SB Nation - B.J. Beatty

Saturday Buff Bites - Next Weekend Should Be Interesting

irish1611 — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:21:35 -0000

Woelk: Close may not be enough to change CU equation - Boulder Daily Camera

Today, however, the equation remains virtually the same as it was 24 hours ago. A head coach in his fourth season with twice as many losses as victories to his credit and a 3-8 record heading into the last game of the year. A young team with talent and promise, but one that has been unable to produce anything remotely resembling consistency as the program lurches toward its fourth consecutive losing season. As a friend of mine remarked after Thursday night's game, the Buffs played valiantly. They played with heart — but they did not play (or coach) smart. But today, a decision to retain Hawkins for another season would be a gamble that the mistakes and stumbles that became the calling card of this year's team could somehow be eliminated. That's a gamble I'm not convinced CU's administrators are willing to make — even if making a change is a decision that will cost millions. What Thursday night displayed once again is what CU fans have seen for much of this season. These Buffs are not a team bereft of talent. Whoever roams CU's sidelines next year will not be working with a bare cupboard.

Kiszla: Throw Hawkins to the Bohn fire - The Denver Post

The love is gone. There is nothing left for Dan Hawkins to do except say goodbye, and nowhere for him to go except out the door. A good man has failed as football coach of the Buffaloes. The only logical choice Colorado athletic director Mike Bohn has now? Fire Hawkins.

What We Learned: Hawkins back on the hot seat - Dave Curtis - College Football - Sporting News
Great point about the last four possessions of the game:

The buzz about Dan Hawkins getting dismissed (and bought out) at Colorado grew hot not because the Buffs lost by three on the road to a ranked team Thursday night. The bad vibes are back because of how things went down. Colorado's final four offensive possessions ended with a missed 49-yard field goal, a turnover on downs (incomplete pass on fourth-and-2 at the Oklahoma State 28), a fumble near midfield and a punt with 2:45 remaining. The Buffs either led by four or trailed by three points on each occasion yet ended with another loss, sending Hawkins' record at CU to 16-32 (and 2-20 on the road).

Regents likely to support buyout if CU fires Hawkins - Boulder Daily Camera

Several members of the Colorado Board of Regents said Friday they would be willing to approve a buyout for football coach Dan Hawkins if chancellor Phil DiStefano and athletic director Mike Bohn decide firing the fourth-year coach is the right move. Republican Regent Tom Lucero said while he wouldn`t vote against a buyout that could cost nearly $3.5 million, he believes Hawkins deserves at least one more year to build the program he envisioned when he came to CU in December of 2005 to replace former coach Gary Barnett, who was fired. "I`m a huge fan of Dan Hawkins and I am of the opinion that the guy needs at least one more year. Plain and simple," Lucero said.

Bohn mum on Hawk - The Denver Post

"Evaluation is always ongoing," Bohn said Friday, when asked about Hawkins' job status. Speculation that Hawkins is on his way out is rampant. Rumors that he has agreed to a buyout are inaccurate, Bohn said. The athletic director emphasized he has not made a decision on whether Hawkins will be retained. It would cost Colorado approximately $3.1 million to buy out Hawkins' contract. Asked if his cash- strapped athletic department can pay for that, Bohn said it was premature to address specifics of a buyout because no decision on Hawkins' future has been made. In the past, Bohn has used the words "doable but challenging" when talking in general terms about securing the resources to cover such a settlement. Bohn is scheduled to leave this morning for a flight to Hawaii, where he will join the CU men's basketball team for the Maui Invitational. He is scheduled to return to Boulder on Thanksgiving, a day before the football season finale. Bohn reiterated that no decision will be announced while he is out of town. "I can guarantee you that," he said.

CU issues no official word on Hawkins’ future - The Longmont Times-Call

Athletic director Mike Bohn said once again, following Thursday’s 31-28 loss at Oklahoma State, that no decision has been made on the coaching situation and no timeline exists for one. Bohn said he’ll leave today for Maui to watch the Buffs men’s basketball team play Monday through Wednesday. Quarterback Tyler Hansen raised some eyebrows Thursday when he said, "We always get told that coach Hawkins is solid right now. His job is pretty certain, and he’s going to be here." But Bohn declined to say anything about Hansen’s comment, only reiterating that there’s no timeline for a decision.

Big plays cost CU defense again - Boulder Daily Camera
Didn't even notice:

Wide receiver Andre Simmons made his first start but did not make a catch

Kiesau`s decision could save CU cash - Boulder Daily Camera

Athletic director Mike Bohn would have been considering two buyouts if one of Dan Hawkins` assistant coaches had made a different decision two years ago. Offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau was offered one of six multi-year contracts available at the school as an enticement to remain in Boulder instead of taking a job with Oregon, sources confirmed to the Camera. Kiesau, who was wide receivers coach at the time, opted not to accept the multi-year deal because, like every other multi-year contract at the school, it contained a buyout clause requiring him to pay CU money if he wanted to leave before it expired. Kiesau said he didn`t want to comment on the subject when asked about it recently. Kiesau makes $217,776 annually, and likely would have been owed that sum times the number of years remaining on his contract if CU decided to part ways with the entire coaching staff at the end of the season.

Thumb doesn’t stop Colorado’s Hansen - The Longmont Times-Call
Considering the defense was missing two of their best players, they did a pretty good job against Oklahoma State:

CU linebackers Jeff Smart (pinched nerve in his neck) and B.J. Beatty (concussion) did not play. Beatty did not make the trip. Smart was on the sideline, but not in uniform. Stewart suffered a shoulder bruise and is probable for Nebraska. Center Keenan Stevens suffered a sprained ankle and is also probable. Hansen said he thinks he might have sprained ligaments in his right thumb, which is the same one he broke during the spring game last April. He hit it on a helmet Thursday night in the second quarter.

Who's hot and who's not across the Big 12 - Big 12 Blog - ESPN

Not: Dan Hawkins: The Colorado coach’s record is 2-19 in games played at opponent's stadiums since starting his tenure with the Buffaloes in 2006.

Colorado's Tyler Hansen: "It’s real disappointing we were that close." | NewsOK.com

→Colorado running back Brian Lockridge on his kickoff return for a touchdown "I had some great blockers, I just ran as fast as I can and made a play on the kicker. I owed one to the team and it was a pivotal time in the game, and that’s what we needed in a response to their score. I was grateful to give the team a score, but it didn’t end quite the way we wanted it to."

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

Browse more photos »

Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

---

Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

A Statistical Look - Colorado Buffaloes vs. Texas Longhorns

irish1611 — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 16:07:34 -0000


	National	Conf	Actual	Category	Actual	Conf	National
Advantage	Rank	Rank	Actual	Category	Actual	Rank	Rank
Texas	109	11	93.75	Rushing Offense	207.3	4	21
Texas	109	12	103.2	Passing Efficiency	149.6	7	28
Texas	27	6	261.3	Passing Offense	314	3	9
Texas	77	12	355	Total Offense	521.3	2	4
Texas	71	10	25.75	Scoring Offense	49.5	1	1
Texas	91	12	2.5	Sacks Allowed	1	4	17
Colorado	54	6	207.3	Pass Defense	212.3	7	65
Texas	111	12	201.5	Rushing Defense	47.25	1	2
Texas	106	12	148.1	Pass Efficiency Defense	97.96	3	18
Texas	102	12	408.8	Total Defense	259.5	2	11
Texas	86	12	28	Scoring Defense	15.25	4	19
Texas	T-30	6	2.5	Sacks	3	4	11
Texas	60	10	5.75	Tackles For Loss	8	2	8
Texas	T-78	9	-0.25	Turnover Margin	0.75	5	T-36
Colorado	70	9	35.67	Net Punting	35.07	10	78
Texas	106	12	3.82	Punt Returns	13.92	2	22
Texas	30	5	25.05	Kickoff Returns	37.25	1	2

Not much to say here. The 102nd ranked defense (against West Virginia, Colorado State, Toledo and Wyoming) will play the top scoring offense in the country today. If the Buffs have any chance, that 102nd ranked defense will have to play more like they did in two consecutive drives in the third quarter against West Virginia, probably there two best defensive outputs of the year. Game was on the line still, the Buffs defense came out and got positive plays on first down, stopped the run and was able to apply pressure on Jarrett Brown in passing situations. It won't be as easy today but once again, putting Texas into second and long situations to start drives and then getting solid corner back play on passing situations with a healthy dose of Marcus Burton and B.J. Beatty from the linebacker position is crucial. Sounding like a broken record, Ron Colllins' unit needs to limit the big play. The numbers are astonishing: According to Dave Plati of the Colorado SID, CU has allowed 1,635 yards in its first four games, on 260 plays (6.3 per); that includes 23 plays of 20 yards or more (13 pass/10 rush), 11 of those for 40 or more. Those 23 plays have accounted for a whopping 962 yards; when adding in 18 other plays of 10 yards or more, the count rises to 1,205 yards. It translates to 16 percent of the opponent plays (41 of 260) having accounted for 74 percent of the yards.

