SB Nation - Austen Arnaud

BHGPODCAST EPISODE 14: In Which We Organize Things Into A List Without Being Asked To Do So

Oops Pow Surprise — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 06:22:36 -0000

Making a list, checking it twice, ruining Santa for you.

Slightly different approach to the podcast this week. First of all, of course, it's early; there's apparently a holiday coming up or something. Second, instead of having a guest, it was just Hawkeye State and me doing what we do best: enjoying each other's company ~~sexually~~. We shared a few laughs, maybe a couple of tears, and most of all, learned a little bit about ourselves. It was good.

Okay, actually, we just decided to commemorate the end of the regular season by ranking the Iowa games on a hazy, shifting mix of factors like performance, excitement, and consequence. After a season like that, how can we not reminisce?

Listen below or on iTunes.

BHGPodcast 14

Additionally, a full breakdown of the rankings from me, HS, Stoops Pow Surprise, and Ross Wow Burprise are after the break.

OPS

12. jNWU - Hell on Earth. None more need be said, lest we cry ourselves to sleep tonight. Again.
11. Arkansas State - Almost as excruciating as the #12 game, but through sheer boredom. Once that Epic Greenwood touchdown got called back and Iowa failed to convert with points, we knew it was going to be a long second half. Re-ignited the "Iowa doesn't deserve to be undefeated mantra."
10. UNI - An exciting game and a ludicrous finish. This was Iowa at its weakest--offensive linemen missing all over the place, Paki O'Meara as a starting tailback, and Greg Castillo getting scorched on the reg. The ending was almost too surreal to be exciting; it was the top play of the week, but it was so improbable that people just can't relate to it; after all, if a team's good enough to block two field goals in a row, why are they only leading a I-AA school by a point late in the 4th? Also, UNI's inability to make the I-AA playoffs was just a killer.
9. Minnesota - The quintessential ugly Iowa game, marred by missing offensive stars and featuring yet another stout performance by both defenses. Got Iowa to 10 wins. But unlike lots of games ahead of it, there was absolutely no excitement in this game, and all it did for clarification was to remind us that Ricky Stanzi's probably still got the starter spot on lock for the foreseeable future.
8. Ohio State - The only loss other than #12, but instead of being at #11 on account of god damn it Iowa lost, there's an argument to be made for putting it higher. Super-exciting, even though it left Iowa fans with a sour taste in their mouths for how the last two Iowa possessions went down. Very, very down. Still, it helped to legitimize the team, considering they were expected to get facefucked by the Buckeyes.
7. Indiana - What a weird game. Fun, and one of the few times we got to see the Iowa offense move the ball at will. We'd put it higher, but IU missed out on a bowl and we had to hear Iowa catch even more crap--this time for that tragic blown call in the end zone on the IU touchdown. We discuss precisely why that criticism sucks hard in the podcast, but fa real--it sucks. Still, fun game.
6. Michigan - The lustre wore off this game as the season went on--Michigan, you'll recall, wouldn't beat another I-A team all season long--but this game was fun, it was on national television, it had plenty of big plays, and Iowa was never really in danger of losing, despite the score. This is where we started to see "Ricky Stanzi As Big-Play QB" start to manifest itself.
5. Iowa State - Holy smokes, what a defensive performance. At the time, people chalked it up to a horrific mental breakdown of Austen Arnaud, but it sure seems now that his struggles weren't that much of a fluke. It was an extremely satisfying win in a town where those are awfully hard to come by for Ferentz and Iowa, and but for the fact that the game was D-U-N done in the middle of the third quarter, this might have even ranked higher.
4. Wisconsin - The fourth game in six where Iowa abused an opposing quarterback to the point that the game was within 10 points at the start of the 4th and still over for all intents and purposes. Wisconsin fans may throw the bullshit flag on account of Garrett Graham missing the second half with a concussion and John Clay's miserable post-injury performance (all while defying everything we know about medicine and science by being able to walk after that play).
3. Arizona - A game that looked better as the season went on, but what a fascinating contest: the advantage swung back and forth about five times before the Iowa defense clamped its jaws down on Matt Scott and the Arizona offense. We got to meet Adam Robinson as a legitimate tailback, and we got to see Adrian Clayborn run down a speed tailback in full stride from behind. In a straight line. Ordinarily, we'd chalk that up as Clayborn's play of the season. That designation didn't last long.
2. Michigan State - You could even say number one for this game, and we wouldn't put up a huge fight. It was, whether the SEC fans want to admit it, an SEC game: a defensive slugfest with casualties strewn about the field for 50 minutes, then a mad dash to the finish line. As fourth quarters go, there's few as entertaining in the Ferentz era, and the last drive made believers of us all, if only for a week or two. If anything's to pull it down, it's the consequence of losing three starters for multiple games, a fact that would eventually catch up to Iowa. Still, wow, what a game.
1. Penn State - But there could be only one, and it had to be the game that put Iowa squarely in the national attention. Even after PSU's one big play to open the game, the Nittany Lions were up by 5 going into the fourth quarter, but still fully dreading how the rest of the game played out. Then Adrian Clayborn happened, the lead happened, and the Daryll Clark Implosion happened. This game was the catalyst for all sorts of themes for the season, it was emblematic of everything we liked and hated about this team--right down to the nervousness and second-guessing of Ferentz as he lined up for a field goal with an 8-point lead and under 20 seconds on the clock--and it was as euphoric as we'd been after a win since, well, the last time we played Penn State.

HS

12. jNWU -- Ugh. Might actually deserve higher billing because of the Stanzi injury, but it's just Northwestern, right?

11. A-State -- Cupcake where the final score looked much worse than it really was. This really wasn't in doubt until the last 2 minutes.

10. Minnesota -- A game so ugly, it should be taken out back and shot. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), by the time it got here, nobody more than 50 miles from Iowa City cared.

9. Michigan -- At the time (before UM turned into MSU and went all death-spiraly), an important test. Now, an embarrassingly close game in prime time.

8. Northern Iowa -- Let's admit the obvious: It was the second-most exciting game Iowa played this year. Also, the bizarre two-FG-block ending made it into the MSM consciousness (it was the Sportscenter #1 play of the day on the opening weekend of the season) and set the stage for the "But Iowa needed two blocked field goals to beat Northern Iowa" meme that followed. Don't underestimate that effect on the current polls and, in turn, the BCS standings.

7. Indiana -- Because Iowa had entered the national consciousness by this point (it was the highest-rated 11:00 kickoff on ESPN all year), and because the officiating was so incredibly horrible and effectively kept Iowa in the game, and because the media is stupid, Indiana replaced UNI as the reason why Iowa had to be stopped. Terry Bradshaw, of all people, put a dagger in this team the day after this game, based solely on the fact that the refs fucked up a clear touchdown that would have allowed Indiana to lose by 11 instead of 18. Rage followed.

6. Iowa State -- They're probably going to a bowl, but they're still Iowa State, and beatdowns are expected. Nevertheless, it was a cathartic curbstomping of a rival on the road, it set off the Tyler Motherfuckin' Sash movement, and it was the only time all year when Iowa looked like a worldbeater against a clearly inferior opponent.

5. Arizona -- Looks better now, but at the time Arizona was a middling Pac-10 opponent with a terrible quarterback and a halfback with good numbers against Northern Arizona and Central Michigan. Set the stage for the Penn State game, though; without a win, we're probably not in prime time when Clayborn goes wild on Darryl Clark.

4. Ohio State -- OK, yes, it was a loss. But at the time, with the Northwestern game finishing the undefeated season and knocking out Stanzi, Iowa was staring in the face of a season-crushing blowout. To walk into the Shoe with a first-time starter at quarterback, a true freshman at halfback, and a MASH unit on the line, and to then take Ohio State to overtime on national television after being behind by 14, was practically inconceivable. It proved more about this team than half of this season's wins. Also, it was an incredible, epic game.

3. Wisconsin -- Ran.

2. Michigan State -- out of.

1. Penn State -- Time.

[Ed. note--He talked about these games at great length in the podcast. Ha ha ha, I just said great length.]

StoopsMyAss

12. Arkansas State – weird and I try to act as though it did not happen.
11. Wisconsin – the most typical of Iowa’s wins.
10. Minnesota – a win that was expected but not this way.
9. Ohio State – a loss that was expected but not this way.
8. Michigan – national TV and we overcame. Kept the ball rolling.
7. Arizona – introduced the defense to America, and Iowa for that matter.
6. jNWU – end of NC run. Unexpected and sad.
5. Iowa State – needed this one for the psyche, and got it in spades.
4. Michigan State – sensational. Probably deserves to be rated more highly but the season is filled with crucial moments.
3. Indiana – most improbable game I have ever seen Iowa play.
2. Penn State – confirmed the potential of this team. Winning in front of 100K+ who were blood thirsty for revenge. Sweet.
1. UNI – the whole season might have turned on one play. Uh, sorry, two plays.

RossWB

12. jNWU -- From ecstasy to agony in about 15 minutes. This went from looking like yet another cathartic romp over a hated rival (see below) to a season-deflating loss. Sadly, Stanzi getting sandwiched between two purple assholes will be one of the lingering and defining moments of the season for me, if only because it will prompt so much "what if..." daydreaming.

11. Arkansas State -- The game that firmly cemented the 2009 Iowa Hawkeyes as a team that was helpless to do anything but play to the level of their competition. Great when playing Penn State or Ohio State... near-disastrous when playing Arkansas fucking State. The stubborn insistence on trying to develop a running game was probably the biggest problem here -- Stanzi could have (and should have) chucked it deep on the hapless Red Wolf secondary all day.

10. UNI -- A win that actually seems worse now than it did twelve weeks ago, now that the the myth of UNI being an unstoppable I-AA powerhouse has been fatally punctured by now. The two blocked field goals will be an unforgettable memory, but we're better off pretending that it happened against someone else, because it should never have happened against a team like UNI. Sure, there are plenty of excuses to toss out -- Iowa was trying to find a running back while juggling a slew of missing pieces on offense (and a few on defense) and UNI was super-motivated to try and knock off the big-time program in the state -- but at the end of the day they're all lame rationalizations for the fact that we played like shit against an inferior opponent... and managed to get away with it. In hindsight, it was an unsettling but eerily accurate harbinger of the season to come. And, hey, those blocked field goals... good luck ever seeing that again in your lifetime.

9. Minnesota -- It pains me to bag on a game that featured a stellar performance by the defense (shutting out a hated rival and keeping the best damn rivalry trophy in sports = WIN), but let's also not forget that Minnesota's offense has, for the most part, been as lethal as a carton of yogurt this season. They had no offensive identity, no even mildly consistent offensive playmakers with Decker injured, and a quarterback that badly regressed. They stunk and we were far from the only defense to make them look foolish. And that doesn't even address the issue of the offense, which was only slightly less rancid than the Gopher attack. So through five full halves of work,Vandenberg has had three epic stinkbombs and two quite good halves. That the two quite good halves came on the road, in Columbus, against Ohio State, in some of the most pressure-packed stakes imaginable is so improbable that I would chalk it up as sheer delusion if I hadn't witnessed it (and countless other "WTF that cannot possibly be real" moments this season). Suffice to say, we should probably hold off on printing up the "VANDENBERG IS THE MANDENBERG" t-shirts for the time being -- unless we plan to put a picture of Two-Face on there as well. (Hey, go big or go home in the world of intellectual property infringement.)

