SB Nation - Matthew DiLallo

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Big 12 North Roulette Edition Recap

RPT — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:15:18 -0000

his week's SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable Recap takes a look at some of the different thoughts expressed around the Big 12 blogosphere. This week's participants included Double T Nation, I Am The 12th Man, Clone Chronicles, a power rankings submission from Rock M Nation, Corn Nation, and Bring On The Cats.

1. This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

It's a small sample size, but the group seems to agree that Texas would be beatable in this scenario. BracketCat of Bring On The Cats actually went through and created a two-deep for a North all-star team.

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

2. Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

Taking my phrasing of using the word "handicapping," Mark from Clone Chronicles breaks it down into odds:

K-State: I think they win 1 more game at the most, but I could see them lose out. How funny/sick would it be if they went 4-4, had a share of the Big 12 North lead, yet were not bowl eligible? Remember, they played 2 FCS teams, so they need to get to 7 wins, not 6. I think they finish either 3-5 or 4-4. I'd put a 5% chance on them winning the North.

Iowa State: It all depends on how healthy they are. I look at their schedule and see a small chance at 4-0, decent shot at 3-1, but most likely going 2-2. That would put them at 4-4 in the conference as well. Due to tiebreakers, Iowa State could get to 4-4 with losses to Kansas, K-State, and Missouri, which would put them out of it.. I think they would have to win out to win the North, so I'd put a 5% chance on them winning it as well.

Kansas: I think they lose @ Tech and @ Texas for sure. That puts them best case at 4-4. Losing to Colorado doesn't hurt them too much in tiebreakers if they beat Nebraska, K-State, and Missouri. I'd give them a 35% chance of winning the North.

Nebraska: I would not want to be a Nebraska fan right now. If their offense plays like it has the past two weeks, they win 1 or 2 more games max (@ Baylor and either K-State or @ Colorado). If they can figure out whatever their problem is, all of their games are winnable except for Oklahoma. I think they beat Baylor and Colorado. K-State is a tossup right now. I think Kansas is a loss, if the Jayhawks offense gets going. I think they can get to 4-4, but I could be talked into 3-5 pretty easily. I'd give them a 15% chance of winning the North.

Missouri: Easiest schedule down the stretch: @ Colorado, Baylor, @ K-State, Iowa State, and Kansas (at Arrowhead). Can you find 4 wins from that group? I can. They could even rip off a 5 game winning streak and take this thing. I'd be interesting if Iowa State was at 4-3 and Missouri was at 3-3 the week they played. Since I think they have the only chance to realistically win 5 games, they are my favorite at this point. I give them a 40% chance to win it. Truth be told, if they can win 4 games including Kansas, I think they would win the tie-breakers. They can win 5 of these games, likely will win 3-4, but even at 4, they have a chance to win the North.

Colorado: I think they probably lose out, sorry Ralphie. 0% chance of winning the North this year.

3. Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

Skin Patrol of Double T Nation still believes in Oklahoma, though not without a few good-natured barbs.

Er... well they beat Kansas, which means Oklahoma and Colorado have that in common now, I suppose. Cynicism aside, Vegas is still ruthlessly behind Oklahoma, and wise man say: When sinners are behind Sooners, general public should be too. OU politicking aside, the reality is that they've lost to some pretty good teams by some pretty slim margins, and are probably one of the better 4-3 teams in the country. A good rule of thumb for a team as talented and well-coached as Oklahoma is that if it looks dead, it's probably just sleeping.

4. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

Husker Mike of Corn Nation unofficially creates the "WTF" category for wins, a category that may or may not include at least 20 games at this point.

Taylor Potts will be transferring from Texas Tech at the end of the season? We knew A&M was bad, and Tech can be pretty good. But A&M's victory in Lubbock defies logic, unless you throw Potts under the bus. I think you've got to throw the A&M victory into the WTF category as the anomaly for now until A&M proves their mettle again. (Hell, even Colorado has managed to win a couple of games this season...)

5. Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

We are shocked -- shocked -- to learn that Beergut of I Am The 12th Man doesn't believe Texas found its mojo.

No, texas didn't find its mojo, they simply played a team that is tanking right now in Missouri. Missouri's leader is their QB, Blaine Gabbert, and with Gabbert injured right now, their offense is struggling. With no offense to lead them, they were sitting ducks for texas' defense. Missouri's defense is nothing to write home about outside of Sean Weatherspoon, so texas' offense looked better than they really are against them.

I do think texas will beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater, and I don't even think it will be close. OSU doesn't believe they can beat texas, and that mental edge will help texas. I do look forward to watching Joe Wickline's offensive line go up against texas' DL. If Oklahoma State can run the ball, they will make it a game, but I don't think that will happen.

6. Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

Noteworthy: Double T Nation abstained from voting.

1. Texas -- unanimous decision at the top
2. Oklahoma State -- edges out No. 3
3. Oklahoma -- just narrowly misses out sitting at No. 2
4. Texas Tech -- voters appear to think the A&M game was an aberration
5. Kansas State -- Huge variation for the Cats, who varied from No. 4 to No. 10
6. Nebraska -- That defense is top three. That offense is bottom three.
T7. Kansas -- 'Hawks vary between No. 4 and No. 11 on individual ballots
T7. Iowa State -- The Clones are starting to feel the love
9. Missouri -- Tigers in desperate need of a win after rough stretch to open Big 12 play
10. Texas A&M -- Further proof of the lack of trust in the Tech/A&M result
11. Colorado -- Didn't get voted any higher than No. 10
12. Baylor -- Fare thee well, Hot Tub Griffin

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Colorado Buffaloes Team Capsule

irish1611 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 08:36:59 -0000

If the Buffs are to realize their goals for 2009, Cody Hawkins' and the entire offenses' performance much improve from their 95th total offense ranking a year ago.

View full size photo »

Coach: Dan Hawkins enters his third season at Colorado (13-24, 0 - 1 in postseason).
Coaching Changes: Offensive Coordinator Eric Kiesau (replaces Mark Helfrich - Oregon), Offensive Line Coach Denver Johnson (replaces Jeff Grimes - Auburn), Defensive Consultant/Linebackers Bob Foster added to roster, Dan Hawkins to coach Wide Receivers.
2008 Record: 5-7 overall, 2-6 in Big 12
Players Returning with '08 Starts:
- Offense: 15 - WR Scotty McKnight, LT Nate Solder, LG Blake Behrens, RT Matthew Bahr, TE Riar Geer, TE Ryan Deehan, QB Cody Hawkins, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Rodney Stewart, RB Demetrius Sumler, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Darrell Scott, FB Jack Behrens, OG Ryan Miller, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner.
  - 64% (85 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Defense: 9 - DE Marquez Herrod, LB Jeff Smart, LB Shaun Mohler, CB Cha'pelle Brown, S Anthony Perkins, S Patrick Mahnke, CB Jimmy Smith, CB Jalil Brown, LB Michael Sipili
  - 39% (51 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Special teams: 2 - P Matt DiLallo, PK Aric Goodman.
Key Positions to Replace From 2008 - Defensive Line, Center, Safety
Key Losses from 2008: LB Brad Jones, S Ryan Walters, DT George Hypolite, DT Brandon Nicolas, C Daniel Sanders, OG Devin Head.
Newcomers Who Might See Time in 2009: DE Nick Kasa, DT Nate Bonsu, LB Forrest West, WR Jarrod Darden, WR Will Jefferson, WR Terdema Ussery, WR Andre Simmons, K Zach Grossnickle.

OFFENSE

2008 OFFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Offense: 86^th overall, 10^th in Big 12 / Passing Offense: 81^st overall, 11^th in Big 12 / Total Offense: 95^th overall, 12^th in Big 12 / Scoring Offense: 100^th overall, 12^th in Big 12.

The 2008 season was an offensive performance to forget. A rash of injuries, inexperienced players at important positions and a lack of a consistent identity spelt trouble for the Colorado Buffaloes. With the 2009 season just around the corner, a more experienced unit overall plus a healthy group of linemen up front has many hoping that the Buffs will reverse the lackluster offensive performance of the past few years. That being said, there are still plenty of question marks that still need to be answered.

the rest of the offensive, defensive, Q&A and win/loss predictions after the jump....

NEW FACES BRINGS NEW SCHEMES: One of the headlines coming into the 2009 season was the changes to the offensive staff. Joining the Colorado Buffaloes this offseason was offensive line coach Denver Johnson, who previously held the Illinois State head coaching job. Replacing Jeff Grimes, Johnson has seemed to endear himself to the fan base, preaching to bring back a more smash mouth style of football, playing on the opposition's side of the ball and putting the five linemen on the field. Such was displayed with Johnson's decision to move Ryan Miller to guard to make way for OT Blake Behrens. Johnson inherits a unit with no seniors but full of talent and a reason to be optimistic about the program's future. If Johnson can quickly& successfully implement his system with this young but relatively experienced offensive line, Buff fans should brace for a much improved offensive performance in 2009. The good news for the new coach is, unlike last year, his unit looks much healthier. Back from injury/off the field issues is Miller, OG Ethan Adkins, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner (mid season return expected) and C Mike Iltis; all of whom will be battling for a starting spot.

