SB Nation - Justin Akers

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:15:23 -0000

As we enter the second game of what Gary Pinkel is calling Mizzou's second season, let's take a look at where Art Briles' Baylor Bears present a threat, and where they've been hurt worst by the loss of Robert Griffin to a season-ending knee injury.

It was supposed to be different this year. Thanks to Hot Tub Griffin III, Baylor was going to threaten for a bowl game. They were actually exciting to watch for once, and Hot Tub was Rock M Nation's unanimous favorite non-Mizzou player.

Okay, you twisted my arm...one last time this season...

One last moment of silence, please. The knee injury that robbed Baylor (and us) of nine games of Hot Tub greatness* has left Baylor lifeless on offense, and despite an increase in overall team speed on offense and a relatively salty defense, the Bears sit at 3-5, 0-4 in the Big 12. Their best chance at a Big 12 win--a trip to Iowa State--ended with an easy, 14-point loss. We have all died a little inside without Hot Tub in our lives...and Baylor has died on the outside.

* Just for effect, I should once again point out that Griffin PLAYED THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN STATE GAME (well, all of the game that the first-string played) with a torn ACL suffered on the first possession, attempted three rushes, and went 16-for-19 passing with 226 yards and three touchdowns. With a torn ACL. God I love that guy.

Alright, now that we're past that, it's time to look at the team Baylor does have, and the amount of threat that they represent for Mizzou at 1pm on Faurot Field.

Offense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

We're going to start with Baylor's overall "+" ranking, presented as we've presented data for every opponent, but this comes with a rather obvious disclaimer: Baylor's last five games without Griffin have shown a different type of team than the one that made up a chunk of these ratings. We'll take a look at Baylor, pre- and post-Griffin injury, after the initial spew of data.

Baylor Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	BU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.7 (40)	111.7 (35)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	104.7 (53)	104.8 (45)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	129.7 (29)	122.4 (33)

Rushing S&P+	133.2 (5)	102.7 (63)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (73)	118.3 (30)

Standard Downs S&P+	114.6 (33)	112.5 (35)
Passing Downs S&P+	123.6 (35)	115.0 (36)

Red Zone S&P+	128.6 (22)	104.4 (61)

Q1 S&P+	136.2 (15)	95.5 (77)
Q2 S&P+	106.0 (63)	135.8 (12)
Q3 S&P+	124.5 (26)	112.2 (41)
Q4 S&P+	105.4 (55)	115.8 (34)

1st Down S&P+	122.2 (20)	108.0 (49)
2nd Down S&P+	127.0 (22)	112.3 (41)
3rd Down S&P+	101.1 (74)	113.8 (38)

Line Yards+	105.9 (52)	101.6 (61)
Close Sack Rate+	95.7 (73)	93.3 (72)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	106.7 (57) / 108.3 (56)	101.9 (57) / 123.0 (37)

Analysis after the jump.

Now, let's look at the Baylor offense with and without Hot Tub III.

Baylor Offense: With & Without Griffin
Category	With Griffin	W/out Griffin
Close S&P+	120.3	89.1
Close SR+	111.1	92.2
Close PPP+	129.5	84.1

Rushing S&P+	169.5	74.0
Passing S&P+	89.0	94.3

Standard Downs S&P+	132.3	82.0
Passing Downs S&P+	79.8	113.4

Red Zone S&P+	150.7	102.8

Q1 S&P+	169.9	98.6
Q2 S&P+	77.1	96.4
Q3 S&P+	183.6	80.7
Q4 S&P+	87.6	96.7

First, it is worth noting that BU's actually a better passing team with Florence than with Griffin. That's not the biggest shocker in the world, but it does show that Florence is at least solid. And he's got a pretty deep WR corps (deep in that the #2 guy is about equal to the #6 guy) to work with, plus a nice, offensive-minded head coach. Also, for whatever reason, they're better in both Q2 and Q4 with Florence than they were with Griffin. You figure that one out, as I have no idea; of course, they are infinitely worse in Q1 and Q3, so usually the game is lost by the time Q4 (or even Q2) comes about, it appears. Mizzou might do Baylor some favors, as they are usually not particularly great in Q1, but it appears that Q3 is death for the Bears (strange, considering BU outscored Nebraska 10-0 in Q3 last week).

When Baylor Has the Ball...
Baylor Rushing	Advantage: Missouri
Baylor Passing	Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Baylor:	Q1
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2-Q4

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. Where applicable, I'll look at post-Griffin numbers.

Close Success Rate+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+ (though Passing Downs is close)
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st Down, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for Baylor...

Q1 S&P+
2nd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Without Griffin, Baylor has found the going a lot rougher in terms of utilizing their other weapons--WR Kendall Wright, RB Jay Finley, etc. They still have at least a decent offensive line, but that line will need to execute against Missouri's rapidly improving defensive line, and they will need to generate some early points, as Missouri assumes more and more of an advantage as the game wears on. And if Baylor gets handed any easy opportunities through turnovers or special teams, they simply must convert those opportunities into touchdowns.

