SB Nation - Blake Behrens

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

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Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

---

Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

Game Day Buff Bites: Wyoming Cowboys vs. Colorado Buffaloes

irish1611 — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 14:01:20 -0000

Wideout Simas ready to make impact in debut - The Denver Post
The Buffs get some offensive help today with the debut of WR Markques Simas. How long have we talked about Simas? Finally, today SHOULD be the day that we see Simas on the field but who knows with this coaching staff.

"I don't want to hear, 'He could have been this, he could have been that,' " Simas said. "I want to be that guy. I want to be one of the best receivers at Colorado."

The Longmont Times-Call - Buffs rev up intensity
Defensive Coordinator Ron Collins makes some comments that are a little disturbing. My main question is why didn't they learn what it takes in fall camp or even after the game against Colorado State? Why did it take six weeks for this to click?

"I think sometimes players don’t realize what it takes, and now these first two games have kind of sent a little shock to their system. They need to pick up the intensity in practice. "At times, they need some motivation to get going. You know, sometimes they don’t know if they’re coasting or going hard. If they are coasting, then you have to let them know. Because we have enough guys that we’ve got competition. If guys are not getting it done, then we have other guys who can step up and do it."

It's California dreamin' for former Buffs wideout Smith - The Denver Post
Former Buff receiver Josh Smith breaks his silence a little and talks about his decision to leave Colorado and attend UCLA. Josh said that the pressure of being and impact player and Mark Helfrich's decision to leave played into his transfer. He also had this to say about Dan Hawkins:

No hard feelings for CU Smith maintains UCLA's music production department is the main reason he left. While he said football issues contributed to his decision, he wasn't upset with Hawkins. "He's a good coach, as far as personality and effort," he said. "He always made sure we played with excellence and class and made sure we knew who we were representing."

Hawkins hopes CU can be comeback kids - The Denver Post
Three questions for CU

1. Will Colorado's defense prevent the gashers? "Gashers" is what Colorado coach Dan Hawkins calls long gains made by the opponents' offense. They are lethal. The Buffs allowed 11 plays of 20 or more yards against Toledo, including four of 40 or more. In the opener, Colorado State also busted four plays of 40-plus yards. That must stop.
2. Is CU's offense certain about the scheduled time for kickoff? In its first two games, Colorado sleepwalked through the first two quarters and failed to score a first-half touchdown. Hard to believe, but the Buffs trailed Colorado State and Toledo by a combined 43-6 at halftime. Talk about having to play uphill from the get-go.
3. Will the Buffs' revamped offensive line control the line of scrimmage? With Ryan Miller moving from right guard to right tackle, fellow sophomores Matt Bahr and Blake Behrens are expected to share time at right guard. Offensive linemen typically work at several positions, but chemistry can be an issue after a shuffling of personnel.

Omaha.com - The Omaha World-Herald: - You heard it here last: Weekend predictions
I laughed:

2. Colorado picks up a fumble and scores with 1:35 left to beat Wyoming at home. Dan Hawkins gets another contract extension.

CU vs. WYO on cable : All Things Colorado Sports Colorado
Saturday’s Wyoming at Colorado football game will be shown on Fox College Sports Central. That’s channel 414 on Comcast’s Denver/Boulder digital sports-tier package. Kickoff at Folsom Field is scheduled for about 1:40 p.m.

It does not look like the game is on Dish Network

ESPN To Air Sal Aunese Feature This Weekend - CUBuffs.com
ESPN will pay tribute to the 20th anniversary of the passing of Sal Aunese this weekend as part of its college football coverage. Aunese, who started at quarterback for CU in 1987 and '88, succumbed to inoperable stomach cancer on Sept. 23, 1989, after a 5 ½-month battle.

The Longmont Times-Call - Nothing personal

Gabe Knapton says Colorado barely gave him a second glance when he was a standout defender right down the road at Skyline High School. No matter — he didn’t want to wind up in Boulder anyway. "I knew I was going to Wyoming," said Knapton, a sophomore linebacker for the Cowboys. "(If) they don’t want to look at a Colorado football kid, then we’ll show them what Wyoming is like."

Laramie Boomerang - Laramie, Wyoming > Sports
Wyoming head coach Dave Christensen expects a competitive performance from the Buffs today:

"First of all, they have good football players," Christensen said. "Their backs are to the wall, and they’re wounded a little bit, but I guarantee you they’re competitive kids, they’re a competitive staff and they’re going to come out fighting. It’s going to be a challenge or us."

Even as 7-point underdogs, Wyoming Cowboys look scary | INDenverTimes

Speedy revs up for game vs. Pokes - Boulder Daily Camera
CU running back vows to play despite nagging hamstring injury

Former Coach Gary Barnett says inexperience, expectations hurting CU - The Denver Post

Wednesday Buff Bites: Miller Moves Back to Tackle, Hawkins Will Start at QB

irish1611 — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 03:10:18 -0000

The Buffzone Blog - Ryan Miller moves to right tackle

Ryan Miller moves to right tackle this week. Bryce Givens dealing with some personal issues. Blake Behrens or Matt Bahr possible right guard

Cody Hawkins expected to play vs. Wyoming - The Denver Post

USC Trojans phenom Matt Barkley and Michigan Wolverines phenom Tate Forcier Dash to the forefront - ESPN
Pat Forde of ESPN, the guy who picked Colorado to win the North in the preseason, called the scheduling of Toledo only five days after a rivalry game as "one of the dumbest scheduling moves of all time" by Mike Bohn:

This one deserves special merit for one of the dumbest scheduling moves of all time, by Buffs athletic director Mike Bohn, who agreed to play a Friday night road game two times zones away after a Sunday night rivalry game. If Dan Hawkins loses his job after this season -- that remains a bigger if than some might think, given the cost of his buyout and CU's troubled athletic finances -- he can blame Bohn for lining up this trap game.

Woelk: Panic button still untouched by Buffaloes - Boulder Daily Camera
In a shocker based on calling the Buffs' play this past two weeks "inexcusable," Neill Woelk doesn't believe this season is a complete loss yet. I don't think it is a complete loss yet either considering only two games are complete but with the schedule only getting harder, we will see:

Theories as to why the Buffs have started so slowly are as plentiful as the points they`ve allowed. One former player told me Hawkins` offense isn`t geared to the team`s talent.Another said the fault lies with the defense, that it has been deteriorating over the last couple of years and the worst is still ahead. And yet another ex-Buff insists the troubles can all be traced to Hawkins` lack of motivational skills. Maybe some or all of that is true, but fact is, it`s still Hawkins` team, and he still has time to change the direction. With 10 games remaining on the schedule, there`s ostensibly still enough time to make this season memorable for something other than being the one every Buff fan wishes he could forget.

Hawkins to stay course - Boulder Daily Camera

The Longmont Times-Call - Buffs plan to simplify defense against Wyo.

Defensive coordinator Ron Collins said a simpler scheme means CU is going back to base coverages and won’t rotate as many defenders. Toledo’s fast-paced offense caused CU confusion during Friday’s 54-38 loss. Collins said he expects Wyoming’s offense to use a similar pace. He expects fewer substitutions will reduce confusion.

The Longmont Times-Call - Hounded Hawkins

"Do I worry about what they think?" Hawkins said. "Sure, I worry about what they think. We want our fans, because we need support. We have to have people fill up the stands. We didn’t sell out against Colorado State. I would like to see us sell out every single game. I would like to see our season ticket base grow, like to see our fans grow and see them fired up. I understand why they’re disappointed and all of that. "You do the things you believe in. You do the things close to 30 years of experience have taught you, and you keep hammering away at that. That doesn’t mean you don’t tweak some thing. But you don’t just scrap 30 years of successful experience and say, ‘Well, let’s do it a different way.’"

more Wyoming and Buff links after the jump....

Wyoming Returns Leading WR From Suspension
Former Aurora, CO and current Wyoming receiver Greg Bolling returns from suspension this week against the Buffs. The 6'2" wideout led the Cowboys putrid offense a year ago in receptions and yards, hauling in 26 catches for 271 yards.

McCartney backs CU coach Hawkins - The Denver Post
Bill McCartney, Colorado's winningest football coach, threw his full support behind struggling Colorado coach Dan Hawkins today. "I still believe he's laid the right foundation," McCartney said, "and with a foundation of sound character, hard work and principles, it's just a matter of time."

Big 12 power rankings: Week 2 - Big 12 - ESPN
Tim Griffin drops the Buffs to 12 out of 12 in the Big 12 in his weekly rankings:

12. Colorado: It can’t get much worse to start the season for the Buffaloes, who dropped two games to schools from outside BCS conferences and allowed 1,000 yards on defense to boot. The Buffaloes’ embarrassing defensive efforts have them ranked in the bottom 10 teams nationally in rushing defense, pass efficiency defense and total defense. And a rushing game that was thought to be the team's biggest strength ranks only 109th nationally.

Colorado eye on: The Cowboys - The Denver Post

Buffs face offensive guru - Boulder Daily Camera
Former Missouri Tigers offensive coordinator is now the head coach at Wyoming. Many fans have dreadful memories of Christensen's offense the past two years:

Christensen is confident his offense will be able to move the ball and score points this season against teams without burnt orange uniforms. Entering Saturday's game, CU's defense ranks 111th after yielding an average of 500 yards and 38.5 points in losses to Colorado State and Toledo. "I don't think it's any secret. Everybody knows how good they are. They're ranked No. 2 for a reason," Christensen said of the Longhorns. "We held them to 13 points in the first half. I played them last year at Missouri and they scored the first six times they had the football. Our defense is playing well. We have to do a better job offensively. We have to find some ways to keep the possession of the football."

