SB Nation - Jordan Lake

Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose :: Baylor Bears Edition

Seth C — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:00:15 -0000

by Sue Ogrocki - AP

26 days ago: Texas Tech running back Baron Batch, center, leaps into the end zone for a touchdown against Oklahoma during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game in Lubbock, Texas, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009. Texas Tech won the game 41-13. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

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This weekly feature considers five reasons why Texas Tech will win and five reasons Texas Tech will lose to each opponent. Check back tomorrow for "Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Win :: Baylor Bears Edition". ----- Ed. Note: I really had to hurry to get these up this morning. Apologies in advance for the quality.

Reason #1 :: Bowl Game: This is Baylor's finale for the year and it's only fitting that this is the #1 reason. It's a reason that the most of Texas Tech fans have expressed concern about since the TAMU loss and I still think there's a trust issue with this team. After sky-high wins, this version of the Red Raiders may be prone to letting press-clippings, girlfriends and other things let them know how great they are. There's plenty of talent on Baylor's squad and to discount Baylor because they are Baylor would be a huge mistake.

Reason #2 :: Short and Sweet: QB Nick Florence is a true freshman and he's not playing as bad as you would expect. Florence is a dink and dump sort of passer and he's not the type that likes to throw the ball deep. Florence is 7th in the conference in passing, again as a true freshman, and it will be interesting to see how Ruffin McNeill matches up with Florence in that there is no doubt that McNeill will play the bend-but-do-not-break methodology for this game.

Reason #3 :: Play Making Defense: Most of Baylor's opponents know about LB Joe Pawelek and S Jordan Lake. Both are seniors, Pawelek has 97 tackles (leads team), 2.5 sacks (2nd on team), and 4 TFL (3rd on team), while Lake has 83 tackles (2nd on team). You never underestimate the player that is playing his final collegiate game and is playing for pride. A little momentum could be dangerous thing for Texas Tech and both Pawelek and Lake are momentum makers.

Reason #4 :: Briles Knows Leach: This didn't help Bob Stoops last week, in part because I think Leach changed some things up this week, but there may not be a coach that knows Leach better than Art Briles and I think it showed last year. Of course, last year, QB Robert Griffin led the Baylor offense, which rushed for 229 yards total, while Griffin accounted for 99 yards and 2 TD's on the ground and Jay Finley ran for 105 yards on 10 carries. I know that Baylor lost LT Jason Smith, and it's been a huge loss for Baylor, but the Bears are capable and I think they are even more capable with Briles at the helm.

Reason #5 :: Shutting Down the Spread: I'm still somewhat shocked when I read the score and some of the status, but with Florence in charge, the Bears took down the Missouri Tigers, at Missouri. The subject line is a bit mis-leading in that Baylor really didn't shut down Mizzou, as QB Blaine Gabbert threw for 468 yards and 2 TD's, but the Baylor defense did register 4 sacks for the game and limited the Mizzou running game to 10 yards . . . for the day. The Tigers didn't seem to get their ground game going, and perhaps that's the key for the Red Raiders. Continue to run the ball, where Baylor is giving up 185 yards a game overall, but 230 in losses and only 108 in wins.

Crunching the Numbers :: Baylor Bears Edition

Seth C — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:00:13 -0000

Texas Tech Red Raiders
(7-4, 4-3)

vs.

Baylor Bears
(4-7, 1-6)

Game Information:
Date: November 28, 2009 :: Time: 5:00 p.m. CST :: Weather: Dallas, TX
TV: FSN :: Radio: Affiliates :: Game Cast: Fox Sports

A little short on time due to the holidays. Help me help the rest of you and post any of your initial thoughts in the comments.

CATEGORY	STATISTIC (NCAA RANK, CONF. RANK)	WINNER
TTU Pass Offense vs. BU Pass Defense	390.82 (2, 1) 223.00 (72, 6)
TTU Rush Offense vs. BU Rush Defense	79.36 (114, 12) 185.91 (100, 12)
BU Pass Offense vs. TTU Pass Defense	242.73 (39, 7) 222.45 (70, 5)
BU Rush Offense vs. TTU Rush Defense	100.27 (108, 10) 126.91 (40, 7)
TTU Scoring Offense vs. BU Scoring Defense	38.18 (7, 2) 27.91 (82, 10)
BU Scoring Offense vs. TTU Scoring Defense	21.45 (97, 11) 22.55 (42, 5)

Five Initial Thoughts

One :: Staying Grounded: When I looked at the stats last week, I thought that the Red Raiders would have to play the game of their lives against Oklahoma. The same could be said this week and I hope the team stays grounded. It can happen to you.

Two :: Still Effective Passing: Despite the slew of injuries at the Baylor quarterback position, freshman Nick Florence has still been respectable throwing the ball. Florence busted out for 427 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions at Missouri. He had a rough week against TAMU, but he's more than capable.

Three :: Struggling to Run: The Bears are not quite as bad as Texas Tech, but they're the closest opponent in terms of rushing offense, checking in for 10th in the conference and 100 yards a game. It's been a hodge-podge of runners, including Jay Finley, Jarred Salubi, Terrance Ganaway and Kendall Wright rush the ball.

Four :: Wright Way: WR Kendall Wright has been a bit up-and-down this year and he's averaging 65.4 receiving yards a game, which is good for 9th in the Big 12.

Five :: Defensive Leaders: LB Joe Pawelek and S Jordan Lake are respectively 3rd and 7th in the conference in tackles. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see both of these guys make some plays this week.

Baylor Preview

Beergut — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:31:24 -0000

I'm sure there are some Aggies who are looking at Baylor's 4-6 record so far this season and thinking they'll be no problem for us on Saturday. I'm sure there are some fans who think because Robert Griffin is no longer leading Baylor's offense, they aren't much of a threat to beat us in College Station. We can't afford that kind of overconfidence. We're not good enough to overlook anyone.

The most important thing we need to do against Baylor is experience some offensive success early and jump out to an early lead. Baylor's defense isn't incredible, but they haven't given up an offensive touchdown in the last three games in the second half. This means that their hafltime adjustments are working, and it also means that they don't quit despite being behind.

Baylor's offense is led by redshirt freshman Nick Florence, who has poassed for 1609 yards, 6 TDs, and 7 interceptions since taking over for Robert Griffin. Florence is a decent quarterback, despite his numbers, who can hurt us through the air and on the ground. Getting pressure on Florence and sacking him a few times is imperative. Baylor's passing game depends heavily on WR screens and bubble screens, which is the bane of our defense's existence. We need to be disciplined, get off the blocking receiver, and make the tackle. It would also help if we didn't play zone all game, but that is a scheme issue.

The two Baylor players who worry me the most are wide receivers Kendall Wright and David Gettis. Both are terrific athletes who make plays with the ball in their hands. Baylor will use Wright on Jet sweeps to stretch the defense laterally. RB Jay Finley isn't a burner, but he is effective. He ripped us apart last year in Waco.

Defensively, LB Joe Pawelek is the main person we need to be aware of. Pawelek leads the team in tackles, sacks, and is tied for the team lead in tackles for loss. He is simply a playmaker. One Baylor defender who I think is overrated is safety Jordan Lake, who I think we can take advantage of in the passing game. I think Lake is overrated in his coverage abilities, and Uzoma Nwachukwu and Jeff Fuller should be able to beat him deep, assuming we are able to get the ball to them. up about 167 yards per game rushing, so we should be able to run the ball on them, especially if we can block Pawelek, and go off-tackle. Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray should be able to have a good day.

If we do what we're supposed to do, we should be able to beat Baylor, earn our sixth win, and attain bowl eligibility. We need to start out fast on offense, put some points on the board, and put pressure on their offense to keep up with us in the early going. This will allow us to run the ball, run the clock, and control the game in the second half. If we do what we need to do, we will win the game.

Anatomy of Momentum: Scoring After the Fourth-Down Stop

GhostofBigRoy — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:38:31 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Browse more photos »

The Context

Will Muschamp talks a lot about his defense responding to sudden-change situations, calling his players "firemen" when coming onto the field after an offensive turnover. For the offense, the idea is similar, though instead of stopping the opposing team from generating momentum by scoring after a sudden change, the offense intends to consolidate momentum established by the defense with a turnover or a fourth-down stop.

Taking a calculated risk on his own 44 yardline, Art Briles went for it on fourth down on Bayor's second possession, hoping to establish some momentum for the Bears, down 7-0 10 minutes into the game. The Texas defense, having game-planned for the Baylor quick snap on fourth down -- they had seen it on film against Missouri -- did an excellent job of stopping the quarterback sneak, with the defensive line winning the battle at the point of attack to allow Dustin Earnest, who played well replacing the injured Roddrick Muckelroy, to make the first-down saving tackle, giving Texas the ball at the Baylor 44, seeking to consolidate momentum.