Quarterback

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Nick Florence: 84-for-147 passing (57.1%), 942 yards (6.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT

So...any great nicknames for Nick Florence yet? He needs you now more than ever. Really, Florence hasn't been too bad passing the ball. He hasn't been great, but considering two of his four Big 12 starts have come against Oklahoma and Nebraska, two of the three best defenses in the conference (this week, they play the fourth-best, followed by the overall best next week against Texas), his numbers haven't been too bad. He is indeed just a redshirt freshman, and he was thrown into a no-win situation; granted he indeed has no wins, but he could be a lot worse. Let's just say that he's absolutely no worse than Blizzle Szyzzle, Blake Szymanski. No offense intended, Mr. Blizzle.

Running Back

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

Jay Finley: 42 carries, 261 yards (6.2 per carry), 2 TD; 4 receptions, 24 yards (6.0 per catch)
Jarred Salubi: 42 carries, 249 yards (5.9 per carry), 2 TD; 17 receptions, 134 yards (7.9 per catch)
Terrance Ganaway: 34 carries, 134 yards (3.9 per carry), 3 TD; 1 reception, 13 yards

Between Jay Finley and Jarred Salubi, Baylor has managed a pretty decent first-string RB this year. Unfortunately, most of their success came early in the season. Finley had 121 yards on eight carries against UConn, while Salubi had 131 in seven carries against Northwestern State. Since Griffin's injury, Finley has managed 49 yards in just 20 carries (2.5 per carry) while recovering from a sprained ankle and pulled quad, while Salubi has only been slightly better at 118 yards in 35 carries (3.4 per carry). Injuries haven't helped here, but the injury that hurt most of all was obviously Griffin's. Without the dual threat QB, teams are able to focus a lot more on the RBs.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Joining [Kendall] Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

WR Kendall Wright: 40 catches, 448 yards (11.2 per catch), 2 TD; 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3 per carry), 1 TD
WR David Gettis: 31 catches, 426 yards (13.7 per catch), 3 TD
WR Ernest Smith: 26 catches, 280 yards (10.8 per catch); 1 carry, 5 yards
WR Lanear Sampson: 15 catches, 130 yards (8.7 per catch), 1 TD

TE Justin Akers: 14 catches, 124 yards (8.9 per catch), 1 TD
TE Brad Taylor: 8 catches, 90 yards (11.2 per catch)

In Baylor's first game post-Griffin, Kendall Wright had 125 yards in nine catches against Kent State, suggesting there was life even with a dry hot tub. However, in the past four games he has managed only 16 catches for 134 yards and has scored zero touchdowns (of course, Baylor as a whole has scored only four, so that's not saying a lot). Justin Akers (against OSU) and David Gettis (against Nebraska) have stepped up recently, but until more than one weapon shows up for a given game, Baylor's whole aerial attack is grounded. Wow, I did not intend that weak pun there. C'est la vie.

Offensive Line

Now [Jason] Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

Looking at Baylor's Line Yardage and Sack Rates, you get the distinct impression that this isn't a particularly good or bad line. In fact, with rankings around 60th in all categories, you could say the line is actually perfectly average. Unfortunately for Baylor, Mizzou's defensive line has been improving significantly in conference play and is quite likely well above average right now, especially with Aldon Smith surging and a much less mobile quarterback looking for open receivers. This matchup has gone from a draw to a distinct Mizzou advantage in recent weeks.

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Defense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Baylor Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	BU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	100.0 (60)	106.2 (57)
Close Success Rate+	94.2 (84)	103.6 (58)
Close PPP+	109.0 (44)	112.8 (56)

Rushing S&P+	86.3 (98)	102.1 (67)
Passing S&P+	118.4 (29)	110.8 (51)

Standard Downs S&P+	99.5 (63)	105.0 (60)
Passing Downs S&P+	109.1 (47)	109.7 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	122.7 (32)	70.7 (114)

Q1 S&P+	89.0 (86)	117.9 (50)
Q2 S&P+	102.5 (63)	100.2 (73)
Q3 S&P+	109.8 (45)	111.9 (52)
Q4 S&P+	101.1 (61)	102.4 (65)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (58)	102.6 (66)
2nd Down S&P+	95.2 (75)	106.6 (64)
3rd Down S&P+	109.1 (50)	118.9 (38)

Line Yards+	87.1 (101)	101.3 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	89.9 (78)	173.9 (16)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	79.1 (93) / 115.6 (45)	243.4 (8) / 124.7 (41)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage(ish): Baylor
Best Time for Baylor:	Q2-Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q1, Q4

With Gabbert looking much, much healthier against Colorado, we can at least tentatively put an end to the "injured Gabbert" period. So, since we did the "pre-and-post" treatment for Baylor, should we do the same for Mizzou? We know that Mizzou's offensive stats plummeted with Gabbert's ankle sprain, but we also know that the defenses Mizzou faced at that time were much better. Luckily, we have "+" numbers to account for the difference in competition level! So here are the numbers for when Blaine Gabbert had one and two healthy ankles (the "one healthy ankle" stats are for the last three quarters of the Nebraska game and all of the Texas and OSU games):

