SB Nation - Fred Garrin

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:13 -0000

With basketball and the Mark Mangino Soap Opera for Dudes, it's been easy to become distracted from the fact that Mizzou has another home football game to play! I'm figuring Mizzou hasn't forgotten...at least I hope they haven't, as ISU's good enough to pop you in the chin if you let your guard down. Just ask Nebraska.

With his postgame celebration after Iowa State's win over Nebraska, I think it's safe to say that Paul Rhoads became most Big 12 North fans' second-favorite coach (or in the case of Colorado fans, maybe even their favorite). He is a passionate guy who, as we talked about this summer, seems to consider Iowa State a destination job, and in Year One of the Rhoads tenure, Iowa State is 6-5 and staring a bowl bid in the face. While their rankings below (and the fact that they've only beaten one team with a winning record, and it took eight turnovers to do so) suggest a relatively easy win for Missouri, it is certainly worth noting that they beat both Baylor and Nebraska this year, something Mizzou was unable to do. If Missouri plays well, as well as they did against Kansas State last week, they will win this game. But if they don't, Iowa State has proven quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunities given them and sneaking out with a seventh win.

Offense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

If fans have seen any one game Iowa State has played this year, it was probably the Nebraska game, which would give you the impression of a team light on offense but heavy on defensive playmakers. For the season, that really has not been the case. Statistically, they are much more successful on offense than defense; the key for the Cyclones, in both wins and losses, has been turnovers.

Iowa State's 6 wins: 22 takeaways (3.7 per game), 9 turnovers (1.5 per game), +13 turnover margin
Iowa State's 5 losses: 7 takeaways (1.4 per game), 13 turnovers (2.6 per game), -6 turnover margin

If stripping the ball is a skill, Paul Rhoads has taught it well. ISU has forced 29 fumbles this year (2.6 per game), almost three per game, and it has served them well against careless teams. Missouri has done well in only fumbling 14 times on the season (1.4 per game), but caution will be infinitely better than stretching for the extra yard on Saturday. Even taking the Nebraska game (and its +8 margin) out of the equation, ISU has still been good at taking the ball away, and it has still mattered a ridiculous amount toward whether they win or lose.

Anyway, to the offense. The numbers are, for the most part, pretty decent, though the after-the-jump conference figures tell you an interesting story.

Iowa State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	ISU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	107.3 (51)	105.1 (47)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	109.6 (31)	100.5 (60)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	105.9 (64)	111.8 (43)

Rushing S&P+	106.5 (52)	113.5 (38)
Passing S&P+	109.4 (49)	97.2 (63)

Standard Downs S&P+	106.5 (51)	115.4 (24)
Passing Downs S&P+	103.9 (59)	96.7 (69)

Red Zone S&P+	115.8 (39)	117.4 (31)

Q1 S&P+	96.3 (84)	92.2 (80)
Q2 S&P+	101.1 (65)	132.1 (13)
Q3 S&P+	130.2 (16)	105.5 (51)
Q4 S&P+	104.7 (63)	114.3 (33)

1st Down S&P+	110.8 (39)	109.6 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	100.7 (72)	105.4 (52)
3rd Down S&P+	103.2 (70)	110.2 (43)

Line Yards+	113.9 (23)	102.3 (52)
Close Sack Rate+	232.2 (6)	82.1 (88)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	125.8 (44) / 200.9 (18)	114.8 (44) / 104.4 (58)

I listed 19 categories above, and in half of them, ISU ranks between 30th and 60th. That's pretty much the definition of "decent." They are outstanding on the offensive line -- by far the strongest in the North division according to these statistics -- but their skill position players are, well, somewhat lacking in skill. They are, however, extremely efficient, which is a nice quality to have against a Missouri defense that sacrifices efficiency for limited big plays. I will be interested to see how much Missouri adjusts its defensive gameplan to account for short passes, though I personally doubt they will tinker much. I'm pretty sure they will be perfectly content with doing what they did against K-State: allowing all the yardage they want between the 30s, then cracking down in the red zone.

These numbers, however, do not tell the entire story. For that, we need to go to their "Non-Conference vs Conference Play" numbers after the jump.

ISU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	107.3	94.1
Close SR+	106.2	103.9
Close PPP+	106.5	81.0

Rushing S&P+	115.6	98.5
Passing S&P+	97.1	94.4

Standard Downs S&P+	112.2	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	95.5	97.2

Red Zone S&P+	105.4	95.0

Q1 S&P+	98.7	84.7
Q2 S&P+	107.1	95.8
Q3 S&P+	107.6	111.0
Q4 S&P+	100.6	97.2

Note: you'll see that some of the conference/non-conference averages do not really match up with the season averages above. This is because I was looking at per-game data for the conference breakout, and one really good or really bad game can skew those numbers pretty considerably. For the full-season data, I look at every play (a sample size of, well a lot of plays) instead of "+" scores from a sample size of ten games. If this disclaimer didn't make any sense, don't worry about it. It's not that important, and I'm not really feeling like an A+ wordsmith at the moment.

Here is a game-by-game look at Iowa State's scoring progression this year: 34, 3, 34, 31, 23, 36, 24, 9, 10, 8, 17. After averaging 26.4 points over their first six games, the Cyclones have managed just 11.0 points in their last four. Thanks in part to turnovers and improving defense, they have gone 2-2 in that span, but this does start to take the look of a "Score 24 points and you'll probably win" game. We know that Baylor wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire before they came to Faurot Field two weeks ago, but the matchups in this game are not the same. Baylor doesn't have a lot of skill at wide receiver, but they have pure speed, and they burned Missouri with it. Iowa State quite frankly just doesn't have that speed. Their offense resembles K-State's without Brandon Banks--solid, strong running back, good tight end play (not that KSU showed any of that against Mizzou), and a big bunch of possession receivers.

The passing game has remained rather consistent throughout the season, but consistency isn't a great trait when you're just consistently being slightly below average. The running game, meanwhile, has regressed considerably, from rock solid in September to distinctly average in October and November. Consequently, they have remained about the same on passing downs, but they have fallen off on standard downs, which has resulted in a lot more passing downs.

When ISU Has the Ball...
ISU Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
ISU Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	later in halves

Mizzou Advantages:

Points Per Play+ (explosiveness)
Rushing
Standard Downs
Red Zone (slightly)
Q2, Q4
2nd, 3rd Down

And for ISU...

Success Rate+ (efficiency)
Passing (slightly)
Q3
Line Yards, Sack Rates

It doesn't speak kindly of Alexander Robinson that Iowa State's run blocking numbers are so good, yet their actual rushing numbers are so average. In all, you can kind of see where both teams might succeed. Iowa State will succeed by playing well in the trenches and pulling off as many short, quick passes as they can manage. Missouri will succeed by using their superior linebackers to limit the running game, by tackling well, and by making stops on standard downs to force passing downs.

Quarterback

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

Austen Arnaud: 131-for-237 passing, 1,550 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INT (119.3 efficiency); 479 rushing yards, 7 TD
Jerome Tiller: 41-for-73 passing, 376 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT (93.0 efficiency); 216 rushing yards, 2 TD

For the second straight season, Austen Arnaud has put together numbers that are ... perfectly average. ISU has been decent in the passing game (with little help from the receiving corps), and Arnaud has become more of a threat with his legs this year, and he is by all means a solid quarterback. He will never threaten for all-conference honors, and honestly he seems like he should be scarier than he is -- strong arm, good legs, etc. --but he is competent. I mean this entire paragraph as neither a bad thing nor a particularly bad thing.

Running Back

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in Adjusted POE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Alexander Robinson: 196 carries, 1,002 yards (5.1 per carry), 6 TD; 10 receptions, 200 yards (20.0 per catch), 3 TD
Jeremiah Schwartz: 71 carries, 264 yards (3.7 per carry)

Again, Robinson's numbers look strong, and he was huge against Missouri at Faurot Field two years ago, but once you factor line play into the equation, he starts to look very average, very quickly. He is a workhorse, however, and there is value in that. In the last five games that he has played (he missed the Nebraska game with a groin injury), he has averaged 22.4 carries per game, and like KSU's Daniel Thomas, ISU will absolutely lean on him as much as they can. It's just that, in those five games, he's only averaged over 5.0 yards per carry once. The injury has clearly affected his explosiveness.

In the nine games he's played (he only got 4 carries against KSU, so we're not counting that one here), here are his yards per carry:

5.2, 5.3, 6.2, 5.9, 5.6, 4.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.6

Even last week against Colorado, when he went for 138 yards (plus 20 yards receiving), he still averaged less than five yards. The trick with Robinson is, the longer ISU stays in the game, the more they can pound away at you with him. But if you get a lead, then they don't know where to go with the ball. He still averaged 18 carries a game in blowout losses against OSU and ATM, but it didn't help much, as ISU scored only 18 points combined.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

WR Marquis Hamilton (Sr.): 41 receptions, 542 yards (13.2 per catch), 4 TD
WR Jake Williams (Jr.): 26 receptions, 297 yards (11.4 per catch), 3 TD
WR Josh Lenz (Fr.): 20 receptions, 186 yards (9.3 per catch)
WR Darius Darks (So.): 17 receptions, 158 yards (9.3 per catch), 1 TD
WR Darius Reynolds (Jr.): 13 receptions, 72 yards (5.5 per catch!)

TE Derrick Catlett (Sr.): 25 receptions, 277 yards (11.1 per catch), 2 TD
TE Collin Franklin (Jr.): 14 receptions, 149 yards (10.6 per catch)

If a wide receiver is making a big play, it is almost certainly coming from Marquis Hamilton, who seems to be in his 19th year in Ames. Otherwise, this is as nondescript a WR corps as you will find. The good news for ISU is, they have a pair of rock solid tight ends, and they will use them a lot if given the opportunity. Of ISU's 12 complete passes last week, five went to the tight ends. Derrick Catlett very much impressed me in last year's Mizzou-ISU game, and Mizzou very much needs to account for him. Still, though, having good tight ends only helps with efficiency, not so much explosiveness. If Mizzou tackles well and plays smart, this unit simply will not have much of a day.

Offensive Line

Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.
Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Consider this the best test of the month for Mizzou's improving, and almost awesome, defensive line. As mentioned in the above excerpt, this is a big, strong offensive line, and they have the potential to wear you down if you are allowing too many first downs. They are good in pass protection, but their strength is in the running game. With an elite back, the run blocking really could have made the difference between six wins and a North title. This is Iowa State's single strongest unit.

