SB Nation - Matthew Bahr

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Film Session: The Game Winning Touchdown Against Kansas

irish1611 — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 02:19:06 -0000

My favorite play of the Kansas game and it just shows you that if this team executes, beautiful plays can follow. This run features three blockers - TE Riar Geer ( the star of the final drive after the false start penalty on the first play), OT Ryan Miller and OG Matt Bahr - who perform their tasks perfectly, giving Rodney Stewart a wide open hole for the go ahead touchdown.

The Buffs line up in a double tight end formation with twins to the left. Kansas comes out in their base 4 - 3 set but shade their linebackers and safeties over to the strong side of the field (towards the bottom of the screen). The play call is an off tackle handoff to Rodney Stewart towards the bottom of the screen. Both the backside guard and tackle, Matt Bahr and Ryan Miller, are pulling to escort Stewart through the hole.

Riar Geer has the most important block to get the play going. The bottom tight end, his job is to outside release and get his head on the outside shoulder of the defensive end across from him and move him towards the middle of the field. If he lets the defensive end get outside of him or push him up field, one of the pulling offensive lineman will have to double team the defensive end leaving a Kansas defender unaccounted for. Riar Geer has the defensive end (#3), Matt Bahr will pull around and have responsibility for the first man who cross the line of scrimmage which will be the outside linebacker (#2) and Ryan Miller will have the next guy to cross the line of scrimmage and show his face which will be the middle linebacker (#1).

Riar Geer may have the most important block at the point of attack but if the other three lineman don't handle their players, the play is shot and the pulling guard/tackle will have to change their plan and help out. Fortunately, for the Buffs everyone else on the line does their job...and it is a well executed play.

A little hard to see but look at Riar Geer in the yellow circle. That is a picture perfect seal block, shielding a collapsing defensive end and pushing him back into the middle of the field with Geer keeping his back to the hole where Rodney Stewart needs to go. Just a great job. As expected, you can see how the play is shaping up. Matt Bahr and Ryan Miller are pulling from the backside of the line (top of the screen) and the first two players in the hole, just as you draw it up, is the outside linebacker and the middle linebacker. As an offensive coordinator, you love the matchup: Two on two for the score as Riar Geer and the rest of the offensive line did their job.

As you can see, Matt Bahr takes down the outside linebacker and Ryan Miller seals the middle linebacker, creating a great hole for Rodney Stewart to work through. Look at Riar Geer (yellow arrow). This is why a few people believe he can be an NFL prospect. That is a defensive end who he just manhandled. He is still engaged and blocking him away from the play well after Stewart passes him. That is a big time block by a senior and a captain.

Touchdown Buffs. Great to see this sort of execution late with the game on the line. They were in the redzone, smelt blood and dominated up front.

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:00:13 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's Colorado Week! Time to check in on a team with more "ifs" on offense than anybody else on the league, but key recruiting success (a.k.a. Darrell Scott and a couple of linemen) and a decent enough back seven on defense that people can't help but pick them as a sleeper for the fourth straight year.

I'm not going to lie. There are two teams in the Big 12 whose continuously-predicted success has baffled me enough over the years that I can't help but be more of a naysayer than I like to be: Nebraska and Colorado. The insecure Mizzou fan in me says that if Mizzou had either Colorado's or Nebraska's roster, they'd be ranked fourth or fifth in the North, but since it's Nebraska and Colorado, they're given the benefit of the doubt. How true is this? Am I being overly unfair? Am I being extremely fair?

So I can get myself off the hook and leave my own biases at the door, let's take a look at what the BTBS numbers have to say about CU in 2009 to see if I'm right on, or if I'm being unfair and insecure. Or both.

2008

Record: 5-7 (2-6)
S&P+: 192.0 (82nd in the country, 10th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 242-351 (-109)
Conference Scoring Margin: 135-257 (-122)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #70 Colorado State, #75 West Virginia, #79 Kansas State, #104 Iowa State, 1-AA Eastern Washington
Losses: #5 Texas, #10 Missouri, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #21 Nebraska, #37 Florida State, #98 Texas A&M

It was an injury-prone, youth-to-the-extreme season for Colorado in 2008, particularly on offense. A 3-0 start was highlighted by a nice win over West Virginia, but the Buffs finished the season losing seven of nine games, scoring over 20 points just twice in Big 12 play and over 35 just once all season. A decent defense was overshadowed by a putrid offense, the worst in the Big 12 by far.

In the end, CU was 0-6 versus teams ranked above 70th in the S&P+ rankings (though West Virginia was by far the biggest outlier in the rankings--they weren't great, but 75th is shockingly low...the S&P+ rankings really didn't like their defense) and 4-1 versus those ranked below.

In 2007, a shocking win over Oklahoma overshadowed an average season that saw them finish with a #78 ranking and 6-7 record. So while they didn't regress much overall in 2008, they certainly didn't improve. And here's the scary part: Colorado went 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year. In other words, they were very lucky to finish 5-7. A closer-to-.500 record in those games would have led to a 3-9 or 4-8 record overall. As Phil Steele would mention, a +3 net win total in close games is usually a sign that a fall is coming the next year (and yet he picked Colorado above KU and MU anyway...strange).

