SB Nation - Brian Lockridge

Under The Hood: Nebraska vs. Colorado Statistical Comparison

Jon Johnston — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:28:37 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Tyler Hansen's favorite pose this season. Hansen has taken 31 sacks, over twice as many as the Huskers total. Part of that can be explained on Colorado throwing the ball all the time. Part of it..... CU Sucks.

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Statistics are good to know before you head into a game against a team that hates your guts. If they start giving you too much crap, you can just throw statistical information back at them. Unless they've been following along, they have little choice to respond with the phrase common to losers everywhere:

"YOU SUCK!"

Some stats can be dismissed, or made to say whatever you want, but when you're ranked at the bottom of several categories across several facets of football, things aren't going well no matter how much you rationalize.

That's where Colorado is this season. Before I looked, I thought that it would be Colorado's defense near the bottom of the NCAA rankings, but it's not. It's their offense.

Offensive Statistics

	Nebraska	Colorado
Rush YPG	147.73 (62/6)	83.73 (113/11)
Rush YPC	4.18 (65/5)	2.62 (117/12)
Rush TDS	17 (54/7)	14 (81/11)

Pass YPG	197.7 (85/9)	222.5 (53/8)
Pass YPA	7.1 (63/7)	5.7 (109/12)
Pass TDS	14 (75/10)	15 (67/9)
Pass Efficiency	128.82 (62/8)	105.86 (111/12)

Total Offense	345.5 (82/10)	306.3 (108/12)
Scoring Offense	25.4 (73/8)	22.5 (91/10

If you thought our offense was bad, welcome to the Buffs. Rodney Stewart is the Buffs top running back, ranked 67th nationally in averaging 69.4 yards per game. Stewart is averaging 3.92 yards per carry. The very low team per carry average is because of all the sacks and negative plays that Colorado has had this season - Cody Hawkins has lost an average of 12 yards per game (-84 yards rushing). That's icky.

I'm not going to say much about Cody Hawkins or Tyler Hansen because you can read some incredibly in-depth stuff here. Buff receivers Scotty McKnight and Markques Simas are dangerous, but not overwhelming. McKnight averages just over 70 yards per game, and has four TD receptions. Simas has come on strong lately, with 135 and 128 yards receiving against Texas A&M and Iowa State, respectively. He dropped to 92 against Oklahoma State, but I don't think anyone is going to confuse the Blackshirt defense with any one of those teams.

The Huskers don't have a good offense any way you look at it. We're only around average in rushing, and below average everywhere else. i don't know about you, but I'm going to spend the next two games playing the "Shawn Watson has kept the real offense under wraps until the end of the season!' angle. I find it irritates opposing fans when I refuse to listen to reason, which is the only way to make a cruddy offense enjoyable.

Hate to point this out, but the Buffs have more passing touchdowns than we do despite much worse statistics in this area. That speaks volumes about our inability to get in the end zone earlier this season.

Roy Helu is ranked 29th nationally, just under 100 yards per game at 96.09. Not bad considering he's been injured.

Defensive Statistics

	Nebraska	Colorado
Rush YPG	98.09 (13/4)	162.73 (83/10)
Rush YPC	2.85 (8/3)	4.18 (75/9)
Rush TDS	6 (8/2)	15 (58/8)

Pass YPG	182.3 (17/1)	213.5 (57/4)
Pass YPA	5.3 (3/1)	7.3 (75/10)
Pass TDS	4 (1/1)	18 (81/10)

Total Defense	280.4 (8/2)	376.3 (72/9)
Scoring Defense	10.3 (3/1)	28.9 (88/11)

Look at the Huskers defensive stats. If that ain't beauty.... I don't know what you're looking for. Four passing touchdowns given up so far this season.

The Buffaloes on the other hand.... oy vey. Their defensive stats are not beautiful. They're not hideous, though, as they have not dropped to the Nebraska 2007 level (112th total defense - 476.8 yards per game, 114th scoring defense -37.9 points per game) or to Kansas State 2008 (118th total defense - 479.1 yards per game, 111th scoring defense- 35.8 points per game) so those comparisons are inappropriate.

The Huskers have given up 16 pass plays of 25+ yards, compared to the Buffs at 25 of 25+ yards. When watching Colorado football this year, they have a real problem with letting receivers get behind their deepest defenders.That explains poor passing touchdown defense.

The Details

	Nebraska	Colorado
3rd Down Conversions (Pctg)	40.13 (58/8)	35.06 (94/10)
Red Zone Conversions (Score %)	79.55 (72/9)	84.21 (43/6)

Turnover Margin	+2 (53/6)	-4 (82/10)
Sacks	32 (12/5)	24 (43/8)
Tackles for Loss	73 (33/5)	62 (63/9)
Sacks Allowed	15 (31/3)	42 (117/12)
Punting (Avg)	41.12 (51/5)	37.71 (103/11)
Punt Returns	10.15 (47/7)	2.96 (117/12)
Kickoffs (Avg)	68.20 (2/2)	64.86 (22/4)
Kickoff Returns	23.07 (39/5)	24.24 (20/3)
Penalties (Yds/G)	66 (102/7)	79.4 (117/10)

- Both of these teams are awful in picking up penalties. The Huskers haven't gotten any better in November, still ranked 102nd and averaging 64.3 yard per game. But the Buffs have gotten worse (yes, that's possible), dropping to dead last in FBS, 120th at 94.7 yards per game. Both teams have tendencies to pick up personal foul penalties at the worst possible moments. One wonders how sloppy Friday's game will be.

- 117th in sacks allowed? Wow! Insert your jokes about a Jared Crick - Ndamukong Suh feast in the comments section, while I stick with a "turkey shoot" meme. Tyler Hansen has taken 31 sacks so far this year. It'd be nice if he'd take about ten more this game.

- The Buffaloes do have a potential game-breaking weapon in kickoff returns. Brian Lockridge is 61st nationally with a 24.07 average. (By comparison, Niles Paul is 36th with an average of 25.69. 1.62 yards means a huge difference in ranking, but not an enormous difference on the field). Lockridge's sole touchdown came last week against Oklahoma State. The Huskers have done a great job of shutting down kickoffs this season (hence the #2 ranking), thanks largely to Adi Kunalic.

