SB Nation - Michael Brandtner

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Big 12 North Roulette Edition Recap

RPT — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:15:18 -0000

his week's SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable Recap takes a look at some of the different thoughts expressed around the Big 12 blogosphere. This week's participants included Double T Nation, I Am The 12th Man, Clone Chronicles, a power rankings submission from Rock M Nation, Corn Nation, and Bring On The Cats.

1. This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

It's a small sample size, but the group seems to agree that Texas would be beatable in this scenario. BracketCat of Bring On The Cats actually went through and created a two-deep for a North all-star team.

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

2. Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

Taking my phrasing of using the word "handicapping," Mark from Clone Chronicles breaks it down into odds:

K-State: I think they win 1 more game at the most, but I could see them lose out. How funny/sick would it be if they went 4-4, had a share of the Big 12 North lead, yet were not bowl eligible? Remember, they played 2 FCS teams, so they need to get to 7 wins, not 6. I think they finish either 3-5 or 4-4. I'd put a 5% chance on them winning the North.

Iowa State: It all depends on how healthy they are. I look at their schedule and see a small chance at 4-0, decent shot at 3-1, but most likely going 2-2. That would put them at 4-4 in the conference as well. Due to tiebreakers, Iowa State could get to 4-4 with losses to Kansas, K-State, and Missouri, which would put them out of it.. I think they would have to win out to win the North, so I'd put a 5% chance on them winning it as well.

Kansas: I think they lose @ Tech and @ Texas for sure. That puts them best case at 4-4. Losing to Colorado doesn't hurt them too much in tiebreakers if they beat Nebraska, K-State, and Missouri. I'd give them a 35% chance of winning the North.

Nebraska: I would not want to be a Nebraska fan right now. If their offense plays like it has the past two weeks, they win 1 or 2 more games max (@ Baylor and either K-State or @ Colorado). If they can figure out whatever their problem is, all of their games are winnable except for Oklahoma. I think they beat Baylor and Colorado. K-State is a tossup right now. I think Kansas is a loss, if the Jayhawks offense gets going. I think they can get to 4-4, but I could be talked into 3-5 pretty easily. I'd give them a 15% chance of winning the North.

Missouri: Easiest schedule down the stretch: @ Colorado, Baylor, @ K-State, Iowa State, and Kansas (at Arrowhead). Can you find 4 wins from that group? I can. They could even rip off a 5 game winning streak and take this thing. I'd be interesting if Iowa State was at 4-3 and Missouri was at 3-3 the week they played. Since I think they have the only chance to realistically win 5 games, they are my favorite at this point. I give them a 40% chance to win it. Truth be told, if they can win 4 games including Kansas, I think they would win the tie-breakers. They can win 5 of these games, likely will win 3-4, but even at 4, they have a chance to win the North.

Colorado: I think they probably lose out, sorry Ralphie. 0% chance of winning the North this year.

3. Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

Skin Patrol of Double T Nation still believes in Oklahoma, though not without a few good-natured barbs.

Er... well they beat Kansas, which means Oklahoma and Colorado have that in common now, I suppose. Cynicism aside, Vegas is still ruthlessly behind Oklahoma, and wise man say: When sinners are behind Sooners, general public should be too. OU politicking aside, the reality is that they've lost to some pretty good teams by some pretty slim margins, and are probably one of the better 4-3 teams in the country. A good rule of thumb for a team as talented and well-coached as Oklahoma is that if it looks dead, it's probably just sleeping.

4. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

Husker Mike of Corn Nation unofficially creates the "WTF" category for wins, a category that may or may not include at least 20 games at this point.

Taylor Potts will be transferring from Texas Tech at the end of the season? We knew A&M was bad, and Tech can be pretty good. But A&M's victory in Lubbock defies logic, unless you throw Potts under the bus. I think you've got to throw the A&M victory into the WTF category as the anomaly for now until A&M proves their mettle again. (Hell, even Colorado has managed to win a couple of games this season...)

5. Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

We are shocked -- shocked -- to learn that Beergut of I Am The 12th Man doesn't believe Texas found its mojo.

No, texas didn't find its mojo, they simply played a team that is tanking right now in Missouri. Missouri's leader is their QB, Blaine Gabbert, and with Gabbert injured right now, their offense is struggling. With no offense to lead them, they were sitting ducks for texas' defense. Missouri's defense is nothing to write home about outside of Sean Weatherspoon, so texas' offense looked better than they really are against them.

I do think texas will beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater, and I don't even think it will be close. OSU doesn't believe they can beat texas, and that mental edge will help texas. I do look forward to watching Joe Wickline's offensive line go up against texas' DL. If Oklahoma State can run the ball, they will make it a game, but I don't think that will happen.

6. Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

Noteworthy: Double T Nation abstained from voting.

1. Texas -- unanimous decision at the top
2. Oklahoma State -- edges out No. 3
3. Oklahoma -- just narrowly misses out sitting at No. 2
4. Texas Tech -- voters appear to think the A&M game was an aberration
5. Kansas State -- Huge variation for the Cats, who varied from No. 4 to No. 10
6. Nebraska -- That defense is top three. That offense is bottom three.
T7. Kansas -- 'Hawks vary between No. 4 and No. 11 on individual ballots
T7. Iowa State -- The Clones are starting to feel the love
9. Missouri -- Tigers in desperate need of a win after rough stretch to open Big 12 play
10. Texas A&M -- Further proof of the lack of trust in the Tech/A&M result
11. Colorado -- Didn't get voted any higher than No. 10
12. Baylor -- Fare thee well, Hot Tub Griffin

The Fog of '09 - North Defenses

Bill C. — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:00:04 -0000

Yesterday, it was North Offenses. Today, North Defenses.