Missouri Offense: Healthy vs Injured Gabbert
Category	Healthy #11	Injured #11
Close S&P+	107.1	94.3
Close SR+	101.2	95.3
Close PPP+	114.1	93.1

Rushing S&P+	85.4	117.1
Passing S&P+	119.3	81.6

Standard Downs S&P+	103.4	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	90.9	98.2

Red Zone S&P+	70.6	108.4

Q1 S&P+	93.7	116.3
Q2 S&P+	91.3	107.2
Q3 S&P+	108.2	31.5
Q4 S&P+	101.7	81.4

Mizzou was significantly better at both rushing and red zone offense when Gabbert was hurt, but I think there is a bit of noise in the statistics there. Mizzou got a lot of credit for the touchdown they scored on their lone red zone trip against Texas, and that balanced out their craptastic execution against OSU. Either way, that's a damn small sample size. Meanwhile, the rushing success didn't seem to have anything to do with Gabbert limping around--it was seemingly more a result of Missouri's offensive line simply blocking better (and, potentially, their running backs running better).

Either way, we're definitely working with a small sample size here, but there are some conclusions that can be reached: 1) while Missouri's second-half execution against Colorado left something (okay, a lot) to be desired, they are still a much, much better second-half team with a healthy Gabbert. It's almost as if Missouri was able to disguise Gabbert's injury with good game-planning, but by the second half, they were out of tricks. Now, with Gabbert throwing more accurate passes and pulling down a couple of keepers, Missouri has a lot more options. Also, and this is some incredible statistical analysis here, 2) Missouri is a much better passing team when their quarterback can actually hit his targets.

With that in mind, let's look at Missouri's "healthy Gabbert" advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+
Sack Rates+

Baylor's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2 S&P+

With a healthy Gabbert, the passing game seems to be a draw, as do Q3 and Q4 S&P+ and 1st Down S&P+.

Defensive Line

Beyond [Penn State transfer Phil] Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

DE/DT Jason Lamb: 21.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 2 Blocked Kicks
DT Trey Bryant: 15.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 3 QBH
DE Zac Scotton: 12.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Phil Taylor: 11.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 QBH, 2 Blocked Kicks
DE Tracy Robertson: 10.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 3 QBH

So...has vaunted transfer Phil Taylor actually made a difference? Baylor's pass defense has actually been pretty solid, but their rushing defense has been horrible. If Mizzou's offensive line was able to open up holes for Derrick Washington and company and protect Blaine Gabbert from Colorado pass rushers, there's nothing saying they won't be able to do the same (and better) against Baylor. Maybe Taylor really is a difference-maker, but the rest of the line has been just terrible? Jason Lamb, who has been playing at Baylor since Grant Teaff was coach, has put up some decent numbers--as good as those of Mizzou's Jaron Baston and Dominique Hamilton--but he's pretty much it. If he's not making a nice play, then Baylor's relying on the LBs.

Linebackers

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Joe Pawelek: 52.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 2 PBU
Antonio Jones: 47.0 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
Antonio Johnson: 41.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU
Chris Francis: 21.0 tackles
Elliot Coffey: 20.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Earl Patin: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

I really was pretty impressed with Joe Pawelek last year, but while he's been rock solid this year, it doesn't seem like he's been quite the playmaker I was expecting. He's still good, though, and the Two Antonios have combined with Pawelek to form what is certainly a decent unit. As I put it in the offseason, Baylor has struggled in certain areas (i.e. run defense), but they're not the reason why. And they're fast enough to do decent things in pass coverage.

Secondary

Jordan Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

S Jordan Lake: 48.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF
S Jeremy Williams: 25.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
CB Clifton Odom: 22.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 4 PBU
S Byron Landor: 22.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBU
CB Tim Atchison: 21.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 PBU
CB Chance Casey: 18.5 tackles, 2 INT, 1 QBH, 4 PBU
S Mike Hicks: 12.5 tackles

If Pawelek hasn't been quite what I thought this year, Jordan Lake REALLY hasn't been what I thought. He was a pretty strong, disruptive player in 2008; this year, he's just a tackler. One forced fumble, one tackle for loss, and no interceptions? Huh. In all, though, Baylor's pass defense really has been pretty decent this year; I mean, ranking 47th isn't amazing by any means, but with a sieve for a run defense, the secondary has been the least of their problems. Can you tell I haven't at all been impressed with their defensive line?

Special Teams

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Punt Returns Rank: 22nd (Krys Buerck: 12 Returns, 7.5 Avg)
Net Punting Rank: 89th (Derek Epperson: 45.2 Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 39th (Terrance Williams: 13 Returns, 26.0 Avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 44th

Field Goals: 4-for-8 (Long: 41) (113th)
PATs: 17-for-18

If the special teams play involves a Baylor player with the ball in his hands, running upfield, then Baylor's special teams unit is pretty solid. If it involves somebody in a Baylor uniform kicking...not so much. Derek Epperson ranks in the nation's top 20 in overall punt average, but their net average has been hurt by two blocked punts, and they're giving up almost 17 yards per return (with one touchdown). Ouch. And Ben Parks has been far from great as place-kicker. But hey, Krys Buerck and Terrance Williams are bright spots. That's something.

