SB Nation - Jason Smith

Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose :: Baylor Bears Edition

Seth C — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:00:15 -0000

by Sue Ogrocki - AP

29 days ago: Texas Tech running back Baron Batch, center, leaps into the end zone for a touchdown against Oklahoma during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game in Lubbock, Texas, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009. Texas Tech won the game 41-13. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

View full size photo »

This weekly feature considers five reasons why Texas Tech will win and five reasons Texas Tech will lose to each opponent. Check back tomorrow for "Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Win :: Baylor Bears Edition". ----- Ed. Note: I really had to hurry to get these up this morning. Apologies in advance for the quality.

Reason #1 :: Bowl Game: This is Baylor's finale for the year and it's only fitting that this is the #1 reason. It's a reason that the most of Texas Tech fans have expressed concern about since the TAMU loss and I still think there's a trust issue with this team. After sky-high wins, this version of the Red Raiders may be prone to letting press-clippings, girlfriends and other things let them know how great they are. There's plenty of talent on Baylor's squad and to discount Baylor because they are Baylor would be a huge mistake.

Reason #2 :: Short and Sweet: QB Nick Florence is a true freshman and he's not playing as bad as you would expect. Florence is a dink and dump sort of passer and he's not the type that likes to throw the ball deep. Florence is 7th in the conference in passing, again as a true freshman, and it will be interesting to see how Ruffin McNeill matches up with Florence in that there is no doubt that McNeill will play the bend-but-do-not-break methodology for this game.

Reason #3 :: Play Making Defense: Most of Baylor's opponents know about LB Joe Pawelek and S Jordan Lake. Both are seniors, Pawelek has 97 tackles (leads team), 2.5 sacks (2nd on team), and 4 TFL (3rd on team), while Lake has 83 tackles (2nd on team). You never underestimate the player that is playing his final collegiate game and is playing for pride. A little momentum could be dangerous thing for Texas Tech and both Pawelek and Lake are momentum makers.

Reason #4 :: Briles Knows Leach: This didn't help Bob Stoops last week, in part because I think Leach changed some things up this week, but there may not be a coach that knows Leach better than Art Briles and I think it showed last year. Of course, last year, QB Robert Griffin led the Baylor offense, which rushed for 229 yards total, while Griffin accounted for 99 yards and 2 TD's on the ground and Jay Finley ran for 105 yards on 10 carries. I know that Baylor lost LT Jason Smith, and it's been a huge loss for Baylor, but the Bears are capable and I think they are even more capable with Briles at the helm.

Reason #5 :: Shutting Down the Spread: I'm still somewhat shocked when I read the score and some of the status, but with Florence in charge, the Bears took down the Missouri Tigers, at Missouri. The subject line is a bit mis-leading in that Baylor really didn't shut down Mizzou, as QB Blaine Gabbert threw for 468 yards and 2 TD's, but the Baylor defense did register 4 sacks for the game and limited the Mizzou running game to 10 yards . . . for the day. The Tigers didn't seem to get their ground game going, and perhaps that's the key for the Red Raiders. Continue to run the ball, where Baylor is giving up 185 yards a game overall, but 230 in losses and only 108 in wins.

September 5, 2009: Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Baylor Bears Football Preview

MRickman84 — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 16:00:39 -0000

The time has finally come. Jake and I finished up our first preview of the year, and it couldn't come at a better time. Finally, all of the preseason articles and predictions do not mean squat anymore--now the play on the field will dictate what means what. We're trying a format different from our basketball previews, so let us know if you like the layout. We are always looking for ways to evolve and change. So, without further ado, here is the preview for the Wake Forest-Baylor game this Saturday.

Breaking Down The Bears

Baylor is a funny team to analyze. They won just four games last year and had defensive troubles in the always dangerous Big 12. However, underneath the record are a number of extremely dangerous weapons. LB Joe Pawelek is a stud. FS Jordan Lake is extremely consistent. Robert Griffin has all of the tools to be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and can only build off of his freshman campaign. Plus, he has a running back who had 865 yards and 5.8 YPC in Jay Finley and a star receiver in sophomore Kendall Wright (50 rec, 649 yards; 168 yards rushing).

This Baylor team has a lot of pieces in place but the question remains whether or not Art Briles can put together the puzzle and bring the Bears to a bowl game. Standing in their way will be the Demon Deacons, who won 41-13 last year and are playing this game in front of an extremely football-hungry home crowd. Will Baylor be able to start their season off right and use a win for momentum? Will a loss hurt the team’s morale and push them into a funk? Or, will that loss provide motivation to come back the next week and move forward? A lot of questions might be answered for both teams on Saturday.

Stopping RG3

That’s right. Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin has come so far since the last time we saw the Bears that he went from backup QB to starter to earning himself a nickname. And as well he deserved it. All the praise for a freshman phenom quarterback went to Terrelle Pryor last year, but Griffin had an eye-popping season too. Just for comparison:

Pryor: 1311 yards, 60.6 completion percentage, 12 TDs, 4 INTs, 631 yds rushing, 4.5 yds per carry.

