SB Nation - Alexander Robinson

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:00:14 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Be sure to check out the Healthy Blaine vs Gimpy Blaine comparison after the jump.

	Iowa St. (24)	Mizzou (34)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	44.1%	52.5%
Leverage %	69.1%	82.5%

TOTAL
EqPts	20.7	31.7
Close Success Rate	48.5%	57.5%
Close PPP	0.30	0.40
Close S&P	0.790	0.971

RUSHING
EqPts	6.6	13.2
Close Success Rate	50.0%	56.3%
Close PPP	0.28	0.28
Close S&P	0.776	0.838
Line Yards/carry	3.14	3.07

PASSING
EqPts	14.1	18.4
Close Success Rate	47.7%	59.4%
Close PPP	0.32	0.58
Close S&P	0.797	1.170
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 15.8%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	55.3%	60.6%
PPP	0.29	0.46
S&P	0.842	1.064

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	33.3%	42.9%
PPP	0.34	0.11
S&P	0.673	0.534

TURNOVERS
Number	2	1
Turnover Pts	6.7	3.6
Turnover Pts Margin	-3.1	+3.1

Q1 S&P	1.002	0.924
Q2 S&P	0.887	0.682
Q3 S&P	0.725	1.515
Q4 S&P	0.348	0.819

1st Down S&P	0.782	1.262
2nd Down S&P	1.042	0.810
3rd Down S&P	0.294	0.565

Projected Pt. Margin	-14.1	+14.1
Actual Pt. Margin	-10	+10

Quick reactions...

Obviously very nice offensive output for Mizzou, though with an 82.5% Leverage Rate (which means that 82.5% of Mizzou's offensive plays were run on Standard Downs and only 17.5% on Passing Downs) you'd have almost expected more success. Then again, Mizzou was quite unsuccessful on those Passing Downs, as they have been all year. Which, really, is pretty healthy. Passing Downs success comes with experience, and while Mizzou has shown on Standard Downs that they are plenty talented and athletic, they don't yet have the chops for Passing Downs. It'll come.
That said, Mizzou did have a 42.9% success rate on Passing Downs, which was pretty good; in fact, I'd say that while PPP is probably more important on Standard Downs, success rate is more important on Passing Downs, and Mizzou showed some nice progress in that regard.
Gotta say, ISU's rushing success rate was higher than I expected. It really didn't feel like the Cyclones ever really got going on the ground, as evidenced by Alexander Robinson's 14 carries for 56 yards (4.0 per carry), but they were just efficient enough to keep them moving forward, and they were able to utilize the shorter passes because they had fewer yards to go to move the chains. Of course, ISU's offensive output got worse with every passing quarter, so it only worked for so long.
As demonstrated in last week's preview, Iowa State potentially has the best offensive line in the North division, and Mizzou held up relatively well. ISU did average a strong 3.14 line yards per carry, and Austen Arnaud was never sacked on Standard Downs, but Mizzou's three Passing Downs sacks were drive-killers and potentially made the difference in the game.
I also said in last week's preview that ISU's pass rush was so weak that any sack allowed would be too many. Well...0 is a pretty good number, no? That's two straight weeks where Mizzou faced a weaker pass rush but didn't slip up even once.

Healthy Blaine vs Gimpy Blaine

The difference between Blaine Gabbert's one-legged production and two-legged production is simply staggering at this point.

Healthy Blaine
Stats: 182-for-278 passing, 2,487 yards, 21 TD, 2 INT; 63 carries, 156 yards, 2 TD
Rates: 65.5% completion rate, 8.9 yards per pass, 7.6% TD rate, 0.7% INT rate; 2.5 yards per carry

Injured Blaine:
Stats: 42-for-95 passing, 512 yards, 1 TD, 5 INT; 14 carries, -22 yards, 1 TD
Rates: 44.2% completion rate, 5.4 yards per pass, 1.1% TD rate, 5.3% INT rate; -1.6 yards per carry

Just a simply insane difference, even in the rushing stats.

But there's an obvious disclaimer here: Mizzou faced the Nebraska and Texas defenses while injured, and his stats wouldn't have been as good in those games even if healthy. So the question for today is, what would he have produced against Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas if healthy?

Thanks to the "+" measures, we can create a pretty good estimate. To do so, we're going to look at one specific measure: Passing PPP+, or EqPts per Pass. As you know, EqPts create an estimated point value for every play (and the "+" is the schedule adjustment), so if we can determine what Mizzou's PPP+ was for Healthy Blaine and Injured Blaine, we can estimate what Missouri may have produced if Injured Blaine never happened. (And we're keeping rushing stats out of the equation to keep things simple.)

Passing PPP+, Healthy Blaine: 149.4
Passing PPP+, Injured Blaine: 92.1

So even taking opponent strength into account, Injured Blaine produced 62% of what Healthy Blaine produced, which is just a tremendous drop-off. So if we take the Healthy Blaine PPP+ and apply it to the passes thrown by Injured Blaine, you get the following added production (assuming the exact same number of passes were thrown against NU/OSU/UT, which of course is a faulty premise, but it's what we've got):

vs Nebraska: +2.0 Passing EqPts (the rain was going to wipe out a good portion of the passing attack regardless)
vs Oklahoma State: +7.7 Passing EqPts
vs Texas: +2.6 Passing EqPts

That's an addition of 12.3 EqPts, or almost two touchdowns. Who knows if the timing of those points would have changed the outcome of either the NU or OSU games, but that's not the point of this exercise. Taking some super-rough estimates into account, here's a guess at what Gabbert might have produced in the 95 Injured Blaine passes if healthy:

58-for-95 passing, 810 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT

Which means we'd be looking at a season line of this:

Blaine Gabbert, New 2009
Stats: 240-for-373 passing, 3,307 yards, 24 TD, 4 INT
Rates: 64.3% completion rate, 8.9 yards per pass, 6.4% TD rate, 1.1% INT rate

And this doesn't even take into account that he barely played in the second half of the Texas game.

Just as means of comparison...

Chase Daniel, 2006
Stats: 287-for-452, 3,527 yards, 28 TD, 10 INT
Rates: 63.5% completion rate, 7.8 yards per pass, 6.2% TD rate, 2.2% INT rate

Gabbert would be slightly better across the board. You would expect him to have better yards per pass figures just because of his strong arm, but better completion, TD, and INT rates? Yikes.

Now think about this: what would Danario Alexander's numbers look like right now with no Gimpy Blaine? Of the 16 extra completions and 298 extra yards, he'd have probably snagged about 7 and 125 of them, giving him about 99 catches for 1,536 yards. That would bump him from third to second in the country in receptions per game, and from third to first in the country in receiving yards per game.

(And he still wouldn't be a Biletnikoff finalist.)

Three Positives

Diminishing Returns. Iowa State's offense proved what I always say about the dink-and-dunk attack: you can get away with it for a while, but unless you're able to go deep, you can't get away with it forever. Darius Darks' end-of-first-half 38-yard touchdown catch was really the only deeper pass the Cyclones completed, and thanks to their lack of a deep threat, Mizzou was able to play closer to the line than normal and get away with it. Eventually, the yards and points dried up, as ISU managed just 105 yards and 7 points after halftime, and just 8 yards in the fourth quarter.

This is at least somewhat good news, as there is no doubt that KU will be utilizing as many short passes as they can get away with on Saturday. They tried it last year, and it eventually wore down Mizzou's defense since Mizzou's offense performed so terribly for most of the first half. If Mizzou's offense does its job and puts some points on the board early, it will be harder for KU to take shots downfield against a tired defense, and even though KU still has Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier, if Mizzou stays fresh, they can defend KU's offense at least relatively well as the game progresses.
Dave Yost. Missouri still has some work to do to get Blaine Gabbert up into the Chase Daniel Department when it comes to performance on passing downs, but Mizzou's standard downs performance Saturday was simply fantastic, and some credit for that has to go to the puppet master in the press box, Dave Yost. He was crushed by Mizzou fans a few games ago for not knowing what plays to call to get an offense led by an injured quarterback to score points against some great defenses, but ... well, no offensive coordinator in the country would have engineered much in that situation. Yes, Mizzou could have tried to run the ball more, but it simply would not have made much of a difference. But if he gets crushed when Mizzou struggles, he deserves a ton of credit when Mizzou is operating smoothly, and without their #1 RB in the second half and their #2 WR all game, Mizzou's offense was the definition of smooth against Iowa State.
Jerrell Jackson. We all know what Danario Alexander can do, but Mizzou needed another weapon on Saturday to compensate for the loss of Jared Perry and to prevent Iowa State from quintuple-teaming Alexander, and Jackson stepped up, to the tune of 142 receiving yards (just 31 behind Alexander) and 12 rushing yards, his second straight game combining for over 100 yards. He is a tremendous athlete, and if he can get that whole "hands" thing under control, he could be a lovely weapon for Mizzou in 2010-11. But speaking of the hands...

