SB Nation - Antonio Jones

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:15:23 -0000

As we enter the second game of what Gary Pinkel is calling Mizzou's second season, let's take a look at where Art Briles' Baylor Bears present a threat, and where they've been hurt worst by the loss of Robert Griffin to a season-ending knee injury.

It was supposed to be different this year. Thanks to Hot Tub Griffin III, Baylor was going to threaten for a bowl game. They were actually exciting to watch for once, and Hot Tub was Rock M Nation's unanimous favorite non-Mizzou player.

Okay, you twisted my arm...one last time this season...

One last moment of silence, please. The knee injury that robbed Baylor (and us) of nine games of Hot Tub greatness* has left Baylor lifeless on offense, and despite an increase in overall team speed on offense and a relatively salty defense, the Bears sit at 3-5, 0-4 in the Big 12. Their best chance at a Big 12 win--a trip to Iowa State--ended with an easy, 14-point loss. We have all died a little inside without Hot Tub in our lives...and Baylor has died on the outside.

* Just for effect, I should once again point out that Griffin PLAYED THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN STATE GAME (well, all of the game that the first-string played) with a torn ACL suffered on the first possession, attempted three rushes, and went 16-for-19 passing with 226 yards and three touchdowns. With a torn ACL. God I love that guy.

Alright, now that we're past that, it's time to look at the team Baylor does have, and the amount of threat that they represent for Mizzou at 1pm on Faurot Field.

Offense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

We're going to start with Baylor's overall "+" ranking, presented as we've presented data for every opponent, but this comes with a rather obvious disclaimer: Baylor's last five games without Griffin have shown a different type of team than the one that made up a chunk of these ratings. We'll take a look at Baylor, pre- and post-Griffin injury, after the initial spew of data.

Baylor Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	BU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.7 (40)	111.7 (35)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	104.7 (53)	104.8 (45)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	129.7 (29)	122.4 (33)

Rushing S&P+	133.2 (5)	102.7 (63)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (73)	118.3 (30)

Standard Downs S&P+	114.6 (33)	112.5 (35)
Passing Downs S&P+	123.6 (35)	115.0 (36)

Red Zone S&P+	128.6 (22)	104.4 (61)

Q1 S&P+	136.2 (15)	95.5 (77)
Q2 S&P+	106.0 (63)	135.8 (12)
Q3 S&P+	124.5 (26)	112.2 (41)
Q4 S&P+	105.4 (55)	115.8 (34)

1st Down S&P+	122.2 (20)	108.0 (49)
2nd Down S&P+	127.0 (22)	112.3 (41)
3rd Down S&P+	101.1 (74)	113.8 (38)

Line Yards+	105.9 (52)	101.6 (61)
Close Sack Rate+	95.7 (73)	93.3 (72)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	106.7 (57) / 108.3 (56)	101.9 (57) / 123.0 (37)

Analysis after the jump.

Now, let's look at the Baylor offense with and without Hot Tub III.

Baylor Offense: With & Without Griffin
Category	With Griffin	W/out Griffin
Close S&P+	120.3	89.1
Close SR+	111.1	92.2
Close PPP+	129.5	84.1

Rushing S&P+	169.5	74.0
Passing S&P+	89.0	94.3

Standard Downs S&P+	132.3	82.0
Passing Downs S&P+	79.8	113.4

Red Zone S&P+	150.7	102.8

Q1 S&P+	169.9	98.6
Q2 S&P+	77.1	96.4
Q3 S&P+	183.6	80.7
Q4 S&P+	87.6	96.7

First, it is worth noting that BU's actually a better passing team with Florence than with Griffin. That's not the biggest shocker in the world, but it does show that Florence is at least solid. And he's got a pretty deep WR corps (deep in that the #2 guy is about equal to the #6 guy) to work with, plus a nice, offensive-minded head coach. Also, for whatever reason, they're better in both Q2 and Q4 with Florence than they were with Griffin. You figure that one out, as I have no idea; of course, they are infinitely worse in Q1 and Q3, so usually the game is lost by the time Q4 (or even Q2) comes about, it appears. Mizzou might do Baylor some favors, as they are usually not particularly great in Q1, but it appears that Q3 is death for the Bears (strange, considering BU outscored Nebraska 10-0 in Q3 last week).

When Baylor Has the Ball...
Baylor Rushing	Advantage: Missouri
Baylor Passing	Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Baylor:	Q1
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2-Q4

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. Where applicable, I'll look at post-Griffin numbers.

Close Success Rate+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+ (though Passing Downs is close)
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st Down, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for Baylor...

Q1 S&P+
2nd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Without Griffin, Baylor has found the going a lot rougher in terms of utilizing their other weapons--WR Kendall Wright, RB Jay Finley, etc. They still have at least a decent offensive line, but that line will need to execute against Missouri's rapidly improving defensive line, and they will need to generate some early points, as Missouri assumes more and more of an advantage as the game wears on. And if Baylor gets handed any easy opportunities through turnovers or special teams, they simply must convert those opportunities into touchdowns.

Quarterback

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Nick Florence: 84-for-147 passing (57.1%), 942 yards (6.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT

So...any great nicknames for Nick Florence yet? He needs you now more than ever. Really, Florence hasn't been too bad passing the ball. He hasn't been great, but considering two of his four Big 12 starts have come against Oklahoma and Nebraska, two of the three best defenses in the conference (this week, they play the fourth-best, followed by the overall best next week against Texas), his numbers haven't been too bad. He is indeed just a redshirt freshman, and he was thrown into a no-win situation; granted he indeed has no wins, but he could be a lot worse. Let's just say that he's absolutely no worse than Blizzle Szyzzle, Blake Szymanski. No offense intended, Mr. Blizzle.

Running Back

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

Jay Finley: 42 carries, 261 yards (6.2 per carry), 2 TD; 4 receptions, 24 yards (6.0 per catch)
Jarred Salubi: 42 carries, 249 yards (5.9 per carry), 2 TD; 17 receptions, 134 yards (7.9 per catch)
Terrance Ganaway: 34 carries, 134 yards (3.9 per carry), 3 TD; 1 reception, 13 yards

Between Jay Finley and Jarred Salubi, Baylor has managed a pretty decent first-string RB this year. Unfortunately, most of their success came early in the season. Finley had 121 yards on eight carries against UConn, while Salubi had 131 in seven carries against Northwestern State. Since Griffin's injury, Finley has managed 49 yards in just 20 carries (2.5 per carry) while recovering from a sprained ankle and pulled quad, while Salubi has only been slightly better at 118 yards in 35 carries (3.4 per carry). Injuries haven't helped here, but the injury that hurt most of all was obviously Griffin's. Without the dual threat QB, teams are able to focus a lot more on the RBs.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Joining [Kendall] Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

WR Kendall Wright: 40 catches, 448 yards (11.2 per catch), 2 TD; 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3 per carry), 1 TD
WR David Gettis: 31 catches, 426 yards (13.7 per catch), 3 TD
WR Ernest Smith: 26 catches, 280 yards (10.8 per catch); 1 carry, 5 yards
WR Lanear Sampson: 15 catches, 130 yards (8.7 per catch), 1 TD

TE Justin Akers: 14 catches, 124 yards (8.9 per catch), 1 TD
TE Brad Taylor: 8 catches, 90 yards (11.2 per catch)

In Baylor's first game post-Griffin, Kendall Wright had 125 yards in nine catches against Kent State, suggesting there was life even with a dry hot tub. However, in the past four games he has managed only 16 catches for 134 yards and has scored zero touchdowns (of course, Baylor as a whole has scored only four, so that's not saying a lot). Justin Akers (against OSU) and David Gettis (against Nebraska) have stepped up recently, but until more than one weapon shows up for a given game, Baylor's whole aerial attack is grounded. Wow, I did not intend that weak pun there. C'est la vie.

