SB Nation - Blake Szymanski

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:15:23 -0000

As we enter the second game of what Gary Pinkel is calling Mizzou's second season, let's take a look at where Art Briles' Baylor Bears present a threat, and where they've been hurt worst by the loss of Robert Griffin to a season-ending knee injury.

It was supposed to be different this year. Thanks to Hot Tub Griffin III, Baylor was going to threaten for a bowl game. They were actually exciting to watch for once, and Hot Tub was Rock M Nation's unanimous favorite non-Mizzou player.

Okay, you twisted my arm...one last time this season...

One last moment of silence, please. The knee injury that robbed Baylor (and us) of nine games of Hot Tub greatness* has left Baylor lifeless on offense, and despite an increase in overall team speed on offense and a relatively salty defense, the Bears sit at 3-5, 0-4 in the Big 12. Their best chance at a Big 12 win--a trip to Iowa State--ended with an easy, 14-point loss. We have all died a little inside without Hot Tub in our lives...and Baylor has died on the outside.

* Just for effect, I should once again point out that Griffin PLAYED THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN STATE GAME (well, all of the game that the first-string played) with a torn ACL suffered on the first possession, attempted three rushes, and went 16-for-19 passing with 226 yards and three touchdowns. With a torn ACL. God I love that guy.

Alright, now that we're past that, it's time to look at the team Baylor does have, and the amount of threat that they represent for Mizzou at 1pm on Faurot Field.

Offense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

We're going to start with Baylor's overall "+" ranking, presented as we've presented data for every opponent, but this comes with a rather obvious disclaimer: Baylor's last five games without Griffin have shown a different type of team than the one that made up a chunk of these ratings. We'll take a look at Baylor, pre- and post-Griffin injury, after the initial spew of data.

Baylor Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	BU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.7 (40)	111.7 (35)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	104.7 (53)	104.8 (45)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	129.7 (29)	122.4 (33)

Rushing S&P+	133.2 (5)	102.7 (63)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (73)	118.3 (30)

Standard Downs S&P+	114.6 (33)	112.5 (35)
Passing Downs S&P+	123.6 (35)	115.0 (36)

Red Zone S&P+	128.6 (22)	104.4 (61)

Q1 S&P+	136.2 (15)	95.5 (77)
Q2 S&P+	106.0 (63)	135.8 (12)
Q3 S&P+	124.5 (26)	112.2 (41)
Q4 S&P+	105.4 (55)	115.8 (34)

1st Down S&P+	122.2 (20)	108.0 (49)
2nd Down S&P+	127.0 (22)	112.3 (41)
3rd Down S&P+	101.1 (74)	113.8 (38)

Line Yards+	105.9 (52)	101.6 (61)
Close Sack Rate+	95.7 (73)	93.3 (72)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	106.7 (57) / 108.3 (56)	101.9 (57) / 123.0 (37)

Analysis after the jump.

Now, let's look at the Baylor offense with and without Hot Tub III.

Baylor Offense: With & Without Griffin
Category	With Griffin	W/out Griffin
Close S&P+	120.3	89.1
Close SR+	111.1	92.2
Close PPP+	129.5	84.1

Rushing S&P+	169.5	74.0
Passing S&P+	89.0	94.3

Standard Downs S&P+	132.3	82.0
Passing Downs S&P+	79.8	113.4

Red Zone S&P+	150.7	102.8

Q1 S&P+	169.9	98.6
Q2 S&P+	77.1	96.4
Q3 S&P+	183.6	80.7
Q4 S&P+	87.6	96.7

First, it is worth noting that BU's actually a better passing team with Florence than with Griffin. That's not the biggest shocker in the world, but it does show that Florence is at least solid. And he's got a pretty deep WR corps (deep in that the #2 guy is about equal to the #6 guy) to work with, plus a nice, offensive-minded head coach. Also, for whatever reason, they're better in both Q2 and Q4 with Florence than they were with Griffin. You figure that one out, as I have no idea; of course, they are infinitely worse in Q1 and Q3, so usually the game is lost by the time Q4 (or even Q2) comes about, it appears. Mizzou might do Baylor some favors, as they are usually not particularly great in Q1, but it appears that Q3 is death for the Bears (strange, considering BU outscored Nebraska 10-0 in Q3 last week).

When Baylor Has the Ball...
Baylor Rushing	Advantage: Missouri
Baylor Passing	Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Baylor:	Q1
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2-Q4

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. Where applicable, I'll look at post-Griffin numbers.

Close Success Rate+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+ (though Passing Downs is close)
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st Down, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for Baylor...

Q1 S&P+
2nd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Without Griffin, Baylor has found the going a lot rougher in terms of utilizing their other weapons--WR Kendall Wright, RB Jay Finley, etc. They still have at least a decent offensive line, but that line will need to execute against Missouri's rapidly improving defensive line, and they will need to generate some early points, as Missouri assumes more and more of an advantage as the game wears on. And if Baylor gets handed any easy opportunities through turnovers or special teams, they simply must convert those opportunities into touchdowns.

Quarterback

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Nick Florence: 84-for-147 passing (57.1%), 942 yards (6.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT

So...any great nicknames for Nick Florence yet? He needs you now more than ever. Really, Florence hasn't been too bad passing the ball. He hasn't been great, but considering two of his four Big 12 starts have come against Oklahoma and Nebraska, two of the three best defenses in the conference (this week, they play the fourth-best, followed by the overall best next week against Texas), his numbers haven't been too bad. He is indeed just a redshirt freshman, and he was thrown into a no-win situation; granted he indeed has no wins, but he could be a lot worse. Let's just say that he's absolutely no worse than Blizzle Szyzzle, Blake Szymanski. No offense intended, Mr. Blizzle.

Running Back

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

Jay Finley: 42 carries, 261 yards (6.2 per carry), 2 TD; 4 receptions, 24 yards (6.0 per catch)
Jarred Salubi: 42 carries, 249 yards (5.9 per carry), 2 TD; 17 receptions, 134 yards (7.9 per catch)
Terrance Ganaway: 34 carries, 134 yards (3.9 per carry), 3 TD; 1 reception, 13 yards

Between Jay Finley and Jarred Salubi, Baylor has managed a pretty decent first-string RB this year. Unfortunately, most of their success came early in the season. Finley had 121 yards on eight carries against UConn, while Salubi had 131 in seven carries against Northwestern State. Since Griffin's injury, Finley has managed 49 yards in just 20 carries (2.5 per carry) while recovering from a sprained ankle and pulled quad, while Salubi has only been slightly better at 118 yards in 35 carries (3.4 per carry). Injuries haven't helped here, but the injury that hurt most of all was obviously Griffin's. Without the dual threat QB, teams are able to focus a lot more on the RBs.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Joining [Kendall] Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

WR Kendall Wright: 40 catches, 448 yards (11.2 per catch), 2 TD; 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3 per carry), 1 TD
WR David Gettis: 31 catches, 426 yards (13.7 per catch), 3 TD
WR Ernest Smith: 26 catches, 280 yards (10.8 per catch); 1 carry, 5 yards
WR Lanear Sampson: 15 catches, 130 yards (8.7 per catch), 1 TD

TE Justin Akers: 14 catches, 124 yards (8.9 per catch), 1 TD
TE Brad Taylor: 8 catches, 90 yards (11.2 per catch)

In Baylor's first game post-Griffin, Kendall Wright had 125 yards in nine catches against Kent State, suggesting there was life even with a dry hot tub. However, in the past four games he has managed only 16 catches for 134 yards and has scored zero touchdowns (of course, Baylor as a whole has scored only four, so that's not saying a lot). Justin Akers (against OSU) and David Gettis (against Nebraska) have stepped up recently, but until more than one weapon shows up for a given game, Baylor's whole aerial attack is grounded. Wow, I did not intend that weak pun there. C'est la vie.