Brooks: Simas Seems Settled - CUBuffs.com

CU coach Hawkins feeling the hot seat - The Denver Post

After an embarrassing loss at Toledo, Colorado football players knew they would have a hostile greeting when they returned home, but maybe they didn't know the extent of it. They do now. "I have this geology class," senior linebacker and captain Marcus Burton said Tuesday, "and the professor's like, 'You people may think this class is boring. We're just talking about rocks. But it's no more boring than both the CU games. Marcus, you're a captain. Can you tell us about that?' "He calls me out on the floor. I wanted to leave, but I didn't. I'm in the class to learn. I'm not there to talk about football."

Big 12 games this week - KLTV 7 News Tyler, Longview, Jacksonville |

Key Matchup Colorado RB Darrell Scott vs. Wyoming DL John Fletcher. Scott, a prized recruit who hasn't yet turned into a dominate player, had 85 yards on 12 carries in the loss at Toledo. Fletcher is the anchor of the Cowboys line. He has two sacks this season, both in the opener against Weber State.

Players to watch Wyoming: Junior FS Chris Prosinski had a career high 17 tackles against Texas last week and a pair of sophomores - LB Brian Hendricks and CB Marcell Gipson - added 14 and 12 tackles, respectively. LB Weston Johnson tied a career high with 11 tackles. Colorado: Junior QB Cody Hawkins was knocked woozy after a helmet-to-helmet hit near the end zone against Toledo. But he's expected to start again. The Buffaloes are trying to avoid stripping speedy QB Tyler Hansen of his redshirt year.

Facts & Figures The Buffaloes will don throwback jerseys from the 1930s - the days of Byron "Whizzer" White - on Saturday. The uniforms feature gold jerseys with black numbers and silver pants. ... The Buffaloes defense has allowed 16 plays of 20 or more yards this season. ... Cowboys senior WR Greg Bolling returns after serving a 2-game suspension for violating team rules. Bolling led Wyoming in receiving last season, hauling in 26 passes for 271 yards.

INSIDE THE MATCHUP: Wyoming at Colorado
The Buffs aren't the only team giving up a lot of big plays this season. Wyoming is having problems of their own keeping opposing teams offenses limited:

KEY STAT: The Pokes continue to be bugged by big plays. One week after allowing nine plays of 15 or more yards to Football Subdivision opponent Weber State, the Pokes gave up 11 such plays to the Longhorns -- including three touchdowns from at least 25 yards out. UW had just two plays go for at least 15 yards Saturday and have just nine such plays through two games.

Hawkins’ Tuesday Press Conference Quotes - CUBuffs.com

On Defensive Issues-"The biggest thing is we have a really good defensive staff, and it's interesting, what we are trying to do to some degree is try to make it so perfect and so exact that sometimes you overdo it just a hair. I think you can do that on offense too, and you run into situations where you make sure you have the right amount of numbers, and if they have seven in the box, run it, or eight in the box so don't run it, sometimes you just need to just line up and run it. I think that's a lot of it, we just have to be able to kind of not worry about every single exact nuance, but maybe the simplicity allows for the complexity, and that's it. We get tied into knots by trying to do too much or thinking a little bit. Part of that is due to inexperienced nature, particularly as it pertains to the kids up front, and part of it is like I said, trying to be such a great coach that you want to put them right in exactly the right place every single time, I think that's a lot of it."

CU Buffs coach Dan Hawkins says he's secure in his job despite 0-2 start - Boulder Daily Camera

Brooks: J-Brown Having A Friend Over - CUBuffs.com

In Laramie, Christensen initially might be lacking the firepower he's accustomed to wielding, but his system hasn't changed. CU remembers it as the stuff of nightmares; over the past two seasons, Christensen and the Tigers thoroughly embarrassed the Buffs, flogging them 55-10 in 2007 and 58-0 in 2008. "They're Missouri," CU secondary coach Greg Brown said of Wyoming's offensive scheme under Christensen. "They're extremely similar to what he was doing at Missouri and had so much success with."

Wyoming Tribune Eagle Online - Is lack of finishing a cause for concern for Pokes?

"Just how bad is bottom of Big 12?" by Conference chatter / LJWorld.com

Colorado won't be winning 10 games, much to the chagrin of coach Dan Hawkins. The Buffs (0-2) may lose 10, though. Their defense was dreadful on Friday in a 54-38 pasting at Toledo. The schedule won't be forgiving these next few weeks, either. Colorado is home to Wyoming next week, which should be a win, but then travels to West Virginia, Texas, and is home to Kansas. One-and-5? It's probable.

Omaha.com - The Omaha World-Herald: Sports - Barfknecht: Three-team race

2. Colorado coach Dan Hawkins apparently reads different statistics than the rest of us. Out of 120 teams nationally, the Buffaloes (0-2) are 107th in scoring defense, 109th in rushing offense, 111th in total defense, 112th in rushing defense and 119th in pass efficiency defense. Yet from listening to Hawkins on Monday's Big 12 teleconference, things are good after losses of 23-17 to Colorado State and 54-38 to Toledo. On his players' mental state after questions about their effort against Toledo:

"They're good. They hustled Friday night and we practiced hard Sunday morning.'' On an offense ranked 78th and special teams units floundering in the lower half of the nation: "I think we're starting to find ourselves.'' On falling behind 20-3 to Colorado State and 30-3 to Toledo: "I thought we did better last week.'' On a defense that has allowed 1,000 yards in two games: "We've just got a couple of things we've got to clean up.''

Huh?

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Colorado Buffaloes Team Capsule

irish1611 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 08:36:59 -0000

If the Buffs are to realize their goals for 2009, Cody Hawkins' and the entire offenses' performance much improve from their 95th total offense ranking a year ago.

View full size photo »

Coach: Dan Hawkins enters his third season at Colorado (13-24, 0 - 1 in postseason).
Coaching Changes: Offensive Coordinator Eric Kiesau (replaces Mark Helfrich - Oregon), Offensive Line Coach Denver Johnson (replaces Jeff Grimes - Auburn), Defensive Consultant/Linebackers Bob Foster added to roster, Dan Hawkins to coach Wide Receivers.
2008 Record: 5-7 overall, 2-6 in Big 12
Players Returning with '08 Starts:
- Offense: 15 - WR Scotty McKnight, LT Nate Solder, LG Blake Behrens, RT Matthew Bahr, TE Riar Geer, TE Ryan Deehan, QB Cody Hawkins, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Rodney Stewart, RB Demetrius Sumler, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Darrell Scott, FB Jack Behrens, OG Ryan Miller, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner.
  - 64% (85 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Defense: 9 - DE Marquez Herrod, LB Jeff Smart, LB Shaun Mohler, CB Cha'pelle Brown, S Anthony Perkins, S Patrick Mahnke, CB Jimmy Smith, CB Jalil Brown, LB Michael Sipili
  - 39% (51 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Special teams: 2 - P Matt DiLallo, PK Aric Goodman.
Key Positions to Replace From 2008 - Defensive Line, Center, Safety
Key Losses from 2008: LB Brad Jones, S Ryan Walters, DT George Hypolite, DT Brandon Nicolas, C Daniel Sanders, OG Devin Head.
Newcomers Who Might See Time in 2009: DE Nick Kasa, DT Nate Bonsu, LB Forrest West, WR Jarrod Darden, WR Will Jefferson, WR Terdema Ussery, WR Andre Simmons, K Zach Grossnickle.

OFFENSE

2008 OFFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Offense: 86^th overall, 10^th in Big 12 / Passing Offense: 81^st overall, 11^th in Big 12 / Total Offense: 95^th overall, 12^th in Big 12 / Scoring Offense: 100^th overall, 12^th in Big 12.

The 2008 season was an offensive performance to forget. A rash of injuries, inexperienced players at important positions and a lack of a consistent identity spelt trouble for the Colorado Buffaloes. With the 2009 season just around the corner, a more experienced unit overall plus a healthy group of linemen up front has many hoping that the Buffs will reverse the lackluster offensive performance of the past few years. That being said, there are still plenty of question marks that still need to be answered.

the rest of the offensive, defensive, Q&A and win/loss predictions after the jump....

NEW FACES BRINGS NEW SCHEMES: One of the headlines coming into the 2009 season was the changes to the offensive staff. Joining the Colorado Buffaloes this offseason was offensive line coach Denver Johnson, who previously held the Illinois State head coaching job. Replacing Jeff Grimes, Johnson has seemed to endear himself to the fan base, preaching to bring back a more smash mouth style of football, playing on the opposition's side of the ball and putting the five linemen on the field. Such was displayed with Johnson's decision to move Ryan Miller to guard to make way for OT Blake Behrens. Johnson inherits a unit with no seniors but full of talent and a reason to be optimistic about the program's future. If Johnson can quickly& successfully implement his system with this young but relatively experienced offensive line, Buff fans should brace for a much improved offensive performance in 2009. The good news for the new coach is, unlike last year, his unit looks much healthier. Back from injury/off the field issues is Miller, OG Ethan Adkins, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner (mid season return expected) and C Mike Iltis; all of whom will be battling for a starting spot.