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Defense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

ISU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	ISU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	86.5 (100)	116.2 (28)
Close Success Rate+	83.1 (117)	106.7 (41)
Close PPP+	91.9 (73)	133.1 (22)

Rushing S&P+	97.5 (74)	102.5 (67)
Passing S&P+	78.2 (111)	126.7 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	90.7 (95)	113.3 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	91.5 (87)	115.4 (43)

Red Zone S&P+	98.9 (69)	79.3 (108)

Q1 S&P+	79.2 (106)	120.9 (38)
Q2 S&P+	94.8 (75)	114.9 (43)
Q3 S&P+	90.6 (84)	118.1 (32)
Q4 S&P+	92.9 (79)	107.0 (56)

1st Down S&P+	97.2 (70)	114.1 (34)
2nd Down S&P+	82.3 (107)	112.0 (48)
3rd Down S&P+	87.4 (95)	118.5 (35)

Line Yards+	89.6 (100)	99.1 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	44.9 (119)	140.4 (29)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	51.7 (114) / 76.9 (94)	228.7 (11) / 110.9 (53)

When they are not forcing turnovers, they are not getting the job done.

ISU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	98.8	96.7
Close SR+	99.6	86.9
Close PPP+	98.7	120.5

Rushing S&P+	131.4	113.4
Passing S&P+	81.7	91.5

Standard Downs S&P+	96.7	98.6
Passing Downs S&P+	107.1	119.1

Red Zone S&P+	115.1	129.5

Q1 S&P+	100.0	102.0
Q2 S&P+	125.8	124.0
Q3 S&P+	83.9	111.7
Q4 S&P+	132.5	104.4

So as the season has progressed, Iowa State has gotten better defending the pass and worse defending the rush. Against Missouri, that might not necessarily be a bad thing for them. You have to account for Mizzou's pass before you worry about the run.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Push
Missouri Passing	Big Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	The rest of the game

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, Points Per Play+
Rushing (slight)
Passing (huge)
Standard Downs, Passing Downs
Q1-Q4
1st-3rd Down
Line Yards
Sack Rates (HUGE)

ISU's advantages:

Red Zone

Two quick notes:

ANY sack Mizzou gives up is a huge failure. ISU has generated one of the worst pass rushes in the country.
Each of the last two games, a key factor has been Touchdowns vs Field Goals. ISU's only significant advantage is in the Red Zone, but if they can hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven, they will stay in the game for longer and longer. And as mentioned above, the longer they stay in this game, the longer they can pound away at Mizzou with their big linemen in run blocking.

Defensive Line

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

DE Christopher Lyle: 41.0 tackles, 9.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH, 3 PBU
DT Nate Frere: 17.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 QBH
DT Bailey Johnson: 15.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks
DE Patrick Neal: 14.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer: 12.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
DT Austin Alburtis: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

I called this unit a relative strength in the offseason, but it has been absolutely brutal this year. Chris Lyle has put together some nice numbers, but the rest of the line has been, to put it kindly, iffy. Mizzou's decent-not-great offensive line should be able to impose its will on this unit, which ranks 100th or worse in both line yards and sack rates.

Linebackers

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it.

Jesse Smith: 88.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 3 QBH, 5 PBU
Fred Garrin: 60.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 4 PBU
Josh Raven: 27.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH
Jake Knott: 16.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
A.J. Klein: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

On the other hand, ISU's linebackers been more disruptive than expected, at least in terms of getting a hand in on turnovers. Josh Raven has been the only behind-the-line-of-scrimmage threat, and this isn't a wonderful unit by any means, but the five players above have forced six fumbles, recovered two, and picked off four passes. If Blaine Gabbert gets a little too greedy and locks in on a receiver, the back seven of ISU's defense might make him pay.

Secondary

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

S James Smith: 61.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 3 FR, 5 PBU
S David Sims: 54.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 4 INT, 3 FF, 1 FR
CB Leonard Johnson: 46.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 PBU
CB Kennard Banks: 42.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 5 PBU
S Michael O'Connell: 27.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBU
CB Ter'ran Benton: 26.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
CB Jeremy Reeves: 10.0 tackles

It's interesting: the Iowa State secondary has been about as disruptive a secondary as you could ask for. Eleven tackles for loss, nine interceptions, seven forced fumbles, seven recovered fumbles, a ton of broken-up passes ... and yet, when they are not making huge plays, they're leaking yardage like our old dishwasher leaked water. This is about as all-or-nothing a unit as you're going to find, and it is a must that Mizzou play smart in their passing game. If Gabbert makes the smart throw, and the receivers hold onto the ball (Jerrell Jackson, I'm looking in your general direction), then they should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. But ISU is good at turning little mistakes into large mistakes. Speaking of mistakes...

Injured Blaine Gabbert: 42-for-95 passing (44.2%), 512 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD (1.1% of passes), 5 INT (5.3%)
Healthy Blaine Gabbert: 159-for-246 (64.6%), 2,150 yards (8.7 per pass), 19 TD (7.7%), 2 INT (0.8%)

WOW. I realize that his injury coincided perfectly with the best threesome of pass defenses that Missouri faced this year, and I realize he wouldn't have produced his season averages in 11 quarters against Nebraska, OSU, and Texas, but ... still ... wow. Healthy Gabbert is completing 20% more of his passes than Injured Gabbert, for 3.3 more yards per pass, throwing TDs at a 7x higher rate, while throwing INTs at almost a 7x lower rate. It's an amazing question to wonder what Gabbert's already strong numbers would have looked like had Ndamukong Suh not rolled him up.

In the end, Healthy Gabbert is taking on a secondary that, while more disruptive, is really no better than Kansas State's ... and with help from Danario Alexander, he carved K-State up quite nicely. I'm curious how Mizzou will handle the loss of Jared Perry, particularly who becomes the fourth major target, assuming Jerrell Jackson is now #2 and Wes Kemp #3 (or vice versa). Does long-lost Andrew Jones join the fray again? Does somebody like Brandon Gerau, Rolandis Woodland, or T.J. Moe suddenly see a couple passes? Danario Alexander already catches a higher percentage of his team's passes than any other major receiver, so we can't really lean on him more than we already do.

Special Teams

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Punt Returns Rank: 104th (Josh Lenz: 19 returns, 4.7 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 24th (Mike Brandtner: 56 punts, 40.5 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 56th (Leonard Johnson: 17 returns, 20.4 avg; David Sims: 15 returns, 22.9 avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 7th (Grant Mahoney: 2 touchbacks in 48 kickoffs)

Field Goals: 98th (Grant Mahoney: 12-for-19, Long: 52)
PATs: 118th (Grant Mahoney: 21-for-25)

Another all-or-nothing unit, ISU's coverage teams are rock solid. They're 24th in Net Punting and 7th in Net Kickoffs, but they pretty much stink on ice at everything else. They're bad at returning punts, they're bad at place-kicking, and they're only okay at kickoff returns. (Of course, "okay at kickoff returns" could actually mean "good at kickoff returns" against Missouri. We'll see.) Mizzou has a solid advantage here if Jake Harry is getting good bounces and there are no complete debacles at kickoff return.

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Three Keys to the Game

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

It's pretty obvious that Iowa State is well above average in terms of forcing fumbles and intercepting passes. If it is a technique that can be learned, they've learned it. Meanwhile, Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

Mizzou had to settle for three field goals against Baylor, and even though The Amazing Grant Ressel made them all, settling for them in the first place cost them quite a bit in an eight-point win. Meanwhile, Missouri held K-State to four field goals last Saturday, and while their final winning margin suggests it probably wouldn't have made a difference, it did.

Defenses are slowly starting to catch up to offenses again, especially in the red zone, and it seems touchdowns have been much harder to come by for a lot of teams this year. If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not. But if they do ISU some favors, and the Cyclones are able to generate some bigger plays, then ... well, we saw what happens in that scenario two weeks ago against Baylor. Play disciplined on defense, do your job, and Iowa State will need another +8 turnover margin to win the game.

Prediction

Not surprisingly, the numbers like Mizzou quite a bit in this one. I don't believe too heavily in things like Senior Day emotion playing a big role or anything -- to me, it could almost be a detriment as much as an asset -- but in the end, emotion should even out, and Mizzou should move to 7-4. I cannot commend enough the job that Paul Rhoads has done this season, taking a group that had no idea how to win, and teaching them how to seize every opportunity and win some ball games. Still, though, if Missouri doesn't turn the ball over and give ISU extra opportunities, they should be able to handle Iowa State relatively easily. Make mistakes, however, and you will pay. The numbers say Mizzou by 18, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Iowa State 13.

Week 7 Wrap-Up

Mark Kieffer — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 16:53:02 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2 months ago: Iowa State quarterback Austen Arnaud (4) celebrates with teammates Derrick Catlett, center, Alex Alvarez (77) and Jake Williams, right, after Cetlett's touchdown reception during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009, in Ames, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Browse more photos »

Final - 10.17.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
Baylor Bears	3	0	0	7	10
Iowa St. Cyclones	0	14	10	0	24

Complete Coverage >

We done did it! ISU finally won a Big 12 game, the first in nearly two years (1-11 last twelve Big 12 games now). Below are some thoughts on the game:

What I liked:

We won. I know it was a depleted Baylor team, but we won a conference game. Hopefully we can pick up a couple more, to shut up all the a-holes that predicted we'd win 1-2 games, and go o-fer in the conference again. We picked up our first Big 12 win since our win over Colorado on November 10th, 2007. We are just past the halfway point of the season with a winning record. I'd love to see if this team could find a way to get to 6 wins this year.
ISU rushed for 240 yards. It started off kind of slow, but between A-Rob, Tiller (yes, Tiller), Arnaud, and Schwartz, ISU picked up a lot of rushing yards this game.
Winning the turnover battle. ISU was +2, as we picked off Baylor 3 times, and got picked once.
Tiller's running ability -- outside the tackles. The guy is quick. I saw it in the Spring Game, and we saw more of it last night. Inside the tackles, not so much. The guy is skinnier than most of our WRs. He does not have the ability to fight for that extra yard or two, simply because just isn't as strong.
Baylor's sense of urgency on the first possession in the second half. So Baylor is down 14-3 with 13 or 14 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, on their own 32 with a 4th and 1 situation. Easy call here, punt the ball right? NOPE! Instead, Baylor goes for it on 4th and 1, doesn't make it, and it sets up an ISU field goal. Just way too early to be thinking of going for it, but I guess it says a lot about what the coach thought of his team's chances of getting back in the game.