Their was also a shake up at the top with former wide receivers and assistant head coach, Eric Kiesau, taking over as offensive coordinator for Mark Helfrich. The season opener against Colorado State will mark the first game which Eric Kiesau has owned the game plan and called the plays on game day. Last season, the Buffs failed to establish any sort of identity, attempting to run the spread with a youthful, injured team that lacked game changing playmakers. Kiesau has said to want to bring back a more "pro-style" offense that allows for more power football, the use of tight ends and a progression based passing game, three traits that bode well for the strengths of CU's offense.

Head coach Dan Hawkins will take over the wide receiver coaching duties replacing Kiesau. Ashley Ambrose will assist Hawkins with the wide receivers and should take over in the near future.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: With WR Markques Simas suspended for the first two games of the season, junior college transfer WR Andre Simmons qualifying status up the air as of Thursday, August 18^th, the lone remaining experienced receiver on the Buffs' roster is Scotty McKnight. Not labeled as an explosive receiver, the Buffs need him to continue to be the steady force and over achieve on his prior two seasons considering the Buffs might not have a lot elsewhere to provide production. Colorado might get some production out of true freshman Will Jefferson, Jarrod Darden and Terdema Ussery but McKnight might be the best and only experienced option in 2009.

In an obvious choice, QB Cody Hawkins, who looks to have the edge in the quarterback race, needs to improve from 2008. The lack of playmakers currently at wide receiver does not bode well for increased production from Hawkins but tight end, running back and offensive line look to be improved from a year ago. If Hawkins can make better decisions and manage the offense through a strong running game, the passing game should open up. The key for Hawkins this year is to increase his completion percentage which was 57.2% in 2008, about 5% below the average junior quarterback % in 2008. Sustaining drives, keeping the defense off the field and converting on third downs will all improve with an increase in completions.

You could go running back here but with a stable of four in the backfield, the production looks to be there. Most Buff fans will look at the offensive line and hope that their health leads to more points. That being said, look to the tackle spots as players who need to play big in 2009. LT Nate Solder and RT Blake Behrens have the inside track at the two starting positions with the prospects of a bright future ahead of them. Solder, the athletically gifted converted tight end, has all the intangibles to be a dominant tackle while Behrens has similar intangibles and great footwork. Solder, due to his position change, and Behrens, due to being a redshirt freshman, will still have growing pains but if they are able to work through those early in the season, the offensive line has the makings to be special.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Hands down this was going to be WR Markques Simas or WR Andre Simmons before the former was suspended two games and the latter is still sitting on the sideline well into week two of fall ball due to admissions issues. The new impact newcomer may be WR Will Jefferson, who was an August 2009 signee. He has seen time with the first and second teams this fall and has impressed the coaches. The safe pick here, though, is Givens, who quickly inserted himself into the starting rotation this spring after gaining 20+ pounds to his true freshman frame. Givens has the ability to grow into a great one.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE OFFENSE: Running Back and Offensive Line. The Buffs boast one of the more loaded backfields in the Big 12 with sophomores Darrell Scott, Rodney Stewart and Brian Lockridge along with junior Demetrius Sumler. Stewart led the Buffs in rushing yards as a freshman and Sumler led the team in rushing touchdowns in 2008. Lockridge, a speedster, returns from injury after a serviceable 2007 freshman campaign and looks to be an added weapon that can be useful as a third down back and in the slot. But Darrell Scott still leads the ranks in the hype category. Supposedly in the best shape of his life at 220 pounds and fully recovered from his 2008 injury-plagued season, Scott looks to take a mulligan in 2009 and become an elite Big 12 back. Still, don't count out the other three, especially Rodney Stewart, who continues to impress. We do know one thing; running backs coach Darian Hagan will play the best man for the job regardless of preseason hype.

The offensive line has all the potential you could ask for to build a team around. They are big, fast, athletic, and will be around for a long time. Nate Solder is the veteran on the offensive line, sort of, checking in as a junior with all other players vying for starting spots coming in as either sophomores or redshirt freshmen. Solder and Ryan Miller lead the way in the size category coming at 6'9" 305 pounds and 6'8" 320 pounds respectively with Solder considered to be one of the most athletic players on the team, running a sub 5.0 second forty this offseason. C Mike Iltis looks to have the center spot locked down replacing Daniel Sanders from a year ago while Givens will man the right tackle spot. The only position that looks to be up for grabs at this point in time is the other guard spot. Ethan Adkins looks to have the upper hand but watch out for Blake Behrens and Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner, once he returns from his ACL injury, to push for time there. This unit is big, athletic, has depth and should be a bright spot in 2009 if they can protect the quarterback.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE OFFENSE: Wide Receiver and Quarterback. Wide receiver takes spots #1 and #2 in our weakness review. With Scotty McKnight the only player active who has caught a pass in a division one football game, the Buffs lack known quantities at the flanker spot. Markques Simas will hopefully return against Wyoming from suspension but with his academic ineligibility in 2008 coupled with the most current infraction, Buff fans should not count on anything. Andre Simmons, if admitted, should not be expected to be ready for the Colorado State game considering he has been sitting on the sideline for the last two weeks. Hopefully the Buffs can have both Simmons and Simas ready by the Wyoming game and can get production from one of the true freshman. Walk-on WR Jason Espinoza will also play a part in the offense. There are just not a lot of options at wide receiver this year.

Playmaking ability still remains a big concern on both sides of the ball. In 2008, the Buffs lacked explosiveness and with former WR Josh Smith transferring to UCLA, many players will be counted on to be a game changer that have not necessarily produced game changing results in the past. If the Buffs want to get to 7, 8 or 9 wins, Darrell Scott, Markques Simas, Rodney Stewart, Brian Lockridge, potentially Andre Simmons, one of the tight ends need to evolve into consistent threats on the offensive side of the ball.

DEFENSE

2008 DEFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Defense: 86^th overall, 9^th in Big 12 / Passing Efficiency Defense: 73rd overall, 5^th in Big 12 / Total Defense: 78^th overall, 4^th in Big 12 / Scoring Defense: 86^th overall, 8^th in Big 12.

2008 provided some surprises on the defensive side of the ball. A senior-laden defensive line was supposed to be the strength of the team with the cornerbacks the weak spot. Roles reversed and relatively speaking, the cornerback play exceeded expectations while the defensive line failed to meet expectations. Often thought of as "solid but not spectacular" last season, the defense is considered to be strong to very strong in the back seven in 2009 but inexperienced up front. Colorado's defense has the opportunity to be a top tier Big 12 squad if they can get solid play from the front four.

ADJUSTING AND MULTIPLE: No one knows really what the Buffs are going to do on defense this year. Dan Hawkins has kept the defense on the far side of the practice field this offseason out of the public eye, shut down practices because of the leaking of defensive formations on the internet and has even brought in Bob Foster, his past mentor at Cal-Davis, to add his defensive knowledge. As noted above and from what observers have seen, the Buffs look like they won't be afraid to mix up the base sets. The lack of known commodities up front might force Colorado to become more multiple, switching between the 3 - 4, 4 - 3 and even 3 - 3 - 5 defensive schemes. Such defensive looks are possible due to some exceptional depth at the linebacker and cornerback spots.

Defensive coordinator Ron Collins has preached this offseason that his goal is to get the 11 best players on the field and that might mean three down linemen. If the Buffs lineup with three, Collins will have to be creative in his blitz packages and cover schemes. Establishing quarterback pressure is the name of the game this year as last year the Buffs ranked 7^th in the conference in sacks, averaging on 2.0 a game.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: The Buffs need to replace 17 ½ sacks which is well over half of their total sack production from a year ago. Most are hoping that LB B.J. Beatty can replace last year's production of LB Brad Jones. Beatty showed, when healthy, that he has a nose for the football. If Colorado opts for a 3 - 4 defense, Beatty figures to play a prominent role as a rush end/stand-up outsider backer similar to what Brad Jones did for the '08 team. Again, with the major concern over who is going to get to the quarterback, players like B.J. Beatty are going to have to produce.

Marcus Burton is another player who is being counted on for a big year. An afterthought last year, Burton has rededicated himself to football and the 260 pound middle linebacker made his presence known this spring. Even though he was the biggest linebacker during offseason testing, Burton still produced the fastest forty time and showed great sideline to sideline range. Burton, considering with inexperience up front, will have a difficult job sifting through offensive linemen and being productive. Burton will have to be the anchor of the defense, especially in the early going of the season as the coaches try to figure out who will produce up front.

CB Jimmy Smith is the final player who needs to have a big year. With two inexperienced safeties in the Colorado secondary and a defensive line that is unproven, pass coverage will be at a premier this season. CB Cha'pelle Brown proved his worth last season. With CB Ben Burney returning from injury and CB Jalil Brown back from a successful 2008 campaign, the Buffs have plenty of depth at the position. But Jimmy Smith has the ability to change the game and shut down a side of the field on his own, making S Patrick Mahnke and S Anthony Perkin's life a lot easier. Smith, the 6'3" 200 pound NFL prototype cornerback, has the ability to be the best corner in the Big 12.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Early money was on DE Nick Kasa and DT Edward Nuckols due to the inexperience on the defensive line but with Kasa partially tearing his MCL and Nuckols failing to academically qualify, the Buffs will have to look elsewhere for immediate help. The most logical choice is now DT Nate Bonsu. The 6'1" 295 pound Allen, Texas product may just be forced into some early action.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE DEFENSE: Linebacker and Cornerback. Ask Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart about how strong the linebacker group is. Mohler and Smart were both starters a year ago and all conference awarded players. This year, they might be battling for one spot; and the Buffs may even add another linebacker position to run the 3 - 4. Marcus Burton impressed this offseason as did Michael Sipili, who will be competing for the middle linebacker job. Throw in the young but physically gifted Douglas Rippy and the potential of B.J. Beatty and this may be the deepest position on the Buffs team. And we didn't even mention Jon Major, a heavily recruited player from Colorado who tore his ACL last season as a true freshman.

