SB Nation - Marcus Burton

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

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Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

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Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

A Statistical Look - Colorado Buffaloes vs. Texas Longhorns

irish1611 — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 16:07:34 -0000


	National	Conf	Actual	Category	Actual	Conf	National
Advantage	Rank	Rank	Actual	Category	Actual	Rank	Rank
Texas	109	11	93.75	Rushing Offense	207.3	4	21
Texas	109	12	103.2	Passing Efficiency	149.6	7	28
Texas	27	6	261.3	Passing Offense	314	3	9
Texas	77	12	355	Total Offense	521.3	2	4
Texas	71	10	25.75	Scoring Offense	49.5	1	1
Texas	91	12	2.5	Sacks Allowed	1	4	17
Colorado	54	6	207.3	Pass Defense	212.3	7	65
Texas	111	12	201.5	Rushing Defense	47.25	1	2
Texas	106	12	148.1	Pass Efficiency Defense	97.96	3	18
Texas	102	12	408.8	Total Defense	259.5	2	11
Texas	86	12	28	Scoring Defense	15.25	4	19
Texas	T-30	6	2.5	Sacks	3	4	11
Texas	60	10	5.75	Tackles For Loss	8	2	8
Texas	T-78	9	-0.25	Turnover Margin	0.75	5	T-36
Colorado	70	9	35.67	Net Punting	35.07	10	78
Texas	106	12	3.82	Punt Returns	13.92	2	22
Texas	30	5	25.05	Kickoff Returns	37.25	1	2

Not much to say here. The 102nd ranked defense (against West Virginia, Colorado State, Toledo and Wyoming) will play the top scoring offense in the country today. If the Buffs have any chance, that 102nd ranked defense will have to play more like they did in two consecutive drives in the third quarter against West Virginia, probably there two best defensive outputs of the year. Game was on the line still, the Buffs defense came out and got positive plays on first down, stopped the run and was able to apply pressure on Jarrett Brown in passing situations. It won't be as easy today but once again, putting Texas into second and long situations to start drives and then getting solid corner back play on passing situations with a healthy dose of Marcus Burton and B.J. Beatty from the linebacker position is crucial. Sounding like a broken record, Ron Colllins' unit needs to limit the big play. The numbers are astonishing: According to Dave Plati of the Colorado SID, CU has allowed 1,635 yards in its first four games, on 260 plays (6.3 per); that includes 23 plays of 20 yards or more (13 pass/10 rush), 11 of those for 40 or more. Those 23 plays have accounted for a whopping 962 yards; when adding in 18 other plays of 10 yards or more, the count rises to 1,205 yards. It translates to 16 percent of the opponent plays (41 of 260) having accounted for 74 percent of the yards.

The Buffs certainly need more defensive possessions like these two:

West Virginia at 10:02		COLO	WVU
1st and 10 at WVU 23	Tavon Austin rush for 4 yards to the WVirg 27.	17	21
2nd and 6 at WVU 27	Noel Devine rush for 2 yards to the WVirg 29.
3rd and 4 at WVU 29	Brown sacked by Chap Brown and Burton for a loss of 16
4th and 20 at WVU 13	Scott Kozlowski punt for 55 yards
DRIVE TOTALS: WVirg drive: 3 plays -10 yards, 02:07 WVirg PUNT

West Virginia at 4:31		COLO	WVU
1st and 10 at WVU 47	Jarrett Brown pass incomplete to Tavon Austin.	17	21
2nd and 10 at WVU 47	Jarrett Brown sacked by Marcus Burton for a loss of 12
3rd and 22 at WVU 35	Jarrett Brown sacked by Chapelle Brown for a loss of 16
4th and 38 at WVU 19	Scott Kozlowski punt for 47 yards
DRIVE TOTALS: WVirg drive: 3 plays -28 yards, 01:50 WVirg PUNT

Offensive look for the Buffs after the jump...

I have looked for trends for this Colorado offense and it is hard to tie any sequences together that lead to success. But back to the big play talk we had for the defense, the offense has had two plays over forty yards and those plays belong to WR Andre Simmons and WR Anthony Wright. Two players who Buff fans are dying to see on the field more. Coach Eric Kiesau indicated this week that Anthony Wright is progressing and should hopefully receive more opportunities with the undertone that Andre Simmons has not really done enough in practice to suggest that he is ready to go at a high level. If they do decide to give Anthony Wright some time at receiver today and Markques Simas can get some featured time away from Scotty McKniight, the Buffs may be starting to get that receiver balance Buff fans have been callling for since the Colorado State game.

A big problem with this offense, in my opinion, is the ability to stretch the opposition's defense. Right now you have a defense that is not playing in a back peddle. They are sitting in a 15 yard box and only moving forward not backword. I don't care who you are, when your team lacks any threat to go beyond the 15 yard level, your offense will be ranked dead last in the Big 12. Throw a fast and aggressive Texas' defense at the Buffs' offense and that could be big trouble if the Buffs don't find a way to get those safeties and cornerbacks in a back peddle. Texas is going to do what every team in the Big 12 is going to do to the Buffs this year: make Cody Hawkins beat them. Mack Brown has made it clear in his press conferences this week that they are heavily focused on the Colorado running game. The only way Colorado's offense has success today is if they come out and can rattle of a few big plays and loosen the defense. A five yard offensive game plan early will lead to a big Texas rout.

The Buffs have nothing to lose. Everyone expects the score to be around 55 to 14. Take your shots early and try to make the Texas defense adjust and allow your offense to operate in some space.

Gameday Buff Bites - Colorado Buffaloes vs. Texas Longhorns

irish1611 — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 13:44:18 -0000

Woelk: Big 12 need not be waste for Buffaloes - Buffzone
I love Neill Woelk's spirit and optimism. The nine days off since the Buffs' last game against West Virginia has given Woelk the opportunity to rationalize that the Buffs' conference season hasn't even started and there is time to be successful. It is true, conference play hasn't started yet but one thing I don't necessarily agree with, and I may catch some flack for it, I am not in the general consensus of CU fans that a respectable showing would be satisfying and that a respectable showing would be defined as anything north of the 33 point spread. I can't rationalize moral victories at this point, maybe after year one or two, not year four...that is a hard notion for me to submit to. There are only two options in my head for the rest of the year's results and one of them is win. The other one I will keep a secret because it is depressing.

Start over.
....
But despite their disappointing 1-3 start, despite the tumult that swirls around the program, Dan Hawkins` Buffs still have plenty to play for in their final eight games. The Buffs are 0-0 in the Big 12. That means the chance to make a dent in the Big 12 North standings is within their grasp. It means a chance to improve, the chance to establish something resembling consistency and continuity remains. And it means they need to begin heading that direction in a hurry. Nobody outside of the Buffs` locker room is expecting Colorado to win tonight (did we mention the 33-point spread)? The general consensus among CU fans is that a respectable showing -- i.e., anything north of the point spread -- would be a start.

Woelk calls for the Buffs to go to a short passing game featuring playmakers at wide receiver. He singles out Andre Simmons, Markques Simas and Anthony Wright as those playmakers that need to be able to work with the ball in their hands.

Amen, brother.

Young CU Buffaloes looking for fast start against No. 2 Longhorns - The Denver Post
Now here is a quote I can get behind. The best thing for Buff fans today is to see a team play with an attitude and get after the Longhorns physically.

"It's important for us to get out and play physical with Texas, right from the beginning," Buffs LB Marcus Burton said. "It sets a tone for ourselves, and for them. We have to come out of the gates fast."

and our favorite reoccurring quote:

"Darrell had a great week of practice," Hagan said. "I'm expecting big things from both Speedy and Darrell. We should be able to roll a little bit."

Buffs looking to begin again - The Longmont Times-Call
This about sums it up...as the Buffs look to begin again:

Texas leads the Big 12 in scoring; CU is last in scoring defense. Texas has gained the second-most yards; CU has given up the league’s second-highest total. The Buffs have amassed the league’s fewest yards; Texas’ defense allows the second fewest. Texas has a Heisman contender at quarterback; the Buffs have Hawkins. CU is a 321/2-point underdog.

Buffs face long odds vs. Longhorns - Buffzone

If the Buffs can surprise the nation by keeping things close and playing a competitive game from beginning to end, it could be used as evidence that Hawkins is on the right track, despite unexpected setbacks earlier this season against the likes of Colorado State and Toledo. If the Hawkins skeptics and Las Vegas wagering gurus are proved correct, it will undoubtedly fuel the Fire Dan Hawkins movement that began to rumble a month ago. "I`ve never been real big believer, long term, in extrinsic motivation," Hawkins said of being such a big underdog. "I think every sports psychologist would tell you that`s not the road to go down. Ultimately at the end of the day, it`s about your own self-efficacy and being able to get your 'A` game on regardless of who you play and where you play or what the situation is. Whether you`re favored or not favored, you better have a healthy respect for the other team and yourself and understand the variables that go into it. I just think that`s what all great coaches and all great players and all great teams aspire to do."

The Daily Texan - Colorado running game will test defense

It is hard for me to keep a straight face when Mack Brown says that the Colorado running game will give the Longhorns a good test today. Maybe they will through the first 10 minutes of the game but then Air Hawkins.

"[They] are very much like us. Each back does something a little better than the others," said Texas head coach Mack Brown. "The big question mark on our defense …is, can we stop the run? We haven’t had the test yet. The way people beat you is they keep the ball. We cannot let Colorado come in and run the ball."

