SB Nation - Devin Head

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:00:13 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's Colorado Week! Time to check in on a team with more "ifs" on offense than anybody else on the league, but key recruiting success (a.k.a. Darrell Scott and a couple of linemen) and a decent enough back seven on defense that people can't help but pick them as a sleeper for the fourth straight year.

I'm not going to lie. There are two teams in the Big 12 whose continuously-predicted success has baffled me enough over the years that I can't help but be more of a naysayer than I like to be: Nebraska and Colorado. The insecure Mizzou fan in me says that if Mizzou had either Colorado's or Nebraska's roster, they'd be ranked fourth or fifth in the North, but since it's Nebraska and Colorado, they're given the benefit of the doubt. How true is this? Am I being overly unfair? Am I being extremely fair?

So I can get myself off the hook and leave my own biases at the door, let's take a look at what the BTBS numbers have to say about CU in 2009 to see if I'm right on, or if I'm being unfair and insecure. Or both.

2008

Record: 5-7 (2-6)
S&P+: 192.0 (82nd in the country, 10th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 242-351 (-109)
Conference Scoring Margin: 135-257 (-122)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #70 Colorado State, #75 West Virginia, #79 Kansas State, #104 Iowa State, 1-AA Eastern Washington
Losses: #5 Texas, #10 Missouri, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #21 Nebraska, #37 Florida State, #98 Texas A&M

It was an injury-prone, youth-to-the-extreme season for Colorado in 2008, particularly on offense. A 3-0 start was highlighted by a nice win over West Virginia, but the Buffs finished the season losing seven of nine games, scoring over 20 points just twice in Big 12 play and over 35 just once all season. A decent defense was overshadowed by a putrid offense, the worst in the Big 12 by far.

In the end, CU was 0-6 versus teams ranked above 70th in the S&P+ rankings (though West Virginia was by far the biggest outlier in the rankings--they weren't great, but 75th is shockingly low...the S&P+ rankings really didn't like their defense) and 4-1 versus those ranked below.

In 2007, a shocking win over Oklahoma overshadowed an average season that saw them finish with a #78 ranking and 6-7 record. So while they didn't regress much overall in 2008, they certainly didn't improve. And here's the scary part: Colorado went 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year. In other words, they were very lucky to finish 5-7. A closer-to-.500 record in those games would have led to a 3-9 or 4-8 record overall. As Phil Steele would mention, a +3 net win total in close games is usually a sign that a fall is coming the next year (and yet he picked Colorado above KU and MU anyway...strange).

But even with a little too much success in close games, Colorado was still unlucky when it came to injuries, and they still were playing a ton of young players. So surely they will improve in 2009, right? Right? And if so, how much?

Should this man be smiling?

Coaching

Head Coach: ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins
Record at Colorado: 13-24 (conference: 8-16)
Pythagorean Record: 14.47 wins (-0.5/year)

Who knew that when Dan Hawkins was racking up a 53-11 record in five seasons at Boise State, he was actually holding Boise back (BSU's improved to 35-4 in the last three seasons)? Kidding. Hawkins brought to Boulder an outstanding track record, and while things haven't worked out for him so far--three straight losing seasons for CU for the first time since 1982-84--with the amount of youth on this team, he's still got quite a few people in his corner. And he's insisting on accountability and taking responsibility for CU's struggles, which is refreshing.

It really has been pretty bad in Boulder, though. Not only has CU gone only 13-24 in The Hawk's time in Boulder (11-14 if you're giving him a free pass on his 2006 debut), but they've actually underachieved a bit in terms of Pythagorean projections. And that's not even half the story. As we've learned by now, blowouts skew the projections, and, well, Mizzou has outscored the Buffs by a cool 141-23 in the last three years. So you would think that the Missouri results alone would give them a low Pythagorean projection, causing them to overachieve in overall wins, right? Wrong--despite the Mizzou skew, Colorado has still managed to underachieve.

I can't tell you what kind of hot seat awaits Hawkins if he doesn't at least get back to a bowl this year--I think the 2007 win over OU bought him some extra goodwill that he hasn't quite used up yet--but I can tell you that I have been completely unimpressed. We're not talking about a "The Beef / Ron Prince" level of unimpressed, but CU has not shown any modicum of improvement in three years, and while I'm willing to give him this fourth season to see if Year #3 really was shot down by injuries, I just don't have a lot of confidence in the CU program while Hawkins is at the helm. If I'm being unfair, CU will probably show it this year.

Alright...to the rankings!

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 82.0 (#114)
Success Rate+: 85.0 (#115)
PPP+: 78.9 (#112)

Standard Downs S&P+: 84.0 (#110)
Passing Downs S&P+: 79.9 (#114)

Red Zone S&P+: 97.9 (#71)

Q1 S&P+: 85.0 (#98)
Q2 S&P+: 75.2 (#118)
Q3 S&P+: 77.0 (#117)
Q4 S&P+: 92.9 (#89)

1st Down S&P+: 81.1 (#113)
2nd Down S&P+: 80.5 (#116)
3rd Down S&P+: 76.3 (#116)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 85.9 (#102)
Rushing SR+: 91.7 (#97)
Rushing PPP+: 78.9 (#105)

Standard Downs: 84.2 (#108)
Passing Downs: 94.0 (#83)

Red Zone: 99.7 (#74)

Line Yards+: 91.4 (#97)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 78.9 (#111)
Passing SR+: 78.8 (#117)
Passing PPP+: 79.6 (#106)

Standard Downs: 84.3 (#104)
Passing Downs: 76.8 (#112)

Red Zone: 102.6 (#59)

Adj. Sack Rate: 6.8% (#82)

Here's the question that lingers over all of these numbers: how much can a team improve in one offseason? Because while the odds are decent that CU's offense will indeed improve this year, to say they have a long way to go is an insult to long distances. They were sooooo bad last year. My god. Terrible rushing, terrible passing. Terrible on Standard Downs, terrible on Passing Downs. Terrible in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4. Terrible on 1st downs, 2nd downs, and 3rd downs. The bright side: they were only below-average in the red zone! Seriously, when your best ranking in the above table is 59th (Red Zone Passing), you know things didn't go how you hoped.

With more experience at RB and OL, hopefully better QB play, and fewer overall injuries, Colorado should improve in 2009. How much?

Two ways to look at that: first, if they were to improve back to 2007 levels, that would only get them to 73rd in S&P+. But what if they improve a lot?

Here are the top five most improved offenses from 2007 to 2008 and how much they improved their Close-Game S&P+:

Iowa (+34.0%)
Notre Dame (+30.7%)
Rice (+29.8%)
UAB (+26.8%)
Pittsburgh (+26.6%)

If Colorado were to improve by 34% in 2009, that would give them an S&P+ of 109.9, which would have garnered a ranking of 40th in 2008 and 38th in 2007. So if they improve as much as any offense in the country--really, the best-case scenario--that might be enough to get them into the Top 40 offensively. It's within the realm of possibility, but one does not find a lot of success in life betting on the best-case scenario. Trust me, I've tried.

