SB Nation - Trey Bryant

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:15:23 -0000

As we enter the second game of what Gary Pinkel is calling Mizzou's second season, let's take a look at where Art Briles' Baylor Bears present a threat, and where they've been hurt worst by the loss of Robert Griffin to a season-ending knee injury.

It was supposed to be different this year. Thanks to Hot Tub Griffin III, Baylor was going to threaten for a bowl game. They were actually exciting to watch for once, and Hot Tub was Rock M Nation's unanimous favorite non-Mizzou player.

Okay, you twisted my arm...one last time this season...

One last moment of silence, please. The knee injury that robbed Baylor (and us) of nine games of Hot Tub greatness* has left Baylor lifeless on offense, and despite an increase in overall team speed on offense and a relatively salty defense, the Bears sit at 3-5, 0-4 in the Big 12. Their best chance at a Big 12 win--a trip to Iowa State--ended with an easy, 14-point loss. We have all died a little inside without Hot Tub in our lives...and Baylor has died on the outside.

* Just for effect, I should once again point out that Griffin PLAYED THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN STATE GAME (well, all of the game that the first-string played) with a torn ACL suffered on the first possession, attempted three rushes, and went 16-for-19 passing with 226 yards and three touchdowns. With a torn ACL. God I love that guy.

Alright, now that we're past that, it's time to look at the team Baylor does have, and the amount of threat that they represent for Mizzou at 1pm on Faurot Field.

Offense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

We're going to start with Baylor's overall "+" ranking, presented as we've presented data for every opponent, but this comes with a rather obvious disclaimer: Baylor's last five games without Griffin have shown a different type of team than the one that made up a chunk of these ratings. We'll take a look at Baylor, pre- and post-Griffin injury, after the initial spew of data.

Baylor Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	BU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.7 (40)	111.7 (35)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	104.7 (53)	104.8 (45)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	129.7 (29)	122.4 (33)

Rushing S&P+	133.2 (5)	102.7 (63)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (73)	118.3 (30)

Standard Downs S&P+	114.6 (33)	112.5 (35)
Passing Downs S&P+	123.6 (35)	115.0 (36)

Red Zone S&P+	128.6 (22)	104.4 (61)

Q1 S&P+	136.2 (15)	95.5 (77)
Q2 S&P+	106.0 (63)	135.8 (12)
Q3 S&P+	124.5 (26)	112.2 (41)
Q4 S&P+	105.4 (55)	115.8 (34)

1st Down S&P+	122.2 (20)	108.0 (49)
2nd Down S&P+	127.0 (22)	112.3 (41)
3rd Down S&P+	101.1 (74)	113.8 (38)

Line Yards+	105.9 (52)	101.6 (61)
Close Sack Rate+	95.7 (73)	93.3 (72)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	106.7 (57) / 108.3 (56)	101.9 (57) / 123.0 (37)

Analysis after the jump.

Now, let's look at the Baylor offense with and without Hot Tub III.

Baylor Offense: With & Without Griffin
Category	With Griffin	W/out Griffin
Close S&P+	120.3	89.1
Close SR+	111.1	92.2
Close PPP+	129.5	84.1

Rushing S&P+	169.5	74.0
Passing S&P+	89.0	94.3

Standard Downs S&P+	132.3	82.0
Passing Downs S&P+	79.8	113.4

Red Zone S&P+	150.7	102.8

Q1 S&P+	169.9	98.6
Q2 S&P+	77.1	96.4
Q3 S&P+	183.6	80.7
Q4 S&P+	87.6	96.7

First, it is worth noting that BU's actually a better passing team with Florence than with Griffin. That's not the biggest shocker in the world, but it does show that Florence is at least solid. And he's got a pretty deep WR corps (deep in that the #2 guy is about equal to the #6 guy) to work with, plus a nice, offensive-minded head coach. Also, for whatever reason, they're better in both Q2 and Q4 with Florence than they were with Griffin. You figure that one out, as I have no idea; of course, they are infinitely worse in Q1 and Q3, so usually the game is lost by the time Q4 (or even Q2) comes about, it appears. Mizzou might do Baylor some favors, as they are usually not particularly great in Q1, but it appears that Q3 is death for the Bears (strange, considering BU outscored Nebraska 10-0 in Q3 last week).

When Baylor Has the Ball...
Baylor Rushing	Advantage: Missouri
Baylor Passing	Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Baylor:	Q1
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2-Q4

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. Where applicable, I'll look at post-Griffin numbers.

Close Success Rate+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+ (though Passing Downs is close)
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st Down, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for Baylor...

Q1 S&P+
2nd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Without Griffin, Baylor has found the going a lot rougher in terms of utilizing their other weapons--WR Kendall Wright, RB Jay Finley, etc. They still have at least a decent offensive line, but that line will need to execute against Missouri's rapidly improving defensive line, and they will need to generate some early points, as Missouri assumes more and more of an advantage as the game wears on. And if Baylor gets handed any easy opportunities through turnovers or special teams, they simply must convert those opportunities into touchdowns.

Quarterback

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Nick Florence: 84-for-147 passing (57.1%), 942 yards (6.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT

So...any great nicknames for Nick Florence yet? He needs you now more than ever. Really, Florence hasn't been too bad passing the ball. He hasn't been great, but considering two of his four Big 12 starts have come against Oklahoma and Nebraska, two of the three best defenses in the conference (this week, they play the fourth-best, followed by the overall best next week against Texas), his numbers haven't been too bad. He is indeed just a redshirt freshman, and he was thrown into a no-win situation; granted he indeed has no wins, but he could be a lot worse. Let's just say that he's absolutely no worse than Blizzle Szyzzle, Blake Szymanski. No offense intended, Mr. Blizzle.