The Plays

1st and 10 Baylor 44

Texas lines up in 11 personnel, with EBS on the right side of the line and Cody Johnson on the right side of Colt McCoy. John Chiles is the split end, while James Kirkendoll and Jordan Shipley are at the top of the screen at the slot and flanker positions, respectively. Baylor has two deep safeties, three down linemen, three linebackers, and five defensive backs on the field. Since the Bears are worried about not giving up deep passes, Texas has favorable conditions to run the ball.

Key Shot

Greg Davis dusts off the counter read play that was the staple of the now-defunct WildHorn formation. Once again, the strange thing about this play is that the pulling guard, in this case Michael Huey, seen on the ground here, tries to block the read man, the linebacker standing on the left side of the Texas line. McCoy pulls the ball, as the read man gets upfield and Huey tries to block him instead of leading into the hole, where Adam Ulatoski and the pulling tackle, Kyle Hix, both get their blocks. Once again, the pulling guard tries to block the read man -- the guy optioned off on the play, the point of option football. The end result is that the backside linebacker Joe Pawelek, who could have been blocked by Huey had he led into the hole, ends up making the stop for a two-yard gain.

There's no misdirection in the play, so the offense must account for the backside linebacker, but fails to do so because of the strange obsession with blocking a player already eliminated from the play. Add to it the fact that since Texas started using his play, the pulling player has never sucessfully blocked the read man and it just doesn't make any sense to design the play that way -- Texas might as well just take an offensive lineman off the field, because the scheme effectively eliminates them from having any chance at success.

2nd and 8 Baylor 42

Texas stays in their 11 personnel look, with Kirkendoll and Shipley now at the bottom of the screen and EBS on the left side of the line, with Johnson moving to the left side of McCoy. Notice that Baylor stays in the same defensive look, with two safeties deep and big cushions on the Texas receivers, as well as three down linemen and three linebackers.

Key Shot

Texas runs at the weak side of the Baylor line, where they have only a defensive tackle and a linebacker. It's the inside zone play and notice that Chris Hall moved the defensive tackle three yards off the line of scrimmage, but lost his balance and is now being shed by the defensive tackle, who will eventually make the play. Notice also that the play is pretty well blocked, except that Tray Allen, on the ground in front of the linebacker Pawelek, failed to execute his cut block in space. Johnson picks up three yards.

3rd and 5 Baylor 39

As has been the case for the last several weeks, Dan Buckner enters the game on obvious passing downs, coming in for EBS. Notice that Jordan Shipley is now at split end, with the Baylor defensive back coming up in press coverage. In their two-deep safety look, it appears that Baylor has bracket coverage on Shipley.

Key Shot

Actually, the Baylor cornerback is one-on-one with Shipley, as the left safety turns his shoulders to look inside at the snap -- a strange call by the Baylor defensive coordinator. Shipley beats the cornerback at the line of scrimmage and McCoy delivers a perfect strike to his long-time friend, giving him the opportunity to go up and get the football, which he does. The play goes for 21 yards and a first down.

1st and 10 Baylor 18

This is the only screenshot available, as FSN misses most of the play as the Longhorns go jet tempo. Texas did, however, appear to substitute, as that looks like EBS at the top left of the screen. It also looks like the Longhorns were man blocking on the play, as the offensive line moved the line of scrimmage about 4-5 yards downfield, allowing Johnson an easy gain of five yards on the play.

2nd and 5 Baylor 13

The Longhorns stay in 11 personnel, with EBS on the right side of the line and Shipley and Kirkendoll split wide at the top of the screen, with Chies at split end. Johnson is on the left side of McCoy. Baylor shifts out of their two-deep safety look for the first time on the drive, with a single-high safety on this play. The Bears do stay with their three-down look and a linebacker standing at the line of scrimmage, with either three other linebackers on the field or a safety lined up as a linebacker.

Key Shot

Given the nature of the Texas offense, it's highly possible, and in fact highly probable, that Texas comes to the line of scrimmage with a running play called. Since Baylor has seven men in the box, a look they haven't shown much in the early part of the game, McCoy probably checks into a quick throw outside, as there is no safety on the wide side of the field. The pass goes out to Shipley, who simply has to beat his man and receive a good block from Kirkendoll to pick up a nice gain. Shipley doesn't exactly beat his man, but gets by him enough to pick up seven yards. Much maligned for his blocking earlier in the season, Kirkendoll demonstrates the blocking effort that has helped him regain his starting role.

1st and Goal Baylor 6

Once again, the Longhorns go jet tempo and under center, while the FSN production crew misses the start of the play. It's the inside zone play and Baylor doesn't look like they were able to get set particularly well.

Key Shot

The Longhorn offensive line wins at the point of attack, as Hall does an excellent job of turning the shoulders of the defensive tackle in a combo block with Huey, then gets to the second level to block Pawelek. Johnson has a gaping hole to run through and simply has to knock Jordan Lake backwards, which he does, to find the end zone. Six yards on the touchdown run for Johnson and the Longhorns go up 14-0.

Final Totals

Six plays, 44 yards, 2:08 expired. McCoy completed two passes for 28 yards, both caught by Jordan Shipley, while picking up two yards on one carry. Three carries for 14 yards and a touchdown by Cody Johnson. Two good blocks by Hall and one good block on the perimeter by Kirkendoll.

Final Verdict

The Longhorns did an excellent job of consolidating momentum by marching down the field after stopping the Bears on fourth down. At this point in the game, after scoring on two of their first three possessions and stopping Baylor twice, once at the goalline on the interception by Aaron Williams and the second time on the aforementioned fourth-down stop, any hope of springing an upset is essentially gone from minds of the Baylor team. In fact, Art Briles commented after the game that this group, being relatively young and inexperienced, just doesn't respond particularly well to adversity.

The offensive philosophy of Greg Davis was also apparent on this drive -- take what the defense gives you. Last week, Chip Brown and Sean Adams were discussing Davis on their radio show and Adams commented that all of the coaches he had played for generally tried to attack opponent weaknesses: any weak players, back ups who came in to replace injured starters, etc. Davis, however, places a higher value on letting the defense dictate where the ball should go, hence all the short passes out to wide receivers that operate as part of the running game. On this drive, Davis ran the ball some against the three down linemen of Baylor, but also took advantage of single coverage against Shipley to throw a pass farther down the field. The other pass on the drive was most likely a checkdown by McCoy once Baylor started to run the ball. Though the philosophy may let opponents dictate what the offense will do at times, this drive shows just how successful it can be to run the ball against weaker fronts and pass the ball against stronger fronts.

This drive also emphasized that the jet tempo offense, which generally features running plays from under center, has a place in the offense, as the touchdown appeared to catch Baylor before they were properly aligned and allowed some rare drive blocking on Johnson's second run. The Longhorns ran a bootleg pass and tried to throw a quick screen from the jet tempo offense, so Davis is also cognizant of breaking tendency at times to keep teams from teeing off on the run when Texas speeds it up and gets under center.

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:15:23 -0000

As we enter the second game of what Gary Pinkel is calling Mizzou's second season, let's take a look at where Art Briles' Baylor Bears present a threat, and where they've been hurt worst by the loss of Robert Griffin to a season-ending knee injury.

It was supposed to be different this year. Thanks to Hot Tub Griffin III, Baylor was going to threaten for a bowl game. They were actually exciting to watch for once, and Hot Tub was Rock M Nation's unanimous favorite non-Mizzou player.

Okay, you twisted my arm...one last time this season...

One last moment of silence, please. The knee injury that robbed Baylor (and us) of nine games of Hot Tub greatness* has left Baylor lifeless on offense, and despite an increase in overall team speed on offense and a relatively salty defense, the Bears sit at 3-5, 0-4 in the Big 12. Their best chance at a Big 12 win--a trip to Iowa State--ended with an easy, 14-point loss. We have all died a little inside without Hot Tub in our lives...and Baylor has died on the outside.

* Just for effect, I should once again point out that Griffin PLAYED THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN STATE GAME (well, all of the game that the first-string played) with a torn ACL suffered on the first possession, attempted three rushes, and went 16-for-19 passing with 226 yards and three touchdowns. With a torn ACL. God I love that guy.

Alright, now that we're past that, it's time to look at the team Baylor does have, and the amount of threat that they represent for Mizzou at 1pm on Faurot Field.

Offense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

We're going to start with Baylor's overall "+" ranking, presented as we've presented data for every opponent, but this comes with a rather obvious disclaimer: Baylor's last five games without Griffin have shown a different type of team than the one that made up a chunk of these ratings. We'll take a look at Baylor, pre- and post-Griffin injury, after the initial spew of data.