Offensive Line

Now [Jason] Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

Looking at Baylor's Line Yardage and Sack Rates, you get the distinct impression that this isn't a particularly good or bad line. In fact, with rankings around 60th in all categories, you could say the line is actually perfectly average. Unfortunately for Baylor, Mizzou's defensive line has been improving significantly in conference play and is quite likely well above average right now, especially with Aldon Smith surging and a much less mobile quarterback looking for open receivers. This matchup has gone from a draw to a distinct Mizzou advantage in recent weeks.

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Defense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Baylor Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	BU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	100.0 (60)	106.2 (57)
Close Success Rate+	94.2 (84)	103.6 (58)
Close PPP+	109.0 (44)	112.8 (56)

Rushing S&P+	86.3 (98)	102.1 (67)
Passing S&P+	118.4 (29)	110.8 (51)

Standard Downs S&P+	99.5 (63)	105.0 (60)
Passing Downs S&P+	109.1 (47)	109.7 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	122.7 (32)	70.7 (114)

Q1 S&P+	89.0 (86)	117.9 (50)
Q2 S&P+	102.5 (63)	100.2 (73)
Q3 S&P+	109.8 (45)	111.9 (52)
Q4 S&P+	101.1 (61)	102.4 (65)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (58)	102.6 (66)
2nd Down S&P+	95.2 (75)	106.6 (64)
3rd Down S&P+	109.1 (50)	118.9 (38)

Line Yards+	87.1 (101)	101.3 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	89.9 (78)	173.9 (16)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	79.1 (93) / 115.6 (45)	243.4 (8) / 124.7 (41)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage(ish): Baylor
Best Time for Baylor:	Q2-Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q1, Q4

With Gabbert looking much, much healthier against Colorado, we can at least tentatively put an end to the "injured Gabbert" period. So, since we did the "pre-and-post" treatment for Baylor, should we do the same for Mizzou? We know that Mizzou's offensive stats plummeted with Gabbert's ankle sprain, but we also know that the defenses Mizzou faced at that time were much better. Luckily, we have "+" numbers to account for the difference in competition level! So here are the numbers for when Blaine Gabbert had one and two healthy ankles (the "one healthy ankle" stats are for the last three quarters of the Nebraska game and all of the Texas and OSU games):

Missouri Offense: Healthy vs Injured Gabbert
Category	Healthy #11	Injured #11
Close S&P+	107.1	94.3
Close SR+	101.2	95.3
Close PPP+	114.1	93.1

Rushing S&P+	85.4	117.1
Passing S&P+	119.3	81.6

Standard Downs S&P+	103.4	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	90.9	98.2

Red Zone S&P+	70.6	108.4

Q1 S&P+	93.7	116.3
Q2 S&P+	91.3	107.2
Q3 S&P+	108.2	31.5
Q4 S&P+	101.7	81.4

Mizzou was significantly better at both rushing and red zone offense when Gabbert was hurt, but I think there is a bit of noise in the statistics there. Mizzou got a lot of credit for the touchdown they scored on their lone red zone trip against Texas, and that balanced out their craptastic execution against OSU. Either way, that's a damn small sample size. Meanwhile, the rushing success didn't seem to have anything to do with Gabbert limping around--it was seemingly more a result of Missouri's offensive line simply blocking better (and, potentially, their running backs running better).

Either way, we're definitely working with a small sample size here, but there are some conclusions that can be reached: 1) while Missouri's second-half execution against Colorado left something (okay, a lot) to be desired, they are still a much, much better second-half team with a healthy Gabbert. It's almost as if Missouri was able to disguise Gabbert's injury with good game-planning, but by the second half, they were out of tricks. Now, with Gabbert throwing more accurate passes and pulling down a couple of keepers, Missouri has a lot more options. Also, and this is some incredible statistical analysis here, 2) Missouri is a much better passing team when their quarterback can actually hit his targets.

With that in mind, let's look at Missouri's "healthy Gabbert" advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+
Sack Rates+

Baylor's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2 S&P+

With a healthy Gabbert, the passing game seems to be a draw, as do Q3 and Q4 S&P+ and 1st Down S&P+.

Defensive Line

Beyond [Penn State transfer Phil] Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

DE/DT Jason Lamb: 21.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 2 Blocked Kicks
DT Trey Bryant: 15.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 3 QBH
DE Zac Scotton: 12.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Phil Taylor: 11.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 QBH, 2 Blocked Kicks
DE Tracy Robertson: 10.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 3 QBH

So...has vaunted transfer Phil Taylor actually made a difference? Baylor's pass defense has actually been pretty solid, but their rushing defense has been horrible. If Mizzou's offensive line was able to open up holes for Derrick Washington and company and protect Blaine Gabbert from Colorado pass rushers, there's nothing saying they won't be able to do the same (and better) against Baylor. Maybe Taylor really is a difference-maker, but the rest of the line has been just terrible? Jason Lamb, who has been playing at Baylor since Grant Teaff was coach, has put up some decent numbers--as good as those of Mizzou's Jaron Baston and Dominique Hamilton--but he's pretty much it. If he's not making a nice play, then Baylor's relying on the LBs.

Linebackers

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Joe Pawelek: 52.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 2 PBU
Antonio Jones: 47.0 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
Antonio Johnson: 41.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU
Chris Francis: 21.0 tackles
Elliot Coffey: 20.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Earl Patin: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

I really was pretty impressed with Joe Pawelek last year, but while he's been rock solid this year, it doesn't seem like he's been quite the playmaker I was expecting. He's still good, though, and the Two Antonios have combined with Pawelek to form what is certainly a decent unit. As I put it in the offseason, Baylor has struggled in certain areas (i.e. run defense), but they're not the reason why. And they're fast enough to do decent things in pass coverage.

Secondary

Jordan Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

S Jordan Lake: 48.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF
S Jeremy Williams: 25.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
CB Clifton Odom: 22.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 4 PBU
S Byron Landor: 22.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBU
CB Tim Atchison: 21.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 PBU
CB Chance Casey: 18.5 tackles, 2 INT, 1 QBH, 4 PBU
S Mike Hicks: 12.5 tackles

If Pawelek hasn't been quite what I thought this year, Jordan Lake REALLY hasn't been what I thought. He was a pretty strong, disruptive player in 2008; this year, he's just a tackler. One forced fumble, one tackle for loss, and no interceptions? Huh. In all, though, Baylor's pass defense really has been pretty decent this year; I mean, ranking 47th isn't amazing by any means, but with a sieve for a run defense, the secondary has been the least of their problems. Can you tell I haven't at all been impressed with their defensive line?

Special Teams

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Punt Returns Rank: 22nd (Krys Buerck: 12 Returns, 7.5 Avg)
Net Punting Rank: 89th (Derek Epperson: 45.2 Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 39th (Terrance Williams: 13 Returns, 26.0 Avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 44th

Field Goals: 4-for-8 (Long: 41) (113th)
PATs: 17-for-18

If the special teams play involves a Baylor player with the ball in his hands, running upfield, then Baylor's special teams unit is pretty solid. If it involves somebody in a Baylor uniform kicking...not so much. Derek Epperson ranks in the nation's top 20 in overall punt average, but their net average has been hurt by two blocked punts, and they're giving up almost 17 yards per return (with one touchdown). Ouch. And Ben Parks has been far from great as place-kicker. But hey, Krys Buerck and Terrance Williams are bright spots. That's something.