While the Buffaloes’ offensive numbers don’t look impressive, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry and ranking second to last in rushing in the Big 12, Texas is more concerned with proving its run-stuffing ability before facing more-daunting competition the rest of October.

Colorado program has a long way to go
Yes we know:

The Colorado athletic department has operated in the black the last three years even though basketball produces little and the department's annual budget of $46.5 million ranks no higher than 10th in the Big 12. Financially, Colorado has long been fighting those "enterprises that gobble up resources," as Bohn calls them. Throw in the added challenges of trying economic times, athletic facilities in dire need of upgrade like the 30-year-old Coors Events Center that the school's basketball and volleyball teams share, an $8 million loan the athletic department is repaying the university over 10 years and an angry alumni base, and Bohn is facing the Olympics of obstacles.

The Daily Texan - Top recruits who didn't pick Texas have been unlucky

Longhorns know this is one they're supposed to win | Texas College Main List | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

"This is an older team, so we can tell them the truth," Mack Brown said. "We can be direct with them."

Texas-Colorado position matchups

Colorado's run offense vs. Texas' run defense The Buffaloes would like to get their running game going, behind Rodney Stewart. He's averaging 90 yards a game and is coming off a 105-yard performance. The Longhorns are second-best in the country defending the run, allowing only 47.25 yards per game. Edge: Texas

Game Day Notes - CuBuffs.com

The Colorado Buffaloes (1-3, 0-0 Big 12) open conference play this Saturday, October 10, traveling to Austin to face the No. 2 Texas Longhorns (4-0, 0-0 Big 12) in a 5:15 p.m. MDT kickoff at Memorial Stadium (100,119) … The game will be televised nationally on ESPN, with Brad Nessler (play-by-play), Todd Blackledge (analysis) and Erin Andrews (sideline reporter) to call the action.

Game Day Notes - Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns have had great success following regular-season bye weeks in recent years. Since Mack Brown took over the program in 1998, the Horns have posted a 14-4 (.778) record following regular-season bye weeks. The only defeats came against Texas A&M (38-30, 2007; 12-7, 2006; 20-16, 1999) and versus Arkansas in 2003 (38-28). If you include bowl games, in which Brown is 8-3 at Texas, the Horns have posted a 22-7 (.758) mark in the last 11 years when they’ve had at least one extra week to prepare.

Brooks: Buffs Know McCoy's The Real Deal - CUBuffs.com

Good luck. McCoy is averaging 286.2 yards passing per game (fourth in the Big 12) and 301.5 yards in total offense (fifth). He's accounted for 10 touchdowns (nine passing, one rushing) in an offense that leads the nation in scoring (49.5 points a game) and is second in total yardage (545.2 a game).

Buffs-Longhorns matchups - Buffzone

CU’s Smart a true player - The Longmont Times-Call

Thursday Buff Bites: I Might Be Drunk But You're Still Ugly

irish1611 — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 00:00:24 -0000

Mailbag: The state of CU football And Mike Shannahan - The Denver Post - Woody Paige
Woody Paige of the Denver Post brings up Mike Shannahan for the next coach of the Buffs and also has a nice realistic response to a fan saying he still believes in Dan Hawkins because he has a "clean" program which is a big false PR ploy that Bohn and Co. have put out when a) it has been four years since Barnett and b) the program's cleanliness is better but let's not act like the Buffs are angels.

After watching the Toledo game, I am a bigger fan of Dan and Cody Hawkins than ever. That is as good as CU can be right now. Class and courage at its best!! Yes, I wanted both of them gone after CSU and in the first half of the Toledo game. The reality is this team is not good, but Coach Hawkins is the right guy. When you have the cleanest team in America, it will take a long time to turn around from ashes. I am extremely impressed how both Hawkins have handled first two games. ("Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" - Winston Churchill) -- Duke, Tampa, Fla.

Duke: Winston Churchill was drinking one night (which wasn't that unusual), and a woman said: "Sir, you are drunk." He replied: "Yes, I am, madam, but tomorrow morning I will be sober, and you still will be ugly." Colorado is a clean, swell, courageous program, but it's still ugly. I love Cody Hawkins as a player, and I like Dan Hawkins, even though he had become snippy this year even before the first game. But both might just be out of their realm. Cody, honestly, should have been a Division 1-A (or whatever that group is now called) player, and he will be a great coach pretty soon, but he's not a Big 12 Conference quarterback. Despite his desire, his knowledge of the game, his effort, he was at the bottom of the league statistically last year and again this year. If you're Dan Hawkins, don't tell your team it's going to win 10 games and then have to eat that statement. If you're Dan Hawkins, and you were the coach at Boise State, and your team, under your assistants, utilized some great trick gimmick unique plays, why not try some of them at CU? They seem to work at Boise State. Why recruit the best running back in the country, supposedly, and then not play him? Why allow your only great receiver leave? At least, try everything (legal) to keep him. Why can't you beat Toledo? Where are the skilled players at wide receiver? The idea this year was to run. The secondary was touted as being good. Dan Hawkins says he doesn't make the decision about the starting quarterback. If you're the offensive coordinator, who are you going to choose? I don't think special quarterbacks were going to come here if they knew Cody was going to be the quarterback for four years. It was suggested when Gary Barnett was gone that Dave Logan should have been hired. That was the right idea then, and it's probably the right idea now (if Shanahan wouldn't take the job).

Scout.com: 2009 CFN Big 12 Week 3 Expert Picks & Roundup
Once again, the editors at College Football News are picking the Buffs to win this week, except for this one game named Matt who picked Toledo last week as well. He has also gone an impressive 18 - 4 straight up and 12 - 4 against the spread, leading the group of six editors.

More links after the jump...

Colorado Buffaloes stampede into the Bottom 10 - ESPN
I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the Buffs have entered ESPN's "Bottom 10". At least we aren't first...but they also turned the Buffalo upside down which is not a good look for Ralphie.

Big 12 predictions, Week 3 - Big 12 - ESPN
Tim Griffin is on board...again. He picks the Buffs to win in an "ugly game" this weekend against the Wyoming Cowboys. I would take the ugliest win in history just to take a week off from all the crap.

Colorado 24, Wyoming 21: It can’t get any worse for Dan Hawkins and the Buffaloes, can it? If they lose this one, it will. Despite the struggles stopping big plays and operating the offense in losses against Colorado State and Toledo, the Buffaloes will rebound. Even though the Cowboys turned the heat up on Texas last week and Dave Christensen had his way against the Buffaloes when he was offensive coordinator at Missouri -- he outscored Colorado by a combined 113-10 margin last season -- it won’t be that easy this time. The Buffaloes will rebound and win a gritty game that won’t be very spectator friendly.

Miller tackles new, yet former, position - The Denver Post
I looks like Buffs LB Shaun Mohler will be back for the game this weekend after sitting out the Toledo game with a concussion:

Mohler ready. Suffering last week from effects of a concussion, senior linebacker Shaun Mohler did not play against Toledo but has been cleared for action against Wyoming. Mohler did not make the trip to Ohio and had to watch the Friday night horror show on TV. "It was pretty frustrating," Mohler said. "I wanted to be out there with the guys. We struggled, but I think we'll be a lot better this week."

Geology head: Apology will be required - The Denver Post
You have heard about the encounter between Marcus Burton and his Geology teacher. The department head found out and is now making the professor apologize for the comment about the Buffs football team this season:

Just like numerous Colorado football fans, Lang Farmer was taken aback when he read in Wednesday's Denver Post that Buffs football player Marcus Burton had been called out in class by his professor for the team's poor play. "My reaction upon reading the article this morning is just as negative as everyone else's, more so probably since it was my department," wrote Farmer, the chairman of the geology department at CU, via e-mail Wednesday.

Barking Carnival — Blog — Dan Hawkins Seeks The Wisdom of Busey
Barking Carnival has an "interesting" interview with Coach Hawk....

The Longmont Times-Call - Former Buff WR Kendrick Celestine Eyes Return

10 things to watch in the Big 12, Week 3 - Big 12 - ESPN

4. Can it get any worse for Colorado? Coach Dan Hawkins’ team has been one of the nation’s biggest early disappointments. Hawkins brashly predicted "10 wins and no excuses" before the season. They might not make that prediction at this point if they played 50 games. Expect some fans at Folsom Field to be wearing paper bags over their head in shame after the Buffaloes’ disappointing 0-2 start that included losses five days apart to Colorado State and Toledo. Hawkins’ seat already is blistering and he’ll be facing a Wyoming team directed by Dave Christensen, a former Missouri offensive coordinator who helped outscore the Buffaloes by a combined margin of 113-10 in the last two seasons he was there. Christenson’s offenses have a current run of 106 straight points against the Buffaloes after those two games. If that streak continues, Hawkins’ tenuous job status may bubble over.

Wednesday Buff Bites: Miller Moves Back to Tackle, Hawkins Will Start at QB

irish1611 — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 03:10:18 -0000

The Buffzone Blog - Ryan Miller moves to right tackle

Ryan Miller moves to right tackle this week. Bryce Givens dealing with some personal issues. Blake Behrens or Matt Bahr possible right guard

Cody Hawkins expected to play vs. Wyoming - The Denver Post

USC Trojans phenom Matt Barkley and Michigan Wolverines phenom Tate Forcier Dash to the forefront - ESPN
Pat Forde of ESPN, the guy who picked Colorado to win the North in the preseason, called the scheduling of Toledo only five days after a rivalry game as "one of the dumbest scheduling moves of all time" by Mike Bohn:

This one deserves special merit for one of the dumbest scheduling moves of all time, by Buffs athletic director Mike Bohn, who agreed to play a Friday night road game two times zones away after a Sunday night rivalry game. If Dan Hawkins loses his job after this season -- that remains a bigger if than some might think, given the cost of his buyout and CU's troubled athletic finances -- he can blame Bohn for lining up this trap game.