Three Negatives

Jerrell Jackson. As I posted on Twitter during the game, I'm really developing quite the love-hate relationship with this guy. If not for his drops, we might have won the OSU game even with a gimpy Gabbert. And if not for his drops and fumble, ISU probably would not have led at halftime. But without his catches, Mizzou might not have caught up to ISU. Still, though, while Gabbert probably needs to do a better job of throwing into Jackson's body to avoid the possibility of a drop, Jackson needs to do whatever he can to become a more reliable receiving weapon this offseason--catching 1,000,000 of Gabbert's fastballs, getting contacts, whatever. He might be the default #1 WR next year, and if he can't consistently catch the ball ... well ... that's not good.
ISU's Passing Success Rate. For the game, ISU's passing success rate of 47.7% wasn't too great, but in the first half it was far too high. As I mentioned above, it's hard to make the dink-and-dunk work all game, but it was working a lot early on, even with Mizzou giving smaller cushions than normal. In Q1, ISU's passing success rate was 72.7% (8-for-11), and after misfiring on the first three passes of Q2, ISU finished the half on a 55.6% clip (5-for-9). As we know, that resulted in 17 points, and then the spigot went dry. However, against KU, a rate like that might result in about 21-24 points, so even though this ended up a positive for MU, it's a reason to be at least slightly nervous about what KU might do.
Kickoff Coverage. Here are ISU's starting field positions following Mizzou kickoffs:

ISU 27, ISU 46, ISU 36, ISU 31, ISU 32, ISU 20, ISU 34

Seven kickoffs with only one stop inside the 25 yard line. Five of seven times, ISU started past the 30. And ISU is only an average kick-returning team. Kansas, meanwhile, has Dez Briscoe. There is no question that Gary Pinkel and staff have figured things out in terms of the best way to coach kicking and punting...and, for that matter, punt coverage has been pretty good recently too. But there's something about kickoffs that is harder to coach, and Mizzou has not been a very good coverage team any time recently. In the six years of data recorded at CFB Stats, Mizzou has ranked 87th (2009), 94th (2008), 53rd (2007), 73rd (2006), 103rd (2005), and 91st (2004) in opponents' kick returns. Ouch. And that's just the returns, that doesn't even take into account the overall good starting field position when Mizzou has to pooch it to avoid a big return.

Anyway, of all my concerns for KU, the two biggest ones are KU's dink-and-dunk ability and their likely fantastic starting field position, and the ISU game only highlighted both of these concerns.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Mizzou was +3 points in the turnover game, and they won by 10. One more strip by Iowa State, and it could have turned the game.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Mizzou advanced inside ISU's 35 five times and came away with 20 points -- two touchdowns, two field goals, and a turnover on downs. Meanwhile, ISU advanced inside Mizzou's 35 four times and came away with 17 points -- two touchdowns (both on trick plays), a field goal and a turnover on downs. In other words, this was just about a wash. Mizzou's two long touchdowns trumped ISU's one, and that made the difference in the game.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not.

Consider this one a FAIL in Q1, a slight fail in Q2, a wash in Q3, and a WIN in Q4. Like I said, Mizzou might not want to wait as long to really play the short passes well this Saturday, but in all this was still an overall net win for Mizzou.

Summary

Despite the fact that their own mistakes allowed for a little more adversity than you'd like to see (particularly the late-Q2 fumble and some first-half issues defending the short pass), you always like seeing your team overcome adversity, and for the second game in a row, Mizzou dominated the second half. They sent Sean Weatherspoon and Danario Alexander out as winners, and their young players (particularly #11) continued to show significant growth. One of the major goals for 2009 was just to not screw up our hopes for the future, and their late-game surges the last couple of weeks have assured that this goal was rather successful, no matter what happens from here on out (though it's obvious that optimism could be starkly diminished with a couple of losses to finish the season). In all, it was a lovely Saturday to watch a Mizzou win, and like the Mizzou team did immediately after the game, we now turn the page and look to Kansas.

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:13 -0000

With basketball and the Mark Mangino Soap Opera for Dudes, it's been easy to become distracted from the fact that Mizzou has another home football game to play! I'm figuring Mizzou hasn't forgotten...at least I hope they haven't, as ISU's good enough to pop you in the chin if you let your guard down. Just ask Nebraska.

With his postgame celebration after Iowa State's win over Nebraska, I think it's safe to say that Paul Rhoads became most Big 12 North fans' second-favorite coach (or in the case of Colorado fans, maybe even their favorite). He is a passionate guy who, as we talked about this summer, seems to consider Iowa State a destination job, and in Year One of the Rhoads tenure, Iowa State is 6-5 and staring a bowl bid in the face. While their rankings below (and the fact that they've only beaten one team with a winning record, and it took eight turnovers to do so) suggest a relatively easy win for Missouri, it is certainly worth noting that they beat both Baylor and Nebraska this year, something Mizzou was unable to do. If Missouri plays well, as well as they did against Kansas State last week, they will win this game. But if they don't, Iowa State has proven quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunities given them and sneaking out with a seventh win.

Offense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

If fans have seen any one game Iowa State has played this year, it was probably the Nebraska game, which would give you the impression of a team light on offense but heavy on defensive playmakers. For the season, that really has not been the case. Statistically, they are much more successful on offense than defense; the key for the Cyclones, in both wins and losses, has been turnovers.

Iowa State's 6 wins: 22 takeaways (3.7 per game), 9 turnovers (1.5 per game), +13 turnover margin
Iowa State's 5 losses: 7 takeaways (1.4 per game), 13 turnovers (2.6 per game), -6 turnover margin

If stripping the ball is a skill, Paul Rhoads has taught it well. ISU has forced 29 fumbles this year (2.6 per game), almost three per game, and it has served them well against careless teams. Missouri has done well in only fumbling 14 times on the season (1.4 per game), but caution will be infinitely better than stretching for the extra yard on Saturday. Even taking the Nebraska game (and its +8 margin) out of the equation, ISU has still been good at taking the ball away, and it has still mattered a ridiculous amount toward whether they win or lose.

Anyway, to the offense. The numbers are, for the most part, pretty decent, though the after-the-jump conference figures tell you an interesting story.

Iowa State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	ISU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	107.3 (51)	105.1 (47)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	109.6 (31)	100.5 (60)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	105.9 (64)	111.8 (43)

Rushing S&P+	106.5 (52)	113.5 (38)
Passing S&P+	109.4 (49)	97.2 (63)

Standard Downs S&P+	106.5 (51)	115.4 (24)
Passing Downs S&P+	103.9 (59)	96.7 (69)

Red Zone S&P+	115.8 (39)	117.4 (31)

Q1 S&P+	96.3 (84)	92.2 (80)
Q2 S&P+	101.1 (65)	132.1 (13)
Q3 S&P+	130.2 (16)	105.5 (51)
Q4 S&P+	104.7 (63)	114.3 (33)

1st Down S&P+	110.8 (39)	109.6 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	100.7 (72)	105.4 (52)
3rd Down S&P+	103.2 (70)	110.2 (43)

Line Yards+	113.9 (23)	102.3 (52)
Close Sack Rate+	232.2 (6)	82.1 (88)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	125.8 (44) / 200.9 (18)	114.8 (44) / 104.4 (58)

I listed 19 categories above, and in half of them, ISU ranks between 30th and 60th. That's pretty much the definition of "decent." They are outstanding on the offensive line -- by far the strongest in the North division according to these statistics -- but their skill position players are, well, somewhat lacking in skill. They are, however, extremely efficient, which is a nice quality to have against a Missouri defense that sacrifices efficiency for limited big plays. I will be interested to see how much Missouri adjusts its defensive gameplan to account for short passes, though I personally doubt they will tinker much. I'm pretty sure they will be perfectly content with doing what they did against K-State: allowing all the yardage they want between the 30s, then cracking down in the red zone.

These numbers, however, do not tell the entire story. For that, we need to go to their "Non-Conference vs Conference Play" numbers after the jump.

