SB Nation - Joe Pawelek

Double-T Nation Daily Diatribe :: 11.26.09

Seth C — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 11:52:59 -0000

Happy Thanksgiving! We're keeping this short and sweet today so we can all get to turkey and fixings. Have a great day and I can certainly say that I'm thankful for all of you guys and gals for visiting DTN and making it such a great place to talk Texas Tech.

I'm probably going to be out for the next couple of days, but I've got a few things scheduled, including Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Win, Prediction Time and the Open Game Day Thread on Saturday.

Briles Would Rather Be In Waco: FWST's Dwain Price writes that Baylor coach Art Briles doesn't sound too excited to be playing at Cowboys Stadium:

"And I hate to be that way,'' Briles said. "We've got a job to do and our job is to go out there and win the football game, and it really doesn't matter where it's played or any of those conditions.

"I wish I could say really it excites me (to play in the Cowboys Stadium). But I know once the game gets going, then all that's out the window and you just concentrate on what's going on.''

Price also writes that the Bears won't mail it in this week despite not qualifying for a bowl. Here's Baylor QB Nick Florence:

"We're playing for a lot,'' Baylor quarterback Nick Florence said. " We're playing for Baylor football, we're playing for each other, we're playing for pride.

"It's unfortunate the bowl is out of the way, but we've still got a lot to play for and to lose out there.''

Baylor Bear and Big 12 Links: LAJ's Adam Zuvanich has a short preview of all of today's games . . . Baylor's LB Joe Pawelek and C J.D. Walton will play in the Shrine Game . . . LAJ's Adam Zuvanich writes that WR Kendall Wright takes on a number of offensive roles with Baylor, including throwing the ball . . . Rivals' Olin Buchanan with a preview of this weekends' Big 12 games . . .

Tairu's Tough Road: LAJ's Courtney Linehan has an excellent article about the many travels of G David Tairu and how he ended up in Lubbock:

It’s Thanksgiving break and the building is empty except for women’s basketball players lifting in the weight room and a few arena staff working in offices upstairs. Tairu practices driving to the basket, each sound hanging in the empty air: the squeak of his sole as he plants and takes off, the grunt as he releases each shot, the soft thud as his feet return to the hardwood and the gentle swoosh as the ball slides through the net.

Tairu won’t be the only Texas Tech basketball player to get in a few extra shots today. Little more than a dozen hours have passed since the team landed back in Lubbock after defeating Stephen F. Austin on Tuesday night, and already several members have come through the gym.

Tairu’s reason for being here, though, is so simple his coaches struggle to describe it. It’s why he is always at the arena on days Tech doesn’t practice, why he patiently added an extra four years to his journey from high school to Division I basketball.

He uses a Bible verse to sum it up, quoting Psalms, 46:10: "Be still and know that I am God."

To say that this is a must-read article would not give it enough credit. Knowing this, I now am absolutely certain that I think the offense should run through Tairu.

Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose :: Baylor Bears Edition

Seth C — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:00:15 -0000

by Sue Ogrocki - AP

about 1 month ago: Texas Tech running back Baron Batch, center, leaps into the end zone for a touchdown against Oklahoma during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game in Lubbock, Texas, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009. Texas Tech won the game 41-13. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

View full size photo »

This weekly feature considers five reasons why Texas Tech will win and five reasons Texas Tech will lose to each opponent. Check back tomorrow for "Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Win :: Baylor Bears Edition". ----- Ed. Note: I really had to hurry to get these up this morning. Apologies in advance for the quality.

Reason #1 :: Bowl Game: This is Baylor's finale for the year and it's only fitting that this is the #1 reason. It's a reason that the most of Texas Tech fans have expressed concern about since the TAMU loss and I still think there's a trust issue with this team. After sky-high wins, this version of the Red Raiders may be prone to letting press-clippings, girlfriends and other things let them know how great they are. There's plenty of talent on Baylor's squad and to discount Baylor because they are Baylor would be a huge mistake.

Reason #2 :: Short and Sweet: QB Nick Florence is a true freshman and he's not playing as bad as you would expect. Florence is a dink and dump sort of passer and he's not the type that likes to throw the ball deep. Florence is 7th in the conference in passing, again as a true freshman, and it will be interesting to see how Ruffin McNeill matches up with Florence in that there is no doubt that McNeill will play the bend-but-do-not-break methodology for this game.

Reason #3 :: Play Making Defense: Most of Baylor's opponents know about LB Joe Pawelek and S Jordan Lake. Both are seniors, Pawelek has 97 tackles (leads team), 2.5 sacks (2nd on team), and 4 TFL (3rd on team), while Lake has 83 tackles (2nd on team). You never underestimate the player that is playing his final collegiate game and is playing for pride. A little momentum could be dangerous thing for Texas Tech and both Pawelek and Lake are momentum makers.

Reason #4 :: Briles Knows Leach: This didn't help Bob Stoops last week, in part because I think Leach changed some things up this week, but there may not be a coach that knows Leach better than Art Briles and I think it showed last year. Of course, last year, QB Robert Griffin led the Baylor offense, which rushed for 229 yards total, while Griffin accounted for 99 yards and 2 TD's on the ground and Jay Finley ran for 105 yards on 10 carries. I know that Baylor lost LT Jason Smith, and it's been a huge loss for Baylor, but the Bears are capable and I think they are even more capable with Briles at the helm.

Reason #5 :: Shutting Down the Spread: I'm still somewhat shocked when I read the score and some of the status, but with Florence in charge, the Bears took down the Missouri Tigers, at Missouri. The subject line is a bit mis-leading in that Baylor really didn't shut down Mizzou, as QB Blaine Gabbert threw for 468 yards and 2 TD's, but the Baylor defense did register 4 sacks for the game and limited the Mizzou running game to 10 yards . . . for the day. The Tigers didn't seem to get their ground game going, and perhaps that's the key for the Red Raiders. Continue to run the ball, where Baylor is giving up 185 yards a game overall, but 230 in losses and only 108 in wins.

Crunching the Numbers :: Baylor Bears Edition

Seth C — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:00:13 -0000

Texas Tech Red Raiders
(7-4, 4-3)

vs.

Baylor Bears
(4-7, 1-6)

Game Information:
Date: November 28, 2009 :: Time: 5:00 p.m. CST :: Weather: Dallas, TX
TV: FSN :: Radio: Affiliates :: Game Cast: Fox Sports

A little short on time due to the holidays. Help me help the rest of you and post any of your initial thoughts in the comments.

CATEGORY	STATISTIC (NCAA RANK, CONF. RANK)	WINNER
TTU Pass Offense vs. BU Pass Defense	390.82 (2, 1) 223.00 (72, 6)
TTU Rush Offense vs. BU Rush Defense	79.36 (114, 12) 185.91 (100, 12)
BU Pass Offense vs. TTU Pass Defense	242.73 (39, 7) 222.45 (70, 5)
BU Rush Offense vs. TTU Rush Defense	100.27 (108, 10) 126.91 (40, 7)
TTU Scoring Offense vs. BU Scoring Defense	38.18 (7, 2) 27.91 (82, 10)
BU Scoring Offense vs. TTU Scoring Defense	21.45 (97, 11) 22.55 (42, 5)

Five Initial Thoughts

One :: Staying Grounded: When I looked at the stats last week, I thought that the Red Raiders would have to play the game of their lives against Oklahoma. The same could be said this week and I hope the team stays grounded. It can happen to you.

Two :: Still Effective Passing: Despite the slew of injuries at the Baylor quarterback position, freshman Nick Florence has still been respectable throwing the ball. Florence busted out for 427 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions at Missouri. He had a rough week against TAMU, but he's more than capable.

Three :: Struggling to Run: The Bears are not quite as bad as Texas Tech, but they're the closest opponent in terms of rushing offense, checking in for 10th in the conference and 100 yards a game. It's been a hodge-podge of runners, including Jay Finley, Jarred Salubi, Terrance Ganaway and Kendall Wright rush the ball.