But even with a little too much success in close games, Colorado was still unlucky when it came to injuries, and they still were playing a ton of young players. So surely they will improve in 2009, right? Right? And if so, how much?

Should this man be smiling?

Coaching

Head Coach: ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins
Record at Colorado: 13-24 (conference: 8-16)
Pythagorean Record: 14.47 wins (-0.5/year)

Who knew that when Dan Hawkins was racking up a 53-11 record in five seasons at Boise State, he was actually holding Boise back (BSU's improved to 35-4 in the last three seasons)? Kidding. Hawkins brought to Boulder an outstanding track record, and while things haven't worked out for him so far--three straight losing seasons for CU for the first time since 1982-84--with the amount of youth on this team, he's still got quite a few people in his corner. And he's insisting on accountability and taking responsibility for CU's struggles, which is refreshing.

It really has been pretty bad in Boulder, though. Not only has CU gone only 13-24 in The Hawk's time in Boulder (11-14 if you're giving him a free pass on his 2006 debut), but they've actually underachieved a bit in terms of Pythagorean projections. And that's not even half the story. As we've learned by now, blowouts skew the projections, and, well, Mizzou has outscored the Buffs by a cool 141-23 in the last three years. So you would think that the Missouri results alone would give them a low Pythagorean projection, causing them to overachieve in overall wins, right? Wrong--despite the Mizzou skew, Colorado has still managed to underachieve.

I can't tell you what kind of hot seat awaits Hawkins if he doesn't at least get back to a bowl this year--I think the 2007 win over OU bought him some extra goodwill that he hasn't quite used up yet--but I can tell you that I have been completely unimpressed. We're not talking about a "The Beef / Ron Prince" level of unimpressed, but CU has not shown any modicum of improvement in three years, and while I'm willing to give him this fourth season to see if Year #3 really was shot down by injuries, I just don't have a lot of confidence in the CU program while Hawkins is at the helm. If I'm being unfair, CU will probably show it this year.

Alright...to the rankings!

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 82.0 (#114)
Success Rate+: 85.0 (#115)
PPP+: 78.9 (#112)

Standard Downs S&P+: 84.0 (#110)
Passing Downs S&P+: 79.9 (#114)

Red Zone S&P+: 97.9 (#71)

Q1 S&P+: 85.0 (#98)
Q2 S&P+: 75.2 (#118)
Q3 S&P+: 77.0 (#117)
Q4 S&P+: 92.9 (#89)

1st Down S&P+: 81.1 (#113)
2nd Down S&P+: 80.5 (#116)
3rd Down S&P+: 76.3 (#116)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 85.9 (#102)
Rushing SR+: 91.7 (#97)
Rushing PPP+: 78.9 (#105)

Standard Downs: 84.2 (#108)
Passing Downs: 94.0 (#83)

Red Zone: 99.7 (#74)

Line Yards+: 91.4 (#97)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 78.9 (#111)
Passing SR+: 78.8 (#117)
Passing PPP+: 79.6 (#106)

Standard Downs: 84.3 (#104)
Passing Downs: 76.8 (#112)

Red Zone: 102.6 (#59)

Adj. Sack Rate: 6.8% (#82)

Here's the question that lingers over all of these numbers: how much can a team improve in one offseason? Because while the odds are decent that CU's offense will indeed improve this year, to say they have a long way to go is an insult to long distances. They were sooooo bad last year. My god. Terrible rushing, terrible passing. Terrible on Standard Downs, terrible on Passing Downs. Terrible in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4. Terrible on 1st downs, 2nd downs, and 3rd downs. The bright side: they were only below-average in the red zone! Seriously, when your best ranking in the above table is 59th (Red Zone Passing), you know things didn't go how you hoped.

With more experience at RB and OL, hopefully better QB play, and fewer overall injuries, Colorado should improve in 2009. How much?

Two ways to look at that: first, if they were to improve back to 2007 levels, that would only get them to 73rd in S&P+. But what if they improve a lot?

Here are the top five most improved offenses from 2007 to 2008 and how much they improved their Close-Game S&P+:

Iowa (+34.0%)
Notre Dame (+30.7%)
Rice (+29.8%)
UAB (+26.8%)
Pittsburgh (+26.6%)

If Colorado were to improve by 34% in 2009, that would give them an S&P+ of 109.9, which would have garnered a ranking of 40th in 2008 and 38th in 2007. So if they improve as much as any offense in the country--really, the best-case scenario--that might be enough to get them into the Top 40 offensively. It's within the realm of possibility, but one does not find a lot of success in life betting on the best-case scenario. Trust me, I've tried.

Quarterback

Ahh, Cody Hawkins. Not sure there has been a more maligned multi-year starter in the country since Reggie Ball was taking snaps for Georgia Tech.

2008 Unit Ranking: #113 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Cody ~~Nolte~~ Hawkins (5'11, 190, Jr.)
~~Taylor~~ Tyler Hansen (6'1, 200, So.)
Clark Evans? (6'5, 230, Fr.)

Here's your chicken v. egg debate. Colorado's QBs were just about the worst among all BCS conference teams (Washington State's QB unit was 118th)--was that because they really were bad, or because everybody around them was either a) injured, b) a freshman, and/or c) not very good? If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Running Backs

Time to prove why you were a five-star recruit, Darrell.