Griffin: 2091 yards, 59.9 completion percentage, 15 TDs, 3 INTs, 846 yds rushing, 4.9 yds per carry.

It’s close, but the edge goes to Griffin in my opinion. What does that mean for the Deacs? Simple, the young defense will be tested early. The linebacker corps, without stars Stanley Arnoux and a guy by the name of Aaron Curry, will be asked to step up and fly to Griffin when he gets past the defensive line. The DEs will need to contain and stay disciplined. And the offense needs to sustain long drives to keep RG3 off the field. If those things happen, Wake Forest will be able to hold Griffin in check.

Ghee Leads Young Corners

Replacing a player like Alphonso Smith is never easy, but having an All-ACC caliber player such as senior Brandon Ghee certainly softens the blow. While most Wake fans are confident in his abilities, the other cornerbacks are unproven. Sophomore Michael Williams had a great spring and summer and was promoted to the other starting cornerback spot. At 6’1", he certainly has great size for the position as well as good hands, which he exhibited at the spring game by making a spectacular one-handed interception. Josh Bush, the only other returning defensive back with significant game experience, will likely see time at both safety and cornerback. Finally, make sure to look out for redshirt freshman Kenny Okoro on Saturday. Coach Grobe had great things to say about him during his redshirt season, so it will be interesting to see what kind of impact he makes in his debut. While it would likely be beneficial to give the corners a game or two to become comfortable on the field, this inexperienced unit will be tested instantly by the playmaking ability of Robert Griffin.

Weapons At Wideout

Before each Demon Deacon season it is tough to tell who will be the go-to guy at wide receiver. Last season Demir Boldin stepped up tremendously from his previous years and led the ACC in total receptions. This season is no different, as four guys look to step up and fill the void. The most experienced is Marshall Williams, who had a couple memorable touchdown receptions last season against Ole Miss and N.C. State.

Jordan Williams struggled to get playing time last season after earning snaps as a true freshman, but has improved his work ethic in an effort to make a big impact this season. Devon (Y’lou) Brown and freshman Chris Givens are both small, speedy receivers that will likely get some looks in the orbit as well. It will be intriguing to see if one guy stands out and becomes the primary receiver or if Wake has more of a receiver by committee approach.

Double-duty For Popham?

After being thrown into the fire last season after Sam Swank’s lingering injury, Shane Popham will look to prove that he belongs. After winning a tough battle against ex-soccer player Cline Beam and freshman Jimmy Newman, he should receive ample opportunity to demonstrate that he is a capable ACC-level kicker. The depth chart also reveals that he won the punting job over freshman Alex Wulfeck. It is also important to note that Popham will likely get a break from doing kickoffs, as Beam will likely serve this role after showing off his strong leg in practice thus far.

On the other side, Baylor does not appear to be any better off in this area. Bears sophomore kicker Ben Parks missed five extra point attempts last season and was only six of nine on field goals, with a long of 42.

The Battle In The Trenches

When Wake Forest is on the defensive side of the ball, one battle they must win is the one upfront. On paper, this is likely the Deacs’ biggest advantage in the game as emotional team leaders Boo Robinson and John Russell command attention against a Baylor offensive line with big holes to fill.

The Bears lost second overall NFL draft pick Jason Smith at left tackle as well as three year starter Dan Gay at right tackle. Looking to replace these losses are JuCo transfer Danny Watkins, who did not start playing football until junior college, and freshman Cameron Kaufhold. Baylor does, however, have experience at the interior positions, with three year starter James Barnard and talented center J.D. Walton leading the way, Mohawks and all.

For Wake, it will be important for the guys upfront to get pressure and try to minimize big play opportunities for Robert Griffin, especially young defensive ends Kyle Wilber and Tristan Dorty. As is the case in most games, the battle in the trenches will ultimately determine the outcome of Saturday’s showdown.

Not Just A Kid From Jacksonville

Riley Skinner has a mission this season: to bring another ACC Championship to Winston-Salem. That claim might seem outlandish, but not for a quarterback who in his freshman season took home the title and has led the team to two straight bowl wins since. Last season, despite the offensive line hiccups, Skinner still threw for 2,347 yards with a 65.8 completion percentage. His leadership will be the key to this season’s success.

With the team going back to the I-Formation this year, it is critical for Skinner to manage games the same way he has in the past by limiting mistakes and taking shots when he has the opportunity. As a quarterback goes, a team goes, and with Riley at the helm, the Demon Deacons should feel pretty good about getting to a fourth straight bowl game. All that stands in the way to a good start is the Baylor Bears, and don’t think for a second that Skinner isn’t ready for the challenge.

