SB Nation - Riar Geer

The Sad Truth: 2009 Will Go Down As the Year the Colorado Buffaloes Blew It

irish1611 — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 23:02:02 -0000

As news came down today that Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson potentially might not playing tonight, I got to thinking about how the Colorado Buffaloes blew a great chance to make a mark this season. It is truly amazing how the schedule and the weakness of the Big 12 North set the Buffs up perfectly to return to the spotlight in '09 but using part of a quote from head coach Dan Hawkins, the Buffs did not "sieze the day." Look at the schedule below. Doesn't that make you sick? Granted, we now know the Buffs are less than stellar themselves but think if the Buffs' offensive line performed up to expectations, WR Markques Simas was coached and prepared to play like he was now from game one (not suspended), if Tyler Hansen started the year at quarterback, if the Buffs weren't at the bottom of the nation in turnovers & penalties, and the defense started the season like they have been playing the past few weeks. Yes, I know the saying about using "ifs" and "buts". I know. But Colorado blew it this year, no "ifs" or "buts" about it:

Going into the preseason, there were four teams the Buffs could lose to and you wouldn't be totally surprised - at West Virginia, at Texas, Kansas and at Oklahoma State. West Virginia because it was a road game and we knew that would be a tough environment. We thought Kansas and Todd Reesing would be back to their normal abuse of the Buffs like the previous three years. Games at Texas and Oklahoma State were the hardest two on the schedule and were considered the two contests the Buffs would most likely lose preseason. But Kansas isn't who we thought they were as the Buffs' beat them sending the Jayhawks into a downfall. Tonight, Oklahoma State might be playing without two preseason All Big 12 players and their All American candidate runnining back Kendall Hunter has been hurt six games in 2009.

- Colorado St. Rams - no reason to lose to them considering the year they are having. AT FOLSOM FIELD! (L)
-@ Toledo Rockets - no reason to lose to them considering the year they are having. (L)
- Wyoming Cowboys - Buffs won (W)
-@ West Virginia Mountaineers- would accept a loss preseason and now. Tough place to play on the road (L)
-@ Texas Longhorns - would accept a loss preseason and now. Game on the road. (L)
- Kansas Jayhawks - Buffs won, was expected to be a preseason loss (W)
-@ Kansas St. Wildcats - very winnable game against a mediocre Big 12 North opponent (L)
- Missouri Tigers - very winnable game against a mediocre Big 12 North opponent at home. (L)
- Texas A&M Aggies - Buffs won (W)
-@ Iowa St. Cyclones - very winnable game against a mediocre Big 12 North opponent (L)
-@ Oklahoma St. Cowboys - Kendall Hunter returned two weeks ago and may not be 100% but think about this. Oklahoma State tonight will be playing without Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant and a less than 100% Kendall Hunter...unbelievable the luck if we had a mentally tough team.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers - very winnable game against a mediocre Big 12 North opponent at home.

A relatively easy out of conference schedule, a mediocre Big 12 North schedule with winnable road games against Kansas State and Iowa State, a down Kansas team, and an Oklahoma State squad that is missing a lot of offensive fire power with Robinson and Bryant out...

But once again, you have to look back at the slow start to begin the year and not getting these guys ready to play. Not having momentum and excitement on the road and "overlooking" Colorado State as Riar Geer said defines this team and the opportunity they left on the table.

If there is any reason for a change in Boulder, look at 2009, how the chips fell in place and the way the Buffs responded. "10 wins no excuses" was supposed to motivate the players, a change at offensive coordinator and a return to a pro-style offense was supposed to put players in a better position to be successful. A deep linebacker corp was supposed to bolster the defense with the emergence of CB Jimmy Smith. Of course, the defensive line was a preseason concern but they have certainly outperformed expectations.

Instead, the Buffs can't run the ball with any consistency and they can't keep a mobile quarterback from getting sacked eight times a game. A quarterback change was made too late, Colorado continues to suffer on the mental side of the game with turnovers and penalties, the defensive scheme was too complicated at the beginning of the year which cost the Buffs' games and Colorado continues to play unmovitated football especially on the road, something the players have admitted multiple times this year.

I think this is the only case you need to make. In a year that any improvement over the previous three years should have at least netted the Buffs a low level Bowl birth, Colorado has three wins.

Five Questions - Colorado Buffaloes vs. Iowa State Cyclones

irish1611 — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 17:11:56 -0000

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Usually, we take the approach of discussing the keys to the game but today, the Colorado Buffaloes have to answer. Questions immediately start to swirl when the Buffs leave the state to play on the road. And they aren't necessarily football questions but questions about the makeup of this team. It is time for the Buffs to take the first step and answer those questions about their mentality, their toughness and their dedication to football. Today, a road win against a 5 - 5 Iowa State team in Ames where the Buffs have lost the last two games in heartbreak fashion would be a first step in the right direction.

1) Who is the player(s) in that locker room who will step up and lead today?

It has become clear that the coaching staff has not been able to motivate and prepare this team on the road. It is now time for the players or a player to lead this team and to me, the best leader in this situation is one who gets it going on the field. The Buffs need their big three - Tyler Hansen, Markques Simas or Rodney Stewart - to get things established early and lead the way.

The Buffs also need players to emerge as team leaders and get everyone focused before the game. No more excuses about energy today. No more excuses about not being ready on the road. Someone needs to step up and fix it.

2) Has the Offensive Line taken the criticism to heart and plays with a fire today?

Cut the sack total anyway you want, whether you think it is the running backs' fault or the quarterback's fault, the first line of defense is the offensive line. If they have pride today, they will take that blame, not divide it up among anyone else and play their best game of the year. They need to attack an undersized defensive line and establish dominance on the first snap of the game. Again, watch the first series, is Iowa State getting a push or are the Buffs getting after it up front. We will know very early if this unit is playing with motivation today.

