SB Nation - Patrick Devenny

Wednesday Buff Bites - The Talk Continues to Center Around Dan Hawkins' Job Status

irish1611 — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:00:26 -0000

Hawkins Tells Staff He's Got One More Year - cbs4denver.com

Two sources inside the CU football progam told CBS4's Vic Lombardi that Hawkins recently met with Unversity Chancellor Phil DiStefano and came away from the meeting with the understanding that he's safe for another year no matter what happens on Friday against Nebraska.

What went wrong? - The Longmont Times-Call

The Colorado Buffaloes are already wrestling with their lack of success in 2009. Have been for weeks. But with the end coming after Friday’s Nebraska game (1:30 p.m., ABC) and expectations so far from being met, hard answers are expected soon. No one wants 2010 to resemble 2009. At all. So here’s the key question: What went wrong? Maybe coach Dan Hawkins shouldn’t have publicly said anything —– no matter what it was — about winning 10 games. Maybe changing offensive coordinators after spring drills hurt more than anyone could have expected; four offensive line coaches in five years shows. And maybe a less funky schedule will help. But the consensus is that this team’s biggest problem boiled down to one word.

Confidence.

Huskers Prep For Potent Colorado Offense
Colorado with a potent offense??? News to me.

"He is similar (to guys we've seen). He has a good arm and he's real slippery. He can find his way out of pressure and when he does he is always looking downfield. Again, you have to do a good job in coverage, but you still have to deal with him. That has kind of been the theme of the last few weeks. We've been facing quarterback after quarterback who can run and hurt you with their feet. You have to account for that all the time." Pelini noted that while they know there is a possibility of seeing quarterback Cody Hawkins, the offensive scheme as a whole does not change. He said Colorado boasts one of the biggest offensive lines they have encountered all year. "(They are) one of the better lines we've seen. They are big and athletic, too. They can move their feet really well. They get out and pull on plays and find people in space. It's a good offensive line, they've come a long way."

Much more after the jump...

What would Cody do? | All Things Colorado Sports

The player said he was positive that Cody will return to the Buffaloes for the 2010 season, even if his father, Dan Hawkins, is fired as head coach following this season. "Cody loves this place, and he loves Colorado football," the player said. "I don’t think he’d go anywhere."

Big 12 predictions, Week 13 - Big 12 Blog - ESPN

Nebraska 23, Colorado 10: These two teams have played some great games in recent seasons. But the Cornhuskers’ defense is too solid not to come prepared, even if it did clinch the North title last week. The Colorado team should be poised for an emotional effort in what could be Dan Hawkins’ last game. Despite Colorado’s ‘strong showing at Oklahoma State last week, the Nebraska defense will be ready to throttle Tyler Hansen and whatever offense the Buffaloes can muster. Look for Alex Henery to be a huge factor kicking in the high altitude in Boulder.

Commentary: Win or lose Friday, CU Dan Hawkins coach deserves one more year - KDVR
Stick to the telecasts, not articles...

Here is the reality, though: win or lose Friday against arch rival Nebraska, Hawkins will most likely return to coach CU next year and here is the kicker, the decision has very little to do with football. The bottom line in Boulder is this: wins and losses are secondary to the image of the program.

CU Buffs land 14 on All-Big 12 academic team - Boulder Daily Camera

Fourteen members of the Colorado football team were named to the Academic All-Big 12 team, the conference announced today. Colorado placed nine players on the first team and five on the second team. In order to qualify, a player must have maintained at least a 3.2 GPA and participated in at least 60 percent of his team's games for first-team consideration and a 3.0 GPA for second team honors. Colorado's first team members include Jake Behrens, Ben Burney, Patrick Devenny, Dustin Ebner, Will Pericak, Travis Sandersfeld, Devin Shanahan, Bret Smith and Nate Solder. Second-team Buffs were David Clark, Marquez Herrod, Jon Major, Tyler Sale and Luke Walters. The conference named a total of 170 players from all 12 programs to the team. Nick Florence of Baylor and Austin Cassidy and Sean Fisher of Nebraska were nominated with a 4.00 grade point average.

What to watch for in the Big 12, Week 13 - Big 12 Blog - ESPN

Dan Hawkins' possible last game in Boulder: The embattled Colorado coach’s job has been in question since a slow start after he boldly predicting his team would challenge for the Big 12 North title. Instead, the Buffaloes were the first team in the conference eliminated from bowl consideration. The Buffaloes showed some promise in last week’s narrow loss at Oklahoma State, although they repeatedly made critical mistakes and penalties that kept them from winning. Will the Colorado coach be able to circle the wagons and get his team to play one final strong performance? Or is it already too late for him to save his job after a disappointing 16-32 career record?

A little doom, a little gloom at the holidays for CU football | All Things Colorado Sports

What, you think the economy stinks? Check out what’s going on on the Front Range football front, where …
* The Broncos’ offense considers a field goal a moral touchdown. Or maybe you haven’t noticed that the Local 11 haven’t scored an offensive touchdown at home in November.
* CSU just lost to New Mexico, which hadn’t won a game since New Mexico was a territory. Or seemingly so.
* CU has lost 20 of its last 22 road games and hasn’t won a Big 12 North roadie during the Dan Hawkins era.

Omaha.com - The Omaha World-Herald: Big Red Today - Beleaguered Buffs won't back down

Colorado players say the uncertainty surrounding coach Dan Hawkins' job status hasn't been a distraction. "There's a lot of stuff being said outside of the program, but you step into our locker room or in meetings or in practice and it's hardly spoken of,'' CU tight end Devenny said.

Wideout Simas gives jolt to the Buffs' offense - The Denver Post

"The chemistry between the wide receivers and tight ends and Tyler has improved over the last few weeks," Simas said. "Tyler knows that if the defense gives us this look, I'm going to be here. And if the defensive gives us that look, I'm going to be there. It's a feel thing we're developing."

Brooks: Seniors' Legacy Better Than 3-8 - CUBuffs.com

The Colorado football program's 17 seniors have so much more to their collective resumes than a disappointing 3-8 record entering Friday's final game against Nebraska (1:30 p.m., Folsom Field, ABC). The Buffaloes' three senior captains - Marcus Burton, Riar Geer, Jeff Smart - are a storyline within the tale, each having persevered through individual hardships to reach the point where their teammates recognized and honored them.

CU's Hagan wants critics to stay patient - Boulder Daily Camera

Henderson: McCartney knows the heat under Hawkins - The Denver Post

Colorado comes up short against Arizona in overtime - KansasCity.com

For the second night in a row, not-so-lowly Colorado took a perennial powerhouse the distance. For the second night in a row, the Buffaloes barely missed a statement victory.

CU`s Higgins making name for self - Boulder Daily Camera

"Great player," Wildcats guard Nick Wise, an All-American candidate, noticed. "Before watching film on him I never really heard too much about him. He`s an All-Big 12 player and that says enough about him because it`s a great conference."