8. Michigan -- Like the UNI win, a close win that became more embarrassing as the season progressed and we got a better idea of how good (or, um, not good) Michigan truly was. Their two-point margin of defeat in this game represented their smallest margin of defeat in any of their Big Ten losses this season, which is faintly humiliating. The Iowa defense also gave up 28 points (well, technically just 21, but just roll wit hit), the most it's given up in the last two-plus years. The two things that wound up damaging Iowa's season the most (aside from injuries) -- a wildly incosnistent offense and an inability to really clamp down on a top runnig game -- both reared their ugly heads here.

7. Indiana --- For entertainment value, this game was hard to beat. Between Sash's rigoddamndiculous pinball pick-six to Stanzi's apocalyptic third quarter and jaw-dropping fourth quarter, this was perhaps the craziest and most improbable Iowa win in Kinnick since the 2002 win over Purude. Big, big plays were the order of the day and Iowa delivered. Stanzi delivered maybe the worst and best quarter I've ever seen from an Iowa quarterback -- in one half, no less.

6. Arizona -- The only game all season I was unable to watch live, which might be one reason I find it difficult to have strong feelings about it. It was a solid, workmanlike performance, which is notable only because there were so few performances like that by Iowa this season. It would be nice to say that this was a win that got much better as the season progressed and the Wildcats kept winning, but that rings a little hollow when the quarterback that led them to so much success was mainly a bystander during the Iowa game.

5. Wisconsin -- One of the more impressive in-game turnarounds of the season. From 10-0 down, getting mauled on the ground by the Badger running game, to running off the last 20 points of the game and stifling the Badger rushing attack (thanks in part to a cringe-worthy sandwich tackle job on John Clay). This was also perhaps the cleanest game Stanzi played all year -- no turnovers and some beautiful, accurate passes to Tony Moeaki and DJK to score touchdowns/keep drives running.

4. Iowa State -- Deeply satisfying and significant for a few reasons: in hindsight, it was a clear indicator of this team's ability to significantly raise its level of play on the road, and was also a win that gained a bit more cache in retrospect when it became clear that this wasn't the usual putrid Iowa State outfit, but a halfway decent team. Plus, on a personal level, not only was it a win in Ames, the site of considerable misery and angst in 2005 and 2007, but it was a Fry Era-level beatdown. And it gave birth to the legend of Tyler "Motherfucking" Sash.

3. Ohio State -- The best loss by an Iowa team since, um... a really long time. I was going to say Texas in 2006, but in terms of proving legitimacy and boosting national respect this loss did far more on those counts. Aside from the Pryor meltdown in Purdue this year, no one played them as tight as Iowa did, and doing it in Columbus (a house of horrors for Iowa for at least two decades), and with a freshman backfield (including a quarterback making his first start)... absolutely remarkable. And the fourth quarter of this game was stupid exciting. That said, this will always be a deeply bittersweet game -- to be so close to the Rose Bowl and then to have it end the way it did... sigh. Intellectually, I can understand and support Ferentz's end of game decision, but I'll never be able to totally erase the "what if" argument. Coming so close to the Rose Bowl and coming up short is always going to lead to a strange concoction of pride, pain, and second-guessing.

2. Penn State -- Maybe Penn State wasn't as great as their ranking before this game suggested... but still. A win over a top-five team, at night, in the rain, in front of a revenge-crazed "Whiteout" crowd is still pretty damn satisfying. The defense was otherworldly after the first few Penn State drives and the way they caused Daryl Clark to meltdown in the second half was extraordinary. And Clayborn's punt block touchdown will deservedly take its place in the annals great Hawkeye plays. This game confirmed preseason hopes that this might actually wind up being a special season.

1. Michigan State -- I'm probably a bit based since I was here live, but even watching this later on TV, I thought this was a pretty amazing game. Some people may want to diminish it since Sparty wound up pulling a "same ol' Sparty" routine down the stretch and going 6-6, but I think a more charitable interpretation would be that they put a ton into this game and never fully recovered from what happened. Being there live, I had no doubt that the players and fans were absolutely amped to the gills for this game and the players certainly played like it - especially on defense, where they were flying around like tackle-crazed lunatics. This game may have done more to damage Iowa's Big Ten/national title aspirations than the Northwestern game thanks to the body count it left in its wake. Losing two of the most consistently effective pieces of our offense (Robinson and Richardson), our best punt returner by far (Sandeman), and the quarterback of the defense (Greenwood) was a hugely painful blow. That said, this game was something else, full of brutally hard hits (on both sides), a pair of ridiculous goalline stands inside the 2-yard line, and a final three minutes or so that was completely batshit insane, what with a fucking hook-and-ladder and the immortal Stanzi-to-McNutt play.

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:00:14 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Be sure to check out the Healthy Blaine vs Gimpy Blaine comparison after the jump.

	Iowa St. (24)	Mizzou (34)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	44.1%	52.5%
Leverage %	69.1%	82.5%

TOTAL
EqPts	20.7	31.7
Close Success Rate	48.5%	57.5%
Close PPP	0.30	0.40
Close S&P	0.790	0.971

RUSHING
EqPts	6.6	13.2
Close Success Rate	50.0%	56.3%
Close PPP	0.28	0.28
Close S&P	0.776	0.838
Line Yards/carry	3.14	3.07

PASSING
EqPts	14.1	18.4
Close Success Rate	47.7%	59.4%
Close PPP	0.32	0.58
Close S&P	0.797	1.170
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 15.8%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	55.3%	60.6%
PPP	0.29	0.46
S&P	0.842	1.064

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	33.3%	42.9%
PPP	0.34	0.11
S&P	0.673	0.534

TURNOVERS
Number	2	1
Turnover Pts	6.7	3.6
Turnover Pts Margin	-3.1	+3.1

Q1 S&P	1.002	0.924
Q2 S&P	0.887	0.682
Q3 S&P	0.725	1.515
Q4 S&P	0.348	0.819

1st Down S&P	0.782	1.262
2nd Down S&P	1.042	0.810
3rd Down S&P	0.294	0.565

Projected Pt. Margin	-14.1	+14.1
Actual Pt. Margin	-10	+10

Quick reactions...

Obviously very nice offensive output for Mizzou, though with an 82.5% Leverage Rate (which means that 82.5% of Mizzou's offensive plays were run on Standard Downs and only 17.5% on Passing Downs) you'd have almost expected more success. Then again, Mizzou was quite unsuccessful on those Passing Downs, as they have been all year. Which, really, is pretty healthy. Passing Downs success comes with experience, and while Mizzou has shown on Standard Downs that they are plenty talented and athletic, they don't yet have the chops for Passing Downs. It'll come.
That said, Mizzou did have a 42.9% success rate on Passing Downs, which was pretty good; in fact, I'd say that while PPP is probably more important on Standard Downs, success rate is more important on Passing Downs, and Mizzou showed some nice progress in that regard.
Gotta say, ISU's rushing success rate was higher than I expected. It really didn't feel like the Cyclones ever really got going on the ground, as evidenced by Alexander Robinson's 14 carries for 56 yards (4.0 per carry), but they were just efficient enough to keep them moving forward, and they were able to utilize the shorter passes because they had fewer yards to go to move the chains. Of course, ISU's offensive output got worse with every passing quarter, so it only worked for so long.
As demonstrated in last week's preview, Iowa State potentially has the best offensive line in the North division, and Mizzou held up relatively well. ISU did average a strong 3.14 line yards per carry, and Austen Arnaud was never sacked on Standard Downs, but Mizzou's three Passing Downs sacks were drive-killers and potentially made the difference in the game.
I also said in last week's preview that ISU's pass rush was so weak that any sack allowed would be too many. Well...0 is a pretty good number, no? That's two straight weeks where Mizzou faced a weaker pass rush but didn't slip up even once.

Healthy Blaine vs Gimpy Blaine

The difference between Blaine Gabbert's one-legged production and two-legged production is simply staggering at this point.

Healthy Blaine
Stats: 182-for-278 passing, 2,487 yards, 21 TD, 2 INT; 63 carries, 156 yards, 2 TD
Rates: 65.5% completion rate, 8.9 yards per pass, 7.6% TD rate, 0.7% INT rate; 2.5 yards per carry

Injured Blaine:
Stats: 42-for-95 passing, 512 yards, 1 TD, 5 INT; 14 carries, -22 yards, 1 TD
Rates: 44.2% completion rate, 5.4 yards per pass, 1.1% TD rate, 5.3% INT rate; -1.6 yards per carry

Just a simply insane difference, even in the rushing stats.

But there's an obvious disclaimer here: Mizzou faced the Nebraska and Texas defenses while injured, and his stats wouldn't have been as good in those games even if healthy. So the question for today is, what would he have produced against Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas if healthy?

Thanks to the "+" measures, we can create a pretty good estimate. To do so, we're going to look at one specific measure: Passing PPP+, or EqPts per Pass. As you know, EqPts create an estimated point value for every play (and the "+" is the schedule adjustment), so if we can determine what Mizzou's PPP+ was for Healthy Blaine and Injured Blaine, we can estimate what Missouri may have produced if Injured Blaine never happened. (And we're keeping rushing stats out of the equation to keep things simple.)

Passing PPP+, Healthy Blaine: 149.4
Passing PPP+, Injured Blaine: 92.1

So even taking opponent strength into account, Injured Blaine produced 62% of what Healthy Blaine produced, which is just a tremendous drop-off. So if we take the Healthy Blaine PPP+ and apply it to the passes thrown by Injured Blaine, you get the following added production (assuming the exact same number of passes were thrown against NU/OSU/UT, which of course is a faulty premise, but it's what we've got):

vs Nebraska: +2.0 Passing EqPts (the rain was going to wipe out a good portion of the passing attack regardless)
vs Oklahoma State: +7.7 Passing EqPts
vs Texas: +2.6 Passing EqPts

That's an addition of 12.3 EqPts, or almost two touchdowns. Who knows if the timing of those points would have changed the outcome of either the NU or OSU games, but that's not the point of this exercise. Taking some super-rough estimates into account, here's a guess at what Gabbert might have produced in the 95 Injured Blaine passes if healthy:

58-for-95 passing, 810 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT

Which means we'd be looking at a season line of this:

Blaine Gabbert, New 2009
Stats: 240-for-373 passing, 3,307 yards, 24 TD, 4 INT
Rates: 64.3% completion rate, 8.9 yards per pass, 6.4% TD rate, 1.1% INT rate

And this doesn't even take into account that he barely played in the second half of the Texas game.

Just as means of comparison...