To help the offensive line, the Buffs need to challenge the middle of the field where the linebackers reside. Using the tight end Riar Geer early will soften linebackers and take the multiple looks away from the Cyclones. Challenge the heart of the defense all day long.

3) How tough is the Colorado Buffalo defense?

Iowa State isn't flashy on offense, they aren't a big play team. What they are is a team with a good offensive line who has one of the better running games in the Big 12 while protecting the quarterback extremely well. They try to play "pound it" football while limiting mistakes. Can the Buffs answer the call up front against an Iowa State team who wants to run the ball? If Colorado can styme the running game and get pressure on Austen Arnaud when he passes, he has shown the propensity to turn the ball over and has been less than efficient this year.

It really is a game where the team who plays the best in the trenches should win. Are the Buffs's physically up to the challenge?

4) Are the Buffs focused enough to limit the mental mistakes?

The issues with special teams play, turnovers and piling up penalties have been well publicized this year. On the road, Colorado has averaged 10.5 penalties a game. The Buffs are 117th in the nation in penalties this year. Colorado is minus-4 on the road this year in turnover margin. At Austin, Colorado gave up 21 non defensive points (two special teams touchdowns and one interception for a score) while committing 20 penalties. At Morgantown, the Buffs' defense forced four turnovers, only for the Buffaloes' offense to give West Virginia the ball back three times. They also missed three field goals in that game. Against Toledo, Colorado turned the ball over four times and missed a field goal. In Manhattan, the Buffs missed an extra point and turned the ball over four times.

Simply put, the issues on the road are easily defined by turnovers, poor special teams play and an abundance of penalties.

5) Do the coaches feel the urgency of winning on the road and come out with one of their best game plans in the past four years?

I don't think much commentary is needed. Backs are against the wall, how will coaches prepare this team for a very winnable road game? Do they resort back to the past or is a change made today?

Go Buffs!

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Big 12 North Roulette Edition Recap

RPT — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:15:18 -0000

his week's SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable Recap takes a look at some of the different thoughts expressed around the Big 12 blogosphere. This week's participants included Double T Nation, I Am The 12th Man, Clone Chronicles, a power rankings submission from Rock M Nation, Corn Nation, and Bring On The Cats.

1. This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

It's a small sample size, but the group seems to agree that Texas would be beatable in this scenario. BracketCat of Bring On The Cats actually went through and created a two-deep for a North all-star team.

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

2. Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

Taking my phrasing of using the word "handicapping," Mark from Clone Chronicles breaks it down into odds:

K-State: I think they win 1 more game at the most, but I could see them lose out. How funny/sick would it be if they went 4-4, had a share of the Big 12 North lead, yet were not bowl eligible? Remember, they played 2 FCS teams, so they need to get to 7 wins, not 6. I think they finish either 3-5 or 4-4. I'd put a 5% chance on them winning the North.

Iowa State: It all depends on how healthy they are. I look at their schedule and see a small chance at 4-0, decent shot at 3-1, but most likely going 2-2. That would put them at 4-4 in the conference as well. Due to tiebreakers, Iowa State could get to 4-4 with losses to Kansas, K-State, and Missouri, which would put them out of it.. I think they would have to win out to win the North, so I'd put a 5% chance on them winning it as well.

Kansas: I think they lose @ Tech and @ Texas for sure. That puts them best case at 4-4. Losing to Colorado doesn't hurt them too much in tiebreakers if they beat Nebraska, K-State, and Missouri. I'd give them a 35% chance of winning the North.

Nebraska: I would not want to be a Nebraska fan right now. If their offense plays like it has the past two weeks, they win 1 or 2 more games max (@ Baylor and either K-State or @ Colorado). If they can figure out whatever their problem is, all of their games are winnable except for Oklahoma. I think they beat Baylor and Colorado. K-State is a tossup right now. I think Kansas is a loss, if the Jayhawks offense gets going. I think they can get to 4-4, but I could be talked into 3-5 pretty easily. I'd give them a 15% chance of winning the North.

Missouri: Easiest schedule down the stretch: @ Colorado, Baylor, @ K-State, Iowa State, and Kansas (at Arrowhead). Can you find 4 wins from that group? I can. They could even rip off a 5 game winning streak and take this thing. I'd be interesting if Iowa State was at 4-3 and Missouri was at 3-3 the week they played. Since I think they have the only chance to realistically win 5 games, they are my favorite at this point. I give them a 40% chance to win it. Truth be told, if they can win 4 games including Kansas, I think they would win the tie-breakers. They can win 5 of these games, likely will win 3-4, but even at 4, they have a chance to win the North.

Colorado: I think they probably lose out, sorry Ralphie. 0% chance of winning the North this year.

3. Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

Skin Patrol of Double T Nation still believes in Oklahoma, though not without a few good-natured barbs.

Er... well they beat Kansas, which means Oklahoma and Colorado have that in common now, I suppose. Cynicism aside, Vegas is still ruthlessly behind Oklahoma, and wise man say: When sinners are behind Sooners, general public should be too. OU politicking aside, the reality is that they've lost to some pretty good teams by some pretty slim margins, and are probably one of the better 4-3 teams in the country. A good rule of thumb for a team as talented and well-coached as Oklahoma is that if it looks dead, it's probably just sleeping.

4. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

Husker Mike of Corn Nation unofficially creates the "WTF" category for wins, a category that may or may not include at least 20 games at this point.

Taylor Potts will be transferring from Texas Tech at the end of the season? We knew A&M was bad, and Tech can be pretty good. But A&M's victory in Lubbock defies logic, unless you throw Potts under the bus. I think you've got to throw the A&M victory into the WTF category as the anomaly for now until A&M proves their mettle again. (Hell, even Colorado has managed to win a couple of games this season...)

5. Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

We are shocked -- shocked -- to learn that Beergut of I Am The 12th Man doesn't believe Texas found its mojo.

No, texas didn't find its mojo, they simply played a team that is tanking right now in Missouri. Missouri's leader is their QB, Blaine Gabbert, and with Gabbert injured right now, their offense is struggling. With no offense to lead them, they were sitting ducks for texas' defense. Missouri's defense is nothing to write home about outside of Sean Weatherspoon, so texas' offense looked better than they really are against them.

I do think texas will beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater, and I don't even think it will be close. OSU doesn't believe they can beat texas, and that mental edge will help texas. I do look forward to watching Joe Wickline's offensive line go up against texas' DL. If Oklahoma State can run the ball, they will make it a game, but I don't think that will happen.

6. Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

Noteworthy: Double T Nation abstained from voting.

1. Texas -- unanimous decision at the top
2. Oklahoma State -- edges out No. 3
3. Oklahoma -- just narrowly misses out sitting at No. 2
4. Texas Tech -- voters appear to think the A&M game was an aberration
5. Kansas State -- Huge variation for the Cats, who varied from No. 4 to No. 10
6. Nebraska -- That defense is top three. That offense is bottom three.
T7. Kansas -- 'Hawks vary between No. 4 and No. 11 on individual ballots
T7. Iowa State -- The Clones are starting to feel the love
9. Missouri -- Tigers in desperate need of a win after rough stretch to open Big 12 play
10. Texas A&M -- Further proof of the lack of trust in the Tech/A&M result
11. Colorado -- Didn't get voted any higher than No. 10
12. Baylor -- Fare thee well, Hot Tub Griffin

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable -- Big 12 North Roulette Edition

TB — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:15:48 -0000

via cdn0.sbnation.com

Another weekend, another crazy batch of results in the Big 12. Our answers to the most pressing questions of the day are below.

This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

TB: Yes, they could compete with UT, but sadly, I can't say with certainty they would win. I really miss 1996-2003.

Panjandrum: Honestly? Yes. It's not a silly question, per se, but to think that one team in this conference is THAT much better than an entire division is silly. Texas is not a complete team themselves; they struggle running the football, and that will come back to bite them.

I get why someone would ask this question, but truthfully, the answer is simple. The North all-star team would probably roll UT.

BracketCat: To properly answer this question, I need to see what such a team actually would look like. Here's my best stab at a two-deep:

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

TB: K-State needs only one more win to get into a possible tiebreaker, and two more wins would probably win the division outright. Two home games against division opponents remain. Odds: 10-1

Nebraska is 1-2, so it needs to win three out of five if we assume a 4-4 tiebreaker, or four out of five if we assume 5-3 wins it. Still has a home game with Oklahoma and road trips to Colorado and KU. Oh, and no confidence right now. Odds: 12-1

KU is 1-2 and, with road trips to Lubbock and Austin remaining, has zero margin for error. Throw in a trip to Manhattan and playing Missouri in Kansas City, and this is looking more like history <s>a</s>waits. Odds: 15-1

Missouri is 0-3 but by far has its easiest games left. Still, they need to win out to get to 5-3, and that's a tall task for a team with a hobbled quarterback and a defense that's pointing fingers right now. Odds: 15-1

While Iowa State is 2-2, they needed every bit of eight Nebraska turnovers to get there, and who knows how long they'll be without Austen Arnaud and Alexander Robinson. Without those guys, it looks like a bleak picture for ISU, although it's entirely possible they get bowl eligible as they only need one more win. Odds: 30-1

Colorado is 1-2, but has a coach who is hell-bent on playing his son at quarterback. Also, can't win on the road. Will be a threat at home, but they're the least likely team to take the division, in my opinion. Odds: 50-1

Now, do you see why I'm not an oddsmaker?

Panjandrum: If the magic number is five, I will try and handicap how likely it is that each team gets to five wins:

KSU: KSU has two more home games against North teams (KU/MU) and two road games (OU/NU). I still think NU beats KSU in Lincoln, but I'm going to favor KSU against KU and MU in Manhattan at this point. Neither of those teams look good on the road, and KSU has played well enough at home to win.

Since KSU only needs to win two of their next four to get to five wins, they seem the most likely at this point.

Odds: 30%

Nebraska: I don't like discounting a team with a really good defense, but unless they get their offense right, i don't think they can win four of five to get to the title game. A team with no confidence and a shaky QB situation is a bad, bad combo (just ask KSU about one month ago), but maybe the defense can carry them through.

Odds: 20%

Missouri: Missouri has to run the table to get to five wins. However, that's a little more manageable now that they have NU, UT, and OSU off of the table. We'll see how they fare against teams more on their level. But, the real question is what their 'level' is without a healthy Gabbert.

Odds: 20%

Iowa State: The Clones are a real feel good story right now, but they shouldn't have gotten out of Lincoln with a win. They need three wins, and with road games in College Station and Columbia, and a home game with Oklahoma State, I would say the chances of getting to five wins are pretty slim.

Odds: 15%

Kansas: KU needs four wins, and they have the most brutal schedule left of any of the North teams. They have three true road games (Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State), one neutral site game (Missouri), and one home game (Nebraska). There is no way in Hell that they're winning four games. Truthfully, KU fans better hope they win one more to get bowl eligible with that schedule.

Odds: 10%

Colorado: I'm not even going to do an analysis. Colorado is the worst football team I've watched KSU play this year (with the exception of the FCS teams). Yes, I thought Louisiana was better. They have no hope of winning the North or going to a bowl game, and Dan Hawkins should be fired because I can't stomach watching football that's that bad ever again.

