SB Nation - Jay Finley

Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose :: Baylor Bears Edition

Seth C — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:00:15 -0000

by Sue Ogrocki - AP

23 days ago: Texas Tech running back Baron Batch, center, leaps into the end zone for a touchdown against Oklahoma during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game in Lubbock, Texas, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009. Texas Tech won the game 41-13. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

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This weekly feature considers five reasons why Texas Tech will win and five reasons Texas Tech will lose to each opponent. Check back tomorrow for "Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Win :: Baylor Bears Edition". ----- Ed. Note: I really had to hurry to get these up this morning. Apologies in advance for the quality.

Reason #1 :: Bowl Game: This is Baylor's finale for the year and it's only fitting that this is the #1 reason. It's a reason that the most of Texas Tech fans have expressed concern about since the TAMU loss and I still think there's a trust issue with this team. After sky-high wins, this version of the Red Raiders may be prone to letting press-clippings, girlfriends and other things let them know how great they are. There's plenty of talent on Baylor's squad and to discount Baylor because they are Baylor would be a huge mistake.

Reason #2 :: Short and Sweet: QB Nick Florence is a true freshman and he's not playing as bad as you would expect. Florence is a dink and dump sort of passer and he's not the type that likes to throw the ball deep. Florence is 7th in the conference in passing, again as a true freshman, and it will be interesting to see how Ruffin McNeill matches up with Florence in that there is no doubt that McNeill will play the bend-but-do-not-break methodology for this game.

Reason #3 :: Play Making Defense: Most of Baylor's opponents know about LB Joe Pawelek and S Jordan Lake. Both are seniors, Pawelek has 97 tackles (leads team), 2.5 sacks (2nd on team), and 4 TFL (3rd on team), while Lake has 83 tackles (2nd on team). You never underestimate the player that is playing his final collegiate game and is playing for pride. A little momentum could be dangerous thing for Texas Tech and both Pawelek and Lake are momentum makers.

Reason #4 :: Briles Knows Leach: This didn't help Bob Stoops last week, in part because I think Leach changed some things up this week, but there may not be a coach that knows Leach better than Art Briles and I think it showed last year. Of course, last year, QB Robert Griffin led the Baylor offense, which rushed for 229 yards total, while Griffin accounted for 99 yards and 2 TD's on the ground and Jay Finley ran for 105 yards on 10 carries. I know that Baylor lost LT Jason Smith, and it's been a huge loss for Baylor, but the Bears are capable and I think they are even more capable with Briles at the helm.

Reason #5 :: Shutting Down the Spread: I'm still somewhat shocked when I read the score and some of the status, but with Florence in charge, the Bears took down the Missouri Tigers, at Missouri. The subject line is a bit mis-leading in that Baylor really didn't shut down Mizzou, as QB Blaine Gabbert threw for 468 yards and 2 TD's, but the Baylor defense did register 4 sacks for the game and limited the Mizzou running game to 10 yards . . . for the day. The Tigers didn't seem to get their ground game going, and perhaps that's the key for the Red Raiders. Continue to run the ball, where Baylor is giving up 185 yards a game overall, but 230 in losses and only 108 in wins.

Crunching the Numbers :: Baylor Bears Edition

Seth C — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:00:13 -0000

Texas Tech Red Raiders
(7-4, 4-3)

vs.

Baylor Bears
(4-7, 1-6)

Game Information:
Date: November 28, 2009 :: Time: 5:00 p.m. CST :: Weather: Dallas, TX
TV: FSN :: Radio: Affiliates :: Game Cast: Fox Sports

A little short on time due to the holidays. Help me help the rest of you and post any of your initial thoughts in the comments.

CATEGORY	STATISTIC (NCAA RANK, CONF. RANK)	WINNER
TTU Pass Offense vs. BU Pass Defense	390.82 (2, 1) 223.00 (72, 6)
TTU Rush Offense vs. BU Rush Defense	79.36 (114, 12) 185.91 (100, 12)
BU Pass Offense vs. TTU Pass Defense	242.73 (39, 7) 222.45 (70, 5)
BU Rush Offense vs. TTU Rush Defense	100.27 (108, 10) 126.91 (40, 7)
TTU Scoring Offense vs. BU Scoring Defense	38.18 (7, 2) 27.91 (82, 10)
BU Scoring Offense vs. TTU Scoring Defense	21.45 (97, 11) 22.55 (42, 5)

Five Initial Thoughts

One :: Staying Grounded: When I looked at the stats last week, I thought that the Red Raiders would have to play the game of their lives against Oklahoma. The same could be said this week and I hope the team stays grounded. It can happen to you.

Two :: Still Effective Passing: Despite the slew of injuries at the Baylor quarterback position, freshman Nick Florence has still been respectable throwing the ball. Florence busted out for 427 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions at Missouri. He had a rough week against TAMU, but he's more than capable.

Three :: Struggling to Run: The Bears are not quite as bad as Texas Tech, but they're the closest opponent in terms of rushing offense, checking in for 10th in the conference and 100 yards a game. It's been a hodge-podge of runners, including Jay Finley, Jarred Salubi, Terrance Ganaway and Kendall Wright rush the ball.

Four :: Wright Way: WR Kendall Wright has been a bit up-and-down this year and he's averaging 65.4 receiving yards a game, which is good for 9th in the Big 12.

Five :: Defensive Leaders: LB Joe Pawelek and S Jordan Lake are respectively 3rd and 7th in the conference in tackles. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see both of these guys make some plays this week.

Baylor Game Review

Beergut — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 03:11:20 -0000

More photos » by Jerry Larson - AP

Texas A&M's Christine Michael (33) dives over Baylor's Jeremy Williams, left, to score on a 97-yard run during the second quarter of the Texas A&M-Baylor game. Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009, in College Station, Texas. The run was the longest in A&M's history. (AP Photo/Waco Tribune-Herald, Jerry Larson)

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It's hard to complain about a game in which you won by 5 touchdowna, and your defense holds the opponent to fewer than 300 yards of total offense and a field goal. The Aggies gained a season-high 375 yards rushing on 52 carries for 3 TDs and an average of 7.2 yards per carry. We were 19-25 passing for 153 yards and 2 TDs. We had 528 yards of total offense. The defense gave up 82 yards rushing on 26 carries for an average of 3.2 yards per carry, and 215 yards passing on 24 completions, while snagging 3 interceptions. All appearances are that the Aggies dominated the game to gain the win and bowl eligiblity. However, a closer look below the surface shows things aren't what they appear.

Offensively, I have little to complain about. I wasn't happy with Christine Michael's fumble, but I won't complain about his effort on a day he set the record for the longest play from scrimmage in Texas A&M football history. Michael does need to learn to protect the ball better. However, 114 yards rushing on 11 carries and a TD isn't too bad of a day. Cyrus Gray had 107 yards rushing on 14 carries, an average of 7.6 yards per carry. Along with Jerrod Johnson's 83 yards on 16 carries, Gray and Michael helped combine for the second 300-yard game from A&M's two starting RBs and the QB since the Tech game.