A similar story at cornerback with 2007 starter Ben Burney returning to team up with Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith, all of whom started at least one game in 2008. Who starts against Colorado State will be fun to watch.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE DEFENSE: Defensive line, based purely on inexperience, not poor past performance. Gone are three seniors from a year ago and in are unproven players like DT Curtis Cunningham, DE Conrad Obi, DE Marquez Herrod, DT Eugene Goree, DT Tyler Sale, DT Will Pericak, DE Forrest West and DT Nate Bonsu. Nick Kasa may be in the mix after he recovers from the partial MCL tear.

Marquez Herrod will probably be a starter at defensive end but after that, it's anyone's guess. Curtis Cunningham played as a true freshman last season and made a few plays but he is still considered raw.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Last year's special team's performance was abysmal and should be a big point of emphasis this season if the Buffs' plan to be a player in the North. The departure of Josh Smith leaves a hole in the return game and 1,987 all purpose yards lost. The top candidates to fill the return role are Jason Espinoza, Rodney Stewart, Andre Simmons and Darrell Scott. K Aric Goodman returns, but he was just 5 for 14 on field goal attempts last season. The Buffs also return P Matt DiLallo who averaged 40.49 yards/punt last season while splitting time with Tom Suazo.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN AND QUICK HIT PREDICTIONS

Sept 5^th - Colorado St. Rams: The rivalry game is in Boulder, not in Denver, giving the Buffs a home field advantage. CSU will be breaking in a new quarterback and looks to have a weak front seven returning on defense. If CSU can get any quarterback play, it could be a dangerous game but expect the Buffs to load the box on defense. Prediction: W (1-0)
Sept 11^th - @ Toledo Rockets: the proverbial trap game with only five days rest. It is a Friday night game on the road against a team with a new coach; yes, a little scary. Like Colorado State, Toledo returns a lot of offensive line experience. Couple all of that with the dismal road record under Dan Hawkins (only 2 wins in three years) and the Buffs could be in more trouble than we would like to believe. That being said, Colorado has the more talented team and should win by double digits. Prediction: W (2-0)
Sept 19^th - Wyoming Cowboys: If the Buffs can start 2 - 0, they will have a nice eight day rest before hosting Wyoming at home who has little offensive identity even though former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave Christensen takes over the helm as new coach. Missouri has used Colorado as its punching bag the past two years but the Wyoming offense won't resemble Chase Coffman, Chase Daniel, Derrick Washington and Jeremy Maclin. Buffs need to win this one big. Prediction: W (3-0)
Oct 1^st - @West Virginia Mountaineers: This is a coin toss game. Both teams have 12 days to prepare with West Virginia coming off a tough game at Auburn the week before. West Virginia will be favored by 3 - 7 points so this is certainly a winnable game but on a Thursday night in Morgantown with the Buffs past lack of success on the road, I see a 3 - 1 start. Ask me again after week 2. Prediction: L (3-1)
Oct 10^th - @ Texas Longhorns: There are two "more than likely" road losses on the schedule which makes Dan Hawkins' "10 win expectation, not a guarantee" phrase possible. This is one of those games. Prediction: L (3-2)
Oct 17^th - Kansas Jayhawks: The Buffs should have three home games circled this year; Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. Three games that will dictate the degree of success in 2009. Win 2 or 3 of these games, expect Colorado football to be playing in strong bowl game. Lose all three, Colorado may once again be home for the holidays once again. Kansas QB Todd Reesing has been a Buff killer and the Jayhawks are expected to be a top 25 team when it is all said and done. Kansas has to replace some offensive linemen and linebackers so the Buffs should be in the game. Prediction: L (3-3)
Oct 24^th - @ Kansas St. Wildcats: Coming off three losses, this is a trap game that should be a Buff win. At 3 - 3, this game's outcome could determine if CU goes on to a winning record in the last half of the season or underachieves. If this is truly the year that we see changes in Boulder, Dan Hawkins' team should go into Manhattan and win. Since it is the offseason, let's be optimistic. Prediction: W (4-3)
Oct 31^st - Missouri Tigers: Halloween day in Boulder should be a wild scene. Mizzou could come into this game with a 3 - 4 record with both teams will have a lot riding on the game. The Buffs will have revenge on their mind after being utterly embarrassed the past two years losing by a combined score of 113 - 10. Many of the pieces from those two games are gone from Columbia and while Missouri fans are pushing the "Blaine Gabbert for Heisman" campaign already, this is the year for revenge. And one other thing, Missouri returns the fewest starters from a year ago in the Big 12 along with Nebraska Prediction: W (5-3)
Nov 7^th - Texas A&M Aggies: I believe most Colorado fans would take 5 - 3 at this point in the year considering Texas A&M and Iowa State are still on the schedule with Nebraska being an important swing game. Most will admit Colorado should have beaten A&M a year ago in College Station outplaying them for all but 5 or so minutes of that game. At home in Folsom, the Buffs should be on a roll coming off two wins. Could be a let down candidate if they don't respond after a big Missouri victory but this team is more experienced than prior teams. Prediction: W (6-3)
Nov 14^th - @ Iowa St. Cyclones: Last time the Buffs went to Ames, they laid an egg which once again makes predicting any road games as a win a risky prospect. Trust me, Buff fans won't be laying a lot of action on the first road game to Toledo. Hawkins will remind his team of how poorly they played a year ago at Folsom and the bad loss two years ago. Colorado has a chance to win four in a row heading into the last two weeks of the season. Prediction: W (7-3)
Nov 19^th - @ Oklahoma St. Cowboys: Even if the Buffs did have a full week's rest, this would be a loss but on the road with a short week against a top 10 contender, the Buffs' win streak ends here. Prediction: L (7-4)
Nov 27^th - Nebraska Cornhuskers: Eight wins sounds like paradise with the potential for nine in a bowl game. The Buffs will get more rest than the Huskers due to playing on a Thursday night against Oklahoma State and the Huskers have to travel to Boulder. Right now, this game is a toss-up but it is hard for me to see this Buffs team finishing with eight wins and it is equally hard to see the Huskers as a top 25 team. That being said, seven wins was my number for the Buffs all along. Eight is do-able as you can tell, nine is a stretch. You can also make a case for five or six wins. Prediction: L (7-5)

SB NATION BIG 12 BLOGGER'S ROUNDTABLE Q&A

1) Predicted Finish

Big 12 North

Kansas

Nebraska

Colorado

Missouri

Kansas State

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Oklahoma

Texas

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Texas Tech

Texas A&M

2) Who wins the Big 12 North?

~~Colorado Buffaloes Nebraska Cornhuskers~~ The Kansas Jayhawks...who knows, its wide open? Go get'em Buffs!

3) Who wins the Big 12 South?

The Oklahoma Sooners

4) How many Big 12 teams will be bowl eligible?

7 - Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State

5) Which conference team do you think will show the most improvement from last season (in record only)?

Baylor

6) Who is your Non-QB conference player of the year?

DL Gerald McCoy

7) Do you believe any Big 12 coaches will be gone (fired or hired elsewhere) after this season?

The ones I could see happening are Coach Hawk or Mike Gundy (but only with 5 wins or less and that won't happen for either.

8) What would you prefer as the Big 12's 3rd "best" bowl game? The Holiday or Alamo Bowl?

Holiday - San Diego is better than San Antonio in every way imaginable

9) Better D-Lineman, Suh or McCoy?

Gerald McCoy

10) Better Wide Receiver, Bryant or Briscoe?

Dez Bryant

11) Predict the worst non-conference loss (an upset) that the Big 12 will suffer.

Have to say Nevada upsetting Mizzou.

12) Predict the MNC participants and champion.

Florida def. Penn State (an embarrassment of a schedule)

Poll

What is your regular season win prediction for the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009?

10 wins +: Gotta go with Coach Hawkins, he set the bar, anything less would be a disappointment

18 votes

8 - 9 wins: very solid year, outside chance at the Big 12 North, top tier bowl game

185 votes

7 wins: an improvement, still too many holes to challenge for a North title but still bowling

86 votes

6 wins: squeak into a bowl game but with an empty feeling, still have a ways to go to be competitive each week

18 votes

5 or less wins: not enough playmakers, too many holes, more of the same in Boulder. 2010 here we come

9 votes

316 votes | Poll has closed

'Twas the Night Before Camp

irish1611 — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:13:09 -0000

View full size photo »

At last, let the journey begin. Finally, no more to talk about than "10 wins, no excuses," preseason rankings, and trying to rationalize the experience of your second team quarterback divided by the factor of 3 to figure out upcoming win potential. It's tough trying to get through the minutia, rehashing on subjects that never seem to go away. Last year it was the off-the-field issues, the year before was the "intramurals" comment and we all know what the offseason of 2009 will be famous for. Hopefully, 2010's offseason will be known for the talk about the resurrection of the Colorado Buffaloes football program.

Hopefully, the 2009 season is about quieting the snickering and the under-the-breath-laughing that most of the nation is displaying towards the "I didn't guarantee 10 wins" by coach Hawkins.