Baylor Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	BU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.7 (40)	111.7 (35)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	104.7 (53)	104.8 (45)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	129.7 (29)	122.4 (33)

Rushing S&P+	133.2 (5)	102.7 (63)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (73)	118.3 (30)

Standard Downs S&P+	114.6 (33)	112.5 (35)
Passing Downs S&P+	123.6 (35)	115.0 (36)

Red Zone S&P+	128.6 (22)	104.4 (61)

Q1 S&P+	136.2 (15)	95.5 (77)
Q2 S&P+	106.0 (63)	135.8 (12)
Q3 S&P+	124.5 (26)	112.2 (41)
Q4 S&P+	105.4 (55)	115.8 (34)

1st Down S&P+	122.2 (20)	108.0 (49)
2nd Down S&P+	127.0 (22)	112.3 (41)
3rd Down S&P+	101.1 (74)	113.8 (38)

Line Yards+	105.9 (52)	101.6 (61)
Close Sack Rate+	95.7 (73)	93.3 (72)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	106.7 (57) / 108.3 (56)	101.9 (57) / 123.0 (37)

Analysis after the jump.

Now, let's look at the Baylor offense with and without Hot Tub III.

Baylor Offense: With & Without Griffin
Category	With Griffin	W/out Griffin
Close S&P+	120.3	89.1
Close SR+	111.1	92.2
Close PPP+	129.5	84.1

Rushing S&P+	169.5	74.0
Passing S&P+	89.0	94.3

Standard Downs S&P+	132.3	82.0
Passing Downs S&P+	79.8	113.4

Red Zone S&P+	150.7	102.8

Q1 S&P+	169.9	98.6
Q2 S&P+	77.1	96.4
Q3 S&P+	183.6	80.7
Q4 S&P+	87.6	96.7

First, it is worth noting that BU's actually a better passing team with Florence than with Griffin. That's not the biggest shocker in the world, but it does show that Florence is at least solid. And he's got a pretty deep WR corps (deep in that the #2 guy is about equal to the #6 guy) to work with, plus a nice, offensive-minded head coach. Also, for whatever reason, they're better in both Q2 and Q4 with Florence than they were with Griffin. You figure that one out, as I have no idea; of course, they are infinitely worse in Q1 and Q3, so usually the game is lost by the time Q4 (or even Q2) comes about, it appears. Mizzou might do Baylor some favors, as they are usually not particularly great in Q1, but it appears that Q3 is death for the Bears (strange, considering BU outscored Nebraska 10-0 in Q3 last week).

When Baylor Has the Ball...
Baylor Rushing	Advantage: Missouri
Baylor Passing	Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Baylor:	Q1
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2-Q4

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. Where applicable, I'll look at post-Griffin numbers.

Close Success Rate+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+ (though Passing Downs is close)
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st Down, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for Baylor...

Q1 S&P+
2nd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Without Griffin, Baylor has found the going a lot rougher in terms of utilizing their other weapons--WR Kendall Wright, RB Jay Finley, etc. They still have at least a decent offensive line, but that line will need to execute against Missouri's rapidly improving defensive line, and they will need to generate some early points, as Missouri assumes more and more of an advantage as the game wears on. And if Baylor gets handed any easy opportunities through turnovers or special teams, they simply must convert those opportunities into touchdowns.

Quarterback

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Nick Florence: 84-for-147 passing (57.1%), 942 yards (6.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT

So...any great nicknames for Nick Florence yet? He needs you now more than ever. Really, Florence hasn't been too bad passing the ball. He hasn't been great, but considering two of his four Big 12 starts have come against Oklahoma and Nebraska, two of the three best defenses in the conference (this week, they play the fourth-best, followed by the overall best next week against Texas), his numbers haven't been too bad. He is indeed just a redshirt freshman, and he was thrown into a no-win situation; granted he indeed has no wins, but he could be a lot worse. Let's just say that he's absolutely no worse than Blizzle Szyzzle, Blake Szymanski. No offense intended, Mr. Blizzle.

Running Back

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

Jay Finley: 42 carries, 261 yards (6.2 per carry), 2 TD; 4 receptions, 24 yards (6.0 per catch)
Jarred Salubi: 42 carries, 249 yards (5.9 per carry), 2 TD; 17 receptions, 134 yards (7.9 per catch)
Terrance Ganaway: 34 carries, 134 yards (3.9 per carry), 3 TD; 1 reception, 13 yards

Between Jay Finley and Jarred Salubi, Baylor has managed a pretty decent first-string RB this year. Unfortunately, most of their success came early in the season. Finley had 121 yards on eight carries against UConn, while Salubi had 131 in seven carries against Northwestern State. Since Griffin's injury, Finley has managed 49 yards in just 20 carries (2.5 per carry) while recovering from a sprained ankle and pulled quad, while Salubi has only been slightly better at 118 yards in 35 carries (3.4 per carry). Injuries haven't helped here, but the injury that hurt most of all was obviously Griffin's. Without the dual threat QB, teams are able to focus a lot more on the RBs.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Joining [Kendall] Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

WR Kendall Wright: 40 catches, 448 yards (11.2 per catch), 2 TD; 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3 per carry), 1 TD
WR David Gettis: 31 catches, 426 yards (13.7 per catch), 3 TD
WR Ernest Smith: 26 catches, 280 yards (10.8 per catch); 1 carry, 5 yards
WR Lanear Sampson: 15 catches, 130 yards (8.7 per catch), 1 TD

TE Justin Akers: 14 catches, 124 yards (8.9 per catch), 1 TD
TE Brad Taylor: 8 catches, 90 yards (11.2 per catch)

In Baylor's first game post-Griffin, Kendall Wright had 125 yards in nine catches against Kent State, suggesting there was life even with a dry hot tub. However, in the past four games he has managed only 16 catches for 134 yards and has scored zero touchdowns (of course, Baylor as a whole has scored only four, so that's not saying a lot). Justin Akers (against OSU) and David Gettis (against Nebraska) have stepped up recently, but until more than one weapon shows up for a given game, Baylor's whole aerial attack is grounded. Wow, I did not intend that weak pun there. C'est la vie.

Offensive Line

Now [Jason] Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

Looking at Baylor's Line Yardage and Sack Rates, you get the distinct impression that this isn't a particularly good or bad line. In fact, with rankings around 60th in all categories, you could say the line is actually perfectly average. Unfortunately for Baylor, Mizzou's defensive line has been improving significantly in conference play and is quite likely well above average right now, especially with Aldon Smith surging and a much less mobile quarterback looking for open receivers. This matchup has gone from a draw to a distinct Mizzou advantage in recent weeks.

---

Defense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Baylor Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	BU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	100.0 (60)	106.2 (57)
Close Success Rate+	94.2 (84)	103.6 (58)
Close PPP+	109.0 (44)	112.8 (56)

Rushing S&P+	86.3 (98)	102.1 (67)
Passing S&P+	118.4 (29)	110.8 (51)

Standard Downs S&P+	99.5 (63)	105.0 (60)
Passing Downs S&P+	109.1 (47)	109.7 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	122.7 (32)	70.7 (114)

Q1 S&P+	89.0 (86)	117.9 (50)
Q2 S&P+	102.5 (63)	100.2 (73)
Q3 S&P+	109.8 (45)	111.9 (52)
Q4 S&P+	101.1 (61)	102.4 (65)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (58)	102.6 (66)
2nd Down S&P+	95.2 (75)	106.6 (64)
3rd Down S&P+	109.1 (50)	118.9 (38)

Line Yards+	87.1 (101)	101.3 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	89.9 (78)	173.9 (16)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	79.1 (93) / 115.6 (45)	243.4 (8) / 124.7 (41)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage(ish): Baylor
Best Time for Baylor:	Q2-Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q1, Q4

With Gabbert looking much, much healthier against Colorado, we can at least tentatively put an end to the "injured Gabbert" period. So, since we did the "pre-and-post" treatment for Baylor, should we do the same for Mizzou? We know that Mizzou's offensive stats plummeted with Gabbert's ankle sprain, but we also know that the defenses Mizzou faced at that time were much better. Luckily, we have "+" numbers to account for the difference in competition level! So here are the numbers for when Blaine Gabbert had one and two healthy ankles (the "one healthy ankle" stats are for the last three quarters of the Nebraska game and all of the Texas and OSU games):

Missouri Offense: Healthy vs Injured Gabbert
Category	Healthy #11	Injured #11
Close S&P+	107.1	94.3
Close SR+	101.2	95.3
Close PPP+	114.1	93.1

Rushing S&P+	85.4	117.1
Passing S&P+	119.3	81.6

Standard Downs S&P+	103.4	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	90.9	98.2

Red Zone S&P+	70.6	108.4

Q1 S&P+	93.7	116.3
Q2 S&P+	91.3	107.2
Q3 S&P+	108.2	31.5
Q4 S&P+	101.7	81.4

Mizzou was significantly better at both rushing and red zone offense when Gabbert was hurt, but I think there is a bit of noise in the statistics there. Mizzou got a lot of credit for the touchdown they scored on their lone red zone trip against Texas, and that balanced out their craptastic execution against OSU. Either way, that's a damn small sample size. Meanwhile, the rushing success didn't seem to have anything to do with Gabbert limping around--it was seemingly more a result of Missouri's offensive line simply blocking better (and, potentially, their running backs running better).