Defensive Lines

Nebraska (DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Pierre Allen)
Kansas (DE Jake Laptad, DT Richard Johnson, DT Caleb Blakesley)
Missouri (DT Jaron Baston, DE Brian Coulter, DE Jacquies Smith)
Kansas State (DE Brandon Harold, DT Daniel Calvin)
Iowa State (DE Rashawn Parker, DT Nate Frere)
Colorado (DE Jason Brace, ?)

That's right, Ndamukong Suh still has eligibility left--feels like he's been having an up-and-down season for Nebraska since about 2003--and he and Pierre Allen should make a pretty solid DL for the Huskers. KU returns a decent amount, and while their unit will be far from spectacular, it will be steady and reliable. Missouri has a lot of potential at DE with Coulter and Smith, but they still have to replace a lot of career starts.

Linebackers

Missouri (Sean Weatherspoon--for now, Luke Lambert)
Nebraska (Phil Dillard, Blake Lawrence)
Colorado (Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler)
Iowa State (Jesse Smith, Fred Garrin, Cameron Bell)
Kansas State (Olu Hall, Ulla Pomele)
Kansas (?)

I think Sean Weatherspoon will return, but I could be wrong. If he doesn't...well, MU probably doesn't fall very far because NOBODY will have tremendous LBs in 2009. Jeff Smart is solid, but that's really all CU has. Smith and Garrin have had their moments at ISU, but...yeah, they're still only average. NU returns Phil Dillard and some youngsters with potential, and if 'Spoon is in the NFL in 2009, that should give NU the best unit.

Defensive Backs

Kansas State (CB Joshua Moore, CB Blair Irvin, S Courtney Herndon)
Iowa State (CB Leonard Johnson, S James Smith)
Nebraska (S Rickey Thenarse, S Larry Asante)
Kansas (CB/S Chris Harris, S Darrell Stuckey, CB Daymond Patterson)
Missouri (CB Carl Gettis, S Kenji Jackson)
Colorado (CB Cha'pelle Brown, ?)

Oy. If there's one reason why North offenses should still be pretty successful in 2009, it's because nobody in the North returns a quality secondary. I'm probably underrating the Missouri secondary here--Iowa State game aside, Castine Bridges hasn't been anything special in '08, and there won't be a huge dropoff to Kevin Rutland or one of the RSFrs. Meanwhile, Missouri fans are loving them some Kenji Jackson. But only Carl Gettis will be proven.

Also, I might be overrating Iowa State, but I love me some Leonard Johnson.

North Defenses, 2009

Nebraska (15)
Missouri (12)
Kansas State (11)
Iowa State (10)
Kansas (9)
Colorado (6)

As with the offenses, each North defense will have its strengths and weaknesses...but not a lot of strengths. Nebraska scores the best, and they're returning only about six starters. Missouri loses William Moore and most of its D-line, and they still might have the best North defense. Iowa State's D was brutal in '08, and they actually score pretty well here. Big-time tossup. A lot will come down to matchups and schedules...so after we look at special teams, we'll look at that.

Special Teams

Iowa State (K Grant Mahoney, P Mike Brandtner, KR/PR's Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell)
Nebraska (K Alex Henery, KR/PR Niles Paul)
Colorado (KR/PR Josh Smith, P Matt DiLallo, K Aric Goodman)
Kansas State (KR/PR Deon Murphy, P George Pierson)
Missouri (P Jake Harry, K Tanner Mills)
Kansas (PR Daymond Patterson, K Jacob Branstetter, P Alonso Rojas)

Honestly, only ISU has a relatively complete special teams unit. I'm optimistic that Missouri's return game will still be decent with Gahn McGaffie or whoever ends up back there, but that's me projecting greatness on newcomers...so for now they're stuck low on the list. Colorado has a solid return man in Smith, but no kickers. KSU has a solid return man in Murphy, but no kickers. Kansas...yeah, same.

Coaches

Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

Mizzou could lose either or both coordinators, but I think this is where continuity pays off--the guys under the coordinators (Yost, Hill, Steckel, etc.) basically share the same brain as Eberflus and Christensen, so I'm not tremendously worried about losing the OC and DC. Then again, I'm a homer. KU took a lengthy step backwards after losing last year's DC, so who knows? All I know is this: in the last two years, Gary Pinkel has blown up the "Pinkel Effect". It no longer exists

So if we're going to add together all my admittedly arbitrary unit rankings (offense, defense, special teams, coaching), we end up with these standings.

2009 North Rankings

Missouri (40 points)
Nebraska (39)
Kansas (33)
Kansas State (30)
Iowa State (25)
Colorado (22)

Very loosely, there's a top tier (MU, NU, KU) and a bottom tier (KSU, ISU, CU). And obviously, there are question marks here. Is QB worth more than the other units? Then KU gets a bump up. Is there a "continuity of personnel" factor that will hurt Missouri (and possibly Nebraska)? Am I understating Colorado's potential with their solid recruiting classes? But we'll go with this for now.

-- Schedules --

Colorado

10/10 - at Texas
10/17 - Kansas
10/24 - at Kansas State
10/31 - Missouri
11/7 - Texas A&M
11/14 - at Iowa State
11/21 - at Oklahoma State
11/28 - Nebraska

South schedule: @ UT, @ OSU, ATM. That screams "1-2."