Boy is it good to have actual football back.

Everyone has things they hope to hear about coming out of camp that will make them feel better about the upcoming season, especially this year, as pivotal as it is surrounded by the perpetual statement : "if." The time to answer the "ifs" starts tomorrow!

There are many things to be excited about as camp kicks off but here are five that should get the juices flowing

-The Emergence of a new No. 1 - Yep, it looks like Andre Simmons might be wearing the number 1 this season based on the most recent release of the 2009 roster. Let's hope that it actually comes to fruition. In somewhat of a heroic effort to finish nine classes this spring and summer just to possibly qualify, Andre Simmons will try to pull off another amazing feat to get into "playing shape" and digest the playbook in one month to become a key playmaker. Talk about a whirlwind last few months for Simmons who probably had no idea what he was in for when he committed to the Buffs on February 4^th. I am excited to see the big #1 out there, standing 6'3" weighing in at 210 pounds, showing off his 4.46...something that trumps any Buffs' receiver by almost two tenths of a second. Whether he will be ready to make an immediate impact from week one or even week four against West Virginia remains to be seen but there is excitement around the prospects of such an impact. Still with all the hoopla about Simmons, the real key to gain offensive balance will be the growth of Markques Simas as a true number 1 receiver. Similar to Andre Simmons, Simas has never played in a division one game so the Buffs are counting on a lot of production from the unknown. That being said, the unknowns have talent and the potential to be the best duo at receiver the Buffs have had in a while.

-Eric Kiesau at the Helm - 95^th, 72^nd, 102^nd...that has been the Buffs' total offense ranking the last three years. With the departure of former offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich to Oregon in the offseason and the promotion of the popular Eric Kiesau, Buff fans are hoping that the new man in charge can maximize the strengths of the offense. The good news is that the pieces seem to be in a better place than they ever were under Helfrich and let's face it, the numbers can't get much worse. I am excited to see if Kiesau can pump some life into the offense, something he has already done on the recruiting front. Dan Hawkins takes over Kiesau's wide receiver duties with Hawkins stating that Kiesau will be given total autonomy on the X's and O's. It will be fun to watch the impact Hawkins has on one of the biggest question mark positions and at the same time, the game plans Kiesau comes up with.

-One, Two, Three, Four... That's A Stable - the Buffs seem to have four running backs who are all capable of carrying the load. Of course the headliner is Darrell Scott who is still the player most fans will go and see this fall. #2 will be a different player than people will remember seeing last fall. Gone is the 230 pound back and supposedly in is the 210 pound speedster that still has the power that we saw last fall. The newest roster lists Scott at a surprising 225 pounds, though, which is a surprise if it is true due to the statements from many parties, including himself, saying Scott's best playing weight is in the 210 range. Don't forget about Rodney Stewart who is still playing the underdog role after outplaying Darrell Scott a year ago and leading the Buffs in rushing. Stewart and Scott should have a great battle all camp and I think running backs coach Darian Hagan loves pinning the players against each other to breed competition. Don't forget about Demetrius Sumler, who led the Buffs in rushing touchdowns last year, and Brian Lockridge, whose speed quickly catches the eye. Running back drills ought to be highly competitive this fall.

-The Newbies - One of the best things about the first few days of camp is getting a look at the newcomers. Most of us have had to rely on the scouting services' height and weight measurements, 3 minute YouTube highlights and MaxPreps statistics. Yeah, Edward Nuckols, the highly rated defensive tackle from California, didn't qualify but there are still plenty of other players that everyone should get a look at to see if they pass the eyeball test. Nick Kasa, the defensive end from Colorado, should bring in a crowd of onlookers as the Buffs badly need the 6'7" pass rusher to get to the quarterback, preferably in year one. All of the neophytes will be good to see out there but I am especially excited to see Kasa, Forrest West, Terdema Ussery, Nate Bonsu and Liloa Nobriga. Also, I have heard not many newcomers have impressed more this summer than CB Deji Olatoye, the lowest rated recruit in last year's class but possess great athleticism and measurables. Oh yeah, make sure you watch out for that 6'5" quarterback as well.

-Position Battles Galore - There are probably only a handful of players who have starting jobs locked up: OG Ryan Miller, OT Nate Solder, C Mike Iltis, OT Bryce Givens, S Anthony Perkins, P Matt DiLallo, S Patrick Mahnke, FB Jake Behrens and possibly CB Jimmy Smith. Other than that, let the battles begin. Running backs & the quarterback spot will get the most attention this fall but to me, the most exciting is at linebacker. Throw in a bunch of talented players, the possible need for a 3 - 4 defense and coach Brian Cabral's history of producing great units and you have, to me, one of the more intriguing battles. Returning starters Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart were thought to be shoe-ins for a repeat on top of the depth chart but in spring ball, both were in deep competition with Douglas Rippy, B.J. Beatty, Marcus Burton and Michael Sipili. Throw in a healthy Jon Major from the 2008 recruiting class and the Buffs look to have seven players who will be fighting for the three to four spots. Plus, who knows what Forrest West (3 - 4 purposes), Derrick Webb and Liloa Nobriga have to offer. Marcus Burton was lights out in spring ball, showing great range and putting up impressive workout numbers. Who would have thought the 260 pounder would be the fastest backer?

Poll

What position battle are you most excited to see play out this fall?

Quarterback

38 votes

Wide Receiver

59 votes

Linebacker

18 votes

Running Back

77 votes

Defensive Line

25 votes

217 votes | Poll has closed

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Yesterday we took at look at what really was an impressively bad offense that Colorado put on the field in 2008. That the Buffs came within a game of bowl eligibility must speak volumes of their defense, right?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 110.1 (#33)
Success Rate+: 105.3 (#45)
PPP+: 116.1 (#34)

Standard Downs S&P+: 108.6 (#36)
Passing Downs S&P+: 124.0 (#15)

Redzone S&P+: 109.5 (#37)

Q1 S&P+: 107.0 (#43)
Q2 S&P+: 122.7 (#20)
Q3 S&P+: 98.4 (#62)
Q4 S&P+: 123.1 (#15)

1st Down S&P+: 108.7 (#37)
2nd Down S&P+: 102.3 (#52)
3rd Down S&P+: 135.5 (#8)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 103.1 (#56)
Rushing SR+: 102.6 (#53)
Rushing PPP+: 103.8 (#55)

Standard Downs: 101.7 (#58)
Passing Downs: 104.4 (#57)

Redzone: 96.2 (#76)

Line Yards+: 98.3 (#64)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.3 (#18)
Passing SR+: 107.1 (#34)
Passing PPP+: 125.0 (#18)

Standard Downs: 116.0 (#14)
Passing Downs: 129.9 (#15)

Redzone: 129.8 (#13)

Adj. Sack Rate: 5.9% (#61)

While the offense was almost universally bad in every category, the defense was a lot more interesting to analyze--quite a few ups and downs.

They were decent on Standard Downs and excellent on Passing Downs. When I see a team better on Passing Downs, I assume that their LB corps must be pretty good at blitzing, but that's a bit of a generalization.
This is reflected in the per-down numbers as well--they were mediocre on 2nd downs and great on 3rd downs.
Their best quarter: Q4. Makes sense if you think about it. A) They lost four games by 16 points or more, and in "non-close" situations, the trailing team usually has the advantage while the leading team is running the ball and killing the clock. B) When they were in close games down the stretch, they usually thrived. As mentioned yesterday, they were 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and while that ignores the Nebraska game--they were leading by one with two minutes left before Nebraska scored a quick 10 points that deceptively boosted the scoring margin--clearly they were still pretty good when the game was close.
While their success rates (efficiency) and PPP (explosiveness) were roughly the same in rushing defense, Colorado did see a decent split between their passing defense success rates (34th) and PPP (18th). That usually suggests relatively loose coverage and good tackling--you can get efficient, short gains against them, but you're not necessarily going to burn them deep a lot.
Neither line play measure was particularly impressive.

Defensive Line

Herrod (#90) is about the only returner who has made any plays whatsoever.

2008 Unit Ranking: #58 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Marquez Herrod (6'2, 265, Jr.)
DT Eugene Goree (6'1, 295, So.)
DT Taj Kaynor (6'5, 265, Sr.)
DE Conrad Obi (6'3, 265, So.)
DT Curtis Cunningham (6'1, 275, So.)
DE Lagrone Shields (6'3, 270, So.)
DT Will Pericak (6'4, 265, RSFr.)
DE Tony Poremba (6'1, 230, So.)

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the list above combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

Linebackers

Smart (#45)

2008 Unit Ranking: #36 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jeff Smart (6'0, 220, Sr.)
Shaun Mohler (6'3, 220, Sr.)
BJ Beatty (6'2, 220, Jr.)
Doug Rippy (6'1, 230, RSFr.)
Michael Sipili (6'1, 240, Jr.)
Jon Major (6'2, 225, RSFr.)
Marcus Burton (6'0, 260, Sr.)

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Secondary

Mighty mite Cha'pelle Brown is a rock-solid corner.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Cha'pelle Brown (5'7, 170, Sr.)
CB Jimmy Smith (6'2, 200, Jr.)
S Anthony Perkins (5'10, 200, So.)
S Patrick Mahnke (6'1, 205, So.)
CB Benjamin Burney (5'11, 190, Sr.)
CB Jalil Brown (6'1, 205, Jr.)
S Travis Sandersfeld (6'0, 205, So.)
S Ray Polk (6'1, 190, RSFr.)