Chase Daniel, 2006
Stats: 287-for-452, 3,527 yards, 28 TD, 10 INT
Rates: 63.5% completion rate, 7.8 yards per pass, 6.2% TD rate, 2.2% INT rate

Gabbert would be slightly better across the board. You would expect him to have better yards per pass figures just because of his strong arm, but better completion, TD, and INT rates? Yikes.

Now think about this: what would Danario Alexander's numbers look like right now with no Gimpy Blaine? Of the 16 extra completions and 298 extra yards, he'd have probably snagged about 7 and 125 of them, giving him about 99 catches for 1,536 yards. That would bump him from third to second in the country in receptions per game, and from third to first in the country in receiving yards per game.

(And he still wouldn't be a Biletnikoff finalist.)

Three Positives

Diminishing Returns. Iowa State's offense proved what I always say about the dink-and-dunk attack: you can get away with it for a while, but unless you're able to go deep, you can't get away with it forever. Darius Darks' end-of-first-half 38-yard touchdown catch was really the only deeper pass the Cyclones completed, and thanks to their lack of a deep threat, Mizzou was able to play closer to the line than normal and get away with it. Eventually, the yards and points dried up, as ISU managed just 105 yards and 7 points after halftime, and just 8 yards in the fourth quarter.

This is at least somewhat good news, as there is no doubt that KU will be utilizing as many short passes as they can get away with on Saturday. They tried it last year, and it eventually wore down Mizzou's defense since Mizzou's offense performed so terribly for most of the first half. If Mizzou's offense does its job and puts some points on the board early, it will be harder for KU to take shots downfield against a tired defense, and even though KU still has Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier, if Mizzou stays fresh, they can defend KU's offense at least relatively well as the game progresses.
Dave Yost. Missouri still has some work to do to get Blaine Gabbert up into the Chase Daniel Department when it comes to performance on passing downs, but Mizzou's standard downs performance Saturday was simply fantastic, and some credit for that has to go to the puppet master in the press box, Dave Yost. He was crushed by Mizzou fans a few games ago for not knowing what plays to call to get an offense led by an injured quarterback to score points against some great defenses, but ... well, no offensive coordinator in the country would have engineered much in that situation. Yes, Mizzou could have tried to run the ball more, but it simply would not have made much of a difference. But if he gets crushed when Mizzou struggles, he deserves a ton of credit when Mizzou is operating smoothly, and without their #1 RB in the second half and their #2 WR all game, Mizzou's offense was the definition of smooth against Iowa State.
Jerrell Jackson. We all know what Danario Alexander can do, but Mizzou needed another weapon on Saturday to compensate for the loss of Jared Perry and to prevent Iowa State from quintuple-teaming Alexander, and Jackson stepped up, to the tune of 142 receiving yards (just 31 behind Alexander) and 12 rushing yards, his second straight game combining for over 100 yards. He is a tremendous athlete, and if he can get that whole "hands" thing under control, he could be a lovely weapon for Mizzou in 2010-11. But speaking of the hands...

Three Negatives

Jerrell Jackson. As I posted on Twitter during the game, I'm really developing quite the love-hate relationship with this guy. If not for his drops, we might have won the OSU game even with a gimpy Gabbert. And if not for his drops and fumble, ISU probably would not have led at halftime. But without his catches, Mizzou might not have caught up to ISU. Still, though, while Gabbert probably needs to do a better job of throwing into Jackson's body to avoid the possibility of a drop, Jackson needs to do whatever he can to become a more reliable receiving weapon this offseason--catching 1,000,000 of Gabbert's fastballs, getting contacts, whatever. He might be the default #1 WR next year, and if he can't consistently catch the ball ... well ... that's not good.
ISU's Passing Success Rate. For the game, ISU's passing success rate of 47.7% wasn't too great, but in the first half it was far too high. As I mentioned above, it's hard to make the dink-and-dunk work all game, but it was working a lot early on, even with Mizzou giving smaller cushions than normal. In Q1, ISU's passing success rate was 72.7% (8-for-11), and after misfiring on the first three passes of Q2, ISU finished the half on a 55.6% clip (5-for-9). As we know, that resulted in 17 points, and then the spigot went dry. However, against KU, a rate like that might result in about 21-24 points, so even though this ended up a positive for MU, it's a reason to be at least slightly nervous about what KU might do.
Kickoff Coverage. Here are ISU's starting field positions following Mizzou kickoffs:

ISU 27, ISU 46, ISU 36, ISU 31, ISU 32, ISU 20, ISU 34

Seven kickoffs with only one stop inside the 25 yard line. Five of seven times, ISU started past the 30. And ISU is only an average kick-returning team. Kansas, meanwhile, has Dez Briscoe. There is no question that Gary Pinkel and staff have figured things out in terms of the best way to coach kicking and punting...and, for that matter, punt coverage has been pretty good recently too. But there's something about kickoffs that is harder to coach, and Mizzou has not been a very good coverage team any time recently. In the six years of data recorded at CFB Stats, Mizzou has ranked 87th (2009), 94th (2008), 53rd (2007), 73rd (2006), 103rd (2005), and 91st (2004) in opponents' kick returns. Ouch. And that's just the returns, that doesn't even take into account the overall good starting field position when Mizzou has to pooch it to avoid a big return.

Anyway, of all my concerns for KU, the two biggest ones are KU's dink-and-dunk ability and their likely fantastic starting field position, and the ISU game only highlighted both of these concerns.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Mizzou was +3 points in the turnover game, and they won by 10. One more strip by Iowa State, and it could have turned the game.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Mizzou advanced inside ISU's 35 five times and came away with 20 points -- two touchdowns, two field goals, and a turnover on downs. Meanwhile, ISU advanced inside Mizzou's 35 four times and came away with 17 points -- two touchdowns (both on trick plays), a field goal and a turnover on downs. In other words, this was just about a wash. Mizzou's two long touchdowns trumped ISU's one, and that made the difference in the game.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not.

Consider this one a FAIL in Q1, a slight fail in Q2, a wash in Q3, and a WIN in Q4. Like I said, Mizzou might not want to wait as long to really play the short passes well this Saturday, but in all this was still an overall net win for Mizzou.

Summary

Despite the fact that their own mistakes allowed for a little more adversity than you'd like to see (particularly the late-Q2 fumble and some first-half issues defending the short pass), you always like seeing your team overcome adversity, and for the second game in a row, Mizzou dominated the second half. They sent Sean Weatherspoon and Danario Alexander out as winners, and their young players (particularly #11) continued to show significant growth. One of the major goals for 2009 was just to not screw up our hopes for the future, and their late-game surges the last couple of weeks have assured that this goal was rather successful, no matter what happens from here on out (though it's obvious that optimism could be starkly diminished with a couple of losses to finish the season). In all, it was a lovely Saturday to watch a Mizzou win, and like the Mizzou team did immediately after the game, we now turn the page and look to Kansas.

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:13 -0000

With basketball and the Mark Mangino Soap Opera for Dudes, it's been easy to become distracted from the fact that Mizzou has another home football game to play! I'm figuring Mizzou hasn't forgotten...at least I hope they haven't, as ISU's good enough to pop you in the chin if you let your guard down. Just ask Nebraska.

With his postgame celebration after Iowa State's win over Nebraska, I think it's safe to say that Paul Rhoads became most Big 12 North fans' second-favorite coach (or in the case of Colorado fans, maybe even their favorite). He is a passionate guy who, as we talked about this summer, seems to consider Iowa State a destination job, and in Year One of the Rhoads tenure, Iowa State is 6-5 and staring a bowl bid in the face. While their rankings below (and the fact that they've only beaten one team with a winning record, and it took eight turnovers to do so) suggest a relatively easy win for Missouri, it is certainly worth noting that they beat both Baylor and Nebraska this year, something Mizzou was unable to do. If Missouri plays well, as well as they did against Kansas State last week, they will win this game. But if they don't, Iowa State has proven quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunities given them and sneaking out with a seventh win.

Offense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

If fans have seen any one game Iowa State has played this year, it was probably the Nebraska game, which would give you the impression of a team light on offense but heavy on defensive playmakers. For the season, that really has not been the case. Statistically, they are much more successful on offense than defense; the key for the Cyclones, in both wins and losses, has been turnovers.

Iowa State's 6 wins: 22 takeaways (3.7 per game), 9 turnovers (1.5 per game), +13 turnover margin
Iowa State's 5 losses: 7 takeaways (1.4 per game), 13 turnovers (2.6 per game), -6 turnover margin

If stripping the ball is a skill, Paul Rhoads has taught it well. ISU has forced 29 fumbles this year (2.6 per game), almost three per game, and it has served them well against careless teams. Missouri has done well in only fumbling 14 times on the season (1.4 per game), but caution will be infinitely better than stretching for the extra yard on Saturday. Even taking the Nebraska game (and its +8 margin) out of the equation, ISU has still been good at taking the ball away, and it has still mattered a ridiculous amount toward whether they win or lose.

Anyway, to the offense. The numbers are, for the most part, pretty decent, though the after-the-jump conference figures tell you an interesting story.

Iowa State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	ISU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	107.3 (51)	105.1 (47)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	109.6 (31)	100.5 (60)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	105.9 (64)	111.8 (43)

Rushing S&P+	106.5 (52)	113.5 (38)
Passing S&P+	109.4 (49)	97.2 (63)

Standard Downs S&P+	106.5 (51)	115.4 (24)
Passing Downs S&P+	103.9 (59)	96.7 (69)

Red Zone S&P+	115.8 (39)	117.4 (31)

Q1 S&P+	96.3 (84)	92.2 (80)
Q2 S&P+	101.1 (65)	132.1 (13)
Q3 S&P+	130.2 (16)	105.5 (51)
Q4 S&P+	104.7 (63)	114.3 (33)

1st Down S&P+	110.8 (39)	109.6 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	100.7 (72)	105.4 (52)
3rd Down S&P+	103.2 (70)	110.2 (43)

Line Yards+	113.9 (23)	102.3 (52)
Close Sack Rate+	232.2 (6)	82.1 (88)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	125.8 (44) / 200.9 (18)	114.8 (44) / 104.4 (58)

I listed 19 categories above, and in half of them, ISU ranks between 30th and 60th. That's pretty much the definition of "decent." They are outstanding on the offensive line -- by far the strongest in the North division according to these statistics -- but their skill position players are, well, somewhat lacking in skill. They are, however, extremely efficient, which is a nice quality to have against a Missouri defense that sacrifices efficiency for limited big plays. I will be interested to see how much Missouri adjusts its defensive gameplan to account for short passes, though I personally doubt they will tinker much. I'm pretty sure they will be perfectly content with doing what they did against K-State: allowing all the yardage they want between the 30s, then cracking down in the red zone.

These numbers, however, do not tell the entire story. For that, we need to go to their "Non-Conference vs Conference Play" numbers after the jump.

