SB Nation - Michael Sipili

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

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Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

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Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

Five Questions With The Ralphie Report

Jeremy Mauss — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 11:00:31 -0000

The football season is just around the corner, and throughout the non-conference season here at the Connection and we will be interviewing various bloggers with five questions about the upcoming game. This edition features the blog up is The Ralphie Report which is a Colorado blog and they are answering five questions about opponent Colorado State. Also, check out their site for my answers to the five questions later this week.

1. Does this rivalry lose any luster by not being played in Denver this year, and instead being played in Boulder?

Now that the game is scheduled to be played for the next decade, I don't think the rivalry loses any luster by not playing in Denver one year. If anything, it may add some story lines as the game returns to a college campus. There is always a different buzz when the game is played in Boulder and as a Buff supporter, in an important year for Colorado, you won't find me complaining about it too much. If I was a CSU fan, it might be a different story.

2. Is Cody Hawkins still the starter because he is the coaches son, or is the QB situation that wide open?

I think the assumption that Dan Hawkins is playing his son just because he is his son is ludicrous and that is not a shot at the question because that is something that has been thrown out by media all over the place the last few years. I don't believe for one second that Dan Hawkins would risk his high paying job or reputation based on a bias. Although Cody (and Dan) catches a lot of heat, he was the best option the Buffs had at quarterback while he has been at Colorado. The argument "he only plays because he is the kid of the coach" only works when there is a 6'5" 230 pound stud with a rocket arm and a 4.5 forty on the bench. In all fairness to a true freshman Tyler Hansen in 2008 and Matt Ballenger, Cody Hawkins was the best quarterback on the team last season. I truly believe the best quarterback for the team will play against Colorado State and, from what I have seen at practice, that is Cody Hawkins.

We have been told that the quarterback competition is wide open and so far, reps have been split pretty evenly to determine who should get the nod. Colorado St. will probably see a dose of both quarterbacks.

While I give Dan Hawkins the benefit of the doubt on the quarterback he plays based on what he has on the roster at the time, that doesn't excuse him for not solidifying the quarterback position via recruiting better quarterbacks, a better game plan, depth around the quarterback, etc.

3. What does Head Coach Dan Hawkins need to accomplish to stay off the hot seat or not get fired?

Due to the financial ramifications of firing a head coach, especially one who just received an extension like Hawkins, it would take a lot for Dan Hawkins to be fired. One or two wins and the department would have to think really hard about the situation but unless the season is catastrophic like a one win total, Dan Hawkins should be back in 2010.

To get off the hot seat, though, he needs to win 8+ games and get to a decent bowl game. This is by far the easiest schedule the Buffs have had since Hawkins has been here and when you look at the next couple of years, it will be the best chance them to get something rolling. He needs to win to recruit and convince prospects that the program is healthy and he will be at the helm.

Hawkins also needs to win some road games, preferably a big one here or there. CU has won two games away from Folsom field since Hawkins took over, which will never get you to elite status. Wins @ West Virginia, @Kansas State, @Iowa State and @ Toledo are not out of the question (no one expects the Buffs to go into Austin or Stillwater and win) and would go a long way towards making the faithful believe the Buffs are headed in the right direction.

4. What needs to improve more for a successful season, the offense or defense?

Easy, the offense. Both need to improve but hands down, the offense needs to show the greatest improvement. The Buffs have had the worst statistical offense in the Big 12 over the last three years, putting up embarrassing offensive numbers in terms of yards and points. You can expect a 13 - 24 record when you are ranked last in a conference that has turned into an offensive juggernaut.

Better question is will the Buffs be able to improve this season? I think so. The offensive line and running backs are going to be very good. They are much healthier than a year ago and have gained a valuable year of experience. There is also great depth at the two positions. Since the line and the running backs will be better, I expect the quarterback play to improve. A year ago, the offensive line was patchwork at best making any quarterback's life difficult. We all know Cody Hawkins isn't going to light the world on fire but he has the makings to be a solid quarterback and one who can lead CU to 8 wins in 2010.

Wide receiver is concern as well with Josh Smith transferring to UCLA. Right now, Colorado has one wide-out who has caught a pass in a division one football game. That is a scary prospect. But the Buffs should improve in this area when sophomore Markques Simas returns from suspension in the third week of the season and Andre Simmons continues to develop after having to sit out most of fall camp due to a delay in the admissions process from junior college. Simmons is 6'3" 215 pounds and should provide the Buffs with a big playmaker. When we can start to reap the benefits of Simmons remains to be seen but I don't expect Simmons to play a big role in the Colorado State game.

5. How is the defense going to fair by replacing their defensive line that is going up against an offensive line that has 129 cumulative starts which is most in the country?

Let's go back to last year to get some perspective on the Buffs defensive line and the uber-experienced Colorado State offensive line. In 2008, the defensive line underperformed to expectations. The Buffs were 7th in the Big 12 in sacks and 54th overall. The team leader in sacks was LB Brad Jones so once again, showing the defensive line's experience last year didn't translate to sacks or quarterback pressure. Also, the Buffs were horrible against the run, ranking 9th in the Big 12 while giving up 166 yards per game.

Against this same offensive line last year and an underperforming defensive line, the Buffs got to Farris 5 times (only 24 sacks all season, over 1/5 of the production in one game) and gave up 71 net yards on the ground compared to an average of 166 per game last season. Yes, this offensive line is very experienced but, for arguments sake, let's not necessarily equate experience with dominance especially considering the Rams lose a lot of talent at running back from last year. That being said, I understand the point that the offensive line improved as the year went on and that is where they gained most of their experience. So I expect them to be better but factoring in the new quarterback and running backs, I am not ready to crown them just yet.

Of course, I am still worried about the Buffs defensive line. Worried in the sense that no one knows what to expect at the position which is better than knowing the line will be horrendous. Last year, the same was being said about the Buffs' cornerbacks but that turned out to be a strength and in 2009, Colorado might have the best set of cornerbacks in the conference. So who knows what will come from the front four.

The Buffs will definitely compensate for the inexperience up front by showing multiple formations varying from the 4 - 3, 3 - 4 and even a 3 - 3 - 5 in passing situations due to a strong back seven. Middle linebackers Marcus Burton (260 pounds) and Michael Sipili (250 pounds, questionable for the game) have really emerged compared to last season and should bolster the middle with their size compared to a year ago. I expect a very active linebacking corp this season, starting with the game this Sunday, to get pressure on the quarterback and aid in the run. I would be very surprised if you didn't see a lot of 3 - 4 to get the most playmakers on the field with blitzes coming from many spots on the field.

Prediction Time - I am always nervous for the first game of the year and with big question marks at wide receiver, quarterback (I am not too worried about quarterback but if I didn't list it, I assume I would be chastised for it) and defensive line, I hesitate from predicting a Buffs blowout. But I ask myself "are the Buffs better than last year?" and the answer is "yes." Considering the Buffs have improved, are healthier and is playing at home, Colorado starts 1 - 0. Score 31 - 20.

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Colorado Buffaloes Team Capsule

irish1611 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 08:36:59 -0000

If the Buffs are to realize their goals for 2009, Cody Hawkins' and the entire offenses' performance much improve from their 95th total offense ranking a year ago.

View full size photo »

Coach: Dan Hawkins enters his third season at Colorado (13-24, 0 - 1 in postseason).
Coaching Changes: Offensive Coordinator Eric Kiesau (replaces Mark Helfrich - Oregon), Offensive Line Coach Denver Johnson (replaces Jeff Grimes - Auburn), Defensive Consultant/Linebackers Bob Foster added to roster, Dan Hawkins to coach Wide Receivers.
2008 Record: 5-7 overall, 2-6 in Big 12
Players Returning with '08 Starts:
- Offense: 15 - WR Scotty McKnight, LT Nate Solder, LG Blake Behrens, RT Matthew Bahr, TE Riar Geer, TE Ryan Deehan, QB Cody Hawkins, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Rodney Stewart, RB Demetrius Sumler, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Darrell Scott, FB Jack Behrens, OG Ryan Miller, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner.
  - 64% (85 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Defense: 9 - DE Marquez Herrod, LB Jeff Smart, LB Shaun Mohler, CB Cha'pelle Brown, S Anthony Perkins, S Patrick Mahnke, CB Jimmy Smith, CB Jalil Brown, LB Michael Sipili
  - 39% (51 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Special teams: 2 - P Matt DiLallo, PK Aric Goodman.
Key Positions to Replace From 2008 - Defensive Line, Center, Safety
Key Losses from 2008: LB Brad Jones, S Ryan Walters, DT George Hypolite, DT Brandon Nicolas, C Daniel Sanders, OG Devin Head.
Newcomers Who Might See Time in 2009: DE Nick Kasa, DT Nate Bonsu, LB Forrest West, WR Jarrod Darden, WR Will Jefferson, WR Terdema Ussery, WR Andre Simmons, K Zach Grossnickle.