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

Special Teams

Aric Goodman MUST improve in 2009.

2008 Unit Rankings: #80 Net Punting, #56 Punt Returns, #38 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Aric Goodman (5'10, 185, Jr.) - 30-for-31 PAT, 5-for-14 FG
P Matt DiLallo (6'1, 200, Sr.) - 34.0 Net Avg
KR - Rodney Stewart (5'7, 170, So.)
PR - Jason Espinoza (5'8, 175, So.)

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? I could probably manage to go about 2- or 3-for-14*, so he was only about six points better than me as a kicker. He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

* Okay, maybe 1-for-14. Fine, 0-for-14. I'd have kicked every ball directly into the ass of a lineman seven yards ahead of me.

Meanwhile, here's where Josh Smith's loss could possibly hit the hardest. Again, Smith wasn't all-conference material or anything, but while he averaged a decent 13.3 yards per catch (best among CU receivers), he was quite good in the return game, averaging 10.4 yards per punt return (point of reference: Jeremy Maclin averaged 11.0) and 25.5 per kick return (Maclin: 24.0) with 1 TD. Assuming he doesn't get coerced into staying in Boulder, then it looks like the early leaders to replace him are Rodney Stewart at KR and Jason Espinoza at PR. I have nothing valuable about whether they're any good at returning kicks, so instead I'll just point out that they're very little. So there you go.

Summary

As I mentioned in yesterday's intro, I'm trying as hard as I can not to be biased about Colorado. I think they're young enough that they really could be solid in 2010 and maybe 2011, but it's really annoying me that it appears writers are once again jumping the gun too early on them, picking them as a North sleeper for what I think is the fourth straight year. They've got a solid-not-flashy LB corps and potentially very good secondary. They've also got a lot of unproven potential at RB and on the O-line. But that's about it. They have nothing proven at WR or on the D-line, and unfortunately I think Cody Hawkins has proven a bit too much at QB. They would be better served floating under the radar for another year and figuring out what they have, particularly at WR. But instead, people are once again ranking them in the Top 40 and calling them a sleeper, meaning they'll be expected to produce a little earlier than I think they're capable of producing. Not that I'm losing sleep over these preseason picks or anything, but it's not fair to Colorado to expect anything major from them just yet--I've been wrong plenty of times before, but I think they're still a year away.

---

Projections on Friday. And I'm warning you now--as down as I appear to be on CU, the BTBS projections are infinitely more down on them. Shockingly down on them...to the point where I almost want to stick up for them a bit.

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Defenses

Bill C. — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:00:18 -0000

So yesterday we established that any discussion of Big 12 North Offenses in 2009 still revolved first around Kansas and Missouri. Now, we move on to the defense. We'll go through the exact same attempted numbers-over-biases analysis and see where that gets us.

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#26)
Nebraska (#42)
Kansas (#47)
Colorado (#58)
Iowa State (#79)
Kansas State (#96)

We all have a lot of confidence and optimism regarding Jacquies Smith, Brian Coulter, and Aldon Smith, but the facts--the known knowns--are that Missouri's DL loses three starters and will likely tumble a bit.

Nebraska returns Ndamukong Suh, and that's great. It really is. Pierre Allen's also a good rush end. Steinkuhler #19 was a big-time recruit. Et cetera. I am fully willing to believe that NU has the best D-line in the division. But let's not pretend like this is the best D-line in the conference, or the country, or anything. Most people, when they talk about how Nebraska is obviously the best team in the North now, tend to overstate the D-line's exploits a bit. But while they were 9th in the country in Adjusted Sack Rate, they were only 48th in Line Yards+ (meaning, they were great rushing the passer but thoroughly mediocre against the run). Nebraska's Rushing Defense S&P+ was 60th in the country last year. They really do probably have the best DL in the division this year, but let's rein in the expectations a bit here.

Kansas returns three DL starters from their solid unit, so they should continue to improve; meanwhile Iowa State can build around a solid pair in DT Nate Frere and DE Rashawn Parker. Kansas State returns Brandon Harold and welcomes a potential new star in Virginia transfer (well, more of a drop-out, really) Jeffrey Fitzgerald.

Oh yeah, and the returning leading tackler on CU's D-line is DT Curtis Cunningham. He had 7.5 tackles in 2008. ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins has recruited well here, but the experienced players have little to no talent, and the talented players have little to no experience.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Kansas
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State
Colorado

I'll be more impressed when he actually does something against Missouri for once, ahem...whoops, did I say that?

Linebackers

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#34)
Colorado (#36)
Kansas (#49)
Kansas State (#75)
Iowa State (#98)

Sean Weatherspoon returns, so...yeah, #1 is staying the same. Nebraska has experience in guys like Blake Lawrence and 17th-year senior Phillip Dillard, and they've got young potential in guys like Will Compton. There isn't a star in the mix here, but this should be a solid unit. Jeff Smart and Brad Moehler return to anchor a solid LB unit in Boulder. Iowa State's unit still won't be very good, but it has experience in guys like Jesse Smith and Fred Garrin.

Kansas? No returning starters (beyond Arist Wright and his six career starts). Kansas State? No returning talent. I mean, you figure Bill Snyder will milk the most he can out of them, but still...

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Nebraska
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State

SPOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON...

Defensive Backs

2008 Rankings

Colorado (#13)
Kansas (#23)
Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#31)
Kansas State (#62)
Iowa State (#109)

Due probably to their strength of schedule (they played a LOT of good offenses), Colorado's secondary actually ranked quite high in 2008. They lose tackling machine Ryan Walters, but they do return a pair of solid corners in Cha'Pelle Brown and Jalil Brown (no relation...I think?). As thin as they are at LB, Kansas is deep at DB, returning, well, basically everybody you can name. Darrell Stuckey, Justin Thornton, Phil Strozier, Chris Harris, Daymond Patterson.

That's right, Missouri clocked in at #28. Again, think of strength of schedule here. They faced every good offense in the conference except Texas Tech, plus they took on Illinois and Nevada in non-conference. Close your eyes, and continue telling yourself that they weren't as bad as you want to think. You'll sleep better at night. Regardless of how they may have been in 2008, they are certainly in flux this year. William Moore is a loss, but we didn't really maximize his talents that much anyway, I guess.

Nebraska returns basically everybody but Armando Murrillo in the secondary, so they'll hop Missouri here. K-State was pretty far back in the rankings, and while, again, Snyder will coach them up (it's hard to tell how much talent KSU actually has since their coaching was so terrible...THEY WERE SOLD A BILL OF GOODS...sorry, was channeling Beef there), they probably won't make up the gap. And...sheesh. Think of how bad ISU's secondary would have been without stud freshman Leonard Johnson!

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Colorado
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas State
Iowa State

I'm not going to lie. I wish Darrell Stuckey were on my team.

DEFENSE SUMMARY

Add that up, and what do you get?

Tentative 2009 Defensive Ranking

1. Nebraska (6)
2T. Missouri (8)
2T. Kansas (8)
4. Colorado (11)
5. Iowa State (14)
6. Kansas State (16)

Kind of an interesting order.

Since there are three units on defense and four on offense, let's weight them equally by multiply all the defensive scores by 1.33.

1. Nebraska (8)
2T. Missouri (10.7)
2T. Kansas (10.7)
4. Colorado (14.7)
5. Iowa State (18.7)
6. Kansas State (21.3)

Special Teams

I'm going to freelance on this one. Still not making a lot of headway on special teams rankings.

2008 Rankings

1. Missouri
2. Nebraska
3. Kansas
4. Iowa State
5. Kansas State
6. Colorado

Of the four primary, most easily-definable special teams positions--kicker, punter, kick returner, punt returner--Mizzou loses three in Jeff Wolfert, Jeremy Maclin, and Jeremy Maclin. Nebraska returns a good kicker in Alex Henery and a good kick returner in Niles Paul, and they'll move up to #1. Kansas returns an average punter, a decent punt returner, and a good kicker but loses Marcus Herford at kick returner. Iowa State returns everybody from a mediocre unit, and Colorado loses returner Josh Smith while returning average punter Matt DiLallo and downright poor kicker Aric Goodman.

Bottom line here: Nebraska's special teams unit is rather proven; everybody else's is iffy. So it's like 1st place, a four-way tie for 2nd, and Colorado in 6th.

Projected 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Iowa State
Kansas
Missouri
Kansas State
Colorado

Coaching

I'm not even sure I want to touch this one. Gary Pinkel has led Mizzou to five bowls in six years, which, considering the recent history, is an amazing accomplishment. He has never finished below Mark Mangino's team in the standings. He just led Mizzou to their first ever North division title...and then did it again. Missouri's 30 wins in three seasons are a record. And yet he continuously gets ranked, at best, in the middle of the pack among Big 12 coaches. He did a terrible job in 2004, and he's still paying for it today, I guess. Anyway, because of the differences of opinion just with my own team's coach, I'm going to use something I used in the Illinois BTBS preview: Pythagorean Records. I will rank these coaches solely on that, and really, for everybody but Bill Snyder and Paul Rhoads, this makes sense--their abilities as it pertains to developing or recruiting talent have already been accounted for somewhat by all of the rankings above. They shouldn't get double credit. Instead, the Pythagorean record accounts for the difference between talent and execution (measured by point differential) and wins/losses.

