SB Nation - Ryan Walters

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

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Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

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Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Colorado Buffaloes Team Capsule

irish1611 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 08:36:59 -0000

If the Buffs are to realize their goals for 2009, Cody Hawkins' and the entire offenses' performance much improve from their 95th total offense ranking a year ago.

View full size photo »

Coach: Dan Hawkins enters his third season at Colorado (13-24, 0 - 1 in postseason).
Coaching Changes: Offensive Coordinator Eric Kiesau (replaces Mark Helfrich - Oregon), Offensive Line Coach Denver Johnson (replaces Jeff Grimes - Auburn), Defensive Consultant/Linebackers Bob Foster added to roster, Dan Hawkins to coach Wide Receivers.
2008 Record: 5-7 overall, 2-6 in Big 12
Players Returning with '08 Starts:
- Offense: 15 - WR Scotty McKnight, LT Nate Solder, LG Blake Behrens, RT Matthew Bahr, TE Riar Geer, TE Ryan Deehan, QB Cody Hawkins, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Rodney Stewart, RB Demetrius Sumler, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Darrell Scott, FB Jack Behrens, OG Ryan Miller, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner.
  - 64% (85 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Defense: 9 - DE Marquez Herrod, LB Jeff Smart, LB Shaun Mohler, CB Cha'pelle Brown, S Anthony Perkins, S Patrick Mahnke, CB Jimmy Smith, CB Jalil Brown, LB Michael Sipili
  - 39% (51 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Special teams: 2 - P Matt DiLallo, PK Aric Goodman.
Key Positions to Replace From 2008 - Defensive Line, Center, Safety
Key Losses from 2008: LB Brad Jones, S Ryan Walters, DT George Hypolite, DT Brandon Nicolas, C Daniel Sanders, OG Devin Head.
Newcomers Who Might See Time in 2009: DE Nick Kasa, DT Nate Bonsu, LB Forrest West, WR Jarrod Darden, WR Will Jefferson, WR Terdema Ussery, WR Andre Simmons, K Zach Grossnickle.

OFFENSE

2008 OFFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Offense: 86^th overall, 10^th in Big 12 / Passing Offense: 81^st overall, 11^th in Big 12 / Total Offense: 95^th overall, 12^th in Big 12 / Scoring Offense: 100^th overall, 12^th in Big 12.

The 2008 season was an offensive performance to forget. A rash of injuries, inexperienced players at important positions and a lack of a consistent identity spelt trouble for the Colorado Buffaloes. With the 2009 season just around the corner, a more experienced unit overall plus a healthy group of linemen up front has many hoping that the Buffs will reverse the lackluster offensive performance of the past few years. That being said, there are still plenty of question marks that still need to be answered.

the rest of the offensive, defensive, Q&A and win/loss predictions after the jump....

NEW FACES BRINGS NEW SCHEMES: One of the headlines coming into the 2009 season was the changes to the offensive staff. Joining the Colorado Buffaloes this offseason was offensive line coach Denver Johnson, who previously held the Illinois State head coaching job. Replacing Jeff Grimes, Johnson has seemed to endear himself to the fan base, preaching to bring back a more smash mouth style of football, playing on the opposition's side of the ball and putting the five linemen on the field. Such was displayed with Johnson's decision to move Ryan Miller to guard to make way for OT Blake Behrens. Johnson inherits a unit with no seniors but full of talent and a reason to be optimistic about the program's future. If Johnson can quickly& successfully implement his system with this young but relatively experienced offensive line, Buff fans should brace for a much improved offensive performance in 2009. The good news for the new coach is, unlike last year, his unit looks much healthier. Back from injury/off the field issues is Miller, OG Ethan Adkins, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner (mid season return expected) and C Mike Iltis; all of whom will be battling for a starting spot.

Their was also a shake up at the top with former wide receivers and assistant head coach, Eric Kiesau, taking over as offensive coordinator for Mark Helfrich. The season opener against Colorado State will mark the first game which Eric Kiesau has owned the game plan and called the plays on game day. Last season, the Buffs failed to establish any sort of identity, attempting to run the spread with a youthful, injured team that lacked game changing playmakers. Kiesau has said to want to bring back a more "pro-style" offense that allows for more power football, the use of tight ends and a progression based passing game, three traits that bode well for the strengths of CU's offense.

Head coach Dan Hawkins will take over the wide receiver coaching duties replacing Kiesau. Ashley Ambrose will assist Hawkins with the wide receivers and should take over in the near future.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: With WR Markques Simas suspended for the first two games of the season, junior college transfer WR Andre Simmons qualifying status up the air as of Thursday, August 18^th, the lone remaining experienced receiver on the Buffs' roster is Scotty McKnight. Not labeled as an explosive receiver, the Buffs need him to continue to be the steady force and over achieve on his prior two seasons considering the Buffs might not have a lot elsewhere to provide production. Colorado might get some production out of true freshman Will Jefferson, Jarrod Darden and Terdema Ussery but McKnight might be the best and only experienced option in 2009.

In an obvious choice, QB Cody Hawkins, who looks to have the edge in the quarterback race, needs to improve from 2008. The lack of playmakers currently at wide receiver does not bode well for increased production from Hawkins but tight end, running back and offensive line look to be improved from a year ago. If Hawkins can make better decisions and manage the offense through a strong running game, the passing game should open up. The key for Hawkins this year is to increase his completion percentage which was 57.2% in 2008, about 5% below the average junior quarterback % in 2008. Sustaining drives, keeping the defense off the field and converting on third downs will all improve with an increase in completions.

You could go running back here but with a stable of four in the backfield, the production looks to be there. Most Buff fans will look at the offensive line and hope that their health leads to more points. That being said, look to the tackle spots as players who need to play big in 2009. LT Nate Solder and RT Blake Behrens have the inside track at the two starting positions with the prospects of a bright future ahead of them. Solder, the athletically gifted converted tight end, has all the intangibles to be a dominant tackle while Behrens has similar intangibles and great footwork. Solder, due to his position change, and Behrens, due to being a redshirt freshman, will still have growing pains but if they are able to work through those early in the season, the offensive line has the makings to be special.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Hands down this was going to be WR Markques Simas or WR Andre Simmons before the former was suspended two games and the latter is still sitting on the sideline well into week two of fall ball due to admissions issues. The new impact newcomer may be WR Will Jefferson, who was an August 2009 signee. He has seen time with the first and second teams this fall and has impressed the coaches. The safe pick here, though, is Givens, who quickly inserted himself into the starting rotation this spring after gaining 20+ pounds to his true freshman frame. Givens has the ability to grow into a great one.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE OFFENSE: Running Back and Offensive Line. The Buffs boast one of the more loaded backfields in the Big 12 with sophomores Darrell Scott, Rodney Stewart and Brian Lockridge along with junior Demetrius Sumler. Stewart led the Buffs in rushing yards as a freshman and Sumler led the team in rushing touchdowns in 2008. Lockridge, a speedster, returns from injury after a serviceable 2007 freshman campaign and looks to be an added weapon that can be useful as a third down back and in the slot. But Darrell Scott still leads the ranks in the hype category. Supposedly in the best shape of his life at 220 pounds and fully recovered from his 2008 injury-plagued season, Scott looks to take a mulligan in 2009 and become an elite Big 12 back. Still, don't count out the other three, especially Rodney Stewart, who continues to impress. We do know one thing; running backs coach Darian Hagan will play the best man for the job regardless of preseason hype.

The offensive line has all the potential you could ask for to build a team around. They are big, fast, athletic, and will be around for a long time. Nate Solder is the veteran on the offensive line, sort of, checking in as a junior with all other players vying for starting spots coming in as either sophomores or redshirt freshmen. Solder and Ryan Miller lead the way in the size category coming at 6'9" 305 pounds and 6'8" 320 pounds respectively with Solder considered to be one of the most athletic players on the team, running a sub 5.0 second forty this offseason. C Mike Iltis looks to have the center spot locked down replacing Daniel Sanders from a year ago while Givens will man the right tackle spot. The only position that looks to be up for grabs at this point in time is the other guard spot. Ethan Adkins looks to have the upper hand but watch out for Blake Behrens and Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner, once he returns from his ACL injury, to push for time there. This unit is big, athletic, has depth and should be a bright spot in 2009 if they can protect the quarterback.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE OFFENSE: Wide Receiver and Quarterback. Wide receiver takes spots #1 and #2 in our weakness review. With Scotty McKnight the only player active who has caught a pass in a division one football game, the Buffs lack known quantities at the flanker spot. Markques Simas will hopefully return against Wyoming from suspension but with his academic ineligibility in 2008 coupled with the most current infraction, Buff fans should not count on anything. Andre Simmons, if admitted, should not be expected to be ready for the Colorado State game considering he has been sitting on the sideline for the last two weeks. Hopefully the Buffs can have both Simmons and Simas ready by the Wyoming game and can get production from one of the true freshman. Walk-on WR Jason Espinoza will also play a part in the offense. There are just not a lot of options at wide receiver this year.

Playmaking ability still remains a big concern on both sides of the ball. In 2008, the Buffs lacked explosiveness and with former WR Josh Smith transferring to UCLA, many players will be counted on to be a game changer that have not necessarily produced game changing results in the past. If the Buffs want to get to 7, 8 or 9 wins, Darrell Scott, Markques Simas, Rodney Stewart, Brian Lockridge, potentially Andre Simmons, one of the tight ends need to evolve into consistent threats on the offensive side of the ball.