2008 Unit Ranking: #107 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected TB Depth Chart
Darrell Scott (6'1, 200, So.)
Rodney Stewart (5'7, 170, So.)
Brian Lockridge (5'7, 175, So.)
Demetrius Sumler (5'10, 215, Jr.)

Projected FB Depth Chart
Jake Behrens (6'0, 240, Sr.)
Trace Adams (6'0, 210, Sr.)

Both at RMN and Football Outsiders, I've introduced a new measure for evaluating running backs: POE (Points Over Expected). It is exactly what it suggests--a look at a running back's output compared to what would be expected versus the defenses he faced. A positive POE means he produced more than the average running back would have produced. Negative = less than average.

Here are the POE ratings for the three CU running backs who got more than 50 carries in 2008:

Demetrius Sumler (-0.5 POE, 97.8 PPP+, #138 of 269 eligible RBs)
Darrell Scott (-8.1 POE, 73.3 PPP+, #221)
Rodney Stewart (-13.6 POE, 68.1 PPP+, #256)

Ouch.

We all know about Darrell Scott's recruiting profile--he was Rivals.com's #1 running back recruit in the country in 2008--but after Scott's first year in Boulder, we have absolutely no idea what he's capable of. During an injury-prone freshman season, he showed none of the explosiveness or elusiveness that we would expect out of a national Top 10 recruit, but clearly it's not too late. As a whole, you'd like your running back built more like Derrick Washington than Jeremy Maclin, but if Scott can stay healthy, he may (may) be able to live up to the hype. He had 154 yards on 34 carries (4.5 per carry) in spring scrimmages, which is far from amazing, but he's clearly still young.

Beyond Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Meanwhile, since Demetrius Sumler is behind both Scott and Stewart on the depth chart, it appears that he's less productive than both. Wrong. Sumler was deceptively successful in 2008 (well, more successful than Scott/Stewart--overall he was extremely average). He looked very good in the spring, but he appears to be buried on the depth chart behind three sophomores (Scott, Stewart, Brian Lockridge).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Simas is expected to produce immediately. If he doesn't, who will?

2008 Unit Ranking: #110 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Markques Simas (6'2, 200, So.)
Scotty McKnight (5'11, 185, Jr.)
Dustin Ebner (6'1, 175, RSFr.)
Jason Espinoza (5'8, 175, So.)
Andre Simmons (6'3, 210, Jr.)
Cameron Ham (6'1, 200, Jr.)
Ryan Maxwell (5'9, 180, So.)
Kevin Moyd (5'7, 200, Sr.)
Kyle Cefalo (5'10, 165, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Riar Geer (6'4, 250, Sr.)
Ryan Deehan (6'5, 240, So.)
Patrick Devenny (6'3, 240, Sr.)

So Colorado had the 11th worst receiving corps in the nation in 2009, 3rd worst among BCS conference teams (Michigan was 112th, Washington State 118th). Then, after spring ball, they unexpectedly lost their only proven explosive threat*, Josh Smith, to transfer. Well, they might have lost him to transfer--they're allowing him to only accept a scholarship to USC or UCLA, which is just petty, but if neither of those schools offer him a scholarship (sounds like UCLA is looking like a pretty viable option), then I don't know what happens. Does he stay? If he stays, does he play?

* He was far from amazing, but he was Colorado's Jeremy Maclin.

Regardless, a bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.

Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

On the bright side, Colorado does have some decent experience at tight end. Riar Geer (61 career catches, 7 TDs), Patrick Devenny (15 career catches, 3 TDs), and Ryan Deehan (5 catches, 1 TD) have proven to be decent red zone receivers, but none are dangerous enough to garner special attention from a defense. Leave them open, and they'll catch some passes, but they're not going to kill you. Still, though, it's nice having experience at tight end, if for no other reason than you have some help on third downs and in the red zone.

And somehow Kyle Cefalo is of no relation to Jimmy Cefalo. What a disappointment that is.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #102 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Ryan Miller (6'8, 310, So.)
G Blake Behrens (6'3, 290, So.)
T Nate Solder (6'9, 300, Jr.)
T Bryce Givens (6'6, 275, RSFr.)
C Mike Iltis (6'3, 275, So.)
T Matthew Bahr (6'4, 285, So.)
G Devin Head (6'4, 290, Sr.)
C Keenan Stevens (6'2, 285, Jr.)
T Ryan Dannewitz (6'6, 290, RSFr.)
G Shawn Daniels (6'3, 280, So.)

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Summary

A five-star starter at RB, a four-star starter at WR, and a five-star (with at least one four-star) on the offensive line. From a recruiting perspective, there's some top-end talent here. But almost none of the top-end players have proven themselves yet, and until they do, we don't know that they will, right? My best guess for the Colorado offense in 2009 is that it will rebound to around the rankings it found in 2007...sort of. In 2007, they were 95th rushing and 43rd passing--I can see the opposite happening this year, where Colorado does begin to establish a relatively solid running game, but the passing game still holds them back considerably. Seriously, beyond McKnight, the entire WR unit has one career catch. It's hard to ignore that and just assume that things will click there, even with a decent running game.

Whatever Colorado manages to do in 2009, it will likely be because of their linebackers and secondary, and maybe their running game. There are still far too many question marks on the offense to expect much, but if they can stay healthy and rack up the experience, then they might be in pretty decent shape for 2010.