The Buffs certainly need more defensive possessions like these two:

West Virginia at 10:02		COLO	WVU
1st and 10 at WVU 23	Tavon Austin rush for 4 yards to the WVirg 27.	17	21
2nd and 6 at WVU 27	Noel Devine rush for 2 yards to the WVirg 29.
3rd and 4 at WVU 29	Brown sacked by Chap Brown and Burton for a loss of 16
4th and 20 at WVU 13	Scott Kozlowski punt for 55 yards
DRIVE TOTALS: WVirg drive: 3 plays -10 yards, 02:07 WVirg PUNT

West Virginia at 4:31		COLO	WVU
1st and 10 at WVU 47	Jarrett Brown pass incomplete to Tavon Austin.	17	21
2nd and 10 at WVU 47	Jarrett Brown sacked by Marcus Burton for a loss of 12
3rd and 22 at WVU 35	Jarrett Brown sacked by Chapelle Brown for a loss of 16
4th and 38 at WVU 19	Scott Kozlowski punt for 47 yards
DRIVE TOTALS: WVirg drive: 3 plays -28 yards, 01:50 WVirg PUNT

Offensive look for the Buffs after the jump...

I have looked for trends for this Colorado offense and it is hard to tie any sequences together that lead to success. But back to the big play talk we had for the defense, the offense has had two plays over forty yards and those plays belong to WR Andre Simmons and WR Anthony Wright. Two players who Buff fans are dying to see on the field more. Coach Eric Kiesau indicated this week that Anthony Wright is progressing and should hopefully receive more opportunities with the undertone that Andre Simmons has not really done enough in practice to suggest that he is ready to go at a high level. If they do decide to give Anthony Wright some time at receiver today and Markques Simas can get some featured time away from Scotty McKniight, the Buffs may be starting to get that receiver balance Buff fans have been callling for since the Colorado State game.

A big problem with this offense, in my opinion, is the ability to stretch the opposition's defense. Right now you have a defense that is not playing in a back peddle. They are sitting in a 15 yard box and only moving forward not backword. I don't care who you are, when your team lacks any threat to go beyond the 15 yard level, your offense will be ranked dead last in the Big 12. Throw a fast and aggressive Texas' defense at the Buffs' offense and that could be big trouble if the Buffs don't find a way to get those safeties and cornerbacks in a back peddle. Texas is going to do what every team in the Big 12 is going to do to the Buffs this year: make Cody Hawkins beat them. Mack Brown has made it clear in his press conferences this week that they are heavily focused on the Colorado running game. The only way Colorado's offense has success today is if they come out and can rattle of a few big plays and loosen the defense. A five yard offensive game plan early will lead to a big Texas rout.

The Buffs have nothing to lose. Everyone expects the score to be around 55 to 14. Take your shots early and try to make the Texas defense adjust and allow your offense to operate in some space.

A Statistical Look: Colorado Buffaloes vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

irish1611 — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 15:00:23 -0000

Back by popular demand, here is a statistical look at the upcoming game against West Virginia. Not pretty!

Advantage

	National	Conf	Actual	Category	Actual	Conf	National
	Rank	Rank	Actual	Category	Actual	Rank	Rank
West Virginia	111	11	91.67	Rushing Offense	192.33	2	34
West Virginia	37	8	251	Passing Offense	293	2	15
West Virginia	103	12	105.75	Passing Efficiency	148.33	4	33
West Virginia	84	12	342.67	Total Offense	485.33	1	10
West Virginia	69	10	26.33	Scoring Offense	32.67	4	35
West Virginia	103	12	183	Rushing Defense	83.67	3	14
Colorado	77	9	227	Pass Defense	228.33	5	81
West Virginia	100	12	144.32	Pass Efficiency Defense	119.2	4	56
West Virginia	101	12	410	Total Defense	312	4	35
Colorado	77	12	25.67	Scoring Defense	27	7	83
Colorado	38	7	37.4	Net Punting	36.38	6	51
West Virginia	97	12	4.29	Punt Returns	9.43	3	60
Colorado	35	5	24.87	Kickoff Returns	22.2	5	54
Colorado	89	12	-0.67	Turnover Margin	-2.33	8	116
West Virginia	40	8	2.33	Sacks	3	3	12
West Virginia	T-79	10	5	Tackles For Loss	7	4	25
West Virginia	96	12	2.67	Sacks Allowed	1	3	24

Colorado under Dan Hawkins is 2 - 2 after a bye. West Virginia is 5 - 2 after a bye since 2006. Colorado is 1 - 5 on road at night since Hawkins arrival while West Virginia is 5 - 2 at home at night since 2006. West Virginia's overall home record since 2006 is 18 - 3.

West Virginia, as expected, has the advantage on paper. A few glimmers of hope are attached to the turnover margin and scoring defense. Aided by the Wyoming shut out last week, Colorado's scoring defense improved drastically from a few weeks ago. West Virginia's defense has given up 27 points a game - 20 to Liberty, 20 to Eastern Carolina and 41 to Auburn. This defense has been scored on this year.

The final piece of hope just looking at the stats is the turnover margin. Last week, West Virginia turned the ball over six times to an opportunistic Auburn team. If the Buffs want to win their first road game in two years and the third total since Dan Hawkins has been head coach, Colorado's defense needs to play aggressive and force turnovers. West Virginia has protected Jarrett Brown well, only giving up one sack on average a game. That being said, Colorado will have to walk the fine line of committing extra players for a pass rush while avoiding the big play from RB Noel Devine and Brown. If Colorado's defense contains the West Virginia offense tomorrow, it will be because the secondary. Defensive coordinator Ron Collins needs to feel confident that he can allow the linebackers to roam around the line of scrimmage to stop Devine and pressure Brown. That means leaving the safeties and corners on an island, keeping big plays to a minimum. This would be a great time to see Jimmy Smith, Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown, Ben Burney, Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins to make big plays, force a few turnovers and be consistent.

Any strong play from the defensive line is a bonus but I expect West Virginia to try and get them on skates early with a heavy dose of Devine. It will be key for the defensive line fill the gaps and play strong assignment football. A big part of being successful against the zone-read is to occupy your gaps and fill areas so the linebackers can make plays at the point of attack. If the defensive line plays out of position tomorrow it could be a very long day.

If the defense can get Brown and the West Virginia offense off the field the first few series and all the Buffs' running game to get in a rhythm, who knows what can happen. Colorado needs to play a perfect game on the road, get turnovers and find a way to have more big plays than West Virginia.

Players stats after the jump. Check back later for more discussion on the offense and the keys to the game.