- Colorado's punting average is pretty hideous. There's an understatement for you.

- What did I miss?

Saturday Buff Bites - Next Weekend Should Be Interesting

irish1611 — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:21:35 -0000

Woelk: Close may not be enough to change CU equation - Boulder Daily Camera

Today, however, the equation remains virtually the same as it was 24 hours ago. A head coach in his fourth season with twice as many losses as victories to his credit and a 3-8 record heading into the last game of the year. A young team with talent and promise, but one that has been unable to produce anything remotely resembling consistency as the program lurches toward its fourth consecutive losing season. As a friend of mine remarked after Thursday night's game, the Buffs played valiantly. They played with heart — but they did not play (or coach) smart. But today, a decision to retain Hawkins for another season would be a gamble that the mistakes and stumbles that became the calling card of this year's team could somehow be eliminated. That's a gamble I'm not convinced CU's administrators are willing to make — even if making a change is a decision that will cost millions. What Thursday night displayed once again is what CU fans have seen for much of this season. These Buffs are not a team bereft of talent. Whoever roams CU's sidelines next year will not be working with a bare cupboard.

Kiszla: Throw Hawkins to the Bohn fire - The Denver Post

The love is gone. There is nothing left for Dan Hawkins to do except say goodbye, and nowhere for him to go except out the door. A good man has failed as football coach of the Buffaloes. The only logical choice Colorado athletic director Mike Bohn has now? Fire Hawkins.

What We Learned: Hawkins back on the hot seat - Dave Curtis - College Football - Sporting News
Great point about the last four possessions of the game:

The buzz about Dan Hawkins getting dismissed (and bought out) at Colorado grew hot not because the Buffs lost by three on the road to a ranked team Thursday night. The bad vibes are back because of how things went down. Colorado's final four offensive possessions ended with a missed 49-yard field goal, a turnover on downs (incomplete pass on fourth-and-2 at the Oklahoma State 28), a fumble near midfield and a punt with 2:45 remaining. The Buffs either led by four or trailed by three points on each occasion yet ended with another loss, sending Hawkins' record at CU to 16-32 (and 2-20 on the road).

Regents likely to support buyout if CU fires Hawkins - Boulder Daily Camera

Several members of the Colorado Board of Regents said Friday they would be willing to approve a buyout for football coach Dan Hawkins if chancellor Phil DiStefano and athletic director Mike Bohn decide firing the fourth-year coach is the right move. Republican Regent Tom Lucero said while he wouldn`t vote against a buyout that could cost nearly $3.5 million, he believes Hawkins deserves at least one more year to build the program he envisioned when he came to CU in December of 2005 to replace former coach Gary Barnett, who was fired. "I`m a huge fan of Dan Hawkins and I am of the opinion that the guy needs at least one more year. Plain and simple," Lucero said.

Bohn mum on Hawk - The Denver Post

"Evaluation is always ongoing," Bohn said Friday, when asked about Hawkins' job status. Speculation that Hawkins is on his way out is rampant. Rumors that he has agreed to a buyout are inaccurate, Bohn said. The athletic director emphasized he has not made a decision on whether Hawkins will be retained. It would cost Colorado approximately $3.1 million to buy out Hawkins' contract. Asked if his cash- strapped athletic department can pay for that, Bohn said it was premature to address specifics of a buyout because no decision on Hawkins' future has been made. In the past, Bohn has used the words "doable but challenging" when talking in general terms about securing the resources to cover such a settlement. Bohn is scheduled to leave this morning for a flight to Hawaii, where he will join the CU men's basketball team for the Maui Invitational. He is scheduled to return to Boulder on Thanksgiving, a day before the football season finale. Bohn reiterated that no decision will be announced while he is out of town. "I can guarantee you that," he said.

CU issues no official word on Hawkins’ future - The Longmont Times-Call

Athletic director Mike Bohn said once again, following Thursday’s 31-28 loss at Oklahoma State, that no decision has been made on the coaching situation and no timeline exists for one. Bohn said he’ll leave today for Maui to watch the Buffs men’s basketball team play Monday through Wednesday. Quarterback Tyler Hansen raised some eyebrows Thursday when he said, "We always get told that coach Hawkins is solid right now. His job is pretty certain, and he’s going to be here." But Bohn declined to say anything about Hansen’s comment, only reiterating that there’s no timeline for a decision.

Big plays cost CU defense again - Boulder Daily Camera
Didn't even notice:

Wide receiver Andre Simmons made his first start but did not make a catch

Kiesau`s decision could save CU cash - Boulder Daily Camera

Athletic director Mike Bohn would have been considering two buyouts if one of Dan Hawkins` assistant coaches had made a different decision two years ago. Offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau was offered one of six multi-year contracts available at the school as an enticement to remain in Boulder instead of taking a job with Oregon, sources confirmed to the Camera. Kiesau, who was wide receivers coach at the time, opted not to accept the multi-year deal because, like every other multi-year contract at the school, it contained a buyout clause requiring him to pay CU money if he wanted to leave before it expired. Kiesau said he didn`t want to comment on the subject when asked about it recently. Kiesau makes $217,776 annually, and likely would have been owed that sum times the number of years remaining on his contract if CU decided to part ways with the entire coaching staff at the end of the season.

Thumb doesn’t stop Colorado’s Hansen - The Longmont Times-Call
Considering the defense was missing two of their best players, they did a pretty good job against Oklahoma State:

CU linebackers Jeff Smart (pinched nerve in his neck) and B.J. Beatty (concussion) did not play. Beatty did not make the trip. Smart was on the sideline, but not in uniform. Stewart suffered a shoulder bruise and is probable for Nebraska. Center Keenan Stevens suffered a sprained ankle and is also probable. Hansen said he thinks he might have sprained ligaments in his right thumb, which is the same one he broke during the spring game last April. He hit it on a helmet Thursday night in the second quarter.

Who's hot and who's not across the Big 12 - Big 12 Blog - ESPN

Not: Dan Hawkins: The Colorado coach’s record is 2-19 in games played at opponent's stadiums since starting his tenure with the Buffaloes in 2006.