Quarterback

Ahh, Cody Hawkins. Not sure there has been a more maligned multi-year starter in the country since Reggie Ball was taking snaps for Georgia Tech.

2008 Unit Ranking: #113 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Cody ~~Nolte~~ Hawkins (5'11, 190, Jr.)
~~Taylor~~ Tyler Hansen (6'1, 200, So.)
Clark Evans? (6'5, 230, Fr.)

Here's your chicken v. egg debate. Colorado's QBs were just about the worst among all BCS conference teams (Washington State's QB unit was 118th)--was that because they really were bad, or because everybody around them was either a) injured, b) a freshman, and/or c) not very good? If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Running Backs

Time to prove why you were a five-star recruit, Darrell.

2008 Unit Ranking: #107 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected TB Depth Chart
Darrell Scott (6'1, 200, So.)
Rodney Stewart (5'7, 170, So.)
Brian Lockridge (5'7, 175, So.)
Demetrius Sumler (5'10, 215, Jr.)

Projected FB Depth Chart
Jake Behrens (6'0, 240, Sr.)
Trace Adams (6'0, 210, Sr.)

Both at RMN and Football Outsiders, I've introduced a new measure for evaluating running backs: POE (Points Over Expected). It is exactly what it suggests--a look at a running back's output compared to what would be expected versus the defenses he faced. A positive POE means he produced more than the average running back would have produced. Negative = less than average.

Here are the POE ratings for the three CU running backs who got more than 50 carries in 2008:

Demetrius Sumler (-0.5 POE, 97.8 PPP+, #138 of 269 eligible RBs)
Darrell Scott (-8.1 POE, 73.3 PPP+, #221)
Rodney Stewart (-13.6 POE, 68.1 PPP+, #256)

Ouch.

We all know about Darrell Scott's recruiting profile--he was Rivals.com's #1 running back recruit in the country in 2008--but after Scott's first year in Boulder, we have absolutely no idea what he's capable of. During an injury-prone freshman season, he showed none of the explosiveness or elusiveness that we would expect out of a national Top 10 recruit, but clearly it's not too late. As a whole, you'd like your running back built more like Derrick Washington than Jeremy Maclin, but if Scott can stay healthy, he may (may) be able to live up to the hype. He had 154 yards on 34 carries (4.5 per carry) in spring scrimmages, which is far from amazing, but he's clearly still young.

Beyond Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Meanwhile, since Demetrius Sumler is behind both Scott and Stewart on the depth chart, it appears that he's less productive than both. Wrong. Sumler was deceptively successful in 2008 (well, more successful than Scott/Stewart--overall he was extremely average). He looked very good in the spring, but he appears to be buried on the depth chart behind three sophomores (Scott, Stewart, Brian Lockridge).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Simas is expected to produce immediately. If he doesn't, who will?

2008 Unit Ranking: #110 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Markques Simas (6'2, 200, So.)
Scotty McKnight (5'11, 185, Jr.)
Dustin Ebner (6'1, 175, RSFr.)
Jason Espinoza (5'8, 175, So.)
Andre Simmons (6'3, 210, Jr.)
Cameron Ham (6'1, 200, Jr.)
Ryan Maxwell (5'9, 180, So.)
Kevin Moyd (5'7, 200, Sr.)
Kyle Cefalo (5'10, 165, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Riar Geer (6'4, 250, Sr.)
Ryan Deehan (6'5, 240, So.)
Patrick Devenny (6'3, 240, Sr.)

So Colorado had the 11th worst receiving corps in the nation in 2009, 3rd worst among BCS conference teams (Michigan was 112th, Washington State 118th). Then, after spring ball, they unexpectedly lost their only proven explosive threat*, Josh Smith, to transfer. Well, they might have lost him to transfer--they're allowing him to only accept a scholarship to USC or UCLA, which is just petty, but if neither of those schools offer him a scholarship (sounds like UCLA is looking like a pretty viable option), then I don't know what happens. Does he stay? If he stays, does he play?

* He was far from amazing, but he was Colorado's Jeremy Maclin.

Regardless, a bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.

Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

On the bright side, Colorado does have some decent experience at tight end. Riar Geer (61 career catches, 7 TDs), Patrick Devenny (15 career catches, 3 TDs), and Ryan Deehan (5 catches, 1 TD) have proven to be decent red zone receivers, but none are dangerous enough to garner special attention from a defense. Leave them open, and they'll catch some passes, but they're not going to kill you. Still, though, it's nice having experience at tight end, if for no other reason than you have some help on third downs and in the red zone.

And somehow Kyle Cefalo is of no relation to Jimmy Cefalo. What a disappointment that is.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #102 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Ryan Miller (6'8, 310, So.)
G Blake Behrens (6'3, 290, So.)
T Nate Solder (6'9, 300, Jr.)
T Bryce Givens (6'6, 275, RSFr.)
C Mike Iltis (6'3, 275, So.)
T Matthew Bahr (6'4, 285, So.)
G Devin Head (6'4, 290, Sr.)
C Keenan Stevens (6'2, 285, Jr.)
T Ryan Dannewitz (6'6, 290, RSFr.)
G Shawn Daniels (6'3, 280, So.)

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Summary

A five-star starter at RB, a four-star starter at WR, and a five-star (with at least one four-star) on the offensive line. From a recruiting perspective, there's some top-end talent here. But almost none of the top-end players have proven themselves yet, and until they do, we don't know that they will, right? My best guess for the Colorado offense in 2009 is that it will rebound to around the rankings it found in 2007...sort of. In 2007, they were 95th rushing and 43rd passing--I can see the opposite happening this year, where Colorado does begin to establish a relatively solid running game, but the passing game still holds them back considerably. Seriously, beyond McKnight, the entire WR unit has one career catch. It's hard to ignore that and just assume that things will click there, even with a decent running game.

Whatever Colorado manages to do in 2009, it will likely be because of their linebackers and secondary, and maybe their running game. There are still far too many question marks on the offense to expect much, but if they can stay healthy and rack up the experience, then they might be in pretty decent shape for 2010.

Why They Will Win the Big 12 North - A Focus On Strengths

Jon Johnston — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:00:17 -0000

Last week I looked at the weaknesses of Big 12 North teams. I also stated that the Big 12 North will come down to a finish between three teams - Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado. This article focuses on the strengths of the Big 12 North teams. I did not pick the strengths nor weaknesses based solely on units (offensive line, linebacker, etc) nor on great players, but on what I felt were the most positive characteristics that would help each team to win games, and therefore win the conference division.

The teams are in no particular order of predicted finish - that will come later this summer.

Nebraska

Primary Strength - The Lines

It might have been easy to rank the primary strength as the defensive line with secondary strength as offensive, but it would be both lazy and a little hopeful with regards to the offensive line. While the Husker offensive linemen showed signs they were bringing back memories of "The Pipeline" days of the ‘90s, the fact is they still have a ways to go. It was relatively easy to develop a strong running game when they had a ball control-based passing game last season. This year their will be much more pressure on the offensive line to perform - if they can develop into a strong unit, Nebraska should win the North.