OFFENSE

2008 OFFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Offense: 86^th overall, 10^th in Big 12 / Passing Offense: 81^st overall, 11^th in Big 12 / Total Offense: 95^th overall, 12^th in Big 12 / Scoring Offense: 100^th overall, 12^th in Big 12.

The 2008 season was an offensive performance to forget. A rash of injuries, inexperienced players at important positions and a lack of a consistent identity spelt trouble for the Colorado Buffaloes. With the 2009 season just around the corner, a more experienced unit overall plus a healthy group of linemen up front has many hoping that the Buffs will reverse the lackluster offensive performance of the past few years. That being said, there are still plenty of question marks that still need to be answered.

the rest of the offensive, defensive, Q&A and win/loss predictions after the jump....

NEW FACES BRINGS NEW SCHEMES: One of the headlines coming into the 2009 season was the changes to the offensive staff. Joining the Colorado Buffaloes this offseason was offensive line coach Denver Johnson, who previously held the Illinois State head coaching job. Replacing Jeff Grimes, Johnson has seemed to endear himself to the fan base, preaching to bring back a more smash mouth style of football, playing on the opposition's side of the ball and putting the five linemen on the field. Such was displayed with Johnson's decision to move Ryan Miller to guard to make way for OT Blake Behrens. Johnson inherits a unit with no seniors but full of talent and a reason to be optimistic about the program's future. If Johnson can quickly& successfully implement his system with this young but relatively experienced offensive line, Buff fans should brace for a much improved offensive performance in 2009. The good news for the new coach is, unlike last year, his unit looks much healthier. Back from injury/off the field issues is Miller, OG Ethan Adkins, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner (mid season return expected) and C Mike Iltis; all of whom will be battling for a starting spot.

Their was also a shake up at the top with former wide receivers and assistant head coach, Eric Kiesau, taking over as offensive coordinator for Mark Helfrich. The season opener against Colorado State will mark the first game which Eric Kiesau has owned the game plan and called the plays on game day. Last season, the Buffs failed to establish any sort of identity, attempting to run the spread with a youthful, injured team that lacked game changing playmakers. Kiesau has said to want to bring back a more "pro-style" offense that allows for more power football, the use of tight ends and a progression based passing game, three traits that bode well for the strengths of CU's offense.

Head coach Dan Hawkins will take over the wide receiver coaching duties replacing Kiesau. Ashley Ambrose will assist Hawkins with the wide receivers and should take over in the near future.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: With WR Markques Simas suspended for the first two games of the season, junior college transfer WR Andre Simmons qualifying status up the air as of Thursday, August 18^th, the lone remaining experienced receiver on the Buffs' roster is Scotty McKnight. Not labeled as an explosive receiver, the Buffs need him to continue to be the steady force and over achieve on his prior two seasons considering the Buffs might not have a lot elsewhere to provide production. Colorado might get some production out of true freshman Will Jefferson, Jarrod Darden and Terdema Ussery but McKnight might be the best and only experienced option in 2009.

In an obvious choice, QB Cody Hawkins, who looks to have the edge in the quarterback race, needs to improve from 2008. The lack of playmakers currently at wide receiver does not bode well for increased production from Hawkins but tight end, running back and offensive line look to be improved from a year ago. If Hawkins can make better decisions and manage the offense through a strong running game, the passing game should open up. The key for Hawkins this year is to increase his completion percentage which was 57.2% in 2008, about 5% below the average junior quarterback % in 2008. Sustaining drives, keeping the defense off the field and converting on third downs will all improve with an increase in completions.

You could go running back here but with a stable of four in the backfield, the production looks to be there. Most Buff fans will look at the offensive line and hope that their health leads to more points. That being said, look to the tackle spots as players who need to play big in 2009. LT Nate Solder and RT Blake Behrens have the inside track at the two starting positions with the prospects of a bright future ahead of them. Solder, the athletically gifted converted tight end, has all the intangibles to be a dominant tackle while Behrens has similar intangibles and great footwork. Solder, due to his position change, and Behrens, due to being a redshirt freshman, will still have growing pains but if they are able to work through those early in the season, the offensive line has the makings to be special.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Hands down this was going to be WR Markques Simas or WR Andre Simmons before the former was suspended two games and the latter is still sitting on the sideline well into week two of fall ball due to admissions issues. The new impact newcomer may be WR Will Jefferson, who was an August 2009 signee. He has seen time with the first and second teams this fall and has impressed the coaches. The safe pick here, though, is Givens, who quickly inserted himself into the starting rotation this spring after gaining 20+ pounds to his true freshman frame. Givens has the ability to grow into a great one.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE OFFENSE: Running Back and Offensive Line. The Buffs boast one of the more loaded backfields in the Big 12 with sophomores Darrell Scott, Rodney Stewart and Brian Lockridge along with junior Demetrius Sumler. Stewart led the Buffs in rushing yards as a freshman and Sumler led the team in rushing touchdowns in 2008. Lockridge, a speedster, returns from injury after a serviceable 2007 freshman campaign and looks to be an added weapon that can be useful as a third down back and in the slot. But Darrell Scott still leads the ranks in the hype category. Supposedly in the best shape of his life at 220 pounds and fully recovered from his 2008 injury-plagued season, Scott looks to take a mulligan in 2009 and become an elite Big 12 back. Still, don't count out the other three, especially Rodney Stewart, who continues to impress. We do know one thing; running backs coach Darian Hagan will play the best man for the job regardless of preseason hype.

The offensive line has all the potential you could ask for to build a team around. They are big, fast, athletic, and will be around for a long time. Nate Solder is the veteran on the offensive line, sort of, checking in as a junior with all other players vying for starting spots coming in as either sophomores or redshirt freshmen. Solder and Ryan Miller lead the way in the size category coming at 6'9" 305 pounds and 6'8" 320 pounds respectively with Solder considered to be one of the most athletic players on the team, running a sub 5.0 second forty this offseason. C Mike Iltis looks to have the center spot locked down replacing Daniel Sanders from a year ago while Givens will man the right tackle spot. The only position that looks to be up for grabs at this point in time is the other guard spot. Ethan Adkins looks to have the upper hand but watch out for Blake Behrens and Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner, once he returns from his ACL injury, to push for time there. This unit is big, athletic, has depth and should be a bright spot in 2009 if they can protect the quarterback.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE OFFENSE: Wide Receiver and Quarterback. Wide receiver takes spots #1 and #2 in our weakness review. With Scotty McKnight the only player active who has caught a pass in a division one football game, the Buffs lack known quantities at the flanker spot. Markques Simas will hopefully return against Wyoming from suspension but with his academic ineligibility in 2008 coupled with the most current infraction, Buff fans should not count on anything. Andre Simmons, if admitted, should not be expected to be ready for the Colorado State game considering he has been sitting on the sideline for the last two weeks. Hopefully the Buffs can have both Simmons and Simas ready by the Wyoming game and can get production from one of the true freshman. Walk-on WR Jason Espinoza will also play a part in the offense. There are just not a lot of options at wide receiver this year.

Playmaking ability still remains a big concern on both sides of the ball. In 2008, the Buffs lacked explosiveness and with former WR Josh Smith transferring to UCLA, many players will be counted on to be a game changer that have not necessarily produced game changing results in the past. If the Buffs want to get to 7, 8 or 9 wins, Darrell Scott, Markques Simas, Rodney Stewart, Brian Lockridge, potentially Andre Simmons, one of the tight ends need to evolve into consistent threats on the offensive side of the ball.

DEFENSE

2008 DEFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Defense: 86^th overall, 9^th in Big 12 / Passing Efficiency Defense: 73rd overall, 5^th in Big 12 / Total Defense: 78^th overall, 4^th in Big 12 / Scoring Defense: 86^th overall, 8^th in Big 12.

2008 provided some surprises on the defensive side of the ball. A senior-laden defensive line was supposed to be the strength of the team with the cornerbacks the weak spot. Roles reversed and relatively speaking, the cornerback play exceeded expectations while the defensive line failed to meet expectations. Often thought of as "solid but not spectacular" last season, the defense is considered to be strong to very strong in the back seven in 2009 but inexperienced up front. Colorado's defense has the opportunity to be a top tier Big 12 squad if they can get solid play from the front four.

ADJUSTING AND MULTIPLE: No one knows really what the Buffs are going to do on defense this year. Dan Hawkins has kept the defense on the far side of the practice field this offseason out of the public eye, shut down practices because of the leaking of defensive formations on the internet and has even brought in Bob Foster, his past mentor at Cal-Davis, to add his defensive knowledge. As noted above and from what observers have seen, the Buffs look like they won't be afraid to mix up the base sets. The lack of known commodities up front might force Colorado to become more multiple, switching between the 3 - 4, 4 - 3 and even 3 - 3 - 5 defensive schemes. Such defensive looks are possible due to some exceptional depth at the linebacker and cornerback spots.