Conf	National	Actual	Player	Category	Player	Actual	National	Conf
Rank	Rank	Actual	Player	Category	Player	Actual	Rank	Rank
		85.5	Rodney Stewart	Rushing	Noel Devine	106.67	16	2
12		105.74	Cody Hawkins	Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game)	Jarrett Brown	151.16	28	4
7	T-49	229.33	Cody Hawkins	Total Offense	Jarrett Brown	335.33	6	1
5	T-22	6.67	Scotty McKnight	Receptions Per Game	Jock Sanders	9.67	3	1
9	48	75.67	Scotty McKnight	Receiving Yards Per Game	Jock Sanders	103	T-16	3
T-5	T-72	0.33	Benjamin Burney	Interceptions	Robert Sands	0.33	T-72	T-6
12	71	4.29	Jason Espinoza	Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Jock Sanders	14.75	22	1
		26.3	Darrell Scott	Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Mark Rodgers	26.6	32	3
21		6.33	Aric Goodman	Scoring	Noel Devine	10	T-21	3
23		76.33	Scotty McKnight	All-Purpose Runners	Noel Devine	142	32	2
T-10	T-58	0.67	B.J. Beatty	Sacks	Julian Miller	0.83	T-27	4
T-7	T-61	8.67	Jeff Smart	Tackles	Jt Thomas	7.33		6
		6.33	Cha'pelle Brown		Brandon Hogan	6.67		10
		6	Jimmy Smith		Pat Lazear	5		T-25
T-16		1	B.J. Beatty	Tackles For Loss	Jt Thomas	1.5	T-27	3
					Julian Miller	1.33	T-52	5
					Pat Lazear	1.17	T-73	8

Defense Sparks Buffs, Get First Win of 2009

irish1611 — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 16:31:11 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

2 months ago: Colorado tailback Rodney Stewart, center, is congratulated after his touchdown run by fullback Jake Behrens, left, and tight end Riar Geer during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Wyoming in Boulder, Colo., on Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Needing a win more than ever, the Colorado Buffaloes delivered. It is one we should definitely enjoy, it has been a turmoil filled start and finally being able to celebrate a Buffs' win wherever you were watching the game was a relief. It wasn't the prettiest of victories but there are certainly a few takeaways from this game that hopefully continue to improve as the year goes on.

The defense for the most part played fantastic. You must first start with the energy level that the team displayed in the early going. Players were ready to go and played with little apprehension, something we saw the last two weeks that made the defense look slow and confused. Clearly, the goal today was bring pressure from the linebacker spot. The Buffs also made a very strategic move to put CB Ben Burney at the safety spot, instantly adding some experience and more leadership to the team while keeping two of their best players on the field in CB Cha'pelle Brown and CB Jimmy Smith. Defensive coordinator Ron Collins said that the eleven best players will play this offseason and getting more experience back in the safety spot was a step in that direction. Burney looked like another linebacker out there as he was often around the ball, something we can't say about the performance of the safety position the last few weeks.

LB B.J. Beatty finally played in a role that we expected him to be in this year as a replacement for last year's sack leader LB Brad Jones. One of the keys to the game was playing in the Wyoming backfield and Beatty led the charge, sacking the quarterback twice and causing much more havoc as a rush end than anyone has all year. Finding a constant pressure guy is important going forward and for the Buffs to be successful for remainder of the season, B.J. Beatty will have to continue to play as he did today. Defensive linemen Marquez Herrod and Curtis Cunningham also played well. Herrod had four tackles and a sack while Cunningham was second on the team in tackles with six and also had a sack. Whenever their was push in the backfield, numbers 90 and 68 were usually the instigators. Also, great to see LB Jon Major get in and make some plays on the defense. After battling back from an injury a year ago, Major had four tackles.

In total, Colorado's defense held the Dave Christensen-led offense to a feeble 3.2 yards a play, 0-2 on fourth down, 4 - 18 on third down, 24 minutes of possession, 13 first downs and only 230 total yards. That's a big improvement over the week before as Toledo gained 624 yards on the ground and averaged 9.9 per play. Of course, this was a bad offense in Wyoming that hasn't scored a touchdown since third quarter of the Weber State game, which was a full two games and a quarter ago. Wyoming has little in terms of playmakers but considering the defense's play the first two weeks, credit must be given to Ron Collins and the defensive staff for dialing up a good game plan that was successful. Collins will still need to get this unit to improve as the schedule now gets exponentially tougher with West Virginia, Texas and Kansas all down the pipeline. Not to scare Buff fans but those three teams are ranked 12th, 13th and 3rd in the nation in total offense, all averaging over 482 yards of total offense. The real test for this defense will start against West Virginia.

But Saturday was a start for the defense. Great move to get Burney on the field and establishing some confidence in Beatty to get things done in the opponents backfield. The Buffs didn't allow the big play and the corner back play looked much more settled. Again, it was against the 99th ranked offense but we will take it.

As for the offense, it is still very much a work in progress. On a positive note, the return of RB Rodney Stewart, although not entirely healthy, proved beneficial. Although only averaging 4.0 yards a carry, Stewart was a workhorse scoring twice.

The offense also did it's job, scoring first just one minute and thirty seconds into the game, giving the Buffs their first lead of the year and allowing the defense to play with the lead, something that hasn't happened this year. The offense held the ball for over 35 minutes by running the ball 45 times. WR Scotty McKnight continues to be the the main target that Cody Hawkins looks for and the main target offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau works around. McKnight caught five balls for 77 yards, good for 15.4 per reception. Through the first three games of the year, McKnight already has 20 catches for 227 yards. If he continues on this pace, McKnight will have an 80 catch year which will destroy his 46 catch total of a year ago.

The Buffs only allowed one sack and just one turnover, improvements over the first two games.

But this offense still lacks any threat of explosiveness. Fast and atheltic defenses, which the Buffs will be playing in the immediate future, are going to have a field day if Colorado cannot loosen up the defense with some ability to go down field. WR Markques Simas supposedly started but rarely received a look in the passing game. WR Andre Simmons was no where to be found as was WR Anthony Wright. The only receiver to have a double-digit yards/catch average yesterday was McKnight. In a game that the Buffs had a comfortable lead early, I was disappointed that the Buffs didn't try to incorporate Simas, Simmons and Wright in the offense more. It is time to see what these players will do on the field. A slant route, a fade route, a bubble screen...anything to get them in the rhythm of the offense.

Colorado has three receivers in Simas, Simmons and Wright that can have the playmaking potential that is much needed for the rest of the year. The Buffs coaching staff has 12 days before they head to Morgantown to play West Virginia. The offense needs a similar make over like defense showed against Wyoming and that change is a commitment to becoming an offense that can stretch the field and add a little imagination to a stagnant unit.

The defense showed some explosiveness, the offense needs to follow suit for the Buffs to have any success with the remainder of the schedule. Colorado needs more consistency from Cody Hawkins, he needs to capitalize and make a few passes downfield that will change the game. Still too many mental lapses and missed opportunities. The Buffs' offense needs it's players to make plays and it's coaches to put them in a position to be successful.

At this point, I speak for most Buff fans in that a win is a win and we will take it any way. This team still has a lot of issues but let's enjoy this one for the time being.

Time to Witness Dominance: Keys to the Game and Predictions

irish1611 — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 14:10:28 -0000

This has been one of the more difficult pre-game write-ups to begin. I have re-wrote at least five times to try and describe the excitement of the season opener with a fair blend of urgency that the program must exhibit starting today. At first, I went at the post in an overly positive way but that didn't exhibit all of the feelings. Then, I added some negatives but who wants to be negative when you haven't even played a game yet. So I decided on keeping it simple, keeping it short and saying little other than what should be expected today.

Most Colorado Buffalo fans have a few different feelings going through their system this morning. Excitement is surely one of them, anticipation to see the black and gold run out of that tunnel is most certainly there, but for me, the overwhelming feeling is that desire to bear witness of something that we haven't seen in the past. That is where the nervous feeling comes from this Sunday morning.

It is time to bear witness to a team that can come out and dominate. Not necessarily dominant on the scoreboard with a forty point win but dominate physically, dominate by being the better coached team, dominate on special teams, dominate the halftime adjustments, dominate in preparation and dominate by being the more energized team. Basically, see a discernable difference over the team the Colorado State Rams put on the field today but also the Colorado teams that we have seen trot out the past three years.

Just flat out dominant in the detailed aspects of the game.

The question is, are the Buffs ready to dominate?

Yes, if for no other reason than they better be. Will they? We will see soon enough.

Time to get things done and it starts today against the Rams.