A Return To Smashmouth

The offensive line’s troubles last season have been well-documented. I’m not going to go into it. If you want proof, just look into the endless number of articles that have been written this summer about how the offensive line needs to step up after last season. That’s true. It is absolutely imperative that the Deacs go back to their strong point from seasons prior. With three completely capable running backs—Brandon Pendergrass, Josh Adams and White Lightning Kevin Harris—as well as two stud FBs in Rinfrette and freshman Tommy Bohanon, this team seems poised to break out in the running game in a big way.

They go up against a Baylor team that was 91st in the nation on the defensive line and lost three starters. But they do gain Phil Taylor, a player who has been maligned with all kinds of trouble, including being kicked off the Penn State team. Regardless, the kid is enormous at 6’4", 355 lbs. And that’s not a typo. Fortunately, the Deacs return their entire offensive line and all of the injuries and guys playing out of position last season should definitely help the depth and confidence of the unit. Having potential pro Chris DeGeare back from suspension certainly will not hurt either. I fully expect the Deacs to have a lot of success running the football this season.

Comparing the Online Recruiting Ranking Services

Buck Bravo — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

Rivals, Scout, and ESPN all provide ranking systems for recruits headed to Division 1 football programs. Often, ratings of individual players will vary greatly from one service to another. In an attempt to determine which service most accurately projects the future performance of players, let's take a look at the ratings that were given to the 2009 NFL first round draft picks back when they were being recruited for college football:

PICK

NAME

COLLEGE

TEAM

RIVALS

STARS

SCOUT

STARS

ESPN

RATING

Matthew Stafford

Georgia

Jason Smith

Baylor

Tyson Jackson

LSU

Aaron Curry

OLB

Wake Forest

Mark Sanchez

USC

Andre Smith

Alabama

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Maryland

Virginia

Boston College

Texas Tech

Penn State

Georgia

Texas

Ohio State

OLB

USC

Northern Illinois

Kansas State

Tennessee

Missouri

Oklahoma State

California

Florida

Ole Miss

Ole Miss

Illinois

OLB

USC

Donald Brown

Connecticut

Louisville

North Carolina

Rutgers

Ohio State

Missouri

ESPN did not start ranking recruits until 2006, so players from before that time have no ranking. Despite this limitation, let's look at the trend lines for the different services:

While Scout may have had the most 5 star rankings for recruits who ultimately became first round NFL draft choices, Rivals had the best trendline for accurately ranking future NFL talent. A more comprehensive analysis looking at later rounds and previous years would best determine which service best analyzes talent. If I were retired or writing for TDG full time, I'd be eager to put such a report together for later this week. For now, the first round of the 2009 NFL draft will have to suffice.

2009 Husker Football Opponent Preview: Baylor

Husker Mike — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:00:31 -0000

During the first twelve years of the Big XII, Baylor established themselves as the doormat of the conference in football. Some even suggested that Baylor be removed from the Big XII, feeling it was hopeless for the Bears to ever be able to compete. Certainly it's unclear whether Baylor would have ever been invited to join the Big XII if it wasn't for the efforts former Texas governor (and Baylor alumn) Ann Richards. But a funny thing happened in 2008. Baylor football showed signs of life.

Baylor hired former Houston coach Art Briles to take over for Guy Morriss, and convinced his prized recruit, quarterback Robert Griffin to sign with the Bears. The season started in typical Baylor fashion, losing 41-13 to Baylor. But two weeks later, the Bears caught the notice of the nation by walloping Washington State 45-17 as Robert Griffin ran for 217 yards. Baylor would go on to finish 4-8 and break out of the Big XII doghouse by defeating Iowa State and Texas A&M rather handily. From that squad, the Bears return 18 starters in 2009; a scary proposition for the rest of the conference.

Robert Griffin returns at quarterback after a stellar true freshman season, being named the Big XII offensive freshman of the year. A dual threat wizard, he rushed for 843 yards and 13 touchdowns, and threw for 2091 yards, 15 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. He set an NCAA freshman record by throwing 209 passes in a row without an interception, nearly breaking the Big XII mark of 213. That's downright scary. Then consider his speed: he's a legitimate track star who hopes to run in the 2012 London Olympics.

That's freaky scary. I guess for Nebraska's sake, it's probably better to have Baylor on the schedule for Griffin's freshman and sophomore seasons, as opposed to his junior and senior seasons.

But Baylor isn't a one-trick pony; running back Jay Finley did outrush Griffin last season, adding seven touchdowns to the mix. He'll ensure balance in the Bears offense for his junior season. Griffin's primary targets in the passing game will be sophomore Kendall Wright, with 649 yards and five touchdowns last season, and senior David Gettis, a former track star in his own right.

Up front, the Bears return two starters, senior right guard James Barnard and senior center J.D. Walton. They'll miss all-American left tackle Jason Smith, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams with the #2 pick this spring. Two junior college transfers will take over at tackle, junior right tackle Marquis Franklin and junior left tackle Danny Watkins. Watkins is a 24 year old Canadian who took up football a couple of years ago and became a junior college all-American.