Their was also a shake up at the top with former wide receivers and assistant head coach, Eric Kiesau, taking over as offensive coordinator for Mark Helfrich. The season opener against Colorado State will mark the first game which Eric Kiesau has owned the game plan and called the plays on game day. Last season, the Buffs failed to establish any sort of identity, attempting to run the spread with a youthful, injured team that lacked game changing playmakers. Kiesau has said to want to bring back a more "pro-style" offense that allows for more power football, the use of tight ends and a progression based passing game, three traits that bode well for the strengths of CU's offense.

Head coach Dan Hawkins will take over the wide receiver coaching duties replacing Kiesau. Ashley Ambrose will assist Hawkins with the wide receivers and should take over in the near future.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: With WR Markques Simas suspended for the first two games of the season, junior college transfer WR Andre Simmons qualifying status up the air as of Thursday, August 18^th, the lone remaining experienced receiver on the Buffs' roster is Scotty McKnight. Not labeled as an explosive receiver, the Buffs need him to continue to be the steady force and over achieve on his prior two seasons considering the Buffs might not have a lot elsewhere to provide production. Colorado might get some production out of true freshman Will Jefferson, Jarrod Darden and Terdema Ussery but McKnight might be the best and only experienced option in 2009.

In an obvious choice, QB Cody Hawkins, who looks to have the edge in the quarterback race, needs to improve from 2008. The lack of playmakers currently at wide receiver does not bode well for increased production from Hawkins but tight end, running back and offensive line look to be improved from a year ago. If Hawkins can make better decisions and manage the offense through a strong running game, the passing game should open up. The key for Hawkins this year is to increase his completion percentage which was 57.2% in 2008, about 5% below the average junior quarterback % in 2008. Sustaining drives, keeping the defense off the field and converting on third downs will all improve with an increase in completions.

You could go running back here but with a stable of four in the backfield, the production looks to be there. Most Buff fans will look at the offensive line and hope that their health leads to more points. That being said, look to the tackle spots as players who need to play big in 2009. LT Nate Solder and RT Blake Behrens have the inside track at the two starting positions with the prospects of a bright future ahead of them. Solder, the athletically gifted converted tight end, has all the intangibles to be a dominant tackle while Behrens has similar intangibles and great footwork. Solder, due to his position change, and Behrens, due to being a redshirt freshman, will still have growing pains but if they are able to work through those early in the season, the offensive line has the makings to be special.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Hands down this was going to be WR Markques Simas or WR Andre Simmons before the former was suspended two games and the latter is still sitting on the sideline well into week two of fall ball due to admissions issues. The new impact newcomer may be WR Will Jefferson, who was an August 2009 signee. He has seen time with the first and second teams this fall and has impressed the coaches. The safe pick here, though, is Givens, who quickly inserted himself into the starting rotation this spring after gaining 20+ pounds to his true freshman frame. Givens has the ability to grow into a great one.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE OFFENSE: Running Back and Offensive Line. The Buffs boast one of the more loaded backfields in the Big 12 with sophomores Darrell Scott, Rodney Stewart and Brian Lockridge along with junior Demetrius Sumler. Stewart led the Buffs in rushing yards as a freshman and Sumler led the team in rushing touchdowns in 2008. Lockridge, a speedster, returns from injury after a serviceable 2007 freshman campaign and looks to be an added weapon that can be useful as a third down back and in the slot. But Darrell Scott still leads the ranks in the hype category. Supposedly in the best shape of his life at 220 pounds and fully recovered from his 2008 injury-plagued season, Scott looks to take a mulligan in 2009 and become an elite Big 12 back. Still, don't count out the other three, especially Rodney Stewart, who continues to impress. We do know one thing; running backs coach Darian Hagan will play the best man for the job regardless of preseason hype.

The offensive line has all the potential you could ask for to build a team around. They are big, fast, athletic, and will be around for a long time. Nate Solder is the veteran on the offensive line, sort of, checking in as a junior with all other players vying for starting spots coming in as either sophomores or redshirt freshmen. Solder and Ryan Miller lead the way in the size category coming at 6'9" 305 pounds and 6'8" 320 pounds respectively with Solder considered to be one of the most athletic players on the team, running a sub 5.0 second forty this offseason. C Mike Iltis looks to have the center spot locked down replacing Daniel Sanders from a year ago while Givens will man the right tackle spot. The only position that looks to be up for grabs at this point in time is the other guard spot. Ethan Adkins looks to have the upper hand but watch out for Blake Behrens and Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner, once he returns from his ACL injury, to push for time there. This unit is big, athletic, has depth and should be a bright spot in 2009 if they can protect the quarterback.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE OFFENSE: Wide Receiver and Quarterback. Wide receiver takes spots #1 and #2 in our weakness review. With Scotty McKnight the only player active who has caught a pass in a division one football game, the Buffs lack known quantities at the flanker spot. Markques Simas will hopefully return against Wyoming from suspension but with his academic ineligibility in 2008 coupled with the most current infraction, Buff fans should not count on anything. Andre Simmons, if admitted, should not be expected to be ready for the Colorado State game considering he has been sitting on the sideline for the last two weeks. Hopefully the Buffs can have both Simmons and Simas ready by the Wyoming game and can get production from one of the true freshman. Walk-on WR Jason Espinoza will also play a part in the offense. There are just not a lot of options at wide receiver this year.

Playmaking ability still remains a big concern on both sides of the ball. In 2008, the Buffs lacked explosiveness and with former WR Josh Smith transferring to UCLA, many players will be counted on to be a game changer that have not necessarily produced game changing results in the past. If the Buffs want to get to 7, 8 or 9 wins, Darrell Scott, Markques Simas, Rodney Stewart, Brian Lockridge, potentially Andre Simmons, one of the tight ends need to evolve into consistent threats on the offensive side of the ball.

DEFENSE

2008 DEFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Defense: 86^th overall, 9^th in Big 12 / Passing Efficiency Defense: 73rd overall, 5^th in Big 12 / Total Defense: 78^th overall, 4^th in Big 12 / Scoring Defense: 86^th overall, 8^th in Big 12.

2008 provided some surprises on the defensive side of the ball. A senior-laden defensive line was supposed to be the strength of the team with the cornerbacks the weak spot. Roles reversed and relatively speaking, the cornerback play exceeded expectations while the defensive line failed to meet expectations. Often thought of as "solid but not spectacular" last season, the defense is considered to be strong to very strong in the back seven in 2009 but inexperienced up front. Colorado's defense has the opportunity to be a top tier Big 12 squad if they can get solid play from the front four.

ADJUSTING AND MULTIPLE: No one knows really what the Buffs are going to do on defense this year. Dan Hawkins has kept the defense on the far side of the practice field this offseason out of the public eye, shut down practices because of the leaking of defensive formations on the internet and has even brought in Bob Foster, his past mentor at Cal-Davis, to add his defensive knowledge. As noted above and from what observers have seen, the Buffs look like they won't be afraid to mix up the base sets. The lack of known commodities up front might force Colorado to become more multiple, switching between the 3 - 4, 4 - 3 and even 3 - 3 - 5 defensive schemes. Such defensive looks are possible due to some exceptional depth at the linebacker and cornerback spots.

Defensive coordinator Ron Collins has preached this offseason that his goal is to get the 11 best players on the field and that might mean three down linemen. If the Buffs lineup with three, Collins will have to be creative in his blitz packages and cover schemes. Establishing quarterback pressure is the name of the game this year as last year the Buffs ranked 7^th in the conference in sacks, averaging on 2.0 a game.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: The Buffs need to replace 17 ½ sacks which is well over half of their total sack production from a year ago. Most are hoping that LB B.J. Beatty can replace last year's production of LB Brad Jones. Beatty showed, when healthy, that he has a nose for the football. If Colorado opts for a 3 - 4 defense, Beatty figures to play a prominent role as a rush end/stand-up outsider backer similar to what Brad Jones did for the '08 team. Again, with the major concern over who is going to get to the quarterback, players like B.J. Beatty are going to have to produce.

Marcus Burton is another player who is being counted on for a big year. An afterthought last year, Burton has rededicated himself to football and the 260 pound middle linebacker made his presence known this spring. Even though he was the biggest linebacker during offseason testing, Burton still produced the fastest forty time and showed great sideline to sideline range. Burton, considering with inexperience up front, will have a difficult job sifting through offensive linemen and being productive. Burton will have to be the anchor of the defense, especially in the early going of the season as the coaches try to figure out who will produce up front.

CB Jimmy Smith is the final player who needs to have a big year. With two inexperienced safeties in the Colorado secondary and a defensive line that is unproven, pass coverage will be at a premier this season. CB Cha'pelle Brown proved his worth last season. With CB Ben Burney returning from injury and CB Jalil Brown back from a successful 2008 campaign, the Buffs have plenty of depth at the position. But Jimmy Smith has the ability to change the game and shut down a side of the field on his own, making S Patrick Mahnke and S Anthony Perkin's life a lot easier. Smith, the 6'3" 200 pound NFL prototype cornerback, has the ability to be the best corner in the Big 12.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Early money was on DE Nick Kasa and DT Edward Nuckols due to the inexperience on the defensive line but with Kasa partially tearing his MCL and Nuckols failing to academically qualify, the Buffs will have to look elsewhere for immediate help. The most logical choice is now DT Nate Bonsu. The 6'1" 295 pound Allen, Texas product may just be forced into some early action.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE DEFENSE: Linebacker and Cornerback. Ask Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart about how strong the linebacker group is. Mohler and Smart were both starters a year ago and all conference awarded players. This year, they might be battling for one spot; and the Buffs may even add another linebacker position to run the 3 - 4. Marcus Burton impressed this offseason as did Michael Sipili, who will be competing for the middle linebacker job. Throw in the young but physically gifted Douglas Rippy and the potential of B.J. Beatty and this may be the deepest position on the Buffs team. And we didn't even mention Jon Major, a heavily recruited player from Colorado who tore his ACL last season as a true freshman.