Offensive Line

Now [Jason] Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

Looking at Baylor's Line Yardage and Sack Rates, you get the distinct impression that this isn't a particularly good or bad line. In fact, with rankings around 60th in all categories, you could say the line is actually perfectly average. Unfortunately for Baylor, Mizzou's defensive line has been improving significantly in conference play and is quite likely well above average right now, especially with Aldon Smith surging and a much less mobile quarterback looking for open receivers. This matchup has gone from a draw to a distinct Mizzou advantage in recent weeks.

---

Defense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Baylor Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	BU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	100.0 (60)	106.2 (57)
Close Success Rate+	94.2 (84)	103.6 (58)
Close PPP+	109.0 (44)	112.8 (56)

Rushing S&P+	86.3 (98)	102.1 (67)
Passing S&P+	118.4 (29)	110.8 (51)

Standard Downs S&P+	99.5 (63)	105.0 (60)
Passing Downs S&P+	109.1 (47)	109.7 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	122.7 (32)	70.7 (114)

Q1 S&P+	89.0 (86)	117.9 (50)
Q2 S&P+	102.5 (63)	100.2 (73)
Q3 S&P+	109.8 (45)	111.9 (52)
Q4 S&P+	101.1 (61)	102.4 (65)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (58)	102.6 (66)
2nd Down S&P+	95.2 (75)	106.6 (64)
3rd Down S&P+	109.1 (50)	118.9 (38)

Line Yards+	87.1 (101)	101.3 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	89.9 (78)	173.9 (16)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	79.1 (93) / 115.6 (45)	243.4 (8) / 124.7 (41)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage(ish): Baylor
Best Time for Baylor:	Q2-Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q1, Q4

With Gabbert looking much, much healthier against Colorado, we can at least tentatively put an end to the "injured Gabbert" period. So, since we did the "pre-and-post" treatment for Baylor, should we do the same for Mizzou? We know that Mizzou's offensive stats plummeted with Gabbert's ankle sprain, but we also know that the defenses Mizzou faced at that time were much better. Luckily, we have "+" numbers to account for the difference in competition level! So here are the numbers for when Blaine Gabbert had one and two healthy ankles (the "one healthy ankle" stats are for the last three quarters of the Nebraska game and all of the Texas and OSU games):

Missouri Offense: Healthy vs Injured Gabbert
Category	Healthy #11	Injured #11
Close S&P+	107.1	94.3
Close SR+	101.2	95.3
Close PPP+	114.1	93.1

Rushing S&P+	85.4	117.1
Passing S&P+	119.3	81.6

Standard Downs S&P+	103.4	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	90.9	98.2

Red Zone S&P+	70.6	108.4

Q1 S&P+	93.7	116.3
Q2 S&P+	91.3	107.2
Q3 S&P+	108.2	31.5
Q4 S&P+	101.7	81.4

Mizzou was significantly better at both rushing and red zone offense when Gabbert was hurt, but I think there is a bit of noise in the statistics there. Mizzou got a lot of credit for the touchdown they scored on their lone red zone trip against Texas, and that balanced out their craptastic execution against OSU. Either way, that's a damn small sample size. Meanwhile, the rushing success didn't seem to have anything to do with Gabbert limping around--it was seemingly more a result of Missouri's offensive line simply blocking better (and, potentially, their running backs running better).

Either way, we're definitely working with a small sample size here, but there are some conclusions that can be reached: 1) while Missouri's second-half execution against Colorado left something (okay, a lot) to be desired, they are still a much, much better second-half team with a healthy Gabbert. It's almost as if Missouri was able to disguise Gabbert's injury with good game-planning, but by the second half, they were out of tricks. Now, with Gabbert throwing more accurate passes and pulling down a couple of keepers, Missouri has a lot more options. Also, and this is some incredible statistical analysis here, 2) Missouri is a much better passing team when their quarterback can actually hit his targets.

With that in mind, let's look at Missouri's "healthy Gabbert" advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+
Sack Rates+

Baylor's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2 S&P+

With a healthy Gabbert, the passing game seems to be a draw, as do Q3 and Q4 S&P+ and 1st Down S&P+.

Defensive Line

Beyond [Penn State transfer Phil] Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

DE/DT Jason Lamb: 21.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 2 Blocked Kicks
DT Trey Bryant: 15.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 3 QBH
DE Zac Scotton: 12.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Phil Taylor: 11.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 QBH, 2 Blocked Kicks
DE Tracy Robertson: 10.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 3 QBH

So...has vaunted transfer Phil Taylor actually made a difference? Baylor's pass defense has actually been pretty solid, but their rushing defense has been horrible. If Mizzou's offensive line was able to open up holes for Derrick Washington and company and protect Blaine Gabbert from Colorado pass rushers, there's nothing saying they won't be able to do the same (and better) against Baylor. Maybe Taylor really is a difference-maker, but the rest of the line has been just terrible? Jason Lamb, who has been playing at Baylor since Grant Teaff was coach, has put up some decent numbers--as good as those of Mizzou's Jaron Baston and Dominique Hamilton--but he's pretty much it. If he's not making a nice play, then Baylor's relying on the LBs.

Linebackers

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Joe Pawelek: 52.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 2 PBU
Antonio Jones: 47.0 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
Antonio Johnson: 41.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU
Chris Francis: 21.0 tackles
Elliot Coffey: 20.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Earl Patin: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

I really was pretty impressed with Joe Pawelek last year, but while he's been rock solid this year, it doesn't seem like he's been quite the playmaker I was expecting. He's still good, though, and the Two Antonios have combined with Pawelek to form what is certainly a decent unit. As I put it in the offseason, Baylor has struggled in certain areas (i.e. run defense), but they're not the reason why. And they're fast enough to do decent things in pass coverage.

Secondary

Jordan Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

S Jordan Lake: 48.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF
S Jeremy Williams: 25.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
CB Clifton Odom: 22.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 4 PBU
S Byron Landor: 22.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBU
CB Tim Atchison: 21.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 PBU
CB Chance Casey: 18.5 tackles, 2 INT, 1 QBH, 4 PBU
S Mike Hicks: 12.5 tackles

If Pawelek hasn't been quite what I thought this year, Jordan Lake REALLY hasn't been what I thought. He was a pretty strong, disruptive player in 2008; this year, he's just a tackler. One forced fumble, one tackle for loss, and no interceptions? Huh. In all, though, Baylor's pass defense really has been pretty decent this year; I mean, ranking 47th isn't amazing by any means, but with a sieve for a run defense, the secondary has been the least of their problems. Can you tell I haven't at all been impressed with their defensive line?