If you were paying attention to the preseason all-Big XII teams, you might have been surprised that Baylor had more first team selections than Nebraska did. Here's the scary thing: they're all on defense. Up front, the Bears will be led by senior defensive end Jason Lamb and junior defensive tackle Phil Taylor. Taylor, who transferred from Penn State after getting into an on-campus fight, was named preseason newcomer of the year.

All three linebackers return, including all-Big XII senior middle linebacker Joe Pawelek, who had 128 tackles and six interceptions last season. Bookmarking Pawelek are the Antonios: senior Antonio Jones and junior Antonio Johnson.

In the secondary, two part time starters return at cornerback in juniors Antareis Bryan and Tim Atchison, but the star is senior all-Big XII safety Jordan Lake, who merely added 97 tackles and three interceptions last season. Senior Jeremy Williams will man the other safety spot.

Last year's Baylor squad got people's attention by scaring Connecticut, Nebraska, and Missouri last season. Just before Thanksgiving, the Bears beat A&M, thus ensuring that A&M can now be referred to as the "new Baylor" of the Big XII, since the Bears are no longer the conference doormat. This year, they get UConn and the Huskers at home. The schedule sets up a scary Halloween matchup for the Huskers with the Bears, who might finally be shaking the "Bad News Bears" reputation this season.

Poll

What happens when the Huskers visit Baylor on Halloween?

The Bears go down in flames, much like David Koresh's compound

47 votes

Just like last year, the Huskers find a way to win this game

177 votes

Baylor finally breaks through and wins a close one

65 votes

Baylor wins in a blowout, meaning that every Big XII team has embarrased Nebraska this decade.

37 votes

326 votes | Poll has closed

Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

We're to Day Two of everybody's favorite week of the preseason: Baylor Week. I close my eyes after typing that sentence and see confetti falling from the beautiful green and gold sky. Ahh, Baylor Week. Let's get to the stat-nerdy preview!

2008

Record: 4-8 (2-6 in conference)
S&P+: 212.4 (40th in the country, 8th in Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 336-352 (-16)
Conference Scoring Margin: 199-257 (-58)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): Texas A&M (#98), Iowa State (#104), Washington State (#118), Northwestern State (1-AA)
Losses: Oklahoma (#3), Texas (#5), Missouri (#10), Oklahoma State (#14), Texas Tech (#15), Nebraska (#21), Connecticut (#26), Wake Forest (#39)

First impressions from this rundown:

Baylor didn't beat a team ranked higher than 98th last year. Yes, they came close to beating Missouri and Texas Tech, but they didn't.
Baylor played SEVEN of the nation's top 26 teams according to S&P+, and eight of the top 40. Ouch.

Baylor was 0-3 in close games (i.e. final score within one possession), and that usually turns around from one year to another. Of course, all three came against highly-ranked teams (MU, Tech, UConn), meaning they might have overachieved just to keep it close....which doesn't foreshadow an automatic 1-2 game turnaround the next year.

In all, BU had a very respectable #40 overall ranking in S&P+. They beat everybody ranked below them (and by an average of 30.3 points) and lost to everybody ranked ahead of them (by an average of 17.1 points). After the first game of the season, a 28-point loss to Wake Forest, Baylor had a point differential of +12 in games started by Hot Tub Griffin III...for what that's worth.

The 2009 slate is maybe a smidge more forgiving, simply because UConn and Missouri probably won't be as good. Baylor starts with a trip to Wake Forest, then have three winnable non-con games against UConn, Northwestern State, and Kent. Their conference home games are against Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech--they'll probably have to win at least two of those games to end up bowl eligible, and based solely on my preseason projections, their two most likely wins out of that batch are against NU and Tech.

Coaching

Head Coach: Art Briles
Record at Baylor: 4-8 (conference: 2-6)
Overall Record (Houston 2003-07, Baylor 2008): 38-36
Career Pythagorean Record: 38.24 wins (+0.0/year)

Simply because he took the Baylor job, we know two things about him: he's fearless (and/or stupid), and he's got himself a healthy ego. You need those qualities to both accept the Baylor job and win in Waco, and though a 4-8 record is nothing to write home about, not every four-win season is the same. Just as Mizzou fans were thrilled with a 5-7 season in Brad Smith's freshman campaign, Baylor fans surely feel more optimistic right now than they have this millennium. Briles is a huge reason why, though the bigger, flashier reason is Mr. Robert Griffin.

Here's the deal, though: based on points scored, Baylor actually had a Pythagorean projection of 5.8 wins, 1.8 higher than what they actually managed. That's a big enough gap to suggest a poor coaching performance, but I'm not going to make that judgment after just one season. In five seasons at Houston, Briles' Cougars had a Pythagorean projection of 32.5 wins, or +0.7 per season. So overall his projected wins have almost exactly matched his actual wins, meaning his coaching probably doesn't hold his teams back too much.