Gary Pinkel since 2002 (I don't have 2001 in my database yet): 55-34. Pythagorean wins projection: 55.87. Difference per year: -0.12 wins.
Mark Mangino since 2002: 45-41. Pythagorean wins projection: 46.15. Difference per year: -0.15.
Bill Snyder from 2002 to 2005: 31-19. Pythagorean wins projection: 34.80. Difference per year: -0.99.
Dan Hawkins since 2006: 13-24. Pythagorean wins projection: 14.47. Difference per year: -0.82.
Bo Pelini since...well...how should we do this? One year is not a sample size, so I'm not sure I have a choice but to tack on his last two years as DC at LSU just so I can get at least a three-year sample size here. So since 2006: 32-8 (with a major asterisk). Pythagorean wins projection: 29.63. Difference per year: +0.79.
Paul Rhoads: 0-0. (Difference: 0.0!)

So even sticking Rhoads in last place because he's a first-year coach, this gives you some interesting results. Being that I'm petrified of Bill Snyder, I'm breaking my own "Numbers, not opinions" rule here and making him #1. I hate giving a second-year coach the #2 spot, but hey...whatever gets NU fans off my back.

2009 Projected Rankings

Kansas State
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas
Colorado
Iowa State

OVERALL

Total Projection Points

Kansas (26.7)
Missouri (26.7)
Nebraska (27.0)
Iowa State (40.7)
Kansas State (43.3)
Colorado (45.7)

So again, the point of this exercise was to figure out where the discussion should start. If you want to believe Nebraska's "back," then believe it. If you want to think Colorado really is going to break this year, feel free. If you believe that the only reason Derrick Washington and the Mizzou O-line seemed strong in 2008 was because of Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Coffman (and that any thought of Mizzou doing well in 2009 is wishful thinking and OMG PHIL STEELE THINKS YOU ARE TEH SUCK!!!), go right ahead and believe it. But those are all opinions--sticking as closely as possible to facts, stats, and proven commodities (and it's impossible to stick only to that without at least some of your own opinions bleeding through), you see a rather different picture than the one being painted in most conference previews.

Who knows what will happen, but the North shapes up to be a distinct three-team race in 2009, a race anybody can win. If Nebraska is "back" and winning the North again this year, they're going to have to earn it by winning on the road against two teams that match up very evenly with them. If Colorado is going to finally fulfill their "sleeper" potential, they're going to have to do it by sneaking past two teams that basically as proven (or unproven) as they are, plus maybe another team that is much more proven.

Bottom line: let the arguments begin.

Tuesday Buff Bites - No Big 12 Championships for the Buffaloes

irish1611 — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 16:58:17 -0000

League Supremacy - A Review of the Big 12 Standings
Husker Extra put together how each University finished every collegiate sport this season. The Texas Longhorns finished first overall, averaging a 3.47 finish in each of their sports they participated in. The Buffs...well, they had the worst performance of any Big 12 school this year, not winning a conference title in any sport, the first time that has happened since the beginning of the Big 12. The University of Colorado had a final standings number of 7.71 out of 12, finishing 12th in 5 out of the 14 sports they took part in. Hard to put a spin on any of that.

Scout.com: Preseason Class of 2010 Colorado Rankings - Top 30
Scout.com has released it's Top 30 in the 2010 recruiting class for the state of Colorado. Colorado commit Danny Spond ranks four on their list (I think that is too low). The Nebraska Cornhuskers may nab two of the top three prospects in Colorado with OL Mike Moudy committing earlier this spring and many believe Thunderridge OL, Dillon Bonnell, has the Huskers as his top choice. RB Mister Jones, ranked 8th on the scout list, seems to be the Buffs to lose.

Hawk talks about his 2009 Buffs and building a program
Chris Dempsey, as a follow up to his last Q&A session with Dan Hawkins, notes what Dan Hawkins thinks about his team in 2009. There is that obligatory mention of how bad things were before Dan Hawkins got to Colorado and how he has had to change everything (we know coach). Here is what he had to say about the actual football side of things:

"The offensive line, you’ve got eight players with starting experience," Hawkins said. "I think the tight end posse is going to be good. I think top-to-bottom, our tailback category is going to be good. We need some of these young receivers to help us out, but I do think we have two or three guys that are capable of doing some pretty good stuff.

"I think we’re going to be good in the back end, the secondary. I think we’re going to be good at linebacker. I think we’ve got to get some of those young d-linemen to help us out in there. (Kicker) Aric Goodman’s got a year under his belt. Matt DiLallo is punting the ball better. Now I think there’s a lot of things when you start looking at it and say it’s starting to form up here a little bit."

Buffing up: CU players adding muscle : Boulder Daily Camera
Ryan Thornburn checks up on the offseason program for the men's basketball team. It sounds like the veterans (still young in their own right) think highly of the newcomers, especially JUCO transfer, Marcus Relphorde, who should add versatility and athleticism to the inexperienced squad.

"They're all gym rats," Dufault said. "The three of them that are here right now love to be in the gym and working out. Marcus, being a junior-college guy, knows how to play. And we talk to the freshmen a lot about what it was like last year struggling. "It was not fun around here not winning games. I think they understand that we're trying to win next year and not have inexperience be an excuse." Dufault worked out with Sharpe and Burks on Monday morning. During evening pick-up games at the Coors Events Center the 6-7, 225-pound Relphorde is usually waiting for Dufault. "Marcus has really impressed me," said Dufault, who was listed at 210 pounds last season and weighed in at 220 on Monday. "I had never seen him play before he got here, but just the way he approaches the game, he's a really great competitor. He plays extremely hard all the time.

CU, CNGC To Host 2011 Men's Regional - cubuffs.com

It has been the home course of the University of Colorado golf teams for just over three months, but Colorado National Golf Club in Erie has already earned some top national recognition, as the course has been selected as one of six to host the 2011 NCAA men’s golf regionals.

This is great news for the golf program as the new course and this exposure will instantly benefit recruiting especially needed after two successful players in Derek Tolan and Patrick Grady graduated. Grady and Tolan were named honorable mention All-Americans by Golfweek earlier this month.

Current Colorado Buffaloes' Defensive and Special Teams Roster

irish1611 — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 19:38:30 -0000

Following our offensive roster chart, below is the 2009 Colorado Buffaloes' defensive and special team players. Compared to the offensive piece, this chart has a little more distribution between years of each position as well as depth oming down the 2010 pipeline unlike tight end and fullback on the offensive side of the ball.

Position		SENIORS	JUNIORS	SOPHOMORES	FRESHMEN	INCOMING Fr
DT		Taj Kaynor	Eric Lawson	C Cunningham	Will Pericak	Nate Bonsu
DT		Tyler Sale*	Eric Lawson	Eugene Goree	Will Pericak	Edward Nuckols
Sch	7	1	1	2	1	2
NSch	1	1
DE			M Herrod	Kevin Cooney*	Nick O'Neill*	Nick Kasa
			Joe Silipo*	David Goldberg*		J. Forrest West
				Conrad Obi		Sc Fernandez*
				Tony Poremba*
				Lagrone Shields
Sch	5		1	2		2
NSch	6		1	3	1	1
LB		Marcus Burton	Michael Sipili	Tyler Ahles	Jon Major	Liloa Nobriga
		Shaun Mohler	B.J. Beatty	*Brandon Gouin	Doug Rippy	Derrick Webb
		Jeff Smart		*Zackary Farley	*Guy Sergent	Geoff Sissom*
		*Bryan Stengel		Josh Hartigan
Sch	11	3	2	2	2	2
NSch	5	1		2	1	1
CB		Cha Brown	Jalil Brown	Jon Hawkins	Stephen Hicks	Deji Olatoye
		Ben Burney	Jimmy Smith	*Arthur Jaffee	Paul Vigo	Cody McAninch*
				Anthony Wright
Sch	9	2	2	2	2	1
NSch	2			1		1
S			*Bret Smith	Patrick Mahnke	Vince Ewing	Parker Orms
				*Erik Manarino	Ray Polk
				*Matt Meyer
				Anthony Perkins
				*T Sandersfeld
Sch	5			2	2	1
NSch	4		1	3		0
K			Aric Goodman	Jameson Davis		Z Grossnickle
P		Matt DiLallo
SN		J Drescher	Austin Bisnow
Sch	5	2	1	1		1
NSch	1	0	1
DEFENSIVE AND SPECIAL TEAMS TOTAL
Sch	42	8	7	11	7	9
NSch	19	2	3	9	2	3
Total	61	10	10	20	9	12
TEAM TOTAL
Sch	78	12	14	24	10	18
NSch	37	5	5	13	5	9
Total	115	17	19	37	15	27
*italics - transfer / - non-scholarship player**

The linebacking and cornerback spots are the class of the defense. The Buffs will have solid depth for many years at linebacker, assuming Jon Major recovers from his ACL injury and Doug Rippy continues to develop. I would expect the Buffs to take a couple more 'backers in the 2010 class to keep the continuity going. The linebacking depth is exactly what you want as a coach when you look at your group of players; a great mix of experience as well as young talent who are pushing the veterans. As for cornerback, the next two years look very solid as long as Jimmy Smith doesn't jump for the NFL early. I think he is still in need of all four years of college but if he has the year that I expect him to have, he may be tempted by the NFL scouts who would be drooling over a sub 4.5, 6'3" physical cornerback. After the next two years, the Buffs will need to get help at corner as you will be looking at all new starters after 2010 with not much known about the players behind the juniors and seniors.

