SB Nation - James Barnard

Five Things to Watch Against Baylor

GhostofBigRoy — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:40:23 -0000

by Harry Cabluck - AP

How does Cody Johnson respond to his start? Last week was supposed to be Johnson's first collegiate start, but Fozzy Whittaker ended up coming out with the ones. Ultimately, it doesn't really matter which player steps out on the field first -- the more important aspect is how many carries a back receives. Mack Brown was talking about Johnson receiving 15-20 carries this weekend again to in an attempt to gain an understanding of how much he can improve or wear down the defense as the game goes on.

As mentioned earlier in the week, the problem is that Johnson doesn't really fit what Texas does offensively that well. When he's in the game, teams aren't going to be worried about him splitting out wide as a receiver or gashing them with flare passes into the flat. Teams now also load the box a bit more or at least anticipate run when the big back comes into the game. Johnson also isn't a great fit in the horizontal running scheme Texas employs, being better served getting his shoulders squared to the line of scrimmage and heading downhill, much as he does in the short-yardage situations in which he excels.

This weekend, then, will be a test run for how well Johnson does with the current scheme and an effort to determine which plays are successful with him. Much like the Colorado game, Mack Brown may be stubborn about trying to run the football, so it will be interesting to see if Texas only runs their basic plays, or if they try to incorporate some misdirection as well, which has been pretty absent the last several weeks.

Can Texas exploit the right side of the Baylor line? As kriess does an excellent job of pointing out in his Baylor offensive preview, the right side of the Baylor line -- right guard James Barnard and right tackle Phillip Blake -- are two of the weaker members of the Bear unit, with Barnard struggling in pass protection and Blake coming in undersized at 275 pounds. Barnard in particular could be in for a long day matched up against Lamarr Houston shooting gaps and generally causing mayhem. After his incredible performance against UCF indicating that he is now completely comfortable -- as he has been for a while now -- and able to dominate the interior of the line, look for Houston to have another strong game.

Blake could be in for a long day as well. While he does have good enough feet to keep Sergio Kindle, Sam Acho, et al. from beating him on the edge, watch out for the Longhorn defensive ends using their speed-to-power move, Kindle's best, or simply bull rushing Blake back towards the quarterback. Baylor will probably try to run behind the larger left side of the line, but if they try to run right, the Longhorns will almost surely stuff those plays.

Can the secondary shut down David Gettis and Kendall Wright? The enduring image of the Baylor game last season was Kendall Wright running right past Ben Wells -- that was not an easy thing to recover from for Wells, as that was pretty much his first impression he made on the Texas fanbase. Uh yeah, no do-overs on first impressions, Ben.

In fact, Gettis and Wright may be the most talented pair of receivers Texas has faced this season and the only two players who provide a significant offensive threat to the Longhorns. After a mostly disappointing career, Gettis has come on late in his senior season, racking up more than 100 yards in each of the last two games, including seven catches for 124 yards against Nebraska. Gettis has also scored his first touchdown since his freshman season.

As for Wright, he may have been one of the most underrated players in the 2008 recruiting class, though perhaps the fact that he played quarterback in high school had something to do with that. Wright isn't a big receiver at about 6-0 and 180 pounds, but he has excellent speed and is dangerous in the open field. Last week against Missouri he had 10 catches for 149 yards and two touchdowns.

The Baylor offense is designed around getting their playmakers the ball in the space, so the Longhorns secondary will not only have to cover well, but also tackle well and fight through blockers on the screen plays Art Briles likes to dial up. Missouri missed 18 tackles last week, resulting in an extra 200 yards or so for the Baylor offense, putting solid tackling at a premium for Texas.

Can Colt McCoy post big numbers to help his Heisman campaign? Since most of the drama is gone from the season after the victory over Oklahoma State, the Longhorns simply have to take care of business until the Big 12 championship game, while putting up some style points along the way to keep the human voters happy, as there is little Texas can do to make the computers happy except win. The big storyline, then, is whether or not McCoy can make a late run at the Heisman trophy.

Last week was a good start to re-invigorate his campaign after the poor performance against Oklahoma in front of a national audience knocked him down in the standings. Even for a successful quarterback like McCoy, 470 yards is enough to get the attention of the most skeptical of voters. To have a chance, McCoy needs to keep putting up video game numbers, while keeping his interceptions in check. A highlight reel running play or two might help as well, anything to get on SportsCenter at this point.

The other aspect that will help his candidacy is his run on the all-time wins record for quarterbacks. With a win over Baylor, McCoy will tie David Greene for most all-time wins and a win over Kansas will break the record with several games left to create even more space. It's the type of story that national media outlets will eventually pick up and will help McCoy gain notice.

Can Longhorns fans making the trip to Waco make more noise than the Baylor fans? Yes, I'm now stretching here. Really, this could have been one thing to watch against Baylor -- the Longhorns putting their usual beatdown on the Bears. But hey, I'm trying not to pack this in like John Werner did in his preview for us.

So, back to the point -- Texas fans traditionally travel well to Waco, generally making up a sizable contingent. With Robert Griffin done for the season and whatever hopes Baylor fans harbored coming into the season completely squashed, there could be a ton of Baylor fans dressed as empty seats in this game. Mack Brown specifically asked fans to take over Floyd Casey stadium, since there are few things more beautiful than hearing a heart Texas Fight in an opposing team's home stadium.

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:15:23 -0000

As we enter the second game of what Gary Pinkel is calling Mizzou's second season, let's take a look at where Art Briles' Baylor Bears present a threat, and where they've been hurt worst by the loss of Robert Griffin to a season-ending knee injury.

It was supposed to be different this year. Thanks to Hot Tub Griffin III, Baylor was going to threaten for a bowl game. They were actually exciting to watch for once, and Hot Tub was Rock M Nation's unanimous favorite non-Mizzou player.

Okay, you twisted my arm...one last time this season...

One last moment of silence, please. The knee injury that robbed Baylor (and us) of nine games of Hot Tub greatness* has left Baylor lifeless on offense, and despite an increase in overall team speed on offense and a relatively salty defense, the Bears sit at 3-5, 0-4 in the Big 12. Their best chance at a Big 12 win--a trip to Iowa State--ended with an easy, 14-point loss. We have all died a little inside without Hot Tub in our lives...and Baylor has died on the outside.

* Just for effect, I should once again point out that Griffin PLAYED THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN STATE GAME (well, all of the game that the first-string played) with a torn ACL suffered on the first possession, attempted three rushes, and went 16-for-19 passing with 226 yards and three touchdowns. With a torn ACL. God I love that guy.

Alright, now that we're past that, it's time to look at the team Baylor does have, and the amount of threat that they represent for Mizzou at 1pm on Faurot Field.

Offense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

We're going to start with Baylor's overall "+" ranking, presented as we've presented data for every opponent, but this comes with a rather obvious disclaimer: Baylor's last five games without Griffin have shown a different type of team than the one that made up a chunk of these ratings. We'll take a look at Baylor, pre- and post-Griffin injury, after the initial spew of data.

Baylor Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	BU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.7 (40)	111.7 (35)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	104.7 (53)	104.8 (45)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	129.7 (29)	122.4 (33)

Rushing S&P+	133.2 (5)	102.7 (63)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (73)	118.3 (30)

Standard Downs S&P+	114.6 (33)	112.5 (35)
Passing Downs S&P+	123.6 (35)	115.0 (36)

Red Zone S&P+	128.6 (22)	104.4 (61)

Q1 S&P+	136.2 (15)	95.5 (77)
Q2 S&P+	106.0 (63)	135.8 (12)
Q3 S&P+	124.5 (26)	112.2 (41)
Q4 S&P+	105.4 (55)	115.8 (34)

1st Down S&P+	122.2 (20)	108.0 (49)
2nd Down S&P+	127.0 (22)	112.3 (41)
3rd Down S&P+	101.1 (74)	113.8 (38)

Line Yards+	105.9 (52)	101.6 (61)
Close Sack Rate+	95.7 (73)	93.3 (72)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	106.7 (57) / 108.3 (56)	101.9 (57) / 123.0 (37)

Analysis after the jump.