Short, simple and easy, nothing but what is now the defined motto for the Buffs on the Ralphie Report: "Dominate and No Excuses." I like it better than "10 wins and no excuses" anyway.

Now on to the Keys of the Game & The Ralphie Report's 2009 first game predictions.

Stick it to Stucker
The smell of fresh meat is in the air and it's coming from Colorado St. Rams' quarterback Grant Stucker. Stucker will be making his first start against the Colorado Buffaloes today at Folsom Field in front of a close to capacity crowd. What does that mean? Be aggressive & creative in your attempts to get to rattle Stucker. Make his life miserable all day long. Last year, the Buffs sacked first time starter Billy Farris five times and never let him get settled in the pocket. The Buffs went on to win by three touchdowns. It has been well documented that the Rams have a very experienced offensive line but I look for the Buffs to have prepared extremely well in creating mismatches and blitzes that will confuse CSU upfront to get to Stucker. Look for B.J. Beatty, Marcus Burton and Doug Rippy to lead the charge from the linebacker spot in constantly applying pressure on the Rams.

Clearly, Colorado State feels they have a few matchups that they can exploit the Buffs at and one is upfront. Nothing will dishearten the Rams more than showing them early that they don't have the advantage there and nothing will be a bigger detriment to the Buffs chance at victory today than letting Stucker get comfortable in the pocket and throw to his talented receivers.

Special Teams
If the Buffs are going to be a bowl team in 2009, drastic improvement in the specialties play must occur. Colorado cannot give the Rams points or field position in the special teams game. This goes back to the statement of dominance and being mentally tough football team. Special teams is a "want to", not a "have to" assignment for a good football team and its players. You have to have an attitude to play special teams and that attitude wasn't there a year ago. Colorado has better depth and talent than Colorado State and that should show through today in this aspect of the game.

Finish in the Red Zone
Based on the last seasons results, Colorado fans hope to not see a field goal attempted today and because of that, efficiency is crucial in the red zone. Substitute field goal attempts with strong execution for touchdowns.

Playmaking ability
In 2008, it seemed the Buffs had zero playmakers on the field. Maybe they were all too young but I believe it was the fault of the coaching staff in not getting the right scheme offensively to feature talent. Coach Eric Kiesau has led the charge back to a more traditional pro-style offense but he will be tasked today with finding mismatches and featuring players that can be difference makers. Whether it is RB Brian Lockridge in the slot, WR Andre Simmons in a deep ball package scenario, RB Rodney Stewart in the screen game, RB Darrell Scott on the edge or one of the tight ends making an impact across the middle, it is time to have a plan to get these players in favorable situations; something that did not exist a year ago.

On the flip side, Colorado matches up extremely well against and the Rams two best playmakers in WR Rashaun Greer and WR Dion Morton. I expect corners Jimmy Smith, Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown and Ben Burney to compete successfully against the duo of Morton and Greer especially with the graduation of TE Kory Sperry. The Buffs defense cannot let these two receivers beat them. Limit the big plays and Colorado should come out victorious.

Win the Turnover Battle
Cody Hawkins or Tyler Hansen cannot let Grant Stucker outplay them in this category. Be smart with the football.

Make the Rams Come From Behind
Colorado should not be considered a prolific offense yet so it needs help from the defense and has to exhibit precision when it has the ball. If the Rams get up on the Buffs, it might be a recipe for disaster if Colorado needs to rely on an unproven group of receivers to make plays. The CU defense has to be stout in the first few drives of the season, let the Colorado offense get in a rhythm and score a few points. Start well and the Buffs will be in a strong position to win the game.

Prediction Time:

Short, simple and straight to the point just like our motto: 28 - 13. Give us your prediction too!

Message to the fans: get up, make some noise and get it started off right!

Join us for the Live Game Thread during the game today. Go Buffs, Beat the Rams!

Poll

What is your prediction for today's game?

Buffs win big, easily cover the spread of 11 points

92 votes

I think the oddsmakers have this one pegged, put me down for around 11 points

35 votes

It's a rivalry game and is usally pretty close. The Buffs win but not in convincing fashion

30 votes

Rams pull the upset, send Buffs into an early tail spin

52 votes

209 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Colorado Buffaloes Team Capsule

irish1611 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 08:36:59 -0000

If the Buffs are to realize their goals for 2009, Cody Hawkins' and the entire offenses' performance much improve from their 95th total offense ranking a year ago.

View full size photo »

Coach: Dan Hawkins enters his third season at Colorado (13-24, 0 - 1 in postseason).
Coaching Changes: Offensive Coordinator Eric Kiesau (replaces Mark Helfrich - Oregon), Offensive Line Coach Denver Johnson (replaces Jeff Grimes - Auburn), Defensive Consultant/Linebackers Bob Foster added to roster, Dan Hawkins to coach Wide Receivers.
2008 Record: 5-7 overall, 2-6 in Big 12
Players Returning with '08 Starts:
- Offense: 15 - WR Scotty McKnight, LT Nate Solder, LG Blake Behrens, RT Matthew Bahr, TE Riar Geer, TE Ryan Deehan, QB Cody Hawkins, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Rodney Stewart, RB Demetrius Sumler, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Darrell Scott, FB Jack Behrens, OG Ryan Miller, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner.
  - 64% (85 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Defense: 9 - DE Marquez Herrod, LB Jeff Smart, LB Shaun Mohler, CB Cha'pelle Brown, S Anthony Perkins, S Patrick Mahnke, CB Jimmy Smith, CB Jalil Brown, LB Michael Sipili
  - 39% (51 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Special teams: 2 - P Matt DiLallo, PK Aric Goodman.
Key Positions to Replace From 2008 - Defensive Line, Center, Safety
Key Losses from 2008: LB Brad Jones, S Ryan Walters, DT George Hypolite, DT Brandon Nicolas, C Daniel Sanders, OG Devin Head.
Newcomers Who Might See Time in 2009: DE Nick Kasa, DT Nate Bonsu, LB Forrest West, WR Jarrod Darden, WR Will Jefferson, WR Terdema Ussery, WR Andre Simmons, K Zach Grossnickle.

OFFENSE

2008 OFFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Offense: 86^th overall, 10^th in Big 12 / Passing Offense: 81^st overall, 11^th in Big 12 / Total Offense: 95^th overall, 12^th in Big 12 / Scoring Offense: 100^th overall, 12^th in Big 12.

The 2008 season was an offensive performance to forget. A rash of injuries, inexperienced players at important positions and a lack of a consistent identity spelt trouble for the Colorado Buffaloes. With the 2009 season just around the corner, a more experienced unit overall plus a healthy group of linemen up front has many hoping that the Buffs will reverse the lackluster offensive performance of the past few years. That being said, there are still plenty of question marks that still need to be answered.

the rest of the offensive, defensive, Q&A and win/loss predictions after the jump....

NEW FACES BRINGS NEW SCHEMES: One of the headlines coming into the 2009 season was the changes to the offensive staff. Joining the Colorado Buffaloes this offseason was offensive line coach Denver Johnson, who previously held the Illinois State head coaching job. Replacing Jeff Grimes, Johnson has seemed to endear himself to the fan base, preaching to bring back a more smash mouth style of football, playing on the opposition's side of the ball and putting the five linemen on the field. Such was displayed with Johnson's decision to move Ryan Miller to guard to make way for OT Blake Behrens. Johnson inherits a unit with no seniors but full of talent and a reason to be optimistic about the program's future. If Johnson can quickly& successfully implement his system with this young but relatively experienced offensive line, Buff fans should brace for a much improved offensive performance in 2009. The good news for the new coach is, unlike last year, his unit looks much healthier. Back from injury/off the field issues is Miller, OG Ethan Adkins, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner (mid season return expected) and C Mike Iltis; all of whom will be battling for a starting spot.