Special Teams

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Punt Returns Rank: 22nd (Krys Buerck: 12 Returns, 7.5 Avg)
Net Punting Rank: 89th (Derek Epperson: 45.2 Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 39th (Terrance Williams: 13 Returns, 26.0 Avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 44th

Field Goals: 4-for-8 (Long: 41) (113th)
PATs: 17-for-18

If the special teams play involves a Baylor player with the ball in his hands, running upfield, then Baylor's special teams unit is pretty solid. If it involves somebody in a Baylor uniform kicking...not so much. Derek Epperson ranks in the nation's top 20 in overall punt average, but their net average has been hurt by two blocked punts, and they're giving up almost 17 yards per return (with one touchdown). Ouch. And Ben Parks has been far from great as place-kicker. But hey, Krys Buerck and Terrance Williams are bright spots. That's something.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over. With Blaine Gabbert's arm, I love the idea of going deep quite a few times, but with the advantages Missouri will have in other regards, Missouri really just needs to avoid Passing Downs disaster, and they should be alright. It's rare one of my keys is "stay relatively conservative and don't do anything stupid," but that does appear to be the case here. I like to surprise myself sometimes.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. (SPREAD DOESN'T WORK NEED FULLBACK RAWR!!!!! ET CETERA. Just thought I'd get that out of the way so that doesn't come up and I don't have to point out that Missouri's red zone offense has been just fine in the spread the last few years.) Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

Prediction

Clearly this is Missouri's game to lose. It is Baylor at home, after all. However, even without Robert Griffin, this Baylor team has more weapons and team speed than previous Bears iterations, and if Missouri lets them hang around, loses the turnover battle, gets some bad bounces, allows a big play or two, etc., Baylor can absolutely win this game. As long as Missouri plays average or better, they should move to 6-3 and bowl eligibility. The numbers say Mizzou by 16.5, so we'll say Mizzou 30, Baylor 13. Run the ball well, rip off a big play or two, don't commit any awful turnovers, and let Mizzou's defensive weapons--Sean Weatherspoon, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, etc.--make the plays they can make.

Oklahoma vs Baylor Game Thread

ccmachine — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 18:30:15 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Browse more photos »

Game Information

Date: October 10^th

Location: Norman | Live Radar

Stadium: Oklahoma Memorial Stadium

TV: ABC

Radio: Sooner Sports Radio Network

Satellite: Sirius Satellite Channel 152 | XM 105

Team Comparison	OU	Baylor
Points Per Game	35.5	36.2
Total Offense Per Game	424.8	393.2
Passing Yards Per Game	239.2	197
Rushing Yards Per Game	185.5	196.2
Points Allowed Per Game	8.8	19.8
Total Yards Allowed Per Game	253	330.8
Rushing	65.5	164.8
Passing	187.5	166
AP Rankings	19	NR

Baylor Players To Watch

Running Back Jay Finley - 22 Carries, 212 Yards, 9.6 YPC, 1 TD

Running Back Jarred Salubi - 24 Carries, 197 Yards, 8.1 YPC, 2 TDs

Receiver Kendall Wright - 24 Receptions, 314 Yards, 13.1 YPC, 2 TDs

Linebacker Antonio Jones - 40 Total tackles, 3 Tackles for loss, 1 Sack

Oklahoma Players To Watch

Quarterback Sam Bradford - 71% Completion percentage, 96 Yards, 1 TD

Running Back DeMarco Murray - 55 Carries, 408 All-Purpose Yards, 5.4 YPC, 4 Total TDs

Receiver Brandon Caleb - 14 Receptions, 201 Yards, 14.4 YPC, 2 TDs

Linebacker Travis Lewis - 39 Total tackles, 3.5 Tackles for loss, 1 Sack

Bevo's Daily Roundup - September 21, 2009

dimecoverage — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 08:00:34 -0000

Colt McCoy had the flu earlier this week.

Some of McCoy’s early struggles were understandable. He was waylaid earlier this week with a bout of the flu that caused him to miss practice on Tuesday and limited his participation later in the week.

The rustiness showed early as the Longhorns produced only 10 points in the first half and none of those came from the offense. McCoy appeared winded as he was limited to only five yards rushing on eight carries.

We'll take survival. It wasn't pretty but it is a win.

Again, the Longhorns won.

They are 3-0.

They'll take it and gladly move on to UTEP.

"Survival," said Texas coach Mack Brown. "It's not playoffs or anything else. It is survival."

The Tortilla Retort has the plays of the game.

Stewart Mandel does not think we are the second best team in the country.

Texas never really seemed in danger of losing Saturday night's game to Texas Tech, yet anyone who watched the Longhorns' 34-24 victory will understandably wonder whether they are really the second-best team in the country.

Colt McCoy did not look remotely like his Heisman-contending self from a year ago. Much like he did in his first two games against Lousiana-Monroe and Wyoming, the senior star started off slowly (Texas' only first-half touchdown came on Jordan Shipley's punt return) -- only this time he never heated up. Facing a surprising amount of pressure from the Red Raiders' injury-depleted defensive line, McCoy threw more interceptions (two) than touchdowns (one) and finished with just 200 passing yards.

See Sunday's BDR for more on the Tech game.

Aggies win. A&M beat Utah State 38-30.

Jerrod Johnson threw three of his four touchdown passes to freshman Uzoma Nwachukwu and Texas A&M overcame injuries to two of its top playmakers in a 38-30 win over Utah State on Saturday.

Johnson completed 21 of 41 passes for 322 yards and Nwachukwu also ran for a score for A&M (2-0), which lost sophomore receiver Jeff Fuller and freshman running back Christine Michael to leg injuries. Fuller was coming off a career-best, 10-catch performance in the season opener against New Mexico and Michael rushed for 94 yards on Saturday before he was hurt.

Wide receiver Jeff Fuller has a cracked bone in his left leg.

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State beat Rice 41-24.

Here it is, only the third week in September, and we’re already running out of ways to describe how Oklahoma State football isn’t quite what we expected.

Ride an elevator down from the press box, and you’ll see the faithful shaking their heads about the Cowboys’ defense.

Walk onto the field and you’ll hear other fans dressed in orange wondering when the offense will get its act together.

Oklahoma

Landry Jones led the Sooners to a 45-0 win over Tulsa. (ESPN video) It was a big day for Jones.

A school record six touchdown passes. More fake mustaches in the stands.

ESPN's Tim Griffin hands out stickers for week three.

The North

Missouri beat Furman 52-12.

The Missouri football team topped 50 points for the first time this season while piling up 525 yards of in yesterday’s 52-12 victory over Furman. It was the Tigers’ largest offensive output since they ran up 590 yards in a 42-21 victory over Buffalo in the fourth game of last season.

Nebraska lost to Virginia Tech 16-15. It was a tough afternoon.

It’s a "Bill Buckner" loss. Don’t deny it. You’ll sit in a daze for the rest of the weekend. Folks, right now, will be walking aimlessly through the streets of Nebraska. Danny-Coale-behind-the-defense is our "behind the bag!" Be honest – are you ever going to forget that kid’s name for the rest of your life? It’ll be a punchline at a black humor party. They’ll show the game on scary movie night.

Kansas beat Duke 44-16. Jason Whitlock thinks there is something wrong with the Jayhawks.

Mark Mangino’s Kansas Jayhawks smashed Duke 44-16 on Saturday, raising their record to 3-0, their season margin of victory to 127-26 and thoroughly impressing Blue Devils coach David Cutcliffe.

"They are far better than the No. 22 ranked team," Cutcliffe gushed. "People are going to have a hard time defending that team. They make you look a little worse than what you are."

Funny. I was thinking just the opposite.

I spent the whole afternoon trying to figure out what was wrong with the Jayhawks, their offense and their defense.

Buffs win. Colorado beats Wyoming 24-0.

It was a welcomed respite for the Buffaloes, who spent the week defending their coach and hearing about their poor play from fans and media — and even a geology professor who called out linebacker Marcus Burton in class last week, according to the senior captain.

The Cyclones beat Kent State. The win ended their losing streak on the road.

Finally, someone else woke up this morning with the nation’s longest road losing streak. Iowa State found a cure in Kent State for that Sunday morning hangover.

The Cyclones’ 34-14 victory against the Golden Flashes (1-2) before an announced crowd of 15,808 at Dix Stadium Saturday night stopped the streak at 17 regular season defeats on the road, and now there’s just one more negative to end.

Kansas State lost to UCLA 23-9.

