SB Nation - Conrad Obi

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

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Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

---

Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

Wednesday Buff Bites - Just Can't Seem to Catch A Break

irish1611 — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:05:42 -0000

In arguably the two biggest weak spots on the entire football team, the Buffs have potentially lost four newcomers that were being counted on to elevate their respective positions. Most recently, blue chip commit DE Nick Kasa partially tore his MCL after being rolled up on during practice on Monday. Instead of deciding whether to use the swim or the rip move to get around the Colorado State offensive tackle, Kasa is now weighing the options of playing a shortened freshman season or redshirting. The 6'7" defensive end was the potential rush end that would not only play a role in getting to the quarterback but be a consistent mainstay of the Buffs defense.

Staying on the defensive side of the ball, the Buffs also lost another blue chip recruit in DT Edward Nuckols, who failed to academically qualify out of high school. He is expected to grey shirt but once you start down that "difficulty in qualifying" path, who knows if we will ever see him in black and gold. Nuckols says he will be back in Boulder which is good news for 2010.

Now instead of four defensive linemen in the 2009 recruiting class, the Buffs might only have two to try and sure up one of the most important tasks in all of football; getting to the quarterback.

The equivalent weakness on the offensive side as it wide receiver. Last month, good news about junior college transfer Andre Simmons qualifying was being filtered throughout the media. Well, the Buffs are two weeks into camp and still no 6'3" 210 pound sub 4.5 running receiver on the field. And the situation doesn't look like their is a happy ending. Instead of Coach Hawkins relaying the "everything is fine, we are just dealing with paperwork" scenario for Simmons, the news wire has gone silent. Who knew it would be this hard to get an answer from the different "ruling bodies" in charge? I feel for Andre Simmons who has been on one large roller coast ride in trying to jump through hoops to academically appease both the NCAA Clearinghouse and the University of Colorado Admissions office.

But, at least we have Markques Simas, right? He and Scotty McKnight teamed to together will be an upgrade over the past three years at wideout, right? Nope, Markques Simas is suspended for the first two games for violating team rules or something like that "a long time ago." Around the same time as Simas' suspension, West Virginia went the opposite route in dealing with their receiver who had an incident "a long time ago;" suspend early reinstate before impacting games. West Virginia has reinstated leading receiver Jock Sanders six months after a drunken-driving arrest in Morgantown.

As any coach would now say, he needs the players who are "able" to play at defensive line and wide receiver to step up and claim the starting spots. And as fans, that is all we can hope for. Good news out of camp is that late 2009 signee Will Jefferson has looked good at reciever and is ahead of Jarrod Darden and Terdema Ussery, two other freshman recievers. But expecting big production out of freshmen doesn't always lead to a happy ending either. As for defensive line, until they actually lineup against a different colored jersey, who knows? But now, more than ever, the Buffs will be counting on Conrad Obi, Lagrone Shields, Will Perciak, Curtis Cunningham, Tyler Sale and Marquez Herrod to he the anchors of the defense.

One thing is for sure, a lot of eyes will be on these two positions come September 6th.

Links after the jump...

The Wiz of Odds: Let the Voting Begin for Poster Primary No. 4
Vote for the great Colorado Buffaloes schedule poster and look at how horrible to Colorado State poster is. Talk about portraying the wrong message!

Brooks: Q&A With Cody H. - CUBuffs.com
Junior quarterback Cody Hawkins talks about camp, the season, the change in offensive coordinators and more.

The Longmont Times-Call -Article on Buffs' Linebacker B.J. Beatty

Bob Foster, CU’s outside linebackers coach for 2009, said it remains to be seen how good Beatty can be. "I think he has great quick feet," Foster said. "I think against certain tackles and guards, he’ll be really good. He’s still learning. "The only thing he lacks is a little bit of size when it comes to some of those big-old tackles with those long arms out there. He has great movement, great quick feet. ... He has to learn to use the tools he has — his arms and his hands and his hips, how he can move his hips to put a move on these big slow tackles. He’s not going to do a lot of power rushing."

Young Texan stands tall on D-line - The Denver Post
With Edward Nuckols out for 2009 and Nick Kasa looking to be out for a better part of season, DT Nate Bonsu might be the one from the 2009 recruiting class to solidify the Buffs defensive line:

On either side of the ball, most freshman linemen could use a year in the weight room. Bonsu, however, arrived ready to go.

"He's really strong," junior defensive end Marquez Herrod said. "He squats almost what I do (600- to 700-pound range), and I've been here three years."

The Longmont Times-Call - Tempering Wide Receiver Expecations

So the chances that Jefferson, Terdema Ussery and Jarrod Darden — a talented core of true freshmen — will somehow work themselves onto the field this season is pretty likely, although Eric Kiesau won’t admit it just yet. "We’re expecting so much out of these guys, but we’ve got to keep pinching ourselves and saying, ‘These guys were in high school four months ago, and now we’re expecting them to go out and play against some senior cornerbacks that have been in the Big 12 for a long time,’" the Buffs’ offensive coordinator said. "That’s why we have to have a ground check. These kids are still learning, and they’re still young. But they continue to get better as camp goes through." Kiesau did say Jefferson, a late arrival to Boulder after the Buffs offered him a scholarship just before camp began, is probably "a little further along" than the other two, but they’re all in the mix.

Buffs' starter not only QB in question - Colorado Daily
Third string is also a batte in fall camp. As they always say, you are just two plays away from being the starting quarterback.

Lobato finds right fit at CU — Loveland, Colo., Reporter-Herald
Walk on freshman quarterback Seth Lobato has opened eyes at Buffs camp, even garnering more attention than Clark Evans at times.