Running Back

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

Jay Finley: 42 carries, 261 yards (6.2 per carry), 2 TD; 4 receptions, 24 yards (6.0 per catch)
Jarred Salubi: 42 carries, 249 yards (5.9 per carry), 2 TD; 17 receptions, 134 yards (7.9 per catch)
Terrance Ganaway: 34 carries, 134 yards (3.9 per carry), 3 TD; 1 reception, 13 yards

Between Jay Finley and Jarred Salubi, Baylor has managed a pretty decent first-string RB this year. Unfortunately, most of their success came early in the season. Finley had 121 yards on eight carries against UConn, while Salubi had 131 in seven carries against Northwestern State. Since Griffin's injury, Finley has managed 49 yards in just 20 carries (2.5 per carry) while recovering from a sprained ankle and pulled quad, while Salubi has only been slightly better at 118 yards in 35 carries (3.4 per carry). Injuries haven't helped here, but the injury that hurt most of all was obviously Griffin's. Without the dual threat QB, teams are able to focus a lot more on the RBs.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Joining [Kendall] Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

WR Kendall Wright: 40 catches, 448 yards (11.2 per catch), 2 TD; 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3 per carry), 1 TD
WR David Gettis: 31 catches, 426 yards (13.7 per catch), 3 TD
WR Ernest Smith: 26 catches, 280 yards (10.8 per catch); 1 carry, 5 yards
WR Lanear Sampson: 15 catches, 130 yards (8.7 per catch), 1 TD

TE Justin Akers: 14 catches, 124 yards (8.9 per catch), 1 TD
TE Brad Taylor: 8 catches, 90 yards (11.2 per catch)

In Baylor's first game post-Griffin, Kendall Wright had 125 yards in nine catches against Kent State, suggesting there was life even with a dry hot tub. However, in the past four games he has managed only 16 catches for 134 yards and has scored zero touchdowns (of course, Baylor as a whole has scored only four, so that's not saying a lot). Justin Akers (against OSU) and David Gettis (against Nebraska) have stepped up recently, but until more than one weapon shows up for a given game, Baylor's whole aerial attack is grounded. Wow, I did not intend that weak pun there. C'est la vie.

Offensive Line

Now [Jason] Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

Looking at Baylor's Line Yardage and Sack Rates, you get the distinct impression that this isn't a particularly good or bad line. In fact, with rankings around 60th in all categories, you could say the line is actually perfectly average. Unfortunately for Baylor, Mizzou's defensive line has been improving significantly in conference play and is quite likely well above average right now, especially with Aldon Smith surging and a much less mobile quarterback looking for open receivers. This matchup has gone from a draw to a distinct Mizzou advantage in recent weeks.

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Defense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Baylor Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	BU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	100.0 (60)	106.2 (57)
Close Success Rate+	94.2 (84)	103.6 (58)
Close PPP+	109.0 (44)	112.8 (56)

Rushing S&P+	86.3 (98)	102.1 (67)
Passing S&P+	118.4 (29)	110.8 (51)

Standard Downs S&P+	99.5 (63)	105.0 (60)
Passing Downs S&P+	109.1 (47)	109.7 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	122.7 (32)	70.7 (114)

Q1 S&P+	89.0 (86)	117.9 (50)
Q2 S&P+	102.5 (63)	100.2 (73)
Q3 S&P+	109.8 (45)	111.9 (52)
Q4 S&P+	101.1 (61)	102.4 (65)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (58)	102.6 (66)
2nd Down S&P+	95.2 (75)	106.6 (64)
3rd Down S&P+	109.1 (50)	118.9 (38)

Line Yards+	87.1 (101)	101.3 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	89.9 (78)	173.9 (16)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	79.1 (93) / 115.6 (45)	243.4 (8) / 124.7 (41)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage(ish): Baylor
Best Time for Baylor:	Q2-Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q1, Q4

With Gabbert looking much, much healthier against Colorado, we can at least tentatively put an end to the "injured Gabbert" period. So, since we did the "pre-and-post" treatment for Baylor, should we do the same for Mizzou? We know that Mizzou's offensive stats plummeted with Gabbert's ankle sprain, but we also know that the defenses Mizzou faced at that time were much better. Luckily, we have "+" numbers to account for the difference in competition level! So here are the numbers for when Blaine Gabbert had one and two healthy ankles (the "one healthy ankle" stats are for the last three quarters of the Nebraska game and all of the Texas and OSU games):

Missouri Offense: Healthy vs Injured Gabbert
Category	Healthy #11	Injured #11
Close S&P+	107.1	94.3
Close SR+	101.2	95.3
Close PPP+	114.1	93.1

Rushing S&P+	85.4	117.1
Passing S&P+	119.3	81.6

Standard Downs S&P+	103.4	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	90.9	98.2

Red Zone S&P+	70.6	108.4

Q1 S&P+	93.7	116.3
Q2 S&P+	91.3	107.2
Q3 S&P+	108.2	31.5
Q4 S&P+	101.7	81.4

Mizzou was significantly better at both rushing and red zone offense when Gabbert was hurt, but I think there is a bit of noise in the statistics there. Mizzou got a lot of credit for the touchdown they scored on their lone red zone trip against Texas, and that balanced out their craptastic execution against OSU. Either way, that's a damn small sample size. Meanwhile, the rushing success didn't seem to have anything to do with Gabbert limping around--it was seemingly more a result of Missouri's offensive line simply blocking better (and, potentially, their running backs running better).