Defensive coordinator Ron Collins has preached this offseason that his goal is to get the 11 best players on the field and that might mean three down linemen. If the Buffs lineup with three, Collins will have to be creative in his blitz packages and cover schemes. Establishing quarterback pressure is the name of the game this year as last year the Buffs ranked 7^th in the conference in sacks, averaging on 2.0 a game.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: The Buffs need to replace 17 ½ sacks which is well over half of their total sack production from a year ago. Most are hoping that LB B.J. Beatty can replace last year's production of LB Brad Jones. Beatty showed, when healthy, that he has a nose for the football. If Colorado opts for a 3 - 4 defense, Beatty figures to play a prominent role as a rush end/stand-up outsider backer similar to what Brad Jones did for the '08 team. Again, with the major concern over who is going to get to the quarterback, players like B.J. Beatty are going to have to produce.

Marcus Burton is another player who is being counted on for a big year. An afterthought last year, Burton has rededicated himself to football and the 260 pound middle linebacker made his presence known this spring. Even though he was the biggest linebacker during offseason testing, Burton still produced the fastest forty time and showed great sideline to sideline range. Burton, considering with inexperience up front, will have a difficult job sifting through offensive linemen and being productive. Burton will have to be the anchor of the defense, especially in the early going of the season as the coaches try to figure out who will produce up front.

CB Jimmy Smith is the final player who needs to have a big year. With two inexperienced safeties in the Colorado secondary and a defensive line that is unproven, pass coverage will be at a premier this season. CB Cha'pelle Brown proved his worth last season. With CB Ben Burney returning from injury and CB Jalil Brown back from a successful 2008 campaign, the Buffs have plenty of depth at the position. But Jimmy Smith has the ability to change the game and shut down a side of the field on his own, making S Patrick Mahnke and S Anthony Perkin's life a lot easier. Smith, the 6'3" 200 pound NFL prototype cornerback, has the ability to be the best corner in the Big 12.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Early money was on DE Nick Kasa and DT Edward Nuckols due to the inexperience on the defensive line but with Kasa partially tearing his MCL and Nuckols failing to academically qualify, the Buffs will have to look elsewhere for immediate help. The most logical choice is now DT Nate Bonsu. The 6'1" 295 pound Allen, Texas product may just be forced into some early action.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE DEFENSE: Linebacker and Cornerback. Ask Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart about how strong the linebacker group is. Mohler and Smart were both starters a year ago and all conference awarded players. This year, they might be battling for one spot; and the Buffs may even add another linebacker position to run the 3 - 4. Marcus Burton impressed this offseason as did Michael Sipili, who will be competing for the middle linebacker job. Throw in the young but physically gifted Douglas Rippy and the potential of B.J. Beatty and this may be the deepest position on the Buffs team. And we didn't even mention Jon Major, a heavily recruited player from Colorado who tore his ACL last season as a true freshman.

A similar story at cornerback with 2007 starter Ben Burney returning to team up with Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith, all of whom started at least one game in 2008. Who starts against Colorado State will be fun to watch.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE DEFENSE: Defensive line, based purely on inexperience, not poor past performance. Gone are three seniors from a year ago and in are unproven players like DT Curtis Cunningham, DE Conrad Obi, DE Marquez Herrod, DT Eugene Goree, DT Tyler Sale, DT Will Pericak, DE Forrest West and DT Nate Bonsu. Nick Kasa may be in the mix after he recovers from the partial MCL tear.

Marquez Herrod will probably be a starter at defensive end but after that, it's anyone's guess. Curtis Cunningham played as a true freshman last season and made a few plays but he is still considered raw.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Last year's special team's performance was abysmal and should be a big point of emphasis this season if the Buffs' plan to be a player in the North. The departure of Josh Smith leaves a hole in the return game and 1,987 all purpose yards lost. The top candidates to fill the return role are Jason Espinoza, Rodney Stewart, Andre Simmons and Darrell Scott. K Aric Goodman returns, but he was just 5 for 14 on field goal attempts last season. The Buffs also return P Matt DiLallo who averaged 40.49 yards/punt last season while splitting time with Tom Suazo.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN AND QUICK HIT PREDICTIONS

Sept 5^th - Colorado St. Rams: The rivalry game is in Boulder, not in Denver, giving the Buffs a home field advantage. CSU will be breaking in a new quarterback and looks to have a weak front seven returning on defense. If CSU can get any quarterback play, it could be a dangerous game but expect the Buffs to load the box on defense. Prediction: W (1-0)
Sept 11^th - @ Toledo Rockets: the proverbial trap game with only five days rest. It is a Friday night game on the road against a team with a new coach; yes, a little scary. Like Colorado State, Toledo returns a lot of offensive line experience. Couple all of that with the dismal road record under Dan Hawkins (only 2 wins in three years) and the Buffs could be in more trouble than we would like to believe. That being said, Colorado has the more talented team and should win by double digits. Prediction: W (2-0)
Sept 19^th - Wyoming Cowboys: If the Buffs can start 2 - 0, they will have a nice eight day rest before hosting Wyoming at home who has little offensive identity even though former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave Christensen takes over the helm as new coach. Missouri has used Colorado as its punching bag the past two years but the Wyoming offense won't resemble Chase Coffman, Chase Daniel, Derrick Washington and Jeremy Maclin. Buffs need to win this one big. Prediction: W (3-0)
Oct 1^st - @West Virginia Mountaineers: This is a coin toss game. Both teams have 12 days to prepare with West Virginia coming off a tough game at Auburn the week before. West Virginia will be favored by 3 - 7 points so this is certainly a winnable game but on a Thursday night in Morgantown with the Buffs past lack of success on the road, I see a 3 - 1 start. Ask me again after week 2. Prediction: L (3-1)
Oct 10^th - @ Texas Longhorns: There are two "more than likely" road losses on the schedule which makes Dan Hawkins' "10 win expectation, not a guarantee" phrase possible. This is one of those games. Prediction: L (3-2)
Oct 17^th - Kansas Jayhawks: The Buffs should have three home games circled this year; Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. Three games that will dictate the degree of success in 2009. Win 2 or 3 of these games, expect Colorado football to be playing in strong bowl game. Lose all three, Colorado may once again be home for the holidays once again. Kansas QB Todd Reesing has been a Buff killer and the Jayhawks are expected to be a top 25 team when it is all said and done. Kansas has to replace some offensive linemen and linebackers so the Buffs should be in the game. Prediction: L (3-3)
Oct 24^th - @ Kansas St. Wildcats: Coming off three losses, this is a trap game that should be a Buff win. At 3 - 3, this game's outcome could determine if CU goes on to a winning record in the last half of the season or underachieves. If this is truly the year that we see changes in Boulder, Dan Hawkins' team should go into Manhattan and win. Since it is the offseason, let's be optimistic. Prediction: W (4-3)
Oct 31^st - Missouri Tigers: Halloween day in Boulder should be a wild scene. Mizzou could come into this game with a 3 - 4 record with both teams will have a lot riding on the game. The Buffs will have revenge on their mind after being utterly embarrassed the past two years losing by a combined score of 113 - 10. Many of the pieces from those two games are gone from Columbia and while Missouri fans are pushing the "Blaine Gabbert for Heisman" campaign already, this is the year for revenge. And one other thing, Missouri returns the fewest starters from a year ago in the Big 12 along with Nebraska Prediction: W (5-3)
Nov 7^th - Texas A&M Aggies: I believe most Colorado fans would take 5 - 3 at this point in the year considering Texas A&M and Iowa State are still on the schedule with Nebraska being an important swing game. Most will admit Colorado should have beaten A&M a year ago in College Station outplaying them for all but 5 or so minutes of that game. At home in Folsom, the Buffs should be on a roll coming off two wins. Could be a let down candidate if they don't respond after a big Missouri victory but this team is more experienced than prior teams. Prediction: W (6-3)
Nov 14^th - @ Iowa St. Cyclones: Last time the Buffs went to Ames, they laid an egg which once again makes predicting any road games as a win a risky prospect. Trust me, Buff fans won't be laying a lot of action on the first road game to Toledo. Hawkins will remind his team of how poorly they played a year ago at Folsom and the bad loss two years ago. Colorado has a chance to win four in a row heading into the last two weeks of the season. Prediction: W (7-3)
Nov 19^th - @ Oklahoma St. Cowboys: Even if the Buffs did have a full week's rest, this would be a loss but on the road with a short week against a top 10 contender, the Buffs' win streak ends here. Prediction: L (7-4)
Nov 27^th - Nebraska Cornhuskers: Eight wins sounds like paradise with the potential for nine in a bowl game. The Buffs will get more rest than the Huskers due to playing on a Thursday night against Oklahoma State and the Huskers have to travel to Boulder. Right now, this game is a toss-up but it is hard for me to see this Buffs team finishing with eight wins and it is equally hard to see the Huskers as a top 25 team. That being said, seven wins was my number for the Buffs all along. Eight is do-able as you can tell, nine is a stretch. You can also make a case for five or six wins. Prediction: L (7-5)

SB NATION BIG 12 BLOGGER'S ROUNDTABLE Q&A

1) Predicted Finish

Big 12 North

Kansas

Nebraska

Colorado

Missouri

Kansas State

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Oklahoma

Texas

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Texas Tech

Texas A&M

2) Who wins the Big 12 North?