Brooks: Goodman Finds Perspective - CUBuffs.com
Placement specialist Aric Goodman believes he's put a sub-par 2008 season behind him and is on track to rebound in 2009.

The Longmont Times-Call - Ray Polk Showing Well at Safety
Healed and ready to hit Buffs’ Polk rebounds from surgeries to make mark as defensive back

Chat: Chat with Tim Griffin - SportsNation - ESPN
Tim Griffin thinks a bowl trip for the Buffs is in the cards in 2009:

Travis (Omaha, Nebraska) Colorado is getting very little talk, but I believe they are a legitimate contender for the Big 12 North. What are your thoughts on the Buffs?

Tim Griffin (2:23 PM) Travis:You are right. The Buffaloes are getting little mention behind either Kansas, Nebraska and even Missouri in the North. The quarterback situation troubles me. Don't know if Cody Hawkins has the arm to really exploit Big 12 teams. Also the loss of Josh Smith to UCLA and Markques Simas for two games will hurt. But I do like their cornerbacks, who are among the best in the conference and a real weapon in this conference. I think the Buffaloes will run the ball with a collection of running backs. And another to keep your eye out for is the fact that all of their major games against major North Division foes -- Missouri, Nebraska and Kansas -- will be at home. Add it together and I think they might surprise some people. I definitely think a bowl trip is in the offing this season.

Buffs Will Play Thursday's Scrimmage at Regis High School
The Buffs will travel Thursday afternoon to Regis High School for work that is closed to the public and media. Reason for the road trip: To get the team used to travelling and playing in an unfamiliar venue, Hawkins said

CU's Kasa mulling redshirt : Boulder Daily Camera

Colorado freshman defensive end Nick Kasa might have to undergo surgery after a magnetic resonance imaging test revealed he suffered a partially torn medial collateral ligament on Monday during two-on-two pass-rushing drills. Kasa said CU doctors and athletic trainers have told him to expect a 6-8 week recovery time, which could allow him to return prior to the beginning of conference play in early October. "Right now, they don’t really know," Kasa said. "It could heal itself or maybe not. We’re just going see what happens. Surgery could be an option or it could not be."

CSU's QB picture is getting clearer | coloradoan.com
The Colorado St. Rams QB race might be down to two participants due to injuries to the other two quarterbacks.

Grant Stucker and Jon Eastman not only are the top contenders to become CSU's starting quarterback this fall, they might be the only candidates.

Catch Up Buff Bites - Clearance Issues, Suspensions, Missions...We Got It All At CU

irish1611 — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 04:01:01 -0000

It was a bad weekend to go away for a bachelor party, never a bad event but bad timing for sure. Many noteworthy news stories in Buffland: WR Andre Simmons is still awaiting the final clearance from who knows who but Dan Hawkins says their should be no problems what so ever, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner has decided to take a leave of absence to fulfill his LDS mission, and WR Markques Simas has been suspended for two games in what has been dubbed as an off the field incident that happened "a long time ago." You have to wonder if Simas will ever get it; I sure hope he does and one day it will click that he has a great opportunity to be a special player. I do find it ironic that West Virginia just allowed their number one receiver, Jock Sanders back on the team after his DUI arrest earlier this offseason. The Buffs received clearance from the newest member of the 2009 recruiting class, WR Will Jefferson, who seems to be impressing early on.

That was the big news of the weekend. Then their was the talk about Cody Hawkins increased build and Darrell Scott's weight as Hawkins added some more definition to his biceps and well, Darrell Scott is now 220 pounds after convincing us 205 pounds was his ideal playing weight. Again, who knows? From all accounts, Scott's 220 is not like last year's weight, consisting of all muscle. As long as he is running through guys this season and is healthy, no one will care.

Let the college football season begin and begin like a freight train it has. Here is the most links you will ever see posted in one serving. Enjoy as their is some good stuff. I am trying to get to practice this week as I know you are craving them.

Brooks: Kiesau Embraces New Role - CUBuffs.com

What does Kiesau, who replaces Mark Helfrich, have in mind to fix all the above? For starters, he, head man/receivers coach Dan Hawkins and the other offensive coaches have committed to what Kiesau calls "a downhill, blue-collar run game and an extensive passing game. "It'll be very different from last season . . . we're not going to do the no-huddle spread stuff. If I had to categorize and give it a name, it would be more of a pro-style, NFL offense. "We're going to get the ball downfield, let our playmakers get vertical. If you just run the ball along the box, they're going to stop you. We're going to play action and be able to throw it, we'll be extremely multiple. "It could change from week to week - one week we could be in a lot of two-back, the next week be empty (no backs). But we want to keep a lot of the same concepts, a lot of the same rhythm of the offense. "I don't know if 'identity' is the right word, but people will be able to see it."

Buffs tailback Scott bulks up for sophomore season - Boulder Daily Camera

Scott trimmed down to 200 pounds for spring ball and has since put on weight again. He started camp Friday at approximately 220 pounds. He hopes to play this season between 210 and 215 pounds. He believes a little extra weight will help achieve his goals. Hawkins announced Friday that redshirt freshman offensive lineman Max Tuioti-Mariner will take two years away from the program to complete his Mormon mission. He will return to the program in 2011. "I feel like I'm more experienced," Scott said. "I like this weight I have on and I'm going to use it to my advantage. "After our summer lifting, I put on a little extra muscle and I like it. I can run people over and it will help me with my durability."

Scout.com: 2009 Big 12 Schedules & Picks
CollegeFootballNews.com thinks the Buffs will be 7 - 5, beating Nebraska in the finale to get to win #7.