Four :: Wright Way: WR Kendall Wright has been a bit up-and-down this year and he's averaging 65.4 receiving yards a game, which is good for 9th in the Big 12.

Five :: Defensive Leaders: LB Joe Pawelek and S Jordan Lake are respectively 3rd and 7th in the conference in tackles. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see both of these guys make some plays this week.

Anatomy of Momentum: Scoring After the Fourth-Down Stop

GhostofBigRoy — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:38:31 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Browse more photos »

The Context

Will Muschamp talks a lot about his defense responding to sudden-change situations, calling his players "firemen" when coming onto the field after an offensive turnover. For the offense, the idea is similar, though instead of stopping the opposing team from generating momentum by scoring after a sudden change, the offense intends to consolidate momentum established by the defense with a turnover or a fourth-down stop.

Taking a calculated risk on his own 44 yardline, Art Briles went for it on fourth down on Bayor's second possession, hoping to establish some momentum for the Bears, down 7-0 10 minutes into the game. The Texas defense, having game-planned for the Baylor quick snap on fourth down -- they had seen it on film against Missouri -- did an excellent job of stopping the quarterback sneak, with the defensive line winning the battle at the point of attack to allow Dustin Earnest, who played well replacing the injured Roddrick Muckelroy, to make the first-down saving tackle, giving Texas the ball at the Baylor 44, seeking to consolidate momentum.

The Plays

1st and 10 Baylor 44

Texas lines up in 11 personnel, with EBS on the right side of the line and Cody Johnson on the right side of Colt McCoy. John Chiles is the split end, while James Kirkendoll and Jordan Shipley are at the top of the screen at the slot and flanker positions, respectively. Baylor has two deep safeties, three down linemen, three linebackers, and five defensive backs on the field. Since the Bears are worried about not giving up deep passes, Texas has favorable conditions to run the ball.

Key Shot

Greg Davis dusts off the counter read play that was the staple of the now-defunct WildHorn formation. Once again, the strange thing about this play is that the pulling guard, in this case Michael Huey, seen on the ground here, tries to block the read man, the linebacker standing on the left side of the Texas line. McCoy pulls the ball, as the read man gets upfield and Huey tries to block him instead of leading into the hole, where Adam Ulatoski and the pulling tackle, Kyle Hix, both get their blocks. Once again, the pulling guard tries to block the read man -- the guy optioned off on the play, the point of option football. The end result is that the backside linebacker Joe Pawelek, who could have been blocked by Huey had he led into the hole, ends up making the stop for a two-yard gain.

There's no misdirection in the play, so the offense must account for the backside linebacker, but fails to do so because of the strange obsession with blocking a player already eliminated from the play. Add to it the fact that since Texas started using his play, the pulling player has never sucessfully blocked the read man and it just doesn't make any sense to design the play that way -- Texas might as well just take an offensive lineman off the field, because the scheme effectively eliminates them from having any chance at success.

2nd and 8 Baylor 42

Texas stays in their 11 personnel look, with Kirkendoll and Shipley now at the bottom of the screen and EBS on the left side of the line, with Johnson moving to the left side of McCoy. Notice that Baylor stays in the same defensive look, with two safeties deep and big cushions on the Texas receivers, as well as three down linemen and three linebackers.

Key Shot

Texas runs at the weak side of the Baylor line, where they have only a defensive tackle and a linebacker. It's the inside zone play and notice that Chris Hall moved the defensive tackle three yards off the line of scrimmage, but lost his balance and is now being shed by the defensive tackle, who will eventually make the play. Notice also that the play is pretty well blocked, except that Tray Allen, on the ground in front of the linebacker Pawelek, failed to execute his cut block in space. Johnson picks up three yards.

3rd and 5 Baylor 39

As has been the case for the last several weeks, Dan Buckner enters the game on obvious passing downs, coming in for EBS. Notice that Jordan Shipley is now at split end, with the Baylor defensive back coming up in press coverage. In their two-deep safety look, it appears that Baylor has bracket coverage on Shipley.

Key Shot

Actually, the Baylor cornerback is one-on-one with Shipley, as the left safety turns his shoulders to look inside at the snap -- a strange call by the Baylor defensive coordinator. Shipley beats the cornerback at the line of scrimmage and McCoy delivers a perfect strike to his long-time friend, giving him the opportunity to go up and get the football, which he does. The play goes for 21 yards and a first down.

1st and 10 Baylor 18

This is the only screenshot available, as FSN misses most of the play as the Longhorns go jet tempo. Texas did, however, appear to substitute, as that looks like EBS at the top left of the screen. It also looks like the Longhorns were man blocking on the play, as the offensive line moved the line of scrimmage about 4-5 yards downfield, allowing Johnson an easy gain of five yards on the play.

2nd and 5 Baylor 13

The Longhorns stay in 11 personnel, with EBS on the right side of the line and Shipley and Kirkendoll split wide at the top of the screen, with Chies at split end. Johnson is on the left side of McCoy. Baylor shifts out of their two-deep safety look for the first time on the drive, with a single-high safety on this play. The Bears do stay with their three-down look and a linebacker standing at the line of scrimmage, with either three other linebackers on the field or a safety lined up as a linebacker.

Key Shot

Given the nature of the Texas offense, it's highly possible, and in fact highly probable, that Texas comes to the line of scrimmage with a running play called. Since Baylor has seven men in the box, a look they haven't shown much in the early part of the game, McCoy probably checks into a quick throw outside, as there is no safety on the wide side of the field. The pass goes out to Shipley, who simply has to beat his man and receive a good block from Kirkendoll to pick up a nice gain. Shipley doesn't exactly beat his man, but gets by him enough to pick up seven yards. Much maligned for his blocking earlier in the season, Kirkendoll demonstrates the blocking effort that has helped him regain his starting role.

1st and Goal Baylor 6

Once again, the Longhorns go jet tempo and under center, while the FSN production crew misses the start of the play. It's the inside zone play and Baylor doesn't look like they were able to get set particularly well.

Key Shot

The Longhorn offensive line wins at the point of attack, as Hall does an excellent job of turning the shoulders of the defensive tackle in a combo block with Huey, then gets to the second level to block Pawelek. Johnson has a gaping hole to run through and simply has to knock Jordan Lake backwards, which he does, to find the end zone. Six yards on the touchdown run for Johnson and the Longhorns go up 14-0.

Final Totals

Six plays, 44 yards, 2:08 expired. McCoy completed two passes for 28 yards, both caught by Jordan Shipley, while picking up two yards on one carry. Three carries for 14 yards and a touchdown by Cody Johnson. Two good blocks by Hall and one good block on the perimeter by Kirkendoll.

Final Verdict

The Longhorns did an excellent job of consolidating momentum by marching down the field after stopping the Bears on fourth down. At this point in the game, after scoring on two of their first three possessions and stopping Baylor twice, once at the goalline on the interception by Aaron Williams and the second time on the aforementioned fourth-down stop, any hope of springing an upset is essentially gone from minds of the Baylor team. In fact, Art Briles commented after the game that this group, being relatively young and inexperienced, just doesn't respond particularly well to adversity.

The offensive philosophy of Greg Davis was also apparent on this drive -- take what the defense gives you. Last week, Chip Brown and Sean Adams were discussing Davis on their radio show and Adams commented that all of the coaches he had played for generally tried to attack opponent weaknesses: any weak players, back ups who came in to replace injured starters, etc. Davis, however, places a higher value on letting the defense dictate where the ball should go, hence all the short passes out to wide receivers that operate as part of the running game. On this drive, Davis ran the ball some against the three down linemen of Baylor, but also took advantage of single coverage against Shipley to throw a pass farther down the field. The other pass on the drive was most likely a checkdown by McCoy once Baylor started to run the ball. Though the philosophy may let opponents dictate what the offense will do at times, this drive shows just how successful it can be to run the ball against weaker fronts and pass the ball against stronger fronts.