North home slate: KU, MU, NU. That's a good slate to have next year. I obviously don't expect much out of Colorado in '09, but they'll most likely go at least 1-2 in those games. I guess I'll say they beat KU, since KU's the lowest-ranked of the three.

North road slate: @ KSU, @ ISU. Not a good slate to have next year. Getting KSU and ISU at home would probably mean two wins, but on the road is a different story.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6

Iowa State

10/3 - vs Kansas State (at Arrowhead)
10/10 - at Kansas
10/17 - Baylor
10/24 - at Nebraska
10/31 - at Texas A&M
11/7 - Oklahoma State
11/14 - Colorado
11/21 - at Missouri

South schedule: BU, @ ATM, OSU. If ISU's defense takes a step forward, then they'll probably beat Baylor and at least have a chance against ATM. Even though Baylor will be pretty decent next year, I'll say ISU wins that game and goes 1-2.

North home slate: CU. They lose the KSU game to Arrowhead. The ISU-KSU could very well be a "winner goes 6-6 and slips into a bowl" situation, and as you see, they could be pretty evenly-matched. For no reason whatsoever, I say ISU goes 2-2 in these games.

North road slate: @ KU, @ NU, @ MU. Ouch. 0-3.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5

Kansas

10/10 - Iowa State
10/17 - at Colorado
10/24 - Oklahoma
10/31 - at Texas Tech
11/7 - at Kansas State
11/14 - Nebraska
11/21 - at Texas
11/28 - vs Missouri (still at Arrowhead, right?)

South schedule: OU, @ Tech, @ UT. I really hope KU fans enjoyed 2007. 0-3.

North home slate: ISU, NU, vs Mizzou. Assuming KU-MU is once again at Arrowhead, this once again hurts KU. Instead of getting both NU and MU at home, they get one on a neutral field. I say they beat ISU and NU, and naturally (ahem) lose to MU. 2-1.

North road slate: @ CU, @ KSU. They're not losing both of these, and since I already have them losing to CU, I guess that means they beat KSU. 1-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5. It's amazing what scheduling can do.

Kansas State

10/3 - at Iowa State
10/10 - at Texas Tech
10/17 - Texas A&M
10/24 - Colorado
10/31 - at Oklahoma
11/7 - Kansas
11/14 - Missouri
11/21 - at Nebraska

South schedule: @ Tech, ATM, @ OU. ATM is a big game, but I say KSU wins it. 1-2.

North home slate: CU, KU, MU. It would not at all surprise me to see a young Mizzou team slip up on the road, so we'll arbitrarily say it happens in Manhattan. That makes KSU 2-1 here.

North road slate: vs ISU, @ NU. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5.

Missouri

10/3 - Nebraska
10/17 - at Oklahoma State
10/24 - Texas
10/31 - at Colorado
11/7 - Baylor
11/14 - at Kansas State
11/21 - Iowa State
11/28 - vs Kansas

South schedule: @ OSU, UT, BU. Gotta figure that's 1-2, though obviously Baylor will not be a pushover.

North home slate: NU, ISU. The NU game will be ha-yoooge. But tie goes to the home team, right? 2-0.

North road slate: vs KU, @ CU, @ KSU. Beat KU and CU, randomly lose to KSU. 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 5-3.

Nebraska

10/3 - at Missouri
10/17 - Texas Tech
10/24 - Iowa State
10/31 - at Baylor
11/7 - Oklahoma
11/14 - at Kansas
11/21 - Kansas State
11/28 - at Colorado

South schedule: TT, @ BU, OU. Hmm. No to BU and OU, but I think they'll take out Tech. 1-2.

North home slate: ISU, KSU. 2-0.

North road slate: @ MU, @ KU, @ CU. We'll say 1-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 4-4.

Standings

Missouri 5-3
Nebraska 4-4
Kansas 3-5 (brutal schedule)
Kansas State 3-5
Iowa State 3-5
Colorado 2-6

Summary

It won't surprise me if the preseason mags pick KU (because of Reesing) or NU (because they're Nebraska) to win the North, and with the loss of Daniel, Maclin, Coffman, etc., it would very much surprise me to see anybody actually picking Mizzou. But although I may be overrating Mizzou in the rankings, there's no question that getting NU at home and KU in KC gives them the scheduling advantage here. In a three-team North race, it could come down to home-field advantage, and there's now no question in my mind that a third straight division title, if not a gimme by any means, is within reach, even in a rebuilding year.

But don't hold me to any of that.

Mizzou-ISU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 19:00:05 -0000

Alright, as with last week's piece, I'll start with KSU-MU analysis, then drop in all of last week's Big 12 BTBS box scores...and as always, the most interesting stuff is bolded...