ISU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	107.3	94.1
Close SR+	106.2	103.9
Close PPP+	106.5	81.0

Rushing S&P+	115.6	98.5
Passing S&P+	97.1	94.4

Standard Downs S&P+	112.2	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	95.5	97.2

Red Zone S&P+	105.4	95.0

Q1 S&P+	98.7	84.7
Q2 S&P+	107.1	95.8
Q3 S&P+	107.6	111.0
Q4 S&P+	100.6	97.2

Note: you'll see that some of the conference/non-conference averages do not really match up with the season averages above. This is because I was looking at per-game data for the conference breakout, and one really good or really bad game can skew those numbers pretty considerably. For the full-season data, I look at every play (a sample size of, well a lot of plays) instead of "+" scores from a sample size of ten games. If this disclaimer didn't make any sense, don't worry about it. It's not that important, and I'm not really feeling like an A+ wordsmith at the moment.

Here is a game-by-game look at Iowa State's scoring progression this year: 34, 3, 34, 31, 23, 36, 24, 9, 10, 8, 17. After averaging 26.4 points over their first six games, the Cyclones have managed just 11.0 points in their last four. Thanks in part to turnovers and improving defense, they have gone 2-2 in that span, but this does start to take the look of a "Score 24 points and you'll probably win" game. We know that Baylor wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire before they came to Faurot Field two weeks ago, but the matchups in this game are not the same. Baylor doesn't have a lot of skill at wide receiver, but they have pure speed, and they burned Missouri with it. Iowa State quite frankly just doesn't have that speed. Their offense resembles K-State's without Brandon Banks--solid, strong running back, good tight end play (not that KSU showed any of that against Mizzou), and a big bunch of possession receivers.

The passing game has remained rather consistent throughout the season, but consistency isn't a great trait when you're just consistently being slightly below average. The running game, meanwhile, has regressed considerably, from rock solid in September to distinctly average in October and November. Consequently, they have remained about the same on passing downs, but they have fallen off on standard downs, which has resulted in a lot more passing downs.

When ISU Has the Ball...
ISU Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
ISU Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	later in halves

Mizzou Advantages:

Points Per Play+ (explosiveness)
Rushing
Standard Downs
Red Zone (slightly)
Q2, Q4
2nd, 3rd Down

And for ISU...

Success Rate+ (efficiency)
Passing (slightly)
Q3
Line Yards, Sack Rates

It doesn't speak kindly of Alexander Robinson that Iowa State's run blocking numbers are so good, yet their actual rushing numbers are so average. In all, you can kind of see where both teams might succeed. Iowa State will succeed by playing well in the trenches and pulling off as many short, quick passes as they can manage. Missouri will succeed by using their superior linebackers to limit the running game, by tackling well, and by making stops on standard downs to force passing downs.

Quarterback

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

Austen Arnaud: 131-for-237 passing, 1,550 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INT (119.3 efficiency); 479 rushing yards, 7 TD
Jerome Tiller: 41-for-73 passing, 376 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT (93.0 efficiency); 216 rushing yards, 2 TD

For the second straight season, Austen Arnaud has put together numbers that are ... perfectly average. ISU has been decent in the passing game (with little help from the receiving corps), and Arnaud has become more of a threat with his legs this year, and he is by all means a solid quarterback. He will never threaten for all-conference honors, and honestly he seems like he should be scarier than he is -- strong arm, good legs, etc. --but he is competent. I mean this entire paragraph as neither a bad thing nor a particularly bad thing.

Running Back

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in Adjusted POE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Alexander Robinson: 196 carries, 1,002 yards (5.1 per carry), 6 TD; 10 receptions, 200 yards (20.0 per catch), 3 TD
Jeremiah Schwartz: 71 carries, 264 yards (3.7 per carry)

Again, Robinson's numbers look strong, and he was huge against Missouri at Faurot Field two years ago, but once you factor line play into the equation, he starts to look very average, very quickly. He is a workhorse, however, and there is value in that. In the last five games that he has played (he missed the Nebraska game with a groin injury), he has averaged 22.4 carries per game, and like KSU's Daniel Thomas, ISU will absolutely lean on him as much as they can. It's just that, in those five games, he's only averaged over 5.0 yards per carry once. The injury has clearly affected his explosiveness.

In the nine games he's played (he only got 4 carries against KSU, so we're not counting that one here), here are his yards per carry:

5.2, 5.3, 6.2, 5.9, 5.6, 4.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.6

Even last week against Colorado, when he went for 138 yards (plus 20 yards receiving), he still averaged less than five yards. The trick with Robinson is, the longer ISU stays in the game, the more they can pound away at you with him. But if you get a lead, then they don't know where to go with the ball. He still averaged 18 carries a game in blowout losses against OSU and ATM, but it didn't help much, as ISU scored only 18 points combined.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

WR Marquis Hamilton (Sr.): 41 receptions, 542 yards (13.2 per catch), 4 TD
WR Jake Williams (Jr.): 26 receptions, 297 yards (11.4 per catch), 3 TD
WR Josh Lenz (Fr.): 20 receptions, 186 yards (9.3 per catch)
WR Darius Darks (So.): 17 receptions, 158 yards (9.3 per catch), 1 TD
WR Darius Reynolds (Jr.): 13 receptions, 72 yards (5.5 per catch!)

TE Derrick Catlett (Sr.): 25 receptions, 277 yards (11.1 per catch), 2 TD
TE Collin Franklin (Jr.): 14 receptions, 149 yards (10.6 per catch)

If a wide receiver is making a big play, it is almost certainly coming from Marquis Hamilton, who seems to be in his 19th year in Ames. Otherwise, this is as nondescript a WR corps as you will find. The good news for ISU is, they have a pair of rock solid tight ends, and they will use them a lot if given the opportunity. Of ISU's 12 complete passes last week, five went to the tight ends. Derrick Catlett very much impressed me in last year's Mizzou-ISU game, and Mizzou very much needs to account for him. Still, though, having good tight ends only helps with efficiency, not so much explosiveness. If Mizzou tackles well and plays smart, this unit simply will not have much of a day.

Offensive Line

Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.
Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Consider this the best test of the month for Mizzou's improving, and almost awesome, defensive line. As mentioned in the above excerpt, this is a big, strong offensive line, and they have the potential to wear you down if you are allowing too many first downs. They are good in pass protection, but their strength is in the running game. With an elite back, the run blocking really could have made the difference between six wins and a North title. This is Iowa State's single strongest unit.

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Defense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

ISU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	ISU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	86.5 (100)	116.2 (28)
Close Success Rate+	83.1 (117)	106.7 (41)
Close PPP+	91.9 (73)	133.1 (22)

Rushing S&P+	97.5 (74)	102.5 (67)
Passing S&P+	78.2 (111)	126.7 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	90.7 (95)	113.3 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	91.5 (87)	115.4 (43)

Red Zone S&P+	98.9 (69)	79.3 (108)

Q1 S&P+	79.2 (106)	120.9 (38)
Q2 S&P+	94.8 (75)	114.9 (43)
Q3 S&P+	90.6 (84)	118.1 (32)
Q4 S&P+	92.9 (79)	107.0 (56)

1st Down S&P+	97.2 (70)	114.1 (34)
2nd Down S&P+	82.3 (107)	112.0 (48)
3rd Down S&P+	87.4 (95)	118.5 (35)

Line Yards+	89.6 (100)	99.1 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	44.9 (119)	140.4 (29)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	51.7 (114) / 76.9 (94)	228.7 (11) / 110.9 (53)

When they are not forcing turnovers, they are not getting the job done.

ISU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	98.8	96.7
Close SR+	99.6	86.9
Close PPP+	98.7	120.5

Rushing S&P+	131.4	113.4
Passing S&P+	81.7	91.5

Standard Downs S&P+	96.7	98.6
Passing Downs S&P+	107.1	119.1

Red Zone S&P+	115.1	129.5

Q1 S&P+	100.0	102.0
Q2 S&P+	125.8	124.0
Q3 S&P+	83.9	111.7
Q4 S&P+	132.5	104.4

So as the season has progressed, Iowa State has gotten better defending the pass and worse defending the rush. Against Missouri, that might not necessarily be a bad thing for them. You have to account for Mizzou's pass before you worry about the run.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Push
Missouri Passing	Big Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	The rest of the game

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, Points Per Play+
Rushing (slight)
Passing (huge)
Standard Downs, Passing Downs
Q1-Q4
1st-3rd Down
Line Yards
Sack Rates (HUGE)

ISU's advantages:

Red Zone

Two quick notes:

ANY sack Mizzou gives up is a huge failure. ISU has generated one of the worst pass rushes in the country.
Each of the last two games, a key factor has been Touchdowns vs Field Goals. ISU's only significant advantage is in the Red Zone, but if they can hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven, they will stay in the game for longer and longer. And as mentioned above, the longer they stay in this game, the longer they can pound away at Mizzou with their big linemen in run blocking.

Defensive Line

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

DE Christopher Lyle: 41.0 tackles, 9.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH, 3 PBU
DT Nate Frere: 17.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 QBH
DT Bailey Johnson: 15.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks
DE Patrick Neal: 14.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer: 12.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
DT Austin Alburtis: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

I called this unit a relative strength in the offseason, but it has been absolutely brutal this year. Chris Lyle has put together some nice numbers, but the rest of the line has been, to put it kindly, iffy. Mizzou's decent-not-great offensive line should be able to impose its will on this unit, which ranks 100th or worse in both line yards and sack rates.

Linebackers

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it.

Jesse Smith: 88.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 3 QBH, 5 PBU
Fred Garrin: 60.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 4 PBU
Josh Raven: 27.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH
Jake Knott: 16.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
A.J. Klein: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

On the other hand, ISU's linebackers been more disruptive than expected, at least in terms of getting a hand in on turnovers. Josh Raven has been the only behind-the-line-of-scrimmage threat, and this isn't a wonderful unit by any means, but the five players above have forced six fumbles, recovered two, and picked off four passes. If Blaine Gabbert gets a little too greedy and locks in on a receiver, the back seven of ISU's defense might make him pay.

Secondary

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

S James Smith: 61.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 3 FR, 5 PBU
S David Sims: 54.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 4 INT, 3 FF, 1 FR
CB Leonard Johnson: 46.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 PBU
CB Kennard Banks: 42.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 5 PBU
S Michael O'Connell: 27.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBU
CB Ter'ran Benton: 26.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
CB Jeremy Reeves: 10.0 tackles

It's interesting: the Iowa State secondary has been about as disruptive a secondary as you could ask for. Eleven tackles for loss, nine interceptions, seven forced fumbles, seven recovered fumbles, a ton of broken-up passes ... and yet, when they are not making huge plays, they're leaking yardage like our old dishwasher leaked water. This is about as all-or-nothing a unit as you're going to find, and it is a must that Mizzou play smart in their passing game. If Gabbert makes the smart throw, and the receivers hold onto the ball (Jerrell Jackson, I'm looking in your general direction), then they should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. But ISU is good at turning little mistakes into large mistakes. Speaking of mistakes...