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Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over. With Blaine Gabbert's arm, I love the idea of going deep quite a few times, but with the advantages Missouri will have in other regards, Missouri really just needs to avoid Passing Downs disaster, and they should be alright. It's rare one of my keys is "stay relatively conservative and don't do anything stupid," but that does appear to be the case here. I like to surprise myself sometimes.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. (SPREAD DOESN'T WORK NEED FULLBACK RAWR!!!!! ET CETERA. Just thought I'd get that out of the way so that doesn't come up and I don't have to point out that Missouri's red zone offense has been just fine in the spread the last few years.) Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

Prediction

Clearly this is Missouri's game to lose. It is Baylor at home, after all. However, even without Robert Griffin, this Baylor team has more weapons and team speed than previous Bears iterations, and if Missouri lets them hang around, loses the turnover battle, gets some bad bounces, allows a big play or two, etc., Baylor can absolutely win this game. As long as Missouri plays average or better, they should move to 6-3 and bowl eligibility. The numbers say Mizzou by 16.5, so we'll say Mizzou 30, Baylor 13. Run the ball well, rip off a big play or two, don't commit any awful turnovers, and let Mizzou's defensive weapons--Sean Weatherspoon, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, etc.--make the plays they can make.

Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

We're to Day Two of everybody's favorite week of the preseason: Baylor Week. I close my eyes after typing that sentence and see confetti falling from the beautiful green and gold sky. Ahh, Baylor Week. Let's get to the stat-nerdy preview!

2008

Record: 4-8 (2-6 in conference)
S&P+: 212.4 (40th in the country, 8th in Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 336-352 (-16)
Conference Scoring Margin: 199-257 (-58)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): Texas A&M (#98), Iowa State (#104), Washington State (#118), Northwestern State (1-AA)
Losses: Oklahoma (#3), Texas (#5), Missouri (#10), Oklahoma State (#14), Texas Tech (#15), Nebraska (#21), Connecticut (#26), Wake Forest (#39)

First impressions from this rundown:

Baylor didn't beat a team ranked higher than 98th last year. Yes, they came close to beating Missouri and Texas Tech, but they didn't.
Baylor played SEVEN of the nation's top 26 teams according to S&P+, and eight of the top 40. Ouch.

Baylor was 0-3 in close games (i.e. final score within one possession), and that usually turns around from one year to another. Of course, all three came against highly-ranked teams (MU, Tech, UConn), meaning they might have overachieved just to keep it close....which doesn't foreshadow an automatic 1-2 game turnaround the next year.

In all, BU had a very respectable #40 overall ranking in S&P+. They beat everybody ranked below them (and by an average of 30.3 points) and lost to everybody ranked ahead of them (by an average of 17.1 points). After the first game of the season, a 28-point loss to Wake Forest, Baylor had a point differential of +12 in games started by Hot Tub Griffin III...for what that's worth.

The 2009 slate is maybe a smidge more forgiving, simply because UConn and Missouri probably won't be as good. Baylor starts with a trip to Wake Forest, then have three winnable non-con games against UConn, Northwestern State, and Kent. Their conference home games are against Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech--they'll probably have to win at least two of those games to end up bowl eligible, and based solely on my preseason projections, their two most likely wins out of that batch are against NU and Tech.

Coaching

Head Coach: Art Briles
Record at Baylor: 4-8 (conference: 2-6)
Overall Record (Houston 2003-07, Baylor 2008): 38-36
Career Pythagorean Record: 38.24 wins (+0.0/year)

Simply because he took the Baylor job, we know two things about him: he's fearless (and/or stupid), and he's got himself a healthy ego. You need those qualities to both accept the Baylor job and win in Waco, and though a 4-8 record is nothing to write home about, not every four-win season is the same. Just as Mizzou fans were thrilled with a 5-7 season in Brad Smith's freshman campaign, Baylor fans surely feel more optimistic right now than they have this millennium. Briles is a huge reason why, though the bigger, flashier reason is Mr. Robert Griffin.

Here's the deal, though: based on points scored, Baylor actually had a Pythagorean projection of 5.8 wins, 1.8 higher than what they actually managed. That's a big enough gap to suggest a poor coaching performance, but I'm not going to make that judgment after just one season. In five seasons at Houston, Briles' Cougars had a Pythagorean projection of 32.5 wins, or +0.7 per season. So overall his projected wins have almost exactly matched his actual wins, meaning his coaching probably doesn't hold his teams back too much.

