessler (play-by-play), Bob Griese (Analyst), Paul Maguire (Analyst), Holly Rowe (Sideline).
Sun Sports Replay at 7:00 PM on Sunday and Monday at 12:00 PM

Radio: ISP Sports Network - Gene Deckerhoff (play-by-play) and William Floyd (color)

FSU has never played Wisconsin.

Game Day Forecast

Partly Cloudy

HighLow

81° F 62° F

Precip: 10%

I'll take weather like that.

Inside:

The Conversation, with Tommy of CampLambeau.blogspot.com
I breakdown our defense against the Badger Offense and dispel a myth the lazy media has been promoting.
Go inside Wisconsin's defensive scheme to figure out how we will put points on the badgers
In Extra Points, I go through all the leftovers and predict a winner.

Other Media

The Big10 blog thinks we could give Wisconsin some trouble. Chantrant has covered this game for weeks, so scroll through. All of the ESPN folks think FSU will win (Except Kirk Herbstreit).

The Conversation

My questions appear in bold.

How do Wisconsin fans feel about their showdown with Florida State? On the one hand, they had high expectations for this season and are now playing in Florida, before new years day, for a fourth? year in a row. On the other hand, they do get the chance to give some credence to the big 10.

Well, two years ago the Badgers went 12-1, including a Jan. 1 victory over Auburn in the Capital One Bowl, so it hasn't been all December bowls, but it has been a lot of Florida bowls. Wisconsin would like to play in Pasadena every year, but if that doesn't happen, the fans just want the best bowl against the best team.

In this regard, a game against FSU is a nice consolation prize to a disappointing season for the Badgers. FSU, although not as powerful as it was in the 90s, still presents a marquee matchup for many fans, including myself. After seeing College Gameday broadcasted from Tallahassee so many times, and after all the great players that have come from that program, it will be a lot of fun to see our Red&White uni's taking the field against the Seminoles. Another factor for the knowledgeable fans is that Wisconsin has started recruiting the southwestern part of Florida heavily in recent years, so a win against FSU in Florida, would be a big boost to our recruiting efforts.

On the flip side, Badger fan confidence is at one of the lowest points in memory since we were wining 3 Rose Bowls in the 90s. The Badgers suffered some bad losses this year, most notably to a terrible Michigan team, and with a winning season on the line in the final game, got outplayed by Cal-Poly and were lucky to get a win. Previous Badger teams were well-prepared and played sound fundamental ball for four quarters. This Badgers team has had lapses all over the field, and has driven fans nuts. So I think fans are excited about the game, but wary of our prospects.

What has Wisconsin done well this year?

Boy, it's not a good sign when you have to think long and hard about how to answer this. Unlike years past, you cannot easily point to one aspect of the game that the Badgers have excelled at. Looking back, I think the best thing the team did was coalesce around a QB change in the middle of the year and fight back to end the regular season at 7-5. Lesser teams may have folded the tent and embarrassed themselves, but despite the many struggles, the team never turned on each other and was able to right the ship. Another bright spot has been the play of #32, John Clay. One of the most highly touted prep skill position players to come out of Wisconsin in years, Clay is a redshirt freshman and he runs like an angry wild animal. Secondary defenders are not excited to tackle him. Ohio State had no answer for him, and most Badgers fans are convinced that UW would have won a close games against OSU and MSU if we had given this kid the rock more often.

What aspects of this team never developed?

The passing game to our TEs, a major strength in previous seasons, was hindered by injuries at the position, including the injury to pre-season All-American Travis Beckhum. This forced the QBs to find WRs, and the Badgers are weak at that position. The passing game floundered and the starting QB gave way to the backup. Another problem for the Badgers this year has been game management by the coaching staff. The Badgers have been a bad second half team on defense, and in our close games, bad at clock and time-out management. This has probably been the most frustrating thing for Badger fans to watch.

I pointed out that Wisconsin will be the lightest front 7 FSU faces this year in this piece:

The WI defense has stayed in base 4-3 almost all year. Unless you spread us out, we are very happy to play in the base 4-3. In fact, our defense has played pretty well against teams who think they can run against our base defense. Mobile quarterbacks are what gives us problems. (BTW, what was going on in the Miami game? 144 yards for Ponder?) The Badgers do not blitz very well, and have had trouble tackling in the secondary. (There are lots of reasons we are 7-5!) So I expect that we will try to keep the game-plan simple and try to keep our guys playing fast and aggressive. I think the defense will try to limit big plays, and keep the game close, unless the coaches have noticed something about FSU on tape, which is doubtful.