This drive also emphasized that the jet tempo offense, which generally features running plays from under center, has a place in the offense, as the touchdown appeared to catch Baylor before they were properly aligned and allowed some rare drive blocking on Johnson's second run. The Longhorns ran a bootleg pass and tried to throw a quick screen from the jet tempo offense, so Davis is also cognizant of breaking tendency at times to keep teams from teeing off on the run when Texas speeds it up and gets under center.

Baylor Preview: Battle With The Bears

dimecoverage — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 08:00:21 -0000

Thanks to John Werner, Waco Tribune-Herald, for a look at the Baylor Bears.

The rule about bears is their unpredictability. - Anonymous

1. The loss of Griffin was tough, but last week in Columbia Nick Florence had as great a performance as any quarterback in the Big 12 this entire season. Why is he doing so well right now? What will be his challenges against Texas?
Florence is a smart guy, and he's learned the offense better every week, and it paid off against Missouri. He was really in sync with his receivers, and his passes were crisp. The Longhorns will likely present a much greater pass rush than Missouri, and Florence probably won't have as much time to throw.

2. Talk about the receivers. Who are Florence’s favorite targets?
Kendall Wright caught 10 passes against Missouri, while David Gettis caught eight. Lanear Sampson is another target. They've all got good speed.

3. Talk about the offensive line. What are their strengths? What are their weaknesses? How has the protection been for the quarterback?
Baylor's offensive line has been solid in pass protection, but has a hard time pushing people back on runs.

4. Talk about the secondary. Who is will be matched up with Jordan Shipley? Do the defensive backs have the speed to keep up with the Texas receivers?
If Baylor doesn't get a decent pass rush, it's going to be tough for the defensive backs to match up with Texas' receivers. It's hard to say who they will match up against Shipley.

5. Joe Pawelek isn’t big or fast, but he is one of the impact players on this team? What makes him so scary for opponents?
He's intelligent and has great instincts. He never gives up on a play, and has a knack for getting interceptions.

6. Phil Taylor had a lot of pre-season hype. How has he contributed this season?
Phil's been double-teamed a lot, and hasn't made a lot of big plays. Other defensive linemen like Jason Lamb and Tracy Robertson have made more big plays.

7. What matchup between Baylor's offense and Texas' defense concerns you the most and which one gives you the most confidence? Between Baylor's defense and Texas' offense?
The Bears will have a hard time running against Texas' defensive line. Baylor's secondary will have a hard time containing McCoy and Shipley.

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:15:23 -0000

As we enter the second game of what Gary Pinkel is calling Mizzou's second season, let's take a look at where Art Briles' Baylor Bears present a threat, and where they've been hurt worst by the loss of Robert Griffin to a season-ending knee injury.

It was supposed to be different this year. Thanks to Hot Tub Griffin III, Baylor was going to threaten for a bowl game. They were actually exciting to watch for once, and Hot Tub was Rock M Nation's unanimous favorite non-Mizzou player.

Okay, you twisted my arm...one last time this season...

One last moment of silence, please. The knee injury that robbed Baylor (and us) of nine games of Hot Tub greatness* has left Baylor lifeless on offense, and despite an increase in overall team speed on offense and a relatively salty defense, the Bears sit at 3-5, 0-4 in the Big 12. Their best chance at a Big 12 win--a trip to Iowa State--ended with an easy, 14-point loss. We have all died a little inside without Hot Tub in our lives...and Baylor has died on the outside.

* Just for effect, I should once again point out that Griffin PLAYED THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN STATE GAME (well, all of the game that the first-string played) with a torn ACL suffered on the first possession, attempted three rushes, and went 16-for-19 passing with 226 yards and three touchdowns. With a torn ACL. God I love that guy.

Alright, now that we're past that, it's time to look at the team Baylor does have, and the amount of threat that they represent for Mizzou at 1pm on Faurot Field.

Offense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

We're going to start with Baylor's overall "+" ranking, presented as we've presented data for every opponent, but this comes with a rather obvious disclaimer: Baylor's last five games without Griffin have shown a different type of team than the one that made up a chunk of these ratings. We'll take a look at Baylor, pre- and post-Griffin injury, after the initial spew of data.

Baylor Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	BU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.7 (40)	111.7 (35)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	104.7 (53)	104.8 (45)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	129.7 (29)	122.4 (33)

Rushing S&P+	133.2 (5)	102.7 (63)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (73)	118.3 (30)

Standard Downs S&P+	114.6 (33)	112.5 (35)
Passing Downs S&P+	123.6 (35)	115.0 (36)

Red Zone S&P+	128.6 (22)	104.4 (61)

Q1 S&P+	136.2 (15)	95.5 (77)
Q2 S&P+	106.0 (63)	135.8 (12)
Q3 S&P+	124.5 (26)	112.2 (41)
Q4 S&P+	105.4 (55)	115.8 (34)

1st Down S&P+	122.2 (20)	108.0 (49)
2nd Down S&P+	127.0 (22)	112.3 (41)
3rd Down S&P+	101.1 (74)	113.8 (38)

Line Yards+	105.9 (52)	101.6 (61)
Close Sack Rate+	95.7 (73)	93.3 (72)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	106.7 (57) / 108.3 (56)	101.9 (57) / 123.0 (37)

Analysis after the jump.

Now, let's look at the Baylor offense with and without Hot Tub III.

Baylor Offense: With & Without Griffin
Category	With Griffin	W/out Griffin
Close S&P+	120.3	89.1
Close SR+	111.1	92.2
Close PPP+	129.5	84.1

Rushing S&P+	169.5	74.0
Passing S&P+	89.0	94.3

Standard Downs S&P+	132.3	82.0
Passing Downs S&P+	79.8	113.4

Red Zone S&P+	150.7	102.8

Q1 S&P+	169.9	98.6
Q2 S&P+	77.1	96.4
Q3 S&P+	183.6	80.7
Q4 S&P+	87.6	96.7

First, it is worth noting that BU's actually a better passing team with Florence than with Griffin. That's not the biggest shocker in the world, but it does show that Florence is at least solid. And he's got a pretty deep WR corps (deep in that the #2 guy is about equal to the #6 guy) to work with, plus a nice, offensive-minded head coach. Also, for whatever reason, they're better in both Q2 and Q4 with Florence than they were with Griffin. You figure that one out, as I have no idea; of course, they are infinitely worse in Q1 and Q3, so usually the game is lost by the time Q4 (or even Q2) comes about, it appears. Mizzou might do Baylor some favors, as they are usually not particularly great in Q1, but it appears that Q3 is death for the Bears (strange, considering BU outscored Nebraska 10-0 in Q3 last week).

When Baylor Has the Ball...
Baylor Rushing	Advantage: Missouri
Baylor Passing	Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Baylor:	Q1
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2-Q4

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. Where applicable, I'll look at post-Griffin numbers.

Close Success Rate+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+ (though Passing Downs is close)
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st Down, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for Baylor...

Q1 S&P+
2nd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Without Griffin, Baylor has found the going a lot rougher in terms of utilizing their other weapons--WR Kendall Wright, RB Jay Finley, etc. They still have at least a decent offensive line, but that line will need to execute against Missouri's rapidly improving defensive line, and they will need to generate some early points, as Missouri assumes more and more of an advantage as the game wears on. And if Baylor gets handed any easy opportunities through turnovers or special teams, they simply must convert those opportunities into touchdowns.

Quarterback

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Nick Florence: 84-for-147 passing (57.1%), 942 yards (6.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT

So...any great nicknames for Nick Florence yet? He needs you now more than ever. Really, Florence hasn't been too bad passing the ball. He hasn't been great, but considering two of his four Big 12 starts have come against Oklahoma and Nebraska, two of the three best defenses in the conference (this week, they play the fourth-best, followed by the overall best next week against Texas), his numbers haven't been too bad. He is indeed just a redshirt freshman, and he was thrown into a no-win situation; granted he indeed has no wins, but he could be a lot worse. Let's just say that he's absolutely no worse than Blizzle Szyzzle, Blake Szymanski. No offense intended, Mr. Blizzle.