Colorado's Tyler Hansen: "It’s real disappointing we were that close." | NewsOK.com

→Colorado running back Brian Lockridge on his kickoff return for a touchdown "I had some great blockers, I just ran as fast as I can and made a play on the kicker. I owed one to the team and it was a pivotal time in the game, and that’s what we needed in a response to their score. I was grateful to give the team a score, but it didn’t end quite the way we wanted it to."

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

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Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

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Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

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Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

Wednesday Buff Bites - Players Hope Team Only Meeting Turns the Tide

irish1611 — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 04:28:22 -0000

CU’s Hawkins states his case - The Longmont Times-Call

According to tailback Brian Lockridge, the players-only meeting was an effort to keep everyone’s spirits up. "It’s our team," Lockridge said. "Not the coaches’ team. It’s on us to take it upon us to turn the season around." Asked how that can be done, Lockridge said having fun in practice and playing with enthusiasm. "We’re not executing and having fun," Lockridge said. Receiver Scotty McKnight said Tuesday’s practice was one of the season’s best. He said the floor at the meeting was open for anyone to discuss anything. "I think we needed it," McKnight said. Offensive linemen Ryan Miller said the meeting served to remind everyone on the team that "we need to do our own jobs." Quarterback Tyler Hansen said he missed the meeting due to a class conflict, but said he heard it reinforced belief in the notion the team is on the verge of success. "We’re there," Hansen said. "We have to believe and have the attitude that we’re an elite team."

Student Voice: CU Buffs fans deserve better than Dan Hawkins - Colorado Daily

After his most recent win, Kansas State head football coach Bill Snyder said of his team's performance: "It stinks." The goal week in and week out is for your team to get better, win or lose, preaches Snyder. Snyder was all over his team for their sloppy play, even after dominating the Buffs and holding them to zero second half points. Snyder is a good coach. Dan Hawkins... not so much. With Hawkins, all we get is excuses and no real answers to our questions. CU continues to make too many mistakes and underperform with the talent level on the field. All of the responsibility for this lies on the head coach and his staff. You could debate for hours or write a 5,000-word essay on all of the dozens of things wrong with the Buffs this year, but one thing has remained constant the last four years: Dan Hawkins is not a good coach.

Athlete of the Week: Nick Hirschman, Los Gatos - San Jose Mercury News
Buff 2010 QB commit Nick Hirschman is honored:

There has been a long line of quality quarterbacks that have come out of Los Gatos under coach Butch Cattolico, including Trent Edwards of the Buffalo Bills and Danny Sullivan, now starting at Arizona State. But none of those strong arms ever threw for 400 yards in a game, like Hirschman did in approximately two and a half quarters of play in a 47-0 win over cross-town rival Saratoga on Friday. Hirschman threw for 413 yards, completing 12 of 17 passes with five touchdowns. "I've been coaching here 34 years, and we've never had someone throw for that many yards; I believe it's a school record," Cattolico said. Hirschman had scoring strikes of 49, 52, 70, 69 and 13 yards. He hooked up with Andrew Berg seven times for a school-record 247 yards with four scores. Hirschman, who has committed to play at Colorado next season, has completed 87 of 119 passes (73 percent) for 1,719 yards with 22 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Wildcats play at Palo Alto on Friday night.

CU's Hawkins makes impassioned statement about program - The Denver Post

As of Tuesday morning, about 9,000 seats remained for Saturday's game. . . . Kickoff for CU's Nov. 7 home game against Texas A&M was set for 11:30 a.m. . . . Dan Hawkins said sophomore tailback Darrell Scott (arthroscopic knee surgery) probably will not play this weekend but a return for the Texas A&M game is targeted.

Ray Polk is having fun as the … | The Buffzone Blog

Ray Polk is having fun as the new starter at free safety for the Buffs

CU football players hold meeting - Boulder Daily Camera

Hawkins wants Hansen to run 2-minute drill - The Longmont Times-Call

Right tackle Bryce Givens is expected "back in the fold" for Saturday’s game against Missouri, Dan Hawkins said, but his return this week is not guaranteed. "Hopefully we’re getting him leveled out a bit," Hawkins said. Offensive line coach Denver Johnson said Givens has lost weight and will be worked back into the rotation slowly. Givens has missed three games, including CU’s past two, due to what’s being called "personal reasons." Johnson said Ryan Miller and Matt Bahr will start again at right tackle and right guard, respectively.

Wednesday What-if: Missouri has the power if coaches will use it | Campus Corner

So why not try it at Colorado, and make such a formation and philosphy the first option rather than throwing the football all over Folsom Field and leaving the largely immobile Gabbert back there by himself in an empty backfield? Because Gary Pinkel is a stubborn man. He believes in his way of doing things. And he likely views any suggestion that something else might work as unfair criticism. The thing is, Missouri is in a position to experiment. Colorado doesn't run very well, doesn't pass very well, doesn't play defense very well and judging from the ying and yank at quarterback isn't coached very well.

Missouri-Colorado at a glance - NewsFlash - mlive.com

Key Matchup Missouri LBs vs. Colorado RBs. Missouri's depth at linebacker will be measured after starter Luke Lambert dislocated his shoulder. Will Ebner could see more playing time in the middle. The Buffaloes will be without TB Darrell Scott for a second straight game after he had arthroscopic surgery on his knee Oct. 22. Missouri will see a steady dose of Rodney Stewart, who leads the team with 467 yards rushing.

Buffs' Hawkins cites youth, erratic play for 2-5 mark - NCAA Football - SI.com

Colorado coach Dan Hawkins turned his weekly news conference into a state of the program speech, delivering a 23-minute address on why the Buffaloes are struggling this season.

Woelk: Hansen eager to put pressure on his shoulders - Boulder Daily Camera

Scout.com: 2009 CFN Big 12 Week 9 Staff Picks

Colorado …at Kansas State 20 ... Colorado 6 ... And the disaster is back. A week after the seemingly breakthrough win over Kansas, Colorado’s offense went back into the tank as Tyler Hanson didn’t provide any of the spark he showed against the Jayhawks, and now the quarterback flip-flopping has kicked in. Cody Hawkins was a big problem before, and now he might have to be the answer to try to save his dad’s job. At 2-5, all isn’t quite lost yet, especially with home games against Missouri and Texas A&M up next, but with the way the O is playing, it’s going to take something special to get a win the rest of the way.