DEFENSE

2008 DEFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Defense: 86^th overall, 9^th in Big 12 / Passing Efficiency Defense: 73rd overall, 5^th in Big 12 / Total Defense: 78^th overall, 4^th in Big 12 / Scoring Defense: 86^th overall, 8^th in Big 12.

2008 provided some surprises on the defensive side of the ball. A senior-laden defensive line was supposed to be the strength of the team with the cornerbacks the weak spot. Roles reversed and relatively speaking, the cornerback play exceeded expectations while the defensive line failed to meet expectations. Often thought of as "solid but not spectacular" last season, the defense is considered to be strong to very strong in the back seven in 2009 but inexperienced up front. Colorado's defense has the opportunity to be a top tier Big 12 squad if they can get solid play from the front four.

ADJUSTING AND MULTIPLE: No one knows really what the Buffs are going to do on defense this year. Dan Hawkins has kept the defense on the far side of the practice field this offseason out of the public eye, shut down practices because of the leaking of defensive formations on the internet and has even brought in Bob Foster, his past mentor at Cal-Davis, to add his defensive knowledge. As noted above and from what observers have seen, the Buffs look like they won't be afraid to mix up the base sets. The lack of known commodities up front might force Colorado to become more multiple, switching between the 3 - 4, 4 - 3 and even 3 - 3 - 5 defensive schemes. Such defensive looks are possible due to some exceptional depth at the linebacker and cornerback spots.

Defensive coordinator Ron Collins has preached this offseason that his goal is to get the 11 best players on the field and that might mean three down linemen. If the Buffs lineup with three, Collins will have to be creative in his blitz packages and cover schemes. Establishing quarterback pressure is the name of the game this year as last year the Buffs ranked 7^th in the conference in sacks, averaging on 2.0 a game.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: The Buffs need to replace 17 ½ sacks which is well over half of their total sack production from a year ago. Most are hoping that LB B.J. Beatty can replace last year's production of LB Brad Jones. Beatty showed, when healthy, that he has a nose for the football. If Colorado opts for a 3 - 4 defense, Beatty figures to play a prominent role as a rush end/stand-up outsider backer similar to what Brad Jones did for the '08 team. Again, with the major concern over who is going to get to the quarterback, players like B.J. Beatty are going to have to produce.

Marcus Burton is another player who is being counted on for a big year. An afterthought last year, Burton has rededicated himself to football and the 260 pound middle linebacker made his presence known this spring. Even though he was the biggest linebacker during offseason testing, Burton still produced the fastest forty time and showed great sideline to sideline range. Burton, considering with inexperience up front, will have a difficult job sifting through offensive linemen and being productive. Burton will have to be the anchor of the defense, especially in the early going of the season as the coaches try to figure out who will produce up front.

CB Jimmy Smith is the final player who needs to have a big year. With two inexperienced safeties in the Colorado secondary and a defensive line that is unproven, pass coverage will be at a premier this season. CB Cha'pelle Brown proved his worth last season. With CB Ben Burney returning from injury and CB Jalil Brown back from a successful 2008 campaign, the Buffs have plenty of depth at the position. But Jimmy Smith has the ability to change the game and shut down a side of the field on his own, making S Patrick Mahnke and S Anthony Perkin's life a lot easier. Smith, the 6'3" 200 pound NFL prototype cornerback, has the ability to be the best corner in the Big 12.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Early money was on DE Nick Kasa and DT Edward Nuckols due to the inexperience on the defensive line but with Kasa partially tearing his MCL and Nuckols failing to academically qualify, the Buffs will have to look elsewhere for immediate help. The most logical choice is now DT Nate Bonsu. The 6'1" 295 pound Allen, Texas product may just be forced into some early action.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE DEFENSE: Linebacker and Cornerback. Ask Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart about how strong the linebacker group is. Mohler and Smart were both starters a year ago and all conference awarded players. This year, they might be battling for one spot; and the Buffs may even add another linebacker position to run the 3 - 4. Marcus Burton impressed this offseason as did Michael Sipili, who will be competing for the middle linebacker job. Throw in the young but physically gifted Douglas Rippy and the potential of B.J. Beatty and this may be the deepest position on the Buffs team. And we didn't even mention Jon Major, a heavily recruited player from Colorado who tore his ACL last season as a true freshman.

A similar story at cornerback with 2007 starter Ben Burney returning to team up with Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith, all of whom started at least one game in 2008. Who starts against Colorado State will be fun to watch.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE DEFENSE: Defensive line, based purely on inexperience, not poor past performance. Gone are three seniors from a year ago and in are unproven players like DT Curtis Cunningham, DE Conrad Obi, DE Marquez Herrod, DT Eugene Goree, DT Tyler Sale, DT Will Pericak, DE Forrest West and DT Nate Bonsu. Nick Kasa may be in the mix after he recovers from the partial MCL tear.

Marquez Herrod will probably be a starter at defensive end but after that, it's anyone's guess. Curtis Cunningham played as a true freshman last season and made a few plays but he is still considered raw.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Last year's special team's performance was abysmal and should be a big point of emphasis this season if the Buffs' plan to be a player in the North. The departure of Josh Smith leaves a hole in the return game and 1,987 all purpose yards lost. The top candidates to fill the return role are Jason Espinoza, Rodney Stewart, Andre Simmons and Darrell Scott. K Aric Goodman returns, but he was just 5 for 14 on field goal attempts last season. The Buffs also return P Matt DiLallo who averaged 40.49 yards/punt last season while splitting time with Tom Suazo.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN AND QUICK HIT PREDICTIONS

Sept 5^th - Colorado St. Rams: The rivalry game is in Boulder, not in Denver, giving the Buffs a home field advantage. CSU will be breaking in a new quarterback and looks to have a weak front seven returning on defense. If CSU can get any quarterback play, it could be a dangerous game but expect the Buffs to load the box on defense. Prediction: W (1-0)
Sept 11^th - @ Toledo Rockets: the proverbial trap game with only five days rest. It is a Friday night game on the road against a team with a new coach; yes, a little scary. Like Colorado State, Toledo returns a lot of offensive line experience. Couple all of that with the dismal road record under Dan Hawkins (only 2 wins in three years) and the Buffs could be in more trouble than we would like to believe. That being said, Colorado has the more talented team and should win by double digits. Prediction: W (2-0)
Sept 19^th - Wyoming Cowboys: If the Buffs can start 2 - 0, they will have a nice eight day rest before hosting Wyoming at home who has little offensive identity even though former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave Christensen takes over the helm as new coach. Missouri has used Colorado as its punching bag the past two years but the Wyoming offense won't resemble Chase Coffman, Chase Daniel, Derrick Washington and Jeremy Maclin. Buffs need to win this one big. Prediction: W (3-0)
Oct 1^st - @West Virginia Mountaineers: This is a coin toss game. Both teams have 12 days to prepare with West Virginia coming off a tough game at Auburn the week before. West Virginia will be favored by 3 - 7 points so this is certainly a winnable game but on a Thursday night in Morgantown with the Buffs past lack of success on the road, I see a 3 - 1 start. Ask me again after week 2. Prediction: L (3-1)
Oct 10^th - @ Texas Longhorns: There are two "more than likely" road losses on the schedule which makes Dan Hawkins' "10 win expectation, not a guarantee" phrase possible. This is one of those games. Prediction: L (3-2)
Oct 17^th - Kansas Jayhawks: The Buffs should have three home games circled this year; Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. Three games that will dictate the degree of success in 2009. Win 2 or 3 of these games, expect Colorado football to be playing in strong bowl game. Lose all three, Colorado may once again be home for the holidays once again. Kansas QB Todd Reesing has been a Buff killer and the Jayhawks are expected to be a top 25 team when it is all said and done. Kansas has to replace some offensive linemen and linebackers so the Buffs should be in the game. Prediction: L (3-3)
Oct 24^th - @ Kansas St. Wildcats: Coming off three losses, this is a trap game that should be a Buff win. At 3 - 3, this game's outcome could determine if CU goes on to a winning record in the last half of the season or underachieves. If this is truly the year that we see changes in Boulder, Dan Hawkins' team should go into Manhattan and win. Since it is the offseason, let's be optimistic. Prediction: W (4-3)
Oct 31^st - Missouri Tigers: Halloween day in Boulder should be a wild scene. Mizzou could come into this game with a 3 - 4 record with both teams will have a lot riding on the game. The Buffs will have revenge on their mind after being utterly embarrassed the past two years losing by a combined score of 113 - 10. Many of the pieces from those two games are gone from Columbia and while Missouri fans are pushing the "Blaine Gabbert for Heisman" campaign already, this is the year for revenge. And one other thing, Missouri returns the fewest starters from a year ago in the Big 12 along with Nebraska Prediction: W (5-3)
Nov 7^th - Texas A&M Aggies: I believe most Colorado fans would take 5 - 3 at this point in the year considering Texas A&M and Iowa State are still on the schedule with Nebraska being an important swing game. Most will admit Colorado should have beaten A&M a year ago in College Station outplaying them for all but 5 or so minutes of that game. At home in Folsom, the Buffs should be on a roll coming off two wins. Could be a let down candidate if they don't respond after a big Missouri victory but this team is more experienced than prior teams. Prediction: W (6-3)
Nov 14^th - @ Iowa St. Cyclones: Last time the Buffs went to Ames, they laid an egg which once again makes predicting any road games as a win a risky prospect. Trust me, Buff fans won't be laying a lot of action on the first road game to Toledo. Hawkins will remind his team of how poorly they played a year ago at Folsom and the bad loss two years ago. Colorado has a chance to win four in a row heading into the last two weeks of the season. Prediction: W (7-3)
Nov 19^th - @ Oklahoma St. Cowboys: Even if the Buffs did have a full week's rest, this would be a loss but on the road with a short week against a top 10 contender, the Buffs' win streak ends here. Prediction: L (7-4)
Nov 27^th - Nebraska Cornhuskers: Eight wins sounds like paradise with the potential for nine in a bowl game. The Buffs will get more rest than the Huskers due to playing on a Thursday night against Oklahoma State and the Huskers have to travel to Boulder. Right now, this game is a toss-up but it is hard for me to see this Buffs team finishing with eight wins and it is equally hard to see the Huskers as a top 25 team. That being said, seven wins was my number for the Buffs all along. Eight is do-able as you can tell, nine is a stretch. You can also make a case for five or six wins. Prediction: L (7-5)

SB NATION BIG 12 BLOGGER'S ROUNDTABLE Q&A

1) Predicted Finish

Big 12 North

Kansas

Nebraska

Colorado

Missouri

Kansas State

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Oklahoma

Texas

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Texas Tech

Texas A&M

2) Who wins the Big 12 North?