Mizzou (52)		Iowa St. (20)
	% Close = 35.5%
46.6%	Field Position %	53.4%
76.6%	Leverage %	67.5%

	TOTAL
64	Plays	77
37.04	EqPts	25.81
62.5%	Success Rate	45.5%
0.58	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.34
1.204	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.790

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
36	Plays	14
16.52	EqPts	2.94
52.8%	Success Rate	35.7%
0.46	PPP	0.21
0.987	S&P	0.567

	RUSHING
15.57	EqPts	4.46
65.2%	Success Rate	39.1%
0.68	PPP	0.19
1.329	S&P	0.585
2.90	Line Yards/carry	3.06

	PASSING
21.47	EqPts	21.34
61.0%	Success Rate	48.2%
0.52	PPP	0.40
1.133	S&P	0.877

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
63.3%	Success Rate	46.2%
0.63	PPP	0.24
1.264	S&P	0.706

	PASSING DOWNS
60.0%	Success Rate	44.0%
0.41	PPP	0.52
1.008	S&P	0.963

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	2
6.39	Points Lost	6.06
1.82	Points Given	8.31
8.21	Total T/O Pts	14.37
+6.16	Turnover Pts Margin	-6.16

0.915	Q1 S&P	0.839
1.245	Q2 S&P	0.704
1.251	Q3 S&P	0.766
1.645	Q4 S&P	0.896

0.787	1st Down S&P	0.649
1.281	2nd Down S&P	1.024
2.265	3rd Down S&P	0.840

The yardage ended up being pretty close between the two teams (Mizzou 479, Iowa State 444), but all that truly matters is close-game stats, and Mizzou dominated here.
After last year's performance, I was wary of the day Alexander Robinson might have against Mizzou, but the Mizzou front seven was up for the challenge. Aside from one nice run by Robinson that got them out of the shadow of their goalline (okay, there were no shadows...it was at night) and a couple shifty runs by Austen Arnaud, there was nothing here for the Cyclones. Mizzou's rushing PPP was almost four times higher than ISU's.
For the first time in a while, Mizzou's S&P on Passing Downs crept back over the 1.000 mark. Good to see. We'll need all the Passing Downs success we can find in our two trips to Arrowhead.
ISU's success on third downs and Passing Downs was unacceptably high, but...I feel comfortable in saying that anytime Mizzou manages a 2.265 S&P on third downs (remember: anything over about 0.900 or 0.950 is a good S&P), they're going to win no matter what their defense does.
It was also nice to see Mizzou's offense continue to get into more and more of a rhythm with each passing quarter--their S&P improved each 15 minutes.

And now, a review of last week's "key players"...

Key Players: Iowa State

RB Alexander Robinson

Despite a nice 38-yard run in the 3rd quarter, Robinson was a non-factor. He touched the ball 15 times and managed just a 27% success rate and 0.459 S&P. Mizzou was on him immediately every time he touched the ball.

WR RJ Sumrall

Six catches, 24 yards, 1.10 EqPts. Awful. The Carl Gettis Treatment strikes again.

I should mention, though, just how effective Iowa State's tight ends were in this game. Derrick Catlett and Collin Franklin combined for 8 catches and 8.08 EqPts in sustaining what was a pretty decent ISU passing attack, at least after the score was within a comfortable arm's length for Missouri.

LB Fred Garrin

Garrin had, by all means, a decent game, with 6.5 tackles and 1 TFL. But he was needed in the turnover game, and came up empty there. I also mentioned Leonard Johnson as the other potential turnover candidate, and he came through with a fumble recovery and an INT that was called back due to a roughing penalty. He was solid all game, but it obviously wasn't nearly enough.

P Mike Brandtner

The fact that Brandtner punted only once should have been an encouraging thing for ISU, but the two turnovers and three failed fourth-down conversions killed ISU.

Key Players: Mizzou

QB Chase Daniel

Professor Chaos returned to his "automatic on third downs" ways Saturday. Mizzou was iffy on first downs all night, but 8-for-10 on third downs will win you a lot of games, as will completing your first 16 passes of the night. Chase found a reliable target in Andrew Jones, and after struggling a bit without Chase Coffman against KSU, the Mizzou offense was clicking on all cylinders. That's the upside about injuries to key players--as long as they're not season-long, and as long as they don't cost you in big games (as Coffman's injury did in the Big 12 title game last year), they get other guys some big minutes...and when the injured guy comes back, you've got even more weapons at your disposal.

RB Derrick Washington

He didn't come close to the 20 touches I requested, but in only 13 touches, he managed 151 yards and 2 TDs and led Mizzou with 11.52 EqPts. Efficiency, explosiveness, et cetera. Aside from the fumble he almost lost, this was a darn near perfect game from D-Wash.

FS William Moore

BINGO. Keep calling Willy Mo out, and eventually he'll come through with a big game. Four tackles, some hard hitting...oh yeah, and his fourth career pick six, one that basically put the game out of reach midway through the second quarter.

P Jake Harry

Jake Harry? Who the hell is Jake Harry?

MU-ISU Summary

North Champions once again. To quote our esteemed coach, "That's awesome." In all, this has worked out pretty nicely for Mizzou. The North title was clinched pretty easily, nobody else got hurt, Chase Coffman has a bye week to get healthy, and in theory Mizzou should head into Arrowhead with a clear head and healthy bodies, ready to culminate Hate Week(s) with a comfortable victory over a to-date lesser team. That's awesome.