What I didn't like:

Getting off to a slow start. The first quarter was pretty unimpressive from both sides. Just bad offensive execution, and some bad defense as well. Often times the first handful of plays offensivley are scripted and/or they are plays that you worked on a lot that week. It'd be nice to get an opening TD or something like that.
Bad tackling. Baylor had to abandon the run due to getting down early, but their RBs picked up many extra yards (especially in that first quarter) due to mistackling. The same goes for their WRs on the short passes. I think we did a better job of it as the game went on, but how we started could have really hurted us if we were playing a better offense.
Arnaud's interception. Not trying to throw him under the bus or anything like that, but when you have the chance to go up 14-3, and you throw a pick in the end zone, giving the other team enough time to go down the field to make it a 1 possession game, it's not good. Fortunatley, Baylor's offense fizzled about midfield, but it could've been 14-10, or 14-6, with Baylor getting the ball first in the third quarter. A better team, may have hurt us more off the turnover.
Baylor's weak ass offense. Honestly, this was the weakest shit I've seen from a Big 12 team in a while. The story of their offense was screen passes. At first they worked as ISU had issues with tackling, but eventually the effectiveness was lost. Maybe part of this was due to their QB's lack of ability, but there are plenty of holes in the secondary down the field. Now, I like short passes, but you have to mix it up with taking some shots down the field to keep the defense honest. As an ISU fan, I liked this, but I think there was some poor play calling with Baylor.
Missing too many field goals. The first one, I won't hold against Mahoney as it was a 50 yarder, which I think is in his range but one can't look at is as an automatic in college football at all. The other two were from 35 and 30 yards away, however. I think on all of these they were too wide. I know nothing about kicking, but I hope he figures it out. Against better teams, we may need those 6 to 9 points we left on the field.
Lack of QB pressure on defense. ISU had one official sack, and it was a coverage sack as their QB had a lot of time to throw, but simply no one was open. There were some other times they brought down the QB, but in the stats, it just goes as a run for negative yards. Still, those were mostly due to the QB having 4+ seconds to throw, couldn't find anyone, ran around and got brought down. Against KU we saw what giving too much time to a QB can do to you. We did have 5 QB hurries vs. 0 last week against KU, so perhaps we are improving, but it isn't as much as I'd like to see. As long was the opposing QB has plenty of time, the good ones will hurt us. Fortunatley, Szymanski is not a good QB.

I am happy that the team won, but this was a game that could have been a blowout had the execution been better. We need to play better than this if we are going to beat a Nebraska.

Notes:

Alexander Robinson appeared to have reinjured himself yet again, and it didn't look good. Getting all the way back from an injured groin takes a good amount of rest. I just hope he's alright.
Austen Arnaud left the game in the third quarter due to a bruised throwing hand. This is why Tiller played for almost the entire second half.

Props:

After suspending for a week, I've decided to bring my props back:

Marquis Hamilton - 9 catches for 97 yards, including hanging on to a big hit from Jordan Lake coming across the middle. In my pregame writeup, I talked about our receivers holding onto the ball coming across the middle because Lake is the kind of hard-hitting safety that will make you pay.
Josh Lenz - 7 catches for 43 yards, with no drops either. I'm just impressed that this guy is finding his way on the field and making plays. Before the season had started, I thought no way he'd see some time, but he has, and done pretty well.
Derrick Catlett - 5 catches for 52 yards, and 1 TD
Jerome Tiller - 7 of 8 passing for 48 yards, and 10 rushes for 74 yards and 1 TD. Took advantage of having the chance to play for almost half of the game. Still has a lot to work on, but we didn't lose anything by having Tiller out there, which is great to have in a backup.
Fred Garrin - 7 tackles, 2 interceptions. Yes the balls were thrown right to him, but I see many linebackers dropping these balls. Both of these were as Baylor was starting to get into Cyclone territory and were drive-killers for them.
Leonard Johnson - 5 tackles (one for loss), 1 interception. Made a nice jumping catch near the sideline on a deep pass to prevent the big play from Baylor.

Now the attention turns to Nebraska next week. Nebraska is the better team in my mind, but who knows what will happen? The Big 12 just saw Colorado beat KU (and ISU almost beat KU), and K-State put up 62 points against aTm.

New Depth Chart Released

Mark Kieffer — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 03:12:18 -0000

Per Cyclones.com

The Cyclones Football team released the latest depth chart tonight. I would assume that barring injury these will be how it plays out for the NDSU game, but these types of things are always subject to change.

Here's a quick look (in order from starter to 3rd string):

Offense:

QB: Austen Arnaud, Jerome Tiller

RB: Alexander Robinson, Jeremiah Schwartz, Bo Williams

WR1: Marquis Hamilton, Jake Williams, Houston Jones

WR2: Sedrick Johnson, Joel Zitek

WR3: Darius Reynolds, Josh Lenz, Darius Darks, Jason Carlson

TE: Collin Franklin, Derrick Catlett

LT: Kelechi Osemele, Brayden Burris

LG: Alex Alvarez, Hayworth Hicks

C: Reggie Stephens, Sean Smith

RG: Ben Lamaak, Trey Baysinger

RT: Scott Haughton, Zack Spears

Not too many surprises with the offense. The Offensive Line was pretty much set and Osemele was the leading name for that LT spot for a while. Don't freak out by seeing Darks down so low on the Depth Chart. He's trying to overcome a hamstring injury and was forced to miss a lot of time during fall camp. Bo Williams drops to 3rd, but I don't think it's anything against him, as he's a more of a traditional type of a back, as opposed to a receiver in the backfield. Overall there wasn't as many position battles for the Offense as there was for the Defense.

Defense:

LE: Rashawn Parker, Cleyon Laing, Patrick Neal

DT: Austin Alburtis, Bailey Johnson, Taylor Mansfield

NG: Nate Frere, Stephen Ruempolhamer, Jerrod Black

RE: Christopher Lyle, Roosevelt Maggitt

Sam: Josh Raven, Jacob Lattimer

Mike: Jesse Smith, Matt Taufoou, A.J. Klein

Will: Fred Garrin, Derec Schmidgall, Jake Knott

RCB: Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell

LCB: Kennard Banks, Ter'ran Benton, Jeremy Reeves

SS: David Sims, Michael O'Connell, Zac Sandvig

FS: James Smith, Alan Bell

On Defense, not too many suprises. I suppose the notable one for me is that I was under the impression that Taufoou was going to play that Sam spot, but I guess not. No suprises in the Secondary at all.

On the Defensive Line, I knew the DT and RE spot would be wide open, and we will learn more about Lyle and Alburtis as the season goes on. This unit is going to have the most questions in my mind because there are two new starters, and also because the unit was not very good last year.

I'm not going to create a separate section for this, but it appears that LJ is going to return Kicks and Punts, but there are a lot of guys listed there. There was some discussion about having LJ just focus on defense and having someone else do it, and I also thought that Darius Reynolds may do some returns. I guess with Darius, however, I'd rather be a starting WR than just a return guy.

I know this news has me fired up for the football season! It's nice to get an idea of where people are going to be playing and what we might expect for next year.

What are your thoughts on the Depth Chart? Any surprises?

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview - Iowa State

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 02:53:05 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2009 marks the beginning of the Paul Rhoads era at ISU

Browse more photos »

The SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview will post Friday, at Ralphie Report. This is a high level preview of Iowa State, and my conference predictions. If you have been reading my more detailed Iowa State and Big 12 previews, this will provide a summary of what you've been reading.If you are new to the site, welcome and enjoy your stay at Clone Chronicles!

Offense (9 Returning Starters):

The offense should be a strength for the Cyclones. The Cyclones have an entirely new coaching staff, with Tom Herman (formerly of Rice) as the new OC. The Cyclones are going to be running a no-huddle spread offense, and having seen Herman's track record, many believe (or at least hope) that the Cyclones will be able to put up some serious points. The one thing we learned about the Big 12 last year, is that you have to score if you want to win.

Passing: The Cyclones offense will be lead by returning starting QB, Austen Arnaud, a junior from Ames, IA. In 2008 Arnaud completed 61% of his passes, threw for for 2792 yards, 15 TDs, and 10 INTs. Arnaud also ran for 400 yards and scored 5 TDs on the ground. Arnaud will be joined by a young, but talented receiving corps., lead by Sophomore WR Darius Darks (2nd on the team last year as a True Freshmen with 49 Catches), JUCO-Transfer Darius Reynolds, Sophomore Sedrick Johnson, and Senior Marquis Hamilton. One can expect to see the Cyclones run 3 and 4 WR sets, as WR is the deepest position on the offense. Not to be forgotten is Senior TE, Derrick Catlett who caught 20 passes for 230 yards in 2008.

Running: The running game has been a somewhat hot topic for Cyclones fans this offseason. Returning starter Alexander Robinson, a Junior from Minneapolis, is believed to be the starting RB. Herman likes to use the RB as a receiver, and Robinson has the hands as he caught 17 passes for 160 yards in 2008, slightly down from 20 he caught in 2007. The running back corps also has Bo Williams a transfer from Florida, and Jeremiah Schwartz, a Redshirt Freshmen entering his first season. Williams has a bruising running style, but it is not clear if he has the hands to catch the ball out of the backfield. Schwartz is a change-of-pace back who is quick and can elude tacklers. True Freshmen Beau Blankenship has reportedly done well in camp, but I would not be suprised to see him redshirt.

Offensive Line: The Cyclones offensive line was the achillies heel of the offense. This is obviously not the spot you want to have your major weakness. It's also not surprising when you have the skill position talent the Cyclones have, but only win 2 games the year before. The big move on the offensive line is All-Big 12 Caliber Senior OG Reggie Stephens has moved to C, and Junior C Alex Alvarez will move to OG. The good news about this group is there is a lot of experience, as 4 of the starters return from last year. The 5th starter is an uncertainty at this point (at least to me). There appears to be a hole at OT, and I've heard names such as Keleichi Osemele, Hayworth Hicks, Zack Spears, and others. The unit is looking to be one of the largest in College Football, averaging 320+lbs. Bottom line is this: the OL was weak last year, and there is a lot of returning experience coming back. The hope is that these guys can improve and stay healthy, as there isn't a lot of depth. If the OL can just get to below-average, instead of bad, the Cyclones could have a nice season offensively.

Key Additions: JUCO WR Darius Reynolds, RB Schwartz (redshirt off), RB Bo Williams (transfer from Florida)

Key Losses: WR RJ Sumrall, OT Doug Dedrick, C Mike Knapp

What you can expect to see from the Cyclones is 75-80% passing, and lots of short dump passes. With a weaker OL, there won't be many running lanes, and Arnaud won't have a lot of time to make deep throws. The Big 12 can put up points, and the defenses will be questionable. If the Cyclones are going to win games, it will have to be done by putting up a lot of points through the air.

Defense (6 Returning Starters)

The Cyclones defense was a disaster last year, allowing almost 36 points per game, 453 yards of offense (277 passing, 176 rushing), and I wouldn't be surprised if they lead the nation in missed tackles. New DC Wally Burnham is a czar at stopping spread offenses, and he will have his work cut out for him with this group.

Defensive Line: Last year the Defensive Line was a weak link for the Cyclones, as evidenced by the rushing yards allowed. The guys got pushed around on running plays, and on passing plays could not put pressure on the QB. This year's group is led by Seniors DE Rashawn Parker and DT Nate Frere. Numerous names have been thrown out there for the other DE and DT spot, and I will not even try to speculate. Frere and Parker are good players, but if the other 2 guys aren't as productive, it will be easy for opposing linemen to double these guys, and run the ball away from them.

Linebackers: The linebacking group had it's fair share of problems as well. There were a lot of missed tackles in the open field, which attributed for longer gains on the ground and after the catch. Seniors MLB Jesse Smith and OLB Fred Garrin will lead the group. Adding JUCO OLB Matt Taufoou will hopefully improve the unit drastically.