Woelk: Panic button still untouched by Buffaloes - Boulder Daily Camera
In a shocker based on calling the Buffs' play this past two weeks "inexcusable," Neill Woelk doesn't believe this season is a complete loss yet. I don't think it is a complete loss yet either considering only two games are complete but with the schedule only getting harder, we will see:

Theories as to why the Buffs have started so slowly are as plentiful as the points they`ve allowed. One former player told me Hawkins` offense isn`t geared to the team`s talent.Another said the fault lies with the defense, that it has been deteriorating over the last couple of years and the worst is still ahead. And yet another ex-Buff insists the troubles can all be traced to Hawkins` lack of motivational skills. Maybe some or all of that is true, but fact is, it`s still Hawkins` team, and he still has time to change the direction. With 10 games remaining on the schedule, there`s ostensibly still enough time to make this season memorable for something other than being the one every Buff fan wishes he could forget.

Hawkins to stay course - Boulder Daily Camera

The Longmont Times-Call - Buffs plan to simplify defense against Wyo.

Defensive coordinator Ron Collins said a simpler scheme means CU is going back to base coverages and won’t rotate as many defenders. Toledo’s fast-paced offense caused CU confusion during Friday’s 54-38 loss. Collins said he expects Wyoming’s offense to use a similar pace. He expects fewer substitutions will reduce confusion.

The Longmont Times-Call - Hounded Hawkins

"Do I worry about what they think?" Hawkins said. "Sure, I worry about what they think. We want our fans, because we need support. We have to have people fill up the stands. We didn’t sell out against Colorado State. I would like to see us sell out every single game. I would like to see our season ticket base grow, like to see our fans grow and see them fired up. I understand why they’re disappointed and all of that. "You do the things you believe in. You do the things close to 30 years of experience have taught you, and you keep hammering away at that. That doesn’t mean you don’t tweak some thing. But you don’t just scrap 30 years of successful experience and say, ‘Well, let’s do it a different way.’"

more Wyoming and Buff links after the jump....

Wyoming Returns Leading WR From Suspension
Former Aurora, CO and current Wyoming receiver Greg Bolling returns from suspension this week against the Buffs. The 6'2" wideout led the Cowboys putrid offense a year ago in receptions and yards, hauling in 26 catches for 271 yards.

McCartney backs CU coach Hawkins - The Denver Post
Bill McCartney, Colorado's winningest football coach, threw his full support behind struggling Colorado coach Dan Hawkins today. "I still believe he's laid the right foundation," McCartney said, "and with a foundation of sound character, hard work and principles, it's just a matter of time."

Big 12 power rankings: Week 2 - Big 12 - ESPN
Tim Griffin drops the Buffs to 12 out of 12 in the Big 12 in his weekly rankings:

12. Colorado: It can’t get much worse to start the season for the Buffaloes, who dropped two games to schools from outside BCS conferences and allowed 1,000 yards on defense to boot. The Buffaloes’ embarrassing defensive efforts have them ranked in the bottom 10 teams nationally in rushing defense, pass efficiency defense and total defense. And a rushing game that was thought to be the team's biggest strength ranks only 109th nationally.

Colorado eye on: The Cowboys - The Denver Post

Buffs face offensive guru - Boulder Daily Camera
Former Missouri Tigers offensive coordinator is now the head coach at Wyoming. Many fans have dreadful memories of Christensen's offense the past two years:

Christensen is confident his offense will be able to move the ball and score points this season against teams without burnt orange uniforms. Entering Saturday's game, CU's defense ranks 111th after yielding an average of 500 yards and 38.5 points in losses to Colorado State and Toledo. "I don't think it's any secret. Everybody knows how good they are. They're ranked No. 2 for a reason," Christensen said of the Longhorns. "We held them to 13 points in the first half. I played them last year at Missouri and they scored the first six times they had the football. Our defense is playing well. We have to do a better job offensively. We have to find some ways to keep the possession of the football."

Brooks: Simas Seems Settled - CUBuffs.com

CU coach Hawkins feeling the hot seat - The Denver Post

After an embarrassing loss at Toledo, Colorado football players knew they would have a hostile greeting when they returned home, but maybe they didn't know the extent of it. They do now. "I have this geology class," senior linebacker and captain Marcus Burton said Tuesday, "and the professor's like, 'You people may think this class is boring. We're just talking about rocks. But it's no more boring than both the CU games. Marcus, you're a captain. Can you tell us about that?' "He calls me out on the floor. I wanted to leave, but I didn't. I'm in the class to learn. I'm not there to talk about football."

Big 12 games this week - KLTV 7 News Tyler, Longview, Jacksonville |

Key Matchup Colorado RB Darrell Scott vs. Wyoming DL John Fletcher. Scott, a prized recruit who hasn't yet turned into a dominate player, had 85 yards on 12 carries in the loss at Toledo. Fletcher is the anchor of the Cowboys line. He has two sacks this season, both in the opener against Weber State.

Players to watch Wyoming: Junior FS Chris Prosinski had a career high 17 tackles against Texas last week and a pair of sophomores - LB Brian Hendricks and CB Marcell Gipson - added 14 and 12 tackles, respectively. LB Weston Johnson tied a career high with 11 tackles. Colorado: Junior QB Cody Hawkins was knocked woozy after a helmet-to-helmet hit near the end zone against Toledo. But he's expected to start again. The Buffaloes are trying to avoid stripping speedy QB Tyler Hansen of his redshirt year.

Facts & Figures The Buffaloes will don throwback jerseys from the 1930s - the days of Byron "Whizzer" White - on Saturday. The uniforms feature gold jerseys with black numbers and silver pants. ... The Buffaloes defense has allowed 16 plays of 20 or more yards this season. ... Cowboys senior WR Greg Bolling returns after serving a 2-game suspension for violating team rules. Bolling led Wyoming in receiving last season, hauling in 26 passes for 271 yards.

INSIDE THE MATCHUP: Wyoming at Colorado
The Buffs aren't the only team giving up a lot of big plays this season. Wyoming is having problems of their own keeping opposing teams offenses limited:

KEY STAT: The Pokes continue to be bugged by big plays. One week after allowing nine plays of 15 or more yards to Football Subdivision opponent Weber State, the Pokes gave up 11 such plays to the Longhorns -- including three touchdowns from at least 25 yards out. UW had just two plays go for at least 15 yards Saturday and have just nine such plays through two games.

Hawkins’ Tuesday Press Conference Quotes - CUBuffs.com

On Defensive Issues-"The biggest thing is we have a really good defensive staff, and it's interesting, what we are trying to do to some degree is try to make it so perfect and so exact that sometimes you overdo it just a hair. I think you can do that on offense too, and you run into situations where you make sure you have the right amount of numbers, and if they have seven in the box, run it, or eight in the box so don't run it, sometimes you just need to just line up and run it. I think that's a lot of it, we just have to be able to kind of not worry about every single exact nuance, but maybe the simplicity allows for the complexity, and that's it. We get tied into knots by trying to do too much or thinking a little bit. Part of that is due to inexperienced nature, particularly as it pertains to the kids up front, and part of it is like I said, trying to be such a great coach that you want to put them right in exactly the right place every single time, I think that's a lot of it."

CU Buffs coach Dan Hawkins says he's secure in his job despite 0-2 start - Boulder Daily Camera

Brooks: J-Brown Having A Friend Over - CUBuffs.com

In Laramie, Christensen initially might be lacking the firepower he's accustomed to wielding, but his system hasn't changed. CU remembers it as the stuff of nightmares; over the past two seasons, Christensen and the Tigers thoroughly embarrassed the Buffs, flogging them 55-10 in 2007 and 58-0 in 2008. "They're Missouri," CU secondary coach Greg Brown said of Wyoming's offensive scheme under Christensen. "They're extremely similar to what he was doing at Missouri and had so much success with."

Wyoming Tribune Eagle Online - Is lack of finishing a cause for concern for Pokes?

"Just how bad is bottom of Big 12?" by Conference chatter / LJWorld.com

Colorado won't be winning 10 games, much to the chagrin of coach Dan Hawkins. The Buffs (0-2) may lose 10, though. Their defense was dreadful on Friday in a 54-38 pasting at Toledo. The schedule won't be forgiving these next few weeks, either. Colorado is home to Wyoming next week, which should be a win, but then travels to West Virginia, Texas, and is home to Kansas. One-and-5? It's probable.

Omaha.com - The Omaha World-Herald: Sports - Barfknecht: Three-team race

2. Colorado coach Dan Hawkins apparently reads different statistics than the rest of us. Out of 120 teams nationally, the Buffaloes (0-2) are 107th in scoring defense, 109th in rushing offense, 111th in total defense, 112th in rushing defense and 119th in pass efficiency defense. Yet from listening to Hawkins on Monday's Big 12 teleconference, things are good after losses of 23-17 to Colorado State and 54-38 to Toledo. On his players' mental state after questions about their effort against Toledo:

"They're good. They hustled Friday night and we practiced hard Sunday morning.'' On an offense ranked 78th and special teams units floundering in the lower half of the nation: "I think we're starting to find ourselves.'' On falling behind 20-3 to Colorado State and 30-3 to Toledo: "I thought we did better last week.'' On a defense that has allowed 1,000 yards in two games: "We've just got a couple of things we've got to clean up.''