Running Back

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

Jay Finley: 42 carries, 261 yards (6.2 per carry), 2 TD; 4 receptions, 24 yards (6.0 per catch)
Jarred Salubi: 42 carries, 249 yards (5.9 per carry), 2 TD; 17 receptions, 134 yards (7.9 per catch)
Terrance Ganaway: 34 carries, 134 yards (3.9 per carry), 3 TD; 1 reception, 13 yards

Between Jay Finley and Jarred Salubi, Baylor has managed a pretty decent first-string RB this year. Unfortunately, most of their success came early in the season. Finley had 121 yards on eight carries against UConn, while Salubi had 131 in seven carries against Northwestern State. Since Griffin's injury, Finley has managed 49 yards in just 20 carries (2.5 per carry) while recovering from a sprained ankle and pulled quad, while Salubi has only been slightly better at 118 yards in 35 carries (3.4 per carry). Injuries haven't helped here, but the injury that hurt most of all was obviously Griffin's. Without the dual threat QB, teams are able to focus a lot more on the RBs.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Joining [Kendall] Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

WR Kendall Wright: 40 catches, 448 yards (11.2 per catch), 2 TD; 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3 per carry), 1 TD
WR David Gettis: 31 catches, 426 yards (13.7 per catch), 3 TD
WR Ernest Smith: 26 catches, 280 yards (10.8 per catch); 1 carry, 5 yards
WR Lanear Sampson: 15 catches, 130 yards (8.7 per catch), 1 TD

TE Justin Akers: 14 catches, 124 yards (8.9 per catch), 1 TD
TE Brad Taylor: 8 catches, 90 yards (11.2 per catch)

In Baylor's first game post-Griffin, Kendall Wright had 125 yards in nine catches against Kent State, suggesting there was life even with a dry hot tub. However, in the past four games he has managed only 16 catches for 134 yards and has scored zero touchdowns (of course, Baylor as a whole has scored only four, so that's not saying a lot). Justin Akers (against OSU) and David Gettis (against Nebraska) have stepped up recently, but until more than one weapon shows up for a given game, Baylor's whole aerial attack is grounded. Wow, I did not intend that weak pun there. C'est la vie.

Offensive Line

Now [Jason] Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

Looking at Baylor's Line Yardage and Sack Rates, you get the distinct impression that this isn't a particularly good or bad line. In fact, with rankings around 60th in all categories, you could say the line is actually perfectly average. Unfortunately for Baylor, Mizzou's defensive line has been improving significantly in conference play and is quite likely well above average right now, especially with Aldon Smith surging and a much less mobile quarterback looking for open receivers. This matchup has gone from a draw to a distinct Mizzou advantage in recent weeks.

---

Defense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Baylor Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	BU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	100.0 (60)	106.2 (57)
Close Success Rate+	94.2 (84)	103.6 (58)
Close PPP+	109.0 (44)	112.8 (56)

Rushing S&P+	86.3 (98)	102.1 (67)
Passing S&P+	118.4 (29)	110.8 (51)

Standard Downs S&P+	99.5 (63)	105.0 (60)
Passing Downs S&P+	109.1 (47)	109.7 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	122.7 (32)	70.7 (114)

Q1 S&P+	89.0 (86)	117.9 (50)
Q2 S&P+	102.5 (63)	100.2 (73)
Q3 S&P+	109.8 (45)	111.9 (52)
Q4 S&P+	101.1 (61)	102.4 (65)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (58)	102.6 (66)
2nd Down S&P+	95.2 (75)	106.6 (64)
3rd Down S&P+	109.1 (50)	118.9 (38)

Line Yards+	87.1 (101)	101.3 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	89.9 (78)	173.9 (16)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	79.1 (93) / 115.6 (45)	243.4 (8) / 124.7 (41)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage(ish): Baylor
Best Time for Baylor:	Q2-Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q1, Q4

With Gabbert looking much, much healthier against Colorado, we can at least tentatively put an end to the "injured Gabbert" period. So, since we did the "pre-and-post" treatment for Baylor, should we do the same for Mizzou? We know that Mizzou's offensive stats plummeted with Gabbert's ankle sprain, but we also know that the defenses Mizzou faced at that time were much better. Luckily, we have "+" numbers to account for the difference in competition level! So here are the numbers for when Blaine Gabbert had one and two healthy ankles (the "one healthy ankle" stats are for the last three quarters of the Nebraska game and all of the Texas and OSU games):

Missouri Offense: Healthy vs Injured Gabbert
Category	Healthy #11	Injured #11
Close S&P+	107.1	94.3
Close SR+	101.2	95.3
Close PPP+	114.1	93.1

Rushing S&P+	85.4	117.1
Passing S&P+	119.3	81.6

Standard Downs S&P+	103.4	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	90.9	98.2

Red Zone S&P+	70.6	108.4

Q1 S&P+	93.7	116.3
Q2 S&P+	91.3	107.2
Q3 S&P+	108.2	31.5
Q4 S&P+	101.7	81.4

Mizzou was significantly better at both rushing and red zone offense when Gabbert was hurt, but I think there is a bit of noise in the statistics there. Mizzou got a lot of credit for the touchdown they scored on their lone red zone trip against Texas, and that balanced out their craptastic execution against OSU. Either way, that's a damn small sample size. Meanwhile, the rushing success didn't seem to have anything to do with Gabbert limping around--it was seemingly more a result of Missouri's offensive line simply blocking better (and, potentially, their running backs running better).

Either way, we're definitely working with a small sample size here, but there are some conclusions that can be reached: 1) while Missouri's second-half execution against Colorado left something (okay, a lot) to be desired, they are still a much, much better second-half team with a healthy Gabbert. It's almost as if Missouri was able to disguise Gabbert's injury with good game-planning, but by the second half, they were out of tricks. Now, with Gabbert throwing more accurate passes and pulling down a couple of keepers, Missouri has a lot more options. Also, and this is some incredible statistical analysis here, 2) Missouri is a much better passing team when their quarterback can actually hit his targets.

With that in mind, let's look at Missouri's "healthy Gabbert" advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+
Sack Rates+

Baylor's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2 S&P+

With a healthy Gabbert, the passing game seems to be a draw, as do Q3 and Q4 S&P+ and 1st Down S&P+.

Defensive Line

Beyond [Penn State transfer Phil] Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

DE/DT Jason Lamb: 21.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 2 Blocked Kicks
DT Trey Bryant: 15.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 3 QBH
DE Zac Scotton: 12.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Phil Taylor: 11.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 QBH, 2 Blocked Kicks
DE Tracy Robertson: 10.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 3 QBH

So...has vaunted transfer Phil Taylor actually made a difference? Baylor's pass defense has actually been pretty solid, but their rushing defense has been horrible. If Mizzou's offensive line was able to open up holes for Derrick Washington and company and protect Blaine Gabbert from Colorado pass rushers, there's nothing saying they won't be able to do the same (and better) against Baylor. Maybe Taylor really is a difference-maker, but the rest of the line has been just terrible? Jason Lamb, who has been playing at Baylor since Grant Teaff was coach, has put up some decent numbers--as good as those of Mizzou's Jaron Baston and Dominique Hamilton--but he's pretty much it. If he's not making a nice play, then Baylor's relying on the LBs.

Linebackers

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Joe Pawelek: 52.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 2 PBU
Antonio Jones: 47.0 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
Antonio Johnson: 41.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU
Chris Francis: 21.0 tackles
Elliot Coffey: 20.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Earl Patin: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

I really was pretty impressed with Joe Pawelek last year, but while he's been rock solid this year, it doesn't seem like he's been quite the playmaker I was expecting. He's still good, though, and the Two Antonios have combined with Pawelek to form what is certainly a decent unit. As I put it in the offseason, Baylor has struggled in certain areas (i.e. run defense), but they're not the reason why. And they're fast enough to do decent things in pass coverage.