Odds: 5%

BracketCat: Oh, man, I don't know jack about gambling. I'll defer to TB on this one.

Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

TB: I'll say that they showed they won't mail the season in. Also, they showed that it wasn't a fluke that they lost close games to (relatively) good teams in the non-con and the RRS. When it's all said and done, they'll be second or third in the South, meaning they'll be second or third in the conference overall. Not what Oklahoma is used to, but with an all-new offensive line and the injury bug biting at every skill position, not bad.

Panjandrum: Oklahoma is like a lot of the other teams in this conference; they're incomplete. Defensively, they're very, very good. Offensively, they struggle. I don't know if they're 'back on track' as much as exposed as a 'good but not great' team.

BracketCat: No, because KU sucks. Don't get me wrong -- Oklahoma is better than people have been giving them credit for, but the offense still is pretty painful to watch. Ironically, the Sooners remind me a lot of some of the classic TCU teams, including the one that beat them in Norman. Lots of defense, unimaginative offense. It's ironic because I think TCU would beat OU this year nine times out of 10.

Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

TB: They showed us each team's floor and each team's ceiling. K-State is only as bad as it played in Lubbock on its worst night, and is only as good as it played against Texas A&M on its best. Ditto A&M and Texas Tech. I understand the punditry's desire to use logic as an explanation for every result, but sometimes everything just goes horribly wrong in a game played by 18-22 year olds.

Panjandrum: Honestly, I think this says more about A&M than it does about any other team. I think they have a lot of weapons, but Mike Sherman is a mouth-breathing moron that can only gameplan a victory by blind luck.

BracketCat: They told me that comparative scoring is worthless and predicting game outcomes is all about understanding matchups. Texas Tech beat Kansas State because Tech's system is a terrible matchup for any team that has trouble scoring points. K-State beat Texas A&M because A&M hadn't yet played outside the state of Texas and was starting a gazillion freshman and sophomores.

A&M beat Tech because Tech always has had a problem with A) defending mobile quarterbacks once they get going, B) getting into a rhythm if the other team's running game is controlling the line of scrimmage, and C) turning it over repeatedly and losing at home to coaching geniuses like Dan Hawkins and Mike Sherman. See? Matchups.

Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

TB: Texas definitely needed a game where it got out to the races and put up big numbers and points. I still think OSU does have what it takes. It's going to be one of those special nights that, if the home team wins, its fans will never forget. The stadium will be packed, the bright national spotlight will be shining, and the inside track to a division championship and, for Texas, a national championship, is at stake. On paper, Texas looks better, but not overpoweringly better, and perhaps not enough to overcome the fired-up team they'll face Saturday.

Panjandrum: I think Texas is the best team in the conference, so beating a crippled Missouri team wasn't a surprise. Oklahoma State is a talented team that could possibly pull off an upset, but it's going to take a monumental effort from Zac Robinson if that's going to happen. No Dez Bryant or Kendall Hunter makes it that much more difficult.

BracketCat: In short, yes and yes. Texas got its act together just in time, because Oklahoma State has the running game to keep Colt McCoy off the field for long stretches of time. That said, I still think Texas will find a way to win this one. They just seem to have a hex over the Cowboys in Stillwater, even when they get down by multiple touchdowns as has happened many times in the past decade.

Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

TB:

1. Texas -- Big tilt in Stillwater will decide this team's championship aspirations.
2. Oklahoma State -- Quietly, Mike Gundy's crew is going about its business without its biggest stars, but the big test is Saturday.
3. Oklahoma -- Maybe not a national title contender this year, but still vastly superior to any North foe.
4. Texas Tech -- I'd like to drop the Pirates after that debacle in Lubbock, and I'm admonishing the Tech fans for chanting "No more Potts!" Way to throw one of your own under the bus. But back to the question: Who do you move ahead of these guys?
5. K-State -- On this day, in this place, I have to rank them here. The next four weeks will either solidify or decimate that opinion.
6. Nebraska -- Through it all, they still have that defense. Eight giveaways and ISU only scored nine points? If they ever get their offense figured out and get healthy, they'll be back as the favorite to win the North.
7. KU -- Any rational person knew they would probably lose to OU, but they didn't put up much of a fight and Todd Reesing doesn't look like himself right now. Can make amends with a win in Lubbock, but let's just say I'm not counting on that.
8. Missouri -- It's pretty simple right now. If Blaine Gabbert gets healthy, they're a contender in the North again. If he doesn't, they're not.
9. Iowa State -- I can hear the gasp to my northeast as Cyclone fans wonder how I can rank them this low at 2-2. Maybe it's a little unfair, but while you can't take that Nebraska win away from them, they needed every single one of NU's eight turnovers to win. On average, that's not going to happen very often.
10. Texas A&M -- This probably seems all wrong until you remember that some were ranking the Aggies 13th last week. Very nice win over Tech, and we're probably still putting too much stock into the big loss at K-State, but I'm not sure who I can bump.
11. Colorado -- Momentum from the KU win vanished in Manhattan. Buffs need to regroup.
12. Baylor -- Yeah.

Panjandrum:

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma State
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech
5. Nebraska
6. K-State
7. Missouri
8. Kansas
9. Texas A&M
10. Iowa State
11. Colorado
12. Baylor

BracketCat: Man, this gets harder every week.