A similar story at cornerback with 2007 starter Ben Burney returning to team up with Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith, all of whom started at least one game in 2008. Who starts against Colorado State will be fun to watch.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE DEFENSE: Defensive line, based purely on inexperience, not poor past performance. Gone are three seniors from a year ago and in are unproven players like DT Curtis Cunningham, DE Conrad Obi, DE Marquez Herrod, DT Eugene Goree, DT Tyler Sale, DT Will Pericak, DE Forrest West and DT Nate Bonsu. Nick Kasa may be in the mix after he recovers from the partial MCL tear.

Marquez Herrod will probably be a starter at defensive end but after that, it's anyone's guess. Curtis Cunningham played as a true freshman last season and made a few plays but he is still considered raw.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Last year's special team's performance was abysmal and should be a big point of emphasis this season if the Buffs' plan to be a player in the North. The departure of Josh Smith leaves a hole in the return game and 1,987 all purpose yards lost. The top candidates to fill the return role are Jason Espinoza, Rodney Stewart, Andre Simmons and Darrell Scott. K Aric Goodman returns, but he was just 5 for 14 on field goal attempts last season. The Buffs also return P Matt DiLallo who averaged 40.49 yards/punt last season while splitting time with Tom Suazo.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN AND QUICK HIT PREDICTIONS

Sept 5^th - Colorado St. Rams: The rivalry game is in Boulder, not in Denver, giving the Buffs a home field advantage. CSU will be breaking in a new quarterback and looks to have a weak front seven returning on defense. If CSU can get any quarterback play, it could be a dangerous game but expect the Buffs to load the box on defense. Prediction: W (1-0)
Sept 11^th - @ Toledo Rockets: the proverbial trap game with only five days rest. It is a Friday night game on the road against a team with a new coach; yes, a little scary. Like Colorado State, Toledo returns a lot of offensive line experience. Couple all of that with the dismal road record under Dan Hawkins (only 2 wins in three years) and the Buffs could be in more trouble than we would like to believe. That being said, Colorado has the more talented team and should win by double digits. Prediction: W (2-0)
Sept 19^th - Wyoming Cowboys: If the Buffs can start 2 - 0, they will have a nice eight day rest before hosting Wyoming at home who has little offensive identity even though former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave Christensen takes over the helm as new coach. Missouri has used Colorado as its punching bag the past two years but the Wyoming offense won't resemble Chase Coffman, Chase Daniel, Derrick Washington and Jeremy Maclin. Buffs need to win this one big. Prediction: W (3-0)
Oct 1^st - @West Virginia Mountaineers: This is a coin toss game. Both teams have 12 days to prepare with West Virginia coming off a tough game at Auburn the week before. West Virginia will be favored by 3 - 7 points so this is certainly a winnable game but on a Thursday night in Morgantown with the Buffs past lack of success on the road, I see a 3 - 1 start. Ask me again after week 2. Prediction: L (3-1)
Oct 10^th - @ Texas Longhorns: There are two "more than likely" road losses on the schedule which makes Dan Hawkins' "10 win expectation, not a guarantee" phrase possible. This is one of those games. Prediction: L (3-2)
Oct 17^th - Kansas Jayhawks: The Buffs should have three home games circled this year; Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. Three games that will dictate the degree of success in 2009. Win 2 or 3 of these games, expect Colorado football to be playing in strong bowl game. Lose all three, Colorado may once again be home for the holidays once again. Kansas QB Todd Reesing has been a Buff killer and the Jayhawks are expected to be a top 25 team when it is all said and done. Kansas has to replace some offensive linemen and linebackers so the Buffs should be in the game. Prediction: L (3-3)
Oct 24^th - @ Kansas St. Wildcats: Coming off three losses, this is a trap game that should be a Buff win. At 3 - 3, this game's outcome could determine if CU goes on to a winning record in the last half of the season or underachieves. If this is truly the year that we see changes in Boulder, Dan Hawkins' team should go into Manhattan and win. Since it is the offseason, let's be optimistic. Prediction: W (4-3)
Oct 31^st - Missouri Tigers: Halloween day in Boulder should be a wild scene. Mizzou could come into this game with a 3 - 4 record with both teams will have a lot riding on the game. The Buffs will have revenge on their mind after being utterly embarrassed the past two years losing by a combined score of 113 - 10. Many of the pieces from those two games are gone from Columbia and while Missouri fans are pushing the "Blaine Gabbert for Heisman" campaign already, this is the year for revenge. And one other thing, Missouri returns the fewest starters from a year ago in the Big 12 along with Nebraska Prediction: W (5-3)
Nov 7^th - Texas A&M Aggies: I believe most Colorado fans would take 5 - 3 at this point in the year considering Texas A&M and Iowa State are still on the schedule with Nebraska being an important swing game. Most will admit Colorado should have beaten A&M a year ago in College Station outplaying them for all but 5 or so minutes of that game. At home in Folsom, the Buffs should be on a roll coming off two wins. Could be a let down candidate if they don't respond after a big Missouri victory but this team is more experienced than prior teams. Prediction: W (6-3)
Nov 14^th - @ Iowa St. Cyclones: Last time the Buffs went to Ames, they laid an egg which once again makes predicting any road games as a win a risky prospect. Trust me, Buff fans won't be laying a lot of action on the first road game to Toledo. Hawkins will remind his team of how poorly they played a year ago at Folsom and the bad loss two years ago. Colorado has a chance to win four in a row heading into the last two weeks of the season. Prediction: W (7-3)
Nov 19^th - @ Oklahoma St. Cowboys: Even if the Buffs did have a full week's rest, this would be a loss but on the road with a short week against a top 10 contender, the Buffs' win streak ends here. Prediction: L (7-4)
Nov 27^th - Nebraska Cornhuskers: Eight wins sounds like paradise with the potential for nine in a bowl game. The Buffs will get more rest than the Huskers due to playing on a Thursday night against Oklahoma State and the Huskers have to travel to Boulder. Right now, this game is a toss-up but it is hard for me to see this Buffs team finishing with eight wins and it is equally hard to see the Huskers as a top 25 team. That being said, seven wins was my number for the Buffs all along. Eight is do-able as you can tell, nine is a stretch. You can also make a case for five or six wins. Prediction: L (7-5)

SB NATION BIG 12 BLOGGER'S ROUNDTABLE Q&A

1) Predicted Finish

Big 12 North

Kansas

Nebraska

Colorado

Missouri

Kansas State

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Oklahoma

Texas

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Texas Tech

Texas A&M

2) Who wins the Big 12 North?

~~Colorado Buffaloes Nebraska Cornhuskers~~ The Kansas Jayhawks...who knows, its wide open? Go get'em Buffs!

3) Who wins the Big 12 South?

The Oklahoma Sooners

4) How many Big 12 teams will be bowl eligible?

7 - Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State

5) Which conference team do you think will show the most improvement from last season (in record only)?

Baylor

6) Who is your Non-QB conference player of the year?

DL Gerald McCoy

7) Do you believe any Big 12 coaches will be gone (fired or hired elsewhere) after this season?

The ones I could see happening are Coach Hawk or Mike Gundy (but only with 5 wins or less and that won't happen for either.

8) What would you prefer as the Big 12's 3rd "best" bowl game? The Holiday or Alamo Bowl?

Holiday - San Diego is better than San Antonio in every way imaginable

9) Better D-Lineman, Suh or McCoy?

Gerald McCoy

10) Better Wide Receiver, Bryant or Briscoe?

Dez Bryant

11) Predict the worst non-conference loss (an upset) that the Big 12 will suffer.

Have to say Nevada upsetting Mizzou.

12) Predict the MNC participants and champion.

Florida def. Penn State (an embarrassment of a schedule)

Poll

What is your regular season win prediction for the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009?

10 wins +: Gotta go with Coach Hawkins, he set the bar, anything less would be a disappointment

18 votes

8 - 9 wins: very solid year, outside chance at the Big 12 North, top tier bowl game

185 votes

7 wins: an improvement, still too many holes to challenge for a North title but still bowling

86 votes

6 wins: squeak into a bowl game but with an empty feeling, still have a ways to go to be competitive each week

18 votes

5 or less wins: not enough playmakers, too many holes, more of the same in Boulder. 2010 here we come

9 votes

316 votes | Poll has closed

2009 Husker Football Opponent Preview: Colorado

Husker Mike — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 11:00:12 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

FILE - In this Sept. 14, 2007 file photo, Colorado quarterback Cody Hawkins, front, is sacked by Florida State defensive end Everette Brown in the third quarter of an NCAA college football game in Boulder, Colo.(AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)

Browse more photos »

Dan Hawkins raised eyebrows last winter by closing out last season's team banquet by proclaiming "Ten Wins, No Excuses." I believe him when he says it wasn't a prediction, it was an expectation. Aim high, I believe. I think any coach should have high expectations for their team.

