SB Nation - Patrick Williams

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Is Bo Pelini ready for Year #5 expectations in Year #2?

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Alright, through the non-conference slate, the BTBS Projections (which had none of my own biases in them whatsoever--I actually downgraded Mizzou's initial status in the original projections) have Missouri heading into conference play at 4-0, albeit with tight victories over Illinois and Nevada. As they head into their first weeknight ESPN home game since 1992's 6-0 loss to Colorado, Mizzou could either be primed for another North title run or ready for a stiff reality check to head into town. Or, you know, they could be 2-2 and desperate. We'll see. First up in conference, for the third straight year, are the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I'm bringing my A-game for this one (as I'm sure Missouri will too)--time to go waaaaaaaaaaaay beyond the box score.

With 1:43 left in the Colorado-Nebraska game, Alex Henery booted a beyond-clutch 57-yard field goal to give Nebraska a 33-31 lead. Forty-five seconds later, Ndamukong Suh intercepted a Cody Hawkins pass and took it to the house for the game-clinching TD in a 40-31 win. If Henery had missed that field goal, Nebraska would have likely lost and fallen to 7-5; they probably wouldn't have qualified for the Gator Bowl, and without the proceeding win over Clemson upon which to build, would the expectations for 2009 have been quite as high? Did the killer kick from Henery change the landscape of the 2009 preseason?

However it happened, here we are. Instead of a predominant "Is this the Jayhawks' time?" offseason storyline, most eyes have been on the Huskers. They're back! Ndamukong Suh! Blackshirts! Domination! (Of course, the cynical Missouri fan in me says the "They're back!" storyline would have been the same if they'd gone 0-12 last year--they're always 'almost back.' But I'm turning over a new leaf and trying to leave cynicism out of this...as much as I can, anyway). Instead of continuing to slowly build the program over time, Bo Pelini is now expected to produce a Top 15-20 team and North champion in Year #2.

Without further adieu, let's dive into our two-day, far-too-detailed look at Pelini's Huskers.

2008

Record: 9-4 (5-3)
S&P+: #21
Scoring Margin: 460-371 (+89)
Conference Scoring Margin: 284-272 (+12)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #20 Kansas, #30 Clemson, #40 Baylor, #79 Kansas State, #82 Colorado, #101 San Jose State, #104 Iowa State, #106 Western Michigan, #110 New Mexico State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #10 Missouri, #15 Texas Tech, #41 Virginia Tech

Nebraska faced a whopping four teams ranked #100 or lower and went just 3-4 against teams in the Top 50. Their capstone wins were at home over #20 Kansas and in Jacksonville against #30 Clemson. In their two games against the S&P+ Top 10, they were outscored 114-45. But it's all about momentum (at least as far as offseason narratives go), and Nebraska has it. They won six of their last seven, and while they didn't beat a marquee team in that time, they did take out three in the Top 40 (KU, Clemson, Baylor). While it's probably true that Henery's kick against #82 Colorado sent expectations through the stratosphere, there's no denying that Nebraska has some things going for them. The nine wins were more than most people expected for 2008 (though not me, ahem), and a lot more is expected in 2009.

Coaching

Head Coach: Bo Pelini
Record at Nebraska: 9-4 (conference: 5-3)
Career Pythagorean Record (explained further down): +1.25 wins (+1.25/year)

A former co-captain and starting free safety for Ohio State (his senior season was Kirk Herbstreit's redshirt freshman season--I point this out only because I can), Bo Pelini has pretty quickly built a solid career for himself. After bouncing around at the grad assistant level for a few years, he made the move to NFL positions coach. He started with the 49ers (DBs coach, 1994-96), then moved to the Pats (LBs, 1997-99) and Packers (LBs, 2000-02). In 2003, he broke into the college ranks by taking over as Defensive Coordinator for Frank Solich's final Nebraska team. Solich was let go, and after a year as co-coordinator at OU, he spent three seasons as DC in Baton Rouge before taking the NU job last year. That's a pretty steady progression.

So how good was Pelini as a defensive coordinator? To gauge that, we can't simply look at his defenses' stats--we also have to compare it to something of a baseline for defensive performance at the schools he coached. So for his three DC gigs, we're going to compare his defenses' performances to the performance of those schools before and after his time.

Nebraska. In 2003, Nebraska gave up 14.5 points and 297.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced an insane 3.5 turnovers per game (granted, 14 turnovers came in three games against Oklahoma State, Southern Miss and Troy, but that's still an impressive total). In the four seasons surrounding Pelini's one year in Lincoln, the Blackshirts gave up 21.9 points and 338.5 yards per game, allowed 4.7 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. Clearly Pelini's '03 unit was better than the others Solich or Bill Callahan produced around that time. (And you wonder why NU fans thought Pelini was an unbelievably great coach.)