Either way, we're definitely working with a small sample size here, but there are some conclusions that can be reached: 1) while Missouri's second-half execution against Colorado left something (okay, a lot) to be desired, they are still a much, much better second-half team with a healthy Gabbert. It's almost as if Missouri was able to disguise Gabbert's injury with good game-planning, but by the second half, they were out of tricks. Now, with Gabbert throwing more accurate passes and pulling down a couple of keepers, Missouri has a lot more options. Also, and this is some incredible statistical analysis here, 2) Missouri is a much better passing team when their quarterback can actually hit his targets.

With that in mind, let's look at Missouri's "healthy Gabbert" advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+
Sack Rates+

Baylor's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2 S&P+

With a healthy Gabbert, the passing game seems to be a draw, as do Q3 and Q4 S&P+ and 1st Down S&P+.

Defensive Line

Beyond [Penn State transfer Phil] Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

DE/DT Jason Lamb: 21.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 2 Blocked Kicks
DT Trey Bryant: 15.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 3 QBH
DE Zac Scotton: 12.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Phil Taylor: 11.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 QBH, 2 Blocked Kicks
DE Tracy Robertson: 10.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 3 QBH

So...has vaunted transfer Phil Taylor actually made a difference? Baylor's pass defense has actually been pretty solid, but their rushing defense has been horrible. If Mizzou's offensive line was able to open up holes for Derrick Washington and company and protect Blaine Gabbert from Colorado pass rushers, there's nothing saying they won't be able to do the same (and better) against Baylor. Maybe Taylor really is a difference-maker, but the rest of the line has been just terrible? Jason Lamb, who has been playing at Baylor since Grant Teaff was coach, has put up some decent numbers--as good as those of Mizzou's Jaron Baston and Dominique Hamilton--but he's pretty much it. If he's not making a nice play, then Baylor's relying on the LBs.

Linebackers

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Joe Pawelek: 52.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 2 PBU
Antonio Jones: 47.0 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
Antonio Johnson: 41.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU
Chris Francis: 21.0 tackles
Elliot Coffey: 20.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Earl Patin: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

I really was pretty impressed with Joe Pawelek last year, but while he's been rock solid this year, it doesn't seem like he's been quite the playmaker I was expecting. He's still good, though, and the Two Antonios have combined with Pawelek to form what is certainly a decent unit. As I put it in the offseason, Baylor has struggled in certain areas (i.e. run defense), but they're not the reason why. And they're fast enough to do decent things in pass coverage.

Secondary

Jordan Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

S Jordan Lake: 48.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF
S Jeremy Williams: 25.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
CB Clifton Odom: 22.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 4 PBU
S Byron Landor: 22.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBU
CB Tim Atchison: 21.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 PBU
CB Chance Casey: 18.5 tackles, 2 INT, 1 QBH, 4 PBU
S Mike Hicks: 12.5 tackles

If Pawelek hasn't been quite what I thought this year, Jordan Lake REALLY hasn't been what I thought. He was a pretty strong, disruptive player in 2008; this year, he's just a tackler. One forced fumble, one tackle for loss, and no interceptions? Huh. In all, though, Baylor's pass defense really has been pretty decent this year; I mean, ranking 47th isn't amazing by any means, but with a sieve for a run defense, the secondary has been the least of their problems. Can you tell I haven't at all been impressed with their defensive line?

Special Teams

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Punt Returns Rank: 22nd (Krys Buerck: 12 Returns, 7.5 Avg)
Net Punting Rank: 89th (Derek Epperson: 45.2 Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 39th (Terrance Williams: 13 Returns, 26.0 Avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 44th

Field Goals: 4-for-8 (Long: 41) (113th)
PATs: 17-for-18

If the special teams play involves a Baylor player with the ball in his hands, running upfield, then Baylor's special teams unit is pretty solid. If it involves somebody in a Baylor uniform kicking...not so much. Derek Epperson ranks in the nation's top 20 in overall punt average, but their net average has been hurt by two blocked punts, and they're giving up almost 17 yards per return (with one touchdown). Ouch. And Ben Parks has been far from great as place-kicker. But hey, Krys Buerck and Terrance Williams are bright spots. That's something.

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Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over. With Blaine Gabbert's arm, I love the idea of going deep quite a few times, but with the advantages Missouri will have in other regards, Missouri really just needs to avoid Passing Downs disaster, and they should be alright. It's rare one of my keys is "stay relatively conservative and don't do anything stupid," but that does appear to be the case here. I like to surprise myself sometimes.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. (SPREAD DOESN'T WORK NEED FULLBACK RAWR!!!!! ET CETERA. Just thought I'd get that out of the way so that doesn't come up and I don't have to point out that Missouri's red zone offense has been just fine in the spread the last few years.) Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

Prediction

Clearly this is Missouri's game to lose. It is Baylor at home, after all. However, even without Robert Griffin, this Baylor team has more weapons and team speed than previous Bears iterations, and if Missouri lets them hang around, loses the turnover battle, gets some bad bounces, allows a big play or two, etc., Baylor can absolutely win this game. As long as Missouri plays average or better, they should move to 6-3 and bowl eligibility. The numbers say Mizzou by 16.5, so we'll say Mizzou 30, Baylor 13. Run the ball well, rip off a big play or two, don't commit any awful turnovers, and let Mizzou's defensive weapons--Sean Weatherspoon, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, etc.--make the plays they can make.