Either way, we're definitely working with a small sample size here, but there are some conclusions that can be reached: 1) while Missouri's second-half execution against Colorado left something (okay, a lot) to be desired, they are still a much, much better second-half team with a healthy Gabbert. It's almost as if Missouri was able to disguise Gabbert's injury with good game-planning, but by the second half, they were out of tricks. Now, with Gabbert throwing more accurate passes and pulling down a couple of keepers, Missouri has a lot more options. Also, and this is some incredible statistical analysis here, 2) Missouri is a much better passing team when their quarterback can actually hit his targets.

With that in mind, let's look at Missouri's "healthy Gabbert" advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+
Sack Rates+

Baylor's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2 S&P+

With a healthy Gabbert, the passing game seems to be a draw, as do Q3 and Q4 S&P+ and 1st Down S&P+.

Defensive Line

Beyond [Penn State transfer Phil] Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

DE/DT Jason Lamb: 21.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 2 Blocked Kicks
DT Trey Bryant: 15.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 3 QBH
DE Zac Scotton: 12.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Phil Taylor: 11.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 QBH, 2 Blocked Kicks
DE Tracy Robertson: 10.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 3 QBH

So...has vaunted transfer Phil Taylor actually made a difference? Baylor's pass defense has actually been pretty solid, but their rushing defense has been horrible. If Mizzou's offensive line was able to open up holes for Derrick Washington and company and protect Blaine Gabbert from Colorado pass rushers, there's nothing saying they won't be able to do the same (and better) against Baylor. Maybe Taylor really is a difference-maker, but the rest of the line has been just terrible? Jason Lamb, who has been playing at Baylor since Grant Teaff was coach, has put up some decent numbers--as good as those of Mizzou's Jaron Baston and Dominique Hamilton--but he's pretty much it. If he's not making a nice play, then Baylor's relying on the LBs.

Linebackers

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Joe Pawelek: 52.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 2 PBU
Antonio Jones: 47.0 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
Antonio Johnson: 41.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU
Chris Francis: 21.0 tackles
Elliot Coffey: 20.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Earl Patin: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

I really was pretty impressed with Joe Pawelek last year, but while he's been rock solid this year, it doesn't seem like he's been quite the playmaker I was expecting. He's still good, though, and the Two Antonios have combined with Pawelek to form what is certainly a decent unit. As I put it in the offseason, Baylor has struggled in certain areas (i.e. run defense), but they're not the reason why. And they're fast enough to do decent things in pass coverage.

Secondary

Jordan Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

S Jordan Lake: 48.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF
S Jeremy Williams: 25.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
CB Clifton Odom: 22.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 4 PBU
S Byron Landor: 22.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBU
CB Tim Atchison: 21.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 PBU
CB Chance Casey: 18.5 tackles, 2 INT, 1 QBH, 4 PBU
S Mike Hicks: 12.5 tackles

If Pawelek hasn't been quite what I thought this year, Jordan Lake REALLY hasn't been what I thought. He was a pretty strong, disruptive player in 2008; this year, he's just a tackler. One forced fumble, one tackle for loss, and no interceptions? Huh. In all, though, Baylor's pass defense really has been pretty decent this year; I mean, ranking 47th isn't amazing by any means, but with a sieve for a run defense, the secondary has been the least of their problems. Can you tell I haven't at all been impressed with their defensive line?

Special Teams

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Punt Returns Rank: 22nd (Krys Buerck: 12 Returns, 7.5 Avg)
Net Punting Rank: 89th (Derek Epperson: 45.2 Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 39th (Terrance Williams: 13 Returns, 26.0 Avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 44th

Field Goals: 4-for-8 (Long: 41) (113th)
PATs: 17-for-18

If the special teams play involves a Baylor player with the ball in his hands, running upfield, then Baylor's special teams unit is pretty solid. If it involves somebody in a Baylor uniform kicking...not so much. Derek Epperson ranks in the nation's top 20 in overall punt average, but their net average has been hurt by two blocked punts, and they're giving up almost 17 yards per return (with one touchdown). Ouch. And Ben Parks has been far from great as place-kicker. But hey, Krys Buerck and Terrance Williams are bright spots. That's something.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over. With Blaine Gabbert's arm, I love the idea of going deep quite a few times, but with the advantages Missouri will have in other regards, Missouri really just needs to avoid Passing Downs disaster, and they should be alright. It's rare one of my keys is "stay relatively conservative and don't do anything stupid," but that does appear to be the case here. I like to surprise myself sometimes.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. (SPREAD DOESN'T WORK NEED FULLBACK RAWR!!!!! ET CETERA. Just thought I'd get that out of the way so that doesn't come up and I don't have to point out that Missouri's red zone offense has been just fine in the spread the last few years.) Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

Prediction

Clearly this is Missouri's game to lose. It is Baylor at home, after all. However, even without Robert Griffin, this Baylor team has more weapons and team speed than previous Bears iterations, and if Missouri lets them hang around, loses the turnover battle, gets some bad bounces, allows a big play or two, etc., Baylor can absolutely win this game. As long as Missouri plays average or better, they should move to 6-3 and bowl eligibility. The numbers say Mizzou by 16.5, so we'll say Mizzou 30, Baylor 13. Run the ball well, rip off a big play or two, don't commit any awful turnovers, and let Mizzou's defensive weapons--Sean Weatherspoon, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, etc.--make the plays they can make.

Revisiting Baylor

Husker Mike — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 11:53:20 -0000

More photos » by Rod Aydelotte - AP

When Robert Griffin tore his ACL against Northwestern State last month, it also tore apart the dreams of a breakthrough season for the Bears. (AP Photo/Waco Tribune Herald, Rod Aydelotte)

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Baylor certainly started season on the right note, going 3-1 in the non-conference schedule including a 24-21 upset of Wake Forest in the season opener. But then the Bears took a turn for the worst when Robert Griffin tore his ACL. This month, Baylor has only scored 24 points in three games, a number that looks unlikely to change much with the Blackshirts coming for a visit this weekend.

It's not just the loss of Robert Griffin that has "da Bearsh" reeling. Running back Jay Finley has been injured along with defensive tackle Phil Taylor. In that light, it might seem irrelevant to look at our season preview of Baylor, but let's review it again.

During the first twelve years of the Big XII, Baylor established themselves as the doormat of the conference in football. Some even suggested that Baylor be removed from the Big XII, feeling it was hopeless for the Bears to ever be able to compete. Certainly it's unclear whether Baylor would have ever been invited to join the Big XII if it wasn't for the efforts former Texas governor (and Baylor alumn) Ann Richards. But a funny thing happened in 2008. Baylor football showed signs of life.

Baylor hired former Houston coach Art Briles to take over for Guy Morriss, and convinced his prized recruit, quarterback Robert Griffin to sign with the Bears. The season started in typical Baylor fashion, losing 41-13 to Baylor. But two weeks later, the Bears caught the notice of the nation by walloping Washington State 45-17 as Robert Griffin ran for 217 yards. Baylor would go on to finish 4-8 and break out of the Big XII doghouse by defeating Iowa State and Texas A&M rather handily. From that squad, the Bears return 18 starters in 2009; a scary proposition for the rest of the conference.

Robert Griffin returns at quarterback after a stellar true freshman season, being named the Big XII offensive freshman of the year. A dual threat wizard, he rushed for 843 yards and 13 touchdowns, and threw for 2091 yards, 15 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. He set an NCAA freshman record by throwing 209 passes in a row without an interception, nearly breaking the Big XII mark of 213. That's downright scary. Then consider his speed: he's a legitimate track star who hopes to run in the 2012 London Olympics.

That's freaky scary. I guess for Nebraska's sake, it's probably better to have Baylor on the schedule for Griffin's freshman and sophomore seasons, as opposed to his junior and senior seasons.

But Baylor isn't a one-trick pony; running back Jay Finley did outrush Griffin last season, adding seven touchdowns to the mix. He'll ensure balance in the Bears offense for his junior season. Griffin's primary targets in the passing game will be sophomore Kendall Wright, with 649 yards and five touchdowns last season, and senior David Gettis, a former track star in his own right.