Oklahoma. In 2004, Oklahoma gave up 16.8 points and 299.0 yards per game, allowed 4.8 yards per play, and forced 1.7 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his one year in Norman, the Sooners gave up 18.8 points and 297.6 yards per game, allowed 4.6 yards per play, and forced 2.2 turnovers per game. This was a strange situation--he was a co-coordinator, and he was replacing the head coach's brother. His 2004 defense was really no better or worse than the typical Sooner defense (they gave up a couple fewer points, more yards per play, and forced fewer turnovers). Not surprisingly, he left after one season to take over another big-time defense and remove the "Co-" from his title.

LSU. From 2005-07, LSU gave up 15.7 points and 266.7 yards per game, allowed 4.2 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his time there, the Bayou Bengals gave up 17.5 points and 280.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced 1.9 turnovers per game.

Aside from the 2003 turnovers outlier (if Pelini had been there five years, you know they wouldn't have forced 3.5 turnovers per game that whole time--it would have come back down toward the 2.0 range), you do get a pretty good read of a Pelini defense. They're going to give up the expected (and respectable) number of yards, but they also seem able to make the big plays in preventing points. Whether that's just timely blitzes in the red zone or something else, preventing points clearly is a pretty good idea (brilliant analysis, I know), and Pelini's defenses generally knew how to do it.

After five seasons of being a pretty good defensive coordinator, Pelini took the Nebraska job vacated by Bill Callahan. In season #1, the Huskers managed 9 wins despite a Pythagorean projection of just 7.75 wins, so well done there too. Usually a team overachieving its projection that much probably managed to win a series of close games, but Nebraska actually went only 1-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, so...not sure. Really, the projections were probably crazy because they got crushed so badly by Oklahoma and Missouri and it skewed the reliability of the projection. Anyway, I'm not going to think too hard about it. We'll see how his Pythagorean record shapes up after at least a couple more years of data.

Offense

So we've talked a lot about the typical Pelini defense. What did the Pelini offense do in 2008, and what can we expect in 2009?

Overall Stats

S&P+: 119.9 (#18)
Success Rate+: 116.6 (#13)
PPP+: 124.3 (#20)

Standard Downs S&P+: 120.1 (#13)
Passing Downs S&P+: 119.1 (#25)

Redzone S&P+: 117.3 (#22)

Q1 S&P+: 123.8 (#22)
Q2 S&P+: 115.6 (#27)
Q3 S&P+: 123.9 (#17)
Q4 S&P+: 124.4 (#11)

1st Down S&P+: 128.0 (#10)
2nd Down S&P+: 111.9 (#38)
3rd Down S&P+: 123.9 (#22)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 107.1 (#50)
Rushing SR+: 104.0 (#55)
Rushing PPP+: 112.1 (#50)

Standard Downs: 111.7 (#35)
Passing Downs: 84.9 (#102)

Redzone: 94.2 (#87)

Line Yards+: 96.1 (#81)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 131.3 (#10)
Passing SR+: 129.9 (#8)
Passing PPP+: 113.1 (#15)

Standard Downs: 132.9 (#6)
Passing Downs: 130.0 (#17)

Redzone: 163.8 (#4)

Adj. Sack Rate: 4.9% (#40)

In all, Nebraska ended up putting together strong offensive numbers in 2008, better than some would expect. Because of Pelini's reputation and the ongoing "BLACKSHIRTS!!" narrative this offseason, it's assumed that the NU defense runs the show--not true. NU's defensive numbers were decent but far from dominant; meanwhile, they had a Top 20 offense. (Of course, this is a problem since they lost much more on offense than defense.)

NU's numbers here don't have a whole lot of crazy variation, but there is one in particular--while their Passing Downs performance was worse than Standard Downs performance across the board, they were severely lacking in terms of rushing on Passing Downs. What that says is, if they ran the ball on, say, 2nd-and-8, they were not picking up enough yards to avoid a 3rd-and-long.

Here are some other points of interest:

For the most part, their offense got better as the game progressed, from #20-30 in the first half to #10-20 in the second. They were best in the fourth quarter, and if that's because of the system, or the offensive line, or the running backs, that could mean great things for 2009. If it was more because of Joe Ganz or Nate Swift and Todd Peterson, that could be much less encouraging.
Their red zone passing was outstanding, and their red zone rushing was terrible. Strange. Though it also throws a little water on the "Quentin Castille = great short-yardage runner" theory. And again, if this was because of Ganz-to-Swift/Peterson, that could be a red flag.
Another interesting split: NU's O-line was #40 in preventing sacks (though that could have been somewhat due to Ganz's scrambling abilities) but only #81 in line yards. The 2009 O-line should be about the same as 2008, potentially a bit better, so NU's success in 2009 could hinge on whether Zac Lee is as elusive as Ganz.