1. Texas -- Finally playing like the most powerful team in the Big 12, and just in time.
2. Oklahoma -- Defense alone makes them the second-best team in the conference.
3. Oklahoma State -- After this week, both Oklahoma schools should have the same Big 12 record.
T4. Nebraska -- Despite an embarrassing two-week stretch, I still think this is the most talented defense in the North. Combined with a sort-of-favorable schedule, it should be enough.
T4. Texas Tech -- You gave up 50+ to Mike Sherman? WTF? Sorry, that negates even the head-to-head tiebreaker.
T6. Kansas -- Let's just call this the muddied middle. It should sort itself out in the next three weeks.
T6. Iowa State -- Ditto. I'm making allowances for injuries here.
T6. Missouri -- Not as bad as their record, but not as good as the hype.
T6. Kansas State - Still not sure we're not a product of our schedule a little bit. Again, will know a lot more in three weeks.
10. Texas A&M -- Big win gets you out of the basement... for a while.
11. Baylor -- Despite meeting my 12th-place criteria with an ugly blowout loss at home, I still think the Bears would beat the Buffs on a neutral field.
12. Colorado -- Oops. Guess you actually do suck after all. You just sucked a little less than KU on one particular Saturday.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

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Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

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Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

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Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Colorado

BracketCat — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 17:00:19 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (4-3 | 2-1) VS. Colorado Buffaloes (2-4 | 1-1)

Homecoming
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

FCS

Flush off an upset victory over the overrated Kansas Jayhawks, the Buffaloes storm into town looking to tie us for first place in the Big 12 North.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see The Ralphie Report.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (33 of 50, 411 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (30 catches, 354 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (145 carries, 669 yards, 8 TD)

Wild Card
Jeffrey Fitzgerald (22 tackles, 7 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 2 FR, 2 FF)

Passing
Tyler Hansen (17 of 30, 192 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Scotty McKnight (35 catches, 370 yards, 3 TD)

Rushing
Rodney Stewart (104 carries, 418 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
Riar Geer (25 catches, 284 yards, 3 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (33 | +5) > CU (108)

Passing Offense
CU (61) > K-State (95 | -4)

Total Offense
K-State (69 | +6) > CU (103)

Scoring Offense
K-State (58 | +41) > CU (78)

Rushing Defense
K-State (26 | +24) > CU (66)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (68 | +16) > CU (102)

Total Defense
K-State (47 | +6) > CU (96)

Scoring Defense
K-State (63 | +3) > CU (100)

Net Punting
K-State (89 | +3) > CU (114)

Punt Returns
K-State (31 | -3) > CU (107)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (7 | +16) > CU (26)

Turnover Margin
K-State (24 | +37) > CU (77)

Pass Defense
K-State (81 | -16) > CU (105)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (55 | +16) > CU (109)

Analysis

Last week, there was a whole lotta red. This week, it's all about the green, baby.

On paper, we should dominate Colorado. Yes, their performance last week was impressive from an emotional standpoint, but as Kevin Romary once said, by this time in the season, "ya are who ya are."

Colorado still can't run the ball with any consistency (108th in the nation). A quarterback change won't help that much — that problem is on the offensive line.

Tyler Hansen also will be hard-pressed to raise the Buffaloes' overall offensive numbers (103rd in the country), despite bringing more of a run threat to the table. That's because the Buffs still have the weakest set of wide receivers in the Big 12.

On defense, Colorado truly struggles to cover the pass (102nd in pass efficiency defense), which is instant death in most Big 12 games. Not so much against us, but something tells me Grant Gregory should have a solid outing regardless. Yes, Colorado generated pressure on Kansas for the first time all season, but I still think that was more about the Jayhawks' crappy interior OL than it was about Colorado's DL. Plus, Colorado has one of the least talented and least disciplined secondaries in the country — which you saw if you watched the second half, when Reesing lobbed jump ball after jump ball against them for huge gains.

Colorado's overall scoring defense isn't much better (100th).

In the field position, we also have a huge advantage, and it's not just because of Brandon Banks. At 114th in the nation, Colorado is the first team we have played all year that is worse than us in net punting. I didn't think that was possible, even though we have made incremental improvements each week.

On the flip side, the Buffaloes are 107th in punt returns. We could be playing a lot on the opponent's side of the 50 for the second straight week.

Finally, to complete the ignominy, Colorado is 105th in passing defense and 109th in passing efficiency.

Look, I know Buff fans are all excited about Hansen, and rightfully so, but Cody Hawkins didn't punt or play defense. Colorado is 2-4 for a reason, and I haven't seen that many sub-100 statistics since ... well, Ron Prince's team last year. But even Prince's teams were better on offense than Colorado has been.

Don't read too much into the rushing defense performances against Texas and Kansas, either. Both teams look to throw first, throw second and then maybe run third. Both got behind early and threw to catch up. Both have suffered injuries to their starting running backs this season, and Texas had an injured backup, too. Neither team has Daniel Thomas.

The more I examine this matchup, the harder it is for me to envision Colorado winning. Hell, the one category the Buffs outclass us in — passing offense (they are 61st; we're 95th) — isn't even really an advantage, because they chose to make themselves a one-dimensional passing team and ride Cody Hawkins' arm, for some reason. Passing offense measures pure yardage, but a much better measure of pure passing power is passing efficiency, or yards per throw/catch. We're 55th and they're 109th. Gregory is the most efficient quarterback in Big 12 play so far.

And I haven't even talked about intangibles yet. We're 3-0 at home (and should have at least 45,000 fans there tomorrow), 2-0 in day games and 2-0 on FCS (not that that really means anything). And we have the best coach in America.

I'm not trying to slight Buffs. To pull off the win last week like they did and give themselves even a shred of hope after the terrible start they endured is impressive and commendable. But they're still not a great team. We're not a great team, either, but even through our early struggles we have looked better in all phases of the game than Colorado has. We're better coached, have better athletes across the board and are playing at home. There is no excuse to lose this game, and if we do, our season pretty much is over.

Key stats to watch for: We need to jump on them early and score at least three touchdowns in the game. K-State is 3-0 when leading after halftime (and 3-0 when leading after the third quarter) and 4-0 when scoring 20 or more points. Stifling the Buffs on defense will help, too; we're 2-0 when allowing 10 points or less (and 74-0 since 1990). Most important, we must protect the ball (duh). K-State is 2-0 when we don't turn it over.