Buffs Drop OT Thriller in Maui - CUBuffs.com

Both teams protected the ball after halftime as Colorado committed zero turnovers in the second half and Arizona only committed two. Arizona's hot shooting from the three-point line proved too much for the Buffaloes to overcome though. The Wildcats shot 14-of-24 (58.3 percent) from beyond the arc as a whole, including a perfect 5-of-5 from Jamelle Horne. Wise went 5-of-9 from long distance and his 30 points were a career high. Horne was Arizona's second leading scorer with 17. Arizona's 14 treys today was the most for the program in a single game since the Cats connected on 14-of-23 attempts (60.9 percent) on Jan. 17, 2004, in a 97-72 win at UCLA. That covers a span of 189 games played.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

Browse more photos »

Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

---

Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

Anatomy of Stagnation: Settling For Field Goals, Again

GhostofBigRoy — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 23:12:59 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

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The Big Picture

Two weeks ago, it seemed like over analysis to focus on two stalled drives hidden within the trashing of UTEP. The Longhorns led the nation by converting each of their opportunities inside the red zone. Problem was, and is, that the Texas coaching staff has no idea how to run the football in the red zone, leading to using the WildHorn there against UTEP, with poor results even though Mack Brown admitted that the plays were set up for failure. In fact, the whole offense inside the red zone is still searching for an identity. Which running back should play? Should it be Cody Johnson, who has the strength to pick up some yardage after contact? Should EBS play? Can the Longhorns throw the ball effectively with EBS in the game?

Against Colorado, the Longhorns experienced the same problems, as the first two drives of the game stalled deep on Colorado territory and the Buffaloes blocked the kick on the second drive, destroying red zone perfection for Texas on the season. What's going on here?

First Drive -- The Context

Shockingly and unbelievably, Colorado marched down the field on their first drive, going 66 yards and converting 3rd and 21 with a 25-yard touchdown pass from rag-armed Cody Hawkins to tight end Patrick Devenny. Ask Hawkins to throw the ball any further and his arm might fall off. In fact, judging by the velocity, or complete lack thereof, on the throw that Earl Thomas took to the house and that lofted throw to Devenny might have sapped lil Hawk's arm strength for the night. Note the sarcasm.

Attempting to respond, the Longhorns moved the ball methodically down the field as McCoy targeted Shipley three times for 47 yards. The drive even included Vondrell McGee's longest run of the night -- five yards on his first carry. The jumbo package took two plays to pick up two yards, but eventually got the job done and the beautiful 3rd and 12 throw by McCoy down the sideline to Shipley moved the Longhorns to the Colorado 19 yardline.

1st and 10 CU 19

The Longhorns line up in the WildHorn formation for the first time on the evening, but using Vondrell McGee as the running back for the first time:

Notice that the linebackers are all shaded over to the short side of the field. Even though the Longhorns haven't shown this specific variation of the WildHorn, the defenders seem to suspect something or flat out aren't concerned about McGee's speed to the outside.

Nor should they be, as the play will show. Texas runs a variation of the power play that is a staple of the Wildcat series, but instead of even faking the handoff with McGee, Davis uses him as the lead blocker on the play. In other words, instead of forcing the linebackers to move, they simply have to play downhill. Guess what? It doesn't work as well that way, as the outside linebacker on the wide side of the field, who would be responsible for McGee if he comes in motion, slices into the play and hits Chiles at the line of scrimmage. The play picks up three yards, which ties it for the most successful WildHorn play run in the last two games. At least Hall manages to snap the ball well.

2nd and 7 CU

Texas keeps the same 11 personnel grouping on the field, with EBS moving to the strong side of the field:

At the snap of the ball, Colorado run blitzes all three linebackers and the nickel corner lined up over James Kirkendoll in the slot:

The Colorado defensive coordinator guesses correctly, so the Longhorns don't have the numbers to pick up all the blitzers. It might be a zone read play, as McCoy pulls the ball back from McGee, but it's hard to say because it gets blown up so quickly. McCoy loses three yards on the play and takes a nice pop for his efforts, as well.

3rd and 10 CU 19

On third down, Greg Davis sends Dan Buckner onto the field, replacing EBS. He also calls for the relatively-new bunch formation that Texas debuted several weeks ago:

Will he break tendency and not throw a screen pass out of it?

It turns out that he will, but Colorado drops seven into coverage, including the middle linebacker showing blitz at the line of scrimmage in the above shot. Since the camera angle is terrible, it's impossible to know the routes Texas was running on the play except that John Chiles is the outlet receiver standing at the line of scrimmage. McCoy has solid protection, but can't find any of this three primary receivers on the play, though McGee is open in the right flat just as McCoy tucks the ball to run, picking up three yards. Given the quick reaction of Colorado defenders to McCoy's run, they were probably in zone coverage.

Texas settles for a 32-yard field goal from Hunter Lawrence.

Final Totals

Fourteen plays for 64 yards, 5:58 expired. Five of six passing for 50 yards by McCoy, as well as two carries for zero yards. Two rushes for eight yards for McGee, as well as one catch for negative two yards. Two rushes for three yards for Cody Johnson. One rush for three yards by Chiles, as well as one catch for five yards. Three catches for 47 yards for Shipley. One dropped pass by James Kirkendoll. One missed block for Dan Buckner on the failed shovel pass to McGee.

The Verdict

For the most part, the Texas offense responded well to the Colorado touchdown, converting the 3rd and 12 and the fourth down with Cody Johnson running, but stalled inside the red zone once again.

The new WildHorn power play with McGee blocking did not exactly fail, but it did demonstrate that Davis and Mack Brown fail to understand a key concept of the Wildcat series -- the plays must compliment each other. They must be run more than once or twice a game to take advantage of whatever the defense is giving. If the defense goes with the man in motion every time, the power play or the counter is open. If the defense sells out to stop the power play, the stealer is open to the outside. So simple a caveman can do it. But apparently not Greg Davis.

On the play, the outside was open, but McGee doesn't have the speed to exploit it, a fact the Colorado defense took advantage of to shade all three linebacker towards the short side of the field. In the true Wildcat series, the next play would be the stealer and it would probably work, even with McGee.

If the Longhorns insist on keeping McCoy and two other receivers on the field in the WildHorn, there is no ability to use an h-back in the formation as a lead blocker. Instead of accepting that fact or taking a wide receiver off the field, Davis instead chose to use the running back as a lead blocker. Once again, the problem there is that the defense doesn't have to worry at all about anything going outside to the wide side of the field. Misdirection is quite possibly the key to the Wildcat series and this power play has absolutely none.

The other issue is that Chiles himself said last week that because the defense is keying on him the offense needs to utilize DJ Monroe more to the outside. Instead, Davis put McGee in the game as a lead blocker. Great. The WildHorn could work for the Longhorns but the coaching staff is going about it completely the wrong way.

On the second play featured above, it looked like the Colorado defensive coordinator had read Davis' offensive script before the game, run blitzing into a running play. However, responsbility for the failed play rests on McCoy, who did not check out of it when he saw the blitz. With the nickel corner blitzing, the safety is seven yards off of Kirkendoll, giving McCoy an easy hot read if he checks the play at the line of scrimmage. Even if Colorado then switches out of their blitz, at least the play has a chance.

