SB Nation - Kurtis Taylor

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview - Iowa State

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 02:53:05 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2009 marks the beginning of the Paul Rhoads era at ISU

The SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview will post Friday, at Ralphie Report. This is a high level preview of Iowa State, and my conference predictions. If you have been reading my more detailed Iowa State and Big 12 previews, this will provide a summary of what you've been reading.If you are new to the site, welcome and enjoy your stay at Clone Chronicles!

Offense (9 Returning Starters):

The offense should be a strength for the Cyclones. The Cyclones have an entirely new coaching staff, with Tom Herman (formerly of Rice) as the new OC. The Cyclones are going to be running a no-huddle spread offense, and having seen Herman's track record, many believe (or at least hope) that the Cyclones will be able to put up some serious points. The one thing we learned about the Big 12 last year, is that you have to score if you want to win.

Passing: The Cyclones offense will be lead by returning starting QB, Austen Arnaud, a junior from Ames, IA. In 2008 Arnaud completed 61% of his passes, threw for for 2792 yards, 15 TDs, and 10 INTs. Arnaud also ran for 400 yards and scored 5 TDs on the ground. Arnaud will be joined by a young, but talented receiving corps., lead by Sophomore WR Darius Darks (2nd on the team last year as a True Freshmen with 49 Catches), JUCO-Transfer Darius Reynolds, Sophomore Sedrick Johnson, and Senior Marquis Hamilton. One can expect to see the Cyclones run 3 and 4 WR sets, as WR is the deepest position on the offense. Not to be forgotten is Senior TE, Derrick Catlett who caught 20 passes for 230 yards in 2008.

Running: The running game has been a somewhat hot topic for Cyclones fans this offseason. Returning starter Alexander Robinson, a Junior from Minneapolis, is believed to be the starting RB. Herman likes to use the RB as a receiver, and Robinson has the hands as he caught 17 passes for 160 yards in 2008, slightly down from 20 he caught in 2007. The running back corps also has Bo Williams a transfer from Florida, and Jeremiah Schwartz, a Redshirt Freshmen entering his first season. Williams has a bruising running style, but it is not clear if he has the hands to catch the ball out of the backfield. Schwartz is a change-of-pace back who is quick and can elude tacklers. True Freshmen Beau Blankenship has reportedly done well in camp, but I would not be suprised to see him redshirt.

Offensive Line: The Cyclones offensive line was the achillies heel of the offense. This is obviously not the spot you want to have your major weakness. It's also not surprising when you have the skill position talent the Cyclones have, but only win 2 games the year before. The big move on the offensive line is All-Big 12 Caliber Senior OG Reggie Stephens has moved to C, and Junior C Alex Alvarez will move to OG. The good news about this group is there is a lot of experience, as 4 of the starters return from last year. The 5th starter is an uncertainty at this point (at least to me). There appears to be a hole at OT, and I've heard names such as Keleichi Osemele, Hayworth Hicks, Zack Spears, and others. The unit is looking to be one of the largest in College Football, averaging 320+lbs. Bottom line is this: the OL was weak last year, and there is a lot of returning experience coming back. The hope is that these guys can improve and stay healthy, as there isn't a lot of depth. If the OL can just get to below-average, instead of bad, the Cyclones could have a nice season offensively.

Key Additions: JUCO WR Darius Reynolds, RB Schwartz (redshirt off), RB Bo Williams (transfer from Florida)

Key Losses: WR RJ Sumrall, OT Doug Dedrick, C Mike Knapp

What you can expect to see from the Cyclones is 75-80% passing, and lots of short dump passes. With a weaker OL, there won't be many running lanes, and Arnaud won't have a lot of time to make deep throws. The Big 12 can put up points, and the defenses will be questionable. If the Cyclones are going to win games, it will have to be done by putting up a lot of points through the air.