ISU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	107.3	94.1
Close SR+	106.2	103.9
Close PPP+	106.5	81.0

Rushing S&P+	115.6	98.5
Passing S&P+	97.1	94.4

Standard Downs S&P+	112.2	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	95.5	97.2

Red Zone S&P+	105.4	95.0

Q1 S&P+	98.7	84.7
Q2 S&P+	107.1	95.8
Q3 S&P+	107.6	111.0
Q4 S&P+	100.6	97.2

Note: you'll see that some of the conference/non-conference averages do not really match up with the season averages above. This is because I was looking at per-game data for the conference breakout, and one really good or really bad game can skew those numbers pretty considerably. For the full-season data, I look at every play (a sample size of, well a lot of plays) instead of "+" scores from a sample size of ten games. If this disclaimer didn't make any sense, don't worry about it. It's not that important, and I'm not really feeling like an A+ wordsmith at the moment.

Here is a game-by-game look at Iowa State's scoring progression this year: 34, 3, 34, 31, 23, 36, 24, 9, 10, 8, 17. After averaging 26.4 points over their first six games, the Cyclones have managed just 11.0 points in their last four. Thanks in part to turnovers and improving defense, they have gone 2-2 in that span, but this does start to take the look of a "Score 24 points and you'll probably win" game. We know that Baylor wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire before they came to Faurot Field two weeks ago, but the matchups in this game are not the same. Baylor doesn't have a lot of skill at wide receiver, but they have pure speed, and they burned Missouri with it. Iowa State quite frankly just doesn't have that speed. Their offense resembles K-State's without Brandon Banks--solid, strong running back, good tight end play (not that KSU showed any of that against Mizzou), and a big bunch of possession receivers.

The passing game has remained rather consistent throughout the season, but consistency isn't a great trait when you're just consistently being slightly below average. The running game, meanwhile, has regressed considerably, from rock solid in September to distinctly average in October and November. Consequently, they have remained about the same on passing downs, but they have fallen off on standard downs, which has resulted in a lot more passing downs.

When ISU Has the Ball...
ISU Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
ISU Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	later in halves

Mizzou Advantages:

Points Per Play+ (explosiveness)
Rushing
Standard Downs
Red Zone (slightly)
Q2, Q4
2nd, 3rd Down

And for ISU...

Success Rate+ (efficiency)
Passing (slightly)
Q3
Line Yards, Sack Rates

It doesn't speak kindly of Alexander Robinson that Iowa State's run blocking numbers are so good, yet their actual rushing numbers are so average. In all, you can kind of see where both teams might succeed. Iowa State will succeed by playing well in the trenches and pulling off as many short, quick passes as they can manage. Missouri will succeed by using their superior linebackers to limit the running game, by tackling well, and by making stops on standard downs to force passing downs.

Quarterback

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

Austen Arnaud: 131-for-237 passing, 1,550 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INT (119.3 efficiency); 479 rushing yards, 7 TD
Jerome Tiller: 41-for-73 passing, 376 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT (93.0 efficiency); 216 rushing yards, 2 TD

For the second straight season, Austen Arnaud has put together numbers that are ... perfectly average. ISU has been decent in the passing game (with little help from the receiving corps), and Arnaud has become more of a threat with his legs this year, and he is by all means a solid quarterback. He will never threaten for all-conference honors, and honestly he seems like he should be scarier than he is -- strong arm, good legs, etc. --but he is competent. I mean this entire paragraph as neither a bad thing nor a particularly bad thing.

Running Back

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in Adjusted POE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Alexander Robinson: 196 carries, 1,002 yards (5.1 per carry), 6 TD; 10 receptions, 200 yards (20.0 per catch), 3 TD
Jeremiah Schwartz: 71 carries, 264 yards (3.7 per carry)

Again, Robinson's numbers look strong, and he was huge against Missouri at Faurot Field two years ago, but once you factor line play into the equation, he starts to look very average, very quickly. He is a workhorse, however, and there is value in that. In the last five games that he has played (he missed the Nebraska game with a groin injury), he has averaged 22.4 carries per game, and like KSU's Daniel Thomas, ISU will absolutely lean on him as much as they can. It's just that, in those five games, he's only averaged over 5.0 yards per carry once. The injury has clearly affected his explosiveness.

In the nine games he's played (he only got 4 carries against KSU, so we're not counting that one here), here are his yards per carry:

5.2, 5.3, 6.2, 5.9, 5.6, 4.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.6

Even last week against Colorado, when he went for 138 yards (plus 20 yards receiving), he still averaged less than five yards. The trick with Robinson is, the longer ISU stays in the game, the more they can pound away at you with him. But if you get a lead, then they don't know where to go with the ball. He still averaged 18 carries a game in blowout losses against OSU and ATM, but it didn't help much, as ISU scored only 18 points combined.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

WR Marquis Hamilton (Sr.): 41 receptions, 542 yards (13.2 per catch), 4 TD
WR Jake Williams (Jr.): 26 receptions, 297 yards (11.4 per catch), 3 TD
WR Josh Lenz (Fr.): 20 receptions, 186 yards (9.3 per catch)
WR Darius Darks (So.): 17 receptions, 158 yards (9.3 per catch), 1 TD
WR Darius Reynolds (Jr.): 13 receptions, 72 yards (5.5 per catch!)

TE Derrick Catlett (Sr.): 25 receptions, 277 yards (11.1 per catch), 2 TD
TE Collin Franklin (Jr.): 14 receptions, 149 yards (10.6 per catch)

If a wide receiver is making a big play, it is almost certainly coming from Marquis Hamilton, who seems to be in his 19th year in Ames. Otherwise, this is as nondescript a WR corps as you will find. The good news for ISU is, they have a pair of rock solid tight ends, and they will use them a lot if given the opportunity. Of ISU's 12 complete passes last week, five went to the tight ends. Derrick Catlett very much impressed me in last year's Mizzou-ISU game, and Mizzou very much needs to account for him. Still, though, having good tight ends only helps with efficiency, not so much explosiveness. If Mizzou tackles well and plays smart, this unit simply will not have much of a day.

Offensive Line

Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.
Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Consider this the best test of the month for Mizzou's improving, and almost awesome, defensive line. As mentioned in the above excerpt, this is a big, strong offensive line, and they have the potential to wear you down if you are allowing too many first downs. They are good in pass protection, but their strength is in the running game. With an elite back, the run blocking really could have made the difference between six wins and a North title. This is Iowa State's single strongest unit.

---

Defense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

ISU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	ISU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	86.5 (100)	116.2 (28)
Close Success Rate+	83.1 (117)	106.7 (41)
Close PPP+	91.9 (73)	133.1 (22)

Rushing S&P+	97.5 (74)	102.5 (67)
Passing S&P+	78.2 (111)	126.7 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	90.7 (95)	113.3 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	91.5 (87)	115.4 (43)

Red Zone S&P+	98.9 (69)	79.3 (108)

Q1 S&P+	79.2 (106)	120.9 (38)
Q2 S&P+	94.8 (75)	114.9 (43)
Q3 S&P+	90.6 (84)	118.1 (32)
Q4 S&P+	92.9 (79)	107.0 (56)

1st Down S&P+	97.2 (70)	114.1 (34)
2nd Down S&P+	82.3 (107)	112.0 (48)
3rd Down S&P+	87.4 (95)	118.5 (35)

Line Yards+	89.6 (100)	99.1 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	44.9 (119)	140.4 (29)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	51.7 (114) / 76.9 (94)	228.7 (11) / 110.9 (53)

When they are not forcing turnovers, they are not getting the job done.

ISU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	98.8	96.7
Close SR+	99.6	86.9
Close PPP+	98.7	120.5

Rushing S&P+	131.4	113.4
Passing S&P+	81.7	91.5

Standard Downs S&P+	96.7	98.6
Passing Downs S&P+	107.1	119.1

Red Zone S&P+	115.1	129.5

Q1 S&P+	100.0	102.0
Q2 S&P+	125.8	124.0
Q3 S&P+	83.9	111.7
Q4 S&P+	132.5	104.4

So as the season has progressed, Iowa State has gotten better defending the pass and worse defending the rush. Against Missouri, that might not necessarily be a bad thing for them. You have to account for Mizzou's pass before you worry about the run.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Push
Missouri Passing	Big Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	The rest of the game

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, Points Per Play+
Rushing (slight)
Passing (huge)
Standard Downs, Passing Downs
Q1-Q4
1st-3rd Down
Line Yards
Sack Rates (HUGE)

ISU's advantages:

Red Zone

Two quick notes:

ANY sack Mizzou gives up is a huge failure. ISU has generated one of the worst pass rushes in the country.
Each of the last two games, a key factor has been Touchdowns vs Field Goals. ISU's only significant advantage is in the Red Zone, but if they can hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven, they will stay in the game for longer and longer. And as mentioned above, the longer they stay in this game, the longer they can pound away at Mizzou with their big linemen in run blocking.