~~Colorado Buffaloes Nebraska Cornhuskers~~ The Kansas Jayhawks...who knows, its wide open? Go get'em Buffs!

3) Who wins the Big 12 South?

The Oklahoma Sooners

4) How many Big 12 teams will be bowl eligible?

7 - Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State

5) Which conference team do you think will show the most improvement from last season (in record only)?

Baylor

6) Who is your Non-QB conference player of the year?

DL Gerald McCoy

7) Do you believe any Big 12 coaches will be gone (fired or hired elsewhere) after this season?

The ones I could see happening are Coach Hawk or Mike Gundy (but only with 5 wins or less and that won't happen for either.

8) What would you prefer as the Big 12's 3rd "best" bowl game? The Holiday or Alamo Bowl?

Holiday - San Diego is better than San Antonio in every way imaginable

9) Better D-Lineman, Suh or McCoy?

Gerald McCoy

10) Better Wide Receiver, Bryant or Briscoe?

Dez Bryant

11) Predict the worst non-conference loss (an upset) that the Big 12 will suffer.

Have to say Nevada upsetting Mizzou.

12) Predict the MNC participants and champion.

Florida def. Penn State (an embarrassment of a schedule)

Poll

What is your regular season win prediction for the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009?

10 wins +: Gotta go with Coach Hawkins, he set the bar, anything less would be a disappointment

18 votes

8 - 9 wins: very solid year, outside chance at the Big 12 North, top tier bowl game

185 votes

7 wins: an improvement, still too many holes to challenge for a North title but still bowling

86 votes

6 wins: squeak into a bowl game but with an empty feeling, still have a ways to go to be competitive each week

18 votes

5 or less wins: not enough playmakers, too many holes, more of the same in Boulder. 2010 here we come

9 votes

316 votes | Poll has closed

'Twas the Night Before Camp

irish1611 — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:13:09 -0000

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At last, let the journey begin. Finally, no more to talk about than "10 wins, no excuses," preseason rankings, and trying to rationalize the experience of your second team quarterback divided by the factor of 3 to figure out upcoming win potential. It's tough trying to get through the minutia, rehashing on subjects that never seem to go away. Last year it was the off-the-field issues, the year before was the "intramurals" comment and we all know what the offseason of 2009 will be famous for. Hopefully, 2010's offseason will be known for the talk about the resurrection of the Colorado Buffaloes football program.

Hopefully, the 2009 season is about quieting the snickering and the under-the-breath-laughing that most of the nation is displaying towards the "I didn't guarantee 10 wins" by coach Hawkins.

Boy is it good to have actual football back.

Everyone has things they hope to hear about coming out of camp that will make them feel better about the upcoming season, especially this year, as pivotal as it is surrounded by the perpetual statement : "if." The time to answer the "ifs" starts tomorrow!

There are many things to be excited about as camp kicks off but here are five that should get the juices flowing

-The Emergence of a new No. 1 - Yep, it looks like Andre Simmons might be wearing the number 1 this season based on the most recent release of the 2009 roster. Let's hope that it actually comes to fruition. In somewhat of a heroic effort to finish nine classes this spring and summer just to possibly qualify, Andre Simmons will try to pull off another amazing feat to get into "playing shape" and digest the playbook in one month to become a key playmaker. Talk about a whirlwind last few months for Simmons who probably had no idea what he was in for when he committed to the Buffs on February 4^th. I am excited to see the big #1 out there, standing 6'3" weighing in at 210 pounds, showing off his 4.46...something that trumps any Buffs' receiver by almost two tenths of a second. Whether he will be ready to make an immediate impact from week one or even week four against West Virginia remains to be seen but there is excitement around the prospects of such an impact. Still with all the hoopla about Simmons, the real key to gain offensive balance will be the growth of Markques Simas as a true number 1 receiver. Similar to Andre Simmons, Simas has never played in a division one game so the Buffs are counting on a lot of production from the unknown. That being said, the unknowns have talent and the potential to be the best duo at receiver the Buffs have had in a while.

-Eric Kiesau at the Helm - 95^th, 72^nd, 102^nd...that has been the Buffs' total offense ranking the last three years. With the departure of former offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich to Oregon in the offseason and the promotion of the popular Eric Kiesau, Buff fans are hoping that the new man in charge can maximize the strengths of the offense. The good news is that the pieces seem to be in a better place than they ever were under Helfrich and let's face it, the numbers can't get much worse. I am excited to see if Kiesau can pump some life into the offense, something he has already done on the recruiting front. Dan Hawkins takes over Kiesau's wide receiver duties with Hawkins stating that Kiesau will be given total autonomy on the X's and O's. It will be fun to watch the impact Hawkins has on one of the biggest question mark positions and at the same time, the game plans Kiesau comes up with.

-One, Two, Three, Four... That's A Stable - the Buffs seem to have four running backs who are all capable of carrying the load. Of course the headliner is Darrell Scott who is still the player most fans will go and see this fall. #2 will be a different player than people will remember seeing last fall. Gone is the 230 pound back and supposedly in is the 210 pound speedster that still has the power that we saw last fall. The newest roster lists Scott at a surprising 225 pounds, though, which is a surprise if it is true due to the statements from many parties, including himself, saying Scott's best playing weight is in the 210 range. Don't forget about Rodney Stewart who is still playing the underdog role after outplaying Darrell Scott a year ago and leading the Buffs in rushing. Stewart and Scott should have a great battle all camp and I think running backs coach Darian Hagan loves pinning the players against each other to breed competition. Don't forget about Demetrius Sumler, who led the Buffs in rushing touchdowns last year, and Brian Lockridge, whose speed quickly catches the eye. Running back drills ought to be highly competitive this fall.

-The Newbies - One of the best things about the first few days of camp is getting a look at the newcomers. Most of us have had to rely on the scouting services' height and weight measurements, 3 minute YouTube highlights and MaxPreps statistics. Yeah, Edward Nuckols, the highly rated defensive tackle from California, didn't qualify but there are still plenty of other players that everyone should get a look at to see if they pass the eyeball test. Nick Kasa, the defensive end from Colorado, should bring in a crowd of onlookers as the Buffs badly need the 6'7" pass rusher to get to the quarterback, preferably in year one. All of the neophytes will be good to see out there but I am especially excited to see Kasa, Forrest West, Terdema Ussery, Nate Bonsu and Liloa Nobriga. Also, I have heard not many newcomers have impressed more this summer than CB Deji Olatoye, the lowest rated recruit in last year's class but possess great athleticism and measurables. Oh yeah, make sure you watch out for that 6'5" quarterback as well.

-Position Battles Galore - There are probably only a handful of players who have starting jobs locked up: OG Ryan Miller, OT Nate Solder, C Mike Iltis, OT Bryce Givens, S Anthony Perkins, P Matt DiLallo, S Patrick Mahnke, FB Jake Behrens and possibly CB Jimmy Smith. Other than that, let the battles begin. Running backs & the quarterback spot will get the most attention this fall but to me, the most exciting is at linebacker. Throw in a bunch of talented players, the possible need for a 3 - 4 defense and coach Brian Cabral's history of producing great units and you have, to me, one of the more intriguing battles. Returning starters Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart were thought to be shoe-ins for a repeat on top of the depth chart but in spring ball, both were in deep competition with Douglas Rippy, B.J. Beatty, Marcus Burton and Michael Sipili. Throw in a healthy Jon Major from the 2008 recruiting class and the Buffs look to have seven players who will be fighting for the three to four spots. Plus, who knows what Forrest West (3 - 4 purposes), Derrick Webb and Liloa Nobriga have to offer. Marcus Burton was lights out in spring ball, showing great range and putting up impressive workout numbers. Who would have thought the 260 pounder would be the fastest backer?

Poll

What position battle are you most excited to see play out this fall?

Quarterback

38 votes

Wide Receiver

59 votes

Linebacker

18 votes

Running Back

77 votes

Defensive Line

25 votes

217 votes | Poll has closed

Monday Buff Bites - Counting Down the Days Until Fall Ball

irish1611 — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 15:25:35 -0000

We are getting closer...really close to the start of it all. In one of the more important seasons in recent memory for the future of Buff football, there is a heightened sense of anticipation. Like Kyle Ringo said in his blog posting this week, no one is quite sure on the Buffs (except for Dan Hawkins) which can be a scary proposition but also an exciting one if the team can break through and surprise on a national level. Those are the types of thoughts you can have in August, everyone is 0 - 0 and everyone can dream.