Defense (6 Returning Starters)

The Cyclones defense was a disaster last year, allowing almost 36 points per game, 453 yards of offense (277 passing, 176 rushing), and I wouldn't be surprised if they lead the nation in missed tackles. New DC Wally Burnham is a czar at stopping spread offenses, and he will have his work cut out for him with this group.

Defensive Line: Last year the Defensive Line was a weak link for the Cyclones, as evidenced by the rushing yards allowed. The guys got pushed around on running plays, and on passing plays could not put pressure on the QB. This year's group is led by Seniors DE Rashawn Parker and DT Nate Frere. Numerous names have been thrown out there for the other DE and DT spot, and I will not even try to speculate. Frere and Parker are good players, but if the other 2 guys aren't as productive, it will be easy for opposing linemen to double these guys, and run the ball away from them.

Linebackers: The linebacking group had it's fair share of problems as well. There were a lot of missed tackles in the open field, which attributed for longer gains on the ground and after the catch. Seniors MLB Jesse Smith and OLB Fred Garrin will lead the group. Adding JUCO OLB Matt Taufoou will hopefully improve the unit drastically.

Secondary: By looking at the stats last year, one would make the conclusion that ISU's secondary was horrible, but that wasn't necessarily the case. The DL not being able to put pressure on the QB, gave opposing QBs plenty of time to find holes in the zone. Sophomore CB Leonard Johnson has the potential to be a shutdown corner in the Big 12, while Senior CB Kennard Banks (who was injured a lot of last year) is a solid player. DC Wally Burnham has even said that these two guys will allow for the Cyclones to be able to mix up coverages and even blitz. The rest of the unit will include JUCO SS David Sims, and Senior FS James Smith.

Overall, I'd expect to see the Cyclones defense find creative ways to put pressure on the QB. Last year, the staff was all about staying in a base defense, and hoping the DL would somehow get good over the course of the season, as we saw very little blitzing. I think Burnham understands that you have to find a way to pressure the QB, especially in the Big 12. You take a risk when you blitz, but if the DL can't put on pressure, you have to find other ways to do it. If the Cyclones can find ways to put pressure, and the team can improve their tackling, this could be an average defense (instead of a defense ranked in the triple digits).

Key Additions: JUCO LB Matt Taufoou, JUCO SS David Sims

Key Departures: DE Kurtis Taylor, DT Michael Tate, LB Michael Bibbs, SS Brandon Hunley

Special Teams (4 Returning Starters)

To avoid being confusing, I am not including the FG protection, Punt protection, Kickoff Coverage, etc. When I talk Special Teams in this section, I am talking about K, P, KR, and PR.

Once an area that haunted the 'Clones under McCarney, Special Teams was a bright spot for ISU last year. All Big 12 Caliber P Mike Brandtner returns for his Senior Year, and strong legged K Grant Mahoney comes back for his Sophomore Year. Mahoney has the range (48 was his longest FG), but needs to improve on his 68% accuracy.

Last year Leonard Johnson has a great year returning kicks, averaging a little over 26 yards per return. It is unclear whether Johnson will be returning Kicks and/or Punts this season, and from the reports from camp, WR Darius Reynolds could be seeing some action as a return man as well. Regardless of who's returning, it's going to be an explosive and talented group.

Overall, I look for ISU to have one of the best Special Teams Units in All of the Big 12, and that is something I didn't think I'd ever say about ISU a few years ago.

Season Forecast:

Big 12 North:

Nebraska: 6-2 (9-3 overall)
Kansas: 5-3 (9-3 overall)
Missouri: 4-4 (7-5 overall)
Kansas State: 3-5 (6-6 overall)
ISU: 2-6 (6-6 overall)
Colorado: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 South:

Oklahoma: 8-0 (12-0 overall)
Texas: 7-1 (11-1 overall)
Texas Tech: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Oklahoma State: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Baylor: 1-7 (4-8 overall)
Texas A&M: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma over Nebraska

National Championship Game: Oklahoma over Alabama

For more reading on my ISU Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Third Quarter

Part 4: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Fourth Quarter

For more reading on my Big 12 Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Third AND Fourth Quarter

Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 17:00:08 -0000

The basketball and all-sports talk has distracted us from this week's game, but I think the talk has been minimal for one other reason: the only way this game will be memorable is in a bad way. If we take care of business, none of us will remember this game a year from now. If we don't...yikes. Let's not think about that. Let's just go to the numbers.