Missouri running game shows life against Texas - KansasCity.com

Starting Saturday at Colorado, Missouri faces a string of five straight must-win games if the Tigers hope merely to dream of winning a third straight Big 12 North title. If their 0-3 start becomes 0-4 against the 2-5 Buffaloes, even the most tenuous of connections to that dream fall away. It isn’t as if Missouri’s coaches came up with an instant cure to a running game problem that was supposed to be a plus when Pinkel praised the depth and talent of his running back corps, and the potential of the offensive line.

West Virgina Mountaineers vs. Colorado Buffaloes: Keys to the Game

irish1611 — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 18:00:21 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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The Colorado Buffaloes have a chance to make some believers out of all of us tonight. A win against an athletic West Virginia team in their own back yard where they are so tough to beat would make everyone reconsider their thoughts on this years' Buffs team. Is this game a must win if Colorado has hopes of going to a bowl game? Like we talked about earlier this week, the number of winnable games is rapidly decreasing to a point where an upset in a game like tonight is probably needed. If the 17 point underdogs have any shot tonight, here are five things that need to happen for the Buffs to walk out of Morgantown with a win.

Hawkins and Co. >>>>>>>>>>>> Bill Stewart and Co.

It all starts and stops for me there. Dan Hawkins showed he could out coach Bill Stewart a little bit last year. The CU staff out-coached the West Virginia staff in the first five minutes of last year's game and held on. To win this year, Dan Hawkins and Co. need to be better in every phase the entire game. When we watch tonight, we need to say many times: "that was a great play call or I really like the blitz in that situation or the Buffs seem to be in the right spots compared to West Virginia." The Colorado Buffaloes are not that far behind West Virginia on talent level, certainly not 17 points worse. It is up to the coaches to get these players ready to go, in the right positions to exceed and out-coach the one and only Bill Stewart. Dan Hawkins has a great opportunity to change the tide of the season tonight. He has been preaching that this squad is still a good football team and that he believes they just need to make a few tweaks. If that is the case, the Buffs need to be ready to go on full cylinders tonight. Make us believe now coach!

Time to Grow Up and Be Aggressive

You ever watch a Florida or an Oklahoma and then watch the Buffs and go, "where is the intensity compared to those other teams?" I know I do. The Buffs need to start playing with an attitude tonight. Part of that falls on Hawkins to instill, which he gets plenty of heat for, but part of that falls on the players and team leaders to motivate themselves. The Colorado Buffaloes need to grow up tonight. If they come out flat, come out lethargic, they will get waxed on national television on the road like they usually do. Is this the night the team steps up and defines change in the program. A few leaders on this team need to answer the call and make sure everyone is ready to go.

Force Turnovers

It has been well documented that the West Virginia Mountaineers lost to Auburn mostly because they turned the ball over five times. West Virginia quarterback Jarrett Brown has thrown 6 interceptions in the last two weeks, five against the Tigers. On the road, winning the turnover battle is crucial and tonight in my mind, the Buffs need to be at +3 in turnover margin to come out victorious.

Jimmy Smith, Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown and Ben Burney: it is time to join the party and make some interceptions. These four players need to make Bill Stewart pay if he chooses to throw the ball against the Buffs. This group in the preseason was picked to be dominant in the Big 12. Tonight would be a good time to start proving that out.

Weather the Tide Early

We know how the Buffs perform when the get behind (Toledo and Colorado State) and we know how they perform when the get ahead (Wyoming). The biggest fear tonight is that the Buffs come out lethargic, West Virginia puts up 14 points early and the Buffs go into a pass frenzy offense. In the Colorado's two losses, the opponent has scored on their opening drive.

The first four series of the game will be crucial. If the Buffs get can get the Mountaineers offense off the field twice and can show some movement offensively, maybe even get an early lead, I like the Buffs chances to keep this game close. Getting in a shoot out earlier against the 10th ranked offense will be a recipe for disaster that the Buffs won't win. Colorado needs to play a game similar to last year, keep West Virginia under 20 - 23 points.

Win the Big Play Battle

Finally, the Buffs must show that they can contain playmakers on defense and on offense, they need to show they have playmakers. The defense will be tasked with kepping Noel Devine in front of them and must pressure Jarrett Brown. Ron Collins will have his work cut out for him in trying to create a scheme for the front seven to acheive the level of containment the Buffs need to be successful (see Keys to the Game #1 above). As for the Buffs offense, the offensive line needs to play up to their full potential tonight and well, it would be nice to see Darrell Scott, Rodney Stewart, Brian Lockridge, Andre Simmons, Anthony Wright and Markques Simas be put in a position to give this offense some explosiveness.

Bottom line - Will this team answer the call or will they fold? They have a big opportunity to get back on track tonight.

Colorado Buffaloes vs. Wyoming Cowboys: Keys to the Game

irish1611 — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 15:01:49 -0000

Colorado Buffaloes RB Rodney Stewart returns from injury this week against the Wyoming Cowboys.

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Many Buff fans are going to have a nervous walk into the game today or a tough time turning on the television. I know I will. It has been a difficult two weeks for Colorado Buffalo supporters, and we are all left wondering what will happen next. Today, the Wyoming Cowboys come to Boulder in another matchup that just 13 days ago, many thought should be a double digit-plus victory in preparation for a prime time matchup with West Virginia. Instead of being undefeated and coasting, the Buffs are 0 - 2 and searching for an identity anywhere and everywhere. With the schedule getting drastically tougher in the coming weeks, Colorado needs to find their way desperately today. The Buffs will get some help with the debut of WR Markques Simas, the much heralded receiver that has yet to see the field due to off the field issues, as well the supposed return of RB Rodney Stewart, the Buffs leading rusher from a year ago who played only sparingly against Colorado St. two weeks ago. Many saw the emergence of RB Darrell Scott last week against Toledo, going for 85 yards in the first half. Scott had a bruised knee this week so it will be interesting to see how much time he gets today especially while throwing Stewart back into the mix.