Other Big 12 Games

Texas (35)		Kansas (7)
	% Close = 66.7%
52.9%	Field Position %	47.1%
70.0%	Leverage %	68.9%

	TOTAL
70	Plays	74
29.90	EqPts	13.88
47.1%	Success Rate	40.5%
0.43	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.19
0.899	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.593

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
59	Plays	37
22.58	EqPts	4.39
44.1%	Success Rate	37.8%
0.38	PPP	0.12
0.823	S&P	0.497

	RUSHING
12.25	EqPts	3.42
40.0%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.35	PPP	0.17
0.750	S&P	0.671
2.63	Line Yards/carry	3.02

	PASSING
17.65	EqPts	10.46
54.3%	Success Rate	37.0%
0.50	PPP	0.19
1.047	S&P	0.564

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
51.0%	Success Rate	39.2%
0.35	PPP	0.11
0.857	S&P	0.507

	PASSING DOWNS
38.1%	Success Rate	43.5%
0.62	PPP	0.35
0.997	S&P	0.784

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	2
1.84	Points Lost	3.12
2.29	Points Given	5.70
4.13	Total T/O Pts	8.82
+4.69	Turnover Pts Margin	-4.69

0.841	Q1 S&P	0.538
0.627	Q2 S&P	0.454
1.191	Q3 S&P	0.688
0.870	Q4 S&P	0.647

0.864	1st Down S&P	0.585
1.023	2nd Down S&P	0.679
0.789	3rd Down S&P	0.544

UT's offense really wasn't clicking during this game, third quarter aside. However, despite the limitations of a less-than-100% healthy Brian Orakpo, the Texas defense had KU disheveled and discombobulated all morning and afternoon. Dezmon Briscoe's acrobatic catch aside, KU had no semblance of a downfield threat against UT's speed, and it made the difference in the game.
And despite decent blocking up front, KU's RBs just didn't have enough speed to get by UT's front seven.
A 0.507 S&P is pretty bad on Passing Downs. That was KU's performance on Non-Passing Downs. That's horrendous. And it negates what was actually a decent performance by KU on Passing Downs (0.784).
Meanwhile, Texas continues to lead the country in Passing Downs success. For the season, they're actually averaging a higher S&P on Passing Downs than Non-Passing Downs. They're the only team in the country who can say that, though that disproportionality was one of the things that bit them in the behind against Texas Tech.

Nebraska (56)		K-State (28)
	% Close = 58.1%
86.4%	Field Position %	13.6%
78.2%	Leverage %	63.8%

	TOTAL
78	Plays	58
46.85	EqPts	14.73
57.7%	Success Rate	27.6%
0.60	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.25
1.178	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.530

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
56	Plays	23
36.65	EqPts	5.87
60.7%	Success Rate	21.7%
0.65	PPP	0.26
1.262	S&P	0.473

	RUSHING
31.29	EqPts	5.28
59.6%	Success Rate	32.1%
0.60	PPP	0.19
1.198	S&P	0.510
3.60	Line Yards/carry	2.94

	PASSING
15.56	EqPts	9.45
53.9%	Success Rate	23.3%
0.60	PPP	0.32
1.137	S&P	0.548

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
62.3%	Success Rate	27.0%
0.54	PPP	0.21
1.168	S&P	0.481

	PASSING DOWNS
41.2%	Success Rate	28.6%
0.80	PPP	0.33
1.213	S&P	0.616

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	1
6.56	Points Lost	1.23
7.99	Points Given	3.33
14.55	Total T/O Pts	4.56
-9.99	Turnover Pts Margin	+9.99

1.262	Q1 S&P	0.347
1.124	Q2 S&P	0.619
0.932	Q3 S&P	0.947
1.355	Q4 S&P	0.214

0.950	1st Down S&P	0.559
1.322	2nd Down S&P	0.472
1.250	3rd Down S&P	0.514

Nebraska is the winner of the Most Dominant Performance of the Week competition, though playing K-State should probably disqualify you from the contest at this point.
How did this game stay within two possessions for 58% of the time despite NU's complete domination? Try a pick six early and a kick return TD late.
The three-headed Nebraska rushing attack has picked up steam in recent weeks, albeit against less than stellar rush defenses (OU game aside). Roy Helu Jr., Quentin Castille and Marlon Lucky have all had their moments, and at this point I'm going to say that Helu is the #2 RB in the North next year (behind our man D-Wash, of course).
Know how I said KU's 0.507 S&P on Non-Passing Downs was horrible? KSU's was 0.481.
If Ron Prince wanted to give his team the best chance to win, he'd have to seriously think about a QB platoon between a grayshirt (Carson Coffman) and the guy who was picked by some to be a 2009 1st Round draft pick (Josh Freeman). Just sayin'.
Just think where this game could have been if KSU hadn't won the turnover battle by 10 points!

OSU (30)		Colorado (17)
	% Close = 82.4%
53.7%	Field Position %	46.3%
76.2%	Leverage %	57.5%

	TOTAL
63	Plays	73
29.04	EqPts	17.04
49.2%	Success Rate	34.3%
0.46	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.23
0.953	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.576

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
59	Plays	53
28.97	EqPts	9.02
52.5%	Success Rate	35.9%
0.49	PPP	0.17
1.016	S&P	0.529

	RUSHING
17.12	EqPts	8.19
42.5%	Success Rate	42.4%
0.43	PPP	0.25
0.853	S&P	0.672
3.12	Line Yards/carry	2.58

	PASSING
11.92	EqPts	8.85
60.9%	Success Rate	27.5%
0.52	PPP	0.22
1.127	S&P	0.496

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
47.9%	Success Rate	38.1%
0.40	PPP	0.23
0.875	S&P	0.607

	PASSING DOWNS
53.3%	Success Rate	29.0%
0.67	PPP	0.24
1.201	S&P	0.534

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	1
1.23	Points Lost	1.63
4.13	Points Given	2.38
5.36	Total T/O Pts	4.01
-1.35	Turnover Pts Margin	+1.35

0.944	Q1 S&P	0.438
1.219	Q2 S&P	0.661
1.429	Q3 S&P	0.653
0.497	Q4 S&P	0.501

1.111	1st Down S&P	0.499
0.641	2nd Down S&P	0.593
0.987	3rd Down S&P	0.280

Really a ho-hum game here. OSU was never threatened by CU's offense, and their own offense made plays when it had to...and yet OSU only won by 13. OSU's rushing performance was a little below standard for them, but overall the 'Pokes won just about every category.
As far as I can tell, one of the things that kept CU as close as they were was a near-even field position battle. OSU was content to run the ball (40 rushes, just 23 passes) and grind out the win, and CU was able to pin them just far enough back that every drive didn't end up in FG range.