Mizzou	Opp.		ISU	Opp.
55.3%		% Close	73.9%
56.3%	43.7%	Field Position %	53.0%	47.0%
79.7%	67.8%	Leverage %	64.3%	71.3%

		Total
669	749	Plays	698	668
355.37	239.77	EqPts	227.72	306.33
56.3%	41.8%	Success Rate	41.3%	49.0%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.33	0.46
1.094	0.738	S&P	0.739	0.948

		Close Games
417	367	Plays	495	514
212.27	116.90	EqPts	164.87	231.79
58.0%	43.1%	Success Rate	40.6%	47.9%
0.51	0.32	PPP	0.33	0.45
1.089	0.749	S&P	0.739	0.930

		Rushing
74.85	86.99	EqPts	74.76	126.61
53.3%	40.7%	Success Rate	39.4%	47.4%
0.45	0.26	PPP	0.31	0.36
0.987	0.664	S&P	0.706	0.834
3.15	2.71	Line Yds/carry	2.73	3.24

		Passing
225.38	152.78	EqPts	123.74	179.72
60.2%	42.7%	Success Rate	41.9%	50.6%
0.56	0.37	PPP	0.36	0.57
1.163	0.799	S&P	0.778	1.075
2.2%	6.1%	Sack Rate	4.3%	4.7%

		Non-Passing Downs
61.4%	47.2%	Success Rate	48.3%	53.2%
0.54	0.33	PPP	0.33	0.45
1.152	0.803	S&P	0.812	0.986
1.4%	4.7%	Sack Rate	4.0%	3.2%
48.0%	53.9%	Run Rate	57.0%	60.5%

		Passing Downs
40.0%	30.3%	Success Rate	26.8%	38.5%
0.41	0.30	PPP	0.36	0.47
0.814	0.602	S&P	0.632	0.855
4.0%	8.0%	Sack Rate	4.6%	7.0%
24.2%	27.0%	Run Rate	31.4%	33.3%

		Turnovers
15	17	Total	17	24
41.72	39.57	Points Lost	42.73	61.30
32.41	63.42	Points Given	39.47	63.66
74.13	102.99	Total T/O Pts	82.20	124.96
+28.86	-28.86	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	+42.76	-42.76

Thoughts after the jump...

One specific way ISU stays in this game and/or pulls it out: turnovers. Missouri has been more careless with the ball than usual over the last two games, and Gene Chizik's defense has actually been pretty strong at forcing turnovers. ISU has an all-or-nothing defense--they either make a big play or give up a big play (more of the latter than the former)--but that can still make your life uneasy in bad weather. In 2006, Missouri was a few plays away from breaking the game wide open in the first quarter until Tony Temple fumbled. That gave ISU's offense a breather until they could get that damn fullback Ryan Kock rolling, and we know what happened after that. Turnovers = the only way ISU can win this game.
Austen Arnaud actually does a pretty decent job of both getting rid of the ball quickly (low sack rate, even on Passing Downs) and not panicking and throwing bad INTs (only 6 picks in 302 passes). They trust him in this regard, as they actually throw quite a bit in Passing Down situations--they don't take the easy way out (a la Colorado) and run 40% of the time in Passing Downs. He's a mature presence in the pocket...he's just not all that good a presence in the pocket. He's not all that accurate, and his receivers aren't big-play threats (plus, even though he's decent in Passing Downs, the ISU offense still faces far too many Passing Downs), but ISU's offense won't beat itself. It's capable of dinking and dunking all the way down the field if you don't make a play.
Alexander Robinson has played well as of late, and considering how well he played last time he faced Mizzou, I'd actually expect a decent day out of him. He's much quicker than 19th-year senior Jason Scales, and he's ISU's biggest big-play threat.
In the turnover figures and the decent Passing Downs success rate, you can see hints of the aggressive defense Gene Chizik wants to play. But the personnel is simply not there. Junior Jesse Smith is a solid MLB (the least important position on the field for facing Missouri), DEs Christopher Lyle and Kurtis Taylor are solid pass rushers (they've combined for a respectable 9 sacks), WLB Fred Garrin is a nice playmaker (5 TFL, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 2 pass breakups), and Leonard Johnson (2 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 1 TFL, 3 pass breakups, 40 tackles) is a potentially great freshman CB. But none of these guys are rock-solid on every play--just occasionally--and that still leaves six positions on defense that aren't all that hot.
On Non-Passing Downs, basically every team Iowa State plays turns into the Missouri offense. A 53% success rate and 0.986 S&P are simply waaaaay too high. If he gets the carries (and if the weather's bad, he might), Derrick Washington could have a huge day.
Did I mention how huge turnovers are? Just checking.