I was satisfied with the passing game. Jerrod spread the ball around to ten different receivers, and was an efficient 19-25 for 153 yards and 2 TDs. When Baylor came out in the second half and loaded the box, all but daring us to beat them with our passing game, I would have liked to see us go to the air some more, but when you can run the ball at will, like we were doing, there really is no reason to stop yourself if the defense can't stop you. Ryan Swope and Ryan Tannehill led the team with 4 receptions each, and Tannehill had one TD catch. I was also pleased to see Kenny Brown snag a TD on his one catch; his reception was on our first possession of the game, and helped us take the early lead. Considering the fact that Baylor only scored on a field goal, you could say Brown's one reception was the game-winner. Brown will be part of our future at the TE position, so it is nice to see him being productive. I enjoyed seeing Ryan Swope's role in this offense continue to grow; he is going to be a good one for us. I was surprised to see Uzoma Nwachukwu and Jeff Fuller only have 5 receptions between the two of them. I'm not sure if that is an issue of playcalling, or if defenses are doing a better job of getting help over deep to cover them, but Fuller and EZ should have a minimum of 15 receptions between the two of them each game, at least.

Defensively, out scheme continues to frustrate me. We seem to want to be aggressive on first and second down to stop the run, then drop off and keep the passing game in front of us on third down, and make the tackle. If the offense makes it down the field, we wait until they get to the red zone, then we play aggressive again, and try to force a field goal. Against Baylor, this strategy led to 3 interceptions, but better teams don't make those mistakes. We only had three sacks for the game, two of Nick Florence and one of Blake Syzmanski. We simply need to be able to bring more pressure than that. I know Baylor uses a lot of screens to take some pressure off their QB and get the ball out quickly, but we still gave Baylor too much time to pass the ball. Our run defense was okay; Jay Finley had one 26 yard run, and Jarred Salubi had a 34 yard run, but other than those two runs, we keep their ground game in check. We only gave up 177 yards passing to Florence on 21 completions, which means we were tacklng well, for the most part.

Overall, I am happy about this game, but we need to play better, especially on defense, if we want to win our next two games.

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:15:23 -0000

As we enter the second game of what Gary Pinkel is calling Mizzou's second season, let's take a look at where Art Briles' Baylor Bears present a threat, and where they've been hurt worst by the loss of Robert Griffin to a season-ending knee injury.

It was supposed to be different this year. Thanks to Hot Tub Griffin III, Baylor was going to threaten for a bowl game. They were actually exciting to watch for once, and Hot Tub was Rock M Nation's unanimous favorite non-Mizzou player.

Okay, you twisted my arm...one last time this season...

One last moment of silence, please. The knee injury that robbed Baylor (and us) of nine games of Hot Tub greatness* has left Baylor lifeless on offense, and despite an increase in overall team speed on offense and a relatively salty defense, the Bears sit at 3-5, 0-4 in the Big 12. Their best chance at a Big 12 win--a trip to Iowa State--ended with an easy, 14-point loss. We have all died a little inside without Hot Tub in our lives...and Baylor has died on the outside.

* Just for effect, I should once again point out that Griffin PLAYED THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN STATE GAME (well, all of the game that the first-string played) with a torn ACL suffered on the first possession, attempted three rushes, and went 16-for-19 passing with 226 yards and three touchdowns. With a torn ACL. God I love that guy.

Alright, now that we're past that, it's time to look at the team Baylor does have, and the amount of threat that they represent for Mizzou at 1pm on Faurot Field.

Offense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

We're going to start with Baylor's overall "+" ranking, presented as we've presented data for every opponent, but this comes with a rather obvious disclaimer: Baylor's last five games without Griffin have shown a different type of team than the one that made up a chunk of these ratings. We'll take a look at Baylor, pre- and post-Griffin injury, after the initial spew of data.

Baylor Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	BU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.7 (40)	111.7 (35)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	104.7 (53)	104.8 (45)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	129.7 (29)	122.4 (33)

Rushing S&P+	133.2 (5)	102.7 (63)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (73)	118.3 (30)

Standard Downs S&P+	114.6 (33)	112.5 (35)
Passing Downs S&P+	123.6 (35)	115.0 (36)

Red Zone S&P+	128.6 (22)	104.4 (61)

Q1 S&P+	136.2 (15)	95.5 (77)
Q2 S&P+	106.0 (63)	135.8 (12)
Q3 S&P+	124.5 (26)	112.2 (41)
Q4 S&P+	105.4 (55)	115.8 (34)

1st Down S&P+	122.2 (20)	108.0 (49)
2nd Down S&P+	127.0 (22)	112.3 (41)
3rd Down S&P+	101.1 (74)	113.8 (38)

Line Yards+	105.9 (52)	101.6 (61)
Close Sack Rate+	95.7 (73)	93.3 (72)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	106.7 (57) / 108.3 (56)	101.9 (57) / 123.0 (37)

Analysis after the jump.

Now, let's look at the Baylor offense with and without Hot Tub III.

Baylor Offense: With & Without Griffin
Category	With Griffin	W/out Griffin
Close S&P+	120.3	89.1
Close SR+	111.1	92.2
Close PPP+	129.5	84.1

Rushing S&P+	169.5	74.0
Passing S&P+	89.0	94.3

Standard Downs S&P+	132.3	82.0
Passing Downs S&P+	79.8	113.4

Red Zone S&P+	150.7	102.8

Q1 S&P+	169.9	98.6
Q2 S&P+	77.1	96.4
Q3 S&P+	183.6	80.7
Q4 S&P+	87.6	96.7

First, it is worth noting that BU's actually a better passing team with Florence than with Griffin. That's not the biggest shocker in the world, but it does show that Florence is at least solid. And he's got a pretty deep WR corps (deep in that the #2 guy is about equal to the #6 guy) to work with, plus a nice, offensive-minded head coach. Also, for whatever reason, they're better in both Q2 and Q4 with Florence than they were with Griffin. You figure that one out, as I have no idea; of course, they are infinitely worse in Q1 and Q3, so usually the game is lost by the time Q4 (or even Q2) comes about, it appears. Mizzou might do Baylor some favors, as they are usually not particularly great in Q1, but it appears that Q3 is death for the Bears (strange, considering BU outscored Nebraska 10-0 in Q3 last week).

When Baylor Has the Ball...
Baylor Rushing	Advantage: Missouri
Baylor Passing	Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Baylor:	Q1
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2-Q4

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. Where applicable, I'll look at post-Griffin numbers.

Close Success Rate+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+ (though Passing Downs is close)
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st Down, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for Baylor...

Q1 S&P+
2nd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Without Griffin, Baylor has found the going a lot rougher in terms of utilizing their other weapons--WR Kendall Wright, RB Jay Finley, etc. They still have at least a decent offensive line, but that line will need to execute against Missouri's rapidly improving defensive line, and they will need to generate some early points, as Missouri assumes more and more of an advantage as the game wears on. And if Baylor gets handed any easy opportunities through turnovers or special teams, they simply must convert those opportunities into touchdowns.