It was a tough scene for the Kansas State football team to stomach. For so much of the evening, the Wildcats had given the Bruins a legitimate scare. At two points in the second half, they possessed the ball and had chances to take the lead with a touchdown drive. But the Wildcats couldn't come through when they had to, and in the end that's what did them in.

The South

Despite the loss, Tech looked like a good team.

"Give Taylor Potts credit for some unbelieveable passes,’’ Brown said. "I watched them complete passes … tip ’em twice and catch ’em.’’

And to think: There was no Mike Crabtree to wing passes to. The Longhorns got sick of watching Potts and Lyle Leong salute each other after touchdown passes. And a Saturday in this setting was useful to new wideouts such as Alex Torres and Austin Zouzalik, who combined for 12 catches for 132 yards, much of that in key moments.

Texas Tech punter Ryan Erxleben got his first start in a place very familiar with his last name.

Erxleben punted four times for so-so yardage – 40, 33, 35 and 45 – but he took the game-breaking Shipley out of the equation. On those four punts, Shipley had two fair catches, a return for minus-2 yards and didn’t field the other punt that slipped into the end zone. The last effort could have been downed inside the 5, but Tech’s Nathan Stone let it go through his hands.

Phil Taylor is having a big impact for the Bears on defense and offense.

The Bears lost to UConn 30-22.

With a massive Baylor Line freshman class clearing a path, Robert Griffin and company sprinted from the tunnel like they were going to run free all day.

But that was about the last daylight any Baylor player saw in Saturday’s home opener.

With a hyped-up crowd of 40,147 at Floyd Casey Stadium ready to party, the Connecticut Huskies stomped in like they owned the place.

Baylor had a bigger loss than what the score indicated.

"It’s kind of tough for us, because we wanted to start out our season 4-0," Baylor linebacker Antonio Jones said. "That was our main goal — 4-0. This was a big home game for us, and we needed this win. So it’s real disappointing to come out and lose the game. I don’t think we came out and played to the best of our abilities."

For a brief moment, they did. After Baylor fell behind 3-0, running back Jay Finley re-energized the crowd by busting loose up the middle on a 72-yard touchdown jaunt. Bam — just like that, everyone’s raising the roof, jiggling their hips.

But those Huskies, ever the party poopers, just wouldn’t go away. They were always there, hovering over the Bears’ shoulder, like an unwanted guest with overpowering garlic breath.

"It is real disappointing. We didn’t expect something like that," linebacker Joe Pawelek said.

Say it ain't so, Dennis. Is the USC dynasty at the end of the run?

Here's the current state of USC football: Pete Carroll tried to hide from Washington the fact that he was starting Aaron Corp.

Seldom, if ever, has Carroll had to play the game-time decision card with his quarterbacks. His guys have been healthy and experienced, sometimes legends. But on Saturday one of the nation's best coaches was reduced to gamesmanship involving a kid who had thrown eight career passes.

After retirement from coaching comes tailgating?

We hosted our inaugural tailgate last Saturday at the Texas game. We had about 60 people stop by. I discovered that they drink a lot. They don't eat much, just drink a lot. Mack Brown stopped by afterward and I told him, 'While you were walking back to the locker room before the game, your stomach churning and you were pacing back and forth, I had a Bud Light in my hand.' He laughed and gave me a high-five.

Sarah Thomas is major college football’s only female referee.

She has grown accustomed to startling players and coaches on Saturdays but said it did not occur as often as one might think.

"Most of the time they are so focused on what they are doing, they don’t notice me," Thomas said. "And that is what every other official strives for. Our best games are the ones that no one knows we’re there."

And finally...

It isn't always about winning.

Life comes full circle. In 1989, Colorado quarterback Sal Aunese died of cancer. His son T.C. McCartney now plays for Les Mies, the man that recruited Aunese for Colrado, at LSU.

Rick Neuheisel had a reunion with Kansas State player Attrail Snipes on Saturday.

It was in Seattle; in a poor, roughneck corner of that city that few tourists ever visit. At the time, Neuheisel had been dropped like a two-ton boulder from his job at Washington for answers he gave about participating in a betting pool. Scorned, jobless, staring at the prospect of never being a head coach of any renown again, for two years he soothed his wounds by volunteering as a quarterbacks coach at Rainier Beach High.

The team's defensive coordinator? Witcher.

Its swiftest, most potent player? Snipes.

Their story hardly ends there. For it turns out that Snipes had a secret, something he mostly kept bottled tight.

"I'd been through some hard times," he says, his voice quiet as he spoke this week over the phone.

A great story about Matt Zieselran, a player with Down Syndrome.

Matt Ziesel doesn't stray far from coach Dan McCamy on the sidelines during St. Joseph Benton High School's freshman football games. He likes to stay within earshot.

"I'm ready, Coach. . . . Coach, I'm ready," Ziesel says.

McCamy says he hears it about 10 times a game, and also at practices, from Ziesel, his 5-foot-3, 110-pound running back.

So in the final stages of Benton's third game of the season on Monday at Maryville, Mo., McCamy decided it was time for Ziesel - a 15-year-old freshman with Down Syndrome - to make his season debut.

2009 Husker Football Opponent Preview: Baylor

Husker Mike — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:00:31 -0000

During the first twelve years of the Big XII, Baylor established themselves as the doormat of the conference in football. Some even suggested that Baylor be removed from the Big XII, feeling it was hopeless for the Bears to ever be able to compete. Certainly it's unclear whether Baylor would have ever been invited to join the Big XII if it wasn't for the efforts former Texas governor (and Baylor alumn) Ann Richards. But a funny thing happened in 2008. Baylor football showed signs of life.

Baylor hired former Houston coach Art Briles to take over for Guy Morriss, and convinced his prized recruit, quarterback Robert Griffin to sign with the Bears. The season started in typical Baylor fashion, losing 41-13 to Baylor. But two weeks later, the Bears caught the notice of the nation by walloping Washington State 45-17 as Robert Griffin ran for 217 yards. Baylor would go on to finish 4-8 and break out of the Big XII doghouse by defeating Iowa State and Texas A&M rather handily. From that squad, the Bears return 18 starters in 2009; a scary proposition for the rest of the conference.

Robert Griffin returns at quarterback after a stellar true freshman season, being named the Big XII offensive freshman of the year. A dual threat wizard, he rushed for 843 yards and 13 touchdowns, and threw for 2091 yards, 15 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. He set an NCAA freshman record by throwing 209 passes in a row without an interception, nearly breaking the Big XII mark of 213. That's downright scary. Then consider his speed: he's a legitimate track star who hopes to run in the 2012 London Olympics.

That's freaky scary. I guess for Nebraska's sake, it's probably better to have Baylor on the schedule for Griffin's freshman and sophomore seasons, as opposed to his junior and senior seasons.

But Baylor isn't a one-trick pony; running back Jay Finley did outrush Griffin last season, adding seven touchdowns to the mix. He'll ensure balance in the Bears offense for his junior season. Griffin's primary targets in the passing game will be sophomore Kendall Wright, with 649 yards and five touchdowns last season, and senior David Gettis, a former track star in his own right.

Up front, the Bears return two starters, senior right guard James Barnard and senior center J.D. Walton. They'll miss all-American left tackle Jason Smith, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams with the #2 pick this spring. Two junior college transfers will take over at tackle, junior right tackle Marquis Franklin and junior left tackle Danny Watkins. Watkins is a 24 year old Canadian who took up football a couple of years ago and became a junior college all-American.

If you were paying attention to the preseason all-Big XII teams, you might have been surprised that Baylor had more first team selections than Nebraska did. Here's the scary thing: they're all on defense. Up front, the Bears will be led by senior defensive end Jason Lamb and junior defensive tackle Phil Taylor. Taylor, who transferred from Penn State after getting into an on-campus fight, was named preseason newcomer of the year.