The third play illustrates several things. First of all, the Longhorns have struggled this season against zone defenses, possibly because the receivers didn't get a lot of game reps last season finding holes in the zone. Secondly, McCoy has not done as good of a job this season of finding his running backs out of the backfield, perhaps as a result of having less trust for McGee and Newton than McCoy had with Chris Ogbonnaya. Finally, the zone defenses help limit McCoy's scrambling ability because the defenders don't have their backs turned to the quarterback. Whatever the case, the Longhorns need to figure it out because defenses are going to continue playing zone defense until McCoy and company make them pay.

Second Drive -- The Context

After the poor start to the game, the Texas defense responded by forcing a three and out on Colorado's second possession. Offensively, the Longhorns dinked and dunked their way down the field to once again get inside the red zone against a statistically-poor Colorado defense. Following his eight yards on two carries on the first drive, McGee struggled to find any room behind the Texas offensive line, picking up three yards on three carries. A second offsides penalty on the drive against Colorado on 3rd and 2 puts Texas inside the CU 10 yardline.

1st and Goal CU 8

Greg Davis calls in for 11 personnel on first down, with Cody Johnson staying in the game after entering the play before to run the ball on third down. Notice EBS on the short side of the field, indicating to me pre snap that the Longhorns are going to run the sorta counter to the left, about the only running play that the coaching staff uses with Johnson:

Unbelievably, it is indeed a counter play behind the left side of the line, which gets good blocks on the play. On the other side, Kyle Hix decides to take out the knees of defensive end Nick Kasa given the problems the Longhorns have had during the game of unblocked players on the backside of plays making tackles. Michael Huey comes through the hole and seemingly has trouble deciding which of the two linebackers to block and barely gets a piece of the playside linebacker as they combine to make the stop, limiting Johnson to a three-yard gain.

2nd and Goal CU 5

Desperately seeking solutions, Davis calls for an empty set with Fozzy Whittacker entering the game at the bottom of the screen with Dan Buckner and James Kirkendoll on the wide side of the field and John Chiles and Jordan Shipley on the short side:

Notice that Colorado is in man-to-man press coverage against all the receivers except for Whittacker, who is played to take away the inside release. The Buffaloes have only one linebacker and one safety in the middle of the field.

The man coverage takes away any quick throws for McCoy and a stunt by the strongside defensive end Marquez Herrod beats the right tackle Hix and eventually results in a sack and a loss of eight yards. It looked like there was some miscommunication between Hix and Huey because Huey left his man to try to slow down Herrod, allowing his original assignment, defensive tackle Curtis Cunningham, to get to McCoy at roughly the same time as Herrod.

3rd and Goal CU 13

The Longhorns stay with the same personnel grouping, but put Whittaker in the backfield and once again use the bunch formation to the bottom of the screen.

Judging by the pass, Kirkendoll was supposed to run an option route, going inside if the defender shades him outside and going outside if the defender shades him inside. Kirkendoll goes inside, while McCoy throws the ball outside, leading to an incompletion.

4th and Goal CU 13

The punt team comes onto the field to attempt the field goal. Notice that the kick is from the left hash, meaning that Lawrence has to angle the kick to the right, making Ahmard Howard's protection on the right side of the line more important than if the ball were in the middle of the field or on the right hash.

Howard has a decision to make. Should he help Alex Okafor with the man coming across his right shoulder or should he block the man coming to the outside? Given the position of ball, Howard needs to block the outside man because the placement of the ball means the kick will be directed into the edge rusher:

Howard makes the wrong decision and the edge rusher blocks the kick, costing the Longhorns three points.

Final Totals

Thirteen plays for 46 yards, 5:09 expired. Five of six passing for 28 yards and two carries for one yard by McCoy. Two catches for 13 yards by Shipley. Two catches for 11 yards by Chiles. One catch for five yards by Dan Buckner. Three carries for one yard by McGee. One carry for three yards by Johnson. Two offsides penalties for 10 yards by Colorado. One miscommunication between Kirkendoll and McCoy. One poor decision in field goal protection by Ahmard Howard.

The Verdict

Once again, the Longhorns move the ball well before stalling close to the goalline. Once again, the drive stalls following a similar pattern -- a run for three yards, a terrible play resulting in a loss, and then McCoy unable to connect with a receiver.

The counter play to Johnson works reasonably well, but the problem is that Hix had to stay home blocking the defensive end because of the problems with backside players making tackles. The point of the counter play is that it uses misdirection to get the defense flowing in the wrong direction because of the counter step. Well, as well documented in these parts, there is no counter step. Hix staying at home left a linebacker unblocked and Huey did a poor job of blocking the other linebacker, giving Johnson little to no chance of picking up any more yards than he did.

On the second play, the right side of the Texas line failed to pick up the stunt by the defensive end, a tactic they will see often this season if it continues to work for opponents. Given the state of the running game, the Longhorns will have to throw the ball upwards of 35 times to beat Oklahoma and correctly this problem will be necessary to sustain drives, because even one sack will almost certainly derail a drive.

The third play illustrates the trust issues that McCoy seems to have with his receivers other than Buckner and Shipley. Mccoy must throw the ball on the option route before the receiver makes the break, so he has to trust that the receiver will make the same read. Kirkendoll did not and the play should have resulted in a touchdown. Throughout the season, McCoy and Kirkendoll have struggled to connect close to the goalline. Until a third receiver steps up and earns the trust of McCoy, the Texas offense will continue to struggle scoring touchdowns. On top of that, Kirkendoll's poor read was representative of a bad game that saw him drop a pass, get called for holding, and generally fail completely in the blocking game. What happened to the step forward he was supposed to take after making that critical catch against Ohio State?

Final Thoughts

The offense is clearly casting about relatively aimlessly trying to find solutions for the problems punching the ball into the end zone. In the last two games, nothing has worked well, not the WildHorn, not Cody Johnson running, not spreading the field. Eventually, settling for field goals instead of scoring touchdowns will prove to be a major issue and the main hope is that Davis finds something that works. The bad news is that the Longhorns are now entering the toughest part of their schedule and don't have any more time to experiment against overmatched teams. They will have to figure it out on fly.

SB Nation 2009 All-Big 12 Preseason Team

irish1611 — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 02:31:43 -0000

In the spirit of media days coming up, the SBNation Big 12 bloggers got together and voted on who we think will make up the 2009 All Conference team. Like in the national media, the Colorado Buffaloes have a lot to prove to get the respect of the blogging world as no Buff was represented on the first team. In fact, five teams did not have a player named to the team as the Big 12 South took control placing 21 of the 27 players on the squad. The Buffs didn't get shut out of the voting, though. OL Ryan Miller received the most votes of any Buff, followed by RB Rodney Stewart. CB Cha'pelle Brown, TE Riar Geer, TE Patrick Devenny and FB Jake Behrens tallied recognition as well. Better than I thought considering that you couldn't vote for players that you blog about (i.e. The Ralphie Report couldn't vote for CU players).

It is hard to find flaws in this list. I do think players like CB Jimmy Smith, OL Nate Solder and OL Ryan Miller have a shot at breaking through at the end of the year. Wins in 2009 will get our Buffs more exposure.