Scout.com: 2009 Big 12 Preview - Unit Rankings
College Football News was very friendly to the Colorado Buffaloes in their Big 12 unit rankings in my opinion going into the 2009 season. Nebraska was ranked behind the Buffs in both offense and quarterback rankings. The Buffs also were noted with the best secondary, 3rd best running backs and a 4th ranked defense.

Scout.com: 2009 CFN Top 30 Big 12 Players
CFN ranks the top 30 players in the Big 12 with Darrell Scott making an appearance as #17 on their list. Not a bad ranking at all.

Guard Max Tuioti-Mariner is leaving the program to serve an LDS mission - Longmont Times

Guard Max Tuioti-Mariner is leaving the program to serve an LDS mission, CU coach Dan Hawkins said Friday. Andre Simmons was on Colorado’s practice field wearing jersey No. 1 Friday night when the Buffs opened August camp. But he was not participating. Simmons, the wide receiver from Independence Community College whom CU signed last February, said his former school "closed early" Friday and did not send his transcripts to CU. CU reported Thursday night that Simmons has been accepted to the university as long as his community college transcript confirms what the football program has been told about it. The school will continue to wait for it over the weekend. Simmons said he expects Independence Community College to fax the transcript to CU on Monday. Once CU has it, he expects to be able to practice with the team.

Markques Simas Suspended - Longmont Times

Saturday’s news about Markques Simas’ suspension for the first two games of 2009 has left some Colorado Buffaloes frustrated. Simas, for one. "It’s a little frustrating, but I’m the only person you can blame for it," Simas said. "So I’m just going to keep preparing and work hard. "When it comes time for Wyoming, I’ll just be prepared and mentally ready." Simas redshirted in 2007 as a true freshman after he missed most of the summer and arrived in need of conditioning. He was academically ineligible in 2008. Simas will miss CU’s season opener against Colorado State on Sept. 6, then its first road game five days later at Toledo. Wyoming visits Folsom Field on Sept. 19. CU announced that Simas violated team rules to earn the suspension. Said Simas: "It’s just an issue me and (coach Dan Hawkins) have. It happened a while ago, but it’s overlapped into the next season." Senior linebacker Bryan Stengel, senior tight end Devin Shanahan and sophomore safety Travis Sandersfeld have been awarded scholarships.

Paige: A look at Buffs' H&H QB battle - The Denver Post
Woody Paige sits down with Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen for an interview that has some great quotes from the two buddies/competing quarterbacks.

Many, many more links after the jump...

Buffs DE Kasa not looking back - Boulder Daily Camera

"Once I made the decision that this was right for me, I haven't thought about it at all since," Kasa said after his first official collegiate practice. "I love it up here." Had Kasa gone to Florida, the preseason No. 1 in the USA Today Coaches poll, he would have almost certainly redshirted and perhaps been asked to play offensive line. At CU, there is a good chance Kasa will be in the rotation at defensive end this season. Over the summer he added 20 pounds to his 6-7 frame while working out with the rest of the Buffs. "He impacted the team in the offseason just by his ability," Bandison said. "He came in and he was able to compete right away in the conditioning stuff. He was running with Nate Solder, who makes every lineman look bad because he's so talented. Solder always wins all of the drills, he's always the fastest and the most athletic. And now Nick's competing with him. I think that helps them both.

Brooks: Buffs A Closer Bunch - CUBuffs.com

Returning Colorado players who began fall camp Thursday night say something was different about this opening, something present that might not have been there in recent camps. "Before, there were some really loving guys like Brad Jones (graduated outside linebacker), but there also were some other guys who just . . . weren't," said defensive end Conrad Obi, a sophomore scheduled to battle classmate Lagrone Shields for a starting spot at right defensive end. Continued Obi: "Now, everybody just loves everybody; there's not much hazing going on . . . everybody's respectful. There's no more fighting, things like that. We've got our minds on one thing and that's it."

The Buffzone Blog - A few minutes with RB Brian Lockridge

Optimistic Buffs open camp : Top Stories : Boulder Daily Camera

From Cody Hawkins' biceps to Darrell Scott's powerful runs to Nick Kasa's un-freshman-like physique, it's clear that this group made a commitment to the strength and conditioning program over the summer after injuries made life miserable for the Buffs last season.

Four Big 12 teams make USA Today coaches' poll - Big 12 - ESPN
Colorado received two votes in the coaches poll, putting the 53rd overall in the rankings

Coach Hawk Press Conference Transcription - CUBuffs.com

Buffs Wrap Up Third Day Of Practice - CUBuffs.comThe CUfootball team was back on the practice field on Sunday afternoon, as they continue to work their way through fall camp.

The Longmont Times-Call - Expectations remain high for CU running back Scott

Buffs Wrap Up Media Day After Second Fall Practice - CUBuffs.com
The University of Colorado football team wrapped up the second official practice of 2009 fall camp on the practice fields and then took part in the annual fall sports media day Saturday at the Dal Ward Athletic Center.

Scout.com: 2009 CFN Big 12 Preview

Coach On The Hot Seat Dan Hawkins, Colorado - Insiders suggest that there's no thought whatsoever of Hawkins not being around in 2010 unless the Buffs go into the tank this year, but there needs to be a major positive step forward to show the fan base that there's hope for a return to glory. The Gary Barnett era might have been marred by scandal and embarrassment, but the Buffs were in the Big 12 title mix every year. The program hasn't been close under Hawkins, but to be fair, he had to rebuild. Now there needs to be a payoff.