Quarterback

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Nick Florence: 84-for-147 passing (57.1%), 942 yards (6.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT

So...any great nicknames for Nick Florence yet? He needs you now more than ever. Really, Florence hasn't been too bad passing the ball. He hasn't been great, but considering two of his four Big 12 starts have come against Oklahoma and Nebraska, two of the three best defenses in the conference (this week, they play the fourth-best, followed by the overall best next week against Texas), his numbers haven't been too bad. He is indeed just a redshirt freshman, and he was thrown into a no-win situation; granted he indeed has no wins, but he could be a lot worse. Let's just say that he's absolutely no worse than Blizzle Szyzzle, Blake Szymanski. No offense intended, Mr. Blizzle.

Running Back

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

Jay Finley: 42 carries, 261 yards (6.2 per carry), 2 TD; 4 receptions, 24 yards (6.0 per catch)
Jarred Salubi: 42 carries, 249 yards (5.9 per carry), 2 TD; 17 receptions, 134 yards (7.9 per catch)
Terrance Ganaway: 34 carries, 134 yards (3.9 per carry), 3 TD; 1 reception, 13 yards

Between Jay Finley and Jarred Salubi, Baylor has managed a pretty decent first-string RB this year. Unfortunately, most of their success came early in the season. Finley had 121 yards on eight carries against UConn, while Salubi had 131 in seven carries against Northwestern State. Since Griffin's injury, Finley has managed 49 yards in just 20 carries (2.5 per carry) while recovering from a sprained ankle and pulled quad, while Salubi has only been slightly better at 118 yards in 35 carries (3.4 per carry). Injuries haven't helped here, but the injury that hurt most of all was obviously Griffin's. Without the dual threat QB, teams are able to focus a lot more on the RBs.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Joining [Kendall] Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

WR Kendall Wright: 40 catches, 448 yards (11.2 per catch), 2 TD; 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3 per carry), 1 TD
WR David Gettis: 31 catches, 426 yards (13.7 per catch), 3 TD
WR Ernest Smith: 26 catches, 280 yards (10.8 per catch); 1 carry, 5 yards
WR Lanear Sampson: 15 catches, 130 yards (8.7 per catch), 1 TD

TE Justin Akers: 14 catches, 124 yards (8.9 per catch), 1 TD
TE Brad Taylor: 8 catches, 90 yards (11.2 per catch)

In Baylor's first game post-Griffin, Kendall Wright had 125 yards in nine catches against Kent State, suggesting there was life even with a dry hot tub. However, in the past four games he has managed only 16 catches for 134 yards and has scored zero touchdowns (of course, Baylor as a whole has scored only four, so that's not saying a lot). Justin Akers (against OSU) and David Gettis (against Nebraska) have stepped up recently, but until more than one weapon shows up for a given game, Baylor's whole aerial attack is grounded. Wow, I did not intend that weak pun there. C'est la vie.

Offensive Line

Now [Jason] Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

Looking at Baylor's Line Yardage and Sack Rates, you get the distinct impression that this isn't a particularly good or bad line. In fact, with rankings around 60th in all categories, you could say the line is actually perfectly average. Unfortunately for Baylor, Mizzou's defensive line has been improving significantly in conference play and is quite likely well above average right now, especially with Aldon Smith surging and a much less mobile quarterback looking for open receivers. This matchup has gone from a draw to a distinct Mizzou advantage in recent weeks.

---

Defense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Baylor Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	BU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	100.0 (60)	106.2 (57)
Close Success Rate+	94.2 (84)	103.6 (58)
Close PPP+	109.0 (44)	112.8 (56)

Rushing S&P+	86.3 (98)	102.1 (67)
Passing S&P+	118.4 (29)	110.8 (51)

Standard Downs S&P+	99.5 (63)	105.0 (60)
Passing Downs S&P+	109.1 (47)	109.7 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	122.7 (32)	70.7 (114)

Q1 S&P+	89.0 (86)	117.9 (50)
Q2 S&P+	102.5 (63)	100.2 (73)
Q3 S&P+	109.8 (45)	111.9 (52)
Q4 S&P+	101.1 (61)	102.4 (65)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (58)	102.6 (66)
2nd Down S&P+	95.2 (75)	106.6 (64)
3rd Down S&P+	109.1 (50)	118.9 (38)

Line Yards+	87.1 (101)	101.3 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	89.9 (78)	173.9 (16)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	79.1 (93) / 115.6 (45)	243.4 (8) / 124.7 (41)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage(ish): Baylor
Best Time for Baylor:	Q2-Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q1, Q4

With Gabbert looking much, much healthier against Colorado, we can at least tentatively put an end to the "injured Gabbert" period. So, since we did the "pre-and-post" treatment for Baylor, should we do the same for Mizzou? We know that Mizzou's offensive stats plummeted with Gabbert's ankle sprain, but we also know that the defenses Mizzou faced at that time were much better. Luckily, we have "+" numbers to account for the difference in competition level! So here are the numbers for when Blaine Gabbert had one and two healthy ankles (the "one healthy ankle" stats are for the last three quarters of the Nebraska game and all of the Texas and OSU games):

Missouri Offense: Healthy vs Injured Gabbert
Category	Healthy #11	Injured #11
Close S&P+	107.1	94.3
Close SR+	101.2	95.3
Close PPP+	114.1	93.1

Rushing S&P+	85.4	117.1
Passing S&P+	119.3	81.6

Standard Downs S&P+	103.4	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	90.9	98.2

Red Zone S&P+	70.6	108.4

Q1 S&P+	93.7	116.3
Q2 S&P+	91.3	107.2
Q3 S&P+	108.2	31.5
Q4 S&P+	101.7	81.4

Mizzou was significantly better at both rushing and red zone offense when Gabbert was hurt, but I think there is a bit of noise in the statistics there. Mizzou got a lot of credit for the touchdown they scored on their lone red zone trip against Texas, and that balanced out their craptastic execution against OSU. Either way, that's a damn small sample size. Meanwhile, the rushing success didn't seem to have anything to do with Gabbert limping around--it was seemingly more a result of Missouri's offensive line simply blocking better (and, potentially, their running backs running better).

Either way, we're definitely working with a small sample size here, but there are some conclusions that can be reached: 1) while Missouri's second-half execution against Colorado left something (okay, a lot) to be desired, they are still a much, much better second-half team with a healthy Gabbert. It's almost as if Missouri was able to disguise Gabbert's injury with good game-planning, but by the second half, they were out of tricks. Now, with Gabbert throwing more accurate passes and pulling down a couple of keepers, Missouri has a lot more options. Also, and this is some incredible statistical analysis here, 2) Missouri is a much better passing team when their quarterback can actually hit his targets.

With that in mind, let's look at Missouri's "healthy Gabbert" advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+
Sack Rates+

Baylor's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2 S&P+

With a healthy Gabbert, the passing game seems to be a draw, as do Q3 and Q4 S&P+ and 1st Down S&P+.