Defensive Line

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

DE Christopher Lyle: 41.0 tackles, 9.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH, 3 PBU
DT Nate Frere: 17.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 QBH
DT Bailey Johnson: 15.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks
DE Patrick Neal: 14.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer: 12.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
DT Austin Alburtis: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

I called this unit a relative strength in the offseason, but it has been absolutely brutal this year. Chris Lyle has put together some nice numbers, but the rest of the line has been, to put it kindly, iffy. Mizzou's decent-not-great offensive line should be able to impose its will on this unit, which ranks 100th or worse in both line yards and sack rates.

Linebackers

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it.

Jesse Smith: 88.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 3 QBH, 5 PBU
Fred Garrin: 60.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 4 PBU
Josh Raven: 27.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH
Jake Knott: 16.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
A.J. Klein: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

On the other hand, ISU's linebackers been more disruptive than expected, at least in terms of getting a hand in on turnovers. Josh Raven has been the only behind-the-line-of-scrimmage threat, and this isn't a wonderful unit by any means, but the five players above have forced six fumbles, recovered two, and picked off four passes. If Blaine Gabbert gets a little too greedy and locks in on a receiver, the back seven of ISU's defense might make him pay.

Secondary

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

S James Smith: 61.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 3 FR, 5 PBU
S David Sims: 54.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 4 INT, 3 FF, 1 FR
CB Leonard Johnson: 46.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 PBU
CB Kennard Banks: 42.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 5 PBU
S Michael O'Connell: 27.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBU
CB Ter'ran Benton: 26.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
CB Jeremy Reeves: 10.0 tackles

It's interesting: the Iowa State secondary has been about as disruptive a secondary as you could ask for. Eleven tackles for loss, nine interceptions, seven forced fumbles, seven recovered fumbles, a ton of broken-up passes ... and yet, when they are not making huge plays, they're leaking yardage like our old dishwasher leaked water. This is about as all-or-nothing a unit as you're going to find, and it is a must that Mizzou play smart in their passing game. If Gabbert makes the smart throw, and the receivers hold onto the ball (Jerrell Jackson, I'm looking in your general direction), then they should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. But ISU is good at turning little mistakes into large mistakes. Speaking of mistakes...

Injured Blaine Gabbert: 42-for-95 passing (44.2%), 512 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD (1.1% of passes), 5 INT (5.3%)
Healthy Blaine Gabbert: 159-for-246 (64.6%), 2,150 yards (8.7 per pass), 19 TD (7.7%), 2 INT (0.8%)

WOW. I realize that his injury coincided perfectly with the best threesome of pass defenses that Missouri faced this year, and I realize he wouldn't have produced his season averages in 11 quarters against Nebraska, OSU, and Texas, but ... still ... wow. Healthy Gabbert is completing 20% more of his passes than Injured Gabbert, for 3.3 more yards per pass, throwing TDs at a 7x higher rate, while throwing INTs at almost a 7x lower rate. It's an amazing question to wonder what Gabbert's already strong numbers would have looked like had Ndamukong Suh not rolled him up.

In the end, Healthy Gabbert is taking on a secondary that, while more disruptive, is really no better than Kansas State's ... and with help from Danario Alexander, he carved K-State up quite nicely. I'm curious how Mizzou will handle the loss of Jared Perry, particularly who becomes the fourth major target, assuming Jerrell Jackson is now #2 and Wes Kemp #3 (or vice versa). Does long-lost Andrew Jones join the fray again? Does somebody like Brandon Gerau, Rolandis Woodland, or T.J. Moe suddenly see a couple passes? Danario Alexander already catches a higher percentage of his team's passes than any other major receiver, so we can't really lean on him more than we already do.

Special Teams

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Punt Returns Rank: 104th (Josh Lenz: 19 returns, 4.7 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 24th (Mike Brandtner: 56 punts, 40.5 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 56th (Leonard Johnson: 17 returns, 20.4 avg; David Sims: 15 returns, 22.9 avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 7th (Grant Mahoney: 2 touchbacks in 48 kickoffs)

Field Goals: 98th (Grant Mahoney: 12-for-19, Long: 52)
PATs: 118th (Grant Mahoney: 21-for-25)

Another all-or-nothing unit, ISU's coverage teams are rock solid. They're 24th in Net Punting and 7th in Net Kickoffs, but they pretty much stink on ice at everything else. They're bad at returning punts, they're bad at place-kicking, and they're only okay at kickoff returns. (Of course, "okay at kickoff returns" could actually mean "good at kickoff returns" against Missouri. We'll see.) Mizzou has a solid advantage here if Jake Harry is getting good bounces and there are no complete debacles at kickoff return.

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Three Keys to the Game

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

It's pretty obvious that Iowa State is well above average in terms of forcing fumbles and intercepting passes. If it is a technique that can be learned, they've learned it. Meanwhile, Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

Mizzou had to settle for three field goals against Baylor, and even though The Amazing Grant Ressel made them all, settling for them in the first place cost them quite a bit in an eight-point win. Meanwhile, Missouri held K-State to four field goals last Saturday, and while their final winning margin suggests it probably wouldn't have made a difference, it did.

Defenses are slowly starting to catch up to offenses again, especially in the red zone, and it seems touchdowns have been much harder to come by for a lot of teams this year. If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not. But if they do ISU some favors, and the Cyclones are able to generate some bigger plays, then ... well, we saw what happens in that scenario two weeks ago against Baylor. Play disciplined on defense, do your job, and Iowa State will need another +8 turnover margin to win the game.

Prediction

Not surprisingly, the numbers like Mizzou quite a bit in this one. I don't believe too heavily in things like Senior Day emotion playing a big role or anything -- to me, it could almost be a detriment as much as an asset -- but in the end, emotion should even out, and Mizzou should move to 7-4. I cannot commend enough the job that Paul Rhoads has done this season, taking a group that had no idea how to win, and teaching them how to seize every opportunity and win some ball games. Still, though, if Missouri doesn't turn the ball over and give ISU extra opportunities, they should be able to handle Iowa State relatively easily. Make mistakes, however, and you will pay. The numbers say Mizzou by 18, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Iowa State 13.

Tulsa World: Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson Not Expected to Start, Probably Won't Play Against Buffs

irish1611 — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:47:02 -0000

The Colorado Buffaloes might get some help tonight against the 12th ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys. According to the Tulsa World, sources have told them that QB Zac Robinson is not expected to start tonight and will probably not be seeing any action just five days after a big collision with less than two minutes remaining in the Texas Tech game. Oklahoma State went on to win that game 24 - 17. At first the hit was believed to have caused a concussion but it now looks like the bigger issue is the injury it caused to Robinson's throwing shoulder.

The Cowboys (8-2) are still in the running for a BCS game so any loss would be detrimental to that cause. Next week, Oklahoma State takes on its in-state rival the Oklahoma Sooners, a game which will carry major implications for the Cowboys if they were to beat the Buffs tonight in Stillwater.

The Tulsa World also reports that QB Alex Cate is likely to get the start tonight:

"Alex Cate, who has not started a game since the 2005 season at Cottonwood High School in Salt Lake City, Utah, is expected to start at quarterback for OSU. A fourth-year junior, Cate has taken the majority of first-team snaps in practice this week."

Colorado will be attempting to win only it's third game on the road in the Dan Hawkins era tonight (2-18). This news will certainly help their cause considering both Robinson's success as the Pokes' quarterback and the very limited experience Alex Cate has at the collegiate level. Cate has attempted justfive passes in his career at Oklahoma State completing four, all in 2008. He has not attempted a pass this year but has rushed the ball one time for two yards.

Expect the Oklahoma State Cowboys, regardless of who plays at quarterback tonight, to be a very run-oriented team. The Pokes recently returned preseason All American candidate RB Kendall Hunter into the lineup after missing half of the season with a severe ankle sprain. Last year, Hunter ran for 1,555 yards and 16 touchdowns. In Hunter's absence, Keith Toston has emerged and has filled in beautifully as the former starter begins to work his way back (Hunter ran 17 for 68 yards against Texas Tech last week). Toston, after only carrying the ball an average of ten times the first two games of the season, has taken over the lead role for the Pokes and is now just 42 yards away from 1,000 on the season. Toston ranks 30th in the nation in rushing yards/game at 95.8, good for 4th in the Big 12. A big reason for the seamless transition between running backs is the dominant offensive line OSU brings out led by All American candidate T Russel Okung. This season, the offensive line has only given up 0.7 sacks a game which is third in the nation and first in the Big 12. Compare that number to the Colorado Buffaloes, who are giving up 3.8 sacks per game which ranks 117th in college football.