Up front, the Bears return two starters, senior right guard James Barnard and senior center J.D. Walton. They'll miss all-American left tackle Jason Smith, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams with the #2 pick this spring. Two junior college transfers will take over at tackle, junior right tackle Marquis Franklin and junior left tackle Danny Watkins. Watkins is a 24 year old Canadian who took up football a couple of years ago and became a junior college all-American.

If you were paying attention to the preseason all-Big XII teams, you might have been surprised that Baylor had more first team selections than Nebraska did. Here's the scary thing: they're all on defense. Up front, the Bears will be led by senior defensive end Jason Lamb and junior defensive tackle Phil Taylor. Taylor, who transferred from Penn State after getting into an on-campus fight, was named preseason newcomer of the year.

All three linebackers return, including all-Big XII senior middle linebacker Joe Pawelek, who had 128 tackles and six interceptions last season. Bookmarking Pawelek are the Antonios: senior Antonio Jones and junior Antonio Johnson.

In the secondary, two part time starters return at cornerback in juniors Antareis Bryan and Tim Atchison, but the star is senior all-Big XII safety Jordan Lake, who merely added 97 tackles and three interceptions last season. Senior Jeremy Williams will man the other safety spot.

Last year's Baylor squad got people's attention by scaring Connecticut, Nebraska, and Missouri last season. Just before Thanksgiving, the Bears beat A&M, thus ensuring that A&M can now be referred to as the "new Baylor" of the Big XII, since the Bears are no longer the conference doormat. This year, they get UConn and the Huskers at home. The schedule sets up a scary Halloween matchup for the Huskers with the Bears, who might finally be shaking the "Bad News Bears" reputation this season.

Poll

What happens when the Huskers visit Baylor on Halloween?

14%

The Bears go down in flames, much like David Koresh's compound

47 votes

54%

Just like last year, the Huskers find a way to win this game

177 votes

19%

Baylor finally breaks through and wins a close one

65 votes

11%

Baylor wins in a blowout, meaning that every Big XII team has embarrased Nebraska this decade.

37 votes

326 votes | Poll has closed

Week 7 Wrap-Up

Mark Kieffer — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 16:53:02 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2 months ago: Iowa State quarterback Austen Arnaud (4) celebrates with teammates Derrick Catlett, center, Alex Alvarez (77) and Jake Williams, right, after Cetlett's touchdown reception during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009, in Ames, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Final - 10.17.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
Baylor Bears	3	0	0	7	10
Iowa St. Cyclones	0	14	10	0	24

Complete Coverage >

We done did it! ISU finally won a Big 12 game, the first in nearly two years (1-11 last twelve Big 12 games now). Below are some thoughts on the game:

What I liked:

We won. I know it was a depleted Baylor team, but we won a conference game. Hopefully we can pick up a couple more, to shut up all the a-holes that predicted we'd win 1-2 games, and go o-fer in the conference again. We picked up our first Big 12 win since our win over Colorado on November 10th, 2007. We are just past the halfway point of the season with a winning record. I'd love to see if this team could find a way to get to 6 wins this year.
ISU rushed for 240 yards. It started off kind of slow, but between A-Rob, Tiller (yes, Tiller), Arnaud, and Schwartz, ISU picked up a lot of rushing yards this game.
Winning the turnover battle. ISU was +2, as we picked off Baylor 3 times, and got picked once.
Tiller's running ability -- outside the tackles. The guy is quick. I saw it in the Spring Game, and we saw more of it last night. Inside the tackles, not so much. The guy is skinnier than most of our WRs. He does not have the ability to fight for that extra yard or two, simply because just isn't as strong.
Baylor's sense of urgency on the first possession in the second half. So Baylor is down 14-3 with 13 or 14 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, on their own 32 with a 4th and 1 situation. Easy call here, punt the ball right? NOPE! Instead, Baylor goes for it on 4th and 1, doesn't make it, and it sets up an ISU field goal. Just way too early to be thinking of going for it, but I guess it says a lot about what the coach thought of his team's chances of getting back in the game.

What I didn't like:

Getting off to a slow start. The first quarter was pretty unimpressive from both sides. Just bad offensive execution, and some bad defense as well. Often times the first handful of plays offensivley are scripted and/or they are plays that you worked on a lot that week. It'd be nice to get an opening TD or something like that.
Bad tackling. Baylor had to abandon the run due to getting down early, but their RBs picked up many extra yards (especially in that first quarter) due to mistackling. The same goes for their WRs on the short passes. I think we did a better job of it as the game went on, but how we started could have really hurted us if we were playing a better offense.
Arnaud's interception. Not trying to throw him under the bus or anything like that, but when you have the chance to go up 14-3, and you throw a pick in the end zone, giving the other team enough time to go down the field to make it a 1 possession game, it's not good. Fortunatley, Baylor's offense fizzled about midfield, but it could've been 14-10, or 14-6, with Baylor getting the ball first in the third quarter. A better team, may have hurt us more off the turnover.
Baylor's weak ass offense. Honestly, this was the weakest shit I've seen from a Big 12 team in a while. The story of their offense was screen passes. At first they worked as ISU had issues with tackling, but eventually the effectiveness was lost. Maybe part of this was due to their QB's lack of ability, but there are plenty of holes in the secondary down the field. Now, I like short passes, but you have to mix it up with taking some shots down the field to keep the defense honest. As an ISU fan, I liked this, but I think there was some poor play calling with Baylor.
Missing too many field goals. The first one, I won't hold against Mahoney as it was a 50 yarder, which I think is in his range but one can't look at is as an automatic in college football at all. The other two were from 35 and 30 yards away, however. I think on all of these they were too wide. I know nothing about kicking, but I hope he figures it out. Against better teams, we may need those 6 to 9 points we left on the field.
Lack of QB pressure on defense. ISU had one official sack, and it was a coverage sack as their QB had a lot of time to throw, but simply no one was open. There were some other times they brought down the QB, but in the stats, it just goes as a run for negative yards. Still, those were mostly due to the QB having 4+ seconds to throw, couldn't find anyone, ran around and got brought down. Against KU we saw what giving too much time to a QB can do to you. We did have 5 QB hurries vs. 0 last week against KU, so perhaps we are improving, but it isn't as much as I'd like to see. As long was the opposing QB has plenty of time, the good ones will hurt us. Fortunatley, Szymanski is not a good QB.

I am happy that the team won, but this was a game that could have been a blowout had the execution been better. We need to play better than this if we are going to beat a Nebraska.

Notes:

Alexander Robinson appeared to have reinjured himself yet again, and it didn't look good. Getting all the way back from an injured groin takes a good amount of rest. I just hope he's alright.
Austen Arnaud left the game in the third quarter due to a bruised throwing hand. This is why Tiller played for almost the entire second half.

Props:

After suspending for a week, I've decided to bring my props back:

Marquis Hamilton - 9 catches for 97 yards, including hanging on to a big hit from Jordan Lake coming across the middle. In my pregame writeup, I talked about our receivers holding onto the ball coming across the middle because Lake is the kind of hard-hitting safety that will make you pay.
Josh Lenz - 7 catches for 43 yards, with no drops either. I'm just impressed that this guy is finding his way on the field and making plays. Before the season had started, I thought no way he'd see some time, but he has, and done pretty well.
Derrick Catlett - 5 catches for 52 yards, and 1 TD
Jerome Tiller - 7 of 8 passing for 48 yards, and 10 rushes for 74 yards and 1 TD. Took advantage of having the chance to play for almost half of the game. Still has a lot to work on, but we didn't lose anything by having Tiller out there, which is great to have in a backup.
Fred Garrin - 7 tackles, 2 interceptions. Yes the balls were thrown right to him, but I see many linebackers dropping these balls. Both of these were as Baylor was starting to get into Cyclone territory and were drive-killers for them.
Leonard Johnson - 5 tackles (one for loss), 1 interception. Made a nice jumping catch near the sideline on a deep pass to prevent the big play from Baylor.

Now the attention turns to Nebraska next week. Nebraska is the better team in my mind, but who knows what will happen? The Big 12 just saw Colorado beat KU (and ISU almost beat KU), and K-State put up 62 points against aTm.

Week 7 Preview: Baylor

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 16:30:28 -0000

Big game for ISU. Back at the Jack, homecoming, under the lights, with the chance to pickup a much needed win.

The Basics:

Records: ISU (3-3, 0-2), Baylor (3-2, 0-1)
Date: Saturday, October 17th, 2009
Location: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Time: 6:00pm CDT
TV: None
Line: ISU -2.5, O/U 53.5 , though I've seen lines as low as -1

At A Glance:

ISU, coming off of two close losses, now return to Jack Trice hoping to get their first conference win of the season (and the first since 2007). Baylor, a trendy pick to make a bowl game prior to the season, has struggled this year, and their chances to become bowl eligible took a shot when QB Robert Griffin tore his ACL. If either team hopes to make it to 6 wins this year, they will need to win this game. In reality, neither team may get to 6 wins, but this week is all about keeping these hopes alive. I think that will make for this to be a good game that could go either way.