Young CU defense learning ropes - The Denver Post

Kiesau's plan: Stick to it - Boulder Daily Camera

Purify enjoys purity of semipro football - Colorado Springs Gazette

Bobby Purify doesn’t miss the days of scoring touchdowns for the University of Colorado. He’s OK with not hearing his name on ESPN and not reading his name in the newspaper. "It’s in my past," said Purify who works in real estate as a contractor for Colorado Springs Utilities. "I’ve lived my dream. I’ve done what I’ve wanted to do in my life. I have a blessed life in my eyes. My two girls (ages 4 and 2) are healthy, and I’m still able to play the sport I grew up playing." From 2000 to 2004, Purify trotted out to games in a black and gold uniform for the Buffaloes. Now, he takes the field donning red and black for the Colorado Springs Flames, a semipro team in the Colorado Football Conference.

The Quad Countdown: No. 26 West Virginia - The Quad Blog - NYTimes.com
Life after Pat White begins with Jarrett Brown under center, though the Mountaineers will rely heavily upon running back Noel Devine. Can West Virginia upend Cincinnati and return to the top of the Big East?

West Virginia Mountaineers receiver Jock Sanders reinstated 6 months after DUI arrest - ESPN
West Virginia has reinstated leading receiver Jock Sanders six months after a drunken-driving arrest in Morgantown.

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Yesterday we took at look at what really was an impressively bad offense that Colorado put on the field in 2008. That the Buffs came within a game of bowl eligibility must speak volumes of their defense, right?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 110.1 (#33)
Success Rate+: 105.3 (#45)
PPP+: 116.1 (#34)

Standard Downs S&P+: 108.6 (#36)
Passing Downs S&P+: 124.0 (#15)

Redzone S&P+: 109.5 (#37)

Q1 S&P+: 107.0 (#43)
Q2 S&P+: 122.7 (#20)
Q3 S&P+: 98.4 (#62)
Q4 S&P+: 123.1 (#15)

1st Down S&P+: 108.7 (#37)
2nd Down S&P+: 102.3 (#52)
3rd Down S&P+: 135.5 (#8)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 103.1 (#56)
Rushing SR+: 102.6 (#53)
Rushing PPP+: 103.8 (#55)

Standard Downs: 101.7 (#58)
Passing Downs: 104.4 (#57)

Redzone: 96.2 (#76)

Line Yards+: 98.3 (#64)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.3 (#18)
Passing SR+: 107.1 (#34)
Passing PPP+: 125.0 (#18)

Standard Downs: 116.0 (#14)
Passing Downs: 129.9 (#15)

Redzone: 129.8 (#13)

Adj. Sack Rate: 5.9% (#61)

While the offense was almost universally bad in every category, the defense was a lot more interesting to analyze--quite a few ups and downs.

They were decent on Standard Downs and excellent on Passing Downs. When I see a team better on Passing Downs, I assume that their LB corps must be pretty good at blitzing, but that's a bit of a generalization.
This is reflected in the per-down numbers as well--they were mediocre on 2nd downs and great on 3rd downs.
Their best quarter: Q4. Makes sense if you think about it. A) They lost four games by 16 points or more, and in "non-close" situations, the trailing team usually has the advantage while the leading team is running the ball and killing the clock. B) When they were in close games down the stretch, they usually thrived. As mentioned yesterday, they were 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and while that ignores the Nebraska game--they were leading by one with two minutes left before Nebraska scored a quick 10 points that deceptively boosted the scoring margin--clearly they were still pretty good when the game was close.
While their success rates (efficiency) and PPP (explosiveness) were roughly the same in rushing defense, Colorado did see a decent split between their passing defense success rates (34th) and PPP (18th). That usually suggests relatively loose coverage and good tackling--you can get efficient, short gains against them, but you're not necessarily going to burn them deep a lot.
Neither line play measure was particularly impressive.

Defensive Line

Herrod (#90) is about the only returner who has made any plays whatsoever.

2008 Unit Ranking: #58 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Marquez Herrod (6'2, 265, Jr.)
DT Eugene Goree (6'1, 295, So.)
DT Taj Kaynor (6'5, 265, Sr.)
DE Conrad Obi (6'3, 265, So.)
DT Curtis Cunningham (6'1, 275, So.)
DE Lagrone Shields (6'3, 270, So.)
DT Will Pericak (6'4, 265, RSFr.)
DE Tony Poremba (6'1, 230, So.)

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the list above combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

Linebackers

Smart (#45)

2008 Unit Ranking: #36 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jeff Smart (6'0, 220, Sr.)
Shaun Mohler (6'3, 220, Sr.)
BJ Beatty (6'2, 220, Jr.)
Doug Rippy (6'1, 230, RSFr.)
Michael Sipili (6'1, 240, Jr.)
Jon Major (6'2, 225, RSFr.)
Marcus Burton (6'0, 260, Sr.)

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Secondary

Mighty mite Cha'pelle Brown is a rock-solid corner.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Cha'pelle Brown (5'7, 170, Sr.)
CB Jimmy Smith (6'2, 200, Jr.)
S Anthony Perkins (5'10, 200, So.)
S Patrick Mahnke (6'1, 205, So.)
CB Benjamin Burney (5'11, 190, Sr.)
CB Jalil Brown (6'1, 205, Jr.)
S Travis Sandersfeld (6'0, 205, So.)
S Ray Polk (6'1, 190, RSFr.)

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

Special Teams

Aric Goodman MUST improve in 2009.

2008 Unit Rankings: #80 Net Punting, #56 Punt Returns, #38 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Aric Goodman (5'10, 185, Jr.) - 30-for-31 PAT, 5-for-14 FG
P Matt DiLallo (6'1, 200, Sr.) - 34.0 Net Avg
KR - Rodney Stewart (5'7, 170, So.)
PR - Jason Espinoza (5'8, 175, So.)

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? I could probably manage to go about 2- or 3-for-14*, so he was only about six points better than me as a kicker. He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

* Okay, maybe 1-for-14. Fine, 0-for-14. I'd have kicked every ball directly into the ass of a lineman seven yards ahead of me.