Briles is and has always been an offensive coach. Flashy offense led him both to a) 172 wins at the high school level, and b) a spot on the Texas Tech coaching staff when Mike Leach came to Lubbock. He was running backs coach from 2000-02 before accepting the Houston job in 2003. His five teams in Houston averaged 30.6 points per game but allowed 29.4 (that number improved to 26.4 his final three seasons). With Griffin at the helm, it's pretty much a guarantee that Baylor will average healthy point totals over the next few years, but it's not yet a guarantee that they'll be able to keep enough points off the board to become a serious threat in the South.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 110.4 (#37)
Success Rate+: 100.9 (#58)
PPP+: 122.8 (#25)

Standard Downs S&P+: 102.1 (#59)
Passing Downs S&P+: 109.2 (#44)

Redzone S&P+: 111.7 (#37)

Q1 S&P+: 119.5 (#32)
Q2 S&P+: 116.0 (#26)
Q3 S&P+: 99.2 (#73)
Q4 S&P+: 85.8 (#108)

1st Down S&P+: 87.6 (#100)
2nd Down S&P+: 122.7 (#19)
3rd Down S&P+: 105.7 (#51)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 116.0 (#28)
Rushing SR+: 106.8 (#50)
Rushing PPP+: 130.5 (#24)

Standard Downs: 104.0 (#58)
Passing Downs: 133.8 (#19)

Redzone: 101.9 (#65)

Line Yards+: 103.8 (#57)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 105.1 (#47)
Passing SR+: 91.9 (#88)
Passing PPP+: 120.6 (#25)

Standard Downs: 103.8 (#51)
Passing Downs: 107.0 (#50)

Redzone: 139.3 (#10)

Sack Rate+*: 67.3 (#105)

* I've finally converted the sack rate figures to the "+" format used for everything else. This has also allowed me to change the way I rank offensive and defensive lines below, so some of the rankings have changed.

Some initial thoughts:

If you think about it, it makes sense that Baylor's PPP+ figures were much better than their Success Rate+ figures. They had a true freshman quarterback, and while they had their share of big plays, they didn't have enough of them to offset the lack of down-to-down success.
Their fourth-quarter struggles make sense when you remember that a) most of their wins were blowouts, meaning the first-stringers probably weren't in the game for a lot of fourth-quarters, b) most of their losses were blowouts, meaning the same thing, and c) they executed very poorly down the stretch in the close games in which they were involved--they averaged just 3.8 yards per play in the fourth quarters of their three close losses (UConn, MU, Tech). All of that adds up to pretty poor fourth-quarter numbers, no? It's still a little disconcerting that they were so much worse overall in the second half than the first.
I'm not sure I've seen bigger splits between 1st-, 2nd- and 3rd-downs. They were horrendous on first downs, very good on second, and okay on third.
As you would expect, they had solid success rushing the ball on Passing Downs--that's one of the more prevalent times where a QB will end up running with the ball, and we know that Griffin is one helluva runner.

Really, we'll know the Baylor offense is truly starting to come together when the efficiency improves. With Griffin at QB, the threat of the big play will always be there; but it's really hard to win, week in and week out, relying on the big play. You have to be able to stay out of trouble and move efficiently too.

Quarterback

2008 Unit Ranking: #28 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Hot Tub Griffin III (6'3, 200, So.)
Blake Szymanski (6'4, 205, Sr...Blizzle Szyzzle!)
Nick Florence (6'1, 180, RSFr.)

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Okay, now to the serious talk about Griffin. While he was limited in terms of personnel, and while he will eventually need to take more risks passing (which will almost certainly lead to more INTs), it really does take a while to figure out how Griffin (real first name: Robert...who knew?) could have improved on his freshman year, considering the team for whom he plays. A 59.9% completion rate, 2,091 passing yards, 15 TDs, 3 INTs, 142.0 QB Rating, 846 rushing yards, 4.9 yards per carry, 13 TDs. He was responsible for 28 touchdowns. Let's put that in perspective. Twenty-eight touchdowns is 196 points (with PATs). In Baylor's long losing streak (last winning record: 1995), they've scored fewer than 196 total points four times. Seriously. In all, Baylor's 336 total points were their most since 1994 (the last time they went to a bowl game), and considering Griffin was a true freshman last year, it's not hard to figure out why Baylor fans are excited.

So the question is, what will Griffin do for an encore? Can we just assume that his numbers will improve? Will the sophomore jinx kick in as more and more teams attempt to throw the Defending Brad Smith playbook at him, or is he so much better than Brad Smith (BLASPHEMY!!!) that it won't matter? And potentially most importantly, will he have more help this year? The longer he goes without serious offensive threats around him, the more likely he will become handcuffed eventually. Defensive coordinators are (usually) pretty smart guys, and they will figure out how to limit him if the supporting cast doesn't improve.