DEFENSE		OFFENSE		SPECIAL TEAMS
CB	Dominique Franks, OU	OL	Russell Okung, OSU	K	Alex Henery, Nebraska
CB	Perrish Cox, OSU	OL	Adam Ulatoski, Texas	KR	Dez Bryant, OSU
DE	Sergio Kindle, Texas	OL	Chris Hall, Texas	P	Derek Epperson, Baylor
DE	Auston English, OU	OL	Trent Williams, OU
DL	Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska	OL	Kurtis Gregory, Missouri
DL	Gerald McCoy, OU	QB	Sam Bradford, OU
LB	Joe Pawelek, Baylor	RB	Kendall Hunter, OSU
LB	Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri	RB	DeMarco Murray, OU
LB	Travis Lewis, OU	TE	Jermaine Gresham, OU
S	Darrell Stuckey, Kansas	WR	Dez Bryant, OSU
S	Jordan Lake, Baylor	WR	Jordan Shipley, Texas
		WR	Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas
		FB	Matt Clapp, OU

TOTAL SELECTIONS BY TEAM
Oklahoma Sooners	9
Oklahoma St. Cowboys	5
Texas Longhorns	4
Baylor Bears	3
Missouri Tigers	2
Kansas Jayhawks	2
Nebraska Cornhuskers	2

2nd Annual SB Nation Big 12 All-Conference Team Ballot

RPT — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:30:08 -0000

Our Colorado cohorts at The Ralphie Report have once again solicited the powers that be in the Big 12 Blogosphere here at SB Nation to determine the SB Nation Preseason All-Big 12 Team. As Rock M Nation's representative in the voting process, here's how my ballot will appear. It must be noted that bloggers are NOT allowed to vote for players on teams they cover. As an aside, I must give a major shoutout to the SB Nation tech team, whose "Autotag" tool probably just imploded upon linking this post.

On to the ballot!

Quarterback (2)

Nominees: Jerrod Johnson (TAMU), Austen Arnaud (ISU), Taylor Potts (TTU), Sam Bradford (OU), Zac Robinson (OSU), Blaine Gabbert, Robert Griffin (BU), Colt McCoy, Todd Reesing (KU), Daniel Thomas (KSU)

The Vote: Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford

Notes: You can go around looking for ways to justify other picks, but it's going to be McCoy and Bradford at the top. I'm just glad we're selecting two quarterbacks so I don't have to decide between them and draw the ire of one of the fan bases. At the same time, you've got to feel for Reesing, Robinson and Griffin, dynamic players who'd be shoo-ins in a lot of other conferences.

Running Back (2)

Nominees: Roy Helu Jr. (NU), Cyrus Gray (TAMU), Christine Michael (TAMU), Chris Brown (OU), DeMarco Murray (OU), Kendall Hunter (OSU), Derrick Washington, Darrell Scott (CU), Rodney Stewart (CU), Jay Finley (BU), Jake Sharp (KU), Cody Johnson (UT), Vondrell McGee (UT), Foswhitt Whittaker (UT)

The Vote: Kendall Hunter, Chris Brown, DeMarco Murray

Notes: I went with the Oklahoma trio here. Kendall Hunter may well be the best back in the conference. Brown and Murray are a formidable 1-2 punch, assuming Murray is capable of staying healthy in 2009. Derrick Washington would have been my pick over one of these two had the blogger/player restrictions not been in place. I fought with including Roy Helu on the ballot. Helu came on hot at the end of 2008 (he averaged almost 10 yards a carry in a 157-yard day at Oklahoma) and could very well prove me wrong. Darrell Scott still has a lot to prove.

Fullback (1)

Nominees: Matt Clapp (OU), Jake Behrens (CU)

The Vote: Matt Clapp

Notes: I see no reason to unseat the reigning All-Big 12 fullback.

Wide Receiver (3)

Nominees: Ryan Tannehill (TAMU), Jeff Fuller (TAMU), Darius Darks (ISU), Detron Lewis (TTU), Edward Britton (TTU), Dez Bryant (OSU), Danario Alexander, Jared Perry, David Gettis (BU), Dezmon Briscoe (KU), Jordan Shipley (UT), Kerry Meier (KU), Brandon Banks (KSU), Jonathan Wilson (KU), Malcolm Williams (UT)

The Vote: Dez Bryant, Dezmon Briscoe, Jordan Shipley

Notes: Bryant has the unenviable task of trying to replace Michael Crabtree as the conference's best receiver, even though some call Bryant "a superior receiver" to Crabtree. Briscoe continues to be undervalued by the conference as a whole, and Shipley -- one of the conference's most consistent producers over the last few seasons -- has seen his stock rise in the national eye since last year's Red River Shootout. Honorable mentions go out to Kerry Meier, Brandon Banks and Detron Lewis, and player to watch mentions go out to Jeff Fuller and Malcolm Williams.

Rest of the ballot after the jump!

Tight End (2)

Nominees: Mike McNeill (NU), Jamie McCoy (TAMU), Jermaine Gresham (OU), Andrew Jones, Riar Geer (CU), Patrick Devenny (CU), Tim Biere (KU)

The Vote: Jermaine Gresham and Mike McNeill

Notes: Gresham is the no-brainer with the first vote. I know we're supposed to scoff at Nebraska right now, but I feel like McNeill is the only Husker that's being underhyped. A tight end like that is a tremendous asset in the process of breaking in a new quarterback.

Offensive Line (5)

Nominees: Jacob Hickman (NU), Mike Smith (NU), Brandon Carter (TTU), Marlon Winn (TTU), Trent Williams (OU), Brady Bond (OSU), Russell Okung (OSU), Kurtis Gregory, Elvis Fisher, Dan Hoch, Tim Barnes, Nate Solder (CU), Ryan Miller (CU), Adam Ulatoski (UT), Chris Hall (UT), Nick Stringer (KSU), JD Walton (Baylor), James Barnard (BU), Charlie Tanner (UT), Jeremiah Hatch (KU), Kyle Hixx (UT)

The Vote: Brandon Carter, Trent Williams, Russell Okung, Adam Ulatoski, Chris Hall

Notes: I'd be lying to you if I said I had hard and fast reasoning for selecting individual lineman. I do hope the other Big 12 bloggers give some love to Gregory and Barnes, who we've extolled here at RMN many times.

Interior D-Line (2)

Nominees: Ndamukong Suh (NU), Eddie Brown (Texas A&M), Colby Whitlock (Texas Tech), DeMarcus Granger (OU), Gerald McCoy (OU), Jaron Baston, Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU), Lamarr Houston (UT)

The Vote: Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy

Notes: Another relatively painless selection. Even a second team of any two of the trio of Granger, Fitzgerald and Houston would be extremely stout.

Defensive End (2)

Nominees: Pierre Allen (NU), Barry Turner (NU), Matt Featherston (TAMU), Jeremy Beal (OU), Auston English (OU), Brian Coulter, Jacquies Smith, Brandon Herald (KSU), Jake Laptad (KU), Sergio Kindle (UT)

The Vote: Sergio Kindle, Auston English

Notes: I know Jeremy Beal is getting most of the pundit love at DE for Oklahoma, but I remain a massive apologist for English when he's healthy. Maybe it's all just fallout from seeing English singlehandedly dominate Mizzou in person in Norman back in 2007. And, oh yeah, Sergio Kindle is a physical freak of nature.