Meanwhile, here's where Josh Smith's loss could possibly hit the hardest. Again, Smith wasn't all-conference material or anything, but while he averaged a decent 13.3 yards per catch (best among CU receivers), he was quite good in the return game, averaging 10.4 yards per punt return (point of reference: Jeremy Maclin averaged 11.0) and 25.5 per kick return (Maclin: 24.0) with 1 TD. Assuming he doesn't get coerced into staying in Boulder, then it looks like the early leaders to replace him are Rodney Stewart at KR and Jason Espinoza at PR. I have nothing valuable about whether they're any good at returning kicks, so instead I'll just point out that they're very little. So there you go.

Summary

As I mentioned in yesterday's intro, I'm trying as hard as I can not to be biased about Colorado. I think they're young enough that they really could be solid in 2010 and maybe 2011, but it's really annoying me that it appears writers are once again jumping the gun too early on them, picking them as a North sleeper for what I think is the fourth straight year. They've got a solid-not-flashy LB corps and potentially very good secondary. They've also got a lot of unproven potential at RB and on the O-line. But that's about it. They have nothing proven at WR or on the D-line, and unfortunately I think Cody Hawkins has proven a bit too much at QB. They would be better served floating under the radar for another year and figuring out what they have, particularly at WR. But instead, people are once again ranking them in the Top 40 and calling them a sleeper, meaning they'll be expected to produce a little earlier than I think they're capable of producing. Not that I'm losing sleep over these preseason picks or anything, but it's not fair to Colorado to expect anything major from them just yet--I've been wrong plenty of times before, but I think they're still a year away.

---

Projections on Friday. And I'm warning you now--as down as I appear to be on CU, the BTBS projections are infinitely more down on them. Shockingly down on them...to the point where I almost want to stick up for them a bit.

Current Colorado Buffaloes' Defensive and Special Teams Roster

irish1611 — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 19:38:30 -0000

Following our offensive roster chart, below is the 2009 Colorado Buffaloes' defensive and special team players. Compared to the offensive piece, this chart has a little more distribution between years of each position as well as depth oming down the 2010 pipeline unlike tight end and fullback on the offensive side of the ball.

Position		SENIORS	JUNIORS	SOPHOMORES	FRESHMEN	INCOMING Fr
DT		Taj Kaynor	Eric Lawson	C Cunningham	Will Pericak	Nate Bonsu
DT		Tyler Sale*	Eric Lawson	Eugene Goree	Will Pericak	Edward Nuckols
Sch	7	1	1	2	1	2
NSch	1	1
DE			M Herrod	Kevin Cooney*	Nick O'Neill*	Nick Kasa
			Joe Silipo*	David Goldberg*		J. Forrest West
				Conrad Obi		Sc Fernandez*
				Tony Poremba*
				Lagrone Shields
Sch	5		1	2		2
NSch	6		1	3	1	1
LB		Marcus Burton	Michael Sipili	Tyler Ahles	Jon Major	Liloa Nobriga
		Shaun Mohler	B.J. Beatty	*Brandon Gouin	Doug Rippy	Derrick Webb
		Jeff Smart		*Zackary Farley	*Guy Sergent	Geoff Sissom*
		*Bryan Stengel		Josh Hartigan
Sch	11	3	2	2	2	2
NSch	5	1		2	1	1
CB		Cha Brown	Jalil Brown	Jon Hawkins	Stephen Hicks	Deji Olatoye
		Ben Burney	Jimmy Smith	*Arthur Jaffee	Paul Vigo	Cody McAninch*
				Anthony Wright
Sch	9	2	2	2	2	1
NSch	2			1		1
S			*Bret Smith	Patrick Mahnke	Vince Ewing	Parker Orms
				*Erik Manarino	Ray Polk
				*Matt Meyer
				Anthony Perkins
				*T Sandersfeld
Sch	5			2	2	1
NSch	4		1	3		0
K			Aric Goodman	Jameson Davis		Z Grossnickle
P		Matt DiLallo
SN		J Drescher	Austin Bisnow
Sch	5	2	1	1		1
NSch	1	0	1
DEFENSIVE AND SPECIAL TEAMS TOTAL
Sch	42	8	7	11	7	9
NSch	19	2	3	9	2	3
Total	61	10	10	20	9	12
TEAM TOTAL
Sch	78	12	14	24	10	18
NSch	37	5	5	13	5	9
Total	115	17	19	37	15	27
*italics - transfer / - non-scholarship player**

The linebacking and cornerback spots are the class of the defense. The Buffs will have solid depth for many years at linebacker, assuming Jon Major recovers from his ACL injury and Doug Rippy continues to develop. I would expect the Buffs to take a couple more 'backers in the 2010 class to keep the continuity going. The linebacking depth is exactly what you want as a coach when you look at your group of players; a great mix of experience as well as young talent who are pushing the veterans. As for cornerback, the next two years look very solid as long as Jimmy Smith doesn't jump for the NFL early. I think he is still in need of all four years of college but if he has the year that I expect him to have, he may be tempted by the NFL scouts who would be drooling over a sub 4.5, 6'3" physical cornerback. After the next two years, the Buffs will need to get help at corner as you will be looking at all new starters after 2010 with not much known about the players behind the juniors and seniors.

The rest of the defensive positions, youth prevails. There are only three scholarship upperclassmen at defensive line and safety. The Buffs are young at safety with potential starters Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins both sophomores but they gained valuable experience as freshmen. Defensive line continues to be the main question mark on the defense mostly because we don't know what we are going to get from the underclassmen, who will be forced to play this year. Guys like Eugene Goree, Conrad Obi, Lagrone Shields, Curtis Cunningham, Nick Kasa, Edward Nuckols, Nate Bonsu, Will Pericak, Lagrone Sheilds, etc. haven't showed us a lot because they are all first or second year players. They might be great but the doubt surrouding them is one reasons many Buff fans wonder if the team will turn the corner and get to that 8+ win mark.