Now, let's look at the Baylor offense with and without Hot Tub III.

Baylor Offense: With & Without Griffin
Category	With Griffin	W/out Griffin
Close S&P+	120.3	89.1
Close SR+	111.1	92.2
Close PPP+	129.5	84.1

Rushing S&P+	169.5	74.0
Passing S&P+	89.0	94.3

Standard Downs S&P+	132.3	82.0
Passing Downs S&P+	79.8	113.4

Red Zone S&P+	150.7	102.8

Q1 S&P+	169.9	98.6
Q2 S&P+	77.1	96.4
Q3 S&P+	183.6	80.7
Q4 S&P+	87.6	96.7

First, it is worth noting that BU's actually a better passing team with Florence than with Griffin. That's not the biggest shocker in the world, but it does show that Florence is at least solid. And he's got a pretty deep WR corps (deep in that the #2 guy is about equal to the #6 guy) to work with, plus a nice, offensive-minded head coach. Also, for whatever reason, they're better in both Q2 and Q4 with Florence than they were with Griffin. You figure that one out, as I have no idea; of course, they are infinitely worse in Q1 and Q3, so usually the game is lost by the time Q4 (or even Q2) comes about, it appears. Mizzou might do Baylor some favors, as they are usually not particularly great in Q1, but it appears that Q3 is death for the Bears (strange, considering BU outscored Nebraska 10-0 in Q3 last week).

When Baylor Has the Ball...
Baylor Rushing	Advantage: Missouri
Baylor Passing	Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Baylor:	Q1
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2-Q4

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. Where applicable, I'll look at post-Griffin numbers.

Close Success Rate+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+ (though Passing Downs is close)
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st Down, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for Baylor...

Q1 S&P+
2nd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Without Griffin, Baylor has found the going a lot rougher in terms of utilizing their other weapons--WR Kendall Wright, RB Jay Finley, etc. They still have at least a decent offensive line, but that line will need to execute against Missouri's rapidly improving defensive line, and they will need to generate some early points, as Missouri assumes more and more of an advantage as the game wears on. And if Baylor gets handed any easy opportunities through turnovers or special teams, they simply must convert those opportunities into touchdowns.

Quarterback

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Nick Florence: 84-for-147 passing (57.1%), 942 yards (6.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT

So...any great nicknames for Nick Florence yet? He needs you now more than ever. Really, Florence hasn't been too bad passing the ball. He hasn't been great, but considering two of his four Big 12 starts have come against Oklahoma and Nebraska, two of the three best defenses in the conference (this week, they play the fourth-best, followed by the overall best next week against Texas), his numbers haven't been too bad. He is indeed just a redshirt freshman, and he was thrown into a no-win situation; granted he indeed has no wins, but he could be a lot worse. Let's just say that he's absolutely no worse than Blizzle Szyzzle, Blake Szymanski. No offense intended, Mr. Blizzle.

Running Back

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

Jay Finley: 42 carries, 261 yards (6.2 per carry), 2 TD; 4 receptions, 24 yards (6.0 per catch)
Jarred Salubi: 42 carries, 249 yards (5.9 per carry), 2 TD; 17 receptions, 134 yards (7.9 per catch)
Terrance Ganaway: 34 carries, 134 yards (3.9 per carry), 3 TD; 1 reception, 13 yards

Between Jay Finley and Jarred Salubi, Baylor has managed a pretty decent first-string RB this year. Unfortunately, most of their success came early in the season. Finley had 121 yards on eight carries against UConn, while Salubi had 131 in seven carries against Northwestern State. Since Griffin's injury, Finley has managed 49 yards in just 20 carries (2.5 per carry) while recovering from a sprained ankle and pulled quad, while Salubi has only been slightly better at 118 yards in 35 carries (3.4 per carry). Injuries haven't helped here, but the injury that hurt most of all was obviously Griffin's. Without the dual threat QB, teams are able to focus a lot more on the RBs.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Joining [Kendall] Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

WR Kendall Wright: 40 catches, 448 yards (11.2 per catch), 2 TD; 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3 per carry), 1 TD
WR David Gettis: 31 catches, 426 yards (13.7 per catch), 3 TD
WR Ernest Smith: 26 catches, 280 yards (10.8 per catch); 1 carry, 5 yards
WR Lanear Sampson: 15 catches, 130 yards (8.7 per catch), 1 TD

TE Justin Akers: 14 catches, 124 yards (8.9 per catch), 1 TD
TE Brad Taylor: 8 catches, 90 yards (11.2 per catch)

In Baylor's first game post-Griffin, Kendall Wright had 125 yards in nine catches against Kent State, suggesting there was life even with a dry hot tub. However, in the past four games he has managed only 16 catches for 134 yards and has scored zero touchdowns (of course, Baylor as a whole has scored only four, so that's not saying a lot). Justin Akers (against OSU) and David Gettis (against Nebraska) have stepped up recently, but until more than one weapon shows up for a given game, Baylor's whole aerial attack is grounded. Wow, I did not intend that weak pun there. C'est la vie.

Offensive Line

Now [Jason] Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

Looking at Baylor's Line Yardage and Sack Rates, you get the distinct impression that this isn't a particularly good or bad line. In fact, with rankings around 60th in all categories, you could say the line is actually perfectly average. Unfortunately for Baylor, Mizzou's defensive line has been improving significantly in conference play and is quite likely well above average right now, especially with Aldon Smith surging and a much less mobile quarterback looking for open receivers. This matchup has gone from a draw to a distinct Mizzou advantage in recent weeks.

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Defense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Baylor Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	BU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	100.0 (60)	106.2 (57)
Close Success Rate+	94.2 (84)	103.6 (58)
Close PPP+	109.0 (44)	112.8 (56)

Rushing S&P+	86.3 (98)	102.1 (67)
Passing S&P+	118.4 (29)	110.8 (51)

Standard Downs S&P+	99.5 (63)	105.0 (60)
Passing Downs S&P+	109.1 (47)	109.7 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	122.7 (32)	70.7 (114)

Q1 S&P+	89.0 (86)	117.9 (50)
Q2 S&P+	102.5 (63)	100.2 (73)
Q3 S&P+	109.8 (45)	111.9 (52)
Q4 S&P+	101.1 (61)	102.4 (65)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (58)	102.6 (66)
2nd Down S&P+	95.2 (75)	106.6 (64)
3rd Down S&P+	109.1 (50)	118.9 (38)

Line Yards+	87.1 (101)	101.3 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	89.9 (78)	173.9 (16)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	79.1 (93) / 115.6 (45)	243.4 (8) / 124.7 (41)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage(ish): Baylor
Best Time for Baylor:	Q2-Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q1, Q4

With Gabbert looking much, much healthier against Colorado, we can at least tentatively put an end to the "injured Gabbert" period. So, since we did the "pre-and-post" treatment for Baylor, should we do the same for Mizzou? We know that Mizzou's offensive stats plummeted with Gabbert's ankle sprain, but we also know that the defenses Mizzou faced at that time were much better. Luckily, we have "+" numbers to account for the difference in competition level! So here are the numbers for when Blaine Gabbert had one and two healthy ankles (the "one healthy ankle" stats are for the last three quarters of the Nebraska game and all of the Texas and OSU games):

Missouri Offense: Healthy vs Injured Gabbert
Category	Healthy #11	Injured #11
Close S&P+	107.1	94.3
Close SR+	101.2	95.3
Close PPP+	114.1	93.1

Rushing S&P+	85.4	117.1
Passing S&P+	119.3	81.6

Standard Downs S&P+	103.4	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	90.9	98.2

Red Zone S&P+	70.6	108.4

Q1 S&P+	93.7	116.3
Q2 S&P+	91.3	107.2
Q3 S&P+	108.2	31.5
Q4 S&P+	101.7	81.4

Mizzou was significantly better at both rushing and red zone offense when Gabbert was hurt, but I think there is a bit of noise in the statistics there. Mizzou got a lot of credit for the touchdown they scored on their lone red zone trip against Texas, and that balanced out their craptastic execution against OSU. Either way, that's a damn small sample size. Meanwhile, the rushing success didn't seem to have anything to do with Gabbert limping around--it was seemingly more a result of Missouri's offensive line simply blocking better (and, potentially, their running backs running better).