The defensive line is in exellent shape, with potential All-American Ndamukong Suh up front and defensive ends Barry Turner and Pierre Allen bringing pressure from the outside. Sophomore Jared Crick must play well to keep the double teams from Suh. Two highly ranked redshirt freshman, Baker Steinkuhler and Cameron Meredith will add to the rotation.

Secondary Strength - Turnover Margin

It might be an odd pick for a strength, but turnover ration might be the biggest key to a successful Nebraska season. Bo Pelini’s defenses are known for generating turnovers - in his three years at LSU, his defense went from 105th to 58th to 2nd nationally, improving from -9 to even to +20. In his first season at Nebraska, the Huskers finished -11 and dead last in the Big 12. Despite the low finish, Nebraska finished tied for first in the Big 12 North. What happens with improvement can’t be anything bad.

Kansas

Primary Strength - Offensive Production

Quarterback Todd Reesing, wide receivers Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier and running back Jake Sharp make up the most productive offensive set in school history. Coming into his final season, Reesing already owns over 30 school records, while Briscoe set a school record for single-season receiving yardage with 1,407. As much as Briscoe provides flash, Meier provides clutch, setting a school record for single-season receptions with 97 and a single-game reception record with 14 against Missouri, including the last minute game winning touchdown.

If Sharp sounds anti-climactic, consider that he finished last season with the third-most carries amongst Big 12 running backs - this after Kansas used a running back by committee approach during the non-conference season.
Given this group, Kansas can’t be counted out of any game they’ll play against a Big 12 North opponent.

Secondary Strength - Defensive Secondary

On defense, the Jayhawks are replacing three linebackers that combined for 103 starts and 821 tackles. While that sounds daunting, Kansas will be switching their defensive back to the nickel package, which will somewhat alleviate the loss of experience.

Kansas returns a secondary that remains intact from the last half of 2008. They’re lead by First-Team All-Big 12 safety Darrell Stuckey, who finished second in tackles and with five interceptions. The unit should be better, after finishing third in conference pass efficiency defense despite shuffling starters the first half of the year.

Colorado

Primary Strength - The Running game

Colorado suffered so many injuries last season, it’s difficult to base any prediction on who started how many times or in what position. However, it isn’t difficult to see that the injuries may be of benefit to this season because of the number of young players getting experience when otherwise they would have been watching.

Another not-so-difficult observation was the talent borne by the pair of young running backs Rodney Stewart and Darrell Scott. Neither have been around long enough to gain much attention - on top of that, both were injured during the season with Scott never being fully healthy and Stewart suffering a broken leg against Texas A&M. Demetrius Sumler got a fair amount of work as a third back, so the depth is there.

Injuries didn’t just kill the running backs last season, but took quite a tool on the offensive line. Looking at averages or rankings doesn’t tell that tale. Despite the loss of Devin Head, the only senior of the bunch, to academics this is the best line unit the Buffs have had in years. Add to that a deep tight end unit and the running game will be fine.

Secondary Strength - Defensive Back Seven

Colorado finished first in conference pass defense last season. While that may drop due to having to retool the defensive line, the linebacking unit is one of the better in the Big 12. Top returning tacklers are linebackers Jeff Smart and Shaun Mohler, and while the Buffs lose three starters in the secondary, the return five players with starting experience. Cha’pelle Brown will get a lot of attention, but it’s Jimmy Smith fans will need to watch. Husker fans will remember him as the player who returned a botched fake field goal for a touchdown last season. Benjamin Burney adds experience after missing lsat season due to injury.

Kansas State

Primary Strength - Schedule

Bill Snyder might not have much of an overall team to work with in 2009, but he does have scheduling on his side. The non-conference cupcakes will give him a chance to find out who his players are before moving into Big 12 play. The Wildcats have only three conference road games (not counting the neutral site game in Kansas City against Iowa State), and although they’re against Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Nebraska, they get the rest of their Big 12 North counterparts at home.

If Snyder can find his players, the Wildcats might shock some people.

Secondary Strength - Pass Defense

The Wildcats have a rising star in sophomore defensive end Brandon Herald, who finished as the top freshman in tackles for loss last season. He’ll provide the pressure while the back seven provides the experience. Of the back seven, four projected starters are seniors. Sophomore free safety Tysyn Hartman will gain some notoriety this season.

Missouri

Primary Strength - The Running Game

Missouri’s offense last season was pass-happy and prolific, but the majority of those players have moved on. The good news for Tigers fans is they have one of the best offensive line units in the conference with three starters returning and a fourth who received plenty of playing time last year. That fourth player in Dan Hoch, who originally committed to Nebraska, but went to Missouri after Bill Callahan’s firing at the end of 2007.

Running back Derrick Washington gained over 1,000 yards last year despite being slowed by injuries late in the season. Washington is a strong runner who’ll be backed up by speed burner De’Vion Moore.

Secondary Strength - Linebacker

It can border on silliness to base a strength on a single player, but Sean Weatherspoon might be that good. He returns as the top tackler in the Big 12 with 155, nearly more than all Husker linebackers had combined. While the unit loses the second leading tackler Christopher Brock (who finished with 105 tackles), the drop off won’t be bad.

Iowa State

Primary Strength - Overall Athleticism

You wouldn’t know it from their 0-8 Big 12 finish, but the 2008 version of the Cyclones was an improved team relative to their recent predecessors. Between quarterback Austen Arnaud and cornerback/kick returner Leonard Johnson, the team’s overall athleticism was much better than the previous season.

Secondary Strength - Coaching Staff

Gene Chizik’s bolting for Auburn after two lousy seasons might be the best thing that’s happened to Iowa State in a while. Chizik left with a 5-19 record, but replacement Paul Rhoads was just what the Cyclones are looking for - a coach that wants to be in Ames. Rhoads hired offensive coordinator Tom Herman from Rice, and defensive coordinator Wally Burnham from South Florida, both excellent hires in their own regard. Herman’s spread is prolific, while Burnham’s defense will attack. The aggressiveness of both coaches should find Iowa State improved over the past couple of years.

The new coaches come into a good situation. After ten straight losses and a 17-game road losing streak, Cyclone fans will be happy with anything that looks like improvement.

2009 Big 12 Football Previews: Colorado Buffaloes

ccmachine — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:21:38 -0000

*2008 High*	*2008 Low*
17-14 OT Win Over West Virginia	58-0 Loss At Missouri

We’re going to start our conference previews by looking at the teams that are not on Oklahoma’s 2009 football schedule. These teams include Colorado, Iowa State and Missouri – all three of which I’d rather see on the schedule than Kansas, Kansas State and Nebraska.