On special teams, the Buffs had to take a kicker in the 2009 class in Zach Grossnickle after the dismal performance last year. Grossnickle (both a placekicker and punter) may technically be the only punter on the team after this season with starter Matt DiLallo graduating. Special teams is another part of the equation that most Buff fans forget about but shouldn't in evaluating the possible success next year. You name it, it went wrong in 2008 so improved play is a must.

Assessing Our Team For the Opponent

irish1611 — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 16:38:37 -0000

The guys over at Corn Nation, the Nebraska blog on SBNation, asked us to put together a small synopsis of the Buffs going into spring ball so that they could educate their fan base on what to hear out of camp this year. I thought it would be good to share so you can see what I am looking at going into camp.

Corn Nation: Who's Gone: (What Star Players Are Gone in 2009)

Biggest loss on Offense: Center Daniel Sanders. Right now the Buffs have three or four guys who can probably step in but not like Sanders did. He was a big performer for the Buffs and right now, no one has any experience at the position worth mentioning. Look for Mike Iltis, Blake Behrens or Evan Eastburn to battle for the starting spot this offseason with the favorite being Iltis who is recovering from an ACL injury. Other than that, the Buffs lose no one of any significant value on offense from last year's team. Same goes for next year as Colorado will only lose a starting tight end, a fullback and an offensive guard. This offense will have a lot of time to grow together.

Biggest loss on Defense: CU lost a few significant senior starters from 2008 although many underachieved. On the underachiever side you can put DT George Hypolite, DT Brandon Nicolas, DE Maurice Lucas and S Daniel Dykes. LB Brad Jones and S Ryan Walters will be the hardest players to replace. Jones led the team in sacks last year and was the only player that could get any sort of consistent pressure. The good thing for the Buffs is that linebacker is one position we have recruited well at and have many candidates to replace him. B.J. Beatty will provide the Buffs with Jones-like pass rush skills. Beatty is one of those guys who flies around and makes plays. Also look for redshirt freshman LB Jon Major and LB Doug Rippy to see time and with the Buffs returning All Big 12 players in LB Shaun Mohler and LB Jeff Smart, linebacker should not be a concern. The only concern on defense in my mind, and it is a big one, is defensive line. Even though Hypolite, Nicolas and Lucas underachieved last year, they were the only guys we had and the only guys we saw play with any significant time. This year, we are flying blind and all positions are up for grabs. Hawkins got two big recruits in 5* DE Nick Kasa and 4* DL Edward Nuckols in 2009 but whether they will be ready to go physically is never a guarantee. Cornerback should be solid with plenty of depth and although the Buffs lose both safeties, Walters and Dykes had plenty of injuries last year giving replacements S Anthony Perkins and S Patrick Mahnke time to get a feel for the spots as freshman. Walters was a leader of the defense as well as a pretty hard nosed ball player so that will need to be filled in 2009.

Corn Nation: Who To Watch: (The best guys on your team, and maybe your quarterback if you have a new one)

see more after the jump...

Right now as Buff fans we get really optimistic before the season starts about a lot of players, we always do that! Here are a few:

Offense:

RB Darrell Scott - has dropped all the excess weight he had carried last year as a freshman, down to his high school weight of 205 pounds (was at 225), is said to be healty again, running a 4.4 forty, got mentioned in a recent interview with our strength and conditioning coach saying he was the hardest working player this offseason and really made a point to show everyone that he is ready to break out in 2009. I have no doubt that 2008 will be a distant memory after this season.

RB Rodney Stewart - hard not to have him on this list even though I think Darrell Scott will replace him as the starting back. Although he broke his leg late in the season, he worked hard this offseason and tested out as the strongest player pound for pound on the team. No questioning what he did last season was pretty amazing for a freshman (can't you tell that we had a lot of freshman playing last season...it makes me sick typing this). This running back combo could be special for years to come.

WR Markques Simas - was ineligible last season but is said to have a strong GPA this year. He was a four star commit in 2007 and should be the top play maker on the edge in 2009. It has been reported that no one is even close to his talent level at wide receiver and he just torched the defensive starters last year playing on the scout team.

OT's Ryan Miller and Nate Solder - they will anchor this line, a line that if healthy, has the talent to be a top 3 or 4 squad in the conference. Both of these guys have the build (6'9" 300+) and the athleticism (Solder ran a sub 5.0 forty this offseason) to be pro prospects.

QB Tyler Hansen - because we need a change. The offseason should do wonders for him learning the playbook and gaining confidence controlling the offense. People forget that last year he was strictly the scout team quarterback until about two weeks before the Kansas State game. Basically, he had to learn the Colorado playbook in a few short days. He is taller, has better feet and a better arm than Cody Hawkins. The only thing that we need to see is his ability to grasp the offense and the leadership that goes along with being the starting Q.

WR Josh Smith - was third in the Big 12 last year in all purpose yards and ninth in the nation. Need a more consistent performance from him but if he dedicates himself, he has already shown that he can be explosive and a game changer.

Defense:

LB Shaun Mohler: impressive last year in his first season as a JUCO transfer. Became a starter after the second game and never gave it up. I expect second team All Big 12 or better this year for Mohler. Was honorable mention last year. He plays down hill and is my pick for CU's defensive player of the year.

LB Jeff Smart: Second team All Big 12 linebacker last year. He isn't the most gifted linebacker the Buffs have but he is the most productive. He might get pushed by some of the younger, bigger guys this year but I expect another strong season from him.