~~Colorado Buffaloes Nebraska Cornhuskers~~ The Kansas Jayhawks...who knows, its wide open? Go get'em Buffs!

3) Who wins the Big 12 South?

The Oklahoma Sooners

4) How many Big 12 teams will be bowl eligible?

7 - Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State

5) Which conference team do you think will show the most improvement from last season (in record only)?

Baylor

6) Who is your Non-QB conference player of the year?

DL Gerald McCoy

7) Do you believe any Big 12 coaches will be gone (fired or hired elsewhere) after this season?

The ones I could see happening are Coach Hawk or Mike Gundy (but only with 5 wins or less and that won't happen for either.

8) What would you prefer as the Big 12's 3rd "best" bowl game? The Holiday or Alamo Bowl?

Holiday - San Diego is better than San Antonio in every way imaginable

9) Better D-Lineman, Suh or McCoy?

Gerald McCoy

10) Better Wide Receiver, Bryant or Briscoe?

Dez Bryant

11) Predict the worst non-conference loss (an upset) that the Big 12 will suffer.

Have to say Nevada upsetting Mizzou.

12) Predict the MNC participants and champion.

Florida def. Penn State (an embarrassment of a schedule)

Poll

What is your regular season win prediction for the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009?

10 wins +: Gotta go with Coach Hawkins, he set the bar, anything less would be a disappointment

18 votes

8 - 9 wins: very solid year, outside chance at the Big 12 North, top tier bowl game

185 votes

7 wins: an improvement, still too many holes to challenge for a North title but still bowling

86 votes

6 wins: squeak into a bowl game but with an empty feeling, still have a ways to go to be competitive each week

18 votes

5 or less wins: not enough playmakers, too many holes, more of the same in Boulder. 2010 here we come

9 votes

316 votes | Poll has closed

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Yesterday we took at look at what really was an impressively bad offense that Colorado put on the field in 2008. That the Buffs came within a game of bowl eligibility must speak volumes of their defense, right?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 110.1 (#33)
Success Rate+: 105.3 (#45)
PPP+: 116.1 (#34)

Standard Downs S&P+: 108.6 (#36)
Passing Downs S&P+: 124.0 (#15)

Redzone S&P+: 109.5 (#37)

Q1 S&P+: 107.0 (#43)
Q2 S&P+: 122.7 (#20)
Q3 S&P+: 98.4 (#62)
Q4 S&P+: 123.1 (#15)

1st Down S&P+: 108.7 (#37)
2nd Down S&P+: 102.3 (#52)
3rd Down S&P+: 135.5 (#8)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 103.1 (#56)
Rushing SR+: 102.6 (#53)
Rushing PPP+: 103.8 (#55)

Standard Downs: 101.7 (#58)
Passing Downs: 104.4 (#57)

Redzone: 96.2 (#76)

Line Yards+: 98.3 (#64)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.3 (#18)
Passing SR+: 107.1 (#34)
Passing PPP+: 125.0 (#18)

Standard Downs: 116.0 (#14)
Passing Downs: 129.9 (#15)

Redzone: 129.8 (#13)

Adj. Sack Rate: 5.9% (#61)

While the offense was almost universally bad in every category, the defense was a lot more interesting to analyze--quite a few ups and downs.

They were decent on Standard Downs and excellent on Passing Downs. When I see a team better on Passing Downs, I assume that their LB corps must be pretty good at blitzing, but that's a bit of a generalization.
This is reflected in the per-down numbers as well--they were mediocre on 2nd downs and great on 3rd downs.
Their best quarter: Q4. Makes sense if you think about it. A) They lost four games by 16 points or more, and in "non-close" situations, the trailing team usually has the advantage while the leading team is running the ball and killing the clock. B) When they were in close games down the stretch, they usually thrived. As mentioned yesterday, they were 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and while that ignores the Nebraska game--they were leading by one with two minutes left before Nebraska scored a quick 10 points that deceptively boosted the scoring margin--clearly they were still pretty good when the game was close.
While their success rates (efficiency) and PPP (explosiveness) were roughly the same in rushing defense, Colorado did see a decent split between their passing defense success rates (34th) and PPP (18th). That usually suggests relatively loose coverage and good tackling--you can get efficient, short gains against them, but you're not necessarily going to burn them deep a lot.
Neither line play measure was particularly impressive.

Defensive Line

Herrod (#90) is about the only returner who has made any plays whatsoever.

2008 Unit Ranking: #58 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Marquez Herrod (6'2, 265, Jr.)
DT Eugene Goree (6'1, 295, So.)
DT Taj Kaynor (6'5, 265, Sr.)
DE Conrad Obi (6'3, 265, So.)
DT Curtis Cunningham (6'1, 275, So.)
DE Lagrone Shields (6'3, 270, So.)
DT Will Pericak (6'4, 265, RSFr.)
DE Tony Poremba (6'1, 230, So.)

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the list above combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

Linebackers

Smart (#45)

2008 Unit Ranking: #36 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jeff Smart (6'0, 220, Sr.)
Shaun Mohler (6'3, 220, Sr.)
BJ Beatty (6'2, 220, Jr.)
Doug Rippy (6'1, 230, RSFr.)
Michael Sipili (6'1, 240, Jr.)
Jon Major (6'2, 225, RSFr.)
Marcus Burton (6'0, 260, Sr.)

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Secondary

Mighty mite Cha'pelle Brown is a rock-solid corner.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Cha'pelle Brown (5'7, 170, Sr.)
CB Jimmy Smith (6'2, 200, Jr.)
S Anthony Perkins (5'10, 200, So.)
S Patrick Mahnke (6'1, 205, So.)
CB Benjamin Burney (5'11, 190, Sr.)
CB Jalil Brown (6'1, 205, Jr.)
S Travis Sandersfeld (6'0, 205, So.)
S Ray Polk (6'1, 190, RSFr.)

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

Special Teams

Aric Goodman MUST improve in 2009.

2008 Unit Rankings: #80 Net Punting, #56 Punt Returns, #38 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Aric Goodman (5'10, 185, Jr.) - 30-for-31 PAT, 5-for-14 FG
P Matt DiLallo (6'1, 200, Sr.) - 34.0 Net Avg
KR - Rodney Stewart (5'7, 170, So.)
PR - Jason Espinoza (5'8, 175, So.)

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? I could probably manage to go about 2- or 3-for-14*, so he was only about six points better than me as a kicker. He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

* Okay, maybe 1-for-14. Fine, 0-for-14. I'd have kicked every ball directly into the ass of a lineman seven yards ahead of me.

Meanwhile, here's where Josh Smith's loss could possibly hit the hardest. Again, Smith wasn't all-conference material or anything, but while he averaged a decent 13.3 yards per catch (best among CU receivers), he was quite good in the return game, averaging 10.4 yards per punt return (point of reference: Jeremy Maclin averaged 11.0) and 25.5 per kick return (Maclin: 24.0) with 1 TD. Assuming he doesn't get coerced into staying in Boulder, then it looks like the early leaders to replace him are Rodney Stewart at KR and Jason Espinoza at PR. I have nothing valuable about whether they're any good at returning kicks, so instead I'll just point out that they're very little. So there you go.

Summary

As I mentioned in yesterday's intro, I'm trying as hard as I can not to be biased about Colorado. I think they're young enough that they really could be solid in 2010 and maybe 2011, but it's really annoying me that it appears writers are once again jumping the gun too early on them, picking them as a North sleeper for what I think is the fourth straight year. They've got a solid-not-flashy LB corps and potentially very good secondary. They've also got a lot of unproven potential at RB and on the O-line. But that's about it. They have nothing proven at WR or on the D-line, and unfortunately I think Cody Hawkins has proven a bit too much at QB. They would be better served floating under the radar for another year and figuring out what they have, particularly at WR. But instead, people are once again ranking them in the Top 40 and calling them a sleeper, meaning they'll be expected to produce a little earlier than I think they're capable of producing. Not that I'm losing sleep over these preseason picks or anything, but it's not fair to Colorado to expect anything major from them just yet--I've been wrong plenty of times before, but I think they're still a year away.

---

Projections on Friday. And I'm warning you now--as down as I appear to be on CU, the BTBS projections are infinitely more down on them. Shockingly down on them...to the point where I almost want to stick up for them a bit.

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Defenses

Bill C. — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:00:18 -0000

So yesterday we established that any discussion of Big 12 North Offenses in 2009 still revolved first around Kansas and Missouri. Now, we move on to the defense. We'll go through the exact same attempted numbers-over-biases analysis and see where that gets us.