Defensive Line

Beyond [Penn State transfer Phil] Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

DE/DT Jason Lamb: 21.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 2 Blocked Kicks
DT Trey Bryant: 15.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 3 QBH
DE Zac Scotton: 12.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Phil Taylor: 11.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 QBH, 2 Blocked Kicks
DE Tracy Robertson: 10.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 3 QBH

So...has vaunted transfer Phil Taylor actually made a difference? Baylor's pass defense has actually been pretty solid, but their rushing defense has been horrible. If Mizzou's offensive line was able to open up holes for Derrick Washington and company and protect Blaine Gabbert from Colorado pass rushers, there's nothing saying they won't be able to do the same (and better) against Baylor. Maybe Taylor really is a difference-maker, but the rest of the line has been just terrible? Jason Lamb, who has been playing at Baylor since Grant Teaff was coach, has put up some decent numbers--as good as those of Mizzou's Jaron Baston and Dominique Hamilton--but he's pretty much it. If he's not making a nice play, then Baylor's relying on the LBs.

Linebackers

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Joe Pawelek: 52.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 2 PBU
Antonio Jones: 47.0 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
Antonio Johnson: 41.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU
Chris Francis: 21.0 tackles
Elliot Coffey: 20.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Earl Patin: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

I really was pretty impressed with Joe Pawelek last year, but while he's been rock solid this year, it doesn't seem like he's been quite the playmaker I was expecting. He's still good, though, and the Two Antonios have combined with Pawelek to form what is certainly a decent unit. As I put it in the offseason, Baylor has struggled in certain areas (i.e. run defense), but they're not the reason why. And they're fast enough to do decent things in pass coverage.

Secondary

Jordan Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

S Jordan Lake: 48.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF
S Jeremy Williams: 25.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
CB Clifton Odom: 22.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 4 PBU
S Byron Landor: 22.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBU
CB Tim Atchison: 21.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 PBU
CB Chance Casey: 18.5 tackles, 2 INT, 1 QBH, 4 PBU
S Mike Hicks: 12.5 tackles

If Pawelek hasn't been quite what I thought this year, Jordan Lake REALLY hasn't been what I thought. He was a pretty strong, disruptive player in 2008; this year, he's just a tackler. One forced fumble, one tackle for loss, and no interceptions? Huh. In all, though, Baylor's pass defense really has been pretty decent this year; I mean, ranking 47th isn't amazing by any means, but with a sieve for a run defense, the secondary has been the least of their problems. Can you tell I haven't at all been impressed with their defensive line?

Special Teams

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Punt Returns Rank: 22nd (Krys Buerck: 12 Returns, 7.5 Avg)
Net Punting Rank: 89th (Derek Epperson: 45.2 Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 39th (Terrance Williams: 13 Returns, 26.0 Avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 44th

Field Goals: 4-for-8 (Long: 41) (113th)
PATs: 17-for-18

If the special teams play involves a Baylor player with the ball in his hands, running upfield, then Baylor's special teams unit is pretty solid. If it involves somebody in a Baylor uniform kicking...not so much. Derek Epperson ranks in the nation's top 20 in overall punt average, but their net average has been hurt by two blocked punts, and they're giving up almost 17 yards per return (with one touchdown). Ouch. And Ben Parks has been far from great as place-kicker. But hey, Krys Buerck and Terrance Williams are bright spots. That's something.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over. With Blaine Gabbert's arm, I love the idea of going deep quite a few times, but with the advantages Missouri will have in other regards, Missouri really just needs to avoid Passing Downs disaster, and they should be alright. It's rare one of my keys is "stay relatively conservative and don't do anything stupid," but that does appear to be the case here. I like to surprise myself sometimes.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. (SPREAD DOESN'T WORK NEED FULLBACK RAWR!!!!! ET CETERA. Just thought I'd get that out of the way so that doesn't come up and I don't have to point out that Missouri's red zone offense has been just fine in the spread the last few years.) Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

Prediction

Clearly this is Missouri's game to lose. It is Baylor at home, after all. However, even without Robert Griffin, this Baylor team has more weapons and team speed than previous Bears iterations, and if Missouri lets them hang around, loses the turnover battle, gets some bad bounces, allows a big play or two, etc., Baylor can absolutely win this game. As long as Missouri plays average or better, they should move to 6-3 and bowl eligibility. The numbers say Mizzou by 16.5, so we'll say Mizzou 30, Baylor 13. Run the ball well, rip off a big play or two, don't commit any awful turnovers, and let Mizzou's defensive weapons--Sean Weatherspoon, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, etc.--make the plays they can make.

Revisiting Baylor

Husker Mike — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 11:53:20 -0000

More photos » by Rod Aydelotte - AP

When Robert Griffin tore his ACL against Northwestern State last month, it also tore apart the dreams of a breakthrough season for the Bears. (AP Photo/Waco Tribune Herald, Rod Aydelotte)

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Baylor certainly started season on the right note, going 3-1 in the non-conference schedule including a 24-21 upset of Wake Forest in the season opener. But then the Bears took a turn for the worst when Robert Griffin tore his ACL. This month, Baylor has only scored 24 points in three games, a number that looks unlikely to change much with the Blackshirts coming for a visit this weekend.

It's not just the loss of Robert Griffin that has "da Bearsh" reeling. Running back Jay Finley has been injured along with defensive tackle Phil Taylor. In that light, it might seem irrelevant to look at our season preview of Baylor, but let's review it again.

During the first twelve years of the Big XII, Baylor established themselves as the doormat of the conference in football. Some even suggested that Baylor be removed from the Big XII, feeling it was hopeless for the Bears to ever be able to compete. Certainly it's unclear whether Baylor would have ever been invited to join the Big XII if it wasn't for the efforts former Texas governor (and Baylor alumn) Ann Richards. But a funny thing happened in 2008. Baylor football showed signs of life.

Baylor hired former Houston coach Art Briles to take over for Guy Morriss, and convinced his prized recruit, quarterback Robert Griffin to sign with the Bears. The season started in typical Baylor fashion, losing 41-13 to Baylor. But two weeks later, the Bears caught the notice of the nation by walloping Washington State 45-17 as Robert Griffin ran for 217 yards. Baylor would go on to finish 4-8 and break out of the Big XII doghouse by defeating Iowa State and Texas A&M rather handily. From that squad, the Bears return 18 starters in 2009; a scary proposition for the rest of the conference.

Robert Griffin returns at quarterback after a stellar true freshman season, being named the Big XII offensive freshman of the year. A dual threat wizard, he rushed for 843 yards and 13 touchdowns, and threw for 2091 yards, 15 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. He set an NCAA freshman record by throwing 209 passes in a row without an interception, nearly breaking the Big XII mark of 213. That's downright scary. Then consider his speed: he's a legitimate track star who hopes to run in the 2012 London Olympics.

That's freaky scary. I guess for Nebraska's sake, it's probably better to have Baylor on the schedule for Griffin's freshman and sophomore seasons, as opposed to his junior and senior seasons.

But Baylor isn't a one-trick pony; running back Jay Finley did outrush Griffin last season, adding seven touchdowns to the mix. He'll ensure balance in the Bears offense for his junior season. Griffin's primary targets in the passing game will be sophomore Kendall Wright, with 649 yards and five touchdowns last season, and senior David Gettis, a former track star in his own right.