Secondary: By looking at the stats last year, one would make the conclusion that ISU's secondary was horrible, but that wasn't necessarily the case. The DL not being able to put pressure on the QB, gave opposing QBs plenty of time to find holes in the zone. Sophomore CB Leonard Johnson has the potential to be a shutdown corner in the Big 12, while Senior CB Kennard Banks (who was injured a lot of last year) is a solid player. DC Wally Burnham has even said that these two guys will allow for the Cyclones to be able to mix up coverages and even blitz. The rest of the unit will include JUCO SS David Sims, and Senior FS James Smith.

Overall, I'd expect to see the Cyclones defense find creative ways to put pressure on the QB. Last year, the staff was all about staying in a base defense, and hoping the DL would somehow get good over the course of the season, as we saw very little blitzing. I think Burnham understands that you have to find a way to pressure the QB, especially in the Big 12. You take a risk when you blitz, but if the DL can't put on pressure, you have to find other ways to do it. If the Cyclones can find ways to put pressure, and the team can improve their tackling, this could be an average defense (instead of a defense ranked in the triple digits).

Key Additions: JUCO LB Matt Taufoou, JUCO SS David Sims

Key Departures: DE Kurtis Taylor, DT Michael Tate, LB Michael Bibbs, SS Brandon Hunley

Special Teams (4 Returning Starters)

To avoid being confusing, I am not including the FG protection, Punt protection, Kickoff Coverage, etc. When I talk Special Teams in this section, I am talking about K, P, KR, and PR.

Once an area that haunted the 'Clones under McCarney, Special Teams was a bright spot for ISU last year. All Big 12 Caliber P Mike Brandtner returns for his Senior Year, and strong legged K Grant Mahoney comes back for his Sophomore Year. Mahoney has the range (48 was his longest FG), but needs to improve on his 68% accuracy.

Last year Leonard Johnson has a great year returning kicks, averaging a little over 26 yards per return. It is unclear whether Johnson will be returning Kicks and/or Punts this season, and from the reports from camp, WR Darius Reynolds could be seeing some action as a return man as well. Regardless of who's returning, it's going to be an explosive and talented group.

Overall, I look for ISU to have one of the best Special Teams Units in All of the Big 12, and that is something I didn't think I'd ever say about ISU a few years ago.

Season Forecast:

Big 12 North:

Nebraska: 6-2 (9-3 overall)
Kansas: 5-3 (9-3 overall)
Missouri: 4-4 (7-5 overall)
Kansas State: 3-5 (6-6 overall)
ISU: 2-6 (6-6 overall)
Colorado: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 South:

Oklahoma: 8-0 (12-0 overall)
Texas: 7-1 (11-1 overall)
Texas Tech: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Oklahoma State: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Baylor: 1-7 (4-8 overall)
Texas A&M: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma over Nebraska

National Championship Game: Oklahoma over Alabama

For more reading on my ISU Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Third Quarter

Part 4: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Fourth Quarter

For more reading on my Big 12 Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Third AND Fourth Quarter

Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 16:00:11 -0000

Yesterday we looked at an Iowa State offense that has shown glimpses of potential...but nearly enough of them to keep up in the Big 12 arms race. Now to the defense, which has shown...well...much less potential.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 89.6 (#93)
Success Rate+: 92.1 (#90)
PPP+: 86.8 (#96)

Standard Downs S&P+: 91.0 (#94)
Passing Downs S&P+: 82.3 (#103)

Redzone S&P+: 85.8 (#105)

Q1 S&P+: 102.2 (#56)
Q2 S&P+: 80.1 (#112)
Q3 S&P+: 93.9 (#80)
Q4 S&P+: 81.3 (#118)

1st Down S&P+: 94.5 (#79)
2nd Down S&P+: 84.1 (#104)
3rd Down S&P+: 81.5 (#109)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 96.6 (#76)
Rushing SR+: 99.6 (#63)
Rushing PPP+: 92.6 (#81)

Standard Downs: 97.1 (#75)
Passing Downs: 85.3 (#92)

Redzone: 80.8 (#112)

Line Yards+: 99.9 (#55)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 81.8 (#109)
Passing SR+: 84.0 (#115)
Passing PPP+: 79.7 (#102)

Standard Downs: 83.2 (#113)
Passing Downs: 80.6 (#104)

Redzone: 88.7 (#86)

Adj. Sack Rate: 85.1 (#79)

Where Iowa State was good (or at least decent):

Line Yards+ (i.e. defensive line run support)
Q1 Defense

End of list. Despite being a smidge undersized, the defensive line did stand up well to run blocking, and they were on par with Kansas in terms of pass rushing, so we'll call the D-line a relative strength. And from their first-quarter success, we'll derive that they, in general, had decent enough game plans but not the talent/in-game adjustments to survive over 60 minutes.

Beyond that? Pretty much all bad. I make general assumptions sometimes with the data, assumptions like "Teams coached by prodigies who were previously strong defensive coordinators will tend to be pretty good on Passing Downs." No dice here. The 'Clones were bad on Standard Downs and REALLY bad on Passing Downs. And despite the presence of a seemingly very good freshman cornerback, it does appear that their secondary was about as bad as bad gets.

Defensive Line

Nate Frere...way better than his brother, Nick.

2008 Unit Ranking: #76 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Nate Frere (6'1, 283, Sr.)
DE Christopher Lyle (6'4, 252, Sr.)
DE Rashawn Parker (6'0, 260, Sr.)
DT Austin Alburtis (6'2, 267, Jr.)
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer (6'3, 290, So.)
DT Bailey Johnson (6'3, 272, Jr.)
DE Roosevelt Maggitt (6'2, 237, RSFr.)
DE Cleyon Laing (6'3, 268, RSFr.)

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

At end, Rashawn Parker (2.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QBH) has shown potential over the years, but he was pretty terrible in 2008. Though he's a "returning starter" he was far outplayed by Christopher Lyle (13.0 sacks/TFL, 2 QBH, 2 forced fumbles). Unfortunately, both are seniors, so it's likely that they've done whatever developing they're going to do. Best-case scenario here is that one of the RSFr ends breaks into the rotation pretty well and gives them a little continuity for 2010, as they're losing their top three (projected) linemen to graduation (or at least exhausted eligibility) after this year.

Linebackers

What a great picture this is. I bet Jesse Smith's mom has a few copies of this one.

2008 Unit Ranking: #94 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jesse Smith (6'0, 231, Sr.)
Fred Garrin (6'2, 230, Sr.)
Justin Rumple (6'3, 212, Jr.)
Josh Raven (5'11, 230, Sr.)
Matt Taufoou (6'1, 235, Jr.)
Derec Schmidgall (6'2, 230, Sr.)

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it. If there's a silver lining in this unit, it's Matt Taufoou, a late commitment to Rhoads who, if I read correctly, was initially committed to Tennessee. He comes to Ames with a decent JUCO resume, and lord knows there's a starting spot waiting for him if he can quickly prove himself.

Secondary

Leonard Johnson was a straight-up stud as a freshman.

2008 Unit Ranking: #109 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Leonard Johnson (5'10, 189, So.)
S James Smith (5'9, 191, Sr.)
S Zac Sandvig (5'10, 190, Jr.)
CB Ter'ran Benton (6'1, 196, So.)
S David Sims (5'10, 212, Jr.)
CB Kennard Banks (5'10, 189, Sr.)
CB Devin McDowell (5'9, 177, Jr.)
S Michael O'Connell (6'0, 201, Jr.)

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

Again, there's a sliver of hope here in the form of a player who initially committed to a good team. You've got Bo Williams (originally of Florida) at running back, Taufoou at linebacker, and now David Sims, who originally signed with OU out of JUCO in 2008 (and then...well, I'm not really sure what happened, but now he's in Ames), stepping in at safety. As with Taufoou, there is a starting spot available if he can come in and prove himself.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #51 Net Punting, #52 Punt Returns, #12 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Grant Mahoney (6'1, 154, So.) - 33-for-33 PAT, 17-for-25 FG (Long: 48)
P Mike Brandtner (6'1, 211, Sr.) - 51 Punts, 35.6 Net
KR Leonard Johnson (5'10, 189, So.) - 41 Returns, 26.4 Avg
PR Michael O'Connell (6'0, 201, Jr.) - 9 returns, 8.6 Avg

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Summary

When you're relying on JUCO transfers to significantly boost your athleticism, you're probably in trouble. But between Frere, Je. Smith, and Johnson, there is at least one solid player in each unit, which is something. I don't want to come down too hard on Iowa State here--they're playing in a relatively weak division and can certainly knock off a division rival or two--but it really does seem like it will take Paul Rhoads a couple of years to build the talent level up to something worthwhile. Like Bill Snyder, he'll be able to pretty quickly work some of his own recruits into the rotation with the number of mediocre seniors this defense has, but that also means that in his second year he will have an extremely young D...which usually isn't a good thing.

---

Projections on Friday.

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Defenses

Bill C. — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:00:18 -0000

So yesterday we established that any discussion of Big 12 North Offenses in 2009 still revolved first around Kansas and Missouri. Now, we move on to the defense. We'll go through the exact same attempted numbers-over-biases analysis and see where that gets us.

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#26)
Nebraska (#42)
Kansas (#47)
Colorado (#58)
Iowa State (#79)
Kansas State (#96)

We all have a lot of confidence and optimism regarding Jacquies Smith, Brian Coulter, and Aldon Smith, but the facts--the known knowns--are that Missouri's DL loses three starters and will likely tumble a bit.

Nebraska returns Ndamukong Suh, and that's great. It really is. Pierre Allen's also a good rush end. Steinkuhler #19 was a big-time recruit. Et cetera. I am fully willing to believe that NU has the best D-line in the division. But let's not pretend like this is the best D-line in the conference, or the country, or anything. Most people, when they talk about how Nebraska is obviously the best team in the North now, tend to overstate the D-line's exploits a bit. But while they were 9th in the country in Adjusted Sack Rate, they were only 48th in Line Yards+ (meaning, they were great rushing the passer but thoroughly mediocre against the run). Nebraska's Rushing Defense S&P+ was 60th in the country last year. They really do probably have the best DL in the division this year, but let's rein in the expectations a bit here.

Kansas returns three DL starters from their solid unit, so they should continue to improve; meanwhile Iowa State can build around a solid pair in DT Nate Frere and DE Rashawn Parker. Kansas State returns Brandon Harold and welcomes a potential new star in Virginia transfer (well, more of a drop-out, really) Jeffrey Fitzgerald.

Oh yeah, and the returning leading tackler on CU's D-line is DT Curtis Cunningham. He had 7.5 tackles in 2008. ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins has recruited well here, but the experienced players have little to no talent, and the talented players have little to no experience.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Kansas
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State
Colorado

I'll be more impressed when he actually does something against Missouri for once, ahem...whoops, did I say that?

Linebackers

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#34)
Colorado (#36)
Kansas (#49)
Kansas State (#75)
Iowa State (#98)

Sean Weatherspoon returns, so...yeah, #1 is staying the same. Nebraska has experience in guys like Blake Lawrence and 17th-year senior Phillip Dillard, and they've got young potential in guys like Will Compton. There isn't a star in the mix here, but this should be a solid unit. Jeff Smart and Brad Moehler return to anchor a solid LB unit in Boulder. Iowa State's unit still won't be very good, but it has experience in guys like Jesse Smith and Fred Garrin.