Things You Should Know, Keys to the Game, and My Prediction After The Jump!

Things You Should Know:

Coming off of a close loss against Kansas, Cyclone fans might be too confident about this game. Bill C at Rock M Nation projects ISU winning by 0.1, meaning it's a deadlock game. Being favored by 1.5-2.5 points, is actually not a favor at all. I think on average the home team gives 3-3.5 points. With ISU being a 1.5-2.5 point favorite at home, means that if this were at Baylor, ISU would likely be a 4.5-5.5 point underdog. In short, Bill C thinks it's an even matchup because I do not believe he takes homefield into the consideration, while Vegas thinks that Baylor is slightly better, but gives the slight nod to ISU due to the game being played in Ames.
Baylor's rush defense is a bit misleading. Baylor does have the 4th worst rushing defense in the nation in terms of total rushing yards, allowing 180.8 yards/game. At the same time, they are 18th in the nation in rushing yard attempts against per game (41.8 rushing attempts/game). They are 42nd in rushing yards allowed per attempt at 4.3 yards/rush. 4.3 yards/rush is still relatively high, and I'm not saying we won't be able to run against them
The passing game will be more challenged compared to the past few weeks. While Baylor is ranked 74th in passing yards allowed/game at 234.5 yards/game, those are better numbers than Kansas State and Kansas. Everyone was excited how ISUwas able to pass last week. This week, we will get a better idea of whether the passing game has improved, or if the previous pass defenses were just really bad. It's probably a combination of both, but I will be interested in seeing how they perform in the passing game.
Arnaud should get plenty of time to throw compared to last week. ISU is still tied for first in the nation in sacks allowed/game, but Arnaud did get hurried quite a bit from Kansas' front four, especially when it mattered. Baylor is 70th in sacks/game at 1.8 sacks/game, so Arnaud should get enough time to make the needed throws.
ISU's receivers need to hang onto the ball when going across the middle. Jordan Lake is a big hitter and can force fumbles. The guy is a bigtime playmaker on defense.
Iowa State needs to wrap up Baylor's running backs. Baylor has two running backs and 1 receiver that average 7 or more yards/carry in Jay Finley, Jarred Salubi, and Kendall Wright. Finley and Salubi have broken off runs of 70 yards or more this season, and have big play ability in addition to Wright.
In general, Iowa State's defense needs to key on Kendall Wright. He has caught 26 passes for 330 yards and 2 TDs and rushed the ball 15 times for 106 yards and 1 TD. He also has taken snaps out of the Wildcat (Baylor calls it the Bearcat, but I think that's silly since there is a college team called the Bearcats and they are in Cincinatti). Also you may remember that last year Wright tore up ISU, catching 7 passes for 132 yards and 2 TDs, including a 51 yarder that made ESPN's Top 10. Don't think that Baylor won't try to get the ball in their biggest playmaker's hands.
If ISU takes the lead going into the 4th quarter, I like their chances. Baylor has only scored 7% of their points (11 total) in the 4th quarter. Their best quarter, however, is the third, where they have scored 36% of their points (55 total). ISU's best quarter is close between the 2nd (31%) and 3rd (30%) quarter. In general, ISU's scoring is more evenly distributed than Baylor's.

Keys To The Game:

Put pressure on the QB. ISU's pass defense is 91st in the Nation at 253.6. A lot of this is due to the fact that the opposing QB has had time to find the hole in the zone and hit the open receiver. Our D-Line needs to step up.
Take care of the football. While this was improved last week (0 turnovers), ISU still averages 2.4 giveaways/game. Hopefully this continues.
Better Special Teams in all phases. I think we've seen the past two weeks how important Special Teams are in football. A lot of times it's a play or two in the special teams that determines a game between two close opponents. The team needs to be more solid here, as you do not want to leave points on the board. These botched plays really give momentum to the other team, and obviously you do not want that.

Prediction:

I think it's going to be close. ISU is a slightly better team, but Baylor has a better coach. I think it's going to come down to a play or two that whichever way it goes will likely be the winner. Both teams will score because the defenses as a whole are not that good, and game conditions sound like they will be fine by kickoff. I'll go with ISU 30, Baylor 27.

How do you see this one playing out?

Poll

Who wins this game?

Iowa State

30 votes

Baylor

6 votes

36 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:15:09 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

This day had to come eventually. This is the first MU-NU BTBS post I've ever written following a Mizzou loss. What's striking about this set of data is...well, how predictable it is. No interesting developments, no secrets regarding why Mizzou lost...it was exactly what you thought. What's most interesting is how much this game has affected the "+" rankings of these two teams. Thanks to the teams' defenses completely shutting down relatively potent offense (with a major tip of the cap to the rain), Nebraska moved from 19th overall to 4th...and Mizzou moved from 23rd to 20th. The statistics raised questions about Mizzou's offense (now ranked 54th overall) but solidifed Mizzou's defensive numbers (now 16th overall) to the point where their overall ranking actually went up. Meanwhile, Nebraska now ranks 33rd on offense and a mighty 6th on defense. Anyhoo...to the numbers...

	Nebraska (27)	Mizzou (12)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	27.7%	41.0%
Leverage %	55.4%	62.8%

TOTAL
EqPts	21.2	11.1
Close Success Rate	30.8%	25.6%
Close PPP	0.33	0.14
Close S&P	0.633	0.399

RUSHING
EqPts	8.4	5.8
Close Success Rate	35.5%	33.3%
Close PPP	0.27	0.18
Close S&P	0.625	0.510
Line Yards/carry	2.15	2.32

PASSING
EqPts	12.8	5.3
Close Success Rate	26.5%	20.0%
Close PPP	0.38	0.12
Close S&P	0.641	0.317
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 4.6%	0.0% / 8.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	36.1%	32.7%
PPP	0.29	0.14
S&P	0.654	0.468

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	24.1%	13.8%
PPP	0.37	0.14
S&P	0.608	0.282

TURNOVERS
Number	2	3
Turnover Pts	9.7	16.3
Turnover Pts Margin	+5.6	-5.6

Q1 S&P	0.506	0.361
Q2 S&P	0.331	0.492
Q3 S&P	0.159	0.266
Q4 S&P	1.578	0.463

1st Down S&P	0.577	0.321
2nd Down S&P	0.368	0.342
3rd Down S&P	1.064	0.529

Projected Pt. Margin	+15.6	-15.6
Actual Pt. Margin	+15	-15

Reactions

Let's just throw this out there, right up front:

After Three Quarters

NU: 22.4% / 0.10 PPP / 0.324 S&P / 4.9 EqPts
MU: 22.4% / 0.15 PPP / 0.377 S&P / 8.9 EqPts

Fourth Quarter

NU: 56.3% / 1.02 PPP / 1.578 S&P / 16.2 EqPts
MU: 35.0% / 0.11 PPP / 0.463 S&P / 2.3 EqPts

It was every bit as bad as we thought it was, especially taking into account the 11.7 EqPts' worth of Mizzou turnovers. Mizzou won the first three quarters by a projected 10.1 EqPts (and, as you know, 12 actual points) and got bombed in the fourth quarter by a projected 25.6.

More thoughts (and all of these offensive numbers do come with a "It was raining buckets, and clearly the offenses were affected by that" disclaimer):

It makes me feel pretty vindicated about my system when the Projected and Actual margins end up dead-on. Of course, it makes me feel less happy about this when it comes at Missouri's expense.
Mizzou dominated field position in this one, thanks to Jake Harry (and Nebraska's inability to handle Jake Harry's lefty boots). But thanks to penalties and the NU defensive line, they could do little with the field position advantage.
With a Passing Downs defense as good as Nebraska's, Leverage % (the percentage of a team's plays that took place on Standard Downs) was going to be huge for Mizzou. It was--63% is very much on the low end of the spectrum, and Mizzou's offensive performance was putrid because of it. Between iffy running and holding penalties, Mizzou spent almost half of their offensive snaps in Passing Downs...and well, NU's defense is #2 in Passing Downs S&P+. You can do the math on that one.
Turnovers were killers for Mizzou, but only so much. What hurt them the most was potentially not recovering another muffed punt--in the end there were seven total fumbles and Mizzou recovered three of them. Get a fourth, get another three points on the board (since I don't have confidence that we could have scored seven), and things may have changed in Q4...only, Mizzou lost by 15, so maybe not.