Quarterback

Zac Lee is the default #1.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#5 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Zac Lee (6'2, 210, Jr.)
Latravis Washington (6'3, 225, Jr.)
Kody Spano (6'2, 215. RSFr.)

A former 4-star JUCO recruit, Lee won the battle for starting QB, in part, by sticking around. Entering the spring, Patrick Witt was seen as the slight favorite to win the starting job, by the end of the spring, he had announced that he was transferring. So that left the job to the winner of a contest between, basically, Lee and converted defender Latravis Washington. From what I read, Washington has nice arm strength and running ability (he was a QB in high school), but...well, in general you have to hope that your starting quarterback was actually playing quarterback twelve months earlier, not linebacker. So in the end, it was probably a relief that Lee won the job--he had a tremendous spring game, and while we've all come to notice how one performance in the spring game is taken more seriously than all other spring practices combined (just ask Blaine Gabbert), it does seem like he performed well enough in the spring that there is a legitimate amount of optimism in how he'll handle the job once the real season starts.

As mentioned above, the key to his success could be his elusiveness. Joe Ganz was able to extend coverage on a lot of plays by avoiding the pass rush and creating things outside the pocket. NU's offensive line was not too tremendous, and he possibly made them look better by avoiding sacks. If this is true, then Lee will need to do the same in 2009.

In the end, Lee shapes up to be anywhere between the #2 and #5 QB in the North, depending on both how he performs and how another newbie QB performs--one-time Nebraska commitment Blaine Gabbert.

Running Backs

Most hope pinned on the NU offense is because of this guy.

2008 Unit Ranking: #20 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Roy Helu, Jr. (6'0, 215, Jr.)
Quentin Castille (6'1, 235, Jr.)
Collins Okafor (6'1, 225, RSFr.)

Taking poor line yardage figures into account, NU's running backs were quite strong in 2008, and they should be even better in 2009. Marlon Lucky was the go-to guy heading into the season, but he just didn't do anything on the field to keep from losing a large percentage of his carries to Roy Helu, Jr. (being injury-prone didn't help). Using the Points Over Expected (POE) measure, Lucky's 2008 carries generated 2.7 points fewer than would have been expected against given opponents (164th among 267 eligible FCS backs). Meanwhile, Helu generated 14.9 points over expected, good for 30th in the country and 6th in the Big 12 behind Kendall Hunter (5th), Chris Brown (8th), Derrick Washington (15th), DeMarco Murray (26th), and Keith Toston (27th). The third guy in the backfield, Quentin Castille, was almost exactly average, generating 1.7 POE.

(It should be noted that Lucky was also the #13 receiving RB according to POE, 2nd in the conference behind DeMarco Murray. Helu was #53, 9th in the conference.)

In the end, Helu took 125 carries, Lucky 125, and Castille 106. Simply splitting Lucky's carries among Helu and castille could generate between 10 and 15 extra EqPts for NU in 2009. That's really not too much to ask from the two, as that would only put Helu up to about 16 carries per game and Castille 14. Honestly, I don't think much of Castille, so the more carries to Helu, the better for Nebraska. The other question, of course, is can somebody like Collins Okafor break into the rotation?

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jeremy Maclin's high school teammate, Mike McNeill

2008 Unit Ranking: #27 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Menelik Holt (6'4, 220, Sr.)
Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.)
Curenski Gilleylen (6'0, 220, So.)
Chris Brooks (6'2, 215, Sr.)
Will Henry (6'5, 215, Jr.)
Khiry Cooper (6'2, 195, RSFr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Mike McNeill (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Dreu Young (6'4, 245, Jr.)
Ryan Hill (6'3, 250, So.)

In 2008, Nate Swift and Todd Peterson combined for 125 catches, 1,727 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the six names on the above WR depth chart combined for 57 catches, 607 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Looking at POE, Swift and Peterson were +29.5, everybody else -7.5.

In other words, the passing game could be pretty iffy in 2009. Now, certainly this receiving corps is more highly-touted from a recruiting perspective, but they have not yet produced, and considering there are two seniors and two juniors there, they've had plenty of opportunities already. Swift in partcular was quite solid, ranking 35th among 411 eligible receivers in POE, 7th in conference and ahead of Michael Crabtree (39th), Jordan Shipley (52nd), and Quan Cosby (100th).