Factor in that we have yet to run back a punt or block a punt and probably are due, and I think it could end up being a long day for the Buffs if all goes well.

Like I said, on paper, we should win. But games aren't played on paper. That 11:30 a.m. start continues to worry me, as does our inconsistency this season. But the Buffaloes' upset of Kansas had to be emotionally draining, and this will be a taxing road trip for them. At some point, you just gotta have faith in Bill Snyder. I'm picking it close, but if we turned the corner I think we did last week, it could end up ugly.

Prediction: Kansas State 31, Colorado 26

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Oklahoma State won in College Station, so they shouldn't have too many problems in Waco, either.

I know Nebraska is having an identity crisis right now, but Memorial Stadium is an exceedingly tough place to play (and coach). I suspect Iowa State used up all of its good luck karma against KU and K-State, and still didn't get the job done. The Huskers will get right tomorrow.

I know I said yesterday that OU will win, and I still believe that to be the case. But this is the first of OU's challenging "L" games (Lawrence, Lubbock, Lincoln), and I just can't shake that ugly feeling I had in 2007 that KU might find a way to win. At any rate, I'm picking the Hawks solely to jinx them, so don't read too much into it.

Everyone is predicting a huge blowout in Lubbock, but wouldn't it just be like the Aggies to find a way to win that game? I don't think they will, but if they have any pride left, it might be closer than most think.

Longhorns will get it done. I'm not impressed by Missouri at all and I'm starting to think they actually might have the worst coach in the North, not Colorado. Yeeouch.

#14 Oklahoma State at Baylor (Versus)
Cowboys 29, Bears 23

Iowa State at Nebraska (FSN)
Cornhuskers 30, Cyclones 16

#25 Oklahoma at #24 Kansas (ABC)
Jayhawks 22, Sooners 21

Texas A&M at #21 Texas Tech
Red Raiders 35, Aggies 15

#3 Texas at Missouri (ABC)
Longhorns 23, Tigers 14

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

Film Session: The Game Winning Touchdown Against Kansas

irish1611 — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 02:19:06 -0000

My favorite play of the Kansas game and it just shows you that if this team executes, beautiful plays can follow. This run features three blockers - TE Riar Geer ( the star of the final drive after the false start penalty on the first play), OT Ryan Miller and OG Matt Bahr - who perform their tasks perfectly, giving Rodney Stewart a wide open hole for the go ahead touchdown.

The Buffs line up in a double tight end formation with twins to the left. Kansas comes out in their base 4 - 3 set but shade their linebackers and safeties over to the strong side of the field (towards the bottom of the screen). The play call is an off tackle handoff to Rodney Stewart towards the bottom of the screen. Both the backside guard and tackle, Matt Bahr and Ryan Miller, are pulling to escort Stewart through the hole.

Riar Geer has the most important block to get the play going. The bottom tight end, his job is to outside release and get his head on the outside shoulder of the defensive end across from him and move him towards the middle of the field. If he lets the defensive end get outside of him or push him up field, one of the pulling offensive lineman will have to double team the defensive end leaving a Kansas defender unaccounted for. Riar Geer has the defensive end (#3), Matt Bahr will pull around and have responsibility for the first man who cross the line of scrimmage which will be the outside linebacker (#2) and Ryan Miller will have the next guy to cross the line of scrimmage and show his face which will be the middle linebacker (#1).

Riar Geer may have the most important block at the point of attack but if the other three lineman don't handle their players, the play is shot and the pulling guard/tackle will have to change their plan and help out. Fortunately, for the Buffs everyone else on the line does their job...and it is a well executed play.

A little hard to see but look at Riar Geer in the yellow circle. That is a picture perfect seal block, shielding a collapsing defensive end and pushing him back into the middle of the field with Geer keeping his back to the hole where Rodney Stewart needs to go. Just a great job. As expected, you can see how the play is shaping up. Matt Bahr and Ryan Miller are pulling from the backside of the line (top of the screen) and the first two players in the hole, just as you draw it up, is the outside linebacker and the middle linebacker. As an offensive coordinator, you love the matchup: Two on two for the score as Riar Geer and the rest of the offensive line did their job.

As you can see, Matt Bahr takes down the outside linebacker and Ryan Miller seals the middle linebacker, creating a great hole for Rodney Stewart to work through. Look at Riar Geer (yellow arrow). This is why a few people believe he can be an NFL prospect. That is a defensive end who he just manhandled. He is still engaged and blocking him away from the play well after Stewart passes him. That is a big time block by a senior and a captain.

Touchdown Buffs. Great to see this sort of execution late with the game on the line. They were in the redzone, smelt blood and dominated up front.

Thursday Buff Bites - Buff Commit's Hirschman and Jones Having Great Senior Seasons

irish1611 — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 01:17:32 -0000

Littleton star Mister Jones tunes up to defeat adversity - The Denver Post

The Denver Post has a nice article on Buff commit RB Mister Jones:

Jones said Colorado is a "dream school" for him. He said he got a kick out of Colorado's upset last week of Kansas last Saturday, considering a Jayhawks' coach told him before the game he was about to see why Kansas would be a better choice.

Mister Jones' Littleton high school team takes on perennial Colorado power Monarch this weekend at Littleton Public Schools Stadium at 2:00pm Saturday. Could be a good time to get out there and watch him after the Buffs play and a pretty mild college football schedule this week. This will be a tough game up for Littleton as their offensive and defensive line probably won't match up very well with Monarch.

Football Top 15 | After School - Mercury News

A little news about Buff QB commit Nick Hirschman who is having one heck of a senior season:

Nick Hirschman is having a Trent Edwards type of season completing 75 percent of his passes for 1,306 yards with 17 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions.