CB Jimmy Smith: he will be the first cornerback selected out of the Big 12 in 2010's NFL draft. He has great size (6'3" 200 pounds) and is by far and away the most athletic player on CU's roster. Husker fans should remember Smith after last year's game.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: an All Big 12 player last year. What he lacks in size, he offsets with consistent play. With the return of 2007 starter Ben Burney from injury as well as the emergence of backups Jalil Brown and Anthony Wright, Cha'pelle will have his hands full but I expect him to be the day one starter based on last season.

Corn Nation: Under the Radar players who might make an impact this season:

OL Bryce Givens - a former Nebraska commit, Givens has added 25 pounds this offseason to go along with his great athleticism. He should push for a starting spot if he can stay healthy.

LB's Doug Rippy and Jon Major - part of the big 2008 LB recruiting trio, look for Rippy (who is physically ready to play at the college level) and Jon Major to push for time. Unfortunately, the cream of the crop in 2008, LB Lynn Katoa, is struggling both on and off the field and it wouldn't be a surprise if he never suited up for the Buffs.

DL Conrad Obi - honestly, we have no idea who is going to make up three or even all of our starting defensive line spots. I can't even make an educated guess but Obi is said to have all the physical talent but now it is time for the sophomore to turn it into production. CU is very young on the D-line.

DL Curtis Cunningham - he saw the most action of any player as a backup last year which was pretty amazing considering he was a 260 pound true freshman. If I had to put my money on one player starting next year on the defensive line, it would be him. He showed in limited action that he can make plays.

Five Things About Five Players - Things We Hope to Learn (Part Two)

irish1611 — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 17:35:50 -0000

Part two of our "things we hope to learn" series features five players (see part one here), some not as well known as the other five we featured first but maybe just as important. It calls for people to fill voids, go beyond expectation and just flat out be prepared to compete.

Remember we are fast forwarding to April 25th, 6:00 pm. What do we hope to know about these five players at that time? Let's draw it up:

DL Conrad Obi - with Curtis Cunningham LIMITED this spring, the best chance for the Buffs to sure up the line looked to be a fall practice task. Further, many Buff fans are still holding out hope that incoming freshman Edward Nuckols and Nick Kasa may have an immediate impact but Conrad Obi has really stepped up and filled a vacant spot on the defensive line. At 6'3' 265, Obi has the ability to play both inside and outside and his motor looks have improved from his freshman year. Shields and Goree also showed well but Obi stood out the most of all defensive lineman and if the learning curve continues for young guys like Goree, Shields, Obi, Cunningham and Pericak, Colorado might not have to force incoming freshman Nick Kasa and Edward Nuckols into action, something that should be music to our ears.

WR Josh Smith - similar to the Simas situation, Buff fans were easily frustrated at Smith last year. We saw all the potential in spring and fall ball but rumors of a lack of commitment to the playbook to self prophesized comparisons to Jeremy Maclin to some head scratching decisions just kept Buff fans wondering if Smith would reach his potential and be our version of the Missouri all purpose player. Well, it looks like that frustration the players have had over the past couple of losing seasons really hit home with Smith. Coaches complimented Smith on his new dedication and like his nephew, he has assumed a vocal leadership role on this team. Finally healthy, Coach Kiesau and Helfrich have him inserted in the lineup on every play in the slot, being creative with Smith and getting the ball in his hands to make plays. When I was at practice, I didn't see one end around play called to #1, something that all Buff fans appreciated. What I did see is Simas and Smith working together to finally provide the Buffs a one-two punch in the offense-happy Big 12. Barring any injuries and the continuation of hard work from both Simas and Smith, we may be looking at a top four duo in the conference. Further, KR/PR Jason Espinoza looks to be healthy again, allowing the Buffs to monitor Smith's special teams output as to not affect his offensive production.

OL Bryce Givens - with Max Tuioti-Mariner out this spring and Devin Head & Mike Iltis LIMITED, guys not named Ryan Miller and Nate Solder have a chance to snag one of the three remaining offensive line spots come fall. No players' progress to gain weight has been followed more than Givens, a very talented redshirt freshman who's main task to go along with his athleticism was to gain weight this offseason. Givens succeeded to say the least. He added 25 pounds to get to 275 - 280 but I have heard rumors that he may be up to 290 pounds without having lost too much speed. Not only did he make it through camp without a re-occurrence of a concussion but he pretty much made it impossible for Denver Johnson not to find a place for him whether it means putting him at guard or moving Ryan Miller inside. He has the best feet of all the offensive linemen and now, can physically stand-up to the players on the other side of the ball. Givens provides another reason why Buff fans should be excited about the future of the offensive line.

TE Riar Geer - coming off a junior season where nothing seemed to go right for Geer both on and off-the-field, we saw a more effectively utilized tight end this spring. 2009 should be different for both Geer and Ryan Deehan as no position will get opened up more from what is going on around them than tight end. Injuries, the inability of the wide receivers to stretch the field, the spread offense and youthful core of players caused the tight end to be rendered useless in 2008. Last year, Geer had his least productive season as a collegiate player, only grabbing thirteen passes. With a new pro-style offense, the coaching staff made a point to bring back the tight end in both the passing game and as an effective second level blocker, something that Geer can handle well with his big frame. Other than the University of Miami, Colorado has had one of the more successful programs in turning out big time pro prospects at the tight end position. This year with a trio of impressive candidates in Geer, Deehan and Ryan Wallace, I would be shocked if we see the position go ignored again. If the Buffs are hitting the tight end like they showed in spring ball, this offense just became more dynamic.