Spring Recap: The Offensive Line

irish1611 — Sun, 03 May 2009 13:11:38 -0000

Pre-Spring Thoughts:

Coming into spring ball, all we could really think about was the potential the offensive line had. Last year with the injuries to Ryan Miller, Mike Iltis and Max Tuioti-Mariner as well as other issues that plagued the offensive line, many young Buffs played and gained experience. When you looked at the 2009 roster before the start of spring, there were 12 players that were eligible for any one of the starting spots on the offensive line (that doesn't even count players like C Evan Eastburn and OT Ryan Dannewitz.)That is great depth and with many players getting a taste last year, it was easy to think that all of this competition would make the o-line that much better. Going into camp, you could guess that Ryan Miller (6'8 310 So.) and Nate Solder (6'9" 300 Jr.) had the inside track at both of the tackle positions with the three other spots open for battle. Optimistic was the best way to describe the offensive line.

But that optimism was tempered by the departure of 2008 offensive line coach, Jeff Grimes, to Auburn and the hiring of Denver Johnson, a former head coach of Murray State and Illinois State as well as the ACL injury to one time 2008 starting guard, Max Tuioti-Mariner (6'3" 300 RFr).

Prior to his head coaching stints, Denver Johnson worked his way through the ranks at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State and Oklahoma, gaining important Big 12 experience and establishing himself recruiting-wise in the state of Texas, something that made Buff fans excited.

As for MTM, the ACL injury was his third in as many years, something most of us cannot imagine returning from. Tuioti-Mariner showed why he was a top recruit in 2008 by quickly inserting himself into the starting lineup before he was lost early the season with his second ACL injury. He, as well as Ryan Miller, received a medical redshirt for last season, something that only increased the optimism around the future of the offensive line. MTM is still determined to come back and coach Dan Hawkins thinks that he can be ready for fall.

click after the jump to read the rest of the offensive line recap...

Post Spring Thoughts:

Starting with Denver Johnson, it seems like he has fit in extremely well with the offensive line as well as pleasing the fan base saying the Buffs were going to be more aggressive, playing on the opponents side of the ball. Johnson learned the terminology of the offensive line instead of instilling his own to keep the learning curve down, focusing more on changes in technique from the Grimes era, something that will pay dividends in the fall. Basically, Johnson's goal is turn the Buffs into a smash mouth team, something that fits the change in the overall offensive scheme. I think 9 out of 10 Buff fans would give an enthusiastic two thumbs up for the Denver Johnson hire thus far, with a perfect 10 coming if he can turn heads recruiting Texas.

On to the players. The first day of spring ball, the starting lineup was Solder at left tackle, Matt Bahr at left guard (6'4" 285 So.), Mike Iltis at center (6'3" 275 So.), Miller at right guard and initially surprising, Bryce Givens at right tackle (6'6" 275 R-Fr.). The move of Miller to guard and redshirt freshman, Bryce Givens, to right tackle came as a surprise to many Buff fans considering Miller's past starting experience at tackle but Denver Johnson stuck to his word; he wants the five best offensive lineman on the field. If you remember correctly, Givens was a four star recruit in 2008 but was about 250 pounds and had concussion issues. It looks like he has put the health concerns behind him and with the addition of 25 pounds to his 6'6" frame, he made himself a serious contender for the starting tackle spot. Solder and Givens are both big, athletic guys on the edge and should be a successful mainstay for the Buffs the next two years. At the conclusion of camp, Solder, Givens, Miller and Iltis found themselves in the same spots while the left guard spot is still up for grabs, in my opinion. Johnson is still trying to get a feel for all of his guys which would explain three different starters at the guard position this spring from Bahr to Sione Tau (6'5" 325 So.) to Ethan Adkins (6'4" 295 So.). Expect as many as six players battling for that one guard spot with the three I mentioned above as well as Shawn Daniels (6'3" 280 So.), Tuioti-Mariner and Blake Behrens (6'3" 290 So.) (all three out due to injury this spring) to have their shot.

As far as the performance this spring, it was a nice progression of results. With a new offensive line coach, Miller moving to guard, new starters at the other guard position as well as center and right tackle, everybody had to adapt and it took time to see the results on the field. I do have to say I am excited about the offensive line especially if we can solidify the guard spot. Hopefully Tuioti-Mariner or Behrens, who can gained experience last year, can step in and be a starter for the next three to four years.

The running game failed to really get going in the initial two scrimmages. The first scrimmage, the offense rushed for only 108 yards on 33 carries, good for a 3.3 average. No running back averaged over 4 yards a clip. The second scrimmage was not much better: 29 carries, 102 yards for an average of 3.5 ypc. The spring game was a different story, though. You could tell that the line had progressed and were more comfortable with the offense and the scheme. In a perfect way to end the spring session, the Buffs ran 50 times for 310 yards, an average of 6.2 per carry. All running backs went for over 5.5 yards an attempt, something that we expected based on the talent of the offensive line.

Injuries:

OG Max Tuioti-Mariner out for entire spring, OG Devin Head limited this spring, played in spring game, OG Blake Behrens limited/out this spring, OG Shawn Daniels limited/out this spring, OL Sione Tau did not play in spring game, missed a few practices for personal reasons after starting at left guard for the second week of spring. All expected to be ready for fall ball, doubt about MTM being ready.