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Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over. With Blaine Gabbert's arm, I love the idea of going deep quite a few times, but with the advantages Missouri will have in other regards, Missouri really just needs to avoid Passing Downs disaster, and they should be alright. It's rare one of my keys is "stay relatively conservative and don't do anything stupid," but that does appear to be the case here. I like to surprise myself sometimes.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. (SPREAD DOESN'T WORK NEED FULLBACK RAWR!!!!! ET CETERA. Just thought I'd get that out of the way so that doesn't come up and I don't have to point out that Missouri's red zone offense has been just fine in the spread the last few years.) Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

Prediction

Clearly this is Missouri's game to lose. It is Baylor at home, after all. However, even without Robert Griffin, this Baylor team has more weapons and team speed than previous Bears iterations, and if Missouri lets them hang around, loses the turnover battle, gets some bad bounces, allows a big play or two, etc., Baylor can absolutely win this game. As long as Missouri plays average or better, they should move to 6-3 and bowl eligibility. The numbers say Mizzou by 16.5, so we'll say Mizzou 30, Baylor 13. Run the ball well, rip off a big play or two, don't commit any awful turnovers, and let Mizzou's defensive weapons--Sean Weatherspoon, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, etc.--make the plays they can make.

Under the Hood: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Baylor Bears Statistical Comparison

Jon Johnston — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 13:45:17 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Replace the Oklahoma uniforms with Nebraska's and we should see similar photos of Baylor freshman quarterback Nick Florence come next week.

Browse more photos »

First Iowa State, now Baylor. When you see them listed on the schedule, as a Husker fan you don't think twice about marking them down as easy wins. Last week's loss to Iowa State should have made it clear - there are no easy wins this season. Not with an offense that's sputtering as badly as the Huskers.

Before the season started, both Husker Mike and I pointed to the Baylor game as a potential loss on the road. I can't speak for Mike, but a lot of my reasoning had to do with Baylor phenom quarterback Robert Griffin. Griffin is an incredible athlete, but he was lost for the season after suffering a knee injury in a body bag game (if such a thing exists for Baylor) against Northwestern State.

If that weren't enough, Baylor senior backup quarterback Blake Szymanski suffered a shoulder injury in the same game. He aggravated the should injury last week against Oklahoma State, and if he can't go, the Bears will start freshman Nick Florence. Either way, Nebraska will face another backup quarterback, and as ESPN's Tim Griffin recently pointed out, we haven't exactly done well against backups.

Offensive Comparisons

	Nebraska	Baylor
Rush YPG	146.29 (61/6)	136.86 (77/9)
Rush YPC	4.63 (31/3)	4.78 (24/2)
Rush TDS	12 (50/8)	12 (50/8)

Pass YPG	235.1 (42/7)	223.7 (53/9)
Pass YPA	7.2 (54/7)	6.8 (77/10)
Pass TDS	12 (42/8)	9 (74/11)
Pass Efficiency	130.82 (56/7)	124.68 (73/10)

Total Offense	381.4 (58/8)	355.6 (75/11)

Defensive Comparisons

	Nebraska	Baylor
Rush YPG	100.86 (20/6)	184.43 (100/12)
Rush YPC	2.77 (11/3)	4.32 (86/12)
Rush TDS	5 (15/3)	11 (74/9)

Pass YPG	164.1 (13/1)	216.7 (63/4)
Pass YPA	5.5 (11/3)	6.2 (28/5)
Pass TDS	3 (2/1)	8 (30/4)

Total Defense	265.0 (7/3)	401.1 (91/11)
Scoring Defense	11.4 (4/2)	24.3 (66/10)

Opponent Positional Rank

Total Offense Rank	Nebraska Opponent	Total Defense Rank	Total Offense Rank	Baylor	Total Defense Rank
10	Florida Atlantic	113	59	Wake Forest	67
84	Arkansas State	42	53	Connecticut	37
60	@Virginia Tech	31	xx	Northwestern State	xx
83	UL-Lafayette	103	100	Kent State	61
62	@Missouri	52	29	Oklahoma	6
4	Texas Tech	73	55	Iowa State	83
55	Iowa State	83	30	Oklahoma State	56
51.14	Average	71	54.33	Average	51.67

Northwestern State is FCS, so they're not included in statistics.

- Nebraska clearly has an offensive edge over Baylor's defense. Given that, you'd expect that Nebraska's offense should be able to move the ball against the Bears.

- Alas the Huskers (and the fan base) have been snake bitten - if the offense is going to move the ball, clearly a playmaker or two must emerge. Had Niles Paul made it into the end zone, giving Nebraska 13 TDs through the air, they'd have risen to a tie for 35th in the nation instead of 42nd. Had Roy Helu and Dontrayevous Robinson not fumbled and made it to the end zone (for two more TDs), the Huskers would be tied at 32nd instead of 50th. Both would seem at the least a little more impressive.

- Nebraska's defense obviously has a stated edge against the Bears, as they will against every offense we'll see the rest of the regular season.

- Nebraska's yard per carry on the ground isn't as miserable as their rushing average. Does that mean we should be rushing the ball more? I would say yes - and it isn't just a feeling that Shawn Watson wants a passing game.

- Both teams are on losing streaks, with Nebraska having lost their last two to Texas Tech and Iowa State at home, while scoring only 17 points. The Bears have lost their last three at Oklahoma, at Iowa State and to Oklahoma State, while scoring a combined 24 points.

- Stating the obvious - this game will be won by the team whose offense sucks the least. Given how good Nebraska's defense is - it darned well better be Baylor.

- Thoughts?

Five Reasons To Be Confident Against Baylor

ccmachine — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 06:12:46 -0000

More photos » by J. Pat Carter - AP

Kevin Wilson trying to explain to Sam Bradford how he's going to fool Miami by running a draw play on 3rd and 9 and then says, "I wish we had you in there so we could run some real plays." (AP Photo/J. Pat Carter)

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Its game day again and the Sooners once more have to try to get over the hump of .500 football. It's kind of sad if you ask me but no one's asking so let's get the win and get on track to make a run for the Big 12 Title. We've discussed reasons for concern against the Baylor Bears but there are also reasons to be confident.

5. Its Baylor! - The Sooners are 19-0 against the Bears and are looking to push that to 20-0 this afternoon. Its safe to say that Oklahoma's has Baylor's number!

4. Bradford Is Back - The locker room at Texas Stadium was described as a morgue after Sam Bradford went down with a shoulder injury. This team has missed Bradford's on-field leadership and poise. There is a thought that this team will rally around their captain and hopefully we'll see a different attitude from the coaches all the way down to the players.

3. Robert Griffin Won't Be In Uniform For Baylor - Truth be told, Baylor's best chance for an upset went down when Robert Griffin did. Griffin was a two-fold threat for the Bears and had completed over 65% of his passes with 4 scores and no interceptions. Instead of their track star/dual threat quarterback opposing the Sooners it'll be Nick Florence or Blake Szymanski.

2. Baylor Allows 164.8 Yards Per Game On The Ground - That stat is good enough to rank them 10^th in the conference (ahead of Colorado and Iowa State) in rushing defense. Opponents are averaging 4.1 yards per carry and have scored 6 touchdowns against them on the ground. In Bradford's return Oklahoma should be able to use Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray on the ground to open up the passing game.