Last week, the Colorado Buffaloes' defense gave up 138 yards to Iowa State RB Alexander Robinson.

Colorado Buffaloes Open as 14.5 Point Underdogs on the Road Against Oklahoma State

irish1611 — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 03:43:57 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Oklahoma State running back Keith Toston (5) has filled in nicely for the injured Kendall Hunter this season. Oklahoma State is one of the best running teams in the nation behind a very good offensive line led by OT Russell Okung (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Browse more photos »

It doesn't get any easier for the Colorado Buffaloes (3-7, 2-4) as they travel on a short week to face the 12th ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-2, 5-1) in Stillwater this Thursday night (ESPN, 5:30 PM MT). Currently, odds makers have this one pegged at 14.5 points in favor of the home team. It marks the 8th consecutive game the Colorado Buffaloes will go into the game as an underdog. Oklahoma State is the third ranked team the Buffs will have played this season with Nebraska potentially being a fourth next week if they take care of business against Kansas State in Lincoln.

Oklahoma State beat Texas Tech this past Saturday 24 - 17 in Stillwater. Oklahoma State turned the Red Raiders over three times and was able to hold on after Texas Tech had a 10 - 7 halftime lead. Former Colorado prep and current OSU starting quarterback Zac Robinson was part of a scary collision last night with 98 seconds left in the game. He was helped off the field after suffering what looked like a concussion. Before getting hurt, Robinson only passed for 90 yards but was the Pokes leading rusher with 99 yards on 19 carries. The senior signal caller ranks eighth in the Big 12 in passing yards this season but is second in the conference in passing efficiency, throwing for 15 scores and only 7 interceptions. For his career, Robinson has passed for 8,155 yards and 66 touchdowns.

Initially, one had to wonder if Oklahoma State would hold out Robinson on a short week with the rivalry game against Oklahoma in two weeks. But according to the Tulsa World, Robinson plans to play against Colorado. It is also senior night for Robinson and the rest of the graduating Pokes which should provide them some extra motivation to come out strong against the Buffs.

read more of the game preview after the jump...

Robinson and the Oklahoma State offense were dealt a big blow when All American wide receiver Dez Bryant was ruled ineligible by the NCAA after the third game of the year. Bryant still ranks as the second leading receiver on the team. But Oklahoma State has recovered nicely.

The key for Oklahoma State this year has been the emergence of running back Keith Toston after All Big 12 back Kendall Hunter was injured the third game of the year suffering a sprained ankle. Hunter essentially missed six games before returning two weeks ago in a limited role. Last year, Hunter ran for 1,555 yards and 16 touchdowns. Not very often a team losses their two best players in the same year and still has a chance to go 10 - 2 but that is what Oklahoma State has done. Toston has filled in beautifully for the injured Hunter aas he begins to work his way back (Hunter ran 17 for 68 yards against Texas Tech last week). Toston, after only carrying the ball an average of ten times the first two games of the season, has taken over the lead role for the Pokes and is now just 42 yards away from 1,000 on the season. Toston ranks 30th in the nation in rushing yards/game at 95.8, good for 4th in the Big 12. A big reason for the seamless transition between running backs is the dominant offensive line OSU brings out led by All American candidate T Russell Okung. This season, the offensive line has only given up 0.7 sacks a game which is third in the nation and first in the Big 12. Compare that number to the Colorado Buffaloes, who are giving up 3.8 sacks per game which ranks 117th in college football. That tells you a lot about why the Buffs have only three wins and why Oklahoma State, who lost their two biggest play makers from a year ago, has a chance at 10 wins, something Dan Hawkin's "muttered" this offseason.

With the losses of Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter for a big chunk of the year, Oklahoma State's offense has fallen off from last year where they finished the season as the 6th ranked unit in the nation averaging 487 yards a contest. This year, they find themselves 48th averaging just over 400 yards per game. But the big improvement and the main reason why the Cowboys are still a player in the Big 12 is a vastly improved defense. In 2008, Oklahoma State struggled stopping the opposition, ranking 93rd in the nation allowing 405 yards per. This year, the defense is only allowing 333 yards a game and is 7th in the nation allowing just 89 yards on the ground.

As for the Colorado Buffaloes, there are only a few things that need to be highlighted. CU is now eliminated from bowl eligibility after a loss last weekend to Iowa State in Ames. Under first year coach Paul Rhoads, Iowa State is now bowl eligible and, in one year, has won the same number of road games as Dan Hawkins has in four seasons at the helm in Boulder. Just two weeks ago, Iowa State was manhandled by Oklahoma State in Stillwater, 34 - 8. Cyclones RB Alexander Robinson, who ran wild on the Buffs' defense for 138 yards, was held to just 51 yards and 3.2 a carry, his lowest average this year. ISU was held scoreless until the fourth quarter and QB Austin Arnaud was intercepted three times. Pokes RB Keith Toston ran for 206 yards on the Cyclones and three scores.

One has to wonder if the Buffs will come out and play with an pride after being eliminated from postseason play for the third time in four years. With the season already an embarrassment, this national appearance could be very dangerous if Colorado comes out like they usually do on the road - uninspired, timid and lacking confidence - but now with even less to play for. Last week's loss also marks the fourth consecutive season with a losing record, all under Dan Hawkins. As you know, Hawkins at Colorado is 2 - 18 on the road and 3 - 20 when the game is not played in Boulder. Last season, Oklahoma State beat the Buffs 30 - 17 in Folsom, racking up 443 total yards, 226 of which came on the ground. With the injury to Robinson against Tech and the desire to protect him for the Sooners in two weeks, you can expect a heavy dose of Toston and Hunter on Thursday night.

13 days and counting...

Q&A with the Iowa State Blog, Clone Chronicles

irish1611 — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 05:00:34 -0000

The Ralphie Report sat down with the fine Iowa State blog on SBNation, Clone Chronicles, to discuss many things like this weekend's game, how Iowa State has played after beating Nebraska three weeks ago, QB Austen Arnaud and finally, some predictions.

A couple weeks ago, Iowa State beat Nebraska in Lincoln. No small feat at all but were aided by eight Husker turnovers. On the flip side, Iowa State was without two offensive starters in QB Austen Arnaud and RB Alexander Robinson. The rest of the Cyclones' victories have come against North Dakota State, Kent State, Army and Baylor (minus Robert Griffin). I guess, as a fan, how do you feel about this team and are you pleased with their performance this year?

Most ISU fans know that all 8 turnovers needed to happen in order to win this game. Still though, they had their backup QB, backup RB (who now isn't even listed on the two-deeps), and were able to snap a 33 year losing streak in Lincoln. People aren't going to be down about that at all.

As far as how good the team is, I'd say it's improved from last year in some respects, but worse in other areas. I think we're comparable to the rest of the North. Remember, ISU had chances against K-State and KU, losing by a combined 6 points. ISU was just short of being 4-1 in the North right now, and this question wouldn't even be brought up.

As far as record goes, I predicted 6-6 before the season started, so it's about par for my expectations in that respect. As far as what I'm seeing on the field, I am mostly disappointed in the offense. ISU's offense was decent last year, and kept them in some games. This year with adding a coordinator like Tom Herman, you would've thought that ISU's offense would improve, but have only scored 27 points the last three games.

Even if ISU loses out and is 5-7, it would be very disappointing at first, but in retrospect it'd be hard to say it was a bad year.

I realize that this schedule wasn't all that tough as you were pointing out (57^th according to Sagarin), but it's still a little tougher than Penn State's (72^nd according to Sagarin) for example. What's worse, having ISU who generally ranks in the 50-70 range in terms of recruiting lose 5 games at this point, or have Penn State lose 2 games with an easier schedule and a program that brings in some top talent? It's probably about the same if you think about it.

I've just come to find that if ISU does poorly, people will point out how we suck, will always suck, etc. If we do better than people expect, they find ways to point out how we really aren't that "good".