But are the Buffaloes capable of winning ten games in 2009? That's another question entirely. Colorado fans point to last season's Nebraska game as proof that the Buffs aren't far off. If it wasn't for a school record 57 yard field goal by Alex Henery, the Buffs would have finished 6-6 and gone to a bowl game. One play away from a bowl game and a chance at a winning season. That's the story in Boulder, but is that reality? Another way to look at last season's NU/CU game is to look at the difference 4 other plays had on the outcome of the game. On Colorado's first two drives, the Buffs took advantage of blown coverages by the Blackshirts to take a 14-0 lead. Three plays did the damage: a 68 yard touchdown pass to Riar Greer, followed by a 44 yard pass to Josh Smith and then a 36 yard touchdown run by Demetrius Sumler. 3 plays, 148 yards. Quite a start.

The rest of the game? 45 plays, 153 yards of offense. Add in the fourth play, that fake field goal where Jimmy Smith intercepted the pitch to Henery and raced for a game tying touchdown, and suddenly a game that Nebraska dominated on both sides of the ball - except for those four plays - is a battle all the way. So while, yes, Nebraska was lucky that Henery was able to make a 57 yarder, Colorado was even more lucky to be in a position to steal a game in Lincoln.

Colorado's hopes for a winning season in 2009 are based on the ability of touted sophomore running back Darrell Scott. A former five-star recruit, he was slowed by injuries all season long and only accumulated 343 yards rushing, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Sophomore Rodney Stewart emerged as the Buffaloes top running back last season, rushing for 622 yards before breaking his leg against Texas A&M. Sumler, who will be a junior this season, finished last season with 251 yards.

Every Husker fan loves this image of Ndamukong Suh celebrating his game-clinching interception.
via huskersgameday.com

Junior quarterback Cody Hawkins, the coach's son, will compete with sophomore Tyler Hansen for the starting position. Hawkins is the better passer of the two, for what it's worth, completing 57% of his passes last season for 1892 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Hansen completed 52% of his passes, with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions, after pulling off his redshirt late in the season against Kansas State. Hansen did rush for 261 yards last season in limited play.

Josh Smith's departure from the Buffaloes leaves the CU with only junior Scotty McKnight as an experienced wide receiver going into this season. McKnight caught 46 passes for 519 yards and five touchdowns last season. Sophomore Markques Simas sat out last season due to academic problems, and will be suspended for the first two games of 2009 for violating team rules. Senior tight end Riar Greer returns as well, his 68 yard touchdown catch against the Huskers gave him a season total of 183 yards.

The offensive line is young and inexperienced, though many experts rave about the potential. Junior left tackle Nate Solder started all 12 games last season, as did sophomore left guard Blake Behrens. Sophomore Ryan Miller started the first four games at right tackle last season, then suffered a leg injury. He's expected to move to right guard. Two newcomers, center Mike Iltis and right tackle Bryce Givens are expected to jump straight into the starting lineup after sitting out last season.

Only four starters return from the #4 defense in the Big XII last season, none up front. Junior defensive end Marquez Herrod did have 14 tackles and 4 sacks last season. At linebacker, senior middle linebacker Jeff Smart earned second team all-Big XII honors as Colorado's leading tackler. Senior weakside linebacker Shawn Mohler was second on the team with 97 tackles, earning him honorable mention all-Big XII.

In the secondary, senior cornerback Cha'pelle Brown was a standout last season and was joined late in the season by junior cornerback Jimmy Smith, who interecepted the fake field goal pitch against the Huskers. Two part-time sophomore starters return at safety in Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins.

Turnover wasn't just limited to the players. Offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich left for Oregon after spring practice, and wide receivers coach Eric Kiesau was promoted to replace him. Helfrich's failed spread offense is out, and Kiesau's "pro style" offense is in. What does "pro style" mean? In May, Kiesau talked about emphasizing the running game, taking advantage of the running backs and the offensive line as relative strengths. But earlier this week, Kiesau added that not only will the Buffs feature "a downhill, blue-collar run game" but also "an extensive passing game."

Say what? With Cody Hawkins, Tyler Hansen, and only one returning receiver with any experience?

"We're going to get the ball downfield, let our playmakers get vertical. If you just run the ball along the box, they're going to stop you. We're going to play action and be able to throw it, we'll be extremely multiple.

"It could change from week to week - one week we could be in a lot of two-back, the next week be empty (no backs)."

No backs? Is this all a smokescreen to obscure his actual plans, or is he really thinking about asking Colorado's quarterbacks to put the ball up thirty to fourty times a game like a typical "pro-style, NFL offense?"

Here's my take: Colorado will likely try to establish a running game first, much like the New York Giants. They will need to be able to throw the ball effectively, for fear that opposing defenses will stack the box. Effectively doesn't mean frequently, but just enough to keep defenses honest. But that's easier said than done with the Buffs personnel.

So what does that mean for Colorado in 2009? Dan Hawkins told his team that he expects "10 wins". Rock M Nation ran the numbers, and also came up with 10. Ten losses, to be more precise. What's my prediction? Well, I think Rock M is closer than Coach Hawk. I don't think CU can win 10 games with this squad, though 7 or 8 might be possible if the incoming receivers can make an impact, the defensive line solidifies, everyone stays healthy, yadda yadda yadda. (Rock M came up with 10 "if onlys".)

Truth be told, while many experts talk up Colorado, they simply point out that their "breakthrough" would merely get the Buffs to bowl eligibility. And frankly, from my perspective, even that's a reach. If it wasn't for Colorado's budget issues, I'd suggest that Hawkins was on the hot seat this season. Remember that this CU squad nearly lost to Iowa State and Kansas State at home last season. That would have made the Buffs 3-9 last season, in which case would anybody be suggesting Colorado as a breakthrough team? Maybe not, unless they also remember Colorado went 3-8 in 2000.

Poll

What's your prediction for the Nebraska/Colorado game?

The Huskers score early and often, and waive goodbye to Dan Hawkins.

120 votes

It's another nip-and-tuck NU/CU game, with the Huskers pulling one out in Boulder.

106 votes

Colorado finds a way to beat the Huskers at home.

16 votes

Remember 2001? It's Deja Vu all over again.

11 votes

253 votes | Poll has closed

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:00:13 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's Colorado Week! Time to check in on a team with more "ifs" on offense than anybody else on the league, but key recruiting success (a.k.a. Darrell Scott and a couple of linemen) and a decent enough back seven on defense that people can't help but pick them as a sleeper for the fourth straight year.

I'm not going to lie. There are two teams in the Big 12 whose continuously-predicted success has baffled me enough over the years that I can't help but be more of a naysayer than I like to be: Nebraska and Colorado. The insecure Mizzou fan in me says that if Mizzou had either Colorado's or Nebraska's roster, they'd be ranked fourth or fifth in the North, but since it's Nebraska and Colorado, they're given the benefit of the doubt. How true is this? Am I being overly unfair? Am I being extremely fair?

So I can get myself off the hook and leave my own biases at the door, let's take a look at what the BTBS numbers have to say about CU in 2009 to see if I'm right on, or if I'm being unfair and insecure. Or both.

2008

Record: 5-7 (2-6)
S&P+: 192.0 (82nd in the country, 10th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 242-351 (-109)
Conference Scoring Margin: 135-257 (-122)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #70 Colorado State, #75 West Virginia, #79 Kansas State, #104 Iowa State, 1-AA Eastern Washington
Losses: #5 Texas, #10 Missouri, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #21 Nebraska, #37 Florida State, #98 Texas A&M

It was an injury-prone, youth-to-the-extreme season for Colorado in 2008, particularly on offense. A 3-0 start was highlighted by a nice win over West Virginia, but the Buffs finished the season losing seven of nine games, scoring over 20 points just twice in Big 12 play and over 35 just once all season. A decent defense was overshadowed by a putrid offense, the worst in the Big 12 by far.

In the end, CU was 0-6 versus teams ranked above 70th in the S&P+ rankings (though West Virginia was by far the biggest outlier in the rankings--they weren't great, but 75th is shockingly low...the S&P+ rankings really didn't like their defense) and 4-1 versus those ranked below.

In 2007, a shocking win over Oklahoma overshadowed an average season that saw them finish with a #78 ranking and 6-7 record. So while they didn't regress much overall in 2008, they certainly didn't improve. And here's the scary part: Colorado went 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year. In other words, they were very lucky to finish 5-7. A closer-to-.500 record in those games would have led to a 3-9 or 4-8 record overall. As Phil Steele would mention, a +3 net win total in close games is usually a sign that a fall is coming the next year (and yet he picked Colorado above KU and MU anyway...strange).

But even with a little too much success in close games, Colorado was still unlucky when it came to injuries, and they still were playing a ton of young players. So surely they will improve in 2009, right? Right? And if so, how much?

Should this man be smiling?

Coaching

Head Coach: ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins
Record at Colorado: 13-24 (conference: 8-16)
Pythagorean Record: 14.47 wins (-0.5/year)

Who knew that when Dan Hawkins was racking up a 53-11 record in five seasons at Boise State, he was actually holding Boise back (BSU's improved to 35-4 in the last three seasons)? Kidding. Hawkins brought to Boulder an outstanding track record, and while things haven't worked out for him so far--three straight losing seasons for CU for the first time since 1982-84--with the amount of youth on this team, he's still got quite a few people in his corner. And he's insisting on accountability and taking responsibility for CU's struggles, which is refreshing.