Sticking to the offensive side of the ball, it is now week three of the season and the fifth week that highly touted wideout Andre Simmons has been at the University of Colorado. He has only caught one pass against Colorado State and has been very limited in both playing time and the type of routes the coaches have him running. Is this going to be another case where after the season (i.e. Tyler Hansen) Buff fans will collectively look back and say what a waste of a year of eligibility? It's time to stop coddling play makers. They can't make plays from the bench. If it is problem of preparation, that falls on the coaches shoulders. That is what they get paid to do; to get their horses ready to run. Colorado needs to get their horses on the field today: (if healthy) Darrell Scott, Rodney Stewart, Brian Lockridge, Anthony Wright, Markques Simas and Andre Simmons. I like the sound of those six players getting touches.

But most will tell you to look at the defense and the men in the trenches to find the biggest trouble spots for the 2009 Colorado Buffaloes team. Defensive coordinator Ron Collins has said that the intensity was raised in practice this week as well as a simplified defense installed. Wyoming's offense is still trying to find an identity itself so it might be a good combination for the Colorado defense to get well in a hurry... it might also be a good time for the Wyoming offense to find success. To me, it all starts up front. Colorado needs to pressure the quarterback and that will have to come from the linebacker spot, a position heralded as one of the best groups in a long time but has been overshadowed by poor execution and the propensity to give up big plays. If the Buffs don't commit to playing in the Wyoming offensive backfield today, Dave Christensen has enough experience against Colorado to be successful and send the team from Boulder home 0 - 3.

Today's game is all about pride. How much pride does this coaching staff and group of players have? Who is going to step up in that locker room, in that athletic department and say "enough is enough." We will know a lot about this game and this program in the first 10 minutes. It's all about how they respond.

Other than the few important factors mentioned above, nothing is more important than getting a lead early. Win the coin toss and go score. You know the statistic: Colorado has not led in one game this season and has been behind 109:05 out of a possible 120 minutes this season. That puts a large amount of pressure on a team to always be swimming against the current. This is a fragile team right now with a coaching staff that is on the ropes, getting a lead in a game might snowball things in the right direction. Allowing the Pokes to come out and take the lead might be a breaking point.

And finally, it's on the coaches today. Collectively, they need to call the best games of their lives. It is time for Ron Collins to get his players in a position so that they can get a few three and outs to get their swagger back. It is time for offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau to debunk a trend of not getting play makers the ball in rewarding spots. All said, it is time for the coaching staff to actually look like they have out-prepared the opposition in terms of game planning and intensity. No more excuses of "a few more tweaks" and "we are so close." It is time for the Buffs' opposition to have to use those terms, not Colorado coaches. Every time you use the words "we are close" and a "few more tweaks", it means you weren't prepared for what the other team was bringing to the table or you don't have the horses to play with Wyoming, Toledo and Colorado State. After four years, either way, it falls on you.

Go Buffs, get a W.

Colorado Buffaloes vs Toledo Rockets: Keys to the Game & Prediction

irish1611 — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:54:50 -0000

Four quick Ralphie Report Keys to the Game and a Prediction

Re-establish the Trenches

Nothing was more shocking last weekend than the Colorado Buffaloes offensive and defensive line getting manhandled by the Colorado State Rams. The defensive line failed to define themselves as a unit that can get pressure on the quarterback and the offensive line played timid, soft, slow and without a mean streak. Toledo comes into the game with the nation's leading passer in Aaron Opelt, an offensive line with over 90 games of experience and two legitimate receiving threats in Stephen Williams and Eric Page. If the Buffs don't establish a pass rush, it could be a long day. Defensive coordinator Ron Collins will need to be creative in his schemes. As for the offensive line, its all about attitude. The Buffs should be able to physical manhandle the smaller Toledo line up front.

Find that Missing Swagger, Mean Streak

This team looked unconfident and mentally unprepared to do the work needed to be a successful team. The coaching was questionable as it looked like panic when the Buffs were on the field. Going into the first road game of the year, Colorado needs to take an us against the world approach, play with a little fire and hit people. It is time to send a message that last week was a fluke and this 2009 Colorado Buffaloes team will hit you in the mouth from the first whistle. Show some emotion and knock some people around.

Ball Control, Ball Control

You know the stat. Toledo threw the ball 61 times last week, ran 91 total plays in their uptempo offense and racked up close to 500 yards in total offense. This team is going to try and wear down the underwhelming Buffaloes' defensive line tonight. I expect the Toledo defense to load the box against Colorado and make them throw. It will be imperative that Andre Simmons and Scotty McKnight have big games in the early going if the Buffaloes need to loosen up the front seven or eight of Toledo, who have up 315 yards rushing last week. Toledo coach Tim Beckman made it a point in his interviews this week that they are putting plans in place to be better against the run and I assume that is dedicating more men to the box. The good thing for Colorado is Toledo starts two freshmen and a sophomore in their secondary so the Buffs should have some opportunities in the passing game if they can get protection. I am not going to sugarcoat it, this isn't a top 10 defense and if the Buffs can get them on their heels early and pound the ball at them in the running game, Colorado can be successful when they have the ball.

The key is don't take bad sacks, limit the turnovers and stay out of third and longs. If the Buffs can get solid gains on first down, they will be in good shape.

Get Playermakers in Playmaking Positions

A favorite of the Ralphie Report's because, well, we don't know if this staff is capable of finding their playmakers and putting them in a position to succeed. The three playmakers I am looking for tonight to have an increased role in this offense are Brian Lockridge, Andre Simmons and Darrell Scott. If you look at the stats from the last game, you realize that these three have big play potential but did not receive the touches:

Brian Lockridge - 1 carry, 9 yards 1 TD
Darrell Scott - 1 carry, 1 yard 1 reception,14 yards - 7.5 yards per touch
Andre Simmons - 1 reception, 44 yards
__________
3 Players - 4 touches, 68 yards and 1 TD at an average of 17 yards a touch

So what does this mean: Their were a total of 61 plays for the Buffs against Colorado State for a total of 251 yards for an average of 4.11 yards/play. These three players on four plays averaged 17 yards a touch and a touchdown. So what does that mean for the rest of the team? 57 plays, 183 yards and a paltry 3.21 yards/play. 27% of the Buffs offense came from the three mentioned players above on just 6.6% of the plays.