ATM (21)		Baylor (41)
	% Close = 54.0%
35.3%	Field Position %	64.7%
78.4%	Leverage %	72.0%

	TOTAL
51	Plays	75
19.98	EqPts	33.80
45.1%	Success Rate	44.0%
0.39	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.45
0.843	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.891

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
26	Plays	42
7.83	EqPts	21.69
42.3%	Success Rate	45.2%
0.30	PPP	0.52
0.724	S&P	0.969

	RUSHING
4.69	EqPts	17.84
47.4%	Success Rate	42.3%
0.25	PPP	0.34
0.721	S&P	0.766
3.22	Line Yards/carry	2.43

	PASSING
15.29	EqPts	15.96
43.8%	Success Rate	47.8%
0.48	PPP	0.69
0.915	S&P	1.172

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
47.5%	Success Rate	42.6%
0.40	PPP	0.35
0.873	S&P	0.777

	PASSING DOWNS
36.4%	Success Rate	47.6%
0.37	PPP	0.71
0.732	S&P	1.184

	TURNOVERS
5	Number	0
11.65	Points Lost	0.00
11.18	Points Given	0.00
22.83	Total T/O Pts	0.00
-22.83	*Turnover Pts Margin*	+22.83

0.666	Q1 S&P	0.700
0.767	Q2 S&P	1.015
0.669	Q3 S&P	1.162
1.288	Q4 S&P	0.601

1.035	1st Down S&P	0.671
0.594	2nd Down S&P	0.776
0.462	3rd Down S&P	1.374

ATM is so lucky that the final score didn't end up much worse. And it was much worse...BU was up 41-7 when they took their foots of the gas in the fourth quarter. Repeat: Baylor was up 41-7. In a conference game.
Really, Baylor walked a fine line here--they were far from dominant in Non-Passing Downs situations...but they were as good as they've ever been on Passing Downs, and ATM's failure there doomed them.
Whereas Baylor got better on each progressive down, ATM got worse, and it forced them into situations with higher probabilities of turnovers.

Poll

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP against Iowa State?

Chase Daniel (21.47 Passing EqPts, 1.133 S&P, 8-for-10 3rd-down conversions)

15 votes

Derrick Washington (11.52 total EqPts, 2 TDs)

20 votes

Jeremy Maclin (9.44 total EqPts, 111 return yards, 1 TD)

9 votes

William Moore (his long-awaited 4th career pick six)

3 votes

Castine Bridges (12.5 tackles, 2 pass breakups, a big Q1 fourth down stop)

17 votes

Carl Gettis (for giving RJ Sumrall the Carl Gettis Treatment...and registering an INT of his own)

5 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 17:00:08 -0000

The basketball and all-sports talk has distracted us from this week's game, but I think the talk has been minimal for one other reason: the only way this game will be memorable is in a bad way. If we take care of business, none of us will remember this game a year from now. If we don't...yikes. Let's not think about that. Let's just go to the numbers.

Mizzou	Opp.		ISU	Opp.
55.3%		% Close	73.9%
56.3%	43.7%	Field Position %	53.0%	47.0%
79.7%	67.8%	Leverage %	64.3%	71.3%

		Total
669	749	Plays	698	668
355.37	239.77	EqPts	227.72	306.33
56.3%	41.8%	Success Rate	41.3%	49.0%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.33	0.46
1.094	0.738	S&P	0.739	0.948

		Close Games
417	367	Plays	495	514
212.27	116.90	EqPts	164.87	231.79
58.0%	43.1%	Success Rate	40.6%	47.9%
0.51	0.32	PPP	0.33	0.45
1.089	0.749	S&P	0.739	0.930

		Rushing
74.85	86.99	EqPts	74.76	126.61
53.3%	40.7%	Success Rate	39.4%	47.4%
0.45	0.26	PPP	0.31	0.36
0.987	0.664	S&P	0.706	0.834
3.15	2.71	Line Yds/carry	2.73	3.24

		Passing
225.38	152.78	EqPts	123.74	179.72
60.2%	42.7%	Success Rate	41.9%	50.6%
0.56	0.37	PPP	0.36	0.57
1.163	0.799	S&P	0.778	1.075
2.2%	6.1%	Sack Rate	4.3%	4.7%

		Non-Passing Downs
61.4%	47.2%	Success Rate	48.3%	53.2%
0.54	0.33	PPP	0.33	0.45
1.152	0.803	S&P	0.812	0.986
1.4%	4.7%	Sack Rate	4.0%	3.2%
48.0%	53.9%	Run Rate	57.0%	60.5%

		Passing Downs
40.0%	30.3%	Success Rate	26.8%	38.5%
0.41	0.30	PPP	0.36	0.47
0.814	0.602	S&P	0.632	0.855
4.0%	8.0%	Sack Rate	4.6%	7.0%
24.2%	27.0%	Run Rate	31.4%	33.3%

		Turnovers
15	17	Total	17	24
41.72	39.57	Points Lost	42.73	61.30
32.41	63.42	Points Given	39.47	63.66
74.13	102.99	Total T/O Pts	82.20	124.96
+28.86	-28.86	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	+42.76	-42.76

Thoughts after the jump...