Kansas? No returning starters (beyond Arist Wright and his six career starts). Kansas State? No returning talent. I mean, you figure Bill Snyder will milk the most he can out of them, but still...

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Nebraska
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State

SPOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON...

Defensive Backs

2008 Rankings

Colorado (#13)
Kansas (#23)
Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#31)
Kansas State (#62)
Iowa State (#109)

Due probably to their strength of schedule (they played a LOT of good offenses), Colorado's secondary actually ranked quite high in 2008. They lose tackling machine Ryan Walters, but they do return a pair of solid corners in Cha'Pelle Brown and Jalil Brown (no relation...I think?). As thin as they are at LB, Kansas is deep at DB, returning, well, basically everybody you can name. Darrell Stuckey, Justin Thornton, Phil Strozier, Chris Harris, Daymond Patterson.

That's right, Missouri clocked in at #28. Again, think of strength of schedule here. They faced every good offense in the conference except Texas Tech, plus they took on Illinois and Nevada in non-conference. Close your eyes, and continue telling yourself that they weren't as bad as you want to think. You'll sleep better at night. Regardless of how they may have been in 2008, they are certainly in flux this year. William Moore is a loss, but we didn't really maximize his talents that much anyway, I guess.

Nebraska returns basically everybody but Armando Murrillo in the secondary, so they'll hop Missouri here. K-State was pretty far back in the rankings, and while, again, Snyder will coach them up (it's hard to tell how much talent KSU actually has since their coaching was so terrible...THEY WERE SOLD A BILL OF GOODS...sorry, was channeling Beef there), they probably won't make up the gap. And...sheesh. Think of how bad ISU's secondary would have been without stud freshman Leonard Johnson!

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Colorado
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas State
Iowa State

I'm not going to lie. I wish Darrell Stuckey were on my team.

DEFENSE SUMMARY

Add that up, and what do you get?

Tentative 2009 Defensive Ranking

1. Nebraska (6)
2T. Missouri (8)
2T. Kansas (8)
4. Colorado (11)
5. Iowa State (14)
6. Kansas State (16)

Kind of an interesting order.

Since there are three units on defense and four on offense, let's weight them equally by multiply all the defensive scores by 1.33.

1. Nebraska (8)
2T. Missouri (10.7)
2T. Kansas (10.7)
4. Colorado (14.7)
5. Iowa State (18.7)
6. Kansas State (21.3)

Special Teams

I'm going to freelance on this one. Still not making a lot of headway on special teams rankings.

2008 Rankings

1. Missouri
2. Nebraska
3. Kansas
4. Iowa State
5. Kansas State
6. Colorado

Of the four primary, most easily-definable special teams positions--kicker, punter, kick returner, punt returner--Mizzou loses three in Jeff Wolfert, Jeremy Maclin, and Jeremy Maclin. Nebraska returns a good kicker in Alex Henery and a good kick returner in Niles Paul, and they'll move up to #1. Kansas returns an average punter, a decent punt returner, and a good kicker but loses Marcus Herford at kick returner. Iowa State returns everybody from a mediocre unit, and Colorado loses returner Josh Smith while returning average punter Matt DiLallo and downright poor kicker Aric Goodman.

Bottom line here: Nebraska's special teams unit is rather proven; everybody else's is iffy. So it's like 1st place, a four-way tie for 2nd, and Colorado in 6th.

Projected 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Iowa State
Kansas
Missouri
Kansas State
Colorado

Coaching

I'm not even sure I want to touch this one. Gary Pinkel has led Mizzou to five bowls in six years, which, considering the recent history, is an amazing accomplishment. He has never finished below Mark Mangino's team in the standings. He just led Mizzou to their first ever North division title...and then did it again. Missouri's 30 wins in three seasons are a record. And yet he continuously gets ranked, at best, in the middle of the pack among Big 12 coaches. He did a terrible job in 2004, and he's still paying for it today, I guess. Anyway, because of the differences of opinion just with my own team's coach, I'm going to use something I used in the Illinois BTBS preview: Pythagorean Records. I will rank these coaches solely on that, and really, for everybody but Bill Snyder and Paul Rhoads, this makes sense--their abilities as it pertains to developing or recruiting talent have already been accounted for somewhat by all of the rankings above. They shouldn't get double credit. Instead, the Pythagorean record accounts for the difference between talent and execution (measured by point differential) and wins/losses.

Gary Pinkel since 2002 (I don't have 2001 in my database yet): 55-34. Pythagorean wins projection: 55.87. Difference per year: -0.12 wins.
Mark Mangino since 2002: 45-41. Pythagorean wins projection: 46.15. Difference per year: -0.15.
Bill Snyder from 2002 to 2005: 31-19. Pythagorean wins projection: 34.80. Difference per year: -0.99.
Dan Hawkins since 2006: 13-24. Pythagorean wins projection: 14.47. Difference per year: -0.82.
Bo Pelini since...well...how should we do this? One year is not a sample size, so I'm not sure I have a choice but to tack on his last two years as DC at LSU just so I can get at least a three-year sample size here. So since 2006: 32-8 (with a major asterisk). Pythagorean wins projection: 29.63. Difference per year: +0.79.
Paul Rhoads: 0-0. (Difference: 0.0!)

So even sticking Rhoads in last place because he's a first-year coach, this gives you some interesting results. Being that I'm petrified of Bill Snyder, I'm breaking my own "Numbers, not opinions" rule here and making him #1. I hate giving a second-year coach the #2 spot, but hey...whatever gets NU fans off my back.

2009 Projected Rankings

Kansas State
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas
Colorado
Iowa State

OVERALL

Total Projection Points

Kansas (26.7)
Missouri (26.7)
Nebraska (27.0)
Iowa State (40.7)
Kansas State (43.3)
Colorado (45.7)

So again, the point of this exercise was to figure out where the discussion should start. If you want to believe Nebraska's "back," then believe it. If you want to think Colorado really is going to break this year, feel free. If you believe that the only reason Derrick Washington and the Mizzou O-line seemed strong in 2008 was because of Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Coffman (and that any thought of Mizzou doing well in 2009 is wishful thinking and OMG PHIL STEELE THINKS YOU ARE TEH SUCK!!!), go right ahead and believe it. But those are all opinions--sticking as closely as possible to facts, stats, and proven commodities (and it's impossible to stick only to that without at least some of your own opinions bleeding through), you see a rather different picture than the one being painted in most conference previews.

Who knows what will happen, but the North shapes up to be a distinct three-team race in 2009, a race anybody can win. If Nebraska is "back" and winning the North again this year, they're going to have to earn it by winning on the road against two teams that match up very evenly with them. If Colorado is going to finally fulfill their "sleeper" potential, they're going to have to do it by sneaking past two teams that basically as proven (or unproven) as they are, plus maybe another team that is much more proven.

Bottom line: let the arguments begin.

The Fog of '09 - North Defenses

Bill C. — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:00:04 -0000

Yesterday, it was North Offenses. Today, North Defenses.

Defensive Lines

Nebraska (DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Pierre Allen)
Kansas (DE Jake Laptad, DT Richard Johnson, DT Caleb Blakesley)
Missouri (DT Jaron Baston, DE Brian Coulter, DE Jacquies Smith)
Kansas State (DE Brandon Harold, DT Daniel Calvin)
Iowa State (DE Rashawn Parker, DT Nate Frere)
Colorado (DE Jason Brace, ?)

That's right, Ndamukong Suh still has eligibility left--feels like he's been having an up-and-down season for Nebraska since about 2003--and he and Pierre Allen should make a pretty solid DL for the Huskers. KU returns a decent amount, and while their unit will be far from spectacular, it will be steady and reliable. Missouri has a lot of potential at DE with Coulter and Smith, but they still have to replace a lot of career starts.

Linebackers

Missouri (Sean Weatherspoon--for now, Luke Lambert)
Nebraska (Phil Dillard, Blake Lawrence)
Colorado (Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler)
Iowa State (Jesse Smith, Fred Garrin, Cameron Bell)
Kansas State (Olu Hall, Ulla Pomele)
Kansas (?)

I think Sean Weatherspoon will return, but I could be wrong. If he doesn't...well, MU probably doesn't fall very far because NOBODY will have tremendous LBs in 2009. Jeff Smart is solid, but that's really all CU has. Smith and Garrin have had their moments at ISU, but...yeah, they're still only average. NU returns Phil Dillard and some youngsters with potential, and if 'Spoon is in the NFL in 2009, that should give NU the best unit.

Defensive Backs

Kansas State (CB Joshua Moore, CB Blair Irvin, S Courtney Herndon)
Iowa State (CB Leonard Johnson, S James Smith)
Nebraska (S Rickey Thenarse, S Larry Asante)
Kansas (CB/S Chris Harris, S Darrell Stuckey, CB Daymond Patterson)
Missouri (CB Carl Gettis, S Kenji Jackson)
Colorado (CB Cha'pelle Brown, ?)

Oy. If there's one reason why North offenses should still be pretty successful in 2009, it's because nobody in the North returns a quality secondary. I'm probably underrating the Missouri secondary here--Iowa State game aside, Castine Bridges hasn't been anything special in '08, and there won't be a huge dropoff to Kevin Rutland or one of the RSFrs. Meanwhile, Missouri fans are loving them some Kenji Jackson. But only Carl Gettis will be proven.

Also, I might be overrating Iowa State, but I love me some Leonard Johnson.

North Defenses, 2009

Nebraska (15)
Missouri (12)
Kansas State (11)
Iowa State (10)
Kansas (9)
Colorado (6)

As with the offenses, each North defense will have its strengths and weaknesses...but not a lot of strengths. Nebraska scores the best, and they're returning only about six starters. Missouri loses William Moore and most of its D-line, and they still might have the best North defense. Iowa State's D was brutal in '08, and they actually score pretty well here. Big-time tossup. A lot will come down to matchups and schedules...so after we look at special teams, we'll look at that.

Special Teams

Iowa State (K Grant Mahoney, P Mike Brandtner, KR/PR's Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell)
Nebraska (K Alex Henery, KR/PR Niles Paul)
Colorado (KR/PR Josh Smith, P Matt DiLallo, K Aric Goodman)
Kansas State (KR/PR Deon Murphy, P George Pierson)
Missouri (P Jake Harry, K Tanner Mills)
Kansas (PR Daymond Patterson, K Jacob Branstetter, P Alonso Rojas)

Honestly, only ISU has a relatively complete special teams unit. I'm optimistic that Missouri's return game will still be decent with Gahn McGaffie or whoever ends up back there, but that's me projecting greatness on newcomers...so for now they're stuck low on the list. Colorado has a solid return man in Smith, but no kickers. KSU has a solid return man in Murphy, but no kickers. Kansas...yeah, same.