Offense

Dreadful doesn’t quite describe Colorado’s attempt to run the no huddle offense last season. The Buffs were last in the in points scored (20.2) and yards (318.5) per game. Part of the problem for Colorado’s offensive woes could have been instability at both the quarterback and running back positions. Cody Hawkins eventually gave way to Tyler Hansen and highly touted running back Darrell Scott didn’t live up to the hype.

*Offense*	*Per Game*	Rank
Scoring	20.2	100
Rushing	124.5 ypg	86
Passing	194 ypg	81
Total	318.5ypg	95

In `09 the Buffaloes are going to rely heavily on their stable of running backs and hope that opens up the passing game. A pleasant surprise last season was the emergence of running back Rodney Stewart who led the team in rushing. The duo of Stewart/Scott could turnout to be on of the better running back duos in the North. Markques Simas in now eligible to play and will be relied upon to take some attention away from Scotty McKnight. However, depth behind those guys is questionable at best.

The key to Colorado’s offense is going to be the same as just about every other offense in the country, offensive line play and the triggerman. The Buffaloes offensive line is very young. Junior left tackle Nate Solder is the oldest starter penciled in on the line and because sophomore guard Ethan Adkins is edging out senior Devin Head it looks like Solder could be joined by three sophomores and a freshman on the line. Cody Hawkins threw 17 touchdowns to 10 interceptions last season and will need to step up a notch in `09 as a junior. He’s not real fleet of foot which is a big problem when there are leaks in the offensive line. More than anything else his decision making abilities will need to improve in order to lead the Buffs to success.

Defense

*Defense*	*Per Game*	*Rank*
Scoring	29.3	86
Rushing	166.3	86
Passing	215.3	72
Total	381.6	78

The strength of Colorado’s defense last season was the line but with three starters gone due to graduation they are now turning to their linebackers. Switching to a 3-4 scheme the Buffaloes are going to depend on a fast and rugged group of linebackers to anchor the defense. Jeff Smart and Shaun Mohler led the team in tackles last season and will provide senior leadership along with Marcus Burton. B.J. Beatty may be one of the best pass rushing linebackers in the conference.

On the corners the Buffaloes are strong. Jimmy Smith is their best corner and is a legitimate shutdown guy. Opposite of him Ben Burney is pushing his way back into a starting spot after missing last season due to injury. Strong safety Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins were thrust into starting positions last season due to injuries and more than held their own. As sophomores they’ll be seasoned starters in 2009 rounding out a solid defensive secondary.

*RETURNING*	LEADERS
Passing	Cody Hawkins, 183/320-1,892-10, 17 TDs
Rushing	Rodney Stewart, 132/622, 2 TDs
Receiving	Scotty McKnight 46/519, 5 TDs
Tackles	Jeff Smart, 118
Sacks	Marquez Herrod, 4

Mizzou Links, 6-3-09

Bill C. — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 10:36:56 -0000

We start with NCAA baseball today...if you want to discuss what I briefly touched upon yesterday, go over to Big 12 Hardball and check out the "Was the Big 12 overrated" post. Then when you're done, head on over to SimmonsField.com to check out Mizzou recruits' final stats for the season and get excited for the future. Yes, all D1 recruits have great stats...but still...

To softball, where the future for Mizzou is super-duper bright...

To football recruiting, where a couple more outlets (The Trib, Post-Dispatch) take on Sheldon Richardson's JUCO future

To Mizzou Football, where yesterday was Mizzou Football's Kansas City camp, and there was some series talent on display. From PowerMizzou's Pete Scantlebury:

Obviously, the story of the day was Lucas and McCay in attendance. Both players were excited to be there, and for the last hour and a half of the camp, they never left each other's side. They're good friends, and it would be a major haul if a team could haul in both receivers.

To Big 12 Football, where Colorado has gotten smacked hard by defection in the last week. Part-time starting OG Devin Head is now gone, following up last week's departure of star WR Josh Smith. Hard for the offense to get better if they keep losing key components...

And to National Football, where SI's Andy Staples checks out a few different scenarios for how conference expansion could go down. Who knows how realistic any of this is, but it's fun to imagine...especially when some scenarios involve Mizzou...

Finally...this guy's a freaking champ...

Wet KOMU 8 Live Shot from KOMU News on Vimeo.

Offensive Guard, Devin Head, the Latest Player Off the Team

irish1611 — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 04:07:31 -0000

OG Devin Head will not be on the team in 2009.

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The University of Colorado today announced scheduling news, coaching changes and personnel moves that cleared many rumors and discussions up; sort of. The main news centered around the three scholarship players leaving the program in Sr. G Devin Head, Jr. WR Josh Smith and RFr TE Ryan Wallace. The departure of Josh Smith and Ryan Wallace was confirmed, two days after the Saturday night release that caused a shock through the Buff faithful. Supposedly Smith is only leaving to pursue his music interests and Ryan Wallace is leaving to be closer to home in Kentucky. Read Saturday's post for thoughts on all of this.

The new player departing the team is senior guard Devin Head due to being academically ineligible. Head participated in 663 plays in 11 total games last season and started 17 games over his career. Head was suspended for the Eastern Washington game in '08 for an off the field incident. He would have been in a battle with at least five players for the remaining left guard spot in 2009 judging by the results of spring ball. Head was the only returning senior on the offensive line and was one of the few remaining Gary Barnett recruits from 2005.

Devin Head and Josh Smith are both good players, both had starting roles on this team but in regards to Head, he is part of an offensive line unit that is deep. What hurts most about Head is he was a senior, had experience and may have been a solidifying guy in the locker room. With the departure of Head, their are now only three seniors who will probably play significant roles in the 2009 offense: TE Patrick DeVenny, TE Riar Geer and FB Jake Behrens.

As for Smith, different story. He is a playmaker and is part of a unit that is thin. Regardless of his wide receiver production in years past, he was one of the strongest playmakers on the team and figured to play a key role if the Buffs were going to make the jump in 2009. Not saying the Buffs won’t win without Smith but his maturation and growth would have helped immensely this upcoming year all things considered.

One thing that should not be forgotten is how Head's departure will affect the Buffs APR academic progress. Since he left ineligible, that will have a negative impact on the NCAA sanctioned score. Coupled with the release of LB Lynn Katoa (also leaving ineligible), it seems the Buffs will lose some scholarships next year. We have talked about this a lot on this site but if this is the case and sanctions are on the horizon, hopefully the Buffs are proactive and self-impose penalties this year since the team is 7 scholarship players short of 85 by my count. I count 36 scholarship players on offense, 37 on defense including incoming freshmen and 5 special teamers. I will publish my list tomorrow.

The departure of FB Matt Burgner (walkon) also means the Buffs will have not have a fullback on the roster in 2010, causing concern if the Buffs use a two back set for the foreseeable future. Alex Wood of Steamboat Springs, a 2009 walkon, might be a good option for this position but he is currently listed as a tight end, another position that the Buffs will be extremely thin at after the 2009 season. So. Ryan Deehan and true freshman DeVaughn Thornton will be the only two scholarship players on the roster in 2010 that are currently known about.

Hopefully this is the end of the line for personnel moves off the current roster.