Linebacker (4)

Nominees: Von Miller (TAMU), Brian Duncan (TTU), Marlon Williams (TTU), Keenan Clayton (OU), Travis Lewis (OU), Patrick Lavine (OSU), Sean Weatherspoon, Luke Lambert, Jeff Smart (CU), Shaun Mohler (CU), BJ Beatty (CU), Joe Pawelek (BU), Andre Sexton (OSU), Rod Muckelroy (UT)

The Vote: Joe Pawelek, Andre Sexton, Travis Lewis, Von Miller

Notes: Let's all take a moment to pour one out for Sean Weatherspoon, who is required to be left off my ballot. Pawelek enters what seems like his 37th year of eligibility at Baylor. Sexton and Lewis are relatively safe picks, while I take my one big departure from security and select A&M's Von Miller as my fourth 'backer. Miller is really more of a "project pick" here, as he's got the physical skills to be as good any other linebacker nominated if he's able to carve out his own role in Joe Kines' system. If it all comes together, Miller could turn into the type of player Kines had in Demeco Ryans at Alabama.

Cornerback (2)

Nominees: Leonard Johnson (ISU), Jamar Wall (TTU), Dominique Franks (OU), Perrish Cox (OSU), Carl Gettis, Jimmy Smith (CU), Cha'pelle Brown (CU), Josh Moore (KSU), Justin Thornton (KU), Daymond Patterson (KU), Chykie Brown (UT), Deon Beasley (UT)

The Vote: Dominique Franks, Josh Moore

Notes: A surprisingly solid list of nominees here. Franks was a second team All-Big 12 selection last year, and Moore quietly had a good year in the midst of a forgettable season for K-State. Brown would have been next on my radar, with Johnson, Wall, and Beasley close behind.

Safety (2)

Nominees: Larry Asante (NU), Trent Hunter (TAMU), Jordan Pugh (TAMU), Kenji Jackson, Jordan Lake (BU), Earl Thomas (UT), Blake Gideon (UT), Darrell Stuckey (KU), Phillip Strozier (KU)

The Vote: Jordan Lake, Darrell Stuckey

Notes: I'm probably drawing the wrath of the Burnt Orange Nation community by excluding two very talented young safeties in Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon, but Lake and Stuckey are certainly deserving of the nods here. Lake means to the Baylor defensive backfield what Pawelek means to Baylor's linebacking corps. Stuckey was ALL over the field at Arrowhead last year, and has to be the top safety in the Big 12 North (this despite my almost irrational love of Kenji Jackson).

Kicker (1)

Nominees: Alex Henery (NU), Hunter Lawrence (UT)

The Vote: Alex Henery

Notes: Hard to make the call here, but the cannon attached to Henery's hip gave Nebraska the win that COMPLETELY changed the outlook for the Huskers in 2009.

Punter (1)

Nominees: Mike Brandtner (ISU), Jake Harry, Derek Epperson (BU), Ryan Doerr (KSU), Alonzo Rojas (KU)

The Vote: Derek Epperson

Notes: Epperson is the returning leader in punt average, which is good enough for me. My apologies to Jake Harry.... THE FOURTH.

Kick Returner (1)

Nominees: Cyrus Gray (TAMU), Leonard Johnson (ISU), Perrish Cox (OSU), Dez Bryant (OSU), Jordan Shipley (UT)

The Vote: Perrish Cox

Notes: Cox and Bryant are somewhat interchangeable here, and since Bryant's already feeling the love, I decided to go with Cox. I would have had no qualms with Shipley in this slot either.

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:00:13 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's Colorado Week! Time to check in on a team with more "ifs" on offense than anybody else on the league, but key recruiting success (a.k.a. Darrell Scott and a couple of linemen) and a decent enough back seven on defense that people can't help but pick them as a sleeper for the fourth straight year.

I'm not going to lie. There are two teams in the Big 12 whose continuously-predicted success has baffled me enough over the years that I can't help but be more of a naysayer than I like to be: Nebraska and Colorado. The insecure Mizzou fan in me says that if Mizzou had either Colorado's or Nebraska's roster, they'd be ranked fourth or fifth in the North, but since it's Nebraska and Colorado, they're given the benefit of the doubt. How true is this? Am I being overly unfair? Am I being extremely fair?

So I can get myself off the hook and leave my own biases at the door, let's take a look at what the BTBS numbers have to say about CU in 2009 to see if I'm right on, or if I'm being unfair and insecure. Or both.

2008

Record: 5-7 (2-6)
S&P+: 192.0 (82nd in the country, 10th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 242-351 (-109)
Conference Scoring Margin: 135-257 (-122)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #70 Colorado State, #75 West Virginia, #79 Kansas State, #104 Iowa State, 1-AA Eastern Washington
Losses: #5 Texas, #10 Missouri, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #21 Nebraska, #37 Florida State, #98 Texas A&M

It was an injury-prone, youth-to-the-extreme season for Colorado in 2008, particularly on offense. A 3-0 start was highlighted by a nice win over West Virginia, but the Buffs finished the season losing seven of nine games, scoring over 20 points just twice in Big 12 play and over 35 just once all season. A decent defense was overshadowed by a putrid offense, the worst in the Big 12 by far.

In the end, CU was 0-6 versus teams ranked above 70th in the S&P+ rankings (though West Virginia was by far the biggest outlier in the rankings--they weren't great, but 75th is shockingly low...the S&P+ rankings really didn't like their defense) and 4-1 versus those ranked below.

In 2007, a shocking win over Oklahoma overshadowed an average season that saw them finish with a #78 ranking and 6-7 record. So while they didn't regress much overall in 2008, they certainly didn't improve. And here's the scary part: Colorado went 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year. In other words, they were very lucky to finish 5-7. A closer-to-.500 record in those games would have led to a 3-9 or 4-8 record overall. As Phil Steele would mention, a +3 net win total in close games is usually a sign that a fall is coming the next year (and yet he picked Colorado above KU and MU anyway...strange).

But even with a little too much success in close games, Colorado was still unlucky when it came to injuries, and they still were playing a ton of young players. So surely they will improve in 2009, right? Right? And if so, how much?

Should this man be smiling?

Coaching

Head Coach: ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins
Record at Colorado: 13-24 (conference: 8-16)
Pythagorean Record: 14.47 wins (-0.5/year)

Who knew that when Dan Hawkins was racking up a 53-11 record in five seasons at Boise State, he was actually holding Boise back (BSU's improved to 35-4 in the last three seasons)? Kidding. Hawkins brought to Boulder an outstanding track record, and while things haven't worked out for him so far--three straight losing seasons for CU for the first time since 1982-84--with the amount of youth on this team, he's still got quite a few people in his corner. And he's insisting on accountability and taking responsibility for CU's struggles, which is refreshing.