Crossfire Q&A: Baylor

RPT — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 00:25:04 -0000

This week, Gary of BaylorFans.com -- one of the best places to find the state of Baylor followers online -- joins us to discuss how Baylor fans are approaching the 2009 season.

RMN: First of all, Baylor seems to have heightened expectations nationally. How has that translated for the fan base, and what do Baylor fans expect in 2009?

Gary: The increased coverage of the Baylor Bears is a direct result of a much more competitive season produced by Coach Art Briles and his players in the fall of 2008. The Bears won only four games (in very convincing fashion), but they were competitive and even had a chance to win four other games during this past season (UConn, Nebraska, Missouri, and Texas Tech). Many of the publications and national televised media have seized upon the Baylor Bears as the trendy pick to be the surprise team in 2009, based upon the previous performances of returning players like Robert Griffin (QB), Kendall Wright (WR), Joe Pawelek (LB), and Jordan Lake (FS).

The Baylor fan base is very encouraged by the apparent changes in attitude and performance of the football program and the increase in season ticket sales, the road trip planning for away games, the surge in tailgating plans for home games, and the non-stop chatter on the message boards of baylorfans.com. There is a lot of cautious optimism among the Baylor faithful regarding the coming football season.

While Baylor fans have been conditioned to expect the worst over the last 15 years of play, the Baylor faithful appear to be hoping for a return to a bowl berth in 2009. Most of the chatter on the Baylorfans.com web-site has indicated that the hope is for a 6-6 season and a bowl bid. While there are some fans that still expect to be disappointed (primarily due to injury possibilities that could derail this resurgence - the Bears still have depth issues), most of the chatter among the Baylor faithful indicates the expectation of a continuing upward trend in the performance of the Baylor football team.

RMN: Robert Griffin is certainly feeling the love this summer. After a great, but relatively sheltered (at least through the air) freshman season, what should people expect from Griffin in 2009?

Gary: Obviously, Robert Griffin had a phenomenal freshman season. Griffin carried the ball 173 times for 1,118 yards (a net of 843 yards after subtracting the sacks) and passed for an unbelievable efficiency of 142.00 by completing 160 out of 267 throws for 15 touchdowns with only 3 interceptions. Coach Briles kept the passing offense close to the vest in Griffin's inaugural campaign by using a variety of bubble and slip screens interspersed with some play-action passes and roll outs. Because he was a freshman, Griffin was, understandably, asked to do very little straight dropback plays where he might have to read the entire field.

Coach Briles is on record saying that it is critical to the offensive development of the team that Griffin be able to develop his passing game. Much of the spring work was focused on improving the ability of the offense (and Griffin) to execute the dropback passing game that can work in all ranges of the field (short, intermediate, and deep). In addition, the Bears developed a few exciting wrinkles to add to their screen game.

There is no doubt that Griffin (and the rest of the offense) demonstrated solid improvement in the passing game. The question is whether that improvement is enough to make it possible for the Bears to take the pressure off of Griffin's running to move the Bear offense. Griffin still has a tendency have trouble letting go of the ball. While judicious distribution of the football made it possible for him to limit his interception rate, one of the next steps in his development will be to begin making the throws on time to receivers that are closely covered. Progress was made in this effort this spring, but the proof will be known during the heat of battle this fall.

More questions after the jump!

RMN: Reading a lot of Baylor previews, they make it sound like it’s a one man show for Baylor’s offense. Seemingly under the radar, how much will Jay Finley factor into Baylor’s success? Also, will Kendall Wright, Lanear Sampson, or David Gettis emerge as legitimate weapons for Griffin?

Gary: Baylor seems to be a one-man show because of the fact that they flew under the radar for most of the 2008 season. It was not until the end of the season, when people were able to look back at what really was done by those guys that Baylor began to get noticed. As a result, most of the coverage has centered upon Robert Griffin.

It would be a mistake to see Baylor as a one-man team. Jay Finley is a surprising talent at running back. Even though he gained 895 yards on 149 carries, Finley still seems to be relatively unnoticed by the media. Coach Briles has indicated that another critical aspect of the offensive development for the Bears in 2009 is the development of a running game from sources other than Robert Griffin. Therefore, Finley appears to be set to become an even more significant cog in the Baylor arsenal.

Finley has a deceptive running style with decent speed. Finley is able to create running space out of the smallest of cracks in the defense. He has a surprising ability to "get small in the hole" and burst into daylight. For those defenses that decide to key on Robert Griffin on the "read zone" play, Finley will be able to slither through to make them pay in 2009. He will be supported by the red-shirt freshman from Waco, Jay Salubi and the transfer from the University of Houston, Terrance Ganaway (6', 245).

The Bears will have an improved and very athletic receiving corps for the fall of 2009. Returning starter Kendall Wright is the "bell cow" of that group. Wright caught 50 passes for 649 yards in his freshman season. In addition, much of the action comes after the catch for Wright. He is a dangerous player in the open field. Big XII coaches already know that this young man is a major league threat. Other returning starters David Gettis and Mikail Baker will be severely pushed by red-shirt freshmen Terrence Williams and Lanear Sampson and in-coming freshmen Darius Jones and Josh Gordon. Williams, especially, had a great spring and will see significant playing time in 2009.