Onto the coaching moves. Dan Hawkins announced he would be coaching the wide receivers, an extremely important task considering the current situation. Hawkins will be in charge of getting Andre Simmons, Terdema Ussery and Jarrod Darden, all newcomers, ready to play immediately when they first step on the Colorado campus. He will also have the task of motivating Markques Simas to be a All Big 12 player for the Buffs in 2009. He also announced that Ashley Ambrose will be taking over the wide receiver coaching responsibilities in 2010, something that was important to state for recruiting purposes. Ambrose will be learning on the job this year as he just recently joined the Colorado staff last year. Dan Hawkins also brought on his mentor, 68 year old Bob Foster, to coach the outside linebackers. Research will have to be done on Foster as I know little about him. Foster will only stay on staff for a year. It's always interesting in Buff land. Not every day do you hear the head coach will coach the wide receivers and he then hires a 68 year old mentor for one year.

As we wrote about earlier today, the first three games of the 2009 were scheduled. The Buffs will open up against Colorado State in Boulder ~~Saturday~~ Sunday, Sept 6th 5:00pm on FSN. Just five days later the Buffs will travel to Toledo, Ohio to play in a Friday night game at 7:00 pm on ESPN, leaving the Buffs very little time to recover from their first game and prepare for Toledo (and travel to Toledo, a MAC school. Bad scheduling all around here). Colorado will then host Wyoming Saturday, Sept 19 1:30 pm. It does not look to be televised.

Five Things About Five Players - Things We Hope to Learn (Part Two)

irish1611 — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 17:35:50 -0000

Part two of our "things we hope to learn" series features five players (see part one here), some not as well known as the other five we featured first but maybe just as important. It calls for people to fill voids, go beyond expectation and just flat out be prepared to compete.

Remember we are fast forwarding to April 25th, 6:00 pm. What do we hope to know about these five players at that time? Let's draw it up:

DL Conrad Obi - with Curtis Cunningham LIMITED this spring, the best chance for the Buffs to sure up the line looked to be a fall practice task. Further, many Buff fans are still holding out hope that incoming freshman Edward Nuckols and Nick Kasa may have an immediate impact but Conrad Obi has really stepped up and filled a vacant spot on the defensive line. At 6'3' 265, Obi has the ability to play both inside and outside and his motor looks have improved from his freshman year. Shields and Goree also showed well but Obi stood out the most of all defensive lineman and if the learning curve continues for young guys like Goree, Shields, Obi, Cunningham and Pericak, Colorado might not have to force incoming freshman Nick Kasa and Edward Nuckols into action, something that should be music to our ears.

WR Josh Smith - similar to the Simas situation, Buff fans were easily frustrated at Smith last year. We saw all the potential in spring and fall ball but rumors of a lack of commitment to the playbook to self prophesized comparisons to Jeremy Maclin to some head scratching decisions just kept Buff fans wondering if Smith would reach his potential and be our version of the Missouri all purpose player. Well, it looks like that frustration the players have had over the past couple of losing seasons really hit home with Smith. Coaches complimented Smith on his new dedication and like his nephew, he has assumed a vocal leadership role on this team. Finally healthy, Coach Kiesau and Helfrich have him inserted in the lineup on every play in the slot, being creative with Smith and getting the ball in his hands to make plays. When I was at practice, I didn't see one end around play called to #1, something that all Buff fans appreciated. What I did see is Simas and Smith working together to finally provide the Buffs a one-two punch in the offense-happy Big 12. Barring any injuries and the continuation of hard work from both Simas and Smith, we may be looking at a top four duo in the conference. Further, KR/PR Jason Espinoza looks to be healthy again, allowing the Buffs to monitor Smith's special teams output as to not affect his offensive production.

OL Bryce Givens - with Max Tuioti-Mariner out this spring and Devin Head & Mike Iltis LIMITED, guys not named Ryan Miller and Nate Solder have a chance to snag one of the three remaining offensive line spots come fall. No players' progress to gain weight has been followed more than Givens, a very talented redshirt freshman who's main task to go along with his athleticism was to gain weight this offseason. Givens succeeded to say the least. He added 25 pounds to get to 275 - 280 but I have heard rumors that he may be up to 290 pounds without having lost too much speed. Not only did he make it through camp without a re-occurrence of a concussion but he pretty much made it impossible for Denver Johnson not to find a place for him whether it means putting him at guard or moving Ryan Miller inside. He has the best feet of all the offensive linemen and now, can physically stand-up to the players on the other side of the ball. Givens provides another reason why Buff fans should be excited about the future of the offensive line.

TE Riar Geer - coming off a junior season where nothing seemed to go right for Geer both on and off-the-field, we saw a more effectively utilized tight end this spring. 2009 should be different for both Geer and Ryan Deehan as no position will get opened up more from what is going on around them than tight end. Injuries, the inability of the wide receivers to stretch the field, the spread offense and youthful core of players caused the tight end to be rendered useless in 2008. Last year, Geer had his least productive season as a collegiate player, only grabbing thirteen passes. With a new pro-style offense, the coaching staff made a point to bring back the tight end in both the passing game and as an effective second level blocker, something that Geer can handle well with his big frame. Other than the University of Miami, Colorado has had one of the more successful programs in turning out big time pro prospects at the tight end position. This year with a trio of impressive candidates in Geer, Deehan and Ryan Wallace, I would be shocked if we see the position go ignored again. If the Buffs are hitting the tight end like they showed in spring ball, this offense just became more dynamic.

K Aric Goodman - public enemy number one last year showed that he can respond. Goodman had a very impressive spring, gaining his confidence back with a more effective two step approach to place kicking. Although practice was not Goodman's problem in '08, he did nothing this spring that would hint to the coaches that he lost his confidence or had a hangover. Hawkins and Riddle made a point to make Goodman's life miserable with constant taunting and hints of 2008's misfortunes. Every day, the Buffs conditioning program was increased in severity based on the performance of Goodman, bringing pressure from both coach and player. Buff fans should be rooting for a turnaround from Goodman. Something tells me we don't want a freshman kicker trying to win the game at West Virginia. Goodman continued to show he had a strong leg and so far accuracy doesn't seem to be a problem.

Who is Denver Johnson? Supposedly The New Buffs Offensive Line Coach, That's Who

irish1611 — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 18:02:32 -0000

All signs point to former Illinois State head coach, Denver Johnson, being named the new offensive line coach according to Bloomington Pantagraph.com. Well, I have to say that this looks like a pretty decent move for the Colorado Buffaloes. No, Denver Johnson is not the founder of the Mile High Club. Johnson has been a head coach at two schools and has had assistant coaching jobs at Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Mississippi State. Johnson, a former offensive lineman who played at Tulsa and had a brief stint in the NFL with Tampa Bay in 1981 - 1983, recently resigned from the head coaching position at Illinois State after nine years in the position. More on his coaching resume below.