1. Home Field Advantage - Bob Stoops has lost twice in Norman. Both games were unexpected losses where the Sooners were heavy favorites. That could describe just about any team that comes to Norman and while two of them actually did sneak up on Oklahoma, twice in 10-plus seasons isn't bad.

Dirty Dozen Rankings - Week 6

Beergut — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 12:15:32 -0000

Our weekly ranking of all Big 12 teams. All Big 12 teams are done with non-conference play now, so we're moving full-bore into conference season. Teams are ranked on where I think they are right now in the season. Previous week's rankings are in parenthesis. As always, comments and constructive criticism are welcome.

texas(2): Back to the top after a bye week and OU loss.
Missouri(3): Battles Nebraska for title of best in Big 12 North tonight.
Nebraska(7): Arguably might have one of the best defenses in the Big 12.
Oklahoma State(4): Loss of Dez Bryant makes this ranking very shaky.
Oklahoma(1): Couldn't handle the pressure of being vaulted to the top of the rankings last week.
Kansas(5): Moved down only because I think Nebraska can beat them right now.
Texas A&M(7): Sorry loss to Arkansas brings back memories of last season.
Texas Tech(8): Struggled to beat a bad New Mexico team. Who is their starting QB now?
Baylor(10): True freshman Nick Florence has proven a capable replacement for Robert Griffin.
Kansas State(11): Win in Farmageddon over Iowa State shows Cats are making progress.
Iowa State(9): A 1-point loss in a divisional game is a positive trend for Iowa State.
Colorado(12): Loss to West Virginia keeps them in the conference basement for now.

Notes: Well, Oklahoma completely failed me by losing to Miami, even with two weeks of preparation, so texas moves back into the top spot in the rankings. So much for showing faith in a team...texas' game with Colorado this Saturday means they will enter their game with Oklahoma next week without having been challenged for three weeks. The way Oklahoma is playing right now, though, that probably doesn't matter...The fact that Missouri, a team many predicted to be struggle this season after losing Jeremy Maclin and Chase Daniel, might be the second-best team in the conference right now tells you all you need to know about the non-conference season this year...I like Thursday night games on ESPN, and I am thrilled Nebraska and Missouri agreed to have this one moved for television. Night games at Columbia are always fun to watch...The Dez Bryant story should bring a lot of attention to Oklahoma State's game with Texas A&M Saturday morning. Bryant's absence from the lineup makes Oklahoma State a little bit easier to defend; his loss has caused Oklahoma State to move from an 8-point favorite to off the boards in Vegas...Oklahoma should get an easy win over Baylor this week, because Baylor's defense is atrocious. We'll get to see how Nick Florence does against a stout Oklahoma defense, though...The Fighting Manginos of Kansas should be 1-0 in conference after playing Iowa State this weekend. Fighting their basketball team and a bye week should have them hungry and ready...Texas A&M faces a tough challenge against Oklahoma State even without Dez Bryant on the field. State's rushing offense will be a stern test for A&M's weak run defense...Steven Sheffield's performance against New Mexico pretty much blows holes in any claim that it is the players, no the system, at Texas Tech. When your backup QB can come in and still put up ridiculous numbers in one half of play, it's the system...I expect Nick Florence to continue to start for Baylor even if/when Blake Szymanski becomes healthy. Florence was solid in his attempt to replace Robert Griffin, although he lacks Griffin's explosiveness (so does every other QB in the nation, so that isn't a knock on Florence). Florence executes the offense without making mistakes that will cost them the game, while making enough plays to keep the chains moving; that is what coaches want from a true freshman QB with no experience...Kansas State is slowly improving by playing fundamental football. It isn't pretty, but you ca see signs of progress in Bill Snyder's team, if you look in the right areas...Last season, Iowa State opened conference play with a two-point loss to Kansas; this season, it was a one-point heartbreaker to Kansas State. Expect Iowa State to request no Kansas teams to open conference play in 2010...I am not sure if Colorado will be favored in a single game they play the rest of the season. Their best bet for a win right now looks like @ K-State October 24 or @ Iowa State November 14. Other than those two games, they should be decided underdogs against the rest of their conference schedule.

Postgame Reaction: Farmageddon

TB — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 21:06:08 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

K-State quarterback Grant Gregory invites you to the gun show. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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First off, my apologies for the game thread snafu yesterday. It was nobody's fault but my own, as I was so preoccupied with getting things ready for tailgating on Saturday that I forgot all about it. Not until at least the second quarter did it occur to me that I had forgotten to post it. Thanks to Pan for getting one up and getting the discussion going, and to all who participated.

Now, down to business. We'll get to the game itself in a minute, but yesterday made it crystal clear that this series absolutely should not be renewed. Given that the Chiefs have new management now, I'm guessing they may not have been happy about having these games at Arrowhead to begin with, but after yesterday's abysmal attendance, it's obvious this won't keep happening. Announced attendance was 40,815, which makes me wonder if the Chiefs even covered their costs for the game, even at the ridiculous $22 per car cost of parking (they're awfully proud of the Truman Sports Complex parking lots). I'm not saying I didn't have a good time, because I did, and it's good to see your team play only 10 minutes from your front door.

Anyway, on to the game. Click the jump for more reaction.

What I liked...

...a little spark at quarterback. I got a text about 20 minutes before game time informing me that Grant Gregory was likely to start. While Carson Coffman's struggles this season have been well-documented, I wasn't sure about this news, as Gregory didn't look great when he did play. For whatever reason, he was a completely different Grant Gregory yesterday. He looked like his grasp of the offense has improved by leaps and bounds since the ULL game. Even when his pass protection broke down, which was often, Gregory showed he had a knack for eluding the rush and keeping his eyes downfield while he scrambled. While I know we're not supposed to say anything nice about the beaks, that's one reason Todd Reesing is so good. He moves around and gets away from the rush, but while he's doing it, he keeps his eyes up and looks for open receivers. Both of Gregory's touchdown passes yesterday came on scrambles, one where he found Lamark Brown after ISU's cornerback fell down and one where Brandon Banks got behind the defense.

Even in the running game, Gregory showed he's not afraid to stick his nose into the action and take a few hits. He ran the option fairly well, although he made a mistake in pitching it to Daniel Thomas on the second drive of the game, almost resulting in a failed conversion attempt. Overall, Gregory has a lot to be proud of after this game, and it sounds like he was a little overwhelmed to have finally, after five years as a backup, gotten his chance to contribute. That's the kind of story we can rally around.

...defensive improvement after halftime. It's really refreshing, after the disaster of the last two years, to see that we have defensive coaches capable of reading what the offense is doing and making the necessary adjustments. Now, granted, ISU has about the thinnest playbook in college football, as they ran a grand total of about four different plays yesterday (not much of an exaggeration). They probably ran the zone read on 60-70 percent of their offensive plays, and it was pretty obvious that the coaches made adjustments to that at halftime. The Cats got better on defense as the game went along, forcing three punts in the fourth quarter alone on three-and-outs.

Despite what he did to us last year, the book on Austen Arnaud is being written, and the plot is pretty obvious: he can't throw the ball for shit. He completed less than half his throws on the day, and 45 of his 164 yards came on two throws on the last drive in which our defensive backfield made (or failed to make) inexplicably bad plays on the ball. Props have to go to our defensive coaching staff for limiting Arnaud to 164 yards passing yesterday after he threw for 440 the year before.