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#26)
Nebraska (#42)
Kansas (#47)
Colorado (#58)
Iowa State (#79)
Kansas State (#96)

We all have a lot of confidence and optimism regarding Jacquies Smith, Brian Coulter, and Aldon Smith, but the facts--the known knowns--are that Missouri's DL loses three starters and will likely tumble a bit.

Nebraska returns Ndamukong Suh, and that's great. It really is. Pierre Allen's also a good rush end. Steinkuhler #19 was a big-time recruit. Et cetera. I am fully willing to believe that NU has the best D-line in the division. But let's not pretend like this is the best D-line in the conference, or the country, or anything. Most people, when they talk about how Nebraska is obviously the best team in the North now, tend to overstate the D-line's exploits a bit. But while they were 9th in the country in Adjusted Sack Rate, they were only 48th in Line Yards+ (meaning, they were great rushing the passer but thoroughly mediocre against the run). Nebraska's Rushing Defense S&P+ was 60th in the country last year. They really do probably have the best DL in the division this year, but let's rein in the expectations a bit here.

Kansas returns three DL starters from their solid unit, so they should continue to improve; meanwhile Iowa State can build around a solid pair in DT Nate Frere and DE Rashawn Parker. Kansas State returns Brandon Harold and welcomes a potential new star in Virginia transfer (well, more of a drop-out, really) Jeffrey Fitzgerald.

Oh yeah, and the returning leading tackler on CU's D-line is DT Curtis Cunningham. He had 7.5 tackles in 2008. ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins has recruited well here, but the experienced players have little to no talent, and the talented players have little to no experience.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Kansas
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State
Colorado

I'll be more impressed when he actually does something against Missouri for once, ahem...whoops, did I say that?

Linebackers

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#34)
Colorado (#36)
Kansas (#49)
Kansas State (#75)
Iowa State (#98)

Sean Weatherspoon returns, so...yeah, #1 is staying the same. Nebraska has experience in guys like Blake Lawrence and 17th-year senior Phillip Dillard, and they've got young potential in guys like Will Compton. There isn't a star in the mix here, but this should be a solid unit. Jeff Smart and Brad Moehler return to anchor a solid LB unit in Boulder. Iowa State's unit still won't be very good, but it has experience in guys like Jesse Smith and Fred Garrin.

Kansas? No returning starters (beyond Arist Wright and his six career starts). Kansas State? No returning talent. I mean, you figure Bill Snyder will milk the most he can out of them, but still...

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Nebraska
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State

SPOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON...

Defensive Backs

2008 Rankings

Colorado (#13)
Kansas (#23)
Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#31)
Kansas State (#62)
Iowa State (#109)

Due probably to their strength of schedule (they played a LOT of good offenses), Colorado's secondary actually ranked quite high in 2008. They lose tackling machine Ryan Walters, but they do return a pair of solid corners in Cha'Pelle Brown and Jalil Brown (no relation...I think?). As thin as they are at LB, Kansas is deep at DB, returning, well, basically everybody you can name. Darrell Stuckey, Justin Thornton, Phil Strozier, Chris Harris, Daymond Patterson.

That's right, Missouri clocked in at #28. Again, think of strength of schedule here. They faced every good offense in the conference except Texas Tech, plus they took on Illinois and Nevada in non-conference. Close your eyes, and continue telling yourself that they weren't as bad as you want to think. You'll sleep better at night. Regardless of how they may have been in 2008, they are certainly in flux this year. William Moore is a loss, but we didn't really maximize his talents that much anyway, I guess.

Nebraska returns basically everybody but Armando Murrillo in the secondary, so they'll hop Missouri here. K-State was pretty far back in the rankings, and while, again, Snyder will coach them up (it's hard to tell how much talent KSU actually has since their coaching was so terrible...THEY WERE SOLD A BILL OF GOODS...sorry, was channeling Beef there), they probably won't make up the gap. And...sheesh. Think of how bad ISU's secondary would have been without stud freshman Leonard Johnson!

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Colorado
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas State
Iowa State

I'm not going to lie. I wish Darrell Stuckey were on my team.

DEFENSE SUMMARY

Add that up, and what do you get?

Tentative 2009 Defensive Ranking

1. Nebraska (6)
2T. Missouri (8)
2T. Kansas (8)
4. Colorado (11)
5. Iowa State (14)
6. Kansas State (16)

Kind of an interesting order.

Since there are three units on defense and four on offense, let's weight them equally by multiply all the defensive scores by 1.33.

1. Nebraska (8)
2T. Missouri (10.7)
2T. Kansas (10.7)
4. Colorado (14.7)
5. Iowa State (18.7)
6. Kansas State (21.3)

Special Teams

I'm going to freelance on this one. Still not making a lot of headway on special teams rankings.

2008 Rankings

1. Missouri
2. Nebraska
3. Kansas
4. Iowa State
5. Kansas State
6. Colorado

Of the four primary, most easily-definable special teams positions--kicker, punter, kick returner, punt returner--Mizzou loses three in Jeff Wolfert, Jeremy Maclin, and Jeremy Maclin. Nebraska returns a good kicker in Alex Henery and a good kick returner in Niles Paul, and they'll move up to #1. Kansas returns an average punter, a decent punt returner, and a good kicker but loses Marcus Herford at kick returner. Iowa State returns everybody from a mediocre unit, and Colorado loses returner Josh Smith while returning average punter Matt DiLallo and downright poor kicker Aric Goodman.

Bottom line here: Nebraska's special teams unit is rather proven; everybody else's is iffy. So it's like 1st place, a four-way tie for 2nd, and Colorado in 6th.

Projected 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Iowa State
Kansas
Missouri
Kansas State
Colorado

Coaching

I'm not even sure I want to touch this one. Gary Pinkel has led Mizzou to five bowls in six years, which, considering the recent history, is an amazing accomplishment. He has never finished below Mark Mangino's team in the standings. He just led Mizzou to their first ever North division title...and then did it again. Missouri's 30 wins in three seasons are a record. And yet he continuously gets ranked, at best, in the middle of the pack among Big 12 coaches. He did a terrible job in 2004, and he's still paying for it today, I guess. Anyway, because of the differences of opinion just with my own team's coach, I'm going to use something I used in the Illinois BTBS preview: Pythagorean Records. I will rank these coaches solely on that, and really, for everybody but Bill Snyder and Paul Rhoads, this makes sense--their abilities as it pertains to developing or recruiting talent have already been accounted for somewhat by all of the rankings above. They shouldn't get double credit. Instead, the Pythagorean record accounts for the difference between talent and execution (measured by point differential) and wins/losses.

Gary Pinkel since 2002 (I don't have 2001 in my database yet): 55-34. Pythagorean wins projection: 55.87. Difference per year: -0.12 wins.
Mark Mangino since 2002: 45-41. Pythagorean wins projection: 46.15. Difference per year: -0.15.
Bill Snyder from 2002 to 2005: 31-19. Pythagorean wins projection: 34.80. Difference per year: -0.99.
Dan Hawkins since 2006: 13-24. Pythagorean wins projection: 14.47. Difference per year: -0.82.
Bo Pelini since...well...how should we do this? One year is not a sample size, so I'm not sure I have a choice but to tack on his last two years as DC at LSU just so I can get at least a three-year sample size here. So since 2006: 32-8 (with a major asterisk). Pythagorean wins projection: 29.63. Difference per year: +0.79.
Paul Rhoads: 0-0. (Difference: 0.0!)

So even sticking Rhoads in last place because he's a first-year coach, this gives you some interesting results. Being that I'm petrified of Bill Snyder, I'm breaking my own "Numbers, not opinions" rule here and making him #1. I hate giving a second-year coach the #2 spot, but hey...whatever gets NU fans off my back.

2009 Projected Rankings

Kansas State
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas
Colorado
Iowa State

OVERALL

Total Projection Points

Kansas (26.7)
Missouri (26.7)
Nebraska (27.0)
Iowa State (40.7)
Kansas State (43.3)
Colorado (45.7)

So again, the point of this exercise was to figure out where the discussion should start. If you want to believe Nebraska's "back," then believe it. If you want to think Colorado really is going to break this year, feel free. If you believe that the only reason Derrick Washington and the Mizzou O-line seemed strong in 2008 was because of Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Coffman (and that any thought of Mizzou doing well in 2009 is wishful thinking and OMG PHIL STEELE THINKS YOU ARE TEH SUCK!!!), go right ahead and believe it. But those are all opinions--sticking as closely as possible to facts, stats, and proven commodities (and it's impossible to stick only to that without at least some of your own opinions bleeding through), you see a rather different picture than the one being painted in most conference previews.

Who knows what will happen, but the North shapes up to be a distinct three-team race in 2009, a race anybody can win. If Nebraska is "back" and winning the North again this year, they're going to have to earn it by winning on the road against two teams that match up very evenly with them. If Colorado is going to finally fulfill their "sleeper" potential, they're going to have to do it by sneaking past two teams that basically as proven (or unproven) as they are, plus maybe another team that is much more proven.

Bottom line: let the arguments begin.

Rookie Mini-Camp Review: Are You Freaking Kidding Me Edition

Saintsational — Sat, 09 May 2009 12:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton, left, has flashbacks while watching Ryan Walters (26) from Colorado, during football minicamp at the team's training facility in Metairie, La., Friday, May 8, 2009. (AP Photo/Bill Haber)

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Day one of rookie mini-camp is officially in the books and Saints fans are none the wiser about what to expect from this years team. It's been nice getting a little taste of some action and having something to talk about but did we really learn anything from yesterday's workouts?

No.