According to mvc-sports.com, Johnson resigned from the Illinois State job after a season ending loss that ended the "2008 season with a 3-8 record overall, after finishing 4-7 in 2007. It was ISU’s first back-to-back losing seasons in over a decade."

"During his nine-year run at Illinois State, Johnson posted a 48-54 record with the Redbirds, highlighted by the 2006 NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision Playoff run and a season-ending No. 8 national ranking. Johnson’s teams produced some of the most prolific offensive campaigns in the program's history by establishing 28 offensive school records, including the most points and the most rushing, passing and total yards in a season."

He also seems to be a good recruiter:

As a result, the Redbirds landed three, three-star recruits, as rated by national recruiting services, and the class as a whole ranked No. 2 nationally among all NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) programs.

TRR's take: So it looks like he has a good track record for strong offensive production. Johnson will inherit one of the more promising units at Colorado in a long time in the offensive line. Still, Denver Johnson will have plenty of opportunity to put his stamp on this group as the pieces still need to be molded and grown. Johnson will first have to keep the growth and development of a promising line going in the right direction. Next, their are plenty of battles and questions that still need to be answered even with all the potential. First, who will take over duties as the rock of the offensive line in center. The good thing for Johnson is that he has a ton of talent to choose from. The bad thing is Johnson will have to find a guy with hardly any experience to play the position. At the other positions, he will have to hope OT Ryan Miller and OG Max Tuioti-Mariner heal and continue to develop. Miller and MTM have the ability to be All Big 12 players for the rest of their careers but both are still young. He will also have to be instrumental in continuing to develop a still very raw OT Nate Solder at tackle who still should be considered a project in one of the most important positions on the football field. The final task will be to get Bryce Givens ready to go and correctly shuffle through the log jam at the guard/tackle spots that consists of guys like Mike Iltis, Blake Behrens, Devin Head, Matt Bahr and Sione Tau among others, to put the best players out on the field. Johnson may have acquired one of the more promising unites on the team but there is still plenty of work to be done. The assistance of offensive technician Brad Bedell would be very helpful to keep continuity, something that is very important at the offensive line position with play calls, etc.

More on Denver Johnson from Illinois State's athletic site:

Johnson's players have gone on to receive 34 All-America honors in his tenure at Illinois State.

Following a disappointing 4-7 campaign in 2007, Johnson and his staff hit the recruiting trail with determination. As a result, the Redbirds landed three, three-star recruits, as rated by national recruiting services, and the class as a whole ranked No. 2 nationally among all NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) programs.

In 2006, the Redbirds posted the second-highest win total in school history with nine victories, finished the season ranked No. 8 in the final polls and advanced to the quarterfinals of the NCAA FCS Playoffs.

From 2007 - 2005, the Redbird passing offense was the best in the Missouri Valley Football Conference. Throughout his entire career, the offense at Illinois State was a leader in the MVC.

Illinois State originally plucked Johnson from Murray State after the 1999 season, where he was 7-4 in each of his three campaigns as the Racers' head coach. After four years playing professional football, Johnson began his coaching career in 1985 as a graduate assistant at Oklahoma State and was with the Cowboys for the 1985 Gator Bowl.

His first full-time coaching job came at Tennessee-Martin, where he was assistant head coach and coached the offensive line from 1986-89. In 1988, UT-Martin, with an explosive offense, fashioned a record of 11-2 with a quarterfinal appearance in the NCAA Division II playoffs.

Johnson coached the offensive line at Oklahoma State from 1989-93 before embarking on a three-year stint as an assistant coach at Mississippi State. The 1993 Bulldogs earned a spot in the Peach Bowl, and in 1995, Johnson was recognized as one of the top assistant coaches in the Southeastern Conference.

Johnson was on the Oklahoma staff for the 1996 season before taking over the Murray State program prior to the 1997 campaign.

A late hiring process and the loss of several key players from the previous year's team appeared to have Johnson poised for a slow start at Murray State, but that was not the case. The Racers responded with a 7-4 mark.

Johnson graduated from Tulsa in 1981. He helped TU to the 1976 Independence Bowl as a player and was a two-time All-Missouri Valley Conference offensive lineman under former Ohio State and Arizona State head coach John Cooper. He was also an academic all-conference pick.

Following his college playing career at Tulsa, Johnson moved to the professional ranks. He was with the National Football League's Tampa Bay Buccaneers from April 1981 to February 1983.

He then joined the Los Angeles Express of the now-defunct United States Football League from February 1983 through August 1984. Johnson then wrapped up his playing career with the USFL's Houston Gamblers from February 1984 through August 1985. His USFL playing days included playing stints with quarterbacks Jim Kelly and Steve Young, both of whom went on to stardom in the National Football League.

Known for his homespun humor and southern drawl, Johnson is a public speaker in high demand. His interesting delivery style, combined with a keen mind, plays well in the corporate setting, at fund-raisers, in a recruit's home and in the Redbird locker room.

Year-By-Year Head Coaching Results

2007 - Illinois State	4-7/2-4
2006 - Illinois State	9-4/5-2
2005 - Illinois State	7-4/4-3
2004 - Illinois State	4-7/2-5
2003 - Illinois State	6-6/3-4
2002 - Illinois State	6-5/4-3
2001 - Illinois State	2-9/2-5
2000 - Illinois State	7-4/4-2
ILLINOIS STATE TOTAL	45-46/26-28
1999 - Murray State	7-4/5-2
1998 - Murray State	7-4/5-2
1997 - Murray State	7-4/5-2
MURRAY STATE TOTAL	21-12/15-6
CAREER TOTAL (11 YEARS)	66-58/41-34

Coaching Ledger

2000-	Illinois State, Head Coach
1997-99	Murray State, Head Coach
1996	Oklahoma, Assistant Coach
1993-95	Mississippi State, Assistant Coach
1989-93	Oklahoma State, Assistant Coach
1986-89	Tennessee-Martin, Assistant Head Coach
1985-86	Oklahoma State, Graduate Assistant

Illinois State University Football

Poll

How do you feel about Dan Hawkins hiring Denver Johnson to be the next offensive line coach for the Buffs?

Looks like a good hire on paper and seems to have plenty of qualifications (former offensive lineman, two time head coach, impressive who's who in assistant jobs, etc.) to be satisfied with the choice

182 votes

I would have had preferred that they got someone who had more ties to CU like Stan Brock.

44 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed

Worst of 2008 #10: Off The Field Issues

irish1611 — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 13:45:06 -0000

Just as much as injuries were against the norm this year, off the field issues were also on a surprising uptick. Every program has these problems but in 2008, it seemed to be at an all time high for Colorado and once again, another excuse for the program not being able to progress this year. The rap list is long, but here it is...remember all of this is only in the calendar year of 2008!

In January, LB Nate Vaiomounga was charged with criminal mischief under $500 for allegedly breaking a window in a residence hall. Vaiomounga was kicked off the team last month after being involved with the theft of a purse on campus.