Either way, we're definitely working with a small sample size here, but there are some conclusions that can be reached: 1) while Missouri's second-half execution against Colorado left something (okay, a lot) to be desired, they are still a much, much better second-half team with a healthy Gabbert. It's almost as if Missouri was able to disguise Gabbert's injury with good game-planning, but by the second half, they were out of tricks. Now, with Gabbert throwing more accurate passes and pulling down a couple of keepers, Missouri has a lot more options. Also, and this is some incredible statistical analysis here, 2) Missouri is a much better passing team when their quarterback can actually hit his targets.

With that in mind, let's look at Missouri's "healthy Gabbert" advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+
Sack Rates+

Baylor's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2 S&P+

With a healthy Gabbert, the passing game seems to be a draw, as do Q3 and Q4 S&P+ and 1st Down S&P+.

Defensive Line

Beyond [Penn State transfer Phil] Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

DE/DT Jason Lamb: 21.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 2 Blocked Kicks
DT Trey Bryant: 15.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 3 QBH
DE Zac Scotton: 12.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Phil Taylor: 11.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 QBH, 2 Blocked Kicks
DE Tracy Robertson: 10.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 3 QBH

So...has vaunted transfer Phil Taylor actually made a difference? Baylor's pass defense has actually been pretty solid, but their rushing defense has been horrible. If Mizzou's offensive line was able to open up holes for Derrick Washington and company and protect Blaine Gabbert from Colorado pass rushers, there's nothing saying they won't be able to do the same (and better) against Baylor. Maybe Taylor really is a difference-maker, but the rest of the line has been just terrible? Jason Lamb, who has been playing at Baylor since Grant Teaff was coach, has put up some decent numbers--as good as those of Mizzou's Jaron Baston and Dominique Hamilton--but he's pretty much it. If he's not making a nice play, then Baylor's relying on the LBs.

Linebackers

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Joe Pawelek: 52.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 2 PBU
Antonio Jones: 47.0 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
Antonio Johnson: 41.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU
Chris Francis: 21.0 tackles
Elliot Coffey: 20.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Earl Patin: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

I really was pretty impressed with Joe Pawelek last year, but while he's been rock solid this year, it doesn't seem like he's been quite the playmaker I was expecting. He's still good, though, and the Two Antonios have combined with Pawelek to form what is certainly a decent unit. As I put it in the offseason, Baylor has struggled in certain areas (i.e. run defense), but they're not the reason why. And they're fast enough to do decent things in pass coverage.

Secondary

Jordan Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

S Jordan Lake: 48.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF
S Jeremy Williams: 25.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
CB Clifton Odom: 22.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 4 PBU
S Byron Landor: 22.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBU
CB Tim Atchison: 21.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 PBU
CB Chance Casey: 18.5 tackles, 2 INT, 1 QBH, 4 PBU
S Mike Hicks: 12.5 tackles

If Pawelek hasn't been quite what I thought this year, Jordan Lake REALLY hasn't been what I thought. He was a pretty strong, disruptive player in 2008; this year, he's just a tackler. One forced fumble, one tackle for loss, and no interceptions? Huh. In all, though, Baylor's pass defense really has been pretty decent this year; I mean, ranking 47th isn't amazing by any means, but with a sieve for a run defense, the secondary has been the least of their problems. Can you tell I haven't at all been impressed with their defensive line?

Special Teams

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Punt Returns Rank: 22nd (Krys Buerck: 12 Returns, 7.5 Avg)
Net Punting Rank: 89th (Derek Epperson: 45.2 Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 39th (Terrance Williams: 13 Returns, 26.0 Avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 44th

Field Goals: 4-for-8 (Long: 41) (113th)
PATs: 17-for-18

If the special teams play involves a Baylor player with the ball in his hands, running upfield, then Baylor's special teams unit is pretty solid. If it involves somebody in a Baylor uniform kicking...not so much. Derek Epperson ranks in the nation's top 20 in overall punt average, but their net average has been hurt by two blocked punts, and they're giving up almost 17 yards per return (with one touchdown). Ouch. And Ben Parks has been far from great as place-kicker. But hey, Krys Buerck and Terrance Williams are bright spots. That's something.

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Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over. With Blaine Gabbert's arm, I love the idea of going deep quite a few times, but with the advantages Missouri will have in other regards, Missouri really just needs to avoid Passing Downs disaster, and they should be alright. It's rare one of my keys is "stay relatively conservative and don't do anything stupid," but that does appear to be the case here. I like to surprise myself sometimes.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. (SPREAD DOESN'T WORK NEED FULLBACK RAWR!!!!! ET CETERA. Just thought I'd get that out of the way so that doesn't come up and I don't have to point out that Missouri's red zone offense has been just fine in the spread the last few years.) Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

Prediction

Clearly this is Missouri's game to lose. It is Baylor at home, after all. However, even without Robert Griffin, this Baylor team has more weapons and team speed than previous Bears iterations, and if Missouri lets them hang around, loses the turnover battle, gets some bad bounces, allows a big play or two, etc., Baylor can absolutely win this game. As long as Missouri plays average or better, they should move to 6-3 and bowl eligibility. The numbers say Mizzou by 16.5, so we'll say Mizzou 30, Baylor 13. Run the ball well, rip off a big play or two, don't commit any awful turnovers, and let Mizzou's defensive weapons--Sean Weatherspoon, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, etc.--make the plays they can make.

September 5, 2009: Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Baylor Bears Football Preview

MRickman84 — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 16:00:39 -0000

The time has finally come. Jake and I finished up our first preview of the year, and it couldn't come at a better time. Finally, all of the preseason articles and predictions do not mean squat anymore--now the play on the field will dictate what means what. We're trying a format different from our basketball previews, so let us know if you like the layout. We are always looking for ways to evolve and change. So, without further ado, here is the preview for the Wake Forest-Baylor game this Saturday.

Breaking Down The Bears

Baylor is a funny team to analyze. They won just four games last year and had defensive troubles in the always dangerous Big 12. However, underneath the record are a number of extremely dangerous weapons. LB Joe Pawelek is a stud. FS Jordan Lake is extremely consistent. Robert Griffin has all of the tools to be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and can only build off of his freshman campaign. Plus, he has a running back who had 865 yards and 5.8 YPC in Jay Finley and a star receiver in sophomore Kendall Wright (50 rec, 649 yards; 168 yards rushing).

This Baylor team has a lot of pieces in place but the question remains whether or not Art Briles can put together the puzzle and bring the Bears to a bowl game. Standing in their way will be the Demon Deacons, who won 41-13 last year and are playing this game in front of an extremely football-hungry home crowd. Will Baylor be able to start their season off right and use a win for momentum? Will a loss hurt the team’s morale and push them into a funk? Or, will that loss provide motivation to come back the next week and move forward? A lot of questions might be answered for both teams on Saturday.