Well...I take that back. We learned that the Saints installed three coverages via a Malcolm Jenkins press conference. Thanks Malcolm. Funny thing is he probably got an earful from Payton after that for saying too much. Jenkins will learn.

We also learned that the more things change, the more they stay the same. I'm talking about the Stanley Arnoux injury. And the John Halman injury. What in holy hell is going on here!?! The thought of having another promising season destroyed because of rampant injury is just too tough a pill to swallow. Not after last season. Not after this off-season. Not now. But 2009 seems to have picked up right where 2008 left off. If yesterday was any indication of the season to follow, the Saints will be lucky to finish 8-8.

I'm able to write this post calmly now because I took a step back to get some perspective. SERENITY NOW!! But when I first heard the news I was just as irate as the next guy. Who wouldn't be? Then, all that cautious optimism I've been preaching for months covered my body like a warm, protective blanket with two holes cut out just enough so I can see out. I've been expecting crap like this to happen so why should I be surprised because it's actually happening? Serenity now. I figure these early injuries can't really be blamed on the Saints strength and conditioning program since this was the first day of rookie practice. More likely it's just plain bad luck. What's worse is that there's nothing anybody can do about bad luck. You may just want to assume that this was an abberation, forget it ever happened and move on with the rest of your daydreaming. Honestly, you don't have a choice. As for me...everything is right on schedule.

Oh...and...uh...I told you so.

I've got some other notes from the events of yesterday. You can make the jump for a few of my favorite things (continuing the Sound of Music reference from yesterday).

Disrespecting the Deuce

I know some of us were freaking out about Colorado free agent safety Ryan Walters wearing #26 at practice yesterday. Calm down. It's just mini-camp. I also don't think anyone is going to want to wear the number if they're going to catch hell like this from most of Who Dat Nation.

It's gettin' hot in here, so take off all your...

Everyone was talking about the weather yesterday. More specifically, complaining about the heat. Big surprise there. We hear this every year.

It was a lot hotter than in New Jersey or Ohio.

-Malcolm Jenkins

I have to get used to the heat, but it was a great first day of practice.

-Chip Vaughn

Wusses. I live approximitely ten miles from the practice facility and yesterday was nothing. It was gorgeous out. If these guys think it was hot yesterday they're in for a rude awakening this August. They ought to be more like punter Thomas Morstead. He's a real man.

I'm excited about this weather actually. I'm from Houston so I'm used to the hot stuff. It's pretty nice and it's good practice out here with the wind.

-Thomas Morstead

I'm startin' to like this kid. What else did we learn about Morstead today?

I'm kind of crazy. I've told coaches before and I'll tell them again that I'm up for anything. I'm up for whatever they want to do.

-Thomas Morstead

Woah, Tommy! You barely even know them. I think you should take it slow and get to know each other first. Maybe a romantic dinner and a walk along the beach. Actually, Morstead reminds me of another kicker the Saints drafted suspiciously early. Listen to the way they each describe themselves.

"I'm the kind of guy that I'm just never satisfied with where I'm at. I'm always trying to improve, always trying to do better. I'm kind of my own biggest critic. I expect a lot out of myself, and my goal is to go out there and put the ball deep in the end zone and get touchbacks for our team with good hang time."

-Taylor Mehlhaff

"I could care less really about that. I'm harder on myself than anybody else could be. Coaches have to tell me not to worry about it and hit the next one, which I do, but I'm very hard on myself."

-Thomas Morstead

We know what happened to Mehlhaff. Not good, Tommie. Not good.

Zoo York Reprezent

I never knew that undrafted free agent running back P.J. Hill is from Elmhurst, Queens; about twenty minutes from where I grew up. Now I'm pulling for him.

Quote of the Day

"Knock 'em the ( -- -- ) out!"

-Gregg Williams

Random Fact of the Day

Q: What's the story on Stanley Arnoux?

A: Stan's actually a great cook. He can cook Haitian food.

Q: Have you eaten Haitian food before?

A: It's pretty good.

Q: Did he get you hooked on that?

A: He did.

-Transcript of Chip Vaughn Press Conference

Poll

Are you worried about injury this season?

Nah.

115 votes

I wasn't until yesterday!

98 votes

I have been all along.

75 votes

Someone's already injured!? Mother $^%&!!!

205 votes

493 votes | Poll has closed

Spring Recap: Defensive Backs

irish1611 — Mon, 04 May 2009 22:40:03 -0000

Anthony Perkins during football practice at the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colorado April 13, 2009. CAMERA/Mark Leffingwell

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Pre-Spring Thoughts:

Coming into the 2008 season, the cornerback position was highlighted as a weak spot on the Buffs defense while the defensive line was supposed to be the strength. I think most CU fans would say they were more impressed with the cornerback play in '08 than they were with the defensive line. Given that the Buffs lost two starters from the 2007 team in Terrence Wheatley (NFL) and Ben Burney (5'11" 190 Sr.) (injury), that 2008 assumption was not a bad one to make. But the cornerbacks overachieved last season. CB Chapelle Brown (5'7" 170 Sr.) was arguably the story of the year in the secondary, becoming a consistent playmaker and tackler. CB Jalil Brown (6'1" 205 Jr.), CB Anthony Wright (6'0" 190 So.) and CB Jimmy Smith (6'3" 200 Jr.) all saw action in 2008 and for the most part, performed well. At safety, the 2008 team was led by seniors Daniel Dykes and Ryan Walters, who are now both gone and graduated. Not so lucky for Walters and Dykes but for the future of the Buffs program, both players had health issues during the year allowing true freshman, Patrick Mahnke (6'1" 205 So.), and red-shirt freshman, Anthony Perkins (5'10" 200 So.), to get invaluable time both as reserves and a starters.

In one of the more surprising moves of the offseason, secondary coach Greg Brown received some good news. Ray Polk, a four star running back in 2008 asked to be converted to a safety. Although Polk needed offseason surgery and still has to learn the position, Buff fans should expect to see good things from him when he gets healthy and acclimated. The remaining but useful players at safety include S Tyler Sandersfield (6'1" 205 So.), who made some nice plays last year on special teams as well as S Vince Ewing (6'0" 200 RFr.) and Bret Smith (5'11" 190 Jr.).

Although the loss of three starting defensive backs from 2008 (CB Gardner McKay, S Dykes and S Walters) could cause a bit of concern on most teams, coming into spring, I had the expectation that this year's unit would be better at all positions. The cornerback spot will definitely be improved with the emergence of Jimmy Smith and the return of Ben Burney. Smith showed well at the end of the last season. Known as the most athletic and "pro ready" player on the roster, the game clicked for Smith in 2008 as a sophomore and he was expected to gain a stranglehold on one of the starting cornerback position this spring. With 2007 starter Ben Burney, 2008 starter Cha'pelle Brown and 2008 nickel back Jalil Brown all returning, their was plenty of reasons to be optimistic for 2009.

click after the jump to read the rest of the cornerback recap...

Post Spring Thoughts:

Now that spring practice has come and gone, I am still brimming with optimism. The biggest area of concern, if applicable, was at the safety position. Although Mahnke and Perkins played last year, being a full time starter is a different story. That being said, they looked solid during my viewing (four practices and two scrimmages). The good thing for these two sophomores are the players surrounding them. The Buffs have great depth & talent at cornerback and a strong linebacker corp. They can be assignment oriented (no man beats you deep) but also feel loose enough to be able to press the line of scrimmage, something we saw Ron Collins and the Buffs defensive staff use a lot this spring. Many times, the defense would be in a 3 - 3 - 5, bringing in a nickel cornerback or safety.

The spring practices further proved that cornerback should be a strong point this season. Jimmy Smith has first round talent and Ben Burney returned to the lineup, bringing another physical corner to the defense. The first day of practice, the Buffs ran one on ones to see who would run sprints (very much a jog) at the end of practice. The offense tried to run a double move on Jimmy Smith. No luck, picked off and a defensive celebration ensued. I expect that from Smith all season. Smith is also special because he can support the run. His size also allows him to handle bigger receivers and his quickness allows him to cover the speedsters. He is the complete package that should be a treat to watch this year. I am already circling the Kansas and Oklahoma State games to see Smith go up against Dezmon Briscoe and Dez Bryant.

Cha'pelle Brown got a stomach virus that didn't allow him to participate as much as he would have liked this spring but he will surely be in a battle with Jalil Brown, Burney and Anthony Wright for the other starting job as well as the nickel spot. The Buffs also moved 2008 grey shirt, Paul Vigo, to cornerback, adding another player into the fold along with Arthur Jaffee and Jonathan Hawkins.

Injuries:

OUT FOR SPRING - S Ray Polk (shoulder surgery)
WAS LIMITED - CB Cha'pelle Brown (stomach illness), CB Ben Burney (multiple injuries), CB Paul Vigo (leg injury), Anthony Wright (knee injury)

All should be ready to go in the fall with the addition of incoming commits: Deji Olatoye and Parker Orms.

Player(s) Who Emerged:

The four players who stood out this spring were Ben Burney, Jimmy Smith, Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins. Basically, the guys who we needed to step up did to solidify the positions. Another person to watch out for is Tyler Sandersfield. He just seems to make plays, something the coaches have noticed. He is currently #2 on the depth chart at safety but also played in that nickel/rover spot where he adds another physical presence.