The rest of the defensive positions, youth prevails. There are only three scholarship upperclassmen at defensive line and safety. The Buffs are young at safety with potential starters Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins both sophomores but they gained valuable experience as freshmen. Defensive line continues to be the main question mark on the defense mostly because we don't know what we are going to get from the underclassmen, who will be forced to play this year. Guys like Eugene Goree, Conrad Obi, Lagrone Shields, Curtis Cunningham, Nick Kasa, Edward Nuckols, Nate Bonsu, Will Pericak, Lagrone Sheilds, etc. haven't showed us a lot because they are all first or second year players. They might be great but the doubt surrouding them is one reasons many Buff fans wonder if the team will turn the corner and get to that 8+ win mark.

On special teams, the Buffs had to take a kicker in the 2009 class in Zach Grossnickle after the dismal performance last year. Grossnickle (both a placekicker and punter) may technically be the only punter on the team after this season with starter Matt DiLallo graduating. Special teams is another part of the equation that most Buff fans forget about but shouldn't in evaluating the possible success next year. You name it, it went wrong in 2008 so improved play is a must.

2009 - 2010 Buff Defense Class Breakdown

irish1611 — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 15:37:15 -0000

Here is the defensive class breakdown for the 2009 season as we stand today. Here is the offensive breakdown I posted last week. See analysis of the defensive squads after the jump...

2009 - 2010 Buff Defense Class Breakdown
2009 - 2010 Buff Defense Class Breakdown
Pos.	Senior	Junior	Sophomore	Freshman	Incoming
DT	Taj Kaynor	Eric Lawson	C Cunningham	Will Pericak	Nate Bonsu
DT	Tyler Sale*		Eugene Goree
DE		M Herrod	Lagrone Shields		Nosa Eguae
			Conrad Obi
			Tony Poremba*
			Kevin Cooney*
LB	Marcus Burton	BJ Beatty	Tyler Ahles	Lynn Katoa	None
	Shaun Mohler	Micheal Sipili	Josh Hartigen	Jon Major
	Jeff Smart	D Goldberg*	Brandon Gouin*	Doug Rippy
	Bryan Stengel*			G Sergent*
CB	C Brown	Jimmy Smith	Anthony Wright		Deji Olatoye
	Ben Burney	Jalil Brown	J Hawkins
			Lamont Smith
S		Bret Smith*	Patrick Mahnke	S Hicks	Parker Orms
			A Perkins	Vince Ewing
			T Sandersfield*	Paul Vigo***
			Matt Meyer*
P	Matt DiLallo
K		Aric Goodman	Jameson Davis
SP	J Drescher	A Bisnow*
* walk on / potential medical redshirt / * grey shirt 2008 class
Total	10	10	17	8	5
%	20.0%	20.0%	34.0%	16.0%	10.0%
Scholarship	8	7	12	7	5
Walk On	2	3	5	1	0

As you can see again, the sophomore class is, once again, extremely large compared to the other classes. Combining the offensive chart's 18 sophomore players, 35 of the total 100 players are in year number 2. If you add in incoming freshman, 63 of the total players are underclassmen. No excuses, right?

Just don't look at the defensive line spots. The Buffs seem to be in a good position on the offensive line, especially with the two new additions in the 2009 class. If they could add one more offensive lineman for depth, I feel good about that unit for the next 2 - 3 years. It is just the opposite for the defensive line. They all might be players but the fact that we haven't seen any substantial results from these guys scares me to death. Their are clearly depth issues as well. The fact that the front four were dead tired in the Nebraska game and the coaching staff refused to substitute any of these guys for a substantial period would conclude that this year could be a struggle upfront. Right now, the Buffs don't seem to be in on a ton of DL and DE which is extremely troubling. If the Buffs could get 2 - 3 JUCO players to fill this void, it would go a long way to solidifying the defense.

For as much as the defensive front might be a worry, the linebacker and corner positions must make all CU fans smile. LB coach Brian Cabral has a ton of talent to work with at the linebacker spot. The X factor of this whole unit will be Katoa and Major. If Katoa can right the ship and Major can fully recover from the ACL injury, this unit could be the best in the Big 12. If the defensive line situation does not improve, look for guys like B.J. Beatty, Marcus Burton and Michael Sipili to be a pseudo-defensive end/rush end all year. In the defensive backfield, the Buffs are young at safety but Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke showed that they have some talent and stepped in pretty well as freshman last year. The Buffs will also get 2008 grey shirt S Paul Vigo in this year as well as S Steven Hicks and S Vince Ewing to add depth. You might also seem some slotted at corner back make the move back to safety (Jalil Brown would be a likey candidate to get more playmakers on the field). CU is also in on a few other safeties in the 2009 recruiting class that would provide much needed depth on both defense and special teams.

Now to the corners. This could rival the linebacker spot for the best unit on the team. Cha'pelle Brown and Ben Burney (2007 starter who was injured last year) return as well as juniors Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith. Smith really stepped up last year and played a ton down the stretch. He looks to be piecing together the consistency that goes with playing corner as he has all of the physical attributes that you crave in a corner. The Buffs will play some good receivers next year and I expect Smith to be on all of them. If we could only generate a pass rush!

I am not going to talk about punters and kickers because we all know we need new one(s).

In summation, we can see the depth starting the build in certain spots but their are still some major concerns at a few positions: defensive line, wide receiver (could be fixed if Josh Smith progresses, Andre Simmons qualifies and Diante Jackson becomes a Buff) and can the Buffs win with their current situation at quarterback?

The Fog of '09 - North Defenses

Bill C. — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:00:04 -0000

Yesterday, it was North Offenses. Today, North Defenses.

Defensive Lines

Nebraska (DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Pierre Allen)
Kansas (DE Jake Laptad, DT Richard Johnson, DT Caleb Blakesley)
Missouri (DT Jaron Baston, DE Brian Coulter, DE Jacquies Smith)
Kansas State (DE Brandon Harold, DT Daniel Calvin)
Iowa State (DE Rashawn Parker, DT Nate Frere)
Colorado (DE Jason Brace, ?)

That's right, Ndamukong Suh still has eligibility left--feels like he's been having an up-and-down season for Nebraska since about 2003--and he and Pierre Allen should make a pretty solid DL for the Huskers. KU returns a decent amount, and while their unit will be far from spectacular, it will be steady and reliable. Missouri has a lot of potential at DE with Coulter and Smith, but they still have to replace a lot of career starts.

Linebackers

Missouri (Sean Weatherspoon--for now, Luke Lambert)
Nebraska (Phil Dillard, Blake Lawrence)
Colorado (Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler)
Iowa State (Jesse Smith, Fred Garrin, Cameron Bell)
Kansas State (Olu Hall, Ulla Pomele)
Kansas (?)

I think Sean Weatherspoon will return, but I could be wrong. If he doesn't...well, MU probably doesn't fall very far because NOBODY will have tremendous LBs in 2009. Jeff Smart is solid, but that's really all CU has. Smith and Garrin have had their moments at ISU, but...yeah, they're still only average. NU returns Phil Dillard and some youngsters with potential, and if 'Spoon is in the NFL in 2009, that should give NU the best unit.

Defensive Backs

Kansas State (CB Joshua Moore, CB Blair Irvin, S Courtney Herndon)
Iowa State (CB Leonard Johnson, S James Smith)
Nebraska (S Rickey Thenarse, S Larry Asante)
Kansas (CB/S Chris Harris, S Darrell Stuckey, CB Daymond Patterson)
Missouri (CB Carl Gettis, S Kenji Jackson)
Colorado (CB Cha'pelle Brown, ?)

Oy. If there's one reason why North offenses should still be pretty successful in 2009, it's because nobody in the North returns a quality secondary. I'm probably underrating the Missouri secondary here--Iowa State game aside, Castine Bridges hasn't been anything special in '08, and there won't be a huge dropoff to Kevin Rutland or one of the RSFrs. Meanwhile, Missouri fans are loving them some Kenji Jackson. But only Carl Gettis will be proven.

Also, I might be overrating Iowa State, but I love me some Leonard Johnson.

North Defenses, 2009

Nebraska (15)
Missouri (12)
Kansas State (11)
Iowa State (10)
Kansas (9)
Colorado (6)

As with the offenses, each North defense will have its strengths and weaknesses...but not a lot of strengths. Nebraska scores the best, and they're returning only about six starters. Missouri loses William Moore and most of its D-line, and they still might have the best North defense. Iowa State's D was brutal in '08, and they actually score pretty well here. Big-time tossup. A lot will come down to matchups and schedules...so after we look at special teams, we'll look at that.

Special Teams

Iowa State (K Grant Mahoney, P Mike Brandtner, KR/PR's Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell)
Nebraska (K Alex Henery, KR/PR Niles Paul)
Colorado (KR/PR Josh Smith, P Matt DiLallo, K Aric Goodman)
Kansas State (KR/PR Deon Murphy, P George Pierson)
Missouri (P Jake Harry, K Tanner Mills)
Kansas (PR Daymond Patterson, K Jacob Branstetter, P Alonso Rojas)

Honestly, only ISU has a relatively complete special teams unit. I'm optimistic that Missouri's return game will still be decent with Gahn McGaffie or whoever ends up back there, but that's me projecting greatness on newcomers...so for now they're stuck low on the list. Colorado has a solid return man in Smith, but no kickers. KSU has a solid return man in Murphy, but no kickers. Kansas...yeah, same.