Coaches

Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

Mizzou could lose either or both coordinators, but I think this is where continuity pays off--the guys under the coordinators (Yost, Hill, Steckel, etc.) basically share the same brain as Eberflus and Christensen, so I'm not tremendously worried about losing the OC and DC. Then again, I'm a homer. KU took a lengthy step backwards after losing last year's DC, so who knows? All I know is this: in the last two years, Gary Pinkel has blown up the "Pinkel Effect". It no longer exists

So if we're going to add together all my admittedly arbitrary unit rankings (offense, defense, special teams, coaching), we end up with these standings.

2009 North Rankings

Missouri (40 points)
Nebraska (39)
Kansas (33)
Kansas State (30)
Iowa State (25)
Colorado (22)

Very loosely, there's a top tier (MU, NU, KU) and a bottom tier (KSU, ISU, CU). And obviously, there are question marks here. Is QB worth more than the other units? Then KU gets a bump up. Is there a "continuity of personnel" factor that will hurt Missouri (and possibly Nebraska)? Am I understating Colorado's potential with their solid recruiting classes? But we'll go with this for now.

-- Schedules --

Colorado

10/10 - at Texas
10/17 - Kansas
10/24 - at Kansas State
10/31 - Missouri
11/7 - Texas A&M
11/14 - at Iowa State
11/21 - at Oklahoma State
11/28 - Nebraska

South schedule: @ UT, @ OSU, ATM. That screams "1-2."

North home slate: KU, MU, NU. That's a good slate to have next year. I obviously don't expect much out of Colorado in '09, but they'll most likely go at least 1-2 in those games. I guess I'll say they beat KU, since KU's the lowest-ranked of the three.

North road slate: @ KSU, @ ISU. Not a good slate to have next year. Getting KSU and ISU at home would probably mean two wins, but on the road is a different story.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6

Iowa State

10/3 - vs Kansas State (at Arrowhead)
10/10 - at Kansas
10/17 - Baylor
10/24 - at Nebraska
10/31 - at Texas A&M
11/7 - Oklahoma State
11/14 - Colorado
11/21 - at Missouri

South schedule: BU, @ ATM, OSU. If ISU's defense takes a step forward, then they'll probably beat Baylor and at least have a chance against ATM. Even though Baylor will be pretty decent next year, I'll say ISU wins that game and goes 1-2.

North home slate: CU. They lose the KSU game to Arrowhead. The ISU-KSU could very well be a "winner goes 6-6 and slips into a bowl" situation, and as you see, they could be pretty evenly-matched. For no reason whatsoever, I say ISU goes 2-2 in these games.

North road slate: @ KU, @ NU, @ MU. Ouch. 0-3.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5

Kansas

10/10 - Iowa State
10/17 - at Colorado
10/24 - Oklahoma
10/31 - at Texas Tech
11/7 - at Kansas State
11/14 - Nebraska
11/21 - at Texas
11/28 - vs Missouri (still at Arrowhead, right?)

South schedule: OU, @ Tech, @ UT. I really hope KU fans enjoyed 2007. 0-3.

North home slate: ISU, NU, vs Mizzou. Assuming KU-MU is once again at Arrowhead, this once again hurts KU. Instead of getting both NU and MU at home, they get one on a neutral field. I say they beat ISU and NU, and naturally (ahem) lose to MU. 2-1.

North road slate: @ CU, @ KSU. They're not losing both of these, and since I already have them losing to CU, I guess that means they beat KSU. 1-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5. It's amazing what scheduling can do.

Kansas State

10/3 - at Iowa State
10/10 - at Texas Tech
10/17 - Texas A&M
10/24 - Colorado
10/31 - at Oklahoma
11/7 - Kansas
11/14 - Missouri
11/21 - at Nebraska

South schedule: @ Tech, ATM, @ OU. ATM is a big game, but I say KSU wins it. 1-2.

North home slate: CU, KU, MU. It would not at all surprise me to see a young Mizzou team slip up on the road, so we'll arbitrarily say it happens in Manhattan. That makes KSU 2-1 here.

North road slate: vs ISU, @ NU. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5.

Missouri

10/3 - Nebraska
10/17 - at Oklahoma State
10/24 - Texas
10/31 - at Colorado
11/7 - Baylor
11/14 - at Kansas State
11/21 - Iowa State
11/28 - vs Kansas

South schedule: @ OSU, UT, BU. Gotta figure that's 1-2, though obviously Baylor will not be a pushover.

North home slate: NU, ISU. The NU game will be ha-yoooge. But tie goes to the home team, right? 2-0.

North road slate: vs KU, @ CU, @ KSU. Beat KU and CU, randomly lose to KSU. 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 5-3.

Nebraska

10/3 - at Missouri
10/17 - Texas Tech
10/24 - Iowa State
10/31 - at Baylor
11/7 - Oklahoma
11/14 - at Kansas
11/21 - Kansas State
11/28 - at Colorado

South schedule: TT, @ BU, OU. Hmm. No to BU and OU, but I think they'll take out Tech. 1-2.

North home slate: ISU, KSU. 2-0.

North road slate: @ MU, @ KU, @ CU. We'll say 1-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 4-4.

Standings

Missouri 5-3
Nebraska 4-4
Kansas 3-5 (brutal schedule)
Kansas State 3-5
Iowa State 3-5
Colorado 2-6

Summary

It won't surprise me if the preseason mags pick KU (because of Reesing) or NU (because they're Nebraska) to win the North, and with the loss of Daniel, Maclin, Coffman, etc., it would very much surprise me to see anybody actually picking Mizzou. But although I may be overrating Mizzou in the rankings, there's no question that getting NU at home and KU in KC gives them the scheduling advantage here. In a three-team North race, it could come down to home-field advantage, and there's now no question in my mind that a third straight division title, if not a gimme by any means, is within reach, even in a rebuilding year.

But don't hold me to any of that.

Mizzou-ISU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 19:00:05 -0000

Alright, as with last week's piece, I'll start with KSU-MU analysis, then drop in all of last week's Big 12 BTBS box scores...and as always, the most interesting stuff is bolded...

Mizzou (52)		Iowa St. (20)
	% Close = 35.5%
46.6%	Field Position %	53.4%
76.6%	Leverage %	67.5%

	TOTAL
64	Plays	77
37.04	EqPts	25.81
62.5%	Success Rate	45.5%
0.58	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.34
1.204	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.790

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
36	Plays	14
16.52	EqPts	2.94
52.8%	Success Rate	35.7%
0.46	PPP	0.21
0.987	S&P	0.567

	RUSHING
15.57	EqPts	4.46
65.2%	Success Rate	39.1%
0.68	PPP	0.19
1.329	S&P	0.585
2.90	Line Yards/carry	3.06

	PASSING
21.47	EqPts	21.34
61.0%	Success Rate	48.2%
0.52	PPP	0.40
1.133	S&P	0.877

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
63.3%	Success Rate	46.2%
0.63	PPP	0.24
1.264	S&P	0.706

	PASSING DOWNS
60.0%	Success Rate	44.0%
0.41	PPP	0.52
1.008	S&P	0.963

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	2
6.39	Points Lost	6.06
1.82	Points Given	8.31
8.21	Total T/O Pts	14.37
+6.16	Turnover Pts Margin	-6.16

0.915	Q1 S&P	0.839
1.245	Q2 S&P	0.704
1.251	Q3 S&P	0.766
1.645	Q4 S&P	0.896

0.787	1st Down S&P	0.649
1.281	2nd Down S&P	1.024
2.265	3rd Down S&P	0.840

The yardage ended up being pretty close between the two teams (Mizzou 479, Iowa State 444), but all that truly matters is close-game stats, and Mizzou dominated here.
After last year's performance, I was wary of the day Alexander Robinson might have against Mizzou, but the Mizzou front seven was up for the challenge. Aside from one nice run by Robinson that got them out of the shadow of their goalline (okay, there were no shadows...it was at night) and a couple shifty runs by Austen Arnaud, there was nothing here for the Cyclones. Mizzou's rushing PPP was almost four times higher than ISU's.
For the first time in a while, Mizzou's S&P on Passing Downs crept back over the 1.000 mark. Good to see. We'll need all the Passing Downs success we can find in our two trips to Arrowhead.
ISU's success on third downs and Passing Downs was unacceptably high, but...I feel comfortable in saying that anytime Mizzou manages a 2.265 S&P on third downs (remember: anything over about 0.900 or 0.950 is a good S&P), they're going to win no matter what their defense does.
It was also nice to see Mizzou's offense continue to get into more and more of a rhythm with each passing quarter--their S&P improved each 15 minutes.

And now, a review of last week's "key players"...

Key Players: Iowa State

RB Alexander Robinson

Despite a nice 38-yard run in the 3rd quarter, Robinson was a non-factor. He touched the ball 15 times and managed just a 27% success rate and 0.459 S&P. Mizzou was on him immediately every time he touched the ball.

WR RJ Sumrall

Six catches, 24 yards, 1.10 EqPts. Awful. The Carl Gettis Treatment strikes again.

I should mention, though, just how effective Iowa State's tight ends were in this game. Derrick Catlett and Collin Franklin combined for 8 catches and 8.08 EqPts in sustaining what was a pretty decent ISU passing attack, at least after the score was within a comfortable arm's length for Missouri.

LB Fred Garrin

Garrin had, by all means, a decent game, with 6.5 tackles and 1 TFL. But he was needed in the turnover game, and came up empty there. I also mentioned Leonard Johnson as the other potential turnover candidate, and he came through with a fumble recovery and an INT that was called back due to a roughing penalty. He was solid all game, but it obviously wasn't nearly enough.

P Mike Brandtner

The fact that Brandtner punted only once should have been an encouraging thing for ISU, but the two turnovers and three failed fourth-down conversions killed ISU.

Key Players: Mizzou

QB Chase Daniel

Professor Chaos returned to his "automatic on third downs" ways Saturday. Mizzou was iffy on first downs all night, but 8-for-10 on third downs will win you a lot of games, as will completing your first 16 passes of the night. Chase found a reliable target in Andrew Jones, and after struggling a bit without Chase Coffman against KSU, the Mizzou offense was clicking on all cylinders. That's the upside about injuries to key players--as long as they're not season-long, and as long as they don't cost you in big games (as Coffman's injury did in the Big 12 title game last year), they get other guys some big minutes...and when the injured guy comes back, you've got even more weapons at your disposal.

RB Derrick Washington

He didn't come close to the 20 touches I requested, but in only 13 touches, he managed 151 yards and 2 TDs and led Mizzou with 11.52 EqPts. Efficiency, explosiveness, et cetera. Aside from the fumble he almost lost, this was a darn near perfect game from D-Wash.

FS William Moore

BINGO. Keep calling Willy Mo out, and eventually he'll come through with a big game. Four tackles, some hard hitting...oh yeah, and his fourth career pick six, one that basically put the game out of reach midway through the second quarter.

P Jake Harry

Jake Harry? Who the hell is Jake Harry?