Former FB/OL Kai Maiava was cited for underage possession and consumption of alcohol. Maiava has since transferred to UCLA to play for Slick Rick. We sure could have used Maiava this season on the offensive line, where he played as a true freshman before the coaches decided to convert him to a fullback. Maiava said that the position change, coupled with family issues were the reason he transferred. I wonder if the coaches have any regrets about that decision? I believe their is more to the story than what we know.

In March of this year, Riar Greer, probable starting tight end for the season, was accused of attacking two students at an off-campus party. His football season was in jeopardy while we awaited his arraignment on July 18th. Geer held out of offseason workouts but was able to resume playing. He missed the first two games because of injury before returning for West Virginia.

Also in early March, star recruit freshman LB Lynn Katoa was arrested on suspicion of second degree assault. He has since been suspended for the 2008 season and will red shirt due to being ineligible. Katoa was expected to see action in his freshman year especially after the loss of Jordan Dizon to the NFL. Katoa is still a question mark for 2009 as no one around the program seems extremely confident that he will see the field next year.

read more after the jump....

In April, potential starting LB Jake Duren was booted off the team for suspicion of first-degree criminal trespassing after being found bloody and smelling of alcohol in a hallway of the housing complex after smashing a car window.

In May, former DB Clyde Surrell, who was at the heart of the University of Colorado recruiting scandal in 2000, is once again reliving that past as a women is asking a judge to press charges against Surrell for an alleged rape in high school. During the 2000 season, Surrell was at the infamous party that began the CU scandal. Surrell was charged with providing alcohol to minors in 2001.

Michael Sipili, a LB who was suspended last year for the entire season as he pleaded guilty to misdemeanor assault after badly beating another student, was sued for injuries stemming from the same incident that led to the victim having long-term disfigurement and traumatic brain injuries. Christopher Perri, a former DL for the Buffs, was also sued for the same incident due to his role in instigating the ordeal.

Former Buffs QB Bernard Jackson and DB Lionel Harris were arrested in connection with armed robbery of a Boulder complex. Basically, they broke into an apartment, pulled a couple guns and demanded cash. Both should be going away for a long time after being booked with first degree burglary, aggravated robbery and felony menacing. According to police reports, Jackson and Harris may also be linked to several other incidents that have happened in the same area. Jackson was the often embattled quarterback in Hawkins first year as coach of the Buffs.

Also, sophomore WR Kendrick Celestine, who was expected to be a dynamic big play receiver, was fighting for his eligibility early in the spring as he needed to get a B in a summer course or else he would have been ineligible for the upcoming year. He made the grade but Celestine left the team in the middle of the year to go back home to Louisiana and attend to his newborn child. Celestine playedin his first two years as a Buff and was expected to be a 3rd or 4th option this year, especially with his explosive speed.

Devin Head, a starting offensive guard for Colorado this year, was also suspended for the game against Eastern Washington for being with freshman OL Ethan Adkins during a DWI. Ethan Adkins, also suspended, was expected to be a reserve tackle and not a significant impact player this year.

Three other expected impact players were also ineligible for this year due to academic issues: WR Markques Simas, OG Eric Faatagi and OT Sione Tau. Perhaps the biggest player missing was the big and explosive WR Markques Simas. Simas, known for this famous quote, will be expected to bring big things next year to an offense that was lacking playmakers in 2008:

"I did it in high school, but I realize I can’t do it in high school. The teachers are real strict and they really don’t know you all too well like a high school teacher would. I thought I could give them a smile or whatever and get the grade, but then I realized it doesn’t work. You can’t charm your way through college."

As recent as a couple of weeks ago, Simas has said that he is taking classes much more serious this year. Dan Hawkins even mentioned during one of his press calls that Simas has been terrorizing the starting defense this year in practice. Sione Tau and Erick Faatagi probably would have seen time this year with all of the offensive line issues.

Part of being a successful program is being respected on and off the field and building a reputation for potential recruits, the University of Colorado administration or potential donors. More importantly for Hawkins, these issues cannot happen next year for his ability to show progress and keep the faithful happy. Another offseason like this past one and a losing 2009 campaign, the amount of supporters will be thin. Losing and making bad headlines won't be something that the administration will tolerate. Until Colorado players start acting professional, the program may not be first class either.

Status	Depth	Name	Pos	Description
Ineligible	Backup	Simas, Markques	WR	Would have played this year
Ineligible	Backup	Tau, Sione	OT	Backup but would have seen time
Ineligible/Kick Off Team	Backup	Vaiomounga, Nate	OLB	Special Teamer/Backup
Ineligible	Backup	Erick Faatagi	OG	Backup/Starter
Ineligible	Red Shirt	Katoa, Lynn	ILB	Legal & Academic Issues
Suspended	Starter	Geer, Riar	TE	On Campus Fight
Suspended	Starter	Head, Devin	OG	Suspended for WVU game/Starter
Suspended	Backup	Adkins, Ethan	OT	Suspended Indefinitely
Left Team	Backup	Celestine, Kendrick	WR	Family Issues/Playing Time Issues
Kicked Off Team	Starter	Duren, Jake	LB	First-degree criminal trespassing
Left Team	Backup	Maiava, Kai	OG/FB	Angry with Switching Positions

Poll

What off-the-field issue hurt the Buffs the most this year on-the-field?

WR Markques Simas

28 votes

FB Kai Maiava

8 votes

OL Erick Faatagi

2 votes

LB Lynn Katoa

14 votes

OL Sione Tau

3 votes

LB Jake Duren

1 votes

WR Kendrick Celestine

2 votes

58 votes | Poll has closed

The Fog of '09 - North Offenses

Bill C. — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 15:00:06 -0000

Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football. Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season. Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons. Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers. Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge. Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs. Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility. While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened. And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected. Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived. Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen. Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous. Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009. Daniel and Harrell? Gone. Crabtree and Maclin? Almost certainly gone. McCoy, Bradford, Freeman? Possibly gone. Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris? Gone. Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility. So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus. Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion." For '09? "New" Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009. We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009. We'll start with the North Division. To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers. There will certainly be a time and place for that. Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings. And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits. Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy. Plus, you'll probably be wrong. Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

Quarterbacks

Kansas (Todd Reesing)
Kansas State (Josh Freeman--for now)
Iowa State (Austen Arnaud)
Missouri (Blaine Gabbert)
Nebraska (Patrick Witt/Zac Lee)
Colorado (Cody Hawkins/Tyler Hansen)

I probably shouldn't stick CU's duo below two relative newcomers at MU and NU, but I just can't help it. And if Josh Freeman is gone and Carson Coffman is next year's starter at KSU, pencil KSU into the #4 or #5 spot. And while either Gabbert or Witt/Lee (Pac Litt?) can or will overtake Arnaud by the end of the season, I couldn't rank two returning starters below QBs who've never taken a meaningful snap.