Player(s) Who Emerged:

C Mike Iltis and RT Bryce Givens. Iltis has filled in nicely for last year's starter and stalwart, Daniel Sanders. Iltis is still learning this position and getting comfortable making the line calls but he never relinquished the center spot all spring. As for Givens, enough was said above about his successful offseason. Both Givens and Solder should be fun to watch at the tackle spots.

Final Assessment:

All things still look on the up and up. This squad is deep and if MTM comes back healthy, watch out. This unit has all the talent and it looks like the coaching to be very successful in the Big 12. A lot will be on the shoulders of the offensive line with a depleted wide receiver corp and a duo at quarterback that probably isn't going to beat anybody by themselves. The way this group goes, is the way the offense goes in 2009. The best part is they are still young, but experienced from last season!

Preliminary Spring Ball Review: Day 1

irish1611 — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 01:34:42 -0000

I have some other commitments tonight so there will be a full report tomorrow but I knew that it would be bush league to keep you hanging out there so here are a few bullet points about the afternoon:

We were only allowed to stand in the south end zone so most of the close viewing was the offense particularly the offensive line. The defense was well hidden towards the other side of the field. We were in the bubble, I would say about 25 - 40 people showed up, of course filled with the media folks (Ringo, Adam from Rivals, Dan Johnson, etc)
I definitely got stopped by the SID department from taking notes, camera use and phone use. They were really nice about it but rules are rules. We will try to get media passes.
Shorts and t-shirts today.
Cody Hawkins got most of the first team reps, then it went Tyler Hansen and Matt Ballenger. I thought all looked good at times and a little rusty at times. That should be expected on the first day. No cameras on the helmets, just tape. It is hard not to like Hawkins for his energy, excitement and leadership. Every drill he was the first one there and at the end of the practice, regardless of position, he was the first one to finish conditioning drills. He just has fun and loves to play. I thought Hansen was the most athletic looking. Good arm, tight spiral. All three will improve, it is hard on day one. Ballenger and Hansen had towels under their armpits most of the day during throwing drills. They must want them to stay more compact in their motion. I like Hansen's ease of motion much more than Hawkins right now but nothing will be learned until the scrimmages. In 7-on-7 drills, the defense dominated, often forcing the quarterback to dump the ball underneath or run. From what I saw, I thought the back seven on defense look solid and athletic.
Quote of the day was when EVERYONE (QB's included) on the team was doing form tackling drills, Coach Hawkins was giving pointers about how to swing the arms through and said "its just like last year, don't be afraid you aren't going to punch him in the sack."
Starting offensive line consisted of Nate Solder at left tackle, Matt Bahr at left guard, Mike Iltis at center, Ryan Miller at right guard and Bryce Givens at right tackle. I think it is Iltis job to lose as he was the guy getting the most reps. Nate Solder is a monster and every time you would look away, you would hear the pads pop and know it was him. He was the most aggressive of any lineman and he really got a good push off the line. I like Denver Johnson, he was really working the lineman. Bedell was there as well chiming in every so often but certainly stayed a little ways back to not get on Johnson's toes. Johnson spent a large part of his time tutoring Bryce Givens, making him do things over to get him to learn, and really congratulating him when he did something well. I think the Buffs have big plans for Givens based on what I saw today. Solder and Givens definitely were the guys that stuck out the most today.
Darrell Scott looks trim and fantastic. Great footspeed and the quickness overall was there. He looks a ton better than he did last fall where he looked more like a power back. He looks quicker for sure. Rodney Stewart does what Rodney Stewart does...and that is impress. Fast, strong, hits the hole hard, would run down the wide receivers. He is a hussler in every sense of the word and outworks everyone. We need to find a place for Lockridge this season. He has unbelievable quicks, the way he turns that corner is amazing. I think if you get him in a little bit of space, he can go the distance. Again, it is easy to look good in shorts but the running backs did not disappoint today.
Nothing too new on the wide receiver front. Simas looked good for the most part. He missed a few assignments and one assistant coach had to get on him a little bit for being slow after the catch. He will be an upgrade at the position. Josh Smith always looks good in shorts. Fast, took a slant route 80 yards for a touchdown on Burney in one on one drills. McKnight is Mr. Consistent and Blackmon got a lot of time today. Those are pretty much the four receivers we have now. Sort of scary if one of them goes down to injury.
As for the play calling...Hawkins was never in the shotgun. They sprinkled the gun in with Ballenger and Hansen. A ton of end arounds called today, probably the play they called the most. I don't think we should freak out about it yet because I think it was strictly to get the lineman spread out in their blocks but it is still in the playbook and every wideout and running back ran that play. A couple of times, Darrell Scott and Speedy Stewart were in together. They would flex Scott out to a flanker spot and either run a slip screen to him or work with Stewart.
I don't have a lot to report on the defense as they were on the opposite side of the field. Marcus Burton seemed to add more weight and looks destined for a defensive line spot. Sipili looked a little thiner. Shaun Mohler was all over the field making plays along with Beatty. Doug Rippy passed the eye test. I couldn't spot Major but linebacker is not a worry for me at all. CB Jimmy Smith made a nice interception at the end of practice to make the offense run. That was probably the play of the day.