All I know for sure is, Griffin is likeable. Really likeable. Too likeable for a non-Mizzou player. He's so much fun to watch, and he's got so much potential that it's really hard not to root for him, at high volume, to succeed. Another good South team would do no favors for Missouri in terms of recruiting in the state of Texas, so it's best if Baylor stays a doormat, but that's not enough motivation for me to root against this guy.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #65 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jay Finley (5'11, 205, Jr.)
Jarred Salubi (5'10, 190, RSFr.)
Terrance Ganaway (6'0, 220, So.)

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

With Jones and Sanders either gone or at a different position, there is some new blood behind Finley. First, you've got redshirt freshman Jarred Salubi, a 2-star Waco product from the 2008 class, and Houston transfer Terrance Ganaway, who had a pretty decent freshman year with the Cougars, rushing for 550 yards and 6 TDs at 5.0 yards per carry. If either one of these guys can give Finley a little competition in the backfield, the Bears will be all the better.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

2008 Unit Ranking: #70 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Kendall Wright (5'11, 180, So.)
David Gettis (6'4, 210, Sr.)
Lanear Sampson (6'0, 190, RSFr.)
Ernest Smith (6'3, 195, Sr.)
Krys Buerck (5'11, 180, Jr.)
Mikail Baker (6'0, 205, Sr.)
Justin Fenty (5'9, 175, Sr.)
Terrance Williams (6'2, 190, RSFr.)
Kyle Mitchell (6'3, 220, Sr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Justin Akers (6'4, 250, Sr.)
Brad Taylor (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Matt Singletary (6'3, 245, So.)

Poor Kendall Wright. He had 50 catches for 649 yards and 5 TDs as a freshman last year, which in normal years would have pretty easily made him the best-performing freshman on the team. Instead he wasn't even the best-performing freshman at an offensive skill position. Wright certainly acquitted himself well in 2008--he had six catches for 114 yards and a touchdown against UConn, then put up a combined 14 catches for 212 yards and two TDs in back-to-back games against Iowa State and Oklahoma State. He finished rather slow--14 catches, 176 yards over his last four games--but he remains by far the most proven quantity in the Baylor receiving corps.

Joining Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #87 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C J.D. Walton (6'3, 305, Sr.)
G James Barnard (6'4, 295, Sr.)
G John Jones (6'4, 300, So.)
T Cameron Kaufhold (6'4, 285, RSFr.)
T Danny Watkins (6'4, 310, Jr.)
T Chris Griesenbeck (6'6, 275, Jr.)
G Jake Jackson (6'3, 285, RSFr.)
T Joe Korbel (6'6, 265, So.)
G Courtney Green (6'3, 265, So.)
C Hunter Hightower (6'5, 275, So.)

I've got to be honest: I have no idea how this unit included the 2009 NFL Draft's #2 overall pick. Unbeknownst to me, Jason Smith was a fortress at one tackle position. The other four guys dragged the unit to 87th in my OL Rankings. Ouch. Now Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

It appears that of the JUCO signees, Danny Watkins, a 4-star recruit from Butte (CA) C.C., has the best chance of stepping in and offering help immediately. Look for maybe one of the other JUCOs--either 6'7 Marquis Franklin or 6'4 Philip Blake--to jump into the rotation as well. Plus, you never want to rely on a true freshman to grasp everything he needs to grasp and contribute immediately, but 4-star stud Ivory Wade, from Dickinson, TX, will certainly have a chance to contribute immediately. This unit needed new blood, and it got it, but there's never any guarantee that the new blood will be any better than the purged blood.

Summary

Like Jonathan Moxon, Hot Tub Griffin III is only one man. Baylor has a couple guaranteed wins (NW'ern State, Kent State), and a couple of guaranteed losses (@OU, Texas), and the rest are relative tossups. If Baylor can go 4-4 in these games...

@ Wake Forest, UConn, @ Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, @ Missouri (yes, I'm broadly counting it as a tossup), @ Texas A&M, vs Texas Tech

...then they're bowling. And for them to do it, Griffin's going to need help from both old faces (Gettis, Finley, Walton, Barnard) and new ones (Salubi/Ganaway, Sampson, Watkins/Cameron Kaufhold). The explosiveness could be there--okay, the explosiveness WILL be there...this is Hot Tub III we're talking about here--but I worry that the efficiency still won't be up to snuff unless the new guys on the O-line can immediately make an impact. Otherwise Hot Tub III will still be running for his life quite a bit, and while he's as good as anybody on the run, you'd still prefer that he's not on the run a majority of the time.

Afternoon Minicamp roundup: Rust never sleeps

VanRam — Fri, 01 May 2009 20:46:25 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

7 months ago: St. Louis Rams rookie second-round draft pick linebacker James Laurinaitis runs with the ball during football minicamp at the Rams' training facility Friday, May 1, 2009, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Browse more photos »

Hopefully, you're expectations from the first day of minicamp weren't too great. It is minicamp after all, something more aking to a playbook study session than a full tilt practice with crunching hits and tempers flaring. July, that's when the real fun starts. In the meantime, however, this is a nice opportunity to grope (Chuck E Cheese style) at just what kind of team we've got. Be sure to click on the photo for a whole bunch more from minicamp today.