Their was also a shake up at the top with former wide receivers and assistant head coach, Eric Kiesau, taking over as offensive coordinator for Mark Helfrich. The season opener against Colorado State will mark the first game which Eric Kiesau has owned the game plan and called the plays on game day. Last season, the Buffs failed to establish any sort of identity, attempting to run the spread with a youthful, injured team that lacked game changing playmakers. Kiesau has said to want to bring back a more "pro-style" offense that allows for more power football, the use of tight ends and a progression based passing game, three traits that bode well for the strengths of CU's offense.

Head coach Dan Hawkins will take over the wide receiver coaching duties replacing Kiesau. Ashley Ambrose will assist Hawkins with the wide receivers and should take over in the near future.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: With WR Markques Simas suspended for the first two games of the season, junior college transfer WR Andre Simmons qualifying status up the air as of Thursday, August 18^th, the lone remaining experienced receiver on the Buffs' roster is Scotty McKnight. Not labeled as an explosive receiver, the Buffs need him to continue to be the steady force and over achieve on his prior two seasons considering the Buffs might not have a lot elsewhere to provide production. Colorado might get some production out of true freshman Will Jefferson, Jarrod Darden and Terdema Ussery but McKnight might be the best and only experienced option in 2009.

In an obvious choice, QB Cody Hawkins, who looks to have the edge in the quarterback race, needs to improve from 2008. The lack of playmakers currently at wide receiver does not bode well for increased production from Hawkins but tight end, running back and offensive line look to be improved from a year ago. If Hawkins can make better decisions and manage the offense through a strong running game, the passing game should open up. The key for Hawkins this year is to increase his completion percentage which was 57.2% in 2008, about 5% below the average junior quarterback % in 2008. Sustaining drives, keeping the defense off the field and converting on third downs will all improve with an increase in completions.

You could go running back here but with a stable of four in the backfield, the production looks to be there. Most Buff fans will look at the offensive line and hope that their health leads to more points. That being said, look to the tackle spots as players who need to play big in 2009. LT Nate Solder and RT Blake Behrens have the inside track at the two starting positions with the prospects of a bright future ahead of them. Solder, the athletically gifted converted tight end, has all the intangibles to be a dominant tackle while Behrens has similar intangibles and great footwork. Solder, due to his position change, and Behrens, due to being a redshirt freshman, will still have growing pains but if they are able to work through those early in the season, the offensive line has the makings to be special.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Hands down this was going to be WR Markques Simas or WR Andre Simmons before the former was suspended two games and the latter is still sitting on the sideline well into week two of fall ball due to admissions issues. The new impact newcomer may be WR Will Jefferson, who was an August 2009 signee. He has seen time with the first and second teams this fall and has impressed the coaches. The safe pick here, though, is Givens, who quickly inserted himself into the starting rotation this spring after gaining 20+ pounds to his true freshman frame. Givens has the ability to grow into a great one.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE OFFENSE: Running Back and Offensive Line. The Buffs boast one of the more loaded backfields in the Big 12 with sophomores Darrell Scott, Rodney Stewart and Brian Lockridge along with junior Demetrius Sumler. Stewart led the Buffs in rushing yards as a freshman and Sumler led the team in rushing touchdowns in 2008. Lockridge, a speedster, returns from injury after a serviceable 2007 freshman campaign and looks to be an added weapon that can be useful as a third down back and in the slot. But Darrell Scott still leads the ranks in the hype category. Supposedly in the best shape of his life at 220 pounds and fully recovered from his 2008 injury-plagued season, Scott looks to take a mulligan in 2009 and become an elite Big 12 back. Still, don't count out the other three, especially Rodney Stewart, who continues to impress. We do know one thing; running backs coach Darian Hagan will play the best man for the job regardless of preseason hype.

The offensive line has all the potential you could ask for to build a team around. They are big, fast, athletic, and will be around for a long time. Nate Solder is the veteran on the offensive line, sort of, checking in as a junior with all other players vying for starting spots coming in as either sophomores or redshirt freshmen. Solder and Ryan Miller lead the way in the size category coming at 6'9" 305 pounds and 6'8" 320 pounds respectively with Solder considered to be one of the most athletic players on the team, running a sub 5.0 second forty this offseason. C Mike Iltis looks to have the center spot locked down replacing Daniel Sanders from a year ago while Givens will man the right tackle spot. The only position that looks to be up for grabs at this point in time is the other guard spot. Ethan Adkins looks to have the upper hand but watch out for Blake Behrens and Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner, once he returns from his ACL injury, to push for time there. This unit is big, athletic, has depth and should be a bright spot in 2009 if they can protect the quarterback.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE OFFENSE: Wide Receiver and Quarterback. Wide receiver takes spots #1 and #2 in our weakness review. With Scotty McKnight the only player active who has caught a pass in a division one football game, the Buffs lack known quantities at the flanker spot. Markques Simas will hopefully return against Wyoming from suspension but with his academic ineligibility in 2008 coupled with the most current infraction, Buff fans should not count on anything. Andre Simmons, if admitted, should not be expected to be ready for the Colorado State game considering he has been sitting on the sideline for the last two weeks. Hopefully the Buffs can have both Simmons and Simas ready by the Wyoming game and can get production from one of the true freshman. Walk-on WR Jason Espinoza will also play a part in the offense. There are just not a lot of options at wide receiver this year.

Playmaking ability still remains a big concern on both sides of the ball. In 2008, the Buffs lacked explosiveness and with former WR Josh Smith transferring to UCLA, many players will be counted on to be a game changer that have not necessarily produced game changing results in the past. If the Buffs want to get to 7, 8 or 9 wins, Darrell Scott, Markques Simas, Rodney Stewart, Brian Lockridge, potentially Andre Simmons, one of the tight ends need to evolve into consistent threats on the offensive side of the ball.

DEFENSE

2008 DEFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Defense: 86^th overall, 9^th in Big 12 / Passing Efficiency Defense: 73rd overall, 5^th in Big 12 / Total Defense: 78^th overall, 4^th in Big 12 / Scoring Defense: 86^th overall, 8^th in Big 12.

2008 provided some surprises on the defensive side of the ball. A senior-laden defensive line was supposed to be the strength of the team with the cornerbacks the weak spot. Roles reversed and relatively speaking, the cornerback play exceeded expectations while the defensive line failed to meet expectations. Often thought of as "solid but not spectacular" last season, the defense is considered to be strong to very strong in the back seven in 2009 but inexperienced up front. Colorado's defense has the opportunity to be a top tier Big 12 squad if they can get solid play from the front four.

ADJUSTING AND MULTIPLE: No one knows really what the Buffs are going to do on defense this year. Dan Hawkins has kept the defense on the far side of the practice field this offseason out of the public eye, shut down practices because of the leaking of defensive formations on the internet and has even brought in Bob Foster, his past mentor at Cal-Davis, to add his defensive knowledge. As noted above and from what observers have seen, the Buffs look like they won't be afraid to mix up the base sets. The lack of known commodities up front might force Colorado to become more multiple, switching between the 3 - 4, 4 - 3 and even 3 - 3 - 5 defensive schemes. Such defensive looks are possible due to some exceptional depth at the linebacker and cornerback spots.

Defensive coordinator Ron Collins has preached this offseason that his goal is to get the 11 best players on the field and that might mean three down linemen. If the Buffs lineup with three, Collins will have to be creative in his blitz packages and cover schemes. Establishing quarterback pressure is the name of the game this year as last year the Buffs ranked 7^th in the conference in sacks, averaging on 2.0 a game.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: The Buffs need to replace 17 ½ sacks which is well over half of their total sack production from a year ago. Most are hoping that LB B.J. Beatty can replace last year's production of LB Brad Jones. Beatty showed, when healthy, that he has a nose for the football. If Colorado opts for a 3 - 4 defense, Beatty figures to play a prominent role as a rush end/stand-up outsider backer similar to what Brad Jones did for the '08 team. Again, with the major concern over who is going to get to the quarterback, players like B.J. Beatty are going to have to produce.

Marcus Burton is another player who is being counted on for a big year. An afterthought last year, Burton has rededicated himself to football and the 260 pound middle linebacker made his presence known this spring. Even though he was the biggest linebacker during offseason testing, Burton still produced the fastest forty time and showed great sideline to sideline range. Burton, considering with inexperience up front, will have a difficult job sifting through offensive linemen and being productive. Burton will have to be the anchor of the defense, especially in the early going of the season as the coaches try to figure out who will produce up front.