It really has been pretty bad in Boulder, though. Not only has CU gone only 13-24 in The Hawk's time in Boulder (11-14 if you're giving him a free pass on his 2006 debut), but they've actually underachieved a bit in terms of Pythagorean projections. And that's not even half the story. As we've learned by now, blowouts skew the projections, and, well, Mizzou has outscored the Buffs by a cool 141-23 in the last three years. So you would think that the Missouri results alone would give them a low Pythagorean projection, causing them to overachieve in overall wins, right? Wrong--despite the Mizzou skew, Colorado has still managed to underachieve.

I can't tell you what kind of hot seat awaits Hawkins if he doesn't at least get back to a bowl this year--I think the 2007 win over OU bought him some extra goodwill that he hasn't quite used up yet--but I can tell you that I have been completely unimpressed. We're not talking about a "The Beef / Ron Prince" level of unimpressed, but CU has not shown any modicum of improvement in three years, and while I'm willing to give him this fourth season to see if Year #3 really was shot down by injuries, I just don't have a lot of confidence in the CU program while Hawkins is at the helm. If I'm being unfair, CU will probably show it this year.

Alright...to the rankings!

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 82.0 (#114)
Success Rate+: 85.0 (#115)
PPP+: 78.9 (#112)

Standard Downs S&P+: 84.0 (#110)
Passing Downs S&P+: 79.9 (#114)

Red Zone S&P+: 97.9 (#71)

Q1 S&P+: 85.0 (#98)
Q2 S&P+: 75.2 (#118)
Q3 S&P+: 77.0 (#117)
Q4 S&P+: 92.9 (#89)

1st Down S&P+: 81.1 (#113)
2nd Down S&P+: 80.5 (#116)
3rd Down S&P+: 76.3 (#116)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 85.9 (#102)
Rushing SR+: 91.7 (#97)
Rushing PPP+: 78.9 (#105)

Standard Downs: 84.2 (#108)
Passing Downs: 94.0 (#83)

Red Zone: 99.7 (#74)

Line Yards+: 91.4 (#97)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 78.9 (#111)
Passing SR+: 78.8 (#117)
Passing PPP+: 79.6 (#106)

Standard Downs: 84.3 (#104)
Passing Downs: 76.8 (#112)

Red Zone: 102.6 (#59)

Adj. Sack Rate: 6.8% (#82)

Here's the question that lingers over all of these numbers: how much can a team improve in one offseason? Because while the odds are decent that CU's offense will indeed improve this year, to say they have a long way to go is an insult to long distances. They were sooooo bad last year. My god. Terrible rushing, terrible passing. Terrible on Standard Downs, terrible on Passing Downs. Terrible in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4. Terrible on 1st downs, 2nd downs, and 3rd downs. The bright side: they were only below-average in the red zone! Seriously, when your best ranking in the above table is 59th (Red Zone Passing), you know things didn't go how you hoped.

With more experience at RB and OL, hopefully better QB play, and fewer overall injuries, Colorado should improve in 2009. How much?

Two ways to look at that: first, if they were to improve back to 2007 levels, that would only get them to 73rd in S&P+. But what if they improve a lot?

Here are the top five most improved offenses from 2007 to 2008 and how much they improved their Close-Game S&P+:

Iowa (+34.0%)
Notre Dame (+30.7%)
Rice (+29.8%)
UAB (+26.8%)
Pittsburgh (+26.6%)

If Colorado were to improve by 34% in 2009, that would give them an S&P+ of 109.9, which would have garnered a ranking of 40th in 2008 and 38th in 2007. So if they improve as much as any offense in the country--really, the best-case scenario--that might be enough to get them into the Top 40 offensively. It's within the realm of possibility, but one does not find a lot of success in life betting on the best-case scenario. Trust me, I've tried.

Quarterback

Ahh, Cody Hawkins. Not sure there has been a more maligned multi-year starter in the country since Reggie Ball was taking snaps for Georgia Tech.

2008 Unit Ranking: #113 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Cody ~~Nolte~~ Hawkins (5'11, 190, Jr.)
~~Taylor~~ Tyler Hansen (6'1, 200, So.)
Clark Evans? (6'5, 230, Fr.)

Here's your chicken v. egg debate. Colorado's QBs were just about the worst among all BCS conference teams (Washington State's QB unit was 118th)--was that because they really were bad, or because everybody around them was either a) injured, b) a freshman, and/or c) not very good? If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Running Backs

Time to prove why you were a five-star recruit, Darrell.

2008 Unit Ranking: #107 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected TB Depth Chart
Darrell Scott (6'1, 200, So.)
Rodney Stewart (5'7, 170, So.)
Brian Lockridge (5'7, 175, So.)
Demetrius Sumler (5'10, 215, Jr.)

Projected FB Depth Chart
Jake Behrens (6'0, 240, Sr.)
Trace Adams (6'0, 210, Sr.)

Both at RMN and Football Outsiders, I've introduced a new measure for evaluating running backs: POE (Points Over Expected). It is exactly what it suggests--a look at a running back's output compared to what would be expected versus the defenses he faced. A positive POE means he produced more than the average running back would have produced. Negative = less than average.

Here are the POE ratings for the three CU running backs who got more than 50 carries in 2008:

Demetrius Sumler (-0.5 POE, 97.8 PPP+, #138 of 269 eligible RBs)
Darrell Scott (-8.1 POE, 73.3 PPP+, #221)
Rodney Stewart (-13.6 POE, 68.1 PPP+, #256)

Ouch.

We all know about Darrell Scott's recruiting profile--he was Rivals.com's #1 running back recruit in the country in 2008--but after Scott's first year in Boulder, we have absolutely no idea what he's capable of. During an injury-prone freshman season, he showed none of the explosiveness or elusiveness that we would expect out of a national Top 10 recruit, but clearly it's not too late. As a whole, you'd like your running back built more like Derrick Washington than Jeremy Maclin, but if Scott can stay healthy, he may (may) be able to live up to the hype. He had 154 yards on 34 carries (4.5 per carry) in spring scrimmages, which is far from amazing, but he's clearly still young.

Beyond Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Meanwhile, since Demetrius Sumler is behind both Scott and Stewart on the depth chart, it appears that he's less productive than both. Wrong. Sumler was deceptively successful in 2008 (well, more successful than Scott/Stewart--overall he was extremely average). He looked very good in the spring, but he appears to be buried on the depth chart behind three sophomores (Scott, Stewart, Brian Lockridge).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Simas is expected to produce immediately. If he doesn't, who will?

2008 Unit Ranking: #110 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Markques Simas (6'2, 200, So.)
Scotty McKnight (5'11, 185, Jr.)
Dustin Ebner (6'1, 175, RSFr.)
Jason Espinoza (5'8, 175, So.)
Andre Simmons (6'3, 210, Jr.)
Cameron Ham (6'1, 200, Jr.)
Ryan Maxwell (5'9, 180, So.)
Kevin Moyd (5'7, 200, Sr.)
Kyle Cefalo (5'10, 165, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Riar Geer (6'4, 250, Sr.)
Ryan Deehan (6'5, 240, So.)
Patrick Devenny (6'3, 240, Sr.)