All three linebackers return, including all-Big XII senior middle linebacker Joe Pawelek, who had 128 tackles and six interceptions last season. Bookmarking Pawelek are the Antonios: senior Antonio Jones and junior Antonio Johnson.

In the secondary, two part time starters return at cornerback in juniors Antareis Bryan and Tim Atchison, but the star is senior all-Big XII safety Jordan Lake, who merely added 97 tackles and three interceptions last season. Senior Jeremy Williams will man the other safety spot.

Last year's Baylor squad got people's attention by scaring Connecticut, Nebraska, and Missouri last season. Just before Thanksgiving, the Bears beat A&M, thus ensuring that A&M can now be referred to as the "new Baylor" of the Big XII, since the Bears are no longer the conference doormat. This year, they get UConn and the Huskers at home. The schedule sets up a scary Halloween matchup for the Huskers with the Bears, who might finally be shaking the "Bad News Bears" reputation this season.

Poll

What happens when the Huskers visit Baylor on Halloween?

The Bears go down in flames, much like David Koresh's compound

47 votes

Just like last year, the Huskers find a way to win this game

177 votes

Baylor finally breaks through and wins a close one

65 votes

Baylor wins in a blowout, meaning that every Big XII team has embarrased Nebraska this decade.

37 votes

326 votes | Poll has closed

Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:00:11 -0000

Yesterday we took an in-depth (as always) look at the Baylor offense. While Robert Griffin should continue to develop, it's hard to see the Bears being too much more potent with what appears to be a pretty iffy line up front and few potential new difference-makers. On the defensive side of the ball, however, things get really interesting. Art Briles was never known as much of a defense guy at Houston, but he (or more accurately, Defensive Coordinator Brian Norwood) had some toys to play with on that side of the ball in 2009. If the baseball truism about the importance of up-the-middle defense (catcher, 2B/SS, CF) is similar for football (DT, MLB, S), then Baylor could have a pretty dangerous defense in 2009.

Okay, not really dangerous, but this unit could improve a pretty decent amount.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 102.1 (#58)
Success Rate+: 97.4 (#68)
PPP+: 108.1 (#49)

Standard Downs S&P+: 107.0 (#42)
Passing Downs S&P+: 99.8 (#65)

Redzone S&P+: 108.6 (#41)

Q1 S&P+: 98.8 (#68)
Q2 S&P+: 100.7 (#63)
Q3 S&P+: 119.6 (#20)
Q4 S&P+: 100.6 (#56)

1st Down S&P+: 111.9 (#26)
2nd Down S&P+: 103.6 (#49)
3rd Down S&P+: 98.5 (#64)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 100.4 (#65)
Rushing SR+: 94.1 (#81)
Rushing PPP+: 110.2 (#45)

Standard Downs: 103.8 (#48)
Passing Downs: 108.3 (#51)

Redzone: 109.4 (#40)

Line Yards+: 92.3 (#90)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 102.4 (#56)
Passing SR+: 100.7 (#54)
Passing PPP+: 104.4 (#53)

Standard Downs: 109.9 (#28)
Passing Downs: 97.1 (#70)

Redzone: 110.6 (#32)

Sack Rate+: 84.0 (#81)

With tackling machines Joe Pawelek and Jordan Lake on the case, Baylor was able to pretty effectively limit opposing offenses' explosiveness (i.e. PPP+), especially as it pertained to the running game. However, the overall lack of talent on the field limited what Baylor was able to do in terms of efficiency (Success Rate+). Aside from one giant exception at defensive tackle, the personnel doesn't change much. Six starters among the back seven return, which is either good or bad, depending on how you look at it.

Other thoughts:

This defense showed one of the hallmarks of a hard-working, less-talented unit: good first down/Standard Downs numbers and horrendous third down/Passing Downs numbers.
While the BU offense peaked by far in the first half, the defense was pretty consistently mediocre aside from apparently making pretty nice second-half adjustments--they ranked between 56th and 68th in Q1, Q2, and Q4, while jumping up to 20th in Q3.
You have to wonder what BU could have done without an atrocious D-line.

Defensive Line

All eyes are on this man. And I mean, MAN.

2008 Unit Ranking: #91 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Phil Taylor (6'4, 355, Jr.)
DT Trey Bryant (6'2, 310, Sr.)
DE Zac Scotton (6'7, 260, So.)
DE Tracy Robertson (6'4, 260, So.)
DT Jason Lamb (6'5, 270, Sr.)
DT Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (6'1, 300, So.)
DE Jameon Hardeman (6'1, 230, Jr.)
DE Fred Plesius (6'1, 260, RSFr.)

Baylor loses three starters from the aforementioned atrocious line, and I don't think Bear fans are losing too much sleep over that. Two main reasons for that: 1) they weren't very good, and 2) OHMYGOD WHO IS THAT GIANT AT DEFENSIVE TACKLE??

That would be Phil Taylor, a former four-star recruit from suburban DC (Clinton, MD), had 20 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 6.5 TFLs, and 2 fumble recoveries for the Nittany Lions in 2007 before getting into an on-campus fight, getting one year of probation, and getting kicked off the team. He transferred to Baylor because new BU Defensive Coordinator Brian Norwood had originally recruited him to PSU when he was Secondary Coach in Happy Valley. He was recently voted the Big 12's Preseason Newcomer of the Year (what a silly award this is, when you think about it), and expectations are high, to say the least. If Taylor keeps his nose clean and thrives, then suddenly Baylor has all-conference talent at DT, LB, and safety. If not, if he's a bust, then this unit could very well be worse than it was last year.

Beyond Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

Basically, this unit will go as far as Taylor takes them. If he's a truly dominant force, then the rest of the line starts to look pretty good. If he's a bust, then this unit will rank about 80th at best this year.

Linebackers

Okay, you've won me over, Pawelek.

2008 Unit Ranking: #51 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Joe Pawelek (6'2, 240, Sr.)
Antonio Johnson (6'0, 210, Jr.)
Antonio Jones (6'2, 225, Sr.)
Earl Patin (6'2, 225, Jr.)
Chris Francis (6'0, 235, Jr.)
Elliot Coffey (6'0, 220, So.)

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Secondary

I can't decide if Jordan Lake is actually good, or if my view is clouded by the fact that he was in Chase Daniel's head all game long last year.

2008 Unit Ranking: #57 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Jordan Lake (6'1, 210, Sr.)
CB Antareis Bryan (6'2, 190, Jr.)
CB Tim Atchison (6'1, 205, Jr.)
S Jeremy Williams (5'11, 205, Sr.)
S Jeremy Sanders (6'2, 210, Sr.)
CB Clifton Odom (5'11, 195, Jr.)
S T.J. Scranton (5'11, 190, Sr.)
CB Trentson Hill (6'0, 185, So.)

Late in the Baylor-Missouri game, Jordan Lake read Chase Daniel perfectly and almost picked off a pass that, according to the radio announcers, he would have easily taken to the house. If that happens, Baylor potentially beats Missouri. Think of how that would have changed the 2008 season--Mizzou doesn't win the North (unless the kick-in-the-balls from the Baylor loss spurred them on to beating KU), and Baylor gets to five wins. You could conceivably say that with the confidence from a big win over Missouri, they may not have completely fallen apart down the stretch in Lubbock and beaten Tech too. But alas, Lake dropped the ball, Jeff Wolfert kicked the game-winning field goal, and 2008 unfolded as we remember it. While he didn't make as many plays as Pawelek, Lake proved himself as a hard-hitter and all-around solid safety, and the secondary as a whole was...well, downright decent. Not great, not even very good, but decent. And that was a step up from recent years. The unit should improve in 2009, as it returns most of its decent play-makers from 2008.

Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

Special Teams

My nominee for punt returner. And I'm only half-kidding. Okay, two-thirds kidding.

2008 Rankings: #7 Net Punting, #118 Punt Returns, #29 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Ben Parks (6'2, 205, So.) - 39-for-44 PAT, 6-for-9 FG (long: 42)
P Derek Epperson (6'3, 240, Jr.) - 38.8 Net
KR Mikail Baker (6'0, 205, Sr.) - 25.3 Avg, 1 TD
PR Krys Buerck (5'11, 180, Jr.)

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Summary

It's funny--when I'm writing about Baylor, I type out very so-so, mediocre phrases ("decent experience at tackle," "not quite sure if he's an all-conference talent," "didn't put up amazing numbers by any means," "not great, not even very good, but decent," "could be a good complement") in an intrigued, encouraging manner. I'm not going to pretend that, even with Phil Taylor thriving, Baylor will have a dominant, potentially Top-Four-in-conference defense. But what they could have is a play-making one, a bend-but-don't-break-and-hope-somebody-makes-a-sack-or-INT defense not unlike what Mizzou had in 1998, when they almost literally scored a defensive touchdown in every game. If they can make enough big plays to counteract what will likely be pretty high yardage and point totals, the Hot Tub Griffin III-led offense should do well enough to keep Baylor in most games. And if Griffin begins to thrive in the clutch (something he very much did not do in 2008 as a true freshman), then Baylor becomes a very viable bowl team.

Without giving away any results, Friday's BTBS projections will show that Baylor has eight games projected within eight points. Clearly stat projections aren't going to take "the defense could potentially make big plays and score some points of their own" into account, but clearly they're going to have some opportunities in 2009. Unfortunately for Baylor, a) I think their offense is still a year away from being able to consistently take advantage of those opportunities, and b) a year from now, the BU defense will be without Pawelek, Lake, Williams, Jones, and potential Taylor, if he lives up to the hype. As I mentioned yesterday, there's no more fun non-Mizzou player to root for than Hot Tub Griffin III, but while I'm almost positive Baylor will sneak into a bowl game before he leaves Waco, I don't think it will be in 2009. Might not be in 2010 either, but we'll see.

---

Projections on Friday.

Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

We're to Day Two of everybody's favorite week of the preseason: Baylor Week. I close my eyes after typing that sentence and see confetti falling from the beautiful green and gold sky. Ahh, Baylor Week. Let's get to the stat-nerdy preview!

2008

Record: 4-8 (2-6 in conference)
S&P+: 212.4 (40th in the country, 8th in Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 336-352 (-16)
Conference Scoring Margin: 199-257 (-58)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): Texas A&M (#98), Iowa State (#104), Washington State (#118), Northwestern State (1-AA)
Losses: Oklahoma (#3), Texas (#5), Missouri (#10), Oklahoma State (#14), Texas Tech (#15), Nebraska (#21), Connecticut (#26), Wake Forest (#39)

First impressions from this rundown:

Baylor didn't beat a team ranked higher than 98th last year. Yes, they came close to beating Missouri and Texas Tech, but they didn't.
Baylor played SEVEN of the nation's top 26 teams according to S&P+, and eight of the top 40. Ouch.

Baylor was 0-3 in close games (i.e. final score within one possession), and that usually turns around from one year to another. Of course, all three came against highly-ranked teams (MU, Tech, UConn), meaning they might have overachieved just to keep it close....which doesn't foreshadow an automatic 1-2 game turnaround the next year.

In all, BU had a very respectable #40 overall ranking in S&P+. They beat everybody ranked below them (and by an average of 30.3 points) and lost to everybody ranked ahead of them (by an average of 17.1 points). After the first game of the season, a 28-point loss to Wake Forest, Baylor had a point differential of +12 in games started by Hot Tub Griffin III...for what that's worth.

The 2009 slate is maybe a smidge more forgiving, simply because UConn and Missouri probably won't be as good. Baylor starts with a trip to Wake Forest, then have three winnable non-con games against UConn, Northwestern State, and Kent. Their conference home games are against Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech--they'll probably have to win at least two of those games to end up bowl eligible, and based solely on my preseason projections, their two most likely wins out of that batch are against NU and Tech.

Coaching

Head Coach: Art Briles
Record at Baylor: 4-8 (conference: 2-6)
Overall Record (Houston 2003-07, Baylor 2008): 38-36
Career Pythagorean Record: 38.24 wins (+0.0/year)

Simply because he took the Baylor job, we know two things about him: he's fearless (and/or stupid), and he's got himself a healthy ego. You need those qualities to both accept the Baylor job and win in Waco, and though a 4-8 record is nothing to write home about, not every four-win season is the same. Just as Mizzou fans were thrilled with a 5-7 season in Brad Smith's freshman campaign, Baylor fans surely feel more optimistic right now than they have this millennium. Briles is a huge reason why, though the bigger, flashier reason is Mr. Robert Griffin.

Here's the deal, though: based on points scored, Baylor actually had a Pythagorean projection of 5.8 wins, 1.8 higher than what they actually managed. That's a big enough gap to suggest a poor coaching performance, but I'm not going to make that judgment after just one season. In five seasons at Houston, Briles' Cougars had a Pythagorean projection of 32.5 wins, or +0.7 per season. So overall his projected wins have almost exactly matched his actual wins, meaning his coaching probably doesn't hold his teams back too much.

Briles is and has always been an offensive coach. Flashy offense led him both to a) 172 wins at the high school level, and b) a spot on the Texas Tech coaching staff when Mike Leach came to Lubbock. He was running backs coach from 2000-02 before accepting the Houston job in 2003. His five teams in Houston averaged 30.6 points per game but allowed 29.4 (that number improved to 26.4 his final three seasons). With Griffin at the helm, it's pretty much a guarantee that Baylor will average healthy point totals over the next few years, but it's not yet a guarantee that they'll be able to keep enough points off the board to become a serious threat in the South.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 110.4 (#37)
Success Rate+: 100.9 (#58)
PPP+: 122.8 (#25)

Standard Downs S&P+: 102.1 (#59)
Passing Downs S&P+: 109.2 (#44)

Redzone S&P+: 111.7 (#37)

Q1 S&P+: 119.5 (#32)
Q2 S&P+: 116.0 (#26)
Q3 S&P+: 99.2 (#73)
Q4 S&P+: 85.8 (#108)

1st Down S&P+: 87.6 (#100)
2nd Down S&P+: 122.7 (#19)
3rd Down S&P+: 105.7 (#51)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 116.0 (#28)
Rushing SR+: 106.8 (#50)
Rushing PPP+: 130.5 (#24)

Standard Downs: 104.0 (#58)
Passing Downs: 133.8 (#19)

Redzone: 101.9 (#65)

Line Yards+: 103.8 (#57)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 105.1 (#47)
Passing SR+: 91.9 (#88)
Passing PPP+: 120.6 (#25)

Standard Downs: 103.8 (#51)
Passing Downs: 107.0 (#50)

Redzone: 139.3 (#10)

Sack Rate+*: 67.3 (#105)

* I've finally converted the sack rate figures to the "+" format used for everything else. This has also allowed me to change the way I rank offensive and defensive lines below, so some of the rankings have changed.