CB Jimmy Smith is the final player who needs to have a big year. With two inexperienced safeties in the Colorado secondary and a defensive line that is unproven, pass coverage will be at a premier this season. CB Cha'pelle Brown proved his worth last season. With CB Ben Burney returning from injury and CB Jalil Brown back from a successful 2008 campaign, the Buffs have plenty of depth at the position. But Jimmy Smith has the ability to change the game and shut down a side of the field on his own, making S Patrick Mahnke and S Anthony Perkin's life a lot easier. Smith, the 6'3" 200 pound NFL prototype cornerback, has the ability to be the best corner in the Big 12.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Early money was on DE Nick Kasa and DT Edward Nuckols due to the inexperience on the defensive line but with Kasa partially tearing his MCL and Nuckols failing to academically qualify, the Buffs will have to look elsewhere for immediate help. The most logical choice is now DT Nate Bonsu. The 6'1" 295 pound Allen, Texas product may just be forced into some early action.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE DEFENSE: Linebacker and Cornerback. Ask Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart about how strong the linebacker group is. Mohler and Smart were both starters a year ago and all conference awarded players. This year, they might be battling for one spot; and the Buffs may even add another linebacker position to run the 3 - 4. Marcus Burton impressed this offseason as did Michael Sipili, who will be competing for the middle linebacker job. Throw in the young but physically gifted Douglas Rippy and the potential of B.J. Beatty and this may be the deepest position on the Buffs team. And we didn't even mention Jon Major, a heavily recruited player from Colorado who tore his ACL last season as a true freshman.

A similar story at cornerback with 2007 starter Ben Burney returning to team up with Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith, all of whom started at least one game in 2008. Who starts against Colorado State will be fun to watch.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE DEFENSE: Defensive line, based purely on inexperience, not poor past performance. Gone are three seniors from a year ago and in are unproven players like DT Curtis Cunningham, DE Conrad Obi, DE Marquez Herrod, DT Eugene Goree, DT Tyler Sale, DT Will Pericak, DE Forrest West and DT Nate Bonsu. Nick Kasa may be in the mix after he recovers from the partial MCL tear.

Marquez Herrod will probably be a starter at defensive end but after that, it's anyone's guess. Curtis Cunningham played as a true freshman last season and made a few plays but he is still considered raw.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Last year's special team's performance was abysmal and should be a big point of emphasis this season if the Buffs' plan to be a player in the North. The departure of Josh Smith leaves a hole in the return game and 1,987 all purpose yards lost. The top candidates to fill the return role are Jason Espinoza, Rodney Stewart, Andre Simmons and Darrell Scott. K Aric Goodman returns, but he was just 5 for 14 on field goal attempts last season. The Buffs also return P Matt DiLallo who averaged 40.49 yards/punt last season while splitting time with Tom Suazo.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN AND QUICK HIT PREDICTIONS

Sept 5^th - Colorado St. Rams: The rivalry game is in Boulder, not in Denver, giving the Buffs a home field advantage. CSU will be breaking in a new quarterback and looks to have a weak front seven returning on defense. If CSU can get any quarterback play, it could be a dangerous game but expect the Buffs to load the box on defense. Prediction: W (1-0)
Sept 11^th - @ Toledo Rockets: the proverbial trap game with only five days rest. It is a Friday night game on the road against a team with a new coach; yes, a little scary. Like Colorado State, Toledo returns a lot of offensive line experience. Couple all of that with the dismal road record under Dan Hawkins (only 2 wins in three years) and the Buffs could be in more trouble than we would like to believe. That being said, Colorado has the more talented team and should win by double digits. Prediction: W (2-0)
Sept 19^th - Wyoming Cowboys: If the Buffs can start 2 - 0, they will have a nice eight day rest before hosting Wyoming at home who has little offensive identity even though former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave Christensen takes over the helm as new coach. Missouri has used Colorado as its punching bag the past two years but the Wyoming offense won't resemble Chase Coffman, Chase Daniel, Derrick Washington and Jeremy Maclin. Buffs need to win this one big. Prediction: W (3-0)
Oct 1^st - @West Virginia Mountaineers: This is a coin toss game. Both teams have 12 days to prepare with West Virginia coming off a tough game at Auburn the week before. West Virginia will be favored by 3 - 7 points so this is certainly a winnable game but on a Thursday night in Morgantown with the Buffs past lack of success on the road, I see a 3 - 1 start. Ask me again after week 2. Prediction: L (3-1)
Oct 10^th - @ Texas Longhorns: There are two "more than likely" road losses on the schedule which makes Dan Hawkins' "10 win expectation, not a guarantee" phrase possible. This is one of those games. Prediction: L (3-2)
Oct 17^th - Kansas Jayhawks: The Buffs should have three home games circled this year; Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. Three games that will dictate the degree of success in 2009. Win 2 or 3 of these games, expect Colorado football to be playing in strong bowl game. Lose all three, Colorado may once again be home for the holidays once again. Kansas QB Todd Reesing has been a Buff killer and the Jayhawks are expected to be a top 25 team when it is all said and done. Kansas has to replace some offensive linemen and linebackers so the Buffs should be in the game. Prediction: L (3-3)
Oct 24^th - @ Kansas St. Wildcats: Coming off three losses, this is a trap game that should be a Buff win. At 3 - 3, this game's outcome could determine if CU goes on to a winning record in the last half of the season or underachieves. If this is truly the year that we see changes in Boulder, Dan Hawkins' team should go into Manhattan and win. Since it is the offseason, let's be optimistic. Prediction: W (4-3)
Oct 31^st - Missouri Tigers: Halloween day in Boulder should be a wild scene. Mizzou could come into this game with a 3 - 4 record with both teams will have a lot riding on the game. The Buffs will have revenge on their mind after being utterly embarrassed the past two years losing by a combined score of 113 - 10. Many of the pieces from those two games are gone from Columbia and while Missouri fans are pushing the "Blaine Gabbert for Heisman" campaign already, this is the year for revenge. And one other thing, Missouri returns the fewest starters from a year ago in the Big 12 along with Nebraska Prediction: W (5-3)
Nov 7^th - Texas A&M Aggies: I believe most Colorado fans would take 5 - 3 at this point in the year considering Texas A&M and Iowa State are still on the schedule with Nebraska being an important swing game. Most will admit Colorado should have beaten A&M a year ago in College Station outplaying them for all but 5 or so minutes of that game. At home in Folsom, the Buffs should be on a roll coming off two wins. Could be a let down candidate if they don't respond after a big Missouri victory but this team is more experienced than prior teams. Prediction: W (6-3)
Nov 14^th - @ Iowa St. Cyclones: Last time the Buffs went to Ames, they laid an egg which once again makes predicting any road games as a win a risky prospect. Trust me, Buff fans won't be laying a lot of action on the first road game to Toledo. Hawkins will remind his team of how poorly they played a year ago at Folsom and the bad loss two years ago. Colorado has a chance to win four in a row heading into the last two weeks of the season. Prediction: W (7-3)
Nov 19^th - @ Oklahoma St. Cowboys: Even if the Buffs did have a full week's rest, this would be a loss but on the road with a short week against a top 10 contender, the Buffs' win streak ends here. Prediction: L (7-4)
Nov 27^th - Nebraska Cornhuskers: Eight wins sounds like paradise with the potential for nine in a bowl game. The Buffs will get more rest than the Huskers due to playing on a Thursday night against Oklahoma State and the Huskers have to travel to Boulder. Right now, this game is a toss-up but it is hard for me to see this Buffs team finishing with eight wins and it is equally hard to see the Huskers as a top 25 team. That being said, seven wins was my number for the Buffs all along. Eight is do-able as you can tell, nine is a stretch. You can also make a case for five or six wins. Prediction: L (7-5)

SB NATION BIG 12 BLOGGER'S ROUNDTABLE Q&A

1) Predicted Finish

Big 12 North

Kansas

Nebraska

Colorado

Missouri

Kansas State

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Oklahoma

Texas

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Texas Tech

Texas A&M

2) Who wins the Big 12 North?