Huh?

Steve Fairchild Was Right, The Colorado Buffaloes Look Silly

irish1611 — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 13:29:14 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

3 months ago: Colorado head coach Dan Hawkins reacts to a call during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Colorado State in Boulder, Colo. on Sunday, Sept. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

Browse more photos »

I fell for the propaganda and for that I apologize to the loyal group of Colorado Buffaloes' fans who grace this site. I fell for the "doctored" information that was coming out of the "closed practice" regime's information department and believed a change was a coming. I failed to look behind the plethora of one word distasteful answers from Dan Hawkins to the media because too many secrets were being let out on blogs like the Ralphie Report for opponents to see.

I glazed over the facts: Quarterback has not improved. The coaching staff has not proven to us in the past or yesterday that they know how to effectively utilize play makers (all the indication we needed was Josh Smith transferring). This group of coaches has made excuses during the season and promised the world in the offseason in the past. In the ultimate definition of dealing with adversity and being a successful team, I overlooked the fact that Colorado has won only twice on the road in Dan Hawkins' term. The defensive line is young and weak. The offensive line is all potential with the belief they might be good but with no prior history of results. At wide receiver, the Buffs have one player who has done anything in a division one game. I believed that a change in the offense would bring the smash mouth back to Colorado football but realized after a sweep wide on 4th and one that no offensive scheme can teach will, toughness and desire to get something accomplished but rather something that you have inside. Too many times we have seen lackadaisical performances, little energy and no response to sudden change during a game.

Shame on me, shame on me.

I never thought I would feel this stupid after a football game.

The best part about this post is I am not going to bring up one statistic. All I needed to hear after the game was one quote from one player to provide all of the ammunition as to why the Colorado football program is failing and quickly becoming the laughing stock of the Big 12.

After this comment by our team captain, I am plain dumbfounded and angered by what is considered acceptable in Boulder:

"I think we kind of might have overlooked CSU a little bit," Riar Geer said. "We were pretty confident going into this game and they came out and played great. They came out and hit us in the mouth those first few drives. You`ve got to take your hat off to them."

Overlooked?

I am stuck pondering the answer to this question: How can a team captain allow HIS team to overlook the first game, a rivalry nonetheless, of "a change in Boulder season where the goal is 10 wins, no excuses." But maybe Riar Geer, Marcus Burton or Jeff Smart don't feel it is "their team." Anytime you hear that quote, you know you have a problem in leadership and at the top of the program.

Apparently, this team isn't that hungry after a 5 - 7 season. Apparently this team thinks it is good enough to just show up and look ahead to who? Toledo? Wyoming? Or to the party on the Hill?

I quote a corny movie moment from "Remember the Titans" that is very applicable in this situation: "Attitude reflects leadership, captain." Leadership; the most underrated quality in life and in sports. The Buffs don't have any and if they do, it has fallen on deaf ears.

The high and mighty 5 - 7 worst offense in the Big 12, "10 wins, no excuses" Colorado Buffaloes "overlooked" the lowly 7 - 6 bowl winning Colorado State Rams team under second year head coach Steve Fairchild, who did something we all thought of as crazy this offseason and something we haven't heard at Colorado in a long time.

He criticized a player to the media, he expected more from his team, more from his quarterback and until he got that performance, he wasn't going to let up or be satisfied. He told Dan Hawkins in an indirect message to his team that if we practice like this, we are going to lose to Colorado. He mocked Dan Hawkins and the Colorado program by calling them "silly" for moving the game to Boulder and he mocked Colorado's decision to not name a starter between their two very talented quarterbacks until game day by nonchalantly telling the media when Grant Stucker was walking off the practice field that he was going to be the quarterback for Colorado State. Steve Fairchild has a little competitiveness, a little attitude, a little bully, a little underdog role in him and it is cleary reflected in his players. And the best thing is he wants that and expects that. He has expectations for his players and they know it.

What sort of traits have we seen from Dan Hawkins that we should expect to be reflected in the Buffs that make a difference on the football field, not supposedly in life 10 years down the line?

I don't know and that is a tough thing to realize.

But who am I to question anything to do with the high and mighty Colorado football program who have been so successful the past four years that they can overlook the Colorado State Rams at home in Boulder. I am just internet scum who doesn't know anything about anything.

Call me anything you want but today, the program looks "silly" just like Steve Fairchild said a few months ago. Think about it. Who do they think they are? They overlook the Rams, shut down practices to the fanbase, give the media one word answers, not allow folks like Kyle Ringo and Tom Kensler to opportunity to do their jobs and report on the Buffs, call a fan base the scum of the world, call former Buff and current broadcaster Joel Klatt out for criticizing the team's spread offense last year because he has not coached before, not name a quarterback for deception, move the game from Denver to Boulder to strong arm the Rams...heck, we high and mightily referenced ten wins! Boy, the Colorado football program looks "silly" this morning. I for one am sick of looking silly.

The worst part is the Colorado State fans ran onto Folsom and I don't even know if the program cared. There was no Tim Tebow speech from anybody in the Colorado program last night and as much as you dislike Tim Tebow, he gets this statement: "Attitude reflects leadership, captain." He also wins games. He wins national championships.

Steve Fairchild, like the rest of the Big 12 and Colorado State fans, must really be enjoying themselves this morning. Colorado State surely didn't overlook the Buffs. And it showed.

"Attitude reflects leadership, captain." "Attitude reflects leadership, coach." It all starts at the top.

Time to Witness Dominance: Keys to the Game and Predictions

irish1611 — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 14:10:28 -0000

This has been one of the more difficult pre-game write-ups to begin. I have re-wrote at least five times to try and describe the excitement of the season opener with a fair blend of urgency that the program must exhibit starting today. At first, I went at the post in an overly positive way but that didn't exhibit all of the feelings. Then, I added some negatives but who wants to be negative when you haven't even played a game yet. So I decided on keeping it simple, keeping it short and saying little other than what should be expected today.

Most Colorado Buffalo fans have a few different feelings going through their system this morning. Excitement is surely one of them, anticipation to see the black and gold run out of that tunnel is most certainly there, but for me, the overwhelming feeling is that desire to bear witness of something that we haven't seen in the past. That is where the nervous feeling comes from this Sunday morning.

It is time to bear witness to a team that can come out and dominate. Not necessarily dominant on the scoreboard with a forty point win but dominate physically, dominate by being the better coached team, dominate on special teams, dominate the halftime adjustments, dominate in preparation and dominate by being the more energized team. Basically, see a discernable difference over the team the Colorado State Rams put on the field today but also the Colorado teams that we have seen trot out the past three years.

Just flat out dominant in the detailed aspects of the game.

The question is, are the Buffs ready to dominate?

Yes, if for no other reason than they better be. Will they? We will see soon enough.

Time to get things done and it starts today against the Rams.

Short, simple and easy, nothing but what is now the defined motto for the Buffs on the Ralphie Report: "Dominate and No Excuses." I like it better than "10 wins and no excuses" anyway.

Now on to the Keys of the Game & The Ralphie Report's 2009 first game predictions.

Stick it to Stucker
The smell of fresh meat is in the air and it's coming from Colorado St. Rams' quarterback Grant Stucker. Stucker will be making his first start against the Colorado Buffaloes today at Folsom Field in front of a close to capacity crowd. What does that mean? Be aggressive & creative in your attempts to get to rattle Stucker. Make his life miserable all day long. Last year, the Buffs sacked first time starter Billy Farris five times and never let him get settled in the pocket. The Buffs went on to win by three touchdowns. It has been well documented that the Rams have a very experienced offensive line but I look for the Buffs to have prepared extremely well in creating mismatches and blitzes that will confuse CSU upfront to get to Stucker. Look for B.J. Beatty, Marcus Burton and Doug Rippy to lead the charge from the linebacker spot in constantly applying pressure on the Rams.

Clearly, Colorado State feels they have a few matchups that they can exploit the Buffs at and one is upfront. Nothing will dishearten the Rams more than showing them early that they don't have the advantage there and nothing will be a bigger detriment to the Buffs chance at victory today than letting Stucker get comfortable in the pocket and throw to his talented receivers.

Special Teams
If the Buffs are going to be a bowl team in 2009, drastic improvement in the specialties play must occur. Colorado cannot give the Rams points or field position in the special teams game. This goes back to the statement of dominance and being mentally tough football team. Special teams is a "want to", not a "have to" assignment for a good football team and its players. You have to have an attitude to play special teams and that attitude wasn't there a year ago. Colorado has better depth and talent than Colorado State and that should show through today in this aspect of the game.

Finish in the Red Zone
Based on the last seasons results, Colorado fans hope to not see a field goal attempted today and because of that, efficiency is crucial in the red zone. Substitute field goal attempts with strong execution for touchdowns.

Playmaking ability
In 2008, it seemed the Buffs had zero playmakers on the field. Maybe they were all too young but I believe it was the fault of the coaching staff in not getting the right scheme offensively to feature talent. Coach Eric Kiesau has led the charge back to a more traditional pro-style offense but he will be tasked today with finding mismatches and featuring players that can be difference makers. Whether it is RB Brian Lockridge in the slot, WR Andre Simmons in a deep ball package scenario, RB Rodney Stewart in the screen game, RB Darrell Scott on the edge or one of the tight ends making an impact across the middle, it is time to have a plan to get these players in favorable situations; something that did not exist a year ago.