...winning the game based on...special teams? Josh Cherry wobbled home a 39-yard field goal in the second quarter to knot the game up at 10-10 going into halftime. And because ISU fans had their hearts unceremoniously ripped from their chests and stomped upon because of a blocked PAT, kudos to Cherry for getting all three of his PAT attempts over the defensive line.

...Emmanuel Lamur's ups. Srsly.

...beating a school whose fans plainly don't like you. In case you missed it:

K-State is probably my least favorite team in the conference. There's nothing I'd love more than to see them lose and have their fans have an uproar as to how such an "elite" program like KSU could lose to lowly ISU.

What I didn't like...

...some poor tackling, especially in the first half. Pan noted on the game thread that our "tackling yips" were back, and that was pretty accurate at certain points of the first half. Josh Moore especially missed a couple tackles by taking bad angles and lunging at the waist of receivers. He wasn't the only one. I don't think it's a regression so much as just the fact that those weaknesses show up more against a bigger, faster team than the likes of Tennessee Tech and UMass. We saw a little of it against UCLA, also. It doesn't bode well as we move into conference play, but it's going to be a fact of life around here for a while.

...two inexplicable plays on ISU's last scoring drive. On fourth and five, with ISU playing for its life, Josh Moore tried to jump in front of Arnaud's pass to Marqui Hamilton. Normally, I wouldn't criticize for making an aggressive play, but Moore left open the possibility that Hamilton would catch the ball and take it to the house if Moore missed it. Moore did miss it, and Hamilton fortunately wasn't fast enough to break away as Moore recovered quickly and got him by the ankles.

On the very next play, Tysyn Hartman shockingly let a sure interception go right through his hands and, unbelievably, right into the arms of a diving Jake Williams. I truly don't know what happened on this play. From my seat, I saw Hartman break on the ball the instant it was thrown, and given where he was, I thought it was going to be a sure interception. As this picture at Clone Chronicles shows, it's almost beyond adjectives how this ball got through Hartman's hands.

What it means and where we're going...

I'll skip the obvious gloating about being on top of the North standings, given that nobody else in the North has played a conference game save yesterday's opponent. It was a nice win that showed some progress by this team, but that's about it. There really aren't a lot of goals for this team other than showing improvement this year. It would take a 5-3 conference record to make a bowl game and, barring unprecedented collapses by teams like Texas Tech, Oklahoma, KU, Missouri and Nebraska, there's no chance we're winning that many conference games.

Next week, we're going down to Lubbock to meet good captain Leach and his scalawags. After a concussion yesterday, they may be short a gunslinger in Taylor Potts, but they're still a formidable opponent whose offense has been a headache and a half for Bill Snyder. If we somehow come out of the South Plains with a win, we could start talking bowl game, but I don't see it happening. Fortunately, for those of us not traveling to LBK, FSN has picked up the game for broadcast at 6 p.m. next Saturday.

Past Opponent Recap

Massachusetts took a week off before meeting Delaware next Saturday. The Minutemen remain 3-1 on the season. Louisiana also took a week off, and will meet North Texas next Saturday in Lafayette, La.

UCLA suffered its first defeat of the season, dropping a 24-16 decision to Stanford. The Bruins just can't avoid the injury bug, as safety Rahim Moore was knocked out of the game with a concussion. At 3-1, the Bruins get red-hot Oregon next weekend in Pasadena, Calif.

I'm omitting Tennessee Tech here, because it really doesn't matter how that team does.

Big 12 Roundup

It was a light week for the Big 12, with only seven conference teams in action.

West Virginia 35, Colorado 24

Colorado's misery continued in Morgantown, W.Va., on Thursday, as the Buffs dropped to 1-3 on the season, with all three of those losses coming on national television. Until WVU scored two consecutive touchdowns in the fourth quarter to ice the game, CU was always within striking distance, but never could put much together without the 'eers help (four lost fumbles, really?). Colorado's offensive coaches continue to try to hammer a square peg (Cody Hawkins) into a round hole (serviceable passing quarterback). Hawkins was 27 of 52 on the day for 292 yards, and tossed three interceptions. Rodney Stewart finally reappeared for the Buffs, picking up 105 yards on 21 carries, but Darrell Scott apparently had to disappear for Stewart to shine, as Scott gained only five yards on four carries. The Buff defense had no answer for WVU's running game, as Noel Devine gained 220 yards on 22 carries (yes, that's 10 yards per carry). It doesn't get any easier for CU, either, as conference play starts next week.

Up next: Texas (Austin, Texas), Sat., 10/10

For more: The Ralphie Report

Texas Tech 48, New Mexico 28

Didn't see any of this one, so not a lot of commentary to offer. It was dubbed the Dysfunctional Bowl after the two teams' various issues the week before (UNM's head coach allegedly punching an assistant, Mike Leach banning his players from Twitter after some interesting tweets appeared). Once again, Tech was spectacular throwing the ball (29 of 46 for 453 yards and three TDs, although the three INTs weren't so great) and awful running the ball (34 yards on 23 attempts for a woeful 1.5 yards per rush). New Mexico put up 431 yards on Tech's defense, an astounding total given that they were averaging only about 230 yards per game coming into this one. We can only hope Tech has serious defensive issues, as our offense can use all the help it can get.

Up next: K-State (Lubbock, Texas), Sat., 10/10

For more: Double T Nation

Baylor 31, Kent State 15

Even without Robert Griffin and Blake Szymanski, the Bears improved to 3-1 on the season. Kent State put up 424 yards on BU, though, which has to be a concern for the partisans in Waco, given that it wasn't any of their defensive stars that got hurt last week. Third-string QB Nick Florence played ably against the Golden Flashes, passing for 216 yards and connecting on 20 of 27 attempts (no INTs or TDs). Baylor also ran the ball decently well, gaining 158 yards on 45 attempts (3.5 per rush). Don't forget, however, that this is the same Kent State team that Iowa State hammered two weeks ago. Conference play begins for the Bears now, meaning they have to find three wins somewhere in that difficult Big 12 South.

Up next: Oklahoma (Norman, Okla.), Sat. 10/10

Arkansas 47, Texas A&M 19

The Aggies took a step up in competition and fell flat on their face against Arkansas at Jerryworld. Although A&M's offensive numbers looked impressive (458 total yards), they did a terrible job converting those yards into points. Penalties didn't help, as A&M was flagged eight times for 87 yards. Two fumbles didn't help, either, but Arkansas turned the ball over three times and just kept right on trucking. Remember, A&M scored only 19 points on an Arkansas team that came into this game after giving up 41 points to Georgia. I'm not ready to pronounce the Aggies dead, as they're obviously better than they were last year, but it's obvious a lot of the perceived gains from the 3-0 start were due to the opposition.

Up next: Oklahoma State (College Station, Texas), Sat., 10/10

For more: I Am The 12th Man

Miami 21, Oklahoma 20

I fell asleep in the second half of this one -- yeah, Farmageddon really took it out of me -- so I missed the excitement at the end of the game. Regardless, OU jumped out to an early 10-0 lead, then found themselves unable to do much of anything right over the next two quarters as Miami pulled to a 21-10 lead in the third quarter. Landry Jones played fairly well for OU, who played Miami on pretty much even terms statistically despite being outplayed through the middle of the game. With its second loss, OU's hopes of a national title this year have gone out the window, and it will be interesting to see how this team reacts. With those hopes gone, this may end up being an 8-4 team, or maybe they'll rally and spoil Texas' season by picking up yet another conference title. I'm betting on the result being closer to the former.