Stopping RG3

That’s right. Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin has come so far since the last time we saw the Bears that he went from backup QB to starter to earning himself a nickname. And as well he deserved it. All the praise for a freshman phenom quarterback went to Terrelle Pryor last year, but Griffin had an eye-popping season too. Just for comparison:

Pryor: 1311 yards, 60.6 completion percentage, 12 TDs, 4 INTs, 631 yds rushing, 4.5 yds per carry.

Griffin: 2091 yards, 59.9 completion percentage, 15 TDs, 3 INTs, 846 yds rushing, 4.9 yds per carry.

It’s close, but the edge goes to Griffin in my opinion. What does that mean for the Deacs? Simple, the young defense will be tested early. The linebacker corps, without stars Stanley Arnoux and a guy by the name of Aaron Curry, will be asked to step up and fly to Griffin when he gets past the defensive line. The DEs will need to contain and stay disciplined. And the offense needs to sustain long drives to keep RG3 off the field. If those things happen, Wake Forest will be able to hold Griffin in check.

Ghee Leads Young Corners

Replacing a player like Alphonso Smith is never easy, but having an All-ACC caliber player such as senior Brandon Ghee certainly softens the blow. While most Wake fans are confident in his abilities, the other cornerbacks are unproven. Sophomore Michael Williams had a great spring and summer and was promoted to the other starting cornerback spot. At 6’1", he certainly has great size for the position as well as good hands, which he exhibited at the spring game by making a spectacular one-handed interception. Josh Bush, the only other returning defensive back with significant game experience, will likely see time at both safety and cornerback. Finally, make sure to look out for redshirt freshman Kenny Okoro on Saturday. Coach Grobe had great things to say about him during his redshirt season, so it will be interesting to see what kind of impact he makes in his debut. While it would likely be beneficial to give the corners a game or two to become comfortable on the field, this inexperienced unit will be tested instantly by the playmaking ability of Robert Griffin.

Weapons At Wideout

Before each Demon Deacon season it is tough to tell who will be the go-to guy at wide receiver. Last season Demir Boldin stepped up tremendously from his previous years and led the ACC in total receptions. This season is no different, as four guys look to step up and fill the void. The most experienced is Marshall Williams, who had a couple memorable touchdown receptions last season against Ole Miss and N.C. State.

Jordan Williams struggled to get playing time last season after earning snaps as a true freshman, but has improved his work ethic in an effort to make a big impact this season. Devon (Y’lou) Brown and freshman Chris Givens are both small, speedy receivers that will likely get some looks in the orbit as well. It will be intriguing to see if one guy stands out and becomes the primary receiver or if Wake has more of a receiver by committee approach.

Double-duty For Popham?

After being thrown into the fire last season after Sam Swank’s lingering injury, Shane Popham will look to prove that he belongs. After winning a tough battle against ex-soccer player Cline Beam and freshman Jimmy Newman, he should receive ample opportunity to demonstrate that he is a capable ACC-level kicker. The depth chart also reveals that he won the punting job over freshman Alex Wulfeck. It is also important to note that Popham will likely get a break from doing kickoffs, as Beam will likely serve this role after showing off his strong leg in practice thus far.

On the other side, Baylor does not appear to be any better off in this area. Bears sophomore kicker Ben Parks missed five extra point attempts last season and was only six of nine on field goals, with a long of 42.

The Battle In The Trenches

When Wake Forest is on the defensive side of the ball, one battle they must win is the one upfront. On paper, this is likely the Deacs’ biggest advantage in the game as emotional team leaders Boo Robinson and John Russell command attention against a Baylor offensive line with big holes to fill.

The Bears lost second overall NFL draft pick Jason Smith at left tackle as well as three year starter Dan Gay at right tackle. Looking to replace these losses are JuCo transfer Danny Watkins, who did not start playing football until junior college, and freshman Cameron Kaufhold. Baylor does, however, have experience at the interior positions, with three year starter James Barnard and talented center J.D. Walton leading the way, Mohawks and all.

For Wake, it will be important for the guys upfront to get pressure and try to minimize big play opportunities for Robert Griffin, especially young defensive ends Kyle Wilber and Tristan Dorty. As is the case in most games, the battle in the trenches will ultimately determine the outcome of Saturday’s showdown.

Not Just A Kid From Jacksonville

Riley Skinner has a mission this season: to bring another ACC Championship to Winston-Salem. That claim might seem outlandish, but not for a quarterback who in his freshman season took home the title and has led the team to two straight bowl wins since. Last season, despite the offensive line hiccups, Skinner still threw for 2,347 yards with a 65.8 completion percentage. His leadership will be the key to this season’s success.

With the team going back to the I-Formation this year, it is critical for Skinner to manage games the same way he has in the past by limiting mistakes and taking shots when he has the opportunity. As a quarterback goes, a team goes, and with Riley at the helm, the Demon Deacons should feel pretty good about getting to a fourth straight bowl game. All that stands in the way to a good start is the Baylor Bears, and don’t think for a second that Skinner isn’t ready for the challenge.

A Return To Smashmouth

The offensive line’s troubles last season have been well-documented. I’m not going to go into it. If you want proof, just look into the endless number of articles that have been written this summer about how the offensive line needs to step up after last season. That’s true. It is absolutely imperative that the Deacs go back to their strong point from seasons prior. With three completely capable running backs—Brandon Pendergrass, Josh Adams and White Lightning Kevin Harris—as well as two stud FBs in Rinfrette and freshman Tommy Bohanon, this team seems poised to break out in the running game in a big way.

They go up against a Baylor team that was 91st in the nation on the defensive line and lost three starters. But they do gain Phil Taylor, a player who has been maligned with all kinds of trouble, including being kicked off the Penn State team. Regardless, the kid is enormous at 6’4", 355 lbs. And that’s not a typo. Fortunately, the Deacs return their entire offensive line and all of the injuries and guys playing out of position last season should definitely help the depth and confidence of the unit. Having potential pro Chris DeGeare back from suspension certainly will not hurt either. I fully expect the Deacs to have a lot of success running the football this season.

2009 Husker Football Opponent Preview: Baylor

Husker Mike — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:00:31 -0000

During the first twelve years of the Big XII, Baylor established themselves as the doormat of the conference in football. Some even suggested that Baylor be removed from the Big XII, feeling it was hopeless for the Bears to ever be able to compete. Certainly it's unclear whether Baylor would have ever been invited to join the Big XII if it wasn't for the efforts former Texas governor (and Baylor alumn) Ann Richards. But a funny thing happened in 2008. Baylor football showed signs of life.

Baylor hired former Houston coach Art Briles to take over for Guy Morriss, and convinced his prized recruit, quarterback Robert Griffin to sign with the Bears. The season started in typical Baylor fashion, losing 41-13 to Baylor. But two weeks later, the Bears caught the notice of the nation by walloping Washington State 45-17 as Robert Griffin ran for 217 yards. Baylor would go on to finish 4-8 and break out of the Big XII doghouse by defeating Iowa State and Texas A&M rather handily. From that squad, the Bears return 18 starters in 2009; a scary proposition for the rest of the conference.

Robert Griffin returns at quarterback after a stellar true freshman season, being named the Big XII offensive freshman of the year. A dual threat wizard, he rushed for 843 yards and 13 touchdowns, and threw for 2091 yards, 15 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. He set an NCAA freshman record by throwing 209 passes in a row without an interception, nearly breaking the Big XII mark of 213. That's downright scary. Then consider his speed: he's a legitimate track star who hopes to run in the 2012 London Olympics.