Secondary

Jordan Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

S Jordan Lake: 48.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF
S Jeremy Williams: 25.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
CB Clifton Odom: 22.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 4 PBU
S Byron Landor: 22.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBU
CB Tim Atchison: 21.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 PBU
CB Chance Casey: 18.5 tackles, 2 INT, 1 QBH, 4 PBU
S Mike Hicks: 12.5 tackles

If Pawelek hasn't been quite what I thought this year, Jordan Lake REALLY hasn't been what I thought. He was a pretty strong, disruptive player in 2008; this year, he's just a tackler. One forced fumble, one tackle for loss, and no interceptions? Huh. In all, though, Baylor's pass defense really has been pretty decent this year; I mean, ranking 47th isn't amazing by any means, but with a sieve for a run defense, the secondary has been the least of their problems. Can you tell I haven't at all been impressed with their defensive line?

Special Teams

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Punt Returns Rank: 22nd (Krys Buerck: 12 Returns, 7.5 Avg)
Net Punting Rank: 89th (Derek Epperson: 45.2 Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 39th (Terrance Williams: 13 Returns, 26.0 Avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 44th

Field Goals: 4-for-8 (Long: 41) (113th)
PATs: 17-for-18

If the special teams play involves a Baylor player with the ball in his hands, running upfield, then Baylor's special teams unit is pretty solid. If it involves somebody in a Baylor uniform kicking...not so much. Derek Epperson ranks in the nation's top 20 in overall punt average, but their net average has been hurt by two blocked punts, and they're giving up almost 17 yards per return (with one touchdown). Ouch. And Ben Parks has been far from great as place-kicker. But hey, Krys Buerck and Terrance Williams are bright spots. That's something.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over. With Blaine Gabbert's arm, I love the idea of going deep quite a few times, but with the advantages Missouri will have in other regards, Missouri really just needs to avoid Passing Downs disaster, and they should be alright. It's rare one of my keys is "stay relatively conservative and don't do anything stupid," but that does appear to be the case here. I like to surprise myself sometimes.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. (SPREAD DOESN'T WORK NEED FULLBACK RAWR!!!!! ET CETERA. Just thought I'd get that out of the way so that doesn't come up and I don't have to point out that Missouri's red zone offense has been just fine in the spread the last few years.) Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

Prediction

Clearly this is Missouri's game to lose. It is Baylor at home, after all. However, even without Robert Griffin, this Baylor team has more weapons and team speed than previous Bears iterations, and if Missouri lets them hang around, loses the turnover battle, gets some bad bounces, allows a big play or two, etc., Baylor can absolutely win this game. As long as Missouri plays average or better, they should move to 6-3 and bowl eligibility. The numbers say Mizzou by 16.5, so we'll say Mizzou 30, Baylor 13. Run the ball well, rip off a big play or two, don't commit any awful turnovers, and let Mizzou's defensive weapons--Sean Weatherspoon, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, etc.--make the plays they can make.

Revisiting Baylor

Husker Mike — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 11:53:20 -0000

More photos » by Rod Aydelotte - AP

When Robert Griffin tore his ACL against Northwestern State last month, it also tore apart the dreams of a breakthrough season for the Bears. (AP Photo/Waco Tribune Herald, Rod Aydelotte)

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Baylor certainly started season on the right note, going 3-1 in the non-conference schedule including a 24-21 upset of Wake Forest in the season opener. But then the Bears took a turn for the worst when Robert Griffin tore his ACL. This month, Baylor has only scored 24 points in three games, a number that looks unlikely to change much with the Blackshirts coming for a visit this weekend.

It's not just the loss of Robert Griffin that has "da Bearsh" reeling. Running back Jay Finley has been injured along with defensive tackle Phil Taylor. In that light, it might seem irrelevant to look at our season preview of Baylor, but let's review it again.

During the first twelve years of the Big XII, Baylor established themselves as the doormat of the conference in football. Some even suggested that Baylor be removed from the Big XII, feeling it was hopeless for the Bears to ever be able to compete. Certainly it's unclear whether Baylor would have ever been invited to join the Big XII if it wasn't for the efforts former Texas governor (and Baylor alumn) Ann Richards. But a funny thing happened in 2008. Baylor football showed signs of life.

Baylor hired former Houston coach Art Briles to take over for Guy Morriss, and convinced his prized recruit, quarterback Robert Griffin to sign with the Bears. The season started in typical Baylor fashion, losing 41-13 to Baylor. But two weeks later, the Bears caught the notice of the nation by walloping Washington State 45-17 as Robert Griffin ran for 217 yards. Baylor would go on to finish 4-8 and break out of the Big XII doghouse by defeating Iowa State and Texas A&M rather handily. From that squad, the Bears return 18 starters in 2009; a scary proposition for the rest of the conference.

Robert Griffin returns at quarterback after a stellar true freshman season, being named the Big XII offensive freshman of the year. A dual threat wizard, he rushed for 843 yards and 13 touchdowns, and threw for 2091 yards, 15 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. He set an NCAA freshman record by throwing 209 passes in a row without an interception, nearly breaking the Big XII mark of 213. That's downright scary. Then consider his speed: he's a legitimate track star who hopes to run in the 2012 London Olympics.

That's freaky scary. I guess for Nebraska's sake, it's probably better to have Baylor on the schedule for Griffin's freshman and sophomore seasons, as opposed to his junior and senior seasons.

But Baylor isn't a one-trick pony; running back Jay Finley did outrush Griffin last season, adding seven touchdowns to the mix. He'll ensure balance in the Bears offense for his junior season. Griffin's primary targets in the passing game will be sophomore Kendall Wright, with 649 yards and five touchdowns last season, and senior David Gettis, a former track star in his own right.

Up front, the Bears return two starters, senior right guard James Barnard and senior center J.D. Walton. They'll miss all-American left tackle Jason Smith, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams with the #2 pick this spring. Two junior college transfers will take over at tackle, junior right tackle Marquis Franklin and junior left tackle Danny Watkins. Watkins is a 24 year old Canadian who took up football a couple of years ago and became a junior college all-American.

If you were paying attention to the preseason all-Big XII teams, you might have been surprised that Baylor had more first team selections than Nebraska did. Here's the scary thing: they're all on defense. Up front, the Bears will be led by senior defensive end Jason Lamb and junior defensive tackle Phil Taylor. Taylor, who transferred from Penn State after getting into an on-campus fight, was named preseason newcomer of the year.

All three linebackers return, including all-Big XII senior middle linebacker Joe Pawelek, who had 128 tackles and six interceptions last season. Bookmarking Pawelek are the Antonios: senior Antonio Jones and junior Antonio Johnson.

In the secondary, two part time starters return at cornerback in juniors Antareis Bryan and Tim Atchison, but the star is senior all-Big XII safety Jordan Lake, who merely added 97 tackles and three interceptions last season. Senior Jeremy Williams will man the other safety spot.

Last year's Baylor squad got people's attention by scaring Connecticut, Nebraska, and Missouri last season. Just before Thanksgiving, the Bears beat A&M, thus ensuring that A&M can now be referred to as the "new Baylor" of the Big XII, since the Bears are no longer the conference doormat. This year, they get UConn and the Huskers at home. The schedule sets up a scary Halloween matchup for the Huskers with the Bears, who might finally be shaking the "Bad News Bears" reputation this season.

Poll

What happens when the Huskers visit Baylor on Halloween?

14%

The Bears go down in flames, much like David Koresh's compound

47 votes

54%

Just like last year, the Huskers find a way to win this game

177 votes

19%

Baylor finally breaks through and wins a close one

65 votes

11%

Baylor wins in a blowout, meaning that every Big XII team has embarrased Nebraska this decade.