I think ISU is team that's competitive within a very mediocre division (close games to KSU, KU, and NU so far). But with 68 teams going to bowl games, there's bound to be some mediocre teams in the mix.

click after the jump to see the rest of the interview:

The last two weeks, Iowa State has had trouble on both sides of the ball. What are the few main things that need to be fixed when Colorado comes to town next weekend?

Offensively: establish the passing game. ISU is a good running team, but faced one of the best rushing defenses last week in OSU, and got down too quickly against A&M to run the ball. There are a handful of 1^st and 2^nd down passes that go incomplete, and often times this sets up a long 3^rd down. If ISU can do a better job passing earlier in the drives, they can minimize the long 3^rd downs and keep drives moving.

Defensively: Defensive line play. This has been a problem all year, but there needs to be improvement in this area. Quite simply on defense, ISU is giving the QB too much time to find the open receiver. Last week, there were possessions where Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson was able to scan all of his receivers with absolutely zero pressure. Often times the secondary is getting held out to dry. Also, a majority of ISU's sacks (which aren't many) are coverage sacks. It may look like ISU's secondary isn't good, but they're decent. It's the D-Line making them look bad.

I doubt these will be fixed, but steady improvement in those areas from last week would go a long way.

A bright spot of this year's team has to be the offensive line. Just looking at the stats, RB Alexander Robinson has statistically had a nice year on the ground. Overall, Iowa State ranks third in the Big12 in rushing and second in total sacks given up (10th in the nation overall). Just how good has the offensive line been or are the stats misleading?

The O-Line is one of the better ones in the Big 12 I think. If Reggie Stephens doesn't get on the All Big 12 team, I'll go ballistic. This unit was a straight up liability in 2008. Last year against Kent State, they couldn't get a first down on the ground on 3^rd and 1 and 4^th and inches for example. An additional year of development and playing together has helped. Also, moving Reggie Stephens from OG to C has helped a lot as well.

If ISU had better backups at QB and RB, the rushing totals and sack totals (due to the QB holding the ball for too long) would look even better than now. Regarding the sacks, it helps a lot that ISU is playing exclusively from the Shotgun, but this is a solid unit, along with one of the biggest in the nation (average weight = 326 lbs!)

What is your opinion right now of QB Austen Arnaud and the quarterback situation overall at Iowa State? Good running game, seems like a pretty solid offensive line, but Arnaud's completion percentage has regressed from a year ago. Were you expecting more from Arnaud this year?

Arnaud has had a rough year. Early in the year, he tried to do too much and had a bad game against Iowa. The next 5 games, he threw for a better completion percentage, and only threw 1 pick (vs. 4 against Iowa). His confidence was down until the KU game, and he got injured against Baylor. Against Oklahoma State, he wasn't quite himself. He made maybe 1 or 2 decent throws, made some bad reads, and was behind some receivers.

Arnaud is the undisputed leader of this team, though. When he's weary the rest of the team follows suit. He needs to quarterback the team, and hopefully, can play through some of this (poor play).

I expected him to put up similar numbers from last year with 20-25 TDs. I did think we would have to pass more than we currently are. I don't think any ISU fan anticipated that the running game would be doing so well now.

Probably a question you get a lot is about your new coach Paul Rhoads. Rhoads quickly became a college football fan favorite after the youtube video of the locker room after the Nebraska game. You have to love that sort of passion. Grade Rhoads' first year as the Iowa State head coach and talk about the feeling around the fan base about him?

I give Coach Rhoads a B for this year so far, unknown overall. They've improved in a lot of areas, and at times played better than I thought they would. Why I give him a B is because of how the team has played since beating Nebraska.
For the fans, the win over Nebraska had this sense of "mission accomplished" in terms of the season being a success. ISU was in the North race again. Getting to a bowl game became a foregone conclusion at that point, and I wonder if that attitude amongst many of the fans carried over to the team as well. I think with the casual ISU fan, that video cemented Coach Rhoads at ISU for a while. Some will be fans of his for life, regardless of win-loss record. People in Ames have a lot of ISU pride, and having a coach show that means a lot to them.

Now, the North is 99% out, and no one is quite sure that ISU will get to bowl game. The feeling amongst fans is that if ISU wins against Colorado, they have a good chance at winning at Missouri. Were if they lose to Colorado, the confidence that they will be able to win in Columbia the following week in the season finale will be very much in doubt, and rightfully so.

As far as the unknown overall grade: I like what I see at times, but obviously the ability of the coaching staff as a whole will be seen when the class that will sign this winter are juniors and seniors (Coach Rhoads first real recruiting class). It's all about recruiting and development in college football. Right now, he's winning with McCarney and Chizik's players, but soon he will have to do it with his own.

And finally prediction time:

ISU wins if they are able to run for 150 yards, pass for 200 yards, and wins the turnover battle

CU wins if they are able to shut down ISU's running game, can give their QB time to throw, and win the turnover battle.

Final Score: ISU 27, CU 24

Thursday Buff Bites - Kasa's Medical Redshirt Up in the Air

irish1611 — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 01:49:13 -0000

ISU football: Buffaloes will gladly take game on road | desmoinesregister.com | The Des Moines Register
Tyler Hansen thinks getting away from the Colorado fans who wore powder blue last week will be a good thing. Think whatever you want Tyler, as long as it motivates the team against Iowa State:

"Some of our fans are against us," quarterback Tyler Hansen said. "Because of everything that's gone on, we really won't mind going on the road. "In a way, it'll be good to get away." Even with an 11-game losing streak away from home, Hansen said going on the road for a game significant to bowl hopes of both teams won't be all that bad. Upset with the direction of the program, including losing six of the first eight games this season, some fans wore the same powder blue that Colorado football teams wore while winning 10 games in four seasons between 1981 and 1984. "A group of fans chose to wear blue to disrespect the players and to protest the coaching staff and the program as a whole," Hansen said. "It ticked us off."

Buffaloes try to fix road woes -- again - The Longmont Times-Call

KASA UPDATE: CU reported Wednesday the chances are not good for freshman defensive end Nick Kasa to receive a medical hardship in 2009, and the extra year of eligibility that accompanies it. He meets one of the criteria players must meet to receive the hardship year. He played in a maximum of 30 percent of the games, four of 12. Rounding up is allowed. Kasa does not meet the second piece of criteria. Kasa played in game No. 7, at Kansas State on Oct. 24. The injury or illness that ends the player’s year must occur in the first half of the season. Game 7 occurred in the second half of CU’s season.

Brooks: O-Line LooksTo Refocus - CUBuffs.com

At Iowa State Saturday (noon MST, no TV), CU expects to encounter a defense that has featured four down linemen and zone blitzes, with pressure brought off the edges. Linebacker Jesse Smith averages a conference-best 11.0 tackles a game (56 solo, 54 assists), but the Cyclones are last in the league in sacks (12 in 10 games)

09 week 11 picks - College Football Nation Blog - ESPN

Iowa State 24, Colorado 21: The Cyclones are playing for a bowl berth and Colorado is trying to keep its flickering bowl hopes and North title aspirations alive. ISU’s key will be to get its running game going and let Austen Arnaud have some success throwing play-action passes. The home team has claimed the victory in this series in each of the past five seasons. I’m looking for that streak to hit six.

Under Armour All-American RB Jordon James picks UCLA - ESPN
Here is another reason UCLA doesn't want to accept Darrell Scott's transfer:

After narrowing his choices to Arizona, Cal and UCLA, Under Armour All-American running back Jordon James (Corona, Calif./Corona) announced on ESPNU Thursday night that he'll play for the Bruins. James, who's earned a four-star rating, is ranked 19th in the ESPNU 150 and is the fourth-ranked running back in the country

MBB to Begin Season Friday - CUBuffs.com

ABOUT ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF: Head Coach George Ivory enters his second season (13-18 last year) and the Lions return all five starters from a year ago. The Lions won 11 SWAC games and finished fourth overall. Point-guard Terrance Calvin (12.0 ppg., 5.5 rpg., 3.6 apg) and power forward Tyree Glass (8.3 ppg., 4.4 rpg.) top the team in returners. CU defeated Ark.-Pine Bluff in the season opener for both schools last year, 76-56. In that game, returning forward Lebaron Weathers (7.3 ppg., 5.5 rpg.) recorded 22 points and 10 rebounds.