Cabral expects LBs to be strength on Buffs' defense - Boulder Daily Camera
Brian Cabral, linebacker coach of the Colorado Buffaloes, has a good feeling about this year's linebacker corp. Cabral was not afraid to put some pressure on his group saying that they must compensate for the youth on defensive line while still being productive. I can't wait to watch the defensive fronts this year. All we have heard about was how the defense is going to be creative, establish mismatches and be multiple. I think if the Buffs can find someone to patrol the middle on the defensive line, the 3 - 4 can be very successful with B.J. Beatty and others using their great rush end ability:

"We should be one of the strengths in our defense," Cabral said. "We have to understand the problem. We have to understand the issues and we have to understand our responsibility to make that better. "So my theme going in with my linebackers is, 'Make them right' regardless of what they do. We're going to play off of them and we're going to make the defense right. The onus is on us to adjust, and, at times, cover up the mistakes of a young defensive line."

Scout.com: 2009 Preseason Rankings - No. 31 to 40
Scout.com ranked the Colorado Buffaloes #39 in their most recent countdown. The Nebraska Cornhuskers, that team that is supposed to runaway with the Big 12 North championship, ranked 38th in CFN's countdown.

39. Colorado - Preview | Offense | Defense | Depth Chart Relative Strengths: Running Back, Secondary Relative Weaknesses: Receiver, Defensive Line What to watch for on offense: Darrell Scott. Yeah, this is what recruitniks have been waiting for. Scott was the crown jewel of the 2008 recruiting class as the Buffs were able to steal him away from Texas. Minor injuries, lack of conditioning, and the emergence of other backs led to a disappointing first year, but that has all changed going into this season. He's 202 pounds, has 4% body fat, and he has looked like the NFL-bound total package who can carry the offense through the rough patches. What to watch for on defense: Part 3-4, part 4-3. The Buffs will try to get more out of a front four that has decent size on the outside, but might be better if the ends were used in a three-man front. The strength of the team, other than running back, is at linebacker where Jeff Smart, Marcus Burton, Shaun Mohler, Michael Sipili, and B.J. Beatty are all good enough to start. The coaching staff will try to get as many linebackers on the field as possible to combat spread offenses, and as the season goes on the defense, which wasn't bad last year, should have some big moments and some great games thanks to the back eight.

Hawkins expecting success despite early Colorado struggles - Big 12 - ESPN
Tim Griffin is giving the Buffs some good love recently, claiming the Buffs are his darkhorse team to win the North:

The Buffaloes are my dark-horse team in the North Division. Hardly anybody is talking about this with most of the early interest centered on Kansas and Nebraska. But Colorado's schedule and underrated talent might keep them in the North Division title chase longer than most might think.

Scout.com: 2009 CFN All-Redshirt Freshman Team - Defense
Buffs LB Doug Rippy was dubbed by College Football News as a preseason All-Redshirt Freshman Candidate:

LB Douglas Rippy, Colorado – The Buffaloes traveled all the way to Ohio to ink Rippy, and they’re thrilled they did. After playing well on the scout team and improving his strength, he emerged this spring as a starter at one of the outside spots. At 6-1 and 230 pounds, he plays with good pad level and has already displayed the instincts and sure-tackling of a more seasoned player. He should get plenty of chances to make plays and begin building a resume this fall.

A lot more links after the jump...

Scout.com: 2009 CFN All-Redshirt Freshman Team
Buffs OL Bryce Givens was also named to College Football News' All Redshirt Offensive Team:

OT Bryce Givens, Colorado – It hasn’t taken Givens very long to show why he was one of the most coveted tackles of 2008. At 6-6 and 275 pounds, he may not be at his ideal fighting weight quite yet, but he’s headed in the right direction and has the reach and footwork to excel in his debut as the starting right tackle. Already a knee-bender, he’s been well-coached up to this point and has the proper fundamentals to eventually become a dominant pass blocker.

The Longmont Times-Call - 10 CU Players To Watch This Year

The Score with Armstrong and Shapiro " Cody Hawkins Interview 7-30-09
Colorado Buffaloes starting QB Cody Hawkins joins The Score with Armstrong and Shapiro to talk about the upcoming football season. Also Cody talks about what happened to his dad, head coach Dan Hawkins and the recent surgery that he had to remove a . . . well click to find out!

Hawk's Radio Show Moving To Boulder Draft House - CUBuffs.com—Official Athletics Web site of the University of Colorado

University of Colorado football coach Dan Hawkins’ radio show has moved to a new location for the 2009 season – the Boulder Draft House. Buff fans can catch up with Coach Hawk alongside 850 KOA’s Mark Johnson and Larry Zimmer for the Dan Hawkins Show live every Wednesday at 7 p.m. at the new Boulder Draft House, located at 2027 13th Street, less than a block off of Boulder’s world famous Pearl Street Mall. The first show is scheduled for Wednesday, September 2, the Wednesday prior to the Colorado-Colorado State game.

JUCOs to Watch in 2009 - AthlonSports.com
Athlon Sports states that WR Andre Simmons is a JUCO transfer to watch in '09:

Andre Simmons, Colorado - With Josh Smith transferring, the Buffaloes are desperately seeking help in the receiving corps. At 6-foot-3, Simmons should be in contention for a starting spot and could be the big weapon for Cody Hawkins or Tyler Hansen, as they desperately need to get the passing game going.

A look ahead: Colorado football - The Denver Post

Three things to watch 1. Quarterback controversy? As a true freshman, Tyler Hansen stole the starting job from Cody Hawkins last season. But following spring drills, coaches said that Hawkins had a slight edge. Can Hansen, a better athlete who sometimes lacks consistency and poise, show enough in August camp to make it a bona fide battle? 2. Calling on defensive linemen. Three of last year's starters, George Hypolite, Brandon Nicolas and Maurice Lucas, are gone, leaving end Marquez Herrod to look for help. Sophomore Curtis Cunningham is the leader for one tackle slot. But defensive line coach Romeo Bandison will have to sift through a half-dozen other candidates. 3. Which new wideouts will emerge? In addition to junior-college transfer Andre Simmons and incoming freshmen Jarrod Darden and Terdema Ussery, others new to the fray include sophomore Markques Simas and senior Kevin Moyd, a running back expected to get an audition at receiver. With Josh Smith leaving for UCLA, there's not much experience behind junior Scotty McKnight.

Welcome to My World: Colorado's Riar Geer | NewsOK.com
Colorado tight end Riar Geer has been a starter for the Buffaloes since his redshirt freshman season. The 6-4, 250-pound senior spoke with The Oklahoman's Brandon Chatmon about playing at Nebraska, playing for Dan Hawkins and the fact "It's Division I football, it ain't intramurals!":

Buffs' Solder: 6-feet-9, 305 . . . and counting - The Denver Post
The Denver Post has a good article on the enormous but athletically gifted Nate Solder.

Polling the Big 12: Who has the best and worst mascots? | NewsOK.com

The Oklahoman's Jake Trotter polled 29 of the 38 players at Big 12 Media Days, including at least one from each school. These are their answers. Who has the best mascot? Ralphie (Colorado), 25% Bevo (Texas), 20% Joy and Lady (Baylor), 15% Pistol Pete (Oklahoma State), 10% Herbie Husker and Lil' Red (Nebraska), 10% Other receiving votes: Cy (Iowa State), Big Jay and Baby Jay (Kansas), Truman the Tiger (Missouri), Masked Rider (Texas Tech) Quotable: "It's definitely Ralphie. No one else I know has a buffalo." — a Big 12 North defensive player Quotable II: "They actually have a live bear sitting in the end zone," — a Big 12 North offensive player

The Quad Countdown: No. 32 Kansas - The Quad Blog - NYTimes.com
The Quad, the NY Times blog, thinks Kansas will finish outside of the top 25.

"Kansas will be very good, but until the team starts beating the best the Big 12 has to offer, it will remain out of title contention."

Buffs taking studies seriously - Boulder Daily Camera
"The Colorado football program struggled on the field last fall to a 5-7 record, but it improved in the classroom, finishing the semester with a 2.545 GPA, the best since the department began tracking team GPA in 1996."

Big 12 logjam: A team-by-team breakdown as season closes in - USATODAY.com

Colorado: The Buffaloes enter year three of the Dan Hawkins era with a sense of urgency. The Buffs seemed to have turned a corner last season by starting off the season 3-0, but went 2-7 the rest of the way floundering to a 5-7 finish. Junior Cody Hawkins returns for his third season under center, feeling pressure to improve an offense that ranked last in the Big 12 in points a game last season at just over 20. The Buffaloes win the prize for scheduling. The Buffaloes play their annual rivalry game against Colorado State and travel east to play West Virginia. Key game — Nov. 27, Nebraska: The Buffaloes went into last year's game against the Huskers with a chance to be bowl eligible and lost. They might be in the same predicament this season.