Injured Blaine Gabbert: 42-for-95 passing (44.2%), 512 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD (1.1% of passes), 5 INT (5.3%)
Healthy Blaine Gabbert: 159-for-246 (64.6%), 2,150 yards (8.7 per pass), 19 TD (7.7%), 2 INT (0.8%)

WOW. I realize that his injury coincided perfectly with the best threesome of pass defenses that Missouri faced this year, and I realize he wouldn't have produced his season averages in 11 quarters against Nebraska, OSU, and Texas, but ... still ... wow. Healthy Gabbert is completing 20% more of his passes than Injured Gabbert, for 3.3 more yards per pass, throwing TDs at a 7x higher rate, while throwing INTs at almost a 7x lower rate. It's an amazing question to wonder what Gabbert's already strong numbers would have looked like had Ndamukong Suh not rolled him up.

In the end, Healthy Gabbert is taking on a secondary that, while more disruptive, is really no better than Kansas State's ... and with help from Danario Alexander, he carved K-State up quite nicely. I'm curious how Mizzou will handle the loss of Jared Perry, particularly who becomes the fourth major target, assuming Jerrell Jackson is now #2 and Wes Kemp #3 (or vice versa). Does long-lost Andrew Jones join the fray again? Does somebody like Brandon Gerau, Rolandis Woodland, or T.J. Moe suddenly see a couple passes? Danario Alexander already catches a higher percentage of his team's passes than any other major receiver, so we can't really lean on him more than we already do.

Special Teams

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Punt Returns Rank: 104th (Josh Lenz: 19 returns, 4.7 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 24th (Mike Brandtner: 56 punts, 40.5 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 56th (Leonard Johnson: 17 returns, 20.4 avg; David Sims: 15 returns, 22.9 avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 7th (Grant Mahoney: 2 touchbacks in 48 kickoffs)

Field Goals: 98th (Grant Mahoney: 12-for-19, Long: 52)
PATs: 118th (Grant Mahoney: 21-for-25)

Another all-or-nothing unit, ISU's coverage teams are rock solid. They're 24th in Net Punting and 7th in Net Kickoffs, but they pretty much stink on ice at everything else. They're bad at returning punts, they're bad at place-kicking, and they're only okay at kickoff returns. (Of course, "okay at kickoff returns" could actually mean "good at kickoff returns" against Missouri. We'll see.) Mizzou has a solid advantage here if Jake Harry is getting good bounces and there are no complete debacles at kickoff return.

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Three Keys to the Game

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

It's pretty obvious that Iowa State is well above average in terms of forcing fumbles and intercepting passes. If it is a technique that can be learned, they've learned it. Meanwhile, Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

Mizzou had to settle for three field goals against Baylor, and even though The Amazing Grant Ressel made them all, settling for them in the first place cost them quite a bit in an eight-point win. Meanwhile, Missouri held K-State to four field goals last Saturday, and while their final winning margin suggests it probably wouldn't have made a difference, it did.

Defenses are slowly starting to catch up to offenses again, especially in the red zone, and it seems touchdowns have been much harder to come by for a lot of teams this year. If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not. But if they do ISU some favors, and the Cyclones are able to generate some bigger plays, then ... well, we saw what happens in that scenario two weeks ago against Baylor. Play disciplined on defense, do your job, and Iowa State will need another +8 turnover margin to win the game.

Prediction

Not surprisingly, the numbers like Mizzou quite a bit in this one. I don't believe too heavily in things like Senior Day emotion playing a big role or anything -- to me, it could almost be a detriment as much as an asset -- but in the end, emotion should even out, and Mizzou should move to 7-4. I cannot commend enough the job that Paul Rhoads has done this season, taking a group that had no idea how to win, and teaching them how to seize every opportunity and win some ball games. Still, though, if Missouri doesn't turn the ball over and give ISU extra opportunities, they should be able to handle Iowa State relatively easily. Make mistakes, however, and you will pay. The numbers say Mizzou by 18, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Iowa State 13.

Five Questions - Colorado Buffaloes vs. Iowa State Cyclones

irish1611 — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 17:11:56 -0000

More photos » by JACK DEMPSEY - AP

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Usually, we take the approach of discussing the keys to the game but today, the Colorado Buffaloes have to answer. Questions immediately start to swirl when the Buffs leave the state to play on the road. And they aren't necessarily football questions but questions about the makeup of this team. It is time for the Buffs to take the first step and answer those questions about their mentality, their toughness and their dedication to football. Today, a road win against a 5 - 5 Iowa State team in Ames where the Buffs have lost the last two games in heartbreak fashion would be a first step in the right direction.

1) Who is the player(s) in that locker room who will step up and lead today?

It has become clear that the coaching staff has not been able to motivate and prepare this team on the road. It is now time for the players or a player to lead this team and to me, the best leader in this situation is one who gets it going on the field. The Buffs need their big three - Tyler Hansen, Markques Simas or Rodney Stewart - to get things established early and lead the way.

The Buffs also need players to emerge as team leaders and get everyone focused before the game. No more excuses about energy today. No more excuses about not being ready on the road. Someone needs to step up and fix it.

2) Has the Offensive Line taken the criticism to heart and plays with a fire today?

Cut the sack total anyway you want, whether you think it is the running backs' fault or the quarterback's fault, the first line of defense is the offensive line. If they have pride today, they will take that blame, not divide it up among anyone else and play their best game of the year. They need to attack an undersized defensive line and establish dominance on the first snap of the game. Again, watch the first series, is Iowa State getting a push or are the Buffs getting after it up front. We will know very early if this unit is playing with motivation today.

To help the offensive line, the Buffs need to challenge the middle of the field where the linebackers reside. Using the tight end Riar Geer early will soften linebackers and take the multiple looks away from the Cyclones. Challenge the heart of the defense all day long.

3) How tough is the Colorado Buffalo defense?

Iowa State isn't flashy on offense, they aren't a big play team. What they are is a team with a good offensive line who has one of the better running games in the Big 12 while protecting the quarterback extremely well. They try to play "pound it" football while limiting mistakes. Can the Buffs answer the call up front against an Iowa State team who wants to run the ball? If Colorado can styme the running game and get pressure on Austen Arnaud when he passes, he has shown the propensity to turn the ball over and has been less than efficient this year.

It really is a game where the team who plays the best in the trenches should win. Are the Buffs's physically up to the challenge?

4) Are the Buffs focused enough to limit the mental mistakes?

The issues with special teams play, turnovers and piling up penalties have been well publicized this year. On the road, Colorado has averaged 10.5 penalties a game. The Buffs are 117th in the nation in penalties this year. Colorado is minus-4 on the road this year in turnover margin. At Austin, Colorado gave up 21 non defensive points (two special teams touchdowns and one interception for a score) while committing 20 penalties. At Morgantown, the Buffs' defense forced four turnovers, only for the Buffaloes' offense to give West Virginia the ball back three times. They also missed three field goals in that game. Against Toledo, Colorado turned the ball over four times and missed a field goal. In Manhattan, the Buffs missed an extra point and turned the ball over four times.

Simply put, the issues on the road are easily defined by turnovers, poor special teams play and an abundance of penalties.

5) Do the coaches feel the urgency of winning on the road and come out with one of their best game plans in the past four years?

I don't think much commentary is needed. Backs are against the wall, how will coaches prepare this team for a very winnable road game? Do they resort back to the past or is a change made today?

Go Buffs!

College Football Predictions - Week 11

JLew — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 22:31:42 -0000

by TONY DING - AP

What would make anyone cheer for this guy? (AP Photo/Tony Ding, File)

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So you thought I'd go with the Mangino is fat opening huh? Well I did already call him the Great Pumpkin in week 9, and really it's too easy. Everyone knows that he's fat, everyone has seen that baby that looks like him.

No what we are doing today is trying to decide when is it ok to root for Notre Dame? Will you be doing so this weekend? Which is better Weiss, or Steve Peterson's Pitt? No they cannot both lose....

Last week was.... yeah last week.

	Last week W/L	Last Week ATS	Overall W/L	Overall ATS
Husker Mike	3-3	1-5	58-24	36-46
Corn Blight	3-3	2-4	54-28	34-45
JLew	2-4	2-4	55-27	29-53

Gambling sucks kids. Just remember that the next time you look at Baylor @ Missouri and put all your bar money on that 'sure" thing. Ugh.

Well at least there maybe some humor in continuing these picks.

Colorado (+5.5) @ Iowa State

Mike: The Cyclone offense pretty much disappeared the last three weeks, even with Austen Arnaud returning last week. Meanwhile, the Buffies pulled off another upset at home. That's the key factor here. Iowa State needs to get off to a fast start and get into the lead. That'll make Dan Hawkins think his boy Cody needs to come in to throw the ball around to save the team. With the inevitable results. Cyclones 28, Buffies 17

Corn Blight: Colorado can’t string two wins together and for some reason, Iowa State has been beating the Buffs in Ames lately. I’ll take that as a sign. ISU 27, CU 17

JLew: Which CU shows up? What the hell is going on with this team? I don't feel safe putting any money on them. Ah heck I'll take the points. CU 28 ISU 27

Missouri (-1) @ Kansas State

Mike: Missouri laid one stinky turd on Faurot Field last week. Meanwhile, all the Wildcats do is win. So why aren't the Wildcats favored at home? Me thinks Vegas knows something, and I think they're right. KSU isn't as good as they appear...and the Tiggers aren’t as bad. Tigers 31, Wildcats 28

Corn Blight: Tigers vs Wildcats.…. I’m thinking Tigers win that one if we’re into mascot challenges... but this one is all about emotion. Bill Snyder has his Wildcats believing. Can Gary Pinkel pull the same out of his Tigers? Not many seniors on that Missouri team. Husker fans all want a Missouri win. Me too. Not going to happen, though. KSU 27, Missouri 24

JLew: So yeah I didn't think that KSU would win another game. I still don't think KSU will win another game! MU should be able to attack the soft pass defense of KSU. KSU has been quite good at bringing some hard hits though. Still Gabbert has to do something right? KSU 20 MU 23

Texas A&M (+20.5) @ Oklahoma

Mike: Both teams got upset last week... but Oklahoma's loss is better explained than A&M's. No way the Sooners drop to 5-5; in fact, I think they come out royally p-o'ed. Sooners 42, Aggies 14.