So Colorado had the 11th worst receiving corps in the nation in 2009, 3rd worst among BCS conference teams (Michigan was 112th, Washington State 118th). Then, after spring ball, they unexpectedly lost their only proven explosive threat*, Josh Smith, to transfer. Well, they might have lost him to transfer--they're allowing him to only accept a scholarship to USC or UCLA, which is just petty, but if neither of those schools offer him a scholarship (sounds like UCLA is looking like a pretty viable option), then I don't know what happens. Does he stay? If he stays, does he play?

* He was far from amazing, but he was Colorado's Jeremy Maclin.

Regardless, a bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.

Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

On the bright side, Colorado does have some decent experience at tight end. Riar Geer (61 career catches, 7 TDs), Patrick Devenny (15 career catches, 3 TDs), and Ryan Deehan (5 catches, 1 TD) have proven to be decent red zone receivers, but none are dangerous enough to garner special attention from a defense. Leave them open, and they'll catch some passes, but they're not going to kill you. Still, though, it's nice having experience at tight end, if for no other reason than you have some help on third downs and in the red zone.

And somehow Kyle Cefalo is of no relation to Jimmy Cefalo. What a disappointment that is.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #102 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Ryan Miller (6'8, 310, So.)
G Blake Behrens (6'3, 290, So.)
T Nate Solder (6'9, 300, Jr.)
T Bryce Givens (6'6, 275, RSFr.)
C Mike Iltis (6'3, 275, So.)
T Matthew Bahr (6'4, 285, So.)
G Devin Head (6'4, 290, Sr.)
C Keenan Stevens (6'2, 285, Jr.)
T Ryan Dannewitz (6'6, 290, RSFr.)
G Shawn Daniels (6'3, 280, So.)

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Summary

A five-star starter at RB, a four-star starter at WR, and a five-star (with at least one four-star) on the offensive line. From a recruiting perspective, there's some top-end talent here. But almost none of the top-end players have proven themselves yet, and until they do, we don't know that they will, right? My best guess for the Colorado offense in 2009 is that it will rebound to around the rankings it found in 2007...sort of. In 2007, they were 95th rushing and 43rd passing--I can see the opposite happening this year, where Colorado does begin to establish a relatively solid running game, but the passing game still holds them back considerably. Seriously, beyond McKnight, the entire WR unit has one career catch. It's hard to ignore that and just assume that things will click there, even with a decent running game.

Whatever Colorado manages to do in 2009, it will likely be because of their linebackers and secondary, and maybe their running game. There are still far too many question marks on the offense to expect much, but if they can stay healthy and rack up the experience, then they might be in pretty decent shape for 2010.

The Ralphie Report Mailbag: Markques Simas, 2010 & 2011 and the Corn

irish1611 — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 13:00:14 -0000

Yesterday we had a few people ask some good questions, something I love and I encourage all of you to do. If you have a thought that we haven't covered in the offseason so far that needs to be addressed, please shoot us an email at theralphiereport@gmail.com. Nothing makes us happier than to write about things that are of interest to you and this is the purest way to do that. So PLEASE email us! We have the "top 10 questions coming into fall" this week as well so their will be good discussion coming your way. On to the questions from you, our loyal readers:

Q: Hi, I was wondering what you're expecting statistically out of WR Markques Simas this year. Do you think he'll be Colorado's #1 wide receiver and a 1,000 10 TD type of guy? There aren't many wide receivers at CU and someone has to catch the ball, right?

Thank you for your thoughts.

A: I think he will be Colorado's #1 receiver and has the potential of being a 1,000 yard guy but he might not have the supporting cast to achieve those sorts of numbers. I worry about the lack of wide receivers around him as well as the quarterback spot. This should be a running team first and a passing team second. Also, in Dan Hawkins three years at Colorado, no receiver has gone over 555 yards and 5 touchdowns. Those are some sobering stats and while many players are returning on the offensive side of the ball, doubling those numbers in a subsequent year would be an amazing feat.

Simas also has some things to prove before we should anoint him however. We hear good things but have never seen him on the football field when it counts. Does he have the desire to be great? Does he have the explosiveness to be a great playmaker? Those are a few questions that he has yet to answer due to his inexperience.

I am thinking Scotty McKnight will get his usual 550 yards, 4 - 6 TD's. Markques Simas, I am looking for him to end up hopefully between 600 and 700 yards, I would consider that a success in his first collegiate season. Andre Simmons has a chance to put up these types of numbers but I worry about the learning curve that he will face if he qualifies. He will have roughly a little over a month to completely acclimate himself to college life in Boulder and the playbook.

To go a little further into the passing game, I am excited to how new offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau utilizes the athletic ability in OT Nate Solder and OT Bryce Givens in the screen game to get downfield and make blocks. I think Darrell Scott's pass catching ability is under rated and will be a great addition to the offense this season. Throw in an athletic back in Brian Lockridge who poses matchup problems as well. I think you will see an increase in yards receiving there as well as tight end. I expect big years from Patrick Devenny and Ryan Deehan, that is if the offense comes full circle and Kiesau can get the wheels going in the right direction. Colorado has three great tight ends and they should be able to really get good production out of them if the running game is what we all think it will be.

read more after the jump...

Q: Obviously this is a big year for Dan Hawkins. Where do you see the program in a year or two? When he was
first hired, I thought Colorado would take a step up from the Barnett era and become the type of program Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have become.

A: I could write a five pages on this one talking about the disadvantages, advantages, recruiting, the scandal, coaching contracts, etc. that would impact results on the field. In my opinion and in a short and concise manner not fully taking into account all of the external impacts, the program can go three ways, I will put percentages on it for what I think happens:

15% - the Buffs join the likes of Oklahoma St. Cowboys and Texas Tech Red Raiders of the last two years and emerge as a top 10 to 20 team. North title contender in 2010 and 2011. 9 to 10+ win team. This would be nice. I have a hard time justifying this sort of team right now but their is always a possibility in 2010 and 2011.

70% - the Buffs show improvement but they are usually second in the North (still not bad at all). Perpetual 6 - 8 win team, maybe 9 wins in 2010 and 2011. I put a higher percentage here because I am a huge believer in three things in college football for success, or football in general for that matter: an strong quarterback, a pass rush (especially in the Big 12) and play makers. Offensive lines are certainly important and so is team speed but when I look at a team, getting to the quarterback and solid quarterback play is crucial. Nick Kasa, Forrest West, Conrad Obi, Edward Nuckols, Curtis Cunningham, etc. might be the answers on the defensive side of the ball but I am still waiting to see if we fill the void of those three spots. If the Buffs do, they can be a team perennially competing for the North. My feeling is that one or two of these voids will be filled but when you look at the schedule the next two years, I get a sick feeling to my stomach. In 2010 the Buffs have Georgia, Hawaii, Colorado State and @Cal in the non conference and they play Oklahoma, Baylor and Texas Tech from the South. Baylor is on the rise and QB Robert Griffin is going to continue to improve. Then you throw in Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri (who will be improved in 2010) all on the road. That is a bear and will probably be one of the top 5 hardest schedules in the nation next year. In 2011, the schedule gets a little easier but still difficult @Hawaii, Cal and Fresno State for the non-conference.