Briles is and has always been an offensive coach. Flashy offense led him both to a) 172 wins at the high school level, and b) a spot on the Texas Tech coaching staff when Mike Leach came to Lubbock. He was running backs coach from 2000-02 before accepting the Houston job in 2003. His five teams in Houston averaged 30.6 points per game but allowed 29.4 (that number improved to 26.4 his final three seasons). With Griffin at the helm, it's pretty much a guarantee that Baylor will average healthy point totals over the next few years, but it's not yet a guarantee that they'll be able to keep enough points off the board to become a serious threat in the South.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 110.4 (#37)
Success Rate+: 100.9 (#58)
PPP+: 122.8 (#25)

Standard Downs S&P+: 102.1 (#59)
Passing Downs S&P+: 109.2 (#44)

Redzone S&P+: 111.7 (#37)

Q1 S&P+: 119.5 (#32)
Q2 S&P+: 116.0 (#26)
Q3 S&P+: 99.2 (#73)
Q4 S&P+: 85.8 (#108)

1st Down S&P+: 87.6 (#100)
2nd Down S&P+: 122.7 (#19)
3rd Down S&P+: 105.7 (#51)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 116.0 (#28)
Rushing SR+: 106.8 (#50)
Rushing PPP+: 130.5 (#24)

Standard Downs: 104.0 (#58)
Passing Downs: 133.8 (#19)

Redzone: 101.9 (#65)

Line Yards+: 103.8 (#57)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 105.1 (#47)
Passing SR+: 91.9 (#88)
Passing PPP+: 120.6 (#25)

Standard Downs: 103.8 (#51)
Passing Downs: 107.0 (#50)

Redzone: 139.3 (#10)

Sack Rate+*: 67.3 (#105)

* I've finally converted the sack rate figures to the "+" format used for everything else. This has also allowed me to change the way I rank offensive and defensive lines below, so some of the rankings have changed.

Some initial thoughts:

If you think about it, it makes sense that Baylor's PPP+ figures were much better than their Success Rate+ figures. They had a true freshman quarterback, and while they had their share of big plays, they didn't have enough of them to offset the lack of down-to-down success.
Their fourth-quarter struggles make sense when you remember that a) most of their wins were blowouts, meaning the first-stringers probably weren't in the game for a lot of fourth-quarters, b) most of their losses were blowouts, meaning the same thing, and c) they executed very poorly down the stretch in the close games in which they were involved--they averaged just 3.8 yards per play in the fourth quarters of their three close losses (UConn, MU, Tech). All of that adds up to pretty poor fourth-quarter numbers, no? It's still a little disconcerting that they were so much worse overall in the second half than the first.
I'm not sure I've seen bigger splits between 1st-, 2nd- and 3rd-downs. They were horrendous on first downs, very good on second, and okay on third.
As you would expect, they had solid success rushing the ball on Passing Downs--that's one of the more prevalent times where a QB will end up running with the ball, and we know that Griffin is one helluva runner.

Really, we'll know the Baylor offense is truly starting to come together when the efficiency improves. With Griffin at QB, the threat of the big play will always be there; but it's really hard to win, week in and week out, relying on the big play. You have to be able to stay out of trouble and move efficiently too.

Quarterback

2008 Unit Ranking: #28 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Hot Tub Griffin III (6'3, 200, So.)
Blake Szymanski (6'4, 205, Sr...Blizzle Szyzzle!)
Nick Florence (6'1, 180, RSFr.)

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Okay, now to the serious talk about Griffin. While he was limited in terms of personnel, and while he will eventually need to take more risks passing (which will almost certainly lead to more INTs), it really does take a while to figure out how Griffin (real first name: Robert...who knew?) could have improved on his freshman year, considering the team for whom he plays. A 59.9% completion rate, 2,091 passing yards, 15 TDs, 3 INTs, 142.0 QB Rating, 846 rushing yards, 4.9 yards per carry, 13 TDs. He was responsible for 28 touchdowns. Let's put that in perspective. Twenty-eight touchdowns is 196 points (with PATs). In Baylor's long losing streak (last winning record: 1995), they've scored fewer than 196 total points four times. Seriously. In all, Baylor's 336 total points were their most since 1994 (the last time they went to a bowl game), and considering Griffin was a true freshman last year, it's not hard to figure out why Baylor fans are excited.

So the question is, what will Griffin do for an encore? Can we just assume that his numbers will improve? Will the sophomore jinx kick in as more and more teams attempt to throw the Defending Brad Smith playbook at him, or is he so much better than Brad Smith (BLASPHEMY!!!) that it won't matter? And potentially most importantly, will he have more help this year? The longer he goes without serious offensive threats around him, the more likely he will become handcuffed eventually. Defensive coordinators are (usually) pretty smart guys, and they will figure out how to limit him if the supporting cast doesn't improve.

All I know for sure is, Griffin is likeable. Really likeable. Too likeable for a non-Mizzou player. He's so much fun to watch, and he's got so much potential that it's really hard not to root for him, at high volume, to succeed. Another good South team would do no favors for Missouri in terms of recruiting in the state of Texas, so it's best if Baylor stays a doormat, but that's not enough motivation for me to root against this guy.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #65 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jay Finley (5'11, 205, Jr.)
Jarred Salubi (5'10, 190, RSFr.)
Terrance Ganaway (6'0, 220, So.)