We heard throughout the week what Nebraska was going to try to do on defense: drop as many as possible into coverage and rely on their defensive line to generate pressure. Here's what RPT had to say about that in last week's Roundtable:

I know we're all pointing to the Cotton Bowl and laughing and waiting to shred the defense, but I don't think it's a terrible move. Yeah, the NU D-Line has done nothing against Missouri in the past, but the MU O-Line had been far more consistent in those seasons and the NU D-Line hadn't been this developed. Nebraska can afford to play it like Bowling Green -- just hang back and take away the deep stuff, and trust your D-Line to get enough penetration on running plays to disrupt the flow.

Nebraska successfully removed the deep ball from Mizzou's equation (the bomb to Jared Perry before half being the exception, of course), and it meant Mizzou had to basically go with outs and slants. As I mentioned to The Beef during the game, Blaine Gabbert is a lot like Barry Bonds (resist the urge to make steroid jokes) in one specific way: Bonds' bat speed was so much better than everybody else's, that he could wait an extra split second to zone in on what the pitch was and where it was going and crush it. Well, Gabbert's arm is so strong that he can get away with a little bit of telegraphing his passes and still deliver the ball before the defender can get there. Except...sprain one of his ankles on the second possession of the game, and he can't step into passes and deliver them with as much zip. He couldn't get away with telegraphing passes anymore, and suddenly those out routes were being broken up (or in one case, picked off). When he leaned on the slant instead, Donkey Kong Suh was able to anticipate it and picked one off. Nebraska intentionally took away the deep ball and unintentionally (I assume) took away Gabbert's ankle and arm strength, and that made for a deadly combination.

More after the jump.

Three Positives

Mizzou's Front Seven. Rain disclaimers aside, it should be noted that Mizzou's line yardage totals were actually better than Nebraska's. They weren't good, but it does point to how well Mizzou's front seven played. And really, the secondary did well too, aside from two specific fourth-quarter passes to Niles Paul. On one, they bit on the slant and left him open deep; on the next, they double-covered a fade route and completely misplayed the ball. Both resulted in touchdowns. But either way, the Nebraska running game was nonexistant until Roy Helu's junk-time 41-yarder with a minute left. Until that carry, Helu had 16 carries for 50 yards and was a non-factor.

On top of that, Mizzou was also harassing Zac Lee with regularity. He was only sacked once, but he was hurried into poor throws multiple times.
Special Teams. It bears mentioning just how much of a liability we worried special teams may be for Missouri this year, and while the kick return game has generated next to nothing this year (Mizzou is 90th in the country with just a 20.1-yard return average), it is staggering to think of where Mizzou might be right now without the production of Grant Ressel and Jake Harry IV. There might be a better kicker in the conference than Grant Ressel (NU's Alex Henery, for one), but there is not a better punter. Mizzou is 2nd in the country in Net Punting (0.4 yards behind Georgia for 1st) and has consistently won the field position battle because of it. With a young, inconsistent (but still dangerous) offense, that is such a huge asset. Mizzou was great in 2007 despite their punting (113th in Net Punting)--this year, to the extent that they will be successful, it will be due in part to punting, and to special teams overall.

(Also, now's a good time to give a shout out to Carl Gettis, who appears to be turning into a pretty damn strong punt returner.)
This one may sound strange, but Commitment to the Running Game. It's odd to talk about this as a positive considering how ineffective the running game was, but...that's sort of the point. In previous years, Dave Christensen and the Mizzou offensive coaches seemed to quickly give up on the run if it was not working. Part of that was certainly due to Chase Daniel and his accuracy and decision-making. In fact, Gary Pinkel has already mentioned this year that they are sticking with the running game in part because Gabbert is still getting his sea legs, and they don't want him to have to carry the entire offensive burden. But as Dave Matter pointed out a couple of days ago, when Nebraska had all the momentum (and, suddenly, the lead) in the fourth quarter and Mizzou had to respond, they ran the ball. Whether or not is just to protect their quarterback, they are more committed to the run this year than at any time since Brad Smith was quarterback (and even then, we never did think they were committed enough considering their assets), and long-term that might be a very good thing. Unless...you know...the run-blocking never does get better. Hey, speaking of which...

Three Negatives

Yeah, the Running Game. Nebraska has the best defensive line Missouri will see this year--it is important to keep that in mind. Of course, it is also important to realize that the reason Missouri struggled on the ground against NU was different than against Nevada or Illinois. Against Nevada and Illinois, the defense definitively decided to take away the running game, and they succeeded. The Huskers, on the other hand, decided to take away the pass...and stopped the run anyway. I am four quarters from going from "worried about the running game" to "petrified." OSU likes to attack on defense, and they have good LBs, but their line is not good enough to take away the run by itself like Nebraska's was ... at least it shouldn't be. In theory there will be some holes for Derrick Washington this time around. If there aren't, or if he doesn't take enough advantage of them, then we've got some serious issues.
Penalties. This is just strange. Twice this year, Missouri has faced a team dedicated to stopping the pass and not rushing more than four most of the time--Nebraska and Bowling Green. In those two games, Missouri has been called for SEVEN holding penalties (and 12 penalties overall). Against the three teams theoretically attempting to stop the run first, and therefore shooting gaps and keeping players closer to the line of scrimmage? Two holding penalties. The fewer people they have to block near the line, the more they hold. You would assume that this might have something to do with how long Blaine Gabbert holds onto the ball to look for an open receiver, right? Wrong. Three of last week's four holds came on running plays. You figure it out, because I can't. And because of that, I have no idea if it is good or bad that OSU is (I think) pre-disposed to attacking the line and the quarterback. They have an iffy line but good linebackers, so they'll likely be attempting to attack from all sorts of different angles...they will have a different plan of attack than Nebraska, but will that matter if we're only holding on running plays? Ugh. Just makes no sense.
We've covered the on-the-field negatives plenty at this point, so I'm switching gears with this one. The Fans. Yeah, I said it. (And yeah, I'm going to overgeneralize based solely on the people around me at the game.) Two years ago, for an 8:30 kickoff, our fans were amazing. They were well-lubricated, but not too well-lubricated. They were at the perfect level of happy and excitable. Thursday night, quite a few around us were past the point of no return by the time the game started. At least three of them spent a good portion of the first half squatted in "Am I going to puke? I'm not sure...but I wish things would stop spinning" mode. Just not good game management on the part of the fanbase. I'm ashamed.

And then there's the fact that losing to Nebraska brings out the absolute worst in our fans...even more than losing to Kansas, I think. But I have something to say specifically to the dude who was whining and yelling the entire fourth quarter. The guy who a) complained that we weren't running Blaine Gabbert enough (despite the fact that he was hobbling around on one leg...then again, this guy probably didn't notice that, since he didn't enter the stadium until the second quarter), b) raised holy hell when we didn't have Gabbert run on 3rd-and-12 before kicking the field goal that put us up 12-0, c) said repeatedly "That's why you go for the touchdown! That's why you go for the touchdown!!!!!" after Nebraska scored twice...in reference to the fact that we were throwing on said 3rd-and-12 instead of running our one-legged quarterback...ON THIRD-AND-F***ING-TWELVE. Because that would have shown that we were truly trying to score a touchdown, instead of, you know, throwing into the endzone. Anyway, to that guy, I say, you're a freaking idiot, and thank you for leaving early.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

First-and-10

Nebraska's offense is at its best on first downs, and if they are gashing Mizzou for chunks of 5, 6, or 7 yards, then they will be tough to beat. Meanwhile, if Missouri doesn't succeed on first downs, then they are playing into NU's hands--the Huskers' defense is great on Passing Downs. It's probably always the case, but win first downs, win this game...especially if the weather is bad.

Mizzou's defense absolutely won the first downs battle, and it was a major reason why they shut out Nebraska for three quarters. Of course, Mizzou's offense more than negated the defensive effort.

Derrick Washington (and De'Vion Moore...and Kendial Lawrence...and the hosses up front)

If NU really is going to rely on a dime package to get the job done against Missouri, then the Tigers have to run the ball well. They might get away with dink-and-dunk short passing, but with this strategy, Nebraska might be trying to pull off what Bowling Green did for a while--cover everybody and make Gabbert freak out, get happy feet, and leave the pocket. Bad things happened to Missouri when that happened, and while he clearly learned as the game wore on, a) NU's better than BGSU, so in theory they'll be able to execute the strategy even better, and b) it's a much more sound strategy than "Make Gabbert beat you"...because he will. If they are trying to drop as many into coverage as possible, and Missouri still can't run the ball, then...well, they don't deserve to win. Nebraska is only decent up front against the run, not great--consider this a huge challenge to everybody involved in the running game--the backs, the line, the coaches, everybody.

Guess that means Missouri didn't deserve to win, huh?

Turnovers

Again, this is always the case. If you don't win the turnover battle, you will obviously struggle to win the game. That said, the projection for this game is Missouri by 0.4 points. Turnovers are worth anywhere between about 4 and 14 points. Do the math. In such a tightly-projected game, one big mistake could make all the difference.