Get the playmakers the ball.

Prediction Time

Toledo's offense matchups up very well against Colorado if the Buffs don't get pressure on the quarterback and we think the Buffs offense is at an advantage when they have the ball. So that puts the extra pressure on the defenses tonight. I have to think that the back seven for the Buffs will play better than they did last week and be up for the challenge against a strong passing team. Other than S Barry Church for Toledo, the Buffs defense is stronger than Toledo's.

Back to the offenses. When it comes down to it, is Toledo's offense better than the Buffs and can the Rockets offense overcome the shortcomings on their defense to outplay the Colorado offense? As you can tell, I am having a hard time rationalize the prediction for a Buffs win with any confidence.

Less than 20,000 tickets have been sold to this game so while the Buffs will play on the road, the crowd will probably not be considered too hostile.

I give the Buffs the nod over Toledo tonight solely because I don't want doomsday part two to occur on Saturday morning.
I think both teams have the ability to win by 10+ points because, let's face it, Toledo is rebuilding in a lot of areas and everyone saw the Buffs play last Sunday night. For me, Colorado wins 27-24 in a close one, certainly not the dominating performance to make people feel a lot better.

Live game thread tonight should be publised a half hour before the game. Crack a cold one, celebrate Friday night and come join us! Go Buffs!

Poll

How many points do the Buffs need to win by against Toledo to get you feeling confident again about the 2009 season?

They need a blowout, 17+ points on the road and a physically dominating performance will show me last week was a fluke

72 votes

If they are able to control the line of scrimmage and win around 10 points, I can put Colorado State behind me

29 votes

Just win. Our track record on the road is horrible. A win on the road on a short week is enough to get excited about and get ready for Wyoming next week

29 votes

A win against Toledo no matter how big or small won't get me confident in this team or coaches. Too many unknowns. The fact that we are this worried about a non-BCS team speaks volumes

44 votes

174 votes | Poll has closed

The Colorado Buffaloes Open as 3.5 Point Favorites Over the Toledo Rockets

irish1611 — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 20:41:41 -0000

Toledo quarterback Aaron Opelt had an impressive day for the Rockets, albeit in defeat. Opelt threw for 423 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Purdue Boilermakers this past Saturday on the road.

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Like it or not, there is a next week so hopefully, like the players will do, we gotta wash this one away, write it off as being one of those days and hope for better things next week (I know, it is a stretch at this point in time but I don't know what else to tell you!).

It is a short week so we will get to work right away to get you some information on Toledo. The Buffs will open as a 3.5 point favorite on the road. It will be interesting to see where the line moves.

Toledo played Purdue this past weekend and gave the Boilermakers' pass defense some problems. Toledo QB Aaron Opelt threw the ball 67 times completing 41 for 423 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Once again, the Buffs defense will be matched up with an offensive line that has a tremendous amount of experience. It looks like Purdue's front four handled the running game, only allowing 70 yards on 22 carries but with the way the Buffs defensive line was moved off the ball against Colorado State, this Toledo offense might even be more dynamic against Colorado.

On the defensive side, it looks like Purdue had their way with the Rockets from the beginning, racking up an impressive amount of yardage. Purdue quarterback Joey Elliot completed 17 of 28 passes for 220 yards, 3 TD's and 3 INT's. But where the Boilermakers really were impressive was on the ground. Running back Ralph Bolden carried the ball 21 times for 234 yards, good for an 11.1 yards per clip and two scores. Overall, Purdue ran the ball 39 times for 315 yards and four scores. Here is the ESPN box score if you want to take a closer look.

That is a boat load of rushing yards.

Unfortunately, the Buffs might only give running back's Darrell Scott and Brian Lockridge the ball one time each against Toledo and throw the ball 40+ times so we might not be able to exploit the weak Toledo defensive front. You would think the Buffs, regardless of how many points they might be down in this game would realize that running the ball at an average of 8.1 yards per carry like Purdue did against Toledo will be better than throwing the ball 40 times at 5.6 yards/attempt like they did against Colorado State. Simple math to me, but who knows.

The Purdue SBNation site, Hammer and Rails, will be a good place to get a look at an opponent's perspective of Toledo if you want to check out some detailed thoughts.

This comment by Hammer and Rails got me a little more worried than I was about the game on the road against Toledo:

The defense, however, is a concern. Honestly, I think they were just worn out from the no huddle, the heat, and 67 passing attempts from Opelt. Notice, Toledo got 17 points in the final 20 minutes. This was when Kawann Short, Mike Neal, and Nickaro Golding all had to head to the locker room for fluids. Our entire D-line was gassed and getting no rush, so Opelt had plenty of time.

They might not have the heat on Friday night but they are going to try and get the Buffs worn out on a short week with travel which doesn't bode well for a team that is already low on depth and playmakers at the defensive line. Further, the propensity to give up the big pass play against Colorado State will obviously be another concern as Toledo will look to air it against Colorado from the first whistle after watching this Sunday's game film. It sounds like Purdue had trouble getting pressure on Opelt and no Buff fan is going to feel confident that they will be able to get to the Rocket's signal caller either. Given the time, Opelt looks to be relatively accurate and this offense isn't afraid to challenge defenses.

The Buffs won't win this game with another 17 point effort.

CFB Big 12 Roundup: Week One

rockchalk — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 18:35:37 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Where did you put us in the Big 12 Power Rankings?(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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Note: This story's comment section turned into an impromptu Open Game Thread for the absolutely aces (fantastic/awesome/incredible/super/sensational/awe-inspiring/etc,) game between Miami and Florida State. I highly recommend reading through the comments, if you have time, but just as a warning -- only the first five are actually about the (brilliantly written, I might add) story. The rest are all Canes-Noles. It starts roughly 5 minutes into the 4th quarter. And yes, we put up that many numbers. It is a future first ballot Hall of Famer in the sometime-to-be-created Rock Chalk Talk Hall of Fame, and is that good. Read it.