Coaches

Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

Mizzou could lose either or both coordinators, but I think this is where continuity pays off--the guys under the coordinators (Yost, Hill, Steckel, etc.) basically share the same brain as Eberflus and Christensen, so I'm not tremendously worried about losing the OC and DC. Then again, I'm a homer. KU took a lengthy step backwards after losing last year's DC, so who knows? All I know is this: in the last two years, Gary Pinkel has blown up the "Pinkel Effect". It no longer exists

So if we're going to add together all my admittedly arbitrary unit rankings (offense, defense, special teams, coaching), we end up with these standings.

2009 North Rankings

Missouri (40 points)
Nebraska (39)
Kansas (33)
Kansas State (30)
Iowa State (25)
Colorado (22)

Very loosely, there's a top tier (MU, NU, KU) and a bottom tier (KSU, ISU, CU). And obviously, there are question marks here. Is QB worth more than the other units? Then KU gets a bump up. Is there a "continuity of personnel" factor that will hurt Missouri (and possibly Nebraska)? Am I understating Colorado's potential with their solid recruiting classes? But we'll go with this for now.

-- Schedules --

Colorado

10/10 - at Texas
10/17 - Kansas
10/24 - at Kansas State
10/31 - Missouri
11/7 - Texas A&M
11/14 - at Iowa State
11/21 - at Oklahoma State
11/28 - Nebraska

South schedule: @ UT, @ OSU, ATM. That screams "1-2."

North home slate: KU, MU, NU. That's a good slate to have next year. I obviously don't expect much out of Colorado in '09, but they'll most likely go at least 1-2 in those games. I guess I'll say they beat KU, since KU's the lowest-ranked of the three.

North road slate: @ KSU, @ ISU. Not a good slate to have next year. Getting KSU and ISU at home would probably mean two wins, but on the road is a different story.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6

Iowa State

10/3 - vs Kansas State (at Arrowhead)
10/10 - at Kansas
10/17 - Baylor
10/24 - at Nebraska
10/31 - at Texas A&M
11/7 - Oklahoma State
11/14 - Colorado
11/21 - at Missouri

South schedule: BU, @ ATM, OSU. If ISU's defense takes a step forward, then they'll probably beat Baylor and at least have a chance against ATM. Even though Baylor will be pretty decent next year, I'll say ISU wins that game and goes 1-2.

North home slate: CU. They lose the KSU game to Arrowhead. The ISU-KSU could very well be a "winner goes 6-6 and slips into a bowl" situation, and as you see, they could be pretty evenly-matched. For no reason whatsoever, I say ISU goes 2-2 in these games.

North road slate: @ KU, @ NU, @ MU. Ouch. 0-3.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5

Kansas

10/10 - Iowa State
10/17 - at Colorado
10/24 - Oklahoma
10/31 - at Texas Tech
11/7 - at Kansas State
11/14 - Nebraska
11/21 - at Texas
11/28 - vs Missouri (still at Arrowhead, right?)

South schedule: OU, @ Tech, @ UT. I really hope KU fans enjoyed 2007. 0-3.

North home slate: ISU, NU, vs Mizzou. Assuming KU-MU is once again at Arrowhead, this once again hurts KU. Instead of getting both NU and MU at home, they get one on a neutral field. I say they beat ISU and NU, and naturally (ahem) lose to MU. 2-1.

North road slate: @ CU, @ KSU. They're not losing both of these, and since I already have them losing to CU, I guess that means they beat KSU. 1-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5. It's amazing what scheduling can do.

Kansas State

10/3 - at Iowa State
10/10 - at Texas Tech
10/17 - Texas A&M
10/24 - Colorado
10/31 - at Oklahoma
11/7 - Kansas
11/14 - Missouri
11/21 - at Nebraska

South schedule: @ Tech, ATM, @ OU. ATM is a big game, but I say KSU wins it. 1-2.

North home slate: CU, KU, MU. It would not at all surprise me to see a young Mizzou team slip up on the road, so we'll arbitrarily say it happens in Manhattan. That makes KSU 2-1 here.

North road slate: vs ISU, @ NU. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5.

Missouri

10/3 - Nebraska
10/17 - at Oklahoma State
10/24 - Texas
10/31 - at Colorado
11/7 - Baylor
11/14 - at Kansas State
11/21 - Iowa State
11/28 - vs Kansas

South schedule: @ OSU, UT, BU. Gotta figure that's 1-2, though obviously Baylor will not be a pushover.

North home slate: NU, ISU. The NU game will be ha-yoooge. But tie goes to the home team, right? 2-0.

North road slate: vs KU, @ CU, @ KSU. Beat KU and CU, randomly lose to KSU. 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 5-3.

Nebraska

10/3 - at Missouri
10/17 - Texas Tech
10/24 - Iowa State
10/31 - at Baylor
11/7 - Oklahoma
11/14 - at Kansas
11/21 - Kansas State
11/28 - at Colorado

South schedule: TT, @ BU, OU. Hmm. No to BU and OU, but I think they'll take out Tech. 1-2.

North home slate: ISU, KSU. 2-0.

North road slate: @ MU, @ KU, @ CU. We'll say 1-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 4-4.

Standings

Missouri 5-3
Nebraska 4-4
Kansas 3-5 (brutal schedule)
Kansas State 3-5
Iowa State 3-5
Colorado 2-6

Summary

It won't surprise me if the preseason mags pick KU (because of Reesing) or NU (because they're Nebraska) to win the North, and with the loss of Daniel, Maclin, Coffman, etc., it would very much surprise me to see anybody actually picking Mizzou. But although I may be overrating Mizzou in the rankings, there's no question that getting NU at home and KU in KC gives them the scheduling advantage here. In a three-team North race, it could come down to home-field advantage, and there's now no question in my mind that a third straight division title, if not a gimme by any means, is within reach, even in a rebuilding year.

But don't hold me to any of that.

Category	Stat	Rank (out of 120)
Field Goal %	35.30%	120th
Avg Yards/Punt	39.61	66th
PAT %	96.80%	56th
Punt Return Yds Against	10.52	82nd
Kickoff Return Yds Against	25.97	114th

Opponent	Play	Result	Total Points
Colorado State	Kickoff TD	CSU Kickoff Return TD	-7
Eastern Washington	Missed Field Goal	Goodman Missed Field Goal	-3
Eastern Washington	Buffs Fumble	Josh Smith fumble, Led to EWU TD	-7
Florida State	Missed Field Goal	Goodman Missed Field Goal	-3
Florida State	Jfly Bonehead Return	Smith Gets tackled at the 4, led to safety, field goal	-5
Florida State	Kickoff TD	FSU returns kickoff 94 yards	-7
Texas	Missed Field Goal	Goodman Missed Field Goal	-3
Texas	Missed Field Goal	Goodman Missed Field Goal	-3
Texas	Missed Field Goal	Goodman Missed Field Goal	-3
Kansas St	Missed Field Goal	Goodman Missed Field Goal	-3
Kansas St	Missed Field Goal	Goodman Missed Field Goal	-3
Missouri	Punter Fumble	Suazo Drops the Ball on Own 5 yd line, TD Mizzou	-7
Missouri	Bad Punt	DiLallo 23 yard punt before half leads to FG	-3
Missouri	Bad Punt/Cov	DiLallo 34 yard punt, returned 30 yards, net 4 yd punt, TD Mizzou	-7
Missouri	Bad Punt/Cov	Suazo 33 yd punt, returned to CU 39, TD Mizzou	-7
Texas A&M	Missed Field Goal	Goodman Missed Field Goal	-3
Iowa State	Missed Field Goal	J Davis Missed Field Goal	-3
Iowa State	Missed Field Goal	J Davis Missed Field Goal	-3
Iowa State	Blocked Ex Point	Goodman Blocked Extra Point	-1
		TOTAL	-81
		TOTAL/GAME	-8.1

SB Nation - Matthew DiLallo

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Big 12 North Roulette Edition Recap

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Colorado Buffaloes Team Capsule

What is your regular season win prediction for the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009?

10 wins +: Gotta go with Coach Hawkins, he set the bar, anything less would be a disappointment

8 - 9 wins: very solid year, outside chance at the Big 12 North, top tier bowl game

7 wins: an improvement, still too many holes to challenge for a North title but still bowling

6 wins: squeak into a bowl game but with an empty feeling, still have a ways to go to be competitive each week

5 or less wins: not enough playmakers, too many holes, more of the same in Boulder. 2010 here we come

'Twas the Night Before Camp

What position battle are you most excited to see play out this fall?

Quarterback

Wide Receiver

Linebacker

Running Back

Defensive Line

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Defenses

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

DEFENSE SUMMARY

Special Teams

Coaching

OVERALL

Tuesday Buff Bites - No Big 12 Championships for the Buffaloes

Current Colorado Buffaloes' Defensive and Special Teams Roster

Top Spring Ball Questions: Are the Kickers' Confidence Shot?

2009 - 2010 Buff Defense Class Breakdown

2009 - 2010 Buff Defense Class Breakdown

DT

DE

LB

CB

S

P

SP

The Fog of '09 - North Defenses

Defensive Lines

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

North Defenses, 2009

Special Teams

Coaches

2009 North Rankings

-- Schedules --

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Missouri

Nebraska

Standings

Summary