On the flip side, Colorado matches up extremely well against and the Rams two best playmakers in WR Rashaun Greer and WR Dion Morton. I expect corners Jimmy Smith, Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown and Ben Burney to compete successfully against the duo of Morton and Greer especially with the graduation of TE Kory Sperry. The Buffs defense cannot let these two receivers beat them. Limit the big plays and Colorado should come out victorious.

Win the Turnover Battle
Cody Hawkins or Tyler Hansen cannot let Grant Stucker outplay them in this category. Be smart with the football.

Make the Rams Come From Behind
Colorado should not be considered a prolific offense yet so it needs help from the defense and has to exhibit precision when it has the ball. If the Rams get up on the Buffs, it might be a recipe for disaster if Colorado needs to rely on an unproven group of receivers to make plays. The CU defense has to be stout in the first few drives of the season, let the Colorado offense get in a rhythm and score a few points. Start well and the Buffs will be in a strong position to win the game.

Prediction Time:

Short, simple and straight to the point just like our motto: 28 - 13. Give us your prediction too!

Message to the fans: get up, make some noise and get it started off right!

Join us for the Live Game Thread during the game today. Go Buffs, Beat the Rams!

Poll

What is your prediction for today's game?

Buffs win big, easily cover the spread of 11 points

92 votes

I think the oddsmakers have this one pegged, put me down for around 11 points

35 votes

It's a rivalry game and is usally pretty close. The Buffs win but not in convincing fashion

30 votes

Rams pull the upset, send Buffs into an early tail spin

52 votes

209 votes | Poll has closed

Five Questions With The Ralphie Report

Jeremy Mauss — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 11:00:31 -0000

The football season is just around the corner, and throughout the non-conference season here at the Connection and we will be interviewing various bloggers with five questions about the upcoming game. This edition features the blog up is The Ralphie Report which is a Colorado blog and they are answering five questions about opponent Colorado State. Also, check out their site for my answers to the five questions later this week.

1. Does this rivalry lose any luster by not being played in Denver this year, and instead being played in Boulder?

Now that the game is scheduled to be played for the next decade, I don't think the rivalry loses any luster by not playing in Denver one year. If anything, it may add some story lines as the game returns to a college campus. There is always a different buzz when the game is played in Boulder and as a Buff supporter, in an important year for Colorado, you won't find me complaining about it too much. If I was a CSU fan, it might be a different story.

2. Is Cody Hawkins still the starter because he is the coaches son, or is the QB situation that wide open?

I think the assumption that Dan Hawkins is playing his son just because he is his son is ludicrous and that is not a shot at the question because that is something that has been thrown out by media all over the place the last few years. I don't believe for one second that Dan Hawkins would risk his high paying job or reputation based on a bias. Although Cody (and Dan) catches a lot of heat, he was the best option the Buffs had at quarterback while he has been at Colorado. The argument "he only plays because he is the kid of the coach" only works when there is a 6'5" 230 pound stud with a rocket arm and a 4.5 forty on the bench. In all fairness to a true freshman Tyler Hansen in 2008 and Matt Ballenger, Cody Hawkins was the best quarterback on the team last season. I truly believe the best quarterback for the team will play against Colorado State and, from what I have seen at practice, that is Cody Hawkins.

We have been told that the quarterback competition is wide open and so far, reps have been split pretty evenly to determine who should get the nod. Colorado St. will probably see a dose of both quarterbacks.

While I give Dan Hawkins the benefit of the doubt on the quarterback he plays based on what he has on the roster at the time, that doesn't excuse him for not solidifying the quarterback position via recruiting better quarterbacks, a better game plan, depth around the quarterback, etc.

3. What does Head Coach Dan Hawkins need to accomplish to stay off the hot seat or not get fired?

Due to the financial ramifications of firing a head coach, especially one who just received an extension like Hawkins, it would take a lot for Dan Hawkins to be fired. One or two wins and the department would have to think really hard about the situation but unless the season is catastrophic like a one win total, Dan Hawkins should be back in 2010.

To get off the hot seat, though, he needs to win 8+ games and get to a decent bowl game. This is by far the easiest schedule the Buffs have had since Hawkins has been here and when you look at the next couple of years, it will be the best chance them to get something rolling. He needs to win to recruit and convince prospects that the program is healthy and he will be at the helm.

Hawkins also needs to win some road games, preferably a big one here or there. CU has won two games away from Folsom field since Hawkins took over, which will never get you to elite status. Wins @ West Virginia, @Kansas State, @Iowa State and @ Toledo are not out of the question (no one expects the Buffs to go into Austin or Stillwater and win) and would go a long way towards making the faithful believe the Buffs are headed in the right direction.

4. What needs to improve more for a successful season, the offense or defense?

Easy, the offense. Both need to improve but hands down, the offense needs to show the greatest improvement. The Buffs have had the worst statistical offense in the Big 12 over the last three years, putting up embarrassing offensive numbers in terms of yards and points. You can expect a 13 - 24 record when you are ranked last in a conference that has turned into an offensive juggernaut.

Better question is will the Buffs be able to improve this season? I think so. The offensive line and running backs are going to be very good. They are much healthier than a year ago and have gained a valuable year of experience. There is also great depth at the two positions. Since the line and the running backs will be better, I expect the quarterback play to improve. A year ago, the offensive line was patchwork at best making any quarterback's life difficult. We all know Cody Hawkins isn't going to light the world on fire but he has the makings to be a solid quarterback and one who can lead CU to 8 wins in 2010.

Wide receiver is concern as well with Josh Smith transferring to UCLA. Right now, Colorado has one wide-out who has caught a pass in a division one football game. That is a scary prospect. But the Buffs should improve in this area when sophomore Markques Simas returns from suspension in the third week of the season and Andre Simmons continues to develop after having to sit out most of fall camp due to a delay in the admissions process from junior college. Simmons is 6'3" 215 pounds and should provide the Buffs with a big playmaker. When we can start to reap the benefits of Simmons remains to be seen but I don't expect Simmons to play a big role in the Colorado State game.

5. How is the defense going to fair by replacing their defensive line that is going up against an offensive line that has 129 cumulative starts which is most in the country?

Let's go back to last year to get some perspective on the Buffs defensive line and the uber-experienced Colorado State offensive line. In 2008, the defensive line underperformed to expectations. The Buffs were 7th in the Big 12 in sacks and 54th overall. The team leader in sacks was LB Brad Jones so once again, showing the defensive line's experience last year didn't translate to sacks or quarterback pressure. Also, the Buffs were horrible against the run, ranking 9th in the Big 12 while giving up 166 yards per game.

Against this same offensive line last year and an underperforming defensive line, the Buffs got to Farris 5 times (only 24 sacks all season, over 1/5 of the production in one game) and gave up 71 net yards on the ground compared to an average of 166 per game last season. Yes, this offensive line is very experienced but, for arguments sake, let's not necessarily equate experience with dominance especially considering the Rams lose a lot of talent at running back from last year. That being said, I understand the point that the offensive line improved as the year went on and that is where they gained most of their experience. So I expect them to be better but factoring in the new quarterback and running backs, I am not ready to crown them just yet.

Of course, I am still worried about the Buffs defensive line. Worried in the sense that no one knows what to expect at the position which is better than knowing the line will be horrendous. Last year, the same was being said about the Buffs' cornerbacks but that turned out to be a strength and in 2009, Colorado might have the best set of cornerbacks in the conference. So who knows what will come from the front four.

The Buffs will definitely compensate for the inexperience up front by showing multiple formations varying from the 4 - 3, 3 - 4 and even a 3 - 3 - 5 in passing situations due to a strong back seven. Middle linebackers Marcus Burton (260 pounds) and Michael Sipili (250 pounds, questionable for the game) have really emerged compared to last season and should bolster the middle with their size compared to a year ago. I expect a very active linebacking corp this season, starting with the game this Sunday, to get pressure on the quarterback and aid in the run. I would be very surprised if you didn't see a lot of 3 - 4 to get the most playmakers on the field with blitzes coming from many spots on the field.

Prediction Time - I am always nervous for the first game of the year and with big question marks at wide receiver, quarterback (I am not too worried about quarterback but if I didn't list it, I assume I would be chastised for it) and defensive line, I hesitate from predicting a Buffs blowout. But I ask myself "are the Buffs better than last year?" and the answer is "yes." Considering the Buffs have improved, are healthier and is playing at home, Colorado starts 1 - 0. Score 31 - 20.

Sunday Buff Bites - "We Ain't Going to Make No Mistakes"

irish1611 — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 23:07:33 -0000

Brooks: Young D-Line Determined - CUBuffs.com
Marquez Herrod, one of the few returning defensive linemen, wants all the naysayers to know that the defensive line is on a mission to prove us all wrong:

Since August camp began - and actually several weeks before - it's been difficult for Marquez Herrod to tune out, or even turn down, the noise. Here's the annoying perception: If there is a questionable sector on Colorado's defense, it's the one Herrod inhabits - the D-line. "We hear every day: 'You're not good enough, you're not big enough, you're not fast enough,'" said Herrod, an intensely competitive junior defensive end. "Everybody on the line agrees; it looks like everybody (outside) wants to see us fall," he continued. "Everybody is saying the linebackers are there to clean up our mistakes. Well, we ain't going to make no mistakes.