One important position change made by the offensive staff was moving sure-handed Ernest Smith (6'3", 200) from outside receiver to inside receiver. In the spring, Smith demonstrated solid ability to find seams and openings in the defensive coverage and will serve as a perfect complement to Kendall Wright on the other side.

RMN: Joe Pawelek and Jordan Lake have gotten much deserved love entering 2009, but what can be expected from the defensive unit as a whole? Are there any perceived deficiencies for which Lake and Pawelek will have compensate?

Gary: At the beginning of last season, the Bear defense was severely under-manned. The coaches were still trying to find individual player's best positions and the best fit for the team. Due to that fact, it appeared that Coach Brian Norwood, the Bear's defensive coordinator, chose to play a "bend, but don't break" style that made it possible for opposing offenses to control the ball. The coverage was very soft and this allowed opposing quarterbacks to tally up impressive totals against the Baylor secondary.

By the end of the season and after some position shifting had occurred, the Baylor defensive performance was much improved. The pass coverage had gotten tighter and the Bears were getting more turnovers than they had early in the season. As a result, most people feel that the Bear's defense, while maybe not a juggernaut, will be much improved this season.

One reason for the anticipated improvement is the addition of Penn State transfer Phil Taylor in the defensive line. Taylor will be playing the strongside defensive tackle (3 technique). At 6'4" and 355 pounds, Taylor is surprisingly agile. The Baylor coaches feel that teams that choose not to double team him will pay a big price. The depth at defensive tackle is much improved. Returning starter Trey Bryant will be supported by Nick Jean-Baptiste, Kaeron Johnson, and Jason Lamb (who is projected to move from his starting position at defensive end into the interior d-line).

The biggest question mark for the Bears defensively, is at defensive end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson appear to have won the starting jobs, with Jameon Hardeman being a significant backup on passing situations. While there is some raw depth at DE, this summer needs to be a time of real growth for this position at Baylor.

The entire linebacking corps is returning from 2008 and this group is considered by many to be one of the best (if not the best) linebacking groups in the Big XII. Antonio Johnson (strongside linebacker) is especially productive on the blitz. The top six LBs, are terrific.

The area that made the most improvement in the 2008 season (and still needs a lot of improvement) is the secondary. At the mid-point of the season, Coach Norwood appeared to settle in on the group cornerback group consisting of Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Trentson Hill. This group of athletic corners showed significant improvement by the end of the season, which leads the Baylor faithful hoping that the defense can improve upon a very poor 3rd down conversion percentage in 2008.

While Jordan Lake is a stud at free safety and an absolute hitting machine, the strong safety position still is a position where improvement is necessary. Returning starter Jeremy Williams will be pushed by Jeremy Sanders (moving over to defense from quarterback/running back in 2008) and juco transfer Byron Landor. If this group can improve its ability to stop their opponents on third down, continue to develop turnovers like they appeared to be able to do from mid-season on, and continue to limit the big-plays, then it will result in increased time for the explosive offense to do some major damage.

RMN: After Mizzou’s narrow escape in Waco and the Tigers’ sheer attrition in the offseason, how do you think Baylor matches up with Missouri, and what kind of chances are Baylor fans giving the Bears to win in Columbia?

Gary: The game in Waco was one of the most exciting games Baylor played last fall. To this Baylor fan, after spotting the Tigers a couple of touchdowns, it appeared that the Bears out-played the Tigers for much of the game, but in the end, the Tigers made the plays when it counted and pulled out the victory on the road.
The Missouri Tigers have lost a lot of terrific players that were key to their success over the last few years. One thing that many forget, though, is that because of that success, the Tigers have been able to recruit quality talent into Columbia. That talent is ready, and probably able, to replace the graduated stars of last year.

Blaine Gabbert, Derrick Washington, Wes Kemp, Danario Alexander, Jared Perry, and Andrew Jones will be primed and ready to execute the Tiger spread offense by the beginning of November. It will be interesting to see what will be the impact of new DC, Dave Steckel.

If this game were played in Waco or on a neutral field, the Bears might be favored . But, the Tigers don't lose many games in Columbia and for the Bears to be able to upset them on November 7th, it would take a magnificent effort by the green and gold.

RMN: Finish the following statements:

Baylor will win if: The Bears must control the ball against the Tigers. If the Bears are able to run more offensive plays than the Tigers run, the Bears win.

Missouri will win if: The young skill position players for the Tigers develop quickly. If the Tiger offense is able to control the ball, the home field advantage the Tigers enjoy will probably be too much for the Bears to overcome.

RMN: Give us your non-binding, WAY too early prediction for the Baylor/Missouri game.

Gary: I might be drinking the "green kool-aid" here, but I see the Bears being able to upset the Tigers in another very tight game – 38-34.

Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:00:11 -0000

Yesterday we took an in-depth (as always) look at the Baylor offense. While Robert Griffin should continue to develop, it's hard to see the Bears being too much more potent with what appears to be a pretty iffy line up front and few potential new difference-makers. On the defensive side of the ball, however, things get really interesting. Art Briles was never known as much of a defense guy at Houston, but he (or more accurately, Defensive Coordinator Brian Norwood) had some toys to play with on that side of the ball in 2009. If the baseball truism about the importance of up-the-middle defense (catcher, 2B/SS, CF) is similar for football (DT, MLB, S), then Baylor could have a pretty dangerous defense in 2009.