Up front, the Bears return two starters, senior right guard James Barnard and senior center J.D. Walton. They'll miss all-American left tackle Jason Smith, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams with the #2 pick this spring. Two junior college transfers will take over at tackle, junior right tackle Marquis Franklin and junior left tackle Danny Watkins. Watkins is a 24 year old Canadian who took up football a couple of years ago and became a junior college all-American.

If you were paying attention to the preseason all-Big XII teams, you might have been surprised that Baylor had more first team selections than Nebraska did. Here's the scary thing: they're all on defense. Up front, the Bears will be led by senior defensive end Jason Lamb and junior defensive tackle Phil Taylor. Taylor, who transferred from Penn State after getting into an on-campus fight, was named preseason newcomer of the year.

All three linebackers return, including all-Big XII senior middle linebacker Joe Pawelek, who had 128 tackles and six interceptions last season. Bookmarking Pawelek are the Antonios: senior Antonio Jones and junior Antonio Johnson.

In the secondary, two part time starters return at cornerback in juniors Antareis Bryan and Tim Atchison, but the star is senior all-Big XII safety Jordan Lake, who merely added 97 tackles and three interceptions last season. Senior Jeremy Williams will man the other safety spot.

Last year's Baylor squad got people's attention by scaring Connecticut, Nebraska, and Missouri last season. Just before Thanksgiving, the Bears beat A&M, thus ensuring that A&M can now be referred to as the "new Baylor" of the Big XII, since the Bears are no longer the conference doormat. This year, they get UConn and the Huskers at home. The schedule sets up a scary Halloween matchup for the Huskers with the Bears, who might finally be shaking the "Bad News Bears" reputation this season.

Poll

What happens when the Huskers visit Baylor on Halloween?

14%

The Bears go down in flames, much like David Koresh's compound

47 votes

54%

Just like last year, the Huskers find a way to win this game

177 votes

19%

Baylor finally breaks through and wins a close one

65 votes

11%

Baylor wins in a blowout, meaning that every Big XII team has embarrased Nebraska this decade.

37 votes

326 votes | Poll has closed

In Perspective: Further Comparisons Between Nebraska and Baylor

Jon Johnston — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 12:30:23 -0000

More photos » by Dave Weaver - AP

Perhaps this week it'll be all smiles?

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Let's start out with some good news - Baylor has forced only one turnover in their Big 12 games this season! Rather than getting all negative with that "they haven't faced our offense yet", let's try to keep our positive energy up. A good season is still in sight, and it can easily begin this weekend against the Bears.

I mentioned the Bear's offensive woes in the "Under the Hood" article earlier, but Baylor has only scored 24 points in their three Big 12 games. Digging deeper, it's worthy to note that two of their three touchdowns were scored in the fourth quarters of their games after their opponents had built sizable leads, in other words, in 'garbage' time.

Baylor has lost 22 consecutive games when trailing by halftime, so it behooves the Husker offense to get rolling and score some points early.

	Nebraska		Baylor
	National	Big 12	National	Big 12
3rd Down Conversions	30	3	96	11
Red Zone Conversions (Score %)	96	11	87	12

Turnover Margin	96	10	64	8
Sacks	31	6	79	11
Tackles for Loss	37	5	80	12
Sacks Allowed	33	4	39	6
Punting (Avg)	76	7	8	2
Punt Returns	49	6	77	10
Kickoff Returns	57	6	42	5
Penalties (Yds/G)	94	5	100	6

As you might have expected, Nebraska dropped by quite a bit since last week in two key categories:

- From 59th to 96th nationally in red zone scoring percentage

- From 37th to 96th nationally in turnover margin, from fourth to tenth in the Big 12.

Good News:

- Nebraska went from 104th to 94th nationally in penalties. That's a nice improvement and one could hope a sign that the offensive line has gotten it together.

Otherwise:

- Notice the horrid third-down conversion for Baylor. On the surface their running game doesn't look horrendous, but against Big 12 opponents, they're rushing for only 46 yards per game with a 2.42 yard per carry average . Their top running back, Jay Finley, has been injured and they're obviously missing Robert Griffin. Still, I wouldn't expect their luck to get any better against the Husker defensive line.

- Surprisingly, the Bears have done better throwing the ball against Big 12 conference defenses, where they've averaged 259.3 yards per game, better than their 197 yard per game average against non-conference teams. This despite the fact that their pass efficiency rating has dropped from 147.12 to 106.45. This, again, is due to Griffin's absence.

- Neither teams has been dazzling in the return department, although Niles Paul is 38th nationally in punt return average and 51st nationally in kickoff returns. Baylor's Terrence Williams is 35th nationally. Neither team has scored on returns.

- Baylor's Derek Epperson is third nationally in punting average with a 46.09 yards per punt average, while Alex Henery is 63rd with 40.00 yards per punt. Given Nebraska's offensive problems, field position could play a key role in this game.

- Bottom line - there's absolutely no reason Nebraska doesn't win this game. The Bears shouldn't be able to do much offensively, and our offense should be able to move the ball against their defense. As it is in most years with Baylor, they have some playmakers, but not enough depth on either side of the ball to stop us for four quarters.

- All of the paragraph can be tossed if Nebraska continues to stop ourselves.

All statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com.

Cornhuskers vs Bears preview

Week 7 Preview: Baylor

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 16:30:28 -0000

Big game for ISU. Back at the Jack, homecoming, under the lights, with the chance to pickup a much needed win.

The Basics:

Records: ISU (3-3, 0-2), Baylor (3-2, 0-1)
Date: Saturday, October 17th, 2009
Location: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Time: 6:00pm CDT
TV: None
Line: ISU -2.5, O/U 53.5 , though I've seen lines as low as -1

At A Glance:

ISU, coming off of two close losses, now return to Jack Trice hoping to get their first conference win of the season (and the first since 2007). Baylor, a trendy pick to make a bowl game prior to the season, has struggled this year, and their chances to become bowl eligible took a shot when QB Robert Griffin tore his ACL. If either team hopes to make it to 6 wins this year, they will need to win this game. In reality, neither team may get to 6 wins, but this week is all about keeping these hopes alive. I think that will make for this to be a good game that could go either way.

Things You Should Know, Keys to the Game, and My Prediction After The Jump!