More to come tomorrow

(photo from Marty Caivano)

Who is Denver Johnson? Supposedly The New Buffs Offensive Line Coach, That's Who

irish1611 — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 18:02:32 -0000

All signs point to former Illinois State head coach, Denver Johnson, being named the new offensive line coach according to Bloomington Pantagraph.com. Well, I have to say that this looks like a pretty decent move for the Colorado Buffaloes. No, Denver Johnson is not the founder of the Mile High Club. Johnson has been a head coach at two schools and has had assistant coaching jobs at Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Mississippi State. Johnson, a former offensive lineman who played at Tulsa and had a brief stint in the NFL with Tampa Bay in 1981 - 1983, recently resigned from the head coaching position at Illinois State after nine years in the position. More on his coaching resume below.

According to mvc-sports.com, Johnson resigned from the Illinois State job after a season ending loss that ended the "2008 season with a 3-8 record overall, after finishing 4-7 in 2007. It was ISU’s first back-to-back losing seasons in over a decade."

"During his nine-year run at Illinois State, Johnson posted a 48-54 record with the Redbirds, highlighted by the 2006 NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision Playoff run and a season-ending No. 8 national ranking. Johnson’s teams produced some of the most prolific offensive campaigns in the program's history by establishing 28 offensive school records, including the most points and the most rushing, passing and total yards in a season."

He also seems to be a good recruiter:

As a result, the Redbirds landed three, three-star recruits, as rated by national recruiting services, and the class as a whole ranked No. 2 nationally among all NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) programs.

TRR's take: So it looks like he has a good track record for strong offensive production. Johnson will inherit one of the more promising units at Colorado in a long time in the offensive line. Still, Denver Johnson will have plenty of opportunity to put his stamp on this group as the pieces still need to be molded and grown. Johnson will first have to keep the growth and development of a promising line going in the right direction. Next, their are plenty of battles and questions that still need to be answered even with all the potential. First, who will take over duties as the rock of the offensive line in center. The good thing for Johnson is that he has a ton of talent to choose from. The bad thing is Johnson will have to find a guy with hardly any experience to play the position. At the other positions, he will have to hope OT Ryan Miller and OG Max Tuioti-Mariner heal and continue to develop. Miller and MTM have the ability to be All Big 12 players for the rest of their careers but both are still young. He will also have to be instrumental in continuing to develop a still very raw OT Nate Solder at tackle who still should be considered a project in one of the most important positions on the football field. The final task will be to get Bryce Givens ready to go and correctly shuffle through the log jam at the guard/tackle spots that consists of guys like Mike Iltis, Blake Behrens, Devin Head, Matt Bahr and Sione Tau among others, to put the best players out on the field. Johnson may have acquired one of the more promising unites on the team but there is still plenty of work to be done. The assistance of offensive technician Brad Bedell would be very helpful to keep continuity, something that is very important at the offensive line position with play calls, etc.

More on Denver Johnson from Illinois State's athletic site:

Johnson's players have gone on to receive 34 All-America honors in his tenure at Illinois State.

Following a disappointing 4-7 campaign in 2007, Johnson and his staff hit the recruiting trail with determination. As a result, the Redbirds landed three, three-star recruits, as rated by national recruiting services, and the class as a whole ranked No. 2 nationally among all NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) programs.

In 2006, the Redbirds posted the second-highest win total in school history with nine victories, finished the season ranked No. 8 in the final polls and advanced to the quarterfinals of the NCAA FCS Playoffs.

From 2007 - 2005, the Redbird passing offense was the best in the Missouri Valley Football Conference. Throughout his entire career, the offense at Illinois State was a leader in the MVC.

Illinois State originally plucked Johnson from Murray State after the 1999 season, where he was 7-4 in each of his three campaigns as the Racers' head coach. After four years playing professional football, Johnson began his coaching career in 1985 as a graduate assistant at Oklahoma State and was with the Cowboys for the 1985 Gator Bowl.

His first full-time coaching job came at Tennessee-Martin, where he was assistant head coach and coached the offensive line from 1986-89. In 1988, UT-Martin, with an explosive offense, fashioned a record of 11-2 with a quarterfinal appearance in the NCAA Division II playoffs.

Johnson coached the offensive line at Oklahoma State from 1989-93 before embarking on a three-year stint as an assistant coach at Mississippi State. The 1993 Bulldogs earned a spot in the Peach Bowl, and in 1995, Johnson was recognized as one of the top assistant coaches in the Southeastern Conference.

Johnson was on the Oklahoma staff for the 1996 season before taking over the Murray State program prior to the 1997 campaign.

A late hiring process and the loss of several key players from the previous year's team appeared to have Johnson poised for a slow start at Murray State, but that was not the case. The Racers responded with a 7-4 mark.

Johnson graduated from Tulsa in 1981. He helped TU to the 1976 Independence Bowl as a player and was a two-time All-Missouri Valley Conference offensive lineman under former Ohio State and Arizona State head coach John Cooper. He was also an academic all-conference pick.

Following his college playing career at Tulsa, Johnson moved to the professional ranks. He was with the National Football League's Tampa Bay Buccaneers from April 1981 to February 1983.