Okay, not really dangerous, but this unit could improve a pretty decent amount.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 102.1 (#58)
Success Rate+: 97.4 (#68)
PPP+: 108.1 (#49)

Standard Downs S&P+: 107.0 (#42)
Passing Downs S&P+: 99.8 (#65)

Redzone S&P+: 108.6 (#41)

Q1 S&P+: 98.8 (#68)
Q2 S&P+: 100.7 (#63)
Q3 S&P+: 119.6 (#20)
Q4 S&P+: 100.6 (#56)

1st Down S&P+: 111.9 (#26)
2nd Down S&P+: 103.6 (#49)
3rd Down S&P+: 98.5 (#64)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 100.4 (#65)
Rushing SR+: 94.1 (#81)
Rushing PPP+: 110.2 (#45)

Standard Downs: 103.8 (#48)
Passing Downs: 108.3 (#51)

Redzone: 109.4 (#40)

Line Yards+: 92.3 (#90)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 102.4 (#56)
Passing SR+: 100.7 (#54)
Passing PPP+: 104.4 (#53)

Standard Downs: 109.9 (#28)
Passing Downs: 97.1 (#70)

Redzone: 110.6 (#32)

Sack Rate+: 84.0 (#81)

With tackling machines Joe Pawelek and Jordan Lake on the case, Baylor was able to pretty effectively limit opposing offenses' explosiveness (i.e. PPP+), especially as it pertained to the running game. However, the overall lack of talent on the field limited what Baylor was able to do in terms of efficiency (Success Rate+). Aside from one giant exception at defensive tackle, the personnel doesn't change much. Six starters among the back seven return, which is either good or bad, depending on how you look at it.

Other thoughts:

This defense showed one of the hallmarks of a hard-working, less-talented unit: good first down/Standard Downs numbers and horrendous third down/Passing Downs numbers.
While the BU offense peaked by far in the first half, the defense was pretty consistently mediocre aside from apparently making pretty nice second-half adjustments--they ranked between 56th and 68th in Q1, Q2, and Q4, while jumping up to 20th in Q3.
You have to wonder what BU could have done without an atrocious D-line.

Defensive Line

All eyes are on this man. And I mean, MAN.

2008 Unit Ranking: #91 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Phil Taylor (6'4, 355, Jr.)
DT Trey Bryant (6'2, 310, Sr.)
DE Zac Scotton (6'7, 260, So.)
DE Tracy Robertson (6'4, 260, So.)
DT Jason Lamb (6'5, 270, Sr.)
DT Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (6'1, 300, So.)
DE Jameon Hardeman (6'1, 230, Jr.)
DE Fred Plesius (6'1, 260, RSFr.)

Baylor loses three starters from the aforementioned atrocious line, and I don't think Bear fans are losing too much sleep over that. Two main reasons for that: 1) they weren't very good, and 2) OHMYGOD WHO IS THAT GIANT AT DEFENSIVE TACKLE??

That would be Phil Taylor, a former four-star recruit from suburban DC (Clinton, MD), had 20 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 6.5 TFLs, and 2 fumble recoveries for the Nittany Lions in 2007 before getting into an on-campus fight, getting one year of probation, and getting kicked off the team. He transferred to Baylor because new BU Defensive Coordinator Brian Norwood had originally recruited him to PSU when he was Secondary Coach in Happy Valley. He was recently voted the Big 12's Preseason Newcomer of the Year (what a silly award this is, when you think about it), and expectations are high, to say the least. If Taylor keeps his nose clean and thrives, then suddenly Baylor has all-conference talent at DT, LB, and safety. If not, if he's a bust, then this unit could very well be worse than it was last year.

Beyond Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

Basically, this unit will go as far as Taylor takes them. If he's a truly dominant force, then the rest of the line starts to look pretty good. If he's a bust, then this unit will rank about 80th at best this year.

Linebackers

Okay, you've won me over, Pawelek.

2008 Unit Ranking: #51 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Joe Pawelek (6'2, 240, Sr.)
Antonio Johnson (6'0, 210, Jr.)
Antonio Jones (6'2, 225, Sr.)
Earl Patin (6'2, 225, Jr.)
Chris Francis (6'0, 235, Jr.)
Elliot Coffey (6'0, 220, So.)

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Secondary

I can't decide if Jordan Lake is actually good, or if my view is clouded by the fact that he was in Chase Daniel's head all game long last year.

2008 Unit Ranking: #57 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Jordan Lake (6'1, 210, Sr.)
CB Antareis Bryan (6'2, 190, Jr.)
CB Tim Atchison (6'1, 205, Jr.)
S Jeremy Williams (5'11, 205, Sr.)
S Jeremy Sanders (6'2, 210, Sr.)
CB Clifton Odom (5'11, 195, Jr.)
S T.J. Scranton (5'11, 190, Sr.)
CB Trentson Hill (6'0, 185, So.)

Late in the Baylor-Missouri game, Jordan Lake read Chase Daniel perfectly and almost picked off a pass that, according to the radio announcers, he would have easily taken to the house. If that happens, Baylor potentially beats Missouri. Think of how that would have changed the 2008 season--Mizzou doesn't win the North (unless the kick-in-the-balls from the Baylor loss spurred them on to beating KU), and Baylor gets to five wins. You could conceivably say that with the confidence from a big win over Missouri, they may not have completely fallen apart down the stretch in Lubbock and beaten Tech too. But alas, Lake dropped the ball, Jeff Wolfert kicked the game-winning field goal, and 2008 unfolded as we remember it. While he didn't make as many plays as Pawelek, Lake proved himself as a hard-hitter and all-around solid safety, and the secondary as a whole was...well, downright decent. Not great, not even very good, but decent. And that was a step up from recent years. The unit should improve in 2009, as it returns most of its decent play-makers from 2008.

Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

Special Teams

My nominee for punt returner. And I'm only half-kidding. Okay, two-thirds kidding.

2008 Rankings: #7 Net Punting, #118 Punt Returns, #29 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Ben Parks (6'2, 205, So.) - 39-for-44 PAT, 6-for-9 FG (long: 42)
P Derek Epperson (6'3, 240, Jr.) - 38.8 Net
KR Mikail Baker (6'0, 205, Sr.) - 25.3 Avg, 1 TD
PR Krys Buerck (5'11, 180, Jr.)

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Summary

It's funny--when I'm writing about Baylor, I type out very so-so, mediocre phrases ("decent experience at tackle," "not quite sure if he's an all-conference talent," "didn't put up amazing numbers by any means," "not great, not even very good, but decent," "could be a good complement") in an intrigued, encouraging manner. I'm not going to pretend that, even with Phil Taylor thriving, Baylor will have a dominant, potentially Top-Four-in-conference defense. But what they could have is a play-making one, a bend-but-don't-break-and-hope-somebody-makes-a-sack-or-INT defense not unlike what Mizzou had in 1998, when they almost literally scored a defensive touchdown in every game. If they can make enough big plays to counteract what will likely be pretty high yardage and point totals, the Hot Tub Griffin III-led offense should do well enough to keep Baylor in most games. And if Griffin begins to thrive in the clutch (something he very much did not do in 2008 as a true freshman), then Baylor becomes a very viable bowl team.

Without giving away any results, Friday's BTBS projections will show that Baylor has eight games projected within eight points. Clearly stat projections aren't going to take "the defense could potentially make big plays and score some points of their own" into account, but clearly they're going to have some opportunities in 2009. Unfortunately for Baylor, a) I think their offense is still a year away from being able to consistently take advantage of those opportunities, and b) a year from now, the BU defense will be without Pawelek, Lake, Williams, Jones, and potential Taylor, if he lives up to the hype. As I mentioned yesterday, there's no more fun non-Mizzou player to root for than Hot Tub Griffin III, but while I'm almost positive Baylor will sneak into a bowl game before he leaves Waco, I don't think it will be in 2009. Might not be in 2010 either, but we'll see.

---

Projections on Friday.

The Fog of '09 - South Defenses

Bill C. — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 15:00:06 -0000

Defensive Lines

Oklahoma (DEs Auston English & Jeremy Beal, DTs Gerald McCoy & DeMarcus Granger)
Texas Tech (DTs Colby Whitlock & Richard Jones, DEs Brandon Williams & McKinner Dixon)
Oklahoma State (DEs Ugo Chinasa, Derek Burton)
Texas (DT Lamarr Houston, DEs Sam Acho & Eddie Jones)
Baylor (DT Trey Bryant, DE Jason Lamb)
Texas A&M (DTs Lucas Patterson & Tony Jerod-Eddie)

That's right, all four of OU's DL starters (plus DT Adrian Taylor) return. Granted, any of them could choose to go pro, but a) I doubt it, and b) if so I'd still probably have OU's line #1.

Linebackers

Oklahoma (Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box)
Texas (Sergio Kindle--for now, Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton)
Oklahoma State (Orie Lemon, Patrick Lavine, Andre Sexton)
Texas Tech (Brian Duncan, Marlon Williams, Bront Bird)
Baylor (Joe Pawelek, Antonio Jones, Antonio Johnson)
Texas A&M (Von Miller, Anthony Lewis, Garrick Williams)

Seriously, OU is going to have BY FAR the best front seven in the conference. Their offense might struggle from time to time, but they'll still be in the South hunt because of a stud defense. Beyond OU, there's pretty much a logjam. If Sergio Kindle decides to go pro, then UT's LBs possibly fall to about #4 or #5 because OSU, Tech and Baylor all return pretty competent units almost intact.

Defensive Backs

Texas (CBs Chykie Brown & Deon Beasley, Ss Earl Thomas & Blake Gideon)
Oklahoma (CBs Dominique Franks, Brian Jackson)
Baylor (S Jordan Lake, CB Antareis Bryan)
Texas Tech (CBs Jamar Wall & Brent Nickerson)
Texas A&M (CB Jordan Pugh, S Jordan Peterson)
Oklahoma State (CB Perrish Cox, ...?)

Texas aside, everybody's secondary takes a step backwards. The Longhorn secondary, however, will be STOUT.

South Defenses, 2009

Oklahoma (17)
Texas (14)
Texas Tech (11)
Oklahoma State (9)
Baylor (8)
Texas A&M (4)

I'm starting to get the indication that Mike Sherman's second year at ATM won't be much better than his first. ATM is young, and they'll have some talent, but at some point they fell a step (or more) behind everybody else in the South.

Special Teams

Oklahoma State (K Dan Bailey, PR Dez Bryant, KR Perrish Cox)
Oklahoma (PR Ryan Broyles, KR DeMarco Murray, K Jimmy Stevens)
Texas (K Hunter Lawrence, P Justin Tucker, KR Malcolm Williams)
Texas Tech (K Donnie Carona, P Jonathan LaCour, KR Edward Britton)
Baylor (KR Mikail Baker, K Ben Parks, P Derek Epperson)
Texas A&M (PR Jordan Pugh, KR Cyrus Gray, ...?)