Corn Blight: Oklahoma squashes the Aggies. I would hate to be a Texas A&M guy right now. I just... don’t see much hope for them for a few years yet. OU 38, TAMU 14

JLew: Yep Husker fans know the ending to this ATM book. Sooners angry! Sooner smash! Don't worry Aggie fans it'll all be over in 3-4 more years. OU 35 A&M 17

Texas Tech (+4) @ Oklahoma State

Mike: Cowboys might have played their best game since Labor Day in Ames last week. But Steven Sheffield apparently isn't quite ready to start, and it looks like Taylor Potts might get the start anyway. Not sure how to read this, but if it's Potts, I'll take the Cowboys. OSU 34, TT 31

Corn Blight: What I’d really like to see here is a shouting match between Mike Leach and Mike Gundy. Maybe a post-game presser brawl. Still, watching this game can be exciting because both teams play each other to the wire in Stillwater. Red Raiders haven’t won since 2001 there, though. Won’t again this year. Taylor Potts does suck. OSU 48, TT 35

JLew: Ohhh the South is so awesome, OSU or Tech would win the North hands down blah blah blah. OSU should be able to handle Tech with either QB. OSU 42 Tech 31

Texas (-24) @ Baylor

Mike: Raise your hand if you saw Baylor upsetting Missouri last week. Didn't think so. Now raise your hand if you think Baylor will upset Texas this week. Didn't think so either. Longhorns 41, Bearsh 13

Corn Blight: Texas won’t lose until the Big 12 title game. Ho hum. Texas 52, Baylor 10

JLew: Is Colt still in the running for the Heisman? Does anyone care? About the award or this game? Will any Baylor fans show up? Texas 38 Baylor 13

Pitt vs Notre Dame

Corn Blight: Charlie Weis vs the tag team of Steve Pederson/Dave Wannstache. Which would I rather see - Charlie Weis’ arrogant head hanging down, or Steve Pederson’s athletic department knocked from their lofty heights? Who the hell am I kidding? Charlie Weis has got other games in which he’ll suck. I’m cheering for Charlie and Jimmy this week! Notre Dame 28, Pitt 21

Mike: This is what I used to call a "Global Thermonuclear War" game. I wouldn't care if both teams got blown off the face of the earth. Well, scratch that. Save the players; but the coaches and athletic directors both can go pound sand. But with Notre Dame alumni already calling for Weis' scalp, I'll have to turn my attention to Evil Incarnate. Can't believe I'm saying this, but Go Irish. Fat Egomaniac 24, Evil Egomaniac 21

JLew: I root for the Irish, for this game, if only so ND will be forced to keep Weiss for longer, leading to more sucking. Irish 24 Pitt 21

Nebraska (-3.5) @ Kansas

Mike: This point spread is a little closer than I thought it would be, which tells me (a) Vegas still has no faith in the NU offense (and why should they?) and (b) Kansas has shown signs of progress by hanging with Tech and Kansas State the last two weeks. I think a hobbled Todd Reesing is a bad matchup against Ndamukong Suh and Jared Crick. I actually think that if Nebraska can go vertical in Lawrence, this game might not be close. But we're still talking about the Husker offense: NU 20, Kansas 9

Corn Blight: There are so many what ifs in this game it isn’t funny. The ONLY thing clearly established is that Nebraska’s defense is one of the best of the nation and playing at it’s best right now. That means it’s time for the offense to get something going, anything. Nebraska 17, Kansas 6

JLew: So does this game really matter? Nu can still win the North with a loss. I really think that the offense finds some yards and maybe some points. KU is trying to block Suh with a red-shirt Freshman. I really don't know how KU will be able to move the ball. NU 24 KU 10

Thursday Buff Bites - Kasa's Medical Redshirt Up in the Air

irish1611 — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 01:49:13 -0000

ISU football: Buffaloes will gladly take game on road | desmoinesregister.com | The Des Moines Register
Tyler Hansen thinks getting away from the Colorado fans who wore powder blue last week will be a good thing. Think whatever you want Tyler, as long as it motivates the team against Iowa State:

"Some of our fans are against us," quarterback Tyler Hansen said. "Because of everything that's gone on, we really won't mind going on the road. "In a way, it'll be good to get away." Even with an 11-game losing streak away from home, Hansen said going on the road for a game significant to bowl hopes of both teams won't be all that bad. Upset with the direction of the program, including losing six of the first eight games this season, some fans wore the same powder blue that Colorado football teams wore while winning 10 games in four seasons between 1981 and 1984. "A group of fans chose to wear blue to disrespect the players and to protest the coaching staff and the program as a whole," Hansen said. "It ticked us off."

Buffaloes try to fix road woes -- again - The Longmont Times-Call

KASA UPDATE: CU reported Wednesday the chances are not good for freshman defensive end Nick Kasa to receive a medical hardship in 2009, and the extra year of eligibility that accompanies it. He meets one of the criteria players must meet to receive the hardship year. He played in a maximum of 30 percent of the games, four of 12. Rounding up is allowed. Kasa does not meet the second piece of criteria. Kasa played in game No. 7, at Kansas State on Oct. 24. The injury or illness that ends the player’s year must occur in the first half of the season. Game 7 occurred in the second half of CU’s season.

Brooks: O-Line LooksTo Refocus - CUBuffs.com

At Iowa State Saturday (noon MST, no TV), CU expects to encounter a defense that has featured four down linemen and zone blitzes, with pressure brought off the edges. Linebacker Jesse Smith averages a conference-best 11.0 tackles a game (56 solo, 54 assists), but the Cyclones are last in the league in sacks (12 in 10 games)

09 week 11 picks - College Football Nation Blog - ESPN

Iowa State 24, Colorado 21: The Cyclones are playing for a bowl berth and Colorado is trying to keep its flickering bowl hopes and North title aspirations alive. ISU’s key will be to get its running game going and let Austen Arnaud have some success throwing play-action passes. The home team has claimed the victory in this series in each of the past five seasons. I’m looking for that streak to hit six.

Under Armour All-American RB Jordon James picks UCLA - ESPN
Here is another reason UCLA doesn't want to accept Darrell Scott's transfer:

After narrowing his choices to Arizona, Cal and UCLA, Under Armour All-American running back Jordon James (Corona, Calif./Corona) announced on ESPNU Thursday night that he'll play for the Bruins. James, who's earned a four-star rating, is ranked 19th in the ESPNU 150 and is the fourth-ranked running back in the country

MBB to Begin Season Friday - CUBuffs.com

ABOUT ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF: Head Coach George Ivory enters his second season (13-18 last year) and the Lions return all five starters from a year ago. The Lions won 11 SWAC games and finished fourth overall. Point-guard Terrance Calvin (12.0 ppg., 5.5 rpg., 3.6 apg) and power forward Tyree Glass (8.3 ppg., 4.4 rpg.) top the team in returners. CU defeated Ark.-Pine Bluff in the season opener for both schools last year, 76-56. In that game, returning forward Lebaron Weathers (7.3 ppg., 5.5 rpg.) recorded 22 points and 10 rebounds.

Cabral pleased with Major's development - The Denver Post

Those who think Colorado redshirt freshman linebacker Jon Major has been a disappointment this season do not see his potential, CU linebackers coach Brian Cabral said. Although Major, a former Ponderosa High standout and 2007 Parade All-American, has played in just four games, Cabral said he is "very pleased with where Jon is at and very excited about his future." Cabral said Major is still playing catch-up. The 6-foot-1, 220-pounder missed the 2008 season after undergoing knee surgery for a torn ACL. He sat out 2009 spring drills and was held out of some contact work early in August camp. "Early this season, it was just a matter of Jon getting physically healthy and getting more confidence in that leg," Cabral said. "Now, it's a matter of getting experience."

CU's McKnight doesn`t fit typical wide receiver mold - Boulder Daily Camera
Heart, mental fortitude make up for CU junior`s size

Hirschman Named Kelly-Moore Paints HS Player of the Week
Buffs' commit Nick Hirschman has been given an award by the San Francisco 49ers.com

What to watch in the Big 12, Week 11 - College Football Nation Blog - ESPN

8. Can Iowa State get its running game back against Colorado? The Cyclones were leading the league in rushing before producing a season-low 54 yards against Oklahoma State last week. They shouldn’t be as challenged against a Colorado defense that ranks 72nd nationally and ninth in the conference against the run. The Cyclones desperately need to get Alexander Robinson involved early to help boost a struggling offense that has produced only three touchdowns in its last 13 quarters. Bowl hopes might be riding on it.

Higgins & Thorne Named Captains - CUBuffs.com

University of Colorado men's basketball head coach Jeff Bzdelik announced Wednesday that senior Dwight Thorne II and junior Cory Higgins were named captains for the upcoming 2009-10 season. Both earned the honor for the second straight year.

Four-star viewers guide for Saturday's games - Big 12 Blog - ESPN

Colorado at Iowa State (1 p.m.): Something has to give in this game. Iowa State needs a victory to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2005. Colorado needs a victory to keep its flickering championship and bowl hopes alive. A Buffalo loss ends all of that. The Buffaloes looked like they got a spark in the passing game with Tyler Hansen throwing to Markques Simas, they might be able to thrive against the smallish Cyclone secondary. But the Cyclones will be looking to dominate the clock with their running game, which struggled last week.

Postgame Reaction: KU

TB — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 17:27:57 -0000

by Charlie Riedel - AP

That, KU fans, is how your force a fumble. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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K-State defeated KU Saturday, 17-10, to return the Governor's Cup to Manhattan. We'll get more into that in a moment, but first, an aside.

To all the KU fans who laughed at Bill Snyder's return, said there was no way he could turn things around because KU and Mizzou were sooo good now, who said after the Colorado and Oklahoma games that K-State wouldn't win another game this year, and to all the fans of all teams who said that K-State was stuck in a spiral of mediocrity from which it was unlikely ever to recover:

Go fuck yourselves. The Legend is back.

Now, before we get into what I liked, what I didn't like and all the other stuff we usually do in this post, I want to look at a few numbers. Here is a comparison of each of K-State's opponent's season averages and what they did against K-State (excepting Texas Tech, because we know they seriously exceeded all season averages in that game):

--Averages: 431 yards per game, 303 passing ypg, 128 rushing ypg, 31 ppg

--Against K-State: 301 total yards, 241 passing yards, 60 rushing yards, 10 points

--Averages: 413 ypg, 274 passing ypg, 139 rushing ypg, 30 ppg

--Against K-State: 458 total yards, 294 passing, 164 rushing, 42 points

Colorado

--Averages: 303 ypg, 217 passing ypg, 86 rushing ypg, 23 ppg

--Against K-State: 244 total yards, 184 passing, 60 rushing, 6 points

Texas A&M

--Averages: 478 ypg, 293 passing ypg, 185 rushing ypg, 36 ppg

--Against K-State: 301 yards, 314 passing, -13 rushing, 14 points

Iowa State

--Averages: 367 ypg, 181 passing ypg, 186 rushing ypg, 21 ppg

--Against K-State: 371 total yards, 164 passing, 204 rushing, 23 points

As you can see, with the exception of the Texas Tech and Oklahoma games, K-State's defense has held its opponents at or below their season averages in yards and points, sometimes significantly so. Let's all stand up and give a big ovation to Vic Koenning and Chris Cosh. This defense was 117th in the nation last season. It currently ranks 43rd. Before the season, we figured that if the defense could improve to even somewhere in the 80s in total defense, it would be a remarkable turnaround. With two games left, it's possible this defense finishes in the top 40, and almost assured that it finishes in the top 50. Simply incredible.

What I liked...

...riding the D-Train. Whereas a lot of teams and players see their numbers fall when they get into conference play, this guy has just gotten better. Yesterday, it was 184 yards on 24 carries (7.7 yards/carry) and one touchdown.