Colorado Losing to...Louisiana Tech - The Ralphie Report Calls Buff Fans to Pick It Up!
So the Wizard of Odds is holding their annual "Team Poster" competition. The Colorado Buffaloes have a legit poster that should make it to the final rounds but Louisiana Tech fans have rallied the troops and our poster is in danger of not making it out of the first round...to Louisiana "freaking" Tech. So do the program a favor and vote for the CU poster and while your at it, you can laugh at Colorado State's poster for producing the worst poster and portrayal of the Fort I have seen.

Injuries, lack of production push Fairchild to give receiver another shot at CSU QB job
Colorado St. Rams coach Steve Fairchild may have been sandbagging when he was talking about the quarterback situation a week ago after his comments didn't match the statistics Buff fans were seeing from scrimmages but he might have a point now. With junior college transfer Jon Eastman limited with a broken finger on his non-throwing hand, Klay Kubiak still feeling the affects of his shoulder injury and now with the starter by elimination in Grant Stucker going 3 - 11 in the most recent scrimmage, Fairchild's rants may have some validity to it. Due to the circumstances, Fairchild has now put a wide receiver at quarterback. That wide receiver is 6'4" 202 pound sophomore T.J. Borcky.

With the first game two weeks away, Colorado State is searching for a way to get the ball to two strong receivers but their may not be enough fall practices left to be confident in that.

Burton, Geer & Smart Named CU Captains - CUBuffs.com

Senior linebackers Marcus Burton and Jeff Smart along with senior tight end Riar Geer were selected as team captains by their University of Colorado teammates, head coach Dan Hawkins announced Sunday afternoon.

It is pretty safe to say that at least two of these captains need to have huge years for the Buffs to have a turn around year.

Lights Installed At Folsom Field - CUBuffs.com
Finally, the University of Colorado has permanent lights for Folsom Field.

True Freshman DE Forrest West and DT Nate Bonsu Impressing Coaches, May Not Redshirt
You heard it here first from the Ralphie Report that we thought 2009 signee DE Forrest West could be this year's Speedy Stewart. This was our review on signing day, detailing the recruiting wins and losses:

Who is the guy that no one is really talking about or not as much but you feel will be a sleeper when his career is said and done? What are the reasons?

I had a chance to talk to Forrest West's coach and watch some of his film. His coach told me some great things about him and after watching him, I think he may be the missing peice to the puzzle when it comes to a solid combo guy who can rush the passer but also has a good motor when it comes to stopping the run. He has a great physique, something that Rodney Stewart had, that allowed him to be successful early. His coach said this about him: "He was the defensive MVP of the National Underclassmen combine, the big national one they had in New Jersey. He was doing some great things before he got hurt his sophomore year... Coming off his sophomore year, though, I was talking to Florida and USC and everyone in between about him." He is my pick for a guy that will out perform that 2* rating.

It looks like we have a chance at being right. According to the Longmont Times and Denver Post, Mr. West is making quite an impression. From the DP: "He really fits the mold of the kind of player that we want. He's a good person. He's smart. He's a hard worker." And on the field? "He can run, and he's strong," Collins said. The Longmont Times quotes defensive line coach Romeo Bandison saying West has a chance to see the field if he maintains his growth in understanding the defensive schemes: "West said defensive line coach Romeo Bandison told him that if he could learn the plays, he’d have a chance to see the field right away. He said he has learned it "pretty fast" and believes he’s ahead."

Many more Buff football links after the jump including Andre Simmons' talk, the quarterback race, the emerging freshman receiver and Hawkins/Hansen talk...

CU turns tables on Big 12, set to run with power - The Denver Post

Coaches' Stay Mum But Hopeful on Andre Simmons Qualifying
From cubuffs.com, "(a)sked about the status of receiver Andre Simmons, Dan Hawkins said, "It's still on the move." An NCAA elibigility issue has kept Simmons sidelined" and the Longmont Times, "When asked if he is still holding out hope for receiver Andre Simmons to join the team this fall, Hawkins said: "Yep.""

All I know is classes start tomorrow and the time period to add/drop classes will come and go shortly after twhich usually signifies the end of the qualification period...obviously. Even if Simmons does qualify, he probably wouldn't be ready until the West Virginia game.

State's QBs wait for a signal - The Denver Post
Every major Colorado college football team is in a similar position to the Buffs: the quarterback position has not been decided.

2010 Commit Mister Jones' Littleton High School Team Poised to Breakout

Sleeper: Littleton Maybe too talented to be considered a sleeper, Littleton is ready to build on last year’s 8-3 record and potentially make a push in playoffs. Littleton’s success is not completely determined by, but greatly effected, on the legs of Mister Jones. The ultra talented Colorado running back commit is a force on the field but has fought injuries throughout his career. If he can stay healthy and post monster numbers, the Lions could have a big season. Jones is not alone, All-League TE/LB Noah Gaumer returns as a big play threat in the passing game. Up front Tristan Mosier and Josh Fliedner will try to open space for Jones. Defensively, the Lions return a nice core that includes Gaumer, Mosier on the defensive line, linebacker Ben Hranchak and defensive back Adam Singleton.

The Buffzone Blog - Players impressed with Polk, too
Converted running back Ray Polk is making waves at the safety spot and current safety Anthony Perkins believes he is on the cusp of really making some noise on the defense.

CU's Jefferson catching on quickly - Boulder Daily Camera
Many believed that wide receivers Terdema Ussery and Jarrod Darden would be the freshmen to play this season but the August signee, Will Jefferson, arrived on campus late but has made the most of every minute and has himself poised to make an appearance on the two deep depth chart come game one. The signing of Will Jefferson might be a move we look back on at the end of the year as a big, big event in giving the Buffs some much needed depth:

Asked after the scrimmage how Jefferson has separated himself, offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau credited Jefferson's study habits for his rapid advancement through the ranks. "The guy is very smart. He's very intelligent," Kiesau said. "He studies. He takes time. He doesn't go goof around and play Xbox all night. He sits there with the playbook and takes notes." Jefferson's development goes to show just how meaningless recruiting rankings become once players arrive on campus and have to earn time on the field. Jefferson didn't even have a profile on either Scout.com or Rivals.com until earlier this summer, while Ussery and Darden have been well-known prospects since midway through high school.

Championship may move to Dallas for good : Kansan.com
Coach Hawkins thinks a permanent move of the Big 12 championship to Dallas provides a competitive advantage to the South. How about the conference switches off between Denver and Dallas...problem solved.

More chances coming for CU's Espinoza : Boulder Daily Camera

Buff running back 'B-Lock' zipping through openings Boulder Daily Camera

CU Buffs' Tyler Hansen: QB battle pretty even - Colorado Daily

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Colorado Buffaloes Team Capsule

irish1611 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 08:36:59 -0000

If the Buffs are to realize their goals for 2009, Cody Hawkins' and the entire offenses' performance much improve from their 95th total offense ranking a year ago.

View full size photo »

Coach: Dan Hawkins enters his third season at Colorado (13-24, 0 - 1 in postseason).
Coaching Changes: Offensive Coordinator Eric Kiesau (replaces Mark Helfrich - Oregon), Offensive Line Coach Denver Johnson (replaces Jeff Grimes - Auburn), Defensive Consultant/Linebackers Bob Foster added to roster, Dan Hawkins to coach Wide Receivers.
2008 Record: 5-7 overall, 2-6 in Big 12
Players Returning with '08 Starts:
- Offense: 15 - WR Scotty McKnight, LT Nate Solder, LG Blake Behrens, RT Matthew Bahr, TE Riar Geer, TE Ryan Deehan, QB Cody Hawkins, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Rodney Stewart, RB Demetrius Sumler, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Darrell Scott, FB Jack Behrens, OG Ryan Miller, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner.
  - 64% (85 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Defense: 9 - DE Marquez Herrod, LB Jeff Smart, LB Shaun Mohler, CB Cha'pelle Brown, S Anthony Perkins, S Patrick Mahnke, CB Jimmy Smith, CB Jalil Brown, LB Michael Sipili
  - 39% (51 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Special teams: 2 - P Matt DiLallo, PK Aric Goodman.
Key Positions to Replace From 2008 - Defensive Line, Center, Safety
Key Losses from 2008: LB Brad Jones, S Ryan Walters, DT George Hypolite, DT Brandon Nicolas, C Daniel Sanders, OG Devin Head.
Newcomers Who Might See Time in 2009: DE Nick Kasa, DT Nate Bonsu, LB Forrest West, WR Jarrod Darden, WR Will Jefferson, WR Terdema Ussery, WR Andre Simmons, K Zach Grossnickle.

OFFENSE

2008 OFFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Offense: 86^th overall, 10^th in Big 12 / Passing Offense: 81^st overall, 11^th in Big 12 / Total Offense: 95^th overall, 12^th in Big 12 / Scoring Offense: 100^th overall, 12^th in Big 12.

The 2008 season was an offensive performance to forget. A rash of injuries, inexperienced players at important positions and a lack of a consistent identity spelt trouble for the Colorado Buffaloes. With the 2009 season just around the corner, a more experienced unit overall plus a healthy group of linemen up front has many hoping that the Buffs will reverse the lackluster offensive performance of the past few years. That being said, there are still plenty of question marks that still need to be answered.

the rest of the offensive, defensive, Q&A and win/loss predictions after the jump....