He then joined the Los Angeles Express of the now-defunct United States Football League from February 1983 through August 1984. Johnson then wrapped up his playing career with the USFL's Houston Gamblers from February 1984 through August 1985. His USFL playing days included playing stints with quarterbacks Jim Kelly and Steve Young, both of whom went on to stardom in the National Football League.

Known for his homespun humor and southern drawl, Johnson is a public speaker in high demand. His interesting delivery style, combined with a keen mind, plays well in the corporate setting, at fund-raisers, in a recruit's home and in the Redbird locker room.

Year-By-Year Head Coaching Results

2007 - Illinois State	4-7/2-4
2006 - Illinois State	9-4/5-2
2005 - Illinois State	7-4/4-3
2004 - Illinois State	4-7/2-5
2003 - Illinois State	6-6/3-4
2002 - Illinois State	6-5/4-3
2001 - Illinois State	2-9/2-5
2000 - Illinois State	7-4/4-2
ILLINOIS STATE TOTAL	45-46/26-28
1999 - Murray State	7-4/5-2
1998 - Murray State	7-4/5-2
1997 - Murray State	7-4/5-2
MURRAY STATE TOTAL	21-12/15-6
CAREER TOTAL (11 YEARS)	66-58/41-34

Coaching Ledger

2000-	Illinois State, Head Coach
1997-99	Murray State, Head Coach
1996	Oklahoma, Assistant Coach
1993-95	Mississippi State, Assistant Coach
1989-93	Oklahoma State, Assistant Coach
1986-89	Tennessee-Martin, Assistant Head Coach
1985-86	Oklahoma State, Graduate Assistant

Illinois State University Football

Poll

How do you feel about Dan Hawkins hiring Denver Johnson to be the next offensive line coach for the Buffs?

Looks like a good hire on paper and seems to have plenty of qualifications (former offensive lineman, two time head coach, impressive who's who in assistant jobs, etc.) to be satisfied with the choice

182 votes

I would have had preferred that they got someone who had more ties to CU like Stan Brock.

44 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed

Put Your Keys Up: Colorado Buffaloes vs. Texas Longhorns Keys to the Game & Prediction

irish1611 — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 17:00:04 -0000

VS.

It has been a busy week on The Ralphie Report so far...Woodrow and I have put up a lot of information from recruiting to round tables to an exciting podcast that we did with Burnt Orange Nation. But now it is time to get down to business. All the work has been put in during the week. The film has been studied, the game plans set, the schemes understood. Most people aren't giving the Buffs a chance and the popular opinion among Texas blogs is that this Colorado team is a joke, a mediocre team who will be lucky to go to a bowl game this year. Personally, I like the Buffs position right now. Its like Coach Hawkins said yesterday "So if you want to spend time handing out game balls 'cause you beat West Virginia or having a funeral 'cause you lost to Florida State, that's wrong. You just keep re-pooling, re-tooling, working it out." One bad game against FSU doesn't make a season and I fully expect this Buffs' team to respond against Texas in a strong manner. In either a win or loss result, I believe this team will take a step forward. One thing is for sure, Hawkins has a way to get his team motivated and ready for these types of games (look at Georgia & Texas Tech in his first year and Texas Tech & Oklahoma in his second). Now the keys to the game and The Ralphie Report's prediction! I think the keys of the game sections is the best of the year so far!

CU's Defensive Keys to the Game:

1) Texas has scored 73 of their 198 points (37%) in the second quarter this year compared to only giving up 20. On the flip side, Colorado has allowed more points in the second quarter (40 of the 94 or 43%) than any other quarter this year. What does this mean...the Buffs need to do a better job with the in game adjustments. Watch for the second quarter points. Last week against FSU, the Buffs gave up 12 points while not putting any on the board. The Buffs were down 12 at half time and never could recover. We talk about half time adjustments being important but this week it is about making the correct in game adjustments once Texas understands the schemes CU's defense is throwing at them.

2) Texas has had 31, count'em 31 plays over 20 yards this year. The Buffs must limit the big play. Texas has good wide receivers on the outside with Shipley and Cosby. Colt McCoy is also a threat to break a big run as he has 5 for over 20 yards. Momentum is going to be a big intangible in this game and nothing quiets a crowd or deflates a team early than a big special teams, defense or offensive play.

3) Without a doubt Colt McCoy has had a great start to this season. He, without question, has rebounded from what was a sophomore slump and has made hay against the four teams Texas has played thus far. McCoy has had a hand in 67% of the total offensive yards this year and is the leading rusher for the Texas Longhorns. How do you stop Colt McCoy's productive onslaught? Hit him hard every time he has the ball. If there is still animosity about the 70 - 3 loss in 2005, use it on McCoy. He needs to think twice about wanting to be Texas' leading rusher and Mack Brown needs to understand that putting your quarterback at risk for John Chiles is not a good option. We know McCoy is tough and is a competitor but to have him running wild like Texas has him doing with a history of getting dinged up from time to time is a little crazy in my mind. The Buffs need to make Brown and the Longhorns pay for not having a running game.

4) Great segue from the last key point is the fact that Texas doesn't have a running game without Colt McCoy. The Buffs can't do what they did last week: let an inexperienced offensive line and poor performing running game go for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns. That cannot happen this week. If there is a weakness to this Texas unit it is their lack of running game from the running back position and this week the Buffs cannot be the team that Texas turns it into a strength against.