But he's gone. The good news for Nebraska is, there are quite a few candidates for becoming Zac Lee's go-to receiver; the bad news, of course, is there's no guarantee that one will emerge. Menelik Holt has good size but was -1.8 POE (320th in the country). Niles Paul is a solid threat in kick returns but produced -5.7 POE (382nd, third-from-last in the conference ahead of just CU's Patrick Williams and ISU's Darius Darks). Curenski Gilleylen passed up a Mizzou offer to play for the Huskers but produced only 11 yards in two catches last year.

Then there's Chris Brooks, a former 4-star recruit from Hazelwood East (and Mizzou commit), ranked ahead of Chase Coffman, Brock Christopher, Kurtis Gregory, Justin Thornton, Jaron Baston, and Jairus Byrd in Rivals.com's 2005 State of MO rankings. Three seasons in Lincoln have produced three catches and 31 yards. He had himself a nice spring, even catching a touchdown pass in the Red-White Game, but...well, there isn't a very nice way to say this, but if Brooks is one of your top receivers, at this point in his career, that probably means that your receiving corps isn't very good. He's had plenty of time to distinguish himself and hasn't; and with little time on the field to date, it's not tremendously likely that his experience can lead to the latest of late-career breakthroughs...at least not much of one. Never say never, of course, but it's not likely.

The bright spot, however, comes at tight end. Every new QB can use a bailout option at the TE position (Mizzou fans are banking on Andrew Jones becoming just that for Blaine Gabbert), and junior Mike McNeill looks like a pretty nice bailout. He and Helu out of the backfield can allow the Huskers to pick up some yards while remaining conservative and letting Lee grow more confident. Jeremy Maclin's former high school teammate would have looked really good in black and gold.

Offensive Line

Jacob Hickman is one of the conference's better centers. Of course, now he's playing guard.

2008 Unit Ranking: #61 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Jacob Hickman (6'4, 295, Sr.)
T Mike Smith (6'6, 290, Jr.)
G Keith Williams (6'5, 320, Jr.)
T Marcel Jones (6'7, 310, So.)
C Mike Caputo (6'1, 275, So.)
G Ricky Henry (6'4, 300, Jr.)
G DJ Jones (6'5, 315, Jr.)
G Andy Christensen (6'3, 310, Sr.)
T Jaivorio Burkes (6'5, 295, Jr.)
T Brandon Thompson (6'6, 300, RSFr.)

Here's where my own stats confuse me. With good rushing stats and decent sack totals, it seems like NU would have had a pretty good line in 2008. But the line yards measure--not a perfect stat, obviously, but a pretty good one--credited most of NU's rushing yards to the backs, and it really is likely that Ganz's scrambling ability (just think of how much he was on the run against Missouri) bailed the line out of some pretty poor sack numbers. In the end, NU's line ranked poorly, below Iowa State (60th), Kent State (53rd), Southern Miss (51st) and Marshall (50th).

It appears that Bo Pelini knew that his line wasn't too hot--he did a decent amount of shuffling this spring. The result is a line that has potential quality at the guard positions but inexperience at center and shakiness on the outside. Their 61 career starts rank fifth in the conference, but solid experience on a mediocre line isn't as impressive as a smidge less experience on a really good line. With a new QB, new receivers (who may, in theory, take longer to get open), and a unit or RBs who had to create a lot on their own in 2008, the offensive line could be the linchpin of the Nebraska offense.

Summary

If you believe that NU's defense is going to be outstanding in 2009 (maybe, maybe not--we'll talk about this tomorrow), then the offense only needs to be serviceable to win the Huskers some games in the Big 12 North. By all means, there is enough talent here--particularly in Helu, McNeill, Hickman, and potentially Lee--to put some points on the board, but we'll see. The offensive line is relatively experienced but shaky, and the WR corps is the exact opposite of proven. If NU can't avoid passing downs, and if the passing threat isn't enough to prevent defenses from keying on Helu, then this unit could go downhill in a hurry. On potential, Nebraska could have the 2nd- or 3rd-best offense in the North, but some players--Holt, Paul, Jones, Caputo--will need to step up their games for that to happen.

Tomorrow: the defense.

Getting To Know The Huskers: Q&A with Corn Nation Part Two

irish1611 — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 20:00:06 -0000

Here is part two of the Ralphie Report's Q&A session with Corn Nation about the upcoming game this Friday. This Q&A is a must read as you will find the "word association" section hilarious. In case you missed part one, here it is. Thanks to Corn Blight and Husker Mike for taking the time to do this.

How do you see next year's team shaping up minus some pretty good players like Ganz and Swift? From my count based on the rivals depth chart (who knows how accurate that is, the Huskers will be losing 12 senior starters, Buffs lose 6, 5 in my count as I don't count Patrick Williams as a big loss).