Some initial thoughts:

If you think about it, it makes sense that Baylor's PPP+ figures were much better than their Success Rate+ figures. They had a true freshman quarterback, and while they had their share of big plays, they didn't have enough of them to offset the lack of down-to-down success.
Their fourth-quarter struggles make sense when you remember that a) most of their wins were blowouts, meaning the first-stringers probably weren't in the game for a lot of fourth-quarters, b) most of their losses were blowouts, meaning the same thing, and c) they executed very poorly down the stretch in the close games in which they were involved--they averaged just 3.8 yards per play in the fourth quarters of their three close losses (UConn, MU, Tech). All of that adds up to pretty poor fourth-quarter numbers, no? It's still a little disconcerting that they were so much worse overall in the second half than the first.
I'm not sure I've seen bigger splits between 1st-, 2nd- and 3rd-downs. They were horrendous on first downs, very good on second, and okay on third.
As you would expect, they had solid success rushing the ball on Passing Downs--that's one of the more prevalent times where a QB will end up running with the ball, and we know that Griffin is one helluva runner.

Really, we'll know the Baylor offense is truly starting to come together when the efficiency improves. With Griffin at QB, the threat of the big play will always be there; but it's really hard to win, week in and week out, relying on the big play. You have to be able to stay out of trouble and move efficiently too.

Quarterback

2008 Unit Ranking: #28 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Hot Tub Griffin III (6'3, 200, So.)
Blake Szymanski (6'4, 205, Sr...Blizzle Szyzzle!)
Nick Florence (6'1, 180, RSFr.)

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Okay, now to the serious talk about Griffin. While he was limited in terms of personnel, and while he will eventually need to take more risks passing (which will almost certainly lead to more INTs), it really does take a while to figure out how Griffin (real first name: Robert...who knew?) could have improved on his freshman year, considering the team for whom he plays. A 59.9% completion rate, 2,091 passing yards, 15 TDs, 3 INTs, 142.0 QB Rating, 846 rushing yards, 4.9 yards per carry, 13 TDs. He was responsible for 28 touchdowns. Let's put that in perspective. Twenty-eight touchdowns is 196 points (with PATs). In Baylor's long losing streak (last winning record: 1995), they've scored fewer than 196 total points four times. Seriously. In all, Baylor's 336 total points were their most since 1994 (the last time they went to a bowl game), and considering Griffin was a true freshman last year, it's not hard to figure out why Baylor fans are excited.

So the question is, what will Griffin do for an encore? Can we just assume that his numbers will improve? Will the sophomore jinx kick in as more and more teams attempt to throw the Defending Brad Smith playbook at him, or is he so much better than Brad Smith (BLASPHEMY!!!) that it won't matter? And potentially most importantly, will he have more help this year? The longer he goes without serious offensive threats around him, the more likely he will become handcuffed eventually. Defensive coordinators are (usually) pretty smart guys, and they will figure out how to limit him if the supporting cast doesn't improve.

All I know for sure is, Griffin is likeable. Really likeable. Too likeable for a non-Mizzou player. He's so much fun to watch, and he's got so much potential that it's really hard not to root for him, at high volume, to succeed. Another good South team would do no favors for Missouri in terms of recruiting in the state of Texas, so it's best if Baylor stays a doormat, but that's not enough motivation for me to root against this guy.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #65 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jay Finley (5'11, 205, Jr.)
Jarred Salubi (5'10, 190, RSFr.)
Terrance Ganaway (6'0, 220, So.)

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

With Jones and Sanders either gone or at a different position, there is some new blood behind Finley. First, you've got redshirt freshman Jarred Salubi, a 2-star Waco product from the 2008 class, and Houston transfer Terrance Ganaway, who had a pretty decent freshman year with the Cougars, rushing for 550 yards and 6 TDs at 5.0 yards per carry. If either one of these guys can give Finley a little competition in the backfield, the Bears will be all the better.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

2008 Unit Ranking: #70 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Kendall Wright (5'11, 180, So.)
David Gettis (6'4, 210, Sr.)
Lanear Sampson (6'0, 190, RSFr.)
Ernest Smith (6'3, 195, Sr.)
Krys Buerck (5'11, 180, Jr.)
Mikail Baker (6'0, 205, Sr.)
Justin Fenty (5'9, 175, Sr.)
Terrance Williams (6'2, 190, RSFr.)
Kyle Mitchell (6'3, 220, Sr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Justin Akers (6'4, 250, Sr.)
Brad Taylor (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Matt Singletary (6'3, 245, So.)

Poor Kendall Wright. He had 50 catches for 649 yards and 5 TDs as a freshman last year, which in normal years would have pretty easily made him the best-performing freshman on the team. Instead he wasn't even the best-performing freshman at an offensive skill position. Wright certainly acquitted himself well in 2008--he had six catches for 114 yards and a touchdown against UConn, then put up a combined 14 catches for 212 yards and two TDs in back-to-back games against Iowa State and Oklahoma State. He finished rather slow--14 catches, 176 yards over his last four games--but he remains by far the most proven quantity in the Baylor receiving corps.

Joining Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #87 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C J.D. Walton (6'3, 305, Sr.)
G James Barnard (6'4, 295, Sr.)
G John Jones (6'4, 300, So.)
T Cameron Kaufhold (6'4, 285, RSFr.)
T Danny Watkins (6'4, 310, Jr.)
T Chris Griesenbeck (6'6, 275, Jr.)
G Jake Jackson (6'3, 285, RSFr.)
T Joe Korbel (6'6, 265, So.)
G Courtney Green (6'3, 265, So.)
C Hunter Hightower (6'5, 275, So.)

I've got to be honest: I have no idea how this unit included the 2009 NFL Draft's #2 overall pick. Unbeknownst to me, Jason Smith was a fortress at one tackle position. The other four guys dragged the unit to 87th in my OL Rankings. Ouch. Now Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

It appears that of the JUCO signees, Danny Watkins, a 4-star recruit from Butte (CA) C.C., has the best chance of stepping in and offering help immediately. Look for maybe one of the other JUCOs--either 6'7 Marquis Franklin or 6'4 Philip Blake--to jump into the rotation as well. Plus, you never want to rely on a true freshman to grasp everything he needs to grasp and contribute immediately, but 4-star stud Ivory Wade, from Dickinson, TX, will certainly have a chance to contribute immediately. This unit needed new blood, and it got it, but there's never any guarantee that the new blood will be any better than the purged blood.

Summary

Like Jonathan Moxon, Hot Tub Griffin III is only one man. Baylor has a couple guaranteed wins (NW'ern State, Kent State), and a couple of guaranteed losses (@OU, Texas), and the rest are relative tossups. If Baylor can go 4-4 in these games...

@ Wake Forest, UConn, @ Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, @ Missouri (yes, I'm broadly counting it as a tossup), @ Texas A&M, vs Texas Tech

...then they're bowling. And for them to do it, Griffin's going to need help from both old faces (Gettis, Finley, Walton, Barnard) and new ones (Salubi/Ganaway, Sampson, Watkins/Cameron Kaufhold). The explosiveness could be there--okay, the explosiveness WILL be there...this is Hot Tub III we're talking about here--but I worry that the efficiency still won't be up to snuff unless the new guys on the O-line can immediately make an impact. Otherwise Hot Tub III will still be running for his life quite a bit, and while he's as good as anybody on the run, you'd still prefer that he's not on the run a majority of the time.

The Fog of '09 - South Defenses

Bill C. — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 15:00:06 -0000

Defensive Lines

Oklahoma (DEs Auston English & Jeremy Beal, DTs Gerald McCoy & DeMarcus Granger)
Texas Tech (DTs Colby Whitlock & Richard Jones, DEs Brandon Williams & McKinner Dixon)
Oklahoma State (DEs Ugo Chinasa, Derek Burton)
Texas (DT Lamarr Houston, DEs Sam Acho & Eddie Jones)
Baylor (DT Trey Bryant, DE Jason Lamb)
Texas A&M (DTs Lucas Patterson & Tony Jerod-Eddie)

That's right, all four of OU's DL starters (plus DT Adrian Taylor) return. Granted, any of them could choose to go pro, but a) I doubt it, and b) if so I'd still probably have OU's line #1.