That's freaky scary. I guess for Nebraska's sake, it's probably better to have Baylor on the schedule for Griffin's freshman and sophomore seasons, as opposed to his junior and senior seasons.

But Baylor isn't a one-trick pony; running back Jay Finley did outrush Griffin last season, adding seven touchdowns to the mix. He'll ensure balance in the Bears offense for his junior season. Griffin's primary targets in the passing game will be sophomore Kendall Wright, with 649 yards and five touchdowns last season, and senior David Gettis, a former track star in his own right.

Up front, the Bears return two starters, senior right guard James Barnard and senior center J.D. Walton. They'll miss all-American left tackle Jason Smith, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams with the #2 pick this spring. Two junior college transfers will take over at tackle, junior right tackle Marquis Franklin and junior left tackle Danny Watkins. Watkins is a 24 year old Canadian who took up football a couple of years ago and became a junior college all-American.

If you were paying attention to the preseason all-Big XII teams, you might have been surprised that Baylor had more first team selections than Nebraska did. Here's the scary thing: they're all on defense. Up front, the Bears will be led by senior defensive end Jason Lamb and junior defensive tackle Phil Taylor. Taylor, who transferred from Penn State after getting into an on-campus fight, was named preseason newcomer of the year.

All three linebackers return, including all-Big XII senior middle linebacker Joe Pawelek, who had 128 tackles and six interceptions last season. Bookmarking Pawelek are the Antonios: senior Antonio Jones and junior Antonio Johnson.

In the secondary, two part time starters return at cornerback in juniors Antareis Bryan and Tim Atchison, but the star is senior all-Big XII safety Jordan Lake, who merely added 97 tackles and three interceptions last season. Senior Jeremy Williams will man the other safety spot.

Last year's Baylor squad got people's attention by scaring Connecticut, Nebraska, and Missouri last season. Just before Thanksgiving, the Bears beat A&M, thus ensuring that A&M can now be referred to as the "new Baylor" of the Big XII, since the Bears are no longer the conference doormat. This year, they get UConn and the Huskers at home. The schedule sets up a scary Halloween matchup for the Huskers with the Bears, who might finally be shaking the "Bad News Bears" reputation this season.

Poll

What happens when the Huskers visit Baylor on Halloween?

The Bears go down in flames, much like David Koresh's compound

47 votes

Just like last year, the Huskers find a way to win this game

177 votes

Baylor finally breaks through and wins a close one

65 votes

Baylor wins in a blowout, meaning that every Big XII team has embarrased Nebraska this decade.

37 votes

326 votes | Poll has closed

Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

We're to Day Two of everybody's favorite week of the preseason: Baylor Week. I close my eyes after typing that sentence and see confetti falling from the beautiful green and gold sky. Ahh, Baylor Week. Let's get to the stat-nerdy preview!

2008

Record: 4-8 (2-6 in conference)
S&P+: 212.4 (40th in the country, 8th in Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 336-352 (-16)
Conference Scoring Margin: 199-257 (-58)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): Texas A&M (#98), Iowa State (#104), Washington State (#118), Northwestern State (1-AA)
Losses: Oklahoma (#3), Texas (#5), Missouri (#10), Oklahoma State (#14), Texas Tech (#15), Nebraska (#21), Connecticut (#26), Wake Forest (#39)

First impressions from this rundown:

Baylor didn't beat a team ranked higher than 98th last year. Yes, they came close to beating Missouri and Texas Tech, but they didn't.
Baylor played SEVEN of the nation's top 26 teams according to S&P+, and eight of the top 40. Ouch.

Baylor was 0-3 in close games (i.e. final score within one possession), and that usually turns around from one year to another. Of course, all three came against highly-ranked teams (MU, Tech, UConn), meaning they might have overachieved just to keep it close....which doesn't foreshadow an automatic 1-2 game turnaround the next year.

In all, BU had a very respectable #40 overall ranking in S&P+. They beat everybody ranked below them (and by an average of 30.3 points) and lost to everybody ranked ahead of them (by an average of 17.1 points). After the first game of the season, a 28-point loss to Wake Forest, Baylor had a point differential of +12 in games started by Hot Tub Griffin III...for what that's worth.

The 2009 slate is maybe a smidge more forgiving, simply because UConn and Missouri probably won't be as good. Baylor starts with a trip to Wake Forest, then have three winnable non-con games against UConn, Northwestern State, and Kent. Their conference home games are against Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech--they'll probably have to win at least two of those games to end up bowl eligible, and based solely on my preseason projections, their two most likely wins out of that batch are against NU and Tech.

Coaching

Head Coach: Art Briles
Record at Baylor: 4-8 (conference: 2-6)
Overall Record (Houston 2003-07, Baylor 2008): 38-36
Career Pythagorean Record: 38.24 wins (+0.0/year)

Simply because he took the Baylor job, we know two things about him: he's fearless (and/or stupid), and he's got himself a healthy ego. You need those qualities to both accept the Baylor job and win in Waco, and though a 4-8 record is nothing to write home about, not every four-win season is the same. Just as Mizzou fans were thrilled with a 5-7 season in Brad Smith's freshman campaign, Baylor fans surely feel more optimistic right now than they have this millennium. Briles is a huge reason why, though the bigger, flashier reason is Mr. Robert Griffin.

Here's the deal, though: based on points scored, Baylor actually had a Pythagorean projection of 5.8 wins, 1.8 higher than what they actually managed. That's a big enough gap to suggest a poor coaching performance, but I'm not going to make that judgment after just one season. In five seasons at Houston, Briles' Cougars had a Pythagorean projection of 32.5 wins, or +0.7 per season. So overall his projected wins have almost exactly matched his actual wins, meaning his coaching probably doesn't hold his teams back too much.

Briles is and has always been an offensive coach. Flashy offense led him both to a) 172 wins at the high school level, and b) a spot on the Texas Tech coaching staff when Mike Leach came to Lubbock. He was running backs coach from 2000-02 before accepting the Houston job in 2003. His five teams in Houston averaged 30.6 points per game but allowed 29.4 (that number improved to 26.4 his final three seasons). With Griffin at the helm, it's pretty much a guarantee that Baylor will average healthy point totals over the next few years, but it's not yet a guarantee that they'll be able to keep enough points off the board to become a serious threat in the South.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 110.4 (#37)
Success Rate+: 100.9 (#58)
PPP+: 122.8 (#25)

Standard Downs S&P+: 102.1 (#59)
Passing Downs S&P+: 109.2 (#44)

Redzone S&P+: 111.7 (#37)

Q1 S&P+: 119.5 (#32)
Q2 S&P+: 116.0 (#26)
Q3 S&P+: 99.2 (#73)
Q4 S&P+: 85.8 (#108)

1st Down S&P+: 87.6 (#100)
2nd Down S&P+: 122.7 (#19)
3rd Down S&P+: 105.7 (#51)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 116.0 (#28)
Rushing SR+: 106.8 (#50)
Rushing PPP+: 130.5 (#24)

Standard Downs: 104.0 (#58)
Passing Downs: 133.8 (#19)

Redzone: 101.9 (#65)

Line Yards+: 103.8 (#57)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 105.1 (#47)
Passing SR+: 91.9 (#88)
Passing PPP+: 120.6 (#25)

Standard Downs: 103.8 (#51)
Passing Downs: 107.0 (#50)

Redzone: 139.3 (#10)

Sack Rate+*: 67.3 (#105)

* I've finally converted the sack rate figures to the "+" format used for everything else. This has also allowed me to change the way I rank offensive and defensive lines below, so some of the rankings have changed.