~~Colorado Buffaloes Nebraska Cornhuskers~~ The Kansas Jayhawks...who knows, its wide open? Go get'em Buffs!

3) Who wins the Big 12 South?

The Oklahoma Sooners

4) How many Big 12 teams will be bowl eligible?

7 - Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State

5) Which conference team do you think will show the most improvement from last season (in record only)?

Baylor

6) Who is your Non-QB conference player of the year?

DL Gerald McCoy

7) Do you believe any Big 12 coaches will be gone (fired or hired elsewhere) after this season?

The ones I could see happening are Coach Hawk or Mike Gundy (but only with 5 wins or less and that won't happen for either.

8) What would you prefer as the Big 12's 3rd "best" bowl game? The Holiday or Alamo Bowl?

Holiday - San Diego is better than San Antonio in every way imaginable

9) Better D-Lineman, Suh or McCoy?

Gerald McCoy

10) Better Wide Receiver, Bryant or Briscoe?

Dez Bryant

11) Predict the worst non-conference loss (an upset) that the Big 12 will suffer.

Have to say Nevada upsetting Mizzou.

12) Predict the MNC participants and champion.

Florida def. Penn State (an embarrassment of a schedule)

Poll

What is your regular season win prediction for the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009?

10 wins +: Gotta go with Coach Hawkins, he set the bar, anything less would be a disappointment

18 votes

8 - 9 wins: very solid year, outside chance at the Big 12 North, top tier bowl game

185 votes

7 wins: an improvement, still too many holes to challenge for a North title but still bowling

86 votes

6 wins: squeak into a bowl game but with an empty feeling, still have a ways to go to be competitive each week

18 votes

5 or less wins: not enough playmakers, too many holes, more of the same in Boulder. 2010 here we come

9 votes

316 votes | Poll has closed

Wednesday Buff Bites - Just Can't Seem to Catch A Break

irish1611 — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:05:42 -0000

In arguably the two biggest weak spots on the entire football team, the Buffs have potentially lost four newcomers that were being counted on to elevate their respective positions. Most recently, blue chip commit DE Nick Kasa partially tore his MCL after being rolled up on during practice on Monday. Instead of deciding whether to use the swim or the rip move to get around the Colorado State offensive tackle, Kasa is now weighing the options of playing a shortened freshman season or redshirting. The 6'7" defensive end was the potential rush end that would not only play a role in getting to the quarterback but be a consistent mainstay of the Buffs defense.

Staying on the defensive side of the ball, the Buffs also lost another blue chip recruit in DT Edward Nuckols, who failed to academically qualify out of high school. He is expected to grey shirt but once you start down that "difficulty in qualifying" path, who knows if we will ever see him in black and gold. Nuckols says he will be back in Boulder which is good news for 2010.

Now instead of four defensive linemen in the 2009 recruiting class, the Buffs might only have two to try and sure up one of the most important tasks in all of football; getting to the quarterback.

The equivalent weakness on the offensive side as it wide receiver. Last month, good news about junior college transfer Andre Simmons qualifying was being filtered throughout the media. Well, the Buffs are two weeks into camp and still no 6'3" 210 pound sub 4.5 running receiver on the field. And the situation doesn't look like their is a happy ending. Instead of Coach Hawkins relaying the "everything is fine, we are just dealing with paperwork" scenario for Simmons, the news wire has gone silent. Who knew it would be this hard to get an answer from the different "ruling bodies" in charge? I feel for Andre Simmons who has been on one large roller coast ride in trying to jump through hoops to academically appease both the NCAA Clearinghouse and the University of Colorado Admissions office.

But, at least we have Markques Simas, right? He and Scotty McKnight teamed to together will be an upgrade over the past three years at wideout, right? Nope, Markques Simas is suspended for the first two games for violating team rules or something like that "a long time ago." Around the same time as Simas' suspension, West Virginia went the opposite route in dealing with their receiver who had an incident "a long time ago;" suspend early reinstate before impacting games. West Virginia has reinstated leading receiver Jock Sanders six months after a drunken-driving arrest in Morgantown.

As any coach would now say, he needs the players who are "able" to play at defensive line and wide receiver to step up and claim the starting spots. And as fans, that is all we can hope for. Good news out of camp is that late 2009 signee Will Jefferson has looked good at reciever and is ahead of Jarrod Darden and Terdema Ussery, two other freshman recievers. But expecting big production out of freshmen doesn't always lead to a happy ending either. As for defensive line, until they actually lineup against a different colored jersey, who knows? But now, more than ever, the Buffs will be counting on Conrad Obi, Lagrone Shields, Will Perciak, Curtis Cunningham, Tyler Sale and Marquez Herrod to he the anchors of the defense.

One thing is for sure, a lot of eyes will be on these two positions come September 6th.

Links after the jump...

The Wiz of Odds: Let the Voting Begin for Poster Primary No. 4
Vote for the great Colorado Buffaloes schedule poster and look at how horrible to Colorado State poster is. Talk about portraying the wrong message!

Brooks: Q&A With Cody H. - CUBuffs.com
Junior quarterback Cody Hawkins talks about camp, the season, the change in offensive coordinators and more.

The Longmont Times-Call -Article on Buffs' Linebacker B.J. Beatty

Bob Foster, CU’s outside linebackers coach for 2009, said it remains to be seen how good Beatty can be. "I think he has great quick feet," Foster said. "I think against certain tackles and guards, he’ll be really good. He’s still learning. "The only thing he lacks is a little bit of size when it comes to some of those big-old tackles with those long arms out there. He has great movement, great quick feet. ... He has to learn to use the tools he has — his arms and his hands and his hips, how he can move his hips to put a move on these big slow tackles. He’s not going to do a lot of power rushing."

Young Texan stands tall on D-line - The Denver Post
With Edward Nuckols out for 2009 and Nick Kasa looking to be out for a better part of season, DT Nate Bonsu might be the one from the 2009 recruiting class to solidify the Buffs defensive line:

On either side of the ball, most freshman linemen could use a year in the weight room. Bonsu, however, arrived ready to go.

"He's really strong," junior defensive end Marquez Herrod said. "He squats almost what I do (600- to 700-pound range), and I've been here three years."

The Longmont Times-Call - Tempering Wide Receiver Expecations

So the chances that Jefferson, Terdema Ussery and Jarrod Darden — a talented core of true freshmen — will somehow work themselves onto the field this season is pretty likely, although Eric Kiesau won’t admit it just yet. "We’re expecting so much out of these guys, but we’ve got to keep pinching ourselves and saying, ‘These guys were in high school four months ago, and now we’re expecting them to go out and play against some senior cornerbacks that have been in the Big 12 for a long time,’" the Buffs’ offensive coordinator said. "That’s why we have to have a ground check. These kids are still learning, and they’re still young. But they continue to get better as camp goes through." Kiesau did say Jefferson, a late arrival to Boulder after the Buffs offered him a scholarship just before camp began, is probably "a little further along" than the other two, but they’re all in the mix.

Buffs' starter not only QB in question - Colorado Daily
Third string is also a batte in fall camp. As they always say, you are just two plays away from being the starting quarterback.

Lobato finds right fit at CU — Loveland, Colo., Reporter-Herald
Walk on freshman quarterback Seth Lobato has opened eyes at Buffs camp, even garnering more attention than Clark Evans at times.

Brooks: Goodman Finds Perspective - CUBuffs.com
Placement specialist Aric Goodman believes he's put a sub-par 2008 season behind him and is on track to rebound in 2009.

The Longmont Times-Call - Ray Polk Showing Well at Safety
Healed and ready to hit Buffs’ Polk rebounds from surgeries to make mark as defensive back

Chat: Chat with Tim Griffin - SportsNation - ESPN
Tim Griffin thinks a bowl trip for the Buffs is in the cards in 2009:

Travis (Omaha, Nebraska) Colorado is getting very little talk, but I believe they are a legitimate contender for the Big 12 North. What are your thoughts on the Buffs?