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

With Jones and Sanders either gone or at a different position, there is some new blood behind Finley. First, you've got redshirt freshman Jarred Salubi, a 2-star Waco product from the 2008 class, and Houston transfer Terrance Ganaway, who had a pretty decent freshman year with the Cougars, rushing for 550 yards and 6 TDs at 5.0 yards per carry. If either one of these guys can give Finley a little competition in the backfield, the Bears will be all the better.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

2008 Unit Ranking: #70 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Kendall Wright (5'11, 180, So.)
David Gettis (6'4, 210, Sr.)
Lanear Sampson (6'0, 190, RSFr.)
Ernest Smith (6'3, 195, Sr.)
Krys Buerck (5'11, 180, Jr.)
Mikail Baker (6'0, 205, Sr.)
Justin Fenty (5'9, 175, Sr.)
Terrance Williams (6'2, 190, RSFr.)
Kyle Mitchell (6'3, 220, Sr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Justin Akers (6'4, 250, Sr.)
Brad Taylor (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Matt Singletary (6'3, 245, So.)

Poor Kendall Wright. He had 50 catches for 649 yards and 5 TDs as a freshman last year, which in normal years would have pretty easily made him the best-performing freshman on the team. Instead he wasn't even the best-performing freshman at an offensive skill position. Wright certainly acquitted himself well in 2008--he had six catches for 114 yards and a touchdown against UConn, then put up a combined 14 catches for 212 yards and two TDs in back-to-back games against Iowa State and Oklahoma State. He finished rather slow--14 catches, 176 yards over his last four games--but he remains by far the most proven quantity in the Baylor receiving corps.

Joining Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #87 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C J.D. Walton (6'3, 305, Sr.)
G James Barnard (6'4, 295, Sr.)
G John Jones (6'4, 300, So.)
T Cameron Kaufhold (6'4, 285, RSFr.)
T Danny Watkins (6'4, 310, Jr.)
T Chris Griesenbeck (6'6, 275, Jr.)
G Jake Jackson (6'3, 285, RSFr.)
T Joe Korbel (6'6, 265, So.)
G Courtney Green (6'3, 265, So.)
C Hunter Hightower (6'5, 275, So.)

I've got to be honest: I have no idea how this unit included the 2009 NFL Draft's #2 overall pick. Unbeknownst to me, Jason Smith was a fortress at one tackle position. The other four guys dragged the unit to 87th in my OL Rankings. Ouch. Now Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

It appears that of the JUCO signees, Danny Watkins, a 4-star recruit from Butte (CA) C.C., has the best chance of stepping in and offering help immediately. Look for maybe one of the other JUCOs--either 6'7 Marquis Franklin or 6'4 Philip Blake--to jump into the rotation as well. Plus, you never want to rely on a true freshman to grasp everything he needs to grasp and contribute immediately, but 4-star stud Ivory Wade, from Dickinson, TX, will certainly have a chance to contribute immediately. This unit needed new blood, and it got it, but there's never any guarantee that the new blood will be any better than the purged blood.

Summary

Like Jonathan Moxon, Hot Tub Griffin III is only one man. Baylor has a couple guaranteed wins (NW'ern State, Kent State), and a couple of guaranteed losses (@OU, Texas), and the rest are relative tossups. If Baylor can go 4-4 in these games...

@ Wake Forest, UConn, @ Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, @ Missouri (yes, I'm broadly counting it as a tossup), @ Texas A&M, vs Texas Tech

...then they're bowling. And for them to do it, Griffin's going to need help from both old faces (Gettis, Finley, Walton, Barnard) and new ones (Salubi/Ganaway, Sampson, Watkins/Cameron Kaufhold). The explosiveness could be there--okay, the explosiveness WILL be there...this is Hot Tub III we're talking about here--but I worry that the efficiency still won't be up to snuff unless the new guys on the O-line can immediately make an impact. Otherwise Hot Tub III will still be running for his life quite a bit, and while he's as good as anybody on the run, you'd still prefer that he's not on the run a majority of the time.

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 16:00:09 -0000

I'm suddenly running behind this week, so...less talk, more numbers...

Missouri	Opp.		Baylor	Opp.
49.9%		% Close	56.2%
56.1%	43.9%	Field Position %	39.3%	60.7%
76.8%	67.6%	Leverage %	66.8%	71.1%

		Total
551	605	Plays	509	608
291.70	187.43	EqPts	197.47	205.98
57.2%	40.8%	Success Rate	40.9%	45.1%
0.53	0.31	PPP	0.39	0.34
1.101	0.718	S&P	0.797	0.789

		Close Games
316	261	Plays	280	348
166.56	84.37	EqPts	121.41	130.77
57.6%	41.4%	Success Rate	40.7%	47.4%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.43	0.38
1.103	0.737	S&P	0.841	0.850

		Rushing
103.11	187.43	EqPts	108.00	95.71
50.9%	40.8%	Success Rate	42.2%	45.7%
0.45	0.31	PPP	0.37	0.30
0.961	0.718	S&P	0.789	0.754
3.18	2.18	Line Yds/carry	2.83	2.95