MU-ISU Summary

North Champions once again. To quote our esteemed coach, "That's awesome." In all, this has worked out pretty nicely for Mizzou. The North title was clinched pretty easily, nobody else got hurt, Chase Coffman has a bye week to get healthy, and in theory Mizzou should head into Arrowhead with a clear head and healthy bodies, ready to culminate Hate Week(s) with a comfortable victory over a to-date lesser team. That's awesome.

Other Big 12 Games

Texas (35)		Kansas (7)
	% Close = 66.7%
52.9%	Field Position %	47.1%
70.0%	Leverage %	68.9%

	TOTAL
70	Plays	74
29.90	EqPts	13.88
47.1%	Success Rate	40.5%
0.43	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.19
0.899	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.593

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
59	Plays	37
22.58	EqPts	4.39
44.1%	Success Rate	37.8%
0.38	PPP	0.12
0.823	S&P	0.497

	RUSHING
12.25	EqPts	3.42
40.0%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.35	PPP	0.17
0.750	S&P	0.671
2.63	Line Yards/carry	3.02

	PASSING
17.65	EqPts	10.46
54.3%	Success Rate	37.0%
0.50	PPP	0.19
1.047	S&P	0.564

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
51.0%	Success Rate	39.2%
0.35	PPP	0.11
0.857	S&P	0.507

	PASSING DOWNS
38.1%	Success Rate	43.5%
0.62	PPP	0.35
0.997	S&P	0.784

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	2
1.84	Points Lost	3.12
2.29	Points Given	5.70
4.13	Total T/O Pts	8.82
+4.69	Turnover Pts Margin	-4.69

0.841	Q1 S&P	0.538
0.627	Q2 S&P	0.454
1.191	Q3 S&P	0.688
0.870	Q4 S&P	0.647

0.864	1st Down S&P	0.585
1.023	2nd Down S&P	0.679
0.789	3rd Down S&P	0.544

UT's offense really wasn't clicking during this game, third quarter aside. However, despite the limitations of a less-than-100% healthy Brian Orakpo, the Texas defense had KU disheveled and discombobulated all morning and afternoon. Dezmon Briscoe's acrobatic catch aside, KU had no semblance of a downfield threat against UT's speed, and it made the difference in the game.
And despite decent blocking up front, KU's RBs just didn't have enough speed to get by UT's front seven.
A 0.507 S&P is pretty bad on Passing Downs. That was KU's performance on Non-Passing Downs. That's horrendous. And it negates what was actually a decent performance by KU on Passing Downs (0.784).
Meanwhile, Texas continues to lead the country in Passing Downs success. For the season, they're actually averaging a higher S&P on Passing Downs than Non-Passing Downs. They're the only team in the country who can say that, though that disproportionality was one of the things that bit them in the behind against Texas Tech.

Nebraska (56)		K-State (28)
	% Close = 58.1%
86.4%	Field Position %	13.6%
78.2%	Leverage %	63.8%

	TOTAL
78	Plays	58
46.85	EqPts	14.73
57.7%	Success Rate	27.6%
0.60	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.25
1.178	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.530

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
56	Plays	23
36.65	EqPts	5.87
60.7%	Success Rate	21.7%
0.65	PPP	0.26
1.262	S&P	0.473

	RUSHING
31.29	EqPts	5.28
59.6%	Success Rate	32.1%
0.60	PPP	0.19
1.198	S&P	0.510
3.60	Line Yards/carry	2.94

	PASSING
15.56	EqPts	9.45
53.9%	Success Rate	23.3%
0.60	PPP	0.32
1.137	S&P	0.548

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
62.3%	Success Rate	27.0%
0.54	PPP	0.21
1.168	S&P	0.481

	PASSING DOWNS
41.2%	Success Rate	28.6%
0.80	PPP	0.33
1.213	S&P	0.616

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	1
6.56	Points Lost	1.23
7.99	Points Given	3.33
14.55	Total T/O Pts	4.56
-9.99	Turnover Pts Margin	+9.99

1.262	Q1 S&P	0.347
1.124	Q2 S&P	0.619
0.932	Q3 S&P	0.947
1.355	Q4 S&P	0.214

0.950	1st Down S&P	0.559
1.322	2nd Down S&P	0.472
1.250	3rd Down S&P	0.514

Nebraska is the winner of the Most Dominant Performance of the Week competition, though playing K-State should probably disqualify you from the contest at this point.
How did this game stay within two possessions for 58% of the time despite NU's complete domination? Try a pick six early and a kick return TD late.
The three-headed Nebraska rushing attack has picked up steam in recent weeks, albeit against less than stellar rush defenses (OU game aside). Roy Helu Jr., Quentin Castille and Marlon Lucky have all had their moments, and at this point I'm going to say that Helu is the #2 RB in the North next year (behind our man D-Wash, of course).
Know how I said KU's 0.507 S&P on Non-Passing Downs was horrible? KSU's was 0.481.
If Ron Prince wanted to give his team the best chance to win, he'd have to seriously think about a QB platoon between a grayshirt (Carson Coffman) and the guy who was picked by some to be a 2009 1st Round draft pick (Josh Freeman). Just sayin'.
Just think where this game could have been if KSU hadn't won the turnover battle by 10 points!

OSU (30)		Colorado (17)
	% Close = 82.4%
53.7%	Field Position %	46.3%
76.2%	Leverage %	57.5%

	TOTAL
63	Plays	73
29.04	EqPts	17.04
49.2%	Success Rate	34.3%
0.46	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.23
0.953	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.576

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
59	Plays	53
28.97	EqPts	9.02
52.5%	Success Rate	35.9%
0.49	PPP	0.17
1.016	S&P	0.529

	RUSHING
17.12	EqPts	8.19
42.5%	Success Rate	42.4%
0.43	PPP	0.25
0.853	S&P	0.672
3.12	Line Yards/carry	2.58

	PASSING
11.92	EqPts	8.85
60.9%	Success Rate	27.5%
0.52	PPP	0.22
1.127	S&P	0.496

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
47.9%	Success Rate	38.1%
0.40	PPP	0.23
0.875	S&P	0.607

	PASSING DOWNS
53.3%	Success Rate	29.0%
0.67	PPP	0.24
1.201	S&P	0.534

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	1
1.23	Points Lost	1.63
4.13	Points Given	2.38
5.36	Total T/O Pts	4.01
-1.35	Turnover Pts Margin	+1.35

0.944	Q1 S&P	0.438
1.219	Q2 S&P	0.661
1.429	Q3 S&P	0.653
0.497	Q4 S&P	0.501

1.111	1st Down S&P	0.499
0.641	2nd Down S&P	0.593
0.987	3rd Down S&P	0.280

Really a ho-hum game here. OSU was never threatened by CU's offense, and their own offense made plays when it had to...and yet OSU only won by 13. OSU's rushing performance was a little below standard for them, but overall the 'Pokes won just about every category.
As far as I can tell, one of the things that kept CU as close as they were was a near-even field position battle. OSU was content to run the ball (40 rushes, just 23 passes) and grind out the win, and CU was able to pin them just far enough back that every drive didn't end up in FG range.

ATM (21)		Baylor (41)
	% Close = 54.0%
35.3%	Field Position %	64.7%
78.4%	Leverage %	72.0%

	TOTAL
51	Plays	75
19.98	EqPts	33.80
45.1%	Success Rate	44.0%
0.39	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.45
0.843	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.891

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
26	Plays	42
7.83	EqPts	21.69
42.3%	Success Rate	45.2%
0.30	PPP	0.52
0.724	S&P	0.969

	RUSHING
4.69	EqPts	17.84
47.4%	Success Rate	42.3%
0.25	PPP	0.34
0.721	S&P	0.766
3.22	Line Yards/carry	2.43

	PASSING
15.29	EqPts	15.96
43.8%	Success Rate	47.8%
0.48	PPP	0.69
0.915	S&P	1.172

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
47.5%	Success Rate	42.6%
0.40	PPP	0.35
0.873	S&P	0.777

	PASSING DOWNS
36.4%	Success Rate	47.6%
0.37	PPP	0.71
0.732	S&P	1.184

	TURNOVERS
5	Number	0
11.65	Points Lost	0.00
11.18	Points Given	0.00
22.83	Total T/O Pts	0.00
-22.83	*Turnover Pts Margin*	+22.83

0.666	Q1 S&P	0.700
0.767	Q2 S&P	1.015
0.669	Q3 S&P	1.162
1.288	Q4 S&P	0.601

1.035	1st Down S&P	0.671
0.594	2nd Down S&P	0.776
0.462	3rd Down S&P	1.374

ATM is so lucky that the final score didn't end up much worse. And it was much worse...BU was up 41-7 when they took their foots of the gas in the fourth quarter. Repeat: Baylor was up 41-7. In a conference game.
Really, Baylor walked a fine line here--they were far from dominant in Non-Passing Downs situations...but they were as good as they've ever been on Passing Downs, and ATM's failure there doomed them.
Whereas Baylor got better on each progressive down, ATM got worse, and it forced them into situations with higher probabilities of turnovers.

Poll

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP against Iowa State?

Chase Daniel (21.47 Passing EqPts, 1.133 S&P, 8-for-10 3rd-down conversions)

15 votes

Derrick Washington (11.52 total EqPts, 2 TDs)

20 votes

Jeremy Maclin (9.44 total EqPts, 111 return yards, 1 TD)

9 votes

William Moore (his long-awaited 4th career pick six)

3 votes

Castine Bridges (12.5 tackles, 2 pass breakups, a big Q1 fourth down stop)

17 votes

Carl Gettis (for giving RJ Sumrall the Carl Gettis Treatment...and registering an INT of his own)

5 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 17:00:08 -0000

The basketball and all-sports talk has distracted us from this week's game, but I think the talk has been minimal for one other reason: the only way this game will be memorable is in a bad way. If we take care of business, none of us will remember this game a year from now. If we don't...yikes. Let's not think about that. Let's just go to the numbers.

Mizzou	Opp.		ISU	Opp.
55.3%		% Close	73.9%
56.3%	43.7%	Field Position %	53.0%	47.0%
79.7%	67.8%	Leverage %	64.3%	71.3%

		Total
669	749	Plays	698	668
355.37	239.77	EqPts	227.72	306.33
56.3%	41.8%	Success Rate	41.3%	49.0%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.33	0.46
1.094	0.738	S&P	0.739	0.948

		Close Games
417	367	Plays	495	514
212.27	116.90	EqPts	164.87	231.79
58.0%	43.1%	Success Rate	40.6%	47.9%
0.51	0.32	PPP	0.33	0.45
1.089	0.749	S&P	0.739	0.930

		Rushing
74.85	86.99	EqPts	74.76	126.61
53.3%	40.7%	Success Rate	39.4%	47.4%
0.45	0.26	PPP	0.31	0.36
0.987	0.664	S&P	0.706	0.834
3.15	2.71	Line Yds/carry	2.73	3.24

		Passing
225.38	152.78	EqPts	123.74	179.72
60.2%	42.7%	Success Rate	41.9%	50.6%
0.56	0.37	PPP	0.36	0.57
1.163	0.799	S&P	0.778	1.075
2.2%	6.1%	Sack Rate	4.3%	4.7%

		Non-Passing Downs
61.4%	47.2%	Success Rate	48.3%	53.2%
0.54	0.33	PPP	0.33	0.45
1.152	0.803	S&P	0.812	0.986
1.4%	4.7%	Sack Rate	4.0%	3.2%
48.0%	53.9%	Run Rate	57.0%	60.5%

		Passing Downs
40.0%	30.3%	Success Rate	26.8%	38.5%
0.41	0.30	PPP	0.36	0.47
0.814	0.602	S&P	0.632	0.855
4.0%	8.0%	Sack Rate	4.6%	7.0%
24.2%	27.0%	Run Rate	31.4%	33.3%

		Turnovers
15	17	Total	17	24
41.72	39.57	Points Lost	42.73	61.30
32.41	63.42	Points Given	39.47	63.66
74.13	102.99	Total T/O Pts	82.20	124.96
+28.86	-28.86	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	+42.76	-42.76

Thoughts after the jump...