Some initial thoughts:

If you think about it, it makes sense that Baylor's PPP+ figures were much better than their Success Rate+ figures. They had a true freshman quarterback, and while they had their share of big plays, they didn't have enough of them to offset the lack of down-to-down success.
Their fourth-quarter struggles make sense when you remember that a) most of their wins were blowouts, meaning the first-stringers probably weren't in the game for a lot of fourth-quarters, b) most of their losses were blowouts, meaning the same thing, and c) they executed very poorly down the stretch in the close games in which they were involved--they averaged just 3.8 yards per play in the fourth quarters of their three close losses (UConn, MU, Tech). All of that adds up to pretty poor fourth-quarter numbers, no? It's still a little disconcerting that they were so much worse overall in the second half than the first.
I'm not sure I've seen bigger splits between 1st-, 2nd- and 3rd-downs. They were horrendous on first downs, very good on second, and okay on third.
As you would expect, they had solid success rushing the ball on Passing Downs--that's one of the more prevalent times where a QB will end up running with the ball, and we know that Griffin is one helluva runner.

Really, we'll know the Baylor offense is truly starting to come together when the efficiency improves. With Griffin at QB, the threat of the big play will always be there; but it's really hard to win, week in and week out, relying on the big play. You have to be able to stay out of trouble and move efficiently too.

Quarterback

2008 Unit Ranking: #28 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Hot Tub Griffin III (6'3, 200, So.)
Blake Szymanski (6'4, 205, Sr...Blizzle Szyzzle!)
Nick Florence (6'1, 180, RSFr.)

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Okay, now to the serious talk about Griffin. While he was limited in terms of personnel, and while he will eventually need to take more risks passing (which will almost certainly lead to more INTs), it really does take a while to figure out how Griffin (real first name: Robert...who knew?) could have improved on his freshman year, considering the team for whom he plays. A 59.9% completion rate, 2,091 passing yards, 15 TDs, 3 INTs, 142.0 QB Rating, 846 rushing yards, 4.9 yards per carry, 13 TDs. He was responsible for 28 touchdowns. Let's put that in perspective. Twenty-eight touchdowns is 196 points (with PATs). In Baylor's long losing streak (last winning record: 1995), they've scored fewer than 196 total points four times. Seriously. In all, Baylor's 336 total points were their most since 1994 (the last time they went to a bowl game), and considering Griffin was a true freshman last year, it's not hard to figure out why Baylor fans are excited.

So the question is, what will Griffin do for an encore? Can we just assume that his numbers will improve? Will the sophomore jinx kick in as more and more teams attempt to throw the Defending Brad Smith playbook at him, or is he so much better than Brad Smith (BLASPHEMY!!!) that it won't matter? And potentially most importantly, will he have more help this year? The longer he goes without serious offensive threats around him, the more likely he will become handcuffed eventually. Defensive coordinators are (usually) pretty smart guys, and they will figure out how to limit him if the supporting cast doesn't improve.

All I know for sure is, Griffin is likeable. Really likeable. Too likeable for a non-Mizzou player. He's so much fun to watch, and he's got so much potential that it's really hard not to root for him, at high volume, to succeed. Another good South team would do no favors for Missouri in terms of recruiting in the state of Texas, so it's best if Baylor stays a doormat, but that's not enough motivation for me to root against this guy.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #65 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jay Finley (5'11, 205, Jr.)
Jarred Salubi (5'10, 190, RSFr.)
Terrance Ganaway (6'0, 220, So.)

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

With Jones and Sanders either gone or at a different position, there is some new blood behind Finley. First, you've got redshirt freshman Jarred Salubi, a 2-star Waco product from the 2008 class, and Houston transfer Terrance Ganaway, who had a pretty decent freshman year with the Cougars, rushing for 550 yards and 6 TDs at 5.0 yards per carry. If either one of these guys can give Finley a little competition in the backfield, the Bears will be all the better.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

2008 Unit Ranking: #70 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Kendall Wright (5'11, 180, So.)
David Gettis (6'4, 210, Sr.)
Lanear Sampson (6'0, 190, RSFr.)
Ernest Smith (6'3, 195, Sr.)
Krys Buerck (5'11, 180, Jr.)
Mikail Baker (6'0, 205, Sr.)
Justin Fenty (5'9, 175, Sr.)
Terrance Williams (6'2, 190, RSFr.)
Kyle Mitchell (6'3, 220, Sr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Justin Akers (6'4, 250, Sr.)
Brad Taylor (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Matt Singletary (6'3, 245, So.)

Poor Kendall Wright. He had 50 catches for 649 yards and 5 TDs as a freshman last year, which in normal years would have pretty easily made him the best-performing freshman on the team. Instead he wasn't even the best-performing freshman at an offensive skill position. Wright certainly acquitted himself well in 2008--he had six catches for 114 yards and a touchdown against UConn, then put up a combined 14 catches for 212 yards and two TDs in back-to-back games against Iowa State and Oklahoma State. He finished rather slow--14 catches, 176 yards over his last four games--but he remains by far the most proven quantity in the Baylor receiving corps.

Joining Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #87 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C J.D. Walton (6'3, 305, Sr.)
G James Barnard (6'4, 295, Sr.)
G John Jones (6'4, 300, So.)
T Cameron Kaufhold (6'4, 285, RSFr.)
T Danny Watkins (6'4, 310, Jr.)
T Chris Griesenbeck (6'6, 275, Jr.)
G Jake Jackson (6'3, 285, RSFr.)
T Joe Korbel (6'6, 265, So.)
G Courtney Green (6'3, 265, So.)
C Hunter Hightower (6'5, 275, So.)

I've got to be honest: I have no idea how this unit included the 2009 NFL Draft's #2 overall pick. Unbeknownst to me, Jason Smith was a fortress at one tackle position. The other four guys dragged the unit to 87th in my OL Rankings. Ouch. Now Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

It appears that of the JUCO signees, Danny Watkins, a 4-star recruit from Butte (CA) C.C., has the best chance of stepping in and offering help immediately. Look for maybe one of the other JUCOs--either 6'7 Marquis Franklin or 6'4 Philip Blake--to jump into the rotation as well. Plus, you never want to rely on a true freshman to grasp everything he needs to grasp and contribute immediately, but 4-star stud Ivory Wade, from Dickinson, TX, will certainly have a chance to contribute immediately. This unit needed new blood, and it got it, but there's never any guarantee that the new blood will be any better than the purged blood.

Summary

Like Jonathan Moxon, Hot Tub Griffin III is only one man. Baylor has a couple guaranteed wins (NW'ern State, Kent State), and a couple of guaranteed losses (@OU, Texas), and the rest are relative tossups. If Baylor can go 4-4 in these games...

@ Wake Forest, UConn, @ Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, @ Missouri (yes, I'm broadly counting it as a tossup), @ Texas A&M, vs Texas Tech

...then they're bowling. And for them to do it, Griffin's going to need help from both old faces (Gettis, Finley, Walton, Barnard) and new ones (Salubi/Ganaway, Sampson, Watkins/Cameron Kaufhold). The explosiveness could be there--okay, the explosiveness WILL be there...this is Hot Tub III we're talking about here--but I worry that the efficiency still won't be up to snuff unless the new guys on the O-line can immediately make an impact. Otherwise Hot Tub III will still be running for his life quite a bit, and while he's as good as anybody on the run, you'd still prefer that he's not on the run a majority of the time.

2009 Pre-Season All Big 12 Team - Selecting Offensive Linemen

Jon Johnston — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 19:36:07 -0000

Offensive linemen are the most difficult players to measure on any team, potentially in any sport. They're the only players on a team for which there are no individual statistics. Some teams do track knockdowns, also known as "pancake" blocks - a block in which the opposing player is driven to the ground or flattened - but it's not an official statistic. It makes for great film review and a method of recognizing the player by coaches, but other than that, it's mostly meaningless.