Final Assessment:

If the Buffs can generate any sort of pass rush, this group has the ability to cause a lot of turnovers and be a special unit in the Big 12. Forcing turnovers is always an emphasis in spring camp, especially so after the 2008 season when the Buffs finished 94th in the nation in turnover margin. Oklahoma finished first and you can see what bowl game they played in last year. It will all depend on the pass rush, though. If spring practice holds true throughout the season, Ron Collins won't be afraid to play three down linemen and be aggressive with the linebackers, safeties or cornerbacks. The good thing is all of the back seven or eight (plus depth) are returning players which will come in handy if the Buffs are trying to teach a very diverse defense with multiple blitz/cover/responsibility packages.

The secondary should also be aided by a few big wide receiver/quarterback combos coming off the schedule in 2009:

TEAMS WHO LOST PLAYMAKERS FROM LAST YEAR

CSU - will have another starting quarterback but return a pretty good receiver in Rashaun Greer who was ranked 19th in the nation with 1,114 yards receiving last season.
West Virginia - loses QB Pat White who was not a big passing threat but the run-pass option still made defenses nervous.
Kansas State - gone is QB Josh Freeman, the 19th pick in the NFL draft.
Missouri - the Mizzou trio who just killed the Buffs the past two seasons - QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin and TE Chase Coffman - all gone. Good riddance. The loss of Maclin alone accounts for 2,800+ total yards in '08 to be replaced in '09.
Nebraska - gone is QB Joe Ganz, WR Nate Swift and WR Todd Peterson. Swift and Peterson combined for 125 receptions, 1,727 yards and 14 touchdowns. TE Mike McNeill is the leading pass catcher returning...who?

TEAMS WHO RETURN MOST OF THEIR PLAYMAKERS

Texas - loses leading receiver Quan Cosby (1,123 yards) but returns WR Jordan Shipley and QB Colt McCoy. Plus its Texas, they reload.
Kansas - QB Todd Reesing (has never lost to the Buffs) and WR Dezmon Briscoe return. This combo should be dangerous again in '09.
Oklahoma State - along with Kansas and Texas, Oklahoma State returns a lot of explosiveness. TE Brandon Pettigrew is gone but the real playmakers in QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant are all back.

TEAMS WHO RETURN PLAYERS BUT NOT READY TO CALL THEM PLAYMAKERS

Texas A&M - has their core of young skill players returning.
Iowa State - QB Austen Arnaud returns but who is he going to throw to?

Assessing Our Team For the Opponent

irish1611 — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 16:38:37 -0000

The guys over at Corn Nation, the Nebraska blog on SBNation, asked us to put together a small synopsis of the Buffs going into spring ball so that they could educate their fan base on what to hear out of camp this year. I thought it would be good to share so you can see what I am looking at going into camp.

Corn Nation: Who's Gone: (What Star Players Are Gone in 2009)

Biggest loss on Offense: Center Daniel Sanders. Right now the Buffs have three or four guys who can probably step in but not like Sanders did. He was a big performer for the Buffs and right now, no one has any experience at the position worth mentioning. Look for Mike Iltis, Blake Behrens or Evan Eastburn to battle for the starting spot this offseason with the favorite being Iltis who is recovering from an ACL injury. Other than that, the Buffs lose no one of any significant value on offense from last year's team. Same goes for next year as Colorado will only lose a starting tight end, a fullback and an offensive guard. This offense will have a lot of time to grow together.

Biggest loss on Defense: CU lost a few significant senior starters from 2008 although many underachieved. On the underachiever side you can put DT George Hypolite, DT Brandon Nicolas, DE Maurice Lucas and S Daniel Dykes. LB Brad Jones and S Ryan Walters will be the hardest players to replace. Jones led the team in sacks last year and was the only player that could get any sort of consistent pressure. The good thing for the Buffs is that linebacker is one position we have recruited well at and have many candidates to replace him. B.J. Beatty will provide the Buffs with Jones-like pass rush skills. Beatty is one of those guys who flies around and makes plays. Also look for redshirt freshman LB Jon Major and LB Doug Rippy to see time and with the Buffs returning All Big 12 players in LB Shaun Mohler and LB Jeff Smart, linebacker should not be a concern. The only concern on defense in my mind, and it is a big one, is defensive line. Even though Hypolite, Nicolas and Lucas underachieved last year, they were the only guys we had and the only guys we saw play with any significant time. This year, we are flying blind and all positions are up for grabs. Hawkins got two big recruits in 5* DE Nick Kasa and 4* DL Edward Nuckols in 2009 but whether they will be ready to go physically is never a guarantee. Cornerback should be solid with plenty of depth and although the Buffs lose both safeties, Walters and Dykes had plenty of injuries last year giving replacements S Anthony Perkins and S Patrick Mahnke time to get a feel for the spots as freshman. Walters was a leader of the defense as well as a pretty hard nosed ball player so that will need to be filled in 2009.

Corn Nation: Who To Watch: (The best guys on your team, and maybe your quarterback if you have a new one)

see more after the jump...

Right now as Buff fans we get really optimistic before the season starts about a lot of players, we always do that! Here are a few:

Offense:

RB Darrell Scott - has dropped all the excess weight he had carried last year as a freshman, down to his high school weight of 205 pounds (was at 225), is said to be healty again, running a 4.4 forty, got mentioned in a recent interview with our strength and conditioning coach saying he was the hardest working player this offseason and really made a point to show everyone that he is ready to break out in 2009. I have no doubt that 2008 will be a distant memory after this season.

RB Rodney Stewart - hard not to have him on this list even though I think Darrell Scott will replace him as the starting back. Although he broke his leg late in the season, he worked hard this offseason and tested out as the strongest player pound for pound on the team. No questioning what he did last season was pretty amazing for a freshman (can't you tell that we had a lot of freshman playing last season...it makes me sick typing this). This running back combo could be special for years to come.

WR Markques Simas - was ineligible last season but is said to have a strong GPA this year. He was a four star commit in 2007 and should be the top play maker on the edge in 2009. It has been reported that no one is even close to his talent level at wide receiver and he just torched the defensive starters last year playing on the scout team.

OT's Ryan Miller and Nate Solder - they will anchor this line, a line that if healthy, has the talent to be a top 3 or 4 squad in the conference. Both of these guys have the build (6'9" 300+) and the athleticism (Solder ran a sub 5.0 forty this offseason) to be pro prospects.

QB Tyler Hansen - because we need a change. The offseason should do wonders for him learning the playbook and gaining confidence controlling the offense. People forget that last year he was strictly the scout team quarterback until about two weeks before the Kansas State game. Basically, he had to learn the Colorado playbook in a few short days. He is taller, has better feet and a better arm than Cody Hawkins. The only thing that we need to see is his ability to grasp the offense and the leadership that goes along with being the starting Q.

WR Josh Smith - was third in the Big 12 last year in all purpose yards and ninth in the nation. Need a more consistent performance from him but if he dedicates himself, he has already shown that he can be explosive and a game changer.

Defense:

LB Shaun Mohler: impressive last year in his first season as a JUCO transfer. Became a starter after the second game and never gave it up. I expect second team All Big 12 or better this year for Mohler. Was honorable mention last year. He plays down hill and is my pick for CU's defensive player of the year.

LB Jeff Smart: Second team All Big 12 linebacker last year. He isn't the most gifted linebacker the Buffs have but he is the most productive. He might get pushed by some of the younger, bigger guys this year but I expect another strong season from him.

CB Jimmy Smith: he will be the first cornerback selected out of the Big 12 in 2010's NFL draft. He has great size (6'3" 200 pounds) and is by far and away the most athletic player on CU's roster. Husker fans should remember Smith after last year's game.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: an All Big 12 player last year. What he lacks in size, he offsets with consistent play. With the return of 2007 starter Ben Burney from injury as well as the emergence of backups Jalil Brown and Anthony Wright, Cha'pelle will have his hands full but I expect him to be the day one starter based on last season.

Corn Nation: Under the Radar players who might make an impact this season:

OL Bryce Givens - a former Nebraska commit, Givens has added 25 pounds this offseason to go along with his great athleticism. He should push for a starting spot if he can stay healthy.

LB's Doug Rippy and Jon Major - part of the big 2008 LB recruiting trio, look for Rippy (who is physically ready to play at the college level) and Jon Major to push for time. Unfortunately, the cream of the crop in 2008, LB Lynn Katoa, is struggling both on and off the field and it wouldn't be a surprise if he never suited up for the Buffs.

DL Conrad Obi - honestly, we have no idea who is going to make up three or even all of our starting defensive line spots. I can't even make an educated guess but Obi is said to have all the physical talent but now it is time for the sophomore to turn it into production. CU is very young on the D-line.

DL Curtis Cunningham - he saw the most action of any player as a backup last year which was pretty amazing considering he was a 260 pound true freshman. If I had to put my money on one player starting next year on the defensive line, it would be him. He showed in limited action that he can make plays.

Let the Spring Practice Preview Start!

irish1611 — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 16:10:37 -0000

March is now upon us and it is time to get back in that mode of football. It feels good just to say that. Although preparation for one of the most important seasons in the past decade began right after the 2008 season ended, March 31st will be the first time we personally get to see things like RB Darrell Scott at 200 pounds, a new offensive scheme (sort of), Denver Johnson coaching the offensive line and hopefully, we see a young & injured team last year begin to mature and show signs of a 8+ win team.