5) CU's defense needs to be aggressive. Enough with only rushing four. Enough with counting on the defensive line to put the pressure on the quarterback. Enough with thinking that the Buffs are good enough to play straight up on defense and win these types of games. It's time that the coaching staff brings multiple looks (that does not include the 3 - 4 that we saw last week get torn up early). The Buffs need to bring people off the edge and up the middle from the linebacker position all day long. CU is going to have to get creative in trying to confuse an offense that is running on all cylinders. Sit back this week Ron Collins and Texas will torch the Buffs. Hey, blitzing might get the Buffs torched but it will give CU a much better chance at causing turnovers and sputtering the Texas offense.

CU's Offensive Keys to the Game:

1) The good thing about last week's game is that the Buffs make four plays that they are capable of, they win the game. But this game is about making plays and the Buffs, I mean Cody Hawkins, missed three that would have led to at least 14 points if not more. I would be shocked if Cody didn't come out and have his best game of the year. Finishing plays should be the goal of this offense come Saturday at 5 o'clock.

2) The Buffs have had no offensive rhythm the first four games of this year. When the Buffs scored 14 points on WVU early, they threw a bunch of quick hitting passes which never hit the ground. CU needs to play a timing offense where the ball is out of Cody's hands in under 4 seconds and into the receivers hands. Let's get the high percentage plays rolling early to give this young offensive line and Cody Hawkins some confidence.

3) Paging WR Scotty McKnight and WR Patrick Williams...time to start being contributors. McKnight really needs to get into the action early and often. He is the most reliable WR that the Buffs have and it needs to be a priority to get him in the groove early and often. The reason Scotty McKnight is so important for this offense is his ability to make plays over the middle. Right now the only threat the Buffs have is WR Josh Smith on the edges which is leaving 2/3 of the field unoccupied. We will know the game is going right if Scotty McKnight is rolling in catches over the middle.

4) There is a big statistic that looms over the head of this offense the last two years and frankly it is getting old. That stat is Cody Hawkins has throw an interception in 15 of his 17 games as a Colorado Buffalo. This year the Buffs have turned over the ball 8 times (average of 2 a game) and have an even turnover margin. That being said, Texas has only forced 6 turnovers this year but they have a +2 in turnover margin. Texas won't cause a lot of turnovers but at the same time, the Longhorns don't give the ball up on offense either. Once again, the Buffs can't make this the Longhorns coming out party for causing turnovers. It all starts with Cody getting his pre-snap reads, going through his 3 to 4 progressions and making the proper decisions. The coaching staff can help out Cody and the offensive line by calling high percentage pass plays with little risk to allow Cody to get a feel for the offense and understand the multiple sets Muschamp and the Longhorns are going to throw out their.

5) Get a lead. Like I said in the interview with Burnt Orange Nation, Texas hasn't faced any adversity this year. Getting a lead early in front of a sellout crowd at Folsom Field will put a little pressure on a Texas team that has mowed through it's competition so far. The beautiful thing about football is the fact that it is such an emotional and intangibly driven game that a team can get confidence and get hot. CU getting an early lead will do wonders for their confidence.

Players That Need to Go Big Against Texas

1) OT Matt Bahr - Surely Texas will put their big time defensive end Brian Orakpo (6 sacks) on first time starter and red shirt freshman Matt Bahr. My message to Bahr is that you know you are going to get beat but stay confident and keep attacking. Don't let Orakpo smell blood. To the coaching staff...let's make sure we get Bahr some help with TE Riar Geer chipping down or a back patrolling the area.

2) QB Cody Hawkins - the game rests on his shoulders. That's the good and bad about being a quarterback, especially on a young team. Cody realizes that and I think he believes this is a great opportunity. Good quarterbacks shine in tough spots. No fumbles, no bad sacks and no interceptions. Win this game and everyone forgets about last week.

3) LB Brad Jones - Mr Jones, you have been deemed my "Hit Colt McCoy in the Chops Guy." Nothing illegal Texas fans but Jones is in charge of making McCoy regret ever crossing that line of scrimmage. Jones has to be an animal this game. I look for LB Shaun Mohler to do some of the same patrol work as well.

4) DT Brandon Nicolas - time to step up. Nicolas and George Hypolite have been solid but not game changing like they were billed to be before the season started. If there is ever a time for a coming out party, this would be the week to do it. Texas will try to take these guys out of the game by running the shotgun spread offense similar to CU but eliminating the dive will help the linebackers focus on McCoy.

5) WR Scotty McKnight - I really like this kid but he has disappeared the last two games with only 5 catches for 21 yards. Last year he was Cody's favorite target and the Buffs most reliable WR as a freshman. He is a crucial part of the Buffs timing in the passing game. He will have to be Mr. Reliable this game for the Buffs to be efficient on offense.

Prediction Time!

So I am on record of saying Texas 31 - 23 and I will stick to that based on my concern for CU's on offense line agains the Texas defense and Brian Orakpo. I am also worred about whether the defense can fully contain the Longhorns but I will say this...don't sleep on the Buffs Longhorns. This isn't the pushover that you all think it will be. Buffs should at the least cover the 13.5 points.