One specific way ISU stays in this game and/or pulls it out: turnovers. Missouri has been more careless with the ball than usual over the last two games, and Gene Chizik's defense has actually been pretty strong at forcing turnovers. ISU has an all-or-nothing defense--they either make a big play or give up a big play (more of the latter than the former)--but that can still make your life uneasy in bad weather. In 2006, Missouri was a few plays away from breaking the game wide open in the first quarter until Tony Temple fumbled. That gave ISU's offense a breather until they could get that damn fullback Ryan Kock rolling, and we know what happened after that. Turnovers = the only way ISU can win this game.
Austen Arnaud actually does a pretty decent job of both getting rid of the ball quickly (low sack rate, even on Passing Downs) and not panicking and throwing bad INTs (only 6 picks in 302 passes). They trust him in this regard, as they actually throw quite a bit in Passing Down situations--they don't take the easy way out (a la Colorado) and run 40% of the time in Passing Downs. He's a mature presence in the pocket...he's just not all that good a presence in the pocket. He's not all that accurate, and his receivers aren't big-play threats (plus, even though he's decent in Passing Downs, the ISU offense still faces far too many Passing Downs), but ISU's offense won't beat itself. It's capable of dinking and dunking all the way down the field if you don't make a play.
Alexander Robinson has played well as of late, and considering how well he played last time he faced Mizzou, I'd actually expect a decent day out of him. He's much quicker than 19th-year senior Jason Scales, and he's ISU's biggest big-play threat.
In the turnover figures and the decent Passing Downs success rate, you can see hints of the aggressive defense Gene Chizik wants to play. But the personnel is simply not there. Junior Jesse Smith is a solid MLB (the least important position on the field for facing Missouri), DEs Christopher Lyle and Kurtis Taylor are solid pass rushers (they've combined for a respectable 9 sacks), WLB Fred Garrin is a nice playmaker (5 TFL, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 2 pass breakups), and Leonard Johnson (2 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 1 TFL, 3 pass breakups, 40 tackles) is a potentially great freshman CB. But none of these guys are rock-solid on every play--just occasionally--and that still leaves six positions on defense that aren't all that hot.
On Non-Passing Downs, basically every team Iowa State plays turns into the Missouri offense. A 53% success rate and 0.986 S&P are simply waaaaay too high. If he gets the carries (and if the weather's bad, he might), Derrick Washington could have a huge day.
Did I mention how huge turnovers are? Just checking.

On to the situational stats...

Mizzou	Opp.		ISU	Opp.
		Q1
57.9%	46.8%	Success Rate	41.9%	42.1%
0.56	0.28	PPP	0.36	0.36
1.137	0.747	S&P	0.782	0.783

		Q2
59.4%	39.9%	Success Rate	40.0%	55.6%
0.49	0.27	PPP	0.27	0.47
1.088	0.669	S&P	0.665	1.028

		Q3
55.6%	40.5%	Success Rate	41.5%	42.8%
0.54	0.37	PPP	0.31	0.48
1.096	0.771	S&P	0.725	0.909

		Q4
51.3%	40.5%	Success Rate	42.3%	54.8%
0.44	0.37	PPP	0.42	0.51
0.950	0.772	S&P	0.842	1.054

		1st Downs
58.2%	43.3%	Success Rate	45.6%	48.4%
0.55	0.33	PPP	0.34	0.43
1.130	0.764	S&P	0.796	0.912

		2nd Downs
57.2%	38.6%	Success Rate	38.9%	47.9%
0.47	0.31	PPP	0.33	0.44
1.039	0.700	S&P	0.716	0.922

		3rd Downs
50.9%	41.0%	Success Rate	34.3%	48.4%
0.51	0.28	PPP	0.35	0.50
1.015	0.694	S&P	0.697	0.982

Iowa State's defense is extra horrible in Q2 and Q4. That suggests that the game-planning and adjustments are there...but the talent and speed are not. Opponents are able to wear ISU down and make plays eventually.
ISU's offensive success rates are best on first down. If Mizzou allows Alexander Robinson to get some yards on first down, ISU could milk the clock and actually turn into a reasonably efficient offense. They still don't have any big playmakers, but Baylor was able to move the ball without too many big plays. The difference, of course, is that Mizzou was playing an umbrella defense to contain Hot Tub Griffin III. They'll likely be much more aggressive with a less mobile Arnaud in the backfield.
I reference this every week, I think, but the quarter-to-quarter and down-to-down consistency of the Missouri offense is impressive.
ISU probably won't move the ball in Q2. It's their worst offensive quarter, and it's the Mizzou defense's best quarter.