On a side note, watch out for Mr. Jay Valai coming in for the kill shots, he has been blasting people since he was inserted into the lineup, and he is hometown boys with your starting QB, so he is definitely amped up about the game.

(This link shows one of his 7 or so serious hits he has delivered. Feel free to add hyperlink under kill shots:

Jay Valai destroys Gopher RB (via packman2436)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4K0SjBR-kI)

I asked them some fun questions...

I would say our favorite type of cheese is beer.

I would also say that our favorite type of sunscreen in sunburn.

Lastly, you mentioned Peter Warrick in regards to the Heisman trophy in 2000. First, I'd like to mention that I loved watching Peter Warrick play, and have no grudge against him. Second, I think its pretty clear that Ron Dayne got the career achievement Heisman as opposed to the single season Heisman. However, I want your readers to know that the NCAA does not give Dayne the proper credit he deserves. They quote his record setting career rushing total as 6,397, but that's because they don't include his bowl stats, even though they do include it for modern players. Dayne actually rushed for 7,125 total. He's one of 5 players to rush for 1,000 yards in all four years, and he is tied with Ricky WIlliams and Marcus Allen for most 200-yard rushing games. Lastly, he holds the all-time record for rushing TDs in BigTen conference, a conference that is really really old and has been focused on running the ball and stopping the run for almost its entire history.

A big thanks to CampLambeau for working with us on short notice.

What did he ask me?

B. Bowden was quoted in our newspapers saying that there is the National Championship game and if you're not in that, then all of the other bowls are all about the same. Do FSU fans feel the same way?

Is Wisconsin on your radar as a legit football program? Does the school have any name recognition among FSU fans?

Wisconsin runs a pro-style offense and often uses 2 TEs and a fullback. Have you encountered these power formations this year? How have you fared? Is your defense better suited to defending big pro-sets, or the spread option type offenses?

Fun Questions:

Wisconsin has been recruiting Florida actively in recent years, has FSU ever recruited a Wisconsin player? If not, why not? Too much academic eligibility from our high school students?

How many "head-coach in waiting" candidates to replace Bowden have their been? Are there any former potential Bowden replacements who are already retired?

Our head coach has an Iowa Hawkeye tattoo on his calf from his playing days. Bobby Bowden played at Alabama. Does he have an elephant tattoo anywhere? If not, you're ahead of us there....

My answers... at CampLambeau

Florida State struggles against huge offensive lines singleback shotgun based offenses with option elements.

This has annoyed me for at least the last two weeks. I really enjoy Andrew Carter and Steve Ellis, but some of the other Nole sites have spouted that FSU struggles against huge offensive lines. It would be nice if they did a bit of research on this subject. Lucky for TomahawkNation readers, I did do the research. I believed that FSU struggled against not huge offensive lines, but rather teams with gun-based offenses who run singeback as their primary alignment, and teams that run a lot of option. Why would I think this? Mostly because I've seen teams adapt their offense to counteract the schemes of Mickey Andrews and other legendary defensive coordinators of the 90's.

So, what teams run these offenses? NC State (with Russell Wilson and the zone read), Boston College (who ran that zone-read give out of the gun 20+ times), and UF. Georgia Tech Runs majority option, so I Included them as well. The results?

Against majority Pro-Style Offenses:

	Points	Total Off.			Rushing				Passing
Opponent		Plays	Yds	Per Play	No	Net	YPC	TFL's	Att	Comp	Yds	TD	Int	Sacks	Dropbacks/ Sacks	QB Rating
Wake Forest(3-12)	12	68	276	4.1	38	59	1.6	9	30	17	217	0	0	2	16.0	117
Colorado(39-21)	21	73	278	3.8	37	124	3.4	10	36	17	154	3	1	4	10.0	105
Miami (Fla.)(41-39)	30	63	256	4.1	14	51	3.6	6	49	21	205	1	3	2	25.5	72
Virginia Tech(30-20)	20	56	243	4.3	34	82	2.4	10	22	12	161	1	0	6	4.7	137
Clemson(41-27)	27	71	316	4.5	36	79	2.2	14	35	20	237	2	1	6	6.8	127.17
Maryland(37-3)	3	60	252	4.2	29	103	3.6	10	31	16	149	0	2	6	6.2	79
Per Game	19	65	270	4.1	31	83	2.6	10	34	17	187	1.2	1.2	4.3	8.8	100