Up next: Baylor (Norman, Okla.), Sat. 10/10

For more: Crimson and Cream Machine

Football Bets - "What Mama Don't Know Won't Hurt Her" Editition

Beergut — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:52:51 -0000

Another week, another attempt to supplement our income off the backs of 18-22 yr old college student-athletes. After going 2-3 last weekend, I am one game below .500 on my picks for the season.

Oklahoma -7.5 @ Miami

Kansas St + 2.5 @ Iowa St

Kent +21 @ Baylor

New Mexico +34.5 @ Texas Tech

Texas A&M +1 @ Arkansas

Colorado played West Virginia last night, and cover the 17 point spread, as they lost 35-24. Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas, texas, and Oklahoma State have a bye this weekend.

Alabama -16 @ Kentucky

Washington +13 @ Notre Dame

LSU +3.5 @ Georgia

Georgia Tech -6 @ Mississippi State

Michigan +3.5 @ Michigan St

SMU -28 @ TCU

I think Kent will be able to stay close to a reeling Baylor team that is attempting to replace their star quarterback; I think Blake Szymanski will be rusty enough to keep it within 21 points. I can see Texas Tech beating New Mexico by 42 points, and think that line is a little low; take Tech in a blowout. The line on the A&M game is basically a pick'em, and I normally don't bet on A&M, but if I were betting on this game, I'd take A&M. I think Georgia will win by at least a touchdown, so take them over LSU. I also suspect Michigan St will find a way to lose to Michigan, but I'm not confident enough to put money on it, so I'm leaving that one alone.

Who do you like?

Dirty Dozen Rankings - Week 5

Beergut — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 11:48:54 -0000

Our weekly rankings of all Big 12 teams. The fourth game of the non-conference season has been played for most teams, with others playing their final non-conference game this coming week. The teams are ranked based on where I think they are right now in the season. Previous weeks rankings are in parenthesis. As always, comments and criticism are welcome.

Oklahoma(3): Moved in anticipation of their win over Miami
texas(1): I think high schools would have fought harder than the Miners did.
Missouri(2): Solid win over Nevada.
Oklahoma State(4): It was only Grambling.
Kansas(5): Close win over Southern Miss doesn't look so good after USM's loss to UAB.
Nebraska(7): Dominatng win over Louisiana-Lafayette was just what they needed.
Texas A&M(8): Beat UAB in spectacular fashion, as expected.
Texas Tech(6): Dropped because of back-to-back losses.
Iowa State(10): Moved up because they already surpassed last season's win total.
Baylor(9): Suffered most expensive win in Big 12 season so far, with loss of Griffin to injury.
Kansas State(11): Blew out Tennessee Tech. Meh.
Colorado(12): Good thing about a bye week is you can't lose to anyone. Can't beat anyone, either.

Notes: Oklahoma moves up after a ye week because I think they'll beat Miami @ Miami after two weeks of preparation. A win over a ranked team gives them a better resume right now than texas, even with texas being undefeated and OU already having one loss on their record...I don't think I have ever seen a Mike Price-coached team shos as little fires or passion or effort as the Miners did against texas last Saturday...Missouri did score a nice win over Nevada, and wins on the road are always tough to come by...Grambling's band put on more of a show at halftime with their tribute to Michael Jackson's "Thriller" than the football team did on the field against Oklahoma State...Kansas struggled a bit with Southern Mississippi, showing that the Jayhawk defense can still be had by a good passing game...I'm still not sure I trust Zac Lee to lead Nebraska to the top of the North division, but it is possible I'm putting too much blame for the Virginia Tech loss on him. He doesn't look like an elite QB to me, though...A&M's win over Alabama-Birmingham while missing two key starters on offense vaults them over a two-loss Texas Tech team.We'll see how far A&M has come (or how far they have to go) after the Southwest Classic this weekend...First the heartbreaking loss to Houston, then Twittergate. Tech will probably put 70 up on New Mexico on Saturday, just to purge the bad feelings of the last two weeks...Paul Rhoads is quietly laying a solid foundation for his program at Iowa State...We're going to find out how good of a coach Art Briles really is after the loss of Robert Griffin. If he can get Baylor to 6 wins with Blake Szymanski at QB, give him the conference coach of the year award right now...Brandon Banks is giving K-State fans at least one thing to cheer about. If they can be competitive with Iowa State on Saturday, that will represent progress...I'm not sure what Colorado spent the off week doing, but judging by their loss to West Virginia, working on run defense wasn't on the agenda.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable – Our Heart Goes Out To Baylor Edition

ccmachine — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 04:41:23 -0000

Lots of love goes out to the guys at Rock M Nation for making this Big 12 Roundtable happen. Just wanted them to know that they were appreciated and maybe, just maybe, if I suck up a little they'll include a quote or two from CC Machine in the recap.

Now, on to this week's questions. How are you feeling about the loss of Robert Griffin? Keep reading to see my thoughts (Hint: I feel a lot worse for Baylor than I do the Big 12) but we want to know yours on all the questions and not just this one. Let us know by using the comments section.

Is it time for the Big 12 to collectively pour one out for the departure of Baylor quarterback Robert "Hot Tub" Griffin? Even if your team benefits from his injury, are you sad to see one of the conference's premier playmakers done for the season?

Yes! I hated to see his injury and even worse to know that it was season ending. The Big 12 will be fine without Griffin because there is no shortage of players with star caliber around the conference but the Baylor Bears won't be fine without him. Without Griffin the Baylor Bears are reduced to being...well...the Baylor Bears. They are on a direct course to a last place finish in the Big 12 South and they hype of a possible bowl appearance will die a miserable death. I have little to no confidence that Blake Szymanski will lead them to the type of bigger and better things Griffin was expected to.

In a freaky ironic twist the Bears picked up a verbal commitment from Robert Griffin on Tuesday.

2. Play the role of Mythbusters for us. If you could dispel one national perception of your team, what would it be?

Well, the national perception of Oklahoma is that they are a great team that plays very well in the regular season, wins lots of conference championships but just can't seem to win a bowl game. How am I supposed to dispel that?

I guess that I could point out that Bob Stoops and his team did win the 2000 BCS Championship 13-2 over Florida State in the Orange Bowl, or the 2002 Cotton Bowl, or the 2003 Rose Bowl or even the 2005 Holiday Bowl. I just don't think those answers would suffice. Oh...wait...you mean the actual team on the field?

Well there is the perception that the offensive line if horrible and un-cohesive. I can dispel that very quickly by telling you to look at the last two games. Sure I realize that the competition was Idaho State and Tulsa but the issues with this line weren't physical they were mental. The last eight quarters of Sooner football have shown this unit to be mentally focused to reach their physical potential.

3. Give us the name of one player on each side of the ball on your team that everyone else in the conference may not know about or fully appreciate.

Who doesn't know the names on Oklahoma's offense? Even the backup quarterback was named the National Player of the Week. However, Brandon Caleb looks to be a name that you'll want to keep up with. Much of the attention in the receiving corps is going to Ryan Broyles who leads the nation in touchdown receptions but Caleb is quietly having a solid season himself. In Oklahoma's last game, against Tulsa, he caught 5 passes for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns.

On defense Ryan Reynolds is making a name for himself again. The kid is literally making plays all over the field. Tackles behind the line of scrimmage, quarterback sacks, interceptions and smashing hits have been the norm for this kid in the first three games of the season. Against Tulsa he had 10 tackles in the first half.

4. OU vs. Da U: Who ya' got?

You're just going to have to keep reading this week to find out the answer to this question.