Cabral pleased with Major's development - The Denver Post

Those who think Colorado redshirt freshman linebacker Jon Major has been a disappointment this season do not see his potential, CU linebackers coach Brian Cabral said. Although Major, a former Ponderosa High standout and 2007 Parade All-American, has played in just four games, Cabral said he is "very pleased with where Jon is at and very excited about his future." Cabral said Major is still playing catch-up. The 6-foot-1, 220-pounder missed the 2008 season after undergoing knee surgery for a torn ACL. He sat out 2009 spring drills and was held out of some contact work early in August camp. "Early this season, it was just a matter of Jon getting physically healthy and getting more confidence in that leg," Cabral said. "Now, it's a matter of getting experience."

CU's McKnight doesn`t fit typical wide receiver mold - Boulder Daily Camera
Heart, mental fortitude make up for CU junior`s size

Hirschman Named Kelly-Moore Paints HS Player of the Week
Buffs' commit Nick Hirschman has been given an award by the San Francisco 49ers.com

What to watch in the Big 12, Week 11 - College Football Nation Blog - ESPN

8. Can Iowa State get its running game back against Colorado? The Cyclones were leading the league in rushing before producing a season-low 54 yards against Oklahoma State last week. They shouldn’t be as challenged against a Colorado defense that ranks 72nd nationally and ninth in the conference against the run. The Cyclones desperately need to get Alexander Robinson involved early to help boost a struggling offense that has produced only three touchdowns in its last 13 quarters. Bowl hopes might be riding on it.

Higgins & Thorne Named Captains - CUBuffs.com

University of Colorado men's basketball head coach Jeff Bzdelik announced Wednesday that senior Dwight Thorne II and junior Cory Higgins were named captains for the upcoming 2009-10 season. Both earned the honor for the second straight year.

Four-star viewers guide for Saturday's games - Big 12 Blog - ESPN

Colorado at Iowa State (1 p.m.): Something has to give in this game. Iowa State needs a victory to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2005. Colorado needs a victory to keep its flickering championship and bowl hopes alive. A Buffalo loss ends all of that. The Buffaloes looked like they got a spark in the passing game with Tyler Hansen throwing to Markques Simas, they might be able to thrive against the smallish Cyclone secondary. But the Cyclones will be looking to dominate the clock with their running game, which struggled last week.

Postgame Reaction: KU

TB — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 17:27:57 -0000

by Charlie Riedel - AP

That, KU fans, is how your force a fumble. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

View full size photo »

K-State defeated KU Saturday, 17-10, to return the Governor's Cup to Manhattan. We'll get more into that in a moment, but first, an aside.

To all the KU fans who laughed at Bill Snyder's return, said there was no way he could turn things around because KU and Mizzou were sooo good now, who said after the Colorado and Oklahoma games that K-State wouldn't win another game this year, and to all the fans of all teams who said that K-State was stuck in a spiral of mediocrity from which it was unlikely ever to recover:

Go fuck yourselves. The Legend is back.

Now, before we get into what I liked, what I didn't like and all the other stuff we usually do in this post, I want to look at a few numbers. Here is a comparison of each of K-State's opponent's season averages and what they did against K-State (excepting Texas Tech, because we know they seriously exceeded all season averages in that game):

--Averages: 431 yards per game, 303 passing ypg, 128 rushing ypg, 31 ppg

--Against K-State: 301 total yards, 241 passing yards, 60 rushing yards, 10 points

--Averages: 413 ypg, 274 passing ypg, 139 rushing ypg, 30 ppg

--Against K-State: 458 total yards, 294 passing, 164 rushing, 42 points

Colorado

--Averages: 303 ypg, 217 passing ypg, 86 rushing ypg, 23 ppg

--Against K-State: 244 total yards, 184 passing, 60 rushing, 6 points

Texas A&M

--Averages: 478 ypg, 293 passing ypg, 185 rushing ypg, 36 ppg

--Against K-State: 301 yards, 314 passing, -13 rushing, 14 points

Iowa State

--Averages: 367 ypg, 181 passing ypg, 186 rushing ypg, 21 ppg

--Against K-State: 371 total yards, 164 passing, 204 rushing, 23 points

As you can see, with the exception of the Texas Tech and Oklahoma games, K-State's defense has held its opponents at or below their season averages in yards and points, sometimes significantly so. Let's all stand up and give a big ovation to Vic Koenning and Chris Cosh. This defense was 117th in the nation last season. It currently ranks 43rd. Before the season, we figured that if the defense could improve to even somewhere in the 80s in total defense, it would be a remarkable turnaround. With two games left, it's possible this defense finishes in the top 40, and almost assured that it finishes in the top 50. Simply incredible.

What I liked...

...riding the D-Train. Whereas a lot of teams and players see their numbers fall when they get into conference play, this guy has just gotten better. Yesterday, it was 184 yards on 24 carries (7.7 yards/carry) and one touchdown.

...more wizardry from Vic Koenning and Chris Cosh. At times this season we've been critical that our defensive coordinators play too much soft zone, but there's a clear reason why they're being paid to do the job while we pay to sit in the stands. Yesterday, as has been the case most of the season, the plan was to keep things in front of us, swarm to the ball and tackle well, and force the opponent into long drives. The longer the drive, the better chance of forcing a fumble or getting a stop on a third down. Even on KU's last drive that resulted in points -- the field goal with 5:20 remaining -- the beaks had to run 16 plays just to cover 57 yards, and required two third-down conversions and one fourth-down conversions. It's frustrating that we didn't get the stops when we had a chance, but when you force third downs, the odds are that you'll get stops eventually.

...more disciplined play from the offense. While this team has more weapons than opponents would like to admit, it's not going to put up big numbers most of the time. The key is that Bill Snyder, Dana Dimel and Del Miller recognize that and don't try to force the issue. Grant Gregory is an average-at-best passing quarterback in the Big 12, but the coaches don't try to turn him into Colt McCoy or Landry Jones. They recognize that running the ball, controlling the clock, and limiting turnovers is how to win games with this team. Amazingly, outside of the late INT against Oklahoma last week, this team has not turned the ball over since the Iowa State game.

...throwing it deep on first downs. I may be in the minority in this one, because the inability to convert ended up leading to three second-and-tens, but the two first-down throws to Brandon Banks were good calls. The coordinators seemed to find a weakness, as Banks was open on both throws. Unfortunately, Gregory missed on the first throw (not to mention Banks didn't make the best play on the ball), and Banks just flat dropped what would have been a touchdown on the second throw. So they didn't work, but here's a copy-and-paste of what happened on first down on the next possession:

Gregory, Grant rush for 13 yards to the KU11, 1ST DOWN KS, out-of-bounds (Dudley, Drew).

Even though we couldn't capitalize on the throws, we got KU on its toes, and it opened up a nice running lane for Gregory.

...KU fans claiming that they gave this game away, and that we did nothing to win it. It's clear that these fans have already forgotten how KU had its success in 2007. There is more than one way to win a football game. One way is to line up with superior athletes, chuck it all over the lot, and put up a ton of yards and points. This works fine if you're Texas or Texas Tech or Oklahoma. But there's another way to win football games, and it's something SEC teams have been mastering for years now. Play sound defense that doesn't give up big plays and makes the offense earn everything they get, and protect the ball on offense.

Along with that, it's laughable to claim that KU had more to do with losing this game by turning the ball over than K-State winning it. On both of Todd Reesing's fumbles, the ball was forced out. Josh Moore forced the first one by getting a hat and shoulder right on the ball, and Jeffrey Fitzgerald (I think) slapped the ball out while pursuing from behind on the second one. Now, could both of those have been prevented? Yes, but just about any mistake in a football game can be prevented, it's whether or not the players actually execute. Reesing didn't slide and didn't protect the ball, and our players made him pay for it. On the interception, Reesing could have prevented it by checking down to Opurum in the flat, but he forced it downfield into double coverage and threw it right to Emmanuel Lamur. Again, entirely preventable, but the game comes down to players executing. Our players were in position, and Reesing didn't make the play he should have.

What I didn't like...

...well, um, not much. Moving on.

What it means and where we're going...

In terms of this rivalry, it means the Governor's Cup is back at Vanier Football Complex and that you have scoreboard for the next year over your friends, coworkers and neighbors who are KU fans. In a slightly different sense, it shows a sea tide of change from last year's result. K-State got run over in Lawrence last season by a KU team that ended 8-5. Though yesterday's win wasn't an utter pwning like last year was, it signals something significant in this series. With what was supposed to be their "History Awaits" squad -- now changed to "History, uhh, waits" -- KU couldn't even beat a K-State team that was a popular pick to finish last in the North. Now, with Snyder back and getting this team into position to make a bowl game and in control of its destiny in the Big 12 North, K-State is a team on the rise while KU will have to pick up the pieces after this year as it loses Reesing, Kerry Meier, Dezmon Briscoe, Jake Sharp and Darrell Stuckey.