Things You Should Know:

Coming off of a close loss against Kansas, Cyclone fans might be too confident about this game. Bill C at Rock M Nation projects ISU winning by 0.1, meaning it's a deadlock game. Being favored by 1.5-2.5 points, is actually not a favor at all. I think on average the home team gives 3-3.5 points. With ISU being a 1.5-2.5 point favorite at home, means that if this were at Baylor, ISU would likely be a 4.5-5.5 point underdog. In short, Bill C thinks it's an even matchup because I do not believe he takes homefield into the consideration, while Vegas thinks that Baylor is slightly better, but gives the slight nod to ISU due to the game being played in Ames.
Baylor's rush defense is a bit misleading. Baylor does have the 4th worst rushing defense in the nation in terms of total rushing yards, allowing 180.8 yards/game. At the same time, they are 18th in the nation in rushing yard attempts against per game (41.8 rushing attempts/game). They are 42nd in rushing yards allowed per attempt at 4.3 yards/rush. 4.3 yards/rush is still relatively high, and I'm not saying we won't be able to run against them
The passing game will be more challenged compared to the past few weeks. While Baylor is ranked 74th in passing yards allowed/game at 234.5 yards/game, those are better numbers than Kansas State and Kansas. Everyone was excited how ISUwas able to pass last week. This week, we will get a better idea of whether the passing game has improved, or if the previous pass defenses were just really bad. It's probably a combination of both, but I will be interested in seeing how they perform in the passing game.
Arnaud should get plenty of time to throw compared to last week. ISU is still tied for first in the nation in sacks allowed/game, but Arnaud did get hurried quite a bit from Kansas' front four, especially when it mattered. Baylor is 70th in sacks/game at 1.8 sacks/game, so Arnaud should get enough time to make the needed throws.
ISU's receivers need to hang onto the ball when going across the middle. Jordan Lake is a big hitter and can force fumbles. The guy is a bigtime playmaker on defense.
Iowa State needs to wrap up Baylor's running backs. Baylor has two running backs and 1 receiver that average 7 or more yards/carry in Jay Finley, Jarred Salubi, and Kendall Wright. Finley and Salubi have broken off runs of 70 yards or more this season, and have big play ability in addition to Wright.
In general, Iowa State's defense needs to key on Kendall Wright. He has caught 26 passes for 330 yards and 2 TDs and rushed the ball 15 times for 106 yards and 1 TD. He also has taken snaps out of the Wildcat (Baylor calls it the Bearcat, but I think that's silly since there is a college team called the Bearcats and they are in Cincinatti). Also you may remember that last year Wright tore up ISU, catching 7 passes for 132 yards and 2 TDs, including a 51 yarder that made ESPN's Top 10. Don't think that Baylor won't try to get the ball in their biggest playmaker's hands.
If ISU takes the lead going into the 4th quarter, I like their chances. Baylor has only scored 7% of their points (11 total) in the 4th quarter. Their best quarter, however, is the third, where they have scored 36% of their points (55 total). ISU's best quarter is close between the 2nd (31%) and 3rd (30%) quarter. In general, ISU's scoring is more evenly distributed than Baylor's.

Keys To The Game:

Put pressure on the QB. ISU's pass defense is 91st in the Nation at 253.6. A lot of this is due to the fact that the opposing QB has had time to find the hole in the zone and hit the open receiver. Our D-Line needs to step up.
Take care of the football. While this was improved last week (0 turnovers), ISU still averages 2.4 giveaways/game. Hopefully this continues.
Better Special Teams in all phases. I think we've seen the past two weeks how important Special Teams are in football. A lot of times it's a play or two in the special teams that determines a game between two close opponents. The team needs to be more solid here, as you do not want to leave points on the board. These botched plays really give momentum to the other team, and obviously you do not want that.

Prediction:

I think it's going to be close. ISU is a slightly better team, but Baylor has a better coach. I think it's going to come down to a play or two that whichever way it goes will likely be the winner. Both teams will score because the defenses as a whole are not that good, and game conditions sound like they will be fine by kickoff. I'll go with ISU 30, Baylor 27.

How do you see this one playing out?

Poll

Who wins this game?

Iowa State

30 votes

Baylor

6 votes

36 votes | Poll has closed

Oklahoma vs Baylor Game Thread

ccmachine — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 18:30:15 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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Game Information

Date: October 10^th

Location: Norman | Live Radar

Stadium: Oklahoma Memorial Stadium

TV: ABC

Radio: Sooner Sports Radio Network

Satellite: Sirius Satellite Channel 152 | XM 105

Team Comparison	OU	Baylor
Points Per Game	35.5	36.2
Total Offense Per Game	424.8	393.2
Passing Yards Per Game	239.2	197
Rushing Yards Per Game	185.5	196.2
Points Allowed Per Game	8.8	19.8
Total Yards Allowed Per Game	253	330.8
Rushing	65.5	164.8
Passing	187.5	166
AP Rankings	19	NR

Baylor Players To Watch

Running Back Jay Finley - 22 Carries, 212 Yards, 9.6 YPC, 1 TD

Running Back Jarred Salubi - 24 Carries, 197 Yards, 8.1 YPC, 2 TDs

Receiver Kendall Wright - 24 Receptions, 314 Yards, 13.1 YPC, 2 TDs

Linebacker Antonio Jones - 40 Total tackles, 3 Tackles for loss, 1 Sack

Oklahoma Players To Watch

Quarterback Sam Bradford - 71% Completion percentage, 96 Yards, 1 TD

Running Back DeMarco Murray - 55 Carries, 408 All-Purpose Yards, 5.4 YPC, 4 Total TDs

Receiver Brandon Caleb - 14 Receptions, 201 Yards, 14.4 YPC, 2 TDs

Linebacker Travis Lewis - 39 Total tackles, 3.5 Tackles for loss, 1 Sack

CFB Big 12 Roundup: Week One

rockchalk — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 18:35:37 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Where did you put us in the Big 12 Power Rankings?(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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Note: This story's comment section turned into an impromptu Open Game Thread for the absolutely aces (fantastic/awesome/incredible/super/sensational/awe-inspiring/etc,) game between Miami and Florida State. I highly recommend reading through the comments, if you have time, but just as a warning -- only the first five are actually about the (brilliantly written, I might add) story. The rest are all Canes-Noles. It starts roughly 5 minutes into the 4th quarter. And yes, we put up that many numbers. It is a future first ballot Hall of Famer in the sometime-to-be-created Rock Chalk Talk Hall of Fame, and is that good. Read it.

Everyone's favorite Big 12 weekly wrapup from college basketball is back, this time for college football!

(Applause)

Seriously, though, this should be a weekly feature, highlighting all of the Big 12 teams, and how they fared in their games. It will also take a brief look towards next week, along with providing some form of Power Rankings for the week. In a way, it's my own version of the Big 12 Roundtable.

So, let's get this started. We'll work through the teams based off of their preseason ranking according to me:

This Week's Games

Iowa State 34 North Dakota State 17 -- The 17-point margin of victory looks nice, as well it should, but I don't know exactly how it happened. Both teams had 2 turnovers, with the Clones only outgaining the Fighting Ben Woodsides by 54 yards. A scary note for the Block-I's: NDSU runningback Pat Paschall piled up 146 yards rushing on only 21 carries, which is 7 yards per. That isn't good. So, while Iowa State's offense certainly looked competent, the defense needs to take some serious steps forward or, uh, ouch.

Next Week -- vs. Iowa -- Clone Chronicles

Nebraska 49 Florida Atlantic 3 -- This was exactly the type of performance the Cornhuskers needed to open the season. A dominating victory, leaving no doubt about who the better team was or anything, against a solid, bowl-winning Florida Atlantic team. The key for the Huskers was the running game, as Roy Helu Jr. just got whatever he wanted, picking up 9.5 yards a carry. That is ridiculous.