It really has been pretty bad in Boulder, though. Not only has CU gone only 13-24 in The Hawk's time in Boulder (11-14 if you're giving him a free pass on his 2006 debut), but they've actually underachieved a bit in terms of Pythagorean projections. And that's not even half the story. As we've learned by now, blowouts skew the projections, and, well, Mizzou has outscored the Buffs by a cool 141-23 in the last three years. So you would think that the Missouri results alone would give them a low Pythagorean projection, causing them to overachieve in overall wins, right? Wrong--despite the Mizzou skew, Colorado has still managed to underachieve.

I can't tell you what kind of hot seat awaits Hawkins if he doesn't at least get back to a bowl this year--I think the 2007 win over OU bought him some extra goodwill that he hasn't quite used up yet--but I can tell you that I have been completely unimpressed. We're not talking about a "The Beef / Ron Prince" level of unimpressed, but CU has not shown any modicum of improvement in three years, and while I'm willing to give him this fourth season to see if Year #3 really was shot down by injuries, I just don't have a lot of confidence in the CU program while Hawkins is at the helm. If I'm being unfair, CU will probably show it this year.

Alright...to the rankings!

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 82.0 (#114)
Success Rate+: 85.0 (#115)
PPP+: 78.9 (#112)

Standard Downs S&P+: 84.0 (#110)
Passing Downs S&P+: 79.9 (#114)

Red Zone S&P+: 97.9 (#71)

Q1 S&P+: 85.0 (#98)
Q2 S&P+: 75.2 (#118)
Q3 S&P+: 77.0 (#117)
Q4 S&P+: 92.9 (#89)

1st Down S&P+: 81.1 (#113)
2nd Down S&P+: 80.5 (#116)
3rd Down S&P+: 76.3 (#116)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 85.9 (#102)
Rushing SR+: 91.7 (#97)
Rushing PPP+: 78.9 (#105)

Standard Downs: 84.2 (#108)
Passing Downs: 94.0 (#83)

Red Zone: 99.7 (#74)

Line Yards+: 91.4 (#97)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 78.9 (#111)
Passing SR+: 78.8 (#117)
Passing PPP+: 79.6 (#106)

Standard Downs: 84.3 (#104)
Passing Downs: 76.8 (#112)

Red Zone: 102.6 (#59)

Adj. Sack Rate: 6.8% (#82)

Here's the question that lingers over all of these numbers: how much can a team improve in one offseason? Because while the odds are decent that CU's offense will indeed improve this year, to say they have a long way to go is an insult to long distances. They were sooooo bad last year. My god. Terrible rushing, terrible passing. Terrible on Standard Downs, terrible on Passing Downs. Terrible in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4. Terrible on 1st downs, 2nd downs, and 3rd downs. The bright side: they were only below-average in the red zone! Seriously, when your best ranking in the above table is 59th (Red Zone Passing), you know things didn't go how you hoped.

With more experience at RB and OL, hopefully better QB play, and fewer overall injuries, Colorado should improve in 2009. How much?

Two ways to look at that: first, if they were to improve back to 2007 levels, that would only get them to 73rd in S&P+. But what if they improve a lot?

Here are the top five most improved offenses from 2007 to 2008 and how much they improved their Close-Game S&P+:

Iowa (+34.0%)
Notre Dame (+30.7%)
Rice (+29.8%)
UAB (+26.8%)
Pittsburgh (+26.6%)

If Colorado were to improve by 34% in 2009, that would give them an S&P+ of 109.9, which would have garnered a ranking of 40th in 2008 and 38th in 2007. So if they improve as much as any offense in the country--really, the best-case scenario--that might be enough to get them into the Top 40 offensively. It's within the realm of possibility, but one does not find a lot of success in life betting on the best-case scenario. Trust me, I've tried.

Quarterback

Ahh, Cody Hawkins. Not sure there has been a more maligned multi-year starter in the country since Reggie Ball was taking snaps for Georgia Tech.

2008 Unit Ranking: #113 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Cody ~~Nolte~~ Hawkins (5'11, 190, Jr.)
~~Taylor~~ Tyler Hansen (6'1, 200, So.)
Clark Evans? (6'5, 230, Fr.)

Here's your chicken v. egg debate. Colorado's QBs were just about the worst among all BCS conference teams (Washington State's QB unit was 118th)--was that because they really were bad, or because everybody around them was either a) injured, b) a freshman, and/or c) not very good? If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Running Backs

Time to prove why you were a five-star recruit, Darrell.

2008 Unit Ranking: #107 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected TB Depth Chart
Darrell Scott (6'1, 200, So.)
Rodney Stewart (5'7, 170, So.)
Brian Lockridge (5'7, 175, So.)
Demetrius Sumler (5'10, 215, Jr.)

Projected FB Depth Chart
Jake Behrens (6'0, 240, Sr.)
Trace Adams (6'0, 210, Sr.)

Both at RMN and Football Outsiders, I've introduced a new measure for evaluating running backs: POE (Points Over Expected). It is exactly what it suggests--a look at a running back's output compared to what would be expected versus the defenses he faced. A positive POE means he produced more than the average running back would have produced. Negative = less than average.

Here are the POE ratings for the three CU running backs who got more than 50 carries in 2008:

Demetrius Sumler (-0.5 POE, 97.8 PPP+, #138 of 269 eligible RBs)
Darrell Scott (-8.1 POE, 73.3 PPP+, #221)
Rodney Stewart (-13.6 POE, 68.1 PPP+, #256)

Ouch.

We all know about Darrell Scott's recruiting profile--he was Rivals.com's #1 running back recruit in the country in 2008--but after Scott's first year in Boulder, we have absolutely no idea what he's capable of. During an injury-prone freshman season, he showed none of the explosiveness or elusiveness that we would expect out of a national Top 10 recruit, but clearly it's not too late. As a whole, you'd like your running back built more like Derrick Washington than Jeremy Maclin, but if Scott can stay healthy, he may (may) be able to live up to the hype. He had 154 yards on 34 carries (4.5 per carry) in spring scrimmages, which is far from amazing, but he's clearly still young.

Beyond Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Meanwhile, since Demetrius Sumler is behind both Scott and Stewart on the depth chart, it appears that he's less productive than both. Wrong. Sumler was deceptively successful in 2008 (well, more successful than Scott/Stewart--overall he was extremely average). He looked very good in the spring, but he appears to be buried on the depth chart behind three sophomores (Scott, Stewart, Brian Lockridge).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Simas is expected to produce immediately. If he doesn't, who will?

2008 Unit Ranking: #110 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Markques Simas (6'2, 200, So.)
Scotty McKnight (5'11, 185, Jr.)
Dustin Ebner (6'1, 175, RSFr.)
Jason Espinoza (5'8, 175, So.)
Andre Simmons (6'3, 210, Jr.)
Cameron Ham (6'1, 200, Jr.)
Ryan Maxwell (5'9, 180, So.)
Kevin Moyd (5'7, 200, Sr.)
Kyle Cefalo (5'10, 165, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Riar Geer (6'4, 250, Sr.)
Ryan Deehan (6'5, 240, So.)
Patrick Devenny (6'3, 240, Sr.)

So Colorado had the 11th worst receiving corps in the nation in 2009, 3rd worst among BCS conference teams (Michigan was 112th, Washington State 118th). Then, after spring ball, they unexpectedly lost their only proven explosive threat*, Josh Smith, to transfer. Well, they might have lost him to transfer--they're allowing him to only accept a scholarship to USC or UCLA, which is just petty, but if neither of those schools offer him a scholarship (sounds like UCLA is looking like a pretty viable option), then I don't know what happens. Does he stay? If he stays, does he play?

* He was far from amazing, but he was Colorado's Jeremy Maclin.

Regardless, a bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.

Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

On the bright side, Colorado does have some decent experience at tight end. Riar Geer (61 career catches, 7 TDs), Patrick Devenny (15 career catches, 3 TDs), and Ryan Deehan (5 catches, 1 TD) have proven to be decent red zone receivers, but none are dangerous enough to garner special attention from a defense. Leave them open, and they'll catch some passes, but they're not going to kill you. Still, though, it's nice having experience at tight end, if for no other reason than you have some help on third downs and in the red zone.

And somehow Kyle Cefalo is of no relation to Jimmy Cefalo. What a disappointment that is.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #102 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Ryan Miller (6'8, 310, So.)
G Blake Behrens (6'3, 290, So.)
T Nate Solder (6'9, 300, Jr.)
T Bryce Givens (6'6, 275, RSFr.)
C Mike Iltis (6'3, 275, So.)
T Matthew Bahr (6'4, 285, So.)
G Devin Head (6'4, 290, Sr.)
C Keenan Stevens (6'2, 285, Jr.)
T Ryan Dannewitz (6'6, 290, RSFr.)
G Shawn Daniels (6'3, 280, So.)