37 votes

326 votes | Poll has closed

Postgame Reaction: Texas Tech

TB — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 22:04:03 -0000

I almost couldn't bring myself to write this. None of the three losses this season has been fun to write about, but at least in all of them -- save maybe the ULL game -- there were things we could point to and say "that might be a glimmer of hope."

I got nothing for you from this one.

K-State just got dominated in every phase of the game, and the 66-14 final score doesn't even come close to showing how thoroughly Texas Tech dominated this game. When a school like Tech sets new records for offensive proficiency against you, it's a clear sign that you played really, really poorly.

Despite my overall dejection, there are a couple talking points from last night's game that should probably be discussed. First, what the hell were we doing in a 3-4 defense? I know Bill Snyder said earlier in the week that we might rush one and drop 10; was this his version of that? Apparently, the theory was that, with four linebackers who may blitz on any given play, we might be able to create confusion on the offensive line and get some pressure. Unfortunately, all that happened was we'd have four or five guys run headlong into one of Tech's 6'6", 320-pound monsters while Sticks Sheffield got a manicure before delivering a strike to one of his 10 or 11 receivers who would then break six tackles on their way to a 50+ yard score. While we haven't got any pressure with our four-man front in the games prior to last night, I don't think the week of the Texas Tech game is the week to try and introduce a new scheme. Stick with what you do and try to execute it well, and work on some tackling fundamentals.

While it probably wouldn't have changed much given the result of the game, Tech had a big turning point on its first drive. Against any sane coach, K-State would have forced a punt, forcing the Red Raiders into a fourth and one in their own territory. Of course, Mike Leach is not any sane coach, and his 180-pound quarterback picked up that yard easily on a sneak. Had we forced a punt there, things might have been different. As in, the final may have been 59-14.

Offensively, it was clear that we were trying to go with the grind it out approach to control the clock and keep Tech off the field. Of course, it didn't work, because to run the clock you have to pick up first downs, which was something we didn't do last night. There's not much to analyze here, because exactly nothing worked last night. I won't even discuss the fact that Grant Gregory was pulled in favor of Carson Coffman. It didn't matter. We can only hope that last night was one of those games that has a tendency to happen when you play at night in Lubbock, and not an indication of things to come.

That's enough about that game. Hit the jump for what it means, where we're going, a look at our previous opponents, and the Big 12 roundup.

What it means and where we're going...

Like I said, we can hope it just means that we were the next in a long line of blowout victims in night games in Lubbock. Probably not, but that's all we have right now. More likely, it shows us that, while our defensive schemes and tackling may be improved over last year, they're not improved to the point where they can contain elite athletes in a superior scheme. Unlike last year, we were actually in position to make some tackles against Tech. However, in all-too-familiar fashion, we didn't actually make those tackles when the opportunity presented itself.

Next week is an important home game against Texas A&M. While the Aggies are a lot better team than they were last season, this still ranks second only to Colorado as our best chance for a victory the rest of the season. As we all know all too well, we're not going to a bowl game this season, so our only hope is to see some week-to-week improvement. This week was obviously about 10 steps in the wrong direction, so next week is the time to start making that up.

Previous Opponents

Massachusetts dropped its first game to an FCS opponent yesterday when it lost, 43-27, to Delaware. The Minutemen are now 3-2, and 1-1 in the Colonial Athletic Conference. They were ranked No. 12 in FCS last week.

UCLA dropped its second straight game since beating K-State when it lost to Oregon, 24-10, yesterday. The loss was even more painful because Oregon's starting quarterback, Jeremiah Masoli, didn't play. The Bruins are now 3-2, and winless through two Pac-10 conference games.

Louisiana snapped out of its offensive funk to drop North Texas, 38-24, in Lafayette, La. The Ragin' Cajuns scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to rally for the win, which moves them to 3-2, and 1-0 in Sun Belt action (actually, 1-1, considering that Nebraska is now an unofficial member of the Sun Belt).

Tennessee Tech...who cares. The only question is how badly they would lose to Texas Tech.

Iowa State: See below.

Big 12 Roundup

Nebraska 27, Missouri 12

Rarely do games swing as wildly as this one did, but looks can be deceiving. While one may surmise that Missouri was dominating this game through three quarters, they had been simply benefitting from Nebraska mistakes as much as anything. The Tigers scored two points on a safety after a bad snap on a punt, then had two other scoring drives that totalled 49 yards for 10 points. A good part of Missouri's offensive struggles were due to Blaine Gabbert's obvious gimpiness after Ndamukong Suh landed on his right leg. Call me crazy, but he was almost a non-factor running after that, and his throws looked labored as he planted and pushed off that leg.

Overall, I'm not sure what this game says about both teams. It would be a stretch to read too much into a game played in terrible weather conditions, so I'd urge caution on assessing both teams. Missouri probably isn't as bad as it looked in the fourth quarter, and Nebraska was truly awful for three-fourths of this game, so I'd hold off on anointing Nebraska as back and Missouri as finished.

Up next: Missouri vs. Oklahoma State (Stillwater, Okla., Sat. 10/17); Nebraska vs. Texas Tech (Lincoln, Neb., Sat. 10/17)

For more: Rock M Nation, Corn Nation

KU 41, Iowa State 36

Yet another game of almost for Iowa State. The Cyclones shredded KU's defense for 512 total yards, and had they been able to kick a ball worth a damn, would have forced overtime in this game (ceteris paribus, obviously, but they missed two PATs and had a FG try fail on a bad hold). Austen Arnaud looked nothing like he did last week at Farmageddon, throwing for 295 yards and two scores. It wasn't enough, though, because the Cyclone defense didn't have an answer for Todd Reesing, Kerry Meier and Dez Briscoe. The beaks are clearly going to score some points this year, which will be a requirement considering their defense is playing very poorly right now.

Up next: Iowa State vs. Baylor (Ames, Iowa, Sat. 10/17); KU vs. Colorado (Boulder, Colo., Sat. 10/17)

For more: Rock Chalk Talk, Clone Chronicles

Oklahoma 33, Baylor 7

While the score indicates from watching this one that OU beat Baylor easily, the action on the field wasn't quite so clear. The Sooners led only 14-7 at halftime, and the restlessness throughout the day at Owen Field was palpable. Oklahoma fans are not happy with offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson, but it's the inexperienced offensive line that is at the root of the problem as much as anything. Sam Bradford reappeared for the Sooners and threw for 389 yards. For the Bears' part, Nick Florence played fairly well at QB, leading Art Briles' offense down the field on a few drives, but coming up empty when it mattered. Briles is turning the tide in Baylor, but it's a big tide to turn.

Up next: Oklahoma vs. Texas (Dallas, Texas, Sat. 10/17); Baylor vs. Iowa State (Ames, Iowa, Sat. 10/17)

For more: Crimson and Cream Machine

Oklahoma State 36, Texas A&M 31

Playing without standout wide receiver Dez Bryant, the Cowboys eked out a win in College Station against the improving Aggies. Oklahoma State put up 448 total yards against A&M, and limited the high-powered TAMU offense to 382, its lowest output of the season. Zac Robinson played well even without Bryant as a target, averagine 11.2 yards per attempt. On the ground, Keith Toston clipped of five yards per carry for the Pokes.

Up next: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri (Stillwater, Okla., Sat. 10/17); Texas A&M vs. K-State (Manhattan, Kan., Sat. 10/17)

For more: I Am The 12th Man

Texas 38, Colorado 14

The Longhorns were in full survive-and-advance mode, not waking up until the second half after Colorado had built a stunning 14-3 lead. Still, for a team looking to win a national title, the Horns did exactly what they needed to do by getting the win. Jordan Shipley was the spark for Texas, scoring on a 39-yard reception and a 74-yard punt return. Interestingly, Dan Hawkins took a page out of Ron Prince's playbook and burned backup QB Tyler Hanson's redshirt in the second half. It was an exceedingly odd move, given that Texas had clearly turned the momentum and it was pretty clear Colorado would not be making a comeback. Will Hanson be the Buffs' QB for the rest of the season, or will we be back to Cody "Dying Duck for an INT" Hawkins next week?