On to the situational stats...

Mizzou	Opp.		ISU	Opp.
		Q1
57.9%	46.8%	Success Rate	41.9%	42.1%
0.56	0.28	PPP	0.36	0.36
1.137	0.747	S&P	0.782	0.783

		Q2
59.4%	39.9%	Success Rate	40.0%	55.6%
0.49	0.27	PPP	0.27	0.47
1.088	0.669	S&P	0.665	1.028

		Q3
55.6%	40.5%	Success Rate	41.5%	42.8%
0.54	0.37	PPP	0.31	0.48
1.096	0.771	S&P	0.725	0.909

		Q4
51.3%	40.5%	Success Rate	42.3%	54.8%
0.44	0.37	PPP	0.42	0.51
0.950	0.772	S&P	0.842	1.054

		1st Downs
58.2%	43.3%	Success Rate	45.6%	48.4%
0.55	0.33	PPP	0.34	0.43
1.130	0.764	S&P	0.796	0.912

		2nd Downs
57.2%	38.6%	Success Rate	38.9%	47.9%
0.47	0.31	PPP	0.33	0.44
1.039	0.700	S&P	0.716	0.922

		3rd Downs
50.9%	41.0%	Success Rate	34.3%	48.4%
0.51	0.28	PPP	0.35	0.50
1.015	0.694	S&P	0.697	0.982

Iowa State's defense is extra horrible in Q2 and Q4. That suggests that the game-planning and adjustments are there...but the talent and speed are not. Opponents are able to wear ISU down and make plays eventually.
ISU's offensive success rates are best on first down. If Mizzou allows Alexander Robinson to get some yards on first down, ISU could milk the clock and actually turn into a reasonably efficient offense. They still don't have any big playmakers, but Baylor was able to move the ball without too many big plays. The difference, of course, is that Mizzou was playing an umbrella defense to contain Hot Tub Griffin III. They'll likely be much more aggressive with a less mobile Arnaud in the backfield.
I reference this every week, I think, but the quarter-to-quarter and down-to-down consistency of the Missouri offense is impressive.
ISU probably won't move the ball in Q2. It's their worst offensive quarter, and it's the Mizzou defense's best quarter.

Key Players: Iowa State

RB Alexander Robinson

Two years ago, with a wind chill of 31 degrees, Iowa State played keep-away and punished Mizzou with a steady diet of the beefy Ryan Kock (32 carries, 179 yards). That, combined with the fact that about 18 Mizzou WRs/TEs got hurt that day and Chase Daniel was trying to lead a comeback throwing only to a sophomore Tommy Saunders and freshmen Danario Alexander and Jared Perry, all but sealed Missouri's fate*. At 5'10, 182 pounds, Robinson is quite clearly not built like Kock, but he had a great game against Missouri last year (21 carries, 149 yards--his success kept the game close and kept Pig Brown on the field late in Q4...when he injured his Achilles), and he's all-in-all a pretty solid sophomore running back. His 0.708 S&P isn't amazing, but a) it's improved in recent games, and b) it's infinitely better than Jason Scales' 0.654 or JJ Bass' 0.556. Scales is a more efficient back (40% success rate to Robinson's 38%), but barely. If ISU is going to successfully play keep-away again, it's on Robinson's shoulders.