		Passing
188.58	126.15	EqPts	89.47	110.27
61.6%	43.8%	Success Rate	39.1%	44.4%
0.58	0.38	PPP	0.42	0.39
1.200	0.821	S&P	0.807	0.830
2.2%	6.1%	Sack Rate	9.7%	5.2%

		Non-Passing Downs
61.9%	46.0%	Success Rate	46.5%	49.8%
0.55	0.32	PPP	0.38	0.33
1.168	0.780	S&P	0.846	0.827
1.3%	4.7%	Sack Rate	7.1%	3.1%
47.0%	53.3%	Run Rate	70.9%	63.0%

		Passing Downs
41.4%	30.1%	Success Rate	29.6%	33.5%
0.47	0.29	PPP	0.40	0.36
0.880	0.588	S&P	0.697	0.696
4.0%	8.0%	Sack Rate	10.3%	7.9%
22.7%	29.6%	Run Rate	44.8%	33.3%

		Turnovers
10	13	Total	7	15
26.18	31.36	Points Lost	19.55	40.60
25.07	52.28	Points Given	16.16	29.65
51.25	83.64	Total T/O Pts	35.71	70.25
+32.39	-32.39	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	+34.54	-34.54

Thoughts after the jump...

Baylor's defensive numbers are decent, but they are getting dominated in the field position battle, and if you give your opponents a 60-yard field while working on an 80-yard field, eventually you're going to tumble. They do a pretty good job of forcing Passing Downs, though.
As a reminder about my piece from the other day, Missouri currently has the best rushing defense in the Big 12 and second-best defense on Non-Passing Downs. Only Colorado is worse than Baylor in terms of Passing Downs success, so this could be big. Robert Griffin's (I felt I owed it to him to say his name right at least once) legs are obviously a concern (especially considering Baylor runs the ball almost 50% of the time in Passing Downs...meaning lots of QB draws), but he can only pull so many rabbits out of his hat. Force Baylor into enough Passing Downs, and this one's over.
Credit to Griffin for (as strange as this may sound) committing to being a QB. You see those high sack rates? With Griffin's elusiveness, that suggests that he really does stick around in the pocket trying to complete a pass. It might not be smart necessarily, but it's admirable.
You've also got to love Griffin's 9-to-0 TD-INT ratio. Anytime your ratio is infinity, you're doing pretty well. I expect the ratio to become a real number this week, though. Just a hunch.
It's amazing how playing Colorado makes your pass defense numbers look a whole helluva lot better. Missouri almost has it's Pass Defense S&P below 0.800!

Alright, let's see what the situational numbers tell us...

Missouri	Opp.		Baylor	Opp.
		Q1
55.6%	50.8%	Success Rate	45.1%	47.3%
0.56	0.34	PPP	0.39	0.36
1.116	0.849	S&P	0.839	0.838

		Q2
56.4%	41.0%	Success Rate	38.1%	50.0%
0.51	0.30	PPP	0.49	0.35
1.078	0.714	S&P	0.872	0.851

		Q3
62.7%	39.1%	Success Rate	36.8%	38.6%
0.62	0.36	PPP	0.31	0.30
1.250	0.748	S&P	0.677	0.682

		Q4
52.9%	40.0%	Success Rate	41.7%	41.8%
0.38	0.34	PPP	0.30	0.31
0.914	0.736	S&P	0.712	0.724

		1st Downs
59.8%	44.8%	Success Rate	38.6%	44.4%
0.56	0.36	PPP	0.26	0.29
1.159	0.805	S&P	0.648	0.732

		2nd Downs
58.4%	37.6%	Success Rate	46.5%	42.5%
0.47	0.31	PPP	0.53	0.34
1.057	0.685	S&P	0.991	0.760

		3rd Downs
49.3%	44.7%	Success Rate	37.4%	44.9%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.41	0.41
1.021	0.765	S&P	0.788	0.860

It's impressive how close the performance of Baylor and their opponents is on a per-quarter basis. Doesn't really say anything, but it's interesting. Also interesting: Baylor has its most success at the beginning of the game, but their offensive act wears thin as the game progresses. This could actually help Baylor a bit, as Missouri is at its most vulnerable in Q1. I could definitely see a situation where the game is tied for a while in Q1 and maybe Q2, and Missouri slowly pulls away.
Meanwhile Baylor THRIVES on 2nd downs. As does the Missouri defense. I still have yet to figure out the significance of 2nd downs--why some teams are amazing at them and bad at 1st/3rd downs, and vice versa--but it's certainly the linchpin down for the Bears.
Baylor's defense tends to get incrementally worse on each down, as does, actually, Missouri's offense.

Key Players: Baylor

QB Hot Tub Griffin III

Let's not beat around the bush here. If Baylor is to beat Missouri, it's going to be by Robert Griffin pulling a "2002 Brad Smith against Oklahoma."

RB Jay Finley

Baylor's second-best offensive weapon, Finley is averaging 6.0 yards and a serviceable 0.806 S&P per carry. He's not to be mistaken for Demarco Murray or something here (as his meager 0.39 PPP would suggest), but he's not bad. And obviously if five guys are keying on Griffin, that opens up holes for Finley. The other options for "Most important offensive player other than Griffin" are either WR Kendall Wright or WR Justin Akers, the Bears' two best WR weapons from a PPP (i.e. explosiveness) perspective.