Current Buffalo Bills QB Trent Edwards also went to Los Gatos High School where Nick Hirschman attends.

KSU special teams pose challenge - Boulder Daily Camera
The Buffs special teams have certainly had their issues the past couple of years and Kansas State is another team that could give them fits. If the Buffs hope to win on the road for the third time in the last four years, Colorado will need to contain Brandon Banks from taking it to the distance this weekend. All touch backs and high punts:

Colorado special teams units are only two weeks removed from a disaster at Texas that might have cost the team an upset win over a top-five team. The Buffs travel to Kansas State this week where they will see another stiff challenge in the kicking game. KSU return man Brandon Banks is among the most dangerous returners in the nation, despite being undersized at 5-foot-7 and 150 pounds. Banks already has returned three kickoffs for touchdowns this season and has four in his career. He also starts at wide receiver and ranks second in the Big 12 Conference and 10th nationally in all-purpose yardage. He had five catches for 95 yards against the Buffs last year but was not filling the return roles at that time.

The Longmont Times-Call - Notes

CU lists Bryce Givens as its starting right tackle for Saturday. Givens missed the Kansas game, his second of the season, for what CU is calling personal reasons. ... CU reported 10,000 tickets remain for Missouri (Oct. 31, 11:30 a.m., FSN). ... CU mascot Ralphie will make an "in-buffalo" appearance Saturday at a watch party at the Blake Street Tavern from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. ... The Buffs are holding opponents to a 35 percent conversion rate on third down, good for fifth in the Big 12.

Big 12 predictions, Week 8 - Big 12 - ESPN
Tim Griffin of ESPN picks against the Buffs against the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan:

Kansas State 24, Colorado 21: Look for a tight defensive battle in this one as the improving Wildcats hook up against new Colorado quarterback Tyler Hansen. The Buffaloes looked transformed under Hansen, who directed them to the upset victory over Kansas last week. He’ll be challenged by a KSU defense that notched six sacks and produced three interceptions last week. The Wildcats have been limited at quarterback with Grant Gregory and Carson Coffman alternating time this season. But look for the Wildcats to win this one because of the Buffaloes’ difficulties on the road and the coaching acumen of Bill Snyder.

What to watch in the Big 12, Week 8 - Big 12 - ESPN

5. Kansas State’s rejuvenated pass rush against Colorado.

The Wildcats produced six sacks last week against Texas A&M as their defensive pressure served as the key defensive factor for them against the Aggies. Earlier in the season, the Wildcats had produced six other sacks in the first six games. The Wildcats have to continue to dial up that pressure, but it will be a difficult challenge against elusive Colorado quarterback Tyler Hansen.

6. After all those early stumbles, could Colorado really be a North challenger? And is Kansas State really a division challenger?

We’ll find that out when the Buffaloes travel to Kansas State. Kansas State made a turnaround of 100 points in two weeks after losing by 52 points to Texas Tech and then beating Texas A&M by 48 points the following week -- the biggest two-week turnaround in victory margin in Big 12 history. That run has pushed the Wildcats into first place in the North over three other teams, including the Buffaloes who are a half-game behind. The Wildcats can continue their unexpected run to title contention by winning on Saturday in Manhattan.

CU Buffs tight end Riar Geer reaching his potential - Boulder Daily Camera

Geer`s value to the Colorado offense can`t be overstated. He is a crafty route runner and reliable pass catcher, whom quarterback Tyler Hansen mentioned as one of the players he feels most comfortable with in the passing game. He is capable of lining up as a wide receiver, a traditional tight end and as a fullback. He also has become one of the best blockers on the team.

YouTube - Jeff Bzdelik at Big 12 media days

CU basketball coach Bzdelik: Team will be "fearless" - The Denver Post

"We will be better," Bzdelik said. "We're in an unforgiving league called the Big 12. So, we'll just take it one day at a time. We will be prepared. We will play hard. We'll be fearless. We'll see where that takes us." The 2008-2009 Buffaloes lost 11 games by an average of 4 1/2 points. "Last year, we weren't deep enough, strong enough, mature enough," Bzdelik added. "We've gotten deeper, with the addition of new players. We've gotten maturity and strength with working hard in the weight room. And we gained valuable experience from last year with playing (four players) 30-plus minutes."

Film Session: The Game Winning Drive Against Kansas, Play Two

irish1611 — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 03:32:45 -0000

Part two of the Film Series breaking down last week's game takes us to the second of three third down conversations on the Buffs' go-ahead drive midway through the fourth quarter. The first play we looked at was successful because of Tyler Hansen's ability to create something out of nothing and Riar Geer's savy to find a hole in the zone on 3rd and long. This second play was offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau dialing up the perfect play call for the situation with QB Tyler Hansen making a good read on the defense and TE Riar Geer running a quick turn-in route to perfection.

The Situation: 3rd and Four, down 30 - 27 to the Kansas Jayhawks, 10:33 left in the game.

The Buffs come out in a double tight formation with TE Riar Geer lined up at right end and TE Ryan Deehan lined up at left end. RB Darrell Scott is the lone running back with wide receivers split to both sides. Unlike the last third down, the Jayhawks line up in a more agressive look. Still in their base 4 - 3, the middle linebacker (orange arrow) creeps up to the line of scrimmage to show a five man rush. The other two linebackers are split man-to-man in coverage responsibility against the tight ends, the two cornerbacks are man-to-man on the receivers and the top safety has running back responsibility (green arrows).

Hansen sends Darrell Scott in motion to the top right which opens up the middle of the field.