That makes this year huge when you look at what could possibly happen if the Buffs don't get it going and moving in the right direction. Colorado needs momentum, a few things to go there way because it won't get any easier next season. Throw in a 5 or 6 win season this year, I am scared to think about what happens in the next two seasons. Perception is big in the eyes of donors, fans, current players, current coaches, future recruits and usually year four is when you need to see growth on the field, not just off the field. Wins, wins, wins is the name of the game in 2009. Progress in the offense, opportunistic on defense, energy in Folsom...they need to come to fruition. It will be hard to convince me that another year of experience in 2010 will offset the increase in difficulty the schedule.

Its a big year.

The other 15%...let's not talk about that one.

Q: Thanks for the updates, it really keep us true Buff fans going in the summer. I did read Corn Nation's thoughts on rivalries. It was a slam fest on the Buffaloes of course. But there were somethings that were interesting on what was said. They said that the Husker fans don't tailgate as much at the home games, well I have no clue what they were talking about, I have several Husker friends, who love to tailgate, they know how to tailgate for sure, so I didn't get that. Then it was said Colorado fans feel they are better than NU. Well with the tradition NU is better, but Colorado has a good tradition. I do feel CU has more talent than NU right now. With a real good season, the talent will only get better for CU. Total respect for NU. I think its a awesome rivalry.

A: Yeah, we were going to do one of those rivals posts but we are really busy right now...which is too bad because it is a fun idea. Good thing is we will get our shots in on Nebraska soon enough.

When I read their post, I laugh as they supposedly aren't our rivals but they are awfully concerned about the Buffs and what we do. They call the Buffs elitist but in all reality, they think they are too good for any rivalry especially the Buffs...who is elitist now?

Offensive Guard, Devin Head, the Latest Player Off the Team

irish1611 — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 04:07:31 -0000

OG Devin Head will not be on the team in 2009.

View full size photo »

The University of Colorado today announced scheduling news, coaching changes and personnel moves that cleared many rumors and discussions up; sort of. The main news centered around the three scholarship players leaving the program in Sr. G Devin Head, Jr. WR Josh Smith and RFr TE Ryan Wallace. The departure of Josh Smith and Ryan Wallace was confirmed, two days after the Saturday night release that caused a shock through the Buff faithful. Supposedly Smith is only leaving to pursue his music interests and Ryan Wallace is leaving to be closer to home in Kentucky. Read Saturday's post for thoughts on all of this.

The new player departing the team is senior guard Devin Head due to being academically ineligible. Head participated in 663 plays in 11 total games last season and started 17 games over his career. Head was suspended for the Eastern Washington game in '08 for an off the field incident. He would have been in a battle with at least five players for the remaining left guard spot in 2009 judging by the results of spring ball. Head was the only returning senior on the offensive line and was one of the few remaining Gary Barnett recruits from 2005.

Devin Head and Josh Smith are both good players, both had starting roles on this team but in regards to Head, he is part of an offensive line unit that is deep. What hurts most about Head is he was a senior, had experience and may have been a solidifying guy in the locker room. With the departure of Head, their are now only three seniors who will probably play significant roles in the 2009 offense: TE Patrick DeVenny, TE Riar Geer and FB Jake Behrens.

As for Smith, different story. He is a playmaker and is part of a unit that is thin. Regardless of his wide receiver production in years past, he was one of the strongest playmakers on the team and figured to play a key role if the Buffs were going to make the jump in 2009. Not saying the Buffs won’t win without Smith but his maturation and growth would have helped immensely this upcoming year all things considered.

One thing that should not be forgotten is how Head's departure will affect the Buffs APR academic progress. Since he left ineligible, that will have a negative impact on the NCAA sanctioned score. Coupled with the release of LB Lynn Katoa (also leaving ineligible), it seems the Buffs will lose some scholarships next year. We have talked about this a lot on this site but if this is the case and sanctions are on the horizon, hopefully the Buffs are proactive and self-impose penalties this year since the team is 7 scholarship players short of 85 by my count. I count 36 scholarship players on offense, 37 on defense including incoming freshmen and 5 special teamers. I will publish my list tomorrow.

The departure of FB Matt Burgner (walkon) also means the Buffs will have not have a fullback on the roster in 2010, causing concern if the Buffs use a two back set for the foreseeable future. Alex Wood of Steamboat Springs, a 2009 walkon, might be a good option for this position but he is currently listed as a tight end, another position that the Buffs will be extremely thin at after the 2009 season. So. Ryan Deehan and true freshman DeVaughn Thornton will be the only two scholarship players on the roster in 2010 that are currently known about.

Hopefully this is the end of the line for personnel moves off the current roster.

Onto the coaching moves. Dan Hawkins announced he would be coaching the wide receivers, an extremely important task considering the current situation. Hawkins will be in charge of getting Andre Simmons, Terdema Ussery and Jarrod Darden, all newcomers, ready to play immediately when they first step on the Colorado campus. He will also have the task of motivating Markques Simas to be a All Big 12 player for the Buffs in 2009. He also announced that Ashley Ambrose will be taking over the wide receiver coaching responsibilities in 2010, something that was important to state for recruiting purposes. Ambrose will be learning on the job this year as he just recently joined the Colorado staff last year. Dan Hawkins also brought on his mentor, 68 year old Bob Foster, to coach the outside linebackers. Research will have to be done on Foster as I know little about him. Foster will only stay on staff for a year. It's always interesting in Buff land. Not every day do you hear the head coach will coach the wide receivers and he then hires a 68 year old mentor for one year.

As we wrote about earlier today, the first three games of the 2009 were scheduled. The Buffs will open up against Colorado State in Boulder ~~Saturday~~ Sunday, Sept 6th 5:00pm on FSN. Just five days later the Buffs will travel to Toledo, Ohio to play in a Friday night game at 7:00 pm on ESPN, leaving the Buffs very little time to recover from their first game and prepare for Toledo (and travel to Toledo, a MAC school. Bad scheduling all around here). Colorado will then host Wyoming Saturday, Sept 19 1:30 pm. It does not look to be televised.

Colorado Prep, TE DaVaughn Thornton, Commits to Buffs

irish1611 — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 23:21:05 -0000

Well, no shocker here. According to scout.com, DaVaughn Thornton (Denver East High School) has committed to the Buffs following his weekend visit in Boulder. That is the 12th commit Colorado has received in the 2009 cycle. Thornton brings good athleticism to the position and some much needed depth as TE Riar Geer and TE Patrick Devenney are both seniors this year. Once again, the Buffs are able to sign another in-state prospect, the fourth of 2009. Thornton has a bunch of upside with good size and basketball player like athleticism. He will need to dedicate himself to the weight room and learn all the blocking & route running techniques that make you an elite prospect at the next level. It should be interesting to see how he develops. The sky is the limit.

Hopefully this is just the start of things to come today. I would expect to hear this news about K Zach Grossnickle shortly.

Here is a breakdown of TE DaVaughn Thornton that we did earlier this week.

DaVaughn Thornton's vitals:

Position: TE
Scout Profile
Rivals Profile
ESPN Profile
Ht: 6'5"
Wt: 217 lbs
High School: Denver East (CO) Denver

Congrats to the staff and Thornton...Go Buffs!