These numbers are excellent. 4.1 yards allowed per play is very good considering that these 6 games came against BCS competition, as I removed the two games against 1-AA competition. Note that we allowed only 2.6 yards per rush. If you don't think these numbers are impressive, just wait till you see the difference between our defense against a pro-style attack (like Wisconsin) and the Gun attack with a single back and a mobile QB, complete with option elements.... Wait Over

Singleback, Option based schemes:

		Total Off.			Rushing				Passing
Opponent		Plays	Yds	Per Play	No	Net	YPC	TFL's	Att	Comp	Yds	TD	Int	Sacks	Dropbacks/ Sacks	QB Rating
North Carolina St.(26-17)	17	47	338	7.2	21	157	7.5	4	25	13	181	2	0	1	26	139.22
Georgia Tech(28-31)	31	51	343	6.7	44	288	6.5	2	6	4	55	0	1	0	NONE	110.33
Boston College(17-27)	20	74	357	4.8	46	176	3.8	13	27	14	181	1	1	1	28	113
Florida(15-45)	45	68	502	7.4	46	317	6.9	8	22	12	185	3	0	1	23	170
Per Game:	28	60	385	6.4	39	235	6.0	6.8	20	11	151	1.5	0.5	0.8	28	138

That's quite the difference. Every single category got significantly worse. Also note that removing UF's numbers don't significantly reduce the categories. I was shocked at just how well NC State's offense played. Clearly, our Offense won that game by holding the ball for a long time.

For those who want the clear comparison in table form, you are in luck...

		Total Off.			Rushing				Passing
Opponent		Plays	Yds	Per Play	No	Net	YPC	TFL's	Att	Comp	Yds	TD	Int	Sacks	Dropbacks/ Sacks	QB Rating
Against Pro-Style	19	65	270	4.1	31	83	2.6	10	34	17	187	1.2	1.2	4.3	8.8	100
Against SBGUNOPTION	28	60	385	6.4	39	235	6.0	7	20	11	151	1.5	0.5	0.8	28	138

Yeah... we get destroyed by anyone with an ounce of talent the the motivation to run this sort of scheme. The Noles own pro-style attacks. Oh, and one more thing: The biggest offensive lines we've faced? Miami and VTech.

So, why do we struggle against this? Basically, we run a very aggressive one-gap man scheme. This offense makes our defense hesitate just enough to get blocked, and because of the single gap responsibility, once one gap is blown... the whole scheme can be blown.

As for Wisconsin's scheme, they run a very simple pro-style offense. They often use two TE's. A huge percentage of their offense is run from the I-Formation. If I were them, I would try to substitute another offensive tackle. They have two very big backs. PJ Hill is 235lbs and better known, but Jon Clay is a much more talented player. Their receivers are nothing special. None would make FSU's roster, will be drafted, or are serious Arena League prospects. They had a stud tight end, but he broke his leg and won't be playing. Their number two tight end is pretty good, but is also coming off an injury and should be rusty. Their quarterback is not especially mobile, but he's not terrible. Their offensive line lacks that elite NFL talent they've had in years past. Personnel wise, their offense reminds me a lot of Boston College, with a worse quarterback and better running backs. They are vastly different than BC in scheme, however, and that's why the Noles will shut them down.

The Relevant rankings?

UW 58th in Offensive Efficiency (Nationally, opponent adjusted)
FSU: 18th in Defensive Efficiency
UW: 3rd most efficient rushing offense in the Big 10 (Big 10 games only)
FSU: 8th in rushing defense efficiency in the ACC (ACC games only-- though slightly skewed by 3 teams not playing GTech)
UW: 7th most efficient passing offense in Big10 (B10 games only)
FSU: 2nd best passing defense efficiency in the ACC (ACC games only)

FSU knows how to stop an I-Formation rushing attack. They match up very well with Wisconsin. Don't automatically accept what some of these media members tell you. This "speed against size" matchup is a convenient storyline, but it is incorrect.