Everyone's favorite Big 12 weekly wrapup from college basketball is back, this time for college football!

(Applause)

Seriously, though, this should be a weekly feature, highlighting all of the Big 12 teams, and how they fared in their games. It will also take a brief look towards next week, along with providing some form of Power Rankings for the week. In a way, it's my own version of the Big 12 Roundtable.

So, let's get this started. We'll work through the teams based off of their preseason ranking according to me:

This Week's Games

Iowa State 34 North Dakota State 17 -- The 17-point margin of victory looks nice, as well it should, but I don't know exactly how it happened. Both teams had 2 turnovers, with the Clones only outgaining the Fighting Ben Woodsides by 54 yards. A scary note for the Block-I's: NDSU runningback Pat Paschall piled up 146 yards rushing on only 21 carries, which is 7 yards per. That isn't good. So, while Iowa State's offense certainly looked competent, the defense needs to take some serious steps forward or, uh, ouch.

Next Week -- vs. Iowa -- Clone Chronicles

Nebraska 49 Florida Atlantic 3 -- This was exactly the type of performance the Cornhuskers needed to open the season. A dominating victory, leaving no doubt about who the better team was or anything, against a solid, bowl-winning Florida Atlantic team. The key for the Huskers was the running game, as Roy Helu Jr. just got whatever he wanted, picking up 9.5 yards a carry. That is ridiculous.

Next Week -- vs. Arkansas State -- Corn Nation

Texas Tech 38 North Dakota 13 -- Unlike North Dakota State, the Fighting Sioux are a D-II school. Division II. And while the Red Raiders were never in danger of actually losing the game, it certainly wasn't the preposterous blowout that it easily could have been. Taylor Potts had a shiny 405 total yards passing, but he also threw three interceptions, which is obviously worrisome for the Techers. I'm assuming it had everything to do with getting Potts as many attempts as possible, but Mike Leach essentially abandoned the run altogether, calling only 14 runs all game long. 14. 53 passes were called, combining Potts' 48 attempts with 5 runs/sacks for negative yardage. That is a big disparity.

Next Week -- vs. Rice -- Double-T Nation

Kansas State 21 UMass 17 -- Uhhhhhh. I mean, I know Bill Snyder is famous for vanilla-izing his playbook against terrible opponents, and Carson Coffman is a true QB in nobody's eyes, but still -- they won by four against the Minutemen. A win is a win, and it counts the same, and may be more valuable in the long run than a total blowout would have been. But still, this can't be comforting to the Powercat faithful. What should ease the pain is K-State's 195 yard advantage, with only Carson Coffman mistakes (1 INT, 1 fumble) keeping the Minutemen alive. Their D was fabulous against the pass, holding UMass to only 3.2 yards per attempt, but were poor against the run, giving up more than 5 yards a run to UMass' starting runningback.

Next Week -- @ Louisiana Lafayette -- Bring On the Cats

Texas A&M 41 New Mexico 6 -- Really, of all of the Big 12 teams, this was almost assuredly the performance of the week. The Lobos have a brand new coaching staff, yes, and last year the Aggies made the trip to Mexico Nuevo as opposed to this year's matchup at Kyle Field, but still -- the Ampersands won 28-22 last year, and 41-6 this year. That is a big difference. Might Mike Sherman, to the surprise of the entire world, know what he's doing afterall? The score wasn't just garbage-time points, either. Texas A&M surged ahead to a 20-0 lead and was winning 34-6 by the end of the 3rd quarter. They outgained the Lobos by nearly 400 yards, and Jerrod Johnson looked absolutely fantastic. 349 yards passing plus another 50 running, paired with freshman Christine Michael's near 100-yard day was a large positive for the Ags. Now, maybe New Mexico is just way worse than everyone expected, so it's too early to really draw much. But, the Aggies looked like a bowl team on Saturday night.

Next Week -- BYE -- I Am the 12th Man

Texas 59 Louisiana Monroe 20 -- Was anyone surprised, at all, about this final score? Yeah, I didn't really think so. This is basically the performance everyone was expecting from the 'Horns -- absolute domination on the offensive side of the ball, with periodic struggles on defense. It should be noted, however, that the Warhawks scored 10 of their points in the 4th quarter, when the game was more than in hand the subs, I'm sure, were playing. So, periodic struggles is unfair. However, Colt McCoy did throw a pick, so I think it's definitely time for Bevo to panic.

Next Week -- @ Wyoming -- Burnt Orange Nation

Missouri 37 Illinois 9 -- What did I tell you? Missouri is going to be good this year, people -- really good. I'm not even positive they won't be better than last season. Of course, before I get too high up on a pedestal of genius, just remind me that I was just regurgitating the information that RMN's numbers told me to believe. Really, it is math that called Missouri, so score one for math. The mathless wonders in Champaign (I mean, who really thinks that Regis Benn has ever attended a calculus class?) were outclassed from the opening whistle, as Blaine Gabbert looked marvelous. Now, not marvelous enough to supercede Tom Brady in football history (I'm looking at you, Jason Whitlock), but still -- pretty damn good. I just hope our eerily similar transition next year is as seamless as the Tigers' will be*.

Next Week -- vs. Bowling Green State -- Rock M Nation

* Seriously, it's downright creepy the similarities between the 08-09 turnover for the Tigers and the 09-10 turnover for the Jayhawks. Another reason to watch the Tigers closely this season. I mean, Missouri lost Chase Daniel (Todd Reesing), Jeremy Maclin (Dezmon Briscoe), Chase Coffman (Kerry Meier) and William Moore (Darrell Stuckey). I mean, wow. We don't really have a Ziggy Hood, and there are a couple other minor places where the comparison falls off, but it isn't bad. We do lose our runningback, while they kept theirs. So, yeah, maybe not as good as I thought. Still.

Baylor 24 Wake Forest 21 -- Huh? Robert Griffin III, who is the Bears' lone good player, was held to a combined 177 yards, and the Bears won? On the road? Against a ACC bowl team? Damn. Maybe it isn't just the Robert Griffin show, after all. The Bears scored on a WR pass to give them the would-be game-winner, with runningback Jay Finley also taking on the brunt of the workload. And of course, the defense is quite good, led by Joe Pawalek at LB, and they did a good job against Riley Skinner and Company. I love Baylor.