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Summary

A five-star starter at RB, a four-star starter at WR, and a five-star (with at least one four-star) on the offensive line. From a recruiting perspective, there's some top-end talent here. But almost none of the top-end players have proven themselves yet, and until they do, we don't know that they will, right? My best guess for the Colorado offense in 2009 is that it will rebound to around the rankings it found in 2007...sort of. In 2007, they were 95th rushing and 43rd passing--I can see the opposite happening this year, where Colorado does begin to establish a relatively solid running game, but the passing game still holds them back considerably. Seriously, beyond McKnight, the entire WR unit has one career catch. It's hard to ignore that and just assume that things will click there, even with a decent running game.

Whatever Colorado manages to do in 2009, it will likely be because of their linebackers and secondary, and maybe their running game. There are still far too many question marks on the offense to expect much, but if they can stay healthy and rack up the experience, then they might be in pretty decent shape for 2010.

WR Josh Smith and TE Ryan Wallance Leaving Colorado

irish1611 — Sun, 31 May 2009 04:35:37 -0000

Colorado WR/KR Josh Smith - picture by Phil Coale

View full size photo »

All I can really say is "wow." I am in disbelief. Thanks to our loyal reader mam2jd, most of you have read about the decision of WR Josh Smith and TE Ryan Wallace to leave the football program. Wallace, the 6'5" 235 pound redshirt freshman, decided to go his separate way because he was homesick and wanted to be closer to his family in Kentucky. Wallace was currently fifth on the depth chart but three seniors were in front of him so he was in line to have a good chance at seeing time in two years as a sophomore. He never played a down for the Buffs so it is hard to judge the impact he would have had. It's definitely a loss of a player with great size but we never learned what we had on the field.

As for Josh Smith, the junior all purpose player, we saw glimpses and imagined greatness. That ability to achieve new heights on the offensive side of the ball will not be realized with the Buffs. His own self comparisons to former Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin will be left incomplete. Smith has decided to leave Boulder and pursue a music degree in California or Arizona that the University of Colorado does not offer. He was honorable mention All Big 12 last year for his special teams work, something that was indeed special. No matter what you thought of Smith here are the facts: last year he was 9th in the nation in all purpose yards with 1,987. Yes, the 2008 sophomore fumbled, he dropped a few touchdowns, was injured and made some poor judgment plays but losing a guy who contributed 165 yards a game is never a good thing. Couple that with now only two scholarship receivers on the roster in Scotty McKnight and Markques Simas, the situation is now bordering ridiculous. I hope Terdema Ussery and Jarrod Darden, both true freshman who might be at prom or graduating from high school right now, are ready to play.

Smith was most definitely a polarizing figure for the Buffs. I am not going to lie, I loved watching Smith play and figured he might be the type that had a revelation one day & became a complete player. There will always be that question whether Smith really wanted or had the desire to become that complete player. Either way, he won't be competing on Folsom Field. I am shocked. Flat out, he was a playmaker, you can't deny that and the Buffs haven't shown they have a lot of those. He was not a great wide receiver yet but he had the potential to be. If the Buffs had four or five receivers above Smith on the depth chart, this may not be as big of a deal as most are making it but because of the current depth at wideout, it is.

Moving on now and assessing the situation objectively, a few things come to mind right away:

1) I find it hard to believe that pursuing a music career is the only reason for a transfer of this magnitude. If your an outsider looking in at the Colorado Buffaloes, you once again start to wonder what is considered the "normal attrition" that goes on within a program or if their is a deeper issue? Perception effects recruiting, donor gifts, season ticket buyers, etc.

2) This was my first thought when I heard of the news and what guys like Tim Griffin of ESPN will ponder is in regards to the future of RB Darrell Scott and even if he does stay at Colorado, how will this impact his football career at Colorado? A big reason Scott came to Colorado was his uncle Josh Smith and although Kyle Ringo said in his column that this shouldn't have an impact on Scott's status, he is a 19 year old young man who lost his best friend/family member in school. It might not be a big deal now but what about when school starts? Either way, this isn't good for what needs to be our best player in '09. I wouldn't worry about this one too much yet as it might be the first overreaction on this story but a year from now, what if the Buffs don't turn it around to a satisfactory level? What will be the first question most will ask?

You just have to hope their isn't more to the story on this one.

3) Special teams, obviously, takes an immediate hit. Smith had 1,276 yards on kick returns, second in the nation last season. The Buffs already have major questions in every other facet of special teams play, something that probably cost them or severely impacted the results of a game or two last year. The Buffs won't get to 10, 9, 8 or even 7 wins if this part of team doesn't improve.

4) What do the Buffs do now about wide receiver? Probably nothing can be done this summer from an outside perspective. Smith was a starting receiver on the most current depth chart. Kendrick Celestine is supposedly ineligible from his return to the program so he looks to be out of the question. Right now, the Buffs have one receiver who has ever caught a pass in a division one football game. ONE. I don't think bringing in another player right now is going to do anything other than add depth with an athlete that might not be "scholarship worthy." There is pretty much nothing that the staff can do other than hope JUCO transfer Andre Simmons (still not completely qualified for admission), Darden, Ussery, Simas, Jason Espinoza and even Ryan Maxwell are ready to be superior receivers. It was something Colorado was going to have to deal with anyway but this news magnifies it. Can anything else possibly happen to the receiver position?

5) How does all of this effect the team? This was supposed to be the no excuses campaign. The way the players and coaches were talking, this was the "all or nothing" year. The year the turn around takes place. Gone is LB Lynn Katoa, WR Chance Blackmon, Wallace and Smith. Players like S Ray Polk, LB Jon Major, QB Tyler Hansen, DL Curtis Cunningham, OL Blake Behrens, OG Max Tuioti-Mariner are a few who were out or injured this spring. You have two coaches leave the program in Jeff Grimes and Mark Helfrich. Most are happy with the replacements but still, its a change, its a rocking of the boat, something we keep seeing with this program. Last year it was all about injuries and off-the-field issues. I wonder what the moral will be like in the fall time?

I find myself asking what's next? I didn't see this one coming. I wish Josh Smith and Ryan Wallace the best of luck in their future endeavors, wherever they may be. I enjoyed watching Smith with the football in his hands.

Just shocked...I guess I shouldn't be anymore especially with this hidden statement in Ringo's column:

The athletic department has planned several announcements concerning the football program for Monday. The updates will include the status of Hawkins' efforts to fill his coaching staff in the wake of Mark Helfrich's departure to Oregon and player personnel changes, including Smith and Wallace.

That including word might not mean this is over...stay tuned.

Spring Recap: The Offensive Line

irish1611 — Sun, 03 May 2009 13:11:38 -0000

Pre-Spring Thoughts:

Coming into spring ball, all we could really think about was the potential the offensive line had. Last year with the injuries to Ryan Miller, Mike Iltis and Max Tuioti-Mariner as well as other issues that plagued the offensive line, many young Buffs played and gained experience. When you looked at the 2009 roster before the start of spring, there were 12 players that were eligible for any one of the starting spots on the offensive line (that doesn't even count players like C Evan Eastburn and OT Ryan Dannewitz.)That is great depth and with many players getting a taste last year, it was easy to think that all of this competition would make the o-line that much better. Going into camp, you could guess that Ryan Miller (6'8 310 So.) and Nate Solder (6'9" 300 Jr.) had the inside track at both of the tackle positions with the three other spots open for battle. Optimistic was the best way to describe the offensive line.

But that optimism was tempered by the departure of 2008 offensive line coach, Jeff Grimes, to Auburn and the hiring of Denver Johnson, a former head coach of Murray State and Illinois State as well as the ACL injury to one time 2008 starting guard, Max Tuioti-Mariner (6'3" 300 RFr).

Prior to his head coaching stints, Denver Johnson worked his way through the ranks at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State and Oklahoma, gaining important Big 12 experience and establishing himself recruiting-wise in the state of Texas, something that made Buff fans excited.

As for MTM, the ACL injury was his third in as many years, something most of us cannot imagine returning from. Tuioti-Mariner showed why he was a top recruit in 2008 by quickly inserting himself into the starting lineup before he was lost early the season with his second ACL injury. He, as well as Ryan Miller, received a medical redshirt for last season, something that only increased the optimism around the future of the offensive line. MTM is still determined to come back and coach Dan Hawkins thinks that he can be ready for fall.

click after the jump to read the rest of the offensive line recap...

Post Spring Thoughts:

Starting with Denver Johnson, it seems like he has fit in extremely well with the offensive line as well as pleasing the fan base saying the Buffs were going to be more aggressive, playing on the opponents side of the ball. Johnson learned the terminology of the offensive line instead of instilling his own to keep the learning curve down, focusing more on changes in technique from the Grimes era, something that will pay dividends in the fall. Basically, Johnson's goal is turn the Buffs into a smash mouth team, something that fits the change in the overall offensive scheme. I think 9 out of 10 Buff fans would give an enthusiastic two thumbs up for the Denver Johnson hire thus far, with a perfect 10 coming if he can turn heads recruiting Texas.