Husker Mike: Roy Helu will be solid as he's pretty much taken over at I-back already. Menolik Holt will be a solid wide receiver, and the tight ends are improving quite a bit week by week. Niles Paul shows signs of being a very good receiver as well. The youngsters on the offensive line show promise as well. On defense, we'll return Suh (hopefully), Turner, and Pierre Allen who stepped up well this season. We went into this season with Phillip Dillard being the only linebacker with experience, so we'll be in similar shape next season, but with some help from some touted redshirt freshmen. In the secondary, everybody except Armando Murillo returns. And to replace Murillo, Anthony Blue should be back. So I think NU has a chance to be solid; the big question will be at quarterback.

Corn Blight: The term "starters" should be taken with a grain of salt this season. Pelini has played a lot of guys, so many are getting experience for next season. Obviously the biggest replacement will be Joe Ganz. He knows the offense well and it will be tough for next year's starter to duplicate his achievements.

One of the big keys will be next year's offensive line. We lose some seniors this season, some who will get some press, but we may be better next year due to a heavy rotation with younger guys getting experience.

Is there anything that concerns you about the game Friday? 16 point favorites, the Nebraska offense is hot, Ganz minus a few pick sixes is really clicking, the defense seems to be holding their own and the infamous "black shirts" are back. Easy win right?

Husker Mike: The NU/CU game has become rather wacky in recent years as both programs have been flirting with mediocrity. Right now, I think NU SHOULD win the game based on how CU has played in recent weeks, though the stout performance by the Buffs against Okie State is concerning.

Corn Blight: It appears that way, yes, but we know that Colorado will give us their best shot. The Buffs can say what they want about playing the game down, keeping everything level. That sounds good in an article, but we all know it's pure bullshit and that y'all want this game pretty badly, more than just wanting to get bowl eligible.

What concerns me is if we walk into this game thinking the same thing - easy win - and then come out flat allowing the Buffs to stay in the game.

Finish these sentences...

Nebraska wins if they...

Husker Mike: Hold onto the ball, manage the game, and take care of business.

Corn Blight: Don't turn the ball over and the offense clicks on the ground and air.

Colorado wins if they...

Husker Mike: Somehow get some offensive consistency and start controlling the clock. That might take Nebraska out of their game.

Corn Blight: Can find a way to stay in the game by forcing turnovers and with big plays from special teams.

Word Association Time (Just 2 - 8 words for each). What comes to mind when you hear these things:

Colorado Fans -

Husker Mike: America's version of European soccer hooligans.

Corn Blight: fair weather classless hippies in training

Colorado Football -

Husker Mike: Inconsistently decent program.

Corn Blight: Should be better than it is right now

Bo Pelini -

Husker Mike: Jury's still out. Cautiously optimistic.

Corn Blight: learning to be a head football coach

Dan Hawkins -

Husker Mike: Light flaky crust, much like the CU football program.

Corn Blight: slowly being swallowed by the culture of Boulder

62- 36 -

Husker Mike: Apparently Colorado's greatest football accomplishment.

Corn Blight: the beginning of the end of an era

Bill Callahan -

Husker Mike: Decent o-line coach, overwhelmed as a head coach.

Corn Blight: an insecure obsessive boob who shouldn't rise above a position coach at any level.

Frank Solich -

Husker Mike: Biggest flaw: following Tom Osborne.

Corn Blight: Doomed before he started.

Boulder -

Husker Mike: I hear the mountains are beautiful.

Corn Blight: I saw Devo there in the 80's.

Runza -

Husker Mike: Can't wait to either down one or throw up.

Corn Blight: Nebraska comfort food.

Oklahoma -

Husker Mike: Best football program in the Big XII this year and this decade.

Corn Blight: The team that both Nebraska and Colorado want to be.

Bill Snyder -

Husker Mike: Miracle worker who might be out of magic.

Corn Blight: Glad it's not my problem.

The impending doom situation that is OU and Texas in the BCS -

Husker Mike: Let's wait a week or two on that one.

Corn Blight: An anarchist's dream! Yeah, baby!

Colorado vs. Nebraska - Rivalry or Not?

Husker Mike: Only because ABC says so.

Corn Blight: This will only be a rivalry when Colorado fans begin to respect themselves and their team more than they enjoy hating us. I can't speak for all Husker fans but after putting a fair amount of thought into it, this is what bugs me the most about Buffs fans.

If Colorado wins, then Buffs fans are all over it. If they lose, then, well, you act like you don't care and start talking about the Denver Broncos. It's hard to respect people who don't stand for anything. There is certainly a mutual hatred, but it's mostly of the unhealthy variety.

In the end, Nebraska fans are not going to call you guys rivals because it appears to irritate you so much. That's too bad because you serve as a perfect "evil" to our "good".