K Aric Goodman - public enemy number one last year showed that he can respond. Goodman had a very impressive spring, gaining his confidence back with a more effective two step approach to place kicking. Although practice was not Goodman's problem in '08, he did nothing this spring that would hint to the coaches that he lost his confidence or had a hangover. Hawkins and Riddle made a point to make Goodman's life miserable with constant taunting and hints of 2008's misfortunes. Every day, the Buffs conditioning program was increased in severity based on the performance of Goodman, bringing pressure from both coach and player. Buff fans should be rooting for a turnaround from Goodman. Something tells me we don't want a freshman kicker trying to win the game at West Virginia. Goodman continued to show he had a strong leg and so far accuracy doesn't seem to be a problem.

2009 - 2010 Buff Defense Class Breakdown

irish1611 — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 15:37:15 -0000

Here is the defensive class breakdown for the 2009 season as we stand today. Here is the offensive breakdown I posted last week. See analysis of the defensive squads after the jump...

2009 - 2010 Buff Defense Class Breakdown
2009 - 2010 Buff Defense Class Breakdown
Pos.	Senior	Junior	Sophomore	Freshman	Incoming
DT	Taj Kaynor	Eric Lawson	C Cunningham	Will Pericak	Nate Bonsu
DT	Tyler Sale*		Eugene Goree
DE		M Herrod	Lagrone Shields		Nosa Eguae
			Conrad Obi
			Tony Poremba*
			Kevin Cooney*
LB	Marcus Burton	BJ Beatty	Tyler Ahles	Lynn Katoa	None
	Shaun Mohler	Micheal Sipili	Josh Hartigen	Jon Major
	Jeff Smart	D Goldberg*	Brandon Gouin*	Doug Rippy
	Bryan Stengel*			G Sergent*
CB	C Brown	Jimmy Smith	Anthony Wright		Deji Olatoye
	Ben Burney	Jalil Brown	J Hawkins
			Lamont Smith
S		Bret Smith*	Patrick Mahnke	S Hicks	Parker Orms
			A Perkins	Vince Ewing
			T Sandersfield*	Paul Vigo***
			Matt Meyer*
P	Matt DiLallo
K		Aric Goodman	Jameson Davis
SP	J Drescher	A Bisnow*
* walk on / potential medical redshirt / * grey shirt 2008 class
Total	10	10	17	8	5
%	20.0%	20.0%	34.0%	16.0%	10.0%
Scholarship	8	7	12	7	5
Walk On	2	3	5	1	0

As you can see again, the sophomore class is, once again, extremely large compared to the other classes. Combining the offensive chart's 18 sophomore players, 35 of the total 100 players are in year number 2. If you add in incoming freshman, 63 of the total players are underclassmen. No excuses, right?

Just don't look at the defensive line spots. The Buffs seem to be in a good position on the offensive line, especially with the two new additions in the 2009 class. If they could add one more offensive lineman for depth, I feel good about that unit for the next 2 - 3 years. It is just the opposite for the defensive line. They all might be players but the fact that we haven't seen any substantial results from these guys scares me to death. Their are clearly depth issues as well. The fact that the front four were dead tired in the Nebraska game and the coaching staff refused to substitute any of these guys for a substantial period would conclude that this year could be a struggle upfront. Right now, the Buffs don't seem to be in on a ton of DL and DE which is extremely troubling. If the Buffs could get 2 - 3 JUCO players to fill this void, it would go a long way to solidifying the defense.

For as much as the defensive front might be a worry, the linebacker and corner positions must make all CU fans smile. LB coach Brian Cabral has a ton of talent to work with at the linebacker spot. The X factor of this whole unit will be Katoa and Major. If Katoa can right the ship and Major can fully recover from the ACL injury, this unit could be the best in the Big 12. If the defensive line situation does not improve, look for guys like B.J. Beatty, Marcus Burton and Michael Sipili to be a pseudo-defensive end/rush end all year. In the defensive backfield, the Buffs are young at safety but Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke showed that they have some talent and stepped in pretty well as freshman last year. The Buffs will also get 2008 grey shirt S Paul Vigo in this year as well as S Steven Hicks and S Vince Ewing to add depth. You might also seem some slotted at corner back make the move back to safety (Jalil Brown would be a likey candidate to get more playmakers on the field). CU is also in on a few other safeties in the 2009 recruiting class that would provide much needed depth on both defense and special teams.

Now to the corners. This could rival the linebacker spot for the best unit on the team. Cha'pelle Brown and Ben Burney (2007 starter who was injured last year) return as well as juniors Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith. Smith really stepped up last year and played a ton down the stretch. He looks to be piecing together the consistency that goes with playing corner as he has all of the physical attributes that you crave in a corner. The Buffs will play some good receivers next year and I expect Smith to be on all of them. If we could only generate a pass rush!

I am not going to talk about punters and kickers because we all know we need new one(s).

In summation, we can see the depth starting the build in certain spots but their are still some major concerns at a few positions: defensive line, wide receiver (could be fixed if Josh Smith progresses, Andre Simmons qualifies and Diante Jackson becomes a Buff) and can the Buffs win with their current situation at quarterback?

SB Nation - Conrad Obi

The North in 2010

Missouri

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Nebraska

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Wednesday Buff Bites - Just Can't Seem to Catch A Break

Catch Up Buff Bites - Clearance Issues, Suspensions, Missions...We Got It All At CU

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

Current Colorado Buffaloes' Defensive and Special Teams Roster

Assessing Our Team For the Opponent

Five Things About Five Players - Things We Hope to Learn (Part Two)

Top Spring Ball Questions: Should We Expect Anything From the Defensive Line?

2009 - 2010 Buff Defense Class Breakdown

2009 - 2010 Buff Defense Class Breakdown

DT

DE

LB

CB

S

P

SP