* I will not mention the phantom hold. I will not mention the phantom hold. I will not mention the phantom hold.

WR RJ Sumrall

If Robinson isn't ISU's best chance at a big play, it's Sumrall, who like Scales, seems to have been at Iowa State for decades. His 0.912 PPP is by far the most explosive on the team (Sedrick Johnson's 0.763 is the only other one over 0.7...which is pretty bad). He's certainly experienced, and it's Senior Day, so it's quite possible Sumrall makes a big play or two in the passing game. If he doesn't, I can't see who will. Then again, he'll likely be getting the Carl Gettis Treatment, so maybe I should go with Johnson instead?

LB Fred Garrin

He and Leonard Johnson are as close to being a turnover machine as Gene Chizik has. If Mizzou has a costly turnover, chances are one of these two guys will be involved in it.

P Mike Brandtner

In a cold weather game, ISU has one other pathway to success: success in the field position battle. With wind a factor, he could (assuming he punts a lot--and he better) potentially pin Mizzou pretty deep in 2 of 4 quarters. What that will mean, among other things, is more opportunities for ISU's defense to hit Mizzou's skill position players and wear them out. You won't want to hit the ground too hard on Saturday--it's cold and hard--and if Mizzou starts their drives with long fields, they might score, but they might not have their legs about them as much later in the game.

Key Players: Missouri

QB Chase Daniel

It's easy, really. Chase rediscovers his mojo, Mizzou wins going away. He makes another few stupid throws, and ISU can make him pay, just like Baylor and Oklahoma State did (and just like KSU could have, had they had any sort of offensive success).

RB Derrick Washington

November's when Tony Temple started to turn it on during his career--a frigid, windy Jack Trice Stadium just screams "20-25 carries for Washington". If he goes "20 carries for 126 yards and 2-3 TDs," Mizzou wins easy. If it's more like "15 carries, 58 yards," then Chase will have to make a lot more windy throws.

FS William Moore

He's shown flashes of "Willy Mo '07" here and there, but the dude has cost himself some money with his play this year. He's only been solid, not amazing. But he's got 3-4 more games to remind Mizzou fans of what they thought they had in him for '08. He's still one of my favorite Mizzou players ever, but he's certainly had a disappointing season.

P Jake Harry

As always...the less we see of him, the bigger the winning margin. Love ya, Jake, but here's to hoping for another "1 punt, 41 yards" line from you.

Summary and Prediction

Monday's BTBS projections said Mizzou would take this one 39-23. Last week I combined the BTBS projections with the turnover averages and nailed the margin of victory...right up until Ron Prince pulled a Ron Prince and KSU got two junk TDs in the last two minutes. So we'll go with that. Taking what looks like about a 1-2 point ISU turnover advantage into account, we'll make that a nice and tidy 38-24 Mizzou win. With the wind and general misery of a Jack Trice Stadium encounter, this game could be closer than we'd like to think. I expect a closer game than a lot people, but I refuse to believe that Chase Daniel won't find a way to win this game, and probably comfortably. Mizzou clinches the North on Saturday.

Poll

What scares you most about MU-ISU?

RB Alexander Robinson

3 votes

ISU's ability to force turnovers

6 votes

BEWARE THE WINDS OF JACK TRICE STADIUM!!!

38 votes

Nothing

24 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Kurtis Taylor

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview - Iowa State

Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Mizzou

Opp.

ISU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

ISU

Opp.

Key Players: Iowa State

Key Players: Missouri

Summary and Prediction

What scares you most about MU-ISU?

RB Alexander Robinson

ISU's ability to force turnovers

BEWARE THE WINDS OF JACK TRICE STADIUM!!!

Nothing