Up next: Texas vs. Oklahoma (Dallas, Texas, Sat. 10/17); Colorado vs. KU (Boulder, Colo., Sat. 10/17)

Thought of the Week

I wish referees would use a little discretion in deciding whether to call pass rushers for personal fouls based on a blow to the head. Watch most quarterbacks after a touchdown. Often, they'll celebrate it by running up to someone and butting their helmet together. Just as an illustration, I saw Colt McCoy do it last night. If the pass rusher makes incidental contact with the helmet that is no more forceful than a celebratory head-butt, the ref should keep his flag in his pants. Just my $0.02. I bring this up because Baylor's Joe Pawelek got called for helmet-to-helmet contact with Bradford yesterday on a play where I'm not sure Bradford even realized he got hit.

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:46:41 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

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• A possible matchup tonight between Brandon LaFell of LSU and Joe Haden of Florida is the most intriguing one of the day. Haden can get out of position, something a heady receiver like LaFell can take advantage of. Haden is really good against the run, so he'll test LaFell's blocking ability. LaFell dominated this matchup last season.

This will also be a good game to see what offensive tackle Ciron Black (LSU) and Carlos Dunlap (Florida) are worth. Both have been having ordinary seasons, especially Dunlap. Black is a strong blocker so Dunlap will have to use his initial quickness more today.

In general, LSU's top prospects have been average this season. Running back Charles Scott finally broke a big run last week, but he's slow to the hole. End Rahim Alem has been able to get after the passer and defensive tackle Al Woods has been non-existant. Each could turn their draft fortunes around today.

• Another week and another chance for Mississippi's Jevan Snead to try and prove he's an elite talent. His struggles this year have been plenty noted, but things won't get any easier against Alabama tonight. Snead needs to rely less on his arm strength and use his brain more. Alabama will bring a lot of pressure and Snead's resolve will be tested.

Also in this game, watch for Rebels defensive end Greg Hardy to have a big game. Alabama's offensive tackles are just average so Hardy could have a big game.

• The Ohio State front four is impressive and filled with NFL-caliber players. Chief among them are ends Cameron Heyward and Thaddeus Gibson. Against the pass, particularly Gibson, they are terrors. Today against Wisconsin, they can show how good they are against the run. Sophomore John Clay is a bulldozer of a back who is hard to take down.

• Oklahoma State left tackle Russell Okung can display his dominance today when the Cowboys play Texas A&M. Von Miller has become one of the nation's top sack artists and he'll test Okung's quickness and ability to move his feet.

• Last week Iowa offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga showed few sigs of rust. However, that was against Arkansas State. Today against Michigan the junior might face all-conference end Brandon Graham. The senior can get low around the edge, which could give Bulaga problems.

• Against the duo rushing attack of Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray of Oklahoma, Baylor inside linebacker Joe Pawelek will have his hands full today. This could be a showcase game for the senior sleeper. He has some athletic deficiencies but makes a lot of plays.

• This won't be a game where he can show his ability against the pass, but Florida State's Patrick Robinson is a player to watch today against Georgia Tech. He's considered a one-dimensional player but will get to show what he can do against the run. Robinson has looked good this season against the pass.

• Georgia defensive tackles Jeff Owens and Geno Atkins have been a big disappointment this season. Conversely, Tennessee's Montario Hardesty has been one of the biggest surprises this season. It could be a good matchup to watch this week.

Postgame Reaction: K-State vs. UCLA

TB — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 23:43:21 -0000

More photos » by Francis Specker - AP

Daniel Thomas celebrates K-State's only touchdown in a 23-9 loss to UCLA.(AP Photo/Francis Specker)

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About the only good thing I can say today is that I didn't wake up with a hangover.

Our worst fears for this season have been realized, K-State fans. All the hope we had in the offseason, and all the discussion of what could happen if everything went right, has gone out the door. Everything has not gone right. Before the season, Curtis Kitchen put together a list of five things that needed to go right for K-State to reach a bowl game. Instead of listing things I liked and things I didn't, I'm going to take a glimpse at those five things an look at what has transpired in the early going.

1. Stay healthy: Negatory. Our best defensive player, Brandon Harold, hasn't played a down yet. It shows, because our defense has only one sack on the season. Frankly, the secondary has played valiantly with zero pass rush in front of them. In addition, it appears that Alex Hrebec is now injured, too, as he did not play last night against UCLA. In a season where we have zero bye weeks, we have no chance to get healthy.

2. Daniel Thomas: He's been a stud. Unfortunately, he's not getting the ball enough. Last night, he had only 20 touches (15 carries, four receptions, one pass). That needs to be more like 25-30. He is the only consistent threat we have on offense, and we need to ride that horse to the bitter end. Maybe he's a marginal passer, but Carson Coffman doesn't appear to be much better.

3. Vic does his thing: The defense is better than last year. No doubt about that. Last season, we probably would have surrendered 450-500 yards to UCLA, especially after some breakdowns early gave the Bruins big gains. But adjustments were made, the team stood up, and UCLA only picked up 359 total yards on the night (and a big chunk came late on that play-action pass for the final score). We're still not back to the Lynch Mob days, but we're significantly better than the last two seasons.

4. Instant impact: We were talking about Emmanuel Lamur here. Mostly, he's been a disappointment in the secondary. His tackling fundamentals are average, and he got burned on the play-action that scored UCLA's final touchdown last night.

5. Get some help: This part focused on the schedule, and it doesn't appear we're going to get the help we'd hoped for. Missouri is much better than expected, while KU has looked solid in wins over cupcakes. Nebraska was one boneheaded play from winning in Blacksburg yesterday. Texas A&M is probably better than last season, and Texas Tech hasn't fallen off much. Even with the loss of Sam Bradford, nobody can score enough points to take advantage of OU. Even Iowa State appears to be a more game opponent than last season, and Colorado picked up its first win of the season yesterday.

Hit the jump for what it means, where we're going, a look at how our opponents are doing, and the Big 12 roundup.

What it means and where we're going...

In the big picture, it means we now know there is absolutely no chance that we're going to a bowl game this year. Assuming we win against Tennessee Tech this week, we would need five conference wins to get to the seven wins required for bowl eligibility. It's safe to say that I don't see that happening. I fully expect this team to improve with time, but it's going to be improving as the competition gets ever tougher.

On the horizon is an interesting two-week stretch for this team. Next week they return home to face a pretty bad Tennessee Tech team, a team they should beat easily. Unfortunately, I'm guessing that morale in the locker room is pretty low, and despite the athletic department's best efforts, I'm also guessing that attendance next week is going to be pretty poor. It wouldn't be surprising to me if the team is flat and just sort of picks up a routine, unimpressive win. The next week opens conference play in Kansas City, Mo., against one of the few conference teams we have any legitimate chance to play with. With no disrespect intended toward Iowa State, if we can't win that one, we won't win another one the rest of the season, unless Colorado or Texas A&M completely tanks.

What our opponents are doing...

Massachusetts picked up an easy conference win, defeating Rhode Island, 30-10. The Rams were only 3-9 a year ago and are 1-1 on this young season. Meanwhile, Louisiana traveled to Death Valley to take on No. 9 LSU, and was tagged with a 31-3 loss. I suppose we could take some positives from the fact that ULL limited LSU to only 330 yards total offense, but that's sort of a slim silver lining.

Next week's opponent, Tennessee Tech, is 1-1 on the season. In the opener, TTU picked up a 51-10 victory over NAIA Pikeville College. This weekend, the Golden Eagles dropped a 17-7 decision to Eastern Kentucky. In the Ohio Valley Conference, EKU is a pretty solid team, having won the conference twice in a row, and TTU played them tough last week. Still, this is not a team that should be able to come to Manhattan and play with K-State, although with our struggles on offense I hesitate to say that about anyone.