NEW FACES BRINGS NEW SCHEMES: One of the headlines coming into the 2009 season was the changes to the offensive staff. Joining the Colorado Buffaloes this offseason was offensive line coach Denver Johnson, who previously held the Illinois State head coaching job. Replacing Jeff Grimes, Johnson has seemed to endear himself to the fan base, preaching to bring back a more smash mouth style of football, playing on the opposition's side of the ball and putting the five linemen on the field. Such was displayed with Johnson's decision to move Ryan Miller to guard to make way for OT Blake Behrens. Johnson inherits a unit with no seniors but full of talent and a reason to be optimistic about the program's future. If Johnson can quickly& successfully implement his system with this young but relatively experienced offensive line, Buff fans should brace for a much improved offensive performance in 2009. The good news for the new coach is, unlike last year, his unit looks much healthier. Back from injury/off the field issues is Miller, OG Ethan Adkins, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner (mid season return expected) and C Mike Iltis; all of whom will be battling for a starting spot.

Their was also a shake up at the top with former wide receivers and assistant head coach, Eric Kiesau, taking over as offensive coordinator for Mark Helfrich. The season opener against Colorado State will mark the first game which Eric Kiesau has owned the game plan and called the plays on game day. Last season, the Buffs failed to establish any sort of identity, attempting to run the spread with a youthful, injured team that lacked game changing playmakers. Kiesau has said to want to bring back a more "pro-style" offense that allows for more power football, the use of tight ends and a progression based passing game, three traits that bode well for the strengths of CU's offense.

Head coach Dan Hawkins will take over the wide receiver coaching duties replacing Kiesau. Ashley Ambrose will assist Hawkins with the wide receivers and should take over in the near future.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: With WR Markques Simas suspended for the first two games of the season, junior college transfer WR Andre Simmons qualifying status up the air as of Thursday, August 18^th, the lone remaining experienced receiver on the Buffs' roster is Scotty McKnight. Not labeled as an explosive receiver, the Buffs need him to continue to be the steady force and over achieve on his prior two seasons considering the Buffs might not have a lot elsewhere to provide production. Colorado might get some production out of true freshman Will Jefferson, Jarrod Darden and Terdema Ussery but McKnight might be the best and only experienced option in 2009.

In an obvious choice, QB Cody Hawkins, who looks to have the edge in the quarterback race, needs to improve from 2008. The lack of playmakers currently at wide receiver does not bode well for increased production from Hawkins but tight end, running back and offensive line look to be improved from a year ago. If Hawkins can make better decisions and manage the offense through a strong running game, the passing game should open up. The key for Hawkins this year is to increase his completion percentage which was 57.2% in 2008, about 5% below the average junior quarterback % in 2008. Sustaining drives, keeping the defense off the field and converting on third downs will all improve with an increase in completions.

You could go running back here but with a stable of four in the backfield, the production looks to be there. Most Buff fans will look at the offensive line and hope that their health leads to more points. That being said, look to the tackle spots as players who need to play big in 2009. LT Nate Solder and RT Blake Behrens have the inside track at the two starting positions with the prospects of a bright future ahead of them. Solder, the athletically gifted converted tight end, has all the intangibles to be a dominant tackle while Behrens has similar intangibles and great footwork. Solder, due to his position change, and Behrens, due to being a redshirt freshman, will still have growing pains but if they are able to work through those early in the season, the offensive line has the makings to be special.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Hands down this was going to be WR Markques Simas or WR Andre Simmons before the former was suspended two games and the latter is still sitting on the sideline well into week two of fall ball due to admissions issues. The new impact newcomer may be WR Will Jefferson, who was an August 2009 signee. He has seen time with the first and second teams this fall and has impressed the coaches. The safe pick here, though, is Givens, who quickly inserted himself into the starting rotation this spring after gaining 20+ pounds to his true freshman frame. Givens has the ability to grow into a great one.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE OFFENSE: Running Back and Offensive Line. The Buffs boast one of the more loaded backfields in the Big 12 with sophomores Darrell Scott, Rodney Stewart and Brian Lockridge along with junior Demetrius Sumler. Stewart led the Buffs in rushing yards as a freshman and Sumler led the team in rushing touchdowns in 2008. Lockridge, a speedster, returns from injury after a serviceable 2007 freshman campaign and looks to be an added weapon that can be useful as a third down back and in the slot. But Darrell Scott still leads the ranks in the hype category. Supposedly in the best shape of his life at 220 pounds and fully recovered from his 2008 injury-plagued season, Scott looks to take a mulligan in 2009 and become an elite Big 12 back. Still, don't count out the other three, especially Rodney Stewart, who continues to impress. We do know one thing; running backs coach Darian Hagan will play the best man for the job regardless of preseason hype.

The offensive line has all the potential you could ask for to build a team around. They are big, fast, athletic, and will be around for a long time. Nate Solder is the veteran on the offensive line, sort of, checking in as a junior with all other players vying for starting spots coming in as either sophomores or redshirt freshmen. Solder and Ryan Miller lead the way in the size category coming at 6'9" 305 pounds and 6'8" 320 pounds respectively with Solder considered to be one of the most athletic players on the team, running a sub 5.0 second forty this offseason. C Mike Iltis looks to have the center spot locked down replacing Daniel Sanders from a year ago while Givens will man the right tackle spot. The only position that looks to be up for grabs at this point in time is the other guard spot. Ethan Adkins looks to have the upper hand but watch out for Blake Behrens and Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner, once he returns from his ACL injury, to push for time there. This unit is big, athletic, has depth and should be a bright spot in 2009 if they can protect the quarterback.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE OFFENSE: Wide Receiver and Quarterback. Wide receiver takes spots #1 and #2 in our weakness review. With Scotty McKnight the only player active who has caught a pass in a division one football game, the Buffs lack known quantities at the flanker spot. Markques Simas will hopefully return against Wyoming from suspension but with his academic ineligibility in 2008 coupled with the most current infraction, Buff fans should not count on anything. Andre Simmons, if admitted, should not be expected to be ready for the Colorado State game considering he has been sitting on the sideline for the last two weeks. Hopefully the Buffs can have both Simmons and Simas ready by the Wyoming game and can get production from one of the true freshman. Walk-on WR Jason Espinoza will also play a part in the offense. There are just not a lot of options at wide receiver this year.

Playmaking ability still remains a big concern on both sides of the ball. In 2008, the Buffs lacked explosiveness and with former WR Josh Smith transferring to UCLA, many players will be counted on to be a game changer that have not necessarily produced game changing results in the past. If the Buffs want to get to 7, 8 or 9 wins, Darrell Scott, Markques Simas, Rodney Stewart, Brian Lockridge, potentially Andre Simmons, one of the tight ends need to evolve into consistent threats on the offensive side of the ball.

DEFENSE

2008 DEFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Defense: 86^th overall, 9^th in Big 12 / Passing Efficiency Defense: 73rd overall, 5^th in Big 12 / Total Defense: 78^th overall, 4^th in Big 12 / Scoring Defense: 86^th overall, 8^th in Big 12.

2008 provided some surprises on the defensive side of the ball. A senior-laden defensive line was supposed to be the strength of the team with the cornerbacks the weak spot. Roles reversed and relatively speaking, the cornerback play exceeded expectations while the defensive line failed to meet expectations. Often thought of as "solid but not spectacular" last season, the defense is considered to be strong to very strong in the back seven in 2009 but inexperienced up front. Colorado's defense has the opportunity to be a top tier Big 12 squad if they can get solid play from the front four.

ADJUSTING AND MULTIPLE: No one knows really what the Buffs are going to do on defense this year. Dan Hawkins has kept the defense on the far side of the practice field this offseason out of the public eye, shut down practices because of the leaking of defensive formations on the internet and has even brought in Bob Foster, his past mentor at Cal-Davis, to add his defensive knowledge. As noted above and from what observers have seen, the Buffs look like they won't be afraid to mix up the base sets. The lack of known commodities up front might force Colorado to become more multiple, switching between the 3 - 4, 4 - 3 and even 3 - 3 - 5 defensive schemes. Such defensive looks are possible due to some exceptional depth at the linebacker and cornerback spots.

Defensive coordinator Ron Collins has preached this offseason that his goal is to get the 11 best players on the field and that might mean three down linemen. If the Buffs lineup with three, Collins will have to be creative in his blitz packages and cover schemes. Establishing quarterback pressure is the name of the game this year as last year the Buffs ranked 7^th in the conference in sacks, averaging on 2.0 a game.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: The Buffs need to replace 17 ½ sacks which is well over half of their total sack production from a year ago. Most are hoping that LB B.J. Beatty can replace last year's production of LB Brad Jones. Beatty showed, when healthy, that he has a nose for the football. If Colorado opts for a 3 - 4 defense, Beatty figures to play a prominent role as a rush end/stand-up outsider backer similar to what Brad Jones did for the '08 team. Again, with the major concern over who is going to get to the quarterback, players like B.J. Beatty are going to have to produce.

Marcus Burton is another player who is being counted on for a big year. An afterthought last year, Burton has rededicated himself to football and the 260 pound middle linebacker made his presence known this spring. Even though he was the biggest linebacker during offseason testing, Burton still produced the fastest forty time and showed great sideline to sideline range. Burton, considering with inexperience up front, will have a difficult job sifting through offensive linemen and being productive. Burton will have to be the anchor of the defense, especially in the early going of the season as the coaches try to figure out who will produce up front.