...more wizardry from Vic Koenning and Chris Cosh. At times this season we've been critical that our defensive coordinators play too much soft zone, but there's a clear reason why they're being paid to do the job while we pay to sit in the stands. Yesterday, as has been the case most of the season, the plan was to keep things in front of us, swarm to the ball and tackle well, and force the opponent into long drives. The longer the drive, the better chance of forcing a fumble or getting a stop on a third down. Even on KU's last drive that resulted in points -- the field goal with 5:20 remaining -- the beaks had to run 16 plays just to cover 57 yards, and required two third-down conversions and one fourth-down conversions. It's frustrating that we didn't get the stops when we had a chance, but when you force third downs, the odds are that you'll get stops eventually.

...more disciplined play from the offense. While this team has more weapons than opponents would like to admit, it's not going to put up big numbers most of the time. The key is that Bill Snyder, Dana Dimel and Del Miller recognize that and don't try to force the issue. Grant Gregory is an average-at-best passing quarterback in the Big 12, but the coaches don't try to turn him into Colt McCoy or Landry Jones. They recognize that running the ball, controlling the clock, and limiting turnovers is how to win games with this team. Amazingly, outside of the late INT against Oklahoma last week, this team has not turned the ball over since the Iowa State game.

...throwing it deep on first downs. I may be in the minority in this one, because the inability to convert ended up leading to three second-and-tens, but the two first-down throws to Brandon Banks were good calls. The coordinators seemed to find a weakness, as Banks was open on both throws. Unfortunately, Gregory missed on the first throw (not to mention Banks didn't make the best play on the ball), and Banks just flat dropped what would have been a touchdown on the second throw. So they didn't work, but here's a copy-and-paste of what happened on first down on the next possession:

Gregory, Grant rush for 13 yards to the KU11, 1ST DOWN KS, out-of-bounds (Dudley, Drew).

Even though we couldn't capitalize on the throws, we got KU on its toes, and it opened up a nice running lane for Gregory.

...KU fans claiming that they gave this game away, and that we did nothing to win it. It's clear that these fans have already forgotten how KU had its success in 2007. There is more than one way to win a football game. One way is to line up with superior athletes, chuck it all over the lot, and put up a ton of yards and points. This works fine if you're Texas or Texas Tech or Oklahoma. But there's another way to win football games, and it's something SEC teams have been mastering for years now. Play sound defense that doesn't give up big plays and makes the offense earn everything they get, and protect the ball on offense.

Along with that, it's laughable to claim that KU had more to do with losing this game by turning the ball over than K-State winning it. On both of Todd Reesing's fumbles, the ball was forced out. Josh Moore forced the first one by getting a hat and shoulder right on the ball, and Jeffrey Fitzgerald (I think) slapped the ball out while pursuing from behind on the second one. Now, could both of those have been prevented? Yes, but just about any mistake in a football game can be prevented, it's whether or not the players actually execute. Reesing didn't slide and didn't protect the ball, and our players made him pay for it. On the interception, Reesing could have prevented it by checking down to Opurum in the flat, but he forced it downfield into double coverage and threw it right to Emmanuel Lamur. Again, entirely preventable, but the game comes down to players executing. Our players were in position, and Reesing didn't make the play he should have.

What I didn't like...

...well, um, not much. Moving on.

What it means and where we're going...

In terms of this rivalry, it means the Governor's Cup is back at Vanier Football Complex and that you have scoreboard for the next year over your friends, coworkers and neighbors who are KU fans. In a slightly different sense, it shows a sea tide of change from last year's result. K-State got run over in Lawrence last season by a KU team that ended 8-5. Though yesterday's win wasn't an utter pwning like last year was, it signals something significant in this series. With what was supposed to be their "History Awaits" squad -- now changed to "History, uhh, waits" -- KU couldn't even beat a K-State team that was a popular pick to finish last in the North. Now, with Snyder back and getting this team into position to make a bowl game and in control of its destiny in the Big 12 North, K-State is a team on the rise while KU will have to pick up the pieces after this year as it loses Reesing, Kerry Meier, Dezmon Briscoe, Jake Sharp and Darrell Stuckey.

In terms of the conference race, it once again means that K-State still controls its own destiny in the North. Nebraska's improbable victory over OU last night is neither here nor there, although it certainly wouldn't have hurt to see them lose. If we win next Saturday at home against Missouri and then go to Lincoln and win on 11/21, we will play in Dallas for the Big 12 Championship. That's not to say I won't be cheering like hell for KU to beat Nebraska this weekend, or for Colorado to beat them in Boulder, because a little help never hurts and it's not like we can just count on winning in Lincoln. But the fact remains that if we go 2-0, we will have won the Big 12 North and Snyder will deserve National Coach of the Year honors.

Previous Opponent Roundup

Massachusetts beat Northeastern, 37-7, to move to 5-4 (3-3 CAA) on the season.

Louisiana beat Arkansas State, 21-18, to move to 5-4 (3-2 Sun Belt) on the season.

UCLA finally got a Pac-10 win, beating Washington, 24-23, to move to 4-5 (1-5 Pac-10) on the season.

Nobody cares how Tennessee Tech did.

Recaps for Big 12 opponents are below (Texas Tech was idle).

Texas 35, UCF 3

A bit of a sluggish start (scoreless after one quarter, 14-3 UT lead at halftime) gave way to an easy victory over Central Florida. Colt McCoy put up huge numbers on the day, throwing for 470 yards. A mere 273 of those yards went to Jordan Shipley (did you know he's McCoy's roommate?!?!). Texas has it set on cruise control toward Dallas, with only games against KU, Baylor and Texas A&M remaining.

For more: Burnt Orange Nation

Up next: Baylor (Waco, Texas), 11/14

Colorado 35, Texas A&M 34

I've given up trying to figure out either Colorado or Texas A&M. Colorado hasn't been able to move the ball against a stiff breeze most of the year, and suddenly the Buffs go off for 437 yards against A&M. Hey Aggies, be sure to take your medication this week, this bipolar act is getting old.

For more: The Ralphie Report, I Am The 12th Man

Up next: Colorado vs. Iowa State (Ames, Iowa), 11/14; Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma (Norman, Okla.), 11/14

Oklahoma State 34, Iowa State 8

This game was a real snoozer. I tried to listen to some of it on XM on my way back to Kansas City, but Okie State led 27-0 in the third quarter and nothing of interest was happening. Despite getting Austen Arnaud and Alexander Robinson back on offense, ISU couldn't do anything right in tallying only 242 total yards and one touchdown with the game already well in hand. Good bounceback for Okie State, as the Cowboys are positioning themselves for a nice bowl trip if they finish strong. Meanwhile, the Cyclones are searching for that one more win they need for bowl eligibility.

For more: Clone Chronicles

Up next: Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech (Stillwater, Okla.), 11/14; Iowa State vs. Colorado (Ames, Iowa), 11/14

Nebraska 10, Oklahoma 3

I consider this game some small measure of the universe righting itself after Nebraska turned the ball over eight times in a home loss to Iowa State two weeks ago. Landry Jones apparently was not informed before the game that ~~Shawn~~ Matt O'Hanlon was not on his team, as he proceeded to throw the ball into the Irishman's waiting arms three times (he had five total interceptions in this game). Nebraska's only touchdown drive of the night was a remarkable one-yarder after Landry Jones, you guessed it, threw an interception. For the night, Nebraska "gained" 180 total yards (I want someone to tell me who the last Big 12 team was to win a game in which they gained less than 200 total yards). Nebraska now has a closing stretch that includes road games with KU and Colorado and a home game with K-State. Their defense will shut down or severely limit all three of those teams, but the question is whether their offense can do enough to win (or, at least as was the case last night, not turn the ball over).

For more: Corn Nation, Crimson and Cream Machine

Up next: Nebraska vs. KU (Lawrence, Kan.), 11/14; Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M (Norman, Okla.), 11/14

Rock M Roundtable!

Bill C. — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 22:00:39 -0000

1 - Just for fun, let's rank the North teams in order of their likelihood of winning the North. I'd like to see where everybody's mind is at right now.

2 - On a scale of 1-10, how concerned are you about your team's QB right now? (I'm curious about how you feel about Gabbert, but really I'm just curious how Doug feels about Todd Reesing right now.)

3 - Picks!

Oklahoma at Nebraska
Kansas at Kansas State
Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Texas A&M at Colorado
Central Florida at Texas??

And finally...
Baylor at Missouri

4 - In honor of this list, what's your favorite terrible action movie of all-time?

The Beef: 1 - #1 – Mizzou…I really think they will win out with a healthy Gabbert and having learned from the past few weeks, while I think NU is in enough trouble on offense that they will drop a couple of games

#2 – NU…have to put them there, but I don’t think they can hold the spot

#3 – kSU…and I don’t really think they can do it

#4 – kU…their murderous schedule is still taking its toll

#5 – ISU….would be fun…but…no

#6 – CU….um…yeah

2 - If 10 is the most concerned, color me at a 4. I think he is still one more week from being TOTALLY out of the woods on this injury, and he is still staring down receivers, which is leading to a good amount of picks. I don’t think this game coming up will do wonders for his confidence since BU has a decent pass defense and I think we will throw it even less than we did against CU. But a totally healthy BG for the last three games, along with a running game which should have a couple of decent efforts in their back pocket should be great for our confidence.

3 - Oklahoma at Nebraska – I know Bill’s numbers like NU…but I don’t. I am not entirely sure NU scores

Kansas at Kansas State – Boy howdy…I just don’t know. kU really needs this one, but I don’t like them having to play in Manhatten. I will take the ‘Cats in an ugly one

Oklahoma State at Iowa State – OSU to bounce back

Texas A&M at Colorado – aTm to pile on the insanity in Boulder

Central Florida at Texas?? – Yeah…UT will just keep running it up to make sure Iowa (or someone else I suppose) does not pass them

Baylor at Missouri – BU is dead-ass last against the run in conference, and I expect our (stubborn) coaches to take full advantage of that. Continue to pound the ball to D Wash (who seems to be regaining confidence) and D Moore (who seems to be clear of his own ankle issues) and use this game like you would a non-con game. Get people healthy…get things working and get on to the next week, which is the much bigger game. In the end, I think we dominate TOP, but perhaps not as much on the scoreboard, but I will still take us by about 17 points or so.

4 - Goodness…just clicking through that list, I love The Jackal, REALLY love Starship Troopers (Kill ‘em…kill ‘em all!!), REALLY REALLY love Hudson Hawk, REALLY love The Last Dragon (LEEE-ROI!!!!!), love Best of the Best (the scene at the end made my mom cry and that was all she saw of the movie). Ah…what a great list.

Doug: 1 - Hmmm... I think Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri have the best chances, probably in that order, and K-State, CU and ISU are in the bottom in that order. Though, honestly, I couldn't tell you why I have the teams ranked in that order.

2 - It's a 6 or 7. Defenses are getting to him, he's making some bad decisions (like multiple intentional grounding calls) and taking shots. Granted, there are still moments where the Reesing magic shines through, but the reality is he's been shorting passes and not getting enough time to work the entire field. I think they need to stop operating in the pocket so much and get him moving around. Plus, the fact that he's almost certainly fighting injuries adds to the concern.