Linebackers

Oklahoma (Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box)
Texas (Sergio Kindle--for now, Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton)
Oklahoma State (Orie Lemon, Patrick Lavine, Andre Sexton)
Texas Tech (Brian Duncan, Marlon Williams, Bront Bird)
Baylor (Joe Pawelek, Antonio Jones, Antonio Johnson)
Texas A&M (Von Miller, Anthony Lewis, Garrick Williams)

Seriously, OU is going to have BY FAR the best front seven in the conference. Their offense might struggle from time to time, but they'll still be in the South hunt because of a stud defense. Beyond OU, there's pretty much a logjam. If Sergio Kindle decides to go pro, then UT's LBs possibly fall to about #4 or #5 because OSU, Tech and Baylor all return pretty competent units almost intact.

Defensive Backs

Texas (CBs Chykie Brown & Deon Beasley, Ss Earl Thomas & Blake Gideon)
Oklahoma (CBs Dominique Franks, Brian Jackson)
Baylor (S Jordan Lake, CB Antareis Bryan)
Texas Tech (CBs Jamar Wall & Brent Nickerson)
Texas A&M (CB Jordan Pugh, S Jordan Peterson)
Oklahoma State (CB Perrish Cox, ...?)

Texas aside, everybody's secondary takes a step backwards. The Longhorn secondary, however, will be STOUT.

South Defenses, 2009

Oklahoma (17)
Texas (14)
Texas Tech (11)
Oklahoma State (9)
Baylor (8)
Texas A&M (4)

I'm starting to get the indication that Mike Sherman's second year at ATM won't be much better than his first. ATM is young, and they'll have some talent, but at some point they fell a step (or more) behind everybody else in the South.

Special Teams

Oklahoma State (K Dan Bailey, PR Dez Bryant, KR Perrish Cox)
Oklahoma (PR Ryan Broyles, KR DeMarco Murray, K Jimmy Stevens)
Texas (K Hunter Lawrence, P Justin Tucker, KR Malcolm Williams)
Texas Tech (K Donnie Carona, P Jonathan LaCour, KR Edward Britton)
Baylor (KR Mikail Baker, K Ben Parks, P Derek Epperson)
Texas A&M (PR Jordan Pugh, KR Cyrus Gray, ...?)

No complete unit among the group, but OSU is the closest.

Coaches

Oklahoma
Texas
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

If I rank them again in 5 minutes, I'll probably get a completely different order. I didn't say this was scientific.

2009 South Rankings

Texas (43)
Oklahoma (43)
Oklahoma State (40)
Texas Tech (29)
Baylor (19)
Texas A&M (15)

Honestly, with the status of OU's offense, this surprises me, but there OU is, right in the thick of things. So how do the schedules shake out?

-- Schedules --

Baylor

10/10 - at Oklahoma
10/17 - at Iowa State
10/24 - Oklahoma State
10/31 - Nebraska
11/7 - at Missouri
11/14 - Texas
11/21 - at Texas A&M
11/28 - Texas Tech

North schedule: @ ISU, NU, @ MU. An unfortunate slate for Baylor, really. Yeah, they can probably take out NU at home, but traveling to Ames makes that one something of a tossup (I picked ISU in Monday's North preview, and I'm already regretting that one) and traveling to Columbia gives MU an edge there. I say 1-2.

South home slate: OSU, UT, Tech. Hmm. They're going to win one of these games, but I'm not sure which one. Tech, maybe? We'll go with Tech. Two upsets here is possibly too much to ask, but it's not unthinkable. 1-2.

South road slate: @ OU, @ ATM. You know Baylor will be gunning for their first bowl since Grant Teaff next year, and with a likely 3-1 non-conference record (@ Wake Forest, UConn, NW'ern State, Kent State), the bowl bid might come down to the ATM game. They stomped ATM in Waco this year...but for now we'll go with the home team. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6.

Oklahoma

10/10 - Baylor
10/17 - vs Texas
10/24 - at Kansas
10/31 - Kansas State
11/7 - at Nebraska
11/14 - Texas A&M
11/21 - at Texas Tech
11/28 - Oklahoma State

North schedule: @ KU, KSU, @ NU. The trip to Lincoln could be iffy, as could the trip to Lawrence, but...for now I'm sticking with 3-0.

South home slate: Baylor, ATM, OSU. Clearly, getting OSU at Owen Field is big. 3-0.

South road slate: vs UT, @ Tech. Only one true South road game for OU in '09, which gives them nice opportunity to break in a new O-line and possibly a new QB with fewer setbacks. But the youth will still bite them here. I favor UT in Dallas, and the trip to Lubbock screams "setback". 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 6-2.

Oklahoma State

10/10 - at Texas A&M
10/17 - Missouri
10/24 - at Baylor
10/31 - Texas
11/7 - at Iowa State
11/14 - Texas Tech
11/21 - Colorado
11/28 - at Oklahoma

North schedule: MU, @ISU, CU. This sets up very well for OSU. The trip to Ames might be a landmine if the Jack Trice Winds play a factor...but probably not. 3-0.

South home slate: UT, Tech. BIG games here. I say they beat Tech, but...Texas? Are they ready for that? That could decide the South right there. I change my mind later, I'm sure, but I'm going to say yes...yes, they can win that game. 2-0.

South road slate: @ATM, @BU, @OU. The Baylor trip could be a major landmine, but we'll say OSU pulls it off for now. They still lose to OU, though. 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 7-1.

Texas

10/10 - Colorado
10/17 - vs Oklahoma
10/24 - at Missouri
10/31 - at Oklahoma State
11/7 - Texas Tech
11/14 - at Baylor
11/21 - Kansas
11/28 - at Texas A&M

North schedule: CU, @MU, KU. Yeah, 3-0.

South home slate: vs OU, Tech. Only one true South home game, but they'll TCB. 2-0.

South road slate: @OSU, @BU, @ATM. I said OSU would win? Guess that means 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 7-1.

Texas A&M

10/10 - Oklahoma State
10/17 - at Kansas State
10/24 - at Texas Tech
10/31 - Iowa State
11/7 - at Colorado
11/14 - at Oklahoma
11/21 - Baylor
11/28 - Texas

North schedule: @KSU, ISU, @CU. 3-0? 0-3? Anything's possible here. I'll go homefield and say 1-2.

South home slate: OSU, BU, UT. 1-2.

South road slate: @Tech, @OU. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6.

Texas Tech

10/10 - Kansas State
10/17 - at Nebraska
10/24 - Texas A&M
10/31 - Kansas
11/7 - at Texas
11/14 - at Oklahoma State
11/21 - Oklahoma
11/28 - at Baylor

North schedule: KSU, @NU, KU. 2-1.

South home slate: @UT, @OSU, @BU. Tech's been much better on the road this year than previous years, but without Harrell and Crabtree (and over half the O-line), there will be regression. I'll still have them beating BU, but that's it. 1-2.

South road slate: ATM, OU. 2-0.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 5-3.

Standings

Oklahoma State 7-1
Texas 7-1
Oklahoma 6-2
Texas Tech 5-3
Baylor 2-6
Texas A&M 2-6

Summary

I don't think I'm giving Baylor enough credit. They'll probably beat ATM or OSU or something, but who knows. Also, I'm probably giving OSU too much credit--expectations could overtake them. Honestly I'm already wanting to bump UT ahead of OSU and BU ahead of ATM, but that's just me thinking too hard.