On to the players. The first day of spring ball, the starting lineup was Solder at left tackle, Matt Bahr at left guard (6'4" 285 So.), Mike Iltis at center (6'3" 275 So.), Miller at right guard and initially surprising, Bryce Givens at right tackle (6'6" 275 R-Fr.). The move of Miller to guard and redshirt freshman, Bryce Givens, to right tackle came as a surprise to many Buff fans considering Miller's past starting experience at tackle but Denver Johnson stuck to his word; he wants the five best offensive lineman on the field. If you remember correctly, Givens was a four star recruit in 2008 but was about 250 pounds and had concussion issues. It looks like he has put the health concerns behind him and with the addition of 25 pounds to his 6'6" frame, he made himself a serious contender for the starting tackle spot. Solder and Givens are both big, athletic guys on the edge and should be a successful mainstay for the Buffs the next two years. At the conclusion of camp, Solder, Givens, Miller and Iltis found themselves in the same spots while the left guard spot is still up for grabs, in my opinion. Johnson is still trying to get a feel for all of his guys which would explain three different starters at the guard position this spring from Bahr to Sione Tau (6'5" 325 So.) to Ethan Adkins (6'4" 295 So.). Expect as many as six players battling for that one guard spot with the three I mentioned above as well as Shawn Daniels (6'3" 280 So.), Tuioti-Mariner and Blake Behrens (6'3" 290 So.) (all three out due to injury this spring) to have their shot.

As far as the performance this spring, it was a nice progression of results. With a new offensive line coach, Miller moving to guard, new starters at the other guard position as well as center and right tackle, everybody had to adapt and it took time to see the results on the field. I do have to say I am excited about the offensive line especially if we can solidify the guard spot. Hopefully Tuioti-Mariner or Behrens, who can gained experience last year, can step in and be a starter for the next three to four years.

The running game failed to really get going in the initial two scrimmages. The first scrimmage, the offense rushed for only 108 yards on 33 carries, good for a 3.3 average. No running back averaged over 4 yards a clip. The second scrimmage was not much better: 29 carries, 102 yards for an average of 3.5 ypc. The spring game was a different story, though. You could tell that the line had progressed and were more comfortable with the offense and the scheme. In a perfect way to end the spring session, the Buffs ran 50 times for 310 yards, an average of 6.2 per carry. All running backs went for over 5.5 yards an attempt, something that we expected based on the talent of the offensive line.

Injuries:

OG Max Tuioti-Mariner out for entire spring, OG Devin Head limited this spring, played in spring game, OG Blake Behrens limited/out this spring, OG Shawn Daniels limited/out this spring, OL Sione Tau did not play in spring game, missed a few practices for personal reasons after starting at left guard for the second week of spring. All expected to be ready for fall ball, doubt about MTM being ready.

Player(s) Who Emerged:

C Mike Iltis and RT Bryce Givens. Iltis has filled in nicely for last year's starter and stalwart, Daniel Sanders. Iltis is still learning this position and getting comfortable making the line calls but he never relinquished the center spot all spring. As for Givens, enough was said above about his successful offseason. Both Givens and Solder should be fun to watch at the tackle spots.

Final Assessment:

All things still look on the up and up. This squad is deep and if MTM comes back healthy, watch out. This unit has all the talent and it looks like the coaching to be very successful in the Big 12. A lot will be on the shoulders of the offensive line with a depleted wide receiver corp and a duo at quarterback that probably isn't going to beat anybody by themselves. The way this group goes, is the way the offense goes in 2009. The best part is they are still young, but experienced from last season!

Assessing Our Team For the Opponent

irish1611 — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 16:38:37 -0000

The guys over at Corn Nation, the Nebraska blog on SBNation, asked us to put together a small synopsis of the Buffs going into spring ball so that they could educate their fan base on what to hear out of camp this year. I thought it would be good to share so you can see what I am looking at going into camp.

Corn Nation: Who's Gone: (What Star Players Are Gone in 2009)

Biggest loss on Offense: Center Daniel Sanders. Right now the Buffs have three or four guys who can probably step in but not like Sanders did. He was a big performer for the Buffs and right now, no one has any experience at the position worth mentioning. Look for Mike Iltis, Blake Behrens or Evan Eastburn to battle for the starting spot this offseason with the favorite being Iltis who is recovering from an ACL injury. Other than that, the Buffs lose no one of any significant value on offense from last year's team. Same goes for next year as Colorado will only lose a starting tight end, a fullback and an offensive guard. This offense will have a lot of time to grow together.

Biggest loss on Defense: CU lost a few significant senior starters from 2008 although many underachieved. On the underachiever side you can put DT George Hypolite, DT Brandon Nicolas, DE Maurice Lucas and S Daniel Dykes. LB Brad Jones and S Ryan Walters will be the hardest players to replace. Jones led the team in sacks last year and was the only player that could get any sort of consistent pressure. The good thing for the Buffs is that linebacker is one position we have recruited well at and have many candidates to replace him. B.J. Beatty will provide the Buffs with Jones-like pass rush skills. Beatty is one of those guys who flies around and makes plays. Also look for redshirt freshman LB Jon Major and LB Doug Rippy to see time and with the Buffs returning All Big 12 players in LB Shaun Mohler and LB Jeff Smart, linebacker should not be a concern. The only concern on defense in my mind, and it is a big one, is defensive line. Even though Hypolite, Nicolas and Lucas underachieved last year, they were the only guys we had and the only guys we saw play with any significant time. This year, we are flying blind and all positions are up for grabs. Hawkins got two big recruits in 5* DE Nick Kasa and 4* DL Edward Nuckols in 2009 but whether they will be ready to go physically is never a guarantee. Cornerback should be solid with plenty of depth and although the Buffs lose both safeties, Walters and Dykes had plenty of injuries last year giving replacements S Anthony Perkins and S Patrick Mahnke time to get a feel for the spots as freshman. Walters was a leader of the defense as well as a pretty hard nosed ball player so that will need to be filled in 2009.

Corn Nation: Who To Watch: (The best guys on your team, and maybe your quarterback if you have a new one)

see more after the jump...

Right now as Buff fans we get really optimistic before the season starts about a lot of players, we always do that! Here are a few:

Offense:

RB Darrell Scott - has dropped all the excess weight he had carried last year as a freshman, down to his high school weight of 205 pounds (was at 225), is said to be healty again, running a 4.4 forty, got mentioned in a recent interview with our strength and conditioning coach saying he was the hardest working player this offseason and really made a point to show everyone that he is ready to break out in 2009. I have no doubt that 2008 will be a distant memory after this season.

RB Rodney Stewart - hard not to have him on this list even though I think Darrell Scott will replace him as the starting back. Although he broke his leg late in the season, he worked hard this offseason and tested out as the strongest player pound for pound on the team. No questioning what he did last season was pretty amazing for a freshman (can't you tell that we had a lot of freshman playing last season...it makes me sick typing this). This running back combo could be special for years to come.

WR Markques Simas - was ineligible last season but is said to have a strong GPA this year. He was a four star commit in 2007 and should be the top play maker on the edge in 2009. It has been reported that no one is even close to his talent level at wide receiver and he just torched the defensive starters last year playing on the scout team.

OT's Ryan Miller and Nate Solder - they will anchor this line, a line that if healthy, has the talent to be a top 3 or 4 squad in the conference. Both of these guys have the build (6'9" 300+) and the athleticism (Solder ran a sub 5.0 forty this offseason) to be pro prospects.

QB Tyler Hansen - because we need a change. The offseason should do wonders for him learning the playbook and gaining confidence controlling the offense. People forget that last year he was strictly the scout team quarterback until about two weeks before the Kansas State game. Basically, he had to learn the Colorado playbook in a few short days. He is taller, has better feet and a better arm than Cody Hawkins. The only thing that we need to see is his ability to grasp the offense and the leadership that goes along with being the starting Q.

WR Josh Smith - was third in the Big 12 last year in all purpose yards and ninth in the nation. Need a more consistent performance from him but if he dedicates himself, he has already shown that he can be explosive and a game changer.

Defense:

LB Shaun Mohler: impressive last year in his first season as a JUCO transfer. Became a starter after the second game and never gave it up. I expect second team All Big 12 or better this year for Mohler. Was honorable mention last year. He plays down hill and is my pick for CU's defensive player of the year.

LB Jeff Smart: Second team All Big 12 linebacker last year. He isn't the most gifted linebacker the Buffs have but he is the most productive. He might get pushed by some of the younger, bigger guys this year but I expect another strong season from him.

CB Jimmy Smith: he will be the first cornerback selected out of the Big 12 in 2010's NFL draft. He has great size (6'3" 200 pounds) and is by far and away the most athletic player on CU's roster. Husker fans should remember Smith after last year's game.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: an All Big 12 player last year. What he lacks in size, he offsets with consistent play. With the return of 2007 starter Ben Burney from injury as well as the emergence of backups Jalil Brown and Anthony Wright, Cha'pelle will have his hands full but I expect him to be the day one starter based on last season.

Corn Nation: Under the Radar players who might make an impact this season:

OL Bryce Givens - a former Nebraska commit, Givens has added 25 pounds this offseason to go along with his great athleticism. He should push for a starting spot if he can stay healthy.

LB's Doug Rippy and Jon Major - part of the big 2008 LB recruiting trio, look for Rippy (who is physically ready to play at the college level) and Jon Major to push for time. Unfortunately, the cream of the crop in 2008, LB Lynn Katoa, is struggling both on and off the field and it wouldn't be a surprise if he never suited up for the Buffs.

DL Conrad Obi - honestly, we have no idea who is going to make up three or even all of our starting defensive line spots. I can't even make an educated guess but Obi is said to have all the physical talent but now it is time for the sophomore to turn it into production. CU is very young on the D-line.

DL Curtis Cunningham - he saw the most action of any player as a backup last year which was pretty amazing considering he was a 260 pound true freshman. If I had to put my money on one player starting next year on the defensive line, it would be him. He showed in limited action that he can make plays.