Buffs #1 in Learning Life Lessons: Oklahoma State beats Colorado 30 - 17.

irish1611 — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 16:02:52 -0000

Losses against the #11 team, #4 team, #19 team, #15 team and a #16 team in Kansas at the time should buy you an excuse. Let's face it. The Buffs deserve some benefit of the doubt with the schedule and the injuries and the youth. Yeah, I got the company line down Coach Hawkins. Like we joked in the game thread, the Buffs are #1 in "learning about life lessons," having "fun," making Hawkins "proud" and dealing with "adversity." Those teams the Buffs lost to rank much lower, definitely out of the top 25 in "learning life lessons." We got that on all of them, especially the Big 12 South! All I know is I hope the Buffs aren't ranked #1 in "having fun" next year. It's a lonely spot, no one seems to challenge us for it. "Having fun" is watching Oklahoma vs Texas Tech or Texas vs Texas Tech. It is officially becoming hard to watch Buffs games. Hard. I watched Cherry Creek H.S. upset Grandview H.S. (no allegiances, in fact I dislike Creek) and I had "fun" watching that game. They made plays, didn't catch punts inside the 10 yard line, their WR's didn't drop five or six passes and overall, they played a style of football that was "entertaining." At least the CU players are "having fun." I wish I could say that for the fans.

Yes, the Buffs covered last night, only lost by 13 and gave the impression that they were in the game. CU had chances to close the gap inside the 10 point mark but it felt more like OSU was just toying with the Buffs and less CU getting in control? I mean RB Kendall Hunter got hurt, TE Brandon Pettigrew was in and out of the game, the Pokes did CU a favor by not throwing to one of the best WR in the nation in Dez Bryant and gave the Buffs a gimme interception inside the red zone. As soon as the Buffs get down by more than 10 points versus anyone with a pulse (that negates Iowa State), the Buffs have not shown the ability to come back.

Frustration sets in when "having fun" needs to shift to making plays. Last night their were a couple of times when one unit would do something and give the Buffs some momentum and the other unit wouldn't capitalize. For example:

The Buffs' offense is stopped on their first drive, OSU drives down the field easily but the CU defense steps up and holds Oklahoma State to three points. Momentum Buffs. The offense begins to drive past midfield, then the Buffs run a fake reverse to Patrick Williams, attempted hand off to Sumler that was fumbled by Hawkins which lost 12 yards and boom, end of drive. Momentum lost.

read about more missed opportunites after the jump...

The next drive, the Pokes drive down the field and again, hold them to a field goal. Moral victory: Buffs. CU's offense drives down the field and stalls again, this time inside the OSU 30 after the Buffs get a holding penalty to make it 3rd and 18. Whether it's execution, play calling or the defense making plays, CU's offense doesn't seem to respond well on the opposition's side of the field. The Buffs miss a field goal and again, momentum is lost. The Pokes go on to score a touchdown and it is now 13 - 0. It could have been 6 - 3. Sounds similar to the Florida State and Texas games.
Okay, its only 13 - 3 at halftime. All of us would sign up for that today. It's not an impossible hill to climb. We all agreed that if the Buffs could get a stop right out of the gate, this could be a game. CU needed to make a couple of halftime adjustments like stopping Kendall Hunter who averaged 7.0 y/c in the first half and the Buffs should be good. Shame on us for thinking about halftime adjustments. 2nd and 17, the Buffs defense seems to be in a great spot and just like that, Kendall Hunter goes all Antoine Smith on us from FSU and takes it 47 yards to the house. 20 - 3. Missed opportunity.
But the Buffs get a lucky play where a Hawkins pass bounces off Cody Crawford and into the hands of Scotty McKnight for a touchdown on fourth down. Buffs back in the game. 20 - 10. Just need a stop on defense. Folsom is ready to go nuts with a stop. Davis kicks a touch back. OSU has to go 80 yards. The Buffs defense is in a great position. Eight plays later and the Buffs unable to get Oklahoma State to a third down situation, momentum is once again lost. 27 - 10 Pokes. Buffs inexplicably continue to rush three, play zone with the other eight and make Zac Robinson look like a world beater by throwing 10 yard dump passes.The Buffs defense didn't sack or even come close to sacking Robinson the whole game. Yep, the three man rush is working!
CU LB Shaun Mohler (who had a pretty strong game all around, 12 tackles and an INT) intercepts the ball inside OSU's red zone. Buffs score 27 - 17. The defense responds and forces a punt which Josh Smith catches at the CU 7 yard line instead of trying to let it go into the end zone. CU goes three and out in the fourth quarter and that is all she wrote. To further show the Buffs offense did not make plays, they went 3 - 15 on third downs and only gained 116 yards in the second half, 304 for the game.