Some tidbits worth discussing...

Jason Smith practiced at RT with the second team. No worries. Unless, the guy's a complete flop, he'll work his way up to the first team by the time training camp rolls around.
Laurinaitis worked with the third team. I'm shocked we have enough LBs to have a third team. Spag's quote makes it sound like the rookies will work more with the starters as the camp progresses.
Ok, reading this item, I had to keep telling myself, "it's only rust," repeating it like a mantra. Bartell and Tye Hill struggling in coverage. Sheesh. Rust, rust, rust....
Setterstrom worked at C with the second team. He was all set to get some looks at C in camp last year before getting hurt. Setts has played okay when pressed into duty in the interior line in '06 and '07. If he can get stay healthy and get the snapping thing down, the Rams would have a nice sized backup center.

More randomness from across the web...

Steven Jackson is primed for a return to prominence with o-line upgrades.
CBS's Clark Judge thinks it should benefit Bulger too. We're counting on it.

Be sure to click on the more photos option on the photo above. We've got a slew of pics from today's minicamp.

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May Day minicamp notes: rookies shown the ropes

VanRam — Fri, 01 May 2009 15:04:02 -0000

Minicamp gets underway today, with the rookies and the veterans mixing it up. For the veterans, it's a voluntary deal, but it doesn't sound like anyone's missing from the weekend's activities, with just a couple of exceptions.

WR/KR Derek Stanley is still rehabbing his knee from a December injury, so he's out this weekend. Speaking of Stanley, is this guy the answer for the Rams as a kick returner? He proved to be an upgrade over the player formerly known as Dante Hall last year, but that's not saying much, not much at all. If the team re-signs Dane Looker, he could again see some work as punt returner, but seriously, is that the best we can do? Brooks Foster might be an option.

CB Justin King is still nursing his toe injury from last summer's training camp, and the Rams will keep him from pressing too hard in practice this weekend. Safety Craig Dahl, a former Spags depth player who saw playing time with the Giants in 2007, will be limited as well. (I think Todd Johnson's spot as the top backup S is safe. He's a good backup and looked good in that role last year replacing Corey Chavous).

Here's Spagnuolo on his minicamp:

Hopefully by the end of it, we will have a good idea on the rookies and what we have going forward and we’ll have advanced offensively and defensively scheme wise with the vets. It’s not a bad thing to go back and repeat some of the things we did in the first minicamp. The structure of the camp will be exactly the way it was in the first one.

Barron to remain at LT, for now

Another item of note is the mention that, for now, Spagnuolo will leave Alex Barron at left tackle. That's partly due to some continuity from the last minicamp, where Barron worked out as the starting LT, and reportedly the team like the early returns on Barron, who surely knows the value of playing well at LT heading into free agency. Don't panic, Smith's future with the team isn't on the right side, and the current configuration is pretty fluid, I suspect. This report cites an insider who says Richie Incognito is also playing for his future with the Rams this season.

Backup running backs

RamsGab has a good overview of the backup RB options on the roster, and makes a good point about the offensive line's role in contributing to the success of a running back. We've said it many, many times here before, it's a miracle Steven Jackson has the yards he does playing behind the clumps of paper mache the Rams have used as offensive linemen recently.

Another point I would add to the discussion here, is that of Jackson's injury history. Few positions go through the physical wear and tear that running backs do; that's why age 30 usually marks the end of being a full-time starter. Without adequate blocking, hard hitting linebackers and safeties roam can simply cheat up to the line and wait to explode on the running back as he hits the hole, if he even gets that far with some of the blocking we've seen lately. Facing those kind of situations regularly is a guaranteed injury.

Second pick Smith to begin Rams career on right side

Mocking Dan — Fri, 01 May 2009 14:02:49 -0000

More photos » by Jason DeCrow - AP

Browse more photos »

The clamoring to move second overall pick Jason Smith to left tackle begins ... now!

According to the Associated Press, Smith will the team's right tackle to begin the 2009 season.

The team will start Alex Barron on the left side, a position he's been inconsistent at. Whoever plays the left has the daunting task of replacing All Pro and probably hall of famer Orlando Pace.

Smith, a converted tight end, played two seasons at right tackle for Baylor.

The Rams begin minicamp today. Find more Rams coverage at Turf Show Times.

Random Ramsdom 4/29: More on Jason Smith and the cap

VanRam — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 14:29:51 -0000

For April, it's been a marathon of football lately, and we've only got a few days to catch our breath before the next minicamp that starts on Friday. Starting with some more insight on the Rams salary cap, here's a few items of note to start your morning.

Rams beat writer for the Post-Dispatch, Jim Thomas, gave a ballpark figure for what second overall draft pick OT Jason Smith's cap hit will likely be this year in yesterday's online chat. He estimates that Smith contract will entail a similar cap hit to Chris Long's deal from last season, which counted $2.9 million against the cap.