3 - Oklahoma
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Seriously? Pass.
I'm not even going to dignify this game with a selection.
Missouri

4 - Oh, there are some good ones on the list.. but I'll go with The Jackal. Seriously, if I come across that movie on cable, I can't turn away... and that gun is awesome. Almost as awesome as Gere's accent.

Michael Atchison: 1 - This one requires a lot of math, and a lot of looking at the schedules, but here’s my best guess:

   1. K-State. Beat Kansas at home, take one of the remaining two (Mizzou, @NU), and it’s theirs (I think). Game at Lincoln could be for the division. Would’ve lost a million dollar bet a month ago.
   2. Nebraska. It’ll require two road wins against reeling teams plus a win over K-State, but if they do it, they win tie-breakers over K-State and Mizzou.
   3. Missouri. I’d rank them higher, but the Tigers need to be perfect from here on out, and the games at Manhattan and Arrowhead are far from gimmies.
   4. Colorado, Iowa State and Kansas. No chance. Each would have to pull off a minor miracle at this stage.

2 - 7 or 8. I’m fine with Gabbert. I think he needs to be more poised in the pocket (he gets happy feet early), and more judicious with his throws, but he’s a sophomore with crazy gifts and he’s going to take his team to a bowl game in a rebuilding year.

But now that you’ve mentioned Reesing, I watched that game and I think I’d be furious if I were a Kansas fan. First, I would’ve been miffed by the decision not to onside kick with the ball at Tech’s 40. They traded a chance at the ball for ten yards of field position. Still, in the grand scheme of things, that wouldn’t have put me over the edge (it’s the equivalent of Pinkel’s judgment on when to go for two). But lifting Reesing with 7:10 to play and down two touchdowns was insane. You don’t have much chance to win there, but you have a chance. And then they punted with 6:35 to play, down two touchdowns. Coaches always put off the tough decisions. But you have to look at the odds: Which gives me a better chance of winning? Punting here? Or going for it? When you’re down 14 with 6:35 to play, the only way to win is to make a big play. And punting is not a big play, especially not on the road, and not giving it to that offense. That decision, combined with benching Reesing, was as close to a surrender as I’ve seen in a long while.

3 - Oklahoma at Nebraska OU by 17.
Kansas at Kansas State KSU by 10.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State OSU by 20.
Texas A&M at Colorado Who could possibly know? One team wins by 40, but I don’t know which.
Central Florida at Texas?? I was shocked when (a) I noticed that game on the schedule last week; and (b) saw that it’s televised. Texas by a billion.

Baylor at Missouri Tigers by 21.

4 - Either the one where Steven Seagal kicks ass on a submarine (though that one is probably better than craptastic) or the one where Steven Seagal kicks hillbilly ass in the mountains and gives Marg Helgenberger the vapors.

Michael Atchison: I follow the South Florida beat writer on Twitter, and he just posted that last night Jarrid Famous put up 20 points, 8 boards and 6 assists in USF’s exhibition game. AAAAAArrrgh!

The Beef: AAAAAAAArgh! Is right. Man…don’t get me wrong…I like where we are going as a program. But given my considerations and questions about our low-post game…man I would have loved to have had Famous out there.

ZouDave:

ZouDave: 1 - I would say:

Nebraska - 3-1 in final 4 games to hold steady at 5-3
Missouri - 4-0 in final 4 games to reach 5-3
KSU - 0-3 in final 3 games to finish 3-5
ISU - 1-2 in final 3 games to finish 3-5
kansas - 1-3 in final 4 games to reach 2-6
Colorado - 0-4 in final 4 games to reach 1-7

Now, obviously I hope that Colorado beats Nebraska as the only prediction I get wrong so that NU falls to 4-4 and Mizzou sneaks away with the North at 5-3.

2 - I'd say probably a 4.5. I'm not that concerned, this is about what I expected to get out of him this year. I wish he was progressing more, but I basically have to forgive the 2nd half of Nebraska, all of OSU and Texas because he was playing hurt. He needs to get his TD:INT ratio back under control over our last 4 games. If he finishes the year anywhere near 2:1 then I will be extremely pleased with his season.

3 - OU kills Nebraska to continue keeping Nebraska winless at home this year in the Big 12
kansas comes out motivated and plays their best offensive game of the year to escape Manhattan with a win
OSU steamrolls the plucky ISU bunch
aTm takes advantage of a deflated, unmotivated and bad Colorado team
Texas scores their zip code on the Golden Knights

Missouri 34, Baylor 17

4 - Oh man, see I don't consider Starship Troopers a bad movie. It's not great by any stretch, but I like that movie. Bloodsport, Kickboxer and Best of the Best are definitely guilty pleasure movies that are just so horrible but I will watch them almost every time I find them on TBS or TNT or whatever channel is showing them.

My addition to the list has to be the entire Steven Segal library. Most specifically, Under Siege 2. If for no other reason, it gave us a 17-year old Katherine Heigl.

ghtd36: Roundtable'd!

1 - If I were to put it to percentages, I'd say that Nebraska has about a 60% chance of winning the North (schedule is favorable and having that win over Mizzou is GIGANTIC right now), followed by Mizzou at about 20%, followed by K-State at 10%, Kansas at 5%, Iowa State at 5% and Colorado at LOL%.

2 - On a scale of 1-10, how concerned are you about your team's QB right now? (I'm curious about how you feel about Gabbert, but really I'm just curious how Doug feels about Todd Reesing right now.)

About a 3. Fire up the flux capacitor and ask me a week ago, and I'd say 5. But his game at Colorado actually put me more at ease because he was more at ease. He wasn't forcing anything, and he just looked like a poised quarterback. Yeah, his INTs have become a bit of a problem, but I keep thinking that he's here for two more season after this (OK, at least one more season) and know that he can be an elite Big XII QB. It's a nice feeling. Still, I wish he'd keep his ankle in a vault at night.

3 - Oklahoma at Nebraska -- Oklahoma. Bo Knows Being Overvalued After Winning A Game In The Rain.

Kansas at Kansas State -- Kansas. I just can't shake the feeling that the more purely talented team will finally play up to its capability.

Oklahoma State at Iowa State -- Oklahoma State. I know, it's fashionable to pick Iowa State, but are we really going to pick Austen Arnaud in a big game?

Texas A&M at Colorado -- Texas A&M, though at this point, Colorado could be playing the Washington Generals and I'd seriously consider taking the Generals and the points.

Central Florida at Texas -- Central Florida in a stunner. Just kidding.

Baylor at Missouri -- Mizzou. If Hot Tub Griffin were playing, I'd be much more worried, but at home against a rookie QB (South Garland's own Nick Florence!!!!1111
1eleven!), I like the Tigers' chances.

4 - Easiest question ever.

ZouDave: man that's only like 8 years away!

(two hours later...)

RPT: So, Bill and I were both pretty high on Oregon before the season, leaving me to be extremely pissed off for getting burned after the Boise State debacle.

Now, EDSBS gives us this perfect visual representation of Oregon's season and the production of Jeremiah Masoli:

The Beef: And here I was just about to say how craptastic this roundtable had been to this point….

RPT: We should probably count our blessings. Look at what our friends at Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician are having to go through.

By the way, I can't recommend that site highly enough.

The Beef: Yeah…I get the whole early thing…but that is just brutal for a basketball team. I am sure ‘Cuse will finish 10th in the Big East and go on some ridiculous run to make the tourney, but that is a rough start.

(45 minutes later...)

ZouDave: there's bringing it strong, and then there's us.

(15 minutes later...)

The Beef: Boy howdy…

Michael Atchison: Has the guy whose name starts with r even gotten out of bed yet? I think we did hear from the guy whose name starts with g.

ghtd36: Maybe we should start each RMN Rountable saying that a bad Roundtable is a "lock", so that we know it won't come true.

The Beef: If that had been the case, we would not have disappointed. Hell, has Bill even answered his own damn questions at this point?

RPT: You know who is to fault for this crappy roundtable? Nick Florence.

SCREW YOU NICK FLORENCE!

(/totally trying to drum up Baylor hate)

ghtd36: I heard Nick Florence stole the entire state of Missouri!

RPT: More!

Nick Florence whines about fan cans.
Nick Florence thought Kendial Lawrence was mediocre in high school.
Nick Florence disrespected ZouDave's sister.
Nick Florence approved the sale of AB to InBev
Nick Florence thought highly of the structural integrity of the New Orleans levees in 2005
Nick Florence listens to Creed
Nick Florence scoffs at The Beef's tailgating prowess.
Nick Florence thinks Asian Kid is a stupid meme.

Week 10: Oklahoma State Week Links and Thoughts

Mark Kieffer — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 02:07:43 -0000

After the performance in College Station, I get the feeling that a lot of ISU fans are disappointed. The best way to get over it is to move on and start looking towards the next opponent, in this case the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

The new depth chart was released yesterday. The biggest change is the RB situation. Bo Williams is now listed as the #2, and Beau Blankenship is listed as the #3. Schwartz is not listed on the chart this week. So many questions have been asked about Bo, and after seeing action last week, breaking off a 44 yard run on his first ever carry, perhaps he's earned some clock. He's been an interesting story this year as people have gone the "secret weapon" angle with him, and hisi debut will add to the legend of Bo Williams.
Austen Arnaud, Alexander Robinson, and Reggie Stephens are all expected to play. Robinson looked healthy (watched the Cyclone Replay), so that's no surprise. I'm still not 100% sure on Arnaud. His injury is definitley worse than originally reported, and he's going to need to have confidence in gripping the ball in order to play. I think if we're going to give the Cowboys a game, he needs to be in and healthy. He's more decisive, can run with more authority, and he's just more comfortable than Tiller is. With Stephens, it's great to have him back for sure; he's a great player. I thought that our O-Line did a great job last week in his absence, however.
Oklahoma State is currently a 7-7.5 point favorite. I'll look at their strengths and weaknesses more in the next day or two as I work on the preview, but at first glance, I think it's a little low. I'll post more on it as I do more research.
Iowa State's Week 11 matchup against Colorado will kickoff at 1pm, and will not be televised. A little dissapointing, as ISU will either be trying to get bowl eligible, or trying to lock in on a bowl berth. Either way, probably the biggest home game in the past 5 years or so, and Cyclone fans will have to get to Jack Trice to see it. I have my ticket and am looking forward to it!
Curious about the payout a team gets for being on TV? The Cyclones will get $301,000 for being on ABC, as opposed to the $175,000 if it were to air on Versus (compared to $0 if not on TV at all). You can already figure the dollars and cents, and how much at a disadvantage ISU can have at times, as being on ABC is a big deal, and happens once every once in a while.

That's the news, and my thoughts about it at the moment. I am hosting the Big 12 Roundtable this week, so look for that on Friday or so. Also, I will do a preview for Oklahoma State, and plan on posting either on Thursday or Friday as well, so that's another thing to look for as well, along with the beginning of basketball coverage as well. Busy indeed, but a lot of fun to be able to get to many of these games, and being around the athletic program as they are looking to be on the way up after these past 3-4 years!

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.