The problem is that there is no separation between the individual lineman and his unit. If Oklahoma's DeMarco Murray or Nebraska's Roy Helu have a great season rushing the ball, they'll each get more credit for their performance than does their offensive line. You can measure a line unit by the number of sacks given up if you happen to play a pass-happy offense such as Texas Tech, but again, this is a unit statistic, not an individual.

How then does one go about picking offensive linemen for the 2009 All-Big 12 team?

I believe that a big part of measuring offensive linemen is in their durability - how many games they've played, and how many of them they've started. It's a brutal position - offensive lineman are huge guys who are constantly beaten and battered by the other huge guys across the line from them. They're going to get injured throughout the season and it takes a true warrior spirit to continue to play despite the injuries that come with the position.

The Big 12 group here at SB Nation has nominated a number of offensive linemen for consideration for the 2009 pre-season All Big 12 team. The list of nominations is below. What I've done is broken them down by their specific position, their previous honors and the number of starts and games played.

Player	School	Notes
JD Walton	Baylor	Center - 2009 Rimington Award Watch List - 2008 Big 12 HM - 24 Career Starts/Games Played
James Barnard	Baylor	Guard - 2008 Big 12 HM - 24 Career Starts/Games Played
Nate Solder	Colorado	Tackle - 10 Career Starts/14 Games Played
Ryan Miller	Colorado	Tackle - 4 Career Starts/10 Games Played
Jeremiah Hatch	Kansas	Tackle - 12 Career Starts/Games Played - Sophomore
Nick Stringer	Kansas State	Tackle - 2008 Big 12 HM - 24 Career Starts/31 Games Played
Kurtis Gregory	Missouri	Guard - 2008 Second Team Big 12 - 28 Consecutive Games Started/41 Games Played
Elvis Fisher	Missouri	Tackle - 2008 - 14 Games Started as True Freshman
Dan Hoch	Missouri	Tackle - 2009 will be first-time starter - 14 Games Played 2008 as true freshman
Tim Barnes	Missouri	Center - 2008 Big 12 HM - 2009 Rimington Award Watch List - 14 Games Started/20 Games Played
Jacob Hickman	Nebraska	Center - 2008 Big 12 HM - 2009 Rimington Award Watch List - 23 Games Started/30 Games Played
Mike Smith	Nebraska	Tackle - 13 Games Started/25 Games Played
Trent Williams	Oklahoma	Tackle - 2008 First Team Big 12 - 27 Games Started/35 Games Played
Brady Bond	Oklahoma State	Tackle - 31 Games Started/Games Played
Russell Okung	Oklahoma State	Tackle - 2008 First Team Big 12 - 34 Games Started/Games Played
Adam Ulatoski	Texas	Tackle - 2008 First Team Big 12 - 30 Games Started/36 Games Played
Chris Hall	Texas	Center - 2008 Second Team Big 12 - 2009 Rimington Award Watch List - 23 Games Started/31 Games Played
Charlie Tanner	Texas	Guard - 2008 Big 12 HM - 19 Games Started/31 Games Played
Kyle Hix	Texas	Tackle - 14 Games Started/26 Games Played
Brandon Carter	Texas Tech	Guard - 2008 Big 12 HM - 27 Games Started/38 Games Played
Marlon Winn	Texas Tech	Tackle - 2008 Big 12 HM - 21 Games Started/35 Games Played

I'm lead to believe that most lineman are selected by the media because of their reputation, but that reputation also developed because of durability. It's rare that a guy shows as on the first team without first having spent a season getting an honorable mention - the bottom line being that offensive linemen don't have years where they "blow up" like Michael Crabtree did as a true freshman receiver. Again, it goes back to durability, longevity, and the fact that there are no stats.

The following are returning linemen who were selected as first-team All Big 12 linemen in 2008:

- Trent Williams, Oklahoma

- Russell Okung, Oklahoma State

- Adam Ulatoski, Texas

The following are returning linemen who were selected as second-team All Big 12 linemen in 2008:

- Kurtis Gregory, Missouri

- Chris Hall, Texas

The 2009 All-Big 12 pre-season team will be announced soon - both the regular media's selections and our own selections amongst the Big 12 group here at SB Nation. We'll see how the picks end up.

If we're going by what's listed here - here are what we'll get for the All Big 12 First and Second Team Selections:

First Team

Center - Chris Hall, Texas

Guards - Kurtis Gregory, Missouri ---- Brandon Carter, Texas Tech

Tackles - Russel Okung, Oklahoma State ---- Adam Ulatoski, Texas

Second Team

Center - Jacob Hickman, Nebraska

Guards - James Barnard, Baylor ---- Charlie Tanner, Texas

Tackles - Trent Williams, Oklahoma (although he'll likely repeat at first team) ---- Brady Bond, Oklahoma State

2nd Annual SB Nation Big 12 All-Conference Team Ballot

RPT — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:30:08 -0000

Our Colorado cohorts at The Ralphie Report have once again solicited the powers that be in the Big 12 Blogosphere here at SB Nation to determine the SB Nation Preseason All-Big 12 Team. As Rock M Nation's representative in the voting process, here's how my ballot will appear. It must be noted that bloggers are NOT allowed to vote for players on teams they cover. As an aside, I must give a major shoutout to the SB Nation tech team, whose "Autotag" tool probably just imploded upon linking this post.

On to the ballot!

Quarterback (2)

Nominees: Jerrod Johnson (TAMU), Austen Arnaud (ISU), Taylor Potts (TTU), Sam Bradford (OU), Zac Robinson (OSU), Blaine Gabbert, Robert Griffin (BU), Colt McCoy, Todd Reesing (KU), Daniel Thomas (KSU)

The Vote: Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford

Notes: You can go around looking for ways to justify other picks, but it's going to be McCoy and Bradford at the top. I'm just glad we're selecting two quarterbacks so I don't have to decide between them and draw the ire of one of the fan bases. At the same time, you've got to feel for Reesing, Robinson and Griffin, dynamic players who'd be shoo-ins in a lot of other conferences.

Running Back (2)

Nominees: Roy Helu Jr. (NU), Cyrus Gray (TAMU), Christine Michael (TAMU), Chris Brown (OU), DeMarco Murray (OU), Kendall Hunter (OSU), Derrick Washington, Darrell Scott (CU), Rodney Stewart (CU), Jay Finley (BU), Jake Sharp (KU), Cody Johnson (UT), Vondrell McGee (UT), Foswhitt Whittaker (UT)

The Vote: Kendall Hunter, Chris Brown, DeMarco Murray

Notes: I went with the Oklahoma trio here. Kendall Hunter may well be the best back in the conference. Brown and Murray are a formidable 1-2 punch, assuming Murray is capable of staying healthy in 2009. Derrick Washington would have been my pick over one of these two had the blogger/player restrictions not been in place. I fought with including Roy Helu on the ballot. Helu came on hot at the end of 2008 (he averaged almost 10 yards a carry in a 157-yard day at Oklahoma) and could very well prove me wrong. Darrell Scott still has a lot to prove.

Fullback (1)

Nominees: Matt Clapp (OU), Jake Behrens (CU)

The Vote: Matt Clapp

Notes: I see no reason to unseat the reigning All-Big 12 fullback.