No complete unit among the group, but OSU is the closest.

Coaches

Oklahoma
Texas
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

If I rank them again in 5 minutes, I'll probably get a completely different order. I didn't say this was scientific.

2009 South Rankings

Texas (43)
Oklahoma (43)
Oklahoma State (40)
Texas Tech (29)
Baylor (19)
Texas A&M (15)

Honestly, with the status of OU's offense, this surprises me, but there OU is, right in the thick of things. So how do the schedules shake out?

-- Schedules --

Baylor

10/10 - at Oklahoma
10/17 - at Iowa State
10/24 - Oklahoma State
10/31 - Nebraska
11/7 - at Missouri
11/14 - Texas
11/21 - at Texas A&M
11/28 - Texas Tech

North schedule: @ ISU, NU, @ MU. An unfortunate slate for Baylor, really. Yeah, they can probably take out NU at home, but traveling to Ames makes that one something of a tossup (I picked ISU in Monday's North preview, and I'm already regretting that one) and traveling to Columbia gives MU an edge there. I say 1-2.

South home slate: OSU, UT, Tech. Hmm. They're going to win one of these games, but I'm not sure which one. Tech, maybe? We'll go with Tech. Two upsets here is possibly too much to ask, but it's not unthinkable. 1-2.

South road slate: @ OU, @ ATM. You know Baylor will be gunning for their first bowl since Grant Teaff next year, and with a likely 3-1 non-conference record (@ Wake Forest, UConn, NW'ern State, Kent State), the bowl bid might come down to the ATM game. They stomped ATM in Waco this year...but for now we'll go with the home team. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6.

Oklahoma

10/10 - Baylor
10/17 - vs Texas
10/24 - at Kansas
10/31 - Kansas State
11/7 - at Nebraska
11/14 - Texas A&M
11/21 - at Texas Tech
11/28 - Oklahoma State

North schedule: @ KU, KSU, @ NU. The trip to Lincoln could be iffy, as could the trip to Lawrence, but...for now I'm sticking with 3-0.

South home slate: Baylor, ATM, OSU. Clearly, getting OSU at Owen Field is big. 3-0.

South road slate: vs UT, @ Tech. Only one true South road game for OU in '09, which gives them nice opportunity to break in a new O-line and possibly a new QB with fewer setbacks. But the youth will still bite them here. I favor UT in Dallas, and the trip to Lubbock screams "setback". 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 6-2.

Oklahoma State

10/10 - at Texas A&M
10/17 - Missouri
10/24 - at Baylor
10/31 - Texas
11/7 - at Iowa State
11/14 - Texas Tech
11/21 - Colorado
11/28 - at Oklahoma

North schedule: MU, @ISU, CU. This sets up very well for OSU. The trip to Ames might be a landmine if the Jack Trice Winds play a factor...but probably not. 3-0.

South home slate: UT, Tech. BIG games here. I say they beat Tech, but...Texas? Are they ready for that? That could decide the South right there. I change my mind later, I'm sure, but I'm going to say yes...yes, they can win that game. 2-0.

South road slate: @ATM, @BU, @OU. The Baylor trip could be a major landmine, but we'll say OSU pulls it off for now. They still lose to OU, though. 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 7-1.

Texas

10/10 - Colorado
10/17 - vs Oklahoma
10/24 - at Missouri
10/31 - at Oklahoma State
11/7 - Texas Tech
11/14 - at Baylor
11/21 - Kansas
11/28 - at Texas A&M

North schedule: CU, @MU, KU. Yeah, 3-0.

South home slate: vs OU, Tech. Only one true South home game, but they'll TCB. 2-0.

South road slate: @OSU, @BU, @ATM. I said OSU would win? Guess that means 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 7-1.

Texas A&M

10/10 - Oklahoma State
10/17 - at Kansas State
10/24 - at Texas Tech
10/31 - Iowa State
11/7 - at Colorado
11/14 - at Oklahoma
11/21 - Baylor
11/28 - Texas

North schedule: @KSU, ISU, @CU. 3-0? 0-3? Anything's possible here. I'll go homefield and say 1-2.

South home slate: OSU, BU, UT. 1-2.

South road slate: @Tech, @OU. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6.

Texas Tech

10/10 - Kansas State
10/17 - at Nebraska
10/24 - Texas A&M
10/31 - Kansas
11/7 - at Texas
11/14 - at Oklahoma State
11/21 - Oklahoma
11/28 - at Baylor

North schedule: KSU, @NU, KU. 2-1.

South home slate: @UT, @OSU, @BU. Tech's been much better on the road this year than previous years, but without Harrell and Crabtree (and over half the O-line), there will be regression. I'll still have them beating BU, but that's it. 1-2.

South road slate: ATM, OU. 2-0.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 5-3.

Standings

Oklahoma State 7-1
Texas 7-1
Oklahoma 6-2
Texas Tech 5-3
Baylor 2-6
Texas A&M 2-6

Summary

I don't think I'm giving Baylor enough credit. They'll probably beat ATM or OSU or something, but who knows. Also, I'm probably giving OSU too much credit--expectations could overtake them. Honestly I'm already wanting to bump UT ahead of OSU and BU ahead of ATM, but that's just me thinking too hard.