Wisconsin will have 34 rushes for 135 yards (including sacks) and 31 throws for 170 yards. FSU will throw 8 or 9 in the box and Wisconsin won't be able to force them out of it. FSU destroys this type of offense and I've seen nothing from the Badgers to make me think the Noles will have to hesitate in the slightest. I expect them to throw 17 offensive points on the board.

Florida State will run on Wisconsin.

Last week I took a look at the size of the defensive front 7's the Noles have faced this year.

Boston College 1918lbs, 23 rushes, 82 yards.
Wake 1838lbs, 27 rushes for 103 yards.
Florida 1835lbs, 29 rushes for 137
Miami 1785lbs, 54 rushes, 281 yards.
Georgia Tech 1772lbs (I think they were lighter because of major injuries, correct?). 31 rushes, 228 yards.
Virginia Tech 1766lbs, 34 rushes, 123 yards.
Clemson 1760lbs, 34 rushes, 281 yards
NC State 1757lbs, 42 rushes, 162 yards
Maryland 1755lbs, 41 rushes, 172 yards
Colorado 1755lbs, 45 rushes, 259 yards

You should really read that piece to get the full effect.

Wisconsin's front 7 weighs 1710lbs, by far the smallest we have faced this season. This bodes very well for the Seminoles. Wait, didn't the media constantly say that Wisconsin was huge?? Why didn't they actually take five seconds to look? Nice journalism, guys.

So, which option will Wisky choose?:

If Wisconsin plays 8 in the box and doesn't account for Reed: Bubble (Like Miami, NC State for a bit, and MD did some)

If Wisconsin plays 8 in the box and does account for reed: Deep Jumb balls (like Va Tech forced us to do)

If Wisconsin plays honest defense, stays in 2-deep coverage: run all day (like everyone else.)

Obviously I am making a prediction here, but it is an educated prediction.

wisconsin really does not want to throw 8 or 9 in the box. Look at this clip. Iowa runs a zone scheme like we do. They do not have playmakers on the outside, yet Wisconsin sat in two-deep for much of this game, content to let Iowa reach their blockers quite easily:

Shonn Greene for Heisman (via Hawkeyeshawn1234)

Watching this film, it is pretty clear that Wisconsin has consistently decided to man-up on the receivers and provide help over the top. Against 3WR looks, they play 6 in the box. Against I-formations 2WR, they tend to play 7 in the box. Only after getting destroyed do they bring their safety into the box.

Personally, I think this is dumb. Their strong safety is a glorified linebacker and he should play in the box or get off the field.

Wisconsin has a good defensive end in Matt Shaughnessy, but he has been an underachiever, relative to his talent based expectations. The rest of their front 7 is pretty poor. It got worse when they found out their best linebacker would miss this game with Knee surgery. Their linebackers are very undisciplined and they don't have the quickness to recover.

I expect Wisconsin to continue to choose option three. This is great for the Noles. We will run all day.

You MUST be able to play passable run defense with 7 men to stop the Noles. Wisconsin can't do that.

With Preston Parker and Taiwan Easterling hobbled, expect FSU to use a lot of Carr, Surrency, and Reed. Owens could also get some run. FSU will take whatever Wisconsin gives them, and that is just fine. If FSU plays patient, focused football, they should score a touchdown on every drive.

The relevant ranks:

FSU ranked 22nd in Offensive Efficiency (Nationally). Wisconsin played one offense ranked ahead of the Noles (Penn State)
Wisconsin ranked 35th in Defensive Efficiency (Nationally). FSU played defenses ranked better than Wisconsin: Boston College, Wake Forest, UF, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Clemson.
FSU had the best rushing efficiency offense in the ACC
Wisconsin had the 2nd worst rushing defense in the Big 10. These guys simply cannot stop the run.
FSU had the 6th best passing offense in the ACC (this goes along with what I've said all along: We can't pass pro at all and usually only threw when we had our run game shut down by elite defenses)
Wisconsin had the 4th best pass defense in the Big 10.

Yeah... this looks good for the Noles. I also think we should take the ball instead of deferring.

I think we will rush 45 times (including sacks), for 240 yards. They are undisciplined, slow, and undersized. We'll Throw 27 times for 181 yards. Thats 421 yards of offense, and I think that translates into 35 points.