Wide Receiver (3)

Nominees: Ryan Tannehill (TAMU), Jeff Fuller (TAMU), Darius Darks (ISU), Detron Lewis (TTU), Edward Britton (TTU), Dez Bryant (OSU), Danario Alexander, Jared Perry, David Gettis (BU), Dezmon Briscoe (KU), Jordan Shipley (UT), Kerry Meier (KU), Brandon Banks (KSU), Jonathan Wilson (KU), Malcolm Williams (UT)

The Vote: Dez Bryant, Dezmon Briscoe, Jordan Shipley

Notes: Bryant has the unenviable task of trying to replace Michael Crabtree as the conference's best receiver, even though some call Bryant "a superior receiver" to Crabtree. Briscoe continues to be undervalued by the conference as a whole, and Shipley -- one of the conference's most consistent producers over the last few seasons -- has seen his stock rise in the national eye since last year's Red River Shootout. Honorable mentions go out to Kerry Meier, Brandon Banks and Detron Lewis, and player to watch mentions go out to Jeff Fuller and Malcolm Williams.

Rest of the ballot after the jump!

Tight End (2)

Nominees: Mike McNeill (NU), Jamie McCoy (TAMU), Jermaine Gresham (OU), Andrew Jones, Riar Geer (CU), Patrick Devenny (CU), Tim Biere (KU)

The Vote: Jermaine Gresham and Mike McNeill

Notes: Gresham is the no-brainer with the first vote. I know we're supposed to scoff at Nebraska right now, but I feel like McNeill is the only Husker that's being underhyped. A tight end like that is a tremendous asset in the process of breaking in a new quarterback.

Offensive Line (5)

Nominees: Jacob Hickman (NU), Mike Smith (NU), Brandon Carter (TTU), Marlon Winn (TTU), Trent Williams (OU), Brady Bond (OSU), Russell Okung (OSU), Kurtis Gregory, Elvis Fisher, Dan Hoch, Tim Barnes, Nate Solder (CU), Ryan Miller (CU), Adam Ulatoski (UT), Chris Hall (UT), Nick Stringer (KSU), JD Walton (Baylor), James Barnard (BU), Charlie Tanner (UT), Jeremiah Hatch (KU), Kyle Hixx (UT)

The Vote: Brandon Carter, Trent Williams, Russell Okung, Adam Ulatoski, Chris Hall

Notes: I'd be lying to you if I said I had hard and fast reasoning for selecting individual lineman. I do hope the other Big 12 bloggers give some love to Gregory and Barnes, who we've extolled here at RMN many times.

Interior D-Line (2)

Nominees: Ndamukong Suh (NU), Eddie Brown (Texas A&M), Colby Whitlock (Texas Tech), DeMarcus Granger (OU), Gerald McCoy (OU), Jaron Baston, Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU), Lamarr Houston (UT)

The Vote: Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy

Notes: Another relatively painless selection. Even a second team of any two of the trio of Granger, Fitzgerald and Houston would be extremely stout.

Defensive End (2)

Nominees: Pierre Allen (NU), Barry Turner (NU), Matt Featherston (TAMU), Jeremy Beal (OU), Auston English (OU), Brian Coulter, Jacquies Smith, Brandon Herald (KSU), Jake Laptad (KU), Sergio Kindle (UT)

The Vote: Sergio Kindle, Auston English

Notes: I know Jeremy Beal is getting most of the pundit love at DE for Oklahoma, but I remain a massive apologist for English when he's healthy. Maybe it's all just fallout from seeing English singlehandedly dominate Mizzou in person in Norman back in 2007. And, oh yeah, Sergio Kindle is a physical freak of nature.

Linebacker (4)

Nominees: Von Miller (TAMU), Brian Duncan (TTU), Marlon Williams (TTU), Keenan Clayton (OU), Travis Lewis (OU), Patrick Lavine (OSU), Sean Weatherspoon, Luke Lambert, Jeff Smart (CU), Shaun Mohler (CU), BJ Beatty (CU), Joe Pawelek (BU), Andre Sexton (OSU), Rod Muckelroy (UT)

The Vote: Joe Pawelek, Andre Sexton, Travis Lewis, Von Miller

Notes: Let's all take a moment to pour one out for Sean Weatherspoon, who is required to be left off my ballot. Pawelek enters what seems like his 37th year of eligibility at Baylor. Sexton and Lewis are relatively safe picks, while I take my one big departure from security and select A&M's Von Miller as my fourth 'backer. Miller is really more of a "project pick" here, as he's got the physical skills to be as good any other linebacker nominated if he's able to carve out his own role in Joe Kines' system. If it all comes together, Miller could turn into the type of player Kines had in Demeco Ryans at Alabama.

Cornerback (2)

Nominees: Leonard Johnson (ISU), Jamar Wall (TTU), Dominique Franks (OU), Perrish Cox (OSU), Carl Gettis, Jimmy Smith (CU), Cha'pelle Brown (CU), Josh Moore (KSU), Justin Thornton (KU), Daymond Patterson (KU), Chykie Brown (UT), Deon Beasley (UT)

The Vote: Dominique Franks, Josh Moore

Notes: A surprisingly solid list of nominees here. Franks was a second team All-Big 12 selection last year, and Moore quietly had a good year in the midst of a forgettable season for K-State. Brown would have been next on my radar, with Johnson, Wall, and Beasley close behind.

Safety (2)

Nominees: Larry Asante (NU), Trent Hunter (TAMU), Jordan Pugh (TAMU), Kenji Jackson, Jordan Lake (BU), Earl Thomas (UT), Blake Gideon (UT), Darrell Stuckey (KU), Phillip Strozier (KU)

The Vote: Jordan Lake, Darrell Stuckey

Notes: I'm probably drawing the wrath of the Burnt Orange Nation community by excluding two very talented young safeties in Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon, but Lake and Stuckey are certainly deserving of the nods here. Lake means to the Baylor defensive backfield what Pawelek means to Baylor's linebacking corps. Stuckey was ALL over the field at Arrowhead last year, and has to be the top safety in the Big 12 North (this despite my almost irrational love of Kenji Jackson).

Kicker (1)

Nominees: Alex Henery (NU), Hunter Lawrence (UT)

The Vote: Alex Henery

Notes: Hard to make the call here, but the cannon attached to Henery's hip gave Nebraska the win that COMPLETELY changed the outlook for the Huskers in 2009.

Punter (1)

Nominees: Mike Brandtner (ISU), Jake Harry, Derek Epperson (BU), Ryan Doerr (KSU), Alonzo Rojas (KU)

The Vote: Derek Epperson

Notes: Epperson is the returning leader in punt average, which is good enough for me. My apologies to Jake Harry.... THE FOURTH.

Kick Returner (1)

Nominees: Cyrus Gray (TAMU), Leonard Johnson (ISU), Perrish Cox (OSU), Dez Bryant (OSU), Jordan Shipley (UT)

The Vote: Perrish Cox

Notes: Cox and Bryant are somewhat interchangeable here, and since Bryant's already feeling the love, I decided to go with Cox. I would have had no qualms with Shipley in this slot either.

The Fog of '09 - South Offenses

Bill C. — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 15:00:07 -0000

Quarterbacks

Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)

Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here. If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap. If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.

Running Backs

Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)

I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine. Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)

I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario. He's gone. As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South. OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley. OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them. Broyles could be a major stud, though.

Offensive Lines

Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)

It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09. You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.

South Offenses, 2009

Oklahoma State (21)
Texas (20)
Oklahoma (15)
Texas Tech (12)
Texas A&M (9)
Baylor (7)

You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will. But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.

If Colt McCoy goes pro

Oklahoma State (22)
Texas (17)
Oklahoma (15)
Texas Tech (13)
Texas A&M (9)
Baylor (8)

If Sam Bradford goes pro

Oklahoma State (22)
Texas (21)
Texas Tech (13)
Oklahoma (10)
Texas A&M (10)
Baylor (8)

If McCoy AND Bradford go pro

Oklahoma State (23)
Texas (18)
Texas Tech (14)
Oklahoma (10)
Texas A&M (10)
Baylor (9)

This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.

One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.