Running Backs

Missouri (Derrick Washington, De'Vion Moore)
Nebraska (Roy Helu Jr., Quentin Castille)
Kansas (Jake Sharp, Jocques Crawford)
Colorado (Rodney Stewart, Darrell Scott)
Iowa State (Alexander Robinson)
Kansas State (Lamark Brown, Logan Dold)

Of all the departures for '09, the running back position actually looks not only solid, but strong. Washington, Helu and Sharp are all relatively proven at this point, and at any moment Stewart and Scott could emerge in a big way. Even Alexander Robinson and Lamark Brown have had their moments this year. This is something to watch for '09--while offenses may not be as high-flying, they still might be pretty darn effective thanks to the ground games.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Kansas (Dezmon Briscoe, Kerry Meier, Johnathan Wilson)
Missouri (Jared Perry, Danario Alexander, Andrew Jones)
Kansas State (Brandon Banks, Deon Murphy, Aubrey Quarles)
Nebraska (Niles Paul, Menelik Holt, Mike McNeill)
Colorado (Josh Smith, Scotty McKnight, Riar Geer)
Iowa State (Houston Jones, Sedrick Johnson, Derrick Catlett)

Kansas is clearly #1 here, but after that, #2-#5 is something of a crapshoot. I feel like a homer for putting Mizzou at #2, but while they won't have the speed of KSU's unit, they'll still have the speed-size mix that few other teams do. And naturally, I'm assuming Jeremy Maclin is gone. Mizzou is clearly #1 if Maclin returns, but I very much do not see that happening. Paul and Holt could make NU's unit pretty effective, but they haven't gone all the way in proving that just yet.

Offensive Lines

Missouri (OG Kurtis Gregory, C Tim Barnes, OT Elvis Fisher)
Nebraska (C Jacob Hickman, OG Keith Williams, OT Jaivorio Burkes)
Colorado (OT Nate Solder, OT Ryan Miller, OG Devin Head)
Kansas State (OG Brock Unruh, OT Edward Prince, OT Nick Stringer)
Kansas (OT Jeremiah Hatch, OT Jeff Spikes)
Iowa State (OG Reggie Stephens, OT Ben Lamaak, C Alex Alvarez)

Missouri will have by far the highest-upside offensive line in the North next year. That can only help when a) protecting a young QB and b) clearing the way for the North's #1 RB. If Mizzou is to win the North despite having to replace Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin, it's Washington and the nice O-line who will get it done.

After Mizzou, NU's probably got the most upside in this unit. Colorado's fought through youth and injuries this year and could emerge next year with a solid O-line because of the struggles. After that...no idea. KSU returns quite a bit from an iffy-at-best O-line, and KU loses both starting guards and center. Not good. And while I like Reggie Stephens at ISU, he's about all ISU has.

So, keeping this as unscientific as possible, if we assign 6 points for every #1 ranking, 5 for every #2, et cetera, how do the North offenses add up?

North Offenses, 2009

Missouri (20 points)
Kansas (18 points)
Nebraska (15 points)
Kansas State (13 points)
Colorado (10 points)
Iowa State (8 points)

If Josh Freeman goes pro

Missouri (21)
Kansas (18)
Nebraska (16)
Kansas State (10)
Colorado (10)
Iowa State (9)

If Jeremy Maclin DOESN'T go pro

Missouri (21)
Kansas (17)
Nebraska (15)
Kansas State (13)
Colorado (10)
Iowa State (8)

I'm obviously not going to take this rather arbitrary ranking system too seriously and say "See? This proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that Missouri will have the best offense in the North next year!" or anything like that. This does show, though, that each team will have defined strengths and weaknesses (Mizzou = good running, iffy passing; Kansas = good passing, iffy blocking, KSU = good passing, no running, CU = possibly good running, no passing), which means unit-to-unit matchups and home-road scheduling will matter more next year than it has in the last couple of years.

And speaking of those matchups, tomorrow we'll look at North defenses.

Pos	Name	Injury	Last Year Production	Status
OG	Blake Behrens	*shoulder surgery	769 plays (12 gms), 3rd most on OL	Limited
FB	Jake Behrens	*knee surgery	Played in 12 gms, 2 TD, 75 yds receiving	Full Go
CB	Cha'pelle Brown	*shoulder surgery	starter, 4th in tkles, 1st in int, best DB in 08	Full Go
CB	Jalil Brown	*shoulder surgery	started 12 gms, 7th in tkles, 4 break ups	Limited
CB	Ben Burney	shoulder surgery	2007 starter, 2008 injured	Full Go
DT	Curtis Cunningham	*shoulder surgery	Productive true frosh, 12 games, 2TFL, 1 int	Limited
PK	Jameson Davis	*knee surgery	Kickoff guy and limited FG action	Out
WR	Jason Espinoza	broken collarbone	Potential special teams returner	Full Go
TE	Riar Geer	*shoulder surgery	Starting TE, 13 receptions, 2 TD's	Limited
OG	Devin Head	*shoulder surgery	Played in 11 games, 4th most plays on Oline	Limited
OG	Mike Iltis	knee surgery	Potential starter, hurt in offseason drills	Limited
ILB	Jon Major	knee surgery	Blue chip recruit, injured offseason drills	Limited
WR	Ryan Maxwell	shoulder surgery	Walkon	Full Go
OT	Ryan Miller	broken fibula	Starting RT before getting hurt in FSU game	Full Go
S	Ray Polk	shoulder surgery	Blue chip recruit, redshirt last year	Out
WR	Markques Simas	*finger surgery	Ineligible last year, talent to be big time player	Full Go
RB	Rodney Stewart	leg/ankle	08 leading rusher as a freshman, 669 yds	Full Go
OG	Max Tuioti-Mariner	torn ACL	Starter as a true freshman, hurt in practice	Out
TE	Luke Walters	stress fracture	Walkon	Out
QB	Cameron Wright	*shoulder surgery	Walkon	Limited
*denotes offseason surgery

SB Nation - Devin Head

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

2008

Coaching

Offense

Quarterback

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

Why They Will Win the Big 12 North - A Focus On Strengths

2009 Big 12 Football Previews: Colorado Buffaloes

Mizzou Links, 6-3-09

Offensive Guard, Devin Head, the Latest Player Off the Team

Five Things About Five Players - Things We Hope to Learn (Part Two)

Top Spring Ball Questions: Injuries, Injuries, Injuries

Who is Denver Johnson? Supposedly The New Buffs Offensive Line Coach, That's Who

How do you feel about Dan Hawkins hiring Denver Johnson to be the next offensive line coach for the Buffs?

Looks like a good hire on paper and seems to have plenty of qualifications (former offensive lineman, two time head coach, impressive who's who in assistant jobs, etc.) to be satisfied with the choice

I would have had preferred that they got someone who had more ties to CU like Stan Brock.

Worst of 2008 #10: Off The Field Issues

What off-the-field issue hurt the Buffs the most this year on-the-field?

WR Markques Simas

FB Kai Maiava

OL Erick Faatagi

LB Lynn Katoa

OL Sione Tau

LB Jake Duren

WR Kendrick Celestine

The Fog of '09 - North Offenses

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Offensive Lines

North Offenses, 2009