Tim Griffin (2:23 PM) Travis:You are right. The Buffaloes are getting little mention behind either Kansas, Nebraska and even Missouri in the North. The quarterback situation troubles me. Don't know if Cody Hawkins has the arm to really exploit Big 12 teams. Also the loss of Josh Smith to UCLA and Markques Simas for two games will hurt. But I do like their cornerbacks, who are among the best in the conference and a real weapon in this conference. I think the Buffaloes will run the ball with a collection of running backs. And another to keep your eye out for is the fact that all of their major games against major North Division foes -- Missouri, Nebraska and Kansas -- will be at home. Add it together and I think they might surprise some people. I definitely think a bowl trip is in the offing this season.

Buffs Will Play Thursday's Scrimmage at Regis High School
The Buffs will travel Thursday afternoon to Regis High School for work that is closed to the public and media. Reason for the road trip: To get the team used to travelling and playing in an unfamiliar venue, Hawkins said

CU's Kasa mulling redshirt : Boulder Daily Camera

Colorado freshman defensive end Nick Kasa might have to undergo surgery after a magnetic resonance imaging test revealed he suffered a partially torn medial collateral ligament on Monday during two-on-two pass-rushing drills. Kasa said CU doctors and athletic trainers have told him to expect a 6-8 week recovery time, which could allow him to return prior to the beginning of conference play in early October. "Right now, they don’t really know," Kasa said. "It could heal itself or maybe not. We’re just going see what happens. Surgery could be an option or it could not be."

CSU's QB picture is getting clearer | coloradoan.com
The Colorado St. Rams QB race might be down to two participants due to injuries to the other two quarterbacks.

Grant Stucker and Jon Eastman not only are the top contenders to become CSU's starting quarterback this fall, they might be the only candidates.

'Twas the Night Before Camp

irish1611 — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:13:09 -0000

View full size photo »

At last, let the journey begin. Finally, no more to talk about than "10 wins, no excuses," preseason rankings, and trying to rationalize the experience of your second team quarterback divided by the factor of 3 to figure out upcoming win potential. It's tough trying to get through the minutia, rehashing on subjects that never seem to go away. Last year it was the off-the-field issues, the year before was the "intramurals" comment and we all know what the offseason of 2009 will be famous for. Hopefully, 2010's offseason will be known for the talk about the resurrection of the Colorado Buffaloes football program.

Hopefully, the 2009 season is about quieting the snickering and the under-the-breath-laughing that most of the nation is displaying towards the "I didn't guarantee 10 wins" by coach Hawkins.

Boy is it good to have actual football back.

Everyone has things they hope to hear about coming out of camp that will make them feel better about the upcoming season, especially this year, as pivotal as it is surrounded by the perpetual statement : "if." The time to answer the "ifs" starts tomorrow!

There are many things to be excited about as camp kicks off but here are five that should get the juices flowing

-The Emergence of a new No. 1 - Yep, it looks like Andre Simmons might be wearing the number 1 this season based on the most recent release of the 2009 roster. Let's hope that it actually comes to fruition. In somewhat of a heroic effort to finish nine classes this spring and summer just to possibly qualify, Andre Simmons will try to pull off another amazing feat to get into "playing shape" and digest the playbook in one month to become a key playmaker. Talk about a whirlwind last few months for Simmons who probably had no idea what he was in for when he committed to the Buffs on February 4^th. I am excited to see the big #1 out there, standing 6'3" weighing in at 210 pounds, showing off his 4.46...something that trumps any Buffs' receiver by almost two tenths of a second. Whether he will be ready to make an immediate impact from week one or even week four against West Virginia remains to be seen but there is excitement around the prospects of such an impact. Still with all the hoopla about Simmons, the real key to gain offensive balance will be the growth of Markques Simas as a true number 1 receiver. Similar to Andre Simmons, Simas has never played in a division one game so the Buffs are counting on a lot of production from the unknown. That being said, the unknowns have talent and the potential to be the best duo at receiver the Buffs have had in a while.

-Eric Kiesau at the Helm - 95^th, 72^nd, 102^nd...that has been the Buffs' total offense ranking the last three years. With the departure of former offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich to Oregon in the offseason and the promotion of the popular Eric Kiesau, Buff fans are hoping that the new man in charge can maximize the strengths of the offense. The good news is that the pieces seem to be in a better place than they ever were under Helfrich and let's face it, the numbers can't get much worse. I am excited to see if Kiesau can pump some life into the offense, something he has already done on the recruiting front. Dan Hawkins takes over Kiesau's wide receiver duties with Hawkins stating that Kiesau will be given total autonomy on the X's and O's. It will be fun to watch the impact Hawkins has on one of the biggest question mark positions and at the same time, the game plans Kiesau comes up with.

-One, Two, Three, Four... That's A Stable - the Buffs seem to have four running backs who are all capable of carrying the load. Of course the headliner is Darrell Scott who is still the player most fans will go and see this fall. #2 will be a different player than people will remember seeing last fall. Gone is the 230 pound back and supposedly in is the 210 pound speedster that still has the power that we saw last fall. The newest roster lists Scott at a surprising 225 pounds, though, which is a surprise if it is true due to the statements from many parties, including himself, saying Scott's best playing weight is in the 210 range. Don't forget about Rodney Stewart who is still playing the underdog role after outplaying Darrell Scott a year ago and leading the Buffs in rushing. Stewart and Scott should have a great battle all camp and I think running backs coach Darian Hagan loves pinning the players against each other to breed competition. Don't forget about Demetrius Sumler, who led the Buffs in rushing touchdowns last year, and Brian Lockridge, whose speed quickly catches the eye. Running back drills ought to be highly competitive this fall.

-The Newbies - One of the best things about the first few days of camp is getting a look at the newcomers. Most of us have had to rely on the scouting services' height and weight measurements, 3 minute YouTube highlights and MaxPreps statistics. Yeah, Edward Nuckols, the highly rated defensive tackle from California, didn't qualify but there are still plenty of other players that everyone should get a look at to see if they pass the eyeball test. Nick Kasa, the defensive end from Colorado, should bring in a crowd of onlookers as the Buffs badly need the 6'7" pass rusher to get to the quarterback, preferably in year one. All of the neophytes will be good to see out there but I am especially excited to see Kasa, Forrest West, Terdema Ussery, Nate Bonsu and Liloa Nobriga. Also, I have heard not many newcomers have impressed more this summer than CB Deji Olatoye, the lowest rated recruit in last year's class but possess great athleticism and measurables. Oh yeah, make sure you watch out for that 6'5" quarterback as well.

-Position Battles Galore - There are probably only a handful of players who have starting jobs locked up: OG Ryan Miller, OT Nate Solder, C Mike Iltis, OT Bryce Givens, S Anthony Perkins, P Matt DiLallo, S Patrick Mahnke, FB Jake Behrens and possibly CB Jimmy Smith. Other than that, let the battles begin. Running backs & the quarterback spot will get the most attention this fall but to me, the most exciting is at linebacker. Throw in a bunch of talented players, the possible need for a 3 - 4 defense and coach Brian Cabral's history of producing great units and you have, to me, one of the more intriguing battles. Returning starters Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart were thought to be shoe-ins for a repeat on top of the depth chart but in spring ball, both were in deep competition with Douglas Rippy, B.J. Beatty, Marcus Burton and Michael Sipili. Throw in a healthy Jon Major from the 2008 recruiting class and the Buffs look to have seven players who will be fighting for the three to four spots. Plus, who knows what Forrest West (3 - 4 purposes), Derrick Webb and Liloa Nobriga have to offer. Marcus Burton was lights out in spring ball, showing great range and putting up impressive workout numbers. Who would have thought the 260 pounder would be the fastest backer?

Poll

What position battle are you most excited to see play out this fall?

Quarterback

38 votes

Wide Receiver

59 votes

Linebacker

18 votes

Running Back

77 votes

Defensive Line

25 votes

217 votes | Poll has closed