In terms of the conference race, it once again means that K-State still controls its own destiny in the North. Nebraska's improbable victory over OU last night is neither here nor there, although it certainly wouldn't have hurt to see them lose. If we win next Saturday at home against Missouri and then go to Lincoln and win on 11/21, we will play in Dallas for the Big 12 Championship. That's not to say I won't be cheering like hell for KU to beat Nebraska this weekend, or for Colorado to beat them in Boulder, because a little help never hurts and it's not like we can just count on winning in Lincoln. But the fact remains that if we go 2-0, we will have won the Big 12 North and Snyder will deserve National Coach of the Year honors.

Previous Opponent Roundup

Massachusetts beat Northeastern, 37-7, to move to 5-4 (3-3 CAA) on the season.

Louisiana beat Arkansas State, 21-18, to move to 5-4 (3-2 Sun Belt) on the season.

UCLA finally got a Pac-10 win, beating Washington, 24-23, to move to 4-5 (1-5 Pac-10) on the season.

Nobody cares how Tennessee Tech did.

Recaps for Big 12 opponents are below (Texas Tech was idle).

Texas 35, UCF 3

A bit of a sluggish start (scoreless after one quarter, 14-3 UT lead at halftime) gave way to an easy victory over Central Florida. Colt McCoy put up huge numbers on the day, throwing for 470 yards. A mere 273 of those yards went to Jordan Shipley (did you know he's McCoy's roommate?!?!). Texas has it set on cruise control toward Dallas, with only games against KU, Baylor and Texas A&M remaining.

For more: Burnt Orange Nation

Up next: Baylor (Waco, Texas), 11/14

Colorado 35, Texas A&M 34

I've given up trying to figure out either Colorado or Texas A&M. Colorado hasn't been able to move the ball against a stiff breeze most of the year, and suddenly the Buffs go off for 437 yards against A&M. Hey Aggies, be sure to take your medication this week, this bipolar act is getting old.

For more: The Ralphie Report, I Am The 12th Man

Up next: Colorado vs. Iowa State (Ames, Iowa), 11/14; Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma (Norman, Okla.), 11/14

Oklahoma State 34, Iowa State 8

This game was a real snoozer. I tried to listen to some of it on XM on my way back to Kansas City, but Okie State led 27-0 in the third quarter and nothing of interest was happening. Despite getting Austen Arnaud and Alexander Robinson back on offense, ISU couldn't do anything right in tallying only 242 total yards and one touchdown with the game already well in hand. Good bounceback for Okie State, as the Cowboys are positioning themselves for a nice bowl trip if they finish strong. Meanwhile, the Cyclones are searching for that one more win they need for bowl eligibility.

For more: Clone Chronicles

Up next: Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech (Stillwater, Okla.), 11/14; Iowa State vs. Colorado (Ames, Iowa), 11/14

Nebraska 10, Oklahoma 3

I consider this game some small measure of the universe righting itself after Nebraska turned the ball over eight times in a home loss to Iowa State two weeks ago. Landry Jones apparently was not informed before the game that ~~Shawn~~ Matt O'Hanlon was not on his team, as he proceeded to throw the ball into the Irishman's waiting arms three times (he had five total interceptions in this game). Nebraska's only touchdown drive of the night was a remarkable one-yarder after Landry Jones, you guessed it, threw an interception. For the night, Nebraska "gained" 180 total yards (I want someone to tell me who the last Big 12 team was to win a game in which they gained less than 200 total yards). Nebraska now has a closing stretch that includes road games with KU and Colorado and a home game with K-State. Their defense will shut down or severely limit all three of those teams, but the question is whether their offense can do enough to win (or, at least as was the case last night, not turn the ball over).

For more: Corn Nation, Crimson and Cream Machine

Up next: Nebraska vs. KU (Lawrence, Kan.), 11/14; Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M (Norman, Okla.), 11/14

Week 10: Oklahoma State Week Links and Thoughts

Mark Kieffer — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 02:07:43 -0000

After the performance in College Station, I get the feeling that a lot of ISU fans are disappointed. The best way to get over it is to move on and start looking towards the next opponent, in this case the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

The new depth chart was released yesterday. The biggest change is the RB situation. Bo Williams is now listed as the #2, and Beau Blankenship is listed as the #3. Schwartz is not listed on the chart this week. So many questions have been asked about Bo, and after seeing action last week, breaking off a 44 yard run on his first ever carry, perhaps he's earned some clock. He's been an interesting story this year as people have gone the "secret weapon" angle with him, and hisi debut will add to the legend of Bo Williams.
Austen Arnaud, Alexander Robinson, and Reggie Stephens are all expected to play. Robinson looked healthy (watched the Cyclone Replay), so that's no surprise. I'm still not 100% sure on Arnaud. His injury is definitley worse than originally reported, and he's going to need to have confidence in gripping the ball in order to play. I think if we're going to give the Cowboys a game, he needs to be in and healthy. He's more decisive, can run with more authority, and he's just more comfortable than Tiller is. With Stephens, it's great to have him back for sure; he's a great player. I thought that our O-Line did a great job last week in his absence, however.
Oklahoma State is currently a 7-7.5 point favorite. I'll look at their strengths and weaknesses more in the next day or two as I work on the preview, but at first glance, I think it's a little low. I'll post more on it as I do more research.
Iowa State's Week 11 matchup against Colorado will kickoff at 1pm, and will not be televised. A little dissapointing, as ISU will either be trying to get bowl eligible, or trying to lock in on a bowl berth. Either way, probably the biggest home game in the past 5 years or so, and Cyclone fans will have to get to Jack Trice to see it. I have my ticket and am looking forward to it!
Curious about the payout a team gets for being on TV? The Cyclones will get $301,000 for being on ABC, as opposed to the $175,000 if it were to air on Versus (compared to $0 if not on TV at all). You can already figure the dollars and cents, and how much at a disadvantage ISU can have at times, as being on ABC is a big deal, and happens once every once in a while.

That's the news, and my thoughts about it at the moment. I am hosting the Big 12 Roundtable this week, so look for that on Friday or so. Also, I will do a preview for Oklahoma State, and plan on posting either on Thursday or Friday as well, so that's another thing to look for as well, along with the beginning of basketball coverage as well. Busy indeed, but a lot of fun to be able to get to many of these games, and being around the athletic program as they are looking to be on the way up after these past 3-4 years!

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Iowa State Game Review

Beergut — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 07:58:25 -0000

I haven't been able to watch the game online or on DVD yet, so most of my insight into the game is from looking at the stats and the play-by-play. Bullets, bullets, everyone loves bullets:

We have gone from giving up 6 sacks against Kansas State to one sack in each of the last two games. Ideally, you don't want to give up any sacks, but this constitutes an improvement for our offensive line. Before these last two games, we had given up 16 sacks, or 2.67 sacks per game. Our OL is basically shaving off two lost players per game; that is improvement.
The defense held the leading rusher in the Big 12 (Alexander Robinson) to 76 yards on 20 carries. Good job, defense.
After struggling to force interceptions in our first six games, the secondary now has 4 interceptions in our last two games. Another sign of improvement for our team.

Jeff Fuller's put on a nice show in his first game back at home since his return from injury. He scored our second TD of the first quarter, and had 5 receptions for 67 yards on the day.
The addition of Fuller to our receiving corps makes everyone better. As a defense, who do you double, Uzoma Nwachukwu or Jeff Fuller? Pick your poison.
Second straight game we go with a starting OL of LT Michael Shumard, LG Patrick Lewis, C Kevin Matthews, RG Evan Eike and RT Lee Grimes. Second straight game we rush for over 250 yards. Coincidence? I think not. Moving Grimes to the left side and starting Eike on the right seems to have really solidified the middle of our line.
We are currently in the top 5 in the nation in total offense, and we're two-thirds of the way through the regular season. I don't remember the last time we had an offense that was ranked so highly nationally this late in the year.
The 10 points Iowa State scored is the fewest points we've given up in Big 12 play since playing Baylor in 2007.
We have gone over 200 yards rushing in five of our eight games so far this season.
We have also exceeded 500 yards of total offense in five of eight games this season.
Iowa State is 4th in the Big 12 in scoring defense, giving up 23 points per game, so it isn't like we were playing little sisters of the poor on Saturday.
If we keep up our current production on offense we will set a new record for offensive production for Aggie football. The current record is held by the 1990 team, at 471.1 yards per game.