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Yesterday we took at look at what really was an impressively bad offense that Colorado put on the field in 2008. That the Buffs came within a game of bowl eligibility must speak volumes of their defense, right?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 110.1 (#33)
Success Rate+: 105.3 (#45)
PPP+: 116.1 (#34)

Standard Downs S&P+: 108.6 (#36)
Passing Downs S&P+: 124.0 (#15)

Redzone S&P+: 109.5 (#37)

Q1 S&P+: 107.0 (#43)
Q2 S&P+: 122.7 (#20)
Q3 S&P+: 98.4 (#62)
Q4 S&P+: 123.1 (#15)

1st Down S&P+: 108.7 (#37)
2nd Down S&P+: 102.3 (#52)
3rd Down S&P+: 135.5 (#8)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 103.1 (#56)
Rushing SR+: 102.6 (#53)
Rushing PPP+: 103.8 (#55)

Standard Downs: 101.7 (#58)
Passing Downs: 104.4 (#57)

Redzone: 96.2 (#76)

Line Yards+: 98.3 (#64)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.3 (#18)
Passing SR+: 107.1 (#34)
Passing PPP+: 125.0 (#18)

Standard Downs: 116.0 (#14)
Passing Downs: 129.9 (#15)

Redzone: 129.8 (#13)

Adj. Sack Rate: 5.9% (#61)

While the offense was almost universally bad in every category, the defense was a lot more interesting to analyze--quite a few ups and downs.

They were decent on Standard Downs and excellent on Passing Downs. When I see a team better on Passing Downs, I assume that their LB corps must be pretty good at blitzing, but that's a bit of a generalization.
This is reflected in the per-down numbers as well--they were mediocre on 2nd downs and great on 3rd downs.
Their best quarter: Q4. Makes sense if you think about it. A) They lost four games by 16 points or more, and in "non-close" situations, the trailing team usually has the advantage while the leading team is running the ball and killing the clock. B) When they were in close games down the stretch, they usually thrived. As mentioned yesterday, they were 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and while that ignores the Nebraska game--they were leading by one with two minutes left before Nebraska scored a quick 10 points that deceptively boosted the scoring margin--clearly they were still pretty good when the game was close.
While their success rates (efficiency) and PPP (explosiveness) were roughly the same in rushing defense, Colorado did see a decent split between their passing defense success rates (34th) and PPP (18th). That usually suggests relatively loose coverage and good tackling--you can get efficient, short gains against them, but you're not necessarily going to burn them deep a lot.
Neither line play measure was particularly impressive.

Defensive Line

Herrod (#90) is about the only returner who has made any plays whatsoever.

2008 Unit Ranking: #58 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Marquez Herrod (6'2, 265, Jr.)
DT Eugene Goree (6'1, 295, So.)
DT Taj Kaynor (6'5, 265, Sr.)
DE Conrad Obi (6'3, 265, So.)
DT Curtis Cunningham (6'1, 275, So.)
DE Lagrone Shields (6'3, 270, So.)
DT Will Pericak (6'4, 265, RSFr.)
DE Tony Poremba (6'1, 230, So.)

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the list above combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

Linebackers

Smart (#45)

2008 Unit Ranking: #36 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jeff Smart (6'0, 220, Sr.)
Shaun Mohler (6'3, 220, Sr.)
BJ Beatty (6'2, 220, Jr.)
Doug Rippy (6'1, 230, RSFr.)
Michael Sipili (6'1, 240, Jr.)
Jon Major (6'2, 225, RSFr.)
Marcus Burton (6'0, 260, Sr.)

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Secondary

Mighty mite Cha'pelle Brown is a rock-solid corner.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Cha'pelle Brown (5'7, 170, Sr.)
CB Jimmy Smith (6'2, 200, Jr.)
S Anthony Perkins (5'10, 200, So.)
S Patrick Mahnke (6'1, 205, So.)
CB Benjamin Burney (5'11, 190, Sr.)
CB Jalil Brown (6'1, 205, Jr.)
S Travis Sandersfeld (6'0, 205, So.)
S Ray Polk (6'1, 190, RSFr.)

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

Special Teams

Aric Goodman MUST improve in 2009.

2008 Unit Rankings: #80 Net Punting, #56 Punt Returns, #38 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Aric Goodman (5'10, 185, Jr.) - 30-for-31 PAT, 5-for-14 FG
P Matt DiLallo (6'1, 200, Sr.) - 34.0 Net Avg
KR - Rodney Stewart (5'7, 170, So.)
PR - Jason Espinoza (5'8, 175, So.)

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? I could probably manage to go about 2- or 3-for-14*, so he was only about six points better than me as a kicker. He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

* Okay, maybe 1-for-14. Fine, 0-for-14. I'd have kicked every ball directly into the ass of a lineman seven yards ahead of me.

Meanwhile, here's where Josh Smith's loss could possibly hit the hardest. Again, Smith wasn't all-conference material or anything, but while he averaged a decent 13.3 yards per catch (best among CU receivers), he was quite good in the return game, averaging 10.4 yards per punt return (point of reference: Jeremy Maclin averaged 11.0) and 25.5 per kick return (Maclin: 24.0) with 1 TD. Assuming he doesn't get coerced into staying in Boulder, then it looks like the early leaders to replace him are Rodney Stewart at KR and Jason Espinoza at PR. I have nothing valuable about whether they're any good at returning kicks, so instead I'll just point out that they're very little. So there you go.

Summary

As I mentioned in yesterday's intro, I'm trying as hard as I can not to be biased about Colorado. I think they're young enough that they really could be solid in 2010 and maybe 2011, but it's really annoying me that it appears writers are once again jumping the gun too early on them, picking them as a North sleeper for what I think is the fourth straight year. They've got a solid-not-flashy LB corps and potentially very good secondary. They've also got a lot of unproven potential at RB and on the O-line. But that's about it. They have nothing proven at WR or on the D-line, and unfortunately I think Cody Hawkins has proven a bit too much at QB. They would be better served floating under the radar for another year and figuring out what they have, particularly at WR. But instead, people are once again ranking them in the Top 40 and calling them a sleeper, meaning they'll be expected to produce a little earlier than I think they're capable of producing. Not that I'm losing sleep over these preseason picks or anything, but it's not fair to Colorado to expect anything major from them just yet--I've been wrong plenty of times before, but I think they're still a year away.

---

Projections on Friday. And I'm warning you now--as down as I appear to be on CU, the BTBS projections are infinitely more down on them. Shockingly down on them...to the point where I almost want to stick up for them a bit.

Current Colorado Buffaloes' Defensive and Special Teams Roster

irish1611 — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 19:38:30 -0000

Following our offensive roster chart, below is the 2009 Colorado Buffaloes' defensive and special team players. Compared to the offensive piece, this chart has a little more distribution between years of each position as well as depth oming down the 2010 pipeline unlike tight end and fullback on the offensive side of the ball.

Position		SENIORS	JUNIORS	SOPHOMORES	FRESHMEN	INCOMING Fr
DT		Taj Kaynor	Eric Lawson	C Cunningham	Will Pericak	Nate Bonsu
DT		Tyler Sale*	Eric Lawson	Eugene Goree	Will Pericak	Edward Nuckols
Sch	7	1	1	2	1	2
NSch	1	1
DE			M Herrod	Kevin Cooney*	Nick O'Neill*	Nick Kasa
			Joe Silipo*	David Goldberg*		J. Forrest West
				Conrad Obi		Sc Fernandez*
				Tony Poremba*
				Lagrone Shields
Sch	5		1	2		2
NSch	6		1	3	1	1
LB		Marcus Burton	Michael Sipili	Tyler Ahles	Jon Major	Liloa Nobriga
		Shaun Mohler	B.J. Beatty	*Brandon Gouin	Doug Rippy	Derrick Webb
		Jeff Smart		*Zackary Farley	*Guy Sergent	Geoff Sissom*
		*Bryan Stengel		Josh Hartigan
Sch	11	3	2	2	2	2
NSch	5	1		2	1	1
CB		Cha Brown	Jalil Brown	Jon Hawkins	Stephen Hicks	Deji Olatoye
		Ben Burney	Jimmy Smith	*Arthur Jaffee	Paul Vigo	Cody McAninch*
				Anthony Wright
Sch	9	2	2	2	2	1
NSch	2			1		1
S			*Bret Smith	Patrick Mahnke	Vince Ewing	Parker Orms
				*Erik Manarino	Ray Polk
				*Matt Meyer
				Anthony Perkins
				*T Sandersfeld
Sch	5			2	2	1
NSch	4		1	3		0
K			Aric Goodman	Jameson Davis		Z Grossnickle
P		Matt DiLallo
SN		J Drescher	Austin Bisnow
Sch	5	2	1	1		1
NSch	1	0	1
DEFENSIVE AND SPECIAL TEAMS TOTAL
Sch	42	8	7	11	7	9
NSch	19	2	3	9	2	3
Total	61	10	10	20	9	12
TEAM TOTAL
Sch	78	12	14	24	10	18
NSch	37	5	5	13	5	9
Total	115	17	19	37	15	27
*italics - transfer / - non-scholarship player**

The linebacking and cornerback spots are the class of the defense. The Buffs will have solid depth for many years at linebacker, assuming Jon Major recovers from his ACL injury and Doug Rippy continues to develop. I would expect the Buffs to take a couple more 'backers in the 2010 class to keep the continuity going. The linebacking depth is exactly what you want as a coach when you look at your group of players; a great mix of experience as well as young talent who are pushing the veterans. As for cornerback, the next two years look very solid as long as Jimmy Smith doesn't jump for the NFL early. I think he is still in need of all four years of college but if he has the year that I expect him to have, he may be tempted by the NFL scouts who would be drooling over a sub 4.5, 6'3" physical cornerback. After the next two years, the Buffs will need to get help at corner as you will be looking at all new starters after 2010 with not much known about the players behind the juniors and seniors.