Turnovers were the major reason Missouri had the lead for three quarters...and the major reason they lost the lead in the fourth. Until junk-time, Nebraska only managed one scoring drive, and it wasn't even a drive--it was for all intents and purposes, a one-play touchdown drive. Their second and third touchdowns were scored on drives of 18 and 10 yards because of turnovers. Mizzou did nothing in the fourth quarter to suggest that they would have won even without the turnovers, but it did Nebraska all sorts of favors.

Summary

It was just staggering how much this game mirrored the 2003 MU-NU game, wasn't it? Entering the fourth quarter in 2003, NU hadn't dominated, but they held a reasonably safe double-digit lead. Missouri scored immediately to start Q4 (it took NU three plays last Thursday, but same diff), forced an immediate killer turnover, and racked up 27 points on the way to a seemingly easy win that was far from easy for most of the game. Granted, there wasn't a fake field goal involved in this one, but there might as well have been. I guess it's worth noting that Nebraska ended up 10-4 in 2003, looking great against bad teams and iffy against good ones. There are only three good teams left on Mizzou's schedule--OSU, Texas, Kansas--so losing to Nebraska is far from the end of the world overall. Of course, it was still a pretty damaging loss for three reasons:

First, it really does almost kill Missouri's North title chances. Obviously they can still win it, but now they need some help from Nebraska. To overcome this disadvantage and get in the correct mind-state, they will have to take an example from Nebraska, of all teams. Missouri beat them by 35 last year and looked like they would absolutely cruise to the North title...but if Jordan Lake doesn't drop a sure interception of Chase Daniel late in the fourth quarter in Waco, then it is very likely that Baylor beats Missouri and Nebraska goes to the Big 12 title game. Missouri will now need Husker-beating help from OU, Kansas, and probably either Texas Tech or Colorado if they want to still have a chance at the North. Not impossible, but let's just say that with 15 minutes left on Thursday night, Missouri's North chances were infinitely brighter.

Second, it hurts because Missouri is now staring in the face an 0-3 start to conference play. Here's where over-coverage (and over-reaction) of sports becomes a serious problem. Never mind that Missouri will likely be rather heavily favored over the next four opponents on the schedule after UT and OSU, and never mind that Kansas hasn't looked too hot, so a five-game winning streak to end the season (and a 9-3 record overall) could be a distinct possibility. If they start 0-3, people will lose their freaking minds, even if they look relatively good in losing to OSU and Texas. Here's where I wish I could bore "LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE" into everybody's skulls, but I can't, and it's going to get pretty ugly.

Finally, this loss was physically damaging. Blaine Gabbert couldn't hardly walk after the first quarter. Carl Gettis got hurt on a punt return, and his replacement (Robert Steeples, I think) got burned for the deep touchdown. Will Ebner tore his meniscus, and even though it sounds like he'll be back soon, he's still 100% out for the OSU game, which could hurt. Plus, Wes Kemp got hung out to dry by Gabbert on a high screen pass and got completely obliterated by Donkey Kong Suh, and he was worthless the rest of the game. Gabbert, Gettis and obviously Kemp should be fine from here on out (or fine enough to play well), but this game hurt, both figuratively and literally.

And really...fourth, it was a loss to Nebraska. That's enough to hurt all by itself.

Anyway, Missouri will now travel to Stillwater for a winnable-but-quite-losable game. They are not favored, and they will need an upset to keep from going 0-3. They absolutely can do it, but whether they do or not, I really do hope Rock M readers take the big-picture view to these upcoming weeks. The future is still ridiculously bright no matter what happens on the next couple of Saturdays, and there were glimpses of confirmation for that last Thursday night...amid the raindrops and the wretched fourth quarter.

Sunday Wrap-Up Links

Bill C. — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 15:29:46 -0000

Recaps!

Mutigers.com: Missouri Routs Furman, 52-12
Mutigers.com: Official Box Score
The Trib: Tigers pummel Paladins
The Trib: Backups get their chance in spotlight
The Trib: Keeping up with Smiths is hard work
Post-Dispatch: Tigers dazzle Furman
Greenville News: No. 25 Missouri races past Furman
The Maneater: Missouri makes quick work of Paladins
Campus Corner (KC Star): MU Live Blog
PowerMizzou: Instant Analysis
PowerMizzou: Sunday Grade Card
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Tigers roll past Paladins
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Furman post-game comments
Palestra.net: Missouri Takes Care of Furman

Photo Galleries!

Receivers Looked Good!

The Missourian: Vertical passing game allows Missouri to open up offense, blow out Paladins
The Trib: Better to give and receive
Post-Dispatch: Mizzou receivers rise to occasion vs. Furman
The Missourian: Perry gets Missouri moving in easy win
PowerMizzou: Perry, receivers lead rout

Big 12 Links!

Virginia Tech 16, Nebraska 15
ESPN.com: Last-minute Taylor TD pass gives Virginia Tech edge over Nebraska
Dr. Saturday: Anguished defeat of the day: Never let Hokies get behind you, Huskers
Palestra.net: Virginia Tech Rallies to Top Nebraska
Texas 34, Texas Tech 24
ESPN.com: McCoy leads way as Texas avenges last season's loss to Tech
Dr. Saturday: Sergio Kindle teaches a brief course in small margins, courtesy of Taylor Potts' chin
SI.com (Stewart Mandel): Texas has its issues, but a win over Texas Tech remains noteworthy
ESPN.com: Potts couldn't beat Texas but still earns plaudits
Houston Chronicle: No. 2 Texas avenges loss to Tech with 34-24 win
Houston Chronicle: Leach shows his mettle in defeat
Dallas Morning News: Bringin' It: Tech game, but Texas' 'D' delivers in 34-24 win
Double T Nation: Double-T Daily Diatribe
KU 44, Duke 16
ESPN.com: Todd Reesing finds touch in second quarter, drives Kansas by Duke
Rock Chalk Talk: Kansas Jayhawks Recover from Faulty Start, Destroy Duke Blue Devils
KC Star (Jason Whitlock...you've been warned): Something's missing with Kansas
Topeka Capital-Journal: KU can sharpen offense
Topeka Capital-Journal: Toben Opurum makes most of chance
UConn 30, Baylor 22
ESPN.com: Dixon rushes for three touchdowns as Connecticut beats Baylor
Waco Tribune: Connecticut crashes Baylor party
Waco Tribune: Baylor football takes big step back with 30-22 loss to Connecticut
Waco Tribune: Collision with Jordan Lake painful for Joe Pawelek
OU 45, Tulsa 0
ESPN.com: Landry Jones tosses Oklahoma-record six touchdowns as Sooners roll
Daily Oklahoman: DeMarco Murray's moves freeze Tulsa
Crimson and Cream Machine: Is Brandon Caleb #2? -- Some Post Tulsa Game Questions and Answers
Tulsa World: TU's blown chances fuel blowout
OSU 41, Rice 24
ESPN.com: Robinson accounts for three TDs as Oklahoma St. rebounds vs. Rice
Daily Oklahoman: OSU is waiting for a playmaker on offense
Houston Chronicle: Rice falls to No. 16 Oklahoma State
UCLA 23, Kansas State 9
ESPN.com: Kevin Craft makes most of opportunity, guides UCLA past Kansas State
Texas A&M 38, Utah State 30
Houston Chronicle: Jerrod Johnson leads A&M in 38-30 win over Utah State
ESPN.com: Texas A&M tops Utah State behind Johnson's four touchdown passes
Colorado 24, Wyoming 0
ESPN.com: Colorado bounces back with romp of Wyoming
Iowa State 34, Kent State 14
ESPN.com: Arnaud runs for two TDs, throws for another as Cyclones top Golden Flashes

SB Nation - Jordan Lake

Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose :: Baylor Bears Edition

Crunching the Numbers :: Baylor Bears Edition

vs.

Five Initial Thoughts

Baylor Preview

Anatomy of Momentum: Scoring After the Fourth-Down Stop

The Context

The Plays

Final Totals

Final Verdict

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Revisiting Baylor

What happens when the Huskers visit Baylor on Halloween?

The Bears go down in flames, much like David Koresh's compound

Just like last year, the Huskers find a way to win this game

Baylor finally breaks through and wins a close one

Baylor wins in a blowout, meaning that every Big XII team has embarrased Nebraska this decade.

Week 7 Wrap-Up

Week 7 Preview: Baylor

The Basics:

At A Glance:

Things You Should Know:

Keys To The Game:

Prediction:

Who wins this game?

Iowa State

Baylor

Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score

Nebraska(27)

Mizzou(12)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Sunday Wrap-Up Links

Nebraska
(27)

Mizzou
(12)