5. Give us your Offensive Player of the Week, Defensive Player of the Week, and Storyline of the Week for last week.

Offensive Player of the Week: Danario Alexander (WR Missouri) - 9 catches, 170 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Defensive Player of the Week: Earl Thomas (S Texas) - 2 INT's

Storyline of the Week: The pirate ship is sinking at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have lost two in a row (coaching can be questioned in both losses), offensive lineman Brandon Carter has been suspended indefinitely and Twitter has been banned. Sounds like someone needs a come to Jesus meeting.

6. Power Poll! Rank the teams 1-12 based on who would win on a neutral field.

1. Texas

2. Oklahoma

3. Kansas

4. Oklahoma State

5. Nebraska

6. Missouri

7. Texas Tech

8. Texas A&M

9. Kansas State

10. Baylor

11. Iowa State

12. Colorado

Griffin's Injury Shatters My Preseason Predictions

Beergut — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:37:10 -0000

The announcement Sunday that Baylor QB Robert Griffin is out for the rest of the season with an ACL tear in his right knee completely obliterates two of my offseason predictions. Despite all of the hype for Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy coming into the season, I thought Griffin might be the best QB in the whole conference. The loss of such a dynamic playmaker for the Baylor offense completely alters the expectations for their season. With Griffin, Baylor might have been a bowl-bound team. My prediction for the upset of the year in the Big 12 was predicated on a healthy Griffin playing against texas in Waco. Now, without Griffin, Baylor may only be looking at a 3-4 win season. I can see Baylor beating Kent State and possibly Iowa State to finish with two more wins on the year, and a 4-8 record identical to last season. Unfortunately for the Bears, they don't get Big 12 North lightweights Kansas State and Colorado this year, or Bear fans might have been able to pencil in two more wins for bowl eligibility.

Senior Blake Szymanski will have to pick up the pieces and lead this Baylor offense for the rest of the season. Szymanski replaced Shawn Bell after his ACL injury in 2006 and started 10 games in 2007, so it isn't like he is completely lacking experience. We'll get an opportunity to see just how creative Art Briles is as a coach, as he tries to adjust his offense designed for the mobile Griffin to a scheme more friendly for a pocket-passer like Szymanski.

Griffin's injury also effects the Big 12 South as a whole, because a division that looked to have all six teams competing for bowl eligibility now looks like it has a true weakest link in the Bears. The Bears come to College Station on November 21.

Here is hoping Griffin has a full recovery and a quick rehabilitation so he is able to be back at full-strgenth in 2010; the Big 12 football season is more exciting with Griffin leading the Bears.

Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

We're to Day Two of everybody's favorite week of the preseason: Baylor Week. I close my eyes after typing that sentence and see confetti falling from the beautiful green and gold sky. Ahh, Baylor Week. Let's get to the stat-nerdy preview!

2008

Record: 4-8 (2-6 in conference)
S&P+: 212.4 (40th in the country, 8th in Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 336-352 (-16)
Conference Scoring Margin: 199-257 (-58)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): Texas A&M (#98), Iowa State (#104), Washington State (#118), Northwestern State (1-AA)
Losses: Oklahoma (#3), Texas (#5), Missouri (#10), Oklahoma State (#14), Texas Tech (#15), Nebraska (#21), Connecticut (#26), Wake Forest (#39)

First impressions from this rundown:

Baylor didn't beat a team ranked higher than 98th last year. Yes, they came close to beating Missouri and Texas Tech, but they didn't.
Baylor played SEVEN of the nation's top 26 teams according to S&P+, and eight of the top 40. Ouch.

Baylor was 0-3 in close games (i.e. final score within one possession), and that usually turns around from one year to another. Of course, all three came against highly-ranked teams (MU, Tech, UConn), meaning they might have overachieved just to keep it close....which doesn't foreshadow an automatic 1-2 game turnaround the next year.

In all, BU had a very respectable #40 overall ranking in S&P+. They beat everybody ranked below them (and by an average of 30.3 points) and lost to everybody ranked ahead of them (by an average of 17.1 points). After the first game of the season, a 28-point loss to Wake Forest, Baylor had a point differential of +12 in games started by Hot Tub Griffin III...for what that's worth.

The 2009 slate is maybe a smidge more forgiving, simply because UConn and Missouri probably won't be as good. Baylor starts with a trip to Wake Forest, then have three winnable non-con games against UConn, Northwestern State, and Kent. Their conference home games are against Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech--they'll probably have to win at least two of those games to end up bowl eligible, and based solely on my preseason projections, their two most likely wins out of that batch are against NU and Tech.

Coaching

Head Coach: Art Briles
Record at Baylor: 4-8 (conference: 2-6)
Overall Record (Houston 2003-07, Baylor 2008): 38-36
Career Pythagorean Record: 38.24 wins (+0.0/year)

Simply because he took the Baylor job, we know two things about him: he's fearless (and/or stupid), and he's got himself a healthy ego. You need those qualities to both accept the Baylor job and win in Waco, and though a 4-8 record is nothing to write home about, not every four-win season is the same. Just as Mizzou fans were thrilled with a 5-7 season in Brad Smith's freshman campaign, Baylor fans surely feel more optimistic right now than they have this millennium. Briles is a huge reason why, though the bigger, flashier reason is Mr. Robert Griffin.

Here's the deal, though: based on points scored, Baylor actually had a Pythagorean projection of 5.8 wins, 1.8 higher than what they actually managed. That's a big enough gap to suggest a poor coaching performance, but I'm not going to make that judgment after just one season. In five seasons at Houston, Briles' Cougars had a Pythagorean projection of 32.5 wins, or +0.7 per season. So overall his projected wins have almost exactly matched his actual wins, meaning his coaching probably doesn't hold his teams back too much.

Briles is and has always been an offensive coach. Flashy offense led him both to a) 172 wins at the high school level, and b) a spot on the Texas Tech coaching staff when Mike Leach came to Lubbock. He was running backs coach from 2000-02 before accepting the Houston job in 2003. His five teams in Houston averaged 30.6 points per game but allowed 29.4 (that number improved to 26.4 his final three seasons). With Griffin at the helm, it's pretty much a guarantee that Baylor will average healthy point totals over the next few years, but it's not yet a guarantee that they'll be able to keep enough points off the board to become a serious threat in the South.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 110.4 (#37)
Success Rate+: 100.9 (#58)
PPP+: 122.8 (#25)

Standard Downs S&P+: 102.1 (#59)
Passing Downs S&P+: 109.2 (#44)

Redzone S&P+: 111.7 (#37)

Q1 S&P+: 119.5 (#32)
Q2 S&P+: 116.0 (#26)
Q3 S&P+: 99.2 (#73)
Q4 S&P+: 85.8 (#108)

1st Down S&P+: 87.6 (#100)
2nd Down S&P+: 122.7 (#19)
3rd Down S&P+: 105.7 (#51)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 116.0 (#28)
Rushing SR+: 106.8 (#50)
Rushing PPP+: 130.5 (#24)

Standard Downs: 104.0 (#58)
Passing Downs: 133.8 (#19)

Redzone: 101.9 (#65)

Line Yards+: 103.8 (#57)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 105.1 (#47)
Passing SR+: 91.9 (#88)
Passing PPP+: 120.6 (#25)

Standard Downs: 103.8 (#51)
Passing Downs: 107.0 (#50)

Redzone: 139.3 (#10)

Sack Rate+*: 67.3 (#105)

* I've finally converted the sack rate figures to the "+" format used for everything else. This has also allowed me to change the way I rank offensive and defensive lines below, so some of the rankings have changed.