Inaugural Preview

Over the next couple of weeks, we will breakdown the top 10 - 20 questions going into spring ball as well as a position by position breakdown as we see it this springtime. Of course, no one has ever won a starting spot in spring practice. With only a few days of pads and actual hitting, we won't get a great look at important position battles like defensive line. But there are a few things I am definitely looking for that aren't necessarily measured by yards gained or completion percentages. I will be keeping an eye on a couple of intangibles that are always important, especially in the transformation of an inexperienced and often hurt 2008 squad to a successful 2009 contender. Intangibles are key in the game of football, just ask the Denver Broncos right now. A new coach and GM who has already rocked the boat to a point possibly beyond repair, a wide receiver who can't stay out of a trouble (most recent charges have been dropped), a very insecure & immature quarterback that forgets he gets paid to play this game, etc. there is no doubt in my mind that this won't show in their play next year. Here are some intangibles I will be watching for when I attend spring practice:

1) Team Morale and Energy Level - basically, how is this team going to respond after a disappointing 2008 season. Is this team going to be flying around out there, running to their drills, being vocal, cheering each other on or is their still some indecisiveness out there about the quarterbacks, the coaches, the defensive line that will come through in the players' play? Basically does this team believe they can win a ton of games next year and does that show in their play? Half of the battle with a still young team is getting them to believe and buy into what the goal is.

2) Team Leadership - Over 60% of the defense is still considered an underclassmen and over 65% of the offense are made up of sophomores or freshmen. The Buffs lost two vocal leaders in S Ryan Walters and DL George Hypolite to graduation on the defensive side of the ball. They also lost a leader by example in C Daniel Sanders. QB Cody Hawkins is definitely a leader but he is only one guy and is in a battle right now for the starting job. I would prefer for a leader to be on the field all the time and that we have at least 2 guys on each side of the ball who everyone can look to in tough situations. Is OT Ryan Miller ready to accept that post? How about a guy like RB Darrell Scott...a kid who has shown nothing but maturity and class in what was a tough first year, can he be the tough guy when he needs to? Let's face it, the Buffs and Dan Hawkins needs a few of these sophomores to take the reins and lead. They are the foundation of this team. Other candidates would probably include TE Riar Geer, LB Shaun Mohler, CB Cha'pelle Brown, LB Jeff Smart and QB Tyler Hansen. They don't need to be the most vocal people but can be like Daniel Sanders who consistently works hard and does their job. Leadership is huge and it's one thing that the players need to take on themselves, not the coaches.

3) A Sense of Urgency - Dan Hawkins made note of the sense of urgency this team needs to have this year when he didn't predict, but said he expects 10 wins this year. That is a sense of urgency. Two things you hear a lot when you are on a sideline playing in a game is "sudden change" and "a sense of urgency" both of which center around a player's ability to respond in the toughest of situations. It embodies a teams character and will to get the job done. When the Buffs take the field on March 31st, do they practice with a sense of urgency and a will to perform? I look for the coaches to instill this from day one.

4) Are We Having Fun Yet? - Again, some of you might be like "what is this guy talking about?" Trust me, I know about football player psychology and it is extremely important. One of my big pet peeves from last year was a lack of excitement. It just didn't seem like the Buffs were all that amped to get out there and roll. Seemed more like a job and less like a game. Call it a lack of fire or whatever. Hopefully it was a result of being young and just trying to keep up their head above water but this team seemed really tense last year. in 2009, watch to see if there is excitement when a guy makes a big stick or a ton of emotion when the game starts. Having fun means the ability to relax and have confidence in yourself to get the job done. A tense team doubts themselves, finds flaws in their game, etc.

Simply said, this team needs confidence. Whether it has been built in the offseason or will be built up in spring and fall practice, come that first Saturday against Colorado State, it is a must.

Fun Facts for the Spring Game

In preparation to make sure you know all the information to get you ready for spring ball, we will try to post some facts leading up to March 31st.

Our first one is a no brainer... the 2009 Spring Practice Schedule from Dave Plati and the SID:

Spring practice will begin Tuesday, March 31, and end with the spring game on Saturday, April 25. The tentative dates are as follows: March 31; April 2-3-
6-9-11-13-14-16-17-20-21-23-25; a high school coaches clinic is set for April 2-3. The team is allowed 15 practices over 29 days; this is the first time in
four years CU is not starting prior to spring break (March 23-27) and will complete spring ball from start to finish when the players return. How the practice sessions will break down, per NCAA rules: three in shorts (no contact), four in pads (no tackling), four in pads (tackling allowed 50 percent or less of the time), four in pads (tackling allowed throughout).

Questions and Topics You Want to See Covered

In an attempt to make sure you use the Ralphie Report as your home for all questions leading into spring ball, we welcome you to post in the comment section or email us at theralphiereport@gmail.com any topics you would like discussed in the next 30 or so days leading up to spring practice.

Anyone else pumped?

Poll

Who will be attending spring ball this offseason?

I will be getting up for some practices and the spring game. Can't wait to get my full fix!

35 votes

Just the spring game.

39 votes

Just some practices. CU is crazy for scheduling the spring game on the day of the NFL draft.

3 votes

I hate all of you people who live in Colorado! I will be stuck to my computer looking for updates as I am out of the state.

39 votes

No interest, only interested when the games count.

3 votes

119 votes | Poll has closed

Best of 2008 #8: Buff Linebacker Shaun Mohler

irish1611 — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 18:31:12 -0000

25 hours of course work in six months in order to become academically eligible to play at CU.

That is what linebacker Shaun Mohler did at Orange Coast College this spring and summer to just have a chance to come to the University of Colorado. He passed all seven of those classes and still had to wait for the NCAA Clearinghouse to tell him he was eligible.

What LB Shaun Mohler did was truly amazing. One thing that hampers the Buffs especially in recruiting junior college players, is the admission standards that comes with playing in Boulder. No, its not Stanford or Notre Dame but it is close. That is why he was the only junior college transfer to become a Buff last year. Let's just say what happened at Kansas State last year with 19 JUCO's signing would never happen at the University of Colorado. That total might not happen over the next 10 years!

Mohler, a one time Nebraska commit, would have coasted easily into Nebraska but after Bill Callahan got fired, he wanted out of Lincoln and visited Colorado. The rest is history.

Shaun Mohler has always been a favorite of The Ralphie Report. Fans want players to immerse themselves into their respective universities as much they do. We want to believe that every player bleeds the colors of the university. Shaun Mohler made us feel that way. When he was taking 25 hours of course work, he still found the time and motivation to work out to be in top shape when he arrived in Boulder. Some other big time recruits had to take one class and couldn't find the time. So it is easy to make Shaun Mohler a favorite.

He wasn't just a feel good story either. The Buffs knew they were getting a player out of Orange Coast College. Rivals.com ranked Shaun as the best Junior College outside linebacker prospect in last year's recruiting class. Mohler was named Orange Coast's most valuable player both of his seasons, he was first-team All-American, All-State and All-Mission Conference, earning the league Player of the Year last year. His highlight film showed why he received all of the accolades.

Mohler saw playing time from day one with the Buffs. A reserve at first, the coaches couldn't keep him off the field. Once he was on the field, he become one of the Buffs most consistent defenders.

Opponent	Solo	Assisted	Total	Ints	TFL	Sack
Colorado St.	3	-	3	1	1	-
Eastern Wash.	5	4	9	-	-	-
West Virginia	6	1	7	-	-	-
+ Florida St.	5	2	7	-	1	-
3 Texas	7	4	11	-	1	-
@ Kansas	7	3	10	-	1	-
Kansas St.	6	3	9	-	-	-
@ 19 Missouri	5	4	9	-	2	-
@ Texas A&M	3	5	8	-	2	1
Iowa St.	1	-	1	-	-	-
14 Oklahoma St.	7	5	12	1	-	-
@ Nebraska	5	6	11	-	-	-
Totals	60	37	97	2	8	1

Against Colorado State, Mohler did not start and in the Iowa State game, he was hurt. Other than those two games, he was a very consistent defender. The best part is Mohler got better as the year went on. To his own admission, he had a tough time adjusting to the speed of the game. Looking at these stats, I think he adjusted pretty well.

Looking at the overall defensive team stats for the Buffs this year, Mohler excelled.

	Tackles			Tackles For Loss				Sacks				Int Ret.
Name	Solo	Ast	Ttl	Solo	Ast	Ttl	Yds	Solo	Ast	Ttl	Yds	No	Yds	TD
Name	Solo	Ast	Ttl	Solo	Ast	Ttl	Yds	Solo	Ast	Ttl	Yds	No	Yds	TD
Smart	57	52	109	3	0	3	7	1	0	1	4
Mohler	60	37	97	7	1	7.5	45	0	1	1	7	2	36	0
Walters	50	31	81	2	1	2.5	18	1	1	2	14	2	37	0
Brown	56	17	73	4	1	4.5	11			0		2	27	1
Jones	46	22	68	11	1	12	46	6	0	6	36
Dykes	32	15	47	3	0	3	16	1	0	1	10	1	0	0
Lucas	27	20	47	4	2	5	14	1	1	2	10
Hypolite	23	20	43	6	1	6.5	26	3	1	4	19
McKay	29	13	42	4	0	4	10			0
Brown	32	9	41	3	1	3.5	4			0		1	57	0
Nicolas	18	17	35	6	1	6.5	20	2	1	3	13
Perkins	22	13	35			0				0
Smith	26	9	35			0				0

If Shaun starts against CSU and doesn't get hurt against Iowa State, he is probably the team's leading tackler this year. Finishing second on the team in both tackles (97) and tackles for loss (7.5) right out of junior college is an amazing feat. Mohler was rewarded for his play today as he was named by the AP, Honorable Mention All Big 12. He also might be the overall best story of the year in the Big 12.

Great find by Hawkins, Cabral and the staff on this one. An offseason of aggressive training and lifting will also do wonders for Mohler. Next year, he will once again be a stud and with Jeff Smart, B.J. Beatty, Jon Major, Doug Rippy and Lynn Katoa back, linebacker is one position the Buffs don't have to worry about.