In the same chat session, Thomas predicts, and I would assume it's an informed prediction, that Smith and the Rams should be able to reach a deal in a timely manner, enough to keep him from missing team activities. There's plenty more information over there, so be sure to give it a read.

Still in despair that the Rams didn't take a QB in the draft this year, a starting QB anyway? Don't worry. Here's one 2010 mock draft that predicts the Rams trading a fourth overall pick for the Lions first overall in order to take Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford. I don't see it.

Randomness...

Jason Smith is the first Baylor player taken in the first round since 1996.
This analysis from Pro Football Weekly says Smith, of all the OTs taken this draft, is the most likely to be playing in a Pro Bowl in three years.
Did James Laurinaitis' consistently high levels of production at Ohio State actually make people forget about him?
What's that on your nose? One pundit says the Rams should look into free agent WR Matt Jones.
I want to hear some thoughts on this. Would Edgerrin James be a smart acquisition for the Rams? If he's willing to take a limited role, and the corresponding salary, he could have enough left to give and round out his case for the Hall of Fame. Thoughts?

Back at you later.

April 28th Sooner Sports Notebook

dishingoutdimes — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 16:33:46 -0000

It's a pretty quiet time in OU sports, so we'll take a look at lots of different sports headlines first. Track 'Em Tigers, the Auburn blog, has come up with an interesting list of things that should make a comeback in college football. What do you think?

The big play that everyone's been talking about lately is Jacoby Ellsbury's (Red Sox) straight steal of home. Here's the video, pretty amazing stuff.

Everyone's also been talking about the NFL Draft. Here's a recap that I put together yesterday regarding where various Sooners were drafted, and which ones have signed free agent contracts.

The Tulsa World blog makes a point about the 2007 Fiesta Bowl Reunion that is going on in Minnesota right now:

The Minnesota Vikings already had two would-be heroes from that epic night in Glendale, Ariz.: Adrian Peterson, who scored the overtime touchdown to temporarily put the Sooners ahead, and Marcus Walker, whose pick 6 also temporarily put OU ahead with a minute left in regulation.

Then came Sunday night, when the Vikes added undrafted rookie free agents Ian Johnson and Vinny Perretta from Boise State. Johnson, remember, scored the Statue of Liberty game-winner in OT, one play after Perretta's halfback touchdown pass on fourth-and-goal pulled the Broncos within 42-41.

Asked if he would talk any smack, Johnson replied:

"I don’t think I’m going to do that," Johnson told the Statesman. "(Peterson) is a little well-respected and he’s a little bit bigger than me now."

Smart guy. And now, on to all the notes...

In The News

Sports Illustrated offers some reasons why Duke Robinson fell to the 5th round in the draft, but still comes away as a steal.
Jay Cutler is already texting buddies with his new target, Juaquin Iglesias.
Speaking of Iglesias, he's pretty excited to be a Chicago Bear.
Lendy Holmes signed a free agent contract with the Redskins and feels like he got slighted by not being drafted. He'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder while he competes for a roster spot.
Oklahoma has added quite a few names recently to Tim Griffin's top 40 players in the Big 12 list. Gerald McCoy checks in at number 7. Travis Lewis is at number 9. DeMarco Murray is at number 11. Trent Williams is at number 14.
The Big 12 was the conference with the second most number of draft picks (7) in the first round. This broke the record of Big 12 conference first round selections. The previous record was 6 in 2003.
Meanwhile, the 2010 draft class from Oklahoma has the potential to be even better than this year's.
Spring football review from the Tulsa World.
Blake Griffin starts looking forward to his future in the NBA.

Around The Big 12

Enter Mike Leach, who is never afraid to speak his mind, has said all sorts of things related to the NFL Draft that make you wonder if he's just in a grumpy mood. Exhibit A: Saying that the A&M coaches didn't like Stephen McGee very much. Coach Leach better watch out or A&M will pass Tech in the standings this year. Exhibit B: Saying that Michael Crabtree has been more successful than Eric Mangini because the Browns soured on taking Crabtree with the 5th pick. He then floated the idea that the Browns will still finish with a bad record. Ironically enough, the Browns then wound up picking up Graham Harrell in free agency.
Speaking on non-drafted Big 12 quarterbacks, Chase Daniel signed a free agent contract with the Washington Redskins.
Baylor left tackle Jason Smith was drafted 2nd overall, the highest such mark for a Baylor player. He'll be playing for the Rams.
Iowa State didn't have a draft choice for the first time since 2004.
Quan Cosby hasn't caught on with a team yet. Pretty surprising given how much trouble he gave the Sooners. I would expect him to get invited to a camp.
Clone Chronicles discusses the impact of Craig Brackins' return.
Bring on the Cats discusses divisional realignment in the Big 12. It's an interesting article, and right now they seem opposed to the idea. This was one of the things I was planning on looking at in a football preview piece.
I am The 12th Man discusses Stephen McGee and other draft day thoughts.
Double T Nation gives a good recap of the ongoing Mike Leach saga.