Some initial thoughts:

If you think about it, it makes sense that Baylor's PPP+ figures were much better than their Success Rate+ figures. They had a true freshman quarterback, and while they had their share of big plays, they didn't have enough of them to offset the lack of down-to-down success.
Their fourth-quarter struggles make sense when you remember that a) most of their wins were blowouts, meaning the first-stringers probably weren't in the game for a lot of fourth-quarters, b) most of their losses were blowouts, meaning the same thing, and c) they executed very poorly down the stretch in the close games in which they were involved--they averaged just 3.8 yards per play in the fourth quarters of their three close losses (UConn, MU, Tech). All of that adds up to pretty poor fourth-quarter numbers, no? It's still a little disconcerting that they were so much worse overall in the second half than the first.
I'm not sure I've seen bigger splits between 1st-, 2nd- and 3rd-downs. They were horrendous on first downs, very good on second, and okay on third.
As you would expect, they had solid success rushing the ball on Passing Downs--that's one of the more prevalent times where a QB will end up running with the ball, and we know that Griffin is one helluva runner.

Really, we'll know the Baylor offense is truly starting to come together when the efficiency improves. With Griffin at QB, the threat of the big play will always be there; but it's really hard to win, week in and week out, relying on the big play. You have to be able to stay out of trouble and move efficiently too.

Quarterback

2008 Unit Ranking: #28 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Hot Tub Griffin III (6'3, 200, So.)
Blake Szymanski (6'4, 205, Sr...Blizzle Szyzzle!)
Nick Florence (6'1, 180, RSFr.)

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Okay, now to the serious talk about Griffin. While he was limited in terms of personnel, and while he will eventually need to take more risks passing (which will almost certainly lead to more INTs), it really does take a while to figure out how Griffin (real first name: Robert...who knew?) could have improved on his freshman year, considering the team for whom he plays. A 59.9% completion rate, 2,091 passing yards, 15 TDs, 3 INTs, 142.0 QB Rating, 846 rushing yards, 4.9 yards per carry, 13 TDs. He was responsible for 28 touchdowns. Let's put that in perspective. Twenty-eight touchdowns is 196 points (with PATs). In Baylor's long losing streak (last winning record: 1995), they've scored fewer than 196 total points four times. Seriously. In all, Baylor's 336 total points were their most since 1994 (the last time they went to a bowl game), and considering Griffin was a true freshman last year, it's not hard to figure out why Baylor fans are excited.

So the question is, what will Griffin do for an encore? Can we just assume that his numbers will improve? Will the sophomore jinx kick in as more and more teams attempt to throw the Defending Brad Smith playbook at him, or is he so much better than Brad Smith (BLASPHEMY!!!) that it won't matter? And potentially most importantly, will he have more help this year? The longer he goes without serious offensive threats around him, the more likely he will become handcuffed eventually. Defensive coordinators are (usually) pretty smart guys, and they will figure out how to limit him if the supporting cast doesn't improve.

All I know for sure is, Griffin is likeable. Really likeable. Too likeable for a non-Mizzou player. He's so much fun to watch, and he's got so much potential that it's really hard not to root for him, at high volume, to succeed. Another good South team would do no favors for Missouri in terms of recruiting in the state of Texas, so it's best if Baylor stays a doormat, but that's not enough motivation for me to root against this guy.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #65 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jay Finley (5'11, 205, Jr.)
Jarred Salubi (5'10, 190, RSFr.)
Terrance Ganaway (6'0, 220, So.)

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

With Jones and Sanders either gone or at a different position, there is some new blood behind Finley. First, you've got redshirt freshman Jarred Salubi, a 2-star Waco product from the 2008 class, and Houston transfer Terrance Ganaway, who had a pretty decent freshman year with the Cougars, rushing for 550 yards and 6 TDs at 5.0 yards per carry. If either one of these guys can give Finley a little competition in the backfield, the Bears will be all the better.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

2008 Unit Ranking: #70 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Kendall Wright (5'11, 180, So.)
David Gettis (6'4, 210, Sr.)
Lanear Sampson (6'0, 190, RSFr.)
Ernest Smith (6'3, 195, Sr.)
Krys Buerck (5'11, 180, Jr.)
Mikail Baker (6'0, 205, Sr.)
Justin Fenty (5'9, 175, Sr.)
Terrance Williams (6'2, 190, RSFr.)
Kyle Mitchell (6'3, 220, Sr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Justin Akers (6'4, 250, Sr.)
Brad Taylor (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Matt Singletary (6'3, 245, So.)

Poor Kendall Wright. He had 50 catches for 649 yards and 5 TDs as a freshman last year, which in normal years would have pretty easily made him the best-performing freshman on the team. Instead he wasn't even the best-performing freshman at an offensive skill position. Wright certainly acquitted himself well in 2008--he had six catches for 114 yards and a touchdown against UConn, then put up a combined 14 catches for 212 yards and two TDs in back-to-back games against Iowa State and Oklahoma State. He finished rather slow--14 catches, 176 yards over his last four games--but he remains by far the most proven quantity in the Baylor receiving corps.

Joining Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #87 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C J.D. Walton (6'3, 305, Sr.)
G James Barnard (6'4, 295, Sr.)
G John Jones (6'4, 300, So.)
T Cameron Kaufhold (6'4, 285, RSFr.)
T Danny Watkins (6'4, 310, Jr.)
T Chris Griesenbeck (6'6, 275, Jr.)
G Jake Jackson (6'3, 285, RSFr.)
T Joe Korbel (6'6, 265, So.)
G Courtney Green (6'3, 265, So.)
C Hunter Hightower (6'5, 275, So.)

I've got to be honest: I have no idea how this unit included the 2009 NFL Draft's #2 overall pick. Unbeknownst to me, Jason Smith was a fortress at one tackle position. The other four guys dragged the unit to 87th in my OL Rankings. Ouch. Now Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

It appears that of the JUCO signees, Danny Watkins, a 4-star recruit from Butte (CA) C.C., has the best chance of stepping in and offering help immediately. Look for maybe one of the other JUCOs--either 6'7 Marquis Franklin or 6'4 Philip Blake--to jump into the rotation as well. Plus, you never want to rely on a true freshman to grasp everything he needs to grasp and contribute immediately, but 4-star stud Ivory Wade, from Dickinson, TX, will certainly have a chance to contribute immediately. This unit needed new blood, and it got it, but there's never any guarantee that the new blood will be any better than the purged blood.

Summary

Like Jonathan Moxon, Hot Tub Griffin III is only one man. Baylor has a couple guaranteed wins (NW'ern State, Kent State), and a couple of guaranteed losses (@OU, Texas), and the rest are relative tossups. If Baylor can go 4-4 in these games...

@ Wake Forest, UConn, @ Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, @ Missouri (yes, I'm broadly counting it as a tossup), @ Texas A&M, vs Texas Tech

...then they're bowling. And for them to do it, Griffin's going to need help from both old faces (Gettis, Finley, Walton, Barnard) and new ones (Salubi/Ganaway, Sampson, Watkins/Cameron Kaufhold). The explosiveness could be there--okay, the explosiveness WILL be there...this is Hot Tub III we're talking about here--but I worry that the efficiency still won't be up to snuff unless the new guys on the O-line can immediately make an impact. Otherwise Hot Tub III will still be running for his life quite a bit, and while he's as good as anybody on the run, you'd still prefer that he's not on the run a majority of the time.