Next Week -- vs. Arkansas State -- Corn Nation

Texas Tech 38 North Dakota 13 -- Unlike North Dakota State, the Fighting Sioux are a D-II school. Division II. And while the Red Raiders were never in danger of actually losing the game, it certainly wasn't the preposterous blowout that it easily could have been. Taylor Potts had a shiny 405 total yards passing, but he also threw three interceptions, which is obviously worrisome for the Techers. I'm assuming it had everything to do with getting Potts as many attempts as possible, but Mike Leach essentially abandoned the run altogether, calling only 14 runs all game long. 14. 53 passes were called, combining Potts' 48 attempts with 5 runs/sacks for negative yardage. That is a big disparity.

Next Week -- vs. Rice -- Double-T Nation

Kansas State 21 UMass 17 -- Uhhhhhh. I mean, I know Bill Snyder is famous for vanilla-izing his playbook against terrible opponents, and Carson Coffman is a true QB in nobody's eyes, but still -- they won by four against the Minutemen. A win is a win, and it counts the same, and may be more valuable in the long run than a total blowout would have been. But still, this can't be comforting to the Powercat faithful. What should ease the pain is K-State's 195 yard advantage, with only Carson Coffman mistakes (1 INT, 1 fumble) keeping the Minutemen alive. Their D was fabulous against the pass, holding UMass to only 3.2 yards per attempt, but were poor against the run, giving up more than 5 yards a run to UMass' starting runningback.

Next Week -- @ Louisiana Lafayette -- Bring On the Cats

Texas A&M 41 New Mexico 6 -- Really, of all of the Big 12 teams, this was almost assuredly the performance of the week. The Lobos have a brand new coaching staff, yes, and last year the Aggies made the trip to Mexico Nuevo as opposed to this year's matchup at Kyle Field, but still -- the Ampersands won 28-22 last year, and 41-6 this year. That is a big difference. Might Mike Sherman, to the surprise of the entire world, know what he's doing afterall? The score wasn't just garbage-time points, either. Texas A&M surged ahead to a 20-0 lead and was winning 34-6 by the end of the 3rd quarter. They outgained the Lobos by nearly 400 yards, and Jerrod Johnson looked absolutely fantastic. 349 yards passing plus another 50 running, paired with freshman Christine Michael's near 100-yard day was a large positive for the Ags. Now, maybe New Mexico is just way worse than everyone expected, so it's too early to really draw much. But, the Aggies looked like a bowl team on Saturday night.

Next Week -- BYE -- I Am the 12th Man

Texas 59 Louisiana Monroe 20 -- Was anyone surprised, at all, about this final score? Yeah, I didn't really think so. This is basically the performance everyone was expecting from the 'Horns -- absolute domination on the offensive side of the ball, with periodic struggles on defense. It should be noted, however, that the Warhawks scored 10 of their points in the 4th quarter, when the game was more than in hand the subs, I'm sure, were playing. So, periodic struggles is unfair. However, Colt McCoy did throw a pick, so I think it's definitely time for Bevo to panic.

Next Week -- @ Wyoming -- Burnt Orange Nation

Missouri 37 Illinois 9 -- What did I tell you? Missouri is going to be good this year, people -- really good. I'm not even positive they won't be better than last season. Of course, before I get too high up on a pedestal of genius, just remind me that I was just regurgitating the information that RMN's numbers told me to believe. Really, it is math that called Missouri, so score one for math. The mathless wonders in Champaign (I mean, who really thinks that Regis Benn has ever attended a calculus class?) were outclassed from the opening whistle, as Blaine Gabbert looked marvelous. Now, not marvelous enough to supercede Tom Brady in football history (I'm looking at you, Jason Whitlock), but still -- pretty damn good. I just hope our eerily similar transition next year is as seamless as the Tigers' will be*.

Next Week -- vs. Bowling Green State -- Rock M Nation

* Seriously, it's downright creepy the similarities between the 08-09 turnover for the Tigers and the 09-10 turnover for the Jayhawks. Another reason to watch the Tigers closely this season. I mean, Missouri lost Chase Daniel (Todd Reesing), Jeremy Maclin (Dezmon Briscoe), Chase Coffman (Kerry Meier) and William Moore (Darrell Stuckey). I mean, wow. We don't really have a Ziggy Hood, and there are a couple other minor places where the comparison falls off, but it isn't bad. We do lose our runningback, while they kept theirs. So, yeah, maybe not as good as I thought. Still.

Baylor 24 Wake Forest 21 -- Huh? Robert Griffin III, who is the Bears' lone good player, was held to a combined 177 yards, and the Bears won? On the road? Against a ACC bowl team? Damn. Maybe it isn't just the Robert Griffin show, after all. The Bears scored on a WR pass to give them the would-be game-winner, with runningback Jay Finley also taking on the brunt of the workload. And of course, the defense is quite good, led by Joe Pawalek at LB, and they did a good job against Riley Skinner and Company. I love Baylor.

Next Week -- BYE -- NO BLOG EXISTS

Colorado 17 Colorado State 23 -- Whoops. And let me just tell you, it wasn't really a 6-point loss. It was 23-3 at one point, and the Rams looked like they were just getting started. Obviously, that isn't true, and the Buffs stepped it up towards the end, but it was clear from play one who the better team was out there on the field. And a lot of the time, it wasn't really close. Cody Hawkins predictably looked quite awful back there at QB, and for reasons unknown to rational humans, Darrell Scott was handed off to once. One carry. That's it. Beginning to regret the decision to go to Boulder, there, Darrell? Of course, it wasn't just that Hawkins decided to focus on Rodney Stewart or Brian Lockridge, instead. Nah. Lockridge only had one carry himself (a 9-yard TD run) while Stewart only picked up 6 carries. That is a combined 8 for your three best runningbacks, Dan Hawkins. And your son, who is awful, threw the ball 40 times. Uh, wut?

Next Week -- @ Toledo -- The Ralphie Report

Oklahoma State 24 Georgia 10 -- The performance of the day for the Big 12, at least when it comes to national perception. With all of the hype that the Pokes have received this offseason, it was crucial they at least showed up against an SEC team considered to be the 4th best this season, and who lost their top QB, RB and WR over the offseason. After not showing up for much of the first half, they managed to hang around, then somehow take a 10-7 lead into halftime. Even now, I'm not sure how they did that. But then in the second half, they showed who really was the best team on the field. It is the lynchpin to the upcoming campaign, Big 12 > SEC. Also, Bill Young knows how to coach a little sumpin'-sumpin' on defense, huh? Dayum. Now, I think part of it may have been just a bad Georgia offense, but still -- last year's Oklahoma State defense gives up a lot more than 10 points.