If your an optimist, you look at that and say the Buffs were close. Very true. If your a realist and a fan who has been watching this team the whole year, it is an ugly trend that has continued the whole year: a lack of play making. Youth and injuries are a great reason for why the Buffs aren't making plays. Learning to respond in key moments is gained by experience. Losing both the starting safeties and starting running back can have a big impact on a team. You know the rest of the rap injury list that I don't need to go over it. Preparation, adjustments and coaching is another reason the Buffs aren't making plays.

The Buffs have a week off and then play the dreaded Huskers who seem to be peaking right now, which is bad news for the Buffs, who are already at a disadvantage on the road. The Buffs will surely be double digit underdogs. Winning would be a big upset but you never know when these two get together. A couple extra weeks of practice would be beneficial if the Buffs were to win but I am anxious for next season. Start saying your prayers that the Buffs will have minimal injuries next year and that "fun" isn't the top priority of this team. I am ready for next year already. Yes, I will be amped for Nebraska but next year is time for results.

Put Your Keys Up: Colorado Buffaloes vs. Texas Longhorns Keys to the Game & Prediction

irish1611 — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 17:00:04 -0000

VS.

It has been a busy week on The Ralphie Report so far...Woodrow and I have put up a lot of information from recruiting to round tables to an exciting podcast that we did with Burnt Orange Nation. But now it is time to get down to business. All the work has been put in during the week. The film has been studied, the game plans set, the schemes understood. Most people aren't giving the Buffs a chance and the popular opinion among Texas blogs is that this Colorado team is a joke, a mediocre team who will be lucky to go to a bowl game this year. Personally, I like the Buffs position right now. Its like Coach Hawkins said yesterday "So if you want to spend time handing out game balls 'cause you beat West Virginia or having a funeral 'cause you lost to Florida State, that's wrong. You just keep re-pooling, re-tooling, working it out." One bad game against FSU doesn't make a season and I fully expect this Buffs' team to respond against Texas in a strong manner. In either a win or loss result, I believe this team will take a step forward. One thing is for sure, Hawkins has a way to get his team motivated and ready for these types of games (look at Georgia & Texas Tech in his first year and Texas Tech & Oklahoma in his second). Now the keys to the game and The Ralphie Report's prediction! I think the keys of the game sections is the best of the year so far!

CU's Defensive Keys to the Game:

1) Texas has scored 73 of their 198 points (37%) in the second quarter this year compared to only giving up 20. On the flip side, Colorado has allowed more points in the second quarter (40 of the 94 or 43%) than any other quarter this year. What does this mean...the Buffs need to do a better job with the in game adjustments. Watch for the second quarter points. Last week against FSU, the Buffs gave up 12 points while not putting any on the board. The Buffs were down 12 at half time and never could recover. We talk about half time adjustments being important but this week it is about making the correct in game adjustments once Texas understands the schemes CU's defense is throwing at them.

2) Texas has had 31, count'em 31 plays over 20 yards this year. The Buffs must limit the big play. Texas has good wide receivers on the outside with Shipley and Cosby. Colt McCoy is also a threat to break a big run as he has 5 for over 20 yards. Momentum is going to be a big intangible in this game and nothing quiets a crowd or deflates a team early than a big special teams, defense or offensive play.

3) Without a doubt Colt McCoy has had a great start to this season. He, without question, has rebounded from what was a sophomore slump and has made hay against the four teams Texas has played thus far. McCoy has had a hand in 67% of the total offensive yards this year and is the leading rusher for the Texas Longhorns. How do you stop Colt McCoy's productive onslaught? Hit him hard every time he has the ball. If there is still animosity about the 70 - 3 loss in 2005, use it on McCoy. He needs to think twice about wanting to be Texas' leading rusher and Mack Brown needs to understand that putting your quarterback at risk for John Chiles is not a good option. We know McCoy is tough and is a competitor but to have him running wild like Texas has him doing with a history of getting dinged up from time to time is a little crazy in my mind. The Buffs need to make Brown and the Longhorns pay for not having a running game.

4) Great segue from the last key point is the fact that Texas doesn't have a running game without Colt McCoy. The Buffs can't do what they did last week: let an inexperienced offensive line and poor performing running game go for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns. That cannot happen this week. If there is a weakness to this Texas unit it is their lack of running game from the running back position and this week the Buffs cannot be the team that Texas turns it into a strength against.

5) CU's defense needs to be aggressive. Enough with only rushing four. Enough with counting on the defensive line to put the pressure on the quarterback. Enough with thinking that the Buffs are good enough to play straight up on defense and win these types of games. It's time that the coaching staff brings multiple looks (that does not include the 3 - 4 that we saw last week get torn up early). The Buffs need to bring people off the edge and up the middle from the linebacker position all day long. CU is going to have to get creative in trying to confuse an offense that is running on all cylinders. Sit back this week Ron Collins and Texas will torch the Buffs. Hey, blitzing might get the Buffs torched but it will give CU a much better chance at causing turnovers and sputtering the Texas offense.