Around the Big 12

KU 44, Duke 16

After hearing that Duke had driven 87 yards in two plays for an early 7-0 lead, I wondered what had happened to KU's defense after last week's impressive outing against UTEP. Turns out, they were apparently just a little slow to wake up for the 11 a.m. kickoff. Despite giving up a lot of yards (394), KU would only yield nine more points. It would be a mistake to call KU's offense balanced, as the beaks picked up 338 of their 490 yards through the air, but after two ground-bound games to start the season, the question had been whether KU's aerial attack would get untracked. Question no more, as Todd Reesing was an efficient 28-41 with three TDs and no INTs. Dez Briscoe may not be a classroom star, but he's a stud on the field, hauling in six receptions for 117 yards and a TD.

For more: Rock Chalk Talk

Next opponent: Southern Mississippi (Lawrence, Kan.), 9/26

Missouri 52, Furman 16

As I was unwilling to fork over $30 to watch this massacre, I didn't see even a single highlight from Mizzou's beatdown of the FCS Furman Paladins. The stats show that the Blaine Gabbert everyone fell in love with after week one returned, going 17-25 with three TDs and no INTs. Mizzou led 42-0 at half as this one was never in doubt. Shockingly, Furman won the time-of-possession battle, and picked up 398 yards. I'll have to defer to the RMN crew as to whether this was a result of defensive breakdowns early or junk yards late.

For more: Rock M Nation

Next opponent: Nevada (Reno, Nev.), 9/25

Colorado 24, Wyoming 0

From the box score, it appears this game was nearly unwatchable. Colorado controlled time of possession and easily outyarded the Cowboys, but only picked up 326 yards on the night. Give some credit to the CU defense for shutting out a Wyoming team that had Texas down early last week, but then remember that this is Wyoming, a team with a first-year head coach that is probably going to end up in the MWC basement. For K-State fans, seeing CU win this one has to be a bit disappointing, because the Buffs were looking like about our only good chance at a conference win.

For more: Ralphie Report

Next opponent: West Virginia (Morgantown, W.Va.), 10/1

Oklahoma 45, Tulsa 0

Are Big 12 defenses getting better this year? Tulsa may not be the team it was last year, but they play in the offense-happy Conference USA and failed to score a point against the Sooners. This one was over early, as OU jumped to a 31-0 halftime lead before coasting to an easy win. Landry Jones had a big day, passing for 336 yards and six touchdowns against the Golden Hurricane, but threw two interceptions in the process. While lacking a dominant back -- no Sooner gained more than 73 yards rushing -- Oklahoma picked up nearly 200 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Sooner defense limited Tulsa to only 269 yards on the day.

For more: Crimson and Cream Machine

Next opponent: Miami (Coral Gables, Fla.), 10/3

Virginia Tech 16, Nebraska 15

As Virginia Tech is apt to do, the Hokies slugged it out in a game with Nebraska that did nothing to advance offensively competent football. It looked for all the world as though Nebraska had this game won, stopping VT on downs with less than two minutes left. However, VT had all its timeouts left and Nebraska failed to pick up a first down, forcing the Huskers to punt back to the Hokies. Inexplicably, NU safety Matt O'Hanlon let Danny Coale get behind him and Tyrod Taylor shockingly completed a pass to him down the left sideline for an 80-yard gain to the Nebraska three. Two plays later, Taylor found Dyrell Roberts for the winning touchdown, undoubtedly causing a short-term spike in the Nebraska suicide rate. After two good outings against Sun Belt teams, quarterback Zac Lee was awful against Va. Tech, going 11-30 with no TDs and two INTs. Nebraska's lone bright spot offensively was running back Roy Helu, Jr., who diced the Hokies for 170 rushing yards, a career high. I don't have the stats, but NU DT Ndamukong Suh was practically unblockable, as usual, shutting down the running game and batting down numerous passes.

For more: Corn Nation

Next opponent: Louisiana (Lincoln, Neb.), 9/26

Connecticut 30, Baylor 22

Those hyping the Bears as a bowl team this season took one on the chin as Baylor lost at home to UConn Saturday. For the second time in as many games, quarterback Robert Griffin III had a subpar outing, passing for only 119 yards and rushing for a measly 20. Unlike two weeks ago against Wake Forest, the rest of the team couldn't pick up the slack, as the Bears gained only 266 yards on the day. Meanwhile, Joe Pawelek and the Baylor defense were not up to the task against UConn, giving up 326 yards, including a whopping 235 rushing yards, as UConn running back Andre Dixon scored three touchdowns.

Next opponent: Northwestern State (Waco, Texas), 9/26

Oklahoma State 41, Rice 24

For a second straight week, the Oklahoma State defense looked deficient, giving up 377 yards and 24 points to anemic Rice. It was bad enough that Rice actually outyarded the supposedly high-flying Pokes, as Okie State only gained 351 total yards. The Cowboys led 21-3 at halftime, but couldn't put Rice away in the second half. T. Boone Pickens needs to put out an APB for the OSU running game, as the Pokes only gained 124 yards rushing with Kendall Hunter on the shelf again. Dez Bryant was back to his usual tricks, catching nine passes for 161 yards and two TDs.

Next opponent: Grambling State (Stillwater, Okla.), 9/26

Texas A&M 38, Utah State 30

After steamrolling New Mexico two weeks ago and taking a week off, A&M came out flat and beat Utah State in unconvincing fashion. While the A&M offense was again impressive, tallying 573 yards, the defense was woeful, yielding 521 yards to the other Aggies. Penalties continue to bug A&M, as the Aggies totaled 16 flags for 147 yards yesterday. Quarterback Jerrod Johnson was mostly impressive, going 21-41 for 322 yards and four TDs, and the A&M rushing game picked up 235 yards. Still, the defensive effort had to bring back some painful memories of last year, against a Utah State team that, frankly, is not very good. In its first game, USU lost to in-state rival Utah, the very same Utah team that Oregon dropped yesterday. Apparently, A&M has a knack for finding opponents with a first-year coach, as Gary Anderson is in his first year with the Aggies, a team that went 3-9 last season.

For more: I Am the 12th Man

Next opponent: UAB (College Station, Texas), 9/26

Iowa State 34, Kent State 14

Much rejoicing will be heard in the streets of Ames, Iowa, this week, as the Cyclones no longer hold the nation's longest road losing streak. Quarterback Austen Arnaud bounced back from a putrid game against Iowa last week to pass for 144 yards on 13-21 passing with one touchdown, while the Cyclones rolled up 234 rushing yards. Alexander Robinson accounted for 143 of those yards for ISU. The Clones' defense also limited Kent State to 302 total yards.

For more: Clone Chronicles

Next opponent: Army (Ames, Iowa), 9/26

Texas 34, Texas Tech 24

Texas Tech ended up on the short end of this decision despite outyarding and out-first-downing the Longhorns. Colt McCoy turned in a pedestrian effort against the Red Raiders, passing for only 205 yards and throwing two interceptions. It's looking more and more each week like RMN's Bill C. was right before the season when he predicted that McCoy's outstanding success last season was likely unsustainable. That's not to say Texas isn't a good team, but I don't think anyone really knows how good the Horns are right now. Also of note, the Texas Tech Running Game Watch is now in full gear, as the Red Raiders actually got further from the 100-yard barrier for the season by posting a -6 in the rushing game total. If you're keeping track, Tech is now at 86 net rushing yards through three games. That's Jocques Crawford-level stats right there, which may be college football's Mendoza Line. Taylor Potts looked pretty good, going 46-62 for 420 yards, two TDs and one INT, but he can't do it all on his own. Captain Leach had better find a running game soon.

For more: Burnt Orange Nation, Double T Nation

Next opponents: Texas (UTEP, Austin, Texas, 9/26), Texas Tech (Houston, Houston, Texas, 9/26)