The rest of the defensive positions, youth prevails. There are only three scholarship upperclassmen at defensive line and safety. The Buffs are young at safety with potential starters Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins both sophomores but they gained valuable experience as freshmen. Defensive line continues to be the main question mark on the defense mostly because we don't know what we are going to get from the underclassmen, who will be forced to play this year. Guys like Eugene Goree, Conrad Obi, Lagrone Shields, Curtis Cunningham, Nick Kasa, Edward Nuckols, Nate Bonsu, Will Pericak, Lagrone Sheilds, etc. haven't showed us a lot because they are all first or second year players. They might be great but the doubt surrouding them is one reasons many Buff fans wonder if the team will turn the corner and get to that 8+ win mark.

On special teams, the Buffs had to take a kicker in the 2009 class in Zach Grossnickle after the dismal performance last year. Grossnickle (both a placekicker and punter) may technically be the only punter on the team after this season with starter Matt DiLallo graduating. Special teams is another part of the equation that most Buff fans forget about but shouldn't in evaluating the possible success next year. You name it, it went wrong in 2008 so improved play is a must.

Spring Recap - Linebackers

irish1611 — Wed, 27 May 2009 21:34:35 -0000

View full size photo »

Pre-Spring Thoughts:

Coming into spring ball, the Buffs only had to replace one linebacker in Brad Jones. Not an easy task considering Jones was the only Buff selected in the 2009 NFL draft but most importantly, Jones was the Buffs only consistent pass rusher from a year ago. Couple that with an inexperienced defensive line, many think getting to the opposition's quarterback will be the main reason the Buffs won't be able to take the next step and win the Big 12 North. Jones was 5^th in tackles from a year ago with 78 total (3^rd among the linebackers), lead the team in sacks (7), TFL (7) and quarterback pressures (14).

Although Jones the pass rusher will be hard to replace, the initial thought going into camp was the linebacker positions would be one of the deepest on the team with a healthy mix of experience and youth. The experienced portion begins with returning starters; MLB Jeff Smart and OLB Shaun Mohler, who finished first and second, respectively, in total tackles in 2008. Mohler started the year as a sub but quickly worked his way into the starting lineup and was selected Honorable Mention in the Big 12 by the AP. Smart was named Second Team All-Big 12 by the AP in '08, as he led the Buffs with 118 tackles, good for fourth in the Big 12. Most Buff fans would have probably slotted these two players in the starting linebacker spot for 2009 and been perfectly content.

Next comes an interesting trio of veterans in B.J. Beatty, Michael Sipili and Marcus Burton. BJ Beatty may be able to fill "the Brad Jones role" in 2009 as he was often a rush end last year. Beatty's propensity to make plays and stand out makes him a player that will be hard to keep off the field. He was slowed by injury at the beginning of 2008 but with him healthy, he was expected to be a leading candidate for a starting spot this spring. Sipili and Burton were sort of unknowns coming into spring. They are bigger, "Levon Kirkland" style linebackers. Many thought Sipili might be the next great linebacker at Colorado but with off the field problems and injuries, Sipili never hit full stride in '08. With Mohler and Smart both gone in 2010, Sipili, along with Beatty, will be in a position to play a big role in the defense for the next two years if he can show consistency. Same desire to see consistency would also describe senior MLB Marcus Burton. You look at this guy from the sideline and you see a big athlete who passes the eye test. He wasn't really a factor in 2008 and for the most part, thought we would have to wait and see after spring as to what role he will play in '09. Most figured that Beatty would emerge as the Brad Jones replacement and the starting three linebackers would be set with a few of the younger guys challenging for time.

Then comes the youth and the guys that get people excited about the future of Buff linebacking: Jon Major, Doug Rippy and Lynn Katoa. All three redshirted last year with Major and Katoa being highly touted recruits and Rippy having the "most ready college body" of the trio. Major's freshman campaign was cut short by a torn ACL in fall camp while Lynn Katoa ran into trouble off-the-field and in the classroom. We knew going into camp that Major was going to be very limited if not out this spring as he was still recovering from the ACL injury. As for Lynn, rumors were swirling before camp, whether he would ever play a down for the Buffs. He was once again held out of spring practice for academic reasons and at one time, Natalie Meisler of the Denver Post had a story that LB coach Brian Cabral confirmed Katoa wouldn't return to the team. Katoa is still on the roster and for good reason. Other than being a talent, one theory is that the Buffs need Katoa to stay with the program to avoid hurting their APR score, an NCAA metric that tracks a program's academic achievement. The Buffs are flirting with running into NCAA sanctions which could cost them as many as five scholarships in the upcoming year or two. Katoa's potential departure would almost make that sanction a certainty. Who knows what the real story is but the team has even more incentive to get him on. Most of the optimism about the 2008 linebacker class was subdued as only Doug Rippy would be able to fully showcase his talent this spring.

As for the scheme, it was reasonable to think that the Buffs might implement a 3 - 4 this season considering the depth at linebacker and the unknown of the down linemen. In principle, this is the right direction but last year when the Buffs brought in an extra linebacker or defensive back, the defensive staff would rarely bring extra pressure from the back eight. Many remember Todd Reesing running around in the pocket waiting for options to open up down field. Along with the question of who will be the other one or two starters, the aggressiveness of this unit and the scheme Ron Collins implements was another pressing issue.

Post Spring Thoughts:

Answering the second question first, Ron Collins had this statement in the Boulder Daily Camera early in spring with my commentary:

Two things that we like to hear around here regarding the defense is the combination of "3-4" and "aggressive." Kyle Ringo of the BDC notes that defensive coordinator Ron Collins is all about getting his 11 best players on the field and if that means playing the 3-4 exclusively, so be it. Fine with me as long as the word "aggressive" is attached to it.

The defense was aggressive and it was multiple from what I saw in practice. He was not kidding about playing the best 11. The sets ranged from 3 - 4, 4 - 3, 3 - 3 - 5 with varying blitz packages that saw players like S Patrick Mahnke and S Tyler Sandersfield lining up close to line or moving to a rover spot. I did like the look of the 3 - 4, considering who was where and how they were playing it this spring. If Collins sticks to this aggressive, multiple defense, the Buffs might be able to compensate for a defensive line that has yet to prove much at the college level but the learning curve will be steep since the Buffs have not committed entirely to it as of yet. It was clear this spring that Collins recognized the strength of this team is in the back eight with strong enough corner play to drastically change the defense from a base 4 - 3 a year ago to a more "attack the weakness of the offense" type set. Whether the aggressiveness is implemented in the fall or when it is 3^rd and 8 against CSU remains to be seen but right now, it looks good.

As for the personnel, it was a shocker this spring. Quite possibly the most impressive defender was senior Marcus Burton. At the first practice, I remember thinking to myself "I was right, the Buffs are going to move him to defensive line, he must have put on 10 - 15 pounds from last year and is too big/slow to play the inside." I was wrong. Burton quickly inserted himself at middle linebacker and on many occasions showed his ability to get sideline to sideline. Quietly, last year's starting middle linebacker and award winner, Jeff Smart, was battling for an outside position. Burton's size (6'0" 260) might be an early indication that the Buffs are closer and in a better personnel spot to implement the 3 - 4, although the depth chart is still showing the standard 4 - 3 look. Burton would be better suited to handle interior offensive lineman with his size.

Burton lead the team in total tackles 2 of the 3 scrimmages and ended spring ball as the Buffs most productive tackler:

Name	Tackles	TFL	Sacks
Marcus Burton	21	2	2
Michael Sipili	15	4	2
Jeff Smart	13	2	1
Shaun Mohler	11	1	1
B.J. Beatty	10	3	2
Zack Farley	7	2	1
Bryan Stengel	4	1	0
Doug Rippy	4	0	0
Guy Sergent	4	0	0
Brandon Gouin	2	0	0
Josh Hartigan	DNP	DNP	DNP
Jon Major	DNP	DNP	DNP

Spring stats hardly tell the story nor should they be considered the indicator for future success but Burton's play was very impressive this spring. Michael Sipili also had a strong spring, showing his ability to play behind the line of scrimmage, leading the team in tackles for loss with four. Sip was second in total scrimmage tackles this spring.

Ron Collins was noted saying good things about all the linebackers, including the two vets:

"The linebackers were running around pretty well today," Collins added. "The edge guys, B.J. (Beatty) and Doug (Rippy) came off the edge pretty well. I think Mike (Sipili) and Marcus (Burton) are both playing pretty well right now."

If the Buffs do go 3 - 4, the combination of Burton, Sipili and Smart will be a good trio to hold down the middle. Sipili did a great job this offseason, losing a noticeable amount of weight, helping his quickness. Burton and Sipili are also one year more mature and looks to be making a world of difference.