One specific way ISU stays in this game and/or pulls it out: turnovers. Missouri has been more careless with the ball than usual over the last two games, and Gene Chizik's defense has actually been pretty strong at forcing turnovers. ISU has an all-or-nothing defense--they either make a big play or give up a big play (more of the latter than the former)--but that can still make your life uneasy in bad weather. In 2006, Missouri was a few plays away from breaking the game wide open in the first quarter until Tony Temple fumbled. That gave ISU's offense a breather until they could get that damn fullback Ryan Kock rolling, and we know what happened after that. Turnovers = the only way ISU can win this game.
Austen Arnaud actually does a pretty decent job of both getting rid of the ball quickly (low sack rate, even on Passing Downs) and not panicking and throwing bad INTs (only 6 picks in 302 passes). They trust him in this regard, as they actually throw quite a bit in Passing Down situations--they don't take the easy way out (a la Colorado) and run 40% of the time in Passing Downs. He's a mature presence in the pocket...he's just not all that good a presence in the pocket. He's not all that accurate, and his receivers aren't big-play threats (plus, even though he's decent in Passing Downs, the ISU offense still faces far too many Passing Downs), but ISU's offense won't beat itself. It's capable of dinking and dunking all the way down the field if you don't make a play.
Alexander Robinson has played well as of late, and considering how well he played last time he faced Mizzou, I'd actually expect a decent day out of him. He's much quicker than 19th-year senior Jason Scales, and he's ISU's biggest big-play threat.
In the turnover figures and the decent Passing Downs success rate, you can see hints of the aggressive defense Gene Chizik wants to play. But the personnel is simply not there. Junior Jesse Smith is a solid MLB (the least important position on the field for facing Missouri), DEs Christopher Lyle and Kurtis Taylor are solid pass rushers (they've combined for a respectable 9 sacks), WLB Fred Garrin is a nice playmaker (5 TFL, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 2 pass breakups), and Leonard Johnson (2 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 1 TFL, 3 pass breakups, 40 tackles) is a potentially great freshman CB. But none of these guys are rock-solid on every play--just occasionally--and that still leaves six positions on defense that aren't all that hot.
On Non-Passing Downs, basically every team Iowa State plays turns into the Missouri offense. A 53% success rate and 0.986 S&P are simply waaaaay too high. If he gets the carries (and if the weather's bad, he might), Derrick Washington could have a huge day.
Did I mention how huge turnovers are? Just checking.

On to the situational stats...

Mizzou	Opp.		ISU	Opp.
		Q1
57.9%	46.8%	Success Rate	41.9%	42.1%
0.56	0.28	PPP	0.36	0.36
1.137	0.747	S&P	0.782	0.783

		Q2
59.4%	39.9%	Success Rate	40.0%	55.6%
0.49	0.27	PPP	0.27	0.47
1.088	0.669	S&P	0.665	1.028

		Q3
55.6%	40.5%	Success Rate	41.5%	42.8%
0.54	0.37	PPP	0.31	0.48
1.096	0.771	S&P	0.725	0.909

		Q4
51.3%	40.5%	Success Rate	42.3%	54.8%
0.44	0.37	PPP	0.42	0.51
0.950	0.772	S&P	0.842	1.054

		1st Downs
58.2%	43.3%	Success Rate	45.6%	48.4%
0.55	0.33	PPP	0.34	0.43
1.130	0.764	S&P	0.796	0.912

		2nd Downs
57.2%	38.6%	Success Rate	38.9%	47.9%
0.47	0.31	PPP	0.33	0.44
1.039	0.700	S&P	0.716	0.922

		3rd Downs
50.9%	41.0%	Success Rate	34.3%	48.4%
0.51	0.28	PPP	0.35	0.50
1.015	0.694	S&P	0.697	0.982

Iowa State's defense is extra horrible in Q2 and Q4. That suggests that the game-planning and adjustments are there...but the talent and speed are not. Opponents are able to wear ISU down and make plays eventually.
ISU's offensive success rates are best on first down. If Mizzou allows Alexander Robinson to get some yards on first down, ISU could milk the clock and actually turn into a reasonably efficient offense. They still don't have any big playmakers, but Baylor was able to move the ball without too many big plays. The difference, of course, is that Mizzou was playing an umbrella defense to contain Hot Tub Griffin III. They'll likely be much more aggressive with a less mobile Arnaud in the backfield.
I reference this every week, I think, but the quarter-to-quarter and down-to-down consistency of the Missouri offense is impressive.
ISU probably won't move the ball in Q2. It's their worst offensive quarter, and it's the Mizzou defense's best quarter.

Key Players: Iowa State

RB Alexander Robinson

Two years ago, with a wind chill of 31 degrees, Iowa State played keep-away and punished Mizzou with a steady diet of the beefy Ryan Kock (32 carries, 179 yards). That, combined with the fact that about 18 Mizzou WRs/TEs got hurt that day and Chase Daniel was trying to lead a comeback throwing only to a sophomore Tommy Saunders and freshmen Danario Alexander and Jared Perry, all but sealed Missouri's fate*. At 5'10, 182 pounds, Robinson is quite clearly not built like Kock, but he had a great game against Missouri last year (21 carries, 149 yards--his success kept the game close and kept Pig Brown on the field late in Q4...when he injured his Achilles), and he's all-in-all a pretty solid sophomore running back. His 0.708 S&P isn't amazing, but a) it's improved in recent games, and b) it's infinitely better than Jason Scales' 0.654 or JJ Bass' 0.556. Scales is a more efficient back (40% success rate to Robinson's 38%), but barely. If ISU is going to successfully play keep-away again, it's on Robinson's shoulders.

* I will not mention the phantom hold. I will not mention the phantom hold. I will not mention the phantom hold.

WR RJ Sumrall

If Robinson isn't ISU's best chance at a big play, it's Sumrall, who like Scales, seems to have been at Iowa State for decades. His 0.912 PPP is by far the most explosive on the team (Sedrick Johnson's 0.763 is the only other one over 0.7...which is pretty bad). He's certainly experienced, and it's Senior Day, so it's quite possible Sumrall makes a big play or two in the passing game. If he doesn't, I can't see who will. Then again, he'll likely be getting the Carl Gettis Treatment, so maybe I should go with Johnson instead?

LB Fred Garrin

He and Leonard Johnson are as close to being a turnover machine as Gene Chizik has. If Mizzou has a costly turnover, chances are one of these two guys will be involved in it.

P Mike Brandtner

In a cold weather game, ISU has one other pathway to success: success in the field position battle. With wind a factor, he could (assuming he punts a lot--and he better) potentially pin Mizzou pretty deep in 2 of 4 quarters. What that will mean, among other things, is more opportunities for ISU's defense to hit Mizzou's skill position players and wear them out. You won't want to hit the ground too hard on Saturday--it's cold and hard--and if Mizzou starts their drives with long fields, they might score, but they might not have their legs about them as much later in the game.

Key Players: Missouri

QB Chase Daniel

It's easy, really. Chase rediscovers his mojo, Mizzou wins going away. He makes another few stupid throws, and ISU can make him pay, just like Baylor and Oklahoma State did (and just like KSU could have, had they had any sort of offensive success).

RB Derrick Washington

November's when Tony Temple started to turn it on during his career--a frigid, windy Jack Trice Stadium just screams "20-25 carries for Washington". If he goes "20 carries for 126 yards and 2-3 TDs," Mizzou wins easy. If it's more like "15 carries, 58 yards," then Chase will have to make a lot more windy throws.

FS William Moore

He's shown flashes of "Willy Mo '07" here and there, but the dude has cost himself some money with his play this year. He's only been solid, not amazing. But he's got 3-4 more games to remind Mizzou fans of what they thought they had in him for '08. He's still one of my favorite Mizzou players ever, but he's certainly had a disappointing season.

P Jake Harry

As always...the less we see of him, the bigger the winning margin. Love ya, Jake, but here's to hoping for another "1 punt, 41 yards" line from you.

Summary and Prediction

Monday's BTBS projections said Mizzou would take this one 39-23. Last week I combined the BTBS projections with the turnover averages and nailed the margin of victory...right up until Ron Prince pulled a Ron Prince and KSU got two junk TDs in the last two minutes. So we'll go with that. Taking what looks like about a 1-2 point ISU turnover advantage into account, we'll make that a nice and tidy 38-24 Mizzou win. With the wind and general misery of a Jack Trice Stadium encounter, this game could be closer than we'd like to think. I expect a closer game than a lot people, but I refuse to believe that Chase Daniel won't find a way to win this game, and probably comfortably. Mizzou clinches the North on Saturday.

Poll

What scares you most about MU-ISU?

RB Alexander Robinson

3 votes

ISU's ability to force turnovers

6 votes

BEWARE THE WINDS OF JACK TRICE STADIUM!!!

38 votes

Nothing

24 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Fred Garrin

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

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---

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---

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Week 7 Wrap-Up

New Depth Chart Released

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview - Iowa State

Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

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The Fog of '09 - North Defenses

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Mizzou-ISU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou (52)

Iowa St. (20)

Key Players: Iowa State

Key Players: Mizzou

MU-ISU Summary

Other Big 12 Games

Texas (35)

Kansas (7)

Nebraska (56)

K-State (28)

OSU(30)

Colorado (17)

ATM(21)

Baylor (41)

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP against Iowa State?

Chase Daniel (21.47 Passing EqPts, 1.133 S&P, 8-for-10 3rd-down conversions)

Derrick Washington (11.52 total EqPts, 2 TDs)

Jeremy Maclin (9.44 total EqPts, 111 return yards, 1 TD)

William Moore (his long-awaited 4th career pick six)

Castine Bridges (12.5 tackles, 2 pass breakups, a big Q1 fourth down stop)

Carl Gettis (for giving RJ Sumrall the Carl Gettis Treatment...and registering an INT of his own)

Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Mizzou

Opp.

ISU

Opp.

Mizzou

OSU
(30)

ATM
(21)