Now in an empty set, the Jayhawks get confused on who has coverage on the motion man out of the backfield (yellow circle) as both the left outside linebacker and safety walk out against the slot receiver as the top corner shifts over on Scott. The confusion leads a big void in the middle of the field (blue circle). Tyler Hansen and Riar Geer (blue arrow) reads this and the play is off to a good start.

Kansas gets back into their defensive formation but the outside linebacker up top is still out of position for Geer to run to a wide open middle of the field. The goal for Riar Geer now is to attack the inside shoulder of the outside linebacker and create a natural throwing lane towards the inside of the field on the turn in route (blue turn in arrow). Attacking the inside shoulder will give Geer the power position and keep the linebacker shielded from the throw, providing a clean target for his quarterback. TE Ryan Deehan on the bottom of the screen is occupying the right outside linebacker and the middle linebacker (orange arrow) is still showing blitz. Play looks to be a slam dunk before it even starts.

But not everything is as it seems. The Jayhawks attempt to confuse the young quarterback and offensive line, dropping an interior lineman (yellow circle) into the throwing lane. The defense is hoping that the jammed receivers on the outside with a lineman temporarily occupying Geer's throwing lane would cause Tyler Hansen to panic and disrupt his rhythm on third and short. A play that seemed to be a easy first now requires some patience.

Geer is successful in getting the linebacker shielded from the ball (blue arrow) but the interior lineman is still in his back peddle in the throwing lane for Tyler Hansen to make the throw to Riar Geer. Tyler Hansen now has to wait for the "window to open" as quarterback coaches preach. Geer will continue to work back to the ball (blue arrow) keeping that shield between he and the linebacker while the defensive lineman will continue to look at Hansen while dropping, not knowing where Geer is (yellow line). The pass protection is solid and Hansen has the time to wait for the "window to open" and let the dropping defensive lineman clear, delivering a perfect pass to Riar Geer, two yards behind the line to gain.

See where the defensive lineman ends up (yellow arrow). He is three yards outside and two yards behind Geer when the ball is delivered. Good job by Hansen to read the defensive scheme and deliver a good ball to Geer who successfully shielded his man for another third down conversion

Good play call here and better execution by Hansen to not put the ball right in the stomach of a dropping defensive lineman.

Film Session: The Game Winning Drive Against Kansas, Play One

irish1611 — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:51:38 -0000

I had to go back and breakdown the drive that allowed the Colorado Buffaloes to take the lead in the fourth quarter, highlighting the special third down plays that QB Tyler Hansen was able to complete in only his third start of his collegiate career. Special props to Burnt Orange Nation for the idea of breaking plays down with screen shots from the game.

The Situation - Colorado just went behind 30 - 27, 13 minutes left in the game. Riar Geer gets flagged for a false start on first down, backing the Buffs up to the 19 yard line. Two incompletions follow and the Buffs are now in deep trouble. A punt here gives a hot Kansas offense the ball back with great field position and a chance to extend the lead to two scores with minimal time remaining in the ball game. The Buffs need a play on 3rd and 15.

The Buffs come out in a strong (tight end lined up to the left) slot left formation. The Jayhawks show a base 4 - 3 and they only bring four linemen on the pressure, understandable considering the Buffs have to get 15 yards and Kansas looks to be dropping their linebackers for coverage. WR Scotty McKnight is lined up towards the tight end on the bottom of the screen and will come in motion. The play was initially called to run McKnight in motion run from left to right, use the top wide receivers to run off the corner backs to create space and find the void underneath for McKnight to get up and make a play. But the play breaks down early as Hansen wanted to roll right with McKnight on the play action fake. Their is a miss-communication up top with Ryan Miller at tackle and Matt Bahr at guard as they both block down, leaving the Kansas left defensive end Jeff Wheeler unblocked and unaccounted for. This may have been by design to get the end up quickly and allowing McKnight to run freely underneath with a quick flip pass over the top but usually you chip that end so the QB can get his head around on the playaction pass. Jake Laptad, the right Kansas defensive end tries to meet Wheeler in the backfield pushing Nate Solder towards Hansen.

Hansen goes on the play action fake, McKnight (orange arrow) goes across the field to make the catch in the flats. You can see the top left outside linebacker for the Jayhawks would have made a play on McKnight if the ball went to him. Matt Bahr and Ryan Miller release down (yellow arrow) leaving Wheeler (blue arrow) well up field as Hansen is finishing the play action fake. TE Riar Geer (red arrow) releases upfield while DE Jake Laptad gets a good up field push on Nate Solder (green arrow).

The play looks shot with Wheeler getting up the field and many of the options gone as the play was designed to go to McKnight and certainly towards the right side of the field.

Time for Hansen to make a play. He makes a quick jab step to the left, freezing Laptad and sliding underneath Wheeler, extending the play and moving to the right. This is the bonus of having Tyler Hansen in the game, this sort of athletic ability that can potentially save a game. The play is now in playground mode and the Buffs are exactly where they started, still needing 15 yards but now everyone needs to improvise to make it happen. Hansen quickly regroups and focuses his head back up the field.

Moving to his right, Hansen shows good mechanics and delivers a strike up the middle to a backside receiver in TE Riar Geer between three would be defenders. Geer makes a great run after the catch the Buffs get 29 yards to the Kansas 48 yard line.

This was the first of three third down conversions orchestrated by Tyler Hansen on this game deciding drive. Not bad for a player with three starts.

Tonight, I will breakdown two other crucial plays from this drive, another completion to Riar Geer on third down where the Jayhawks dropped an interior lineman right into the passing lane and Hansen did a great job letting Geer clear the defender to get the ball to him in the window. The final play will show you the game deciding touchdown where Matt Bahr and Ryan Miller make up for the mis-communication above, pulling to the left side of the formation and clearing a hole for a 13 yard Rodney Stewart touchdown run.

There was definitely some offensive growth from the Buffs on this drive.