Next Week -- BYE -- NO BLOG EXISTS

Colorado 17 Colorado State 23 -- Whoops. And let me just tell you, it wasn't really a 6-point loss. It was 23-3 at one point, and the Rams looked like they were just getting started. Obviously, that isn't true, and the Buffs stepped it up towards the end, but it was clear from play one who the better team was out there on the field. And a lot of the time, it wasn't really close. Cody Hawkins predictably looked quite awful back there at QB, and for reasons unknown to rational humans, Darrell Scott was handed off to once. One carry. That's it. Beginning to regret the decision to go to Boulder, there, Darrell? Of course, it wasn't just that Hawkins decided to focus on Rodney Stewart or Brian Lockridge, instead. Nah. Lockridge only had one carry himself (a 9-yard TD run) while Stewart only picked up 6 carries. That is a combined 8 for your three best runningbacks, Dan Hawkins. And your son, who is awful, threw the ball 40 times. Uh, wut?

Next Week -- @ Toledo -- The Ralphie Report

Oklahoma State 24 Georgia 10 -- The performance of the day for the Big 12, at least when it comes to national perception. With all of the hype that the Pokes have received this offseason, it was crucial they at least showed up against an SEC team considered to be the 4th best this season, and who lost their top QB, RB and WR over the offseason. After not showing up for much of the first half, they managed to hang around, then somehow take a 10-7 lead into halftime. Even now, I'm not sure how they did that. But then in the second half, they showed who really was the best team on the field. It is the lynchpin to the upcoming campaign, Big 12 > SEC. Also, Bill Young knows how to coach a little sumpin'-sumpin' on defense, huh? Dayum. Now, I think part of it may have been just a bad Georgia offense, but still -- last year's Oklahoma State defense gives up a lot more than 10 points.

Next Week -- vs. Houston -- NO BLOG EXISTS

Oklahoma 13 BYU 14 -- Sam Bradford or no Sam Bradford, this one wasn't good for Boomer Sooner. Even before Sam Bradford went out with a sprained shoulder, Oklahoma just looked bad. At times, really bad. Their offensive line was in shambles, with the Mormons consistently getting pressure on Sam. And, as everyone predicted last season, Sam isn't quite sure what to do with pressure. He never had less than 18 seconds last year to throw, so when he was only given 2 and 3 on Saturday, it wasn't pretty. Landry Jones, owner of the world's ugliest mustache (besides Trey Hillman, of course), looked even worse, predictably. It wasn't just worse, though -- Landry (can we call him Lance?) looked absolutely awful. No Jermaine Greshman couldn't have been positive, either. Of course, it isn't like Oklahoma's D was awesome, either -- Max Hall basically ripped them to shreds, and it could have been worse except for a pair of Max Hall mental mistakes. Not a good sign for Boomer Sooner.

Next Week -- vs. Idaho State -- Crimson and Cream Machine

What 2 Watch 4 (I Can Be Cool Too, ESPN)

Basically, this is what I want to see from every Big 12 team next week. It maybe as simple as just asking for a victory, or it may be as specific as getting Player X the ball more.

Iowa State -- Stop the running game. Iowa lost Shonn Greene, yes, but they still have a dangerous ground attack. If you can't improve on last week's putrid performance, no way you pull off the upset.

Nebraska -- Rinse and repeat. Arkansas State is about the same quality of team as the Owls, so I want to see an equally dominant performance.

Texas Tech -- Taylor Potts needs to improve. Obviously, the yardage totals look nice, but he needs to take better care of the ball.

Kansas State -- Don't lose. ULa-La is a good team, certainly a lot better than UMass, and plus it is on the road. More specifically, shore up the running defense, but as long as you come out of there with a W, be happy.

Texas -- Rinse and repeat. Same situation as Nebraska. Now, it doesn't have to be quite as dominant, as Wyoming is probably a step up and it is in Laramie, but you should still win by 24 points easily.

Missouri -- Don't get overconfident. Yes, you looked incredible on Saturday. But don't underestimate just how bad Illinois probably is. They are awful. They'll be lucky to make a bowl this year. Book it. And Bowling Green is an improved team who crushed Troy last Thursday night, the predicted winner of the Sun Belt. Not too much partying, Blaine. A loss to the Falcons erases all of the positive goodwill of a win over the Juices Benz.

Colorado -- Please, just win. Please. If you lose to Toledo, you aren't making a bowl. Just please, win. Please.

Oklahoma State -- Basically the same as Missouri, just take out the part about how bad the opponent was. Georgia actually is a pretty good team. Maybe really good, even. Still, Houston is pretty good, too, and Casey Keenum is a stud, so let's not go out partying or nothing. I had to speak in a double-negative, there, because that's how they speak. And I really want them to listen to me.

Oklahoma -- Coach the hell out of Landry (Lance?) this week. Idaho State shouldn't be an issue, but depending on how long Sammy is out, you might end up playing an opponent where Landry/Lance will have to play well. He better be up for the challenge. Oh, also -- shave his freaking mustache. It's a disgrace to the world.

Power Rankings

We are going explanation-less, as they are mostly self-explanatory. If you have a complaint, raise it in the comments section, and I'll get back to you. Unless you're KC.

Texas (1-0)
Oklahoma State (1-0)
Missouri (1-0)
Nebraska (1-0)
Baylor (1-0)
Kansas (1-0)
Oklahoma (0-1)
Texas A&M (1-0)
Iowa State (1-0)
Texas Tech (1-0)
Kansas State (1-0)
Colorado (0-1)

I know I changed things up a bunch. I'm expecting a bunch of criticism. It's okay. And just to nip it in the bud, Kansas is as low as it is because the three above them (assuming no one has an issue with Texas or OSU ahead of them) all had more impressive wins. All three played MUCH better teams than a 1-AA team with 3 wins combined in the last 3 years. I think we are better than all three teams, but we'll see.

That's all, for now. I'll be back next week.