CU's Offensive Keys to the Game:

1) The good thing about last week's game is that the Buffs make four plays that they are capable of, they win the game. But this game is about making plays and the Buffs, I mean Cody Hawkins, missed three that would have led to at least 14 points if not more. I would be shocked if Cody didn't come out and have his best game of the year. Finishing plays should be the goal of this offense come Saturday at 5 o'clock.

2) The Buffs have had no offensive rhythm the first four games of this year. When the Buffs scored 14 points on WVU early, they threw a bunch of quick hitting passes which never hit the ground. CU needs to play a timing offense where the ball is out of Cody's hands in under 4 seconds and into the receivers hands. Let's get the high percentage plays rolling early to give this young offensive line and Cody Hawkins some confidence.

3) Paging WR Scotty McKnight and WR Patrick Williams...time to start being contributors. McKnight really needs to get into the action early and often. He is the most reliable WR that the Buffs have and it needs to be a priority to get him in the groove early and often. The reason Scotty McKnight is so important for this offense is his ability to make plays over the middle. Right now the only threat the Buffs have is WR Josh Smith on the edges which is leaving 2/3 of the field unoccupied. We will know the game is going right if Scotty McKnight is rolling in catches over the middle.

4) There is a big statistic that looms over the head of this offense the last two years and frankly it is getting old. That stat is Cody Hawkins has throw an interception in 15 of his 17 games as a Colorado Buffalo. This year the Buffs have turned over the ball 8 times (average of 2 a game) and have an even turnover margin. That being said, Texas has only forced 6 turnovers this year but they have a +2 in turnover margin. Texas won't cause a lot of turnovers but at the same time, the Longhorns don't give the ball up on offense either. Once again, the Buffs can't make this the Longhorns coming out party for causing turnovers. It all starts with Cody getting his pre-snap reads, going through his 3 to 4 progressions and making the proper decisions. The coaching staff can help out Cody and the offensive line by calling high percentage pass plays with little risk to allow Cody to get a feel for the offense and understand the multiple sets Muschamp and the Longhorns are going to throw out their.

5) Get a lead. Like I said in the interview with Burnt Orange Nation, Texas hasn't faced any adversity this year. Getting a lead early in front of a sellout crowd at Folsom Field will put a little pressure on a Texas team that has mowed through it's competition so far. The beautiful thing about football is the fact that it is such an emotional and intangibly driven game that a team can get confidence and get hot. CU getting an early lead will do wonders for their confidence.

Players That Need to Go Big Against Texas

1) OT Matt Bahr - Surely Texas will put their big time defensive end Brian Orakpo (6 sacks) on first time starter and red shirt freshman Matt Bahr. My message to Bahr is that you know you are going to get beat but stay confident and keep attacking. Don't let Orakpo smell blood. To the coaching staff...let's make sure we get Bahr some help with TE Riar Geer chipping down or a back patrolling the area.

2) QB Cody Hawkins - the game rests on his shoulders. That's the good and bad about being a quarterback, especially on a young team. Cody realizes that and I think he believes this is a great opportunity. Good quarterbacks shine in tough spots. No fumbles, no bad sacks and no interceptions. Win this game and everyone forgets about last week.

3) LB Brad Jones - Mr Jones, you have been deemed my "Hit Colt McCoy in the Chops Guy." Nothing illegal Texas fans but Jones is in charge of making McCoy regret ever crossing that line of scrimmage. Jones has to be an animal this game. I look for LB Shaun Mohler to do some of the same patrol work as well.

4) DT Brandon Nicolas - time to step up. Nicolas and George Hypolite have been solid but not game changing like they were billed to be before the season started. If there is ever a time for a coming out party, this would be the week to do it. Texas will try to take these guys out of the game by running the shotgun spread offense similar to CU but eliminating the dive will help the linebackers focus on McCoy.

5) WR Scotty McKnight - I really like this kid but he has disappeared the last two games with only 5 catches for 21 yards. Last year he was Cody's favorite target and the Buffs most reliable WR as a freshman. He is a crucial part of the Buffs timing in the passing game. He will have to be Mr. Reliable this game for the Buffs to be efficient on offense.

Prediction Time!

So I am on record of saying Texas 31 - 23 and I will stick to that based on my concern for CU's on offense line agains the Texas defense and Brian Orakpo. I am also worred about whether the defense can fully contain the Longhorns but I will say this...don't sleep on the Buffs Longhorns. This isn't the pushover that you all think it will be. Buffs should at the least cover the 13.5 points.