Shaun Mohler is a player that makes you feel good to root for the Buffs!

see the best of and worst of list so far after the jump...

Best of 2008 List
10) The Victory Against CSU at Mile High
9) The Iowa State Second Half
8) Buff Linebacker Shaun Mohler

Worst of 2008 List
10) The Off the Field Issues
9) The Defensive Line Scheme/Play

Poll

Going into the 2009 season, what position are you least worried about?

Linebackers: Smart, Mohler, Major, Rippy, Beatty, Katoa, Sipili, Burton and Hartigen

34 votes

Defensive Backfield: Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown, Burney, Smith, Wright, Mahnke, Perkins and Sandersfeld

4 votes

Runningback: Scott, Polk, Stewart, Sumler, Lockridge, Moyd and Nabors

18 votes

Offensive Line: Miller, Tuioti-Mariner, Behrens, Head, Solder, Givens, Harris, Bahr, Tau and Iltis

4 votes

60 votes | Poll has closed

Bizzare: The Colorado Buffaloes Win Crazy Game Against the Iowa State Cyclones

irish1611 — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 02:13:11 -0000

As you can imagine, being in the stands today at Folsom Field was quite a roller coaster. In the first half, I couldn't fathom what I was seeing; the Buffs had hit rock bottom, with 8 minutes left and Iowa State up two scores, I felt the Buffs were done, with less than 10 seconds, I thought the comeback and offensive explosion was all for not. At halftime I wanted to walk over to the student section and tell the recruits who were watching "sorry for wasting their time." But I should have known better. This was reminiscent of Eastern Washington. The Buffs were supposed to win and got down early. A few quick strikes in the fourth quarter, a late defensive stand and the Buffs come out victorious. Unbelievable. I saw some things today I thought I would never see. Most of it on special teams but an Iowa State option on the one yard line. That put a smile on my face. Either way you look at it, this Buffs team is not for the faint of hearts. I am going to stay as positive as possible in this post because all wins, especially for this Buffs team, should be celebrated and Penn State lost today. Hey, at least CU isn't Tennessee! Yeah, that SEC is really tough with those bruiser programs like Tennessee, Auburn and Georgia. Don't burn me SEC fan!

I will lead off with the negative and something I will definitely touch on again later in the week. I hate calling out coaches and players but the special teams play is not acceptable and immediate action needs to occur. Yes, a coach can't control missed field goals directly or roughing the punter but you when poor play becomes a habit, it is on the coach. How many points have the Buffs left on the field this year in missed opportunities in the special teams game? It has to be in the 50's probably the 60's or 70's. Look at the laundry list today that should have cost the Buffs the game today:

-2 missed chip shot field goals in the first half
-1 blocked extra point that was a looming problem when looking at the scoreboard for most of the game
-2 consecutive roughing the punter penalties
-1 kickoff out of bounds in the fourth quarter
-2 kickoff returns to the 35 yard line +, especially the one on Iowa State's last drive that gave them a short field.

That is some sort of laundry list that has become a habit of this Buffs team. I don't know what the problem is but I have reached my breaking point as I am sure most CU fans have. High school kids do a better job than this. Special team's is about preparation and execution. Youth, injuries...all of the Hawkins excuses doesn't mean anything on special teams. It's knowing your assignment and executing. Special teams is a "want to" part of the game and the Buffs are embarrassingly bad here. Blow up the unit, recruit a kicker, freaking get Ron Prince here, let him coach the offense and special teams. That guy makes special teams a priority at least. I'm done with it. How do you let bad teams hang around? Mess up special teams. The Buffs aren't good enough not to be discipline on special teams. I'll try to be more positive from here on out.

Offensive and defensive reviews after the jump....

So, you see what a true hurry up offense can do now? If you turned the game off at halftime, you didn't see it but in the fourth quarter, the Buffs were running a true hurry up offense and it gassed the Iowa State defensive linemen, allowing Hawkins to get comfortable in the pocket. It was a thing of beauty. It was how you imagined it; altitude, opposing team sucking wind and the Buffs moving the ball at will in the fourth quarter. And given the opportunity with time in the back field to throw, Hawkins looked like the quarterback we thought we had coming into the year and the quarterback that we saw flashes of last year. I have been whining for a quick pass game all year and the Buffs finally did it today with Patrick Williams, Scotty McKnight and Cody Crawford excelling at the wide receiver position. Cody delivered the ball with timing. Iowa State was continually off the wideouts 8 - 10 yards and it was pick and choose passing at its finest. The Buffs scoring drives were 9 plays 63 yards, 9 plays 84 yards, 8 plays 80 yards and 11 plays 81 yards. Those are sustained and efficient drives, all of which were in the second half. Freshman QB Tyler Hansen in the first half struggled as Iowa State was shifting their linebackers a lot, mixing up the offensive line and keeping Hansen moving around. Hansen began giving up on passing plays early and showing happy feet in the pocket. He had a few good runs but overall, he never got the timing offense going like Hawkins did. The ball was out of Hawkins hands quick and into the wide receivers hands to make plays. Darrell Scott got his start and carries to get in a rhythm. He still needs work but I love to watch him run out there. The Buffs, with those long and sustained drives, wore down an already slow and mediocre defense. Iowa State was extremely slow which was the reason they were giving the Buffs' "less than speedy receivers" a 10 yard cushion.

As for the defense, CB Jimmy Smith showed why we get so excited about his potential. The guy was inspired today and he dominated in pass coverage. Smith had 9 tackles and three breakups. He probably should have had 1 or 2 picks but that is why he plays corner. All the corner backs played pretty well regardless of the 200+ yard passing game by Iowa State. I wasn't very impressed with the CU linebackers today. The unit gave up easy yards and allowed Iowa State to out physical them at the point of contact. I was a little disappointed today in Ryan Walters. He had 16 tackles so the stat sheet will look good but he missed a ton of tackles in the hole on the first drive of the game that allowed Iowa State to get points and the last drive he whiffed on the option play that went for 27. I hold him to a high standard and the Buffs need him to make those plays that doesn't allow the offense to get big chunks of yards. The defense had its moments of fine play and then they had their moments when they couldn't get a stop when they needed it. Of course the special teams had a part in that, giving the Iowa State offense a short field. But the defense got their big stop on the goal line in what was one of the most baffling play calls I have ever seen. Iowa State ran an option on the one yard line that got stopped. Thank the man upstairs for coaches like Bill Stewart and Gene Chizik who have poor clock management and play calling. Iowa State wasted a time out with 40 seconds left after the 27 yard option run that got them down to the 14 yard line and stopped the clock on a first down. Then Iowa State kept running the ball with one time out left. Then with 4 seconds left, instead of running the ball straight at CU which they did at will or taking your 6'3" 220 lb quarterback on a sneak, the Cyclones ran a wide option with a lone wide receiver trying to seal the corner. Thanks for the win coach Chizik!

At times it was ugly. At times it looked like a well oiled machine. It's just a crazy year and a crazy team. It went from the worst half of college football I have seen this year to visions of the offense I thought we would see every week. It was a good win with all the recruits in the stadium because Folsom Field was excited and the Buff players were emotional. Yes, it was a very bad Iowa State team but coming back to win was definitely something the recruits had to enjoy watching. And for the current players, it gives them two chances to get bowl eligible and it may spark them for an upset in the next two weeks. Who knows, I wouldn't hold my breath but college football is a crazy game.

SB Nation - Ryan Walters

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Colorado Buffaloes Team Capsule

What is your regular season win prediction for the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009?

10 wins +: Gotta go with Coach Hawkins, he set the bar, anything less would be a disappointment

8 - 9 wins: very solid year, outside chance at the Big 12 North, top tier bowl game

7 wins: an improvement, still too many holes to challenge for a North title but still bowling

6 wins: squeak into a bowl game but with an empty feeling, still have a ways to go to be competitive each week

5 or less wins: not enough playmakers, too many holes, more of the same in Boulder. 2010 here we come

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Defenses

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

DEFENSE SUMMARY

Special Teams

Coaching

OVERALL

Rookie Mini-Camp Review: Are You Freaking Kidding Me Edition

Disrespecting the Deuce

It's gettin' hot in here, so take off all your...

Zoo York Reprezent

Quote of the Day

Random Fact of the Day

Are you worried about injury this season?

Nah.

I wasn't until yesterday!

I have been all along.

Someone's already injured!? Mother $*^%&*!!!

Spring Recap: Defensive Backs

Assessing Our Team For the Opponent

Let the Spring Practice Preview Start!

Who will be attending spring ball this offseason?

I will be getting up for some practices and the spring game. Can't wait to get my full fix!

Just the spring game.

Just some practices. CU is crazy for scheduling the spring game on the day of the NFL draft.

I hate all of you people who live in Colorado! I will be stuck to my computer looking for updates as I am out of the state.

No interest, only interested when the games count.

Best of 2008 #8: Buff Linebacker Shaun Mohler

Going into the 2009 season, what position are you least worried about?

Linebackers: Smart, Mohler, Major, Rippy, Beatty, Katoa, Sipili, Burton and Hartigen

Defensive Backfield: Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown, Burney, Smith, Wright, Mahnke, Perkins and Sandersfeld

Runningback: Scott, Polk, Stewart, Sumler, Lockridge, Moyd and Nabors

Offensive Line: Miller, Tuioti-Mariner, Behrens, Head, Solder, Givens, Harris, Bahr, Tau and Iltis

Bizzare: The Colorado Buffaloes Win Crazy Game Against the Iowa State Cyclones

Someone's already injured!? Mother $^%&!!!