Next Week -- vs. Houston -- NO BLOG EXISTS

Oklahoma 13 BYU 14 -- Sam Bradford or no Sam Bradford, this one wasn't good for Boomer Sooner. Even before Sam Bradford went out with a sprained shoulder, Oklahoma just looked bad. At times, really bad. Their offensive line was in shambles, with the Mormons consistently getting pressure on Sam. And, as everyone predicted last season, Sam isn't quite sure what to do with pressure. He never had less than 18 seconds last year to throw, so when he was only given 2 and 3 on Saturday, it wasn't pretty. Landry Jones, owner of the world's ugliest mustache (besides Trey Hillman, of course), looked even worse, predictably. It wasn't just worse, though -- Landry (can we call him Lance?) looked absolutely awful. No Jermaine Greshman couldn't have been positive, either. Of course, it isn't like Oklahoma's D was awesome, either -- Max Hall basically ripped them to shreds, and it could have been worse except for a pair of Max Hall mental mistakes. Not a good sign for Boomer Sooner.

Next Week -- vs. Idaho State -- Crimson and Cream Machine

What 2 Watch 4 (I Can Be Cool Too, ESPN)

Basically, this is what I want to see from every Big 12 team next week. It maybe as simple as just asking for a victory, or it may be as specific as getting Player X the ball more.

Iowa State -- Stop the running game. Iowa lost Shonn Greene, yes, but they still have a dangerous ground attack. If you can't improve on last week's putrid performance, no way you pull off the upset.

Nebraska -- Rinse and repeat. Arkansas State is about the same quality of team as the Owls, so I want to see an equally dominant performance.

Texas Tech -- Taylor Potts needs to improve. Obviously, the yardage totals look nice, but he needs to take better care of the ball.

Kansas State -- Don't lose. ULa-La is a good team, certainly a lot better than UMass, and plus it is on the road. More specifically, shore up the running defense, but as long as you come out of there with a W, be happy.

Texas -- Rinse and repeat. Same situation as Nebraska. Now, it doesn't have to be quite as dominant, as Wyoming is probably a step up and it is in Laramie, but you should still win by 24 points easily.

Missouri -- Don't get overconfident. Yes, you looked incredible on Saturday. But don't underestimate just how bad Illinois probably is. They are awful. They'll be lucky to make a bowl this year. Book it. And Bowling Green is an improved team who crushed Troy last Thursday night, the predicted winner of the Sun Belt. Not too much partying, Blaine. A loss to the Falcons erases all of the positive goodwill of a win over the Juices Benz.

Colorado -- Please, just win. Please. If you lose to Toledo, you aren't making a bowl. Just please, win. Please.

Oklahoma State -- Basically the same as Missouri, just take out the part about how bad the opponent was. Georgia actually is a pretty good team. Maybe really good, even. Still, Houston is pretty good, too, and Casey Keenum is a stud, so let's not go out partying or nothing. I had to speak in a double-negative, there, because that's how they speak. And I really want them to listen to me.

Oklahoma -- Coach the hell out of Landry (Lance?) this week. Idaho State shouldn't be an issue, but depending on how long Sammy is out, you might end up playing an opponent where Landry/Lance will have to play well. He better be up for the challenge. Oh, also -- shave his freaking mustache. It's a disgrace to the world.

Power Rankings

We are going explanation-less, as they are mostly self-explanatory. If you have a complaint, raise it in the comments section, and I'll get back to you. Unless you're KC.

Texas (1-0)
Oklahoma State (1-0)
Missouri (1-0)
Nebraska (1-0)
Baylor (1-0)
Kansas (1-0)
Oklahoma (0-1)
Texas A&M (1-0)
Iowa State (1-0)
Texas Tech (1-0)
Kansas State (1-0)
Colorado (0-1)

I know I changed things up a bunch. I'm expecting a bunch of criticism. It's okay. And just to nip it in the bud, Kansas is as low as it is because the three above them (assuming no one has an issue with Texas or OSU ahead of them) all had more impressive wins. All three played MUCH better teams than a 1-AA team with 3 wins combined in the last 3 years. I think we are better than all three teams, but we'll see.

That's all, for now. I'll be back next week.

Deacon Dump 9/7: Ouch

WakeJake — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 15:49:58 -0000

Not a good weekend for the Deacs and the ACC in general. Expect the Miami-FSU game tonight to be filled with announcers trashing the league. At least the Wake soccer team had a solid weekend. Onto the links...

Reality Bites: ACC still outside looking in
Wake Forest drew its smallest home-opener crowd (27,905) since 2005 and lost to Baylor 24-21. The Deacons' restocked defense couldn't suppress quarterback Robert Griffin or runner Jay Finley, and Baylor intercepted three Riley Skinner passes.

First Down: Five Worst ACC Losses of the Week - Washington Times
4. Baylor 24, Wake Forest 21 -- It's not a good sign for the ACC when a bottom-feeding Big 12 school can win on the road at one of the league's best programs in recent years.

ACC INSIDER: Fifth quarter - The ACC looked out of its league
3. Deacon blues: Wake Forest’s suspect defense actually held up pretty well after giving up a long opening drive. Its downfall turned out to be a disappointing veteran offense that turned the ball over four times and gained less than 300 total yards.

Damontre Harris Update
Damontre Harris of Fayetteville, N.C., will take an official visit to Wake Forest this weekend. He is scheduled for USC on the Sept. 18, Maryland on Sept. 25 and Florida Oct. 16. He also will visit VCU. Harris continues to favor USC.

Stanford Lookalikes!

Mediocre at Best Performance by WFU quarterback Skinner not up to his usual standards
"That's what we're trying to get back to, multiple-set stuff, a lot of different things to look at," Grobe said. "Our counter plays have been pretty good against our defense out of those (wishbone and flexbone) sets and really it's no different than being in the slots. It gives you that look. "But trust me, Riley is not a wishbone quarterback."

No. 3 Wake tops Indiana in marquee matchup - Video highlights

No. 2 Deacons Top No. JMU 3-1 - WAKE FOREST OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE
The second-ranked Wake Forest field hockey team improved to 3-1 for the season with a 3-1 road victory over 12th-ranked James Madison on Sunday.

Randolph's First Collegiate Goal Lifts No. 3 Wake to 2-1 Win Against No. 7 Indiana - WAKE FOREST OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE
Freshman Sean Randolph made his first collegiate goal a memorable one, scoring on a diving header attempt in the 72nd minute to give No. 3 Wake Forest a 2-1 win at No. 7 Indiana on Sunday afternoon at Armstrong Stadium

Mistakes prove costly for Wake Forest - College Football Nation - ESPN
Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe said the Deacs "got what we deserved." "When you turn the ball over as many times as we did, and then you give up as many big plays -- a couple of them for scores on defense -- it’s hard to beat a good football team," Grobe said. "We deserved what we got today and I give Baylor credit for that. I’m not saying that Baylor didn’t play very well."

Steve Kelley | Curry feels rush for Hawks | Seattle Times Newspaper
Put the binoculars on Curry and watch him play his first half in Seattle and it's easy to imagine what the next 16 Sundays are going to be like for the Seahawks. Curry is a show within a show. Watching him rush the quarterback is its own sport. Watching him hit running backs is like watching George Foreman in his prime.