On the outside, four players were battling it out: Shaun Mohler, Doug Rippy, B.J. Beatty and Jeff Smart. You might throw Jon Major into that list (when healthy) and Smart out of it considering he might be switched back to middle. Both Mohler and Smart, two starters last year are going to have their hands full with Rippy and Beatty on the outside. Rippy, still very young and learning, didn't compile the stats but the amount of playing time he received was enough of an indication that the coaches like his size and athleticism. The growing pains will be there for the redshirt freshman but the talent is evident. Beatty is also still learning. He sat out a lot last year and now as a junior is getting a crash course in playing every down and being a more well rounded linebacker, not just a straight ahead player. He showed he could get in the backfield averaging just under a sack a scrimmage along with a total of three tackles for loss.

If I had to guess who would be the starters in a 4 - 3 day one, it looks like Marcus Burton in the middle, B.J. Beatty at one outside backer and to me, either Shaun Mohler or Doug Rippy. The trendy pick right now is Rippy but he is young and Mohler returns off a solid year last season. Any one of Jeff Smart, Michael Sipili and Jon Major trio would not be a surprise starter at all, especially if the 3 - 4 becomes a reality. The Buffs go seven, maybe eight deep at linebacker.

Injuries/Players Out:

Fr Lynn Katoa - academics/off the field incidents. Status unknown for 2009 and beyond.
Fr Jon Major - recovering from 2008 ACL tear. Should be full go by fall, giving Buff fans their first real look at the highly recruited 'backer.

Player(s) Who Emerged:

Hands down Marcus Burton and Michael Sipili. Most Buff fans would have been content with Shaun Mohler, Jeff Smart and B.J. Beatty starting in 2009. They would have been solid. With the emergence of Burton and Sipili (you can also throw in Rippy), competition for the starting spots is going to be heated the rest of the way with the potential of three new ones from last season. The way Burton played this spring, it will be hard to keep his big frame away from the middle of the field. The added depth will go along way in possibly making a move to a 3 - 4 and being more aggressive in the passing game. Plus the Buffs now have options.

Final Assessment:

This unit has all of the makings to be a top three linebacking corp in the Big 12 but I am not quite ready to commit to that due to the unknowns up front. A linebacker's best friend is penetration/clogs from the defensive linemen to keep blockers from getting to the second level. If no one up front can get attention, it could seriously diminish the production of the linebackers.

If they do get some help from the big guys in the trenches, they are top three in terms of talent especially if the Buffs get the same production from Burton & Sipili and Major progresses this fall. Couple that with a strong linebacker mind in coach Brian Cabral...it could be fun.

Running Game Impresses in 2009 Spring Game

irish1611 — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 09:01:08 -0000

So the spring game has come and gone, I watched the first half and then got a call saying the Broncos had a deal for Mark Sanchez at five with the Browns and ran to a nearby bar to see, I had to. I saw what I needed to see at the game today and that was too much potential Bronco drama to pass up. I should have stayed at the game, though, as I am very underwhelmed at the Denver Broncos draft. Yes, I am a die-hard Bronco fan and not happy today.

First and foremost, never use a spring game as the final predictor for the year. Not to downplay things but in the first half, I hardly ever saw Simas and Smith on the field at the same time. If that happens in the season, I will be shocked. Its situational, it's practice, it's still trying to learn what you have. That being said, we are here to give an opinion and yes, I have one.

So, I usually start these things with my concerns, especially on a day when a guy named Ayers is the only front seven player drafted to fix the Broncos. Defensive line was troubling today, as expected. I love what the Buffs did in the 3-4 bringing linebackers off the edge and up the middle but nobody on the defensive line stood out in the pass rush or run defense. Many times Bryan Lockridge, Rodney Stewart and Darrell Scott were able to bounce it to the perimeter, something that falls on the linebacker's shoulder as well, but was met with little resistance up front. Again, you can't judge the 535 yards of offense and say the defense is horrible because of the mixture of packages but no one on the defensive line impressed.

I won't go into the issues at wide receiver because we know they are there. My big question mark is the offensive staff's ability to get the ball to playmakers this season. You can't judge them in spring ball because "they supposedly are showing vanilla" but the 2009 season is fair game. We need to feature our playmakers whether it is Josh Smith, Markques Simas, Darrell Scott, Brian Lockridge etc. A combined three catches for Simas & Smith just won't get it done this year. The offensive coordinator, whoever he may be, has to find Darrell Scott in the flats, the tight ends over the middle (only two catches today total, disappointing) and Josh Smith & Markques Simas, where they need to be on the field at the same time. I am sorry but Josh Smith is a playmaker, plain and simple, look at his kickoff returns. Get the ball in his hands, feature him & Simas and go. This game is about making plays.

And then their are the quarterbacks. Tyler Hansen broke his finger in the third quarter which will require surgery and put him out until June. Hoping for a speedy recovery and that we find someone to work in offseason drills since we only have one quarterback left. Again, Cody Hawkins made it clear he was the man to beat. Both had moments, both looked very, very mediocre at times but Cody seems to react a second quicker than Hansen does. The offense just seems in more control with Cody out there. Hansen's feet are great but he almost uses it too much and it makes him slightly apprehensive. The more mobile Hansen was sacked four times today compared to one for Hawkins. You have to take what you get with both, that is all we have, mix some of the bad with the good. Each QB leaves a little more to be desired but it is what it is. Cody will be the starter at the start of the season, I will be shocked if he is not. He has looked better all spring, like usual. Plain and simple, to offset the deficiencies at quarterback and wide receiver, the offensive line and running game need to be great and they both showed glimpses today.

I thought every other defensive and offensive unit looked good, that is those who were on the first team. Let me start with the running backs, who answered my call of getting more than 4.0 ypc, led by Darrell Scott and Demetrius Sumler. Boy, did Scott show power today. He sometimes has a little apprehension in his first 1 to 2 steps when he gets the ball but he is so strong and talented. Whether its a kick return or a run, he is hard to bring down. I was very impressed with his power. A few times today he showed his ability to bounce to the outside (that was easy today against our defensive line), give a good stiff arm and roll. The hype is officially back for Darrell Scott, if it had ever gone away. All the running backs did well today but Scott's team leading 15 carries for 90 yards shows he is the man for the job in 2009. Again, I am hoping they get the ball to Scott more in the passing game. He has great hands and this offense needs to utilize the pass catching skills out of the backfield. Stewart had some good, shifty runs, like usual. Sumler ran over people and again, caught the ball well out of the backfield. Lockridge noticed you can bounce it outside on our front four and scored. Our running backs are impressive and this competition at offensive line and at tailback is only going to make this team better. It is great for the wear and tear of the season that Darian Hagan can shuffle in four guys and not see a considerable drop off. This is going to be a fresh squad all year long.

Same goes for the first team offensive line. I have no complaints. They weren't exactly facing an elite defensive line but they held their own up front in many ways. Picking up blitzes and stunts will come with experience as a few times today Marcus Burton and B.J. Beatty were able to apply pressure but for the most part, the offensive line did their job. Remember they are learning new technique from Denver Johnson but the progress they have made as a unit from the first scrimmage to the spring game is evident. When that first team offensive line trots out onto the field, you can see the fruits of Hawkins' recruiting paying off. Those are some big, talented boys.

I was also impressed with LB's B.J. Beatty, Michael Sipili, Doug Rippy and Marcus Burton today. Rippy looks great in the 3 - 4, he still has to gain experience but he reminds me of a Pittsburgh Steeler edge rusher with his size and speed. The more time he has, the better he will be. B.J. Beatty and Marcus Burton did their best work out of the 3 - 4 and provided the only pass rush of the day. Burton answered my question about being able to run sideline to sideline and his size in the middle, especially if the 3 - 4 sticks, is going to be a huge attribute. Beatty and Burton were the linebackers who stuck out the most today. Sipili also had some pops in there, taking on running backs at the line of scrimmage or dropping into coverage. The leaner, quicker Sip is showing those skills that got us excited a couple years ago. A lot of pressure will be on this unit in 2009. They are going to have to be strong in every facet of the game including the pass rush to make up for the defensive line. Right now, Colorado's hand looks to be forced into a 3 - 4 front which is fine by me. It also looks like the the linebackers worked on their coverage skills after the tight ends had a hay day in the first spring scrimmage. The tight ends had a measley two receptions, which shows improvement by the linebackers but at the same time, makes me frustrated that the tight ends didn't make another big splash in the offensive scheme.

Overall, it was a good way to end the spring. No major issues, Hansen will heal and be back before we know it. Like was mentioned in a fanpost, if it had to happen, now is the best time. I do have to say I see some progress from last year at this time. More speed at running back and depth at cornerback, offensive line, tight end and linebacker. There are obviously some glaring holes that will probably make 10 wins out of reach, but who knows, I think the progress is their, now it is time to continue to develop this offseason, staying away from injuries and off-the-field incidents.

Go Buffs!