Key Players: Iowa State

RB Alexander Robinson

Two years ago, with a wind chill of 31 degrees, Iowa State played keep-away and punished Mizzou with a steady diet of the beefy Ryan Kock (32 carries, 179 yards). That, combined with the fact that about 18 Mizzou WRs/TEs got hurt that day and Chase Daniel was trying to lead a comeback throwing only to a sophomore Tommy Saunders and freshmen Danario Alexander and Jared Perry, all but sealed Missouri's fate*. At 5'10, 182 pounds, Robinson is quite clearly not built like Kock, but he had a great game against Missouri last year (21 carries, 149 yards--his success kept the game close and kept Pig Brown on the field late in Q4...when he injured his Achilles), and he's all-in-all a pretty solid sophomore running back. His 0.708 S&P isn't amazing, but a) it's improved in recent games, and b) it's infinitely better than Jason Scales' 0.654 or JJ Bass' 0.556. Scales is a more efficient back (40% success rate to Robinson's 38%), but barely. If ISU is going to successfully play keep-away again, it's on Robinson's shoulders.

* I will not mention the phantom hold. I will not mention the phantom hold. I will not mention the phantom hold.

WR RJ Sumrall

If Robinson isn't ISU's best chance at a big play, it's Sumrall, who like Scales, seems to have been at Iowa State for decades. His 0.912 PPP is by far the most explosive on the team (Sedrick Johnson's 0.763 is the only other one over 0.7...which is pretty bad). He's certainly experienced, and it's Senior Day, so it's quite possible Sumrall makes a big play or two in the passing game. If he doesn't, I can't see who will. Then again, he'll likely be getting the Carl Gettis Treatment, so maybe I should go with Johnson instead?

LB Fred Garrin

He and Leonard Johnson are as close to being a turnover machine as Gene Chizik has. If Mizzou has a costly turnover, chances are one of these two guys will be involved in it.

P Mike Brandtner

In a cold weather game, ISU has one other pathway to success: success in the field position battle. With wind a factor, he could (assuming he punts a lot--and he better) potentially pin Mizzou pretty deep in 2 of 4 quarters. What that will mean, among other things, is more opportunities for ISU's defense to hit Mizzou's skill position players and wear them out. You won't want to hit the ground too hard on Saturday--it's cold and hard--and if Mizzou starts their drives with long fields, they might score, but they might not have their legs about them as much later in the game.

Key Players: Missouri

QB Chase Daniel

It's easy, really. Chase rediscovers his mojo, Mizzou wins going away. He makes another few stupid throws, and ISU can make him pay, just like Baylor and Oklahoma State did (and just like KSU could have, had they had any sort of offensive success).

RB Derrick Washington

November's when Tony Temple started to turn it on during his career--a frigid, windy Jack Trice Stadium just screams "20-25 carries for Washington". If he goes "20 carries for 126 yards and 2-3 TDs," Mizzou wins easy. If it's more like "15 carries, 58 yards," then Chase will have to make a lot more windy throws.

FS William Moore

He's shown flashes of "Willy Mo '07" here and there, but the dude has cost himself some money with his play this year. He's only been solid, not amazing. But he's got 3-4 more games to remind Mizzou fans of what they thought they had in him for '08. He's still one of my favorite Mizzou players ever, but he's certainly had a disappointing season.

P Jake Harry

As always...the less we see of him, the bigger the winning margin. Love ya, Jake, but here's to hoping for another "1 punt, 41 yards" line from you.

Summary and Prediction

Monday's BTBS projections said Mizzou would take this one 39-23. Last week I combined the BTBS projections with the turnover averages and nailed the margin of victory...right up until Ron Prince pulled a Ron Prince and KSU got two junk TDs in the last two minutes. So we'll go with that. Taking what looks like about a 1-2 point ISU turnover advantage into account, we'll make that a nice and tidy 38-24 Mizzou win. With the wind and general misery of a Jack Trice Stadium encounter, this game could be closer than we'd like to think. I expect a closer game than a lot people, but I refuse to believe that Chase Daniel won't find a way to win this game, and probably comfortably. Mizzou clinches the North on Saturday.

Poll

What scares you most about MU-ISU?

RB Alexander Robinson

3 votes

ISU's ability to force turnovers

6 votes

BEWARE THE WINDS OF JACK TRICE STADIUM!!!

38 votes

Nothing

24 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Michael Brandtner

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Big 12 North Roulette Edition Recap

The Fog of '09 - North Defenses

Defensive Lines

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

North Defenses, 2009

Special Teams

Coaches

2009 North Rankings

-- Schedules --

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Missouri

Nebraska

Standings

Summary

Mizzou-ISU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou (52)

Iowa St. (20)

Key Players: Iowa State

Key Players: Mizzou

MU-ISU Summary

Other Big 12 Games

Texas (35)

Kansas (7)

Nebraska (56)

K-State (28)

OSU(30)

Colorado (17)

ATM(21)

Baylor (41)

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP against Iowa State?

Chase Daniel (21.47 Passing EqPts, 1.133 S&P, 8-for-10 3rd-down conversions)

Derrick Washington (11.52 total EqPts, 2 TDs)

Jeremy Maclin (9.44 total EqPts, 111 return yards, 1 TD)

William Moore (his long-awaited 4th career pick six)

Castine Bridges (12.5 tackles, 2 pass breakups, a big Q1 fourth down stop)

Carl Gettis (for giving RJ Sumrall the Carl Gettis Treatment...and registering an INT of his own)

Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Mizzou

Opp.

ISU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

ISU

Opp.

Key Players: Iowa State

Key Players: Missouri

Summary and Prediction

What scares you most about MU-ISU?

RB Alexander Robinson

ISU's ability to force turnovers

BEWARE THE WINDS OF JACK TRICE STADIUM!!!

Nothing

OSU
(30)

ATM
(21)