CB Jimmy Smith is the final player who needs to have a big year. With two inexperienced safeties in the Colorado secondary and a defensive line that is unproven, pass coverage will be at a premier this season. CB Cha'pelle Brown proved his worth last season. With CB Ben Burney returning from injury and CB Jalil Brown back from a successful 2008 campaign, the Buffs have plenty of depth at the position. But Jimmy Smith has the ability to change the game and shut down a side of the field on his own, making S Patrick Mahnke and S Anthony Perkin's life a lot easier. Smith, the 6'3" 200 pound NFL prototype cornerback, has the ability to be the best corner in the Big 12.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Early money was on DE Nick Kasa and DT Edward Nuckols due to the inexperience on the defensive line but with Kasa partially tearing his MCL and Nuckols failing to academically qualify, the Buffs will have to look elsewhere for immediate help. The most logical choice is now DT Nate Bonsu. The 6'1" 295 pound Allen, Texas product may just be forced into some early action.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE DEFENSE: Linebacker and Cornerback. Ask Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart about how strong the linebacker group is. Mohler and Smart were both starters a year ago and all conference awarded players. This year, they might be battling for one spot; and the Buffs may even add another linebacker position to run the 3 - 4. Marcus Burton impressed this offseason as did Michael Sipili, who will be competing for the middle linebacker job. Throw in the young but physically gifted Douglas Rippy and the potential of B.J. Beatty and this may be the deepest position on the Buffs team. And we didn't even mention Jon Major, a heavily recruited player from Colorado who tore his ACL last season as a true freshman.

A similar story at cornerback with 2007 starter Ben Burney returning to team up with Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith, all of whom started at least one game in 2008. Who starts against Colorado State will be fun to watch.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE DEFENSE: Defensive line, based purely on inexperience, not poor past performance. Gone are three seniors from a year ago and in are unproven players like DT Curtis Cunningham, DE Conrad Obi, DE Marquez Herrod, DT Eugene Goree, DT Tyler Sale, DT Will Pericak, DE Forrest West and DT Nate Bonsu. Nick Kasa may be in the mix after he recovers from the partial MCL tear.

Marquez Herrod will probably be a starter at defensive end but after that, it's anyone's guess. Curtis Cunningham played as a true freshman last season and made a few plays but he is still considered raw.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Last year's special team's performance was abysmal and should be a big point of emphasis this season if the Buffs' plan to be a player in the North. The departure of Josh Smith leaves a hole in the return game and 1,987 all purpose yards lost. The top candidates to fill the return role are Jason Espinoza, Rodney Stewart, Andre Simmons and Darrell Scott. K Aric Goodman returns, but he was just 5 for 14 on field goal attempts last season. The Buffs also return P Matt DiLallo who averaged 40.49 yards/punt last season while splitting time with Tom Suazo.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN AND QUICK HIT PREDICTIONS

Sept 5^th - Colorado St. Rams: The rivalry game is in Boulder, not in Denver, giving the Buffs a home field advantage. CSU will be breaking in a new quarterback and looks to have a weak front seven returning on defense. If CSU can get any quarterback play, it could be a dangerous game but expect the Buffs to load the box on defense. Prediction: W (1-0)
Sept 11^th - @ Toledo Rockets: the proverbial trap game with only five days rest. It is a Friday night game on the road against a team with a new coach; yes, a little scary. Like Colorado State, Toledo returns a lot of offensive line experience. Couple all of that with the dismal road record under Dan Hawkins (only 2 wins in three years) and the Buffs could be in more trouble than we would like to believe. That being said, Colorado has the more talented team and should win by double digits. Prediction: W (2-0)
Sept 19^th - Wyoming Cowboys: If the Buffs can start 2 - 0, they will have a nice eight day rest before hosting Wyoming at home who has little offensive identity even though former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave Christensen takes over the helm as new coach. Missouri has used Colorado as its punching bag the past two years but the Wyoming offense won't resemble Chase Coffman, Chase Daniel, Derrick Washington and Jeremy Maclin. Buffs need to win this one big. Prediction: W (3-0)
Oct 1^st - @West Virginia Mountaineers: This is a coin toss game. Both teams have 12 days to prepare with West Virginia coming off a tough game at Auburn the week before. West Virginia will be favored by 3 - 7 points so this is certainly a winnable game but on a Thursday night in Morgantown with the Buffs past lack of success on the road, I see a 3 - 1 start. Ask me again after week 2. Prediction: L (3-1)
Oct 10^th - @ Texas Longhorns: There are two "more than likely" road losses on the schedule which makes Dan Hawkins' "10 win expectation, not a guarantee" phrase possible. This is one of those games. Prediction: L (3-2)
Oct 17^th - Kansas Jayhawks: The Buffs should have three home games circled this year; Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. Three games that will dictate the degree of success in 2009. Win 2 or 3 of these games, expect Colorado football to be playing in strong bowl game. Lose all three, Colorado may once again be home for the holidays once again. Kansas QB Todd Reesing has been a Buff killer and the Jayhawks are expected to be a top 25 team when it is all said and done. Kansas has to replace some offensive linemen and linebackers so the Buffs should be in the game. Prediction: L (3-3)
Oct 24^th - @ Kansas St. Wildcats: Coming off three losses, this is a trap game that should be a Buff win. At 3 - 3, this game's outcome could determine if CU goes on to a winning record in the last half of the season or underachieves. If this is truly the year that we see changes in Boulder, Dan Hawkins' team should go into Manhattan and win. Since it is the offseason, let's be optimistic. Prediction: W (4-3)
Oct 31^st - Missouri Tigers: Halloween day in Boulder should be a wild scene. Mizzou could come into this game with a 3 - 4 record with both teams will have a lot riding on the game. The Buffs will have revenge on their mind after being utterly embarrassed the past two years losing by a combined score of 113 - 10. Many of the pieces from those two games are gone from Columbia and while Missouri fans are pushing the "Blaine Gabbert for Heisman" campaign already, this is the year for revenge. And one other thing, Missouri returns the fewest starters from a year ago in the Big 12 along with Nebraska Prediction: W (5-3)
Nov 7^th - Texas A&M Aggies: I believe most Colorado fans would take 5 - 3 at this point in the year considering Texas A&M and Iowa State are still on the schedule with Nebraska being an important swing game. Most will admit Colorado should have beaten A&M a year ago in College Station outplaying them for all but 5 or so minutes of that game. At home in Folsom, the Buffs should be on a roll coming off two wins. Could be a let down candidate if they don't respond after a big Missouri victory but this team is more experienced than prior teams. Prediction: W (6-3)
Nov 14^th - @ Iowa St. Cyclones: Last time the Buffs went to Ames, they laid an egg which once again makes predicting any road games as a win a risky prospect. Trust me, Buff fans won't be laying a lot of action on the first road game to Toledo. Hawkins will remind his team of how poorly they played a year ago at Folsom and the bad loss two years ago. Colorado has a chance to win four in a row heading into the last two weeks of the season. Prediction: W (7-3)
Nov 19^th - @ Oklahoma St. Cowboys: Even if the Buffs did have a full week's rest, this would be a loss but on the road with a short week against a top 10 contender, the Buffs' win streak ends here. Prediction: L (7-4)
Nov 27^th - Nebraska Cornhuskers: Eight wins sounds like paradise with the potential for nine in a bowl game. The Buffs will get more rest than the Huskers due to playing on a Thursday night against Oklahoma State and the Huskers have to travel to Boulder. Right now, this game is a toss-up but it is hard for me to see this Buffs team finishing with eight wins and it is equally hard to see the Huskers as a top 25 team. That being said, seven wins was my number for the Buffs all along. Eight is do-able as you can tell, nine is a stretch. You can also make a case for five or six wins. Prediction: L (7-5)

SB NATION BIG 12 BLOGGER'S ROUNDTABLE Q&A

1) Predicted Finish

Big 12 North

Kansas

Nebraska

Colorado

Missouri

Kansas State

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Oklahoma

Texas

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Texas Tech

Texas A&M

2) Who wins the Big 12 North?

~~Colorado Buffaloes Nebraska Cornhuskers~~ The Kansas Jayhawks...who knows, its wide open? Go get'em Buffs!

3) Who wins the Big 12 South?

The Oklahoma Sooners

4) How many Big 12 teams will be bowl eligible?

7 - Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State

5) Which conference team do you think will show the most improvement from last season (in record only)?

Baylor

6) Who is your Non-QB conference player of the year?

DL Gerald McCoy

7) Do you believe any Big 12 coaches will be gone (fired or hired elsewhere) after this season?

The ones I could see happening are Coach Hawk or Mike Gundy (but only with 5 wins or less and that won't happen for either.

8) What would you prefer as the Big 12's 3rd "best" bowl game? The Holiday or Alamo Bowl?

Holiday - San Diego is better than San Antonio in every way imaginable

9) Better D-Lineman, Suh or McCoy?

Gerald McCoy

10) Better Wide Receiver, Bryant or Briscoe?

Dez Bryant

11) Predict the worst non-conference loss (an upset) that the Big 12 will suffer.

Have to say Nevada upsetting Mizzou.

12) Predict the MNC participants and champion.

Florida def. Penn State (an embarrassment of a schedule)

Poll

What is your regular season win prediction for the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009?

10 wins +: Gotta go with Coach Hawkins, he set the bar, anything less would be a disappointment

18 votes

8 - 9 wins: very solid year, outside chance at the Big 12 North, top tier bowl game

185 votes

7 wins: an improvement, still too many holes to challenge for a North title but still bowling

86 votes

6 wins: squeak into a bowl game but with an empty feeling, still have a ways to go to be competitive each week

18 votes

5 or less wins: not enough playmakers, too many holes, more of the same in Boulder. 2010 here we come

9 votes

316 votes | Poll has closed