LB Joe Pawelek

Baylor's leader in INTs, fumble recoveries and QB Hurries (plus their almost leader in Tackles for Loss), Pawelek is a solid player and clearly the closest-thing Baylor has to a game-changer on defense. He's got a ridiculous number of tackles, but that doesn't mean much against an offense that spreads you from sideline to sideline. He's on this list because he makes the big plays. Plus, you have to figure he'll end up matched up with Chase Coffman at least a little bit. Good luck with that.

KR Mikail Baker

BU's starting D-line has only managed 4.5 sacks this year, and while DE Leon Freeman might actually be pretty decent, we're going in a different direction with the last Key Player pick. Buffalo hung with Mizzou for a while, in part because Ernest Jackson took a kick deep early in the game. It gave both the Buffalo offense and defense a chance to get their bearings and stay in the game. Baker has a kick return TD this year, and while he has otherwise been only average, if he can return another one, it could keep Baylor close.

Key Players: Mizzou

TE Chase Coffman

I'm mainly putting him on here because I haven't put him on here yet, and his play over the last few games has been unreal, even for him. Jeremy Maclin is doing his best to assure himself of a double-team over the rest of the season (if teams aren't doing that already), which just increases the odds that Coffman will be lined up in the slot, one-on-one with a soon-to-be hapless linebacker. Which means very, very good things for Missouri.

Also, I just can't help but be amazed that he hurdles somebody EVERY SINGLE WEEK. That CU defender he hurdled last week didn't even crouch down very far, and he still hurdled him. The Flying Nunchuk will live on forever. Knowshon who?

OL Colin Brown

Really, I was going to list the entire O-line, but Brown has had a ridiculous number of false start penalties in the last couple of games, and because of that he was the only member of the Mizzou O-line that didn't completely dominate last week. The only times Mizzou has stumbled this year, it was mostly because the line didn't block well at all. Baylor doesn't have much to offer in terms of Defensive Line prowess, but decent players like Trey Bryant and Leon Freeman could still have a decent day if Mizzou's O-line isn't clicking. No pressure on Daniel = no chance for Baylor.

LB Brock Christopher, LB Sean Weatherspoon, FS William Moore, or whoever ends up shadowing Hot Tub Griffin III the most

Shadowing Griffin has to be Job #1 for the Mizzou defense. He's going to get yards on scrambles, but if you hold him to 5-15 yards instead of 25-infinity yards, and you make the poor-success-rate offense go the length of the field, they'll likely stumble along the way. I could see Mizzou somewhat busting out the Illinois gameplan--have Moore chase Griffin all game and see if he can throw the deep ball like Juice Williams can (he can't...well, maybe he can, but he doesn't have the WRs).

P Jake Harry

I'm reaching here, but there is no other player who is more closely tied to Mizzou's success than Harry. Harry doesn't see the field, Mizzou doesn't lose. It's all so simple when you break it down scientifically!

Summary

I really am disappointed that this one's not on television. I'm not sure how far Hot Tub Griffin III can take Baylor over his remaining 3.5 years, but there's no doubting the fact that he's entertaining as all hell. I'd love to get the chance to see how well he actually plays the position of quarterback, but I guess I'll have to wait until Monday or Tuesday to see that. And either way, Baylor just does not have the horses on either side of the ball yet. Brad Smith at least had Justin Gage and James Kinney his first year.

Tuesday's projections said 32-22 Missouri. My Roundtable prediction was 48-17 Missouri. How about we just average that? New pick: 40-20 Missouri.

Actually, no. Scratch that. The more I think about this, the more I'm allowing Baylor 14 points via outstanding play from Hot Tub Griffin III, and no more. Beyond that, in games against teams not named Oklahoma State or Texas, Mizzou is averaging 54.2 points per game. Baylor's defense is much closer to that of Illinois, Nevada, SEMO, Buffalo, Nebraska and Colorado than that of OSU and Texas. So I'm taking 7 points away from Baylor and adding it to Mizzou's ledger. 47-13 Missouri. That's science at its best right there.

Poll

So...what IS Baylor's ceiling with Hot Tub Griffin III at QB?

5-7

10 votes

6-6 (Texas Bowl!)

18 votes

7-5 (Insight Bowl!)

20 votes

8-4 (SHREVEPORT!!!)

19 votes

9-3 (Alamo Bowl!!)

5 votes

10-2 (Cotton Bowl??)

2 votes

Big 12 South Champion

4 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Justin Akers

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

2008

Coaching

Offense

Quarterback

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Missouri

Opp.

Baylor

Opp.

Missouri

Opp.

Baylor

Opp.

So...what IS Baylor's ceiling with Hot Tub Griffin III at QB?

5-7

6-6 (Texas Bowl!)

7-5 (Insight Bowl!)

8-4 (SHREVEPORT!!!)

9-3 (Alamo Bowl!!)

10-2 (Cotton Bowl??)

Big 12 South Champion